Russians in the South Caucasus: Political Attitudes and the War in Ukraine

RUSSIANS IN THE
SOUTH CAUCASUS:
POLITICAL ATTITUDES AND
THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Félix K awa zek, Isabelle DeSis o and Geo ge So oka
ZOiS REPORT
No.2 / 2023 · May 2023
H
RUSSIANS IN THE
SOUTH CAUCASUS:
POLITICAL ATTITUDES AND
THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Félix K awa zek, Isabelle DeSis o and Geo ge So oka
ZOiS REPORT
No.2 / 2023 · May 2023
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
2
Con en
02 ___ Summa y
04 ___ In oduc ion
05 ___ Russians in Geo gia and A menia: Insigh s in o he sample
05 ______ Compa ing he p o iles o esponden s
08 ______ Timing and easons o mig a ion
10 ______ Sha ed challenges while ab oad
11 ______ Su eying Russians ab oad: Me hodological no e
12 ___ A menia: A des ina ion o poli ically ac i e young Russians
12 ______ P og essi e young u bani es wi h libe al social alues
13 ______ Poli ical engagemen in Russia and A menia
17 ______ Highly c i ical abou Russian poli ics
18 ______ Waning in e es in Russia’s wa in Uk aine
19 ______ In e na ional poli ical ac o s: Unce ain y amids posi i e a ings
20 ___ Geo gia: Families and mo e quali ied opposi ion o he Russian egime
20 ______ Social alues in line wi h he a e age young Russian
21 ______ Pe iodic poli ical engagemen in Russia and Geo gia
24 ______ Gene ally c i ical o Russian poli ics
25 ______ Pe sis en ly high le el o in e es in Russia’s wa in Uk aine
26 ______ O e all app o al o in e na ional poli ical ac o s
27 ___ Conclusion
28 ___ Imp in
Summa y
Following he ull-scale in asion o Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022, nume ous Rus-
sians decided o lea e hei coun y. Geo gia and A menia we e among he
mos popula des ina ions o Russian mig an s, ei he as a empo a y s opo e
o o mo e pe manen eloca ion. Young u bani es wi h highe educa ion a e
disp opo iona ely ep esen ed in his wa e o mig a ion, which has signi ican
implica ions o he Russian labou ma ke . The poli ical consequences o he
associa ed demog aphic changes emain unce ain — on he one hand, he Rus-
sian egime has exiled some o i s mos ocal c i ics; on he o he , he compa a-
i ely libe al en i onmen s in hei hos coun ies migh allow exiles o connec
wi h one o he and moun a challenge o he Pu in egime.
Bo h A menia and Geo gia a e eadily accessible o mig an s, who can emain
he e de ac o inde ini ely. None heless, condi ions o newly a i ed Russians
di e signi ican ly be ween hese coun ies. A menia emains socially and po-
li ically close o Russia, whe eas public c i icism o he Russian go e nmen
and Russian socie y is mo e angible in Geo gia.
We conduc ed a ace- o- ace su ey in bo h coun ies in la e 2022 among a o-
al o mo e han 1,600 esponden s. Al hough ou sample is no andom and
he e o e does no ep esen he expe iences and a i udes o all ecen Russian
mig an s in A menia and Geo gia, ou indings illumina e impo an pa e ns
bo h wi hin and ac oss coun ies. The key indings a e as ollows:
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
3
– Young esponden s om ci ies domina e he samples, wi h indi iduals om
Moscow and S . Pe e sbu g especially o e ep esen ed.
– Hal o ou samples in bo h coun ies ha e no ye decided o how long
hey ha e le Russia. This poin s o he p o ound unce ain y his popula ion
aces. Howe e , he sha e o hose who see a long- e m u u e o hemsel es
ou side o Russia is conside ably highe in A menia han in Geo gia: 20 % o
Russians in e iewed in A menia say hey ha e le Russia o e e , while
only 12 % o hose in e iewed in Geo gia say he same. In line wi h hei
sense o a mo e pe manen depa u e om Russia, esponden s in A menia
a e mo e likely o s a e ha hey no longe eel esponsible o Russia’s po-
li ical u u e (27 %), while only 19 % o hose in Geo gia eel he same way.
– Adjus ing o he hos coun y can be ex emely challenging. Responden s
equen ly say hey ha e expe ienced di icul ies ha a e bo h psychological
and ma e ial — such as ouble inding a place o li e o a job.
– Russians in e iewed in A menia we e mo e poli ically ac i e p io o hei
emig a ion, bo h in e ms o news consump ion and pa icipa ion in poli i-
cal o ci ic ac i i ies, such as olun ee ing, dona ing o NGOs o o ganising
cul u al e en s. Responden s in A menia we e also mo e likely o epo ha
hey had pa icipa ed in p o es e en s agains he wa in Uk aine while s ill
li ing in Russia (26 % in A menia e sus 11 % in Geo gia).
– Le els o poli ical ac i ism in he hos coun y a e signi ican ly highe among
ou sample in A menia. The Russians we in e iewed in A menia discuss
poli ics wi h iends and amily membe s mo e equen ly and a e also mo e
likely o consume news online and engage in poli ical discussions on social
media han hei coun e pa s in Geo gia. They ha e also o ged s onge
connec ions wi h o he mig an s om Russia. Howe e , esponden s in bo h
coun ies seldom engage in olun ee ac i i ies o pa icipa e in p o es s un-
ela ed o he wa in Uk aine.
