Geopoli ics_G eenland_No dic_Council_2026 1
Apl. P o . D . D . K. Saalbach
Geos a egy and Geopoli ics
Depa men 1
49069 Osnab ueck
A c ic geopoli ics – ano he G eenland con lic in
he No dic Council
19 Janua y 2026
Summa y
This wo king pape p o ides a b ie o e iew o he G eenland con lic wi hin he No dic Council
and he cu en de elopmen s in he pa allel G eenland con lic wi h he Uni ed S a es. While he
in e na ional communi y ocuses on he ongoing con lic be ween he Uni ed S a es and Denma k
o e con ol o G eenland, ano he la gely unno iced con lic conce ning G eenland is cu en ly
aking place wi hin he No dic Council. This con lic , also cen e ed on G eenland's s a us, has
eached a c i ical s age wi h he now-planned e ision o he 1962 T ea y o Helsinki on coope a ion
be ween he Scandina ian s a es. As a esul , Denma k mus now de end he s a us quo in
G eenland simul aneously agains he Uni ed S a es and P esiden T ump on he one hand, and
wi hin he No dic Council on he o he , wi h he h ea o losing con ol o e G eenland looming in
bo h con lic s. In 2024, he Fa oe Islands and G eenland decla ed ha hey would no longe accep
hei exclusion om No dic summi s on o eign and secu i y policy, o which hey we e no in i ed,
and ha hey wished o become ull membe s. An ag eemen was eached o conduc a legal e iew
o he Helsinki T ea y and a e ision is planned in 2026. Howe e , a he end o 2025, he No dic
Council c ea ed a ai accompli by amending i s ules o p ocedu e, wi hou wai ing o he e ision
o he Helsinki T ea y. E ec i e Janua y 1, 2026, G eenland, he Fa oe Islands, and Åland became
equal membe s o he P esidium and now pa icipa e equally in all impo an decisions o he No dic
Council. Fu he mo e, hey we e o icially designa ed as ‘ h ee coun ies’. The e ision o he ea y
was decla ed a p io i y by he join p esidency o Denma k and he Fa oe Islands. The Fa oe Islands
wan o ans o m Denma k in o a con ede a ion o s a es, al hough he de ails (associa ion,
ede a ion, dominion, e c.) a e s ill unclea , bu he loss o Danish con ol o e G eenland is a e y
eal possibili y. Acco ding o he Wall S ee Jou nal, he in elligence coo dina o Tulsi Gabba d
ins uc ed he US in elligence agencies Cen al In elligence Agency (CIA), De ense In elligence
Agency (DIA), and Na ional Secu i y Agency (NSA) in May 2025 o in ensi y hei ga he ing o
in o ma ion on he G eenlandic independence mo emen , whe eupon Denma k summoned he US
ambassado . In mid-June 2025, he US s eng hened G eenland's mili a y ies by emo ing i om
he Eu opean Command (EUCOM) and in eg a ing i in o he No he n Command (NORTHCOM),
which se es homeland de ense. A s a egy pape was subsequen ly de eloped, ou lining a
concep o he in eg a ion and ans o ma ion o G eenland. Acco ding o he p oposal, G eenland
would be g an ed associa ed s a us (Associa ed Te i o y o he Uni ed S a es), which would gi e
G eenlande s he g ea es possible eedoms bu also allow he Uni ed S a es o ha e poli ical
in luence and he oppo uni y o a sys ema ic mode niza ion o ai , sea, and oad anspo , as well
as o he digi al in as uc u e. G eenland would hen o e on i s inal s a us a e app oxima ely 10
o 15 yea s. Fu he coope a ion wi hin NATO and wi h Denma k would be con inued. In addi ion,
he Uni ed S a es is u he expanding i s mili a y p esence: Denma k g an ed he US mili a y ee
access o h ee ai bases in Ka up, Sk yds up, and Aalbo g on he Danish mainland in 2025. The
o eign minis e s o Denma k and G eenland me in Washing on on Janua y 14, 2026, wi h Vice
P esiden JD Vance and Fo eign Minis e Ma co Rubio. Bo h sides main ained hei posi ions ("We
ag ee o disag ee") bu ag eed o o m a high-le el wo king g oup. Acco ding o he US, his g oup
will conduc echnical alks on he acquisi ion ag eemen o he U.S. o acqui e G eenland, while
he Danes assumed ha i will ocus on esol ing he di e ences. In summa y, Denma k is unde
in ense poli ical p essu e om wo sides simul aneously, and he loss o con ol o e G eenland is
a ealis ic possibili y.
