In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10, 4925-4943; doi:10.3390/ije ph10104925
In e na ional Jou nal o
En i onmen al Resea ch and
Public Heal h
ISSN 1660-4601
www.mdpi.com/jou nal/ije ph
A icle
He e ogeneous Risk Pe cep ions: The Case o Poul y Mea
Pu chase In en ions in Finland
Jaakko Heikkilä 1,*, Eija Pou a 1,†, Sa i Fo sman-Hugg 1,† and Johanna Mäkelä 2,†
1 MTT Economic Resea ch, La oka anonkaa i 9, Helsinki FI-00790, Finland;
E-Mails: [email p o ec ed] (E.P.); sa i. o sm[email p o ec ed] (S.F.-H.)
2 Depa men o Teache Educa ion, Uni e si y o Helsinki, P.O. Box 8 (Sil a uo enpenge 10),
Helsinki FI-00014, Finland; E-Mail: johanna.m.m[email p o ec ed]
† These au ho s con ibu ed equally o his wo k.
* Au ho o whom co espondence should be add essed; E-Mail: [email p o ec ed];
Tel.: +358-29-531-7190; Fax: +358-20-772-040.
Recei ed: 21 Augus 2013; in e ised o m: 12 Sep embe 2013 / Accep ed: 29 Sep embe 2013 /
Published: 11 Oc obe 2013
Abs ac : This s udy ocused on he he e ogenei y o consume eac ions, measu ed
h ough poul y mea pu chase in en ions, when acing h ee cases o isk. The
he e ogenei y was analysed by la en class logis ic eg ession ha included all h ee isk
cases. App oxima ely 60% o he esponden s belonged o he g oup o p oduc ion isk
a oide s, in which he in en ion o pu chase isk ood was signi ican ly lowe han in he
second g oup o isk neu als. In addi ion o socio-demog aphic a iables, he pu chase
in en ions we e s a is ically associa ed wi h se e al a i ude-based a iables. We
highligh ed some policy implica ions o he he e ogenei y. O e all, he s udy demons a ed
ha isk ma e s o consume s, no all isk is equal, and consume ypes eac somewha
di e en ly o di e en ypes o isk.
Keywo ds: poul y; consume beha iou ; isk; ood sa e y; consume he e ogenei y
OPEN ACCESS
In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4926
1. In oduc ion and Backg ound
Consume beha iou al esponses o isks ha e been s udied in ela ion o consume ood choices, as
well as by ocusing on pu chase in en ions unde indi idual ood isk ypes. Typically, hese s udies
ha e ocused on ei he p oduc ion- ela ed isks such as ho mone ea men [1,2], chemical
con ol subs ances [3] and gene ic modi ica ion (GM) [4–7], o on animal disease isks such as
Campylobac e [8], Salmonella [9,10] and bo ine spongi o m encephalopa hy (BSE) [11–13]. I has
been ecognised ha he isks a e subjec i ely pe cei ed by consume s, e en i objec i e in o ma ion
on p obabili ies and impac s is a ailable. Consume s espond o isks based on hei subjec i e
pe cep ions o he p obabili y o he e en (i.e., isk pe cep ions) and on hei a i ude owa ds he e en
(i.e., gene al posi i e o nega i e p edisposi ion) [14]. Addi ionally, consume eac ions depend on
se e al ac o s ha a e isk ype-speci ic, including he ex en o which hey can a ec he isk
hemsel es, how amilia hey a e wi h he isk, o wha ex en he exposu e is olun a y, how se e e
he consequences a e (i espec i e o hei p obabili y), and so o h [15–18]. In his s udy, we ocused
on he he e ogenei y o consume eac ions o a se o di e ing isk cases.
In p e ious s udies, geog aphical di e ences among consume s ha e been documen ed as a sou ce
o he e ogenei y. Consume s in he Eu opean Union (EU) ha e been pa icula ly scep ical ega ding
gene ically modi ied p oduc s (e.g., [15,19]), as well as ho mone- ea ed bee [20], and he isk
pe cep ion in gene al has been ound o be highe in Eu ope han in No h Ame ica o Asia [4].
