Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios

Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/ ech o e Bal ic he ing o ood: Shades o g ey in how backcas ing ecommenda ions wo k ac oss explo a o y scena ios Simo Sa kki a,⁎ , Mia Pihlajamäki b,c,d a Cul u al An h opology, Facul y o Humani ies, PO Box 1000, 90014, Uni e si y o Oulu, Finland b Facul y o Managemen , Uni e si y o Tampe e, FI-33014 Tampe e, Finland c Ecosys ems and En i onmen Resea ch P og amme, Facul y o Biological and En i onmen al Sciences, Uni e si y o Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland d Wa e Resou ces and En i onmen al Enginee ing Resea ch G oup, P.O. Box 4300, 90014, Uni e si y o Oulu, Finland ABSTRACT Scena io me hods can be used o cope wi h u u e unce ain ies by en isioning plausible u u es and iden i ying pa hs o each desi able a ge s. The objec i e o his pape is o de elop no el p oposals e ealing gene alised dynamics on “HOW” he di e en no ma i e ecommenda ions can wo k unde di e en explo a o y scena ios. P e ious li e a u e has ocused mo e on de eloping me hods o in eg a ing no ma i e and explo a o y scena ios han on heo ising dynamics o he HOW ques ion. We examine his heo e ical ques ion ia a case s udy on po en ial u u es o use and go e nance o Bal ic he ing ca ch. The case s udy: 1) de elops ecommenda ions on how he use o Bal ic he ing as ood can be inc eased based on a pa icipa o y backcas ing wo kshop wi h ishe ies expe s; 2) iden i ies ou explo a o y scena ios on he u u e o Bal ic ishe ies go e nance based on a li e a u e e iew; 3) assesses how he ecommenda ions wo k unde ou al e na i e plausible u u es. We iden i y and discuss six gene alised dynamics answe ing he HOW ques ion. Toge he , hese s ess he need o analyse simul aneously mul iple d i e s, s akeholde s, explo a o y scena ios, no ma i e ecommenda ions, and syne gies and ic ions be ween ecommenda ions. This wo k con ibu es o capaci ies o cope wi h u u e changes and p oac i ely de elop p ac ical means o make ou wo ld mo e sus ainable. 1. In oduc ion How o make decisions unde u u e unce ain ies? This is a key ques ion, o example, o enhancing sus ainabili y in he age o p essing social and en i onmen al challenges. Scena io me hods a e one p omising and much used al e na i e o cope wi h complexi y and unce ain y and o enhance possibili ies o in o ming u u e sus ain- abili y (Ca lsen e al., 2013;Reilly and Willenbockel, 2010; an Vlie and Kok, 2015;Ve oo e al., 2014;Wilkinson e al., 2013;W igh e al., 2014). Scena ios can ac as a c ucial b idge be ween en i on- men al science and policy i hey succeed in o e coming he e en ion o p e ious agendas and knowledge (Sa kki e al., 2017). Scena ios can in luence policymaking by summa ising and syn hesising scien i ic knowledge in an unde s andable o ma (IPBES, 2016), and by enga- ging s akeholde s and policymake s in knowledge p oduc ion and in- c easing owne ship and use o he scena ios in p ac ice (Kok e al., 2007;O'B ien and Meadows, 2013). Howe e , limi ed up ake o sce- na io esul s is o en due o poo knowledge on whe he and how no ma i e ecommenda ions would wo k ac oss di e en explo a o y u u es (G een and Wea he head, 2014). Cho (2013) e iewed ech- nological o ecas ing li e a u e and p oposed ha combina ions o ex- plo a o y and no ma i e scena io app oaches ha e been among he mos in e es ing applica ions in he ield. Explo a o y scena ios desc ibe a ious al e na i e plausible u u es and a e commonly used in global en i onmen al assessmen s (e.g. MA, 2005; an Vuu en e al., 2012). Explo a o y scena ios a e no p ojec- ions o p edic ions, bu holis ic and schema ic desc ip ions o how he u u e may un old unde a logic amed by a ia ions in key un- ce ain ies and hei implica ions o he beha iou o selec ed d i e s. Explo a o y scena ios o en come in se s o wo o mo e, each o which ollows an in e nal logic and consis ency. They desc ibe how la ge-scale social, economic, en i onmen al, poli ical and ideological eali ies may change and in e ac in he u u e, leading o al e na i e plausible u- u es (Raskin e al., 2005;Wilkinson, 2009;Ve oo e al., 2014; Gallopín, 2015). Explo a o y scena ios ou line a ious plausible de- elopmen pa hs and hei consequences wi hou being policy-p e- sc ip i e (Kok e al., 2007). Thus, explo a o y scena ios a e good o add essing he impac s and implica ions o la ge-scale d i e s and ends, bu all sho in p oposing ac ual measu es ha could be used o achie e a desi able u u e. No ma i e a ge -seeking scena ios, such as hose done by pa ici- pa o y backcas ing me hods, can be used o help scien is s, decision- make s and o he s akeholde s o co-p oduce ecommenda ions and pa hs on how o achie e a desi able u u e poin o o a oid undesi ed u u es (Robinson, 2003;Robinson e al., 2011;Quis e al., 2011; Kishi a e al., 2017;Ve g ag and Quis , 2011;Wangel, 2011;Robinson h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. ech o e.2018.11.001 Recei ed 15 Decembe 2017; Recei ed in e ised o m 20 Sep embe 2018; Accep ed 1 No embe 2018 ⁎ Co esponding au ho . E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (S. Sa kki), [email p o ec ed] (M. Pihlajamäki). Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 A ailable online 17 No embe 2018 0040-1625/ © 2018 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie Inc. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/). T e al., 2011;Zimme mann e al., 2012). Backcas ing “in ol es wo king backwa ds om a pa icula desi ed u u e end-poin o se o goals o he p esen , in o de o de e mine he physical easibili y o ha u u e and he (policy) measu es ha would be equi ed o each ha poin .” (Robinson, 2003). The ou pu o a backcas ing exe cise is a se o conc e e ope a ional ac ions o di e en s akeholde s ha a e needed o each a desi able u u e. The downside o a ge -seeking scena ios is hei lack o a en ion o he la ge socie al con ex , which has e ec s on wha kinds o pa hs a e likely o e en possible, and wha kinds o no ma i e ecommenda ions will wo k in di e en kinds o u u es. To o e come hese p oblems, ecen esea ch has aimed o combine he wo ypes o scena ios in a ious ways o add ess how no ma i e p oposals would wo k ac oss di e se u u es (e.g. Kok e al., 2011; Miles ad e al., 2014; an Be kel and Ve bu g, 2012). The aim o such a combina ion is no o gi e me ely a snapsho o a pa icula u u e, bu o p opose ans o ma ion pa hways wi hin a sys emic desc ip ion o al e na i e u u e s a es (see Sa i as and Nug oho, 2012). The combi- na ion can assess how e ec i e and obus ce ain ac ions o policy measu es de