TRANSITION
TO1
DEMOCRACY -OR ANSCHLUg?
THE
TWO
GERMANIES AND EUROPE
Klaus
on
Beyme
Ins i u i Poli ische Wiseizscha an de Uni e si a Heidelbe g
Abs ac
In hispa e , Klaw on Beyme discusses he causes and consequences u he
Ge man un8ca ion p ocess.
in
he ame u ansi ions o democ acy in ex-
socialis Eu ope. Fi s jy, he shows ha classical models o democ a ic ansi ion
auailable in oli ical science a e no sui able o he Ge man case, bein
necessay o ka1 wi h speczjc ac o s like cul u al pene a ion u he ~ede aT
Republzc in o he Denzoc a ic Republic, condi ions o a ansi ion we e mo e
a ou able han in o h socialzs egimes, and
d
zs
ac , a he same ime,
emo ed any possibili y u claimin a a hi d wayw o democ a ic socialism.
FinalLy, he au ho goes on i.om 6e man na ional con ex o in e na ional
si ua ion, analyzing upon wzch op ions wo ld leade s ga e a las g een ligh o
unz$ca ion in
i s
p esen o m.
Resum
En aques a icle, Klaus on Beyme discu eix les causes
i
conse ü ncies
delp océs din; ;caciÓ aleman a, en el ma c de la ansició ca a la %moc d-
cia de 1Eu opa ex-socialis a. ZnP ime lloc, ens mos a que e
e
s models cldssics
de ansició democ d ica disponzbles en ci ncia polí ica no són aplicables al
cas alemany, i, pe an , la necessi a de ac a ac o s es ecí zcs com aya la
pene ació cul u al de la República Fede al en
;
a Repúb zca emoc 2 zca, o
la qües ió nacional. En segon lloc, on Beyme a gumen a que a causa dáques-
a especial si uació de la República Democ d zca, les condicions pe a una
ansició democ d ica e en més a o ables que en al es ims socialis es,
i
que, al ma eix emps, a& allunya a qualse olpossibili a Ap opu a una
(( e ce a ia de social~sme democ d ic. En da e lloc,
1
ih o passa &con ex
nacional alemany a
la
si uació in e nacional, pe anali za quines o cions
o ma ac ual.
e
po a en els líde s mundials a dona ca a blanca a la unz icdció en a se a
En es e a iculo,
Khw
on Byme discu e
b
causas y consecuencias delp o-
ceso de unzjcación alemana, en el ma co de la ansición hacia la democ acia
de
la
Eu opa ex-socialis a. En p ime luga , mues a cómo 10s modelos clásicos
Pape s
39 (1972) (23-42)
ccPape sn: Re is a de Sociologia
de ansición democ ú ica diponibles en ciencia polí ica no son aplicables al
caso alemún,
y
ue es necesa io wa a ac o es es ec jcos como son lapene ación
cul u al de la LKpÚblica Fede al en la Repú
!
lica Democ ú ica, o la cues idn
nacional. En se undo luga , on Byme a gumen a que, debido a esa especial
si uación de la $ública Democ ú zca,
i
condiciones pa a una ansiczón de-
moc a' ica e an mús a o ables que en o os e ímenes socialis as,
y
que, al mis-
mo
Lm
o, ell0 alqaba cualquie posibilida dep opu a una (( e ce a ia
e
de socia ismo democ ú ico. Po Úl zmo, el au o pasa de con ex o nacional ale-
mún a la si uación in e nacional, pa a analiza quk opciones lle a on a
10s
li-
de es mundiales a da ca a blanca a la uni icaczón en su i ma ac ual.
To analyse he Ge man ques ion in his ansi o y momen is isky in se-
e al espec s. The Ge man no elis Ma in Walse who unden en a me a-
mo phosis om a ellow a elle o he Communis s o a Ge man na ionalis
pu in blun ly: ((He who does no ge bellow his in ellec ual le el when alking
abou Ge many has no in ellec ual le el a all)). The opic has pi alls e e y-
whe e:
-
i is highly connec ed wi h emo ions wha e e he iew o he w i e ,
-
i is in
lux,
ccwo ds a e ou da ed in you mou h)) as a cynic pu i . The in-
c easing numbe o ac o s who claim o ha e a say in he Ge man uni i-
ca ion p ocess makes p ognosis almos impossible.
-
Scien i ic analysis o his unique e en lacks concep s. T ansi ion o demo-
c acy in a highly pene a ed sys em does no ollow he es ablished ules
o his b anch o knowledge.
The ansi ion o democ acy in Eas Ge many su p ised he wo ld in wo
espec s as an e en qui e unexpec ed by expe s:
1)
The sudden collapse o he socialis egimes was an icipa ed no e en by
expe s. The insigh s o o me esea ch on
ansi ion o democ acy
p o ed
no o be applicable o he new cases.
2)
Wi hin his egime shi he Eas Ge man case de ian in so a , as ew had
expec ed he
ise o na ionalism in Ge many.