Geopoli ics_G eenland_No dic_Council_2026 2
Con en
1 The G eenland Con lic in he No dic Council ...................................................................................... 3
1.1 In oduc ion ................................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 The Re ision o he T ea y o Helsinki ........................................................................................... 3
2 Recen De elopmen s in he Con lic wi h he Uni ed S a es .............................................................. 4
3 Summa y ............................................................................................................................................... 5
4 Li e a u e Re e ences ........................................................................................................................... 6
Geopoli ics_G eenland_No dic_Council_2026 3
1 The G eenland Con lic in he No dic Council
1.1 In oduc ion
This wo king pape p o ides a b ie o e iew o he G eenland con lic wi hin he No dic
Council and he cu en de elopmen s in he pa allel G eenland con lic wi h he Uni ed S a es.
While he in e na ional communi y ocuses on he ongoing con lic be ween he Uni ed S a es
and Denma k o e con ol o G eenland, ano he la gely unno iced con lic conce ning
G eenland is cu en ly aking place wi hin he No dic Council. This con lic , also cen e ed on
G eenland's s a us, has eached a c i ical s age wi h he now-planned e ision o he 1962 T ea y
o Helsinki on coope a ion be ween he Scandina ian s a es.
1.2 The Re ision o he T ea y o Helsinki
The Helsinki T ea y o 1962
1
is he legal basis o he No dic Coope a ion and he No dic
Council, he o icial body o No dic in e -pa liamen a y coope a ion be ween No way,
Sweden, Finland, Denma k, Iceland, and he sel -go e ned coun ies G eenland, he Fa oe
Islands, and he au onomous egion o Åland
2
. Wi hin he No dic Council o Minis e s as
pla o m in e -go e nmen al coope a ion, he Fa oe Islands, G eenland, and Åland a e also
ep esen ed, bu do no ha e o ing igh s
3
.
In 2024, he Fa oe Islands and G eenland s a ed ha hey will no longe accep exclusion om
No dic summi s on o eign and secu i y policy whe e hey we e no in i ed in 2024 and wan
o be ull membe s
4
. The Fa oe Islands h ea ened o exi he No dic Coope a ion: “We A e
ei he All in o No a All”
5
The ull membe s we e ini ially hesi an o g an a new s a us
6
, bu
ag eed on a legal e iew o he Helsinki T ea y, and a e ision is planned in 2026
7
.
Howe e , a he end o 2025, he No dic Council c ea ed a ai accompli by amending i s ules
o p ocedu e, wi hou wai ing o he e ision o he Helsinki T ea y. E ec i e Janua y 1, 2026,
G eenland, he Fa oe Islands, and Åland became equal membe s o he P esidium and now
pa icipa e equally in all impo an decisions o he No dic Council
8
. Fu he mo e, hey we e
o icially designa ed as h ee coun ies
9
. The e ision o he ea y was decla ed a p io i y by
he join p esidency o Denma k and he Fa oe Islands
10
.
The “ h ee in one” concep o Denma k and i s coun ies Fa oe Islands and G eenland is based
on he e m Rigs ællesskabe ha can be ansla ed as ‘Communi y o he Realm’ which indica es
legal equali y be ween he h ee s a es while he Danish go e nmen p e e s he e m ‘Uni y o
he Realm’
11
. The ac i i ies o he Fa oe Islands na u ally also a ec G eenland and a e
suppo ed by G eenland. Howe e , Denma k is ying o a oid hese deba es, as hey could
1
O icial ile o he No dic Council o Minis e s and No dic Council 2018
2
Åland is an au onomous and demili a ized a ea o Finland. The coope a ion is cu en ly egula ed in A icle 44
o he Helsinki T ea y as ollows: “A icle 44 I is in he No dic Council ha he popula ly elec ed assemblies o
he No dic coun ies and hose o he Fae oe Islands, G eenland and he Åland Islands, he Go e nmen s o he
No dic coun ies and he Home Rule Go e nmen s o he Fae oe Islands and G eenland and he Regional
Go e nmen o he Åland Islands co-ope a e.”
