T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a
Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
18
pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003
PROGNOSIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VULNERABILITY
OF OBJECTS WITHIN THE FIRE PROTECTION
Adam MALATINSKÝ1, Ma in HROMADA2
1 Tomas Ba a Uni e si y in Zlín, Facul y o Applied In o ma ics, Zlín, Czech Republic, [email p o ec ed],
2 Tomas Ba a Uni e si y in Zlín, Facul y o Applied In o ma ics, Zlín, Czech Republic, [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : The a icle deals wi h he p ognosis o he de elopmen o ulne abili y o objec s wi hin
i e p o ec ion. The a icle de ines ulne abili y, i s signi icance, causes, analysis, c i e ia
and de e mina ion. The ollowing sec ion deals wi h a b ie his o ical de elopmen
o he ulne abili y o buildings in i e p o ec ion, ollowed by a sec ion on he cu en
s a e o ulne abili y o buildings in i e p o ec ion. The ollowing pa s o he a icle
deal wi h he p ognosis o he de elopmen o objec s' ulne abili y o he yea s
2030, 2040 and 2050. The p ognos ic me hod, desc ip ion, applica ion, and inal esul
o he p ognosis a e chosen wi hin hese pa s.
Keywo ds: P ognosis, Vulne abili y, Fi e Sa e y, P ognos ic Me hod, Sa e y.
Resea ch a icle
In oduc ion
Sa e y and a sense o sa e y a e among he basic
needs o a pe son o he good li e. The e o e, ypes o
sa e y began o eme ge in a ious o ms, which we e
ans o med con inuously and upda ed wi h socie y's
de elopmen , depending on he cu en si ua ion. Fi e
sa e y is also one o he oldes ypes o sa e y. Due
o he mo e signi ican impac o i e p o ec ion
h ea s, he demand o i e sa e y has begun
o de elop in he pas . G adually, smalle uni s began
o be c ea ed aimed a p o ec ing he popula ion
and p ope y om i es. Wi h he company's
de elopmen , hese uni s began o expand and
in eg a e un il associa ions wi h a common in e es
in i e p o ec ion began o eme ge. G adually,
olun a y i e b igades began o de elop, whose ask
was o p o ec he popula ion and p ope y wi hin
i e p o ec ion. Due o he e e -inc easing demand
o i e sa e y, p o essional i e p o ec ion uni s ha e
been c ea ed. These p o essional uni s wi h olun a y
i e p o ec ion uni s cu en ly o m one la ge
in eg a ed uni , whose ask is escue and liquida ion
wo k du ing eme gencies and also, in addi ion
o ep essi e ac i i ies, also he implemen a ion
o p e en i e ac i i ies. Wi hin he amewo k
o i e isk in a mo e global p edic i e sense, i is
impo an o ocus p ima ily on h ea s ela ed o
he o igin and e ec o i e, he explosion o haza dous
subs ances, lood managemen , cons an ly imp o ing
he esponsi eness o i e p o ec ion uni s o
echnical in e en ions such as a ic acciden s,
emo ing ees om oads, ecological calami ies,
conduc ing egula inspec ion and ac ical exe cises,
coope a ion wi h ci ies and ins i u ions and he like.
This a icle ocuses on he p ognosis o de eloping
he objec 's ulne abili y o he yea s 2030, 2040 and
2050 using sui able p ognos ic me hods. The a icle
desc ibes he ulne abili y and cu en ulne abili y
o he building wi hin he i e p o ec ion wi hin
he indi idual pa s. Based on he cu en
s a e's analysis, a pa is concei ed, ocused on
he de elopmen p ognoses hemsel es. Fi s ,
he p ognos ic me hod o indi idual yea s is chosen.
The esul ing s a e is a p ognosis o de eloping
he building o company's ulne abili y wi hin
he i e p o ec ion.
Vulne abili y
Vulne abili y gene ally exp esses he weakness
o an objec and i s asse s, h ough which secu i y can
be comp omised. Vulne abili y can also be de ined as
an amoun exp essing he ease wi h which an objec
can be damaged. I also exp esses he suscep ibili y
o he p o ec ed in e es o damage. I s mos common
causes include he omission o a h ea , igno ance
o he h ea o a new ha m ul e ec . The e o e,
i is essen ial o c ea e a ulne abili y analysis,
in which an es ima e is made o he p obabili y
ha he h ea will occu and cause damage o
he building and i s asse s. The ulne abili y analysis
aims o assess he measu es aken agains indi idual
h ea s, ideally by exp essing all possible scena ios
T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a
Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
19
pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003
ha may occu . The mos common ulne abili y
c i e ia closely ela ed o he ulne abili y analysis
include he numbe o laye s o p o ec ion, le el
o b eak h ough esis ance o mechanical es ain
sys ems in laye s o he p o ec ion sys em, mode
o physical p o ec ion, le el o compliance wi h
egime measu es h ough in e nal ope a ing ules,
possibili ies o ope a ion o exi g oups o p i a e
secu i y se ices, ac ics o using elemen s o ala m
sys ems and he le el o o he measu es o p o ec
he objec (Lukas, 2017).
Objec a ack scena ios can gene ally be di ided
in o p edic i e, no ma i e and non-no ma i e.
The ulne abili y can also be de e mined acco ding
o speci ic c i e ia and me hods. Among he mos
common ulne abili y de e mina ions, semi-
quan i a i e me hods a e used, which ul ima ely
de e mine he p obabili y o o e coming
he p o ec ion sys em, causing damage (nega i e
impac ) o he e e ence objec and i s asse s.