Coun y-speci ic di e ences ha e also been documen ed [21,22]. The analysis o pe cep ions and
a i udes owa d isk has o en ocused on he di e ences be ween expe s and he public [20,23–25].
Howe e , socio-demog aphic ac o s such as age, gende , whe he he esponden has child en and
whe he he esponden li es in u ban o u al su oundings ha e also been ound o co ela e wi h he
isk esponse (see, e.g., [6,10,26–28]).
Beyond indi idual sou ces o he e ogenei y, segmen ing consume s could be use ul in isk s udies
o assess how a ious ypes o isk a ec he e ogeneous consume segmen s and hei buying
beha iou . Iden i ying he eac ions owa ds speci ic isks in sepa a e segmen s helps in a ge ing
in o ma ion and p oduc de elopmen a hose segmen s ha a e mos sensi i e [29]. In addi ion o he
design o policies, unde s anding he beha iou o he e ogeneous consume segmen s is a necessi y o
he iable implemen a ion o policies such as isk communica ion. Segmen ing o he popula ion
acco ding o in o ma ion needs and he de elopmen o in o ma ion wi h high le els o pe sonal
ele ance o speci ic segmen s allows mo e e ec i e communica ion o he isks [20]. Addi ionally, i
consume eac ions o isk di e acco ding o he segmen , he bene i s o p ecau iona y policies will
also di e among segmen s, sugges ing ha equi y conside a ions a e also in ol ed. The e o e,
segmen a ion appea s o be a p ominen app oach in a ge ing isk managemen policies,
communica ion and esea ch.
Howe e , only a ew s udies ha e epo ed consume segmen s based on hei ood isk pe cep ions,
a i udes o beha iou al esponses. In a e iew o consume eac ions o a ood c isis, Wansink [30]
o med heo e ical consume segmen s om a combina ion o isk pe cep ions and p e-exis ing
a i udes owa ds isk. Va ying he le el o isk pe cep ion and a i ude in a ma ix o ou ields, he
illus a ed he beha iou al esponse o isk in hese ou segmen s. In an empi ical, s udy Kennedy
e al. [31] explo ed he con en o ood sa e y a i udes, which included componen s o conce n, us ,
In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4927
he desi e o a high le el o egula ion, accep ance o he numbe o su e ing people, and p e e ence
o he igh o pu chase sa e o unsa e ood. Based on hese a i ude componen s, he au ho s iden i ied
i e segmen s o consume s, wi h one o hem (app ehensi e consume s) bene i ing he mos om
sa e y in o ma ion. Focusing on C eu z eld -Jacob disease, Payne e al. [29] used beha iou al, a i ude
and isk pe cep ion in o ma ion in an expe imen al se ing o segmen consume s. They obse ed ha
g oup membe ships depend on consump ion le els, bu demog aphic a iables also p o ide p o ile
in o ma ion on he segmen s. These p e ious s udies ha e segmen ed consume s based on hei isk
pe cep ions, isk a i udes o beha iou al esponses owa ds isk. Howe e , none o hese s udies has
ocused on segmen a ion based on beha iou al esponses (i.e., pu chasing decisions) unde a ious
isk ypes.
The e ha e also been a ew s udies compa ing he eac ions o a ious isk ypes among he gene al
public [32–34], including he case o ood isks [35–39]. Howe e , mos o hese s udies ha e ocused
on simila i ies and di e ences be ween isk ypes, no he he e ogenei y o people in hei eac ions.
This implies ha in ood sa e y issues he gene al p o ile o indi iduals sensi i e o a ious isk ypes
is unknown. In he case o ood pu chasing decisions, i would also be bene icial o iden i y hose
indi iduals who a e pa icula ly sensi i e o any o he haza ds.
