115
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
DOI: 10.15240/ ul/001/2018-2-008
In oduc ion
The dynamic de elopmen o o eign ade
is impo an o he s able economic posi ion
o each coun y. I can be conside ed as
a con i ma ion o he ac ual e i ciency o
he na ional economy and i s abili y o be
compe i i e in he global economic sys em. The
g ow h o his ade is pa icula ly essen ial o
Uk aine, aking in o accoun he c isis si ua ion
in he coun y. In his pape , we analyze main
endencies o expo ade o Uk aine wi h
Viseg ad coun ies (Czech Republic, Hunga y,
Poland and Slo ak Republic) and examine
whe he he e is a ela ionship be ween he
le el o GDP and he olume o expo ac i i ies
be ween hese coun ies.
I should be no ed ha a ious ag eemen s
we e concluded be ween Uk aine and each
coun y o he V4 g oup ega ding economic
and ade ela ions. These ag eemen s made
he business compe i i eness, no only o
Uk aine i sel , highe . E en he V4 coun ies
bene i om his coope a ion. The p incipal
sec o s o economy a e indus y, ag icul u e
and he a ea o scien i i c as well as echnical
coope a ion.
Fu he mo e, all V4 coun ies a e membe s
o he Eu opean Union a p esen . Only he
Slo ak Republic also belongs o he Eu o a ea
(19 membe s in 2017). All V4 coun ies ha e
ad an ages coming om being he EU membe s.
Abo e all, hey ha e i nancial bene i s, such
as using he i nances om majo S uc u al &
In es men Funds (each ocused on se e al key
p io i y a eas), G an s o Con ac s (Eu opean
Commission, 2017a). Mo eo e , Ho ák, P ýmek,
P okop and Mišák (2015) highligh he bene i s
o Czech households which a e subsidized
by he p og am G een P emium om EU.
This is a i nancial bene i o households and
i has a posi i e impac on en i onmen , oo.
In addi ion, Olinski, Szam owski and Lu y (2016)
analyze he impac o EU- unds on small and
medium-sized en e p ises (SME) in Poland. On
he con a y, Voj o ič (2016) poin s ou he use
o S uc u al Funds o SMEs in Slo akia.
Ne e heless, being pa o a la ge
economic o poli ical g oup does no always
mean a posi i e economic impac on a pa icula
coun y o egion. Zd ažil and Applo á (2016)
p esen in hei s udy he dispa i y o bene i s
when indi idual V4 egions en e he EU. The
i nal GDP indica o pe capi a e l ec ed he ini ial
nega i e esul s in he a eas o p oduc i i y
and employmen . Tha is he eason why he
Uk aine-EU Deep and Comp ehensi e F ee
T ade Ag eemen (DCFTA) egula e many
aspec s o business coope a ion be ween he
coun ies. SMEs in Uk aine e en ha e access
o he i nancial suppo o € 200 million om
EU g an s hanks o his ag eemen (Eu opean
Commission, 2017c).
The main pu pose o his pape is o
e alua e he de elopmen o Uk aine expo o
membe s a es o Viseg ad g oup depending
on he expo s o o he coun ies o V4 and
he le el o GDP pe capi a in each indi idual
coun y. The basis o his esea ch was he
end analysis o he da a ob ained om he
S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine, Eu os a
and Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade
and De elopmen (UNCTAD), which was
hen s a is ically e i i ed and e alua ed. The
UNCTAD da a we e e ie ed on July, 2016.
1. Theo e ical Re iew
The s a e and challenges o o eign ade a e
conside ed in a numbe o publica ions. Main
endencies and pe spec i es o expo and
impo ac i i ies o Uk aine a e ou lined, o
ins ance, in Deineko e al. (2015), Didko skaya
(2013), Kukha ska (2016), Lomeiko (2015),
Mud ak (2014), and Sy anenko and To opko
(2015). Some au ho s use speci i c me hods and
THE ANALYSIS OF EXPORT TRADE
BETWEEN UKRAINE AND VISEGRAD
COUNTRIES
Ľudmila Nagyo á, Monika Ho áko á, Se hiy Mo oz,
Elena Ho ská, Zuzana Poláko á
EM_2_2018.indd 115EM_2_2018.indd 115 22.6.2018 9:17:2422.6.2018 9:17:24
116 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
app oaches o analyze coun y’s in e na ional
ade. Bodna (2014) elabo a es econome ic
models which desc ibe he s a e o o eign
goods ade o Uk aine, in gene al, and wi h
CIS, Eu opean and Asian coun ies sepa a ely,
aking in o conside a ion hei seasonal and
end componen s. Also, he p esen s o ecas ed
indices o Uk aine’s ex e nal ade in he ame
o hese models.
Rane a e al. (2015) in es iga e Uk ainian
expo by means o g a i y equa ion o iden i y
impac o economic diplomacy and o he ac o s
on expo l ows. A posi i e ela ionship be ween
Uk ainian expo and he numbe o employees
o diploma ic missions and o egional ade
ag eemen s is iden i i ed. Shumska (2014)
esea ches he exchange a e elas ici y o
me chandise expo s and impo s o Uk aine.
She e alua es he sensi i i y olume o o eign
ade l ows o change a e in econome ic
models (one- ac o and mul i-linea eg ession
equa ions) wi h he usage o pa ial indices o
eal e ec i e exchange a e.