The esul ing p obabili y is usually exp essed in
he alue 0-1 o as a pe cen age o 0-100 %.
The highe he alue, he highe he alue o
he objec 's ulne abili y and he g ea e he chance
ha he h ea will cause ha m (nega i e impac ).
Since i is a semi-quan i a i e me hod, exp essing
he inal s a e h ough a desc ip ion is also a ma e
o exp essing he inal s a e. The mos commonly
used e ms a e on a scale om e y low ulne abili y
o e y high ulne abili y. I is also possible
o de e mine he inal alue o he ulne abili y
by sco ing. Based on speci ic c i e ia, a speci ic
alue is added o he gi en poin s. A e adding up
all he alues, he o al alue o he ulne abili y
is exp essed and exp essed as a pe cen age
(Ho ei e , 2015).
His o ical de elopmen o
he ulne abili y o he building
in i e p o ec ion
Fi e p o ec ion began o e ol e g adually wi h
he de elopmen o human socie y. This ype
o p o ec ion is one o he i s ypes o p o ec ion
deal wi h by he company. The i s men ion o
i e- igh ing o ganiza ional uni s da es back o ancien
Rome. The main eason o hese mo e massi e
i es was he cons uc ion o wooden dwellings.
The indi idual houses usually had wooden ceilings,
wooden u ni u e, and loo s, which signi ican ly
inc eased i e isk. The e o e, people a highe
educa ion le els add essed his issue and decided
on he co ec loca ion o houses and hei homes.
The signi ican disad an age o ha ime was
he possibili y o emo e he i e only wi h wa e .
Wa e was mos o en pumped om oun ains, wells,
i e s, s eams and lakes. Based on a mo e massi e
inc ease in i e cases, he so-called p e en i e
componen deal wi h moni o ing places and a eas
whe e i es occu mos o en. The i e's leading
causes we e sough , and hus he ulne abili y o
he gi en locali ies began o be assessed. The ecu ing
i e o ced him o build houses and dwellings om
mo e sui able ma e ials and no use a s aw on
he oo s o houses. La e , he so-called p e ec u e was
es ablished, which was in cha ge o enligh enmen
and p e en i e educa ional ac i i ies. In he ea ly
Middle Ages, i e p o ec ion ac i i ies we e di ided
among indi idual ci izens o municipali ies and
ci ies. Ci y ep esen a i es assessed he ulne abili y
o buildings and de e mined hei condi ions
wi hin he amewo k o i e p o ec ion. The main
eason was also he cons uc ion o houses and
dwellings om non-combus ible ma e ials. In
mode n imes, he ulne abili y wi hin buildings
began o be add essed by he i s gene al uni s,
which we e olun a y. As pa o he ulne abili y,
he i s i e egula ions we e issued by Empe o
Joseph II. in 1788. A he beginning o he 20 h
cen u y, i e p o ec ion ulne abili ies began
o be add essed abou anspo such as ains, ships,
ai ships and la e , mainly ai c a and au omobiles.
Vulne abili y in he con ex o i e p o ec ion was
also a ec ed by wo ld wa s, which caused massi e
i es o houses, s ee s, ehicles, indus ial pa ks,
o es s, meadows, ields, and he ulne abili y
o buildings o i e p o ec ion o haza dous
subs ances began. A e he end o he Second
Wo ld Wa , he in e es in i e p o ec ion began
o inc ease again. The ulne abili y o manu ac u ing
companies, apa men houses, amily houses and
he na u al en i onmen was mainly add essed.
Wi hin he amewo k o ulne abili y, wo k sa e y
has begun o be ins i u ionalized. Demand o i e
ex inguishe s began o inc ease. Va ious aining
and cou ses began o be c ea ed and implemen ed,
ocused on he co ec use and applica ion o
manu ac u ing companies' de ices and equipmen
(Weiss, 2015).
Since ancien imes, hey ha e ied o p edic
h ea s o i e p o ec ion and p epa e o possible
i es as a p ecau ion. O e ime and inc easing
he numbe o i e b igade membe s, a g oup
o people began o o m designed o p edic possible
u u e i es. These p edic ions we e p ima ily
ocused on iskie buildings buil o lammable
ma e ials o a highe i e incidence. The mos
signi ican p edic ing i e p o ec ion h ea s began
in he 20 h cen u y, whe e i e p e en ion associa ions
we e g adually o med.
T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a
Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
20
oxidizing agen (oxygen, pe oxide), combus ible
( uel) and combus ion ini ia o ( empe a u e, spa k).
The e o e, i is essen ial o ensu e no common
combina ion o all hese h ee a iables wi hin
he ulne abili y amewo k. Fac o s causing
a i e in he building include: na u al ( o example,
global wa ming, ea hquakes, loods, s o ms,
and o he s) and an h opogenic, which a e di ided
in o echnogenic ( o example, echnical acciden s,
a ic acciden s and o he s) and sociogenic
( o example in en ional igni ion, in en ional
explosion, negligence and o he s). Wi hin haza dous
subs ances, i is an assessmen o a pa icula class
o haza dous subs ance in he building. Classes
o dange ous subs ances a e ma ked nume ically
1-9 acco ding o he ype o dange ous subs ance
(Janasek, 2004).