U iexpec ed oo was he eno -
mous speed in which all he majo allies and o me oes in Eas e n Eu ope
ecognized he igh o he Ge mans o sel -de e mina ion on he ques ion
o uni y. The only jus i ied conce n we e he condi ions o a new secu i y
sys em a e he shakeup o he old one.
T ansi ion o Democ acy -o
AnschluG?
1
TRANSITION TO DEMlOCRACY
In hi d wo ld coun ies many schola s in he adi ion o
mode nizd ion
heo
y
de eloped a
heoy
o jLnc ionalp e equisi es
o democ acy.
A
Hunga ian
ambassado ecen ly men ioned in an in e na ional symposium ha schola s
in his coun y ook i o g an ed ha below he le el o
$
6000 o g oss do-
mes ic p oduc pe capi a he e we e no chances o de elop a s able democ acy
(Ende, 1989, p. 13).
This conclusion is highly ques ionable because i igno es he p ope poli-
ical condi ions, specially hose wi hin he Eu opean in e na ional sys em.
The sea ch o co ela ions be ween de elopmen al s ages and p ospec s o s a-
ble democ acy a e e en mo e p oblema ic in he case o he socialis coun ies
han unde Thi d Wo ld condi ions o se e a1 easons:
-
Communis egimes imposed equaliza ion and social and poli ical
Gleichs-
chal ung.
Thus he social lhe e ogenei y and agmen a ion is less de eloped
han in de eloping coun ies. The
ancien égime
has, so o speak, c ea ed
some p e equisi es o democ acy which a e lacking in de eloping coun-
ies.
-
Typologies o communis coun ies showed li le co ela ion wi h he de-
g ee o
ep ession
in he espec i e coun y. The poo es coun y, Romania,
and he iches coun ies; such as he GDR and Czechoslo akia we e on
op o he ep ession scale.
-
The deg ee o
expe ience wi h democ a ic poli ics
showed no co ela ion
wi h de elopmen . Romania s a ed only la e, he GDR led he mo emen
in i s inal s age. Bu h~e ue o e unne s we e Poland and Hunga y,
coun ies in he middle o all de elopmen al scales. Czechoslo akia s a ed
a e he GDR, bu han de eloped he ambi ion -as one o he ebelling
s uden s pu i in on cl wes e n came as- o inish in one week wha
he GDR did in wo mon hs in o de o en e he Guinness book o e-
co ds.
I is no ewo hy, howe e , ha a whole g oup o coun ies, independen
o i s s age o de elopmen joined a peace ul e olu ion. I s oes in he spi i
o he ancien égime spoke o, a conse a i e e olu ion, in o de o a oid he
insul o a
con e- e olu ion
(Ende, 1989, p.
1).
The main explana ion is an
in e na ional one: he e we e clea indica o s ha Moscow would no supp ess
he uphea al by enewing he
B ezhne doc ine.
A e he app oach o unc ional p e equisi es gene ic and o ganiza ional
explana ions o democ a iza ion sp ead in he social sciences. Rus ow (1970,
p. 346) was one o he i s o ein oduce mo e poli ical a iables agains he
((Pape s)): Re is a de Sociologia
sociological and economic explana ions. He ended up, howe e , wi h
gene ic
sequences o s ages
in he adi ion o B in on's (~Ana omy o Re olu ion)). The
explana ion was highly indi idualized and ha dly any gene al heo e ical con-
clusion was le .
Recen app oaches concen a ing on
ac o s
and
o ganizd ional heo ies
seem
o be mo e p omising in explaining he peace ul e olu ions o Eas e n Eu-
ope.
The main ac o , he masses, we e oo weak o explain he success. Why did
he secu i y o ces wi h he excep ion o Romania gi e in so quickly? The o -
ma ion o masses ia
peace il aining by chu ches
(Poland, GDR, CSSR) and
een o cemen o he ac o s ia
in e na ional
Wand o he o ganiza ional a-
iables a e impo an condi ions o success, bu hey do no suEce o explain
why he es ablishmen did no igh mo e ie cely.
Adam P zewo ski (1 986, p. 50) lis ed ou easons o explain why c acks
begin o appea in au ho i a ian egimes and libe aliza ion becomes possible:
-
The au ho i a ian egime has
ealized he+nc ional condi ions
ha led o
i s es ablishmen .
-
The egime has
los
i s
legi imacy.
-
ConJlic s in he uling bloc,
pa icula ly in he mili a y led o an appeal o
ou side g oups o suppo by some ac ions.
-
Fo eign p essu e
o pu on a democ a ic ace leads o comp omises.
The ou p oposi ions can be es ed in he case o he collapse o commu-
nis egimes:
1)
Socialis coun ies ha e ha dly a
inc ion,
as many mili a y dic a o -
ships which we e mean o p e en a s a e om d i ing o he le ( he case
o F anco Spain), o a coun e e olu ion agains socialis ans o ma ion such
as in Chile. Only he collapse o he G eek colonels may be explained by his
unc ional conside a ion. The
GDR
is a good
de ian example:
i had no em-
po a y unc ion bu was ounded o pe manence. The na ion was spli o
make possible a socialis s a e on Ge man e i o y. The uncional a gumen
mus be e e sed: as soon as he GDR ga e up i s bu eauc a ic socialism, i
los i s unc ion and
aison d2 e.