3
Ed a dsen 2025
4
Dam 2024, Ed a dsen 2024
5
Ed a dsen 2024
6
Dam 2024
7
Ed a dsen 2025
8
No dic Council 2025. The solu ion o he ques ion how h ee equal coun ies can simul aneously be a
subo dina e pa o o he equal coun ies will be in e es ing.
9
No dic Council 2025
10
No dic Council o Minis e s 2026
11
Denma k 2020
Geopoli ics_G eenland_No dic_Council_2026 4
ul ima ely lead o he dissolu ion o Denma k as a union s a e in o h ee s a es, which would
sh ink Denma k’s land a ea o 43,100 km²
12
.
Models unde discussion include ee associa ions o small island s a es like he New Zealand
model
13
, a ede a ion, he Ne he lands model o cons i u ional coun ies
14
, a Commonweal h,
o a Dominion cons uc whe e mainland Denma k would s ill be la ges ac o , bu only a pa
o legally equal and independen na ion s a es.
Ano he op ion is a ee associa ion. In G eenland, ee associa ion is being discussed as a
possible solu ion, like he a angemen p ac iced by some Paci ic Island s a es wi h he US,
which assumes de ense esponsibili ies bu in e u n has a e o igh on de ense policy (de ense
e o) and s a egic issues ( igh o s a egic denial)
15
. In he A c ic, his could e ec i ely block
Russia and China.
As a esul , Denma k mus now de end he s a us quo in G eenland simul aneously agains he
Uni ed S a es and P esiden T ump on he one hand, and wi hin he No dic Council on he o he
hand.
2 Recen De elopmen s in he Con lic wi h he Uni ed S a es
A he end o Ma ch 2025, US Vice P esiden J.D. Vance, Na ional Secu i y Ad iso Mike
Wal z, and Ene gy Sec e a y Ch is W igh made a b ie isi o he US mili a y base a Pi u ik
in G eenland, al hough no o icial mee ing wi h G eenlandic go e nmen ep esen a i es ook
place
16
. Acco ding o he Wall S ee Jou nal, he Di ec o o Na ional In elligence Tulsi
Gabba d ins uc ed in May 2025 he US in elligence agencies Cen al In elligence Agency
(CIA), De ense In elligence Agency (DIA), and Na ional Secu i y Agency (NSA) o in ensi y
hei collec ion o in o ma ion on he G eenlandic independence mo emen , whe eupon
Denma k summoned he US ambassado
17
.
Bu also Denma k ecognized he need o an in ensi e examina ion o G eenlandic eli es, and
in 2025 Danish esea che s p esen ed a comp ehensi e and de ailed s udy analyzing he
a ilia ions o 2,052 indi iduals wi h 3,412 posi ions in 456 ins i u ions. This s udy iden i ied a
co e g oup o 123 ne wo ked indi iduals in poli ics, adminis a ion, business, and academia
Vi ually all he poli icians had a close biog aphical connec ion o G eenland.
18
In mid-June 2025, he US s eng hened G eenland's mili a y ies by emo ing i om he
Eu opean Command (EUCOM) and in eg a ing i in o he No he n Command (NORTHCOM),
which se es homeland de ense.
19
A s a egy pape was subsequen ly de eloped, ou lining a
concep o he in eg a ion and ans o ma ion o G eenland. Acco ding o he p oposal,
G eenland would be g an ed associa ed s a us (Associa ed Te i o y o he Uni ed S a es), like
Pue o Rico's ini ial s a us
20
, which would gi e G eenlande s he g ea es possible eedoms bu
also allow he Uni ed S a es o ha e poli ical in luence and he oppo uni y o a sys ema ic
12
Tho wa h 2025
13
Pea ce 2025. The Cook Islands and Niue a e in ee associa ion wi h New Zealand wi h independen na ion
s a us, bu hey emain pa o New Zealand.
