5Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11
How he domes ic indus y o Cos a Rica became mo e compe i i e in he US ma ke .
An eceden s and T ends
1)
Jesús C. Peña-Vinces*, Segundo Cas o**, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo***
Abs ac
Pu pose - The aim o his wo k is o s udy he eo ien a ion ha
he expo indus ial sec o s in Cos a Rica ha e expe ienced du ing
he las 20 yea s.
Resea ch design, da a, me hodology - The s udy employs he
Clus e Analysis wi h he expo da a (20 yea s o cu -o pe iod)
om Cos a Rica o he U.S-ma ke . To make he p edic ions, he
echnique o he ime se ies was used, wi h o icial da a ( om 2001
o 2010) om he U.S. Depa men o Comme ce and he U.S.
In e na ional T ade Commission.
Resul s - The Clus e Analysis, show how he economic sec o s o
adi ional p oduc s expo s o Cos a Rica ha e p og essi ely become
in expo e s o non- adi ional p oduc s, meanwhile, he ime se ies
con i ms ha his end will con inue, a leas du ing he nex i e
yea s.
Conclusions - The indus y o adi ional p oduc s expo s o Cos a
Rica (d essmaking, ege ables, co ee, ma e, species, e c.) will p o-
g essi ely become in expo e s o non- adi ional p oduc s wi h a
high- ech componen (i.e., mechanical equipmen and de ices, elec-
onic de ices and medical equipmen ),as a consequence o he
Chinese (Cos a Rica’s main compe i o ) economy´s p esence in he
O ganiza ion o Economic Co-ope a ion and De elopmen (OCDE).
This ac has enabled he po en ial imp o emen o Cos a Rica’s in-
e na ional compe i i eness in he U.S. ma ke .
Keywo ds : Cos a Rican Expo s, Indus ial Sec o s, In e na ional
Compe i i eness, USA Ma ke , China Expo s.
JEL Classi ica ions : L23, L24, L52, O54.
* Co esponding Au ho , Assis an P o esso , Depa men o Business
Managemen and Ma ke ing, College o Economics and Business
Uni e si y o Se ille Se ille-Spain. A . Ramón y Cajal nº 1, 41018,
Se ille (Spain). Tel: +034-954 554 438, E-mail: jesusp [email protected].
** Lec u e , G adua e School o Business Adminis a ion, Uni e si y o
Pue o Rico, Rio Pied as Campus, Pue o Rico-USA, E-mail:
segundo.cas o@up .edu
***Associa e p o esso , Depa men o Business Managemen and
Ma ke ing, College o Economics and Business ,Uni e si y o Se ille
Se ille-Spain, E-mail: bus [email protected]
1. In oduc ion
The geog aphic closeness o he U.S. ma ke conside ably in luen-
ces he in e na ional ade o he Cen al Ame ican and Ca ibbean
coun ies (Ma hews & Cas o, 2010). This is due o he U.S.’s eco-
nomic and poli ical powe , which se s he cou se and s a egies o he
Cen al Ame ican and Ca ibbean coun ies, and in pa icula o Cos a
Rica. This is e iden in he expo s owa ds he U.S.ma ke ha ha e
his o ically ep esen ed and ep esen a ele an pe cen age wi hin he
in e na ional ac i i ies o his coun y.
Acco ding o CEPAL (2009), in 1990 he expo s om Cos a Rica
(CR) owa ds he U.S. ma ke (USM.) ep esen ed 38.7%, om he
o al expo s and o he yea 1995 hey had a simila beha io
(38.2%), la e owa ds he yea 2000, he sha e g ew signi ican ly up
o 49.1%. In ac , as hese da a show, he sus ained g ow h o CR
expo s is based on he U.S. ma ke , as Monge (1996) s a ed.
The e o e, he ole o he Uni ed S a es as a hos coun y o CR
expo s is s ill impo an . Table 1 shows ha he U.S. ma ke has
con inued o be he main ading pa ne o CR expo s o he las
h ee yea s, wi h a sha e a e o app oxima ely36.7%. In sho , we
can con i m ha his da a (see Table 1), shows he need o ca ying
ou a deepe a he han a simple his o ic analysis in o de o quan i-
a i ely show he eo ien a ion ha he indus ial sec o o Cos a Rica
has expe imen ed in he las wen y yea s.
