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Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change
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Bal ic he ing o ood: Shades o g ey in how backcas ing ecommenda ions
wo k ac oss explo a o y scena ios
Simo Sa kki
a,⁎
, Mia Pihlajamäki
b,c,d
a
Cul u al An h opology, Facul y o Humani ies, PO Box 1000, 90014, Uni e si y o Oulu, Finland
b
Facul y o Managemen , Uni e si y o Tampe e, FI-33014 Tampe e, Finland
c
Ecosys ems and En i onmen Resea ch P og amme, Facul y o Biological and En i onmen al Sciences, Uni e si y o Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
d
Wa e Resou ces and En i onmen al Enginee ing Resea ch G oup, P.O. Box 4300, 90014, Uni e si y o Oulu, Finland
ABSTRACT
Scena io me hods can be used o cope wi h u u e unce ain ies by en isioning plausible u u es and iden i ying pa hs o each desi able a ge s. The objec i e o his
pape is o de elop no el p oposals e ealing gene alised dynamics on “HOW” he di e en no ma i e ecommenda ions can wo k unde di e en explo a o y
scena ios. P e ious li e a u e has ocused mo e on de eloping me hods o in eg a ing no ma i e and explo a o y scena ios han on heo ising dynamics o he HOW
ques ion. We examine his heo e ical ques ion ia a case s udy on po en ial u u es o use and go e nance o Bal ic he ing ca ch. The case s udy: 1) de elops
ecommenda ions on how he use o Bal ic he ing as ood can be inc eased based on a pa icipa o y backcas ing wo kshop wi h ishe ies expe s; 2) iden i ies ou
explo a o y scena ios on he u u e o Bal ic ishe ies go e nance based on a li e a u e e iew; 3) assesses how he ecommenda ions wo k unde ou al e na i e
plausible u u es. We iden i y and discuss six gene alised dynamics answe ing he HOW ques ion. Toge he , hese s ess he need o analyse simul aneously mul iple
d i e s, s akeholde s, explo a o y scena ios, no ma i e ecommenda ions, and syne gies and ic ions be ween ecommenda ions. This wo k con ibu es o capaci ies
o cope wi h u u e changes and p oac i ely de elop p ac ical means o make ou wo ld mo e sus ainable.
1. In oduc ion
How o make decisions unde u u e unce ain ies? This is a key
ques ion, o example, o enhancing sus ainabili y in he age o
p essing social and en i onmen al challenges. Scena io me hods a e
one p omising and much used al e na i e o cope wi h complexi y and
unce ain y and o enhance possibili ies o in o ming u u e sus ain-
abili y (Ca lsen e al., 2013;Reilly and Willenbockel, 2010; an Vlie
and Kok, 2015;Ve oo e al., 2014;Wilkinson e al., 2013;W igh
e al., 2014). Scena ios can ac as a c ucial b idge be ween en i on-
men al science and policy i hey succeed in o e coming he e en ion
o p e ious agendas and knowledge (Sa kki e al., 2017). Scena ios can
in luence policymaking by summa ising and syn hesising scien i ic
knowledge in an unde s andable o ma (IPBES, 2016), and by enga-
ging s akeholde s and policymake s in knowledge p oduc ion and in-
c easing owne ship and use o he scena ios in p ac ice (Kok e al.,
2007;O'B ien and Meadows, 2013). Howe e , limi ed up ake o sce-
na io esul s is o en due o poo knowledge on whe he and how
no ma i e ecommenda ions would wo k ac oss di e en explo a o y
u u es (G een and Wea he head, 2014). Cho (2013) e iewed ech-
nological o ecas ing li e a u e and p oposed ha combina ions o ex-
plo a o y and no ma i e scena io app oaches ha e been among he
mos in e es ing applica ions in he ield.
Explo a o y scena ios desc ibe a ious al e na i e plausible u u es
and a e commonly used in global en i onmen al assessmen s (e.g. MA,
2005; an Vuu en e al., 2012). Explo a o y scena ios a e no p ojec-
ions o p edic ions, bu holis ic and schema ic desc ip ions o how he
u u e may un old unde a logic amed by a ia ions in key un-
ce ain ies and hei implica ions o he beha iou o selec ed d i e s.
Explo a o y scena ios o en come in se s o wo o mo e, each o which
ollows an in e nal logic and consis ency. They desc ibe how la ge-scale
social, economic, en i onmen al, poli ical and ideological eali ies may
change and in e ac in he u u e, leading o al e na i e plausible u-
u es (Raskin e al., 2005;Wilkinson, 2009;Ve oo e al., 2014;
Gallopín, 2015). Explo a o y scena ios ou line a ious plausible de-
elopmen pa hs and hei consequences wi hou being policy-p e-
sc ip i e (Kok e al., 2007). Thus, explo a o y scena ios a e good o
add essing he impac s and implica ions o la ge-scale d i e s and
ends, bu all sho in p oposing ac ual measu es ha could be used o
achie e a desi able u u e.
No ma i e a ge -seeking scena ios, such as hose done by pa ici-
pa o y backcas ing me hods, can be used o help scien is s, decision-
make s and o he s akeholde s o co-p oduce ecommenda ions and
pa hs on how o achie e a desi able u u e poin o o a oid undesi ed
u u es (Robinson, 2003;Robinson e al., 2011;Quis e al., 2011;
Kishi a e al., 2017;Ve g ag and Quis , 2011;Wangel, 2011;Robinson
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. ech o e.2018.11.001
Recei ed 15 Decembe 2017; Recei ed in e ised o m 20 Sep embe 2018; Accep ed 1 No embe 2018
⁎
Co esponding au ho .
E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (S. Sa kki), [email p o ec ed] (M. Pihlajamäki).
Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
A ailable online 17 No embe 2018
0040-1625/ © 2018 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie Inc. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license
(h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
T
e al., 2011;Zimme mann e al., 2012). Backcas ing “in ol es wo king
backwa ds om a pa icula desi ed u u e end-poin o se o goals o
he p esen , in o de o de e mine he physical easibili y o ha u u e
and he (policy) measu es ha would be equi ed o each ha poin .”
(Robinson, 2003). The ou pu o a backcas ing exe cise is a se o
conc e e ope a ional ac ions o di e en s akeholde s ha a e needed
o each a desi able u u e. The downside o a ge -seeking scena ios is
hei lack o a en ion o he la ge socie al con ex , which has e ec s on
wha kinds o pa hs a e likely o e en possible, and wha kinds o
no ma i e ecommenda ions will wo k in di e en kinds o u u es.
To o e come hese p oblems, ecen esea ch has aimed o combine
he wo ypes o scena ios in a ious ways o add ess how no ma i e
p oposals would wo k ac oss di e se u u es (e.g. Kok e al., 2011;
Miles ad e al., 2014; an Be kel and Ve bu g, 2012). The aim o such a
combina ion is no o gi e me ely a snapsho o a pa icula u u e, bu
o p opose ans o ma ion pa hways wi hin a sys emic desc ip ion o
al e na i e u u e s a es (see Sa i as and Nug oho, 2012). The combi-
na ion can assess how e ec i e and obus ce ain ac ions o policy
measu es de ined by backcas ing a e, by delibe a ing whe he and how
hey wo k unde di e en al e na i e explo a o y scena ios.
