Kühling, Ch is oph; Sp inge , F ede ik; Klein, Ma kus
A icle — Published Ve sion
The Changing Face o he A D Elec o a e—ALongi udinal
Analysis om 2013 o 2022
Poli ische Vie eljah essch i
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kühling, Ch is oph; Sp inge , F ede ik; Klein, Ma kus (2025) : The Changing Face
o he A D Elec o a e—ALongi udinal Analysis om 2013 o 2022, Poli ische Vie eljah essch i ,
ISSN 1862-2860, Sp inge Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, Wiesbaden, Vol. 66, Iss. 4, pp. 829-845,
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Poli ische Vie eljah essch i (2025) 66:829–845
The Changing Face o he A D
Elec o a e—A Longi udinal Analysis om 2013 o 2022
Ch is oph Kühling · F ede ik Sp inge · Ma kus Klein
Recei ed: 11 Ap il 2024 / Re ised: 9 Ma ch 2025 / Accep ed: 17 Ma ch 2025 / Published online: 28 Ap il
2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Abs ac The mo e han en-yea his o y o he Al e na i e o Ge many (A D)
pa y is ma ked by con inuous p og amma ic and pe sonnel de elopmen . S a ing
ou as an economically libe al, Eu oscep ic pa y, he A D quickly de eloped in o
a adical igh pa y, which in ecen yea s has inc easingly mo ed in he di ec ion
o igh -wing ex emism. P e ious analyses o he A D’s changing elec o a e ha e
only cap u ed he pa y’s ans o ma ion om a Eu oscep ic o a adical igh pa y.
In his esea ch no e, we a gue ha he looming ans o ma ion om a adical igh
o an ex eme igh pa y, like he ans o ma ion om a Eu oscep ic o a adical
igh pa y, should lead o a g adual shi in he elec o a e. Assuming ha ex emism
is conside ed aboo by many o e s, we expec he A D elec o a e o be inc eas-
ingly domina ed by a - igh o e s. Mo eo e , some sociodemog aphic g oups a e
expec ed o be pa icula ly epelled by he pa y’s ex emis endencies ( he highly
educa ed, wes e n Ge mans, and ci il se an s), as hey a e mo e likely o ejec ex-
eme- igh ideas. Ou empi ical analysis based on Poli ba ome e da a om 2013 o
2022 la gely con i ms ou expec a ions: Fi s , we ind ha he e ec s o well-known
p edic o s o A D o ing (gene al ideology, educa ion, eas –wes ) ha e inc eased
u he . Second, ou analysis shows ha an immunising e ec o ci il se an s a us
has de eloped in pa allel wi h he pa y shi owa ds ex emism.
Keywo ds Al e na i e o Ge many (A D) · Radical igh · Ex eme igh ·
Poli ba ome e
Ch is oph Kühling · F ede ik Sp inge · Ma kus Klein
Depa men o Poli ical Science, Leibniz Uni e si y Hanno e , Hanno e , Ge many
E-Mail: [email protected] e .de
K
830 C. Kühling e al.
Das sich wandelnde Gesich de A D-Wähle scha – Eine
Längsschni analyse on 2013 bis 2022
Zusammen assung Die meh als zehnjäh ige Geschich e de Al e na i e ü
Deu schland (A D) is du ch eine kon inuie liche p og amma ische und pe sonelle
En wicklung gekennzeichne . Als wi scha slibe ale Pa ei ges a e , wandel e sich
die A D schnell zu eine ech s adikalen Pa ei, die sich in den le z en Jah en imme
wei e in Rich ung Rech sex emismus beweg . Bishe ige Analysen zum Wandel de
A D-Wähle scha e assen nu den Wandel de Pa ei on eine eu oskep ischen
zu eine ech s adikalen Pa ei. In diese Fo schungsno iz a gumen ie en wi , dass
de Wandel on eine ech s adikalen zu eine zunehmend ech sex emen Pa ei
ebenso wie de Wandel on eine eu oskep ischen zu eine ech s adikalen Pa ei zu
eine allmählichen Ve schiebung in de Wähle scha üh en soll e. Basie end au
de Annahme, dass Rech sex emismus on ielen Wähle innen und Wähle n als
Tabu angesehen wi d, e wa en wi , dass die Wähle scha de A D zunehmend on
ex em ech s posi ionie en Wähle innen und Wähle n dominie wi d. Auße dem
gehen wi da on aus, dass einige soziodemog a ische G uppen on den ex e-
mis ischen Tendenzen in de Pa ei besonde s abges oßen we den (Hochgebilde e,
Wes deu sche und Beam e), da sie ech sex eme Ansich en ehe ablehnen. Unse e
empi ische Analyse au Basis de Poli ba ome e -Da en on 2013 bis 2022 kann
unse e E wa ungen wei gehend bes ä igen: E s ens inden wi , dass die E ek e de
bekann en P ädik o en de A D-Wahl (allgemeine Links-Rech s-Ideologie, Bildung
und Os -Wes ) wei e zugenommen haben. Zwei ens zeig unse e Analyse, dass sich
pa allel zu p og amma ischen Radikalisie ung zunehmend eine immunisie ende
Wi kung des Beam ens a us he ausbilde .