ined by backcas ing a e, by delibe a ing whe he and how hey wo k unde di e en al e na i e explo a o y scena ios. Explo a o y and backcas ing scena ios ha e been in eg a ed in a ious ways. In eg a i e and pa icipa o y me hods ha e been used, ocusing on he iden i ica ion o no ma i e so-called “ obus e- commenda ions” ha wo k unde many plausible u u e wo lds (Kok e al., 2011; an Vlie and Kok, 2015). S a e al. (2016) ha e used esea che -d i en explo a o y scena ios as a backg ound o pa icipa- o y backcas ing. Ma low e al. (2015) c ea ed explo a o y scena ios, and used policy decisions and plans ha he local communi y is con- side ing o cap u e he no ma i e iews. Then pa icipa o y assessmen was conduc ed o unde s and how he explo a o y scena ios may a ec he abili y o he communi y o achie e hei no ma i e objec i es o he u u e. G een and Wea he head (2014) ha e applied quan i a i e me hods by iden i ying di e se u u es h ough p obabilis ic scena io me hods and hen using decision-c i e ia o calcula e he ou come o no ma i e ecommenda ions in each u u e. Also Kingsbo ough e al. (2017) u ilise a p obabilis ic model o quan i y es ima es o e ec i e- ness o a ange o no ma i e adap a ion op ions unde di e en u u e si ua ions. The in eg a ed “app oach shows high po en ial, bu as he me hodology is in i s in ancy, mo e esea ch is needed” ( an Vlie and Kok, 2015: 43). The objec i e o he p esen pape is o de elop no el p oposals e ealing gene alised dynamics on “HOW” he di e en no ma i e ac- ions can wo k unde di e en explo a o y scena ios. This has heo e- ical alue, as p e ious li e a u e has no ocused much on heo ising wha kind o dynamics be ween no ma i e ecommenda ions ac oss di e se u u es may be, bu ocused mo e on de eloping me hods o in eg a ing no ma i e and explo a o y scena ios. We examine his heo e ical ques ion ia a case s udy on po en ial u u es o use and go e nance o Bal ic he ing ca ch. The case s udy: 1) de elops ecommenda ions on how he use o Bal ic he ing as ood can be inc eased based on a pa icipa o y backcas ing wo kshop wi h ishe ies expe s; 2) iden i ies ou explo a o y scena ios c ucial o di e gen al e na i es o use and go e n Bal ic he ing based on a li - e a u e e iew; 3) assesses how he ecommenda ions wo k unde he ou explo a o y scena ios based on a desk s udy. The empi ical alue is o explo e how he use o a sus ainable p o ein sou ce, such as Bal ic he ing, can be inc eased, ha ing posi i e en i onmen al and heal h impac s. This con ibu es sol ing he chal- lenge o eeding he g owing human popula ion wi h nu i ious ood (FAO, 2009;God ay e al., 2010;Mande s e al., 2012;UN, 25 Sep embe , 2015). Cu en ly, ish accoun s o app oxima ely 15% o he o al animal p o ein consumed by humans (FAO, 2016a,b; Ma ch 2016) and he demand o sea ood con inues o inc ease (FAO, 2014; Thu s an and Robe s, 2014). Bal ic he ing is one o he la ges com- me cial ca ches in he Bal ic Sea and has g ea po en ial o be used signi ican ly mo e han cu en ly as a sus ainable sou ce o p o ein o people (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018). Howe e , complex social-ecological dynamics and unce ain ies, including high dioxin le els in Bal ic he - ing, luc ua ions in consume demand, access o he EU and global ish ma ke , and he abili y o he ishing sec o o deal wi h he abo e- men ioned challenges, will a ec whe he Bal ic he ing will be used inc easingly as ood o no (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018). The pape will con inue by p o iding a b ie backg ound o he case o Bal ic he ing, ollowed by a no e on ma e ials and me hods. The Resul s sec ion ske ches ou explo a o y scena ios based on li e a u e and policy sc eening, iden i ies ecommenda ions o inc easing he use o Bal ic he ing as ood based on he pa icipa o y backcas ing me hod, and p o ides six examples o how he ecommenda ions wo k in each o he ou explo a o y scena ios. Based on he six examples, we iden i y gene alised dynamics on how he no ma i e ecommenda ions link o explo a o y scena ios. We end wi h some b ie conclusions, especially iden i ying a need o subsequen wo k on he HOW ques ion. 2. Challenges in he use o Bal ic he ing as ood Bal ic he ing is one o he key comme cial ca ch species in he Bal ic Sea in e ms o olume, bu i s use o human consump ion is low and he majo i y o he ca ch is used as eed in u and ish a ming (ICES, 2015a,b). The e a e many easons o his. Fi s ly, dioxin le els in la ge (o e 17 cm) Bal ic he ing a e o en likely o exceed he al- lowed maximum le el and he e o e he sale o he ish o di ec and indi ec human consump ion in he EU is es ic ed (Regula ion (EU) No 1259/2011; Commission Recommenda ion (EU) 2016/688). Finland and Sweden, which a e esponsible o ishing o e 60% o he o al ca ch (ICES, 2015a,b), ha e an exemp ion o his ule and can sell all la ge he ing domes ically, while in o he EU coun ies only he ing ha is no likely o exceed he maximum allowable dioxin le el can be placed on he ma ke . Secondly, he use o Bal ic he ing o human consump ion has dec eased owing o low domes ic demand and poo access o expo ma ke s (Pihlajamäki e al., 2016). Domes ic demand o adi ional he ing p oduc s has dec eased (Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland, 2015), especially among younge gene a ions (Mononen and U ala, 2010), which implies ha no el p oduc s a - ac i e o a ious consume g oups would be needed o inc ease he ma ke s (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018). Thi dly, he majo i y o he ing lee s a ge he ing o indus ial pu poses (Lassen, 2011). In Finland, o example, a ound wo hi ds o he ca ch has been, since he 1980s, used o eed u animals (Se älä, 1996;Se älä e al., 2016). Fou hly, he use o he ing o ishmeal and oil p oduc ion has inc eased as he e- mo al o dioxins om he ishmeal and oil du ing he p oduc ion p o- cess has become economically iable. As a esul , he e is newly- ound in e es in in es ing in ishmeal and oil p oduc ion plan s in he Bal ic Sea egion (Se älä e al., 2016). The bene i s o using mo e Bal ic he ing as ood a e many. Cu en ly, he EU ish ma ke depends hea ily on impo ed p oduc s and he e o e he Eu opean Commission has called o imp o ed ish and sea ood sel -su iciency and a ailabili y (Regula ion (EC) No 1380/ 2013). While he Common Fishe ies Policy (CFP) sees aquacul u e as he main s a egy o inc easing ood secu i y, small pelagic species, such as Bal ic he ing, also ha e a g ea con ibu ion po en ial o in- c easing he use o locally p oduced ish p oduc s (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018;Tacon