Explo a o y and backcas ing scena ios ha e been in eg a ed in
a ious ways. In eg a i e and pa icipa o y me hods ha e been used,
ocusing on he iden i ica ion o no ma i e so-called “ obus e-
commenda ions” ha wo k unde many plausible u u e wo lds (Kok
e al., 2011; an Vlie and Kok, 2015). S a e al. (2016) ha e used
esea che -d i en explo a o y scena ios as a backg ound o pa icipa-
o y backcas ing. Ma low e al. (2015) c ea ed explo a o y scena ios,
and used policy decisions and plans ha he local communi y is con-
side ing o cap u e he no ma i e iews. Then pa icipa o y assessmen
was conduc ed o unde s and how he explo a o y scena ios may a ec
he abili y o he communi y o achie e hei no ma i e objec i es o
he u u e. G een and Wea he head (2014) ha e applied quan i a i e
me hods by iden i ying di e se u u es h ough p obabilis ic scena io
me hods and hen using decision-c i e ia o calcula e he ou come o
no ma i e ecommenda ions in each u u e. Also Kingsbo ough e al.
(2017) u ilise a p obabilis ic model o quan i y es ima es o e ec i e-
ness o a ange o no ma i e adap a ion op ions unde di e en u u e
si ua ions. The in eg a ed “app oach shows high po en ial, bu as he
me hodology is in i s in ancy, mo e esea ch is needed” ( an Vlie and
Kok, 2015: 43).
The objec i e o he p esen pape is o de elop no el p oposals
e ealing gene alised dynamics on “HOW” he di e en no ma i e ac-
ions can wo k unde di e en explo a o y scena ios. This has heo e-
ical alue, as p e ious li e a u e has no ocused much on heo ising
wha kind o dynamics be ween no ma i e ecommenda ions ac oss
di e se u u es may be, bu ocused mo e on de eloping me hods o
in eg a ing no ma i e and explo a o y scena ios.
We examine his heo e ical ques ion ia a case s udy on po en ial
u u es o use and go e nance o Bal ic he ing ca ch. The case s udy: 1)
de elops ecommenda ions on how he use o Bal ic he ing as ood can
be inc eased based on a pa icipa o y backcas ing wo kshop wi h
ishe ies expe s; 2) iden i ies ou explo a o y scena ios c ucial o
di e gen al e na i es o use and go e n Bal ic he ing based on a li -
e a u e e iew; 3) assesses how he ecommenda ions wo k unde he
ou explo a o y scena ios based on a desk s udy.
The empi ical alue is o explo e how he use o a sus ainable
p o ein sou ce, such as Bal ic he ing, can be inc eased, ha ing posi i e
en i onmen al and heal h impac s. This con ibu es sol ing he chal-
lenge o eeding he g owing human popula ion wi h nu i ious ood
(FAO, 2009;God ay e al., 2010;Mande s e al., 2012;UN, 25
Sep embe , 2015). Cu en ly, ish accoun s o app oxima ely 15% o
he o al animal p o ein consumed by humans (FAO, 2016a,b; Ma ch
2016) and he demand o sea ood con inues o inc ease (FAO, 2014;
Thu s an and Robe s, 2014). Bal ic he ing is one o he la ges com-
me cial ca ches in he Bal ic Sea and has g ea po en ial o be used
signi ican ly mo e han cu en ly as a sus ainable sou ce o p o ein o
people (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018). Howe e , complex social-ecological
dynamics and unce ain ies, including high dioxin le els in Bal ic he -
ing, luc ua ions in consume demand, access o he EU and global ish
ma ke , and he abili y o he ishing sec o o deal wi h he abo e-
men ioned challenges, will a ec whe he Bal ic he ing will be used
inc easingly as ood o no (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018).
The pape will con inue by p o iding a b ie backg ound o he case
o Bal ic he ing, ollowed by a no e on ma e ials and me hods. The
Resul s sec ion ske ches ou explo a o y scena ios based on li e a u e
and policy sc eening, iden i ies ecommenda ions o inc easing he use
o Bal ic he ing as ood based on he pa icipa o y backcas ing me hod,
and p o ides six examples o how he ecommenda ions wo k in each o
he ou explo a o y scena ios. Based on he six examples, we iden i y
gene alised dynamics on how he no ma i e ecommenda ions link o
explo a o y scena ios. We end wi h some b ie conclusions, especially
iden i ying a need o subsequen wo k on he HOW ques ion.
2. Challenges in he use o Bal ic he ing as ood
Bal ic he ing is one o he key comme cial ca ch species in he
Bal ic Sea in e ms o olume, bu i s use o human consump ion is low
and he majo i y o he ca ch is used as eed in u and ish a ming
(ICES, 2015a,b). The e a e many easons o his. Fi s ly, dioxin le els
in la ge (o e 17 cm) Bal ic he ing a e o en likely o exceed he al-
lowed maximum le el and he e o e he sale o he ish o di ec and
indi ec human consump ion in he EU is es ic ed (Regula ion (EU) No
1259/2011; Commission Recommenda ion (EU) 2016/688). Finland
and Sweden, which a e esponsible o ishing o e 60% o he o al
ca ch (ICES, 2015a,b), ha e an exemp ion o his ule and can sell all
la ge he ing domes ically, while in o he EU coun ies only he ing
ha is no likely o exceed he maximum allowable dioxin le el can be
placed on he ma ke . Secondly, he use o Bal ic he ing o human
consump ion has dec eased owing o low domes ic demand and poo
access o expo ma ke s (Pihlajamäki e al., 2016). Domes ic demand
o adi ional he ing p oduc s has dec eased (Na u al Resou ces
Ins i u e Finland, 2015), especially among younge gene a ions
(Mononen and U ala, 2010), which implies ha no el p oduc s a -
ac i e o a ious consume g oups would be needed o inc ease he
ma ke s (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018). Thi dly, he majo i y o he ing
lee s a ge he ing o indus ial pu poses (Lassen, 2011). In Finland,
o example, a ound wo hi ds o he ca ch has been, since he 1980s,
used o eed u animals (Se älä, 1996;Se älä e al., 2016). Fou hly, he
use o he ing o ishmeal and oil p oduc ion has inc eased as he e-
mo al o dioxins om he ishmeal and oil du ing he p oduc ion p o-
cess has become economically iable. As a esul , he e is newly- ound
in e es in in es ing in ishmeal and oil p oduc ion plan s in he Bal ic
Sea egion (Se älä e al., 2016).
The bene i s o using mo e Bal ic he ing as ood a e many.
Cu en ly, he EU ish ma ke depends hea ily on impo ed p oduc s
and he e o e he Eu opean Commission has called o imp o ed ish
and sea ood sel -su iciency and a ailabili y (Regula ion (EC) No 1380/
2013). While he Common Fishe ies Policy (CFP) sees aquacul u e as
he main s a egy o inc easing ood secu i y, small pelagic species,
such as Bal ic he ing, also ha e a g ea con ibu ion po en ial o in-
c easing he use o locally p oduced ish p oduc s (Pihlajamäki e al.,
2018;Tacon and Me ian, 2009). The bene i s o he ishing sec o e-
la e o imp o ed social and economic iabili y, which is based on he
di e ences in he ma ke alue o he ing sold o ood e sus eed.