The slogan
we a e hepeople
wi hin a mon h
was subs i u ed by he mo o
we a e onepeople.
In he middle o he 1970s he au ho o his a icle s ill assumed ha
communism had a s ong capaci y o enewal o i s ideology ( on Beyme,
1982, p. 445). Re o ms unde Kh ushche and he ea ly B ezhne
e a
made
his plausible. In he las
20
yea s, howe e , bou geois sys ems ha e shown
much mo e capaci y o adap ce ain socialis poli ical ins umen s (wel a e
T ansi ion o Democ acy -o AnschluB?
policies, adical democ a iza ion, cohe en planning), whe eas socialis coun-
ies pe i ied and p o ed unable o adop he achie emen s o wes e n demo-
c acy (legal s a e, plu alism, ma ke o ces).
Only Go bache was able o o ganize such a de elopmen o m abo e.
A -
e
5
yea s o hal -hea ed nieasu es he ca ied ou he decision o enounce
he leading ole o he pa y ,and o acknowledge a de ac o mul ipa y sys em
which exis s al eady in some: epublics. Go bache da ed he loss o he lead
o socialis ideology abou
1973
when he oi1 c isis imposed adical changes
in capi alis coun ies whe eas socialis coun ies s ill exe cized he men ali y
o ideological sel - ingh enousness. The GDR in he p opaganda was mo e
ag essi e and less capable o lea ning han mos o he o he egimes because
o i s
shaky legi imacy
in a di ided na ion. E e y nigh he class enemy came
o he li ing ooms o millions o GDR ci izens, in luences which he o ical
p opaganda ied o coun e balance. This nega i e compe i ion made he sys-
em s ill mo e uncapable o adap ing o new needs.
2)
A
second hypo hesis is ha au ho i a ian egimes collapse when hey
loose legi imacy.
Mode n democ acy sys em a e legi imized mainly by ou
p inciples which hey de eloped in a a he uni o m his o ical sequence:
-
legal s a e
-
na ional s a e
-
democ a ic s a e
-
wel a e s a e.
a)
The
legal s a e
was he only ins i u ion excep o he na ional s a e
which was de eloped in mos o he Eas Eu opean coun ies which ne e ex-
pe ienced ull democ acy. The e i o y o he GDR was pa o a Ge man a-
di ion o pay o demands o democ acy wi h he minimal equi emen s o he
legal s a e (Rech ss aa ), which s ill explains he
legalism
o he Ge man poli-
ical cul u e.
Ca e 's campaign o emphasizing human igh s was conside ed by many
ac o s -e en in he Wes -- as a kind o in e e ence. Bu he p ocess o he
Helsinki con e ence
which was conside ed in he i s yea s a ic o y o So ie
diplomacy became an ideological boome ang. Inc easingly he So ie Union
was accused o iola ing hu nan igh s, inc easingly opposi ions claimed hese
igh s. Especially in Eas Ge many he iola ion o hese igh s was so isible
because o he
mons osi y o he wall.
Though he GDR was milde in i s e-
p ession han many o he coun ies om Czechoslo akia down o Romania,
he iola ion o igh s was mo e se e ely el because o pe manen compa i-
sons wi h he Wes e n pa o Ge many.

ccPape s)): Re is a de Sociologia
6)
The
na ional s a e
p inciple was iola ed in wo espec s: many socialis
coun ies had losses o e i o y o he So ie Union (in he Hunga ian case
o o he neighbou s bu because o So ie in e e ence). The B ezhne doc-
ine o
limi edso e eign y,
se e al imes democs a ed ia a med in e en ions
o he ed a my (GDR 1953, Hunga y 1956,
CSSR 1968) eminded he com-
munis coun ies e e y day o he limi s o na ional s a ehood unde socialis
condi ions.
The GDR was a special case o na ional unde legi ima ion. Kissinge i o-
nically has called he Fede al Republic an economy in sea ch o highe pu -
pose. Fo he GDR he bonmo could be e e sed: he GDR had a high ideo-
logical goa1 bu was an unde de eloped economy (compa ed o Wes
Ge many, and i s o me s anda ds). The Fede al Republic clung o he idea
o na ional uni y unde he no ion o a
cul u al na ion.
The
class na ion
which
he GDR had launched in o he in e na ional deba e, con ained
ei ca ions
o he objec i is dejni ion,
whe eas he Wes e n no ion o a na ion would a -
he aim a he subjec i e side o an
e eyday-plebisci e.