<Table 1> S uc u e o he o al expo s o Cos a Rica acco ding o
des ina ion ma ke s
EXPORTS
MILLION DOLLARS PERCENTAGE
SHARE
2008 2009 2010* 2008 2009 2010*
Uni ed S a es 3570.1 3099.7 3559.4 37.4% 36.0% 36.8%
Mexico and Canada 296.9 243.4 328.1 3.1% 2.8% 3.4%
Eu opean Union 1529.6 1505.5 1667.7 16.0% 17.5% 17.2%
Cen al Ame ica 1312.0 1135.4 1667.7 13.7% 13.2% 17.2%
Asia 1625.9 1532.1 1276.0 17.0% 17.8% 13.2%
Ca ibbean 408.2 363.7 418.4 4.3% 4.2% 4.3%
Sou h Ame ica 248.2 203.7 222.7 2.6% 2.4% 2.3%
O he s 562.0 532.8 535.8 5.9% 6.2% 5.5%
TOTAL 9552.9 8616.3 9675.8 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Sou ce: COMEX (2011) based on da a om PROCOMER
(*) Da a subjec o e ision
The e o e ou wo k has a double objec i e. On he one hand, we
would like o de e mine whe he CR is no longe a adi ional and
ex ile p oduc s expo e and has al eady become a hi- ech p od-
6 Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11
uc -wi h a high added alue o he inal clien – expo e . On he
o he hand, i is also impo an o s udy he end o he beha io
ha he in e na ional ac i i ies o his coun y will ha e, which would
make ou esea ch ha e clea implica ions on managemen and
poli ics.
This pape is s uc u ed as ollows. Fi s , we de elop he li e a u e
e iew on he Cos a Rica’s expo s. In he second sec ion we de ail
he empi ical analysis, da a and me hodology. Then, he esea ch is
discussed and inally he conclusions, implica ions and limi a ions a e
p esen ed.
2. Li e a u e e iew
T adi ionally since he beginning o he las cen u y and be o e he
80s, CR was cha ac e ized by expo ing adi ional p oduc s such as
ui , co ee, suga , ma e, e c. (Sánchez, 2005; 2006; Monge, 1996).
As o he ea ly 80s, CR expe ienceda change in i s in e na ional
ac i i ies. The non- adi ional p oduc s s a ed o play a ele an ole
in he expo - ela ed cu ency gene a ion. This was due mainly o he
ac i e sha e o he maquila indus y. They we e cha ac e ized by he
use o o eign inpu s and echnology, o cheap local wo k o ce and
o dedica ing hei p oduc ion especially o expo s (Tay-Balde as,
2003). In CR his ype o en e p ise was ocused basically on he
ex ile indus y, which se ed as apla o m o his coun y’s p oduc s’
in e na ionaliza ion, bu abo e all o hose coun ies which o e ed
cheap wo k o ce, hus assu ing high p o i abili y le els o he pa en
companies (Campbell & Ve beke, 1994; Dunning, 1989). Acco ding
o Nowalski, Mo ales & Be lia sky (1994), " he maquila indus y was
es ablished in Cos a Rica in he mid 70s; howe e , i was no un il
1983 ha an accele a ed g ow h p ocess s a ed."
In 1983, he e we e 45 maquilas and 132 in 1986, om which 90
belonged o he ex ile indus y, and in 1991 he numbe o es ablish-
edmaquilas doubled o 264 maquilas (Nowalski e al.,1994). Such was
he impo ance o he o -sho ing phenomenon o he in e na ional
p oduc ion o some mul ina ionals- abo e all Ame ican mul ina ionals
in he Cos a Rican economy, ha he numbe o wo ke s inc eased
om 5,600 in 1982 (equi alen o 5% o he wo ke s in he manu-
ac u ing indus y) o 46,100 (25%) in 1990.