Fu he mo e, a shi om u animal eed o ood di ec ed ishing
p omises new jobs in he ishing sec o ela ing o, o example, so ing
and p ocessing (see e.g. Se älä e al., 2016). F om he pe spec i e o
human heal h, a ecen isk-bene i analysis s udy sugges s ha , apa
om he isk g oups, he bene i s o Bal ic he ing consump ion o
human heal h ou weigh he po en ial isks ela ing o dioxin exposu e
(Tuomis o e al., 2015).
S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
201
3. Ma e ial and me hods
To answe he HOW ques ion (how no ma i e ecommenda ions
wo k ac oss explo a o y scena ios), a h ee s ep me hodology was used
(Fig. 1). The me hodology o answe he HOW ques ion needs a se o
explo a o y scena ios and no ma i e ecommenda ions in o de o
connec he wo. In gene al, he scena io de elopmen is a p ocess in-
cluding mo e o less pa icipa o y app oaches, and no ma i e s. ex-
plo a o y app oaches. O en he scena io me hods a e no based on a
single app oach o answe he HOW ques ion, bu ely on mixed
me hods combining pa icipa o y and esea ch-d i en s a egies, and
explo a o y and no ma i e app oaches (S a e al., 2016).
To answe he HOW ques ion, explo a o y scena ios ha e o en
p eceded backcas ing me hods, leading o he in eg a ion o he wo
( an Vlie and Kok, 2015). This enables scanning no ma i e e-
commenda ions agains di e se explo a o y scena ios by he s ake-
holde s in he backcas ing exe cise. He e we u ilised a di e en
s a egy: we i s had he pa icipa o y backcas ing wo kshop, hen we
de ined he explo a o y scena ios by esea ch-d i en s a egy, and i-
nally combined he wo wi h a desk s udy. Ha ing he esul s o he
pa icipa o y wo kshop as a backg ound, we di ec ed ou explo a o y
scena ios o be ele an o he objec i e o inc ease he use o Bal ic
he ing as ood de ined by he wo kshop pa icipan s. This enabled us
o examine he HOW ques ion wi h an empi ically in o med desk s udy.
Fu he me hodological de elopmen would include adding pa icipa-
o y aspec s also o he elabo a ion o he explo a o y scena ios and o
delibe a e he HOW ques ion in a pa icipa o y wo kshop se ing.
3.1. Backcas ing me hod
The backcas ing me hod is o en buil on he p emise ha by
wo king backwa ds he e will be less hinking han usual om he
cu en s a us quo and people migh disco e ha he e is much mo e
possible han was i s hough . The backcas ing me hod is o en pa -
icipa o y and engages s akeholde s since i is impo an o co-p oduce
no ma i e p oposals wi h a ious socie al implica ions (Robinson e al.,
2011;Wangel, 2011;Ve g ag and Quis , 2011. The backcas ing
me hod was applied as pa o a wo-day s akeholde wo kshop on he
dioxin p oblem o Bal ic he ing, which was a anged in Copenhagen in
Feb ua y 2016 (Pihlajamäki e al., 2016, 2018). Ele en expe s,
ep esen ing ishe men, p oduce s, adminis a ion, esea che s and
NGOs, om ou Bal ic Sea coun ies (Finland, Sweden, Es onia and
Denma k) we e engaged o iden i y pa hs o a desi able u u e.
The me hod s a ed wi h he wo kshop pa icipan s iden i ying a
desi able u u e o Bal ic he ing, which was o use mo e Bal ic he ing
as ood han cu en ly. This desi able u u e was di ided in o h ee sub-
a ge s ha could enable he ac ualisa ion o he o e all objec i e: 1)
35% o he o al Bal ic he ing ca ch o be used as ood in Bal ic Sea
coun ies by 2040; 2) 40% o he o al Bal ic he ing ca ch o be ex-
po ed and consumed as ood; and 3) he dioxin le el in Bal ic he ing
used as ood o dec ease o a sa e le el. The di ision in o sub- a ge s
was done by ou esea ch eam o p o ide a clea a ionale o pa i-
cipa o y backcas ing wo king backwa ds om hese no ma i e u u e
a ge s owa ds he p esen . The g oup was di ided in o h ee sub-
g oups in which each g oup add essed one o he h ee sub- a ge s o
inc easing he use o Bal ic he ing ca ch o ood. The g oup wo k was
scheduled o 2.5 h in he agenda. The g oups i s iden i ied se s o
de elopmen pa hs wo king om he sub- a ge s back o p esen . We
had p epa ed a empla e wi h i e-yea in e als om he p esen up o
2040, bu he g oups a he discussed he sequence o he e en s han
using he miles one yea s. The bene i o his was o be able o con-
cen a e on whe he some ac ions could be done al eady now in he
p esen yea , o i he e a e pa hs o ac ions ha would be enabled only
la e a e o he ac ions. The downside was ha he inal pa hs did no
include miles one yea s. The g oups also iden i ied he ole o di e en
go e nance ac o s in he implemen a ion o he ac ions. Finally, he
g oups we e supposed o assess he impac s o he ac ions on di e en
managemen objec i es (social, ecological, en i onmen al) e ealing
po en ial ade-o s associa ed o he iden i ied pa hs. Howe e , he
de elopmen pa hs u ned ou o be qui e complex and only one g oup
comple ed he iden i ica ion o po en ial ade-o s, while he o he wo
inished wi h discussion on s akeholde -speci ic ac ions. The iden i ied
and de ailed pa hs including chains o ac ions o each he h ee ob-
jec i es a e published elsewhe e (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018).
3.2. A desk s udy o iden i y explo a o y scena ios
We u ilised esea ch-d i en me hods o c ea ing explo a o y sce-
na ios on gene al u u e s a es o Bal ic Sea ishe ies go e nance, be-
cause ou esea ch ocus was o examine he dioxin challenge, and i s
Fig. 1. Th ee-s ep me hodological p ocess loca ed in scena io me hods ma ix including pa icipa o y and esea che -d i en scena io wo k, and explo a o y and
no ma i e scena ios.
S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
202
ela ionship o using Bal ic he ing as ood. The e o e, he explo a o y
scena ios p o ided necessa y gene al backg ounds desc ibing al e -
na i e u u es, in which he no ma i e goal o inc easing he use o
he ing as ood unc ions di e en ly. Also ecen explo a o y scena ios
on he Bal ic Sea we e a ailable (e.g. WWF, 2012), and hey we e ine-
uned by checking hei consis ency wi h la ge -scale explo a o y sce-
na io logics (Eu opean Commission, 2012;K iegle e al., 2012;MA,
2005;O'Neill e al., 2017). An es ablished scena io building me hod
(Wade, 2012) was used o explo e he al e na i e socie al condi ions o
Bal ic Sea ishe ies and en i onmen al go e nance in 2040.
The me hodology o c ea e explo a o y scena ios included he ol-
lowing phases: 1) iden i ica ion o d i e s, 2) iden i ica ion o wo key
unce ain ies ha a ec how a ious d i e s migh de elop, 3) c ea ing
s o ylines e lec ing ou scena ios sepa a ed by he wo unce ain ies
by e iewing ecen scena io li e a u e (Eu opean Commission, 2012;
K iegle e al., 2012;MA, 2005;O'Neill e al., 2017;WWF, 2012), and
4) ou lining hei speci ic ele ance o Bal ic Sea ishe ies go e nance.