14
Auswä iges Am 2025. The Kingdom o The Ne he lands consis s o 4 cons i uen coun ies, he Ne he lands,
A uba, Cu acao, and Sin Ma een. All coun ies egula e hei domes ic a ai s on hei own, bu ac oge he i
a ai s o he en i e Kingdom a e conce ned.
15
Lam/Vaughn 2017, Ch is ensen 2024
16
Ha ding/Mu ay 2025
17
O’Rou ke e al., 2025
18
Si e sen e al. 2025
19
Robe son 2025
20
Pue o Rico la e gained Commonweal h s a us.
Geopoli ics_G eenland_No dic_Council_2026 5
mode niza ion o ai , sea, and oad anspo , as well as o he digi al in as uc u e.
21
.
G eenland would hen o e on i s inal s a us a e app oxima ely 10 o 15 yea s. Fu he
coope a ion wi hin NATO and wi h Denma k would be con inued.
22
.
In addi ion, he Uni ed S a es is u he expanding i s mili a y p esence: Denma k g an ed he
US mili a y ee access o h ee ai bases in Ka up, Sk yds up, and Aalbo g on he Danish
mainland in 2025 and accep ed ha Ame ican, a he han Danish, law applies unde he
ag eemen
23
.
Meanwhile, Denma k is in ensi ying coope a ion among all ac o s. In he new 2024–2033
De ence Ag eemen , he Danish Minis y o De ence aims o close coope a ion. In elligence
b ie ings be ween he Danish De ence In elligence Se ice (DDIS) and he Fa oe Islands and
G eenland will be in ensi ied
24
.
In Decembe 2025, he Danish in elligence se ice publicly wa ned o a po en ial mili a y h ea
o G eenland om Donald T ump, who, a e a longe pause, e i ed he G eenland issue a he
end o 2025
25
. A he end o Decembe , a US Special Rep esen a i e o G eenland was
appoin ed: Louisiana’s
26
Go e no Je Land y, who decla ed he acquisi ion o G eenland by
he Uni ed S a es as his goal.
27
The o eign minis e s o Denma k and G eenland, La s Løkke Rasmussen and Vi ian
Mo z eld , me in Washing on on Janua y 14, 2026, wi h Vice P esiden JD Vance and Fo eign
Minis e Ma co Rubio
28
. Bo h sides main ained hei posi ions ("We ag ee o disag ee") bu
ag eed o o m a high-le el wo king g oup
29
, which, acco ding o US s a emen s, is in ended o
conduc “ echnical alks on he acquisi ion ag eemen ” o he U.S. o acqui e G eenland
30
,
while he Danes assumed i was in ended o esol e he di e ences.
Se e al Eu opean coun ies, including F ance, Ge many, G ea B i ain, No way, Sweden, and
he Ne he lands, sen a small g oup o soldie s o assess he si ua ion in G eenland as a sign o
solida i y wi h Denma k
31
, p omp ing US P esiden T ump o h ea en a i s
32
.
3 Summa y
This wo king pape p o ided a b ie o e iew o he G eenland con lic wi hin he No dic
Council and he cu en de elopmen s in he pa allel G eenland con lic wi h he Uni ed S a es.
While he in e na ional communi y ocuses on he ongoing con lic be ween he Uni ed S a es
and Denma k o e con ol o G eenland, ano he la gely unno iced con lic conce ning
G eenland is cu en ly aking place wi hin he No dic Council. This con lic , also cen e ed on
G eenland's s a us, has eached a c i ical s age wi h he now-planned e ision o he 1962 T ea y
o Helsinki on coope a ion be ween he Scandina ian s a es. As a esul , Denma k mus now
de end he s a us quo in G eenland simul aneously agains he Uni ed S a es and P esiden
T ump on he one hand, and wi hin he No dic Council on he o he , wi h he h ea o losing
21
Gunaseka a-Rockwell 2025
22
Gunaseka a-Rockwell 2025
23
Gunaseka a-Rockwell 2025
24
Danish Minis y o De ence 2025
25
Associa ed P ess 2025
26
This has also a symbolic dimension. O iginally, Louisiana was a F ench colony which was much la ge han
he mode n ede al s a e and was sold om F ance o he Uni ed S a es in 1803.
