The analysis of export trade between Ukraine and Visegrad countries
Abstract
The dynamic development of foreign trade is important for the stable economic position. It can be considered as a confirmation of the actual efficiency of the national economy and its ability to be competitive in the global economics. In this paper, we analyze main tendencies of export trade of Ukraine with Visegrad countries and examine whether there is a relationship between the level of GDP and the volume of export activities between these countries. It should be noted that various agreements were concluded between Ukraine and each country of the V4 group regarding economic and trade relations. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate development of export of goods between Ukraine and Visegrad countries between years 2002-2013. The data of State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Eurostat and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) were used. The development of export from Ukraine to V4 countries is investigated using the software GRETL and log-log linear model. It is discovered that Ukraine’s export operations are impacted by export to other trade partners and GDP per capita of the country. The strongest positive link to Ukraine export from V4 group is represented by Poland. It is identified that, when the GDP per capita of the concerned country goes up, the export to that country declines. It is also revealed that there is a substantial difference with respect to export of agricultural commodities from Ukraine to the above-mentioned countries. To a significant extent, Ukraine’s export is oriented towards plant products. Ukraine should elaborate a well-defined trade strategy and extend its current export activities with V4 countries. It should be more deeply integrated into the EU’s market for using more efficiently possibilities, which exist in the frame of the signed Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement.
Full text
115
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
DOI: 10.15240/ ul/001/2018-2-008
In oduc ion
The dynamic de elopmen o o eign ade
is impo an o he s able economic posi ion
o each coun y. I can be conside ed as
a con i ma ion o he ac ual e i ciency o
he na ional economy and i s abili y o be
compe i i e in he global economic sys em. The
g ow h o his ade is pa icula ly essen ial o
Uk aine, aking in o accoun he c isis si ua ion
in he coun y. In his pape , we analyze main
endencies o expo ade o Uk aine wi h
Viseg ad coun ies (Czech Republic, Hunga y,
Poland and Slo ak Republic) and examine
whe he he e is a ela ionship be ween he
le el o GDP and he olume o expo ac i i ies
be ween hese coun ies.
I should be no ed ha a ious ag eemen s
we e concluded be ween Uk aine and each
coun y o he V4 g oup ega ding economic
and ade ela ions. These ag eemen s made
he business compe i i eness, no only o
Uk aine i sel , highe . E en he V4 coun ies
bene i om his coope a ion. The p incipal
sec o s o economy a e indus y, ag icul u e
and he a ea o scien i i c as well as echnical
coope a ion.
Fu he mo e, all V4 coun ies a e membe s
o he Eu opean Union a p esen . Only he
Slo ak Republic also belongs o he Eu o a ea
(19 membe s in 2017). All V4 coun ies ha e
ad an ages coming om being he EU membe s.
Abo e all, hey ha e i nancial bene i s, such
as using he i nances om majo S uc u al &
In es men Funds (each ocused on se e al key
p io i y a eas), G an s o Con ac s (Eu opean
Commission, 2017a). Mo eo e , Ho ák, P ýmek,
P okop and Mišák (2015) highligh he bene i s
o Czech households which a e subsidized
by he p og am G een P emium om EU.
This is a i nancial bene i o households and
i has a posi i e impac on en i onmen , oo.
In addi ion, Olinski, Szam owski and Lu y (2016)
analyze he impac o EU- unds on small and
medium-sized en e p ises (SME) in Poland. On
he con a y, Voj o ič (2016) poin s ou he use
o S uc u al Funds o SMEs in Slo akia.
Ne e heless, being pa o a la ge
economic o poli ical g oup does no always
mean a posi i e economic impac on a pa icula
coun y o egion. Zd ažil and Applo á (2016)
p esen in hei s udy he dispa i y o bene i s
when indi idual V4 egions en e he EU. The
i nal GDP indica o pe capi a e l ec ed he ini ial
nega i e esul s in he a eas o p oduc i i y
and employmen . Tha is he eason why he
Uk aine-EU Deep and Comp ehensi e F ee
T ade Ag eemen (DCFTA) egula e many
aspec s o business coope a ion be ween he
coun ies. SMEs in Uk aine e en ha e access
o he i nancial suppo o € 200 million om
EU g an s hanks o his ag eemen (Eu opean
Commission, 2017c).
The main pu pose o his pape is o
e alua e he de elopmen o Uk aine expo o
membe s a es o Viseg ad g oup depending
on he expo s o o he coun ies o V4 and
he le el o GDP pe capi a in each indi idual
coun y. The basis o his esea ch was he
end analysis o he da a ob ained om he
S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine, Eu os a
and Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade
and De elopmen (UNCTAD), which was
hen s a is ically e i i ed and e alua ed. The
UNCTAD da a we e e ie ed on July, 2016.
