Transition to Democracy -or Anschluss? The Two Germanies and Europe

TRANSITION TO1 DEMOCRACY -OR ANSCHLUg? THE TWO GERMANIES AND EUROPE Klaus on Beyme Ins i u i Poli ische Wiseizscha an de Uni e si a Heidelbe g Abs ac In hispa e , Klaw on Beyme discusses he causes and consequences u he Ge man un8ca ion p ocess. in he ame u ansi ions o democ acy in ex- socialis Eu ope. Fi s jy, he shows ha classical models o democ a ic ansi ion auailable in oli ical science a e no sui able o he Ge man case, bein necessay o ka1 wi h speczjc ac o s like cul u al pene a ion u he ~ede aT Republzc in o he Denzoc a ic Republic, condi ions o a ansi ion we e mo e a ou able han in o h socialzs egimes, and d zs ac , a he same ime, emo ed any possibili y u claimin a a hi d wayw o democ a ic socialism. FinalLy, he au ho goes on i.om 6e man na ional con ex o in e na ional si ua ion, analyzing upon wzch op ions wo ld leade s ga e a las g een ligh o unz$ca ion in i s p esen o m. Resum En aques a icle, Klaus on Beyme discu eix les causes i conse ü ncies delp océs din; ;caciÓ aleman a, en el ma c de la ansició ca a la %moc d- cia de 1Eu opa ex-socialis a. ZnP ime lloc, ens mos a que e e s models cldssics de ansició democ d ica disponzbles en ci ncia polí ica no són aplicables al cas alemany, i, pe an , la necessi a de ac a ac o s es ecí zcs com aya la pene ació cul u al de la República Fede al en ; a Repúb zca emoc 2 zca, o la qües ió nacional. En segon lloc, on Beyme a gumen a que a causa dáques- a especial si uació de la República Democ d zca, les condicions pe a una ansició democ d ica e en més a o ables que en al es ims socialis es, i que, al ma eix emps, a& allunya a qualse olpossibili a Ap opu a una (( e ce a ia de social~sme democ d ic. En da e lloc, 1 ih o passa &con ex nacional alemany a la si uació in e nacional, pe anali za quines o cions o ma ac ual. e po a en els líde s mundials a dona ca a blanca a la unz icdció en a se a En es e a iculo, Khw on Byme discu e b causas y consecuencias delp o- ceso de unzjcación alemana, en el ma co de la ansición hacia la democ acia de la Eu opa ex-socialis a. En p ime luga , mues a cómo 10s modelos clásicos Pape s 39 (1972) (23-42) ccPape sn: Re is a de Sociologia de ansición democ ú ica diponibles en ciencia polí ica no son aplicables al caso alemún, y ue es necesa io wa a ac o es es ec jcos como son lapene ación cul u al de la LKpÚblica Fede al en la Repú ! lica Democ ú ica, o la cues idn nacional. En se undo luga , on Byme a gumen a que, debido a esa especial si uación de la $ública Democ ú zca, i condiciones pa a una ansiczón de- moc a' ica e an mús a o ables que en o os e ímenes socialis as, y que, al mis- mo Lm o, ell0 alqaba cualquie posibilida dep opu a una (( e ce a ia e de socia ismo democ ú ico. Po Úl zmo, el au o pasa de con ex o nacional ale- mún a la si uación in e nacional, pa a analiza quk opciones lle a on a 10s li- de es mundiales a da ca a blanca a la uni icaczón en su i ma ac ual. To analyse he Ge man ques ion in his ansi o y momen is isky in se- e al espec s. The Ge man no elis Ma in Walse who unden en a me a- mo phosis om a ellow a elle o he Communis s o a Ge man na ionalis pu in blun ly: ((He who does no ge bellow his in ellec ual le el when alking abou Ge many has no in ellec ual le el a all)). The opic has pi alls e e y- whe e: - i is highly connec ed wi h emo ions wha e e he iew o he w i e , - i is in lux, ccwo ds a e ou da ed in you mou h)) as a cynic pu i . The in- c easing numbe o ac o s who claim o ha e a say in he Ge man uni i- ca ion p ocess makes p ognosis almos impossible. - Scien i ic analysis o his unique e en lacks concep s. T ansi ion o demo- c acy in a highly pene a ed sys em does no ollow he es ablished ules o his b anch o knowledge. The ansi ion o democ acy in Eas Ge many su p ised he wo ld in wo espec s as an e en qui e unexpec ed by expe s: 1) The sudden collapse o he socialis egimes was an icipa ed no e en by expe s. The insigh s o o me esea ch on ansi ion o democ acy p o ed no o be applicable o he new cases. 