1
Gul o Guinea ma i ime c iminali y analysis wi h
Geog aphic In o ma ion Sys ems
Miguel Bessa Pacheco 1)
1)Po uguese Na y, CINAV, Po ugal, bess[email p o ec ed]
Abs ac
O e he pas ew yea s, he Gul o Guin-
ea has been inc easing i s wo ld sha e o
oil p oduc ion. A he same ime, a med
obbe y and pi acy a acks ha e become a
pe manen h ea o he ma i ime agen s in
he egion. Oil he , c ew kidnapping o
ansom and obbe y o c ew and ship al-
uables a e he mos common ou comes o
success ul a acks.
To be e unde s and he phenomena, a
poli ical, economic, social and en i on-
men al analysis o he egion was pe -
o med, and a geog aphic in o ma ion sys-
em was de eloped o p o ide a deepe
analysis and unde s anding o he co ela-
ion be ween geog aphical and scope ac-
o s o his c iminal ac i i y, conside ing
he pe iod om Janua y 2012 o May
2015. The sys em in eg a es he land and
ma i ime bounda ies, popula ion, eligion,
oil/gas pla o ms, oil/gas ields, epo ed
a acks on ships and spa ial analysis e-
sul s.
Se e al ac o s a e poin ed ou as majo
con ibu o s o oday’s ma i ime c iminali y
in he Gul o Guinea. The geog aphic in-
o ma ion sys em analy ical ou pu s p o-
ide a iew o he geog aphical concen a-
ion, ends and pe cei e a slow dec eas-
ing o his h ea un il 2014 and a slow
g owing endency in 2015.
Keywo ds
Gul o Guinea; ma i ime pi acy; ma i ime
assaul s; shipping; oil.
1. In oduc ion
The Gul o Guinea (GoG) is a ma i ime
na u al esou ces ich en i onmen , bo h
li e and mine al. I s s a egic alue is
g owing p opo ionally o i s oil and gas
p oduc ion, and ishing is also no o be
neglec ed. O e he las ew yea s, he
shipping and ishing ac i i ies ha e been
unde pi acy (ou bound he e i o ial sea)
and a med obbe y assaul s (inbound he
e i o ial sea limi s). To deal wi h hese
illici ac i i ies se e al na ional, in e na-
ional and mul ina ional s a egies ha e
been designed. To be e unde s and he
ma i ime c iminali y p oblem o he GoG,
and decide on he bes lines o ac ion o
ake, a geospa ial analysis o he a ea and
i s ma i ime c iminali y was pe o med us-
ing a COTS geog aphic in o ma ion sys-
em (A cGIS). The pi acy and a med ob-
be y assaul da a was acqui ed om he
mon hly IMO epo s on ac s o pi acy and
a med obbe y agains ships, om Janu-
a y 2012 un il Decembe 2014 and om
he US Na y O ice o Na al In elligence
wo ldwide h ea o shipping epo s om
Janua y o May 2015.
2. The Gol o Guinea
The GoG comp ises a geog aphic a ea
ha goes om Cape Ve de and Senegal
in he no h along he Wes A ican coas
down o Angola in he sou h. Fo he pu -
pose o his pape only he li o al coun-
ies we e conside ed: Cape Ve de, Sene-
gal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Si-
e a Leone, Libe ia, I o y Coas , Ghana,
Togo, Benin, Nige ia, Came oons, Equa o-
ial Guinea, S. Tomé & P íncipe, Gabon,
Republic o he Congo, Democ a ic Re-
public o Congo and Angola. These coun-
ies a e membe s o se e al o ganiza ions
ha ha e been discussing he secu i y o
he GoG, namely he A ican Union, he
Economic Communi y o Cen al A ican
S a es (ECCAS), he Economic Communi-
y o Wes e n A ican S a es (ECOWAS)
and he Gul o Guinea Commission
(GGC).
2
The GoG a ea shipping (Halpe n & Wal-
b idge, 2008) ollows wo majo ou es.
One goes down o he Cape o Good
Hope and a ound A ica (ou bound) and
he o he ollows he coas o he GoG
coun ies and dissipa es as i eaches Ni-
ge ia ( ig. 1). The GoG ma i ime ou es o
Eu ope and he USA a e o g ea alue o
he e a e no chokepoin s be ween hei
coas s, and sailing dis ances a e sho e
han he ones o he Middle Eas g ea oil
p oducing coun ies. These ac o s a e
majo in anspo a ion cos s and secu i y
a ac i eness.