The mos common way o ex inguishing a i e is
ex inguishing wi h i e nozzles, ex inguishing wi h
a sp ay gun, snow oam, and he use o unde g ound
and abo e-g ound hyd an s. Un il he i e p o ec ion
uni 's a i al, i is also essen ial o pu ou he i e
be o e i has a mo e massi e dimension. The mos
common means o ex inguishing a i e be o e
he a i al o a i e p o ec ion uni a e i e
ex inguishe s, wall hyd an s o sp inkle s.
To educe he building's ulne abili y, i is essen ial
o use he co ec i e ex inguishe s. A p esen ,
i e ex inguishe s can be di ided in o i e basic
ca ego ies: wa e , powde , oam, snow and halon.
The i e uni cu en ly de e mines he ulne abili y
o he building wi hin he i e p o ec ion based
on he ollowing da a: he e a e dange ous subs ances
in he building, ecu ing i es occu in he building,
he building is in a ha d- o- each place, he building
is a a longe dis ance om he i e s a ion, he e
a e pe sons in he building, he building has
an elec ic i e sys em o i e p o ec ion se ice
panel, he building has an app op ia e company
i e uni o depa men , loca ion o he building in
he gi en en i onmen , he building has a olun a y
i e b igade, numbe o people in he building and
he ypes o acili ies and equipmen a ailable o
he acili y.
P ognos ic me hod and
ulne abili y
The p ognos ic me hod is a se o p ocedu es
and ac i i ies in which p ognos ic me hods a e
used. These me hods exp ess a pa icula way
o exp essing he p ognosis o a gi en p oblem.
Applying a sui able me hod and i s c ea ion depends
on se e al ac o s, such as a ea, ype, scope and goal
o he p ognosis, ime ho izon, a ailable da a, and
The cu en s a e o assessmen
o he ulne abili y o he objec s
wi hin i e p o ec ion
When de e mining he ulne abili y o buildings
wi hin i e p o ec ion, i is essen ial o de e mine wha
ype o building i is, in which he en i onmen is
loca ed and whe he he h ea wi hin i e p o ec ion
will be a i e o explosion, which can be caused
by a ious ac o s-indi idual ac i i ies o educe
he ulne abili y o he building conce n legal and
na u al pe sons - en ep eneu s and municipali ies.
The mos common ac i i ies a e: ca ying ou
p e en i e i e inspec ions and elimina ing
iden i ied de iciencies, iden i ying places wi h
an inc eased isk o i e and ma king hem wi h
app op ia e o de s, p ohibi ions and ins uc ions,
p o iding aining and e i ica ion o knowledge
abou i e p o ec ion o employees and designa ed
pe sons, keeping documen a ion on i e p o ec ion,
ope a ion o echnical equipmen and echnological
equipmen , de e mina ion o i e cha ac e is ics
o p oduc s and subs ances and p inciples o hei
sa e use, elabo a ion o p ojec documen a ion
o buildings, ensu ing egula cleaning and
inspec ion o chimneys, i e sa e y du ing
ins alla ion and ope a ion o appliances, handling o
lammable subs ances, ins alla ion o sui able ypes
i e equipmen - i e ex inguishe s, co ec ma king
o accessible escape ou es, loca ion o he elec ic
i e sys em and p ope handling o i , main enance
o wa e sou ces o i e ex inguishing, o in case
o u he pumping, ca ying ou a i e ala m a
leas once a yea , se ing up he necessa y numbe
o i e ala ms, p epa ing an analysis o i e haza ds
in hei buildings and p emises, se ing up i e pa ols,
in case o i e con ac he ele an Fi e and Rescue
Se ice and p o ide he necessa y documen s o
he Fi e and Rescue Se ice Co ps when ca ying
ou i e igh ing o be e o ien a ion (Ac , 2001).
The en i onmen wi hin i e p o ec ion is di ided
in o na u al ( o example, o es s, moun ains,
i e s, pa ks, ca es, and o he s), echnical-wo king
( o example, indus ial pa ks, en e p ises,
echnical wa ehouses and o he s), ope a ional
( o example, o ices, schools, hospi als, shops,
banks, es au an s, chu ches and o he s), esiden ial
( o example, amily houses, apa men houses,
co ages, dwellings and o he s) and hei combina ion.
Fi e and he explosion o haza dous subs ances
a e cu en ly he main h ea s o i e p o ec ion.
The e o e, ulne abili y assessmen s mus ocus
mos on he occu ence and subsequen e ec s o
i e in he con ex o i e p o ec ion. Fi e occu s
in he p esence o he ollowing h ee quan i ies:
pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003
T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a
Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
21
2030 - ex apola ion o ends. This me hod is used
mainly o p ocess analyses o moni o ed objec s'
ch onological sequences in di e en ime anges
and mainly o c ea ing de elopmen endencies
o moni o ed objec s and in e es s in he u u e.
Ex apola ion o ends is a quan i a i e (subjec i e)
p ognos ic me hod, which deals wi h moni o ing
he selec ed indica o wi hin he de elopmen
councils and hei ex ension o he u u e. The s a ing
poin assumes ha he gi en alues o a iables
o p ocesses will de elop in he same di ec ion o
a di e en di ec ion in he u u e. Among he p ima y
o ms o p esen a ion o he esul s o his me hod a e
de elopmen cu es. These de elopmen cu es may
be in he o m o an ascending o descending line,
a cyclic o pe iodic line, a pa abola, an exponen ial,
o a combina ion. This me hod is also sui able and
used in se e al a eas, e.g. economy, demog aphy,
c ime, na u al esou ces, de elopmen o a ious
p ocesses, me eo ology and o he s. To de e mine and
p esen he esul s wi hin his me hod, i is essen ial
o display he issue g aphically (Valouch, 2016).
