Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050

This is a e sion o a publica ion in Please ci e he publica ion as ollows: DOI: Copy igh o he o iginal publica ion: This is a pa allel published e sion o an o iginal publica ion. This e sion can di e om he o iginal published a icle. published by Job c ea ion du ing he global ene gy ansi ion owa ds 100% enewable powe sys em by 2050 Ram Manish, Aghahosseini A man, B eye Ch is ian Ram, M., Aghahosseini, A., B eye , C. (2019). Job c ea ion du ing he global ene gy ansi ion owa ds 100% enewable powe sys em by 2050. Technological Fo ecas ing and Social Change. DOI: 10.1016/j. ech o e.2019.06.008 Au ho 's accep ed manusc ip (AAM) Else ie Technological Fo ecas ing and Social Change 10.1016/j. ech o e.2019.06.008 © 2019 Else ie Inc. Ti le: Job c ea ion du ing he global ene gy ansi ion owa ds 100% enewable powe sys em by 2050 Au ho s: Manish Ram*, A man Aghahosseini, Ch is ian B eye LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland *Co esponding Au ho . Full name: Manish Ram A ilia ion: LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland Tel (Mobile): +358 40 8171944 Fax: +358 5 621 2350 E-mail add ess: manish. a[email p o ec ed] Second Au ho : Full name: A man Aghahosseini A ilia ion: LUT Uni e si y, Ylipis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland Tel: +358 294 462 111 Fax: +358 5 621 2350 Email: a man.aghahos[email p o ec ed] Thi d (Las ) Au ho : Full name: Ch is ian B eye A ilia ion: LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland Tel: +358 294 462 111 Fax: +358 5 621 2350 Email: ch is ian.b eye @lu . i Job c ea ion du ing he global ene gy ansi ion owa ds 100% enewable powe sys em by 2050 Manish Ram*, A man Aghahosseini, Ch is ian B eye LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland *Co esponding Au ho . E-mail add ess: manish. am@lu . i Abs ac Aside om educing he ene gy sec o ’s nega i e impac s on he en i onmen , enewable powe gene a ion echnologies a e c ea ing new weal h and becoming impo an job c ea o s o he 21s cen u y. Employmen c ea ion o e he du a ion o he global ene gy ansi ion is an impo an aspec o explo e, which could ha e policy ami ica ions a ound he wo ld. This esea ch ocuses on he employmen impac o an accele a ed up ake o enewable elec ici y gene a ion ha sees he wo ld de i e 100% o i s elec ici y om enewable sou ces by 2050, in o de o mee he goals se by he Pa is Ag eemen . An analy ical job c ea ion assessmen o he global powe sec o om 2015 o 2050 is es ima ed and p esen ed on a egional basis. I is ound ha he global di ec jobs associa ed wi h he elec ici y sec o inc eases om abou 21 million in 2015 o nea ly 35 million in 2050. Sola PV, ba e ies and wind powe a e he majo job c ea ing echnologies du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050. This is he i s global s udy p esen ing job c ea ion p ojec ions o ene gy s o age. The esul s indica e ha a global ene gy ansi ion will ha e an o e all posi i e impac on he u u e s abili y and g ow h o economies a ound he wo ld. Keywo ds Jobs, Employmen , Renewable Ene gy, Ene gy S o age, Ene gy T ansi ion Abb e ia ions A-CAES Adiaba ic Comp essed Ai Ene gy S o age BNEF Bloombe g New Ene gy Finance BPS Bes Policies Scena io CAPEX Capi al Expendi u es CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Tu bine CPS Cu en Policies Scena io CSP Concen a ed Sola The mal Powe EU Eu opean Union FLH Full Load Hou s GDP G oss Domes ic P oduc GHG G eenhouse Gases GW Gigawa IEA In e na ional Ene gy Agency IMF In e na ional Mone a y Fund IPCC In e na ional Panel on Clima e Change ILO In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion IRENA In e na ional Renewable Ene gy Agency LCOE Le elised Cos o Elec ici y MW Megawa OCGT Open Cycle Gas Tu bine OPEX Ope a ional Expendi u es P G Powe - o-Gas P H Powe - o-Hea PV Pho o ol aics TW Te awa USD Uni ed S a es Dolla 1. In oduc ion The isks and impac s posed by de as a ing socioeconomic consequences o clima e inac ion ha e been conspicuously s essed in he In e na ional Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC) 4 h and 5 h assessmen epo s (IPCC, 2007, 2014a) as well as he S e n e iew (S e n, 2007). In his ega d, he Pa is Ag eemen , nego ia ed a he 21s Con e ence o he Pa ies (COP21) in 2015 (UNFCCC, 2015), has se an impo an ounda ion on which he global communi y can build a sus ainable u u e. Wi h elec ici y gene a ion accoun ing o a ound 25% o global g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, educing emissions in his sec o is a c i ical componen in he ansi ion owa ds a low ca bon de elopmen pa hway (IPCC, 2014b). A global ene gy ansi ion is well unde way wi h nea ly 160 GW o enewables (wi hou conside ing la ge hyd opowe ) been added in 2017, o which 98 GW was sola and 53 GW wind powe (F ank u School - UNEP & BNEF, 2018; GWEC, 2018). In addi ion, umbling echnology cos s ha e p opelled in es men s in enewable ene gy powe gene a ion and om a le elised cos o ene gy (LCOE) ou look, enewables ha e become a mo e a ac i e in es men p oposi ion han ossil uels in many coun ies a ound he wo ld (Ram e al., 2017a; Ram e al., 2018). The e ec s o he new ene gy sys em would no be es ic ed o ene gy p oduc ion only, bu would ha e consequences o he whole socie y (B eye , e al., 2017a). Ene gy use is ei he he cause o he acili a o o economic g ow h. Mo eo e , su icien e idence o e he yea s poin o he posi i e co ela ion be ween ene gy use, economic g ow h and employmen (CDC & ODI, 2016). As he global ene gy sys em is a majo economic sec o wi h a sha e o a ound 8% in global g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) (IER, 2010), he p ospec s o in es men and employmen in he sec o a e signi ican o economies a ound he wo ld. The physical implica ions o a shi owa ds g ea e sha es o enewable elec ici y such as addi ional gene a ion capaci ies, in es men needs and educ ion in GHG emissions ha e been explo ed o a ange o scena ios in many coun ies as well as globally, as enlis ed and analysed in Child e al. (2018). Howe e , employmen associa ed wi h he elec ici y sec o and he impac o an accele a ed up ake o enewables on employmen c ea ion in he sec o , has ecei ed ela i ely lesse a en ion. A e iew was pe o med by Sheikh e al. (2016) o de e mine he c i e ia ha a e elemen s o he social and poli ical pe spec i es, which ound ha enewable ene gy has he po en ial o play a signi ican ole in ul illing he employmen c i e ion. As in o he economic and echnological shi s, ansi ioning o a low ca bon economy will esul in addi ional jobs being c ea ed, jobs being subs i u ed, jobs being elimina ed and exis ing jobs being ans o med (UNEP, 2008). Combining di e en me hods, as p oposed by Fo es e al. (2015), is a way o ad ance scena io building by in eg a ing di e en collec i e hinking and o he socioeconomic pa ame e s. As he ene gy sec o inc easingly mo es hand in hand wi h economic de elopmen , social p io i ies and en i onmen al needs, an in eg a ion o social p ocesses wi h echnical and economic analyses o ene gy sys ems is he e o e a necessi y. In pu iew, his esea ch e alua es he hypo