The e is he lack o publica ions ega ding
expo ac i i ies be ween Uk aine and V4
coun ies. Wi h espec o o eign ade o
Viseg ad coun ies, se e al publica ions could
be men ioned. Bielik e al. (2013) conside
changes in ag a ian ade o he Czech Republic
and Slo akia in 1994-2010, cha ac e izing
compa a i e ad an age o ag icul u al expo s.
The modi i ed Balassa’s RCA indexes and he
La ay index a e applied in his a icle. Łapińska
(2014) examines peculia i ies o in a-indus y
ade be ween Poland and i s EU ading
pa ne s. To measu e he in ensi y o his
ade, he G ubel-Lloyd index is employed. An
econome ic model is used o he analysis o
he ac o s de e mining ag icul u al and ood
ade o Poland wi h o he EU coun ies.
Misz al (2013) analyzes in e na ional ade
and business cycle synch oniza ion in Poland
and he Eu opean Union. The esea che
conside s he in ensi y and s uc u e o
in e na ional ade and hei impac on business
cycle, p esen ing a e iew o he li e a u e on
mac oeconomics and in e na ional i nance, as
well as econome ic models (such as he ec o
au o eg ession model).
Mul i- eg ession models (including in
combina ion wi h o he s a is ical me hods) a e
also widely used in o he economic s udies.
Fo ins ance, Aabo e al. (2016) apply mul iple
eg ession analysis o iden i y he impac o
mul ina ionali y on he alue- ele ance o
i ms’ eal op ions. Based on his app oach,
hey show ha he ela ionship be ween
s ock e u ns and changes in e u n ola ili y
is subs an ially connec ed wi h i m’s o eign
in ol emen . Aulo á and Hla sa (2013) s udy
he capi al s uc u e o ag icul u al businesses
and he e ec o selec ed de e minan s on his
s uc u e. The analysis o hese de e minan s is
ca ied ou by way o mul iple linea eg ession.
Ro ný (2016) examines he posi ion o young
a me s and app op ia e demog aphic and
economic changes in he ag icul u al sec o
o he Eu opean Union. Employing he
mul iple eg ession app oach, he i nds ou he
di e ences and ela ionships be ween he
g oups o a me s unde he age o 35 and
abo e he age o 55. Ub ežio á e al. (2011)
explo e he posi ion o ag i- ood companies and
mos expo ed ag i- ood commodi ies in SR in
he Eu opean compe i i e en i onmen .
Ba es and San e e (2015) analyze he
demand o municipal in as uc u e p ojec s
and ac o s which in l uence he capi al decision-
making p ocess a he local go e nmen le el.
The esea che s use he mul i- eg ession
me hod o ha e a de ailed unde s anding
o he capi al-in es men decision o local
communi ies. Bly h and Kaka (2006) c ea e
a mul iple linea eg ession model o o ecas
he p og am o wo ks o cons uc ion companies
and o p oduce S-cu es. Recei ed esul s
con i m he e ec i eness o he p oposed
model.
Bohne e al. (2016) explo e claims in l a ion
wi h ocus on au omobile liabili y insu ance.
The d i e s o claims in l a ion isk and i s impac
on ese ing a e de e mined on he g ound
o s epwise mul iple eg ession analysis.
Kubico á and Kádeko á (2012) analyze e enue
impac on he demand o Slo ak households o
ood p oduc s. Be ezan e al. (2013) examine
he in l uence o sus ainable ho el p ac ices on
he sa is ac ion and in en ion o e u n o ho el
gues s om di e en na ionali ies. Based on
mul iple eg ession and mul inomial logis ic
eg ession, i is con i med he exis ence
o a posi i e ela ionship o hese p ac ices
on gues s’ sa is ac ion le els and e u n
in en ions. Ci e Cos a (2013) iden i i es main
ac o s impac ing p ice o ma ion and ma ke
segmen a ion in seaside accommoda ions. The
esea che conside s angible cha ac e is ics
o each es ablishmen , which a e used as
EM_2_2018.indd 116EM_2_2018.indd 116 22.6.2018 9:17:2522.6.2018 9:17:25
117
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
explana o y a iables o p ice, on he basis o
a mul iple eg ession model.
Domingues e al. (2016) elabo a e he
In eg a ed Managemen Sys ems Ma u i y
Model, which gi es a possibili y o compa e
in eg a ed managemen sys ems conce ning
hei ela i e s age o e olu ion. The esea che s
in es iga e he s a is ical-based componen o
he model, paying a en ion o he ela ionships
be ween h ee independen a iables and mul i-
eg ession model and o he a iables. Dø ing
and Ma ín-Rubio (2013) s udy he impac o
eam managemen on eam-lea ning ac i i ies.
On he basis o mul i- eg ession analysis, hey
disco e ed ha he leade ship beha io o he
eam leade is impo an in e ms o acili a ion
o eam lea ning.
Applying mul iple linea eg ession and
bina y logis ic eg ession, Pollack and Adle
(2016) i nd ou ha p ojec managemen and
IT skills ha e a signi i can posi i e in l uence on
p o i abili y and o al sales o small o medium
en e p ises. Spillecke and B e el (2013) use
he mul i- eg ession app oach o de e mine
he impac o sales managemen con ols on
he en ep eneu ial o ien a ion o he sales
depa men (SEO). The esul s show ha SEO
is an impo an le e o inc ease pe o mance.
