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Job
c ea ion
du ing
he
global
ene gy
ansi ion
owa ds
100%
enewable
powe sys em by 2050
Ram
Manish,
Aghahosseini
A man,
B eye
Ch is ian
Ram,
M.,
Aghahosseini,
A.,
B eye ,
C.
(2019).
Job
c ea ion
du ing
he
global
ene gy
ansi ion
owa ds 100% enewable powe sys em by 2050. Technological Fo ecas ing and Social
Change.
DOI: 10.1016/j. ech o e.2019.06.008
Au ho 's accep ed manusc ip (AAM)
Else ie
Technological
Fo ecas ing
and
Social
Change
10.1016/j. ech o e.2019.06.008
© 2019 Else ie Inc.
Ti le: Job c ea ion du ing he global ene gy ansi ion owa ds 100% enewable powe sys em by
2050
Au ho s: Manish Ram*, A man Aghahosseini, Ch is ian B eye
LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
*Co esponding Au ho .
Full name: Manish Ram
A ilia ion: LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
Tel (Mobile): +358 40 8171944
Fax: +358 5 621 2350
E-mail add ess: manish. a[email p o ec ed]
Second Au ho :
Full name: A man Aghahosseini
A ilia ion: LUT Uni e si y, Ylipis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
Tel: +358 294 462 111
Fax: +358 5 621 2350
Email: a man.aghahos[email p o ec ed]
Thi d (Las ) Au ho :
Full name: Ch is ian B eye
A ilia ion: LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
Tel: +358 294 462 111
Fax: +358 5 621 2350
Email: ch is ian.b eye @lu . i
Job c ea ion du ing he global ene gy ansi ion owa ds 100% enewable powe sys em by 2050
Manish Ram*, A man Aghahosseini, Ch is ian B eye
LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
*Co esponding Au ho . E-mail add ess: manish. am@lu . i
Abs ac
Aside om educing he ene gy sec o ’s nega i e impac s on he en i onmen , enewable powe gene a ion
echnologies a e c ea ing new weal h and becoming impo an job c ea o s o he 21s cen u y.
Employmen c ea ion o e he du a ion o he global ene gy ansi ion is an impo an aspec o explo e,
which could ha e policy ami ica ions a ound he wo ld. This esea ch ocuses on he employmen impac
o an accele a ed up ake o enewable elec ici y gene a ion ha sees he wo ld de i e 100% o i s elec ici y
om enewable sou ces by 2050, in o de o mee he goals se by he Pa is Ag eemen . An analy ical job
c ea ion assessmen o he global powe sec o om 2015 o 2050 is es ima ed and p esen ed on a egional
basis. I is ound ha he global di ec jobs associa ed wi h he elec ici y sec o inc eases om abou 21
million in 2015 o nea ly 35 million in 2050. Sola PV, ba e ies and wind powe a e he majo job c ea ing
echnologies du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050. This is he i s global s udy p esen ing job
c ea ion p ojec ions o ene gy s o age. The esul s indica e ha a global ene gy ansi ion will ha e an
o e all posi i e impac on he u u e s abili y and g ow h o economies a ound he wo ld.
Keywo ds
Jobs, Employmen , Renewable Ene gy, Ene gy S o age, Ene gy T ansi ion
Abb e ia ions
A-CAES Adiaba ic Comp essed Ai Ene gy S o age
BNEF Bloombe g New Ene gy Finance
BPS Bes Policies Scena io
CAPEX Capi al Expendi u es
CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Tu bine
CPS Cu en Policies Scena io
CSP Concen a ed Sola The mal Powe
EU Eu opean Union
FLH Full Load Hou s
GDP G oss Domes ic P oduc
GHG G eenhouse Gases
GW Gigawa
IEA In e na ional Ene gy Agency
IMF In e na ional Mone a y Fund
IPCC In e na ional Panel on Clima e Change
ILO In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion
IRENA In e na ional Renewable Ene gy Agency
LCOE Le elised Cos o Elec ici y
MW Megawa
OCGT Open Cycle Gas Tu bine
OPEX Ope a ional Expendi u es
P G Powe - o-Gas
P H Powe - o-Hea
PV Pho o ol aics
TW Te awa
USD Uni ed S a es Dolla
1. In oduc ion
The isks and impac s posed by de as a ing socioeconomic consequences o clima e inac ion ha e been
conspicuously s essed in he In e na ional Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC) 4 h and 5 h assessmen epo s
(IPCC, 2007, 2014a) as well as he S e n e iew (S e n, 2007). In his ega d, he Pa is Ag eemen ,
nego ia ed a he 21s Con e ence o he Pa ies (COP21) in 2015 (UNFCCC, 2015), has se an impo an
ounda ion on which he global communi y can build a sus ainable u u e. Wi h elec ici y gene a ion
accoun ing o a ound 25% o global g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, educing emissions in his sec o
is a c i ical componen in he ansi ion owa ds a low ca bon de elopmen pa hway (IPCC, 2014b). A
global ene gy ansi ion is well unde way wi h nea ly 160 GW o enewables (wi hou conside ing la ge
hyd opowe ) been added in 2017, o which 98 GW was sola and 53 GW wind powe (F ank u School -
UNEP & BNEF, 2018; GWEC, 2018). In addi ion, umbling echnology cos s ha e p opelled in es men s
in enewable ene gy powe gene a ion and om a le elised cos o ene gy (LCOE) ou look, enewables
ha e become a mo e a ac i e in es men p oposi ion han ossil uels in many coun ies a ound he wo ld
(Ram e al., 2017a; Ram e al., 2018). The e ec s o he new ene gy sys em would no be es ic ed o
ene gy p oduc ion only, bu would ha e consequences o he whole socie y (B eye , e al., 2017a).
Ene gy use is ei he he cause o he acili a o o economic g ow h. Mo eo e , su icien e idence o e he
yea s poin o he posi i e co ela ion be ween ene gy use, economic g ow h and employmen (CDC &
ODI, 2016). As he global ene gy sys em is a majo economic sec o wi h a sha e o a ound 8% in global
g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) (IER, 2010), he p ospec s o in es men and employmen in he sec o a e
signi ican o economies a ound he wo ld. The physical implica ions o a shi owa ds g ea e sha es o
enewable elec ici y such as addi ional gene a ion capaci ies, in es men needs and educ ion in GHG
emissions ha e been explo ed o a ange o scena ios in many coun ies as well as globally, as enlis ed and
analysed in Child e al. (2018). Howe e , employmen associa ed wi h he elec ici y sec o and he impac
o an accele a ed up ake o enewables on employmen c ea ion in he sec o , has ecei ed ela i ely lesse
a en ion. A e iew was pe o med by Sheikh e al. (2016) o de e mine he c i e ia ha a e elemen s o he
social and poli ical pe spec i es, which ound ha enewable ene gy has he po en ial o play a signi ican
ole in ul illing he employmen c i e ion. As in o he economic and echnological shi s, ansi ioning o
a low ca bon economy will esul in addi ional jobs being c ea ed, jobs being subs i u ed, jobs being
elimina ed and exis ing jobs being ans o med (UNEP, 2008). Combining di e en me hods, as p oposed
by Fo es e al. (2015), is a way o ad ance scena io building by in eg a ing di e en collec i e hinking
and o he socioeconomic pa ame e s.
