Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
Fo es Ecology and Managemen
jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/ o eco
Sou ces and ypes o unce ain ies in he in o ma ion on o es - ela ed
ecosys em se ices
A. Kangas, K.T. Ko honen, T. Packalen, J. Vauhkonen
⁎
Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland (Luke), Bioeconomy and En i onmen Uni , Yliopis oka u 6, 80100 Joensuu, Finland
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Fo es in en o y
Su ey
Indica o
Mapping
Unce ain y
Value o in o ma ion
ABSTRACT
The concep o ecosys em se ices has gained impo ance in he o es managemen and o es policy p ocesses in
ecen yea s. Ensu ing he sus ainable p o ision o ecosys em se ices equi es accu a e in o ma ion o he
cu en p o ision and me hods o p edic ing he impac o impo an d i e s, such as changes in land co e and
land use. In his e iew, we define he sou ces o unce ain ies in o es - ela ed ecosys em se ice assessmen s
and discuss hei impo ance o he usabili y o he in o ma ion o diffe en pu poses. The unce ain ies a e due
o e.g. a ia ion in he selec ed indica o s o he ecosys em se ices, lack o p ima y in o ma ion on hem, poo
co ela ion wi h he da a used o mapping he ecosys em se ices o la ge scale and o p edic ing he impac s
o human in e en ions. The unce ain ies can be andom o non- andom and hei assessmen is o en igno ed,
especially in he case o he non- andom e o s. As a esul , diffe en assessmen s and subsequen decision
ecommenda ions can be highly conflic ing. We do no expec ha he accu acies would significan ly imp o e in
he sho e m. The bes way o p oceed is he e o e o assess he unce ain ies and ake hem in o accoun in he
decision making o o es managemen .
1. Ecosys em se ices concep as a means o p omo e sus ainable
o es managemen
Ecosys em se ices (ES) ep esen he goods and se ices de i ed
om he unc ions o ecosys ems u ilized by he humani y (Cos anza
e al., 1997, 2017; C ossman e al., 2013). The concep o ecosys em
se ices was o iginally designed as an educa ional and communica ion
ool (Daily, 1997) o acknowledge ha human wellbeing is igh ly
connec ed o he p o ision o hese se ices. Nowadays he concep o
ecosys ems se ices is he main amewo k o en i onmen al policies
and moni o ing (No gaa d, 2010). The Eu opean Commission empha-
sizes he impo ance o accu a e in o ma ion on ecosys em se ices as
he basis o he EU Biodi e si y S a egy o 2020 (Eu opean
Commission, 2011). Land use change is he mos impo an d i e a -
ec ing he ecosys ems (Dong e al., 2015). As a esul , ecosys em se -
ices ha e been emphasized in na ional and egional land use policies
and planning (e.g. F ank e al., 2015, Haakana e al., 2017, Tammi
e al., 2017). Policy make s a e inc easingly ecognizing he po en ial o
ecosys em se ice mapping in s a egic planning (Vo s ius and Sp ay,
2015).
In he cascade model (Fig. 1), he ecosys em se ices a e add essed
h ough he s uc u e and p ocess o he ecosys ems and hei unc-
ioning, benefi s and alue ob ained om he used ecosys em se ices.
The biophysical s uc u es and p ocesses c ea e he basis o he unc-
ioning o he ecosys em and he unc ions c ea e he capaci y o p o-
ide se ices. The capaci y o deli e a se ice exis s independen ly o
whe he anyone wan s o needs ha se ice, bu ha capaci y becomes
a se ice only i a beneficia y can be clea ly iden ified. The alue o he
benefi can be defined as economic, social, heal h o in insic alue
(Haines-Young and Po chin, 2010). The ecosys em se ices app oach
has been c i icized, howe e , o aking a ully an h opocen ic iew
and hiding he in insic alues o na u e (Fü s , 2015).
Ecosys em se ices can be g ouped in many diffe en ways (e.g. de
G oo e al., 2002, MA, 2005; TEEB, 2010). In Common In e na ional
Classifica ion o Ecosys em Se ices (CICES), which is used in his e-
iew, he ecosys em se ices a e di ided o p o isioning, egula ion
and main enance, and cul u al (Haines-Young and Po chin, 2010).
Se ices ha a e mos ele an om o es managemen poin o iew
include p o isioning se ices such as imbe , be ies and mush ooms,
game, eindee , and bioene gy; egula ing and main enance se ices
such as clima e egula ion; and cul u al se ices such as ec ea ion and
na u e ou ism. In he ollowing ex , we use he e m ‘ecosys em se -
ices’ o e e o all possible o es - ela ed ecosys em se ices in gene al
and diffe en ia e be ween hem only when i is ele an om he poin
o iew o da a acquisi ion. In hose cases, we always spell ou he
specific ecosys em se ices o s eps o he cascade model (Fig. 1) we a e
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j. o eco.2018.05.056
Recei ed 2 Ma ch 2018; Recei ed in e ised o m 24 Ap il 2018; Accep ed 24 May 2018
⁎
Co esponding au ho .
E-mail add ess: ja i. auhkonen@luke.fi(J. Vauhkonen).
Fo es Ecology and Managemen 427 (2018) 7–16
0378-1127/ © 2018 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie B.V. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/BY/4.0/).
T
e e ing o.
The ecosys em se ices a e ope a ionalized h ough a selec ed se o
indica o s (e.g. Mülle and Bu kha d, 2012). The pu pose o he in-
dica o s is o suppo he managemen o ecosys ems and o commu-
nica e on hei condi ion. Thus, hey simpli y he complexi y o he
ecosys ems o manageable concep s. The se o ele an ecosys em
se ices and hei indica o s a ies om egion o ano he . Fo ins ance,
Mononen e al. (2016) and Hansen and Malmaeus (2016) ha e p e-
sen ed a diffe en se o indica o s o Finland and Sweden, espec i ely,
e en hough he wo coun ies esemble each o he e y closely in
e ms o o es s uc u e. This a ia ion is one o he challenges when
compa ing in e na ional ecosys em se ice assessmen s (Maes e al.,
2012b, Mononen e al., 2016). One possible eason o he a ia ion is
ha he alues o he expe s who ca y ou he selec ion o he c i e ia
implici ly eflec o he selec ion o he indica o s (Menzel and Teng,
2010).
Sus ainable managemen o na u al esou ces can be seen as max-
imizing he social wel a e ob ainable om hem (Kan and Lee, 2004).