hesis o sound economic impac s om ansi ioning o a sus ainable economy by de e mining he employmen e ec s o achie ing 100% enewable powe supply by 2050, ac oss he wo ld s uc u ed in o 9 majo egions. The wo ld is ca ego ised in o Eu ope, Eu asia, Middle Eas and No h A ica (MENA), Sub-Saha an A ica, Sou h Asian Associa ion o Regional Coope a ion (SAARC), No heas Asia, Sou heas Asia, No h Ame ica and Sou h Ame ica. The ansi ion o powe sec o s ac oss hese egions, as showcased in B eye e al. (2017b) and Ram e al. (2017a), se es as he basis o es ima ing jobs c ea ed du ing he ansi ion pe iod om 2015 o 2050. Addi ionally, job c ea ion po en ial is es ima ed on a echnology-wise basis as well as on a ca ego y- wise basis du ing he ene gy ansi ion o p o ide be e insigh s on he ypes o jobs c ea ed. Mo eo e , his esea ch is he i s o es ima e po en ial job c ea ion by he a ious s o age echnologies du ing he ene gy ansi ion on a global basis. This is p ima ily due o he inno a i e aspec s o he LUT Ene gy Sys em T ansi ion modelling ool (B eye e al., 2017b; Ram e al., 2017a), which analyses powe sys ems ac oss he wo ld on an hou ly basis enabling de ailed analyses o s o age equi emen s. Fu he , his esea ch p esen s an o e iew o exis ing li e a u e in sec ion 2. The de ailed me hods, a ious assump ions and o he ele an ma e ial in es ima ing job c ea ion du ing he ene gy ansi ion a e highligh ed in sec ion 3. The ollowing sec ion 4 p esen s he esul s on a egional basis and displays he jobs c ea ed on a echnology basis as well as on a ca ego y basis. In addi ion, sec ion 5 discusses he esul s om a global pe spec i e and d aws a ew compa isons o o he such s udies. Finally, sec ion 6 d aws conclusions and possible implica ions o he esul s. 2. Li e a u e Re iew In ecen yea s, he job c ea ion po en ial o enewable ene gy echnologies in he con ex o he ene gy ansi ion has ecei ed a en ion om some o he s akeholde s including academia, go e nmen agencies, p i a e sec o and he ci il socie y (Child e al., 2018). The In e na ional Renewable Ene gy Agency (IRENA) has es ima ed jobs associa ed wi h enewable ene gy o ise o a ound 16.7 million by 2030 (IRENA, 2013) and hei annual e iew o global employmen ela ed o enewable ene gy shows ha 10.3 million people we e employed in 2017 (IRENA, 2018). Jacobson e al. (2014) es ima ed jobs c ea ed and jobs los o a long- e m sus ainable ene gy in as uc u e ha supplies 100% o ene gy in all sec o s (elec ici y, anspo a ion, hea ing/cooling, and indus y) om wind, wa e , and sola powe (wi hou ossil uels, bio uels, o nuclea powe ) o he s a e o Cali o nia and ound ha i will c ea e a ne o 220,000 40-yea cons uc ion plus ope a ion jobs (442,200 new 40-y cons uc ion jobs and 190,600 new 40-y ope a ion jobs, less 413,000 jobs los in cu en Cali o nia ossil- and nuclea -based indus ies). Fu he , Jacobson e al. (2017) es ima e ha hei main scena io by 2050 ( ha is elec ici y gene a ion wi h 100% wind, wa e , and sola powe o all ene gy sec o s) would c ea e a ne o 24.3 million pe manen , ull- ime jobs ac oss 139 coun ies o he wo ld. This es ima e includes c ea ion o 52 million new ongoing jobs o 100% enewable elec ici y gene a ion and ansmission supplying o highly elec i ied ene gy sec o s (including powe , hea and anspo ) up o 2050, while 27.7 million jobs a e los in he cu en ossil uel, bio uel, and nuclea indus ies (Jacobson e al., 2017). Va ious edi ions o he Ene gy [R]e olu ion, published since 2007, p ojec p obable employmen ou comes ac oss a b oad ange o scena ios (G eenpeace In e na ional, 2015). The la es edi ion o e s a global es ima e o ene gy sec o employmen o be 46.1 million by 2030 o he Ad anced Ene gy [R]e olu ion scena io. Ne e heless, he e a e s udies ha ha e es ima ed he impac o enewable ene gy de elopmen on job c ea ion o be nega i e, esul ing in job losses. Almu ai i e al. (2018) show a loss o 4.45 million jobs wo ldwide up o 2030 in he Renewable and Nuclea Ene gy (RNE) scena io (based on he p edic ions o he in e na ional ene gy ou look) compa ed o he business as usual (BAU) scena io. This s udy (Almu ai i e al., 2018) has made an e o o es ima e bo h he di ec and indi ec jobs associa ed wi h he di e en ene gy scena ios by assessing he o e all impac s on he g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) o di e en coun ies. Howe e , Ma kandya e al. (2016) ound he ne employmen impac s om he ans o ma ion o he Eu opean Union ene gy sec o in he pe iod 1995–2009, when he Eu opean Union’s ene gy s uc u e wen h ough a signi ican shi , away om he mo e ca bon in ensi e sou ces, owa ds gas and enewables o be posi i e. Mo eo e , he esea ch es ima ed he ne employmen gene a ed om his s uc u al change a 530,000 jobs in he Eu opean Union and u he analysis showed ha he change in he inpu s uc u e o he Eu opean elec ici y and gas supply sec o , mo i a ed signi ican ly by he desi e o shi owa ds a g een economy, had a ne posi i e impac on employmen (Ma kandya e al., 2016). Whe eas, Böh inge e al. (2013) sugges wi h a compu able gene al equilib ium analysis o subsidised elec ici y p oduc ion om enewable ene gy sou ces (RES-E) in Ge many ha he p ospec s o employmen and wel a e gains a e qui e limi ed and hinge c ucially on he le el o he subsidy a e and he inancing mechanism. To he con a y, by linking in es men s in ene gy sec o and jobs c ea ed, Ga e -Pel ie (2017) inds ha on a e age, 2.65 ull- ime equi alen (FTE) jobs a e c ea ed om 1 million USD spending in ossil uels, while ha same amoun o spending would c ea e 7.49 o 7.72 FTE jobs in enewables o ene gy e iciency. I is u he concluded ha each 1 million USD shi ed om b own (includes ossil uels and nuclea ) o g een ene gy will c ea e a ne inc ease o 5 jobs (Ga e -Pel ie , 2017). The esul s o hese s udies a e di icul , i no impossible o compa e due o hei di e ing assump ions and modelling app oaches. Howe e , one ecu ing heme seems o be he posi i e con ibu ion o high sha es o enewable ene gy up ake o he labou ma ke he eby gene a ing ample employmen . Employmen ends a y signi ican ly ac oss he di e en ene gy gene a ion echnologies. The e a e a numbe o iden i iable me hods ha ha e been used o quan i y employmen impac s o he changing ene gy sec o and ha e been well documen ed in li e a u e e iew s udies, such as B ei schop e al. (2011), Came on and Zwaan (2015) and Meye and Somme (2014). Howe e , in gene al, he a ious me hods applied can be ca ego ised in o bo om-up and op-down app oaches, o mo e speci ically as using he analy ical o inpu –ou pu (IO) models (Wo ld Bank, 2011). Addi ionally, Lle a e al. (2013) and Hondo and Mo iizumi (2017), highligh a alue-chain app oach and a li e-cycle app oach espec i ely, o es ima ing job c ea ion mainly om enewable ene gy deploymen . Fu he mo e, he a ious s udies conside di e en ypes o jobs associa ed wi h he ene gy indus y; he common adop ed classi ica ion is ‘di ec ’, ‘indi ec ’ and ‘induced’ jobs. IRENA (2011) elabo a es a clea and ope a ional de ini ion o hese e ms, as well as hei in e p e a ion ac oss s udies. Lambe and Sil a (2012) ind ha analy ical s udies using ex ensi e su eys a e ound o be mo e app op