As he ene gy sec o inc easingly mo es hand in hand wi h economic de elopmen , social p io i ies and
en i onmen al needs, an in eg a ion o social p ocesses wi h echnical and economic analyses o ene gy
sys ems is he e o e a necessi y. In pu iew, his esea ch e alua es he hypo hesis o sound economic
impac s om ansi ioning o a sus ainable economy by de e mining he employmen e ec s o achie ing
100% enewable powe supply by 2050, ac oss he wo ld s uc u ed in o 9 majo egions. The wo ld is
ca ego ised in o Eu ope, Eu asia, Middle Eas and No h A ica (MENA), Sub-Saha an A ica, Sou h Asian
Associa ion o Regional Coope a ion (SAARC), No heas Asia, Sou heas Asia, No h Ame ica and Sou h
Ame ica. The ansi ion o powe sec o s ac oss hese egions, as showcased in B eye e al. (2017b) and
Ram e al. (2017a), se es as he basis o es ima ing jobs c ea ed du ing he ansi ion pe iod om 2015 o
2050. Addi ionally, job c ea ion po en ial is es ima ed on a echnology-wise basis as well as on a ca ego y-
wise basis du ing he ene gy ansi ion o p o ide be e insigh s on he ypes o jobs c ea ed. Mo eo e ,
his esea ch is he i s o es ima e po en ial job c ea ion by he a ious s o age echnologies du ing he
ene gy ansi ion on a global basis. This is p ima ily due o he inno a i e aspec s o he LUT Ene gy
Sys em T ansi ion modelling ool (B eye e al., 2017b; Ram e al., 2017a), which analyses powe sys ems
ac oss he wo ld on an hou ly basis enabling de ailed analyses o s o age equi emen s.
Fu he , his esea ch p esen s an o e iew o exis ing li e a u e in sec ion 2. The de ailed me hods, a ious
assump ions and o he ele an ma e ial in es ima ing job c ea ion du ing he ene gy ansi ion a e
highligh ed in sec ion 3. The ollowing sec ion 4 p esen s he esul s on a egional basis and displays he
jobs c ea ed on a echnology basis as well as on a ca ego y basis. In addi ion, sec ion 5 discusses he esul s
om a global pe spec i e and d aws a ew compa isons o o he such s udies. Finally, sec ion 6 d aws
conclusions and possible implica ions o he esul s.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
In ecen yea s, he job c ea ion po en ial o enewable ene gy echnologies in he con ex o he ene gy
ansi ion has ecei ed a en ion om some o he s akeholde s including academia, go e nmen agencies,
p i a e sec o and he ci il socie y (Child e al., 2018). The In e na ional Renewable Ene gy Agency
(IRENA) has es ima ed jobs associa ed wi h enewable ene gy o ise o a ound 16.7 million by 2030
(IRENA, 2013) and hei annual e iew o global employmen ela ed o enewable ene gy shows ha 10.3
million people we e employed in 2017 (IRENA, 2018). Jacobson e al. (2014) es ima ed jobs c ea ed and
jobs los o a long- e m sus ainable ene gy in as uc u e ha supplies 100% o ene gy in all sec o s
(elec ici y, anspo a ion, hea ing/cooling, and indus y) om wind, wa e , and sola powe (wi hou ossil
uels, bio uels, o nuclea powe ) o he s a e o Cali o nia and ound ha i will c ea e a ne o 220,000
40-yea cons uc ion plus ope a ion jobs (442,200 new 40-y cons uc ion jobs and 190,600 new 40-y
ope a ion jobs, less 413,000 jobs los in cu en Cali o nia ossil- and nuclea -based indus ies). Fu he ,
Jacobson e al. (2017) es ima e ha hei main scena io by 2050 ( ha is elec ici y gene a ion wi h 100%
wind, wa e , and sola powe o all ene gy sec o s) would c ea e a ne o 24.3 million pe manen , ull- ime
jobs ac oss 139 coun ies o he wo ld. This es ima e includes c ea ion o 52 million new ongoing jobs o
100% enewable elec ici y gene a ion and ansmission supplying o highly elec i ied ene gy sec o s
(including powe , hea and anspo ) up o 2050, while 27.7 million jobs a e los in he cu en ossil uel,
bio uel, and nuclea indus ies (Jacobson e al., 2017). Va ious edi ions o he Ene gy [R]e olu ion,
published since 2007, p ojec p obable employmen ou comes ac oss a b oad ange o scena ios
(G eenpeace In e na ional, 2015). The la es edi ion o e s a global es ima e o ene gy sec o employmen
o be 46.1 million by 2030 o he Ad anced Ene gy [R]e olu ion scena io. Ne e heless, he e a e s udies
ha ha e es ima ed he impac o enewable ene gy de elopmen on job c ea ion o be nega i e, esul ing
in job losses. Almu ai i e al. (2018) show a loss o 4.45 million jobs wo ldwide up o 2030 in he Renewable
and Nuclea Ene gy (RNE) scena io (based on he p edic ions o he in e na ional ene gy ou look)
compa ed o he business as usual (BAU) scena io. This s udy (Almu ai i e al., 2018) has made an e o

o es ima e bo h he di ec and indi ec jobs associa ed wi h he di e en ene gy scena ios by assessing he
o e all impac s on he g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) o di e en coun ies. Howe e , Ma kandya e al.
(2016) ound he ne employmen impac s om he ans o ma ion o he Eu opean Union ene gy sec o in
he pe iod 1995–2009, when he Eu opean Union’s ene gy s uc u e wen h ough a signi ican shi , away
om he mo e ca bon in ensi e sou ces, owa ds gas and enewables o be posi i e. Mo eo e , he esea ch
es ima ed he ne employmen gene a ed om his s uc u al change a 530,000 jobs in he Eu opean Union
and u he analysis showed ha he change in he inpu s uc u e o he Eu opean elec ici y and gas supply
sec o , mo i a ed signi ican ly by he desi e o shi owa ds a g een economy, had a ne posi i e impac on
employmen (Ma kandya e al., 2016). Whe eas, Böh inge e al. (2013) sugges wi h a compu able gene al
equilib ium analysis o subsidised elec ici y p oduc ion om enewable ene gy sou ces (RES-E) in
Ge many ha he p ospec s o employmen and wel a e gains a e qui e limi ed and hinge c ucially on he
le el o he subsidy a e and he inancing mechanism. To he con a y, by linking in es men s in ene gy
sec o and jobs c ea ed, Ga e -Pel ie (2017) inds ha on a e age, 2.65 ull- ime equi alen (FTE) jobs
a e c ea ed om 1 million USD spending in ossil uels, while ha same amoun o spending would c ea e
7.49 o 7.72 FTE jobs in enewables o ene gy e iciency. I is u he concluded ha each 1 million USD
shi ed om b own (includes ossil uels and nuclea ) o g een ene gy will c ea e a ne inc ease o 5 jobs
(Ga e -Pel ie , 2017). The esul s o hese s udies a e di icul , i no impossible o compa e due o hei
di e ing assump ions and modelling app oaches. Howe e , one ecu ing heme seems o be he posi i e
con ibu ion o high sha es o enewable ene gy up ake o he labou ma ke he eby gene a ing ample
employmen .