Sus ainabili y means ha he u u e gene a ions can consume he eco-
sys em se ices o he same ex en as he cu en one (e.g. No gaa d,
2010). Sus ainable p o ision o ecosys em se ices hus equi es a non-
declining p o ision o all se ices o e an infini e pe iod in ime. Only
changes ha a e ina guably sus ainable a e Pa e o imp o emen s,
whe e he supply o ecosys em se ices imp o es wi h espec o one o
mo e indica o s bu does no de e io a e wi h espec o any o he o he
se ices. T ade-offs a e ine i ably ela ed o all o he changes in he
cu en and u u e p o ision o he ecosys em se ices. The decision on
whe he such changes a e sus ainable o no depends on he alues o
he humans making he e alua ion (e.g. Fü s e al., 2010, Vo s ius and
Sp ay, 2015, Ha ikainen e al., 2016). Including ecosys em se ices
in o decision making is one way o s i e o sus ainable o es man-
agemen (e.g. Ma inez-Ha ms e al., 2015). Acco ding o Meye and
Schulz (2017), howe e , o es s a e cu en ly unde ep esen ed in he
s udies ela ed o ecosys em se ices.
Ensu ing ha ecosys em se ices a e p o ided sus ainably equi es
in o ma ion o he cu en s a e. Sample-based in o ma ion is adequa e
o make decisions on sus ainabili y a na ional and egional scales. Fo
decision conce ning loca ions, such as whe e i is impo an o p o ec ,
es o e o imp o e ecosys ems o hei se ices, a map –i.e. spa ially
explici in o ma ion –is equi ed. The maps can be used, o ins ance, o
de ec ho spo s o coldspo s, i.e. a eas wi h high o low supply o eco-
sys em se ices (e.g. Pagella and Sinclai , 2014). Co-occu ence o
diffe en ecosys em se ices in an a ea implies syne gies and adeoffs
(Maes e al., 2012a). The maps can also be used o de ec a eas whe e
he supply o ecosys em se ices dec eases o inc eases due o changes
in land use (Pagella and Sinclai , 2014); o iden i y p o iding and
benefi ing a eas (Sy be and Wal z, 2012); and o communica e he e -
ec s o policies o he land use and ecosys em se ice p o ision
(Vo s ius and Sp ay, 2015).
Real policy decisions equi e wo o mo e decision op ions o choose
om and p edic ions o he u u e consequences o hese op ions
(Co ona, 2016). To ensu e sus ainable p o ision o ecosys em se ices,
in o ma ion needs o be a ailable and o sufficien quali y. We also
need o ha e decision suppo ools o p edic ing he u u e de elop-
men o he se ices affec ed by he decisions execu ed.
We e iew he acquisi ion o p ima y da a (Sec ion 2) and mapping
o ecosys em se ices (Sec ion 3), concen a ing on hose se ices e-
le an om o es managemen poin o iew. We e iew he me ho-
dology a ailable o assess he unce ain y in he ecosys em se ices da a
(Sec ion 4) and no e ha in mos cases unce ain y assessmen is
lacking o inadequa e. The sea ch o e e ences was ca ied ou using
Web o science on 15 No embe 2016. We used one keywo d desc ibing
he unce ain y assessmen (e.g. “e o ”,“unce ain y”,“ alida ion”,
“e alua ion”), one keywo d desc ibing he da a collec ion and usage
(e.g. “mapping”,“in en o y”,“da a acquisi ion”) and as he las key-
wo d “ecosys em se ices”. While he inclusion o all esul ing a icles
o his e iew is by no means exhaus i e (Web o science ga e 22 652
hi s o he keywo d “ecosys em se ices”), we specifically a emp ed o
ocus on a icles ha acknowledged unce ain ies. Finally, we discuss
ou findings on he gap be ween he in o ma ion demand and supply in
e ms o con en s, scale, accu acy and unce ain y assessmen wi h e-
spec o decision making.
2. Acqui ing ecosys em se ices da a
2.1. Indica o s o ecosys em se ices
The da a acquisi ion o ecosys em se ices is ope a ionalized
h ough a se o indica o s ha can be assessed. P ima y da a a e
needed o he indica o s o he s uc u e, unc ion, benefi s, and alue
in he cascade model (Fig. 1). Fo ins ance, he habi a a ea (ha), p o-
duc ion (kg/ha/A), yield (kg), and mone a y alue (€) could se e as
he indica o s o s uc u e, unc ion, benefi s, and alue, espec i ely, i
o es be ies and mush ooms we e conside ed as an example se ice
(Mononen e al., 2016).
Selec ing a good se o indica o s is impo an , as hose a y in
quali y o decision making. Au inen e al. (2007) e alua ed indica o s
o biodi e si y using se e al c i e ia: ele ance, impac , effec i eness,
cos -effec i eness, accep abili y, incen i e alue, anspa ency and op-
po uni ies o pa icipa ion, equi y, flexibili y, p edic abili y, and
Biophysical
s uc u e o
p ocess
Func ion
Se ice
Bene i
Value
Fig. 1. The cascade model (modified om Haines-Young and Po chin, 2010).
A. Kangas e al. Fo es Ecology and Managemen 427 (2018) 7–16
8
pe manence. Fo es in en o y expe s defined 41 a iables measu able
a field ha could be used as indica o s o biodi e si y (Chi ici e al.,
2012). These indica o s we e anked om low o high acco ding o
hei easibili y and impo ance and hose ha had bo h high easibili y
and impo ance we e ound o be he mos use ul.
P ima y da a o many o es ela ed indica o s o s uc u e and
unc ion can be ob ained om field plo s o o es in en o y (Table 1). I
p ima y da a a e a ailable, hose can be used o o m (s a is ical o
p ocess-based) models. Models a e o impo ance, as hey can be used
o mapping he se ices and especially o assessing he impac o u-
u e changes. P ima y da a o benefi s and alue equi e su eys in-
ol ing he human beneficia ies. These da a can also be p esen ed as a
(benefi ans e ) model. As i is o en difficul o ob ain he equi ed
da a, mos o he se ices lack p ima y in o ma ion (Eigenb od e al.,
2010). The only op ion in ha case is o assess he ecosys em se ices
by means o expe judgmen , e en hough such da a a e highly sub-
jec i e and difficul o alida e (Table 1).
2.2. Field da a
In many coun ies a sample-based na ional o es in en o y (NFI)
has been es ablished o moni o ing o es s (Chi ici e al., 2011). The
main benefi o he sample-based da a acquisi ion is he possibili y o
assess he unce ain y included (Table 1). The NFIs ha e adi ionally
measu ed indica o s sui able o imbe p oduc ion. Fo ins ance, he
NFIs p o ide es ima es o he a ea o managed o es s (ha) and he
inc emen o g owing s ock (m
3
/ha), which we e iden ified as in-
dica o s o wood and bioene gy p o ision (Mononen e al., 2016).
Ca bon- ela ed indica o s a e also eadily a ailable, because hose can
be calcula ed om he g owing s ock in o ma ion.