1. Theo e ical Re iew
The s a e and challenges o o eign ade a e
conside ed in a numbe o publica ions. Main
endencies and pe spec i es o expo and
impo ac i i ies o Uk aine a e ou lined, o
ins ance, in Deineko e al. (2015), Didko skaya
(2013), Kukha ska (2016), Lomeiko (2015),
Mud ak (2014), and Sy anenko and To opko
(2015). Some au ho s use speci i c me hods and
THE ANALYSIS OF EXPORT TRADE
BETWEEN UKRAINE AND VISEGRAD
COUNTRIES
Ľudmila Nagyo á, Monika Ho áko á, Se hiy Mo oz,
Elena Ho ská, Zuzana Poláko á
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116 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
app oaches o analyze coun y’s in e na ional
ade. Bodna (2014) elabo a es econome ic
models which desc ibe he s a e o o eign
goods ade o Uk aine, in gene al, and wi h
CIS, Eu opean and Asian coun ies sepa a ely,
aking in o conside a ion hei seasonal and
end componen s. Also, he p esen s o ecas ed
indices o Uk aine’s ex e nal ade in he ame
o hese models.
Rane a e al. (2015) in es iga e Uk ainian
expo by means o g a i y equa ion o iden i y
impac o economic diplomacy and o he ac o s
on expo l ows. A posi i e ela ionship be ween
Uk ainian expo and he numbe o employees
o diploma ic missions and o egional ade
ag eemen s is iden i i ed. Shumska (2014)
esea ches he exchange a e elas ici y o
me chandise expo s and impo s o Uk aine.
She e alua es he sensi i i y olume o o eign
ade l ows o change a e in econome ic
models (one- ac o and mul i-linea eg ession
equa ions) wi h he usage o pa ial indices o
eal e ec i e exchange a e.
The e is he lack o publica ions ega ding
expo ac i i ies be ween Uk aine and V4
coun ies. Wi h espec o o eign ade o
Viseg ad coun ies, se e al publica ions could
be men ioned. Bielik e al. (2013) conside
changes in ag a ian ade o he Czech Republic
and Slo akia in 1994-2010, cha ac e izing
compa a i e ad an age o ag icul u al expo s.
The modi i ed Balassa’s RCA indexes and he
La ay index a e applied in his a icle. Łapińska
(2014) examines peculia i ies o in a-indus y
ade be ween Poland and i s EU ading
pa ne s. To measu e he in ensi y o his
ade, he G ubel-Lloyd index is employed. An
econome ic model is used o he analysis o
he ac o s de e mining ag icul u al and ood
ade o Poland wi h o he EU coun ies.
Misz al (2013) analyzes in e na ional ade
and business cycle synch oniza ion in Poland
and he Eu opean Union. The esea che
conside s he in ensi y and s uc u e o
in e na ional ade and hei impac on business
cycle, p esen ing a e iew o he li e a u e on
mac oeconomics and in e na ional i nance, as
well as econome ic models (such as he ec o
au o eg ession model).
Mul i- eg ession models (including in
combina ion wi h o he s a is ical me hods) a e
also widely used in o he economic s udies.
Fo ins ance, Aabo e al. (2016) apply mul iple
eg ession analysis o iden i y he impac o
mul ina ionali y on he alue- ele ance o
i ms’ eal op ions. Based on his app oach,
hey show ha he ela ionship be ween
s ock e u ns and changes in e u n ola ili y
is subs an ially connec ed wi h i m’s o eign
in ol emen . Aulo á and Hla sa (2013) s udy
he capi al s uc u e o ag icul u al businesses
and he e ec o selec ed de e minan s on his
s uc u e. The analysis o hese de e minan s is
ca ied ou by way o mul iple linea eg ession.
Ro ný (2016) examines he posi ion o young
a me s and app op ia e demog aphic and
economic changes in he ag icul u al sec o
o he Eu opean Union. Employing he
mul iple eg ession app oach, he i nds ou he
di e ences and ela ionships be ween he
g oups o a me s unde he age o 35 and
abo e he age o 55. Ub ežio á e al. (2011)
explo e he posi ion o ag i- ood companies and
mos expo ed ag i- ood commodi ies in SR in
he Eu opean compe i i e en i onmen .
Ba es and San e e (2015) analyze he
demand o municipal in as uc u e p ojec s
and ac o s which in l uence he capi al decision-
making p ocess a he local go e nmen le el.
The esea che s use he mul i- eg ession
me hod o ha e a de ailed unde s anding
o he capi al-in es men decision o local
communi ies. Bly h and Kaka (2006) c ea e
a mul iple linea eg ession model o o ecas
he p og am o wo ks o cons uc ion companies
and o p oduce S-cu es. Recei ed esul s
con i m he e ec i eness o he p oposed
model.