Employmen ends a y signi ican ly ac oss he di e en ene gy gene a ion echnologies. The e a e a
numbe o iden i iable me hods ha ha e been used o quan i y employmen impac s o he changing ene gy
sec o and ha e been well documen ed in li e a u e e iew s udies, such as B ei schop e al. (2011),
Came on and Zwaan (2015) and Meye and Somme (2014). Howe e , in gene al, he a ious me hods
applied can be ca ego ised in o bo om-up and op-down app oaches, o mo e speci ically as using he
analy ical o inpu –ou pu (IO) models (Wo ld Bank, 2011). Addi ionally, Lle a e al. (2013) and Hondo
and Mo iizumi (2017), highligh a alue-chain app oach and a li e-cycle app oach espec i ely, o
es ima ing job c ea ion mainly om enewable ene gy deploymen . Fu he mo e, he a ious s udies
conside di e en ypes o jobs associa ed wi h he ene gy indus y; he common adop ed classi ica ion is
‘di ec ’, ‘indi ec ’ and ‘induced’ jobs. IRENA (2011) elabo a es a clea and ope a ional de ini ion o hese
e ms, as well as hei in e p e a ion ac oss s udies. Lambe and Sil a (2012) ind ha analy ical s udies
using ex ensi e su eys a e ound o be mo e app op ia e o egional s udies, while inpu –ou pu me hods
a e be e sui ed o na ional and in e na ional s udies.
In Jacobson e al. (2014; 2017), es ima es o baseline jobs pe uni ene gy in hei main scena io a e based
on Na ional Renewable Ene gy Labo a o y’s (NREL) Jobs and Economic De elopmen Impac s (JEDI)
models (NREL, 2013). These a e economic IO models wi h se e al assump ions and unce ain ies. In
con as , IRENA (2013) and G eenpeace In e na ional (2015) adop simple analy ical app oaches o
es ima ing job impac s ha also ha e a high le el o anspa ency. This en ails u ilising job in ensi ies o
employmen ac o s (EF), de ined as he numbe o jobs de i ed om a ce ain ene gy echnology capaci y
addi ion o in es men . The EF app oach u ilised o es ima es o job c ea ion po en ial in G eenpeace’s
ene gy scena ios is documen ed by Ru o i z and A he on (2009), an imp o ed e sion is p esen ed in
Ru o i z and Ha is (2012) and he la es e sion in Ru o i z e al. (2015). This esea ch is an e o o
u he e ine he me hods and conduc a mo e comp ehensi e analysis o he ne jobs c ea ed du ing an
ene gy ansi ion, which includes a b oad ange o echnologies and is he i s o es ima e job c ea ion
po en ial o he complemen a y s o age echnologies. The esea ch has also included es ima es o
decommissioning jobs ac oss he a ious powe gene a ion echnologies c ea ed du ing he ene gy
ansi ion up o 2050.
3. Me hods and Ma e ials
Fo his esea ch, an analy ical app oach owa ds es ima ing jobs in an ene gy ansi ion scena io was
adop ed. Mo eo e , he me hods we e based on he app oach highligh ed in Ru o i z e al. (2015) and
u he modi ied and imp o ed o be e esul s as well as applied o a b oade ange o echnologies.
3.1 The Employmen Fac o app oach
Jobs gene a ed du ing he global ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 a e es ima ed u ilising he EF
app oach, adop ed om Ru o i z e al. (2015). The EF me hod was u ilised amongs he o he me hods
(B ei schop e al., 2011), due o i s simplici y and e ec i eness in es ima ing di ec employmen associa ed
wi h ene gy gene a ion, s o age and ansmission. One o he main ad an ages o he EF app oach is ha ,
i can be modi ied o speci ic con ex s, as well as applied o e a ange o ene gy scena ios. The Figu e 1
gi es an o e iew o he me hods u ilised o es ima e jobs c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015
o 2050 ac oss he di e en egions.
Figu e 1: Me hod o es ima ion o job c ea ion du ing he ene gy ansi ion. Abb e ia ions: Employmen
Fac o (EF), Capi al Expendi u e (CAPEX) and Ope a ional Expendi u e (OPEX).
In he con ex o his esea ch, he o al di ec jobs a e a sum o jobs in manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and
ins alla ion, ope a ions and main enance, uel supply associa ed wi h elec ici y gene a ion,
decommissioning o powe plan s a he end o hei li e imes and ansmission. The ca ego y o jobs a e as
ollows,
 Manu ac u ing Jobs – encompasses he numbe o jobs necessa y o manu ac u e a uni o powe
gene a ion capaci y. Manu ac u ing o equipmen and componen s o a powe plan p ojec may
equi e se e al weeks, mon hs o a mos a ew yea s’ wo h o wo k. As such, hey ep esen
ela i ely empo a y employmen in compa ison o he en i e plan li e ime. Hence, hey a e
exp essed as job-yea s, o he o al numbe o ull- ime jobs needed o manu ac u ing o e he
plan ’s li e ime (IRENA, 2013). Addi ionally, he manu ac u ing o equipmen and componen s o
powe plan s may occu ou side he coun y whe e he powe gene a ion capaci y is being ins alled.
Many coun ies ely on impo ing, especially enewable ene gy echnologies, as he domes ic
p oduc ion is insu icien o non-exis en ye . On he o he hand, coun ies ha expo enewable
ene gy equipmen and componen s can gene a e employmen , which is addi ional o ha ela ing
o hei domes ic ene gy capaci y addi ion by p oducing o expo ma ke s (IRENA, 2013). To
accoun o he deg ee o impo dependence, he local manu ac u ing ac o is conside ed which is
u he highligh ed below.
 Cons uc ion and Ins alla ion Jobs – includes all he jobs associa ed wi h cons uc ing and ins alling
a uni o powe gene a ion capaci y. I is assumed ha a local wo k o ce will unde ake he
ins alla ion and cons uc ion o all ene gy p ojec s, as is in mos cases. Simila o manu ac u ing,
hese a e exp essed as job-yea s, o he o al numbe o ull- ime jobs needed o cons uc ion and
ins alla ion o e he plan ’s li e ime. These jobs a e p edominan ly in he beginning phase o a
powe plan ( ha is in he i s ew yea s) and las du ing he pe iod in which he powe plan s a e
buil un il he i s ope a ion. In his case, he cons uc ion and ins alla ion jobs a e annualised o e
he cons uc ion pe iod o a powe plan , which is he ime equi ed o cons uc ion and ins alla ion
o uni powe plan capaci ies (in e ms o pe MW). The cons uc ion imes o all echnologies in
yea s can be ound in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial.
 Ope a ion and Main enance Jobs – comp ises all he jobs associa ed wi h ope a ing and main aining
he ope a ional condi ion o a powe plan o e i s echnical ope a ional li e ime. As powe plan s
a e usually designed o un o decades, ope a ion and main enance jobs las o a ela i ely longe
du a ion and he e o e in e p e ed as jobs pe capaci y o powe gene a ion. These jobs a e
conside ed o he li e ime o he espec i e powe plan s and a e u he annualised o ge o al
numbe o jobs du ing he ansi ion pe iod. As and when powe plan s a e decommissioned and
new powe plan s eplace he capaci y, he O&M jobs con inue o exis . A lea ning ac o , which is
co ela ed o he p oduc i i y inc ease in ope a ional expendi u es (Opex), is adop ed o e lec he
decline in O&M jobs as echnologies and ope a ional p ocesses u he ma u e.
 Fuel Jobs – includes all he jobs associa ed wi h uel supply o powe plan s (nuclea , ossil and
bioene gy). These a e exp essed as jobs pe uni o p ima y ene gy, ac o ing he di e en a es o
uel consump ion o powe plan s co esponding o he uel u ilised based on con e sion
e iciencies du ing he ansi ion pe iod.
 Decommissioning Jobs – consis s o all jobs associa ed wi h he decommissioning o ins alled
powe plan s a he end o hei ope a ional li e imes, especially i plan s a e epowe ed o i ce ain
elemen s a e ecycled o eused. These jobs a e compa able o cons uc ion and ins alla ion jobs
and a e exp essed as job-yea s, o he o al numbe o ull- ime jobs needed o decommissioning
o e he plan ’s li e ime. These jobs a e u he annualised du ing he ansi ion pe iod o de i e he
o al numbe o jobs c ea ed.