Based on he need o esea ch, analysis
and aining, he ollowing i e a eas ha e been
c ea ed. Fi e sa e y should be u he add essed:
cos -e ec i e i e supp ession sys ems, a ional i e
design app oaches, cha ac e iza ion o new ma e ials
o i e pe o mance, de elopmen o pe o mance-
based codes, i e haza d om wild i es. Based on he
a eas, he ollowing conclusion o his p ognosis can
be d awn:
• i e ep esen s a c i ical dange in bo h
de eloping and ad anced coun ies and models
an essen ial h ea o li e, s uc u e, ea u e,
and en i onmen al sa e y,
• mode n i e p o ec ion measu es lead o an
unquan i ied le el o i e sa e y in buildings,
p o ide minimum p ocedu es o dec ease i e
dange , and do no alue o con empo a y i e
isk issues,
• implemen ing key measu es ha include
imp o ing i e p o ec ion ea u es in buildings,
p ope egula ion and execu ion o building code
p o isions, enhancing public knowledge, and
p ope use o echnology and esou ces is i al
o mi iga ing i e isk in buildings,
• elemen al analysis and aining need o enhance
i e sa e y in buildings include imp o ing
cos -e ec i e i e supp ession sys ems, in elligen
i e design eques s, iden i ying new subs ances,
inc easing pe o mance-based sys ems, and
unde s anding i e isk om wild i es (Kodu ,
2019).
o he s. A combina ion o se e al p ognos ic me hods
can be used in he p ocessing o one p ognosis.
The p ima y di ision o p ognos ic me hods is
in o wo ca ego ies - quali a i e (subjec i e), based
on knowledge, expe ience and expe s, and
quan i a i e (objec i e), based on he applica ion
o indi idual da a om he pas , also called
s a is ically (Valouch, 2016).
The a icle deals wi h he classi ica ion
o p ognos ic me hods in o h ee g oups: uni e sal,
s uc u al and p ocessual. Uni e sal me hods
a e sui able o p ocessing se e al ypes wi hin
di e en pe iods and di e en a eas. This ca ego y
includes me hods: b ains o ming, he panel
o expe s, pa icipa o y me hods and u u e s a us
index. S uc u al me hods a e applied mainly in
he iden i ica ion and knowledge o he objec
o in e es and i s s uc u e. This ca ego y
includes me hods: he wheel o he u u e, he ee
o signi icance and mo phological analysis, c oss-
in e ac ions, ex analysis, c i ical echnologies
and a sys ems app oach. P ocessual me hods a e
used mainly o p ocess ch onological sequences
o moni o ed indica o s in di e en ime anges
and c ea e de elopmen ends in he u u e. This
ca ego y includes me hods: he Delphi me hod,
oad maps o science and echnology, decision
modelling, simula ions and games, scena io
building, p edic ions o geniuses o hei in ui ion
and ision, ex apola ion o ends and ime se ies,
end impac analysis and mega end analysis. This
a icle will deal wi h p edic ing he ulne abili y
o an objec in i e p o ec ion o speci ied pe iods.
These a e he yea s 2030, 2040 and 2050.
De elopmen p ognosis o 2030
The desc ip ion o he p ognos ic me hod
o ex apola ion o he end o e ime and i s speci ic
applica ion o a possible h ea wi hin he p ognosis
o he de elopmen o he objec 's ulne abili y o
he yea 2030 is based on he au ho 's subjec i e
es ima e. As pa o he p ognosis o he building's
ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion o 2030, i is
essen ial o iden i y he main h ea in i e p o ec ion.
The main h ea in 2030 is he e e -inc easing global
wa ming, causing d ough s and mo e nume ous i es.
Also, due o he d ying o he soil in wa e bodies,
he le el o i e s, s eams, dams and o he wa e
bodies is educed, he low amoun o wa e can cause
a lack o wa e in i e ex inguishing. Due o global
wa ming du ing he summe , hea y ains o en occu ,
which can cause mo e ex ensi e loods. Howe e ,
hese loods a e usually emo ed in ime. Wi hin
selec ing a sui able p ognos ic me hod o de e mining
he ulne abili y o he building in i e p o ec ion in
pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003
T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a
Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
22
F om Fig. 2, a highe numbe o wild i es in
a pa icula yea do no ce ainly mean a highe a ea
bu ned as he esul o wild i e depends on possible
uel and wea he condi ions. Consequen ly, e en
a iny numbe o wild i es can be dange ous o build
in as uc u e i hey change in o con lag a ions.
Also, he e a e cu en ly minimum da a in he esea ch
on c i ical di e ences in i e esponse o a s uc u e
subjec ed o wild i es and building i es om wi hin.
As buildings a e usually designed o i e p o ec ion
o 2-4 hou s only, i is impossible o economical
o design buildings o wi hs and wild i es, las ing
as long as ew days o a ew weeks. Consequen ly,
mo e ocus should be on apid e acua ion ins ead
o p o iding passi e i e esis ance. Fu he , he e
is a solid wan o s udy he beha iou o buildings
educed o wild i es as s udies a e de icien on
he same in li e a u e (Kodu , 2019).
The global wa ming si ua ion is closely linked
o he i e p o ec ion o buildings. As he empe a u e
o he en i onmen cons an ly inc eases, he soil
hea s up, hus lowe ing he wa e le el o he i e s.
Inc easing he empe a u e o he en i onmen also
causes he buildings in he en i onmen o hea up.