Fig. 1: GoG shipping, 2005
The ma i ime illici ac i i ies a e o be deal
di e en ly acco ding o li o al coun ies
so e eign y and ju isdic ion a eas. All GoG
coun ies ha e signed he Uni ed Na ions
Con en ion on he Law o he Sea
(UNCLOS). Al hough UNCLOS se s a
maximum wid h o he e i o ial sea o 12
nau ical miles om he base lines, Togo
s ill claims a wid h o 30 NM and Benin a
wid h o 200 NM ( ig. 2). This ac has im-
plica ions in he classi ica ion o ma i ime
illici ac i i ies such as pi acy o a med
obbe y assaul s, and in he way an e en
can be deal wi h by local au ho i ies and
he in e na ional communi y.
Fig. 2: GoG ma i ime bounda ies
The Exclusi e Economic Zone (EEZ) o
he GoG li o al coun ies sums up 3.3 mil-
lion km2, i s anking Cape Ve de, Angola
and Equa o ial Guinea. The e i o ial seas
add abou 208 housand km2 and he con-
inen al shel claims, so a p esen ed o
he Uni ed Na ions, ep esen an a ea o
abou 1.1 million km2.
In 2014 he GoG li o al coun ies sum up
abou 287 million people ( ig. 3), ep e-
sen ing abou one hi d o he A ican’s
con inen . Nige ia is a he same ime he
mos popula ed and he coun y wi h he
highes popula ion densi y (CIESIN &
CIAT, 2005).
Fig. 3: Popula ion (millions)
In 2014, he g oss domes ic p oduc
(GDP) was highes in Nige ia (1058 million
$), ollowed by Angola (175,5) and Ghana
(109,4) ( ig. 4).
3
Fig. 4: GDP, 2014
Equa o ial Guinea ($32.600) and Gabon
($21.600) had he highes GDP pe capi a,
be ween 2,5 and 4 imes highe han An-
gola ($8.200), he hi d in ank ( ig. 5).
Fig. 5: GDP pe capi a, 2014
In 2013 A ica p oduced 10.1% o wo ld’s
oil and 6.0% o gas (B i ish Pe oleum,
2014). A ica’s p o en ese es o oil and
gas ep esen 7.7% and 7.6% o he
wo ld’s, mos o hem loca ed in he GoG
a ea. In 2013 Nige ia p oduced a daily
a e age o 2322 housand ba els o oil
and Angola eached 1801 ( ig. 6). These
igu es and he ac ha he e a e no majo
in e na ional con lic s be ween GoG coun-
ies ha e led se e al analys s o lag a
g owing s a egic ole o he GoG in he
ene gy ma ke . Also, he g ade o GoG oil
is e y good. C ude oil is e alua ed ac-
co ding o i s swee ness (sulphu con en )
and weigh (API g a i y deg ee). The bes
alue o money om c ude oil dis illa ion
is achie ed om swee and ligh oil. GoG
oil is swee and ligh .
Fig. 6: Oil ields & p oduc ion, 2013
Fo oil and gas p oduc ion, in 2009, he e
we e 801 ixed pla o ms o he GoG
coun ies (Saldanha Bay IDZ, 2012, p.
15), and i is expec ed ha his numbe is
highe oday. Pipelines and loa ing uni s
a e used o s o e and anspo c ude and
gas om he pla o ms o e minals and o
sho e. In 2014, 37 o he wo ld’s 151 oil
loa ing p oduc ion s o age and o loading
uni s we e ope a ing in he GoG. To dig
new wells, he o sho e oil and gas indus-
ies use igs. In 2014, he GoG ig lee
was o abou 100 essels and pla o ms,
which had a u iliza ion a e o 65%. Al o-
ge he i is a e y signi ican and expen-
si e in as uc u e.