 T ansmission Jobs – includes all he jobs associa ed wi h powe ansmission ac i i ies. In con ex
o his esea ch, ansmission jobs a e exp essed in e ms o in es men s made in ansmission
in as uc u e, i.e. jobs pe uni in es men s (in billion eu os). As he LUT Ene gy Sys em
T ansi ion modelling ool conside s only key ansmission in as uc u e equi ed, he ull ex en o
jobs associa ed wi h ansmission in as uc u e is no e lec ed in his esea ch. The jobs om
ansmission in as uc u e will be a lo highe when mo e accu a e ansmission da a is conside ed.
 Jobs Loss: The jobs los in ossil uel and nuclea powe plan s a e co esponding o he
decommissioned capaci ies o con en ional powe plan s du ing he ansi ion pe iod. As
enewables a e mos ly ins alled beyond 2020, jobs do no a ise in con en ional powe plan s and
hese plan s a e decommissioned a he end o hei echnical li e imes, which c ea es addi ional
decommissioning jobs.
Figu e 4: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Eu asia.
The ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs o Eu asia du ing he ansi ion pe iod is as depic ed in Figu e 4.
Local manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and ins alla ion o enewable ene gy echnologies c ea e a signi ican
sha e o jobs enabling he apid build-up o capaci ies in he pe iod 2020-2025 (508 housand jobs), his is
also due o he ac ha mos con en ional powe plan s in his egion a e qui e old and nea ing hei end o
li e imes ha ha e o be eplaced (Fa an and B eye , 2017). This could se e as a co-bene i o he ene gy
ansi ion o coun ies ac oss Eu asia. Beyond 2030, he e a e s able numbe o jobs c ea ed in hese sec o s
up o 2050 wi h a ound 407 housand jobs. Fuel jobs a e an ini ial inc ease in 2020 (40% o o al
jobs),decline h ough he ansi ion pe iod as capaci ies o con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by
enewables un il 2030 and u he decline up o 2050 eaching jus abou 2% o o al jobs. On he con a y,
ope a ion and main enance jobs con inue o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod and become he majo job
c ea ing segmen by 2050, wi h 51% o o al jobs. As ope a ion and main enance jobs las h ough he
li e ime o powe plan s, hey o e ela i ely s able long- e m job p ospec s. As indica ed in Figu e 4, he
elec ici y demand speci ic jobs was a 516 jobs/TWhel in 2015 and inc eases o 859 jobs/TWhel in 2025
wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2025, i declines s eadily o 638
jobs/TWhel by 2050.
4.3 MENA
MENA is comp ised o coun ies ha a e eme ging economies as well as de eloped, wi h a ound 7% sha e
in global GDP (IMF, 2017). This egion is amongs he la ges ene gy p oduce s in he wo ld, wi h an
inc easingly high sha e o demand (Aghahosseini e al., 2016). The o al elec ici y consump ion was a ound
1360 TWh in 2015, which is es ima ed o ise o 3320 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016). This egion has immense
sola esou ces, which can be ha nessed o mee his g owing demand.
Wi h eco d low auc ions o sola powe ac oss he MENA egion, sola PV has eme ged as he mos
a ac i e sou ce o elec ici y gene a ion (Dipaola, 2017). Bo h u ili y-scale and oo op PV a e seen o
de elop h ough he ansi ion pe iod o be he dominan sou ce o powe gene a ion by 2050 (MEED,
2017; Ram e al., 2017a). Simila ly, sola PV is he p ime job c ea o h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h
almos a million jobs by 2050, as indica ed in Figu e 5. Wind powe gene a ion c ea es a ai sha e o jobs
du ing he pe iod o 2020 o 2030 (260 housand jobs in 2030), beyond which he sha es a e educed, as
PV becomes mo e cos compe i i e. S o age echnologies in he o m o ba e ies ake o om 2030
onwa ds and lead o a decen sha e o jobs c ea ed up o 2050 (193 housand jobs in he ba e y sec o ). The

o al numbe o di ec ene gy jobs ac oss he MENA egion a e obse ed o inc ease om jus a ound 590
housand in 2015 o nea ly 1.7 million by 2050.
Figu e 5: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in he MENA egion.
Figu e 5, also indica es he dis ibu ion o jobs ac oss he di e en ca ego ies du ing he ansi ion pe iod
in he MENA egion. Wi h apid ins alla ion o capaci ies up o 2035, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he
cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely lowe
sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2020 as he sha e o impo s is high. F om 2025onwa ds, as domes ic
p oduc ion capabili ies build up, a highe sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 wi h 15% o
o al jobs. The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish om 2020 onwa ds h ough he ansi ion
pe iod eaching jus 1% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and
s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ows h ough he ansi ion
pe iod up o 53% o o al jobs by 2050. This means mo e s able jobs o a egion su e ing om high
unemploymen amongs he you h and a g owing numbe o economic mig an s. A highe sha e o
in es men s in de eloping sus ainable powe in as uc u e could be he igh ca alys o c ea e long- e m
jobs in his egion (Iancho ichina e al., 2013). The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs inc eases om 435
jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 788 jobs/TWhel in 2025 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions.
Beyond 2025, i declines s eadily o a ound 509 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figu e 5.
4.4 Sub-Saha an A ica
Sub-Saha an A ica is a egion wi h a la ge numbe o eme ging economies, wi h jus a ound a 3% sha e
in global GDP (IMF, 2017), bu is poised o be one o he as es g owing egions in he wo ld. Wi h apidly
g owing popula ion, unp eceden ed economic p og ess and need o eliable, mode n ene gy access, he
o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 484 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o ise o 2747 TWh by 2050
(IEA, 2016). The enewable ene gy sec o is g owing in Sub-Saha an A ica, wi h 14 coun ies ha ing se
hemsel es a ge s and doubling in es men s o abo e 5 billion USD, be ween 2014 and 2015 (BNEF,
2017).
Coun ies such as Sou h A ica, Kenya, E hiopia and Rwanda ha e accele a ed hei enewable ene gy
adop ion and a e leading he ene gy ansi ion ac oss Sub-Saha an A ica (BonelliE ede, 2017). As his
end is obse ed o pick up ac oss he egion du ing he ansi ion pe iod wi h sola PV eme ging as he
dominan sou ce o powe gene a ion by 2050 (Ba asa e al., 2018; Ram e al., 2017a). Likewise, sola PV
is obse ed o be he p ime job c ea o h ough he ansi ion pe iod, wi h 65% o he o al jobs c ea ed by
2050, as depic ed in Figu e 6. A ai sha e o jobs a e c ea ed by wind powe (283 housand jobs in 2025)
and bioene gy (377 housand jobs in 2025) ini ially, which end o s abilise la e on, as sola PV is a mo e
cos compe i i e beyond 2030. Jobs c ea ed by s o age echnologies mainly d i en by ba e ies, inc ease in
sha e beyond 2030 and con inue o g ow up o 2050 (862 housand jobs in he ba e y sec o ). While, jobs
associa ed wi h ossil uels, mainly coal and gas powe gene a ion, apidly diminish ac oss he egion.
O e all, he numbe o di ec ene gy jobs a e seen o g ow massi ely om jus unde 1.2 million in 2015
o nea ly 5.5 million by 2050.
Figu e 6: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Sub-Saha an A ica.