Picke nell e al. (2016) iden i y de e minan s o
expo ing ac i i ies o SME. Based on a bina y
logis ic mul iple eg ession app oach, hey
disco e ed ha SME expo ope a ions a e
subs an ially in l uenced by he indus y sec o ,
age and he cha ac e is ics o he SME owne -
manage and he i ms’ a ailable esou ces.
Sluisa and De Gio anni (2016) esea ch
he e ec o he iden i i ed key d i e s o
i ms (supply chain coo dina ion con ac s,
pe o mance, supply chain o ien a ion, and
supply chain in eg a ion) on hei likelihood o
adop ing a supply chain coo dina ion con ac .
Mul iple and mul inomial logis ic eg essions a e
applied o es ima e he ela ionships be ween
hese a iables. Se wa (2013) conside s he
speci i c ea u es o he ma ke in e ms o
lending o households. The esea che employs
he mul i- egime eg ession model ela ed o
di e en economic s a es o he c edi ma ke
(i.e. a no mal egime o a boom egime) o
iden i y he c edi ma ke al e na es be ween
egimes.
Zhao e al. (2016) conside he use mul i
eg ession dynamic models in he i nancial
sec o and ela ed business a eas, aimed a
he imp o emen o o ecas ing and decision
analysis. The esea ch esul s con i m ha
such goal is achie able, and hese models
a e l exible and e i cien , ha ing a a ie y o
p ac ical u ili y unc ions.
2. In e na ional Posi ion o Uk aine
and V4 G oup
E en hough Uk aine belongs o one o he
la ges coun ies si ua ed in Eu ope, i is no
he EU membe on he con a y o he coun ies
o V4 g oup. S ill, Uk aine made he ollowing
ag eemen s enabling coope a ion wi h he V4
coun ies:
 wi h he Czech Republic: T ea y on
F iendly Rela ions and Coope a ion
be ween Uk aine and he Czech Republic,
Ag eemen be ween he Go e nmen o
Uk aine and he Go e nmen o he Czech
Republic on Economic, Indus ial, Scien i i c
and Technical Coope a ion;
 wi h Hunga y: T ea y on Basics o Good
Neighbo ship and Coope a ion be ween
Uk aine and he Republic o Hunga y,
Ag eemen be ween he Go e nmen o
Uk aine and he Go e nmen o he Republic
o Hunga y on Economic Coope a ion;
 wi h Poland: T ea y be ween Uk aine
and he Republic o Poland on Good
Neighbo ship, F iendly Rela ions and
Coope a ion, Ag eemen be ween
he Go e nmen o Uk aine and he
Go e nmen o he Republic o Poland on
Economic Coope a ion;
 wi h he Slo ak Republic: T ea y on
Good Neighbo ship, F iendly Rela ions
and Coope a ion be ween Uk aine and
he Slo ak Republic, Ag eemen be ween
he Go e nmen o Uk aine and he
Go e nmen o he Slo ak Republic on
Economic, Indus ial and Scien i i c and
Technical Coope a ion.
The p esen V4 g oup has decla ed a ew
common a ge s since i s ounda ion in 1991,
on which hei coope a ion wi hin as well as
ou side he g oup is based. The a ge s a e
as ollows: de elopmen o democ acy and
s a e so e eign y, p o ec ion o human igh s,
wo king on a mode n ma ke economy, aking
pa in Eu opean economic, poli ical, secu i y
and legal sys ems. (Viseg adg oup, 1991).
All V4 coun ies ha e ound a ious ways o
coope a ion in social as well as business a eas
wi h Uk aine.
EM_2_2018.indd 117EM_2_2018.indd 117 22.6.2018 9:17:2522.6.2018 9:17:25
118 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
The openness o Uk aine o o eign ade
is depic ed by he da a o S a e S a is ics
Se ice o Uk aine. A d i ing o ce o Uk aine
and i s economy a e household expenses
(60%), whe eas he in es men s o m jus 20%.
Ve kho od and Pe enko (2014) s a e ha
a eason o such low domes ic incen i e can be
a ce ain amoun o skep icism ega ding c edi -
g an ing o human capi al unde i nancing,
which is he sou ce o inno a i e po en ial.
A dec ease in e enues caused by his can be
ega ded as a ba ie on he economic g ow h.
I is an unbalanced dis ibu ion o in es men
incen i es ha p e en Uk aine companies
om ha ing inno a i e po en ial and he e o e,
causing a decline in hei e enues.
Acco ding o he da a om he S a e
S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine (2017), he expo
sha e on GDP oscilla es be ween 45-48%,
whe eas he impo alues sligh ly exceed and
o m app oxima ely 48-52% o GDP. Fo nalska-
Sku czyńska (2015) s esses he suppo ing
ole o s a e when men ioning expo . E ec i e
o ms o suppo ing expo ing companies om
go e nmen a e sui able p omo ion p og ams
wi h an emphasis on i ms’ p oduc i i y and
expo assis ance. The Eu opean Commission
(2017b) has shown a da abase abou
de elopmen o in e na ional ade be ween
EU and Uk aine. Among he main expo
ade l ows om Uk aine a e as ollows: base
me als and a icles he eo ; ege able p oduc s;
mine al p oduc s; machine y and appliances;
animal o ege able a s and oils; oods u s;
be e ages; obacco; p oduc s o he chemical o
allied indus ies. On he con a y, he ollowing
p oduc s a e mos ly impo ed: mine al p oduc s;
machine y and appliances; p oduc s o
he chemical o allied indus ies; plas ics, ubbe
and a icles he eo . The highes sha e in expo
(34%) as well as in impo (40%) ep esen s he
impo ance o a e i o ial link be ween Uk aine
and EU as a whole. The second mos impo an
link o Uk aine conce ning in e na ional
ade is he a ea o Russian Fede a ion.