This de elopmen was ein o ced du ing hose yea s wi h he ap-
pea ance o he ee ade zones o expo s whe e a wo old neces-
si y is sol ed: on he Cos a Rican side, inc easing expo p o i s, on
he U.S. manu ac u e s’ side, dec easing p oduc ion cos s. Abo e all,
CR needed o gene a e cu ency h ough expo s and hanks o cheap
wo k o ce, CR ep esen ed ideal o -sho ing o he U.S. manu-
ac u e s (De Alonso, 1992). This g ow h was mo i a ed mainly by a
legal en i onmen o p e e en ial a i s om he Uni ed S a ed o
Ame ica, which c ea ed good oppo uni ies h ough P o ision 807 o
he U.S Ta i Code and he Ca ibbean Basin Ini ia i e (CBI). Also,
in he second hal o he 90s, maquila expo s expe ienced an accel-
e a ed g ow hin he ex ile and clo hes indus y, he same happened
wi h o he p oduc s such as elec onic de ices and medical equipmen
(BID, 2007).
F om 1997 o 1999, maquila expo s inc eased 30.9% annually. In
1999, unde his egime, hey had eached US$9.3 billion, exceeding
adi ional expo s o he i s ime, which amoun ed o US$ 8
billion.
Due o he changes in he in e na ional ade mo i a ed by he
globaliza ion o he ma ke s, in he 90s and du ing he beginning o
2000, CR s a ed s eng hening i s ins i u ionalism ocusing in he a -
ac ion o hi- ech Fo eign Di ec In es men (FDI), which la e se ed
as he basis o imp o e i s compe i i e capaci ies (BID, 2007). Gugle
& B unne (2007) a i med ha he g ow h in he compe i i eness o
de eloping coun ies was due mainly o FDIs. This lesson was e ec-
i ely applied by he go e nmen and he en ep eneu ial o ganiza ions
o CR, mo i a ing he es ablishmen o a egula o y amewo k ha
os e ed and acili a ed he access o o eign en e p ises h ough FDIs
(inwa d). These we e eo ien ed owa ds o he p oduc i e sec o s di -
e en om he adi ional maquila ac o y, hus a oiding o un in o
one o he main FDI isks, i.e. in in es men s wi h no added alue,
denomina ed " he amp o he low added alue" (UNCTAD, 2002).
This la e is ela ed o he a ac ion o low quali y FDIs, whe e he
es ablished en e p ises a e only in e es ed in se ing li le chaining in
he local economy and he e o e ha e li le capaci y o gene a e
"spillo e s", ope a ing hen in a sho - e m pe iod. These en e p ises
a e usually known as " ly by nigh " (CEPAL, 2003).
To ha end, CR and he en ep eneu ial sec o s c ea ed specialized
agencies, among which he Cos a Rican In es men P omo ion Agency
(CINDE, 2001) and he P omo ion o Fo eign Comme ce
(PROCOMER, 2011) s and ou . CEPAL (2003) summa izes: "CINDE
along wi h he go e nmen decided o e ocus hei e o s o a ac
o eign en e p ises owa ds quali ied wo k o ce in ense indus ies. In
1993, CINDE selec ed h ee key subsec o s: elec ic, elec onic and
elecommunica ions. The s a egy p o ed o be especially success ul
since i esul ed in signi ican imp o emen in he coun y’s echno-
logical in as uc u e and impo an changes in CR’s p oduc i e
s uc u e."
Howe e , i is also impo an o ake in o conside a ion ha he e
a e o he ac s ha allow unde s anding he es uc u a ion o CR
expo s. One o hem was he in eg a ion o China o he Wo ld
T ade O ganiza ion (WTO) in 2001,and he second is he las elimi-
na ion s age o quo as ha he U.S. had wi h Cen al Ame ican coun-
ies in 2005 unde he Mul i-Fibe Ag eemen . As es ablished by he
WTO (2011), his ag eemen se he elimina ion o es ic ions o
d essmaking expo s o de eloping coun ies and p oduce s in s ages,
so ade would low as eely as possible.
