Gulf of Guinea maritime criminality analysis with Geographic Information Systems

1 Gul o Guinea ma i ime c iminali y analysis wi h Geog aphic In o ma ion Sys ems Miguel Bessa Pacheco 1) 1)Po uguese Na y, CINAV, Po ugal, bess[email p o ec ed] Abs ac O e he pas ew yea s, he Gul o Guin- ea has been inc easing i s wo ld sha e o oil p oduc ion. A he same ime, a med obbe y and pi acy a acks ha e become a pe manen h ea o he ma i ime agen s in he egion. Oil he , c ew kidnapping o ansom and obbe y o c ew and ship al- uables a e he mos common ou comes o success ul a acks. To be e unde s and he phenomena, a poli ical, economic, social and en i on- men al analysis o he egion was pe - o med, and a geog aphic in o ma ion sys- em was de eloped o p o ide a deepe analysis and unde s anding o he co ela- ion be ween geog aphical and scope ac- o s o his c iminal ac i i y, conside ing he pe iod om Janua y 2012 o May 2015. The sys em in eg a es he land and ma i ime bounda ies, popula ion, eligion, oil/gas pla o ms, oil/gas ields, epo ed a acks on ships and spa ial analysis e- sul s. Se e al ac o s a e poin ed ou as majo con ibu o s o oday’s ma i ime c iminali y in he Gul o Guinea. The geog aphic in- o ma ion sys em analy ical ou pu s p o- ide a iew o he geog aphical concen a- ion, ends and pe cei e a slow dec eas- ing o his h ea un il 2014 and a slow g owing endency in 2015. Keywo ds Gul o Guinea; ma i ime pi acy; ma i ime assaul s; shipping; oil. 1. In oduc ion The Gul o Guinea (GoG) is a ma i ime na u al esou ces ich en i onmen , bo h li e and mine al. I s s a egic alue is g owing p opo ionally o i s oil and gas p oduc ion, and ishing is also no o be neglec ed. O e he las ew yea s, he shipping and ishing ac i i ies ha e been unde pi acy (ou bound he e i o ial sea) and a med obbe y assaul s (inbound he e i o ial sea limi s). To deal wi h hese illici ac i i ies se e al na ional, in e na- ional and mul ina ional s a egies ha e been designed. To be e unde s and he ma i ime c iminali y p oblem o he GoG, and decide on he bes lines o ac ion o ake, a geospa ial analysis o he a ea and i s ma i ime c iminali y was pe o med us- ing a COTS geog aphic in o ma ion sys- em (A cGIS). The pi acy and a med ob- be y assaul da a was acqui ed om he mon hly IMO epo s on ac s o pi acy and a med obbe y agains ships, om Janu- a y 2012 un il Decembe 2014 and om he US Na y O ice o Na al In elligence wo ldwide h ea o shipping epo s om Janua y o May 2015. 2. The Gol o Guinea The GoG comp ises a geog aphic a ea ha goes om Cape Ve de and Senegal in he no h along he Wes A ican coas down o Angola in he sou h. Fo he pu - pose o his pape only he li o al coun- ies we e conside ed: Cape Ve de, Sene- gal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Si- e a Leone, Libe ia, I o y Coas , Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nige ia, Came oons, Equa o- ial Guinea, S. Tomé & P íncipe, Gabon, Republic o he Congo, Democ a ic Re- public o Congo and Angola. These coun- ies a e membe s o se e al o ganiza ions ha ha e been discussing he secu i y o he GoG, namely he A ican Union, he Economic Communi y o Cen al A ican S a es (ECCAS), he Economic Communi- y o Wes e n A ican S a es (ECOWAS) and he Gul o Guinea Commission (GGC). 