A common app oach in c ea ing explo a o y scena ios is o de ine wo
key unce ain ies sepa a ing ou scena ios ha beha e di e gen ly in
espec o he key unce ain ies ( an Vuu en e al., 2012). We chose he
ex en o human impac on he Bal ic Sea en i onmen and he ex en o
policy and go e nance in eg a ion as key unce ain ies ha ame he
logics o ou explo a o y scena ios. These a e simila o he WWF
(2012) scena ios in which go e nance in eg a ion and ecological oo -
p in a e used as key unce ain ies.
3.3. A desk-s udy o combine explo a o y and backcas ing scena ios
Fo he pu poses o his pape , he au ho s ex ac ed six e-
commenda ions om he backcas ing pa hs ocusing on ques ions o
who should do wha o inc ease he consump ion o he ing as ood.
The six ecommenda ions we e iden i ied so ha hey include ac ions
by a ious s akeholde s, and co e all h ee sub- a ge s.
The esul s o he combina ion o explo a o y and backcas ing sce-
na ios ou line how he six ecommenda ions o inc ease he use o
Bal ic he ing as ood gained om he backcas ing exe cise wo k ac oss
he ou explo a o y scena ios. We hen assessed how each o he six
ecommenda ions would wo k in he ou di e gen wo lds he ex-
plo a o y scena io desc ibe, p o iding us wi h 24 examples. Induc i e
con en analysis was used o clus e he 24 examples unde six gen-
e alised p oposals on how backcas ing ecommenda ions can wo k in
he explo a o y scena ios. Induc i e con en analysis can help o build a
hypo hesis and assump ions on heo e ical ques ions whe e heo y is
limi ed (T acy, 2012), such as is he case he e.
We p esen a summa y o all 24 examples in he appendix
(Appendix 1), bu chose he six mos in e es ing examples ha a e e-
le an o iden i ying heo e ically in e es ing dynamics ela ed o he
“HOW” ques ion. The selec ion was based on assessmen o he un-
de lying logic o he 24 examples in e ms o wha kind o dynamics o
HOW hey e eal. To build no el heo e ical assump ions on he HOW
ques ion, we conside i a c edible choice o no include all examples,
bu jus hose con ibu ing di ec ly o ou Discussion sec ion. In he
Discussion sec ion, we de elop heo e ically ele an assump ions,
which can in o m u u e wo k on combining explo a o y and no ma i e
scena ios.
A key sho coming in ou scena io me hods o de elop he heo y
u he is ha he in eg a ion o no ma i e and explo a o y scena ios
was no pa icipa o y, bu a desk-s udy. Th ough a pa icipa o y
me hod we would ha e gained e en s onge g ounds o building
heo e ical p oposals add essing he HOW ques ion. E en hough ou
wo kshop me hod did no include a sepa a e session on combining
backcas s o explo a o y scena ios, s ill he wo kshop discussions in-
cluded ele an poin s o he combina ion. Whe e such s a emen s
we e missing, we used ou expe ise o iden i y he dynamics o he
HOW ques ion (Sec ion 4.3).
4. Resul s
4.1. Fou explo a o y scena ios
The ou iden i ied explo a o y scena ios ha desc ibe di e en
wo lds by 2040 a e: 1) “T ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y”, 2) “Business-
as-usual”, 3) “Inequali y”, and 4) “T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism”.
These scena ios di e ge in ela ion o how he dynamics o he key
hemes and d i e s un old, ha ing di e gen implica ions o he use o
Bal ic he ing as ood. Table 1 ou lines he ela ionships o he ou
scena ios o key hemes o d i e s. The d i e s o be included we e
chosen due o hei high ele ance o Bal ic he ing and i s use as ood.
4.2. Summa y o backcas ing esul s
Based on he backcas ing me hod in he s akeholde wo kshop, we
iden i ied a ious pa hs owa ds he a ge o inc easing he use o
Bal ic he ing as ood signi ican ly. Table 2 ou lines six key p oposals
on how his could be done and ocuses on who should do wha o
p omo e he a ge .
4.3. Combining he explo a o y and backcas ing scena ios
Ha ing ou lined he logic o ou explo a o y scena ios (Table 1)
and six ecommenda ions on how he use o Bal ic he ing as ood can
be inc eased (Table 2), we can combine hese wo esul s o in-
no a i ely analyse how each o he six ecommenda ions wo ks in each
explo a o y scena io (see Appendix 1). Below, we p o ide six examples
o he dynamics o how backcas ing ecommenda ions wo k unde he
explo a o y scena ios.
Dynamics 1: C ea ing access o he EU ma ke o Bal ic he ing in
he “business-as-usual” scena io.
E en i a no ma i e ecommenda ion seems o wo k unde a ce ain
scena io, i s e ec s may be nulli ied by o he dynamics in he scena io.
Wo kshop pa icipan s expec ed ha Eu opean ma ke s will open o
he ing i he demand o ish as a sou ce ood con inues o inc ease and
he s a e o a ious o he ish s ocks consumed in he Eu opean ma ke
con inues o decline. Opening o he ma ke s is also suppo ed in he
business-as-usual scena io by a endency o p omo e ee ade and
emo e p o ec ionism wi hin he EU. In his scena io, he isk man-
agemen is likely o change o maximise he con ibu ion o he EU's
ishe ies o ood secu i y. In o he wo ds, he Membe S a es a e likely
o be allowed o place he ing ha exceeds he maximum allowable
dioxin le el on he EU ma ke , p o iding ha consume s a e in o med
acco dingly. Howe e , in his scena io he demand o Bal ic he ing
ood p oduc s emains low and he e o e i was wonde ed in he
wo kshop whe he his opening niche o he ing in Eu opean ma ke s
is likely o be illed by a ious cheap p oduc s b ough in by he global
economy. Thus, in his scena io, despi e he access o he EU ish
ma ke , Bal ic he ing ishe ies would mos likely con ibu e o he ood
secu i y indi ec ly as ish eed and as ishmeal and oil de eloped o
human consump ion.
Dynamics 2: B anding he p oduc s unde he “T ans o ma ion o
p o ec ionism” scena io.
Speci ic ecommenda ions may no ac ualise in a ce ain scena io,
bu he e may be o he de elopmen s in he scena io ha subs i u e he
ecommended ac ion. The wo kshop pa icipan s conside ed ha he
b anding o he ing p oduc s is key o inc easing hei consump ion,
and ecognised ha ends in b anding he ing p oduc s we e linked o
sus ainabili y and heal h issues. In he “ ans o ma ion o p o-
ec ionism” scena io, he ma ke s be ween coun ies a e closed. In ad-
di ion, he demand o he ing ood p oduc s is low and he e a e no
S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
203
Table 1
Fou explo a o y scena ios and hei ela ionships o key ac o s a ec ing he use o Bal ic he ing as ood.