Bohne e al. (2016) explo e claims in l a ion
wi h ocus on au omobile liabili y insu ance.
The d i e s o claims in l a ion isk and i s impac
on ese ing a e de e mined on he g ound
o s epwise mul iple eg ession analysis.
Kubico á and Kádeko á (2012) analyze e enue
impac on he demand o Slo ak households o
ood p oduc s. Be ezan e al. (2013) examine
he in l uence o sus ainable ho el p ac ices on
he sa is ac ion and in en ion o e u n o ho el
gues s om di e en na ionali ies. Based on
mul iple eg ession and mul inomial logis ic
eg ession, i is con i med he exis ence
o a posi i e ela ionship o hese p ac ices
on gues s’ sa is ac ion le els and e u n
in en ions. Ci e Cos a (2013) iden i i es main
ac o s impac ing p ice o ma ion and ma ke
segmen a ion in seaside accommoda ions. The
esea che conside s angible cha ac e is ics
o each es ablishmen , which a e used as
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117
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
explana o y a iables o p ice, on he basis o
a mul iple eg ession model.
Domingues e al. (2016) elabo a e he
In eg a ed Managemen Sys ems Ma u i y
Model, which gi es a possibili y o compa e
in eg a ed managemen sys ems conce ning
hei ela i e s age o e olu ion. The esea che s
in es iga e he s a is ical-based componen o
he model, paying a en ion o he ela ionships
be ween h ee independen a iables and mul i-
eg ession model and o he a iables. Dø ing
and Ma ín-Rubio (2013) s udy he impac o
eam managemen on eam-lea ning ac i i ies.
On he basis o mul i- eg ession analysis, hey
disco e ed ha he leade ship beha io o he
eam leade is impo an in e ms o acili a ion
o eam lea ning.
Applying mul iple linea eg ession and
bina y logis ic eg ession, Pollack and Adle
(2016) i nd ou ha p ojec managemen and
IT skills ha e a signi i can posi i e in l uence on
p o i abili y and o al sales o small o medium
en e p ises. Spillecke and B e el (2013) use
he mul i- eg ession app oach o de e mine
he impac o sales managemen con ols on
he en ep eneu ial o ien a ion o he sales
depa men (SEO). The esul s show ha SEO
is an impo an le e o inc ease pe o mance.
Picke nell e al. (2016) iden i y de e minan s o
expo ing ac i i ies o SME. Based on a bina y
logis ic mul iple eg ession app oach, hey
disco e ed ha SME expo ope a ions a e
subs an ially in l uenced by he indus y sec o ,
age and he cha ac e is ics o he SME owne -
manage and he i ms’ a ailable esou ces.
Sluisa and De Gio anni (2016) esea ch
he e ec o he iden i i ed key d i e s o
i ms (supply chain coo dina ion con ac s,
pe o mance, supply chain o ien a ion, and
supply chain in eg a ion) on hei likelihood o
adop ing a supply chain coo dina ion con ac .
Mul iple and mul inomial logis ic eg essions a e
applied o es ima e he ela ionships be ween
hese a iables. Se wa (2013) conside s he
speci i c ea u es o he ma ke in e ms o
lending o households. The esea che employs
he mul i- egime eg ession model ela ed o
di e en economic s a es o he c edi ma ke
(i.e. a no mal egime o a boom egime) o
iden i y he c edi ma ke al e na es be ween
egimes.
Zhao e al. (2016) conside he use mul i
eg ession dynamic models in he i nancial
sec o and ela ed business a eas, aimed a
he imp o emen o o ecas ing and decision
analysis. The esea ch esul s con i m ha
such goal is achie able, and hese models
a e l exible and e i cien , ha ing a a ie y o
p ac ical u ili y unc ions.
2. In e na ional Posi ion o Uk aine
and V4 G oup
E en hough Uk aine belongs o one o he
la ges coun ies si ua ed in Eu ope, i is no
he EU membe on he con a y o he coun ies
o V4 g oup. S ill, Uk aine made he ollowing
ag eemen s enabling coope a ion wi h he V4
coun ies:
wi h he Czech Republic: T ea y on
F iendly Rela ions and Coope a ion
be ween Uk aine and he Czech Republic,
Ag eemen be ween he Go e nmen o
Uk aine and he Go e nmen o he Czech
Republic on Economic, Indus ial, Scien i i c
and Technical Coope a ion;
wi h Hunga y: T ea y on Basics o Good
Neighbo ship and Coope a ion be ween
Uk aine and he Republic o Hunga y,
Ag eemen be ween he Go e nmen o
Uk aine and he Go e nmen o he Republic
o Hunga y on Economic Coope a ion;
wi h Poland: T ea y be ween Uk aine
and he Republic o Poland on Good
Neighbo ship, F iendly Rela ions and
Coope a ion, Ag eemen be ween
he Go e nmen o Uk aine and he
Go e nmen o he Republic o Poland on
Economic Coope a ion;
wi h he Slo ak Republic: T ea y on
Good Neighbo ship, F iendly Rela ions
and Coope a ion be ween Uk aine and
he Slo ak Republic, Ag eemen be ween
he Go e nmen o Uk aine and he
Go e nmen o he Slo ak Republic on
Economic, Indus ial and Scien i i c and
Technical Coope a ion.