2 The GoG a ea shipping (Halpe n & Wal- b idge, 2008) ollows wo majo ou es. One goes down o he Cape o Good Hope and a ound A ica (ou bound) and he o he ollows he coas o he GoG coun ies and dissipa es as i eaches Ni- ge ia ( ig. 1). The GoG ma i ime ou es o Eu ope and he USA a e o g ea alue o he e a e no chokepoin s be ween hei coas s, and sailing dis ances a e sho e han he ones o he Middle Eas g ea oil p oducing coun ies. These ac o s a e majo in anspo a ion cos s and secu i y a ac i eness. Fig. 1: GoG shipping, 2005 The ma i ime illici ac i i ies a e o be deal di e en ly acco ding o li o al coun ies so e eign y and ju isdic ion a eas. All GoG coun ies ha e signed he Uni ed Na ions Con en ion on he Law o he Sea (UNCLOS). Al hough UNCLOS se s a maximum wid h o he e i o ial sea o 12 nau ical miles om he base lines, Togo s ill claims a wid h o 30 NM and Benin a wid h o 200 NM ( ig. 2). This ac has im- plica ions in he classi ica ion o ma i ime illici ac i i ies such as pi acy o a med obbe y assaul s, and in he way an e en can be deal wi h by local au ho i ies and he in e na ional communi y. Fig. 2: GoG ma i ime bounda ies The Exclusi e Economic Zone (EEZ) o he GoG li o al coun ies sums up 3.3 mil- lion km2, i s anking Cape Ve de, Angola and Equa o ial Guinea. The e i o ial seas add abou 208 housand km2 and he con- inen al shel claims, so a p esen ed o he Uni ed Na ions, ep esen an a ea o abou 1.1 million km2. In 2014 he GoG li o al coun ies sum up abou 287 million people ( ig. 3), ep e- sen ing abou one hi d o he A ican’s con inen . Nige ia is a he same ime he mos popula ed and he coun y wi h he highes popula ion densi y (CIESIN & CIAT, 2005). Fig. 3: Popula ion (millions) In 2014, he g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) was highes in Nige ia (1058 million $), ollowed by Angola (175,5) and Ghana (109,4) ( ig. 4). 3 Fig. 4: GDP, 2014 Equa o ial Guinea ($32.600) and Gabon ($21.600) had he highes GDP pe capi a, be ween 2,5 and 4 imes highe han An- gola ($8.200), he hi d in ank ( ig. 5). Fig. 5: GDP pe capi a, 2014 In 2013 A ica p oduced 10.1% o wo ld’s oil and 6.0% o gas (B i ish Pe oleum, 2014). A ica’s p o en ese es o oil and gas ep esen 7.7% and 7.6% o he wo ld’s, mos o hem loca ed in he GoG a ea. In 2013 Nige ia p oduced a daily a e age o 2322 housand ba els o oil and Angola eached 1801 ( ig. 6). These igu es and he ac ha he e a e no majo in e na ional con lic s be ween GoG coun- ies ha e led se e al analys s o lag a g owing s a egic ole o he GoG in he ene gy ma ke . Also, he g ade o GoG oil is e y good. C ude oil is e alua ed ac- co ding o i s swee ness (sulphu con en ) and weigh (API g a i y deg ee). The bes alue o money om c ude oil dis illa ion is achie ed om swee and ligh oil. GoG oil is swee and ligh . Fig. 6: Oil ields & p oduc ion, 2013 Fo oil and gas p oduc ion, in 2009, he e we e 801 ixed pla o ms o he GoG coun ies (Saldanha Bay IDZ, 2012, p. 15), and i is expec ed ha his numbe is highe oday. Pipelines and loa ing uni s a e used o s o e and anspo c ude and gas om he pla o ms o e minals and o sho e. In 2014, 37 o he wo ld’s 151 oil loa ing p oduc ion s o age and o loading uni s we e ope a ing in he GoG. To dig new wells, he o sho e oil and gas indus- ies use igs. In 2014, he GoG ig lee was o abou 100 essels and pla o ms, which had a u iliza ion a e o 65%. Al o- ge he i is a e y signi ican and expen- si e in as uc u e. Some au ho s e e ha , in he GoG coun- ies, only poli ical and economical na ion- al leade s ha e been bene i ing om he oil and gas indus ies (Fidelis Allen, 2012), implying ha he e enues ha e no been applied o he common social, economic and en i onmen al policies. Acco ding o he Resou ce Go e nance Index (Re e- nue Wa ch Ins i u e, 2013), Nige ia (40 h), Angola (41s ) and Republic Democ a ic o Congo (44 h) ha e “weak” na u al e- sou ces e enues go e nance sco es while Came oons (47 h) and Equa o ial Guinea (56 h) a e conside ed o be “ ailing” in hei e enues go e nance. Only Ghana (15 h) and Libe ia (16 h) ha e a classi ica- ion o “pa ial sa is ac o y” ( ig. 7). No GoG coun y is classi ied in he “sa is ac- o y” ank o na u al esou ces e enues go e nance. 