Due o hese ac s, g ea e ex ile ade ac i i y om China and
Asia wi h he U.S. was expec ed, mainly in he ex ile sec o . The
u h is ha conce n o he possible impac o China on he OCDE
was also sha ed by all he coun ies, including he Uni ed S a es and
he Eu opean Union (Walmsley & He el, 2000). In ac , i would no
only a ec he appa el assembly wo ke s om he Ca ibbean and
Cen al Ame ica, bu also Mexican appa el manu ac u e s. Unde hese
ci cums ances, CR has di e si ied i s expo s, i has expe ienced
change in i s composi ion and subs an ial imp o emen in he expo s
olume o he U.S.
7Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11
3. Me hodology and sampling
In o de o achie e he i s objec i e o his esea ch, he clus e
me hod analysis will be employed wi h he expo da a om CR o
he U.S. ma ke and he las 20 yea s as he cu -o pe iod.. In his
way, we will es ablish i in his pe iod he e is a echnological clus-
e concen a ion, o o he ypes o concen a ion, ha ha e made CR
gainnew compe i i e ad an ages as a coun y wi h high expo
po en ial. In he clus e analysis, he Euclidian me hod and he Wa d
Technique will be used o calcula e he dis ances and he connec ions
be ween hem. To ca y ou his ask he s a is icsso wa e SPSS ®
15.0 was used.
The s udy pe iod co esponds o he yea s 1991-2010. This was di -
ided in ou sub-pe iods o i e yea s each: The i s sub-pe iod is
om 1991 o 1995, he second om 1996 o 2000, he hi d om
2001 o 2005 and he ou h om 2006 o 2010. In each sub-pe iod
he mos impo an 20 wo-digi o he Ha monized Ta i Schedule
(HTS) codes o he Uni ed S a es ha e been selec ed o hei expo
pe cen age sha e om CR o USM. These ep esen : 93.8%, 94.6%,
93.9% and 97.8% o pe cen age sha e o he i s , second, hi d and
ou h sub-pe iod, espec i ely.
In o de o accomplish he second objec i e, a ime se ies analysis
o he main 10 ca ego ies (HTS) was made using he las en yea s
(2001-2010). The echnique employed o make p edic ions o ime
se ies wi h o wi hou endency bu wi h no seasonali y was B own’s
(2004), enown model o double exponen ial smoo hing which is a
model ha uses dec easing mo ing a e age in a geome ic p o-
g ession and inco po a es a endency componen ..
4. Da a and esul s analyses
4.1. Clus e Analysis
Fi s Sub-pe iod: om 1991 o 1995
Table 2 p esen s he numbe s o dendog ams and hei HTS co e-
sponding o he decade 1991– 2000. Using an Euclidian dis ance o
5, G aph 2 iden i ies 2 clus e s: Fi s Clus e : Fo med by HTS 39,
17, 95, 98, 22 84, 20, 6, 40, 90, 7, 3, 71, 9, 2 and 85, hese ep e-
sen 31.8% o he sha e and belong o six indus ies: Be e age and
obacco (17, 20 and 22), animal and animal p oduc s (2,3), ege able
p oduc s (6, 7 y 9), plas ics and ubbe i ems (39 and 40), mechanic
machine y and elec ic equipmen (84 and 85, wi h a 5.8% sha e be-
ween bo h o hem), and miscellaneous i emssuch as u ni u e, oys
(94 and 95). Second Clus e : o med by HTS 8, 62 and 61. These
ep esen wo indus ies: ex iles, (61 and 62, wi h an a e age sha e
o 40.8%) and ege able p oduc s (8, wi h an a e age sha eo 21.9%).
I can be concluded ha in his sub-pe iod, CR expo s we e mainly
ocused on wo k o ce in ensi e indus ies ep esen ed by he ex ile
and ege able indus ies ha accoun ed o a 62.7% sha e.
Second Sub-pe iod: om 1996 o 2000
F om G aph2, CR expo s a e g ouped in h ee clus e s. Fi s
Clus e : Fo med by 15 ca ego ies: 95, 94, 22, 39, 17, 02, 40, 06, 98,
20, 07, 71, 03, 90 and 09, which belong o 5 indus ies ha accoun
o 33% o he a e age sha eand a e: Be e age and obacco (17, 20
and 22), animals and animal p oduc s (2 and 3), ege able p oduc s
(6, 7 and 9), plas ics and ubbe i ems (39 and 40) and u ni u e and
oys (94 and 95). Second Clus e : Fo med by HTS 8, 62, 61 and 85.