(BusinessIn o.cz, 2016) Doing business wi hin
EU has been made possible since 1s June
2016 by DCFTA, which is a pa o Associa ion
Ag eemen (AA). The Eu os a indica o s (2017)
highligh a small sha e o impo (0.4%) as well
as he expo o Uk aine o Eu ozone coun ies
(whe e only Slo akia is he membe om he V4).
Fig. 1: Main ade pa ne s o V4 coun ies
Sou ce: Wi old Gadomski (2016-10-28). The Viseg ad G oup coun ies a e close poli ically han economically. Re ie-
ed om h p://www. i nancialobse e .eu/poland/ he- iseg ad-g oup-coun ies-a e-close -poli ically- han-economically/.
EM_2_2018.indd 118EM_2_2018.indd 118 22.6.2018 9:17:2522.6.2018 9:17:25
119
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
Al hough i seems o be an insigni i can sha e
om Eu ozone´s pe spec i e, o example,
Ge many ep esen s a e y impo an business
pa ne o Uk aine. The V4 coun ies a e o he
impo an Eu opean pa ne s, and hese a e in
he ollowing o de – Poland, Hunga y, Czech
Republic and Slo akia. (Eu opean Commission,
2017c; BusinessIn o.cz, 2016)
Gadomski (2016) analyzed main expo
and impo pa ne s o Viseg ad coun ies o
he yea 2015 (see Fig. 1). All he coun ies
a e p ima ily dependen on Ge man expo s
and impo s. Mo eo e , he e is he ac o
dependency o he coun ies among each
o he . Fo hese coun ies, doing business
wi h Uk aine o ms less han 3% ou o hei
o al o eign ade.
3. Da a and Me hodology
The inpu da a o he analysis we e explici ly
ob ained om he S a e S a is ics Se ice o
Uk aine. These we e om he yea s 2002-2013
inclusi e. Among he main es ing a iables, he
ollowing ones we e chosen:
 he expo om Uk aine, he Czech
Republic, Hunga y, Poland and Slo akia
among each o he ;
 he GDP pe capi a in Uk aine, he Czech
Republic, Hunga y, Poland and Slo akia.
Nomina ed a iables we e selec ed
because bo h GDP and expo a e closely
ela ed and he au ho s we e in e es ed in he
ex en o which hese a iables a ec expo o
V4 coun ies. The da a ob ained om he ime
line we e hen used o he pu pose o a mo e
de ailed end analysis using he s a is ical
so wa e G e l.
To unde s and he mechanism and causes
o he de elopmen ends in examined
economic, social o biological p ocesses
assumes he need o handle some p ocedu es
ha allow o desc ibe he de elopmen
cha ac e is ics o some indica o s and hus o
unde s and he mechanisms de e mining his
de elopmen .
The simples concep o modeling eal
alues ime se ies y is one-dimensional model
in he shape o he one o elemen a y unc ions:

Y 
, (1)
whe e Y´ is expec ed alue o he indica o a
ime . And such ha he di e ence as ollows:
y – Y ,
= ε , (2)
called i egula componen s  andom e o s),
we e al oge he minimal and included he
in l uence o o he ac o s besides ime.
The end componen e l ec s long- e m
changes in he a e age beha io o he ime
se ies e.g. long- e m g ow h and long- e m
decline). I a ises om he ac ion o o ces ha
sys ema ically ac in he same di ec ion.
One o he mos impo an asks o he ime
se ies analysis is o cap u e in an app op ia e
o m he o e all gene al end in he e olu ion o
obse ed indica o (Ob ulo ič, 2010).
In end analysis o he pe iod o 2002
o 2013, we used he log-log linea model
displayed below in i s gene al o m:
logs = b0 + b1logx1 + b2logx2 +
+ b3logx3 + b4logx4 + b5logx5 +
+ b6logx6 + b7logx7 + b8logx8.
(3)
Using his model, we in es iga ed he
amoun o expo om Uk aine o he V4
coun ies ( he dependen a iable) while
changing he independen a iables ( olume o
expo o V4 and GDP pe capi a in Uk aine and
V4 coun ies).
P ocessing had been pe o med wi h
GRETL so wa e applica ion. Ano he
me hod we used is mul i- ac o ial analysis o
a iance, based on which we in es iga ed
he signi i cance o di e ences in expo o
ag icul u al commodi y sec ions (li e animals
and animal p oduc s, animal and ege able a s
and oils and plan p oduc s) be ween he V4
coun ies and olumes o expo be ween he
sec ions. So wa e applica ion S a g aphics had
been used o he p ocessing.
