How the domestic industry of Costa Rica became more competitive in the US market. Antecedents and Trends

5Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11 How he domes ic indus y o Cos a Rica became mo e compe i i e in he US ma ke . An eceden s and T ends 1) Jesús C. Peña-Vinces*, Segundo Cas o**, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo*** Abs ac Pu pose - The aim o his wo k is o s udy he eo ien a ion ha he expo indus ial sec o s in Cos a Rica ha e expe ienced du ing he las 20 yea s. Resea ch design, da a, me hodology - The s udy employs he Clus e Analysis wi h he expo da a (20 yea s o cu -o pe iod) om Cos a Rica o he U.S-ma ke . To make he p edic ions, he echnique o he ime se ies was used, wi h o icial da a ( om 2001 o 2010) om he U.S. Depa men o Comme ce and he U.S. In e na ional T ade Commission. Resul s - The Clus e Analysis, show how he economic sec o s o adi ional p oduc s expo s o Cos a Rica ha e p og essi ely become in expo e s o non- adi ional p oduc s, meanwhile, he ime se ies con i ms ha his end will con inue, a leas du ing he nex i e yea s. Conclusions - The indus y o adi ional p oduc s expo s o Cos a Rica (d essmaking, ege ables, co ee, ma e, species, e c.) will p o- g essi ely become in expo e s o non- adi ional p oduc s wi h a high- ech componen (i.e., mechanical equipmen and de ices, elec- onic de ices and medical equipmen ),as a consequence o he Chinese (Cos a Rica’s main compe i o ) economy´s p esence in he O ganiza ion o Economic Co-ope a ion and De elopmen (OCDE). This ac has enabled he po en ial imp o emen o Cos a Rica’s in- e na ional compe i i eness in he U.S. ma ke . Keywo ds : Cos a Rican Expo s, Indus ial Sec o s, In e na ional Compe i i eness, USA Ma ke , China Expo s. JEL Classi ica ions : L23, L24, L52, O54. * Co esponding Au ho , Assis an P o esso , Depa men o Business Managemen and Ma ke ing, College o Economics and Business Uni e si y o Se ille Se ille-Spain. A . Ramón y Cajal nº 1, 41018, Se ille (Spain). Tel: +034-954 554 438, E-mail: jesusp [email protected]. ** Lec u e , G adua e School o Business Adminis a ion, Uni e si y o Pue o Rico, Rio Pied as Campus, Pue o Rico-USA, E-mail: segundo.cas o@up .edu ***Associa e p o esso , Depa men o Business Managemen and Ma ke ing, College o Economics and Business ,Uni e si y o Se ille Se ille-Spain, E-mail: bus [email protected] 1. In oduc ion The geog aphic closeness o he U.S. ma ke conside ably in luen- ces he in e na ional ade o he Cen al Ame ican and Ca ibbean coun ies (Ma hews & Cas o, 2010). This is due o he U.S.’s eco- nomic and poli ical powe , which se s he cou se and s a egies o he Cen al Ame ican and Ca ibbean coun ies, and in pa icula o Cos a Rica. This is e iden in he expo s owa ds he U.S.ma ke ha ha e his o ically ep esen ed and ep esen a ele an pe cen age wi hin he in e na ional ac i i ies o his coun y. Acco ding o CEPAL (2009), in 1990 he expo s om Cos a Rica (CR) owa ds he U.S. ma ke (USM.) ep esen ed 38.7%, om he o al expo s and o he yea 1995 hey had a simila beha io (38.2%), la e owa ds he yea 2000, he sha e g ew signi ican ly up o 49.1%. In ac , as hese da a show, he sus ained g ow h o CR expo s is based on he U.S. ma ke , as Monge (1996) s a ed. The e o e, he ole o he Uni ed S a es as a hos coun y o CR expo s is s ill impo an . Table 1 shows ha he U.S. ma ke has con inued o be he main ading pa ne o