In his s udy, he segmen s o consume s we e o med based on di e ences in beha iou al
in en ions, bu hey we e iden i ied acco ding o isk- ela ed a i udes and socio-demog aphic o
geog aphic ac o s. Mo eo e , we simul aneously conside ed se e al ypes o isk. By ecognizing
ha belie s p ecede a i udes, which u he a ec pu chasing in en ions, we ollowed he ideas o
Ajzen [9,40–42] in a simpli ied o m, whe e he a i udes owa d isk we e assumed o p ecede
pu chasing beha iou s. Ins ead o ocusing on subjec i e no ms, which in he ood-buying se ings a e
ypically inside household no ms, o on pe cei ed beha iou al con ol, which in he case o
hypo he ical isks is challenging o conc e ize in a su ey, we ocused on a ious ypes o a i udes ha
can be assumed o a ec he buying in en ions o poul y unde a ious ypes o isk. Al hough he e
is ex ensi e li e a u e on a i udes ela ed o ood isks ( o a e iew, see [43]), he con en o a i ude
cons uc s applied o model subjec i e isk e alua ions by consume s a ies conside ably [5,20].
We applied he segmen a ion concep o he beha iou al eac ions o Finnish consume s o a ious
isks om poul y mea . The case o poul y is in e es ing o se e al easons. The consump ion o
poul y mea in Finland has inc eased signi ican ly in ecen yea s. The inc eased demand has pa ly
been co e ed by impo s, meaning ha in e na ional sa e y isks can apidly en e he ma ke s due o
globalisa ion o he ood chain. A he same ime, consume s ha e become inc easingly in e es ed in
how mea is p oduced and how sa e i is. I sa e y is comp omised, sho - o long- e m educ ions in
demand a e o be expec ed, as demons a ed in Eu ope, o ins ance, by a ian in luenza H5N1 [44,45].
Fu he mo e, poul y mea can be associa ed wi h se e al isk ypes and hus i s he aims o he s udy.
We p esen ed he esponden s wi h h ee di e en isk cases ela ed o a biological haza d (inc eased
isk o Salmonella in poul y), a chemical haza d (chemical ea men o poul y mea ) and a
echnological haza d (use o gene ically modi ied eed), and analysed how a ious pe cei ed isks
a ec pu chase in en ions, and whe he consume segmen s exis ha eac uni o mly o all o hese
isk cases. By analysing he ole o a i ude cons uc s such as heal h o ien a ion, domes ic p e e ence,
GM nega i i y and sa e y o ien a ion, we also aimed o p o ide in o ma ion on he cha ac e is ics o
he segmen s.
In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4928
2. Me hods and Da a
2.1. The Su ey Da a
Since sa e y ea u es ha e no obse able a ia ion o di ec p ice in s o es, expe imen s [6] o
su eys e ealing pu chase in en ions need o be used o es ima e hei demand. He e, consume su ey
da a on poul y mea consump ion we e used. An online In e ne su ey conduc ed in No embe 2007
p o ided in o ma ion on he eac ion o consume s o isk ypes. The da a we e collec ed by sampling
2,500 esponden s om he In e ne panel o a p i a e su ey company, Talous u kimus. The panel
comp ised 20,000 esponden s who had olun ee ed o pa icipa e in he panel [46]. The o he wise
andom sample was balanced owa d popula ion by adding 70 esponden s ep esen ing he ca ego y o
olde esponden s. The consume da a se (N = 1,312), wi h a esponse a e o 51%, was a
ep esen a i e sample o Finnish In e ne use s be ween he ages o 18 and 79 yea s. The sample was
ep esen a i e o he gene al popula ion ega ding gende , age, income and geog aphical loca ion
(Table 1), bu he educa ional le el in he sample was somewha highe and he p opo ion o
indi iduals wi h child en in he amily somewha lowe han in he gene al popula ion. In he da a se ,
95% o he consume s included poul y in hei mon hly die and almos hal o hem pe cei ed ha he
p opo ion o poul y had inc eased in hei die du ing he p e ious i e yea s.