Based on he alues measu ed h ough
mul i- ac o analysis o a iance we can
examine whe he he ac o a e ages di e
a he indi idual le els, which is possible o
o mula e in o a symbolic insc ip ion as a null
hypo hesis (H0) in he o m:
H0 :
m

 L
21 (4)
In null hypo hesis we s a e ha he a e age
alues o indi idual ac o le els do no
signi i can ly di e . An al e na i e hypo hesis
con adic s he null hypo hesis, i.e. a leas
one median alue
i

is signi i can ly di e en
om he o he s. Tes c i e ion is based on
Λ
EM_2_2018.indd 119EM_2_2018.indd 119 22.6.2018 9:17:2522.6.2018 9:17:25

120 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
he decomposi ion o o al a iabili y o he
a iabili y be ween he classes and wi hin he
classes.
In case we ejec he null hypo hesis and
accep he al e na i e one, we also ha e o
i nd ou which ac o le els a e s a is ically
signi i can ly di e en , and which we conside
o be nea ly iden ical. Analysis o a iance is
hen supplemen ed by u he e alua ion, called
con as analysis. In his a icle, we used he leas
signi i can di e ence es - LSD es . Ob ulo ič
(2010) de i ned ha by below ela ionship:
11
..
2
ijnm
ij
yy s




 

 
 
(5)
4. Resul s
In his pa o he p ojec we deal wi h he
analysis o he expo o p oduc s om Uk aine
o he V4 coun ies (Czech Republic, Hunga y,
Poland, and Slo ak Republic). In asce aining
he dependence o expo o goods om
Uk aine we used a log-log linea mul iple model
whe e he dependen a iable is always expo
o he indi idual V4 coun y and independen
a iables we e he amoun s o expo o he
o he V4 coun ies (in housands USD) and
hei GDP pe capi a (in housands USD).
4.1 Expo o Goods om Uk aine
o he Czech Republic
In he case o expo om Uk aine o he Czech
Republic is he pa icula shape o he model as
ollows: logs = -0.71logx1 + 1.6logx2 - 3.77logx5
(P- alue: 0.034, 0.023, 0.018). De elopmen
o he expo om Uk aine o Czech Republic
o he pe iod 2002-2013 is p esen ed in Fig. 2.
This i gu e shows a g owing end o expo s
om Uk aine o he Czech Republic al eady in
2002. A sha p decline in expo s is displayed
o he yea 2009. This decline e l ec s he
impac o he economic c isis and a decline in
GDP in he Czech Republic. The expo s o he
Czech Republic ha e con inued wi h a sligh ly
inc easing end since 2010. I s s a is ical
analysis is p esen ed in Tab. 1.
Fig. 2: De elopmen o expo om Uk aine o he Czech Republic
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
EM_2_2018.indd 120EM_2_2018.indd 120 22.6.2018 9:17:2622.6.2018 9:17:26
121
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
This model was s a is ically signi i can
(R2 = 0.997). The s a is ical signi i cance o he
p- alue ( able sign **) was eco ded o he
ollowing h ee independen a iables: expo
o Hunga y; expo o Poland and GDP Czech
Republic pe capi a. The esul da a show
an inc ease in expo o he Czech Republic
wi h a posi i e line wi h expo o Poland. The
inc ease o 1% o expo o Poland caused
an inc ease o 1.61%. The e was a nega i e
connec ion wi h expo o Hunga y whe e
an inc ease o 1% expo o Hunga y mean
a dec ease o expo o he Czech Republic
o 0.71%. Las signi i can esul was indica ed
as dec ease o 3.77% in expo o he Czech
Republic wi h an inc ease o 1% o GDP pe
capi a in he Czech Republic.
4.2 Expo o Goods om Uk aine o
Hunga y
De elopmen o he expo om Uk aine o
Hunga y o he pe iod 2002-2013 is shown
in Fig. 3. This g aph shows a g owing end o
expo s o Hunga y o e he epo ing pe iod.
A sligh dec ease was eco ded in 2005 and
a signi i can dec ease in 2009 as in he case
o expo s o he Czech Republic. In he case o
expo om Uk aine o Hunga y, he pa icula
model o m is as ollows:
logs = –1.15logx1 + 2.11logx2 – 4.49logx5
(S a is ically signi i can o h ee independen
a iables: x1 = expo o he Czech Republic,
x2 = expo o Poland and x5 = GDP/capi a in
Czech Republic, P- alue: 0.034, 0.01, 0.048).
The esul s show ha 1% inc ease in expo
o he Czech Republic causes a dec ease in
expo o Hunga y by an a e age o 1.15%. On
he con a y, 1% inc ease in expo o Poland
shows an a e age inc ease o expo o Hunga y
by 2.11%. The inc ease in GDP pe capi a in
he Czech Republic by 1% causes a dec ease
in expo o Hunga y by an a e age o 4.49%.