Scena ios
Key ac o s
T ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y
(In eg a ed go e nance and low human impac )
Business-as-usual
(In eg a ed go e nance and high human impac )
Inequali y
(F agmen ed go e nance and low human impac )
T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism
(F agmen ed go e nance and high human impac )
Rela ion o en i onmen al
p oblems
Ve y p oac i e Reac i e P oac i e– eac i e, a ies ac oss he Bal ic Sea
egion
P oac i e only i na ional economy o secu i y
h ea ened
Risk pe cep ion P ecau iona y p inciple Cau iousness when allowed by economic
de elopmen
The poo bea he isks, while hose well-o manage
isks ac i ely h ough indi idual choices
Only isks h ea ening na ional ( ood) secu i y
acknowledged
Inno a ions Subsidies and suppo o g een inno a ions Inno a ions p omo ing economic g ow h Some egions h i e, o he s s uggle Inno a ions enhancing na ional sel -su iciency
Technological de elopmen Fas Ve y as Slow Ve y slow
P oduc ion Inc eased e iciency, implemen a ion o
ecologically bes p ac ices
Inc eased e iciency, bu p ac ices less
en i onmen ally iendly
E iciency inc eases in some coun ies, (some)
indus ies play an impo an ole
Low e iciency, en i onmen al iendliness igno ed
En i onmen al awa eness and
engagemen
High Medium-low High Low
En i onmen al managemen Ecosys em-based ma ine and ishe ies
managemen o Bal ic Sea, wi h s ong
sec o al in eg a ion
Ecosys em-based ishe ies managemen , bu
wi h weak sec o al in eg a ion
Sec o s, species and egions managed mos ly in
sepa a ion
Op imisa ion o esou ce use o economic
de elopmen
Fishe ies go e nance Combina ion o op-down and bo om-up Ac o s who gene a e economic g ow h can
in luence
Some i ms and ac o ies engage e ec i ely, bu ee
ide s exis
Top-down egula ion om na ion s a es
Food consump ion Low-mea die s wi h emphasis on egional
b ands. Demand o he ing p oduc s high
Mea in ensi e die s, cheap p oduc s om
global ma ke . Demand o he ing p oduc s a
cu en low le el
Di ided be ween consume s making economic s.
g een and heal hy choices. Demand o he ing
p oduc s inc eases
Few na ional p oduc s domina e, mea in ensi e
die s, demand only o op p eda o ish species,
less o he ing p oduc s
Dimensions o sus ainabili y Balance be ween all dimensions Economy domina es, bu o he s a e also
acknowledged
En i onmen al and social sus ainabili y by hose
who can a o d i
A emp s owa ds economic and social
sus ainabili y wi hin coun ies
Economic de elopmen Challenge o c ea e g een g ow h Global economy Une en Na ional economies
Key p oblem Reac ions o s akeholde s who do no sha e
g een alues
Pa h dependency and limi ed capaci y o
ans o ma ion
P oblems wi h en i onmen al (in)jus ice Lack o coope a ion be ween coun ies
In e na ional ela ions Global coope a ion o g een u u es Main ocus on he EU and egional
collabo a ion, bu in e na ional collabo a ion
also wo ks
EU weakens, bila e al collabo a ion in he egion and
Eu ope, poo ela ions o elsewhe e
No collabo a ion egionally and globally, he EU
becomes obsole e
S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
204

ma ke s o en i onmen ally iendly p oduc s o luxu y p oduc s.
The e o e, he e is li le incen i e o he na ional go e nance sys ems
and ci il socie y o b and he ing p oduc s. Howe e , in his scena io,
inc easing ( ish) ood sel -su iciency a he na ional le el becomes a
p io i y. The e o e, he use o he ing as eed in aquacul u e inc eases,
he eby also inc easing he con ibu ion o Bal ic he ing ishe ies o
ood secu i y indi ec ly.
Dynamics 3: C ea e access o EU ma ke s in he “Inequali y” sce-
na io
The ecommenda ion may seem o lead o be e ou comes o many
s akeholde s, bu also has side e ec s and nega i e impac s o o he
s akeholde s. In he “Inequali y” scena io, he consump ion o Bal ic
he ing will inc ease in he egion due o g owing demand o local and
sus ainable ood p oduc s. Howe e , due o he low en o cemen powe
o he EU, he e is no egion-wide sys em in place o ensu e ha he
he ing en e ing he ma ke is sa e o ea o ha su icien in o ma ion
is p o ided o he consume s abou he isks and bene i s o he ing
consump ion. As a esul , he ing ha is likely o exceed he maximum
allowable dioxin le el can also be placed on he ma ke . While some
coun ies al eady ha e a isk managemen sys em in place o la ge
he ing, o he s do no . This implies ha he heal h bene i s and isks a e
unequally dis ibu ed in he Bal ic Sea egion be ween he coun ies. In
some coun ies, consume s a e in o med abou he po en ial isks e-
la ed o Bal ic he ing consump ion and in o he s he inc eased use o
he ing in his scena io may ha e nega i e heal h impac s on people,
especially isk g oups i hey consume Bal ic he ing in g ea quan i ies.
The e o e, side e ec s and ade-o s ela ed o ecommenda ions may
eme ge, and p obably in di e en ways unde di e en explo a o y
scena ios.
Dynamics 4: Gaining access o global ma ke s and a ge ing small
he ing in he “business-as-usual” scena io.
The no ma i e ecommenda ion may wo k in a ce ain scena io, bu
ha e di e gen implica ions o di e en s akeholde g oups. Dynamics
3 conside ed inequali ies wi hin he coun ies whe e he he ing is
caugh and consumed; he e we poin ou implica ions o ce ain no -
ma i e ecommenda ion o di e en coun ies, unc ioning wi h
Table 2
Summa y o he six ecommenda ions on how o inc ease he use o Bal ic he ing as ood, iden i ying who should do wha .
Recommenda ions Who and how The sub- a ge
1. De elop he Bal ic he ing b and
o inc ease a ac i eness o Bal ic he ing p oduc s
- Fo mal ishe ies go e nance sys em (i.e. he EU and na ional decision-make s and
au ho i ies) suppo s he ishing indus y in he p oduc ion o adi ional and new
endy p oduc s made o bo h small and la ge he ing.
- Fishing indus y collabo a es wi h ci il socie y and esea che s o p o ide in o ma ion
on he sus ainabili y o he s ock and whe he he ish is sa e o ea o he ea ing
ecommenda ions apply (labelling as ma ke ing ool).
- C oss-sec o al collabo a ion o imp o e he o e all image o he Bal ic Sea.
C oss-cu ing
2. P oduc ion o ishmeal and oil o human
consump ion
o gain access o he ishmeal and oil ood ma ke
- EU decision-make s impose equal quali y s anda ds o p oduc s de eloped in he EU
and impo ed ou side he EU by emo ing he EU egula ion banning he use o Bal ic
ish in ish oil o human consump ion.
- Fishing indus y esponds o he mega end o enhancing human heal h h ough ish-
ela ed p oduc s by de eloping a ma ke o ishmeal and oil ood p oduc s made o
Bal ic he ing. Fishmeal and oil p oduce s es ablish sepa a e p oduc ion lines o ood
in ended as ishmeal and oil, and de elop high-quali y ish oil om he ing.
- Ci il socie y, ishe ies manage s, esea che s and ishing indus y collabo a e o ge
ce i ica ions and labelling.
- Resea che s p o ide s udies ela ing o quali y, moni o ing and heal h.
C oss-cu ing
3. Use he eed di ec ed sha e o he ca ch and by-
p oduc s om ood p ocessing in aquacul u e
o maximise he con ibu ion o he ing o ood secu i y
- Fo mal ishe ies go e nance sys em en o ces and suppo s he use o eed-di ec ed
sha e o he ca ch, la ge non-complian he ing and by-p oduc s om ood p ocessing as
eed in aquacul u e.