Table 1. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he esponden s in he da a se and he 18- o 79-yea -old
popula ion in Finland.
In da a In popula ion *
P opo ion o emales, % 51 51
Mean age, yea s 49 47
P opo ion o people wi h a highe educa ional le el (college o uni e si y), % 38 26
P opo ion o people li ing in households wi h a g oss income unde €40,000, % 42 42
P opo ion o people wi h child en (<18 yea s) in he amily, % 29 42
P opo ion o people li ing in no he nmos Finland (Lapland), % 4 4
P opo ion o consume s ha ing poul y in hei mon hly die , % 95 N/A
P opo ion o consume s who ha e inc eased he sha e o poul y in hei die
du ing he las i e yea s, %
49 N/A
* Sou ce: www.s a . i, 2009. N/A deno es da a no a ailable.
Fo dependen a iables, he su ey measu ed he condi ional pu chase in en ions o he esponden s
ega ding poul y p oduc s unde h ee di e en isk cases. These h ee cases a e he e collec i ely
called “ isk p oduc s”, bu i should be no ed ha he las wo cases a e objec i ely only po en ially
iskie han s anda d p oduc s. A isk p oduc he e hus e e s o isk as pe cei ed by he consume .
Case 1 conce ned biological isk, he zoono ic isk ela ed o Salmonella, wi h a quan i a i e
explana ion. The le els o mo bidi y and mo ali y de i ed om he Finnish Na ional Salmonella
Con ol P og amme we e p o ided o he esponden s. The esponden s we e old ha 3,300 pe sons
annually become mildly and 400 se iously ill ( equi ing a en ion om a doc o o hospi al ea men )
a e ea ing poul y mea . They we e asked o conside a si ua ion whe e 19,800 pe sons become
mode a ely ill, 2,400 se iously ill and addi ionally ou pe sons die annually due o ea ing poul y mea .
Hal o he esponden s, chosen andomly, we e asked how he isk would a ec hei consump ion
In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4929
decisions i he poul y we e hal o he cu en p ice. These esponden s we e p o ided a esponse
scale o ou al e na i es o inc eased use (25%, 50%, 75%, 100% inc ease), one al e na i e o “no
e ec ”, and ou al e na i es o dec eased use (25%, 50%, 75%, no use). Hal o he esponden s we e
asked abou hei eac ions i he p ice emained unchanged. Fo hem, he esponse scale was “no
e ec ” and ou al e na i es o dec eased use (25%, 50%, 75%, no use).
Case 2 conce ned chemical sa e y, and he esponden s we e p esen ed a scena io whe e chemical
ea men is an al e na i e app oach o main ain p oduc sa e y: “The sa e y o poul y mea in Finland
is ensu ed wi h good p oduc ion hygiene h oughou he p oduc ion chain. An al e na i e app oach is
o ea he mea p oduc s be o e hey each he consume wi h chemicals o elimina e po en ial
pa hogens. In e na ional ade nego ia ions may lead o he ma ke en y o chemically ea ed mea in
he EU.” The exac name o he possible chemical (chlo ine) was no men ioned in he su ey. A e
his in o ma ion, a ou -le el scale was p esen ed o he esponden s o indica e hei willingness o
choose he p oduc : (a) i i was cheape han he con en ional p oduc ; (b) i i had he same p ice as
he con en ional p oduc ; (c) e en i i was mo e expensi e han he con en ional p oduc ; o
(d) would no choose he p oduc a all.
Case 3 ela ed o echnological isk, and i was explained o he esponden s ha gene ically
modi ied soya was no a he ime o he su ey used in poul y p oduc ion in Finland bu was a u u e
al e na i e ( eed con aining GM soy en e ed he Finnish eed ma ke s in 2013). The pu chase in en ion
was asked i GM eed was used in p oduc ion. The same scale was implemen ed as in Case 2.