Keywo ds Al e na i e ü Deu schland (A D) · Radikale Rech e · Ex eme
Rech e · Poli ba ome e
1 In oduc ion
The elec o al b eak h ough o he Al e na i e o Ge many (A D) is closely linked
o he pa y’s ans o ma ion om a ma ke -libe al, Eu oscep ic pa y o a igh -wing
populis pa y in he wake o he so-called e ugee c isis in 2015. Unsu p isingly,
he e has been a g ea deal o esea ch de o ed o he ques ion o whe he he
heo e ical explana ions used in he in e na ional li e a u e on he adical igh can
also be applied o he A D. Empi ical esea ch on he A D elec o a e shows ha
so-called lose s o mode nisa ion a e indeed mo e inclined o o e o he A D
(e.g. Lux 2018), suppo ing economic explana ions. Howe e , esea ch highligh s
ha heo e ical accoun s based on cul u al g ie ances ha e a highe explana o y
powe (e.g. Rippl and Seipel 2018). Longi udinal s udies ha di ec ly add ess he
ques ion o whe he he pa y change was accompanied by a change in he elec o a e
(A zheime and Be ning 2019; Biebe e al. 2018; Klein e al. 2022) co obo a e
ha i was only in he cou se o he pa y’s ans o ma ion in o a adical igh pa y
ha i s elec o a e came close o he ypical p o ile o adical igh o e s.
K
The Changing Face o he A D Elec o a e—A Longi udinal Analysis om 2013 o 2022 831
Howe e , no s udy has ye examined how he pa y’s ecen de elopmen s owa ds
igh -wing ex emism (de ined as opposi ion o he libe al democ a ic o de ) ha e
a ec ed he pa y’s elec o a e. In his pape , we aim o ill his esea ch gap and
a gue ha he looming ans o ma ion om a adical igh o an ex eme igh pa y,
like he ans o ma ion om a Eu oscep ic o a adical igh pa y, should lead o
a g adual shi in he elec o a e, wi h he old elec o al p o ile g adually being eplaced
by he new one. Assuming ha igh -wing ex emism is conside ed aboo by many
o e s, we expec he A D elec o a e o be inc easingly domina ed by a - igh o e s.
Mo eo e , some sociodemog aphic g oups (e.g. he highly educa ed) a e expec ed
o be pa icula ly epelled by he pa y’s ex emis endencies, as hey a e mo e
likely o ejec ex eme- igh ideas. Ou esea ch ques ion is no only o heo e ical
ele ance. F om a socie al poin o iew, i is impo an o know which social g oups
suppo a pa y ha is inc easingly mo ing owa ds igh -wing ex emism because
p e en ing ex emism equi es iden i ying i s social base.
The pape is s uc u ed as ollows: Fi s , we discuss exis ing esea ch on he
de elopmen o he A D elec o a e in he cou se o he pa y’s ans o ma ion in o
a adical igh pa y (Sec . 2). In he subsequen sec ion, we de i e heo e ical ex-
pec a ions o he change in he A D elec o a e, based on he pa y’s ecen mo e
owa ds igh -wing ex emism (Sec . 3). A e desc ibing he da a used and he cho-
sen analy ical s a egy (Sec . 4), we p esen he esul s o ou analysis in Sec . 5.