The p esen V4 g oup has decla ed a ew
common a ge s since i s ounda ion in 1991,
on which hei coope a ion wi hin as well as
ou side he g oup is based. The a ge s a e
as ollows: de elopmen o democ acy and
s a e so e eign y, p o ec ion o human igh s,
wo king on a mode n ma ke economy, aking
pa in Eu opean economic, poli ical, secu i y
and legal sys ems. (Viseg adg oup, 1991).
All V4 coun ies ha e ound a ious ways o
coope a ion in social as well as business a eas
wi h Uk aine.
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118 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
The openness o Uk aine o o eign ade
is depic ed by he da a o S a e S a is ics
Se ice o Uk aine. A d i ing o ce o Uk aine
and i s economy a e household expenses
(60%), whe eas he in es men s o m jus 20%.
Ve kho od and Pe enko (2014) s a e ha
a eason o such low domes ic incen i e can be
a ce ain amoun o skep icism ega ding c edi -
g an ing o human capi al unde i nancing,
which is he sou ce o inno a i e po en ial.
A dec ease in e enues caused by his can be
ega ded as a ba ie on he economic g ow h.
I is an unbalanced dis ibu ion o in es men
incen i es ha p e en Uk aine companies
om ha ing inno a i e po en ial and he e o e,
causing a decline in hei e enues.
Acco ding o he da a om he S a e
S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine (2017), he expo
sha e on GDP oscilla es be ween 45-48%,
whe eas he impo alues sligh ly exceed and
o m app oxima ely 48-52% o GDP. Fo nalska-
Sku czyńska (2015) s esses he suppo ing
ole o s a e when men ioning expo . E ec i e
o ms o suppo ing expo ing companies om
go e nmen a e sui able p omo ion p og ams
wi h an emphasis on i ms’ p oduc i i y and
expo assis ance. The Eu opean Commission
(2017b) has shown a da abase abou
de elopmen o in e na ional ade be ween
EU and Uk aine. Among he main expo
ade l ows om Uk aine a e as ollows: base
me als and a icles he eo ; ege able p oduc s;
mine al p oduc s; machine y and appliances;
animal o ege able a s and oils; oods u s;
be e ages; obacco; p oduc s o he chemical o
allied indus ies. On he con a y, he ollowing
p oduc s a e mos ly impo ed: mine al p oduc s;
machine y and appliances; p oduc s o
he chemical o allied indus ies; plas ics, ubbe
and a icles he eo . The highes sha e in expo
(34%) as well as in impo (40%) ep esen s he
impo ance o a e i o ial link be ween Uk aine
and EU as a whole. The second mos impo an
link o Uk aine conce ning in e na ional
ade is he a ea o Russian Fede a ion.
(BusinessIn o.cz, 2016) Doing business wi hin
EU has been made possible since 1s June
2016 by DCFTA, which is a pa o Associa ion
Ag eemen (AA). The Eu os a indica o s (2017)
highligh a small sha e o impo (0.4%) as well
as he expo o Uk aine o Eu ozone coun ies
(whe e only Slo akia is he membe om he V4).
Fig. 1: Main ade pa ne s o V4 coun ies
Sou ce: Wi old Gadomski (2016-10-28). The Viseg ad G oup coun ies a e close poli ically han economically. Re ie-
ed om h p://www. i nancialobse e .eu/poland/ he- iseg ad-g oup-coun ies-a e-close -poli ically- han-economically/.
EM_2_2018.indd 118EM_2_2018.indd 118 22.6.2018 9:17:2522.6.2018 9:17:25
119
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
Al hough i seems o be an insigni i can sha e
om Eu ozone´s pe spec i e, o example,
Ge many ep esen s a e y impo an business
pa ne o Uk aine. The V4 coun ies a e o he
impo an Eu opean pa ne s, and hese a e in
he ollowing o de – Poland, Hunga y, Czech
Republic and Slo akia. (Eu opean Commission,
2017c; BusinessIn o.cz, 2016)
Gadomski (2016) analyzed main expo
and impo pa ne s o Viseg ad coun ies o
he yea 2015 (see Fig. 1). All he coun ies
a e p ima ily dependen on Ge man expo s
and impo s. Mo eo e , he e is he ac o
dependency o he coun ies among each
o he . Fo hese coun ies, doing business
wi h Uk aine o ms less han 3% ou o hei
o al o eign ade.