In all h ee cases, he esponden s who would s ill buy he p oduc (al hough possibly a a lowe
p ice) we e coded in he “yes” ca ego y, and he esponden s who would s op buying al oge he we e
coded in he “no” ca ego y. In o he wo ds, in Case 1, a dec eased amoun o use was also coded in he
“yes” ca ego y.
We es ed al e na i e modelling app oaches. Fi s , we used he whole ange o scales o he
dependen a iables, i.e., he o iginal ou -le el scale o chemical isk and echnological isk and he
o iginal i e-le el scale o biological isk. We unde ook o dinal eg ession (o de ed logi model).
Howe e , he es o pa allel lines implied ha he slope coe icien s in he models we e no equal
ac oss all esponse ca ego ies. Fo such da a, he app op ia e model would be he mul inomial logi
model ins ead o o dinal eg ession. We es ima ed he mul inomial logi models, bu in he case o he
ou -ca ego y dependen a iable, no s able solu ion was ound because o he low p opo ion o
esponses in one ca ego y. The model wi h a h ee-ca ego y dependen a iable did no p o ide us wi h
conside ably mo e in o ma ion han he bina y app oach, and because he mul ica ego y app oach
made he compa isons be ween he isk ypes mo e di icul , we ended up using he bina y coded
a iables, as de ailed abo e.
To p o ide independen a iables o modelling, he su ey included ques ions ela ing o consume
pa e ns o using poul y mea , se e al a i ude and belie ques ions ela ing o poul y p oduc ion, and
socioeconomic backg ound a iables. The ela i e amoun o poul y mea in he die was cons uc ed
om he i e-class scale measu ing he equency o poul y consump ion. The inal a iable was
exp essed ela i e o he consump ion equency o o he ypes o ood ( ege a ian, ish, bee , po k).
The a i ude a iables included heal h o ien a ion, domes ic p e e ence, GM nega i i y and sa e y
o ien a ion (Table 2). S uc u ed ocus g oup discussions [47] on poul y mea wi h di e en ypes o
consume s we e u ilized in de eloping he measu es. The salien issues om he ocus g oups we e

In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4930
also e lec ed wi h measu es a ailable om he li e a u e (e.g., [48–51]). The eliabili y o heal h
o ien a ion, domes ic p e e ence and GM nega i i y measu es was analysed wi h C onbach’s alpha
(Table 2).
Heal h o ien a ion was measu ed wi h eigh s a emen s om he measu es o gene al heal h in e es
in he ood se ing p esen ed by Roininen e al. [48] using a Like scale om one ( ully disag ee) o
i e ( ully ag ee). One o he i ems was d opped o ob ain an accep able C onbach’s alpha and se en
i ems o med he inal a iable, summa ised by he mean o he i em esponses. The s a emen s we e as
ollows: (1) Fo me i is impo an ha my daily ood is low in a ; (2) Fo me i is impo an ha my
daily ood con ains plen y o i amins and mic onu ien s; (3) The heal hiness o snacks is i ele an
o me ( e e sed); (4) I do no a oid any oods, e en i hey aise my choles e ol le el ( e e sed);
(5) I make su e ha all he ood I ea is heal hy; (6) I ea wha I wan and do no ca e much abou he
heal hiness o ood ( e e sed); (7) I always ollow a heal hy and balanced die .
Table 2. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he poul y use a iable and he a i ude-based a iables,
including C onbach’s alphas whe e applicable.