27
Tamsu /Shel on 2025
28
Beigang 2026
29
Tagesschau online 15 Jan 2026
30
Bu ows e al. 2026
31
Bu ows e al. 2026
32
Bi nbaum/Tucke 2026

Geopoli ics_G eenland_No dic_Council_2026 6
con ol o e G eenland looming in bo h con lic s. In 2024, he Fa oe Islands and G eenland
decla ed ha hey would no longe accep hei exclusion om No dic summi s on o eign and
secu i y policy, o which hey we e no in i ed, and ha hey wished o become ull membe s.
An ag eemen was eached o conduc a legal e iew o he Helsinki T ea y and a e ision is
planned in 2026. Howe e , a he end o 2025, he No dic Council c ea ed a ai accompli by
amending i s ules o p ocedu e, wi hou wai ing o he e ision o he Helsinki T ea y.
E ec i e Janua y 1, 2026, G eenland, he Fa oe Islands, and Åland became equal membe s o
he P esidium and now pa icipa e equally in all impo an decisions o he No dic Council.
Fu he mo e, hey we e o icially designa ed as h ee coun ies. The e ision o he ea y was
decla ed a p io i y by he join p esidency o Denma k and he Fa oe Islands. The Fa oe Islands
wan o ans o m Denma k in o a con ede a ion o s a es, al hough he de ails (associa ion,
ede a ion, dominion, e c.) a e s ill unclea , bu he loss o Danish con ol o e G eenland is a
e y eal possibili y. Acco ding o he Wall S ee Jou nal, in elligence coo dina o Tulsi
Gabba d ins uc ed he US in elligence agencies Cen al In elligence Agency (CIA), De ense
In elligence Agency (DIA), and Na ional Secu i y Agency (NSA) in May 2025 o in ensi y hei
ga he ing o in o ma ion on he G eenlandic independence mo emen , whe eupon Denma k
summoned he US ambassado . In mid-June 2025, he US s eng hened G eenland's mili a y
ies by emo ing i om he Eu opean Command (EUCOM) and in eg a ing i in o he No he n
Command (NORTHCOM), which se es homeland de ense. A s a egy pape was subsequen ly
de eloped, ou lining a concep o he in eg a ion and ans o ma ion o G eenland. Acco ding
o he p oposal, G eenland would be g an ed associa ed s a us (Associa ed Te i o y o he
Uni ed S a es), which would gi e G eenlande s he g ea es possible eedoms bu also allow
he Uni ed S a es o ha e poli ical in luence and he oppo uni y o a sys ema ic mode niza ion
o ai , sea, and oad anspo , as well as o he digi al in as uc u e. G eenland would hen o e
on i s inal s a us a e app oxima ely 10 o 15 yea s. Fu he coope a ion wi hin NATO and
wi h Denma k would be con inued. In addi ion, he Uni ed S a es is u he expanding i s
mili a y p esence: Denma k g an ed he US mili a y ee access o h ee ai bases in Ka up,
Sk yds up, and Aalbo g on he Danish mainland in 2025. The o eign minis e s o Denma k
and G eenland me in Washing on on Janua y 14, 2026, wi h Vice P esiden JD Vance and
Fo eign Minis e Ma co Rubio. Bo h sides main ained hei posi ions ("We ag ee o disag ee")
bu ag eed o o m a high-le el wo king g oup. Acco ding o he US, his g oup will conduc
echnical alks on he acquisi ion ag eemen o he U.S. o acqui e G eenland, while he Danes
assumed i will ocus on esol ing he di e ences. In summa y, Denma k is unde in ense
poli ical p essu e om wo sides simul aneously, and he loss o con ol o e G eenland is a
ealis ic possibili y.