The way a building is hea ed depends on he ma e ial
om which he building is buil . The mos ypical
ma e ials include conc e e, b ick, i on, wood, s one
and hei combina ions.
To educe he empe a u e o building
su aces mo e e ec i ely, i is app op ia e o use
so-called "g een" ma e ials, which e ec i ely educe
he su ace empe a u e o buildings by sola ene gy.
The p oposed s uc u al ma e ials and sys ems
wi hin he "g een" include mass imbe , addi i e
manu ac u ing, in la ed s eel s uc u e, hempc e e,
ul a-high-pe o mance conc e e, ca bon i e
composi es and modula cons uc ion. The p oposed
ex e io ma e ials and sys ems wi hin he "g een"
include allusion panels, PET o acade sys em,
in e ac i e p in ed g aphene, no el biological
ma e ials, building in eg a ed ca bon cap u e, o ganic
insula ion, composi e window aming ma e ial,
mass imbe and imbe acade sys ems, ul a-high-
pe o mance conc e e, addi i e manu ac u ing
o 3D p in ing and hempc e e. I is also sui able
o use hea pumps and in e io elec onic ehicle
cha ge s wi hin building sys ems, and wi hin
he al e na i e ene gy sys em, i is sui able
o use ene gy s o age sys ems, building-in eg a ed
pho o ol aics, and sola adiance concen a ion. I is
also ad isable o use ou o plane geome ies wi hin
he acade ea u es. Wi hin si e, i is app op ia e
in he u u e o ocus on EES (ene gy s o age sys ems)
uel loads o haza ds, elec ic ehicle uel load o
cha ges, p opane ehicle haza ds, uel cell ehicle
Fig. 1 Ex apola ion o he end o e ime o 2030
Fig. 1 shows a classical g aph o he x and y-axis
ypes. The x-axis shows a hal -line wi h ime alues.
Speci ically, i is he yea 2021, and i p edic ed
he yea 2030. On he y-axis is he deg ee o
ulne abili y. The esul ing line shows he alue o
he h ea isk. The gi en line is exp essed
exponen ially and exp esses he isk o exposu e o
he h ea , speci ically he h ea o i e o explosion.
This h ea mainly conce ns global wa ming. I can
be seen om he pic u e ha wi h he inc easing
numbe o yea s, he le el o ulne abili y inc eases
and hus he isk o he h ea , in which case i is a i e
o explosion. G adual global wa ming causes g adual
wa ming o he ea h. Wa ming he ea h causes
he g adual d ying o s eams, i e s, lakes, dams,
ese oi s, and o he wa e bodies. G adual hea ing
o he ea h also inc eases he na u al en i onmen 's
d ying, such as o es s, meadows, ields and o he s.
These na u al en i onmen s o a eas a e mo e p one
o i e in his case. A signi ican disad an age is ha
mo e wa e is also essen ial o ex inguish he i e when
a i e occu s in hese mo e ex ensi e a eas. Howe e ,
due o he i e ex inguishing uni 's global wa ming,
wa e esou ces a e limi ed because he le el o
s eams, i e s, and o he wa e bodies is educed.
Based on he s a is ics and he de elopmen
o i e p o ec ion iola ions in case o i es,
he ollowing igu e shows he de elopmen o
he numbe o i es in he a eas o bu ning om 1999
o 2018 in he USA.
Fig. 2 A ea o bu ning place and numbe
o wild i es (Kodu , 2019)
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Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
23
ounds o indi idual le els o consequences. This
me hod can c ea e he so-called men al map o
he u u e ha can se e as a eedback ool. When
de e mining and p esen ing he esul s wi hin his
me hod, i is also essen ial o i s display he issue
g aphically (Valouch, 2016).
Fig. 4 The wheel o he u u e wi hin i e sa e y
F om Fig. 4, he main h ea ela ed o i e
p o ec ion in 2040 is i s selec ed. I is a h ea o
he ype o i e o explosion o elec ical equipmen .
Pe sonal consequences can be deduced om his
h ea , and hese a e he p ima y consequences
shown in yellow. The p ima y consequences o
a signi ican h ea such as a i e o explosiono
elec ical equipmen include inju y o dea h o an
employee, ailu e o machine y and equipmen ,
building damage, inancial asse s damage, p oduc ion
shu down, i e ex inguishing by a i e p o ec ion uni
and sys em ailu e. The e may o may no al eady
be a di ec ela ionship be ween he indi idual
p ima y consequences. Fo example, he p ima y
consequence o " i e ex inguishing" is ela ed
o ano he p ima y consequence o "damage o
a building", bu o example, he p ima y consequence
o "inju y o dea h o an employee" is no di ec ly
ela ed o he p ima y consequence o "damage o
inancial asse s". Each p ima y consequence o
a signi ican h ea , such as a i e o an explosion
o elec ical equipmen , has o he consequences,
called seconda y consequences. No ably,
he seconda y consequences a e no longe di ec ly
ela ed o he main h ea . Seconda y consequences
o he main h ea o i e o explosion o elec ical
equipmen include compensa ion - insu ance, epai
o machine y and equipmen , pu chase o new
machine y and equipmen , building epai , building
econs uc ion, loans, ising unemploymen , lack
o p oduc s, equipmen damage by liquida ion,
o he damage, pu chase o a new sys em, sys em
haza ds, bicycle s o age impac exi s, educed i e
depa men appa a us access, densi ica ion o i e
sp ead and elec ic ehicle cha ge s on building
ex e io (Meachan and McNamee, 2020).