Minimum Maximum Mean S d. de ia ion C onbach’s alpha
Rela i e amoun o poul y
mea in he die 0.26 2.27 0.81 0.26
A i ude-based a iables
Heal h o ien a ion 1.00 5.00 3.63 0.73 0.857
Domes ic p e e ence 1.17 5.00 4.17 0.64 0.786
GM nega i i y 1.00 5.00 3.94 1.03 0.931
Sa e y o ien a ion 0.26 2.37 1.14 0.18
Based on he ocus g oups and p e ious s udies on coun y o o igin e ec s [50,51], he a i ude
owa ds Finnish p oduc ion was measu ed by six belie s a emen s ega ding domes ic poul y
p oduc ion: (1) By buying Finnish poul y mea I can a ec employmen in Finland; (2) I buy Finnish
poul y mea , because I alue Finnish p ima y p oduc ion; (3) I do no pay a en ion o he o igin o he
poul y mea ( e e sed); (4) Finnish poul y mea canno be dis inguished om impo ed poul y mea
( e e sed); (5) I buy Finnish poul y mea because I us Finnish ood p oduc ion; (6) Finnish poul y
p oduc s should be ma ked wi h a label o in o m he consume s abou he o igin. A Like scale om
one ( ully disag ee) o i e ( ully ag ee) was used. The inal a iable o domes ic p e e ence was he
mean o he esponses o he six s a emen s.
Ins ead o gene al a i udes owa ds GM (e.g., [49]), he GM nega i i y s a emen was a ge ed
speci ically a he use o GM eed in poul y p oduc ion. The measu e was o med as a mean om ou
s a emen s measu ing belie s ela ed o GM eed in he poul y p oduc ion chain wi h a Like scale
om one ( ully disag ee) o i e ( ully ag ee): (1) The impac s o mea g own using GM eed on
humans a e no known; (2) The impac s o GM eed on p oduc ion animals a e no known; (3) The
impac s o GM eed on he na u al en i onmen a e no known; (4) The gene ic modi ica ion o
ag icul u al plan s is e hically ques ionable.
The sa e y o ien a ion was cons uc ed om a ques ion measu ing he impo ance o se e al quali y
cues [52–54] aced when buying poul y p oduc s. In he inal a iable, he esponden s’ a ing o
sa e y om one (no a all impo an ) o i e (ex emely impo an ), was di ided by he mean o he
In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4931
impo ance o he o he a ibu es: as e, heal hiness, du a ion o use, p ice, easiness o use, a ac i e
appea ance, sui able package size, wide ange o a ailable p oduc s, and clea ly ma ked coun y o
o igin. In o he wo ds, sa e y o ien a ion measu ed he impo ance o sa e y ela i e o he impo ance
o he o he a ibu es.
The co ela ions be ween he a i ude a iables we e ela i ely low, being unde 0.3 be ween all he
a iables. Al hough low, he co ela ions we e signi ican be ween domes ic p e e ence and all
he o he a i ude a iables, indica ing a gene al us in domes ic ood, as also epo ed in many
p e ious s udies.
The socio-demog aphic a iables es ed in he models we e gende , age, educa ion, income, amilies
wi h child en, and he esiden ial egion. Income and age we e analysed in classes, as epo ed la e in
Table 5.
2.2. The S a is ical Models
Fo each o he isk p oduc s, a model o pu chase in en ion was cons uc ed. As he dependen
a iables we e dicho omous, he me hod used o modelling each pu chase in en ion sepa a ely was
logis ic eg ession analysis [55]. The dependen a iable in he models was whe he he esponden
would con inue buying poul y mea unde a change in i s sa e y o s op buying i . The independen
a iables we e selec ed based on he assump ion o a i udes explaining beha iou al in en ions. We
s a ed he model speci ica ion wi h co ela ion analysis iden i ying mu ually co ela ing independen
a iables and a iables ha ing a signi ican co ela ion wi h each dependen a iable. The ull se o
al e na i e independen a iables was used as a s a ing poin o he model de elopmen . All
non-signi ican a iables (p- alue o e 0.10) we e indi idually emo ed om he model, s a ing wi h
hose ha ing he highes p- alues. In his manne , he in ended pu chase was explained by he
p e iously desc ibed a i ude a iables, bu also by he socio-demog aphic a iables. In addi ion, he
ela i e amoun o poul y in he die was included in he model.