ia e o egional s udies, while inpu –ou pu me hods a e be e sui ed o na ional and in e na ional s udies. In Jacobson e al. (2014; 2017), es ima es o baseline jobs pe uni ene gy in hei main scena io a e based on Na ional Renewable Ene gy Labo a o y’s (NREL) Jobs and Economic De elopmen Impac s (JEDI) models (NREL, 2013). These a e economic IO models wi h se e al assump ions and unce ain ies. In con as , IRENA (2013) and G eenpeace In e na ional (2015) adop simple analy ical app oaches o es ima ing job impac s ha also ha e a high le el o anspa ency. This en ails u ilising job in ensi ies o employmen ac o s (EF), de ined as he numbe o jobs de i ed om a ce ain ene gy echnology capaci y addi ion o in es men . The EF app oach u ilised o es ima es o job c ea ion po en ial in G eenpeace’s ene gy scena ios is documen ed by Ru o i z and A he on (2009), an imp o ed e sion is p esen ed in Ru o i z and Ha is (2012) and he la es e sion in Ru o i z e al. (2015). This esea ch is an e o o u he e ine he me hods and conduc a mo e comp ehensi e analysis o he ne jobs c ea ed du ing an ene gy ansi ion, which includes a b oad ange o echnologies and is he i s o es ima e job c ea ion po en ial o he complemen a y s o age echnologies. The esea ch has also included es ima es o decommissioning jobs ac oss he a ious powe gene a ion echnologies c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion up o 2050. 3. Me hods and Ma e ials Fo his esea ch, an analy ical app oach owa ds es ima ing jobs in an ene gy ansi ion scena io was adop ed. Mo eo e , he me hods we e based on he app oach highligh ed in Ru o i z e al. (2015) and u he modi ied and imp o ed o be e esul s as well as applied o a b oade ange o echnologies. 3.1 The Employmen Fac o app oach Jobs gene a ed du ing he global ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 a e es ima ed u ilising he EF app oach, adop ed om Ru o i z e al. (2015). The EF me hod was u ilised amongs he o he me hods (B ei schop e al., 2011), due o i s simplici y and e ec i eness in es ima ing di ec employmen associa ed wi h ene gy gene a ion, s o age and ansmission. One o he main ad an ages o he EF app oach is ha , i can be modi ied o speci ic con ex s, as well as applied o e a ange o ene gy scena ios. The Figu e 1 gi es an o e iew o he me hods u ilised o es ima e jobs c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 ac oss he di e en egions. Figu e 1: Me hod o es ima ion o job c ea ion du ing he ene gy ansi ion. Abb e ia ions: Employmen Fac o (EF), Capi al Expendi u e (CAPEX) and Ope a ional Expendi u e (OPEX). In he con ex o his esea ch, he o al di ec jobs a e a sum o jobs in manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and ins alla ion, ope a ions and main enance, uel supply associa ed wi h elec ici y gene a ion, decommissioning o powe plan s a he end o hei li e imes and ansmission. The ca ego y o jobs a e as ollows,  Manu ac u ing Jobs – encompasses he numbe o jobs necessa y o manu ac u e a uni o powe gene a ion capaci y. Manu ac u ing o equipmen and componen s o a powe plan p ojec may equi e se e al weeks, mon hs o a mos a ew yea s’ wo h o wo k. As such, hey ep esen ela i ely empo a y employmen in compa ison o he en i e plan li e ime. Hence, hey a e exp essed as job-yea s, o he o al numbe o ull- ime jobs needed o manu ac u ing o e he plan ’s li e ime (IRENA, 2013). Addi ionally, he manu ac u ing o equipmen and componen s o powe plan s may occu ou side he coun y whe e he powe gene a ion capaci y is being ins alled. Many coun ies ely on impo ing, especially enewable ene gy echnologies, as he domes ic p oduc ion is insu icien o non-exis en ye . On he o he hand, coun ies ha expo enewable ene gy equipmen and componen s can gene a e employmen , which is addi ional o ha ela ing o hei domes ic ene gy capaci y addi ion by p oducing o expo ma ke s (IRENA, 2013). To accoun o he deg ee o impo dependence, he local manu ac u ing ac o is conside ed which is u he highligh ed below.  Cons uc ion and Ins alla ion Jobs – includes all he jobs associa ed wi h cons uc ing and ins alling a uni o powe gene a ion capaci y. I is assumed ha a local wo k o ce will unde ake he ins alla ion and cons uc ion o all ene gy p ojec s, as is in mos cases. Simila o manu ac u ing, hese a e exp essed as job-yea s, o he o al numbe o ull- ime jobs needed o cons uc ion and ins alla ion o e he plan ’s li e ime. These jobs a e p edominan ly in he beginning phase o a powe plan ( ha is in he i s ew yea s) and las du ing he pe iod in which he powe plan s a e buil un il he i s ope a ion. In his case, he cons uc ion and ins alla ion jobs a e annualised o e he cons uc ion pe iod o a powe plan , which is he ime equi ed o cons uc ion and ins alla ion o uni powe plan capaci ies (in e ms o pe MW). The cons uc ion imes o all echnologies in yea s can be ound in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial.  Ope a ion and Main enance Jobs – comp ises all he jobs associa ed wi h ope a ing and main aining he ope a ional condi ion o a powe plan o e i s echnical ope a ional li e ime. As powe plan s a e usually designed o un o decades, ope a ion and main enance jobs las o a ela i ely longe du a ion and he e o e in e p e ed as jobs pe capaci y o powe gene a ion. These jobs a e conside ed o he li e ime o he espec i e powe plan s and a e u he annualised o ge o al numbe o jobs du ing he ansi ion pe iod. As and when powe plan s a e decommissioned and new powe plan s eplace he capaci y, he O&M jobs con inue o exis . A lea ning ac o , which is co ela ed o he p oduc i i y inc ease in ope a ional expendi u es (Opex), is adop ed o e lec he decline in O&M jobs as echnologies and ope a ional p ocesses u he ma u e.  Fuel Jobs – includes all he jobs associa ed wi h uel supply o powe plan s (nuclea , ossil and bioene gy). These a e exp essed as jobs pe uni o p ima y ene gy, ac o ing he di e en a es o uel consump ion o powe plan s co esponding o he uel u ilised based on con e sion e iciencies du ing he ansi ion pe iod.  Decommissioning Jobs – consis s o all jobs associa ed wi h he decommissioning o ins alled powe plan s a he end o hei ope a ional li e imes, especially i plan s a e epowe ed o i ce ain elemen s a e ecycled o eused. These jobs a e compa able o cons uc ion and ins alla ion jobs and a e exp essed as job-yea s, o he o al numbe o ull- ime jobs needed o decommissioning o e he plan ’s li e ime. These jobs a e u he annualised du ing he ansi ion pe iod o de i e he o al numbe o jobs c ea ed.  T ansmission Jobs – includes all he jobs associa ed wi h powe ansmission ac i i ies. In con ex o his esea ch, ansmission jobs a e exp essed in e ms o in es men s made in ansmission in as uc u e, i.e. jobs pe uni in es men s (in billion eu os). As he LUT Ene gy Sys em T ansi ion modelling ool conside s only key ansmission in as uc u e equi ed, he ull ex en o jobs associa ed wi h ansmission in as uc u e is no e lec ed in his esea ch. The jobs om ansmission in as uc u e will be a lo highe when mo e accu a e ansmission da a is conside ed.  