De elopmen p ognosis o 2040
The desc ip ion o he p ognos ic me hod a ound
he u u e and i s speci ic applica ion o a possible
h ea wi hin he p ognos ic o he de elopmen
o he objec 's ulne abili y o 2040 is based on
he au ho 's subjec i e es ima e. As pa o
he p ognosis o de eloping he building's
ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion o 2040, i is
essen ial o de e mine he main h ea wi hin i e
p o ec ion. This p ima y h ea is p oposed due
o ig. 3, which shows he ypes o i e, whe e
he mos signi ican pe cen age is he i e o elec ical
equipmen . These da a we e collec ed om 2002
o 2018.
Fig. 3 Causes o i es (Eichho n, 2020)
The h ea o elec ici y is in ended o his
eason, as mo e and mo e people a e swi ching
o au oma ed p oduc ion, and mos esou ces a e
s a ing o ha e an au oma ed a ian . Special ca e
mus be aken abou hei sho -ci cui ing when
using many elec ical de ices, leading o a i e.
Wi hin selec ing a sui able p ognos ic me hod o
de e mining he ulne abili y o an objec in i e
p o ec ion in 2040, he s uc u al me hod is chosen
- he wheel o he u u e. This ype o me hods
wi hin he p ognos ic ac i i y is applied mainly
o iden i y and know he objec 's in e es and
s uc u e. The wheel o he u u e is a me hod
by which i is possible o iden i y and p esen
he consequences o e en s and de elopmen ends.
I is used mainly in iden i ying po en ial h ea s in
he u u e. The basis lies in he ini ial ep esen a ion
o he sol ed e en and he g adual addi ion o
con ex (consequences). This g adually c ea es
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Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
24
in ec i i y, i i abili y, explosi eness, lammabili y
and ca cinogenic p ope ies. A p esen , he p oblem
o c ea ing haza dous was e land ills emains
he no m. Wi h a g owing popula ion, he e is
a g owing demand o p oduc s and hus an inc ease
in he amoun o was e ha can be mo e o less
dange ous o human li es. As a pe ec example
o e e -inc easing was e, see Fig. 5, which co e s
he Uni ed S a es. Fig. 5 shows he inc easing
amoun o was e in onnes in he pe iod om 1960
o 2014. The was e is di ided in o du able goods,
nondu able goods, con aine s and packaging,
ood, ya d immings and o he was es - he a e
and amoun o was e inc eases in p opo ion o
he g owing popula ion.
Fig. 5 Gene a ion o p oduc s (EPA, 2016)
A less c i ical (seconda y) h ea o i e p o ec ion
should be a i e o explosion in single- amily homes
due o neglec o chimney cleaning ca e. This h ea
is iden i ied o his eason, as he e a e ewe and
ewe chimney sweeps a p esen , and i is expec ed
ha in he u u e, homeowne s will a ange hei
chimney cleaning ei he h ough ex e nal companies
o in o he ways. I is also impo an o ealise ha
in 2050 he company will make g ea e o s o
p omo e deca bonisa ion, which will also be e lec ed
in solid uels in households, whe e mos homes
should be hea ed by sola panels o geo he mal
ene gy. The h ea o i e due o neglec o chimney
cleaning ca e should mainly a ec esiden s o
amily houses o dwellings ou side owns and la ge
illages, whe e deca bonisa ion and he use o
sola panels o geo he mal ene gy will be minimal
non-exis en . Fu he mo e, since he e will no be
much demand o chimney sweeping ac i i ies in
he u u e, he numbe o chimney sweeps will
apidly be educed o a minimum. As he inspec ion
o chimneys is manda o y only be o e he app o al
i sel , i is likely ha many people will no clean
he chimneys a e he app o al and will g adually
o m signi ican soo in he chimneys, which will
epai and blackou . The e may also no be a di ec
ela ionship be ween he seconda y consequences
o he main h ea . The di ec ela ionship be ween
seconda y consequences can be di ec ly ela ed as
long as hey ha e a common p ima y consequence.
Wi hin each seconda y consequence, he e may be
ano he consequence, called a e ia y consequence.
Wi hin he e ia y consequence, ano he le el o
consequences may a ise. The p ima y and seconda y
consequences a e shown and p esen ed in he a icle
because hey a e mo e o less ela ed o he objec 's
main h ea . As he consequences de elop, he di ec
link o he main h ea dec eases.
As pa o he s a is ics o his p ognosis,
an analysis o he goals, s eng hs and weaknesses
o he esul s was c ea ed. The essen ial poin s
o he p ognosis goal include: highly desi able,
low-likelihood consequences (and policies o
managemen ac ions designed o inc ease hei
likelihood), highly undesi able, high-likelihood
consequences (and policies o managemen ac ions
designed o dec ease hei likelihood), su p ising
consequences and including hose ha could ha e
ca as ophic o ex ao dina ily posi i e impac s,
di e ences in sco ing om al e na i e poin s o
iew, in o ma ion and moni o ing needs o highly
unce ain de elopmen s (Bengs on, 2015).
S eng hs o his p ognosis a e: easily g asped
by pa icipan s, s imula es complex and sys ema ic
hinking, p o ides a clea isual map o complex
in e ac ions, lexibili y o esponden s, as da a
collec ion, no ansc ip ion o da a equi ed.
Weaknesses o his p ognosis a e: esul s a y
in consis ency, limi ed by knowledge and
pe cep ions o pa icipan s, in o ma ion o e load,
complex and ime-consuming da a analysis, highe
cos pe esponden , specula i e na u e o da a
(Benckendo , 2007).