Some au ho s e e ha , in he GoG coun-
ies, only poli ical and economical na ion-
al leade s ha e been bene i ing om he
oil and gas indus ies (Fidelis Allen, 2012),
implying ha he e enues ha e no been
applied o he common social, economic
and en i onmen al policies. Acco ding o
he Resou ce Go e nance Index (Re e-
nue Wa ch Ins i u e, 2013), Nige ia (40 h),
Angola (41s ) and Republic Democ a ic o
Congo (44 h) ha e “weak” na u al e-
sou ces e enues go e nance sco es
while Came oons (47 h) and Equa o ial
Guinea (56 h) a e conside ed o be “ ailing”
in hei e enues go e nance. Only Ghana
(15 h) and Libe ia (16 h) ha e a classi ica-
ion o “pa ial sa is ac o y” ( ig. 7). No
GoG coun y is classi ied in he “sa is ac-
o y” ank o na u al esou ces e enues
go e nance.
4
Fig. 7: Resou ce Go e nance Index
In e na ional, egional and local c iminal
ac i i ies a e in insically ela ed wi h he
incapaci y o s a es o make and/o en-
o ce hei laws. This was clea when So-
malia go e nmen collapsed and ma i ime
pi acy wen o he oo . The agile s a es
index is published annually and i anks
he wo ld coun ies ega ding hei col-
lapse p obabili y (Fund o Peace, 2014).
This index akes in o accoun , among o h-
e indica o s, he demog aphic p essu e,
g oup g ie ance, une en de elopmen ,
po e y and economic decline, human
igh s and secu i y appa a us. The poli ical
eali y in he GoG is gene ally e alua ed
as agile due o egime challenge o in-
s abili y, gene alized po e y and high le -
els o c iminali y. In he GoG coun ies
he e a e i e ha igu e wi hin he 20 h
mos agile s a es in he wo ld. Democ a -
ic Republic o Congo is he 4 h mos ag-
ile, being included in a se o coun ies in
e y high ale . Guinea, I o y Coas and
Guinea-Bissau a e in he high ale lis and
Nige ia, in he 17 h place, is in he simple
ale lis ( ig. 8).
Fig. 8: F agile s a es index
Among he GoG coun ies, Angola is he
one wi h he mos une en de elopmen ,
ollowed by Equa o ial Guinea and Nige-
ia. Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Sie a
Leone a e he ones wi h mo e po e y.
Democ a ic Republic o Congo, Equa o ial
Guinea and Nige ia a e he wo s e alua -
ed conside ing human igh s.
Despi e i s ichness in na u al esou ces,
he GoG a ea is expe iencing ma i ime
sa e y and secu i y p oblems ha migh
a ec u u e in es men s in he oil and gas
indus ies. Secu i y in he GoG is a majo
p oblem, namely due o ship obbe y, kid-
napping o hos aking and oil he .
The numbe o pi acy and a med obbe y
a acks in he GoG, om 2012 un il May
2015, eached a o al o 172 ( ig. 9), in
many o which hos ages we e aken. In
2013, he GoG pi acy and a med obbe y
assaul s es ima ion o p ima y economic
cos s o s akeholde s we e be ween $565
million and $681 million (Oceans Beyond
Pi acy, 2014, p. 55). These numbe s s ill
di e signi ican ly om he 2013 Somali
pi acy economic cos s ha we e es ima ed
be ween $3.000 million and $3.200 million
(ibidem, p. 7).
Fig. 9: Pi acy and assaul s 2012-
2015(May)
The shipping indus y is no comple ely
innocen in he GoG c iminali y schemes.
Some c ews also pa icipa e in i egula
ac i i ies selling some unaccoun ed oil o
p i a e bene i , o ans e ing s olen oil
om he black o he clean oil ma ke . Fo
his eason, some a acks a e no epo ed
o au ho i ies and he o icial ma i ime e-
la ed c ime numbe s a e conside ed con-
5
se a i e.
The GoG is an a ea o open wa e s in he
A lan ic, and a acks o ships a e mainly
made inside o nea he coun ies’ e i o-
ial seas, when hey a e ancho ed o slow
mo ing. In Somalia, a acked ships and
hei whole c ew a e aken o ansom and
can be held hos age o e y long pe iods
o ime, some imes yea s. In he GoG,
c iminals selec high alue c ew membe s
(i.e. he cap ain and he head o enginee -
ing) and ake hem o land o ansom.
Ships a e no held o mo e han a ew
days, jus enough o ans e he oil in o a
ship en olled in he black ma ke o o a
s o e si e asho e. A acke s in he GoG
a e mo e iolen han in he Indian Ocean.