– Mig an s’ iews on Russian ins i u ions a e o e whelmingly nega i e, pa -
icula ly among hose in e iewed in A menia. By con as , a ound 66 %
o esponden s in A menia ga e a posi i e a ing o Uk aine’s p esiden ,
Volodymy Zelenskyi bu only 46% in Geo gia. A i udes o NATO, he EU,
and Wes e n media a e also la gely posi i e.
– Responden s clea ly a ibu e esponsibili y o he wa o Russian au ho i-
ies. In A menia, h ee-qua e s o esponden s blame Russian au ho i ies;
in Geo gia, he igu e is nea ly wo- hi ds. Responden s in Geo gia con inue
o moni o he p og ess o he wa mo e closely: o e hal said hey ollowed
he wa ‘ e y closely’, compa ed o jus o e 40 % in A menia.
– Russian mig an s in Geo gia and A menia ha e subs an ially mo e libe al
social a i udes compa ed o he gene al Russian popula ion. This di e ence
is pa icula ly p onounced wi h ega d o ole ance o same-sex ela ions.

ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
4
In oduc ion
Emig a ion om Russia in he a e ma h o Russia’s ull-scale in asion o
Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022 occu ed on a scale unp eceden ed since he Bol-
she ik Re olu ion o 1917.1 E en i p ecise numbe s a e ha d o come by,
a leas wo ‘peaks’ o mig a ion a e e iden : one in he ini ial weeks a -
e he in asion, which las ed h ough he summe , and ano he ollowing
P esiden Vladimi Pu in’s decla a ion o a ‘pa ial mobilisa ion’ on 21 Sep-
embe 2022. The o al numbe o mig an s is well o e 500,000, wi h some
media epo s claiming ha i may be close o one million.2
Ea lie mig an s we e p edominan ly young u bani es — bo h men and
women — who we e on a e age be e educa ed and mo e a luen han he
Russian popula ion as a whole. The pos -mobilisa ion mig an s, meanwhile,
we e disp opo iona ely mili a y-age men ying o escape consc ip ion.
Pos -So ie coun ies in he Sou h Caucasus and Cen al Asia became popu-
la des ina ions o hose leeing Russia, alongside coun ies like Tu key,
B azil, and Thailand.
The mo i es unde lying indi idual decisions o emig a e a ied, and indi-
iduals o en le o a combina ion o easons. Fo some, poli ical ep es-
sion and he K emlin’s escala ion o he wa in Uk aine we e he p ima y
mo i a ing ac o s; o he s wan ed o a oid mili a y se ice o wo ied abou
hei economic p ospec s.
This epo ocuses on he si ua ion o Russians in A menia and Geo gia.
Bo h coun ies we e pa icula ly a ac i e o hose li ing in he Wes e n
pa o Russia, as hey a e geog aphically p oxima e and can be en e ed
wi hou a isa. A menia does no e en equi e an in e na ional passpo o
en y, and egula ligh s om Russia make he coun y accessible. Geo gia
sha es a land bo de wi h Russia, allowing mig an s o b ing hei ehicles
and a leas some o hei belongings wi h hem. Fo hose in en on lea ing
Russia, hese coun ies se ed as eady and ela i ely inexpensi e des ina-
ions and, a leas o a sub-se o mig an s, con enien ansi poin s om
which o mo e o hi d coun ies. Mo eo e , Russians can s ay in bo h coun-
ies de ac o inde ini ely — in A menia a e o icial egis a ion o hei
place o esidence, and in Geo gia p o ided hey exi and e-en e he coun-
y a leas once a yea .3
1 Weg a e ullyacknowledge he inancialsuppo  o  hisp ojec  ecei ed om heF ied ich
Ebe Founda ion, heHa a dUk ainianResea chIns i u e(HURI), heDa isCen e o Rus-
sianandEu asianS udiesa Ha a d,andHa a d’sMindadeGunzbu gCen e o Eu opean
S udies.Many hanksgo oVa a aIlyinaandDmi yRudenkin o  esea chassis ance.We
wouldalsolike oacknowledgeT a isF ede ick’sinpu indesigninganea lie  e siono  he
su ey.
2 TheBella i esa hal amillionmig an sby heendo 2022‘Skol’ko ossiyan 2022godu
uyekhaloizs anyine e nulos’’,30Decembe 2022,h ps:// hebell.io/skolko- ossiyan- -
2022-godu-uekhalo-iz-s any-i-ne- e nulos,whe eas heWashing onPos claims ha  henum-
be islikely obeonemilliona  heuppe endo  hescale:‘Russiansabandonwa imeRussia
inhis o icexodus’,13Feb ua y2023,h ps://www.washing onpos .com/wo ld/2023/02/13/
ussia-diaspo a-wa -uk aine/. Fo besRussiahas epo ed ha some700,000 ledRussiaa e 
Pu in’sannouncemen o ‘pa ialmobilisa ion’alone, hough heK emlinhasdispu ed his
igu e‘Rossiyuposle21sen yab yapokinuliokolo700000g azhdan’,4Oc obe 2022,h ps://
www. o bes. u/socie y/478827- ossiu-posle-21-sen ab a-pokinuli-okolo-700-000-g azdan.
3 Fo  heen y equi emen s,see‘Visa equi emen s o  o eigne s’,h ps://www.m a.am/en/ isa
[las accessed11Ap il2023]aswellas‘Geo gian isain o ma ion’,h ps://www.geoconsul.go .
ge/H mlPage/H ml/View?id=956&lang=Eng[las accessed11Ap il2023].