Cu en ly, he NFIs also measu e o he han imbe - ela ed in-
dica o s, such as hose ela ed o deadwood, e ical s uc u e, im-
po an habi a s, and ee species mix u es. Fo ins ance, he global
Fo es Resou ces Assessmen (FRA) s i es o collec ing in o ma ion on
he p o ision o ecosys em se ices globally (Miu a e al., 2015).
Howe e , ob aining p ima y in o ma ion on ecosys em se ices o he
han imbe is s ill a challenge. Sample-based in en o y da a a e ac-
cu a e and, in p inciple, could include many o he indica o s o s uc-
u e and non-wood p oduc ion. In p ac ice, he collec ion o such da a
may be esou ce in ensi e (Maes e al., 2012b) and he e o e p ac ically
in easible. A smalle sample ailo ed specifically o he gi en eco-
sys em se ice(s) is o en needed o p o ide adequa e s a is ics con-
ce ning, o ins ance, he p oduc ion o o es be ies o game habi a s
(e.g. Ku ki e al., 2000, Tu iainen e al., 2011, Melin e al., 2016).
To enhance he a ailabili y o p ima y da a, many diffe en en-
i onmen al moni o ing schemes ha e been and a e being de eloped
(see Geijzendo ffe and Roche, 2013 o a e iew). Mos o hem a e
ela ed o a subse o possible ecosys em se ices. Se e al moni o ing
schemes ha e been de eloped o habi a o species di e si y (e.g. S åhl
e al., 2011, Co ona e al., 2011, Chi ici e al., 2012), while he poli ical
ocus o en i onmen al p o ec ion has ecen ly been based mo e on
main aining o es o ing ecosys em se ices (Geijzendo ffe and Roche,
2013).
The ecosys ems p o ide se ices in diffe en scales, which need o
be accoun ed o also in he moni o ing schemes (Geijzendo ffe and
Roche, 2013). The scales can be local, egional, global, o ela ed o
di ec ional flow o dis ance (e.g. Cos anza, 2008). Each indica o
should ob iously be moni o ed on he ele an spa ial scale. Some in-
dica o s like landscape pa e ns equi e obse a ions om wide geo-
g aphical ex en s han sample plo s. The pa e ns can be desc ibed
using landscape me ics such as he numbe o pa ches, mean pa ch
size, o shape and di e si y indices (F ank e al., 2012; Ramezani and
Ramezani, 2015). Ano he simila example equi ing landscape mea-
su es a e he ec ea ional and aes he ic alues (Pukkala e al., 1995;
F ank e al., 2012).
2.3. Su ey da a
The benefi s and alue, i.e. he up ake o se ices, a e ypically
difficul o assess in he field. Some indica o s, such as he deg ee o
g azing by game, may be moni o ed wi h sample-based in en o ies, bu
su eys o in e iews o he beneficia ies a e o en needed. I i was
possible o in e iew he beneficia ies li ing close o he field plo s, he
su eys could be di ec ly linked wi h he field measu emen s, bu
usually he su eys need o be ca ied ou as a sepa a e effo .
T ade s a is ics can also p o ide use ul in o ma ion. Fo he p o i-
sion o mos o he ecosys em se ices, ele an s a is ical in o ma ion
exis s a he na ional le el. Fo ins ance, he amoun and alue o
be ies, mush ooms o o he non-wood o es p oduc s ha ing mone-
a y alue a e assessed in se e al coun ies. The Food and Ag icul u e
O ganiza ion o he Uni ed Na ions (FAO), Cen e o In e na ional
Fo es y Resea ch (CIFOR), In e na ional Fo es y Resou ces and
Ins i u ions Resea ch Ne wo k (IFRI) and Wo ld Bank ha e e en pub-
lished good p ac ice guidance o collec ing socio-economic da a wi h
household su eys (FAO, CIFOR, IFRI and Wo ld Bank, 2016).
Specific alua ion s udies a e needed o ecosys em se ices which
do no ha e ma ke alue. In gene al, alua ing non-ma ke goods can
be ca ied ou using ei he p e e ences e ealed in eal decision
Table 1
Da a acquisi ion o he diffe en le els o he cascade model o ecosys em se ices.
Me hod S eps o he cascade model in ol ed Ad an ages Disad an ages
Field da a - S uc u e
- Func ion
(- Use)
- Objec i e (unbiased) in o ma ion
- Unce ain y assessmen s a ailable
- Cos ly
- Labo ious and imp ac ical o some indica o s
- Unobse able o some indica o s
Models - S uc u e
- Func ion
(- Use)
- Easy o u ilize in mapping he ecosys em
se ices
- Cheape han p ima y da a
- Unce ain y assessmen s possible
- Possible o assess he impac s o changes
- Requi es p ima y da a o es ima ion
Su ey da a - Use
- Benefi
- Value
- Unce ain y assessmen s possible - P one o subjec i i y
- Regional a e ages difficul o u ilize in mapping
Benefi ans e - Benefi
- Value
- Cheape han o iginal alua ion s udies - P one o bias due o diffe ences be ween egions and
con ex
- Valida ion and unce ain y assessmen difficul
Expe judgmen - S uc u e
- Func ion
- Use
- Benefi
- Value
- Easy o u ilize in mapping he ecosys em
se ices
- Cheape han p ima y da a
- Possible o assess he impac s o changes
- Highly subjec i e
- P one o bias
- Valida ion and unce ain y assessmen difficul
A. Kangas e al. Fo es Ecology and Managemen 427 (2018) 7–16
9
si ua ions, o hose s a ed in hypo he ical decision con ex s (Lou ie e
e al., 2000). In many cases, howe e , he e a e no o he possibili ies
excep elying on he s a ed p e e ences. The s a ed p e e ences
me hods include e.g. con ingen alua ion o choice modeling (Lou ie e
e al., 2000).
2.4. Benefi ans e da a
Mos o he e alua ions a e case s udies, which in ol e one o a
couple o se ices in one egion (e.g. Ho ne e al., 2005; Japelj e al.,
2016). When he alue o an ecosys em se ice is e alua ed in one o
mo e egions, he benefi s can be ans e ed also o o he a eas o
ob ain na ional o global le el e alua ions (benefi ans e ). This is
o en he only op ion because o budge cons ain s.
The main difficul y in he benefi ans e is he ques ion o how
well he findings om one egion can be gene alized o he o he s
(Table 1). Fo ins ance, he es ima e o Cos anza e al. (1997) on he
o al alue o he global ecosys em se ices o 33 illion US dolla s
annually has been widely c i icized o he lack o a en ion o he
con ex and consequen ly in alid benefi ans e (Bul e and an
Koo en, 2000). Howe e , such es ima es po en ially p o ide easonable
app oxima ions and he main goal in he benefi ans e app oach may
no be accu acy, bu use ulness (Richa dson e al., 2015).