4 Fig. 7: Resou ce Go e nance Index In e na ional, egional and local c iminal ac i i ies a e in insically ela ed wi h he incapaci y o s a es o make and/o en- o ce hei laws. This was clea when So- malia go e nmen collapsed and ma i ime pi acy wen o he oo . The agile s a es index is published annually and i anks he wo ld coun ies ega ding hei col- lapse p obabili y (Fund o Peace, 2014). This index akes in o accoun , among o h- e indica o s, he demog aphic p essu e, g oup g ie ance, une en de elopmen , po e y and economic decline, human igh s and secu i y appa a us. The poli ical eali y in he GoG is gene ally e alua ed as agile due o egime challenge o in- s abili y, gene alized po e y and high le - els o c iminali y. In he GoG coun ies he e a e i e ha igu e wi hin he 20 h mos agile s a es in he wo ld. Democ a - ic Republic o Congo is he 4 h mos ag- ile, being included in a se o coun ies in e y high ale . Guinea, I o y Coas and Guinea-Bissau a e in he high ale lis and Nige ia, in he 17 h place, is in he simple ale lis ( ig. 8). Fig. 8: F agile s a es index Among he GoG coun ies, Angola is he one wi h he mos une en de elopmen , ollowed by Equa o ial Guinea and Nige- ia. Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Sie a Leone a e he ones wi h mo e po e y. Democ a ic Republic o Congo, Equa o ial Guinea and Nige ia a e he wo s e alua - ed conside ing human igh s. Despi e i s ichness in na u al esou ces, he GoG a ea is expe iencing ma i ime sa e y and secu i y p oblems ha migh a ec u u e in es men s in he oil and gas indus ies. Secu i y in he GoG is a majo p oblem, namely due o ship obbe y, kid- napping o hos aking and oil he . The numbe o pi acy and a med obbe y a acks in he GoG, om 2012 un il May 2015, eached a o al o 172 ( ig. 9), in many o which hos ages we e aken. In 2013, he GoG pi acy and a med obbe y assaul s es ima ion o p ima y economic cos s o s akeholde s we e be ween $565 million and $681 million (Oceans Beyond Pi acy, 2014, p. 55). These numbe s s ill di e signi ican ly om he 2013 Somali pi acy economic cos s ha we e es ima ed be ween $3.000 million and $3.200 million (ibidem, p. 7). Fig. 9: Pi acy and assaul s 2012- 2015(May) The shipping indus y is no comple ely innocen in he GoG c iminali y schemes. Some c ews also pa icipa e in i egula ac i i ies selling some unaccoun ed oil o p i a e bene i , o ans e ing s olen oil om he black o he clean oil ma ke . Fo his eason, some a acks a e no epo ed o au ho i ies and he o icial ma i ime e- la ed c ime numbe s a e conside ed con- 5 se a i e. The GoG is an a ea o open wa e s in he A lan ic, and a acks o ships a e mainly made inside o nea he coun ies’ e i o- ial seas, when hey a e ancho ed o slow mo ing. In Somalia, a acked ships and hei whole c ew a e aken o ansom and can be held hos age o e y long pe iods o ime, some imes yea s. In he GoG, c iminals selec high alue c ew membe s (i.e. he cap ain and he head o enginee - ing) and ake hem o land o ansom. Ships a e no held o mo e han a ew days, jus enough o ans e he oil in o a ship en olled in he black ma ke o o a s o e si e asho e. A acke s in he GoG a e mo e iolen han in he Indian Ocean. They also a e e y well a med and ha e some capabili y o di ec ly igh law en- o cemen au ho i ies. When analyzing he ma i ime illici ac i i- ies in he GoG he e a e wo majo ena- ble s: he limi ed au ho i y capabili ies o coas al s a es and he esou ces go e n- ance. The i s includes limi ed coope a- ion be ween s a es, limi ed ma i ime si ua- ional awa eness and limi ed na ies and coas gua ds capabili ies. The la e in- cludes all he ac o s ha a ec agile s a es, co up ion and low na u al e- sou ces e enue anspa ency. The p oblems ha a ise om he ma i ime illici ac i i ies can be g ouped in i e di - e en a eas: illegal, un epo ed and un- egula ed ishing ha