The alues o wo independen a iables:
expo o Poland and GDP Czech Republic
Model 1: OLS, using obse a ions 2002-2013 (T=12)
Dependen a iable: expo Czech Republic
coe i cien s d. a io - a io p- alue
cons 0.858 1.514 0.567 0.610
expo Hunga y –0.715 0.193 –3.700 0.034 **
expo Poland 1.614 0.375 4.307 0.023 **
expo Slo akia –0.256 0.569 –0.449 0.684
GDP Uk aine pe cap. –0.694 0.341 –2.033 0.135
GDP Czech Republic pe cap. –3.769 0.802 –4.698 0.018 **
GDP Hunga y pe cap. 2.312 0.976 2.370 0.099 *
GDP Poland pe cap. 3.343 1.302 2.568 0.083 *
GDP Slo akia pe cap. –0.379 1.179 –0.321 0.769
Mean dependen a 5.637 S.D. dependen a 0.227
Sum squa ed esid 0.0018 S.E. o eg ession 0.025
R-squa ed 0.9968 Adjus ed R–squa ed 0.988
F(8, 3) 116.980 P– alue (F) 0.0012
Log-likelihood 35.739 Akaike c i e ion –53.478
Schwa z c i e ion –49.114 Hannan–Quinn –55.094
ho –0.426 Du bin–Wa son 2.838
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
Tab. 1: S a is ical analysis o expo de elopmen om Uk aine o he Czech Republic
EM_2_2018.indd 121EM_2_2018.indd 121 22.6.2018 9:17:2622.6.2018 9:17:26
122 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
pe capi a a e copying he posi i e/nega i e
de elopmen o p e ious esul s o expo s o
he Czech Republic. This model was s a is ically
signi i can (R2 = 0.988). The s a is ical analysis o
de elopmen o expo o Hunga y is p esen ed
in Tab. 2.
4.3 Expo o Goods om Uk aine
o Poland
De elopmen o he expo om Uk aine o
Poland o he pe iod 2002-2013 is p esen ed
in he ollowing Fig. 4. The economic c isis o
2009 again in e up ed a g owing end o expo s
o Poland. A e y simila g aph was illus a ed in
Fig. 2 o expo s o he Czech Republic. When
analyzing expo om Uk aine o Poland, he
pa icula shape o he model is as ollows:
logs = 0.53logx1 + 0.43logx2 + 2.03logx5 -
- 1.5logx6 - 2.09logx7 (S a is ically signi i can o
i e independen a iables, whe e x1 = expo
o he Czech Republic, x2 = expo o Hunga y,
x5 = GDP/capi a in he Czech Republic,
x6 = GDP/capi a in Hunga y, x7 = GDP/capi a
in Poland, P- alue: 0.023, 0.01, 0.049, 0.031,
0.037).
The esul s show ha 1% inc ease in expo
o he Czech Republic p oduces an inc ease in
expo o Poland by an a e age o 0.53%. 1%
inc ease in expo o Hunga y would inc ease
on a e age he expo o Poland by 0.43%.
Inc ease in GDP/capi a in he Czech Republic
by 1% causes an inc ease in expo o Poland
on a e age by 2.03% while inc ease in GDP/
capi a in Hunga y would cause a educ ion
in expo o Poland by an a e age o 1.5%.
An inc ease in GDP/capi a in Poland would cause
a educ ion in expo o Poland by an a e age
o 2.09%. This model is s a is ically signi i can
(R2 = 0.999). S a is ical analysis o de elopmen
o expo o Poland could be seen in Tab. 3.
4.4 Expo o Goods om Uk aine
o he Slo ak Republic
De elopmen o he expo om Uk aine o
he Slo ak Republic o he pe iod 2002-2013
is p esen ed in Fig. 5. The de elopmen end
co esponds o p e ious de elopmen s in
Fig. 2 (Expo o he Czech Republic) and Fig. 4
(Expo o Poland). An eno mous decline in
expo s o he Slo ak Republic was displayed
Fig. 3: De elopmen o expo om Uk aine o Hunga y
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
EM_2_2018.indd 122EM_2_2018.indd 122 22.6.2018 9:17:2622.6.2018 9:17:26
123
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
o he 2009.The pa icula shape o he model in
he analysis o expo om Uk aine o Slo akia
is as ollows: logs = -1.94logx8 (S a is ically
signi i can o one independen a iable only,
whe e x8 = GDP/capi a in Slo akia, P- alue:
0.014).
The esul s indica e an inc ease in GDP pe
capi a in Slo akia would cause a dec ease in
expo o Slo akia by an a e age o 1.94%. The
model is s a is ically signi i can (R2 = 0.994).
S a is ical analysis o de elopmen o expo o
Slo akia is gi en in Tab. 4.
Comp ehensi e look a he expo shows
he ollowing esul s. Inc ease in expo o
p oduc s o he Czech Republic is posi i ely ied
o he inc ease in expo o Poland, nega i ely
ied wi h an inc ease o GDP pe capi a in
he Czech Republic and he inc eased expo
o Hunga y. Inc ease in expo o goods o
Hunga y is posi i ely linked wi h an inc ease in
expo o Poland, nega i ely wi h an inc ease in
expo o he Czech Republic and wi h inc ease
in GDP pe capi a in he Czech Republic.
Inc eased expo o Poland is posi i ely
linked wi h an inc ease in expo o he Czech
Republic, he inc ease in expo o Hunga y,
wi h an inc ease in GDP pe capi a in he Czech
Republic and nega i ely ied wi h an inc ease
in GDP pe capi a in Hunga y and Poland.
G ow h o expo o Slo akia is nega i ely
linked only wi h an inc ease in GDP pe capi a
in Slo akia. In ou opinion, he exis ence o
a nega i e ela ionship be ween he olume
o Uk ainian expo and GDP pe capi a
in Viseg ad coun ies can be explained ha ,
in case o he imp o emen o economic
si ua ion in he V4 coun ies and he inc ease
o income o hei popula ion, a la ge numbe
o cus ome s change hei p e e ences and buy
mo e expensi e goods manu ac u ed ou side
o Uk aine. Gene aliza ion o he esul s o he
eg ession analysis is p esen ed in Tab. 5.