The Wes Ge man economy ccin sea ch o a highe goal)) con inued o speak
o he whole o Ge many. Some imes wi h g o esque consequences. Al eady
he name o he Ge man s a e -li e ally ansla ed ((Fede al Republic Ge -
many)) does no make sense in mos o he languages. This may ha e a la e e-
wa d: he mos likely na ne o a uni ied Ge many DEUTSCHE BUNDES-
REPUBLIK makes a di e ence only in Ge man many o he na ions can keep
he name hey ha e used so a o he Wes e n pa o he coun y. The
la en
acism
ha he Fede al Republic conside ed e e ybody o Ge man ongue as
a Wes Ge man ci izen, e en in hose pa s o he o me Empi e which we e
conside ed as being los o good is back i ing. This b ough he Bonn egime
in o se ious di icul ies. When Go bache made possible he exodus o hun-
d ed housands o Ge man speaking So ie ci izens and encou aged his allies
in Poland and elsewhe e o do he same, he in lux was ha dly ole able.
Social
un es
in he Fede al Republic and he ise o he
new igh -wing ex emis s
we e
a consequence. Bonn ca ne close o he la en desi e o ebuild he wall om
he o he side, bu i was
p isone o
i s
ownpan-ge man cons i u ional my hology.
No o eigne and ha dly any Ge man unde s ood ha he Ka ls uhe Cons i-
u ional Cou uled in he case o he basic ag eemen wi h he GDR, in 1973
(BVe GE 36, 1/26) ecognizing a second Ge man s a e, ha he bo de
- hough being he mos impe meable building since he Chinese wall and
ce ainly less pe meable han e en he limes he Romans buil in B i ain and
Ge many- was said o ha e a legal quali y no di e en om he bounda ies
be ween Wes Ge man Laende .
All his would ha e been poli ical my hology wi hou impo ance had no
he majo i y o he Eas Ge mans used Wes Ge many as a
e e ence cul u e.
T ansi ion o De noc acy -o Anschlu 3?
Mos o he p ominen Eas Ge man li e a u e -which was, maybe he mos
unique and au onomous p alduc o he GDR in he las
40
yea s- was p in-
ed in he Fede al Republic. One o he majo ad an ages o uni ica ion o
Ge man li e a u e will be ha i looses on bo h sides o he o me i on cu -
ain i s excessi e p eoccupa ion wi h la
que elle allemande
and i s human di-
mension. I one eads Boll, ~G ass, Johnson o Walse o men ion only some
o he au ho s also known alb oad, i becomes ob ious ha pos wa Ge man
li e a u e p o incialized in a way simila o he cap i e na ions o Eas e n Eu-
ope in he 19 h cen u y. The e was a p edominance o wo opics:
lo e
hey
had and he
na ion
hey had no .
I
expec ha Ge man cul u e will e u n o
i s o me cosmopoli ism in he adi ion o Goe he, Heine o Thomas Mann
and his would be a welcome byp oduc o he uni ica ion p ocess.
A
na ion
like o he s has no longe o e lec i s p eca ious si ua ion.
No only he wo Ge man cul u es emainded closely ela ed. Chu ches,
ade unions and many o he
social ins i u ions
we e kep apa by o ce, bu
p ese ed hei o ganiza ional simila i y. The GDR did no de elop a na ional
consciousness o he own --in spi e o so much p opaganda abou he
class
na ion.
The Wes Ge mans in hei majo i y had an iden i y eeling o hei
own, and he younge gene a ion showed li le in e es in he Eas . Bu he
public opinion polls we e equen ly misin e p e ed. Wes Ge man was -a -
e Belgium, a bi-e hnic na ion- he lowes low-sco e on all he scales o na-
ional p ide. Un i1 he la e 1980s abou wo hi ds o he Wes Ge mans
hough ha euni ica ion was impossible. Bu also wo hi ds we e in a ou
o na ional uni y i i p o ed o be possible in he u u e ( on Beyme, 1986).
In he ligh o hese pa adoxes hose who a e a aid o a new Ge man na io-
nalism ge some com o . The Ge mans ha e no changed hei opinion e y
much: E en now, in wa e oi en husiasm only wo hi ds o he Ge mans a e
i mly in a ou o euni ica ion.
c)
A
democ a ic s a e
was he mos impo an aim which igge ed he pe-
ace ul e olu ion o 1989. H[ow was i possible ha Eas Ge many led he i-
nal s age o he p ocess in he Eas e n bloc? One explana ion is ha he
chu ch
unc ioned as a aining g ound o peace ul esis ence. The Lu he an chu ch
has an old e a is adi ion a id unlike Cal inis denomina ions ha dly any e-
olu iona y adi ions. The chu ch ained people o peace ul esis ence, bu
no o e olu ion.
The SED es ablishmen s,ho ly a e he u moil blamed
Wes
Ge man in-
e ee ence
o he e olu ion. This was ha dly ue in e ms o di ec suppo
o m he Bonn go e nmen . In e e ence occu ed
in
an indi ec way, ia
TV.
Wes e n
TVin he days o uphea al had a
mobilizing inc ion.