damages local economies and con ibu e o he deg ada- ion o na u al esou ces sus ainabili y; en i onmen deg ada ion by oxic was e dumping; a icking & smuggling o d ugs, a ms and people; damaging o he oil & gas in as uc u es o oil he , specially pipelines (which is also a sou ce o majo inland and nea sho e oil spills); and ship- ping ha is a ec ed by obbe y, c ew kid- napping o ansom, oil he and oil smug- gling ha is sold o he oil black ma ke . Da a mining and analyzing he GoG pi acy and a med obbe y assaul da abase one can e i y ha a acks a e mo e equen om Feb ua y o Sep embe ( ig. 10). Fig. 10: A acks “yea s by mon hs” Conside ing he ma i ime a eas whe e he 172 a acks occu ed, 88 ook place inside he coun ies’ e i o ial o in e io wa e s (33 in 2012, 23 in 2013, 23 in 2014 and 9 in 2015) and 84 ou side. O all hese a - acks, 65 we e a emp s ha o some ea- son had no consequences on ships, hei c ew o ca go ( ig. 11). Fig. 11: Success o a acks The wo s ypes o a acks a e he ones ha include kidnapping, inju ies o he dea h o c ew membe s, hijacking a ship and s ealing i s ca go. O he mino conse- quences include s ealing ship and c ew aluables, empo a y aking o hos ages and he des uc ion o ma e ial, no mally he ship’s communica ion sys ems. One a ack may include mo e han one ype o consequences. The majo i y o success ul a acks is ocused in s ealing ship alua- bles (46) and c ew aluables (32). Ship hijacking occu ed 18 imes and 8 a acks esul ed in he dea h o c ew membe s 6 ( ig. 12), 7 o which occu ed in Nige ian wa e s. Fig. 12: A acks ou come The numbe o a acks o ships ha had majo consequences has allen down in he pe iod be ween 2012 and 2014 (18, 12, 9), bu by May 2015 he numbe o hese occu ences was al eady 7, e lec - ing a endency o inc ease. O all GoG ma i ime a acks o ships, abou 46% (79) occu ed in he Nige ian EEZ, e i o ial sea o in e io wa e s. Mos o hese a acks occu ed in he Lagos ancho age si e o be ween he wo majo oil and gas explo ing a eas o he Bayelsa s a e ( ig. 13). Fig. 13: A acks in Nige ian wa e s In o de o be e unde s and he geo- g aphic endencies o he a acks, a spa- ial densi y analysis was pe o med o each yea and also he whole pe iod om 2012 un il May 2015. Figu e 14 shows he densi y analysis o he a acks in 2012. The highes concen- a ion is in he Togo ancho age o Lomé, ollowed by he Nige ian wa e s o sho e Bayelsa and he I o y Coas ancho age o Abidjan, he Nige ian ancho age o Lagos and he Congolese ancho age o Poin Noi . Fig. 14: Densi y o a acks in 2012 In 2013 he highes densi y o a acks oc- cu ed on he wa e s o he Nige ian Bayelsa s a e, ollowed by he Togo an- cho age o Lomé and he Nige ian an- cho age o Lagos ( ig. 15). The igu es a Abidjan and Poin Noi ancho age si es didn’ change much om he p e ious yea . Fig. 15: Densi y o a acks in 2013 In 2014 wo a eas p esen ed e y high concen a ion o a acks: he Poin Noi ancho age si e and he wa e s o he Ni- ge ian s a e o Bayelsa ( ig. 16). The La- gos ancho age si e p esen s a lowe , bu s ill no iceable, alue. Fig. 16: Densi y o a acks in 2014 In 2015 (Janua y o May) he highe con- 7 cen a ion o a acks ook place a he La- gos ancho age si e and he wa e s o he Akwa Ibom Nige ian s a e, nea he bo de wi h he Came oon, whe e he e is a e y la ge numbe o oil and gas indus y in a- s uc u es ( ig. 17). Fig. 17: Densi y o a acks in 2015 Conside ing he pe iod om 2012 o May 2015, he densi y o a acks analysis shows ha he ho spo s o he GoG pi acy and a med obbe y assaul s a e ou an- cho age si es (Abidjan, Lomé, Lagos and Poin Noi ) and he wa e s o he Nige ian s a e o Bayelsa ( ig. 18). Fig. 18: Densi y o a acks 2012-2015 One o he majo conce ns ela ed o oil he is ha a some poin in ime he Is- lamic g oup Boko Ha am, which e o izes