Jobs Loss: The jobs los in ossil uel and nuclea powe plan s a e co esponding o he decommissioned capaci ies o con en ional powe plan s du ing he ansi ion pe iod. As enewables a e mos ly ins alled beyond 2020, jobs do no a ise in con en ional powe plan s and hese plan s a e decommissioned a he end o hei echnical li e imes, which c ea es addi ional decommissioning jobs. Figu e 4: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Eu asia. The ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs o Eu asia du ing he ansi ion pe iod is as depic ed in Figu e 4. Local manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and ins alla ion o enewable ene gy echnologies c ea e a signi ican sha e o jobs enabling he apid build-up o capaci ies in he pe iod 2020-2025 (508 housand jobs), his is also due o he ac ha mos con en ional powe plan s in his egion a e qui e old and nea ing hei end o li e imes ha ha e o be eplaced (Fa an and B eye , 2017). This could se e as a co-bene i o he ene gy ansi ion o coun ies ac oss Eu asia. Beyond 2030, he e a e s able numbe o jobs c ea ed in hese sec o s up o 2050 wi h a ound 407 housand jobs. Fuel jobs a e an ini ial inc ease in 2020 (40% o o al jobs),decline h ough he ansi ion pe iod as capaci ies o con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewables un il 2030 and u he decline up o 2050 eaching jus abou 2% o o al jobs. On he con a y, ope a ion and main enance jobs con inue o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod and become he majo job c ea ing segmen by 2050, wi h 51% o o al jobs. As ope a ion and main enance jobs las h ough he li e ime o powe plan s, hey o e ela i ely s able long- e m job p ospec s. As indica ed in Figu e 4, he elec ici y demand speci ic jobs was a 516 jobs/TWhel in 2015 and inc eases o 859 jobs/TWhel in 2025 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2025, i declines s eadily o 638 jobs/TWhel by 2050. 4.3 MENA MENA is comp ised o coun ies ha a e eme ging economies as well as de eloped, wi h a ound 7% sha e in global GDP (IMF, 2017). This egion is amongs he la ges ene gy p oduce s in he wo ld, wi h an inc easingly high sha e o demand (Aghahosseini e al., 2016). The o al elec ici y consump ion was a ound 1360 TWh in 2015, which is es ima ed o ise o 3320 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016). This egion has immense sola esou ces, which can be ha nessed o mee his g owing demand. Wi h eco d low auc ions o sola powe ac oss he MENA egion, sola PV has eme ged as he mos a ac i e sou ce o elec ici y gene a ion (Dipaola, 2017). Bo h u ili y-scale and oo op PV a e seen o de elop h ough he ansi ion pe iod o be he dominan sou ce o powe gene a ion by 2050 (MEED, 2017; Ram e al., 2017a). Simila ly, sola PV is he p ime job c ea o h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h almos a million jobs by 2050, as indica ed in Figu e 5. Wind powe gene a ion c ea es a ai sha e o jobs du ing he pe iod o 2020 o 2030 (260 housand jobs in 2030), beyond which he sha es a e educed, as PV becomes mo e cos compe i i e. S o age echnologies in he o m o ba e ies ake o om 2030 onwa ds and lead o a decen sha e o jobs c ea ed up o 2050 (193 housand jobs in he ba e y sec o ). The o al numbe o di ec ene gy jobs ac oss he MENA egion a e obse ed o inc ease om jus a ound 590 housand in 2015 o nea ly 1.7 million by 2050. Figu e 5: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in he MENA egion. Figu e 5, also indica es he dis ibu ion o jobs ac oss he di e en ca ego ies du ing he ansi ion pe iod in he MENA egion. Wi h apid ins alla ion o capaci ies up o 2035, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely lowe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2020 as he sha e o impo s is high. F om 2025onwa ds, as domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies build up, a highe sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 wi h 15% o o al jobs. The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish om 2020 onwa ds h ough he ansi ion pe iod eaching jus 1% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ows h ough he ansi ion pe iod up o 53% o o al jobs by 2050. This means mo e s able jobs o a egion su e ing om high unemploymen amongs he you h and a g owing numbe o economic mig an s. A highe sha e o in es men s in de eloping sus ainable powe in as uc u e could be he igh ca alys o c ea e long- e m jobs in his egion (Iancho ichina e al., 2013). The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs inc eases om 435 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 788 jobs/TWhel in 2025 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2025, i declines s eadily o a ound 509 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figu e 5. 4.4 Sub-Saha an A ica Sub-Saha an A ica is a egion wi h a la ge numbe o eme ging economies, wi h jus a ound a 3% sha e in global GDP (IMF, 2017), bu is poised o be one o he as es g owing egions in he wo ld. Wi h apidly g owing popula ion, unp eceden ed economic p og ess and need o eliable, mode n ene gy access, he o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 484 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o ise o 2747 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016). The enewable ene gy sec o is g owing in Sub-Saha an A ica, wi h 14 coun ies ha ing se hemsel es a ge s and doubling in es men s o abo e 5 billion USD, be ween 2014 and 2015 (BNEF, 2017). Coun ies such as Sou h A ica, Kenya, E hiopia and Rwanda ha e accele a ed hei enewable ene gy adop ion and a e leading he ene gy ansi ion ac oss Sub-Saha an A ica (BonelliE ede, 2017). As his end is obse ed o pick up ac oss he egion du ing he ansi ion pe iod wi h sola PV eme ging as he dominan sou ce o powe gene a ion by 2050 (Ba asa e al., 2018; Ram e al., 2017a). Likewise, sola PV is obse ed o be he p ime job c ea o h ough he ansi ion pe iod, wi h 65% o he o al jobs c ea ed by 2050, as depic ed in Figu e 6. A ai sha e o jobs a e c ea ed by wind powe (283 housand jobs in 2025) and bioene gy (377 housand jobs in 2025) ini ially, which end o s abilise la e on, as sola PV is a mo e cos compe i i e beyond 2030. Jobs c ea ed by s o age echnologies mainly d i en by ba e ies, inc ease in sha e beyond 2030 and con inue o g ow up o 2050 (862 housand jobs in he ba e y sec o ). While, jobs associa ed wi h ossil uels, mainly coal and gas powe gene a ion, apidly diminish ac oss he egion. O e all, he numbe o di ec ene gy jobs a e seen o g ow massi ely om jus unde 1.2 million in 2015 o nea ly 5.5 million by 2050. Figu e 6: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Sub-Saha an A ica. Figu e 6, also indica es he dis ibu ion o jobs ac oss he di e en ca ego ies du ing he ansi ion pe iod ac oss Sub-Saha an A ica. Wi h amp up o ins alla ions up o 2035, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely lowe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2020, as he sha e o impo s is high. F om 2025 onwa ds, as domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies build up, a highe sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 wi h 19% o o al jobs. The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish h ough he ansi ion pe iod om 63% o o al jobs in 2015 o jus 3% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod eaching 42% o o al jobs by 2050. This could be he boos equi ed o employmen p ospec s in Sub-Saha an A ica, which a e p esen ly s agna ing due o low p oduc i i y a ibu ed o he egion’s lack o economic di e si ica ion (B ookings, 2017). The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs inc ease om 2399 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 3235 jobs/TWhel in 2025 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2025, i declines s eadily o a ound 1990 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figu e 6. The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs a e he highes in compa ison o all o he egions ac oss he wo ld as Sub-Saha an A ica con inues o ha e a high labou in ensi y h ough he ansi ion pe iod ( he labou in ensi y ac o s can be e e ed o in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial). 