CR expo s o he las h ee yea s, wi h a sha e a e o app oxima ely36.7%. In sho , we can con i m ha his da a (see Table 1), shows he need o ca ying ou a deepe a he han a simple his o ic analysis in o de o quan i- a i ely show he eo ien a ion ha he indus ial sec o o Cos a Rica has expe imen ed in he las wen y yea s. <Table 1> S uc u e o he o al expo s o Cos a Rica acco ding o des ina ion ma ke s EXPORTS MILLION DOLLARS PERCENTAGE SHARE 2008 2009 2010* 2008 2009 2010* Uni ed S a es 3570.1 3099.7 3559.4 37.4% 36.0% 36.8% Mexico and Canada 296.9 243.4 328.1 3.1% 2.8% 3.4% Eu opean Union 1529.6 1505.5 1667.7 16.0% 17.5% 17.2% Cen al Ame ica 1312.0 1135.4 1667.7 13.7% 13.2% 17.2% Asia 1625.9 1532.1 1276.0 17.0% 17.8% 13.2% Ca ibbean 408.2 363.7 418.4 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% Sou h Ame ica 248.2 203.7 222.7 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% O he s 562.0 532.8 535.8 5.9% 6.2% 5.5% TOTAL 9552.9 8616.3 9675.8 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Sou ce: COMEX (2011) based on da a om PROCOMER (*) Da a subjec o e ision The e o e ou wo k has a double objec i e. On he one hand, we would like o de e mine whe he CR is no longe a adi ional and ex ile p oduc s expo e and has al eady become a hi- ech p od- 6 Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11 uc -wi h a high added alue o he inal clien – expo e . On he o he hand, i is also impo an o s udy he end o he beha io ha he in e na ional ac i i ies o his coun y will ha e, which would make ou esea ch ha e clea implica ions on managemen and poli ics. This pape is s uc u ed as ollows. Fi s , we de elop he li e a u e e iew on he Cos a Rica’s expo s. In he second sec ion we de ail he empi ical analysis, da a and me hodology. Then, he esea ch is discussed and inally he conclusions, implica ions and limi a ions a e p esen ed. 2. Li e a u e e iew T adi ionally since he beginning o he las cen u y and be o e he 80s, CR was cha ac e ized by expo ing adi ional p oduc s such as ui , co ee, suga , ma e, e c. (Sánchez, 2005; 2006; Monge, 1996). As o he ea ly 80s, CR expe ienceda change in i s in e na ional ac i i ies. The non- adi ional p oduc s s a ed o play a ele an ole in he expo - ela ed cu ency gene a ion. This was due mainly o he ac i e sha e o he maquila indus y. They we e cha ac e ized by he use o o eign inpu s and echnology, o cheap local wo k o ce and o dedica ing hei p oduc ion especially o expo s (Tay-Balde as, 2003). In CR his ype o en e p ise was ocused basically on he ex ile indus y, which se ed as apla o m o his coun y’s p oduc s’ in e na ionaliza ion, bu abo e all o hose coun ies which o e ed cheap wo k o ce, hus assu ing high p o i abili y le els o he pa en companies (Campbell & Ve beke, 1994; Dunning, 1989). Acco ding o Nowalski, Mo ales & Be lia sky (1994), " he maquila indus y was es ablished in Cos a Rica in he mid 70s; howe e , i was no un il 1983 ha an accele a ed g ow h p ocess s a ed." In 1983, he e we e 45 maquilas and 132 in 1986, om which 90 belonged o he ex ile indus y, and in 1991 he numbe o es ablish- edmaquilas doubled o 264 maquilas (Nowalski e al.,1994). Such was he impo ance o he o -sho ing phenomenon o he in e na ional p oduc ion o some mul ina ionals- abo e all Ame ican mul ina ionals in he Cos a Rican economy, ha he numbe o wo ke s inc eased om 5,600 in 1982 (equi alen o 5% o he wo ke