4 Li e a u e Re e ences
Associa ed P ess (2025): Danish In elligence Repo Wa ns o US Mili a y Th ea Unde
T ump Published Decembe 12, 2025 by Mili a y.com
Auswä iges Am (2025): Niede lande: Poli isches Po ä 11.03.2025
Beigang, M. (2026): US-Vize emp äng Außenminis e : Heu e könn e sich im Weißen Haus
die Zukun G önlands en scheiden. Tagesspiegel 14 Janua y 2026
Bi nbaum, M., Tucke , B. (2026): T ump announces a i s on Eu opean coun ies opposing
G eenland akeo e . Washing on Pos online Las upda e 18 Janua y 2026
Bu ows, E. e al. (2026): Eu opean oops a i e in G eenland as alks wi h US highligh
‘disag eemen ’ o e island’s u u e. Associa ed P ess online 15 Janua y 2026
B yan , M. (2025): Denma k app o es US mili a y bases on Danish soil as T ump eyes
G eenland. The Gua dian. h ps://www. hegua dian.com/wo ld/2025/jun/11/denma k- o e-
de ence-bill-us-ai bases
Geopoli ics_G eenland_No dic_Council_2026 7
Ch is ensen, J.T. (2024): G eenland ge s i s own s a egy o o eign, secu i y and de ence
policy: No hing abou us, wi hou us. Canadian Global A ai s Ins i u e.
h ps://asse s.na ionbuilde .com/cd ai/pages/5625/a achmen s/o iginal/1719270426/G eenlan
d_ge s_i s_own_S a egy_ o _Fo eign_Secu i y_and_De ence_Policy_No hing_abou _us_wi
hou _us.pd ?1719270426.
Dam, R.W. (2024): Fa oese independence is suddenly back on he able - No dic Labou
Jou nal Ap il 29, 2024
Danish Minis y o De ence (2025): Fac Shee : Fi s ag eemen on he A c ic and No h
A lan ic Unde he 2024-2033 De ence Ag eemen
Denma k (2020): The P ime Minis e 's O ice Depa men al esponsibili ies: The uni y o he
Realm h ps://web.a chi e.o g/web/20200801120418/h ps://www.s m.dk/_a_2752.h ml
Ed a dsen, A. (2025): Suppo o Independen Membe ship o G eenland and he Fa oe
Islands in No dic Coope a ion. High No h News Upda ed a 02 May 2025
G eenland (2024): G eenland in he wo ld – No hing abou us wi hou us.
h ps://paa oq.gl/wp-con en /uploads/2024/03/G eenlands_Fo eign_-
Secu i y_and_De ense_Policy_2024_2033.pd
Gunaseka a-Rockwell, E. (2025): NORTHCOM P oposal o US–G eenland In eg a ion A
Pa h o he Fu u e In. S a egic Ho izons, Fall 2025, page 270-285 A ailable on he websi e o
he Depa men o Wa media.de ense.go
Ha ding, A., Mu ay, A. (2025): Vance scolds Denma k du ing G eenland ip. BBC News
h ps://www.bbc.com/news./a icles/c 525e49m2do
Lum, T., Vaughn, B. (2017): The Paci ic Islands: Policy issues. Cong essional Resea ch
Se ice. h ps://sgp. as.o g/c s/ ow/R44753.pd .
No dic Council (2025): No dic Council e o m: G eenland, he Fa oe Islands and Åland join
he P esidium. No dic Council News
No dic Council o Minis e s (2026): Denma k and he Fa oe Islands ake o e p esidency o
No dic Council o Minis e s 01.01.26 News
No dic Council o Minis e s and No dic Council (2018): The Helsinki T ea y - T ea y o Co-
ope a ion be ween Denma k, Finland, Iceland, No way and Sweden. O icial PDF File om
2018 ISBN 978-92-893-5833-0 (PDF) h p://dx.doi.o g/10.6027/ANP2018-746
O’Rou ke, R. e al. (2025): Changes in he A c ic: Backg ound and issues o cong ess.
Cong essional Resea ch Se ice. h ps://c s epo s.cong ess.go /p oduc /pd /R/R41153
Øs e gaa d, M. e al. (2023): F ee associa ion in a G eenlandic con ex . Nasi ik Wo king
Pape
Robe son, N. (2025): Pen agon shi s G eenland o US No he n Command in shakeup.
De ense News. h ps://www.de ensenews.com/pen agon/2025/06/17/pen agon-shi s-
g eenland- o-us-no he n-command-in-shakeup/
Si e sen, M.F. e al. (2025): The Powe Eli e in G eenland B i ish Jou nal o Sociology,
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