Prognosis for the Development of Vulnerability of Objects within the Fire Protection

T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 18 pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 PROGNOSIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VULNERABILITY OF OBJECTS WITHIN THE FIRE PROTECTION Adam MALATINSKÝ1, Ma in HROMADA2 1 Tomas Ba a Uni e si y in Zlín, Facul y o Applied In o ma ics, Zlín, Czech Republic, [email p o ec ed], 2 Tomas Ba a Uni e si y in Zlín, Facul y o Applied In o ma ics, Zlín, Czech Republic, [email p o ec ed] Abs ac : The a icle deals wi h he p ognosis o he de elopmen o ulne abili y o objec s wi hin i e p o ec ion. The a icle de ines ulne abili y, i s signi icance, causes, analysis, c i e ia and de e mina ion. The ollowing sec ion deals wi h a b ie his o ical de elopmen o he ulne abili y o buildings in i e p o ec ion, ollowed by a sec ion on he cu en s a e o ulne abili y o buildings in i e p o ec ion. The ollowing pa s o he a icle deal wi h he p ognosis o he de elopmen o objec s' ulne abili y o he yea s 2030, 2040 and 2050. The p ognos ic me hod, desc ip ion, applica ion, and inal esul o he p ognosis a e chosen wi hin hese pa s. Keywo ds: P ognosis, Vulne abili y, Fi e Sa e y, P ognos ic Me hod, Sa e y. Resea ch a icle In oduc ion Sa e y and a sense o sa e y a e among he basic needs o a pe son o he good li e. The e o e, ypes o sa e y began o eme ge in a ious o ms, which we e ans o med con inuously and upda ed wi h socie y's de elopmen , depending on he cu en si ua ion. Fi e sa e y is also one o he oldes ypes o sa e y. Due o he mo e signi ican impac o i e p o ec ion h ea s, he demand o i e sa e y has begun o de elop in he pas . G adually, smalle uni s began o be c ea ed aimed a p o ec ing he popula ion and p ope y om i es. Wi h he company's de elopmen , hese uni s began o expand and in eg a e un il associa ions wi h a common in e es in i e p o ec ion began o eme ge. G adually, olun a y i e b igades began o de elop, whose ask was o p o ec he popula ion and p ope y wi hin i e p o ec ion. Due o he e e -inc easing demand o i e sa e y, p o essional i e p o ec ion uni s ha e been c ea ed. These p o essional uni s wi h olun a y i e p o ec ion uni s cu en ly o m one la ge in eg a ed uni , whose ask is escue and liquida ion wo k du ing eme gencies and also, in addi ion o ep essi e ac i i ies, also he implemen a ion o p e en i e ac i i ies. Wi hin he amewo k o i e isk in a mo e global p edic i e sense, i is impo an o ocus p ima ily on h ea s ela ed o he o igin and e ec o i e, he explosion o haza dous subs ances, lood managemen , cons an ly imp o ing he esponsi eness o i e p o ec ion uni s o echnical in e en ions such as a ic acciden s, emo ing ees om oads, ecological calami ies, conduc ing egula inspec ion and ac ical exe cises, coope a ion wi h ci ies and ins i u ions and he like. This a icle ocuses on he p ognosis o de eloping he objec 's ulne abili y o he yea s 2030, 2040 and 2050 using sui able p ognos ic me hods. The a icle desc ibes he ulne abili y and cu en ulne abili y o he building wi hin he i e p o ec ion wi hin he indi idual pa s. Based on he cu en s a e's analysis, a pa is concei ed, ocused on he de elopmen p ognoses hemsel es. Fi s , he p ognos ic me hod o indi idual yea s is chosen. The esul ing s a e is a p ognosis o de eloping he building o company's ulne abili y wi hin he i e p o ec ion. Vulne abili y Vulne abili y gene ally exp esses he weakness o an objec and i s asse s, h ough which secu i y can be comp omised. Vulne abili y can also be de ined as an amoun exp essing he ease wi h which an objec can be damaged. I also exp esses he suscep ibili y o he p o ec ed in e es o damage. I s mos common causes include he omission o a h ea , igno ance o he h ea o a new ha m ul e ec . The e o e, i is essen ial o c ea e a ulne abili y analysis, in which an es ima e is made o he p obabili y ha he h ea will occu and cause damage o he building and i s asse s. The ulne abili y analysis aims o assess he measu es aken agains indi idual h ea s, ideally by exp essing all possible scena ios T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 19 pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 ha may occu . The mos common ulne abili y c i e ia closely ela ed o he ulne abili y analysis include he numbe o laye s o p o ec ion, le el o b eak h ough esis ance o mechanical es ain sys ems in laye s o he p o ec ion sys em, mode o physical p o ec ion, le el o compliance wi h egime measu es h ough in e nal ope a ing ules, possibili ies o ope a ion o exi g oups o p i a e secu i y se ices, ac ics o using elemen s o ala m sys ems and he le el o o he measu es o p o ec he objec (Lukas, 2017). Objec a ack scena ios can gene ally be di ided in o p edic i e, no ma i e and non-no ma i e. The ulne abili y can also be de e mined acco ding o speci ic c i e ia and me hods. Among he mos common ulne abili y de e mina ions, semi- quan i a i e me hods a e used, which ul ima ely de e mine he p obabili y o o e coming he