and Me ian, 2009). The bene i s o he ishing sec o e- la e o imp o ed social and economic iabili y, which is based on he di e ences in he ma ke alue o he ing sold o ood e sus eed. Fu he mo e, a shi om u animal eed o ood di ec ed ishing p omises new jobs in he ishing sec o ela ing o, o example, so ing and p ocessing (see e.g. Se älä e al., 2016). F om he pe spec i e o human heal h, a ecen isk-bene i analysis s udy sugges s ha , apa om he isk g oups, he bene i s o Bal ic he ing consump ion o human heal h ou weigh he po en ial isks ela ing o dioxin exposu e (Tuomis o e al., 2015). S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 201 3. Ma e ial and me hods To answe he HOW ques ion (how no ma i e ecommenda ions wo k ac oss explo a o y scena ios), a h ee s ep me hodology was used (Fig. 1). The me hodology o answe he HOW ques ion needs a se o explo a o y scena ios and no ma i e ecommenda ions in o de o connec he wo. In gene al, he scena io de elopmen is a p ocess in- cluding mo e o less pa icipa o y app oaches, and no ma i e s. ex- plo a o y app oaches. O en he scena io me hods a e no based on a single app oach o answe he HOW ques ion, bu ely on mixed me hods combining pa icipa o y and esea ch-d i en s a egies, and explo a o y and no ma i e app oaches (S a e al., 2016). To answe he HOW ques ion, explo a o y scena ios ha e o en p eceded backcas ing me hods, leading o he in eg a ion o he wo ( an Vlie and Kok, 2015). This enables scanning no ma i e e- commenda ions agains di e se explo a o y scena ios by he s ake- holde s in he backcas ing exe cise. He e we u ilised a di e en s a egy: we i s had he pa icipa o y backcas ing wo kshop, hen we de ined he explo a o y scena ios by esea ch-d i en s a egy, and i- nally combined he wo wi h a desk s udy. Ha ing he esul s o he pa icipa o y wo kshop as a backg ound, we di ec ed ou explo a o y scena ios o be ele an o he objec i e o inc ease he use o Bal ic he ing as ood de ined by he wo kshop pa icipan s. This enabled us o examine he HOW ques ion wi h an empi ically in o med desk s udy. Fu he me hodological de elopmen would include adding pa icipa- o y aspec s also o he elabo a ion o he explo a o y scena ios and o delibe a e he HOW ques ion in a pa icipa o y wo kshop se ing. 3.1. Backcas ing me hod The backcas ing me hod is o en buil on he p emise ha by wo king backwa ds he e will be less hinking han usual om he cu en s a us quo and people migh disco e ha he e is much mo e possible han was i s hough . The backcas ing me hod is o en pa - icipa o y and engages s akeholde s since i is impo an o co-p oduce no ma i e p oposals wi h a ious socie al implica ions (Robinson e al., 2011;Wangel, 2011;Ve g ag and Quis , 2011. The backcas ing me hod was applied as pa o a wo-day s akeholde wo kshop on he dioxin p oblem o Bal ic he ing, which was a anged in Copenhagen in Feb ua y 2016 (Pihlajamäki e al., 2016, 2018). Ele en expe s, ep esen ing ishe men, p oduce s, adminis a ion, esea che s and NGOs, om ou Bal ic Sea coun ies (Finland, Sweden, Es onia and Denma k) we e engaged o iden i y pa hs o a desi able u u e. The me hod s a ed wi h he wo kshop pa icipan s iden i ying a desi able u u e o Bal ic he ing, which was o use mo e Bal ic he ing as ood han cu en ly. This desi able u u e was di ided in o h ee sub- a ge s ha could enable he ac ualisa ion o he o e all objec i e: 1) 35% o he o al Bal ic he ing ca ch o be used as ood in Bal ic Sea coun ies by 2040; 2) 40% o he o al Bal ic he ing ca ch o be ex- po ed and consumed as ood; and 3) he dioxin le el in Bal ic he ing used as ood o dec ease o a sa e le el. The di ision in o sub- a ge s was done by ou esea ch eam o p o ide a clea a ionale o pa i- cipa o y backcas ing wo king backwa ds om hese no ma i e u u e a ge s owa ds he p esen . The g oup was di ided in o h ee sub- g oups in which each g oup add essed one o he h ee sub- a ge s o inc easing he use o Bal ic he ing ca ch o ood. The g oup wo k was scheduled o 2.5 h in he agenda. The g oups i s iden i ied se s o de elopmen pa hs wo king om he sub- a ge s back o p esen . We had p epa ed a empla e wi h i e-yea in e als om he p esen up o 2040, bu he g oups a he discussed he sequence o he e en s han using he miles one yea s. The bene i o his was o be able o con- cen a e on whe he some ac ions could be done al eady now in he p esen yea , o i he e a e pa hs o ac ions ha would be enabled only la e a e o he ac ions. The downside was ha he inal pa hs did no include miles one yea s. The g oups also iden i ied he ole o di e en go e nance ac o s in he implemen a ion o he ac ions. Finally, he g oups we e supposed o assess he impac s o he ac ions on di e en managemen objec i es (social, ecological, en i onmen al) e ealing po en ial ade-o s associa ed o he iden i ied pa hs. Howe e , he de elopmen pa hs u ned ou o be qui e complex and only one g oup comple ed he iden i ica ion o po en ial ade-o s, while he o he wo inished wi h discussion on s akeholde -speci ic ac ions. The iden i ied and de ailed pa hs including chains o ac ions o each he h ee ob- jec i es a e published elsewhe e (Pihlajamäki e al., 2018). 3.2. A desk s udy o iden i y explo a o y scena ios We u ilised esea ch-d i en me hods o c ea ing explo a o y sce- na ios on gene al u u e s a es o Bal ic Sea ishe ies go e nance, be- cause ou esea ch ocus was o examine he dioxin challenge, and i s Fig. 1. Th ee-s ep me hodological p ocess loca ed in scena io me hods ma ix including pa icipa o y and esea che -d i en scena io wo k, and explo a o y and no ma i e scena ios. S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 202 ela ionship o using Bal ic he ing as ood. The e o e, he explo a o y scena ios p o ided necessa y gene al backg ounds desc ibing al e - na i e u u es, in which he no ma i e goal o inc easing he use o he ing as ood unc ions di e en ly. Also ecen explo a o y scena ios on he Bal ic Sea we e a ailable (e.g. WWF, 2012), and hey we e ine- uned by checking hei consis ency wi h la ge -scale explo a o y sce- na io logics (Eu opean Commission, 2012;K iegle e al., 2012;MA, 2005;O'Neill e al., 2017). An es ablished scena io building me hod (Wade, 2012) was used o explo e he al e na i e socie al condi ions o Bal ic Sea ishe ies and en i onmen al go e nance in 2040. The me hodology o c ea e explo a o y scena ios included he ol- lowing phases: 1) iden i ica ion o d i e s, 2) iden i ica ion o wo key unce ain ies ha a ec how a ious d i e s migh de elop, 3) c ea ing s o ylines e lec ing ou scena ios sepa a ed by he wo unce ain ies by e iewing ecen scena io li e a u e (Eu opean