The pape concludes wi h a summa y o he esul s and a discussion o hei impli-
ca ions (Sec . 6).
2 P e ious Resea ch on he (Changing) A D Elec o a e
The A D was ounded in 2013 in esponse o he Eu opean deb c isis. In his
ini ial phase, he pa y could be desc ibed as an economically libe al, Eu oscep-
ic pa y bu no ye as a igh -wing populis pa y (A zheime 2015). Howe e ,
a con lic soon eme ged wi hin he pa y be ween he economically libe al lead-
e ship and mo e adical o ces, culmina ing in he depa u e o pa y spokesman
Lucke and o he mode a es in he summe o 2015. The eas e n Ge man egional
b anches played a cen al ole in his adicalisa ion p ocess (Weisski che 2022,
p. 319). F om his poin on, esea che s ha e ca ego ised he A D as a igh -wing
populis pa y (A zheime and Be ning 2019, p. 3). Unde he new leade ship o
spokespe sons Pe y and Meu hen, and agains he backd op o he e ugee c isis,
he A D subsequen ly ocused i s p og amme p ima ily on he issue o mig a ion.
This p og amma ic shi laid he g oundwo k o he pa y’s en y in o he Bundes ag
in 2017.
Wi h he p og amma ic ans o ma ion in o a adical igh pa y, he pa y’s elec-
o a e should ha e mo ed close o he o e p o ile o hese pa ies. In e na ional
compa a i e esea ch has iden i ied wo main heo e ical app oaches o explain who
o es o a adical igh pa y and why: The mode nisa ion lose s heo y, hemos
p ominen economic explana ion, a ibu es he elec o al success o adical igh pa -
ies o economic mode nisa ion p ocesses such as globalisa ion (K iesi e al. 2008).
The inc ease in c oss-bo de ade and mig a ion u ns ce ain social g oups, such as
K
832 C. Kühling e al.
wo ke s, he unemployed, he poo ly educa ed, and he pe y bou geoisie, who a e
less able o adap o hese socioeconomic changes, in o “mode nisa ion lose s”. Cul-
u al explana ions, such as No is and Ingleha ’s (2019)cul u al backlash heo y,
in e p e he ise o adical igh pa ies as a eac ion o sociocul u al mode nisa ion.
Acco ding o his heo y, p ocesses o social change, such as he sp ead o pos -
ma e ialis alues and mul icul u alism, lead o insecu i y in some segmen s o he
socie y (e.g. men and he poo ly educa ed).
Gi en ha immig a ion ea u es p ominen ly in hese heo ies (and in he pa ies’
p og ammes), i is no su p ising ha in e na ional esea ch has shown a consis-
en and s ong e ec o an i-immig an a i udes (A zheime 2018; Rooduijn 2018;
S ockeme e al. 2018). In addi ion, gene al le – igh ideology u ns ou o be a el-
e an explana o y a iable in many s udies (e.g. Halikiopoulou and Vlandas 2020).
In e na ional esea ch has also been able o d aw a ela i ely clea o e p o ile
o adical igh pa ies om a socios uc u al pe spec i e. The so-called adical igh
gende gap, i.e. he ac ha men suppo hese pa ies o a g ea e ex en han women
do (S ockeme e al. 2018), is he mos well es ablished. Resea ch has also demon-
s a ed ha highly educa ed o e s a e less likely o o e o adical igh pa ies (e.g.
Bo nschie e al. 2021). In e ms o occupa ional and employmen s a us, esea ch
indica es ha blue-colla wo ke s a e mo e likely o o e o hese pa ies (Bo n-
schie and K iesi 2012; Oesch and Rennwald 2018). Abo e-a e age suppo has also
been ound among he unemployed (e.g. Halikiopoulou and Vlandas 2020)and he
(small) sel -employed (Gid on and Hall 2017; Oesch and Rennwald 2018). Finally,
dep i a ion and decline in social s a us ha e been iden i ied as ele an p edic o s
o adical igh o ing (Gid on and Hall 2017; Rooduijn and Bu goon 2018).