The people was
in o med abou he numbe o demons a o s las nigh and go news whe e
((Pape s)): Re is a de Sociologia
and when he nex ally was o ake place. This een o cemen encou aged he
people in a coun y wi hou e olu iona y adi ion. Look a he his o y o
Wes Eu opean democ acies such as B i ain, F ance o I aly. Shakespea ean
d amas o killing kings e e ywhe e. In he Ge man Empi e one ha dly inds
a case e en in he middle ages. Ge mans needed encou agemen o de ian
poli ical beha iou . E en in he Wes , Ge mans a e no mal in many espec s
o pa icipa ion, bu s ill show sligh ly less ole ance owa ds uncon en ional
beha iou .
The egula ion o language in he GDR in u moil shows how li le inde-
penden e olu iona y hinking was in ol ed. The new e en s and ins i u ions
we e called wi h Wes Ge man names. The e olu ion was a Wende- he ex-
p ession o he change in go e nmen o 1982. When he S dsiwas abolished
some hing was o subs i u e i . They ound no o he wo d han he Wes Ge -
man Ve a~sun~sschu z. Compa ed o he So ie Union he e olu ion is pla-
yed down. Go bache , howe e , emphasizes he e olu ion o pe es oika in
o de o demons a e con inui y wi h Lenin's impe us a e 1917. I does no
p e en he pe es oika leade s om accep ing wha a PCI-leade , Se gio Se-
g e, ecen ly ad ised o all communis s: ((All o us should inally become e-
isionis s)) (Die Zei , 29. Dec. 1989, p. 2, col.
5).
The e en s o Leipzig a e
called
a
e olu ion some imes by i s ad e sa ies. Jü gen Kuczynski, he nes o
o SED loyalis s in he social sciences, dubbed i a conse a i e e olu ion. He
quo ed Mam, bu he mo e amilia conno a ion is a quasi- ascis adi ion o
hough in he Weima Republic (ibidem, p.
1,
col.
3).
The b eakdown o he au ho i a ian egimes in Sou he n Eu ope acco -
ding o Schmi e (1986, Vol. 1, p.
5)
was acili a ed by he subse ian ole
o he mili a
y
wi h he excep ion o G eece. This a gumen has explana o y
alue also in he case o Eas Eu ope. Subo dina ion o he mili a y was a dou-
ble one: wo he na ional communis pa y and he Red A my wi hin i s bloc.
The B ezhne doc ine, oddly enough, unde mined socialism hough i was
mean o p o ec i . The mili a y o mos socialis s a es was used o ely on
he leading ole o he Red A my. Once Moscow made i clea ha hey
would no in e e e, de ense collapsed e y quickly. I is no by chance ha
Romania is he only de ian case. Romania has emphasized i s ole indepen-
den on Moscow o 20 yea s and did no ake pa in he supp ession o he
P ague sp ing. Romania he e o e elied on he own in e nal secu i y sys em.
Ceausescus main mis ake was, howe e , ha he c ea ed a coun e -a my in he
Secu i a e. This compe i ion o wo a mies encou aged la ge pa s o he mi-
li a y o join he opposi ion in a c i ica1 momen o he ebellion.
Democ a ic adi ions had olde oo s in he GDR han in o he socialis
coun ies. Czechoslo akia had been conside ed mo e democ a ic han Ge -
many be o e he Second Wo ld Wa , bu i is di icul o compa e. Czechos-
T ansi ion o Democ acy -o AnschluB?
lo akia was one o he main winne s a he peace ea ies in he subu bs o Pa-
is, whe eas c(Ve sai1lesn was conside ed as bla an injus ice in Ge many which
did no s eng hen he new sys em o he ic o s, e.g. democ acy. Bu e en
wi hou any democ a ic adi ion he Eas Ge mans would ha e seen how well
he o he Ge many a ed wi h democ acy. Wes e n p opaganda emphasized
ha ma ke economy and ue democ acy a e closely in e ela ed, and since
mos GDR
ci izens p e e ed he o me hey we e also eady o buy he la e .
Democ acy as he o m o go e nmen o he mo e succeeding pa o he
coun y had mo e legi imaq e en in Eas Ge many han he socialis demo-
c acy as a disguise o pa y dic a o ship.
d)
The
wel d e s a e
was he ou h concep o legi imize mode n poli ical
sys ems when social con lic s agg a a ed in he 20 h cen u y. Socialis sys ems
commi ed he e o o p e end ha he ensh ine
pe se
a social s a e and he-
e o e do no need a social policy. F om his ule he GDR was, howe e ,
again a ce ain excep ion. I i 1965 Ulb ich 's daugh e w o e he i s book
de ending social policy. The wo Ge man s a es al eady in he Adenaue e a
beha ed like communica ing ubes. Adenaue ied o compensa e na ional
legi ima ion o his ump s a le by p omo ing wel a e in o de o immunize he
Wes Ge mans agains comn~unism. The o he side had o ac in he same di-
ec ion in o de o p o e ha socialism is supe io and o p e en ha he
mass exodus con inues which weakened he GDR un i1 he cons uc ion o
he Be lin wall in 196 1.
This was p obably he mos solid pa o he legi imacy o he GDR. Un i1
ecen ly many GDR ci izens belie ed ha he GDR had be e achie emen s
in he social sphe e hough hey knew ha he economy o he Wes was su-
pe io .