The ans e abili y depends on he con ex and he spa ial scale o
he o iginal s udies (Richa dson e al., 2015). Fo ins ance, i is possible
o compu e a uni alue o one o iginal e alua ion s udy ha bes
ma ches he cha ac e is ics o he si e o in e es and o use ha alue
o he gene aliza ion. Howe e , a me a-analysis modelling he eco-
sys em se ice alues obse ed in he exis ing s udies as a unc ion o
he cha ac e is ics o he s udy si es could be mo e use ul. Such me a-
analysis models a e a ailable o many ecosys em se ices (Nelson and
Kennedy, 2009).
2.5. Expe judgmen
E en i we seldom ha e sui able p ima y field o su ey da a o
ecosys em se ices, i does no mean ha we ha e no in o ma ion a all.
Ins ead, expe opinion may p o ide he bes op ion a ailable o as-
sessing he ecosys em se ices in ques ion o some cases.
Expe opinions a e ypically collec ed in he o m o a model,
meaning ha he expe s a e asked o assess e.g. be y p oduc ion po-
en ial, biodi e si y, ec ea ion alue o habi a sui abili y in a gi en
o es si e ype o o es age class, and he esul is p esen ed as a
unc ion o he o es cha ac e is ics. The mos popula inpu da a a e
p obably he land use / land co e (LU/LC) ma ices (Balz e e al.,
2015). The expe opinions a e ypically assessed using quali a i e
echniques, such as on a e bal scale om e y low o e y high supply
(Koschke e al., 2012, Fü s e al., 2013, Jacobs e al., 2015). I is also
possible o use quan i a i e echniques such as pai wise compa isons,
which enable p oducing s a is ical models om he judgmen s (Kangas
e al., 1993, Ihalainen e al., 2002, Leskinen e al., 2003).
In o ma ion based on expe opinions is a less cos ly al e na i e
compa ed o acqui ing p ima y field o su ey da a on any ecosys em
se ice. The d awback is ha he quali y o such da a canno be gua -
an eed. La ge disag eemen s be ween he expe s imply poo in o ma-
ion quali y (Kangas e al., 1998). The esul s depend on who, how
many, and wha kinds o expe s a e used. Fo ins ance, bo h scien is s
and ou is s could be used as expe s in ques ions conce ning ec ea-
ion. Techniques such as Delphi ounds ha e been used in o de o in-
c ease he consensus be ween he expe s (Scolozzi e al., 2012), bu
new ounds o assessmen s may also inc ease he a ia ion be ween he
expe s (Kleemann e al., 2017). The judgmen s o expe s could be
weigh ed based on hei expe ise o he mos unce ain expe s could
be le ou (Leskinen e al., 2003). Howe e , e en when all expe s
ag ee on he p o ision o a gi en ecosys em se ice, hey may be col-
lec i ely w ong o he expe disag eeing wi h all he o he s could be
he one wi h he bes knowledge. This means ha expe opinion is e y
suscep ible o bias (Table 1).
2.6. Assessing he impac o changes
I is impo an o model he se ices based on in o ma ion ha al-
lows o p edic ing hei de elopmen in ime and unde human in e -
en ions –i.e., no jus o mapping he cu en s a e. Land use change
is he mos impo an d i e in he p o ision o ecosys em se ices and
o p edic consequences o land use changes, he p o ision o ecosys em
se ices needs o be modelled as a unc ion o he land use. In he
simples case, he expe s assess he p o ision o ecosys em se ices
di ec ly as a unc ion o LU/LC classes in wo ime poin s and he im-
pac s o land use changes can be calcula ed as he sub ac ion o he
be o e and a e maps (e.g. Fü s e al., 2013, Kleeman e al., 2017). The
landscape pa e n also plays a majo ole in many cases, which means
ha he models need o accoun o he p ope ies o he neighbo hood
o pixels o s ands ins ead o jus indi iduals.
A modelling app oach can be used o cap u e he con inuum o
ecosys em se ices (K ishnaswamy e al., 2009). I is possible o model
he p o ision o ecosys em se ices using ei he inpu a iables fixed in
ime, such as opog aphy, o hose changing o e ime, such as canopy
co e , ee species o biomass (e.g. And ew e al., 2014, Ma inez-
Ha ms e al., 2016). Many ypes o modelling echniques, such as niche-
based, ai -based o ull p ocess models based on ac ual causal e-
la ionships (La o el e al., 2017), ha e been used. The effec o land use
change on he p o ision o ecosys em se ices can be p edic ed by fi s
assessing he effec o he land use change on he inpu alues. In a case
o o es esou ces, ma ix-based o es scena io models can be u ilized
(e.g. Vauhkonen and Packalen, 2017). Thus, i is possible o p edic he
consequences o diffe en policies on ecosys em se ices by fi s p e-
dic ing he u u e de elopmen o o es esou ces unde hese policies.
3. Mapping o o es ecosys ems
Mapping ecosys em se ices means ha he in o ma ion a ailable is
gene alized o e an a ea based on emo e sensing (RS) o o he in-
o ma ion p esen ed in a Geog aphical In o ma ion Sys em (GIS). The
simples –bu o en also he leas accu a e –way is o u ilize p e iously
collec ed and in e p e ed RS ma e ial, such as LU/LC maps p o ided by
CORINE. I is possible o map all aspec s o he cascade model (Fig. 1),
in p inciple. In p ac ice, howe e , pa ame e s ela ed o in si u p o-
duc ion like ca bon seques a ion can be mapped ai ly easily, whe eas
hose ela ed o benefi s like clima e egula ion a e used globally and
hus mapping hem is mo e challenging (Pagella and Sinclai , 2014).
As he e is a lack o p ima y in o ma ion conce ning mos o he
ecosys em se ices, he mos easily a ailable map da a sou ce o eco-
sys em se ices is one based on expe assessmen and LU/LC classes
(Fig. 2,Fü s e al., 2010, 2013; Jacobs e al., 2015). The esul ing map
is ine i ably hea ily simplified. Fo ins ance, Me zge e al. (2006)
conside ed all non-u ban lands o ha e an equal po en ial o ec ea ion
and c opland and u ban a eas o ha e no ec ea ional po en ial a all.
Such maps also concen a e on he land use composi ion, bu igno e
land use configu a ion and in ensi y (La o el e al., 2017).
Mo e de ailed analyses equi e mo e de ailed in o ma ion, such as
soil maps, ege a ion o bio ome maps o addi ional RS da a (e.g.