Figu e 6, also indica es he dis ibu ion o jobs ac oss he di e en ca ego ies du ing he ansi ion pe iod
ac oss Sub-Saha an A ica. Wi h amp up o ins alla ions up o 2035, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he
cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely lowe
sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2020, as he sha e o impo s is high. F om 2025 onwa ds, as domes ic
p oduc ion capabili ies build up, a highe sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 wi h 19% o
o al jobs. The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish h ough he ansi ion pe iod om 63% o
o al jobs in 2015 o jus 3% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable
and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ow h ough he ansi ion
pe iod eaching 42% o o al jobs by 2050. This could be he boos equi ed o employmen p ospec s in
Sub-Saha an A ica, which a e p esen ly s agna ing due o low p oduc i i y a ibu ed o he egion’s lack
o economic di e si ica ion (B ookings, 2017). The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs inc ease om 2399
jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 3235 jobs/TWhel in 2025 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions.
Beyond 2025, i declines s eadily o a ound 1990 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figu e 6. The elec ici y
demand speci ic jobs a e he highes in compa ison o all o he egions ac oss he wo ld as Sub-Saha an
A ica con inues o ha e a high labou in ensi y h ough he ansi ion pe iod ( he labou in ensi y ac o s
can be e e ed o in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial).
4.5 SAARC
SAARC consis s o some o he mos as -paced g owing economies, wi h a ound 9% sha e o global GDP
and 21% o he global popula ion (IMF, 2017). Wi h apidly g owing popula ion, unp eceden ed economic
p og ess and need o eliable mode n ene gy se ices, he o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 1694
TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o ise o 6979 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Gulagi e al., 2018). The egion lead
by India wi h a ound 50 GW o sola and wind powe capaci y has ecen ly wi nessed an inc easing shi
owa ds enewable ene gy (Buckley and Shah, 2018). D i en by policy ini ia i es and he emendous d op
in cos s ha e made wind and sola PV he mos a ac i e p oposi ions o powe gene a ion.
In he las 2 qua e s o 2017, only enewable ene gy capaci ies we e added in he Indian powe sec o
(Sau abh, 2018) and S i Lanka has al eady made plans o gene a e 100% o hei powe om enewable
ene gy sou ces (ADB & UNDP, 2017). This end is se o con inue wi h sola PV complemen ed by
ba e ies o domina e he powe sha e by 2050. Simila ly, sola PV (4.18 million jobs) and ba e y s o age
(894 housand jobs) sec o s eme ge as he majo job c ea o s ac oss he egion by 2050 as shown in Figu e
7. Wind powe (504 housand in 2030), hyd opowe (297 housand jobs in 2020) and bioene gy (523
housand jobs in 2025) c ea e a ai sha e o he jobs in he ini ial pe iods o he ansi ion. Beyond 2030,
he sha es dec ease and s abilise un il 2050. The s o age sec o led by ba e ies c ea e a ai sha e o he jobs
in 2030 wi h 23% o o al jobs and con inue o con ibu e un il 2050 wi h a s eady sha e. Whe eas, he jobs
associa ed p ima ily wi h coal and gas powe gene a ion diminish apidly. The o al numbe o di ec ene gy
jobs inc ease apidly om o e 4.2 million in 2015 o jus o e 7 million by 2030, he ea e s abilising
a ound 5.8 million by 2050. This d op is p ima ily due o he apid amping up o powe capaci y
ins alla ions o ensu e ene gy access o he as numbe o un-elec i ied people in his egion up o 2030.
Beyond ha , capaci y addi ion would be a a slowe a e o ul il economic de elopmen .
Figu e 7: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in he SAARC egion.
The ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs c ea ed in he SAARC egion h ough he ansi ion pe iod is shown
in Figu e 7. Wi h a apid amp up o ins alla ions up o 2030, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion
and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies wi h 40% o o al jobs in 2030. While, manu ac u ing
jobs inc ease in sha e du ing 2020 o 2030, wi h some sha es o expo s (domes ic manu ac u ing c ea es
25% and expo s c ea es 2% o o al jobs in 2030). The SAARC egion is an impo e as well as an expo e
o powe gene a ion echnologies ( he sha es o impo and expo can be e e ed o Table A3 in he
Appendix). Beyond 2030, as p oduc ion capabili ies in o he impo ing egions build up, a ela i ely lowe
sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 (a ound 18% o o al jobs). The sha e o uel ela ed
jobs con inues o diminish h ough he ansi ion pe iod, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by
enewable and s o age echnologies ( om 49% o o al jobs in 2015 o jus 1% o o al jobs by 2050).
Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs con inues o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h
48% o o al jobs by 2050. The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs dec ease s eadily om 2508 jobs/TWhel in
2015 o 2335 jobs/TWhel in 2030 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2030,
i declines apidly o a ound 834 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figu e 7. The elec ici y demand speci ic
jobs ha e a apid decline as mos coun ies o SAARC ha e apidly g owing economies, which a e expec ed
o wi ness be e economic condi ions beyond 2030. Fu he imp o ing up o 2050, esul ing in a declining
labou in ensi y h ough he ansi ion pe iod ( he labou in ensi y ac o s can be e e ed o in he
Supplemen a y Ma e ial).
4.6 No heas Asia
The No heas Asian egion is comp ised o he as es g owing economies, wi h a ound a 25% sha e o he
global GDP and 22% o he global popula ion (Haysom e al., 2015). Wi h apid indus ialisa ion,
unp eceden ed economic p og ess and a soa ing appe i e o ene gy, he o al elec ici y consump ion ha
is a ound 6847 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o soa up o 15,078 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Bogdano and
B eye , 2016). Renewable ene gy is high on he agenda o coun ies ac oss No heas Asia, wi h excellen
wind and sola esou ces pa icula ly in Mongolia (B eye e al., 2015).
China has been leading no only in he egion, bu also globally wi h a cumula i e sola PV capaci y o
a ound 130 GW and 163 GW o wind by he end o 2017 (F ank u School - UNEP & BNEF, 2018).
Addi ionally, Japan and Sou h Ko ea ha e de eloped plans o inc ease he sha e o enewables in hei
espec i e powe mixes (BNEF, 2017). Renewable ene gy capaci ies a e obse ed o inc ease apidly in he
nex couple o decades ac oss he egion (Ram e al., 2017a). Likewise, jobs a e c ea ed om mainly wind
(2 million jobs in 2025) and sola PV (3.5 million jobs in 2025) in he ea ly s ages o he ansi ion. F om
2030 onwa ds, sola PV is obse ed o be he main sou ce o powe gene a ion and co espondingly c ea ing
he mos numbe o jobs (6.7 million jobs by 2050) as indica ed in Figu e 8. S o age echnologies led by
ba e ies a e obse ed o c ea e a ai sha e o jobs om 2030 onwa ds and con inue un o 2050 wi h 1.3
million jobs in he ba e y sec o . Whe eas, jobs associa ed wi h he coal sec o a e seen o dec ease apidly.
The o al di ec jobs a e seen o inc ease om a ound 8 million in 2015 o 9.5 million by 2030 and a e a
decline, numbe o jobs ises back o a ound 10 million by 2050. P ima ily wi h he eplacemen s o powe
plan s beginning o inc ease in he pe iod om 2045 o 2050.
Figu e 8: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in No heas Asia.