De elopmen p ognosis o 2050
The desc ip ion o he p ognos ic me hod a ound
he u u e and i s speci ic applica ion o a possible
h ea wi hin he p ognosis o he de elopmen
o he objec 's ulne abili y o 2050 is based on
he au ho 's subjec i e es ima e. As pa o
he p ognosis o de eloping he building's
ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion o 2050, i is also
essen ial o de e mine he p ima y h ea wi hin
i e p o ec ion. The p ima y h ea o 2050 could
be c ea ing illegal land ills o haza dous was e,
which would endange heal h, he en i onmen and
he ecosys em. As he numbe o haza dous was e
land ills inc ease, so does he long- e m oxici y
o ai , soil and wa e . O he ha m ul p ope ies
o illegal land ill o ma ion include inc easing
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Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
25
he in e nal en i onmen , iden i ica ion o d i ing
o ces on he b oade en i onmen , anking
d i ing o ces acco ding o impo ance and deg ee
o unce ain y, de e mina ion o scena io logic,
comple ion o scena ios, managemen o all
implica ions and selec ion o key indica o s and
a iables measu ed by he change. Based on his
p ocedu e, h ee scena ios a e de e mined, which
will be hei combina ion h ough a c i ical pa h
(Valouch, 2016).
Based on he de elopmen o i e sa e y and
end scena ios, he ollowing ou p ima y goals
we e c ea ed wi hin he analysis and he c ea ion o
he i e sa e y scena io:
• he e mus be a clea -cu me hod o enginee s
o de ine he ange o possible le els o sa e y in
a me hod ha can be modi ied in o useable social
policy. Inpu s o models mus be de ined in
a o m ha p esen s i sel o he egula o y
p ocess; a he han being de ined by
he equi emen s o he models,
• enginee s canno expec o de ine he o m
in which public policy mus be made. Socie y
mus be a ailable o p o ec p ope y, ulne able
popula ions o insis on edundancy o ma gins
o sa e y,
• social sa e y le els and echnical speci ica ions
ha e o be p oduced in andem. A all s eps,
enginee s should a oid concealing social
decisions in echnical s anda ds,
• he e mus be clea echnical measu es adequa e
o managing a building's compliance wi h he
p emises in a i e sa e y analysis (B annigan,
1999).
Resul s o he de elopmen
p ognosis
Based on he de elopmen p ognosis o 2030,
2040 and 2050, hei esul s o each yea a e
e alua ed.
Resul s o he de elopmen p ognosis
o 2030
Wi hin he esul o he de elopmen p ognosis
o 2030, 3 esul s o he possible p ognoses a e
selec ed. I is an op imis ic, ealis ic and pessimis ic
p ognosis.
Realis ic p ognosis - he mos p obable u u e
si ua ion wi hin he se 3 p ognoses is a ealis ic
p ognosis. As pa o he ealis ic p ognosis,
he si ua ion ega ding global wa ming is ope a ing
and de e io a ing. The e is he g adual hea ing o
cause he chimneys o clog and la e cause a i e o
explosion g adually.
In selec ing a sui able p ognos ic me hod o
de e mining he ulne abili y o an objec in i e
p o ec ion in 2050, a p ocessual me hod is chosen -
scena io c ea ion. I is a o m o p ognosis p ocessing
ha desc ibes possible u u e de elopmen s a
a speci ic ime. The p ognosis o he de elopmen o
indi idual scena ios is based on he de elopmen al
connec ions be ween indi idual e en s. I ollows
ha a scena io is an a angemen o a ious o wa d-
looking s a emen s unde ce ain condi ions ha
may occu . They a e used o c ea e concep s and
s a egies in a ious a eas. I is one o he mos used
me hods. The c ea ion is based on he assump ion
ha he u u e canno be p edic ed p ecisely, and i
ollows ha a ious al e na i es can be conside ed.
The scena ios' aim is a sys ema ic examina ion and
c ea ion o possible, p obable s a es o he u u e.
As pa o c ea ing a scena io wi hin he amewo k
o i e p o ec ion o he yea 2050, an explo a o y
scena io is selec ed, which desc ibes wha may
happen in he u u e i speci ic p ocedu es a e
pe o med. In pa icula , i is a p ognosis o
he de elopmen o he ulne abili y o amily
houses, in which a i e o explosion may occu due
o inco ec o no ac i i y associa ed wi h he cleaning
o chimneys. Fi s , i is essen ial o de e mine
he ype o scena io acco ding o he classi ica ion.
Wi hin he classi ica ion poin o iew, he selec ed
ype o scena io is:
• deg ee o no ma i i y - desc ip i e scena io -
a desc ip ion o he p ognosis o a possible u u e
si ua ion,
• p ocessing a e - an indica ed scena io - is no
subs an ia ed by scien i ic claims,
• con en - speci ic - ocused mainly on one
sec ion,
• quan i ica ion - pa ially quan i ied - compa ing
alues o end cha ac e is ics,
• ime ho izon - long- e m - de elopmen p ognosis
o 2050,
• he low o ime - p ospec i e - de elopmen
om he p esen o he u u e,
• unc ion - explo a o y scena io - possible
si ua ion in he u u e unde cu en condi ions,
• p ocessing me hodology - logic based on
ex apola ion o ends - de elopmen o
he p esen and p olonging possible u u e s a es.