s in he manu- ac u ing indus y) o 46,100 (25%) in 1990. This de elopmen was ein o ced du ing hose yea s wi h he ap- pea ance o he ee ade zones o expo s whe e a wo old neces- si y is sol ed: on he Cos a Rican side, inc easing expo p o i s, on he U.S. manu ac u e s’ side, dec easing p oduc ion cos s. Abo e all, CR needed o gene a e cu ency h ough expo s and hanks o cheap wo k o ce, CR ep esen ed ideal o -sho ing o he U.S. manu- ac u e s (De Alonso, 1992). This g ow h was mo i a ed mainly by a legal en i onmen o p e e en ial a i s om he Uni ed S a ed o Ame ica, which c ea ed good oppo uni ies h ough P o ision 807 o he U.S Ta i Code and he Ca ibbean Basin Ini ia i e (CBI). Also, in he second hal o he 90s, maquila expo s expe ienced an accel- e a ed g ow hin he ex ile and clo hes indus y, he same happened wi h o he p oduc s such as elec onic de ices and medical equipmen (BID, 2007). F om 1997 o 1999, maquila expo s inc eased 30.9% annually. In 1999, unde his egime, hey had eached US$9.3 billion, exceeding adi ional expo s o he i s ime, which amoun ed o US$ 8 billion. Due o he changes in he in e na ional ade mo i a ed by he globaliza ion o he ma ke s, in he 90s and du ing he beginning o 2000, CR s a ed s eng hening i s ins i u ionalism ocusing in he a - ac ion o hi- ech Fo eign Di ec In es men (FDI), which la e se ed as he basis o imp o e i s compe i i e capaci ies (BID, 2007). Gugle & B unne (2007) a i med ha he g ow h in he compe i i eness o de eloping coun ies was due mainly o FDIs. This lesson was e ec- i ely applied by he go e nmen and he en ep eneu ial o ganiza ions o CR, mo i a ing he es ablishmen o a egula o y amewo k ha os e ed and acili a ed he access o o eign en e p ises h ough FDIs (inwa d). These we e eo ien ed owa ds o he p oduc i e sec o s di - e en om he adi ional maquila ac o y, hus a oiding o un in o one o he main FDI isks, i.e. in in es men s wi h no added alue, denomina ed " he amp o he low added alue" (UNCTAD, 2002). This la e is ela ed o he a ac ion o low quali y FDIs, whe e he es ablished en e p ises a e only in e es ed in se ing li le chaining in he local economy and he e o e ha e li le capaci y o gene a e "spillo e s", ope a ing hen in a sho - e m pe iod. These en e p ises a e usually known as " ly by nigh " (CEPAL, 2003). To ha end, CR and he en ep eneu ial sec o s c ea ed specialized agencies, among which he Cos a Rican In es men P omo ion Agency (CINDE, 2001) and he P omo ion o Fo eign Comme ce (PROCOMER, 2011) s and ou . CEPAL (2003) summa izes: "CINDE along wi h he go e nmen decided o e ocus hei e o s o a ac o eign en e p ises owa ds quali ied wo k o ce in ense indus ies. In 1993, CINDE selec ed h ee key subsec o s: elec ic, elec onic and elecommunica ions. The s a egy p o ed o be especially success ul since i esul ed in signi ican imp o emen in he coun y’s echno- logical in as uc u e and impo an changes in CR’s p oduc i e s uc u e." Howe e , i is also impo an o ake in o conside a ion ha he e a e o he ac s ha allow unde s anding he es uc u a ion o CR expo s. One o hem was he in eg a ion o China o he Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO) in 2001,and he second is he las elimi- na ion s age o quo as ha he U.S. had wi h Cen al Ame ican coun- ies in 2005 unde he Mul i-Fibe Ag eemen . As es ablished by he WTO (2011), his ag eemen se he elimina ion o es ic ions o d essmaking expo