- Fishing indus y and managemen collabo a e o de elop so ing, p ocessing and
dis ibu ion.
- Ci il socie y, ishe ies manage s, esea che s and ishing indus y collabo a e o ge
ce i ica ions and labelling in o de o inc ease he alue and a ac i eness o Bal ic
he ing eed.
C oss-cu ing
4. Ta ge ishe y owa ds small he ing
o gain access o he EU ma ke
- The o mal go e nance sys em suppo s inno a i e ishing me hods a ge ing small
dioxin- ee he ing, en o ces so ing o he ca ch and ensu es ha only small he ing
en e s he ma ke unless o he wise indica ed.
- Fishing indus y oge he wi h he ci il socie y campaign o p omo e he consump ion
o heal hy local ish. La ge he ing is used as eed in aquacul u e.
- S udies o assess a eas om which so ing is needed and hei pe cen ages.
Reducing he dioxin con en
in he ing
5. C ea e access o he EU ma ke o Bal ic he ing
o espond o he CFP objec i e o inc eased sea ood
sel -su iciency and a ailabili y in he EU
- The o mal go e nance sys em suppo s p oduc de elopmen and b anding, and
gua an ees ha p oduc s en e ing he ma ke a e complian wi h he EU egula ion o
al e na i ely amend he egula ion o allow access o la ge he ing o he EU ma ke
and p o ide ea ing ecommenda ions o isk g oups.
- Fishing indus y in es s in de elopmen and ma ke ing o new p oduc s as well as
p omo ing adi ional p oduc s.
- Ci il socie y de elops image o local, heal hy and sus ainable p oduc s and pa icipa es
in dissemina ion and ad e isemen o he p oduc s.
- Heal h s udies o imp o e unde s anding o he bene i s and isks o ea ing he ing.
Inc ease ma ke s o Bal ic
he ing in EU
6. C ea e access o he global ma ke
o espond o g owing global demand o ish
- EU and na ional au ho i ies ensu e ha he ish en e ing he global ma ke is sa e o ea
o ea ing ecommenda ions a e p o ided. They also os e good ela ionships wi h o he
coun ies.
- Fishing indus y c ea es new endy p oduc s, de elops exis ing ma ke s and
dis ibu ion channels, and looks o new ma ke oppo uni ies. Fishing indus y
collabo a es wi h ci il socie y o ge ecolabels and ce i ica ions.
- Ci il socie y has a key ole in p omo ing he image and b and o Bal ic he ing.
- Ma ke , heal h and socio-cul u al alue s udies needed o suppo ac ion.
Inc ease expo o he ing
p oduc s ou side EU
S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
205
di e en logics and d i e s. The wo kshop pa icipan s d ew om hei
pas expe iences, and poin ed ou ha he dioxin con en o he ing is
no an issue when he ish is sold o Russia o human con-
sump ion— he cu en sale ban ela es solely o poli ical dis-
ag eemen s—whe eas China, a po en ially la ge buye o he ing, is
mo e conscious o he heal h isks ela ed o dioxins. Thus, he ishe ies
sec o migh ensu e ha he ish en e ing he Chinese ma ke is sa e o
ea , i.e. by placing small he ing on he Chinese ma ke , while Russian
consume s con inue o be exposed o dioxin isks due o he lack o
na ional and in e na ional sa e y egula ions. Fu he mo e, he e would
be no economic incen i es o change his logic. The e o e, a ge ing
small he ing in he business-as-usual scena io is likely o be ishe ies
dependen cha ac e ised by he di ide be ween hose a ge ing Chinese
ma ke s by ca ching small he ing, and hose ocusing a he on
quan i y sold as a bulk p oduc o Russia.
Dynamics 5: Gaining access o he EU ma ke and a ge ing small
he ing in he “ ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y” scena io
The no ma i e ecommenda ions may also link o each o he . He e
we add ess a case whe e wo o mo e ecommenda ions will mu ually
ein o ce each o he , leading o a s ong basis o he ecommenda ions
wi hin an explo a o y scena io. In he “T ans o ma ion o sus ain-
abili y” scena io, EU policymake s will open a Eu opean ma ke o
Bal ic he ing and, a he same ime, consume s choose and suppo
sus ainable he ing p oduc s. The e o e, in ha scena io, policymaking
and ci izen and consume beha iou ma ch each o he . On he o he
hand, in his scena io, ends o he p ecau iona y p inciple, in eg a ed
and ecosys em-based ishe ies managemen and demand o en-
i onmen ally iendly p oduc s will p omo e he de elopmen o no el
p oduc s om small dioxin- ee he ing, he eby p omo ing also size-
selec i e ishing and so ing he ca ch. This leads o ishe ies s a egies
also o ma ch wi h policies and consume beha iou .
Dynamics 6: Fishmeal and oil o human consump ion in he
“T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism” scena io
Dynamics 6 add esses a si ua ion whe e a ecommenda ion o
ce ain s akeholde g oups unde a speci ic explo a o y scena io wo ks
only pa ially, and in o de o wo k needs o be suppo ed by o he
ac o s o policies ha a e no likely in he gi en scena io. In he
“T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism” scena io, na ional subsidies and in-
cen i es will exis o und in es men s o p oduce ishmeal and oil o
human consump ion. Howe e , in ha scena io, due o slow economic
g ow h, ishe ies ha e limi ed unds and he e o e, unless he in es -
men s a e ully subsidised, i is unlikely ha in es men s o high-
quali y p oduc s a e made.
5. Discussion
In his Discussion sec ion, we de elop heo e ically ele an as-
sump ions, which a e based on he six key dynamics be ween no ma i e
backcas ing ecommenda ions and explo a o y scena ios ha we e
iden i ied in Sec ion 4.3.
5.1. Re e se dynamics
The no ma i e ecommenda ions iden i ied in backcas ing may ac-
ualise in some scena ios, bu s ill no lead o desi able e ec s due o
o he dynamics in a gi en scena io. The e o e, i is essen ial ha he
implica ions o a ious d i e s appa en in scena ios should be checked
agains he ecommenda ions as some o he d i e s may c ea e “ e e se
dynamics”, nulli ying he e ec i eness o ecommenda ions seemingly
wo kable in speci ic explo a o y scena ios (c. . Pome oy e al., 2016).
5.2. Subs i u ion
The di e si y o in e -connec ed go e nance measu es has been
iden i ied as a p ope y o social-ecological sys ems ha inc eases e-
silience (Jones e al., 2013). Rela edly, we ound ha ce ain e-
commenda ions may no ac ualise in a ce ain scena io, bu he e may
be o he de elopmen s in he scena io ha subs i u e he ecommended
ac ion. The e o e, some ecommenda ions may no wo k in ce ain
scena ios, bu de ailed analysis can lead o inding al e na i e ways o
achie ing he no ma i e a ge in o he ways (see Go don, 2015). The
subs i u ion ep esen s a cons uc i e al e na i e o deeming ha some
no ma i e ecommenda ions jus canno wo k in ce ain explo a o y
scena ios. Fo example, an Vlie and Kok (2015) ha e analysed a se o
ecommenda ions unde ou explo a o y scena ios p o iding a possi-
bili y o iden i y subs i u ing ways o each he a ge unde speci ic
scena ios.