3. Da a and Me hodology
The inpu da a o he analysis we e explici ly
ob ained om he S a e S a is ics Se ice o
Uk aine. These we e om he yea s 2002-2013
inclusi e. Among he main es ing a iables, he
ollowing ones we e chosen:
he expo om Uk aine, he Czech
Republic, Hunga y, Poland and Slo akia
among each o he ;
he GDP pe capi a in Uk aine, he Czech
Republic, Hunga y, Poland and Slo akia.
Nomina ed a iables we e selec ed
because bo h GDP and expo a e closely
ela ed and he au ho s we e in e es ed in he
ex en o which hese a iables a ec expo o
V4 coun ies. The da a ob ained om he ime
line we e hen used o he pu pose o a mo e
de ailed end analysis using he s a is ical
so wa e G e l.
To unde s and he mechanism and causes
o he de elopmen ends in examined
economic, social o biological p ocesses
assumes he need o handle some p ocedu es
ha allow o desc ibe he de elopmen
cha ac e is ics o some indica o s and hus o
unde s and he mechanisms de e mining his
de elopmen .
The simples concep o modeling eal
alues ime se ies y is one-dimensional model
in he shape o he one o elemen a y unc ions:
Y
, (1)
whe e Y´ is expec ed alue o he indica o a
ime . And such ha he di e ence as ollows:
y – Y ,
= ε , (2)
called i egula componen s andom e o s),
we e al oge he minimal and included he
in l uence o o he ac o s besides ime.
The end componen e l ec s long- e m
changes in he a e age beha io o he ime
se ies e.g. long- e m g ow h and long- e m
decline). I a ises om he ac ion o o ces ha
sys ema ically ac in he same di ec ion.
One o he mos impo an asks o he ime
se ies analysis is o cap u e in an app op ia e
o m he o e all gene al end in he e olu ion o
obse ed indica o (Ob ulo ič, 2010).
In end analysis o he pe iod o 2002
o 2013, we used he log-log linea model
displayed below in i s gene al o m:
logs = b0 + b1logx1 + b2logx2 +
+ b3logx3 + b4logx4 + b5logx5 +
+ b6logx6 + b7logx7 + b8logx8.
(3)
Using his model, we in es iga ed he
amoun o expo om Uk aine o he V4
coun ies ( he dependen a iable) while
changing he independen a iables ( olume o
expo o V4 and GDP pe capi a in Uk aine and
V4 coun ies).
P ocessing had been pe o med wi h
GRETL so wa e applica ion. Ano he
me hod we used is mul i- ac o ial analysis o
a iance, based on which we in es iga ed
he signi i cance o di e ences in expo o
ag icul u al commodi y sec ions (li e animals
and animal p oduc s, animal and ege able a s
and oils and plan p oduc s) be ween he V4
coun ies and olumes o expo be ween he
sec ions. So wa e applica ion S a g aphics had
been used o he p ocessing.
Based on he alues measu ed h ough
mul i- ac o analysis o a iance we can
examine whe he he ac o a e ages di e
a he indi idual le els, which is possible o
o mula e in o a symbolic insc ip ion as a null
hypo hesis (H0) in he o m:
H0 :
m
L
21 (4)
In null hypo hesis we s a e ha he a e age
alues o indi idual ac o le els do no
signi i can ly di e . An al e na i e hypo hesis
con adic s he null hypo hesis, i.e. a leas
one median alue
i
is signi i can ly di e en
om he o he s. Tes c i e ion is based on
Λ
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120 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
he decomposi ion o o al a iabili y o he
a iabili y be ween he classes and wi hin he
classes.
In case we ejec he null hypo hesis and
accep he al e na i e one, we also ha e o
i nd ou which ac o le els a e s a is ically
signi i can ly di e en , and which we conside
o be nea ly iden ical. Analysis o a iance is
hen supplemen ed by u he e alua ion, called
con as analysis. In his a icle, we used he leas
signi i can di e ence es - LSD es . Ob ulo ič
(2010) de i ned ha by below ela ionship:
11
..
2
ijnm
ij
yy s
(5)
4. Resul s
In his pa o he p ojec we deal wi h he
analysis o he expo o p oduc s om Uk aine
o he V4 coun ies (Czech Republic, Hunga y,
Poland, and Slo ak Republic). In asce aining
he dependence o expo o goods om
Uk aine we used a log-log linea mul iple model
whe e he dependen a iable is always expo
o he indi idual V4 coun y and independen
a iables we e he amoun s o expo o he
o he V4 coun ies (in housands USD) and
hei GDP pe capi a (in housands USD).