p o ec ion sys em, causing damage (nega i e impac ) o he e e ence objec and i s asse s. The esul ing p obabili y is usually exp essed in he alue 0-1 o as a pe cen age o 0-100 %. The highe he alue, he highe he alue o he objec 's ulne abili y and he g ea e he chance ha he h ea will cause ha m (nega i e impac ). Since i is a semi-quan i a i e me hod, exp essing he inal s a e h ough a desc ip ion is also a ma e o exp essing he inal s a e. The mos commonly used e ms a e on a scale om e y low ulne abili y o e y high ulne abili y. I is also possible o de e mine he inal alue o he ulne abili y by sco ing. Based on speci ic c i e ia, a speci ic alue is added o he gi en poin s. A e adding up all he alues, he o al alue o he ulne abili y is exp essed and exp essed as a pe cen age (Ho ei e , 2015). His o ical de elopmen o he ulne abili y o he building in i e p o ec ion Fi e p o ec ion began o e ol e g adually wi h he de elopmen o human socie y. This ype o p o ec ion is one o he i s ypes o p o ec ion deal wi h by he company. The i s men ion o i e- igh ing o ganiza ional uni s da es back o ancien Rome. The main eason o hese mo e massi e i es was he cons uc ion o wooden dwellings. The indi idual houses usually had wooden ceilings, wooden u ni u e, and loo s, which signi ican ly inc eased i e isk. The e o e, people a highe educa ion le els add essed his issue and decided on he co ec loca ion o houses and hei homes. The signi ican disad an age o ha ime was he possibili y o emo e he i e only wi h wa e . Wa e was mos o en pumped om oun ains, wells, i e s, s eams and lakes. Based on a mo e massi e inc ease in i e cases, he so-called p e en i e componen deal wi h moni o ing places and a eas whe e i es occu mos o en. The i e's leading causes we e sough , and hus he ulne abili y o he gi en locali ies began o be assessed. The ecu ing i e o ced him o build houses and dwellings om mo e sui able ma e ials and no use a s aw on he oo s o houses. La e , he so-called p e ec u e was es ablished, which was in cha ge o enligh enmen and p e en i e educa ional ac i i ies. In he ea ly Middle Ages, i e p o ec ion ac i i ies we e di ided among indi idual ci izens o municipali ies and ci ies. Ci y ep esen a i es assessed he ulne abili y o buildings and de e mined hei condi ions wi hin he amewo k o i e p o ec ion. The main eason was also he cons uc ion o houses and dwellings om non-combus ible ma e ials. In mode n imes, he ulne abili y wi hin buildings began o be add essed by he i s gene al uni s, which we e olun a y. As pa o he ulne abili y, he i s i e egula ions we e issued by Empe o Joseph II. in 1788. A he beginning o he 20 h cen u y, i e p o ec ion ulne abili ies began o be add essed abou anspo such as ains, ships, ai ships and la e , mainly ai c a and au omobiles. Vulne abili y in he con ex o i e p o ec ion was also a ec ed by wo ld wa s, which caused massi e i es o houses, s ee s, ehicles, indus ial pa ks, o es s, meadows, ields, and he ulne abili y o buildings o i e p o ec ion o haza dous subs ances began. A e he end o he Second Wo ld Wa , he in e es in i e p o ec ion began o inc ease again. The ulne abili y o manu ac u ing companies, apa men houses, amily houses and he na u al en i onmen was mainly add essed. Wi hin he amewo k o ulne abili y, wo k sa e y has begun o be ins i u ionalized. Demand o i e ex inguishe s began o inc ease. Va ious aining and cou ses began o be c ea ed and implemen ed, ocused on he co ec use and applica ion o manu ac u ing companies' de ices and equipmen (Weiss, 2015). Since ancien imes, hey ha e ied o p edic h ea s o i e p o ec ion and p epa e o possible i es as a p ecau ion. O e ime and inc easing he numbe o i e b igade membe s, a g oup o people began o o m designed o p edic possible u u e i es. These p edic ions we e p ima ily ocused on iskie buildings buil o lammable ma e ials o a highe i e incidence. The mos signi ican p edic ing i e p o ec ion h ea s began in he 20 h cen u y, whe e i e p e en ion associa ions we e g adually o med. T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 20 oxidizing agen (oxygen, pe oxide), combus ible ( uel) and combus ion ini ia o ( empe a u e, spa k). The e o e, i is essen ial o ensu e no common combina ion o all hese h ee a iables wi hin he ulne abili y amewo k. Fac o s causing a i e in he building include: na u al ( o example, global wa ming, ea hquakes, loods, s o ms, and o he s) and an h opogenic, which a e di ided in o echnogenic ( o example, echnical acciden s, a ic acciden s and o he s) and sociogenic ( o example in en ional igni ion, in en ional explosion, negligence and o he s). Wi hin haza dous subs ances, i is an assessmen o a pa icula class o haza dous subs ance in he building. Classes o dange ous subs ances a e ma ked nume ically 1-9 acco ding o he ype o dange ous subs ance (Janasek, 2004). The mos common way o ex inguishing a i e is ex inguishing wi h i e nozzles, ex inguishing wi h a sp ay gun, snow oam, and he use o unde g ound and abo e-g ound hyd an s. Un il he i e p o ec