Vihe aa a e al., 2015; Kaise e al., 2013). Fo ins ance, Vauhkonen
and Ruo salainen (2017) used expe judgemen based models o gen-
e alize he ecosys em se ice p edic ions de i ed om o es esou ce
maps (e.g. Tomppo e al., 2008). Fo es esou ce maps may o en in-
clude mo e in o ma ion han he LU/LC maps: beside he main ee
species, also es ima es o mean age, mean size and o es s uc u e a e
included.
I p ima y da a a e a ailable, he selec ed a ibu es can be gen-
e alized o la ge a eas by calcula ing he a e age es ima es o he LU/
LC classes ins ead o using expe assessmen s (e.g. Eigenb od e al.,
A. Kangas e al. Fo es Ecology and Managemen 427 (2018) 7–16
10
2010). The use o a e age wi hin-class es ima es may o e -simpli y he
si ua ion, as o es s belonging o he same LU/LC class may ha e a e y
diffe en po en ial o p o ide ecosys em se ices acco ding o s and
mean age, o example. P ima y da a can also be used in physical o
s a is ical models, whe e he p o ision o ecosys em se ices is p e-
dic ed o each pixel o s and using a ailable GIS and RS in o ma ion
(e.g. And ew e al., 2014; Ma inez-Ha ms e al., 2016). Such models
can be di ec ly u ilized in mapping.
The accu acy o he p oduced map imp o es by a s onge e-
la ionship be ween he inpu a iables and he ecosys em se ices in
ques ion. Thus, h ee-dimensional (3D) emo e sensing p oduc s such as
ai bo ne lase scanning (ALS) da a allow p oducing mos de ailed maps
o o es ecosys em se ices (Da ies and Asne , 2014; Vihe aa a e al.,
2015). Un o una ely, he a ailabili y o 3D emo e sensing da a seldom
suppo s la ge-scale analyses in he same way as he a ailabili y o
sa elli e images.
4. Unce ain ies in he ecosys em se ices mapping
4.1. Assessing he unce ain y
The e may be unce ain ies due o indica o s chosen o desc ibe he
ecosys em se ices; GIS da a used o mapping he se ices; ela ion-
ships be ween he GIS da a and he indica o s; and due o he e-
la ionships be ween human in e en ions and he ecosys em se ices
(Table 2). Un o una ely, he accu acy assessmen p o ocols used wi h
map p oduc s do no clea ly in o m on i a map is use ul o no (Ayanu
e al., 2012; McRobe s, 2011; Pagella and Sinclai , 2014). The fi s and
las ca ego ies o Table 2 apply o decision making in ol ing ecosys em
se ices o e all, and he o he wo ca ego ies o decisions conce ning
loca ion-specific decision making.
The unce ain ies can be andom o non- andom (o s uc u al, see
Boi hias e al., 2016). Non- andom e o s can be due o e.g. incohe en
defini ions o he ecosys em se ices, selec ion o indica o s, spa ial
scale, missing explana o y a iables, o analysis echniques (Ma ínez-
Ha ms and Bal ane a, 2012; Schulp e al., 2014; Ba edo e al., 2015).
Non- andom e o s a e also ine i able whene e expe judgmen is
used o assess he ecosys em se ice, e.g. due o he selec ion o he
expe s. In he alua ion o ecosys em se ices, he numbe o se ices
conside ed and he numbe o benefi s e alua ed o each se ice may
in oduce non- andom e o s (Boi hias e al., 2016). Random e o s, on
he o he hand, come om measu emen e o s, sampling e o s and
esidual e o s o models.
The fi s sou ce o unce ain y in he ecosys em se ices es ima es is
he use o p ima y da a (Table 3). In he case o andom e o s, basic
s a is ical analyses o measu emen and sampling e o s a e alid as-
sessmen me hods applied o indica o s such as imbe and ca bon
p oduc ion. Non- andom e o s a e much mo e difficul o assess, bu
empi ical alida ion s udies could be used o assess he effec o selec ed
indica o s o he a ia ions o indica o s be ween egions. Such s udies
could also be used o analyze he effec s o missing indica o s. The
agueness o defini ions could be desc ibed using e.g. uzzy numbe s o
se s, bu om decision making poin o iew he bes app oach would
be o efine he defini ions. On he o he hand, he a ia ion o he
measu es used o desc ibe he ES in ques ion could in i sel desc ibe he
agueness o he defini ions (Boe ema e al., 2017). Unce ain y in he
ela ionship o he chosen indica o and he ecosys em se ice in
ques ion is mo e complica ed. To be use ul, he indica o should ha e a
high posi i e co ela ion wi h he se ice in ques ion. Wi h empi ical
alida ion da a, i is possible o analyze he deg ee by which he chosen
indica o s succeed.
The second sou ce o unce ain y is he ac ual GIS da a used o
mapping, which can con ain andom e o s due o misclassifica ions o
he LU/LC classes, o ins ance. Such unce ain y can be assessed using
Mon e Ca lo simula ion (e.g. Dong e al., 2015; Foody, 2015). The
andom e o s can also be p edic ion e o s, esul ing om model-based
gene aliza ions o e.g. soil samples ac oss egions. The non- andom
e o s o GIS da a may be ela ed o a ying amoun s o LU/LC classes
o a ying esolu ion in he RS ma e ial be ween diffe en s udies. As-
sessing such unce ain ies in he con ex o ecosys em mapping has
la gely been ca ied ou by compa ing es ima es o ecosys em se ices
ob ained om diffe en land use maps (e.g. Bení ez e al., 2007; Schulp
and Alkemade, 2011; Schulp e al., 2014; Van de Bies e al., 2015).
Fo ins ance, Schulp e al. (2014) compa ed ou maps a he Eu opean
le el. As a esul o he unce ain ies, he p oduced maps s ongly dis-
ag eed on he po en ial o clima e egula ion in Sweden and Finland
despi e he high p opo ion o o es s in hese coun ies. In such a
compa ison, he p oblem is ha none o he maps is necessa ily he ue
one and he accu acy o each map emains unknown. Ano he p oblem
is ha he a ying sou ces o e o a e con ounded and i is ypically no
possible o sepa a e he effec s o jus one sou ce.
The hi d sou ce o e o is he ela ionship be ween he indica o s
Fig. 2. Ecosys em se ice mapping based on LU/LC map and expe es ima es o ecosys em se ices p o ision in he classes (Jacobs e al., 2015).
A. Kangas e al. Fo es Ecology and Managemen 427 (2018) 7–16
11

o ecosys em se ices and he GIS da a used o he mapping. The
andom e o s a e due o he p edic ion models be ween inpu da a and
he p ima y da a on indica o s o he ecosys em se ices. Non- andom
e o s a e due o, o ins ance, using expe judgmen o modelling.