s o de eloping coun ies and p oduce s in s ages, so ade would low as eely as possible. Due o hese ac s, g ea e ex ile ade ac i i y om China and Asia wi h he U.S. was expec ed, mainly in he ex ile sec o . The u h is ha conce n o he possible impac o China on he OCDE was also sha ed by all he coun ies, including he Uni ed S a es and he Eu opean Union (Walmsley & He el, 2000). In ac , i would no only a ec he appa el assembly wo ke s om he Ca ibbean and Cen al Ame ica, bu also Mexican appa el manu ac u e s. Unde hese ci cums ances, CR has di e si ied i s expo s, i has expe ienced change in i s composi ion and subs an ial imp o emen in he expo s olume o he U.S. 7Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11 3. Me hodology and sampling In o de o achie e he i s objec i e o his esea ch, he clus e me hod analysis will be employed wi h he expo da a om CR o he U.S. ma ke and he las 20 yea s as he cu -o pe iod.. In his way, we will es ablish i in his pe iod he e is a echnological clus- e concen a ion, o o he ypes o concen a ion, ha ha e made CR gainnew compe i i e ad an ages as a coun y wi h high expo po en ial. In he clus e analysis, he Euclidian me hod and he Wa d Technique will be used o calcula e he dis ances and he connec ions be ween hem. To ca y ou his ask he s a is icsso wa e SPSS ® 15.0 was used. The s udy pe iod co esponds o he yea s 1991-2010. This was di - ided in ou sub-pe iods o i e yea s each: The i s sub-pe iod is om 1991 o 1995, he second om 1996 o 2000, he hi d om 2001 o 2005 and he ou h om 2006 o 2010. In each sub-pe iod he mos impo an 20 wo-digi o he Ha monized Ta i Schedule (HTS) codes o he Uni ed S a es ha e been selec ed o hei expo pe cen age sha e om CR o USM. These ep esen : 93.8%, 94.6%, 93.9% and 97.8% o pe cen age sha e o he i s , second, hi d and ou h sub-pe iod, espec i ely. In o de o accomplish he second objec i e, a ime se ies analysis o he main 10 ca ego ies (HTS) was made using he las en yea s (2001-2010). The echnique employed o make p edic ions o ime se ies wi h o wi hou endency bu wi h no seasonali y was B own’s (2004), enown model o double exponen ial smoo hing which is a model ha uses dec easing mo ing a e age in a geome ic p o- g ession and inco po a es a endency componen .. 4. Da a and esul s analyses 4.1. Clus e Analysis Fi s Sub-pe iod: om 1991 o 1995 Table 2 p esen s he numbe s o dendog ams and hei HTS co e- sponding o he decade 1991– 2000. Using an Euclidian dis ance o 5, G aph 2 iden i ies 2 clus e s: Fi s Clus e : Fo med by HTS 39, 17, 95, 98, 22 84, 20, 6, 40, 90, 7, 3, 71, 9, 2 and 85, hese ep e- sen 31.8% o he sha e and belong o six indus ies: Be e age and obacco (17, 20 and 22), animal and animal p oduc s (2,3), ege able p oduc s (6, 7 y 9), plas ics and ubbe i ems (39 and 40), mechanic machine y and elec ic equipmen (84 and 85, wi h a 5.8% sha e be- ween bo h o hem), and miscellaneous i emssuch as u ni u e, oys (94 and 95). Second Clus e : o med by HTS 8, 62 and 61. These ep esen wo indus ies: ex iles, (61 and 62, wi h an a e age sha e o 40.8%) and ege able p oduc s (8, wi h an a e age sha eo 21.9%). I can be concluded ha in his sub-pe iod, CR expo s we e mainly ocused on wo k o ce in ensi e indus ies ep esen ed by he ex ile and ege able indus ies ha accoun ed o a 62.7% sha e. Second Sub-pe iod: om 1996 o 2000 F om G aph2, CR expo s a e g ouped in h ee clus e s. Fi