They also a e e y well a med and ha e
some capabili y o di ec ly igh law en-
o cemen au ho i ies.
When analyzing he ma i ime illici ac i i-
ies in he GoG he e a e wo majo ena-
ble s: he limi ed au ho i y capabili ies o
coas al s a es and he esou ces go e n-
ance. The i s includes limi ed coope a-
ion be ween s a es, limi ed ma i ime si ua-
ional awa eness and limi ed na ies and
coas gua ds capabili ies. The la e in-
cludes all he ac o s ha a ec agile
s a es, co up ion and low na u al e-
sou ces e enue anspa ency.
The p oblems ha a ise om he ma i ime
illici ac i i ies can be g ouped in i e di -
e en a eas: illegal, un epo ed and un-
egula ed ishing ha damages local
economies and con ibu e o he deg ada-
ion o na u al esou ces sus ainabili y;
en i onmen deg ada ion by oxic was e
dumping; a icking & smuggling o d ugs,
a ms and people; damaging o he oil &
gas in as uc u es o oil he , specially
pipelines (which is also a sou ce o majo
inland and nea sho e oil spills); and ship-
ping ha is a ec ed by obbe y, c ew kid-
napping o ansom, oil he and oil smug-
gling ha is sold o he oil black ma ke .
Da a mining and analyzing he GoG pi acy
and a med obbe y assaul da abase one
can e i y ha a acks a e mo e equen
om Feb ua y o Sep embe ( ig. 10).
Fig. 10: A acks “yea s by mon hs”
Conside ing he ma i ime a eas whe e he
172 a acks occu ed, 88 ook place inside
he coun ies’ e i o ial o in e io wa e s
(33 in 2012, 23 in 2013, 23 in 2014 and 9
in 2015) and 84 ou side. O all hese a -
acks, 65 we e a emp s ha o some ea-
son had no consequences on ships, hei
c ew o ca go ( ig. 11).
Fig. 11: Success o a acks
The wo s ypes o a acks a e he ones
ha include kidnapping, inju ies o he
dea h o c ew membe s, hijacking a ship
and s ealing i s ca go. O he mino conse-
quences include s ealing ship and c ew
aluables, empo a y aking o hos ages
and he des uc ion o ma e ial, no mally
he ship’s communica ion sys ems. One
a ack may include mo e han one ype o
consequences. The majo i y o success ul
a acks is ocused in s ealing ship alua-
bles (46) and c ew aluables (32). Ship
hijacking occu ed 18 imes and 8 a acks
esul ed in he dea h o c ew membe s

6
( ig. 12), 7 o which occu ed in Nige ian
wa e s.
Fig. 12: A acks ou come
The numbe o a acks o ships ha had
majo consequences has allen down in
he pe iod be ween 2012 and 2014 (18,
12, 9), bu by May 2015 he numbe o
hese occu ences was al eady 7, e lec -
ing a endency o inc ease.
O all GoG ma i ime a acks o ships,
abou 46% (79) occu ed in he Nige ian
EEZ, e i o ial sea o in e io wa e s. Mos
o hese a acks occu ed in he Lagos
ancho age si e o be ween he wo majo
oil and gas explo ing a eas o he Bayelsa
s a e ( ig. 13).
Fig. 13: A acks in Nige ian wa e s
In o de o be e unde s and he geo-
g aphic endencies o he a acks, a spa-
ial densi y analysis was pe o med o
each yea and also he whole pe iod om
2012 un il May 2015.
Figu e 14 shows he densi y analysis o
he a acks in 2012. The highes concen-
a ion is in he Togo ancho age o Lomé,
ollowed by he Nige ian wa e s o sho e
Bayelsa and he I o y Coas ancho age o
Abidjan, he Nige ian ancho age o Lagos
and he Congolese ancho age o Poin
Noi .
Fig. 14: Densi y o a acks in 2012
In 2013 he highes densi y o a acks oc-
cu ed on he wa e s o he Nige ian
Bayelsa s a e, ollowed by he Togo an-
cho age o Lomé and he Nige ian an-
cho age o Lagos ( ig. 15). The igu es a
Abidjan and Poin Noi ancho age si es
didn’ change much om he p e ious
yea .