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
 5
Socio-poli ical con ex s, howe e , di e ma kedly be ween A menia and
Geo gia. A menians use he Russian language a mo e o en han Geo -
gians and he a mosphe e o Russians ends o be mo e welcoming. Ye e an
main ains be e ela ions wi h Moscow han Tbilisi, making i a less hospi-
able des ina ion o he mos poli ically ac i e dissiden s. A he same ime,
i has been widely epo ed ha Geo gians ha e been less welcoming o he
Russian newcome s, whom some see as ailing o assimila e in o socie y and
d i ing up eal es a e p ices.
The mass emig a ion a e Feb ua y 2022 will ha e majo demog aphic,
economic, and poli ical consequences o Russia. On he economic on ,
hese consequences a e al eady pe cep ible. In la e Decembe 2022, Russia’s
Minis y o Digi al De elopmen , Communica ions and Mass Media epo ed
ha ‘10 % o he coun y’s IT wo ke s had le in 2022 and no e u ned’.4
Howe e , gi en ha a sha e o hese wo ke s can con inue o do hei jobs
emo ely, a leas o he ime being, hei depa u e may ha e caused less
economic dis up ion han would be he case o o he ypes o wo ke s. The
poli ical epe cussions a e less clea . On he one hand, he Pu in egime has
e ec i ely exiled some o i s mos ocal c i ics; on he o he hand, poli ical
ac i is s ope a ing om ou side Russia now ha e mo e eedom o connec
wi h each o he and c i icise he Russian go e nmen . Thus, while he con-
sequences o his mig a ion a e al eady being el in Russia, i is impossible
o p edic i s ull impac .
Russians in Geo gia and A menia:
Insigh s in o he sample
Compa ing he p o iles o esponden s
We designed and ielded ace- o- ace su eys o Russian ci izens li ing in
Geo gia (Tbilisi and Ba umi) and A menia (Ye e an). These h ee ci ies a e
known o be he mos popula des ina ions in hese coun ies o hose who
ha e ecen ly le Russia. In e iews ook place be ween la e No embe 2022
and ea ly Janua y 2023. Eligibili y was based on Russian ci izenship, a h-
e han language, o a oid sampling Russian-speaking esponden s om
Uk aine, Bela us, o elsewhe e. A he end o he su ey, in e iewe s we e
asked o assess he demeanou o each esponden ; mos indica ed ha sub-
jec s el ei he absolu ely a ease o mos ly com o able. The leng h o he
in e iews is indica i e o a gene ally high le el o com o . The a e age
in e iew in A menia las ed 16 minu es, wi h he sho es being six minu es
and he longes o e 90 minu es. In Geo gia, meanwhile, he a e age in e -
iew las ed 12 minu es, while he longes an o nea ly wo hou s.
We su eyed 853 esponden s in Geo gia (60 % in Tbilisi and 40 % in Ba umi)
and 801 in A menia’s capi al Ye e an. The wo samples di e subs an ially
om he o e all Russian popula ion in hei demog aphic composi ion. The
4 ‘Russiansabandonwa imeRussiainhis o icexodus’,13Feb ua y2023,h ps://www.washing-
onpos .com/wo ld/2023/02/13/ ussia-diaspo a-wa -uk aine/.
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
6
a e age age o esponden s in ou sample is signi ican ly lowe and men a e
o e ep esen ed compa ed o he Russian popula ion a la ge ( TABLE1). We
also obse e a no iceable di e ence in ma i al s a us be ween he samples:
in Geo gia, a ound 58 % o esponden s s a ed ha hey we e ei he ma ied
o in a ci il pa ne ship, whe eas in A menia his igu e was only 45 %. This
di e ence is e lec ed in amily composi ion: while one- hi d o espond-
en s in Geo gia s a ed ha hey ha e child en, less han 15 % o hose in
A menia ha e child en.
The sociodemog aphic di e ences sugges ha Geo gia is a mo e a ac i e
des ina ion o olde esponden s wi h amilies, as many Russians pe cei e he
quali y o li e he e as highe . A menia, by con as , is mo e popula among
younge Russians wi h mo e limi ed esou ces ( FIGURE1).5 Ne e heless, he
ac ual cos s o li ing in he wo coun ies a e ai ly simila i we look a indica-
o s such as en al p ices o g oce ies, and he wo coun ies’ GDP pe capi a
is compa able. Bo h ha e also expe ienced high economic g ow h in he las
yea , aided by he in low o economically ac i e young Russians.6
5 Ma iaKuzne so a,aspokeswoman o  heRussianhuman igh sg oupOVD-In o,whoisbased
inTbilisi,Geo gia.In eali y, hep e-wa cos o li ingdoesno appea  odi e subs an ially
ac oss he wocoun ies:‘Kudapoyekha ’— G uziyuiliA meniyu’,13Ma ch2020,h ps://
www.skyscanne . u/news/kuda-luchshe-poekha -g uzia-ili-a menia-s a nenie.
6 IMF,‘P essReleaseNo.22/374’,7No embe 2022,h ps://www.im .o g/en/News/A i-
cles/2022/11/06/p 22374-Geo gia-IMF-Reaches-S a -Le el-Ag eemen -Fi s -Re iew-Geo gia-
S and-By-A angemen andIMF,‘P essReleaseNo.22/77’,17Ma ch2022,h ps://www.im .
o g/en/News/A icles/2022/03/16/p 2277-a menia-im - eaches-s a -le el-ag eemen -six h-
e iew-s and-by-a angemen .