Exis ing longi udinal and c oss-sec ional esea ch on he A D has shown ha
since i s p og amma ic ans o ma ion, he A D’s elec o a e esembles he ypical
o e p o ile o igh -wing populis pa ies as ou lined abo e. Wi h ega d o poli ical
p edisposi ions, esea ch highligh s he c ucial ole o an i-immig an a i udes o
explaining elec o al suppo o he A D (e.g. Ba on and Gö z 2023; Hambaue and
Mays 2018; Rippl and Seipel 2018). Longi udinal e idence sugges s ha a i udes
owa ds mig a ion had no e ec in he ea ly days bu became mo e impo an o e
ime (pa icula ly du ing he e ugee c isis; A zheime and Be ning 2019;Biebe
e al. 2018; bu see Schmi -Beck’s 2017 analysis o he 2013 elec ion). The e ec o
he gene al le – igh ideology has also inc eased o e ime (A zheime and Be ning
2019; Biebe e al. 2018). Howe e , he e is disag eemen as o whe he he e was
al eady an e ec in he ea ly phase o he A D (A zheime and Be ning 2019; Klein
e al. 2022; Schmi -Beck 2017) o only somewha la e (Biebe e al. 2018).
Wi h espec o he sociodemog aphic p o ile o he A D elec o a e, he e is a sub-
s an ial s and o li e a u e ha add esses he ques ion o whe he he A D ecei es
abo e-a e age suppo om people wi h lowe socioeconomic s a us. Al hough he
esul s a e no en i ely consis en (see, o example, Be gmann e al. 2017 o con a-
dic o y indings), mos s udies indica e ha indi iduals om lowe social s a a, i.e.
people wi h lowe educa ion o income, blue-colla wo ke s, and he unemployed o
people a isk o unemploymen , a e mo e likely o o e o he A D (Cohen 2021;
Lux 2018,2022;Tu i
´
c and on He manni 2018). Longi udinal e idence sugges s
ha his p o ile e ol ed only in he cou se o he pa y’s ans o ma ion in o a igh -
K
The Changing Face o he A D Elec o a e—A Longi udinal Analysis om 2013 o 2022 833
wing populis pa y: The abo e-a e age suppo among o e s wi h a low o medium
le el o educa ion de eloped only in 2014, while he disp opo iona ely high suppo
om blue-colla wo ke s also appea ed only in 2016 (Klein e al. 2022). In con as ,
he A D al eady enjoyed abo e-a e age suppo om he sel -employed in i s ea ly
phase as a ma ke -libe al, Eu oscep ic pa y, al hough he sel -employed suppo ed
he pa y less o e ime (A zheime and Be ning 2019; Biebe e al. 2018). The well-
documen ed gende gap in A D suppo (Hudde 2023) was also p esen om he
s a . Ano he ea u e o he Ge man case is he abo e-a e age suppo o he A D
in eas e n Ge many, which can be a ibu ed o a i udinal di e ences (e.g. in an i-
immig an a i udes) and di e ences in he ansla ion o hese a i udes in o o es
(A zheime 2024b; Pes hy e al. 2021). The e is also e idence ha his eas –wes
gap has widened o e ime (A zheime and Be ning 2019).