The dis ibu ion o jobs acco ding o he di e en ca ego ies du ing he ansi ion pe iod ac oss No heas
Asia is shown in Figu e 8. Wi h a amp up o ins alla ions un il 2030, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he
cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies (39% o o al jobs in 2030). Manu ac u ing
jobs ha e a highe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2030, beyond which he sha es s abilise up o 2050. The
No heas Asian egion con ibu es a majo sha e o he global expo s o all o he egions ( e e o Table
A3 in he Appendix). Howe e , he sha e o jobs c ea ed by expo s educe beyond 2030, as o he egions
a e expec ed o inc ease hei domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies (expo s c ea ing jus 36 housand jobs by
2050). The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inue o diminish h ough he ansi ion pe iod om 43% o o al
jobs in 2015 o jus 1% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and
s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ows h ough he ansi ion
pe iod om 13% o o al jobs in 2015 o 48% o o al jobs in 2050. Addi ionally, decommissioning jobs
ha include eplacemen o end o li e powe plan s begin o c ea e some jobs by 2050 (293 housand jobs).
The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs is educed om 1187 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 675 jobs/TWhel by 2050,
as shown in Figu e 8. This is p ima ily due o he ising economic g ow h o he egion o ecas ed o he
u u e, esul ing in much lowe labou in ensi y by 2050.
4.7 Sou heas Asia
The Sou heas Asian egion including Aus alia, New Zealand and he Paci ic Islands is comp ised o
apidly g owing economies, wi h a ound 7% sha e o global GDP (IMF, 2017). Wi h apid economic
g ow h in mos o hese coun ies, he need o ene gy is e e inc easing and some o he mo e de eloped
coun ies ha e a high a e o consump ion o sus ain. In his con ex , he o al elec ici y consump ion ha
is a ound 1208 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o soa up o 4222 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Gulagi e al., 2017).
Renewables ha e g own apidly as a powe sou ce ac oss Sou heas Asia, wi h hei ins alled capaci y a
a ound 15 GW in 2016 (IRENA, 2018).
By he end o 2017, cumula i e ins alled capaci y o sola PV in Aus alia was a ound 6.4 GW wi h close
o 1.8 million oo op ins alla ions (AEC, 2018).Whe eas, New Zealand aims o p oduce 90% o hei
elec ici y om enewable sou ces by 2025 (Elec ici y Au ho i y, 2016; Fo d e al., 2017). Wi h he end
ac oss he egion indica ing a shi owa ds enewable ene gy, i can be obse ed ha sola PV along wi h
ba e y s o age eme ge as he p ima y powe sou ce by 2050 (Gulagi e al., 2017; Ram e al., 2017a).
Likewise, sola PV and ba e y s o age sec o s c ea e he majo sha e o jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod
as shown in Figu e 9. Biomass and hyd opowe c ea e a highe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2025, bu
con inue o c ea e some jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod. Wind powe sec o c ea es some jobs du ing
2020 o 2030 (96 housand jobs in 2025), beyond which ewe jobs a e c ea ed as sola PV becomes mo e
cos e ec i e and ins alla ions inc ease in sha e wi h 2.1 million jobs by 2050. The s o age sec o led by
ba e ies c ea e a ai sha e o he jobs om 2030 onwa ds and con inues h ough o 2050 wi h 414 housand
jobs in he ba e y sec o by 2050. This could happen lo ea lie as coun ies such as Aus alia a e al eady
wi nessing bo h u ili y-scale as well as p osume scale ba e y ins alla ions (AEC, 2018). Jobs associa ed
wi h coal and gas powe gene a ion a e seen o decline apidly. The o al numbe o di ec ene gy jobs
inc eases signi ican ly om a ound 1.2 million in 2015 o o e 3.3 million in 2030, beyond which he e is
a decline o unde 2.5 million by 2040, a e which he e is a s eady inc ease up o a ound 3.2 million by
2050.

Figu e 9: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Sou heas Asia.
A ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs in he egion h ough he ansi ion pe iod is shown in Figu e 9. Wi h
apid ins alla ion o capaci ies up o 2030, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion
o powe gene a ion echnologies wi h 42% o o al jobs by 2030. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely
lowe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2020 as he sha e o impo s is ela i ely high. Beyond 2025 as
domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies build up, a high sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 ( om
21% o o al jobs in 2035 o 17% o o al jobs by 2050). The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish
om 2020 onwa ds h ough he ansi ion pe iod eaching jus 2% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional
powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and
main enance jobs con inues o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h 49% o o al jobs by 2050. The
elec ici y demand speci ic jobs inc eases om 997 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 1541 jobs/TWhel in 2030 wi h
he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2030, i declines s eadily o a ound 748
jobs/TWhel by 2050, as highligh ed in Figu e 9.
4.8 No h Ame ica
No h Ame ica is comp ised o he majo economic cen es o he wo ld, he USA, Canada and a apidly
eme ging economy in Mexico, wi h a 19% sha e o global GDP (IMF, 2017), and is one o he la ges
ene gy consump ion cen es ac oss he wo ld, wi h o al elec ici y consump ion o a ound 5284 TWh in
2015. This is es ima ed o ise o 7069 TWh by 2050, mainly d i en by he apid g ow h o Mexico as well
as s able elec ici y demands om he USA and Canada (IEA, 2016; Aghahosseini e al., 2017). Renewable
ene gy has been on he ise in he ecen yea s ac oss all he 3 coun ies. By he end o 2017, he USA had
ins alled capaci ies o 91 GW o wind and 52 GW o sola in i s powe mix. The e has been a s eady ise in
he sha e o enewable powe gene a ion in Canada and he la es powe gene a ion auc ions in Mexico
yielded some o he lowes bids, wi h an a e age in he ange o 17 – 18 €/MWh (Bellini, 2017; Rabson,
2017).
Mexico has se a a ge o a leas 35% o o al elec ici y gene a ion by 2024 o be om enewable ene gy
sou ces (REN21, 2017). The end is se o con inue in he USA and Canada oo, and a combina ion o
wind, sola PV, hyd opowe and ba e y s o age a e seen as he mos economical powe gene a ion sou ces
by 2050 (Ram e al., 2017a). Simila ly, sola PV (1.62 million jobs in 2025) along wi h wind (762 housand
jobs in 2025) eme ge o be he dominan job c ea ing sec o s du ing he ansi ion pe iod as shown in Figu e
10. Addi ionally, hyd opowe (180 housand jobs by 2050) and bioene gy (180 housand jobs by 2050)
c ea e a s able sha e o jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod. S o age led by ba e ies begin o c ea e jobs om
2025 onwa ds wi h a s able sha e un il 2050 wi h 330 housand jobs in he ba e y sec o . Whe eas, coal
and gas powe gene a ion associa ed jobs a e seen o decline apidly. O e all, jobs a e se o inc ease om
a ound 1.8 million in 2015 o nea ly 3.8 million, wi h he apid amp up in ins alla ions up o 2025 and hen
a s eady decline owa ds nea ly 2.7 million by 2050.
Figu e 10: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in No h Ame ica.
The ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs in No h Ame ica du ing he ansi ion pe iod is shown in Figu e 10.
Manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and ins alla ion o enewable ene gy echnologies c ea e a signi ican sha e o
jobs enabling he apid amp up o capaci y un il 2030, beyond his pe iod he e a e s able numbe o jobs
c ea ed in hese sec o s up o 2050. Fu he mo e, manu ac u ing includes bo h o local use as well as o
expo s o he o he egions as indica ed by Table A3 in he Appendix. The sha e o manu ac u ing jobs
along wi h a ma ginal sha e o expo s ini ially ise up o 2025 (21% and 1% o o al jobs espec i ely),
beyond which hey decline. As manu ac u ing is p edominan ly o ca e o he local powe ma ke s ac oss
No h Ame ica wi h domes ic manu ac u ing ha ing a sha e o 11% o o al jobs by 2050 and only 4
housand jobs o expo s. Fuel jobs con inue o decline h ough he ansi ion pe iod eaching jus 2% o
o al jobs by 2050, as capaci ies o con en ional powe plan s con inue o decline. On he con a y, ope a ion
and main enance jobs con inue o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod and become he majo job c ea ing
segmen by 2050 wi h 64% o o al jobs. As ope a ion and main enance jobs las h ough he li e ime o
powe plan s, hey o e ela i ely s able long- e m job p ospec s. This has he po en ial o c ea e a posi i e
e ec in many pa s o he USA ha su e om pe sis en unemploymen (U.S. Bu eau o Labo S a is ics,
2018). The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ini ially inc ease om 339 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 666
jobs/TWhel in 2025 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2025, i declines
s eadily o 374 jobs/TWhel by 2050 as highligh ed in Figu e 10.
4.9 Sou h Ame ica
The Sou h Ame ican egion including Cen al Ame ican coun ies is comp ised o g owing economies,
wi h a ound a 6% sha e o global GDP (IMF, 2017). Wi h s eadily inc easing economic g ow h in mos o
he coun ies, he need o ene gy is ising. The o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 1180 TWh in
2015, is es ima ed o ise up o 2420 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Ba bosa e al., 2017). A dis inc i e ea u e
o Sou h Ame ica’s powe gene a ion mix is he p edominance o hyd opowe and bioene gy, due la gely
o he high sha es in B azil, which gene a es abou 40% o he o al egional elec ici y (IRENA, 2016).
In ecen yea s, Sou h Ame ica has wi nessed an imp essi e g ow h in enewable powe gene a ion, whose
ins alled capaci ies ha e mo e han ipled be ween 2006 and 2015, om 10 GW o 36 GW (IRENA, 2016;
REN21, 2017). While in absolu e e ms mos o ha g ow h has been in bioene gy and onsho e wind
p ima ily in B azil, sola PV has also g own signi ican ly in Chile, Pe u and U uguay (BNEF, 2017). This
end is seen o apidly inc ease in he nea u u e and con inue h ough he ansi ion pe iod, wi h sola PV
complemen ed by hyd opowe , wind and biomass eme ging as he main sou ces o powe gene a ion by
2050 (Ba bosa e al., 2017; Ram e al., 2017a). Likewise, jobs a e p edominan ly c ea ed in he bioene gy
(827 housand jobs by 2020) and hyd opowe (357 housand jobs by 2025) sec o s du ing he ini ial pe iods
o he ansi ion up o 2030 as shown in Figu e 11. Beyond which, sola PV (930 housand jobs by 2050)
along wi h ba e y s o age (202 housand jobs by 2050) eme ge as he majo job c ea o s. S o age led by
ba e ies c ea e jobs om 2025 onwa ds and main ain a s able sha e (9% o o al jobs in 2025) h ough he
ansi ion pe iod un il 2050 (12% o o al jobs). Whe eas, coal, gas and oil powe gene a ion associa ed jobs
decline apidly, almos disappea ing by 2025. Wi h he b isk build up in ins alla ions, he o al numbe o
di ec ene gy jobs ise om jus unde 1 million o nea ly 2.2 million by 2025 and a s eady decline he ea e
owa ds 1.6 million by 2050.
Figu e 11: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Sou h Ame ica.
A ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs in Sou h Ame ica h ough he ansi ion pe iod is shown in Figu e 11.
Wi h apid ins alla ion o powe gene a ion capaci ies in he ini ial pe iod o 2020 o 2030, bulk o he jobs
a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies wi h 40% o o al jobs by
2025. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely lowe sha e in he ini ial pe iods wi h a high sha e o impo s.
Beyond 2030, he sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed o s abilise un il 2050 (16% o o al jobs), wi h
inc ease in domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies. The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish h ough
he ansi ion pe iod eaching jus 3% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by
enewable and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ows h ough
he ansi ion pe iod wi h 52% o o al jobs by 2050. A small sha e o decommissioning jobs wi h a ound
3% o o al jobs by 2050, a e c ea ed h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h he con inuous eplacemen o powe
plan s a he end o hei li e imes. The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs apidly inc eases om 835
jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 1669 jobs/TWhel in 2020 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions.
Beyond 2020, i declines s eadily o a ound 674 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as highligh ed in Figu e 11.
4.10 Global
Wi h he apid amp up o ins alled capaci ies, a g owing sha e o enewable powe gene a ion echnologies
a e obse ed o compensa e o he phasing ou o nuclea powe p oduc ion as well as o he con inually
educing numbe o ossil uel powe plan s globally (B eye e al., 2017b; Ram e al., 2017a). This s ong
g ow h in he enewable ene gy sec o leads o an inc ease o a ound 70% mo e di ec powe sec o jobs by
2030, and he o e all jobs c ea ed a e 1.5 imes as high in 2050, compa ed o 2015. Jobs c ea ed con inue
o ise o each a ound 34 million di ec ene gy jobs by 2030. Beyond his poin , hey decline o a ound he
30 million ange and hen s eadily inc ease o nea ly 35 million by 2050 as shown in Figu e 12. This is
mainly due o la ge capaci ies being eplaced and ein es ed in, as hey would each end o hei li e imes
wi h decommissioning con ibu ing a ound 2% o o al jobs by 2050. Sola PV (22.2 million jobs by 2050),
ba e ies (4.5 million jobs by 2050) and wind ene gy (1.4 million jobs by 2050) a e he majo job c ea ing
echnologies du ing he en i e ansi ion pe iod om 2015 o 2050. In he case o wind ene gy, a ound 7.3
million jobs a e c ea ed in he pe iod om 2020 o 2030, beyond ha , as sola PV becomes mo e cos
e ec i e hey d i e majo i y o he ins alla ions un il 2050 and jobs in he wind sec o a e s abilised. While,
hyd opowe (1.9 million jobs by 2050) and bioene gy (2.3 million jobs by 2050) c ea e a s able sha e o
jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod. Sola PV is obse ed o eplace coal as he majo job c ea ing ene gy
esou ce, wi h a ound 64% o o al jobs by 2050, as compa ed o jus 10% o o al jobs in 2015.
Addi ionally, i is well complemen ed by ba e y s o age c ea ing a ound 13% o o al jobs by 2050.
Whe eas, jobs in he coal, gas and nuclea powe sec o s a e obse ed o decline apidly as shown in Figu e
12.
Figu e 12: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed
based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he
ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 globally.
A ca ego y-wise classi ica ion o jobs in manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and ins alla ion, ope a ion and
main enance, uel supply, decommissioning and ansmission c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om
2015 o 2050 is shown in Figu e 12. Fuel sec o jobs a e se o decline om 44% o he o al jobs in 2015
o jus a ound 2% o he o al jobs by 2050, as ossil uels and nuclea powe capaci ies decline. On he
o he hand, i can be obse ed ha ope a ion and main enance jobs ha e he mos signi ican inc ease in he
sha e o he o al jobs c ea ed om 15% in 2015 o 50% by 2050. This indica es ha he ansi ion owa ds
a 100% enewable powe sys em enables c ea ion o mo e s able jobs, which can con ibu e o s able
economic g ow h o coun ies mainly in he de eloping egions o he wo ld and p o ide a means o ackling
you h unemploymen (Ali, 2014). In many pa s o he wo ld, his could be a ca alys o imp o e social
wellbeing as well as poli ical s abili y (Kollewe, 2010). Fu he mo e, Figu e 12 also illus a es he
de elopmen o he elec ici y demand speci ic jobs, which emain qui e s able h ough he ansi ion pe iod.