3)
The hi d eason o he b eakdown o dic a o ship is
dissen among he
eli es
in a ime o e oding ideological zeal. This e osion was no as s ong as
in F anco Spain ( on Beyme, 1971, pp. 123 .). Bu in a momen o c isis i
wo ked in he same di ec ion~. Pa s o he middle le el cad es o he pa y and
some Lo d Mayo s o big ci ies such as Leipzig and D esden, we e no longe
willing o use o ce agains n~ass demons a ions. Some poli icians like Hans
Mod ow (who beca ne p ime minis e ) o Be gho e (who s ayed Lo d Mayo
o D esden in spi e o lea i ig he pa y) we e able o win he con idence as
indi idual poli icians, no ia he pa y. The i s suspended his pa y mem-
be ship, he second ga e i u~p
al oge he .
The pa y as a whole missed i s chance o e o m i sel . In Czechoslo akia
e en he old DuEek c ew had li le chance o play a majo ole. By sena o ial
cou eoisy o P esiden Ha el DubEek was gi en he hono a y bu no e y
ccPape s)): Re is a de Sociologia
diculized in he in e na ional heo y o s a e o being no s a e a all (Bodin)
o a s a e ccmons o similen (Pu endo ). The o chbea e s o a aison dk a
school o hough om Machia elli o Boccalini looked a he Ge mans a he
wi h pi y: pe y li le communi ies wi h nice indus ious people, o una ely
so equen ly d unk ha nobody was able o y o abolish his neighbou 's e-
edom. Su ely his idyllic Ge many is no imminen in he 21 h cen u y. Bu
he isks o an economic gian emaining poli ically and in mili a y ma e s
a dwa ha e o be conside ed.
When he mos eminen schola in Ge man his o y in he Uni ed S a es,
Go don C aig, was honou ed a his 70 h bi hday, he p esiden o S an o d
Uni e si y p aised him as a man who made sense o Ge man his o y hough
e e ybody ag ees ha Ge man his o y does no make sense. The e a e, howe-
e , mo e expe s who ecognize ha he onesided iew om ccLu he o
Hi le )) (and hope ully his will apply also o Russia wi h simila simpli ica-
ions such as cc om Bakunin o Lenin))) is no good guidance o se ling se-
cu i y p oblems in Eu ope. C aigs op ion in Decembe 1989 o Ge many
was s ill a ccbig No)) and a ccsmall
Ayz
o uni ica ion (Zu g og u Eu opa?
1989, p. 183).
The main p oblem o expe s on Ge many is, howe e , ha Ge many has
20 million mo e inhabi an s han he o he bigge na ions, hough he Ge -
mans on bo h sides o he o me i on cu ain did hei bes by he lowes
bi h a es in he whole wo ld o sh ink back o a size which en i les hem o
one na ional s a e. They ied o undo he consequences o accele a ed g ow h
which caused Ge many o o e ake F ance in popula ion igu es in he 19 h
cen u y. In he ligh o coming social p oblems i is likely ha he Ge mans
will make u he e o s in he same di ec ion. Bu do hey ha e o wai un i1
a na ion la ge in size, such as Russia can be accep ed as pa o he Eu opean
communi y? They would ha e o wai s ill qui e a ime. The loose alk abou
he ((Eu opean hous&) may apply o economic and mili a y ques ions, bu e en
Go bache aces eali y ha Eu ope in close in eg a ion o qui e a ime will
no mean cc iom Lisbon o Vladi os ob, and no e en De Gaulle's old ision
c
( iom he A lan ic o he U ab, bu
c
( iom B es o B esa!
e) Time ables o Eu opean unzjca ion a e in dange and cause a ade o
be ween Wes Eu opean in eg a ion and Ge man uni ica ion. In o de o p e-
en Bonn om blocking he Eu opean in eg a ion concessions o Ge man
wishes in hei na ional eelings had o be made. Mi e and in one s a emen
hin ed o his p edicamen . Blamed o ha ing made oo many concessions
o Kohl he said: (calo s Monsieu Kohl es un pa io e)). This was said wi h an
unde one ha Kohl as a pe sonali y o he i s ime became plausible o his
F ench pa ne . Pa io ism is an accep able wo d o F ench ea s.

T ansi ion o Democ acy -o AnschluB?
The discussion o he easons Eu opean eli es had o changing hei mind
on he Ge man ques ion makes i unlikely ha he e o-solu ion will be pu -
sued unless Go bache is oppled by a coup. The p ospec s o his wo s case
scena io o una ely a e dim, since Go bache in Feb ua y 1990 di e si ied his
poli ical suppo by enouncing he leading posi ion o he pa y and ushe ing
in o a mul i-pa y sys em. A kind o Gaullis semi-p esiden ialsys em migh be
he solu ion o a p esiden who does no wan o disband he Communis
pa y al oge he as Hunga y and Poland o he GDR, no wan s o be depen-
den exclusi ely on he pa y majo i y. When Ga il Popo led he demons-
a ion on he ed squa e in Feb ua y 1990 mos o he speeches and he shou-
ing o he masses amoun ed o ((Down he whole Cen al Commi ee -bu
Go bache can s ay)). I Go bache lis ened ca e ully he will ha e disco e ed
he ad an ages o his mixed solu ion o his own in en ions.