ion uni 's a i al, i is also essen ial o pu ou he i e be o e i has a mo e massi e dimension. The mos common means o ex inguishing a i e be o e he a i al o a i e p o ec ion uni a e i e ex inguishe s, wall hyd an s o sp inkle s. To educe he building's ulne abili y, i is essen ial o use he co ec i e ex inguishe s. A p esen , i e ex inguishe s can be di ided in o i e basic ca ego ies: wa e , powde , oam, snow and halon. The i e uni cu en ly de e mines he ulne abili y o he building wi hin he i e p o ec ion based on he ollowing da a: he e a e dange ous subs ances in he building, ecu ing i es occu in he building, he building is in a ha d- o- each place, he building is a a longe dis ance om he i e s a ion, he e a e pe sons in he building, he building has an elec ic i e sys em o i e p o ec ion se ice panel, he building has an app op ia e company i e uni o depa men , loca ion o he building in he gi en en i onmen , he building has a olun a y i e b igade, numbe o people in he building and he ypes o acili ies and equipmen a ailable o he acili y. P ognos ic me hod and ulne abili y The p ognos ic me hod is a se o p ocedu es and ac i i ies in which p ognos ic me hods a e used. These me hods exp ess a pa icula way o exp essing he p ognosis o a gi en p oblem. Applying a sui able me hod and i s c ea ion depends on se e al ac o s, such as a ea, ype, scope and goal o he p ognosis, ime ho izon, a ailable da a, and The cu en s a e o assessmen o he ulne abili y o he objec s wi hin i e p o ec ion When de e mining he ulne abili y o buildings wi hin i e p o ec ion, i is essen ial o de e mine wha ype o building i is, in which he en i onmen is loca ed and whe he he h ea wi hin i e p o ec ion will be a i e o explosion, which can be caused by a ious ac o s-indi idual ac i i ies o educe he ulne abili y o he building conce n legal and na u al pe sons - en ep eneu s and municipali ies. The mos common ac i i ies a e: ca ying ou p e en i e i e inspec ions and elimina ing iden i ied de iciencies, iden i ying places wi h an inc eased isk o i e and ma king hem wi h app op ia e o de s, p ohibi ions and ins uc ions, p o iding aining and e i ica ion o knowledge abou i e p o ec ion o employees and designa ed pe sons, keeping documen a ion on i e p o ec ion, ope a ion o echnical equipmen and echnological equipmen , de e mina ion o i e cha ac e is ics o p oduc s and subs ances and p inciples o hei sa e use, elabo a ion o p ojec documen a ion o buildings, ensu ing egula cleaning and inspec ion o chimneys, i e sa e y du ing ins alla ion and ope a ion o appliances, handling o lammable subs ances, ins alla ion o sui able ypes i e equipmen - i e ex inguishe s, co ec ma king o accessible escape ou es, loca ion o he elec ic i e sys em and p ope handling o i , main enance o wa e sou ces o i e ex inguishing, o in case o u he pumping, ca ying ou a i e ala m a leas once a yea , se ing up he necessa y numbe o i e ala ms, p epa ing an analysis o i e haza ds in hei buildings and p emises, se ing up i e pa ols, in case o i e con ac he ele an Fi e and Rescue Se ice and p o ide he necessa y documen s o he Fi e and Rescue Se ice Co ps when ca ying ou i e igh ing o be e o ien a ion (Ac , 2001). The en i onmen wi hin i e p o ec ion is di ided in o na u al ( o example, o es s, moun ains, i e s, pa ks, ca es, and o he s), echnical-wo king ( o example, indus ial pa ks, en e p ises, echnical wa ehouses and o he s), ope a ional ( o example, o ices, schools, hospi als, shops, banks, es au an s, chu ches and o he s), esiden ial ( o example, amily houses, apa men houses, co ages, dwellings and o he s) and hei combina ion. Fi e and he explosion o haza dous subs ances a e cu en ly he main h ea s o i e p o ec ion. The e o e, ulne abili y assessmen s mus ocus mos on he occu ence and subsequen e ec s o i e in he con ex o i e p o ec ion. Fi e occu s in he p esence o he ollowing h ee quan i ies: pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 21 2030 - ex apola ion o ends. This me hod is used mainly o p ocess analyses o moni o ed objec s' ch onological sequences in di e en ime anges and mainly o c ea ing de elopmen endencies o moni o ed objec s and in e es s in he u u e. Ex apola ion o ends is a quan i a i e (subjec i e) p ognos ic me hod, which deals wi h moni o ing he selec ed indica o wi hin he de elopmen councils and hei ex ension o he u u e. The s a ing poin assumes ha he gi en alues o a iables o p ocesses will de elop in he same di ec ion o a di e en di ec ion in he u u e. Among he p ima y o ms o p esen a ion o he esul s o his me hod a e de elopmen cu es. These de elopmen cu es may be in he o m o an ascending o descending line, a cyclic o pe iodic line, a pa abola, an exponen ial, o a combina ion. This me hod is also sui able and used in se e al a eas, e.g. economy, demog aphy, c ime, na u al esou ces, de elopmen o a ious p ocesses, me eo ology and o he s. To de e mine and p esen he esul s wi hin his me hod, i is essen ial o display he issue g aphically (Valouch, 2016). Based on he need