s Clus e : Fo med by 15 ca ego ies: 95, 94, 22, 39, 17, 02, 40, 06, 98, 20, 07, 71, 03, 90 and 09, which belong o 5 indus ies ha accoun o 33% o he a e age sha eand a e: Be e age and obacco (17, 20 and 22), animals and animal p oduc s (2 and 3), ege able p oduc s (6, 7 and 9), plas ics and ubbe i ems (39 and 40) and u ni u e and oys (94 and 95). Second Clus e : Fo med by HTS 8, 62, 61 and 85. These co espond o h ee indus ies: ex ile manu ac u ing (61 and 62, wi h a sha e a e age o 27.6%), ege able p oduc s (08: F ui and seeds, wi h an a e age sha e o 15.4%) and elec ic equipmen and machine y(85, wi h an a e age sha e o 9.8% ). Thi d Clus e : Fo med by he machine y indus y and mechanical de ices (84, wi h a pe cen age sha e o 18.7%). This sub-pe iod s a s o show a change in CR expo s: The wo k o cein ensi e indus y ( ex ile and ege able indus ies) eached 43%, compa ed o he hi- ech indus y (84 and 85) which al eady accoun ed o 28.5% o he a e age sha e. Thi d Sub-pe iod: om 2001 o 2005 Table 3 ep esen s he co espondence o he numbe s wi h he ca - ego ies (HTS) used o he pe iods be ween 2000 and 2010, in he g aphic ep esen a ion o he dendog ams. F om G aph 3, in his sub-pe iod, 3 clus e s we e iden i ied. Fi s Clus e : Fo med by 15 HTS: 71, 39,99, 06, 94, 76, 17, 02, 84,09, 20, 07, 03, 40 and 98. These belonged o 8 di e en indus ies ha made 27% o he sha e and a e: Be e age and obacco (17,20), animals and animal p oduc s (2 and 3), ege able p oduc s (6, 7 and 9), plas ics and ubbe p od- uc s (39 and 40), machine y and mechanical pa s (84), me allic p od- uc s (98 and 99, na u al and cul i a ed pea ls(71) and miscellaneous such as u ni u e (94). Second Clus e : Fo med by he ex ile indus y (61 and 62). Wi h an a e age pe cen age sha e o 20%, his indus y is no longe impo an in CR expo s because hey los sha e om 40.8%, 27.6% and 20% in he i s , second and hi d sub-pe iods, espec i ely. Thi d Clus e : Fo med by 3 HTS: 90, 85 and 08. They ep esen 3 indus ies: Machine y and elec ic equipmen (85), medical and op ic equipmen (90) and he ege able indus y(8, wi h a sha e o 16%). The ca ego ies 85 and 90, a e echnology in ensi e wi h a sha e o 33% in CR expo s du ing his pe iod. The ege able in- dus y, due o a s ong compe i ion wi h he es o he Cen al Ame ican coun ies, has achie ed signi ican le els o compe i i eness. Fou h sub-pe iod: om 2006 o 2010 Acco ding o G aph 4, in his sub-pe iod 3 clus e s a e inden i ied: Fi s Clus e : Fo med by 16 HTS: 02,76, 94, 17, 71, 07, 03, 06, 39, 99, 62, 20 98, 40, 61 and 09. They belong o 8 di e en indus ies, ep esen ing 25% o he a e age sha e and hey a e: Be e age and o- bacco (17, 20), animals and animal p oduc s (2 and 3), ege able p oduc s (6: li e plan s, 7: ube s and oo s and 9 : co ee, ea and species), plas ics and ubbe i ems (39 and 40), me allic p oduc s (76), na u al and cul i a ed pea ls (71), miscellaneous i emssuch as u ni u e (94) and he ex ile indus y (61 and 62) which has a e y low pe cen age sha e wi h only 6% o he o al expo s. Second Clus e : Fo med by HTS 90, 8 and 85, o med by 3 indus ies: Machine y and mechanical equipmen (84), medical and op ic p oduc s (90) and he ege able indus y (8). The e a e wo indus ies: Machine y and mechanical equipmen (84), medical and op ic p oduc s 8 Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11 (90) and he ege able indus y (8). The e a e