A menia Geo gia Russia
(2010Censusda a)
Gende
Female 34.80 % 39.70 % 53.80 %
Male 65.20 % 60.30 % 46.20 %
Age A e ageage 30.1 32.6 39
Se le-
men
size
Ci ywi hpopula ion>1million 86.30 % 81.40 % 19.75 %
Ci yo 500k o1millioninhabi an s 4.50 % 9.80 % 11.03 %
Ci yo 250k o500kinhabi an s 4.70 % 4.90 % 8.50 %
Ci yo 100k o250kinhabi an s 1.10 % 1.60 % 9.87 %
Se lemen wi hapopula ion<100k 2.50 % 1.40 % 50.84 %
Place o
esidence
Moscow 54.10 % 31.10 % 8.01 %
S .Pe e sbu g 19.40 % 16.90 % 3.42 %
Sou ce: ‘Vse ossiyskoy pe episi naseleniya 2010 goda’, No. 491 – 492, 19 – 31 Decembe 2011, h p://www.demoscope. u/weekly/2011/0491/pe ep01.php
as well as ‘Vse ossiyskaya pe epis’ naseleniya 2010’, h ps://gks. u/ ee_doc/new_si e/pe epis2010/c oc/pe epis_i ogi1612.h m [las accessed 11 Ap il 2023].
TABLE 1
Demog aphic composi ion
Sampleso  hesu eycompa ed o heo e allRussianpopula ion
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
 7
The le el o educa ion among esponden s is highe han ha o he Rus-
sian popula ion o e all. In bo h Geo gia and A menia, he sha e o espond-
en s who ha e comple ed highe educa ion (including specialis aining o
deg ees a he bachelo ’s, mas e ’s, o doc o al le el) is o e 70 %. Acco d-
ing o OECD da a om 2019, he sha e o Russians be ween 25 and 34 yea s
old wi h e ia y educa ion was 63 %.7 I we es ic ou sample o ha age
ange, we ind ha 79 % o esponden s ha e highe educa ion c eden ials.
The as majo i y o esponden s in bo h coun ies (o e wo- hi ds) wo ked
ull- ime be o e lea ing Russia. Smalle sha es we e wo king pa - ime,
s udying, o ca ing o a amily membe . Only a ound 3 % o esponden s
in A menia and 7 % in Geo gia we e unemployed p io o hei depa u e.
Consis en wi h nume ous media epo s abou he disp opo iona e ou -
low o wo ke s in he in o ma ion echnology sec o , a sizeable sha e o
esponden s in bo h coun ies we e employed in IT: 27 % in Geo gia and 37 %
in A menia.
While only indi iduals wi h Russian ci izenship we e eligible o pa icipa e
in ou su ey, we do obse e a ia ion in esponden s’ e hnici ies. Those
who sel -iden i y as e hnic Russians make up a ound 89 % o he sample in
Geo gia, whe eas his sha e is subs an ially lowe in A menia (69 %). In he
la e sample, a ound 8 % o esponden s a e Russian ci izens bu ha e now
e u ned o A menia and see hemsel es i s and o emos as A menians.
Responden s also iden i y wi h o he na ional g oups ound in Russia, such
as Ta a s, Ing ians, Osse ians, and Komi.
7 ‘Educa iona aGlance:OECDIndica o s’,2019,h ps://www.oecd.o g/educa ion/educa ion-a -
a-glance/EAG2019_CN_RUS.pd .
21.5%
58.6%
18.0%
2.0%
20.9%
47.2%
23.4%
8.4%
18–24
25–34
35–49
50+
A menia Geo gia
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o Russians in Geo gia (853) and
A menia (801), 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
FIGURE1
How old a e you?
СколькоВамлет?
A menia
Geo gia
The sha e o espond-
en s who ha e
comple ed highe
educa ion is o e 70 %.
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
14
sample. While eliable numbe s conce ning how many Russians ha e ac u-
ally aken pa in a p o es e en a e una ailable, a 2021 Le ada Cen e poll
ound ha only 17 % o esponden s would en e ain he idea o pa icipa -
ing in a mass poli ical p o es ; we can assume ha a a lowe pe cen age
has ac ually done so. These da a indica e ha he popula ion we su eyed is
a mo e mobilised han mos Russians.15
Among esponden s in A menia, highe educa ion, being a woman, and ha -
ing le Russia be o e he decla a ion o he pa ial mobilisa ion a e all as-
socia ed wi h mo e equen pa icipa ion in poli ical and ci ic ac i i ies.
Simila ly, hose wi hou child en pa icipa ed in poli ical and ci ic ac i i-
ies back in Russia mo e o en han hose who ha e child en. Mo e educa ed
esponden s we e mo e likely o ha e engaged in poli ical discussions wi h
iends and amily, and men ended o discuss poli ics mo e equen ly han
women.
When asked abou hei pa icipa ion in demons a ions ela ed o Russia’s
wa in Uk aine, 26 % o esponden s in A menia said hey had joined a p o-
Uk aine demons a ion while li ing in Russia ( FIGURE7). As documen ed by
he human igh s o ganisa ion OVD-In o, Russian au ho i ies ha e espond-
ed ha shly o such p o es s, wi h nea ly 15,000 people a es ed ac oss he
coun y du ing he i s weeks o he wa alone.16 The le el o pa icipa ion
15 ‘P o es nyyenas oyeniya’,10Decembe 2021,h ps://www.le ada. u/2021/12/10/p o es nye-
nas oeniya-3/
16 ‘Ne  oyne’,14Ma ch2022,h ps:// epo s.o din o.o g/no- o-wa .