o esea ch, analysis and aining, he ollowing i e a eas ha e been c ea ed. Fi e sa e y should be u he add essed: cos -e ec i e i e supp ession sys ems, a ional i e design app oaches, cha ac e iza ion o new ma e ials o i e pe o mance, de elopmen o pe o mance- based codes, i e haza d om wild i es. Based on he a eas, he ollowing conclusion o his p ognosis can be d awn: • i e ep esen s a c i ical dange in bo h de eloping and ad anced coun ies and models an essen ial h ea o li e, s uc u e, ea u e, and en i onmen al sa e y, • mode n i e p o ec ion measu es lead o an unquan i ied le el o i e sa e y in buildings, p o ide minimum p ocedu es o dec ease i e dange , and do no alue o con empo a y i e isk issues, • implemen ing key measu es ha include imp o ing i e p o ec ion ea u es in buildings, p ope egula ion and execu ion o building code p o isions, enhancing public knowledge, and p ope use o echnology and esou ces is i al o mi iga ing i e isk in buildings, • elemen al analysis and aining need o enhance i e sa e y in buildings include imp o ing cos -e ec i e i e supp ession sys ems, in elligen i e design eques s, iden i ying new subs ances, inc easing pe o mance-based sys ems, and unde s anding i e isk om wild i es (Kodu , 2019). o he s. A combina ion o se e al p ognos ic me hods can be used in he p ocessing o one p ognosis. The p ima y di ision o p ognos ic me hods is in o wo ca ego ies - quali a i e (subjec i e), based on knowledge, expe ience and expe s, and quan i a i e (objec i e), based on he applica ion o indi idual da a om he pas , also called s a is ically (Valouch, 2016). The a icle deals wi h he classi ica ion o p ognos ic me hods in o h ee g oups: uni e sal, s uc u al and p ocessual. Uni e sal me hods a e sui able o p ocessing se e al ypes wi hin di e en pe iods and di e en a eas. This ca ego y includes me hods: b ains o ming, he panel o expe s, pa icipa o y me hods and u u e s a us index. S uc u al me hods a e applied mainly in he iden i ica ion and knowledge o he objec o in e es and i s s uc u e. This ca ego y includes me hods: he wheel o he u u e, he ee o signi icance and mo phological analysis, c oss- in e ac ions, ex analysis, c i ical echnologies and a sys ems app oach. P ocessual me hods a e used mainly o p ocess ch onological sequences o moni o ed indica o s in di e en ime anges and c ea e de elopmen ends in he u u e. This ca ego y includes me hods: he Delphi me hod, oad maps o science and echnology, decision modelling, simula ions and games, scena io building, p edic ions o geniuses o hei in ui ion and ision, ex apola ion o ends and ime se ies, end impac analysis and mega end analysis. This a icle will deal wi h p edic ing he ulne abili y o an objec in i e p o ec ion o speci ied pe iods. These a e he yea s 2030, 2040 and 2050. De elopmen p ognosis o 2030 The desc ip ion o he p ognos ic me hod o ex apola ion o he end o e ime and i s speci ic applica ion o a possible h ea wi hin he p ognosis o he de elopmen o he objec 's ulne abili y o he yea 2030 is based on he au ho 's subjec i e es ima e. As pa o he p ognosis o he building's ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion o 2030, i is essen ial o iden i y he main h ea in i e p o ec ion. The main h ea in 2030 is he e e -inc easing global wa ming, causing d ough s and mo e nume ous i es. Also, due o he d ying o he soil in wa e bodies, he le el o i e s, s eams, dams and o he wa e bodies is educed, he low amoun o wa e can cause a lack o wa e in i e ex inguishing. Due o global wa ming du ing he summe , hea y ains o en occu , which can cause mo e ex ensi e loods. Howe e , hese loods a e usually emo ed in ime. Wi hin selec ing a sui able p ognos ic me hod o de e mining he ulne abili y o he building in i e p o ec ion in pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 22 F om Fig. 2, a highe numbe o wild i es in a pa icula yea do no ce ainly mean a highe a ea bu ned as he esul o wild i e depends on possible uel and wea he condi ions. Consequen ly, e en a iny numbe o wild i es can be dange ous o build in as uc u e i hey change in o con lag a ions. Also, he e a e cu en ly minimum da a in he esea ch on c i ical di e ences in i e esponse o a s uc u e subjec ed o wild i es and building i es om wi hin. As buildings a e usually designed o i e p o ec ion o 2-4 hou s only, i is impossible o economical o design buildings o wi hs and wild i es, las ing as long as ew days o a ew weeks. Consequen ly, mo e ocus should be on apid e acua ion ins ead o p o iding passi e i e esis ance. Fu he , he e is a solid wan o s udy he beha iou o buildings educed o wild i es as s udies a e de icien on he same in li e a u e (Kodu , 2019). The global wa ming si ua ion is closely linked o he i e p o ec ion o buildings. As he empe a u e o he en i onmen cons an ly inc eases, he soil hea s up, hus lowe ing he wa e le el o he i e s. Inc easing he empe a u e o he en i onmen also causes he buildings in he en i onmen o hea up. The way a building is hea ed depends on he ma e ial om which he