To sum up, esea ch on he A D elec o a e has la gely e ol ed a ound he ques-
ion o whe he i s elec o a e esembles ha o o he adical igh pa ies. Mo e
ecen s udies on he A D ha e analysed he e ec o COVID-19 o ien a ions in he
con ex o he 2021 elec ion (Baye lein and Me en 2022; Hansen and Olsen 2024)
o he poli ical geog aphy o igh -wing populism (A zheime and Be nemann 2024;
Manow and Flügel 2023). To da e, howe e , no s udy has sys ema ically examined
whe he he pa y’s ongoing shi owa ds ex emism has been accompanied by
a u he change in he composi ion o he A D’s elec o a e.1
3 Theo e ical Expec a ions o he Change o he A D Elec o a e in he
Cou se o he Pa y’s Mo e Towa ds Ex emism
The e olu ion om a ma ke -libe al, Eu oscep ic pa y o a ypical pa y o he
adical igh , as desc ibed in he p e ious sec ion, was no he end o he pa y’s p o-
g amma ic and pe sonnel de elopmen . Fu he changes in he pa y leade ship ol-
lowed, wi h pa y spokespe sons being eplaced by mo e adical successo s, he eby
cemen ing he adicalisa ion o he pa y in e ms o pe sonnel. Rega ding he pa y’s
ideology, he A D has inc easingly been mo ing in he di ec ion o igh -wing ex-
emism since 2017 (A zheime 2024a, p. 6). This became clea in Janua y 2019,
when he Fede al O ice o he P o ec ion o he Cons i u ion (Ve assungsschu z)
classi ied he pa y’s ex eme ac ion, “de Flügel” ( he wing), as a suspec ed ex-
emis o ganisa ion. A e being o icially decla ed igh -wing ex emis in Ma ch
2020, i o mally disbanded. Since hen, se e al egional b anches o he pa y ha e
come unde sc u iny, wi h some being con i med as ex emis . Since Ma ch 2021, he
ede al A D has also been classi ied as a suspec ed igh -wing ex emis o ganisa-
ion. In Janua y 2022, o me pa y spokesman Meu hen announced his esigna ion
om he pa y on he g ounds ha pa s o he pa y no longe adhe ed o he libe al
democ a ic basic o de . Sch oede and Weßels (2023, p. 37) see Meu hen’s wi h-
1A s udy by S eine (2024) ha examines he e ec o COVID-19 a i udes on o e swi ching owa ds and
away om he A D in he 2021 ede al elec ion also p o ides some insigh s in o changes in he elec o a e
ha go beyond COVID-19. Howe e , he s udy is based on a di e en esea ch design and ocuses on
COVID-19 a i udes a he han gene al changes in he elec o a e.
K
834 C. Kühling e al.
d awal as ano he u ning poin in he pa y’s de elopmen , as he adical o ces in
he pa y ha e now p e ailed a e a long in e nal s uggle o powe . Since hen,
he e has no longe been a clea dema ca ion om igh -wing ex emism.
Be o e we look a wha expec a ions o he A D’s elec o a e can be de i ed
om he pa y’s ex eme- igh endencies, we would like o add ess he ques ion o
whe he his shi is also e lec ed in es ima es o he pa y’s posi ion. Acco ding
o da a om he Chapel Hill Expe Su ey (Hooghe e al. 2024; Jolly e al. 2022;
Polk e al. 2017), he A D mo ed o he igh on he sociocul u al (GAL-TAN)
dimension be ween 2014 and 2017 ( om 8.7 o 9.5). Howe e , he e was no u -
he mo emen o he igh a he ollowing su ey poin s (which may be he esul
o a ceiling e ec ).2In con as , Debus’ (2022) quan i a i e analysis o he A D’s
pa y mani es os shows ha he A D has mo ed u he o he igh on he GAL-
TAN (g een–al e na i e–libe a ian and adi ional–au ho i a ian–na ionalis ) dimen-
sion be ween 2017 and 2021. Despi e his mixed e idence, he pa y’s su eillance
and he assessmen s by poli ical obse e s (e.g. Sch oede and Weßels 2023) clea ly
sugges ha ex emis s ha e a conside able in luence in he pa y.
Simila o he ans o ma ion om a ma ke -libe al, Eu oscep ic pa y o a adical
igh pa y, he looming ansi ion o an ex eme igh pa y is likely o change he
p o ile o he A D elec o a e.3Howe e , we assume ha he pa y’s de elopmen
should no be immedia ely e lec ed in he elec o a e. In pa icula , suppo e s om
he p e ious s age o he pa y’s de elopmen may ini ially con inue o shape i s
image; i is only when hese suppo e s clea ly pe cei e he changes in posi ion and
conside hem o be pe manen ha hey will u n hei backs on he pa y.4This
will esul in a g adual change o he elec o a e’s composi ion, wi h o e s om he
p e ious s age o de elopmen g adually becoming less impo an . Consequen ly,
he pa y’s image will become inc easingly cha ac e ised by he new o e p o ile.