These co espond o h ee indus ies: ex ile manu ac u ing (61 and
62, wi h a sha e a e age o 27.6%), ege able p oduc s (08: F ui and
seeds, wi h an a e age sha e o 15.4%) and elec ic equipmen and
machine y(85, wi h an a e age sha e o 9.8% ). Thi d Clus e :
Fo med by he machine y indus y and mechanical de ices (84, wi h
a pe cen age sha e o 18.7%). This sub-pe iod s a s o show a
change in CR expo s: The wo k o cein ensi e indus y ( ex ile and
ege able indus ies) eached 43%, compa ed o he hi- ech indus y
(84 and 85) which al eady accoun ed o 28.5% o he a e age sha e.
Thi d Sub-pe iod: om 2001 o 2005
Table 3 ep esen s he co espondence o he numbe s wi h he ca -
ego ies (HTS) used o he pe iods be ween 2000 and 2010, in he
g aphic ep esen a ion o he dendog ams. F om G aph 3, in his
sub-pe iod, 3 clus e s we e iden i ied. Fi s Clus e : Fo med by 15
HTS: 71, 39,99, 06, 94, 76, 17, 02, 84,09, 20, 07, 03, 40 and 98.
These belonged o 8 di e en indus ies ha made 27% o he sha e
and a e: Be e age and obacco (17,20), animals and animal p oduc s
(2 and 3), ege able p oduc s (6, 7 and 9), plas ics and ubbe p od-
uc s (39 and 40), machine y and mechanical pa s (84), me allic p od-
uc s (98 and 99, na u al and cul i a ed pea ls(71) and miscellaneous
such as u ni u e (94). Second Clus e : Fo med by he ex ile indus y
(61 and 62). Wi h an a e age pe cen age sha e o 20%, his indus y
is no longe impo an in CR expo s because hey los sha e om
40.8%, 27.6% and 20% in he i s , second and hi d sub-pe iods,
espec i ely. Thi d Clus e : Fo med by 3 HTS: 90, 85 and 08. They
ep esen 3 indus ies: Machine y and elec ic equipmen (85), medical
and op ic equipmen (90) and he ege able indus y(8, wi h a sha e
o 16%). The ca ego ies 85 and 90, a e echnology in ensi e wi h a
sha e o 33% in CR expo s du ing his pe iod. The ege able in-
dus y, due o a s ong compe i ion wi h he es o he Cen al
Ame ican coun ies, has achie ed signi ican le els o compe i i eness.
Fou h sub-pe iod: om 2006 o 2010
Acco ding o G aph 4, in his sub-pe iod 3 clus e s a e inden i ied:
Fi s Clus e : Fo med by 16 HTS: 02,76, 94, 17, 71, 07, 03, 06, 39,
99, 62, 20 98, 40, 61 and 09. They belong o 8 di e en indus ies,
ep esen ing 25% o he a e age sha e and hey a e: Be e age and o-
bacco (17, 20), animals and animal p oduc s (2 and 3), ege able
p oduc s (6: li e plan s, 7: ube s and oo s and 9 : co ee, ea and
species), plas ics and ubbe i ems (39 and 40), me allic p oduc s
(76), na u al and cul i a ed pea ls (71), miscellaneous i emssuch as
u ni u e (94) and he ex ile indus y (61 and 62) which has a e y
low pe cen age sha e wi h only 6% o he o al expo s. Second
Clus e : Fo med by HTS 90, 8 and 85, o med by 3 indus ies:
Machine y and mechanical equipmen (84), medical and op ic p oduc s
(90) and he ege able indus y (8). The e a e wo indus ies:
Machine y and mechanical equipmen (84), medical and op ic p oduc s
8 Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11
(90) and he ege able indus y (8). The e a e wo indus ies ha be-
long o indus ies wi h hi- ech con en and ep esen 31% o he ex-
po s a e age om CR o USM, and he ege able indus y (8), wi h
a sha eo 14% o he o al expo s. Bo h ep esen 45%. Thi d clus-
e : o med by only one HTS: 84 ha co esponds o he machine y
and mechanical equipmen indus y, wi h an a e age sha e o 26% o
he o al expo s.