Commission, 2012; K iegle e al., 2012;MA, 2005;O'Neill e al., 2017;WWF, 2012), and 4) ou lining hei speci ic ele ance o Bal ic Sea ishe ies go e nance. A common app oach in c ea ing explo a o y scena ios is o de ine wo key unce ain ies sepa a ing ou scena ios ha beha e di e gen ly in espec o he key unce ain ies ( an Vuu en e al., 2012). We chose he ex en o human impac on he Bal ic Sea en i onmen and he ex en o policy and go e nance in eg a ion as key unce ain ies ha ame he logics o ou explo a o y scena ios. These a e simila o he WWF (2012) scena ios in which go e nance in eg a ion and ecological oo - p in a e used as key unce ain ies. 3.3. A desk-s udy o combine explo a o y and backcas ing scena ios Fo he pu poses o his pape , he au ho s ex ac ed six e- commenda ions om he backcas ing pa hs ocusing on ques ions o who should do wha o inc ease he consump ion o he ing as ood. The six ecommenda ions we e iden i ied so ha hey include ac ions by a ious s akeholde s, and co e all h ee sub- a ge s. The esul s o he combina ion o explo a o y and backcas ing sce- na ios ou line how he six ecommenda ions o inc ease he use o Bal ic he ing as ood gained om he backcas ing exe cise wo k ac oss he ou explo a o y scena ios. We hen assessed how each o he six ecommenda ions would wo k in he ou di e gen wo lds he ex- plo a o y scena io desc ibe, p o iding us wi h 24 examples. Induc i e con en analysis was used o clus e he 24 examples unde six gen- e alised p oposals on how backcas ing ecommenda ions can wo k in he explo a o y scena ios. Induc i e con en analysis can help o build a hypo hesis and assump ions on heo e ical ques ions whe e heo y is limi ed (T acy, 2012), such as is he case he e. We p esen a summa y o all 24 examples in he appendix (Appendix 1), bu chose he six mos in e es ing examples ha a e e- le an o iden i ying heo e ically in e es ing dynamics ela ed o he “HOW” ques ion. The selec ion was based on assessmen o he un- de lying logic o he 24 examples in e ms o wha kind o dynamics o HOW hey e eal. To build no el heo e ical assump ions on he HOW ques ion, we conside i a c edible choice o no include all examples, bu jus hose con ibu ing di ec ly o ou Discussion sec ion. In he Discussion sec ion, we de elop heo e ically ele an assump ions, which can in o m u u e wo k on combining explo a o y and no ma i e scena ios. A key sho coming in ou scena io me hods o de elop he heo y u he is ha he in eg a ion o no ma i e and explo a o y scena ios was no pa icipa o y, bu a desk-s udy. Th ough a pa icipa o y me hod we would ha e gained e en s onge g ounds o building heo e ical p oposals add essing he HOW ques ion. E en hough ou wo kshop me hod did no include a sepa a e session on combining backcas s o explo a o y scena ios, s ill he wo kshop discussions in- cluded ele an poin s o he combina ion. Whe e such s a emen s we e missing, we used ou expe ise o iden i y he dynamics o he HOW ques ion (Sec ion 4.3). 4. Resul s 4.1. Fou explo a o y scena ios The ou iden i ied explo a o y scena ios ha desc ibe di e en wo lds by 2040 a e: 1) “T ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y”, 2) “Business- as-usual”, 3) “Inequali y”, and 4) “T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism”. These scena ios di e ge in ela ion o how he dynamics o he key hemes and d i e s un old, ha ing di e gen implica ions o he use o Bal ic he ing as ood. Table 1 ou lines he ela ionships o he ou scena ios o key hemes o d i e s. The d i e s o be included we e chosen due o hei high ele ance o Bal ic he ing and i s use as ood. 4.2. Summa y o backcas ing esul s Based on he backcas ing me hod in he s akeholde wo kshop, we iden i ied a ious pa hs owa ds he a ge o inc easing he use o Bal ic he ing as ood signi ican ly. Table 2 ou lines six key p oposals on how his could be done and ocuses on who should do wha o p omo e he a ge . 4.3. Combining he explo a o y and backcas ing scena ios Ha ing ou lined he logic o ou explo a o y scena ios (Table 1) and six ecommenda ions on how he use o Bal ic he ing as ood can be inc eased (Table 2), we can combine hese wo esul s o in- no a i ely analyse how each o he six ecommenda ions wo ks in each explo a o y scena io (see Appendix 1). Below, we p o ide six examples o he dynamics o how backcas ing ecommenda ions wo k unde he explo a o y scena ios. Dynamics 1: C ea ing access o he EU ma ke o Bal ic he ing in he “business-as-usual” scena io. E en i a no ma i e ecommenda ion seems o wo k unde a ce ain scena io, i s e ec s may be nulli ied by o he dynamics in he scena io. Wo kshop pa icipan s expec ed ha Eu opean ma ke s will open o he ing i he demand o ish as a sou ce ood con inues o inc ease and he s a e o a ious o he ish s ocks consumed in he Eu opean ma ke con inues o decline. Opening o he ma ke s is also suppo ed in he business-as-usual scena io by a endency o p omo e ee ade and emo e p o ec ionism wi hin he EU. In his scena io, he isk man- agemen is likely o change o maximise he con ibu ion o he EU's ishe ies o ood secu i y. In o he wo ds, he Membe S a es a e likely o be allowed o place he ing ha exceeds he maximum allowable dioxin le el on he EU ma ke , p o iding ha consume s a e in o med acco dingly. Howe e , in his scena io he demand o Bal ic he ing ood p oduc s emains low and he e o e i was wonde ed in he wo kshop whe he his opening niche o he ing in Eu opean ma ke s is likely o be illed by a ious cheap p oduc s b ough in by he global economy. Thus, in his scena io, despi e he access o he EU ish ma ke , Bal ic he ing ishe ies would mos likely con ibu e o he ood secu i y indi ec ly as ish eed and as ishmeal and oil de eloped o human consump ion. Dynamics 2: B anding he p oduc s unde he “T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism” scena io. Speci ic ecommenda ions may no ac ualise in a ce ain scena io, bu he e may be o he de elopmen s in he scena io ha subs i u e he ecommended ac ion. The wo kshop pa icipan s conside ed ha he b anding o he ing p oduc s is key o inc easing hei consump ion, and ecognised ha ends in b anding he ing p oduc s we e linked o sus ainabili y and heal h issues. In he “ ans o ma ion o p o- ec ionism” scena io, he ma ke s be ween coun ies a e closed. In ad- di ion, he demand o he ing ood p oduc s is low and he e a e no S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 203 Table 1 Fou explo a o y scena ios and hei ela ionships o key ac o s a ec ing he use o Bal ic he ing as ood. Scena ios Key ac o s T ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y (In eg a ed go e nance and low human impac ) Business-as-usual (In eg a ed go e nance and high human impac ) Inequali y (F agmen ed go e nance and low human impac ) T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism (F agmen ed go e nance and high human impac ) Rela ion o en i onmen al p oblems Ve y p oac i e Reac i e P oac i e– eac i e, a ies ac oss he Bal ic Sea egion P oac i e only i na ional economy o secu i y h ea ened Risk pe cep ion P ecau iona y p inciple Cau iousness when allowed by economic de elopmen The poo bea he isks, while hose well-o manage isks ac i ely h ough indi idual choices Only isks h ea ening na ional ( ood) secu i y acknowledged Inno a ions Subsidies and suppo o g een inno a ions Inno a ions p omo ing economic g ow h Some egions h i e, o he s s uggle Inno a ions enhancing na ional sel -su iciency Technological de elopmen Fas Ve y as Slow Ve y slow P oduc ion Inc eased e iciency, implemen a ion o ecologically bes p ac ices Inc eased e iciency, bu p ac ices less en i onmen ally iendly E iciency inc eases in some coun ies, (some) indus ies play an impo an ole Low e iciency, en i onmen al iendliness igno ed En i onmen al awa eness and engagemen High Medium-low High Low En i onmen al managemen Ecosys em-based ma ine and ishe ies managemen o Bal ic Sea, wi h s ong sec o al in eg a ion Ecosys em-based ishe ies managemen , bu wi h weak sec o al in eg a ion Sec o s, species and egions managed mos ly in sepa a ion Op imisa ion o esou ce use o economic de elopmen Fishe ies go e nance Combina ion o op-down and bo om-up Ac o s who gene a e economic g ow h can in luence Some i ms and ac o ies engage e ec i ely, bu ee ide s exis Top-down egula ion om na ion s a es Food consump ion Low-mea die s wi h emphasis on egional b ands. Demand o he ing p oduc s high Mea in ensi e die s, cheap p oduc s om global ma ke . Demand o he ing p oduc s a cu en low le el Di ided be ween consume s making economic s. g een and heal hy choices. Demand o he ing p oduc s inc eases Few na ional p oduc s domina e, mea in ensi e die s, demand only o op p eda o ish species, less o he ing p oduc s Dimensions o sus ainabili y Balance be ween all dimensions Economy domina es, bu o he s a e also acknowledged En i onmen al and social sus ainabili y by hose who can a o d i A emp s owa ds economic and social sus ainabili y wi hin coun ies Economic de elopmen Challenge o c ea e g een g ow h Global economy Une en Na ional economies Key p oblem Reac ions o s akeholde s who do no sha e g een alues Pa h dependency and limi ed capaci y o ans o ma ion P oblems wi h en i onmen al (in)jus ice Lack o coope a ion be ween coun ies In e na ional ela ions Global coope a ion o g een u u es Main ocus on he EU and egional collabo a ion, bu in e na ional collabo a ion also wo ks EU weakens, bila e al collabo a ion in he egion and Eu ope, poo ela ions o elsewhe e No collabo a ion egionally and globally, he EU becomes obsole e S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 204 ma ke s o en i onmen ally iendly p oduc s o luxu y p oduc s. The e o e, he e is li le incen i e o he na ional go e nance sys ems and ci il socie y o b and he ing p oduc s. Howe e , in his scena io, inc easing ( ish) ood sel -su iciency a he na ional le el becomes a p io i y. The e o e, he use o he ing as eed in aquacul u e inc eases, he eby also inc easing he con ibu ion o Bal ic he ing ishe ies o ood secu i y indi ec ly. Dynamics 3: C ea e access o EU ma ke s in he “Inequali y” sce- na io The ecommenda ion may seem o lead o be e ou comes o many s akeholde s, bu also has side e ec s and nega i e impac s o o he s akeholde s. In he “Inequali y” scena io, he consump ion o Bal ic he ing will inc ease in he egion due o g owing demand o local and sus ainable ood p oduc s. Howe e , due o he low en o cemen powe o he EU, he e is no egion-wide sys em in place o ensu e ha he he ing en e ing he ma ke is sa e o ea o ha su icien in o ma ion is p o ided o he consume s abou he isks and bene i s o he ing consump ion. As a esul , he ing ha is likely o exceed he maximum allowable dioxin le el can also be placed on he ma ke . While some coun ies al eady ha e a isk managemen sys em in place o la ge he ing, o he s do no . This implies ha he heal h bene i s and isks a e unequally dis ibu ed in he Bal ic Sea egion be ween he coun ies. In some coun ies, consume s a e in o med abou he po en ial isks e- la ed o Bal ic he ing consump ion and in o he s he inc eased use o he ing in his scena io may ha e nega i e heal h impac s on people, especially isk g oups i hey consume Bal ic he ing in g ea quan i ies. The e o e, side e ec s and ade-o s ela ed o ecommenda ions may eme ge, and p obably in di e en ways unde di e en explo a o y scena ios. Dynamics 4: Gaining access o global ma ke s and a ge ing small he ing in he “business-as-usual” scena io. The no ma i e ecommenda ion may wo k in a ce ain scena io, bu ha e di e gen implica ions o di e en s akeholde g oups. Dynamics 3 conside ed inequali ies wi hin he coun ies whe e he he ing is caugh and consumed; he e we poin ou implica ions o ce ain no - ma i e ecommenda ion o di e en coun ies, unc ioning wi h Table 2 Summa y o he six ecommenda ions on how o inc ease he use o Bal ic he ing as ood, iden i ying who should do wha . Recommenda ions Who and how The sub- a ge 1. De elop he Bal ic he ing b and o inc ease a ac i eness o Bal ic he ing p oduc s - Fo mal ishe ies go e nance sys em (i.e. he EU and na ional decision-make s and au ho i ies) suppo s he ishing indus y in he p oduc ion o adi ional and new endy p oduc s made o bo h small and la ge he ing. - Fishing indus y collabo a es wi h ci il socie y and esea che s o p o ide in o ma ion on he sus ainabili y o he s ock and whe he he ish is sa e o ea o he ea ing ecommenda ions apply (labelling as ma ke ing ool). - C oss-sec o al collabo a ion o imp o e he o e all image o he Bal ic Sea. C oss-cu ing 2. P oduc ion o ishmeal and oil o human consump ion o gain access o he ishmeal and oil ood ma ke - EU decision-make s impose equal quali y s anda ds o p oduc s de eloped in he EU and impo ed ou side he EU by emo ing he EU egula ion banning he use o Bal ic ish in ish oil o human consump ion. - Fishing indus y esponds o he mega end o enhancing human heal h h ough ish- ela ed p oduc s by de eloping a ma ke o ishmeal and oil ood p oduc s made o Bal ic he ing. Fishmeal and oil p oduce s es ablish sepa a e p oduc ion lines o ood in ended as ishmeal and oil, and de elop high-quali y ish oil om he ing. - Ci il socie y, ishe ies manage s, esea che s and ishing indus y collabo a e o ge ce i ica ions