4.5 SAARC SAARC consis s o some o he mos as -paced g owing economies, wi h a ound 9% sha e o global GDP and 21% o he global popula ion (IMF, 2017). Wi h apidly g owing popula ion, unp eceden ed economic p og ess and need o eliable mode n ene gy se ices, he o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 1694 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o ise o 6979 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Gulagi e al., 2018). The egion lead by India wi h a ound 50 GW o sola and wind powe capaci y has ecen ly wi nessed an inc easing shi owa ds enewable ene gy (Buckley and Shah, 2018). D i en by policy ini ia i es and he emendous d op in cos s ha e made wind and sola PV he mos a ac i e p oposi ions o powe gene a ion. In he las 2 qua e s o 2017, only enewable ene gy capaci ies we e added in he Indian powe sec o (Sau abh, 2018) and S i Lanka has al eady made plans o gene a e 100% o hei powe om enewable ene gy sou ces (ADB & UNDP, 2017). This end is se o con inue wi h sola PV complemen ed by ba e ies o domina e he powe sha e by 2050. Simila ly, sola PV (4.18 million jobs) and ba e y s o age (894 housand jobs) sec o s eme ge as he majo job c ea o s ac oss he egion by 2050 as shown in Figu e 7. Wind powe (504 housand in 2030), hyd opowe (297 housand jobs in 2020) and bioene gy (523 housand jobs in 2025) c ea e a ai sha e o he jobs in he ini ial pe iods o he ansi ion. Beyond 2030, he sha es dec ease and s abilise un il 2050. The s o age sec o led by ba e ies c ea e a ai sha e o he jobs in 2030 wi h 23% o o al jobs and con inue o con ibu e un il 2050 wi h a s eady sha e. Whe eas, he jobs associa ed p ima ily wi h coal and gas powe gene a ion diminish apidly. The o al numbe o di ec ene gy jobs inc ease apidly om o e 4.2 million in 2015 o jus o e 7 million by 2030, he ea e s abilising a ound 5.8 million by 2050. This d op is p ima ily due o he apid amping up o powe capaci y ins alla ions o ensu e ene gy access o he as numbe o un-elec i ied people in his egion up o 2030. Beyond ha , capaci y addi ion would be a a slowe a e o ul il economic de elopmen . Figu e 7: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in he SAARC egion. The ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs c ea ed in he SAARC egion h ough he ansi ion pe iod is shown in Figu e 7. Wi h a apid amp up o ins alla ions up o 2030, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies wi h 40% o o al jobs in 2030. While, manu ac u ing jobs inc ease in sha e du ing 2020 o 2030, wi h some sha es o expo s (domes ic manu ac u ing c ea es 25% and expo s c ea es 2% o o al jobs in 2030). The SAARC egion is an impo e as well as an expo e o powe gene a ion echnologies ( he sha es o impo and expo can be e e ed o Table A3 in he Appendix). Beyond 2030, as p oduc ion capabili ies in o he impo ing egions build up, a ela i ely lowe sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 (a ound 18% o o al jobs). The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish h ough he ansi ion pe iod, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and s o age echnologies ( om 49% o o al jobs in 2015 o jus 1% o o al jobs by 2050). Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs con inues o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h 48% o o al jobs by 2050. The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs dec ease s eadily om 2508 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 2335 jobs/TWhel in 2030 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2030, i declines apidly o a ound 834 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figu e 7. The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ha e a apid decline as mos coun ies o SAARC ha e apidly g owing economies, which a e expec ed o wi ness be e economic condi ions beyond 2030. Fu he imp o ing up o 2050, esul ing in a declining labou in ensi y h ough he ansi ion pe iod ( he labou in ensi y ac o s can be e e ed o in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial). 4.6 No heas Asia The No heas Asian egion is comp ised o he as es g owing economies, wi h a ound a 25% sha e o he global GDP and 22% o he global popula ion (Haysom e al., 2015). Wi h apid indus ialisa ion, unp eceden ed economic p og ess and a soa ing appe i e o ene gy, he o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 6847 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o soa up o 15,078 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Bogdano and B eye , 2016). Renewable ene gy is high on he agenda o coun ies ac oss No heas Asia, wi h excellen wind and sola esou ces pa icula ly in Mongolia (B eye e al., 2015). China has been leading no only in he egion, bu also globally wi h a cumula i e sola PV capaci y o a ound 130 GW and 163 GW o wind by he end o 2017 (F ank u School - UNEP & BNEF, 2018). Addi ionally, Japan and Sou h Ko ea ha e de eloped plans o inc ease he sha e o enewables in hei espec i e powe mixes (BNEF, 2017). Renewable ene gy capaci ies a e obse ed o inc ease apidly in he nex couple o decades ac oss he egion (Ram e al., 2017a). Likewise, jobs a e c ea ed om mainly wind (2 million jobs in 2025) and sola PV (3.5 million jobs in 2025) in he ea ly s ages o he ansi ion. F om 2030 onwa ds, sola PV is obse ed o be he main sou ce o powe gene a ion and co espondingly c ea ing he mos numbe o jobs (6.7 million jobs by 2050) as indica ed in Figu e 8. S o age echnologies led by ba e ies a e obse ed o c ea e a ai sha e o jobs om 2030 onwa ds and con inue un o 2050 wi h 1.3 million jobs in he ba e y sec o . Whe eas, jobs associa ed wi h he coal sec o a e seen o dec ease apidly. The o al di ec jobs a e seen o inc ease om a ound 8 million in 2015 o 9.5 million by 2030 and a e a decline, numbe o jobs ises back o a ound 10 million by 2050. P ima ily wi h he eplacemen s o powe plan s beginning o inc ease in he pe iod om 2045 o 2050. Figu e 8: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in No heas Asia. The dis ibu ion o jobs acco ding o he di e en ca ego ies du ing he ansi ion pe iod ac oss No heas Asia is shown in Figu e 8. Wi h a amp up o ins alla ions un il 2030, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies (39% o o al jobs in 2030). Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a highe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2030, beyond which he sha es s abilise up o 2050. The No heas Asian egion con ibu es a majo sha e o he global expo s o all o he egions ( e e o Table A3 in he Appendix). Howe e , he sha e o jobs c ea ed by expo s educe beyond 2030, as o he egions a e expec ed o inc ease hei domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies (expo s c ea ing jus 36 housand jobs by 2050). The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inue o diminish h ough he ansi ion pe iod om 43% o o al jobs in 2015 o jus 1% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ows h ough he ansi ion pe iod om 13% o o al jobs in 2015 o 48% o o al jobs in 2050. Addi ionally, decommissioning jobs ha include eplacemen o end o li e powe plan s begin o c ea e some jobs by 2050 (293 housand jobs). The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs is educed om 1187 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 675 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figu e 8. This is p ima ily due o he ising economic g ow h o he egion o ecas ed o he u u e, esul ing in much lowe labou in ensi y by 2050. 4.7 Sou heas Asia The Sou heas Asian egion including Aus alia, New Zealand and he Paci ic Islands is comp ised o apidly g owing economies, wi h a ound 7% sha e o global GDP (IMF, 2017). Wi h apid economic g ow h in mos o hese coun ies, he need o ene gy is e e inc easing and some o he mo e de eloped coun ies ha e a high a e o consump ion o sus ain. In his con ex , he o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 1208 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o soa up o 4222 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Gulagi e al., 2017). Renewables ha e g own apidly as a powe sou ce ac oss Sou heas Asia, wi h hei ins alled capaci y a a ound 15 GW in 2016 (IRENA, 2018). By he end o 2017, cumula i e ins alled capaci y o sola PV in Aus alia was a ound 6.4 GW wi h close o 1.8 million oo op ins alla ions (AEC, 2018).Whe eas, New Zealand aims o p oduce 90% o hei elec ici y om enewable sou ces by 2025 (Elec ici y Au ho i y, 2016; Fo d e al., 2017). Wi h he end ac oss he egion indica ing a shi owa ds enewable ene gy, i can be obse ed ha sola PV along wi h ba e y s o age eme ge as he p ima y powe sou ce by 2050 (Gulagi e al., 2017; Ram e al., 2017a). Likewise, sola PV and ba e y s o age sec o s c ea e he majo sha e o jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod as shown in Figu e 9. Biomass and hyd opowe c ea e a highe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2025, bu con inue o c ea e some jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod. Wind powe sec o c ea es some jobs du ing 2020 o 2030 (96 housand jobs in 2025), beyond which ewe jobs a e c ea ed as sola PV becomes mo e cos e ec i e and ins alla ions inc ease in sha e wi h 2.1 million jobs by 2050. The s o age sec o led by ba e ies c ea e a ai sha e o he jobs om 2030 onwa ds and con inues h ough o 2050 wi h 414 housand jobs in he ba e y sec o by 2050. This could happen lo ea lie as coun ies such as Aus alia a e al eady wi nessing bo h u ili y-scale as well as p osume scale ba e y ins alla ions (AEC, 2018). Jobs associa ed wi h coal and gas powe gene a ion a e seen o decline apidly. The o al numbe o di ec ene gy jobs inc eases signi ican ly om a ound 1.2 million in 2015 o o e 3.3 million in 2030, beyond which he e is a decline o unde 2.5 million by 2040, a e which he e is a s eady inc ease up o a ound 3.2 million by 2050. Figu e 9: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Sou heas Asia. A ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs in he egion h ough he ansi ion pe iod is shown in Figu e 9. Wi h apid ins alla ion o capaci ies up o 2030, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies wi h 42% o o al jobs by 2030. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely lowe sha e in he ini ial pe iods up o 2020 as he sha e o impo s is ela i ely high. Beyond 2025 as domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies build up, a high sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed un il 2050 ( om 21% o o al jobs in 2035 o 17% o o al jobs by 2050). The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish om 2020 onwa ds h ough he ansi ion pe iod eaching jus 2% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs con inues o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h 49% o o al jobs by 2050. The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs inc eases om 997 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 1541 jobs/TWhel in 2030 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2030, i declines s eadily o a ound 748 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as highligh ed in Figu e 9. 4.8 No h Ame ica No h Ame ica is comp ised o he majo economic cen es o he wo ld, he USA, Canada and a apidly eme ging economy in Mexico, wi h a 19% sha e o global GDP (IMF, 2017), and is one o he la ges ene gy consump ion cen es ac oss he wo ld, wi h o al elec ici y consump ion o a ound 5284 TWh in 2015. This is es ima ed o ise o 7069 TWh by 2050, mainly d i en by he apid g ow h o Mexico as well as s able elec ici y demands om he USA and Canada (IEA, 2016; Aghahosseini e al., 2017). Renewable ene gy has been on he ise in he ecen yea s ac oss all he 3 coun ies. By he end o 2017, he USA had ins alled capaci ies o 91 GW o wind and 52 GW o sola in i s powe mix. The e has been a s eady ise in he sha e o enewable powe gene a ion in Canada and he la es powe gene a ion auc ions in Mexico yielded some o he lowes bids, wi h an a e age in he ange o 17 – 18 €/MWh (Bellini, 2017; Rabson, 2017). Mexico has se a a ge o a leas 35% o o al elec ici y gene a ion by 2024 o be om enewable ene gy sou ces (REN21, 2017). The end is se o con inue in he USA and Canada oo, and a combina ion o wind, sola PV, hyd opowe and ba e y s o age a e seen as he mos economical powe gene a ion sou ces by 2050 (Ram e al., 2017a). Simila ly, sola PV (1.62 million jobs in 2025) along wi h wind (762 housand jobs in 2025) eme ge o be he dominan job c ea ing sec o s du ing he ansi ion pe iod as shown in Figu e 10. Addi ionally, hyd opowe (180 housand jobs by 2050) and bioene gy (180 housand jobs by 2050) c ea e a s able sha e o jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod. S o age led by ba e ies begin o c ea e jobs om 2025 onwa ds wi h a s able sha e un il 2050 wi h 330 housand jobs in he ba e y sec o . Whe eas, coal and gas powe gene a ion associa ed jobs a e seen o decline apidly. O e all, jobs a e se o inc ease om a ound 1.8 million in 2015 o nea ly 3.8 million, wi h he apid amp up in ins alla ions up o 2025 and hen a s eady decline owa ds nea ly 2.7 million by 2050. Figu e 10: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in No h Ame ica. The ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs in No h Ame ica du ing he ansi ion pe iod is shown in Figu e 10. Manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and