In a simila pa adox Go bache seems o ha e disco e ed ce ain ad an ages
in Ge man uni ica ion. I will ce ainly be his scena io o he negocia ions o
come o e i e he ccspi i Rlapallo) wi hou aliena ing he Wes e n powe s.
2)
Neu ali y o a uni iecl Ge man s a e was Go bache 's i s choice. Bu
quickly Wes e n obse e s disco e ed ha he So ie policies in his espec
we e no simply a con inua ion o S alin's ini ia i es o 1952
.
The cccommon
house in Eu opes and he So ie sea ch o a secu i y sys em o e a ching he
o me wo blocs we e se ious. Tha is why neu ali y -opposed by all Wes-
e n and Eas e n neighbou s o Ge many o good easons (a e all he Wei-
ma Reichsweh was ((neu al)) and coope a ed wi h he Red A my)- was no
goal pe se o Go bache 's Ge man policy.
Neu ali y mee s wi h opposi ion in Ge many. I was unaccep ed by he
Ch is ian Democ a s. The Siocial Democ a s in Ge many paid lip se ice o
he NATO bu in a ecen pape hey saw neu ali y o Ge many as a ((goa/
in he long un)). Only he G een pa y was i mly in a ou o neu ali y
-and his a oused new suspicions by he es o he ac o s in and ou side he
coun y. Fo he ime being neu ali y is he leas likely de elopmen .
3)
Ge many emains in he Wes e n sys em bu comp omises a e ound o
So ie secu i y in e es s.
When Kohl came back om Moscow he celeb a ed himsel as ha ing go
a ee hand o uni ica ion. Wha a e he condi ions? asked e e y jou nalis
in he in e iews. No condi ion was he answe . Bu he e we e hin s o wo
main bodies o be consul ed who migh some up wi h condi ions:
-
he ou ic o s o e Nazi Ge man,
-
and he Helsinki successioln con e ence o be held by all 1990.
ccpape s*: Re is a de Sociologia
Gensche p omo ed he o mula
2
( he Ge man s a es) plus
4
( he ic o s):
bu wi hou
ae ic is
-e.g. ga he ing on Ge man ini ia i e and on Ge man
e i o y. The main minimal expec a ion will be ha Ge many solemnly de-
cla es ha he bo de s o
1945
a e sac osanc . This was p omised o he mo-
men a e he GDR elec ions p oducing a legi imized go e nmen anyway.
The
bo de ques ion
is la gely o e a ed in i s impo ance. I will be ha d
o ask he necessa y ma e ial sac i ices om he Wes Ge man popula ion. Bu
ha dly anybody (expec a ew e ugee o ganiza ions) ha e an in e es Eas o
he Ode -Neisse. These a eas ha e always played a mino ole. Qui e a ew
p ejudices con inued o despise hem as ccunde de eloped)) and no cccomple-
ely)) Ge man. (Bo n in Silesia he p esen au ho can da e o men ion wha
ha dly any Wes Ge man would say in public). In he cul u al sphe e he loss
o B eslau and Konigsbe g ce ainly weighs less han he loss o Wilno and
L o in Polish cul u e. The a eas ha e been popula ed and ebuil by Poles.
Which Ge man would claim o be in a ou o pushing he mul icul u al so-
cie y in he di ec ion o s a wi h in eg a ing millions o Poles. The Polish
p oblem will be a s ain on Ge man budge s and a ese e o Ge man exploi-
a ion anyway. You can push Ge many as a o he Wes as possible - he
Poles ollow wes bound as a huge a my o mig an wo ke s and his endency
will g ow as soon as hey bo de di ec ly wi h an es ablished ha d-cu ency
coun y. Mo eo e no se ious poli ician can ask he es au a ion o he Polish
co ido which by i s e y oddi y as a solu ion migh ha e p o oked a wa
e en in a case ha no a Hi le was a ailable o push he issue. Oddly enough,
he main ic o , S alin, c ea ed a new co ido . I Li houania in he long un
b eaks away om he So ie Union. Go bache inhe i s he co ido which
sepa a es a Russian speaking pa o o me Eas P ussian om he Sla ic e-
i o y. Konigsbe g's li le e enge o e Kalining ad!
Fo he ime being he e is only one p oblem wi h Poland Ge many can-
no se le. As a consequence o he mos unequal ea men o he ccgues ic-
o s)) -F ance on De Gaulle's impe inan insis ance go in- he Poles ha-
ing su e ed much mo e han F ance we e kep ou -now, hey a e again
excluded om he o mula
2
plus
4.
Some ac o s migh be eady o gi e in
-bu hey a e a aid ha e e y coun y in ol ed would ask o be p esen and
he ic o s end up wi h a con e ence e en bigge han he Helsinki succession
mee ing.