Assessing he unce ain ies in expe assessmen s o ecosys em se ices
is no sel -e iden , bu one way o assess he unce ain ies is o analyze
he disag eemen s be ween he expe s using s a is ical me hods (Alho
and Kangas, 1997,Table 3). E en i p ima y da a a e a ailable and he
ela ionship is modelled wi h s a is ical models, non- andom e o s due
o missing explana o y a iables o o he model misspecifica ions is
possible, e en likely. Tha sou ce o e o can be assessed by compa ing
diffe en models in he p edic ions.
The e o s in he ela ionships be ween a iables can be assessed
using empi ical e alua ion. Land co e -based p oxies a e known o be
poo p edic o s, because hey ha e a poo co ela ion wi h he ac ual
ecosys em se ices (Eigenb od e al., 2010; Geijzendo ffe and Roche,
2013). Fo ins ance, Eigenb od e al. (2010) gene alized sample-based
da a o h ee ecosys em se ices o 10 × 10 km squa es and compa ed
he esul ing maps o hose p oduced as a e ages o he land co e
classes. Bo h he app oaches we e hus based on he same da a, bu
classified ei he wi h o wi hou using he land co e classes. When he
a eas wi h highes po en ial o p o ision o ecosys em se ices we e
sea ched o , he cong uence be ween hese wo maps was no e y
high. Fo ins ance, when looking a ho spo s ( he bes 10% o he a ea),
he wo maps we e o e lapping in 23% o cases o biodi e si y, 17%
o ec ea ion and 62% o ca bon s o age.
A model ha uses local biophysical in o ma ion as explana o y
a iables in addi ion o land use can p oduce much mo e accu a e in-
o ma ion. Fo ins ance, in he compa ison ca ied ou by Ma inez-
Ha ms e al. (2016), a model could p edic 60% o he a ia ion o he
fi ewood, compa ed o he 15% o he look-up- able. Wi h his kind o
model, i is also possible o analyze he impo ance o he diffe en
componen s o unce ain y (e.g. Li ne and S o ay, 2011).
The las sou ce o e o is he ela ionship be ween he ecosys em
se ice p oduc ion and human in e en ions. The assessmen me hods
o his sou ce o e o a e simila as in he p e ious case.
The unce ain y assessmen s should be spa ially explici ins ead o
agg ega ed in applica ions aiming o use he ecosys em maps o loca e
he a eas o ho spo s. One p oblem is ha he e o s may be e y he -
e ogeneously dis ibu ed o e he landscape o be ween he diffe en
ecosys em se ices conside ed (Dong e al., 2015). Fo ins ance, G ê -
Regamey e al. (2013) used a Bayesian ne wo k o a spa ially explici
unce ain y assessmen . I is also possible o map he obus ness and
sensi i i y o he expe opinions (Ligmann-Zielinska and Jankowski,
2014; Ga cía Má quez e al., 2017).
The unce ain ies om he diffe en sou ces cumula e in he ana-
lysis (e.g. Ba on e al., 2018). Fo ins ance, i ecosys em s uc u e is
used as a basis o assessing ecosys em unc ion(s), which is u he
used as a basis o p edic ing he benefi (s) and alue, he e o s ela ed
o he diffe en s eps o he cascade model cumula e. This cumula ing
effec hus mainly affec s he p ima y da a conce ning he benefi (s)
and alue. Howe e , he cumula ing effec also applies o cases whe e
decisions a e ca ied ou based on locally p edic ed impac s o human
in e en ions, which in u n a e based on he p edic ed p o ision o he
ecosys em se ices. In such cases, all sou ces o e o s in oduced in
Table 2apply, bu he use s o he in o ma ion should especially be
cau ioned on he cumula ing effec o he non- andom e o s.
4.2. The effec o unce ain y in decision making
The unce ain ies should be quan ified and communica ed o deci-
sion make s in o de o make in o med decisions. E o s can lead o
biased alua ion o he ecosys em se ices and, consequen ly, e oneous
decisions (Foody, 2015). The dis inc ion be ween andom and non-
Table 2
Sou ces o e o s in he mapping.
Sou ce o e o Random e o Non- andom e o s
Indica o s o ecosys em se ices •Measu emen e o s o indica o a iables
•Sampling e o s
•Poo co ela ion be ween he indica o and he ES
•Ambiguous defini ions o ES
•Selec ion o indica o s
•Va ia ion in indica o s used o a gi en ES ac oss egions and
s udies
•Misspecified ela ionship be ween he indica o and he ES
GIS da a (used as a basis o mapping) •Misclassifica ion e o s •Numbe o LU/LC classes
•Spa ial esolu ion o he da a
•Missing da a
Rela ionship be ween GIS da a and indica o s o ES •Residual e o s o models (poo co ela ion)
•E o s in model coefficien s
•Selec ion o expe s
•Bias in expe judgmen
•Misspecified (s a is ical o expe ) models
•Missing explana o y a iables
•Regional bias (in benefi ans e and o he models)
Impac o human in e en ions on ES •Residual e o s o models (poo co ela ion)
•E o s in model coefficien s
•Selec ion o expe s
•Bias in expe judgmen
•Misspecified (s a is ical o expe ) models
•Missing explana o y a iables
•Regional bias
Table 3
Me hods sui able o assessing diffe en ypes o e o s.
Sou ce o e o Assessmen o andom e o s Assessmen o non- andom e o s
Indica o s o ecosys em se ices •S a is ical analysis o sampling and measu emen e o s
•Empi ical alida ion o co ela ion be ween he se ice
and he indica o
•Fuzzy logic
•Empi ical alida ion o selec ion o indica o s
used
GIS da a (used as a basis o mapping) •S a is ical analysis o model e o s
•Mon e Ca lo simula ion
•Compa ison o maps p oduced
Rela ionship be ween GIS da a and indica o s o ESImpac o
human in e en ions
•S a is ical analysis o model e o s
•Mon e Ca lo simula ion
•Empi ical alida ion o co ela ion be ween he se ice
and he indica o
•Va ia ion among expe s
•Va ia ion among p edic ion models
•Empi ical alida ion o model misspecifica ion
A. Kangas e al. Fo es Ecology and Managemen 427 (2018) 7–16
12
andom e o s (Table 4) is especially impo an when accoun ing o
he unce ain ies. Fo all andom e o ypes, i is possible o simula e
se e al ou comes o a gi en decision and use hese simula ions ei he
o sensi i i y o scena io analyses. When scena ios can be simula ed, i
is also possible o use s ochas ic p og amming o Bayesian decision
analysis o he decision making. S ochas ic p og amming makes sense
when he e a e cons ain s in he analysis (e.g. Ey indson and Kangas,
2014; Ha ikainen e al., 2016). Bayesian analysis is especially use ul i
he p oblem can be desc ibed using a decision ee wi h only a ew
possible ou comes o each decision (Smi h, 2012).