wo indus ies ha be- long o indus ies wi h hi- ech con en and ep esen 31% o he ex- po s a e age om CR o USM, and he ege able indus y (8), wi h a sha eo 14% o he o al expo s. Bo h ep esen 45%. Thi d clus- e : o med by only one HTS: 84 ha co esponds o he machine y and mechanical equipmen indus y, wi h an a e age sha e o 26% o he o al expo s. In his las sub-pe iod, be ween clus e 2 and clus e 3 he echnol- ogy in ense p oduc s and he e o e, wi h g ea e added alue, make up a o al o 57%, and ep esen mo e han hal o CR expo s. I is p ecisely in his pe iod in which a s ong concen a ion o echno- logical indus ies is e iden , he e o e clea ly showing in e na ional compe i i e po en ial. Combining hese wo clus e s, hey would ep e- sen 71% o he o al expo s om CR o USM ocused on 3 in- dus ies, wo o hem a e o hi- ech le el and he second one ege a- bles, which is wo k o ce in ensi e. <Table 2> Numbe s and hei co esponding HTS, using dendog ams om he decade 1991-2000 #HTS Desc ip ion 1HTS84 Nuclea eac o s, boile s, machine y and mechanical appliances 2HTS8 Edible ui and nu s, peel o ci us ui o melons 3HTS62 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, no kni ed o c oche ed 4HTS85 Elec ical machine y and equipmen and pa s he eo ; e c. 5HTS61 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, kni ed o c oche ed 6HTS90 Op ical, pho og aphic, medical o su gical ins umen s and appa a us 7HTS9 Co ee, ea, ma e and spices 8HTS3 Fish and c us aceans, mollusks and o he aqua ic in e eb a es 9HTS98 Special classi ica ion p o isions 10 HTS20 P epa a ions o ege ables, ui , nu s o o he pa s o plan s 11 HTS40 Rubbe and a icles he eo 12 HTS7 Edible ege ables and ce ain oo s and ube s 13 HTS6 Li e ees and o he plan s; cu lowe s and o namen al oliage 14 HTS71 Na u al o cul u ed pea ls, p ecious o semi-p ecious s ones 15 HTS2 Mea and edible mea o al 16 HTS22 Be e ages, spi i s and inega 17 HTS39 Plas ics and a icles he eo 18 HTS95 Toys, games and spo s equisi es; pa s and accesso ies he eo 19 HTS17 Suga s and suga con ec ione y 20 HTS94 Fu ni u e; bedding, ma esses, and simila s u ed u nishings <Figu e 1>Dendog am sub-pe iod 1991 - 1995 <Figu e 2> Dendog am sub-pe iod 1996 - 2000 <Table 3> Numbe s and hei co esponding HTS, using dendog ams om he decade 2001 - 2010 #HTS Desc ip ion 1HTS84 Nuclea eac o s, boile s, machine y and mechanical appliances 2HTS85 Elec ical machine y and equipmen and pa s he eo , e c. 3HTS90 Op ical, pho og aphic, medical o su gical ins umen s and appa a us 4HTS8 Edible ui and nu s; peel o ci us ui o melons 5HTS9 Co ee, ea, ma e and spices 6HTS40 Rubbe and a icles he eo 7HTS99 Tempo a y legisla ion; empo a y modi ica ions p oclaimed pu suan 8HTS20 P epa a ions o ege ables, ui , nu s o o he pa s o plan s 9HTS62 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, no kni ed o c oche ed 10 HTS61 A icles o appa el and clo hing accesso ies, kni ed o c oche ed 11 HTS71 Na u al o cul u ed pea ls, p ecious o semi-p ecious s ones 12 HTS7 Edible ege ables and ce ain oo s and ube s 13 HTS98 Special classi ica ion p o isions 14 HTS3 Fish and c us aceans, mollusks and o he aqua ic in e eb a es 15 HTS6 Li e ees and o he plan s; cu lowe s and o namen al oliage 16 HTS39 Plas ics and a icles he eo 17 HTS94 Fu ni u e; bedding, ma esses, and simila s u ed u nishings 18 HTS17 Suga s and suga con ec ione y 19 HTS2 Mea and edible mea