5.3. Risky easons
The explo a o y scena ios may seem o hal he p oposed e-
commenda ions bu simila de elopmen s may eme ge o al e na i e
easons ha , howe e , ha e di e en impac s, including isks and ne-
ga i e side e ec s (e.g. Nel, 2015). The “Risky easons” dynamic is close
o ha o “Subs i u ion” bu s esses ha i de elopmen s a ise om
al e na i e easons, hey may also ha e al e na i e nega i e side e -
ec s. The e o e, i is no enough o map whe he ce ain e-
commenda ions would wo k in a ce ain scena io, bu o examine how
he ecommenda ions could wo k in a way ha can ealise bene i s
and/o minimise isks also o hose s akeholde s in an in e io posi ion
(Fabinyi e al., 2015).
5.4. Unique ealisa ion
Some explo a o y scena io logics may suppo ac ualisa ion o he
ecommenda ion ha ing bene i s o some s akeholde s, while a he
same ime he ecommenda ion will no ake place ega ding o he
ac o s (e.g. Fi zpa ick e al., 2017). The no ma i e ecommenda ion
can wo k o some ac o s in a ce ain scena io, bu o he ac o s may
h i e unde he same scena io wi h di e en and e en opposing logic.
Thus, he no ma i e ecommenda ions should be sensi i e also o sol e
he unique challenges and be open o p omo e mul iple s a egies as
success ul unde an explo a o y scena io ac oss s akeholde g oups.
5.5. Mu ual ein o cemen
The e may be sel - ein o cing eedback ha makes he e-
commenda ions mo e obus in ce ain scena ios (see Bundy e al.,
2017;Gu ié ez and Mo gan, 2017). He e, wo o mo e likely e-
commenda ions will mu ually ein o ce each o he , leading o a s ong
basis o de elopmen suppo ed by he ecommenda ions wi hin an
explo a o y scena io. Explo a o y scena io logics may gi e ise o a -
ious mu ually ein o cing de elopmen s, p omo ing he simul aneous
wo kabili y o nume ous ecommenda ions.
5.6. Doub ul suppo
E en i indi idual ecommenda ions a ge ing a single s akeholde
g oup would wo k in some scena ios, hey may need suppo om o he
ac o s, which is no p obable in he gi en explo a o y scena io (see
Bodin and C ona, 2009;S öh e al., 2014). The doub ul suppo con-
cep add esses he unce ain y o a ious ac o s o wo k o he e-
commenda ion in he gi en explo a o y scena io.
6. Conclusion
This pape has iden i ied ecommenda ions on how Bal ic he ing
S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
206
can be used signi ican ly mo e as ood in he u u e in o de o p o ide a
sus ainable sou ce o p o ein and nu i ious ood. These ecommenda-
ions we e analysed agains ou explo a o y scena ios. This pape has
p oposed ad ancemen s o scena io li e a u e by heo ising u he he
ques ion on HOW no ma i e ecommenda ions unc ion ac oss ex-
plo a o y scena ios. To heo ise he HOW ques ion, we iden i ied six
assump ions on he dynamics be ween no ma i e ecommenda ions
and explo a o y scena ios. We emphasise he need o simul aneously
analyse mul iple 1) explo a o y scena ios; 2) se s o no ma i e e-
commenda ions ins ead o single ecommenda ion; 3) implica ions o
mul iple d i e s on single ecommenda ions; 4) implica ions o e-
commenda ions o mul iple s akeholde s; and 5) syne gies and ade-
o s be ween ecommenda ions. These no es need o be aken in o ac-
coun also in u u e me hodologies o add ess he HOW ques ion.
While ou analysis o e s a cons uc i e depa u e o u he de elop
he scena io me hodologies, u u e esea ch is also needed. Fi s ly, he
pa icipa o y aspec o ou me hod could be expanded. While he six
no ma i e ecommenda ions we e co-p oduced wi h s akeholde s, he
ways in which hese ela e o he ou explo a o y scena ios we e
iden i ied by he au ho s o he p esen pape . Howe e , being able o
assess how a ecommenda ion wo ks in di e se explo a o y scena io
logics equi es in-dep h unde s anding o he scena ios. The e o e,
adding a pa icipa o y aspec would include “a isk o pa icipan s
being o e whelmed by he complexi y o he choices hey a e being
asked o make” (Robinson e al., 2011: 756), equi ing mo e han one
wo kshop o build owne ship o he scena ios (see Cai ns e al., 2016;
an Vlie and Kok, 2015). Secondly, he six iden i ied assump ions need
o be es ed in o he cases. Thi dly, we de ached he six no ma i e e-
commenda ions om longe pa hs iden i ied in he pa icipa o y
backcas ing exe cise. The nex s ep would be o s a om complex
ecommenda ion pa hs and hei ela ionships o explo a o y scena ios
a he han om indi idual ecommenda ions. Howe e , his simpli i-
ca ion was needed o his pape o p o ide baseline assump ions on he
HOW ques ion. Fou hly, he p esen ed explo a o y scena ios need
mo e de ail wi h ega d o hei speci ic ele ance and ealisa ion e-
ga ding Bal ic he ing. Finally, he combina ion and u he de elop-
men o scena io me hodologies is needed o be e en ision wha is
plausible in a con ex ual sense, and how people could eac o hose
plausible u u es by ope a ional ac ions (Bou geois e al., 2017). To
assess he ac ual impac o he use o pa icipa o y scena ios o in lu-
ence go e nance, ollow-up s udies a e needed (Quis e al., 2011). By
explo ing he al e na i e u u es, we can be be e equipped o cope
wi h u u e changes and p oac i ely de elop a p ac ical means o make
ou wo ld mo e sus ainable.
Acknowledgemen s
This pape is a con ibu ion om he BONUS GOHERR p ojec
(In eg a ed go e nance o Bal ic he ing and salmon s ocks in ol ing
s akeholde s), and i has ecei ed unding om BONUS (A 185),
unded join ly by he EU and he Academy o Finland. The au ho s wish
o hank all he s akeholde s who pa icipa ed in he wo kshop as well
as he pee - e iewe s o hei cons uc i e commen s.
Appendix 1. Scena io-speci ic dynamics ega ding he six ecommenda ions o inc ease he use o he ing as ood
T ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y Business-as-usual Inequali y T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism
Recommenda ion 1: B and he p oduc s
The e will be bo h EU and na ional sup-
po sys ems o inno a ions, p oduc
de elopmen , b anding, and ma -
ke ing. Due o o e all p oac i e a i-
udes owa ds he en i onmen , he e
will be consume demand o hese
p oduc s leading o new in es men s
ha inc ease he ing ca ch as ood.
Despi e he ini ially low egional demand o
he ing ood p oduc s, he e a e incen i es
and mo i a ion o in es in p oduc de el-
opmen , b anding and ma ke ing o gain
access o global ma ke s. In es men s ela e
mainly o he p omo ion o Bal ic he ing
use in ishmeal and oil p oduc ion.
Na ional incen i es a e sca ce. Howe e , due
o high demand o local and sus ainable ish
p oduc s, bo om-up local and bila e al in-
i ia i es o p oduc de elopmen , b anding
and ma ke ing eme ge, inc easing inequali y
in he ishe ies sec o ac oss he egion.