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 801 Russians in A menia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
17.5%
82.5%
0.1%
25.7%
74.2%
Yes, in suppo o Russia
Yes, in suppo o Uk ainе
No, I ha e no aken pa in
such ac ions
While in Geo gia/A menia While in Russia
17.5%
82.5%
0.1%
25.7%
74.2%
Yes, in suppo o Russia
Yes, in suppo o Uk ainе
No, I ha e no aken pa in
such ac ions
While in Geo gia/A menia While in Russia
FIGURE7
A menia: Ha e you aken pa in demons a ions in suppo o o agains
he wa (Russia’s ‘special mili a y ope a ion’)?
ПринималилиВыучастиевакцияхвподдержкуилипротиввойны
(специальнойвоеннойоперацииРоссии)?
WhileinA menia
WhileinRussia
26 % o esponden s in
A menia said hey had
joined a p o-Uk aine
demons a ion while
li ing in Russia.

ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
 15
in p o-Uk aine demons a ions in A menia is lowe — s ill, i s e y exis -
ence sugges s ha Russians in A menia a e well connec ed wi h one ano h-
e , pa icula ly hose we in e iewed in Ye e an.
Those mos likely o say ha hey pa icipa ed in a p o-Uk aine demons a-
ion in Russia o A menia we e younge , emale, well-educa ed and li ed
in Moscow o S . Pe e sbu g. They we e also mo e likely o ha e le be o e
Sep embe 2022. Indeed, hose who le be ween Janua y and Sep embe
2022 we e nea ly h ee imes as likely o ha e pa icipa ed in wa - ela ed
p o es s in A menia as hose who le a e wa ds, and women we e wice as
likely as men o ha e done so. While his poin s o he mo e poli ical na u e
o he i s wa e o emig a ion, i also sugges s ha ime in he hos coun y
enables mig an s o ne wo k wi h one ano he , o ming a basis o hei po-
li ical ac i ism.
We also asked a se o ques ions abou he u u e o poli ics in Russia. A
plu ali y (38 %) o esponden s in A menia said hey do eel pe sonal espon-
sibili y o Russia’s poli ical u u e. A ema kably la ge sha e o he A me-
nian sample (27 %) s a ed ha hey used o eel esponsible bu no longe
do ( FIGURE8). Gi en ha he A menian sample is composed o many young
and poli ically ac i e Russians, his igu e indica es a s ong sense o disillu-
sionmen wi h Russian poli ics. I also sugges s ha he longe mig an s li e
ab oad, he mo e es anged hey eel om hei coun y o o igin. A u he
28 % said ha hey ne e el esponsible o Russia’s poli ical u u e.
Unde sco ing he impo ance o ime spen in mig a ion, Russians who
le be ween Janua y and Sep embe 2022 ( a he han a e he pa ial
mobilisa ion) we e mo e likely o s a e ha hey no longe ha e a sense o
esponsibili y o Russian poli ics — 31 % as opposed o 21 % o hose who
le since Sep embe 2022. Responden s who le be o e mobilisa ion we e
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 801 Russians in A menia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
FIGURE8
A menia: Do you eel pe sonally esponsible o Russia’s poli ical u u e?
ЧувствуетелиВыличнуюответственностьзаполитическоебудущее
России?
38.1%
27.3%
28.2%
6.4%
Yes, I do
I used o, bu now I don'
No, ne e
Don' know / Re used
The esponses in
A menia indica e
a s ong sense o
disillu sionmen wi h
Russian poli ics.
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
16
signi ican ly mo e likely o exp ess a sense o pe sonal esponsibili y, while
hose who le a e wa ds we e mo e likely o say ha hey ha e ne e el
esponsible o Russian poli ics.
To ge a be e sense o he beha iou s ha migh ollow om belie s abou
pe sonal esponsibili y o Russia’s poli ical u u e, we asked whe he he
esponden s hink ha Russians li ing ab oad a e obliged o ake ac ion
o in luence he poli ical si ua ion in Russia. Sligh ly mo e han 50 % o e-
sponden s in A menia belie e ha Russian mig an s ha e such an obliga-
ion, despi e he g owing sense o es angemen om Russian poli ics in
ha g oup ( FIGURE9).
This high sha e ela es o he s ong le el o poli icisa ion wi hin he A me-
nian sample, bu e en in his g oup, 16 % s a ed hey did no know how o
espond o he ques ion. The younges esponden s, aged 18 o 24, we e he
mos con inced ha Russians ab oad should ake poli ical ac ion. Based on
hei esponses o his ques ion, we hen asked why hey did o did no hink
ha Russians ab oad should ake such ac ion.
Responden s who said Russians a e obliged o ac we e gi en a se o easons
o choose om: ‘Thei ac ions can change he poli ical si ua ion in Russia’;
‘Thei ac ions send a signal o o he coun ies abou wha Russian ci izens
a e hinking’; and ‘Thei ac ions send a symbolic message o Russians who
emain in Russia’. Roughly equal numbe s selec ed each o hese op ions,
wi h a ound 22 % o esponden s in A menia claiming ha exiled Russians
can in luence he poli ical si ua ion back home. Those who chose o p o ide
hei own answe equen ly made emo ional s a emen s, easoning, o in-
s ance, ha ‘one canno jus lea e and o ge ’ o ha i was necessa y ‘ o
show ha Russian socie y is no homogeneous’.