Model 2: OLS, using obse a ions 2002-2013 (T=12)
Dependen a iable: expo Hunga y
coe i cien s d. a io - a io p- alue
cons 1.838 1.718 1.070 0.363
expo Czech Republic -1.148 0.310 -3.700 0.034 **
expo Poland 2.112 0.366 5.766 0.010 **
expo Slo akia -0.552 0.673 -0.820 0.473
GDP Uk aine pe cap. -0.673 0.542 -1.241 0.303
GDP Czech Republic pe cap. -4.490 1.386 -3.239 0.048 **
GDP Hunga y pe cap. 3.067 1.120 2.738 0.071 *
GDP Poland pe cap. 4.147 1.724 2.406 0.095 *
GDP Slo akia pe cap. -0.890 1.431 -0.622 0.578
Mean dependen a 5.991 S.D. dependen a 0.151
Sum squa ed esid 0.003 S.E. o eg ession 0.031
R-squa ed 0.988 Adjus ed R-squa ed 0.958
F(8, 3) 32.021 P- alue (F) 0.008
Log-likelihood 32.896 Akaike c i e ion -47.793
Schwa z c i e ion -43.429 Hannan-Quinn -49.409
ho -0.254 Du bin-Wa son 2.495
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
Tab. 2: S a is ical analysis o expo de elopmen om Uk aine o Hunga y
EM_2_2018.indd 123EM_2_2018.indd 123 22.6.2018 9:17:2622.6.2018 9:17:26
130 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
Lomeiko, Y. A. (2015). Cus oms Regula ion
and Con ol in he Con ex o Ex e nal Economic
Rela ions De elopmen in Uk aine. Ac ual
P oblems o Economics, 166(4), 75-93.
Misz al, P. (2013). In e na ional T ade
and Business Cycle Synch oniza ion in
Poland, he Eu opean Union and he Eu o
Zone. Con empo a y Economics, 7(3), 65-78.
h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.90.
Mud ak, R. P. (2014). The Expo o
Uk ainian Food P oduc s: S a us, T ends,
Causes. Economy o Uk aine, 5, 70-79.
Ob ulo ič, P. (2010). Bioš a is ika (4 h ed.).
Ni a: Slo enská poľnohospodá ska uni e zi a.
Picke nell, D., Jones, P., Thompson,
P., & Packham, G. (2016). De e minan s o
SME Expo ing: Insigh s and Implica ions.
In e na ional Jou nal o En ep eneu ship
and Inno a ion, 17(1), 31-42. h ps://dx.doi.
o g/10.5367/ijei.2016.0208.
Pollack, J., & Adle , D. (2016). Skills
ha Imp o e P o i abili y: The Rela ionship
be ween P ojec Managemen , IT skills, and
Small o Medium En e p ise P o i abili y.
In e na ional Jou nal o P ojec Managemen ,
34(5), 831-838. h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.1016/j.
ijp oman.2016.03.004.
Rane a, L., Kunychka, M., & G ess, M.
(2015). Analysis o Uk ainian Expo s in he
Con ex o Comme cial Diplomacy: G a i y
Model. Ac ual P oblems o Economics, 173(11),
43-55.
Ro ný, P. (2016). The Analysis o Fa m
Popula ion wi h espec o Young Fa me s
in he Eu opean Union. P ocedia – Social
and Beha io al Sciences, 220, 391-398.
h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.1016/j.sbsp o.2016.05.513.
Olinski, M., Szam owski, P., & Lu y, L.
(2016). The Impac o EU Funds on he
De elopmen o a Business Model o Small
and Medium-Sized En e p ises. Jou nal o
Compe i i eness, 8(3), 68-89. h ps://dx.doi.
o g/10.7441/joc.2016.03.05.
Se wa, D. (2013). Iden i ying Mul iple
Regimes in he Model o C edi o Households.
In e na ional Re iew o Economics and Finance,
27, 198-208. h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.1016/j.
i e .2012.10.011.
Shumska, S. S. (2014). Sho - e m
Exchange Ra e Elas ici y E alua ion Model o
Uk aine’s Me chandise Expo s and Impo s.
Economic Annals-XXI, 5-6, 101-105.
Sluisa, S., & De Gio anni, P. (2016). The
Selec ion o Con ac s in Supply Chains: An
Empi ical Analysis. Jou nal o Ope a ions
Managemen , 41, 1-11. h ps://dx.doi.
o g/10.1016/j.jom.2015.10.002.
Spillecke, S. B., & B e el, M. (2013). The
Impac o Sales Managemen Con ols on
he En ep eneu ial O ien a ion o he Sales
Depa men . Eu opean Managemen Jou nal,
31(4), 410-422. h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.1016/j.
emj.2012.07.002.
S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine. (2017).
S a is ical in o ma ion: G oss domes ic p oduc
by i nal use ca ego ies. Re ie ed Feb ua y 8,
2017, om h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/.
Sy anenko, G. P., & To opko , V. M.
(2015). Uk ainian Business De elopmen in he
Con ex o Eu oin eg a ion. Ac ual P oblems o
Economics, 173(11), 64-70.