building is buil . The mos ypical ma e ials include conc e e, b ick, i on, wood, s one and hei combina ions. To educe he empe a u e o building su aces mo e e ec i ely, i is app op ia e o use so-called "g een" ma e ials, which e ec i ely educe he su ace empe a u e o buildings by sola ene gy. The p oposed s uc u al ma e ials and sys ems wi hin he "g een" include mass imbe , addi i e manu ac u ing, in la ed s eel s uc u e, hempc e e, ul a-high-pe o mance conc e e, ca bon i e composi es and modula cons uc ion. The p oposed ex e io ma e ials and sys ems wi hin he "g een" include allusion panels, PET o acade sys em, in e ac i e p in ed g aphene, no el biological ma e ials, building in eg a ed ca bon cap u e, o ganic insula ion, composi e window aming ma e ial, mass imbe and imbe acade sys ems, ul a-high- pe o mance conc e e, addi i e manu ac u ing o 3D p in ing and hempc e e. I is also sui able o use hea pumps and in e io elec onic ehicle cha ge s wi hin building sys ems, and wi hin he al e na i e ene gy sys em, i is sui able o use ene gy s o age sys ems, building-in eg a ed pho o ol aics, and sola adiance concen a ion. I is also ad isable o use ou o plane geome ies wi hin he acade ea u es. Wi hin si e, i is app op ia e in he u u e o ocus on EES (ene gy s o age sys ems) uel loads o haza ds, elec ic ehicle uel load o cha ges, p opane ehicle haza ds, uel cell ehicle Fig. 1 Ex apola ion o he end o e ime o 2030 Fig. 1 shows a classical g aph o he x and y-axis ypes. The x-axis shows a hal -line wi h ime alues. Speci ically, i is he yea 2021, and i p edic ed he yea 2030. On he y-axis is he deg ee o ulne abili y. The esul ing line shows he alue o he h ea isk. The gi en line is exp essed exponen ially and exp esses he isk o exposu e o he h ea , speci ically he h ea o i e o explosion. This h ea mainly conce ns global wa ming. I can be seen om he pic u e ha wi h he inc easing numbe o yea s, he le el o ulne abili y inc eases and hus he isk o he h ea , in which case i is a i e o explosion. G adual global wa ming causes g adual wa ming o he ea h. Wa ming he ea h causes he g adual d ying o s eams, i e s, lakes, dams, ese oi s, and o he wa e bodies. G adual hea ing o he ea h also inc eases he na u al en i onmen 's d ying, such as o es s, meadows, ields and o he s. These na u al en i onmen s o a eas a e mo e p one o i e in his case. A signi ican disad an age is ha mo e wa e is also essen ial o ex inguish he i e when a i e occu s in hese mo e ex ensi e a eas. Howe e , due o he i e ex inguishing uni 's global wa ming, wa e esou ces a e limi ed because he le el o s eams, i e s, and o he wa e bodies is educed. Based on he s a is ics and he de elopmen o i e p o ec ion iola ions in case o i es, he ollowing igu e shows he de elopmen o he numbe o i es in he a eas o bu ning om 1999 o 2018 in he USA. Fig. 2 A ea o bu ning place and numbe o wild i es (Kodu , 2019) pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 23 ounds o indi idual le els o consequences. This me hod can c ea e he so-called men al map o he u u e ha can se e as a eedback ool. When de e mining and p esen ing he esul s wi hin his me hod, i is also essen ial o i s display he issue g aphically (Valouch, 2016). Fig. 4 The wheel o he u u e wi hin i e sa e y F om Fig. 4, he main h ea ela ed o i e p o ec ion in 2040 is i s selec ed. I is a h ea o he ype o i e o explosion o elec ical equipmen . Pe sonal consequences can be deduced om his h ea , and hese a e he p ima y consequences shown in yellow. The p ima y consequences o a signi ican h ea such as a i e o explosiono elec ical equipmen include inju y o dea h o an employee, ailu e o machine y and equipmen , building damage, inancial asse s damage, p oduc ion shu down, i e ex inguishing by a i e p o ec ion uni and sys em ailu e. The e may o may no al eady be a di ec ela ionship be ween he indi idual p ima y consequences. Fo example, he p ima y consequence o " i e ex inguishing" is ela ed o ano he p ima y consequence o "damage o a building", bu o example, he p ima y consequence o "inju y o dea h o an employee" is no di ec ly ela ed o he p ima y consequence o "damage o inancial asse s". Each p ima y consequence o a signi ican h ea , such as a i e o an explosion o elec ical equipmen , has o he consequences, called seconda y consequences. No ably, he seconda y consequences a e no longe di ec ly ela ed o he main h ea . Seconda y consequences o he main h ea o i e o explosion o elec ical equipmen include compensa ion - insu ance, epai o machine y and equipmen , pu chase o new machine y and equipmen , building epai , building econs uc ion, loans, ising unemploymen , lack o p oduc s, equipmen damage by liquida ion, o he damage, pu chase o a new sys em, sys em haza ds, bicycle s o age impac exi s, educed i e depa men appa a us access, densi ica ion o i e sp ead and elec ic ehicle cha ge s on building ex e io (Meachan and McNamee, 2020). De elopmen p ognosis o 2040 The desc ip ion o he p ognos ic me hod a ound he u u e and i s speci ic applica ion o a possible