Ano he c i ical poin in c ea ing a scena io
is he p ocess. The gene al p ocess o explo a o y
scena ios is he iden i ica ion o c i ical opics
and p oblems, iden i ica ion o c i ical ac o s in
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Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238
Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021
26
explosion o elec ical equipmen . I is assumed ha
he e will be a signi ican powe gain, and indi idual
sys ems may no wo k co ec ly. The wo s pa
o i e p o ec ion is i he e a e equen ailu es
in elec ical i e sys ems. A signi ican ulne abili y,
such as a i e o an explosion o elec ical equipmen ,
has many o he consequences. This high le el o
ulne abili y can nega i ely a ec he en i e sys em
o objec p o ec ion. Based on Fig. 3, i is essen ial
ha he company p ima ily add esses and add esses
h ea s in pa icula and seconda ily add esses less
dange ous h ea s h ea ening objec p o ec ion
sys ems.
Resul s o he de elopmen p ognosis
o 2050
The esul o he de elopmen p ognosis o
2050 is o p ima y h ea - he c ea ion o illegal
land ills o haza dous was e is a p oposal o
p e en i e and ep essi e measu es. The main
p e en i e measu es include: inc easing con ols o
p e en u he illegal land ills, c ea ion o goods
o consume s om less dange ous (al e na i e)
p oduc s, s eng hen legisla ion o add ess illegal
land ills and s eng hening he ecosys em wi h
he expansion o o es s, ese oi s and dams, s eams
and i e s. The main ep essi e measu es include
disposal o illegal land ills o haza dous was e and
s opping he sp ead o haza dous subs ances om
illegal land ills o haza dous was e o he soil, wa e
o ai . The esul o he de elopmen p ognosis o
2050 is o seconda y h ea - chimney cleaning
ca e is c ea ing a c i ical pa h om a combina ion
o possible ou come scena ios. The c i ical pa h is
shown in ig. 6. The p ognosis o 2050 is mainly
in ended o esiden s o houses and dwellings
loca ed ou side owns and la ge illages, whe e
chimney hea ing o households will s ill be used.
Fig. 6 is a g aphical ep esen a ion o he c i ical
pa h o he issue. The ec angles con ain he beginning
and end o he p ocess. The indi idual p ocesses o
he c i ical pa h a e loca ed in he ci cles. The e a e
numbe s be ween he indi idual p ocesses. These
numbe s exp ess he alue o he impo ance o
he gi en p ocess. The indi idual alues o he numbe s
a e calcula ed based on he p og ess o ac i i ies.
The esul ing s a e exp esses he gi en alue-
he highe he nume ical alue, he mo e e icien he
p ocess. The mos e ec i e p ocess is he ollowing
poin s: S a o he p ocess → S ic e legisla ion
→ Fi e p o ec ion p e en o → P o essional
i e igh e s → Con ols o sanc ions → Se ing
a deadline → Cleaning p ocess → Au oma ic
e-o de → Elec onic da abase → P ocess
e alua ion ( o al numbe o poin s - 19). The leas
he g ound, which causes d yness and, as a esul ,
mo e equen i es. The le el o i e s, s eams,
dams and o he wa e bodies is d ying up, bu he e
is s ill enough wa e o he e en ual ex inguishing
o i es. Du ing he summe , hea y ains o en occu ,
which can cause mo e ex ensi e loods. Howe e ,
hese loods a e usually emo ed in ime.
Op imis ic p ognosis - he p obabili y ha
he op imis ic p ognosis will be ul illed is less han
he ealis ic p ognosis. As pa o he op imis ic
p ognosis, global wa ming is beginning o imp o e,
and he numbe o i es caused by his wa ming is
also dec easing. The le el o i e s, s eams, dams
and o he wa e bodies is s able, and he si ua ion
is ideal. Occasional ains do no cause any ele a ed
i e le els and hus no loods.
Pessimis ic p ognosis - he p obabili y ha
he pessimis ic p ognosis will be ul illed is
also less han he ealis ic p ognosis. As pa o
he pessimis ic p ognosis, he si ua ion ega ding
global wa ming is de e io a ing signi ican ly.
Lakes, i e s, s eams and o he bodies o wa e a e
comple ely d y. The numbe o i es is ising apidly,
and he e is a signi ican wa e sho age o pu ou
he i e. The emendous hea c ea es massi e and
hea y ains, which cause ex ensi e loods and
can lood many buildings con aining haza dous
subs ances. This can cause explosions and o he
massi e and ex ensi e i es. Due o he inc easing
numbe o i es and loods, he e a e ew i e
p o ec ion uni s o possible o he eme gency e en s
ela ed o i e p o ec ion.
The esul o he i e sa e y p ognosis o buildings
is o change he building ma e ial and su ace
o buildings and eplace i wi h “g een” ma e ial,
which educes and e ec i ely educes he isk o
i e due o global wa ming, which causes a g adual
inc ease in empe a u e due o yea s and hus hea ing
buildings and equipmen a e loca ed in buildings.
Wi hin he p oposal “g een” ma e ials, using hese
p oposed s uc u es and sys ems in buildings would
no lead o a highe isk o i e o explosion o
haza dous subs ances due o global wa ming, subjec
o s ic egula o y condi ions. Mo e signi ican
amoun s o elec ici y can also cause a i e haza d,
bu he isk is low i he necessa y condi ions a e
me .
Resul s o he de elopmen p ognosis
o 2040
The cu en end o au oma ion o de ices and
equipmen is s ill ising. In 2040, i is assumed ha
he main and, simul aneously, he mos signi ican
ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion could be a i e o an
pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003