A ew me hods a e a ailable o s udy he e ogenei y, bu i he e a e no s ong, heo y-based
assump ions ega ding he sou ces o he e ogenei y, segmen a ion h ough la en class models is a
good me hod o he analysis. I does no equi e a p io i assump ions ega ding he sou ces o
he e ogenei y and deals well wi h mul iple a iables. The po en ial he e ogenei y o he esponden s
ega ding he pu chase in en ions was he e o e analysed by la en class logis ic eg ession o bina y
choices o all h ee isk p oduc s. I was also expec ed ha la en class models would imp o e he
explana o y powe o he logi models. The basic assump ion in a la en class model o bina y choice
da a is ha he pa ame e s o he eg ession model di e ac oss he es ima ed classes [56].
In he gene al case, he model speci ica ion is:
(1)
The dependen a iable is a dummy a iable o pu chasing decisions unde isk (yi ). The indexes i
and e e o he indi idual and eplica ion, i.e., h ee pu chasing decisions (one o each isk p oduc )
(T = 3). Behind he obse ed a iables exis s an unobse ed nominal a iable x ha indica es K
sepa a e classes, each ha ing hei own dis ibu ion o obse ed a iables, y. In he la en class model,
),()(),(
1
1
co co p ed
i
T
i
K
x
i
p ed
iii zxy zxPzzy
i




In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4932
p io assump ions o he easons o he e ogenei y a e no needed. Ins ead, he a i udinal and
socio-demog aphic a iables zco associa ed wi h he class membe ship a e empi ically examined. The
index indica es each backg ound a iable. zp ed is a se o Q p edic o a iables in luencing he
dependen a iable in each o he unobse ed classes. In ou case, he p edic o s we e he case-speci ic
dummy a iables (Cases 1 and 2), while Case 3 (GM eed) was he e e ence le el (Q = 2).
In he case o a bina y dependen a iable, he p obabili y o y = 1 ob ains a logis ic o m:
(2)
whe e α and β a e model es ima es. A de ailed desc ip ion o he me hodology is a ailable in Ve mu
and Magidson [57]. In es ima ion, he co a ia es (i.e., a i ude and socio-demog aphic a iables) we e
ac i e, hus a ec ing he solu ion, and hey we e selec ed in he model i he signi icance le el o he
coe icien was below 0.10. The model p o ides p obabili ies o class membe ship o each
obse a ion, and he obse a ions we e classi ied in o he mos p obable class. The la en class model
o bina y choices in La en Gold so wa e was used o es ima e he model. The Bayesian in o ma ion
c i e ion (BIC) indica ed ha he op imal model was a wo-class model. Al hough he Akaike
in o ma ion c i e ion (AIC) con inued o dec ease, he imp o emen om he wo-class model was
mino (Table 3).
Table 3. Bayesian (BIC) and Akaike (AIC) in o ma ion c i e ia o selec ing he numbe o classes.
Numbe o classes BIC(LL) AIC(LL) L² R²
1 4,264 4,248 3,583 0.24
2 3,571 3,478 2,783 0.56
3 3,604 3,433 2,707 0.66
4 3,668 3,419 2,664 0.57
5 3,715 3,388 2,603 0.58
6 3,786 3,381 2,566 0.58
3. Resul s
The measu es o pu chase in en ions e ealed he eac ions o he esponden s o he h ee isk cases
in poul y p oduc ion. In Case 1 (biological isk), abou hal o he esponden s s a ed ha hey would
dec ease hei consump ion o poul y i he isk o mo bidi y and mo ali y inc eased six- old. In he
case o no p ice impac , only 13% o he esponden s would con inue he use o poul y a he cu en
le el and 57% a a lowe le el. I he inc eased disease isk would lead o a p ice educ ion o 50%,
20% o he esponden s would con inue o use poul y a he cu en le el. Fi e pe cen o he
esponden s we e less sensi i e o isk and would conside inc easing he use o poul y i he p oduc
p ice dec eased by hal . Howe e , he p opo ion o esponden s no willing o buy was he same, 30%,
ega dless o he p ice e ec (Table 4).