o al 20 HTS76 Aluminum and a icles he eo <Figu e 3> Dendog am sub-pe iod 2001-2005 9Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11 <Figu e 4> Dendog am sub-pe iod 2006-2010 4.2. Time se ies analysis The beha io analysis o CR expo s o he U.S. ma ke would be incomple e i hey did no ha e a end calcula ion, meaning wha could happen in a nea u u e. Fo ou esea ch a ime limi o 5 yea s has been conside ed as o 2010. We use he his o ical quan i a- i e da a o he 10 main ca ego ies. The me hod used o ca y ou his ime se ies calcula ion co e- sponds o B own’s Simple Exponen ial Smoo hing (2004). To selec he op imal p edic ion, an op imal weigh ed coe icien (Alpha) has been i s calcula ed in each o he ca ego ies, so as o minimize he mean squa ed e o . This allows calcula ing a mo e ep esen a i e R2 o he model o g ea e eliabili y in he esul s. The esul s appea in Table 4, he numbe s a e iden i ied in bold ype, o dis inguish hem om he his o ical da a. This has only been used du ing he las decade as e e ence. G aph 5 has been calcula ed on his. <Table 4>T ends using exponen ial mo ing a e age o m yea s 2011-2015 Yea HTS 84 HTS 85 HTS 90 HTS 8 HTS 9 HTS 40 HTS 99 HTS 20 HTS 62 HTS 61 2001 115 498 298 514 103 43 32 57 387 384 2002 129 620 365 484 122 54 36 61 362 365 2003 117 814 480 519 126 62 42 60 281 309 2004 132 719 480 490 150 96 42 55 265 253 2005 265 547 524 512 157 111 42 54 246 238 2006 354 491 591 742 139 116 50 72 233 232 2007 430 416 650 731 159 122 52 117 194 229 2008 436 421 800 699 192 128 54 83 114 189 2009 2,610 274 791 648 157 121 76 82 83 123 2010 2,846 2,723 879 819 163 145 141 99 85 83 2011 2,306 1,512 936 778 175 148 125 95 60 89 2012 2,540 1,636 998 803 180 156 139 97 34 65 2013 2,773 1,759 1,060 827 184 164 152 100 741 2014 3,007 1,883 1,123 852 189 172 166 103 -19 16 2015 3,240 2,006 1,185 876 194 180 179 106 -45 -8 Alpha 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.25 R^2 0.60 0.40 0.97 0.70 0.67 0.90 0.61 0.53 0.96 0.95 Sou ce: "The a i and ade da a om he U.S. (2010). Depa men o Comme ce and he U.S. In e na ional T ade Commission"(ITA, 2011 by English ini ials) 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Yea s Billons o dola s HTS61 HTS84 HTS85 HTS90 HTS 8 HTS9 HTS40 HTS99 HTS20 HTS62 Va iable P edic ion o he 10 mo e impo an ca ego ies Sou ce: "The a i and ade da a om he U.S. Depa men o Comme ce and he U.S. In e na ional T ade Commission". Own elabo a ion <Figu e 5> P edic ion o he 10 mo e impo an ca ego ies o CR expo s o USM, du ing he nex 5 yea s Conside ing ha p edic ion is no an exac science, ins ead, as men- ioned by Heize & Rende (2011) " o make p edic ions is o com- bine a and science", and, e en mo e, aking in o accoun he g ow- ing complexi y o wo ld economy and he iolen echnological ad- ances ha we ha e expe ienced his las decade, we da e say ha he decisions o u u e in es o s and he opening o new businesses in Cos a Rica shall conside his. To calcula e he abo e men ioned p edic ions, he 10 main ca ego ies we e selec ed acco ding o hei con ibu ion o he ac i i ies ou side CR (i.e. expo s o USM) in 2010. 