Scena io analyses wi h scena ios based on he assessmen s o di -
e en expe s o diffe en models a e also one possibili y o assess he
non- andom e o s, such as unce ain ies in he expe judgmen s. In
he assessmen s o he effec s o human in e en ions, i is possible o
u ilize adap i e managemen , i.e. lea n om expe iences and adap he
managemen acco dingly (Bi ge e al., 2016). Howe e , adap i e
managemen based on wo-s age s ochas ic p og amming is also a
possibili y, when addi ional in o ma ion is acqui ed (Kangas e al.,
2015).
Vague defini ions a e he mos challenging non- andom e o , bu
decision suppo me hods such as uzzy op imiza ion and uzzy decision
analysis (Kangas e al., 2015) can s ill be u ilized when all unce ain ies
a e desc ibed using uzzy app oach a he han s a is ical analysis.
Diffe en ypes o unce ain ies may be impo an o he diffe en
ypes o decisions. The e o e, i may no be necessa y o accoun o all
ypes o e o s in e e y decision p oblem. As he effec s o hese e o s
a e e y poo ly known, i is difficul o assess he impo ance o each
e o sou ce on he decisions. Howe e , based on he map ypologies o
Pagella and Sinclai (2014), we ha e assessed he impo ance o ac-
coun ing o e o s o some applica ions. Table 5 p esen s he esul s o
his analysis using h ee classes (low, medium, o high), which indica e
how impo an i is o include unce ain y analyses in he example
applica ions o hose o p oduce u h ul ou comes.
Random e o s in p ima y da a o he indica o s and GIS da a likely
ha e a small effec on ade-offanalyses be ween diffe en ecosys em
se ices. In con a y, he mos impo an sou ce o e o o he ade-
offanalyses is he ela ionship be ween GIS da a and he indica o s o
he ecosys em se ice. The non- andom e o s a e especially impo an .
I he ela ionship is biased, i is e iden ha he ela ionship be ween
wo ecosys em se ices analyzed o ade-offs will be biased as well
(Table 5). Likewise, ague defini ions o ecosys em se ices in he fi s
place a e also likely e y impo an . Howe e , he bes way o a oid
his sou ce o unce ain y is using unambiguous defini ions.
On he o he hand, he accu acy o he loca ions is impo an , i we
wish o find ho o cold spo s o he conside ed ecosys em se ices. In
such case, also he andom e o s in he GIS da a may be impo an .
Howe e , he non- andom e o s in he ela ionships be ween he GIS
da a and he indica o s o ecosys em se ices a e likely o be he mos
impo an sou ces o e o when de ec ing he ho spo s. Ob iously, he
ela ionships be ween he impac s and he ecosys em se ices a e mo e
impo an han in he p e ious decision ypes, i we wish o map he
impac s. The unce ain ies ela ed o he impac s a e also impo an , i
we wish o de ec loca ions wi h g ea es possibili ies o inc easing he
p o ision o selec ed ecosys em se ices. The unce ain ies in he GIS
da a a e also ai ly impo an in de ec ing he co ec spo s. He e, as
well as in he p e ious cases, we assess he non- andom unce ain ies o
ha e he highes impac s in he analyses.
5. Discussion
Conside ing he high ele ancy o ecosys em se ices o policy
making, he in o ma ion basis is no adequa e o mos o he o es -
ela ed ecosys em se ices. Maps o ecosys em se ices a e only as good
as he da a a ailable on he se ices o be included (Blacks ock e al.,
2015). The e o e, i is conce ning ha in a ecen e iew o 405 pape s
on ecosys em se ices (Boe ema e al., 2017), only a fi h o he s udies
included ac ual field measu emen s, i.e. p ima y da a, and 31% o
s udies did no epo any da a.
I is possible o make in o med decisions conce ning some o he
o es y- ela ed se ices, especially imbe p oduc ion and ca bon se-
ques a ion o which good-quali y da a a e usually a ailable om
NFIs. Fo some o he s, like be y and mush oom p oduc ion, in o ma-
ion is a ailable, bu i s quali y may no be high enough o in o med
decisions (see Kilpeläinen e al., 2016). Maps conce ning he benefi s
and alues also in ol e conside able e o s (Schägne e al., 2013).
Mo eo e , he quali y o he indica o s hemsel es should be alida ed.
Many o he indica o s cu en ly used a e e y weakly co ela ed wi h
he ecosys em se ices (Boe ema e al., 2017). Measu ing indica o
a iables in na ional and global o es in en o ies would p o ide a
b eak h ough o sus ainable o es managemen (e.g. Miu a e al.,
2015). I would mean ha p ima y da a on he se ices a e a ailable
bo h o he analyses and o he alida ion.
Assessing he unce ain ies in he es ima ed p o ision o he eco-
sys em se ices is conside ed o be highly impo an (e.g. Boe ema
e al., 2017, Ba on e al., 2018). In spi e o his, Boe ema e al. (2017)
conclude ha unce ain y and alida ion analyses a e mos ly igno ed.
E en i unce ain ies a e assessed, he assessmen ypically co e s only
one o wo possible sou ces o unce ain y. Many o he po en ial
sou ces lis ed in he p e ious sec ions ha e only a ely been comp e-
hensi ely add essed. In he pape s we e iewed, he non- andom un-
ce ain ies ela ed o he numbe o LU/LC classes and RS da a e-
solu ion we e add essed mos o en. We also disco e ed cases whe e he
andom misclassifica ion e o s o GIS da a, he non- andom un-
ce ain y due o possible model misspecifica ion, and he andom un-
ce ain y due o poo co ela ion we e add essed. Such cases we e s ill
a e, conside ing ha ou sea ch was specifically ocused on pape s
add essing he unce ain y. I is p obable ha we did no find all e-
le an pape s, bu conside ing he ob ious lack o exis ence o such
pape s, unlikely many we e missed.
Fo some ecosys em se ices, he only a ailable analyses a e based
on expe opinion and LU/LC classes, which may be highly biased and
poo ly co ela ed wi h he ac ual se ices. Conside ing ha p ima y
da a a e a ailable only o a mino i y o s udies, he expe opinion is a
e y impo an sou ce o da a. Rela ed o he impo ance o his da a
sou ce, i is no able ha we we e no able o find any ES s udies ha
Table 4
Possibili ies o accoun o he e o s in decision making.