Fig. 15: Densi y o a acks in 2013
In 2014 wo a eas p esen ed e y high
concen a ion o a acks: he Poin Noi
ancho age si e and he wa e s o he Ni-
ge ian s a e o Bayelsa ( ig. 16). The La-
gos ancho age si e p esen s a lowe , bu
s ill no iceable, alue.
Fig. 16: Densi y o a acks in 2014
In 2015 (Janua y o May) he highe con-
7
cen a ion o a acks ook place a he La-
gos ancho age si e and he wa e s o he
Akwa Ibom Nige ian s a e, nea he bo de
wi h he Came oon, whe e he e is a e y
la ge numbe o oil and gas indus y in a-
s uc u es ( ig. 17).
Fig. 17: Densi y o a acks in 2015
Conside ing he pe iod om 2012 o May
2015, he densi y o a acks analysis
shows ha he ho spo s o he GoG pi acy
and a med obbe y assaul s a e ou an-
cho age si es (Abidjan, Lomé, Lagos and
Poin Noi ) and he wa e s o he Nige ian
s a e o Bayelsa ( ig. 18).
Fig. 18: Densi y o a acks 2012-2015
One o he majo conce ns ela ed o oil
he is ha a some poin in ime he Is-
lamic g oup Boko Ha am, which e o izes
he no h o Nige ia, could be able o ge
con ol o some pa cels o land in he
sou h and inance i s ac i i ies wi h oil.
This would lead o a di e en scale o in-
secu i y in he egion and he es ablish-
men o links wi h o he e o is o ganiza-
ions. Figu e 19 shows he Boko Ha am
a acks in he pe iod be ween 2009 and
2013, as well as he pi acy a acks o Ni-
ge ia in he pe iod 2012-2015. In he
backg ound one can also see he domi-
nan eligion in he di e en a eas o he
GoG (Muslims, Ch is ians and T ibalis s).
The map shows a e y big geospa ial gap
be ween he loca ions whe e he wo di -
e en ypes o a acks occu . Also i is is-
ible ha , a his ime, Boko Ha am has a
pa icula ocus on Nige ian s a es o Mus-
lim eligion and ha he Ch is ian s a es
ep esen a geospa ial b eak in i s e i o-
ial ac i i ies.
Fig. 19: Te o ism & pi acy
3. Conclusions
The s a egic alue o he GoG is g owing
due o i s ichness in na u al esou ces,
especially oil and gas. Fo he las ew
yea s, he shipping ac i i y in he GoG has
been a ge ed by pi acy and a med ob-
be y assaul s.
The e we e 172 epo s o pi acy and
a med obbe y a acks in he GoG in he
pe iod om 2012 un il May 2015. Abou
38% o hese a acks didn’ esul in any
damages o ships, hei c ew o ca go.
The numbe o a acks has dec eased be-
ween 2012 and 2014. In 2015 i is no ice-
able an inc easing endency, especially in
a acks ha esul ed in ship hijacking,
c ew kidnapping o ca go s olen. C ew
membe s died in eigh a acks, se en o
which occu ed in Nige ian wa e s. The
numbe o pi acy a acks (ou bound he
e i o ial seas) and a med obbe y as-
saul s (inbound he e i o ial seas) is e y
simila (84/88).
The spa ial dis ibu ion and densi y analy-
sis o he a acks show ha he ancho age
si es o Abidjan, Lomé, Lagos and Poin
Noi and he wa e s o he Nige ian s a e
o Bayelsa a e he ho spo s o he GoG
8
ma i ime c iminali y.
The illici ma i ime ac i i y in he GoG has
he main objec i es o s eal he ca go om
anke s, o sell i in he oil black ma ke ,
and o kidnap high alued c ew membe s
o ansom.
The geospa ial gap be ween Boko Ha am
a acks and ma i ime a acks is e y big.
This gap sugges s ha , o he ime being,
he e is no connec ion be ween he wo
phenomena.
The use o a geog aphic in o ma ion sys-
em o he GoG ma i ime c iminali y anal-
ysis was e y use ul o disco e bo h em-
po al and spa ial pa e ns and endencies
o he a acks.
Re e ences
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he Gul o Guinea: Re lec ions on he
Ex e nal and Domes ic Linkages”,
Jou nal o Sus ainable De elopmen ,
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182 o nº 220.
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Ma ine Repai Complex A The
Saldanha Bay Idz - Annexu e 1. [S.l.],
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