)exp(1
)exp(
),1(
1
1
p ed
i q
Q
q
qxx
p ed
i q
Q
q
qxx
i
z
z
zxyP









In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4933
Nea ly 90% o he esponden s we e o he opinion ha hey would no choose chemically ea ed
poul y mea (Case 2). Se en pe cen o he esponden s, howe e , we e willing o selec he
chemically ea ed p oduc i i was cheape han con en ional mea .
Table 4. Dis ibu ion o buye s based on pu chase in en ions, p opo ion o buye s, and
co ela ion be ween he pu chase in en ions unde di e en ypes o isk.
Dis ibu ion, % o esponden s P opo ion
o buye s %
Phi coe icien o
co ela ion...
(p- alue)
Would
inc ease
pu chases *
No e ec on
pu chases
Would dec ease
pu chases
Would
no
pu chase
...wi h
Case 2
...wi h
Case 3
Case 1
(Biological isk) 2.3 16.3 51.4 30.0 70.0
0.056
(0.043)
0.148
(0.000)
Would
pu chase i
cheape han
con en ional
Would pu chase
i he same p ice
as con en ional
Would pu chase
e en i mo e
expensi e han
con en ional
Would
no
pu chase
Case 2
(Chemical isk) 7.5 2.9 0.7 88.9 11.1
0.361
(0.000)
Case 3
(GM- eed) 23.8 12.0 1.0 63.2 36.8
* This op ion was a ailable only o he i s sub-sample, whe e i was desc ibed ha he p ice would
dec ease by hal . The column “P opo ion o buye s” is he sum o he i s h ee da a columns.
O he esponden s, 63% would no selec poul y mea ed wi h GM eed (Case 3). App oxima ely
25% would selec he GM p oduc i i was cheape han he con en ional p oduc . When asked, o e
90% exp essed he opinion ha GM eed should be ma ked wi h a label.
Table 4 also epo s he co ela ion coe icien s be ween he pu chase in en ions o p o ide a i s
imp ession o whe he he pu chase in en ions unde a ious isks a e co ela ed wi h each o he . The
co ela ion coe icien s show s onge dependency be ween he in en ions unde he wo isk ypes
ela ed o p oduc ion, i.e., chemical isk and GM isk. The pu chase in en ion unde biological isk is
associa ed mo e weakly wi h he in en ions unde he o he wo isk ypes.
Table 5 p esen s he logis ic eg ession models and he a iables ha a ec he buying in en ion o
each isk p oduc . This p o ides an oppo uni y o compa e he associa ion o pe cei ed isks wi h
a ious backg ound a iables. Fo Case 1 (biological isk), he pu chase in en ion p obabili y was
signi ican ly a ec ed by he amoun o poul y in he esponden ’s die . This p obably indica es ha
when he p opo ion o poul y in he die inc eases, consume s pe cei e he p obabili y o in ec ion o
inc ease. The e ec o he heal h o ien a ion o he esponden was sligh ly highe and had a lowe
p- alue in he case o biological isk han in he models o o he p oduc s. Sa e y o ien a ion
consis en ly a ec ed he choice in all models, bu he e ec was sligh ly lowe o biological isk han
o he o he isks. Women we e mo e likely o educe hei pu chase in en ion as biological isk
inc eased, bu he e ec o gende was e en highe o he o he isk p oduc s. Younge people eac ed
In . J. En i on. Res. Public Heal h 2013, 10 4940
O e all, he s udy demons a ed ha isk ma e s o consume s, no all isk is equal, and consume
ypes eac somewha di e en ly o a ious ypes o isk. Taking such di e si y in o accoun in isk
assessmen , isk managemen and isk communica ion is a challenge o au ho i ies, as well as o
ood manu ac u e s.
Con lic s o In e es
The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es .
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