h ea wi hin he p ognos ic o he de elopmen o he objec 's ulne abili y o 2040 is based on he au ho 's subjec i e es ima e. As pa o he p ognosis o de eloping he building's ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion o 2040, i is essen ial o de e mine he main h ea wi hin i e p o ec ion. This p ima y h ea is p oposed due o ig. 3, which shows he ypes o i e, whe e he mos signi ican pe cen age is he i e o elec ical equipmen . These da a we e collec ed om 2002 o 2018. Fig. 3 Causes o i es (Eichho n, 2020) The h ea o elec ici y is in ended o his eason, as mo e and mo e people a e swi ching o au oma ed p oduc ion, and mos esou ces a e s a ing o ha e an au oma ed a ian . Special ca e mus be aken abou hei sho -ci cui ing when using many elec ical de ices, leading o a i e. Wi hin selec ing a sui able p ognos ic me hod o de e mining he ulne abili y o an objec in i e p o ec ion in 2040, he s uc u al me hod is chosen - he wheel o he u u e. This ype o me hods wi hin he p ognos ic ac i i y is applied mainly o iden i y and know he objec 's in e es and s uc u e. The wheel o he u u e is a me hod by which i is possible o iden i y and p esen he consequences o e en s and de elopmen ends. I is used mainly in iden i ying po en ial h ea s in he u u e. The basis lies in he ini ial ep esen a ion o he sol ed e en and he g adual addi ion o con ex (consequences). This g adually c ea es pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 24 in ec i i y, i i abili y, explosi eness, lammabili y and ca cinogenic p ope ies. A p esen , he p oblem o c ea ing haza dous was e land ills emains he no m. Wi h a g owing popula ion, he e is a g owing demand o p oduc s and hus an inc ease in he amoun o was e ha can be mo e o less dange ous o human li es. As a pe ec example o e e -inc easing was e, see Fig. 5, which co e s he Uni ed S a es. Fig. 5 shows he inc easing amoun o was e in onnes in he pe iod om 1960 o 2014. The was e is di ided in o du able goods, nondu able goods, con aine s and packaging, ood, ya d immings and o he was es - he a e and amoun o was e inc eases in p opo ion o he g owing popula ion. Fig. 5 Gene a ion o p oduc s (EPA, 2016) A less c i ical (seconda y) h ea o i e p o ec ion should be a i e o explosion in single- amily homes due o neglec o chimney cleaning ca e. This h ea is iden i ied o his eason, as he e a e ewe and ewe chimney sweeps a p esen , and i is expec ed ha in he u u e, homeowne s will a ange hei chimney cleaning ei he h ough ex e nal companies o in o he ways. I is also impo an o ealise ha in 2050 he company will make g ea e o s o p omo e deca bonisa ion, which will also be e lec ed in solid uels in households, whe e mos homes should be hea ed by sola panels o geo he mal ene gy. The h ea o i e due o neglec o chimney cleaning ca e should mainly a ec esiden s o amily houses o dwellings ou side owns and la ge illages, whe e deca bonisa ion and he use o sola panels o geo he mal ene gy will be minimal non-exis en . Fu he mo e, since he e will no be much demand o chimney sweeping ac i i ies in he u u e, he numbe o chimney sweeps will apidly be educed o a minimum. As he inspec ion o chimneys is manda o y only be o e he app o al i sel , i is likely ha many people will no clean he chimneys a e he app o al and will g adually o m signi ican soo in he chimneys, which will epai and blackou . The e may also no be a di ec ela ionship be ween he seconda y consequences o he main h ea . The di ec ela ionship be ween seconda y consequences can be di ec ly ela ed as long as hey ha e a common p ima y consequence. Wi hin each seconda y consequence, he e may be ano he consequence, called a e ia y consequence. Wi hin he e ia y consequence, ano he le el o consequences may a ise. The p ima y and seconda y consequences a e shown and p esen ed in he a icle because hey a e mo e o less ela ed o he objec 's main h ea . As he consequences de elop, he di ec link o he main h ea dec eases. As pa o he s a is ics o his p ognosis, an analysis o he goals, s eng hs and weaknesses o he esul s was c ea ed. The essen ial poin s o he p ognosis goal include: highly desi able, low-likelihood consequences (and policies o managemen ac ions designed o inc ease hei likelihood), highly undesi able, high-likelihood consequences (and policies o managemen ac ions designed o dec ease hei likelihood), su p ising consequences and including hose ha could ha e ca as ophic o ex ao dina ily posi i e impac s, di e ences in sco ing om al e na i e poin s o iew, in o ma ion and moni o ing needs o highly unce ain de elopmen s (Bengs on, 2015). S eng hs o his p ognosis a e: easily g asped by pa icipan s, s imula es complex and sys ema ic hinking, p o ides a clea isual map o complex in e ac ions, lexibili y o esponden s, as da a collec ion, no ansc ip ion o da a equi ed. Weaknesses o his p ognosis a e: esul s a y in consis ency, limi ed by knowledge and pe cep ions o pa icipan s, in o ma ion o e load, complex and ime-consuming da a analysis, highe cos pe esponden , specula i e na u e