In his las sub-pe iod, be ween clus e 2 and clus e 3 he echnol-
ogy in ense p oduc s and he e o e, wi h g ea e added alue, make
up a o al o 57%, and ep esen mo e han hal o CR expo s. I is
p ecisely in his pe iod in which a s ong concen a ion o echno-
logical indus ies is e iden , he e o e clea ly showing in e na ional
compe i i e po en ial. Combining hese wo clus e s, hey would ep e-
sen 71% o he o al expo s om CR o USM ocused on 3 in-
dus ies, wo o hem a e o hi- ech le el and he second one ege a-
bles, which is wo k o ce in ensi e.
<Table 2> Numbe s and hei co esponding HTS, using dendog ams om
he decade 1991-2000
#HTS Desc ip ion
1HTS84 Nuclea eac o s, boile s, machine y and mechanical appliances
2HTS8 Edible ui and nu s, peel o ci us ui o melons
3HTS62 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, no kni ed o c oche ed
4HTS85 Elec ical machine y and equipmen and pa s he eo ; e c.
5HTS61 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, kni ed o c oche ed
6HTS90 Op ical, pho og aphic, medical o su gical ins umen s and appa a us
7HTS9 Co ee, ea, ma e and spices
8HTS3 Fish and c us aceans, mollusks and o he aqua ic in e eb a es
9HTS98 Special classi ica ion p o isions
10 HTS20 P epa a ions o ege ables, ui , nu s o o he pa s o plan s
11 HTS40 Rubbe and a icles he eo
12 HTS7 Edible ege ables and ce ain oo s and ube s
13 HTS6 Li e ees and o he plan s; cu lowe s and o namen al oliage
14 HTS71 Na u al o cul u ed pea ls, p ecious o semi-p ecious s ones
15 HTS2 Mea and edible mea o al
16 HTS22 Be e ages, spi i s and inega
17 HTS39 Plas ics and a icles he eo
18 HTS95 Toys, games and spo s equisi es; pa s and accesso ies he eo
19 HTS17 Suga s and suga con ec ione y
20 HTS94 Fu ni u e; bedding, ma esses, and simila s u ed u nishings
<Figu e 1>Dendog am sub-pe iod 1991 - 1995
<Figu e 2> Dendog am sub-pe iod 1996 - 2000
<Table 3> Numbe s and hei co esponding HTS, using dendog ams om
he decade 2001 - 2010
#HTS Desc ip ion
1HTS84 Nuclea eac o s, boile s, machine y and mechanical appliances
2HTS85 Elec ical machine y and equipmen and pa s he eo , e c.
3HTS90 Op ical, pho og aphic, medical o su gical ins umen s and appa a us
4HTS8 Edible ui and nu s; peel o ci us ui o melons
5HTS9 Co ee, ea, ma e and spices
6HTS40 Rubbe and a icles he eo
7HTS99 Tempo a y legisla ion; empo a y modi ica ions p oclaimed pu suan
8HTS20 P epa a ions o ege ables, ui , nu s o o he pa s o plan s
9HTS62 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, no kni ed o c oche ed
10 HTS61 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, kni ed o c oche ed
11 HTS71 Na u al o cul u ed pea ls, p ecious o semi-p ecious s ones
12 HTS7 Edible ege ables and ce ain oo s and ube s
13 HTS98 Special classi ica ion p o isions
14 HTS3 Fish and c us aceans, mollusks and o he aqua ic in e eb a es
15 HTS6 Li e ees and o he plan s; cu lowe s and o namen al oliage
16 HTS39 Plas ics and a icles he eo
17 HTS94 Fu ni u e; bedding, ma esses, and simila s u ed u nishings
18 HTS17 Suga s and suga con ec ione y
19 HTS2 Mea and edible mea o al
20 HTS76 Aluminum and a icles he eo
<Figu e 3> Dendog am sub-pe iod 2001-2005
9Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11
<Figu e 4> Dendog am sub-pe iod 2006-2010
4.2. Time se ies analysis
The beha io analysis o CR expo s o he U.S. ma ke would be
incomple e i hey did no ha e a end calcula ion, meaning wha
could happen in a nea u u e. Fo ou esea ch a ime limi o 5
yea s has been conside ed as o 2010. We use he his o ical quan i a-
i e da a o he 10 main ca ego ies.