and labelling. - Resea che s p o ide s udies ela ing o quali y, moni o ing and heal h. C oss-cu ing 3. Use he eed di ec ed sha e o he ca ch and by- p oduc s om ood p ocessing in aquacul u e o maximise he con ibu ion o he ing o ood secu i y - Fo mal ishe ies go e nance sys em en o ces and suppo s he use o eed-di ec ed sha e o he ca ch, la ge non-complian he ing and by-p oduc s om ood p ocessing as eed in aquacul u e. - Fishing indus y and managemen collabo a e o de elop so ing, p ocessing and dis ibu ion. - Ci il socie y, ishe ies manage s, esea che s and ishing indus y collabo a e o ge ce i ica ions and labelling in o de o inc ease he alue and a ac i eness o Bal ic he ing eed. C oss-cu ing 4. Ta ge ishe y owa ds small he ing o gain access o he EU ma ke - The o mal go e nance sys em suppo s inno a i e ishing me hods a ge ing small dioxin- ee he ing, en o ces so ing o he ca ch and ensu es ha only small he ing en e s he ma ke unless o he wise indica ed. - Fishing indus y oge he wi h he ci il socie y campaign o p omo e he consump ion o heal hy local ish. La ge he ing is used as eed in aquacul u e. - S udies o assess a eas om which so ing is needed and hei pe cen ages. Reducing he dioxin con en in he ing 5. C ea e access o he EU ma ke o Bal ic he ing o espond o he CFP objec i e o inc eased sea ood sel -su iciency and a ailabili y in he EU - The o mal go e nance sys em suppo s p oduc de elopmen and b anding, and gua an ees ha p oduc s en e ing he ma ke a e complian wi h he EU egula ion o al e na i ely amend he egula ion o allow access o la ge he ing o he EU ma ke and p o ide ea ing ecommenda ions o isk g oups. - Fishing indus y in es s in de elopmen and ma ke ing o new p oduc s as well as p omo ing adi ional p oduc s. - Ci il socie y de elops image o local, heal hy and sus ainable p oduc s and pa icipa es in dissemina ion and ad e isemen o he p oduc s. - Heal h s udies o imp o e unde s anding o he bene i s and isks o ea ing he ing. Inc ease ma ke s o Bal ic he ing in EU 6. C ea e access o he global ma ke o espond o g owing global demand o ish - EU and na ional au ho i ies ensu e ha he ish en e ing he global ma ke is sa e o ea o ea ing ecommenda ions a e p o ided. They also os e good ela ionships wi h o he coun ies. - Fishing indus y c ea es new endy p oduc s, de elops exis ing ma ke s and dis ibu ion channels, and looks o new ma ke oppo uni ies. Fishing indus y collabo a es wi h ci il socie y o ge ecolabels and ce i ica ions. - Ci il socie y has a key ole in p omo ing he image and b and o Bal ic he ing. - Ma ke , heal h and socio-cul u al alue s udies needed o suppo ac ion. Inc ease expo o he ing p oduc s ou side EU S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 205 di e en logics and d i e s. The wo kshop pa icipan s d ew om hei pas expe iences, and poin ed ou ha he dioxin con en o he ing is no an issue when he ish is sold o Russia o human con- sump ion— he cu en sale ban ela es solely o poli ical dis- ag eemen s—whe eas China, a po en ially la ge buye o he ing, is mo e conscious o he heal h isks ela ed o dioxins. Thus, he ishe ies sec o migh ensu e ha he ish en e ing he Chinese ma ke is sa e o ea , i.e. by placing small he ing on he Chinese ma ke , while Russian consume s con inue o be exposed o dioxin isks due o he lack o na ional and in e na ional sa e y egula ions. Fu he mo e, he e would be no economic incen i es o change his logic. The e o e, a ge ing small he ing in he business-as-usual scena io is likely o be ishe ies dependen cha ac e ised by he di ide be ween hose a ge ing Chinese ma ke s by ca ching small he ing, and hose ocusing a he on quan i y sold as a bulk p oduc o Russia. Dynamics 5: Gaining access o he EU ma ke and a ge ing small he ing in he “ ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y” scena io The no ma i e ecommenda ions may also link o each o he . He e we add ess a case whe e wo o mo e ecommenda ions will mu ually ein o ce each o he , leading o a s ong basis o he ecommenda ions wi hin an explo a o y scena io. In he “T ans o ma ion o sus ain- abili y” scena io, EU policymake s will open a Eu opean ma ke o Bal ic he ing and, a he same ime, consume s choose and suppo sus ainable he ing p oduc s. The e o e, in ha scena io, policymaking and ci izen and consume beha iou ma ch each o he . On he o he hand, in his scena io, ends o he p ecau iona y p inciple, in eg a ed and ecosys em-based ishe ies managemen and demand o en- i onmen ally iendly p oduc s will p omo e he de elopmen o no el p oduc s om small dioxin- ee he ing, he eby p omo ing also size- selec i e ishing and so ing he ca ch. This leads o ishe ies s a egies also o ma ch wi h policies and consume beha iou . Dynamics 6: Fishmeal and oil o human consump ion in he “T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism” scena io Dynamics 6 add esses a si ua ion whe e a ecommenda ion o ce ain s akeholde g oups unde a speci ic explo a o y scena io wo ks only pa ially, and in o de o wo k needs o be suppo ed by o he ac o s o policies ha a e no likely in he gi en scena io. In he “T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism” scena io, na ional subsidies and in- cen i es will exis o und in es men s o p oduce ishmeal and oil o human consump ion. Howe e , in ha scena io, due o slow economic g ow h, ishe ies ha e limi ed unds and he e o e, unless he in es - men s a e ully subsidised, i is unlikely ha in es men s o high- quali y p oduc s a e made. 5. Discussion In his Discussion sec ion, we de elop heo e ically ele an as- sump ions, which a e based on he six key dynamics be ween no ma i e backcas ing ecommenda ions and explo a o y scena ios ha we e iden i ied in Sec ion 4.3. 5.1. Re e se dynamics The no ma i e ecommenda ions iden i ied in backcas ing may ac- ualise in some scena ios, bu s ill no lead o desi able e ec s due o o he dynamics in a gi en scena io. The e o e, i is essen ial ha he implica ions o a ious d i e s appa en in scena ios should be checked agains he ecommenda ions as some o he d i e s may c ea e “ e e se dynamics”, nulli ying he e ec i eness o ecommenda ions seemingly wo kable in speci ic explo a o y scena ios (c. . Pome oy e al., 2016). 