Wi h ega d o he o e p o ile o ex eme igh -wing pa ies, i can be a gued
ha i should be simila o ha o adical igh pa ies (A zheime 2024a, p. 4). By
and la ge, he p edic o s o a o e o he adical igh , as discussed abo e, should
also apply o ex eme- igh pa ies. Howe e , he elec o a es o bo h pa y ypes
should also di e in impo an espec s.
I can be a gued ha he e is a s ong social no m agains igh -wing ex emism,
esul ing in a social s igma agains ex eme- igh pa ies (A zheime and Be ning
2019; Mendes and Dennison 2021). This should be pa icula ly ue in he Ge man
case. Since o ing o a igh -wing ex emis pa y is hus likely o be seen as aboo
by many o e s, o e s who had p e iously suppo ed he A D bu we e now pu o
by i s ex emis endencies should ha e g adually u ned hei backs on he pa y.
2The o en-assumed le wa d shi o o he pa ies is only weakly suppo ed by he CHES ime se ies
(1999–2024). Acco ding o he da a, he Ch is ian Democ a ic Union and Ch is ian Social Union ha e
mo ed only sligh ly owa ds he cen e.
3I is impo an o no e ha we de i e ou heo e ical expec a ions solely om he de elopmen o he
pa y. Changes on he demand side ( igge ed by economic c ises o mig a ion), which may ein o ce o
coun e ac his de elopmen , a e no aken in o accoun . Howe e , hey a e discussed in he empi ical
sec ion.
4This is all he mo e ue o he mo e owa ds he ex eme igh , which is much mo e g adual han he
ansi ion o he adical igh ha ook place in 2015.
K
The Changing Face o he A D Elec o a e—A Longi udinal Analysis om 2013 o 2022 835
While he A D s ill managed o mobilise o e s om he poli ical cen e du ing he
e ugee c isis (Klein e al. 2018), he elec o a e should inc easingly be domina ed
by a - igh o e s who suppo , o a leas ole a e, he pa y’s ex eme posi ions.
Simila ly, suppo e s om he ea ly days who migh ha e gone along wi h he
pa y’s igh -wing populis cha ac e a e likely o u n away om he pa y. Thus,
we assume ha he e ec o he gene al le – igh placemen on he A D o e should
ha e inc eased u he :
H1 The posi i e e ec o being ideologically a igh on he in en ion o o e o
he A D inc eases o e ime as he A D mo es owa ds he ex eme igh .
The sociodemog aphic composi ion o he A D elec o a e should also become
clea e . To begin wi h, he mo e owa ds igh -wing ex emism should widen he
educa ion gap in A D suppo . On he one hand, his can be explained by he well-
known posi i e ela ionship be ween educa ion and democ acy: Educa ion enhances
he abili y o unde s and complex poli ical p ocesses and p omo es he de elopmen
o democ a ic alues and no ms (e.g. Ös e man and Robinson 2023, p. 1300 .).
In addi ion, educa ion is closely ela ed o he educ ion o p ejudice. In essence,
he unde lying mechanisms a e simila o hose linking educa ion and suppo o
democ acy. One a gumen is ha schools each alues such as ole ance and equal-
i y. Mo eo e , educa ion p o ides indi iduals wi h he skills o ejec o e simpli ied
iews such as p ejudice (e.g. Webe 2022, p. 230). F om hese heo e ical a gumen s,
we de i e he expec a ion ha he immunising e ec o educa ion has inc eased o e
ime, as he e a e signs ha he A D is iola ing cen al pilla s o he libe al demo-
c a ic o de , o example by cul i a ing an e hnic concep ion o “ he people” and
agi a ing agains pa liamen a y democ acy (see, e.g., Ve assungsschu z Sachsen-
Anhal 2024). Thus, we hypo hesise he ollowing:
H2 The nega i e e ec o educa ion on he in en ion o o e o he A D inc eases
o e ime as he A D mo es owa ds he ex eme igh .