ins alla ion o enewable ene gy echnologies c ea e a signi ican sha e o jobs enabling he apid amp up o capaci y un il 2030, beyond his pe iod he e a e s able numbe o jobs c ea ed in hese sec o s up o 2050. Fu he mo e, manu ac u ing includes bo h o local use as well as o expo s o he o he egions as indica ed by Table A3 in he Appendix. The sha e o manu ac u ing jobs along wi h a ma ginal sha e o expo s ini ially ise up o 2025 (21% and 1% o o al jobs espec i ely), beyond which hey decline. As manu ac u ing is p edominan ly o ca e o he local powe ma ke s ac oss No h Ame ica wi h domes ic manu ac u ing ha ing a sha e o 11% o o al jobs by 2050 and only 4 housand jobs o expo s. Fuel jobs con inue o decline h ough he ansi ion pe iod eaching jus 2% o o al jobs by 2050, as capaci ies o con en ional powe plan s con inue o decline. On he con a y, ope a ion and main enance jobs con inue o g ow h ough he ansi ion pe iod and become he majo job c ea ing segmen by 2050 wi h 64% o o al jobs. As ope a ion and main enance jobs las h ough he li e ime o powe plan s, hey o e ela i ely s able long- e m job p ospec s. This has he po en ial o c ea e a posi i e e ec in many pa s o he USA ha su e om pe sis en unemploymen (U.S. Bu eau o Labo S a is ics, 2018). The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ini ially inc ease om 339 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 666 jobs/TWhel in 2025 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2025, i declines s eadily o 374 jobs/TWhel by 2050 as highligh ed in Figu e 10. 4.9 Sou h Ame ica The Sou h Ame ican egion including Cen al Ame ican coun ies is comp ised o g owing economies, wi h a ound a 6% sha e o global GDP (IMF, 2017). Wi h s eadily inc easing economic g ow h in mos o he coun ies, he need o ene gy is ising. The o al elec ici y consump ion ha is a ound 1180 TWh in 2015, is es ima ed o ise up o 2420 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Ba bosa e al., 2017). A dis inc i e ea u e o Sou h Ame ica’s powe gene a ion mix is he p edominance o hyd opowe and bioene gy, due la gely o he high sha es in B azil, which gene a es abou 40% o he o al egional elec ici y (IRENA, 2016). In ecen yea s, Sou h Ame ica has wi nessed an imp essi e g ow h in enewable powe gene a ion, whose ins alled capaci ies ha e mo e han ipled be ween 2006 and 2015, om 10 GW o 36 GW (IRENA, 2016; REN21, 2017). While in absolu e e ms mos o ha g ow h has been in bioene gy and onsho e wind p ima ily in B azil, sola PV has also g own signi ican ly in Chile, Pe u and U uguay (BNEF, 2017). This end is seen o apidly inc ease in he nea u u e and con inue h ough he ansi ion pe iod, wi h sola PV complemen ed by hyd opowe , wind and biomass eme ging as he main sou ces o powe gene a ion by 2050 (Ba bosa e al., 2017; Ram e al., 2017a). Likewise, jobs a e p edominan ly c ea ed in he bioene gy (827 housand jobs by 2020) and hyd opowe (357 housand jobs by 2025) sec o s du ing he ini ial pe iods o he ansi ion up o 2030 as shown in Figu e 11. Beyond which, sola PV (930 housand jobs by 2050) along wi h ba e y s o age (202 housand jobs by 2050) eme ge as he majo job c ea o s. S o age led by ba e ies c ea e jobs om 2025 onwa ds and main ain a s able sha e (9% o o al jobs in 2025) h ough he ansi ion pe iod un il 2050 (12% o o al jobs). Whe eas, coal, gas and oil powe gene a ion associa ed jobs decline apidly, almos disappea ing by 2025. Wi h he b isk build up in ins alla ions, he o al numbe o di ec ene gy jobs ise om jus unde 1 million o nea ly 2.2 million by 2025 and a s eady decline he ea e owa ds 1.6 million by 2050. Figu e 11: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 in Sou h Ame ica. A ca ego y-wise dis ibu ion o jobs in Sou h Ame ica h ough he ansi ion pe iod is shown in Figu e 11. Wi h apid ins alla ion o powe gene a ion capaci ies in he ini ial pe iod o 2020 o 2030, bulk o he jobs a e c ea ed in he cons uc ion and ins alla ion o powe gene a ion echnologies wi h 40% o o al jobs by 2025. Manu ac u ing jobs ha e a ela i ely lowe sha e in he ini ial pe iods wi h a high sha e o impo s. Beyond 2030, he sha e o manu ac u ing jobs a e obse ed o s abilise un il 2050 (16% o o al jobs), wi h inc ease in domes ic p oduc ion capabili ies. The sha e o uel ela ed jobs con inues o diminish h ough he ansi ion pe iod eaching jus 3% o o al jobs by 2050, as con en ional powe plan s a e eplaced by enewable and s o age echnologies. Whe eas, he sha e o ope a ion and main enance jobs g ows h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h 52% o o al jobs by 2050. A small sha e o decommissioning jobs wi h a ound 3% o o al jobs by 2050, a e c ea ed h ough he ansi ion pe iod wi h he con inuous eplacemen o powe plan s a he end o hei li e imes. The elec ici y demand speci ic jobs apidly inc eases om 835 jobs/TWhel in 2015 o 1669 jobs/TWhel in 2020 wi h he apid amp up in enewable ene gy ins alla ions. Beyond 2020, i declines s eadily o a ound 674 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as highligh ed in Figu e 11. 4.10 Global Wi h he apid amp up o ins alled capaci ies, a g owing sha e o enewable powe gene a ion echnologies a e obse ed o compensa e o he phasing ou o nuclea powe p oduc ion as well as o he con inually educing numbe o ossil uel powe plan s globally (B eye e al., 2017b; Ram e al., 2017a). This s ong g ow h in he enewable ene gy sec o leads o an inc ease o a ound 70% mo e di ec powe sec o jobs by 2030, and he o e all jobs c ea ed a e 1.5 imes as high in 2050, compa ed o 2015. Jobs c ea ed con inue o ise o each a ound 34 million di ec ene gy jobs by 2030. Beyond his poin , hey decline o a ound he 30 million ange and hen s eadily inc ease o nea ly 35 million by 2050 as shown in Figu e 12. This is mainly due o la ge capaci ies being eplaced and ein es ed in, as hey would each end o hei li e imes wi h decommissioning con ibu ing a ound 2% o o al jobs by 2050. Sola PV (22.2 million jobs by 2050), ba e ies (4.5 million jobs by 2050) and wind ene gy (1.4 million jobs by 2050) a e he majo job c ea ing echnologies du ing he en i e ansi ion pe iod om 2015 o 2050. In he case o wind ene gy, a ound 7.3 million jobs a e c ea ed in he pe iod om 2020 o 2030, beyond ha , as sola PV becomes mo e cos e ec i e hey d i e majo i y o he ins alla ions un il 2050 and jobs in he wind sec o a e s abilised. While, hyd opowe (1.9 million jobs by 2050) and bioene gy (2.3 million jobs by 2050) c ea e a s able sha e o jobs h ough he ansi ion pe iod. Sola PV is obse ed o eplace coal as he majo job c ea ing ene gy esou ce, wi h a ound 64% o o al jobs by 2050, as compa ed o jus 10% o o al jobs in 2015. Addi ionally, i is well complemen ed by ba e y s o age c ea ing a ound 13% o o al jobs by 2050. Whe eas, jobs in he coal, gas and nuclea powe sec o s a e obse ed o decline apidly as shown in Figu e 12. Figu e 12: Jobs c ea ed by he a ious powe gene a ion and s o age echnologies (le ) and jobs c ea ed based on di e en ca ego ies wi h he de elopmen o elec ici y demand speci ic jobs ( igh ) du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 globally. A ca ego y-wise classi ica