Sou ce o e o Random e o s in
decision analysis
Non- andom e o s in
decision analysis
Indica o s o ecosys em
se ices
•Sensi i i y analysis
•Scena io analysis
•S ochas ic
op imiza ion
•Bayesian decision
analysis
•Fuzzy decision
analysis
•Fuzzy op imiza ion
GIS da a (used as a basis
o mapping)
•Sensi i i y analysis
•Scena io analysis
•S ochas ic
op imiza ion
•Bayesian decision
analysis
•Scena io analysis
Rela ionship be ween GIS
da a and indica o s o
ES
•Sensi i i y analysis
•Scena io analysis
•S ochas ic
op imiza ion
•Bayesian decision
analysis
•Scena io analysis
Impac o human
in e en ions
•Sensi i i y analysis
•Scena io analysis
•S ochas ic
op imiza ion
•Bayesian decision
analysis
•Adap i e
managemen
•Scena io analysis
A. Kangas e al. Fo es Ecology and Managemen 427 (2018) 7–16
13
would ha e add essed he unce ain y due o (non- andom) a ia ion
among he expe s o possible biases o misspecifica ions o he expe
opinion models. In he u u e, i is e y impo an o alida e hese
expe judgmen s udies. As he majo i y o expe s can be w ong, i is
impo an o exe cise cau ion wi h hese analyses.
The e is an ine i able adeoffbe ween he co e age, le el o de ail,
and accu acy o he da a, which eflec s o he decision making. Fo
in e na ional policy making, global assessmen s a e equi ed and a low
le el o de ail and low accu acy migh be accep able. The equi emen s
o de ail and accu acy inc ease om he na ional o egional and local
le els o policy making. Unce ain ecosys em se ice maps wi h a low
le el o de ail a e ill-sui ed o decision suppo o o iden i ying a eas
ha p oduce mul iple se ices a a local le el. E en so, such maps migh
s ill be used o de ec la ge-scale ends (Eigenb od e al., 2010). When
local p ima y da a a e a ailable o he mapping, maps ha a e be e
sui ed also o local decision making can be ob ained.
The unce ain ies in he ecosys em se ices analyses a e high, bu
p oducing significan ly mo e accu a e in o ma ion on ecosys em se -
ices may ake yea s. Ne e heless, Cos anza e al. (2017) p oposed
imp o ing he measu emen s and hei u iliza ion as a key o iden i y
diffe ences in ou comes among policy choices. Moo e e al. (2017) e-
commend ha in some cases quali a i e a he han quan i a i e in-
o ma ion on ecosys em se ices is used, due o he high unce ain y.
We ag ee wi h he p oblem b ough up by bo h he e e ences abo e,
bu disag ee on means o sol e i . Al eady in he sho e m and in he
absence o be e measu emen s, app op ia e and anspa en in-
o ma ion can be p o ided o decision make s using quan i a i e in-
o ma ion and decision analysis echniques ha accoun o he in-
he en unce ain ies (Table 4).
The quali y equi emen s conce ning he in o ma ion on ecosys em
se ices o planning and policy making should be assessed. This as-
sessmen depends on he scale o he decision p oblem (local, egional
o na ional). I is also impo an o ela e he quali y needs o he
empo al scale o he decisions and policies. I is clea ha in a spa ial
scale o pixels, s ands o es a es, he decisions o be made a e diffe en
han hose o na ional o global le els. As a consequence, also he in-
dica o s ha a e ele an and/o use ul a e diffe en , as well as he
accu acy equi emen s se o hese indica o s. We also need o assess
he quali y equi emen s sepa a ely o diffe en ypes o p oblems
(Table 5), as he da a equi emen s a e ob iously diffe en o diffe en
asks. The mos p essing need is o assess non- andom unce ain ies.
The sufficien accu acy o in o ma ion can be add essed based on
he concep o alue o in o ma ion (VOI) o each specific decision
p oblem. I can (ex an e) be calcula ed as he diffe ence o expec ed
alue o a gi en decision wi h and wi hou a sou ce o new in o ma ion
(Law ence, 1999, Kangas, 2010). The VOI o moni o ing ecosys em
se ices has no been es ima ed in any s udy o ou knowledge. How-
e e , Eigenb od e al. (2010) conclude ha benefi s om imp o ing he
in o ma ion on ecosys em se ices by sample-based mapping a ou -
weigh he cos s.
The e is also an u gen need o communica e he scope and lim-
i a ions o a ious ecosys em se ice maps o he use s (Vo s ius and
Sp ay, 2015). Mo eo e , he e is a need o in oduce he unce ain ies
in o he decision making p ocess, in o de o imp o e he ac ual deci-
sions. Un o una ely, Ba on e al. (2018) conclude ha only 2% o he
313 pape s hey e iewed ac ually a ge ed decision making. Add es-
sing he unce ain y in he decision p ocess could imp o e he decisions
and educe he isks in a mo e cos -efficien way han imp o ing he
accu acy o p edic ions by be e p ima y da a (e.g. Ey indson and
Kangas, 2014). This is possible when he decisions a e good o many
scena ios o he u u e p o ision o ecosys em se ices, ins ead o being
he bes o op imal o jus one ou come. The e is a need o change he
ocus om assessing and mapping he ecosys em se ices o ac ually
using he in o ma ion in decision making, and doing i in elligen ly, i.e.
aking also he unce ain ies in o accoun .
6. Conclusions
The quali y o in o ma ion o diffe en ecosys em se ices a ies
be ween he diffe en se ices. Fo es in en o ies p o ide accu a e in-
o ma ion o imbe p oduc ion, whe eas o many o he se ices, ex-
pe opinions se e as he main sou ce o in o ma ion. The la ge he
spa ial scale o he analyses, he less in o ma ion is ypically a ailable
and his si ua ion canno be expec ed o ma kedly imp o e in he u-
u e. Inco po a ing he unce ain ies in o he decision making and
policy analyses enables us o p oduce obus decisions and policies,
meaning ha he ecommenda ions apply o a whole se o possible
scena ios o u u e and e y poo ou comes can be a oided. Thus, as-
sessing he unce ain ies and acknowledging hem in decision making is
he as es and cheapes way o imp o e he p o ision policies o o es -
ela ed ecosys em se ices.
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Table 5
Assessmen o he impo ance o unce ain y assessmen o a ious example applica ions (R – andom and N –non- andom e o s).
Applica ion Sou ce o e o
Indica o s o ecosys em
se ices
GIS da a (used as a basis o
mapping)
Rela ionship be ween GIS da a
and ES
Impac o human in e en ions
RN R N R N R N
Analyses o ade-offs and syne gies Low High Low Low Medium High Low Low
De ec ing cold and ho spo s Low High Medium Medium Medium High Low Low
Mapping o impac s Low High Low Low Medium High Medium High
Mapping o oppo uni ies o
imp o emen s
Low High Medium Medium Medium High Medium High
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