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 801 Russians in A menia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
FIGURE9
A menia: Do you hink ha Russians li ing ab oad a e obliged o ake
ac ion o in luence he poli ical si ua ion in Russia?
СчитаетелиВы,чтороссияне,проживающиезарубежом,обязаны
участвоватьвдеятельности,чтобыповлиятьнаполитическуюситуацию
вРоссии?
33.2%
50.4%
16.4%
No
Yes
Don' know /
Re used
No Yes Don' know / Re used
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
 17
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
P esiden Pu in
Russian media
Russian a my
Ve y nega i ely Nega i ely Gene ally posi i ely Ve y posi i ely Don' know / Re used
Gene ally
posi i ely
Responden s who said ha Russians a e no obliged o ake ac ion o in lu-
ence he poli ical si ua ion in Russia we e gi en a pa allel se o easons o
choose om: ‘Thei ac ions canno change he poli ical si ua ion in Russia’;
‘Thei ac ions canno in luence how o he coun ies ea Russia’; and ‘Rus-
sians li ing in Russia do no wan o hea he opinions o Russians who li e
ab oad’. A ound 28 % o his g oup hen chose he i s eason. Those who
exp essed a iew ha was no in ou se o easons spoke o a eeling o be-
ing o e whelmed by he si ua ion and said ha hey no longe iden i y wi h
Russia and ha ‘poli ics is o poli icians’.
Highly c i ical abou Russian poli ics
We also asked esponden s o gi e hei e alua ions o P esiden Vladimi
Pu in, he Russian a my, and he Russian media. Unsu p isingly, hei a -
ings o Russian ins i u ions we e e y low ( FIGURE10). As in Russia i sel , he
Russian a my s ill ecei es he leas nega i e a ings, ela i ely speaking,
wi h he wo s a ings ese ed o he Russian media. Eigh y- ou pe cen
exp ess e y nega i e iews o he media, a simila sha e gi es e y poo
a ings o he p esiden , and 70% a e equally c i ical o he a my. The sha e
o esponden s who a oided gi ing any a ing was also highes in he case
o he a my.
Looking a indi idual ins i u ions, i is no ewo hy ha male esponden s
a e less hos ile o P esiden Pu in and gi e a much lowe a ing o he a my.
Those wi h lowe le els o educa ion also ended o exp ess highe us in
all o hese ins i u ions, along wi h hose aged 25 o 49. S ill, e y ew e-
sponden s in any ca ego y exp essed posi i e a i udes owa ds any Russian
ins i u ions.
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 801 Russians in A menia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
FIGURE10
A menia: How do you a e he ac i i ies o he ollowing indi iduals and      /
o ins i u ions?
КакВыоцениваетедеятельностьследующихлици/илиинститутов?
Ve y
nega i ely
Nega i ely Ve y
posi i ely
Don’ know/
Re used
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
18
Waning in e es in Russia’s wa in Uk aine
In e es in he wa is lagging among Russians in A menia ( FIGURE11). E en
i a clea majo i y ollows he si ua ion ‘ e y closely’ o ‘qui e closely’, nea ly
a qua e s a ed a he end o 2022 ha hey ‘used o ollow [ he wa ] closely,
bu don’ any longe ’. This is consis en wi h ou inding ha many espond-
en s in A menia say hey used o eel pe sonally esponsible o Russia’s
poli ical u u e bu now do no , and e lec s he ac ha a high sha e o e-
sponden s in A menia le Russia in ea ly 2022. Fo y-se en pe cen o hose
who le be o e Sep embe 2022 con inued o ollow he wa e y o qui e
closely, as opposed o 41 % o hose who le a e Sep embe 2022.
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 801 Russians in A menia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 801 Russians in A menia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
43.9%
25.3%
23.0%
3.0%
3.9%
0.9%
Ve y closely
Qui e closely
I used o ollow closely,
bu now I don'
I didn' used o,
bu now I ollow closely
Wi hou much a en ion
I don' ollow i a all
74.7%
1.3%
0.5%
2.5%
13.9%
7.0%
Russian
au ho i ies
Russian
ci izens
Uk ainian
au ho i ies
Wes e n s a es /
NATO
O he
Don' know /
Re used
FIGURE11
A menia: How closely ha e you been ollowing he si ua ion in Uk aine
since he con lic s a ed in Feb ua y 2022?
НаскольковнимательноВыследилизаситуациейвУкраинесмомента
началаконфликтавфеврале2022?
FIGURE12
A menia: In you opinion, who is p ima ily esponsible o he con lic in
Uk aine?
НаВашвзгляд,ктонесетглавнуюответственностьзаконфликтвУкраине?
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
 19
Th ee-qua e s o esponden s in A menia belie e ha he Russian au ho i-
ies a e p ima ily esponsible o he wa in Uk aine ( FIGURE12). Howe e ,
he sha e o hose who selec ed ‘o he ’ as he esponsible pa y o a oided
he ques ion al oge he was ai ly high. The open-ended esponses con ey a
sense o sha ed esponsibili y; people equen ly added commen s like ‘e e-
yone’ and ‘bo h pa ies, bu Russia mo e’, o a ibu ed guil o he Uni ed
S a es alongside Russia and Uk aine. Female esponden s we e mos likely
o s a e ha he Russian au ho i ies alone we e o blame.