5.2. Subs i u ion The di e si y o in e -connec ed go e nance measu es has been iden i ied as a p ope y o social-ecological sys ems ha inc eases e- silience (Jones e al., 2013). Rela edly, we ound ha ce ain e- commenda ions may no ac ualise in a ce ain scena io, bu he e may be o he de elopmen s in he scena io ha subs i u e he ecommended ac ion. The e o e, some ecommenda ions may no wo k in ce ain scena ios, bu de ailed analysis can lead o inding al e na i e ways o achie ing he no ma i e a ge in o he ways (see Go don, 2015). The subs i u ion ep esen s a cons uc i e al e na i e o deeming ha some no ma i e ecommenda ions jus canno wo k in ce ain explo a o y scena ios. Fo example, an Vlie and Kok (2015) ha e analysed a se o ecommenda ions unde ou explo a o y scena ios p o iding a possi- bili y o iden i y subs i u ing ways o each he a ge unde speci ic scena ios. 5.3. Risky easons The explo a o y scena ios may seem o hal he p oposed e- commenda ions bu simila de elopmen s may eme ge o al e na i e easons ha , howe e , ha e di e en impac s, including isks and ne- ga i e side e ec s (e.g. Nel, 2015). The “Risky easons” dynamic is close o ha o “Subs i u ion” bu s esses ha i de elopmen s a ise om al e na i e easons, hey may also ha e al e na i e nega i e side e - ec s. The e o e, i is no enough o map whe he ce ain e- commenda ions would wo k in a ce ain scena io, bu o examine how he ecommenda ions could wo k in a way ha can ealise bene i s and/o minimise isks also o hose s akeholde s in an in e io posi ion (Fabinyi e al., 2015). 5.4. Unique ealisa ion Some explo a o y scena io logics may suppo ac ualisa ion o he ecommenda ion ha ing bene i s o some s akeholde s, while a he same ime he ecommenda ion will no ake place ega ding o he ac o s (e.g. Fi zpa ick e al., 2017). The no ma i e ecommenda ion can wo k o some ac o s in a ce ain scena io, bu o he ac o s may h i e unde he same scena io wi h di e en and e en opposing logic. Thus, he no ma i e ecommenda ions should be sensi i e also o sol e he unique challenges and be open o p omo e mul iple s a egies as success ul unde an explo a o y scena io ac oss s akeholde g oups. 5.5. Mu ual ein o cemen The e may be sel - ein o cing eedback ha makes he e- commenda ions mo e obus in ce ain scena ios (see Bundy e al., 2017;Gu ié ez and Mo gan, 2017). He e, wo o mo e likely e- commenda ions will mu ually ein o ce each o he , leading o a s ong basis o de elopmen suppo ed by he ecommenda ions wi hin an explo a o y scena io. Explo a o y scena io logics may gi e ise o a - ious mu ually ein o cing de elopmen s, p omo ing he simul aneous wo kabili y o nume ous ecommenda ions. 5.6. Doub ul suppo E en i indi idual ecommenda ions a ge ing a single s akeholde g oup would wo k in some scena ios, hey may need suppo om o he ac o s, which is no p obable in he gi en explo a o y scena io (see Bodin and C ona, 2009;S öh e al., 2014). The doub ul suppo con- cep add esses he unce ain y o a ious ac o s o wo k o he e- commenda ion in he gi en explo a o y scena io. 6. Conclusion This pape has iden i ied ecommenda ions on how Bal ic he ing S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 206 can be used signi ican ly mo e as ood in he u u e in o de o p o ide a sus ainable sou ce o p o ein and nu i ious ood. These ecommenda- ions we e analysed agains ou explo a o y scena ios. This pape has p oposed ad ancemen s o scena io li e a u e by heo ising u he he ques ion on HOW no ma i e ecommenda ions unc ion ac oss ex- plo a o y scena ios. To heo ise he HOW ques ion, we iden i ied six assump ions on he dynamics be ween no ma i e ecommenda ions and explo a o y scena ios. We emphasise he need o simul aneously analyse mul iple 1) explo a o y scena ios; 2) se s o no ma i e e- commenda ions ins ead o single ecommenda ion; 3) implica ions o mul iple d i e s on single ecommenda ions; 4) implica ions o e- commenda ions o mul iple s akeholde s; and 5) syne gies and ade- o s be ween ecommenda ions. These no es need o be aken in o ac- coun also in u u e me hodologies o add ess he HOW ques ion. While ou analysis o e s a cons uc i e depa u e o u he de elop he scena io me hodologies, u u e esea ch is also needed. Fi s ly, he pa icipa o y aspec o ou me hod could be expanded. While he six no ma i e ecommenda ions we e co-p oduced wi h s akeholde s, he ways in which hese ela e o he ou explo a o y scena ios we e iden i ied by he au ho s o he p esen pape . Howe e , being able o assess how a ecommenda ion wo ks in di e se explo a o y scena io logics equi es in-dep h unde s anding o he scena ios. The e o e, adding a pa icipa o y aspec would include “a isk o pa icipan s being o e whelmed by he complexi y o he choices hey a e being asked o make” (Robinson e al., 2011: 756), equi ing mo e han one wo kshop o build owne ship o he scena ios (see Cai ns e al., 2016; an Vlie and Kok, 2015). Secondly, he six iden i ied assump ions need o be es ed in o he cases. Thi dly, we de ached he six no ma i e e- commenda ions om longe pa hs iden i ied in he pa icipa o y backcas ing exe cise. The nex s ep would be o s a om complex ecommenda ion pa hs and hei ela ionships o explo a o y scena ios a he han om indi idual ecommenda ions. Howe e , his simpli i- ca ion was needed o his pape o p o ide baseline assump ions on he HOW ques ion. Fou hly, he p esen ed explo a o y scena ios need mo e de ail wi h ega d o hei speci ic ele ance and ealisa ion e- ga ding Bal ic he ing. Finally, he combina ion and u he de elop- men o scena io me hodologies is needed o be e en ision wha is plausible in a con ex ual sense, and how people could eac o hose plausible u u es by ope a ional ac ions (Bou geois e al., 2017). To assess he ac ual impac o he use o pa icipa o y scena ios o in lu- ence go e nance, ollow-up s udies a e needed (Quis e al., 2011). By explo ing he al e na i e u u es, we can be be e equipped o cope wi h u u e changes and p oac i ely de elop a p ac ical means o make ou wo ld mo e sus ainable. Acknowledgemen s This pape is a con ibu ion om he BONUS GOHERR p ojec (In eg a ed go e nance o Bal ic he ing and salmon s ocks in ol ing s akeholde s), and i has ecei ed unding om BONUS (A 185), unded join ly by he EU and he Academy o Finland. The au ho s wish o hank all he s akeholde s who pa icipa ed in he wo kshop as well as he pee - e iewe s o hei cons uc i e commen s. Appendix 1. Scena io-speci ic dynamics ega ding he six ecommenda ions o inc ease he use o he ing as ood T ans o ma ion o sus ainabili y Business-as-usual Inequali y T ans o ma ion o p o ec ionism Recommenda ion 1: B and he p oduc s The e will be bo h EU and na ional sup- po sys ems o inno a ions, p oduc de elopmen , b anding, and ma - ke ing. Due o o e all p oac i e a i- udes owa ds he en i onmen , he e will be consume demand o hese p oduc s leading o new in es men s ha inc ease he ing ca ch as ood. Despi e he ini ially low egional demand o he ing ood p oduc s, he e a e incen i es and mo i a ion o in es in p oduc de