o da a (Benckendo , 2007). De elopmen p ognosis o 2050 The desc ip ion o he p ognos ic me hod a ound he u u e and i s speci ic applica ion o a possible h ea wi hin he p ognosis o he de elopmen o he objec 's ulne abili y o 2050 is based on he au ho 's subjec i e es ima e. As pa o he p ognosis o de eloping he building's ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion o 2050, i is also essen ial o de e mine he p ima y h ea wi hin i e p o ec ion. The p ima y h ea o 2050 could be c ea ing illegal land ills o haza dous was e, which would endange heal h, he en i onmen and he ecosys em. As he numbe o haza dous was e land ills inc ease, so does he long- e m oxici y o ai , soil and wa e . O he ha m ul p ope ies o illegal land ill o ma ion include inc easing pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 25 he in e nal en i onmen , iden i ica ion o d i ing o ces on he b oade en i onmen , anking d i ing o ces acco ding o impo ance and deg ee o unce ain y, de e mina ion o scena io logic, comple ion o scena ios, managemen o all implica ions and selec ion o key indica o s and a iables measu ed by he change. Based on his p ocedu e, h ee scena ios a e de e mined, which will be hei combina ion h ough a c i ical pa h (Valouch, 2016). Based on he de elopmen o i e sa e y and end scena ios, he ollowing ou p ima y goals we e c ea ed wi hin he analysis and he c ea ion o he i e sa e y scena io: • he e mus be a clea -cu me hod o enginee s o de ine he ange o possible le els o sa e y in a me hod ha can be modi ied in o useable social policy. Inpu s o models mus be de ined in a o m ha p esen s i sel o he egula o y p ocess; a he han being de ined by he equi emen s o he models, • enginee s canno expec o de ine he o m in which public policy mus be made. Socie y mus be a ailable o p o ec p ope y, ulne able popula ions o insis on edundancy o ma gins o sa e y, • social sa e y le els and echnical speci ica ions ha e o be p oduced in andem. A all s eps, enginee s should a oid concealing social decisions in echnical s anda ds, • he e mus be clea echnical measu es adequa e o managing a building's compliance wi h he p emises in a i e sa e y analysis (B annigan, 1999). Resul s o he de elopmen p ognosis Based on he de elopmen p ognosis o 2030, 2040 and 2050, hei esul s o each yea a e e alua ed. Resul s o he de elopmen p ognosis o 2030 Wi hin he esul o he de elopmen p ognosis o 2030, 3 esul s o he possible p ognoses a e selec ed. I is an op imis ic, ealis ic and pessimis ic p ognosis. Realis ic p ognosis - he mos p obable u u e si ua ion wi hin he se 3 p ognoses is a ealis ic p ognosis. As pa o he ealis ic p ognosis, he si ua ion ega ding global wa ming is ope a ing and de e io a ing. The e is he g adual hea ing o cause he chimneys o clog and la e cause a i e o explosion g adually. In selec ing a sui able p ognos ic me hod o de e mining he ulne abili y o an objec in i e p o ec ion in 2050, a p ocessual me hod is chosen - scena io c ea ion. I is a o m o p ognosis p ocessing ha desc ibes possible u u e de elopmen s a a speci ic ime. The p ognosis o he de elopmen o indi idual scena ios is based on he de elopmen al connec ions be ween indi idual e en s. I ollows ha a scena io is an a angemen o a ious o wa d- looking s a emen s unde ce ain condi ions ha may occu . They a e used o c ea e concep s and s a egies in a ious a eas. I is one o he mos used me hods. The c ea ion is based on he assump ion ha he u u e canno be p edic ed p ecisely, and i ollows ha a ious al e na i es can be conside ed. The scena ios' aim is a sys ema ic examina ion and c ea ion o possible, p obable s a es o he u u e. As pa o c ea ing a scena io wi hin he amewo k o i e p o ec ion o he yea 2050, an explo a o y scena io is selec ed, which desc ibes wha may happen in he u u e i speci ic p ocedu es a e pe o med. In pa icula , i is a p ognosis o he de elopmen o he ulne abili y o amily houses, in which a i e o explosion may occu due o inco ec o no ac i i y associa ed wi h he cleaning o chimneys. Fi s , i is essen ial o de e mine he ype o scena io acco ding o he classi ica ion. Wi hin he classi ica ion poin o iew, he selec ed ype o scena io is: • deg ee o no ma i i y - desc ip i e scena io - a desc ip ion o he p ognosis o a possible u u e si ua ion, • p ocessing a e - an indica ed scena io - is no subs an ia ed by scien i ic claims, • con en - speci ic - ocused mainly on one sec ion, • quan i ica ion - pa ially quan i ied - compa ing alues o end cha ac e is ics, • ime ho izon - long- e m - de elopmen p ognosis o 2050, • he low o ime - p ospec i e - de elopmen om he p esen o he u u e, • unc ion - explo a o y scena io - possible si ua ion in he u u e unde cu en condi ions, • p ocessing me hodology - logic based on ex apola ion o ends - de elopmen o he p esen and p olonging possible u u e s a es. Ano he c i ical poin in c ea ing a scena io is he p ocess. The gene al p ocess o explo a o y scena ios is he iden i ica ion o c i ical opics and p oblems, iden i ica ion o c i ical ac o s in pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003 T ansac ions o he VSB - Technical Uni e si y o Os a a Sa e y Enginee ing Se ies, ISSN 1805-3238 Vol. XVI, No. 1, 2021 26 explosion o elec ical equipmen . I is assumed ha he e will be a signi ican powe gain, and indi idual sys ems may no wo k co ec ly. The wo s pa o i e p o ec ion is i he e a e equen ailu es in elec ical i e sys ems. A signi ican ulne abili y, such as a i e o an explosion o elec ical equipmen , has many o he consequences. This high le el o ulne abili y can nega i ely a ec he en i e sys em o objec p o ec ion. Based on Fig. 3, i is essen ial ha he company p ima ily add esses and add esses h ea s in pa icula and seconda ily add esses less dange ous h ea s h ea ening objec p o ec ion sys ems. Resul s o he de elopmen p ognosis o 2050 The esul o he de elopmen p ognosis o 2050 is o p ima y h ea - he c ea ion o illegal land ills o haza dous was e is a p oposal o p e en i e and ep essi e measu es. The main p e en i e measu es include: inc easing con ols o p e en u he illegal land ills, c ea ion o goods o consume s om less dange ous (al e na i e) p oduc s, s eng hen legisla ion o add ess illegal land ills and s eng hening he ecosys em wi h he expansion o o es s, ese oi s and dams, s eams and i e s. The main ep essi e measu es include disposal o illegal land ills o haza dous was e and s opping he sp ead o haza dous subs ances om illegal land ills o haza dous was e o he soil, wa e o ai . The esul o he de elopmen p ognosis o 2050 is o seconda y h ea - chimney cleaning ca e is c ea ing a c i ical pa h om a combina ion o possible ou come scena ios. The c i ical pa h is shown in ig. 6. The p ognosis o 2050 is mainly in ended o esiden s o houses and dwellings loca ed ou side owns and la ge illages, whe e chimney hea ing o households will s ill be used. Fig. 6 is a g aphical ep esen a ion o he c i ical pa h o he issue. The ec angles con ain he beginning and end o he p ocess. The indi idual p ocesses o he c i ical pa h a e loca ed in he ci cles. The e a e numbe s be ween he indi idual p ocesses. These numbe s exp ess he alue o he impo ance o he gi en p ocess. The indi idual alues o he numbe s a e calcula ed based on he p og ess o ac i i ies. The esul ing s a e exp esses he gi en alue- he highe he nume ical alue, he mo e e icien he p ocess. The mos e ec i e p ocess is he ollowing poin s: S a o he p ocess → S ic e legisla ion → Fi e p o ec ion p e en o → P o essional i e igh e s → Con ols o sanc ions → Se ing a deadline → Cleaning p ocess → Au oma ic e-o de → Elec onic da abase → P ocess e alua ion ( o al numbe o poin s - 19). The leas he g ound, which causes d yness and, as a esul , mo e equen i es. The le el o i e s, s eams, dams and o he wa e bodies is d ying up, bu he e is s ill enough wa e o he e en ual ex inguishing o i es. Du ing he summe , hea y ains o en occu , which can cause mo e ex ensi e loods. Howe e , hese loods a e usually emo ed in ime. Op imis ic p ognosis - he p obabili y ha he op imis ic p ognosis will be ul illed is less han he ealis ic p ognosis. As pa o he op imis ic p ognosis, global wa ming is beginning o imp o e, and he numbe o i es caused by his wa ming is also dec easing. The le el o i e s, s eams, dams and o he wa e bodies is s able, and he si ua ion is ideal. Occasional ains do no cause any ele a ed i e le els and hus no loods. Pessimis ic p ognosis - he p obabili y ha he pessimis ic p ognosis will be ul illed is also less han he ealis ic p ognosis. As pa o he pessimis ic p ognosis, he si ua ion ega ding global wa ming is de e io a ing signi ican ly. Lakes, i e s, s eams and o he bodies o wa e a e comple ely d y. The numbe o i es is ising apidly, and he e is a signi ican wa e sho age o pu ou he i e. The emendous hea c ea es massi e and hea y ains, which cause ex ensi e loods and can lood many buildings con aining haza dous subs ances. This can cause explosions and o he massi e and ex ensi e i es. Due o he inc easing numbe o i es and loods, he e a e ew i e p o ec ion uni s o possible o he eme gency e en s ela ed o i e p o ec ion. The esul o he i e sa e y p ognosis o buildings is o change he building ma e ial and su ace o buildings and eplace i wi h “g een” ma e ial, which educes and e ec i ely educes he isk o i e due o global wa ming, which causes a g adual inc ease in empe a u e due o yea s and hus hea ing buildings and equipmen a e loca ed in buildings. Wi hin he p oposal “g een” ma e ials, using hese p oposed s uc u es and sys ems in buildings would no lead o a highe isk o i e o explosion o haza dous subs ances due o global wa ming, subjec o s ic egula o y condi ions. Mo e signi ican amoun s o elec ici y can also cause a i e haza d, bu he isk is low i he necessa y condi ions a e me . Resul s o he de elopmen p ognosis o 2040 The cu en end o au oma ion o de ices and equipmen is s ill ising. In 2040, i is assumed ha he main and, simul aneously, he mos signi ican ulne abili y in i e p o ec ion could be a i e o an pp. 18-28, DOI 10.35182/ ses-2021-0003