Limi ed mo i a ion o na ional incen i es
o de elop he he ing b and o human
consump ion as he demand o p oduce
eed o aquacul u e inc eases signi i-
can ly due o closed na ional ma ke s.
Recommenda ion 2: P oduc ion o ishmeal and oil o human consump ion
EU policymake s impose equal quali y s -
anda ds o ishmeal and oil p oduc s
p oduced in he EU and in o he cou-
n ies. This dec eases he EU ood m-
a ke s' dependence on impo ed p o-
duc s. In es men suppo o
inno a i e and sus ainable he ing p-
oduc s a e p o ided by na ion s a es,
and he e a e g owing ma ke s o h-
eal hy and en i onmen ally sus ain-
able p oduc s.
The e will be an economic incen i e o ish
ac o ies o adop no el echnologies o
de eloping luxu y ish oil p oduc s om
he ing. This compe es wi h cheape and
lowe -quali y p oduc s de eloped ou side o
he EU. Al hough he egional demand o
he ing ood is gene ally low, new luxu y
and high-quali y ishmeal and oil p oduc s
a e a ac i e o many in he egion and
globally.
The e will be no na ional o EU le el suppo
o de elop he p oduc ion o ishmeal and oil
p oduc s o human consump ion. Howe e ,
in some ac o ies, in es men s a e made
while o he s lack willingness and/o capa-
ci y o deal wi h he ela ed (economic)
isks. The p oduc s compe e wi h cheape
impo ed p oduc s, and only he ich can
a o d o buy local high-quali y ishmeal and
oil p oduc s.
Global mega end o heal hy ood will no
di use in a agmen ed wo ld.
In e na ional ma ke does no exis , bu
domes ic ishmeal and oil b ands o
human consump ion ha a e p omo ed
na ionally as pa o a heal hy die may
eme ge.
Recommenda ion 3: Use he eed-di ec ed sha e o he ca ch and by-p oduc s om ood p ocessing in aquacul u e
Owing o inc eased demand, he ing is u-
sed p ima ily o di ec human con-
sump ion and seconda ily o ishmeal
and oil p oduc ion. To mee he de-
mands o aquacul u e and o inc ease
sea ood sel -su iciency, by-p oduc s
o ood p ocessing a e used in aqua-
cul u e.
Due o low demand and a eac i e manage-
men app oach, he main s a egy o in-
c ease ood secu i y and sa e y is aquacul-
u e, and he e o e he majo i y o he ca ch
is used di ec ly o ishmeal and oil. The e is,
howe e , an economic incen i e o u ilise
by-p oduc s as well.
Aquacul u e is he main s a egy o ood
secu i y and sa e y due o al eady exis ing
in as uc u e. Despi e he inc eased use o
he ing o human consump ion, he e a e
only a ew local ini ia i es o u ilise by-
p oduc s.
Many coun ies use he ing p ima ily in
aquacul u e. Use o human consump ion
dec eases; howe e , in some a eas he by-
p oduc s a e used in ishmeal and oil o
maximise p o i and inc ease sel -su i-
ciency in aquacul u e p oduc ion.
Recommenda ion 4: Ta ge ishe y owa ds small he ing
Owing o p oac i e app oaches o man-
agemen , his p oposal will be imple-
men ed in a eas whe e maximum al-
lowable dioxin le els in Bal ic he ing
a e likely o be exceeded. New me h-
ods a e de eloped o implemen size-
selec i e ishing. The demand o he-
ing ood p oduc s in he egion is
Implemen a ion dependen on global isk
pe cep ions. I access o global ma ke s en-
ails ha he dioxin le els a e low, a ishe y
esponds o his by ensu ing ha he p o-
duc s expo ed mee he sa e y c i e ia.
Owing o as echnological de elopmen ,
new ishing me hods a e a ailable.
Heal hy and local die is alued so he e is
consume demand o dioxin- ee small he -
ing, bu due o lack o egional collabo a-
ion and weak ishe ies managemen , he
de elopmen and implemen a ion o new
ishing measu es is slow. Howe e , many
ishing companies so he ca ch o inc ease
Due o ine ec i e p oduc ion, eac i e
a i ude o en i onmen al p oblems, lack
o coope a ion be ween coun ies, and
economic incen i e, inno a i e ishing
me hods will no be de eloped. Size-se-
lec i e ishing and so ing o he ca ch
con inues o ake place in ce ain
S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209
207
high, and he e o e he majo i y o he
ca ch is consumed egionally.
he a ailabili y o small he ing o human
consump ion.
coun ies, e.g. Es onia, bu only on a small
scale due o low demand.
Recommenda ion 5: C ea e access o he EU ma ke o Bal ic he ing
The Eu opean ma ke is opened as EU p-
olicymake s p io i ise imp o ed sel -
su iciency. The e is a sys em in place
o ensu e ha he he ing en e ing he
ma ke is sa e o ea .
EU policymake s a e likely o open he
Eu opean ma ke o p omo e he iabili y o
he ishe ies sec o and ood sel -su iciency
as many o he pelagic s ocks ha e no ye
ully eco e ed. Risk managemen pe cep-
ions a e changed o allow he Membe
S a es o place all Bal ic he ing p oduc s on
he ma ke , p o ided ha consume s a e
in o med acco dingly, e.g. by using labelling
on whe he he ish p oduc exceeds he
maximum allowable dioxin le els.
The en o cemen powe o he EU is weak
and ade limi ed as many na ions a e e-
luc an o open hei ish ood ma ke s o
new p oduc s. In he Bal ic Sea egion,
howe e , ading o he ing ood p oduc s
inc eases o mee he g owing demand.
The e is no egional sys em in place o
ensu e he he ing en e ing he ma ke is
sa e o ea o labelled app op ia ely. This
means ha la ge he ing can also be sold on
he ma ke . Some local ini ia i es eme ge
ha aim o p o ide in o ma ion o consu-
me s.
The EU will b eak and he e will be
na ional p o ec ionis policies. Each
coun y manages he isks independen ly,
which yields a ying s a egies o he use
o la ge he ing. Howe e , since he de-
mand o he ing ood p oduc s is low,
la ge he ing is mos ly used in ishmeal
and oil p oduc ion, and poses no se ious
isk o human heal h.
Recommenda ion 6: C ea e access o he global ma ke s
C ea e ma ke sha e by p omo ing he b -
and, new p oduc s and by ensu ing -
ha he p oduc s a e sa e o ea . Owing
o inc eased awa eness o ood sa e y
issues globally, he demand o small
he ing exceeds ha o la ge.
Russia and Uk aine a e impo an buye s o
la ge he ing, whe eas ma ke sha e o
small dioxin- ee he ing is c ea ed in Asia.
The Bal ic Sea coun ies wo k oge he o
inc ease he olume a ailable o expo
ma ke s.
Al hough in e na ional collabo a ion is poo ,
he demand o ish p oduc s is high, which
means ha he e is demand o Bal ic he -
ing p oduc s. Howe e , he a emp s o gain
access o he impo an in e na ional ma -
ke s a e local, small-scale and sca e ed. This
leads o a e y ine icien expo scheme.
Owing o p o ec ionis ba ie s, he e is no
access o he global ma ke s in his sce-
na io.
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