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Appendix
Table A1: Employmen ac o s used in he es ima ion o jobs c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015
o 2050. (Abb e ia ions: M c. – Manu ac u ing, C&I – Cons uc ion and Ins alla ion, O&M – Ope a ion
and Main enance, Dcm. – Decommissioning)
Technologies
M c.
[Job-y s
/MW]
C&I
[Job-y s
/MW]
O&M
[Jobs/
MW]
Fuel
[Jobs/
PJ]
Dcm.
[Job-y s
/MW]
Sou ce
Wind onsho e
4.70
3.20
0.30
0.72
Ru o i z e al., 2015
Wind o sho e
15.60
8.00
0.20
2.99
Ru o i z e al., 2015
PV
U ili y-scale
6.70
13.00
0.70
0.80
Ru o i z e al., 2015
PV
Roo op
6.70
26.00
1.40
1.21
Sola Powe Eu ope, 2015
Biomass
2.90
14.00
1.50
29.90
0.32
Ru o i z e al., 2015
Hyd o Dam
3.50
7.40
0.20
2.22
Ru o i z e al., 2015
Hyd o RoR
8.75
18.50
0.50
5.55
Assuming 2.5 imes he
alue as Hyd o Dam
Geo he mal
3.90
6.80
0.40
0.21
Ru o i z e al., 2015
CSP
4.00
8.00
0.60
1.33
Ru o i z e al., 2015
Biogas PP
2.90
14.00
2.25
29.90
0.32
Ru o i z e al., 2015,
1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs
as Biomass PP
Was e- o-
ene gy
2.90
14.00
2.25
29.90
0.32
Ru o i z e al., 2015,
1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs
as Biomass PP
Me hana ion
2.90
14.00
2.25
0.32
Ru o i z e al., 2015,
1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs
as Biomass PP
Coal PP (Ha d
Coal)
5.40
11.20
0.14
39.70
1.65
Ru o i z e al., 2015
Nuclea PP
1.30
11.80
0.60
0.001
(Jobs/
GWh)
0.95
(Jobs/
MW)
Ru o i z e al., 2015
OCGT
0.93
1.30
0.14
15.10
0.21
Ru o i z e al., 2015
CCGT
0.93
1.30
0.14
15.10
0.21
Ru o i z e al., 2015
S eam Tu bine
0.93
1.30
0.14
0.21
Assuming same as Gas
Tu bine
P H
1.86
2.60
0.28
0.21
Assuming 2 imes he alue
as GT
ICE
0.93
1.30
0.21
15.10
0.44
Ru o i z e al., 2015,
1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs
as GT
Gas S o age
0.00
0.12
0.01
0.11
Go . o UK, 2015
P G
1.86
2.60
0.28
0.21
Assuming 2 imes he alue
as GT
Ba e y la ge-
scale
16.90
10.80
0.40
0.80
0.5 imes o p osume
s o age
Ba e y
p osume
16.90
21.60
0.80
1.21
De i ed om
USDOE, 2017
Pumped Hyd o
S o age
7.00
14.80
0.40
4.44
Assuming 2 imes he
alues o Hyd o Dam
A-CAES
8.45
10.80
0.40
0.40
Assuming 1/2 he alues
o Ba e ies (la ge-scale)
T ansmission
Employmen ac o wi h ega d o in es men s –
5045 jobs/b€
The B a le G oup, 2011
The decommissioning employmen ac o s a e de i ed om (RFF, 2017), (E onik, 2010) and (Oldham,
2009). Fu he de ails can be ound in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial.
Table A2: Regional employmen mul iplie s, based on labou p oduc i i y ac oss he di e en egions used
in he es ima ion o jobs c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050. (Abb e ia ions: EUR –
Eu ope, MENA – Middle Eas and No h A ica, SSA – Sub-Saha an A ica, SAARC – Sou h Asian
Associa ion o Regional Coope a ion, NEA – No heas Asia, SEA – Sou heas Asia, NA – No h Ame ica,
SA – Sou h Ame ica)
Regions
Regional Employmen Mul iplie s
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EUR
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.13
1.17
1.19
1.20
1.22
Eu asia
1.86
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.65
1.65
1.65
MENA
2.26
1.94
1.66
1.51
1.37
1.32
1.28
1.23
SSA
7.49
6.42
5.51
5.00
4.54
4.38
4.24
4.09
SAARC
5.18
3.99
3.07
2.56
2.13
2.00
1.88
1.76
NEA
2.22
1.89
1.60
1.50
1.41
1.42
1.42
1.43
SEA
2.52
2.20
1.93
1.77
1.63
1.58
1.52
1.47
NA
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
SA
3.14
2.69
2.31
2.10
1.90
1.84
1.78
1.72
The egional employmen mul iplie s, which a e based on labou p oduc i i y ac o s a e de i ed om
(ILO, 2016) and (IMF, 2017). Fu he de ails can be ound in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial and a desc ip ion
is p o ided in he me hods sec ion.
Table A3: Sha e o local manu ac u ing and co esponding sha e o impo s ac oss he di e en egions
used in he es ima ion o jobs c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050. (Abb e ia ions: EUR
– Eu ope, MENA – Middle Eas and No h A ica, SSA – Sub-Saha an A ica, SAARC – Sou h Asian
Associa ion o Regional Coope a ion, NEA – No heas Asia, SEA – Sou heas Asia, NA – No h Ame ica,
SA – Sou h Ame ica)
Regions
Sha e o Local Manu ac u ing [%]
Region o Impo /
Impo Sha es [%]
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EUR
NA
SAARC
NEA
EUR
90
90
90
90
100
100
100
100
-
25
-
75
Eu asia
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100
25
-
25
50
MENA
30
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
25
-
25
50
SSA
30
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
25
15
10
50
SAARC
70
80
90
100
100
100
100
100
25
15
-
60
NEA
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
-
-
-
-
SEA
90
90
90
90
100
100
100
100
30
-
30
40
NA
80
90
90
90
100
100
100
100
50
-
-
50
SA
50
60
70
80
90
100
100
100
25
50
-
25
The de elopmen o he sha es o local manu ac u ing in he di e en egions du ing he ene gy ansi ion
pe iod om 2015 o 2050 and he co esponding egions o impo , along wi h he sha es o impo a e
based on da a ga he ed om (Ru o i z e al., 2015), (UNIDO, 2013) and (PwC, 2017).
Vi ae
Au ho 1
Name
Manish Ram
Ins i u ion
LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
Biog aphy
Conduc ing doc o al esea ch a Sola Economy G oup, LUT. Focusing
on socioeconomic impac s o ene gy ansi ions ac oss he wo ld.
Publica ions a
h ps://www. esea chga e.ne /p o ile/Manish_Ram2/con ibu ions
Au ho 2
Name
A man Aghahosseini
Ins i u ion
LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
Biog aphy
Conduc ing doc o al esea ch a Sola Economy G oup, LUT. Focusing
on ene gy ansi ions in he MENA egion and Ame icas and explo ing
complemen a y echnologies o enable he ansi ion. Publica ions a
h ps://www. esea chga e.ne /p o ile/A man_Aghahosseini/con ibu ions
Au ho 3
Name
Ch is ian B eye
Ins i u ion
LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland
Biog aphy
Heading he Sola Economy G oup a LUT. Many yea s o academic
expe ience in he ene gy domain. Focusing on ene gy ansi ions
owa ds ull sus ainabili y, in global-local pe spec i e. Publica ions a
h ps://www.scopus.com/au hid/de ail.u i?au ho Id=39761029000