Ano he heo e ical expec a ion can be o mula ed wi h ega d o he occupa ional
g oup o ci il se an s. Since he p e equisi e o appoin men o such a p o essional
posi ion is a commi men o he libe al democ a ic basic o de , his g oup should
ha e in e nalised democ a ic alues and hus be pa icula ly de e ed by igh -wing
ex emis endencies. Fo some ime now, he pa y i sel has been conce ned abou
he consequences o he su eillance by he Ve assungsschu z o he pa y o i s
membe s who a e ci il se an s, as hey could ace consequences unde public
se ices law (e.g. Tagesspiegel 2020). E en hough ci il se an s do no ace any
consequences o suppo ing he A D a he ballo s, he cogni i e dissonance ha
would esul om o ing o a pa y ha opposes he libe al democ a ic o de hey
ha e swo n o uphold should ha e a de e en e ec . In sum, we hypo hesise he
ollowing:
H3 The nega i e e ec o being a ci il se an on he in en ion o o e o he A D
inc eases o e ime as he A D mo es owa ds he ex eme igh .
K
836 C. Kühling e al.
Finally, ega ding he well-documen ed eas –wes disc epancy in A D suppo ,
we expec his gap o widen o e ime o wo easons. Empi ical e idence on igh -
wing ex emis a i udes in Ge many shows ha he e a e di e ences be ween eas
and wes on some subdimensions o igh -wing ex emism. In pa icula , he e a e
signi ican di e ences on he subdimension ha mos s ongly dis inguishes igh -
wing ex emism om igh -wing populism, namely suppo o au ho i a ian ule.
Acco ding o he so-called Mi e S udy 2018/19 (published by he Ge man F ied ich
Ebe Founda ion), 7.5% o he popula ion in he eas , compa ed o 2.6% in he
wes , endo se au ho i a ian ule (Küppe e al. 2018, p. 254). Ano he a gumen o
a g owing eas –wes di ide is ha he A D is much mo e es ablished in he eas ,
and o ing o his pa y may he e o e be less o a aboo. In eas e n Ge many, i
is much mo e likely ha a amily membe , a iend, o a colleague has sympa hies
o he A D, and his may esul in he belie ha o ing o he A D is some hing
no mal and legi ima e. The e o e, we expec he ollowing:
H4 The posi i e e ec o li ing in eas e n Ge many on he in en ion o o e o
he A D inc eases o e ime as he A D mo es owa ds he ex eme igh .
4 Da a and Analy ical S a egy
Ou empi ical analysis is based on he Poli ba ome e , a ep esen a i e elephone
su ey conduc ed by Fo schungsg uppe Wahlen. E e y 2 o 3 weeks, his opinion
esea ch ins i u e su eys 1500 esponden s o gauge he Ge man o ing popula ion’s
a i udes owa ds cu en poli ical issues and ac o s.5The ad an age o hese da a
compa ed o he online su eys o he Ge man Na ional Elec ion S udy used by
Biebe e al. (2018) and A zheime and Be ning (2019) is he highe sample quali y
and he mo e equen da a collec ion. A u he s eng h o he Poli ba ome e da a
is ha he su ey ins umen s used a e highly s able and hus enable a consis en
analysis o changes o e ime. The published cumula i e da ase cu en ly co e s
he su ey pe iod om 1977 o 2022.6In line wi h he eme gence o he A D, ou
analysis s a s in Ma ch 2013. Fo his pe iod, he da ase con ains a o al o 244,393
o e s.
To desc ibe he de elopmen o he A D elec o a e, we es ima ed bina y logis ic
eg essions wi h he dependen a iable indica ing whe he a esponden in ended o
o e o he A D o o ano he pa y. These we e un sepa a ely o each qua e o
a gi en yea .7We epo he obse ed e ec s in e ms o ela i e isks. To do his, we
de e mined he p edic ed p obabili ies o o ing o he A D when an independen
dummy a iable ook he alue 1 and when i ook he alue 0; di iding he o me
5Accoun ing o he o e sampling o eas e n Ge mans, we weigh all ou analyses.
6The ID o he da ase is “ZA2391_ 15-0-0”, and i is a ailable a h ps://sea ch.gesis.o g/ esea ch_da a/
ZA2391
7Pa icula ly in he ea ly days o he A D, mon hly es ima es would be subjec o oo much unce ain y
due o he small numbe o A D o e s. An annual analysis, on he o he hand, would make i di icul o
link ends o speci ic e en s in he poli ical landscape o wi hin he pa y i sel .
K
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