5. Conclusions and Implica ions The i s possible conclusion a e di e en analysis ca ied ou in- dica e ha 62.7% o Cos a Rican expo s di ec ed o he U.S. ma ke om1991 o 1995 we e ocused on cheap wo k o ce in ensi e in- dus ies, ep esen ed by he ex ile and ege able indus ies. In o he wo ds, CR’s in e na ional compe i i eness and he e o e i s in e na- ional economy lackedpo en ial o compe e in e na ionally wi h p od- uc s o high added alue, meaning a p oduc ion ha demands a high le el o echnological de elopmen . F om 2006 o 2010, 57% o i s expo s eached enough echnological de elopmen o be able o com- pe e wi h en e p ises om all o e he wo ld, especially wi h Chinese mul ina ionals. These esul s show how CR’s wo k o ce in ensi e in- dus ial sec o s, i.e. adi ional p oduc sexpo s (d essmaking, ege a- bles, co ee, ma e, species, e c.) will p og essi ely become expo e s o non- adi ional p oduc s wi h a hi- ech componen , o example: mechanical equipmen and de ices, elec onic de ices and medical equipmen . Wi hou a doub , his s a egic change in CR’s in e na ional ac i - i ies (expo s) has happened hanks o he con ibu ion o he mul ina- ional en e p ises es ablished in he coun y, d i en by he global ma - ke ends. Also, CR’s public policies should be conside ed and im- plemen ed based on he expe ience wi h CINDE and PROCOMER. 10 Jesús C. Peña-Vinces, Segundo Cas o, F ancisco Espasandín-Bus elo / Jou nal o Dis ibu ion Science 11-4 (2013) 5-11 No he leas impo an is he c ea ion o ac o s ela ed o he social and ins i u ional s uc u e, which in one way o ano he ,ha e con- ibu ed wi h CR’s good esul s , wi h ega ds o he ma ke quo a o non- adi ional expo s in he U.S. ma ke . Howe e , his is no he only aspec . In he global ma ke s, also some Eu opean coun ies such as Spain ha e s a ed o -sho ing hei indus y in he no h o A ica. On he o he hand, he expo s o adi ional p oduc s such as co - ee, ea, ma e and species (excep o ui and seeds), indica e a downwa d endency in he nex i e yea s. The e o e, in e es ed pa - ies in his indus ial segmen ha e an u gen challenge o upda e and inno a e o keep and imp o e hei cu en compe i i e ad an ages. We sugges keeping an eye on he oppo uni ies in he g owing ma - ke o o ganic c ops. The ex ile indus y, acco ding o ou ends, shows a se ious isk o disappea ing. I s all in he 4 sub-pe iods has been consis en and uns oppable, om a 40.8% sha e in he i s sub-pe iod o a 6% sha e in he las one. I no ex e nal agen modi ies hese endencies, we will wi ness i s disappea ance in a ew yea s. We should conside he Asian expe ience o he ex ile indus y o pa icipa ing in he whole alue chain (comple e package). We sugges he commi ed sec o s wi hin his sec o o ponde o e he implemen a ion o an "up-g ading" in hei indus ies. Se e al s udies indica e ha i hey dedica ed o p oduce he comple e package, hey could gene a e an inc ease o abou 50% o he inal p oduc cos s, depending on he appa el (Dusell, 2004). To conclude hese esul s indica e he need o an ac i e and joined pa icipa ion o he poli icians in cha ge o designing sus ainable de- elopmen and g ow h o a coun y, o he en ep eneu s who execu e he g ow h, and he in ellec ual capi al such as uni e si ies, in o de o ob ain app op ia e solu ions ha allow adequa e measu es o a oid sad economic si ua ions such as he ones we a e cu en ly li ing. Finally, in ega d o he social implica ions, we belie e ha ou esea ch becomes in a use ul ins umen o decision making, o p ac i ione s and policymake s o Cos a Rica and also o o he s La in Ame ican coun ies, wi h simila economic in e na ional beha io (i.e., CR). 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