he no h o Nige ia, could be able o ge con ol o some pa cels o land in he sou h and inance i s ac i i ies wi h oil. This would lead o a di e en scale o in- secu i y in he egion and he es ablish- men o links wi h o he e o is o ganiza- ions. Figu e 19 shows he Boko Ha am a acks in he pe iod be ween 2009 and 2013, as well as he pi acy a acks o Ni- ge ia in he pe iod 2012-2015. In he backg ound one can also see he domi- nan eligion in he di e en a eas o he GoG (Muslims, Ch is ians and T ibalis s). The map shows a e y big geospa ial gap be ween he loca ions whe e he wo di - e en ypes o a acks occu . Also i is is- ible ha , a his ime, Boko Ha am has a pa icula ocus on Nige ian s a es o Mus- lim eligion and ha he Ch is ian s a es ep esen a geospa ial b eak in i s e i o- ial ac i i ies. Fig. 19: Te o ism & pi acy 3. Conclusions The s a egic alue o he GoG is g owing due o i s ichness in na u al esou ces, especially oil and gas. Fo he las ew yea s, he shipping ac i i y in he GoG has been a ge ed by pi acy and a med ob- be y assaul s. The e we e 172 epo s o pi acy and a med obbe y a acks in he GoG in he pe iod om 2012 un il May 2015. Abou 38% o hese a acks didn’ esul in any damages o ships, hei c ew o ca go. The numbe o a acks has dec eased be- ween 2012 and 2014. In 2015 i is no ice- able an inc easing endency, especially in a acks ha esul ed in ship hijacking, c ew kidnapping o ca go s olen. C ew membe s died in eigh a acks, se en o which occu ed in Nige ian wa e s. The numbe o pi acy a acks (ou bound he e i o ial seas) and a med obbe y as- saul s (inbound he e i o ial seas) is e y simila (84/88). The spa ial dis ibu ion and densi y analy- sis o he a acks show ha he ancho age si es o Abidjan, Lomé, Lagos and Poin Noi and he wa e s o he Nige ian s a e o Bayelsa a e he ho spo s o he GoG 8 ma i ime c iminali y. The illici ma i ime ac i i y in he GoG has he main objec i es o s eal he ca go om anke s, o sell i in he oil black ma ke , and o kidnap high alued c ew membe s o ansom. The geospa ial gap be ween Boko Ha am a acks and ma i ime a acks is e y big. This gap sugges s ha , o he ime being, he e is no connec ion be ween he wo phenomena. The use o a geog aphic in o ma ion sys- em o he GoG ma i ime c iminali y anal- ysis was e y use ul o disco e bo h em- po al and spa ial pa e ns and endencies o he a acks. Re e ences Allen, Fidelis (2012). “Oil and Secu i y in he Gul o Guinea: Re lec ions on he Ex e nal and Domes ic Linkages”, Jou nal o Sus ainable De elopmen , ol. 5, n. 4, Ap il 2012. B i ish Pe oleum (2014). "BP s a is ical e iew o wo ld ene gy". Cen e o In e na ional Ea h Science In- o ma ion Ne wo k - CIESIN - Columbia Uni e si y and Cen o In e nacional de Ag icul u a T opical - CIAT (2005). “G idded Popula ion o he Wo ld, Ve - sion 3 (GPW 3): Popula ion Densi y G id”. Palisades, NY, NASA Socioeco- nomic Da a and Applica ions Cen e (SEDAC). Fund o Peace (2014). "F agile S a es Index 2014". Halpe n, B., Walb idge, S. e al, (2008). "A Global Map o Human Impac on Ma- ine Ecosys ems ", Science, ol. 319, n. 5865, pp. 948-952. In e na ional Ma i ime O ganiza ion (2012- 2015). “IMO epo s on ac s o pi acy and a med obbe y agains ships”, nº 182 o nº 220. Oceans Beyon Pi acy (2014). “The s a e o ma i ime pi acy 2013”, [S.l.], Oceans Beyond Pi acy. O ice o Na al In elligence (2015). “Wo ldwide Th ea o Shipping (WTS) epo s”, Janua y o May 2015. Re enue Wa ch Ins i u e (2013). " The 2013 Resou ce Go e nance Index. A Measu e o T anspa ency and Ac- coun abili y in he Oil, Gas and Mining Sec o “. Saldanha Bay IDZ (2012). En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Fo The P oposed Oil & Gas O -Sho e Supply Base And Ma ine Repai Complex A The Saldanha Bay Idz - Annexu e 1. [S.l.], p. 38.