4.1 Expo o Goods om Uk aine
o he Czech Republic
In he case o expo om Uk aine o he Czech
Republic is he pa icula shape o he model as
ollows: logs = -0.71logx1 + 1.6logx2 - 3.77logx5
(P- alue: 0.034, 0.023, 0.018). De elopmen
o he expo om Uk aine o Czech Republic
o he pe iod 2002-2013 is p esen ed in Fig. 2.
This i gu e shows a g owing end o expo s
om Uk aine o he Czech Republic al eady in
2002. A sha p decline in expo s is displayed
o he yea 2009. This decline e l ec s he
impac o he economic c isis and a decline in
GDP in he Czech Republic. The expo s o he
Czech Republic ha e con inued wi h a sligh ly
inc easing end since 2010. I s s a is ical
analysis is p esen ed in Tab. 1.
Fig. 2: De elopmen o expo om Uk aine o he Czech Republic
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
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121
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
This model was s a is ically signi i can
(R2 = 0.997). The s a is ical signi i cance o he
p- alue ( able sign **) was eco ded o he
ollowing h ee independen a iables: expo
o Hunga y; expo o Poland and GDP Czech
Republic pe capi a. The esul da a show
an inc ease in expo o he Czech Republic
wi h a posi i e line wi h expo o Poland. The
inc ease o 1% o expo o Poland caused
an inc ease o 1.61%. The e was a nega i e
connec ion wi h expo o Hunga y whe e
an inc ease o 1% expo o Hunga y mean
a dec ease o expo o he Czech Republic
o 0.71%. Las signi i can esul was indica ed
as dec ease o 3.77% in expo o he Czech
Republic wi h an inc ease o 1% o GDP pe
capi a in he Czech Republic.
4.2 Expo o Goods om Uk aine o
Hunga y
De elopmen o he expo om Uk aine o
Hunga y o he pe iod 2002-2013 is shown
in Fig. 3. This g aph shows a g owing end o
expo s o Hunga y o e he epo ing pe iod.
A sligh dec ease was eco ded in 2005 and
a signi i can dec ease in 2009 as in he case
o expo s o he Czech Republic. In he case o
expo om Uk aine o Hunga y, he pa icula
model o m is as ollows:
logs = –1.15logx1 + 2.11logx2 – 4.49logx5
(S a is ically signi i can o h ee independen
a iables: x1 = expo o he Czech Republic,
x2 = expo o Poland and x5 = GDP/capi a in
Czech Republic, P- alue: 0.034, 0.01, 0.048).
The esul s show ha 1% inc ease in expo
o he Czech Republic causes a dec ease in
expo o Hunga y by an a e age o 1.15%. On
he con a y, 1% inc ease in expo o Poland
shows an a e age inc ease o expo o Hunga y
by 2.11%. The inc ease in GDP pe capi a in
he Czech Republic by 1% causes a dec ease
in expo o Hunga y by an a e age o 4.49%.
The alues o wo independen a iables:
expo o Poland and GDP Czech Republic
Model 1: OLS, using obse a ions 2002-2013 (T=12)
Dependen a iable: expo Czech Republic
coe i cien s d. a io - a io p- alue
cons 0.858 1.514 0.567 0.610
expo Hunga y –0.715 0.193 –3.700 0.034 **
expo Poland 1.614 0.375 4.307 0.023 **
expo Slo akia –0.256 0.569 –0.449 0.684
GDP Uk aine pe cap. –0.694 0.341 –2.033 0.135
GDP Czech Republic pe cap. –3.769 0.802 –4.698 0.018 **
GDP Hunga y pe cap. 2.312 0.976 2.370 0.099 *
GDP Poland pe cap. 3.343 1.302 2.568 0.083 *
GDP Slo akia pe cap. –0.379 1.179 –0.321 0.769
Mean dependen a 5.637 S.D. dependen a 0.227
Sum squa ed esid 0.0018 S.E. o eg ession 0.025
R-squa ed 0.9968 Adjus ed R–squa ed 0.988
F(8, 3) 116.980 P– alue (F) 0.0012
Log-likelihood 35.739 Akaike c i e ion –53.478
Schwa z c i e ion –49.114 Hannan–Quinn –55.094
ho –0.426 Du bin–Wa son 2.838
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
Tab. 1: S a is ical analysis o expo de elopmen om Uk aine o he Czech Republic
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122 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
pe capi a a e copying he posi i e/nega i e
de elopmen o p e ious esul s o expo s o
he Czech Republic. This model was s a is ically
signi i can (R2 = 0.988). The s a is ical analysis o
de elopmen o expo o Hunga y is p esen ed
in Tab. 2.