The me hod used o ca y ou his ime se ies calcula ion co e-
sponds o B own’s Simple Exponen ial Smoo hing (2004). To selec
he op imal p edic ion, an op imal weigh ed coe icien (Alpha) has
been i s calcula ed in each o he ca ego ies, so as o minimize he
mean squa ed e o . This allows calcula ing a mo e ep esen a i e R2
o he model o g ea e eliabili y in he esul s. The esul s appea
in Table 4, he numbe s a e iden i ied in bold ype, o dis inguish
hem om he his o ical da a. This has only been used du ing he
las decade as e e ence. G aph 5 has been calcula ed on his.
<Table 4>T ends using exponen ial mo ing a e age o m yea s 2011-2015
Yea HTS
84
HTS
85
HTS
90
HTS
8
HTS
9
HTS
40
HTS
99
HTS
20
HTS
62
HTS
61
2001 115 498 298 514 103 43 32 57 387 384
2002 129 620 365 484 122 54 36 61 362 365
2003 117 814 480 519 126 62 42 60 281 309
2004 132 719 480 490 150 96 42 55 265 253
2005 265 547 524 512 157 111 42 54 246 238
2006 354 491 591 742 139 116 50 72 233 232
2007 430 416 650 731 159 122 52 117 194 229
2008 436 421 800 699 192 128 54 83 114 189
2009 2,610 274 791 648 157 121 76 82 83 123
2010 2,846 2,723 879 819 163 145 141 99 85 83
2011 2,306 1,512 936 778 175 148 125 95 60 89
2012 2,540 1,636 998 803 180 156 139 97 34 65
2013 2,773 1,759 1,060 827 184 164 152 100 741
2014 3,007 1,883 1,123 852 189 172 166 103 -19 16
2015 3,240 2,006 1,185 876 194 180 179 106 -45 -8
Alpha 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.25
R^2 0.60 0.40 0.97 0.70 0.67 0.90 0.61 0.53 0.96 0.95
Sou ce: "The a i and ade da a om he U.S. (2010). Depa men o Comme ce
and he U.S. In e na ional T ade Commission"(ITA, 2011 by English ini ials)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Yea s
Billons o dola s
HTS61
HTS84
HTS85
HTS90
HTS 8
HTS9
HTS40
HTS99
HTS20
HTS62
Va iable
P edic ion o he 10 mo e impo an ca ego ies
Sou ce: "The a i and ade da a om he U.S. Depa men o Comme ce and he
U.S. In e na ional T ade Commission".
Own elabo a ion
<Figu e 5> P edic ion o he 10 mo e impo an ca ego ies o CR expo s
o USM, du ing he nex 5 yea s
Conside ing ha p edic ion is no an exac science, ins ead, as men-
ioned by Heize & Rende (2011) " o make p edic ions is o com-
bine a and science", and, e en mo e, aking in o accoun he g ow-
ing complexi y o wo ld economy and he iolen echnological ad-
ances ha we ha e expe ienced his las decade, we da e say ha
he decisions o u u e in es o s and he opening o new businesses
in Cos a Rica shall conside his. To calcula e he abo e men ioned
p edic ions, he 10 main ca ego ies we e selec ed acco ding o hei
con ibu ion o he ac i i ies ou side CR (i.e. expo s o USM) in
2010.