ion o jobs in manu ac u ing, cons uc ion and ins alla ion, ope a ion and main enance, uel supply, decommissioning and ansmission c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050 is shown in Figu e 12. Fuel sec o jobs a e se o decline om 44% o he o al jobs in 2015 o jus a ound 2% o he o al jobs by 2050, as ossil uels and nuclea powe capaci ies decline. On he o he hand, i can be obse ed ha ope a ion and main enance jobs ha e he mos signi ican inc ease in he sha e o he o al jobs c ea ed om 15% in 2015 o 50% by 2050. This indica es ha he ansi ion owa ds a 100% enewable powe sys em enables c ea ion o mo e s able jobs, which can con ibu e o s able economic g ow h o coun ies mainly in he de eloping egions o he wo ld and p o ide a means o ackling you h unemploymen (Ali, 2014). In many pa s o he wo ld, his could be a ca alys o imp o e social wellbeing as well as poli ical s abili y (Kollewe, 2010). Fu he mo e, Figu e 12 also illus a es he de elopmen o he elec ici y demand speci ic jobs, which emain qui e s able h ough he ansi ion pe iod. Washing on D.C. Re ie ed om h p://www.w i.o g/si es/de aul / iles/can- enewable-ene gy-jobs- educe-po e y-india.pd Aghahosseini, A., Bogdano , D., & B eye , C. (2016). The MENA Supe G id owa ds 100 % Renewable Ene gy Powe Supply by 2030 The MENA Supe G id owa ds 100 % Renewable Ene gy Powe Supply by 2030. In 11 h In e na ional Ene gy Con e ence. Teh an. Aghahosseini, A., Bogdano , D., & B eye , C. (2017). 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[Job-y s /MW] Sou ce Wind onsho e 4.70 3.20 0.30 0.72 Ru o i z e al., 2015 Wind o sho e 15.60 8.00 0.20 2.99 Ru o i z e al., 2015 PV U ili y-scale 6.70 13.00 0.70 0.80 Ru o i z e al., 2015 PV Roo op 6.70 26.00 1.40 1.21 Sola Powe Eu ope, 2015 Biomass 2.90 14.00 1.50 29.90 0.32 Ru o i z e al., 2015 Hyd o Dam 3.50 7.40 0.20 2.22 Ru o i z e al., 2015 Hyd o RoR 8.75 18.50 0.50 5.55 Assuming 2.5 imes he alue as Hyd o Dam Geo he mal 3.90 6.80 0.40 0.21 Ru o i z e al., 2015 CSP 4.00 8.00 0.60 1.33 Ru o i z e al., 2015 Biogas PP 2.90 14.00 2.25 29.90 0.32 Ru o i z e al., 2015, 1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs as Biomass PP Was e- o- ene gy 2.90 14.00 2.25 29.90 0.32 Ru o i z e al., 2015, 1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs as Biomass PP Me hana ion 2.90 14.00 2.25 0.32 Ru o i z e al., 2015, 1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs as Biomass PP Coal PP (Ha d Coal) 5.40 11.20 0.14 39.70 1.65 Ru o i z e al., 2015 Nuclea PP 1.30 11.80 0.60 0.001 (Jobs/ GWh) 0.95 (Jobs/ MW) Ru o i z e al., 2015 OCGT 0.93 1.30 0.14 15.10 0.21 Ru o i z e al., 2015 CCGT 0.93 1.30 0.14 15.10 0.21 Ru o i z e al., 2015 S eam Tu bine 0.93 1.30 0.14 0.21 Assuming same as Gas Tu bine P H 1.86 2.60 0.28 0.21 Assuming 2 imes he alue as GT ICE 0.93 1.30 0.21 15.10 0.44 Ru o i z e al., 2015, 1.5 imes mo e O&M jobs as GT Gas S o age 0.00 0.12 0.01 0.11 Go . o UK, 2015 P G 1.86 2.60 0.28 0.21 Assuming 2 imes he alue as GT Ba e y la ge- scale 16.90 10.80 0.40 0.80 0.5 imes o p osume s o age Ba e y p osume 16.90 21.60 0.80 1.21 De i ed om USDOE, 2017 Pumped Hyd o S o age 7.00 14.80 0.40 4.44 Assuming 2 imes he alues o Hyd o Dam A-CAES 8.45 10.80 0.40 0.40 Assuming 1/2 he alues o Ba e ies (la ge-scale) T ansmission Employmen ac o wi h ega d o in es men s – 5045 jobs/b€ The B a le G oup, 2011 The decommissioning employmen ac o s a e de i ed om (RFF, 2017), (E onik, 2010) and (Oldham, 2009). Fu he de ails can be ound in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial. Table A2: Regional employmen mul iplie s, based on labou p oduc i i y ac oss he di e en egions used in he es ima ion o jobs c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050. (Abb e ia ions: EUR – Eu ope, MENA – Middle Eas and No h A ica, SSA – Sub-Saha an A ica, SAARC – Sou h Asian Associa ion o Regional Coope a ion, NEA – No heas Asia, SEA – Sou heas Asia, NA – No h Ame ica, SA – Sou h Ame ica) Regions Regional Employmen Mul iplie s 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 EUR 1.05 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.22 Eu asia 1.86 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 MENA 2.26 1.94 1.66 1.51 1.37 1.32 1.28 1.23 SSA 7.49 6.42 5.51 5.00 4.54 4.38 4.24 4.09 SAARC 5.18 3.99 3.07 2.56 2.13 2.00 1.88 1.76 NEA 2.22 1.89 1.60 1.50 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.43 SEA 2.52 2.20 1.93 1.77 1.63 1.58 1.52 1.47 NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 SA 3.14 2.69 2.31 2.10 1.90 1.84 1.78 1.72 The egional employmen mul iplie s, which a e based on labou p oduc i i y ac o s a e de i ed om (ILO, 2016) and (IMF, 2017). Fu he de ails can be ound in he Supplemen a y Ma e ial and a desc ip ion is p o ided in he me hods sec ion. Table A3: Sha e o local manu ac u ing and co esponding sha e o impo s ac oss he di e en egions used in he es ima ion o jobs c ea ed du ing he ene gy ansi ion om 2015 o 2050. (Abb e ia ions: EUR – Eu ope, MENA – Middle Eas and No h A ica, SSA – Sub-Saha an A ica, SAARC – Sou h Asian Associa ion o Regional Coope a ion, NEA – No heas Asia, SEA – Sou heas Asia, NA – No h Ame ica, SA – Sou h Ame ica) Regions Sha e o Local Manu ac u ing [%] Region o Impo / Impo Sha es [%] 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 EUR NA SAARC NEA EUR 90 90 90 90 100 100 100 100 - 25 - 75 Eu asia 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 100 25 - 25 50 MENA 30 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 25 - 25 50 SSA 30 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 25 15 10 50 SAARC 70 80 90 100 100 100 100 100 25 15 - 60 NEA 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 - - - - SEA 90 90 90 90 100 100 100 100 30 - 30 40 NA 80 90 90 90 100 100 100 100 50 - - 50 SA 50 60 70 80 90 100 100 100 25 50 - 25 The de elopmen o he sha es o local manu ac u ing in he di e en egions du ing he ene gy ansi ion pe iod om 2015 o 2050 and he co esponding egions o impo , along wi h he sha es o impo a e based on da a ga he ed om (Ru o i z e al., 2015), (UNIDO, 2013) and (PwC, 2017). Vi ae Au ho 1 Name Manish Ram Ins i u ion LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland Biog aphy Conduc ing doc o al esea ch a Sola Economy G oup, LUT. Focusing on socioeconomic impac s o ene gy ansi ions ac oss he wo ld. Publica ions a h ps://www. esea chga e.ne /p o ile/Manish_Ram2/con ibu ions Au ho 2 Name A man Aghahosseini Ins i u ion LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland Biog aphy Conduc ing doc o al esea ch a Sola Economy G oup, LUT. Focusing on ene gy ansi ions in he MENA egion and Ame icas and explo ing complemen a y echnologies o enable he ansi ion. Publica ions a h ps://www. esea chga e.ne /p o ile/A man_Aghahosseini/con ibu ions Au ho 3 Name Ch is ian B eye Ins i u ion LUT Uni e si y, Yliopis onka u 34, 53850 Lappeen an a, Finland Biog aphy Heading he Sola Economy G oup a LUT. Many yea s o academic expe ience in he ene gy domain. Focusing on ene gy ansi ions owa ds ull sus ainabili y, in global-local pe spec i e. Publica ions a h ps://www.scopus.com/au hid/de ail.u i?au ho Id=39761029000