4.3 Expo o Goods om Uk aine
o Poland
De elopmen o he expo om Uk aine o
Poland o he pe iod 2002-2013 is p esen ed
in he ollowing Fig. 4. The economic c isis o
2009 again in e up ed a g owing end o expo s
o Poland. A e y simila g aph was illus a ed in
Fig. 2 o expo s o he Czech Republic. When
analyzing expo om Uk aine o Poland, he
pa icula shape o he model is as ollows:
logs = 0.53logx1 + 0.43logx2 + 2.03logx5 -
- 1.5logx6 - 2.09logx7 (S a is ically signi i can o
i e independen a iables, whe e x1 = expo
o he Czech Republic, x2 = expo o Hunga y,
x5 = GDP/capi a in he Czech Republic,
x6 = GDP/capi a in Hunga y, x7 = GDP/capi a
in Poland, P- alue: 0.023, 0.01, 0.049, 0.031,
0.037).
The esul s show ha 1% inc ease in expo
o he Czech Republic p oduces an inc ease in
expo o Poland by an a e age o 0.53%. 1%
inc ease in expo o Hunga y would inc ease
on a e age he expo o Poland by 0.43%.
Inc ease in GDP/capi a in he Czech Republic
by 1% causes an inc ease in expo o Poland
on a e age by 2.03% while inc ease in GDP/
capi a in Hunga y would cause a educ ion
in expo o Poland by an a e age o 1.5%.
An inc ease in GDP/capi a in Poland would cause
a educ ion in expo o Poland by an a e age
o 2.09%. This model is s a is ically signi i can
(R2 = 0.999). S a is ical analysis o de elopmen
o expo o Poland could be seen in Tab. 3.
4.4 Expo o Goods om Uk aine
o he Slo ak Republic
De elopmen o he expo om Uk aine o
he Slo ak Republic o he pe iod 2002-2013
is p esen ed in Fig. 5. The de elopmen end
co esponds o p e ious de elopmen s in
Fig. 2 (Expo o he Czech Republic) and Fig. 4
(Expo o Poland). An eno mous decline in
expo s o he Slo ak Republic was displayed
Fig. 3: De elopmen o expo om Uk aine o Hunga y
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
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123
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
o he 2009.The pa icula shape o he model in
he analysis o expo om Uk aine o Slo akia
is as ollows: logs = -1.94logx8 (S a is ically
signi i can o one independen a iable only,
whe e x8 = GDP/capi a in Slo akia, P- alue:
0.014).
The esul s indica e an inc ease in GDP pe
capi a in Slo akia would cause a dec ease in
expo o Slo akia by an a e age o 1.94%. The
model is s a is ically signi i can (R2 = 0.994).
S a is ical analysis o de elopmen o expo o
Slo akia is gi en in Tab. 4.
Comp ehensi e look a he expo shows
he ollowing esul s. Inc ease in expo o
p oduc s o he Czech Republic is posi i ely ied
o he inc ease in expo o Poland, nega i ely
ied wi h an inc ease o GDP pe capi a in
he Czech Republic and he inc eased expo
o Hunga y. Inc ease in expo o goods o
Hunga y is posi i ely linked wi h an inc ease in
expo o Poland, nega i ely wi h an inc ease in
expo o he Czech Republic and wi h inc ease
in GDP pe capi a in he Czech Republic.
Inc eased expo o Poland is posi i ely
linked wi h an inc ease in expo o he Czech
Republic, he inc ease in expo o Hunga y,
wi h an inc ease in GDP pe capi a in he Czech
Republic and nega i ely ied wi h an inc ease
in GDP pe capi a in Hunga y and Poland.
G ow h o expo o Slo akia is nega i ely
linked only wi h an inc ease in GDP pe capi a
in Slo akia. In ou opinion, he exis ence o
a nega i e ela ionship be ween he olume
o Uk ainian expo and GDP pe capi a
in Viseg ad coun ies can be explained ha ,
in case o he imp o emen o economic
si ua ion in he V4 coun ies and he inc ease
o income o hei popula ion, a la ge numbe
o cus ome s change hei p e e ences and buy
mo e expensi e goods manu ac u ed ou side
o Uk aine. Gene aliza ion o he esul s o he
eg ession analysis is p esen ed in Tab. 5.