5. Conclusions and Implica ions
The i s possible conclusion a e di e en analysis ca ied ou in-
dica e ha 62.7% o Cos a Rican expo s di ec ed o he U.S. ma ke
om1991 o 1995 we e ocused on cheap wo k o ce in ensi e in-
dus ies, ep esen ed by he ex ile and ege able indus ies. In o he
wo ds, CR’s in e na ional compe i i eness and he e o e i s in e na-
ional economy lackedpo en ial o compe e in e na ionally wi h p od-
uc s o high added alue, meaning a p oduc ion ha demands a high
le el o echnological de elopmen . F om 2006 o 2010, 57% o i s
expo s eached enough echnological de elopmen o be able o com-
pe e wi h en e p ises om all o e he wo ld, especially wi h Chinese
mul ina ionals. These esul s show how CR’s wo k o ce in ensi e in-
dus ial sec o s, i.e. adi ional p oduc sexpo s (d essmaking, ege a-
bles, co ee, ma e, species, e c.) will p og essi ely become expo e s
o non- adi ional p oduc s wi h a hi- ech componen , o example:
mechanical equipmen and de ices, elec onic de ices and medical
equipmen .
Wi hou a doub , his s a egic change in CR’s in e na ional ac i -
i ies (expo s) has happened hanks o he con ibu ion o he mul ina-
ional en e p ises es ablished in he coun y, d i en by he global ma -
ke ends. Also, CR’s public policies should be conside ed and im-
plemen ed based on he expe ience wi h CINDE and PROCOMER.

10 Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11
No he leas impo an is he c ea ion o ac o s ela ed o he social
and ins i u ional s uc u e, which in one way o ano he ,ha e con-
ibu ed wi h CR’s good esul s , wi h ega ds o he ma ke quo a o
non- adi ional expo s in he U.S. ma ke . Howe e , his is no he
only aspec . In he global ma ke s, also some Eu opean coun ies
such as Spain ha e s a ed o -sho ing hei indus y in he no h o
A ica.
On he o he hand, he expo s o adi ional p oduc s such as co -
ee, ea, ma e and species (excep o ui and seeds), indica e a
downwa d endency in he nex i e yea s. The e o e, in e es ed pa -
ies in his indus ial segmen ha e an u gen challenge o upda e and
inno a e o keep and imp o e hei cu en compe i i e ad an ages.
We sugges keeping an eye on he oppo uni ies in he g owing ma -
ke o o ganic c ops.
The ex ile indus y, acco ding o ou ends, shows a se ious isk
o disappea ing. I s all in he 4 sub-pe iods has been consis en and
uns oppable, om a 40.8% sha e in he i s sub-pe iod o a 6%
sha e in he las one. I no ex e nal agen modi ies hese endencies,
we will wi ness i s disappea ance in a ew yea s. We should conside
he Asian expe ience o he ex ile indus y o pa icipa ing in he
whole alue chain (comple e package). We sugges he commi ed
sec o s wi hin his sec o o ponde o e he implemen a ion o an
"up-g ading" in hei indus ies. Se e al s udies indica e ha i hey
dedica ed o p oduce he comple e package, hey could gene a e an
inc ease o abou 50% o he inal p oduc cos s, depending on he
appa el (Dusell, 2004).
To conclude hese esul s indica e he need o an ac i e and joined
pa icipa ion o he poli icians in cha ge o designing sus ainable de-
elopmen and g ow h o a coun y, o he en ep eneu s who execu e
he g ow h, and he in ellec ual capi al such as uni e si ies, in o de
o ob ain app op ia e solu ions ha allow adequa e measu es o a oid
sad economic si ua ions such as he ones we a e cu en ly li ing.
Finally, in ega d o he social implica ions, we belie e ha ou
esea ch becomes in a use ul ins umen o decision making, o
p ac i ione s and policymake s o Cos a Rica and also o o he s La in
Ame ican coun ies, wi h simila economic in e na ional beha io (i.e.,
CR). Gi en ha , his s udy encou age hem, o de elopmen o i s in-
s i u ional echnology, he human capi al o ma ion and inco po a ing
new echnologies in a special manne o he sec o s iden i ied as
s a egic (e.g. mechanical equipmen and de ices, elec onic de ices
and medical equipmen ) in o de o accomplishing he compe i i eness
o a coun y in an in e na ional con ex .
One o he limi a ions ha his s udy shows is ha p edic ions
should be assumed unde s eady local and in e na ional economic con-
di ions in ime.
Recei ed: Ma ch 04, 2013.
Re ised: Ma ch 18, 2013.
Accep ed: Ap il 15, 2013.
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