Ub ežio á, I., Lenčéšo á, L., & Sedliako á,
I. (2011). Posi ion o ag i- ood companies and
mos expo ed ag i- ood commodi ies in SR
in he Eu opean compe i i e en i onmen . In
Ak uálne endy manažmen u konku enčnom
p os edí: Topoľčianky 21. 22. sep emb a
2011 : zbo ník z medziná odnej kon e encie
(pp. 79-88). Ni a: SUA. Re ie ed om h p://
www.slpk.sk/eldo/2012/zbo niky/020-12/
ak ualne- endy.pd .
Ve kho od, I., & Pe enko, V. (2014).
Analysis o Dependence in Uk ainian
En e p ises’ Economic Indica o s om Measu e
o Thei Inno a ion Ac i ism. Economics
and Sociology, 7(3), 76-89. h ps://dx.doi.
o g/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-3/6.
Viseg ad G oup. (1991). Viseg ad
Decla a ion. Re ie ed Feb ua y 10, 2017, om
h p://www. iseg adg oup.eu/documen s/ iseg ad-
decla a ions/ iseg ad-decla a ion-110412-2.
Voj o ič, S. (2016). The Impac o The
S uc u al Funds on Compe i i eness o Small
and Medium-Sized En e p ises. Jou nal o
Compe i i eness, 8(4), 30-45. h ps://dx.doi.
o g/10.7441/joc.2016.04.02.
Zd ažil, P., & Applo á, P. (2016). G ow h
Dispa i ies among Regions o he Viseg ad
G oup Coun ies: An E idence o Thei Ex en
and Na u e. E&M Ekonomie a Managemen ,
19(2), 37-54. h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.15240/
ul/001/2016-2-003.
Zhao, Z. Y., Xie, M., & Wes , M. (2016).
Dynamic Dependence Ne wo ks: Financial
Time Se ies Fo ecas ing and Po olio
Decisions. Applied S ochas ic Models in
Business and Indus y, 32(3), 311-332. h ps://
dx.doi.o g/10.1002/asmb.2165.
EM_2_2018.indd 130EM_2_2018.indd 130 22.6.2018 9:17:2822.6.2018 9:17:28

131
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
p o . Ing. Ľudmila Nagyo á, Ph.D.
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o Ma ke ing and T ade
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
Ing. Monika Ho áko á, Ph.D.
Tomas Ba a Uni e si y in Zlín
Facul y o Managemen and Economics
Depa men o Economics
Czech Republic
[email p o ec ed]
doc. Ing. Se hiy Mo oz, Ph.D.
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o Ma ke ing and T ade
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
p o . D . Ing. Elena Ho ská
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o Ma ke ing and T ade
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
doc. Ing. Zuzana Poláko á, Ph.D.
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o S a is ics
and Ope a ions Resea ch
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
EM_2_2018.indd 131EM_2_2018.indd 131 22.6.2018 9:17:2822.6.2018 9:17:28
132 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
Abs ac
THE ANALYSIS OF EXPORT TRADE BETWEEN UKRAINE AND VISEGRAD
COUNTRIES
Ľudmila Nagyo á, Monika Ho áko á, Se hiy Mo oz, Elena Ho ská,
Zuzana Poláko á
The dynamic de elopmen o o eign ade is impo an o he s able economic posi ion. I can be
conside ed as a con i ma ion o he ac ual e i ciency o he na ional economy and i s abili y o be
compe i i e in he global economics. In his pape , we analyze main endencies o expo ade o
Uk aine wi h Viseg ad coun ies and examine whe he he e is a ela ionship be ween he le el o
GDP and he olume o expo ac i i ies be ween hese coun ies.
I should be no ed ha a ious ag eemen s we e concluded be ween Uk aine and each coun y
o he V4 g oup ega ding economic and ade ela ions.
The main aim o his pape is o e alua e de elopmen o expo o goods be ween Uk aine
and Viseg ad coun ies be ween yea s 2002-2013. The da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine,
Eu os a and Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade and De elopmen (UNCTAD) we e used.
The de elopmen o expo om Uk aine o V4 coun ies is in es iga ed using he so wa e
GRETL and log-log linea model.
I is disco e ed ha Uk aine’s expo ope a ions a e impac ed by expo o o he ade pa ne s
and GDP pe capi a o he coun y. The s onges posi i e link o Uk aine expo om V4 g oup is
ep esen ed by Poland. I is iden i i ed ha , when he GDP pe capi a o he conce ned coun y goes
up, he expo o ha coun y declines. I is also e ealed ha he e is a subs an ial di e ence wi h
espec o expo o ag icul u al commodi ies om Uk aine o he abo e-men ioned coun ies. To
a signi i can ex en , Uk aine’s expo is o ien ed owa ds plan p oduc s.
Uk aine should elabo a e a well-de i ned ade s a egy and ex end i s cu en expo ac i i ies
wi h V4 coun ies. I should be mo e deeply in eg a ed in o he EU’s ma ke o using mo e e i cien ly
possibili ies, which exis in he ame o he signed Uk aine-Eu opean Union Associa ion Ag eemen .
Key Wo ds: Expo o goods, ade de elopmen , Uk aine, Viseg ad coun ies.
JEL Classi i ca ion: F1.
DOI: 10.15240/ ul/001/2018-2-008
EM_2_2018.indd 132EM_2_2018.indd 132 22.6.2018 9:17:2822.6.2018 9:17:28