The Uni ed S a es assu ed Go bache ha hey would no onesidedly y
o bene i om So ie dilemmas a his momen . The new p oposal o educe
he oops o abou
195
O00
gi es he Uni ed S a es an ad an age. They be-
ne i al eady mo eo e , qui e subs an ially by ge ing he So ie o abandon
he co ne s one o he So ie sys em, he GDR. The claim o keep Ge many
in he Na o is close o uncondi ional su ende policies. Bake in Feb ua y
T ansi ion o Democ acy
-o
Anschlug?
1990 launched a new p oposa1 o keep Ge many in he NATO only
as apo-
li ical membe .
In mili a y ma e s e en in he
F ench solu ion
is ha dly accep-
able o Moscow. Un o una ely ecen io s in he So ie Union p e en ed
he leade ship om o e ing a clea policy s andpoin . I is ouching o see
how quickly he o me ccnje - o eign policyn ans o med i sel in o he con-
using pic u e o con adic ing ac o s. In he mo ning She a dnadze said only
neu ali y is a solu ion, in he e ening Go bache hin ed a mo e lexible op-
ions! Unp o essional dile an ism and ccad-hocism)) o So ie policies in his
momen a e a ce ain dange in domes ic as well as in o eign policies.
Gensche 's comp omise o membe ship in he NATO, bu no
Wes e n
oup in Eas Ge many,
is hi:ghly a i icial. So ie oups can s ay in Eas Ge -
many. I hink only o in i e ce ain pa s also in o Wes Ge man e i o y
would be a subs an ial o e om he Wes e n side.
Wha e e solu ion will be he ou come, i is unlikely ha he ou ic o s
will ollow Ma ga e Tha che 's sel -de ea ing concep ha all he Helsinki-
s a es ha e o ag ee o a solu ion, and ha e en li le Mal a should ha e a
igh o e o. The
Helsinkig oup
should ha e no a
nega i e inc ion o e o
bu a he he
posi i e inc ion o c ea e new ins i u ions o a Eu opean secu i y
sys em.
The Wes Eu opean coun ies we e puzzled by he accele a ion o Ge man
uni ica ion which happened o wo easons:
-
The
exodus o he GDRp~puh ion
did no s op: uni ica ion seems o be he
only solu ion o p e en he GDR om bleeding ou .
-
The
in e na ionalsi ua ion
did no exclude he a emp o
oll bah
he de-
elopmen by Moscow policy planne s.
OddIy enough he Communi y s a ed o push he apid
Anschlu lsolu-
ion ia A .
23
o he Basic Law in o de o a oid he necessi y o changes in
he ea y o Rome.
We should be awa e o he ac ha a simila accele a ion is ope a ing
among he o he Comecon coun ies. A he end o 1989 i was s ill easable
o en isage a loose con ede a ion wi h newcome s such as Aus ia, he EFTA
coun ies and he o me Comecon s a es. By sp ing 1990 i became e iden
ha he Communi y should no disc imina e Aus ia which ound i s
applica ion in a condi ion wo se han he o me Moscow sa elli es, and ha
he Comecon coun ies accep ed no solu ion wi hou p ospec s o ull
membe ship a he ea lies con enience.
Wes e n Eu ope is no comple ely p epa ed o cope wi h he exigencies o
his new momen um o Eu opean in eg a ion om B es o B es -as
Ge many has no ye any c~on incing plan o handling uni ica ion and i s
((Pape s)): Re is a de Sociologia
eno mous mone a y cos s bu bo h Eu ope and Ge many a e o ced o
muddle h ough. Economic in eg a ion
will be mo e cos ly by his undue has e:
bu
poli ical in eg a ion
o Eu ope especially he o ma ion o a common
o eign policy, con a y o many ea s will ge easie by his g ea
((sal o mo ale
in eg a i a))
in a pe iod o diminishing Eas Wes ensions.
LITERATURE
Beyme, Klaus on (1
982), Economics and Poli ics wi hin Socialis Sys ems. A Compa-
a iue and Deuelopmen alApp oach,
New Yo k, P aege (Ge man in
1975),
Beyme, Klaus on
(1986),
((Na ional Consciousness and ,Na ionalism: The Case
o he Two Ge manies)).
Canadian Reuiew o S udies in Na ionalism,
No.
2,
pp.
227-248.
Beyme, Klaus on (1
971), Vom Faschismus zu En wicklungsdik a u . Mach eli e und
Opposi ion in Spanien,
Miinchen, Pipe .
C aig,
A.
Go don. aZu g og u Eu opa? De ame ikanische His o ike Go don
A.
C aig iibe ein wiede e einig es Deu schlandn,
De Spiegel4611989,
pp.
183- 187.
((Ende des Kommunismus -und was nun? Zei -Symposium)),
Die Zei , 29
Dec,
1989,
pp.
1-14.
P zewo ski, Adam
(1986),
((Some P oblems in he S udy o he T ansi ion o Demo-
c acy)) in Guille mo O'Donnell
e
al. (eds.),
T ansi ionsJ om Au ho i a ian Rule,
Bal imo e, Johns Hopkins, ol
3,
pp.
337-363.