Model 2: OLS, using obse a ions 2002-2013 (T=12)
Dependen a iable: expo Hunga y
coe i cien s d. a io - a io p- alue
cons 1.838 1.718 1.070 0.363
expo Czech Republic -1.148 0.310 -3.700 0.034 **
expo Poland 2.112 0.366 5.766 0.010 **
expo Slo akia -0.552 0.673 -0.820 0.473
GDP Uk aine pe cap. -0.673 0.542 -1.241 0.303
GDP Czech Republic pe cap. -4.490 1.386 -3.239 0.048 **
GDP Hunga y pe cap. 3.067 1.120 2.738 0.071 *
GDP Poland pe cap. 4.147 1.724 2.406 0.095 *
GDP Slo akia pe cap. -0.890 1.431 -0.622 0.578
Mean dependen a 5.991 S.D. dependen a 0.151
Sum squa ed esid 0.003 S.E. o eg ession 0.031
R-squa ed 0.988 Adjus ed R-squa ed 0.958
F(8, 3) 32.021 P- alue (F) 0.008
Log-likelihood 32.896 Akaike c i e ion -47.793
Schwa z c i e ion -43.429 Hannan-Quinn -49.409
ho -0.254 Du bin-Wa son 2.495
Sou ce: own p ocessing by he so wa e GRETL based on he da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine
(h p://www.uk s a .go .ua/ope a i /ope a i 2016/zd/z /z _u/z 0816_u.h m) and UNCTAD
(h p://unc ads a .unc ad.o g/wds/TableViewe / ableView.aspx?Repo Id=96)
Tab. 2: S a is ical analysis o expo de elopmen om Uk aine o Hunga y
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131
2, XXI, 2018
Ma ke ing and T ade
p o . Ing. Ľudmila Nagyo á, Ph.D.
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o Ma ke ing and T ade
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
Ing. Monika Ho áko á, Ph.D.
Tomas Ba a Uni e si y in Zlín
Facul y o Managemen and Economics
Depa men o Economics
Czech Republic
[email p o ec ed]
doc. Ing. Se hiy Mo oz, Ph.D.
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o Ma ke ing and T ade
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
p o . D . Ing. Elena Ho ská
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o Ma ke ing and T ade
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
doc. Ing. Zuzana Poláko á, Ph.D.
Slo ak Uni e si y o Ag icul u e in Ni a
Facul y o Economics and Managemen
Depa men o S a is ics
and Ope a ions Resea ch
Slo akia
[email p o ec ed]
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132 2018, XXI, 2
Ma ke ing a obchod
Abs ac
THE ANALYSIS OF EXPORT TRADE BETWEEN UKRAINE AND VISEGRAD
COUNTRIES
Ľudmila Nagyo á, Monika Ho áko á, Se hiy Mo oz, Elena Ho ská,
Zuzana Poláko á
The dynamic de elopmen o o eign ade is impo an o he s able economic posi ion. I can be
conside ed as a con i ma ion o he ac ual e i ciency o he na ional economy and i s abili y o be
compe i i e in he global economics. In his pape , we analyze main endencies o expo ade o
Uk aine wi h Viseg ad coun ies and examine whe he he e is a ela ionship be ween he le el o
GDP and he olume o expo ac i i ies be ween hese coun ies.
I should be no ed ha a ious ag eemen s we e concluded be ween Uk aine and each coun y
o he V4 g oup ega ding economic and ade ela ions.
The main aim o his pape is o e alua e de elopmen o expo o goods be ween Uk aine
and Viseg ad coun ies be ween yea s 2002-2013. The da a o S a e S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine,
Eu os a and Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade and De elopmen (UNCTAD) we e used.
The de elopmen o expo om Uk aine o V4 coun ies is in es iga ed using he so wa e
GRETL and log-log linea model.
I is disco e ed ha Uk aine’s expo ope a ions a e impac ed by expo o o he ade pa ne s
and GDP pe capi a o he coun y. The s onges posi i e link o Uk aine expo om V4 g oup is
ep esen ed by Poland. I is iden i i ed ha , when he GDP pe capi a o he conce ned coun y goes
up, he expo o ha coun y declines. I is also e ealed ha he e is a subs an ial di e ence wi h
espec o expo o ag icul u al commodi ies om Uk aine o he abo e-men ioned coun ies. To
a signi i can ex en , Uk aine’s expo is o ien ed owa ds plan p oduc s.
Uk aine should elabo a e a well-de i ned ade s a egy and ex end i s cu en expo ac i i ies
wi h V4 coun ies. I should be mo e deeply in eg a ed in o he EU’s ma ke o using mo e e i cien ly
possibili ies, which exis in he ame o he signed Uk aine-Eu opean Union Associa ion Ag eemen .
Key Wo ds: Expo o goods, ade de elopmen , Uk aine, Viseg ad coun ies.
JEL Classi i ca ion: F1.
DOI: 10.15240/ ul/001/2018-2-008
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