el- opmen , b anding and ma ke ing o gain access o global ma ke s. In es men s ela e mainly o he p omo ion o Bal ic he ing use in ishmeal and oil p oduc ion. Na ional incen i es a e sca ce. Howe e , due o high demand o local and sus ainable ish p oduc s, bo om-up local and bila e al in- i ia i es o p oduc de elopmen , b anding and ma ke ing eme ge, inc easing inequali y in he ishe ies sec o ac oss he egion. Limi ed mo i a ion o na ional incen i es o de elop he he ing b and o human consump ion as he demand o p oduce eed o aquacul u e inc eases signi i- can ly due o closed na ional ma ke s. Recommenda ion 2: P oduc ion o ishmeal and oil o human consump ion EU policymake s impose equal quali y s - anda ds o ishmeal and oil p oduc s p oduced in he EU and in o he cou- n ies. This dec eases he EU ood m- a ke s' dependence on impo ed p o- duc s. In es men suppo o inno a i e and sus ainable he ing p- oduc s a e p o ided by na ion s a es, and he e a e g owing ma ke s o h- eal hy and en i onmen ally sus ain- able p oduc s. The e will be an economic incen i e o ish ac o ies o adop no el echnologies o de eloping luxu y ish oil p oduc s om he ing. This compe es wi h cheape and lowe -quali y p oduc s de eloped ou side o he EU. Al hough he egional demand o he ing ood is gene ally low, new luxu y and high-quali y ishmeal and oil p oduc s a e a ac i e o many in he egion and globally. The e will be no na ional o EU le el suppo o de elop he p oduc ion o ishmeal and oil p oduc s o human consump ion. Howe e , in some ac o ies, in es men s a e made while o he s lack willingness and/o capa- ci y o deal wi h he ela ed (economic) isks. The p oduc s compe e wi h cheape impo ed p oduc s, and only he ich can a o d o buy local high-quali y ishmeal and oil p oduc s. Global mega end o heal hy ood will no di use in a agmen ed wo ld. In e na ional ma ke does no exis , bu domes ic ishmeal and oil b ands o human consump ion ha a e p omo ed na ionally as pa o a heal hy die may eme ge. Recommenda ion 3: Use he eed-di ec ed sha e o he ca ch and by-p oduc s om ood p ocessing in aquacul u e Owing o inc eased demand, he ing is u- sed p ima ily o di ec human con- sump ion and seconda ily o ishmeal and oil p oduc ion. To mee he de- mands o aquacul u e and o inc ease sea ood sel -su iciency, by-p oduc s o ood p ocessing a e used in aqua- cul u e. Due o low demand and a eac i e manage- men app oach, he main s a egy o in- c ease ood secu i y and sa e y is aquacul- u e, and he e o e he majo i y o he ca ch is used di ec ly o ishmeal and oil. The e is, howe e , an economic incen i e o u ilise by-p oduc s as well. Aquacul u e is he main s a egy o ood secu i y and sa e y due o al eady exis ing in as uc u e. Despi e he inc eased use o he ing o human consump ion, he e a e only a ew local ini ia i es o u ilise by- p oduc s. Many coun ies use he ing p ima ily in aquacul u e. Use o human consump ion dec eases; howe e , in some a eas he by- p oduc s a e used in ishmeal and oil o maximise p o i and inc ease sel -su i- ciency in aquacul u e p oduc ion. Recommenda ion 4: Ta ge ishe y owa ds small he ing Owing o p oac i e app oaches o man- agemen , his p oposal will be imple- men ed in a eas whe e maximum al- lowable dioxin le els in Bal ic he ing a e likely o be exceeded. New me h- ods a e de eloped o implemen size- selec i e ishing. The demand o he- ing ood p oduc s in he egion is Implemen a ion dependen on global isk pe cep ions. I access o global ma ke s en- ails ha he dioxin le els a e low, a ishe y esponds o his by ensu ing ha he p o- duc s expo ed mee he sa e y c i e ia. Owing o as echnological de elopmen , new ishing me hods a e a ailable. Heal hy and local die is alued so he e is consume demand o dioxin- ee small he - ing, bu due o lack o egional collabo a- ion and weak ishe ies managemen , he de elopmen and implemen a ion o new ishing measu es is slow. Howe e , many ishing companies so he ca ch o inc ease Due o ine ec i e p oduc ion, eac i e a i ude o en i onmen al p oblems, lack o coope a ion be ween coun ies, and economic incen i e, inno a i e ishing me hods will no be de eloped. Size-se- lec i e ishing and so ing o he ca ch con inues o ake place in ce ain S. Sa kki, M. Pihlajamäki Technological Fo ecas ing & Social Change 139 (2019) 200–209 207 high, and he e o e he majo i y o he ca ch is consumed egionally. he a ailabili y o small he ing o human consump ion. coun ies, e.g. Es onia, bu only on a small scale due o low demand. Recommenda ion 5: C ea e access o he EU ma ke o Bal ic he ing The Eu opean ma ke is opened as EU p- olicymake s p io i ise imp o ed sel - su iciency. The e is a sys em in place o ensu e ha he he ing en e ing he ma ke is sa e o ea . EU policymake s a e likely o open he Eu opean ma ke o p omo e he iabili y o he ishe ies sec o and ood sel -su iciency as many o he pelagic s ocks ha e no ye ully eco e ed. Risk managemen pe cep- ions a e changed o allow he Membe S a es o place all Bal ic he ing p oduc s on he ma ke , p o ided ha consume s a e in o med acco dingly, e.g. by using labelling on whe he he ish p oduc exceeds he maximum allowable dioxin le els. The en o cemen powe o he EU is weak and ade limi ed as many na ions a e e- luc an o open hei ish ood ma ke s o new p oduc s. In he Bal ic Sea egion, howe e , ading o he ing ood p oduc s inc eases o mee he g owing demand. The e is no egional sys em in place o ensu e he he ing en e ing he ma ke is sa e o ea o labelled app op ia ely. This means ha la ge he ing can also be sold on he ma ke . Some local ini ia i es eme ge ha aim o p o ide in o ma ion o consu- me s. The EU will b eak and he e will be na ional p o ec ionis policies. Each coun y manages he isks independen ly, which yields a ying s a egies o he use o la ge he ing. Howe e , since he de- mand o he ing ood p oduc s is low, la ge he ing is mos ly used in ishmeal and oil p oduc ion, and poses no se ious isk o human heal h. Recommenda ion 6: C ea e access o he global ma ke s C ea e ma ke sha e by p omo ing he b - and, new p oduc s and by ensu ing - ha he p oduc s a e sa e o ea . Owing o inc eased awa eness o ood sa e y issues globally, he demand o small he ing exceeds ha o la ge. Russia and Uk aine a e impo an buye s o la ge he ing, whe eas ma ke sha e o small dioxin- ee he ing is c ea ed in Asia. The Bal ic Sea coun ies wo k oge he o inc ease he olume a ailable o expo ma ke s. Al hough in e na ional collabo a ion is poo , he demand o ish p oduc s is high, which means ha he e is demand o Bal ic he - ing p oduc s. 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