In e na ional poli ical ac o s: Unce ain y amids posi i e a ings
Ra ings o bo h Uk aine’s p esiden Volodymy Zelenskyi and Wes e n ins i-
u ions like NATO we e gene ally high. Responden s in A menia we e pa -
icula ly well-disposed owa ds Zelenskyi: 20 % a ed him ‘ e y posi i ely’
and 46 % ‘gene ally posi i ely’ ( FIGURE13). Howe e , nea ly one in i e e-
sponden s exp essed unce ain y abou Zelenskyi and ga e ‘don’ know’ o
‘p e e no o answe ’ esponses o his ques ion. Zelenskyi’s a ings we e
especially posi i e among esponden s who le be o e he pa ial mobilisa-
ion and among hose aged be ween 35 and 49.
A high p opo ion o esponden s (a ound 30 % in bo h cases) we e unable o
unwilling o p o ide an answe o he ques ion o how hey e alua ed NATO
o Wes e n media. O e all, he EU ecei ed gene ally posi i e assessmen s,
wi h 57 % o esponden s in A menia being ‘ e y’ o ‘gene ally’ posi i e
abou he EU. App o al o Wes e n media and NATO was signi ican ly lowe .
This may e lec bo h a gene al mis us in he media and a belie ha NATO
is a leas pa ially esponsible o escala ing he wa in Uk aine
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 801 Russians in A menia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Eu opean Union
NATO
Wes e n media
P esiden Zelenskyi
Ve y nega i ely Nega i ely Gene ally posi i ely Ve y posi i ely Don' know / Re used
FIGURE13
A menia: How do you a e he ac i i ies o he ollowing indi iduals and /
o ins i u ions?
КакВыоцениваетедеятельностьследующихлици/илиинститутов?
Gene ally
posi i ely
Ve y
nega i ely
Nega i ely Ve y
posi i ely
Don’ know/
Re used

ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
20
Geo gia: Families and mo e quali ied
opposi ion o he Russian egime
Social alues in line wi h he a e age young Russian
A i udes owa ds same-sex ela ions among ou Russian esponden s
in Geo gia co espond b oadly o hose held by Russians o a simila age
in Russia.17 In Geo gia, 63 % o esponden s s a ed ha consen ing adul s
should ‘de ini ely’ o ‘gene ally’ ha e he igh o engage in same-sex ela-
ions, while 37 % said hey should no ( FIGURE14). This is by and la ge in line
wi h he a i udes o Russians aged 18 o 24 in Russia (53 % app o e, 39 % dis-
app o e), who a e a mo e accep ing o homosexuali y han olde Russians.
In he Geo gian sample, app o al o same-sex ela ions ends o be highe
among single people and hose wi h highe educa ion. The a o emen ioned
Le ada su ey also inds an impo an gende di e ence, wi h women be-
ing mo e likely o app o e o same-sex ela ions (28 % e sus 20 % o men).
We did no , howe e , de ec any signi ican gende di e ences in ou esul s
in Geo gia.
Russians in Geo gia a e conside ably mo e ole an o homosexuali y han
he o e all Geo gian popula ion. Acco ding o a 2017 Pew su ey, 93 % o
Geo gians belie e ha homosexuali y should no be accep ed by socie y, al-
hough young Geo gians a e mo e ole an han hose aged 35 and olde .18
17 ‘O nosheniye ossiyankLGBTlyudyam’,15Oc obe 2021,h ps://www.le ada. u/2021/10/15/
o noshenie- ossiyan-k-lgb -lyudyam/.
18 ‘Social iewsandmo ali y’,10May2017,h ps://www.pew esea ch.o g/ eligion/2017/05/10/
social- iews-and-mo ali y/.
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 853 Russians in Geo gia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
35.6%
27.7%
13.7%
23.1%
De ini ely yes
Gene ally yes
Gene ally no
De ini ely no
E gebnis
FIGURE14
Geo gia: Do you hink ha consen ing adul s ha e he igh o en e in o a
ela ionship wi h people o he same sex?
КакВысчитаете,имеютлиправовзрослыелюдиповзаимномусогласию
вступитьвотношенияслюдьмитогожепола?
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
21
Pe iodic poli ical engagemen in Russia and Geo gia
We also asked Russian esponden s in Geo gia abou hei le els o poli ical
and ci ic engagemen in he six mon hs be o e lea ing Russia. Only 36 % in-
dica ed ha hey had been in ol ed in a leas one o he ollowing ac i i ies:
pa icipa ing in a p o es un ela ed o Uk aine; olun ee ing; dona ing o
an NGO o helping Uk ainian e ugees ( FIGURE15). Ne e heless, a 14 %, he
sha e o esponden s who said hey had pa icipa ed in a p o es un ela ed
o e en s in Uk aine e lec s a a highe le el o p o es pa icipa ion han
is ypical in Russia.
Indi iduals wi h highe educa ion and hose wi hou child en we e mo e
likely o epo engaging in poli ical o ci ic ac i i ies. This was also he case
among hose who le Russia be o e he pa ial mobilisa ion was decla ed.
Responden s in a long- e m pa ne ship, as well as hose be ween 18 and 24
yea s o age, we e mo e likely o wa ch poli ical news online, discuss poli ics
wi h iends, o pos poli ical commen s on social media. O e all, 92 % o he
sample epo ed engaging in a leas one o hese ac i i ies.
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 853 Russians in Geo gia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
FIGURE15
Geo gia: We e you in ol ed in he ollowing ac i i ies du ing he 6 mon hs
be o e you le Russia?
ПринималилиВыучастиевследующихдействияхвтечение6месяцевдо
ВашегоотъездаизРоссии?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Wa ch poli ical b oadcas s / ideos
Discuss poli ics on social media
Discuss poli ics wi h iends / amily
Volun ee in my a ea
Dona e o NGOs
Help Uk ainian e ugees
P o es s un ela ed o e en s in Uk aine
O ganise cul u al e en s
No Yes
No Yes
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
22
When asked abou hei pa icipa ion in demons a ions agains Russia’s wa
in Uk aine, 11 % o esponden s in Geo gia said hey had pa icipa ed in such
e en s back in Russia, while 7 % had aken pa in an i-wa p o es s since a -
i ing in Geo gia ( FIGURE16). Se e al ac o s inc eased he likelihood o an in-
di idual pa icipa ing in a p o-Uk aine demons a ion while s ill li ing in Rus-
sia. Younge esponden s, indi iduals om Moscow and S . Pe e sbu g, and
hose who le be o e he decla a ion o he pa ial mobilisa ion we e mo e
likely o ha e p o es ed in Russia. Among esponden s aged 18 o 24, 14 % de-
cla ed ha hey had pa icipa ed in an i-wa p o es s compa ed o 7 % o hose
aged 35 o 49. The le el o p o es pa icipa ion was qui e high among hose
who le be ween Janua y and Sep embe 2022 (15 %) and much lowe among
hose who le Russia a e Sep embe 2022 (8 %).
0.1%
7.0%
92.8%
1.0%
11.0%
88.0%
Yes, in suppo o Russia
Yes, in suppo o Uk ainе
No, I ha e no aken pa
in such ac ions
While in Geo gia/A menia While in Russia
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 853 Russians in Geo gia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
FIGURE16
Geo gia: Ha e you aken pa in demons a ions in suppo o o agains
he wa (Russia’s ‘special mili a y ope a ion’)?
ПринималилиВыучастиевакцияхвподдержкуилипротиввойны
(специальнойвоеннойоперацииРоссии)?
WhileinGeo gia
WhileinRussia
Rega ding pa icipa ion in p o-Uk aine demons a ions while in Geo gia, we
obse e simila ends in age and ime o depa u e. Indi iduals who le be-
o e he pa ial mobilisa ion we e mo e likely o ha e p o es ed ab oad: 12 %
compa ed o jus 4 % o hose who le a e wa ds. Simila ly, hose aged 18
o 24 we e wice as likely o ha e pa icipa ed in p o es s in Geo gia han e-
sponden s in he 35–49 age g oup (10 % s 5 %).
The sha e o esponden s in Geo gia who epo ed eeling esponsible o Rus-
sia’s poli ical u u e is well below 40 % ( FIGURE17). The sha e o hose who ha e
ne e el such a sense o esponsibili y is almos 30 %, while a conside able
ac ion did no know how o eac o he ques ion. Women and esponden s
in e iewed in Tbilisi mo e equen ly epo ed eeling a sense o pe sonal
esponsibili y han men and hose who we e in e iewed in Ba umi.
11 % said hey had
pa icipa ed in
demons a ions
agains he wa back
in Russia.
ZOiS Repo 2 / 2023 Russians in he Sou h Caucasus: Poli ical A i udes and he Wa in Uk aine
23
In Geo gia, esponden s we e e enly spli on he ques ion o whe he Rus-
sians ab oad a e obliged o ake ac ion o in luence he poli ical si ua ion in
Russia: nea ly 40 % said hey a e, while ano he 40 % said hey a e no . The
emaining esponden s we e undecided ( FIGURE18).
Fo y pe cen o esponden s who said Russians a e obliged o ac belie e
ha hei ac ions would ‘Send a signal o o he coun ies abou wha Rus-
sian ci izens a e hinking’. Ano he 27 % indica ed ha ‘Thei ac ions can
change he poli ical si ua ion in Russia’, and a u he 20 % said ha hey
would ‘Send a symbolic message o Russians who emain in Russia’.
Responden s who el ha Russians a e no obliged o ac mos o en ex-
p essed a sense o disillusionmen , wi h 40 % ag eeing ha ‘Thei ac ions
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 853 Russians in Geo gia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)
FIGURE18
Geo gia: Do you hink ha Russians li ing ab oad a e obliged o ake
ac ion o in luence he poli ical si ua ion inRussia?
СчитаетелиВы,чтороссияне,проживающиезарубежом,обязаны
участвоватьвдеятельности,чтобыповлиятьнаполитическуюситуацию
вРоссии?
38.6%
39.6%
21.8%
No
Yes
Don' know /
Re used
36.9%
18.5%
29.4%
15.1%
Yes, I do
I used o,
bu now I don'
No, ne e
Don' know /
Re used
Diag amm i el
FIGURE17
Geo gia: Do you eel pe sonally esponsible o Russia’s poli ical u u e?
ЧувствуетелиВыличнуюответственностьзаполитическоебудущее
России?
Sou ce: Da a om ZOiS / Ha a d / FES su ey o 853 Russians in Geo gia, 18+, conduc ed in Decembe 2022 (CAPI)