2) Wi hin his egime shi he Eas Ge man case de ian in so a , as ew had expec ed he ise o na ionalism in Ge many. U iexpec ed oo was he eno - mous speed in which all he majo allies and o me oes in Eas e n Eu ope ecognized he igh o he Ge mans o sel -de e mina ion on he ques ion o uni y. The only jus i ied conce n we e he condi ions o a new secu i y sys em a e he shakeup o he old one. T ansi ion o Democ acy -o AnschluG? 1 TRANSITION TO DEMlOCRACY In hi d wo ld coun ies many schola s in he adi ion o mode nizd ion heo y de eloped a heoy o jLnc ionalp e equisi es o democ acy. A Hunga ian ambassado ecen ly men ioned in an in e na ional symposium ha schola s in his coun y ook i o g an ed ha below he le el o $ 6000 o g oss do- mes ic p oduc pe capi a he e we e no chances o de elop a s able democ acy (Ende, 1989, p. 13). This conclusion is highly ques ionable because i igno es he p ope poli- ical condi ions, specially hose wi hin he Eu opean in e na ional sys em. The sea ch o co ela ions be ween de elopmen al s ages and p ospec s o s a- ble democ acy a e e en mo e p oblema ic in he case o he socialis coun ies han unde Thi d Wo ld condi ions o se e a1 easons: - Communis egimes imposed equaliza ion and social and poli ical Gleichs- chal ung. Thus he social lhe e ogenei y and agmen a ion is less de eloped han in de eloping coun ies. The ancien égime has, so o speak, c ea ed some p e equisi es o democ acy which a e lacking in de eloping coun- ies. - Typologies o communis coun ies showed li le co ela ion wi h he de- g ee o ep ession in he espec i e coun y. The poo es coun y, Romania, and he iches coun ies; such as he GDR and Czechoslo akia we e on op o he ep ession scale. - The deg ee o expe ience wi h democ a ic poli ics showed no co ela ion wi h de elopmen . Romania s a ed only la e, he GDR led he mo emen in i s inal s age. Bu h~e ue o e unne s we e Poland and Hunga y, coun ies in he middle o all de elopmen al scales. Czechoslo akia s a ed a e he GDR, bu han de eloped he ambi ion -as one o he ebelling s uden s pu i in on cl wes e n came as- o inish in one week wha he GDR did in wo mon hs in o de o en e he Guinness book o e- co ds. I is no ewo hy, howe e , ha a whole g oup o coun ies, independen o i s s age o de elopmen joined a peace ul e olu ion. I s oes in he spi i o he ancien égime spoke o, a conse a i e e olu ion, in o de o a oid he insul o a con e- e olu ion (Ende, 1989, p. 1). The main explana ion is an in e na ional one: he e we e clea indica o s ha Moscow would no supp ess he uphea al by enewing he B ezhne doc ine. A e he app oach o unc ional p e equisi es gene ic and o ganiza ional explana ions o democ a iza ion sp ead in he social sciences. Rus ow (1970, p. 346) was one o he i s o ein oduce mo e poli ical a iables agains he ((Pape s)): Re is a de Sociologia sociological and economic explana ions. He ended up, howe e , wi h gene ic sequences o s ages in he adi ion o B in on's (~Ana omy o Re olu ion)). The explana ion was highly indi idualized and ha dly any gene al heo e ical con- clusion was le . Recen app oaches concen a ing on ac o s and o ganizd ional heo ies seem o be mo e p omising in explaining he peace ul e olu ions o Eas e n Eu- ope. The main ac o , he masses, we e oo weak o explain he success. Why did he secu i y o ces wi h he excep ion o Romania gi e in so quickly? The o - ma ion o masses ia peace il aining by chu ches (Poland, GDR, CSSR) and een o cemen o he ac o s ia in e na ional Wand o he o ganiza ional a- iables a e impo an condi ions o success, bu hey do no suEce o explain why he es ablishmen did no igh mo e ie cely. Adam P zewo ski (1 986, p. 50) lis ed ou easons o explain why c acks begin o appea in au ho i a ian egimes and libe aliza ion becomes possible: - The au ho i a ian egime has ealized he+nc ional condi ions ha led o i s es ablishmen . - The egime has los i s legi imacy. - ConJlic s in he uling bloc, pa icula ly in he mili a y led o an appeal o ou side g oups o suppo by some ac ions. - Fo eign p essu e o pu on a democ a ic ace leads o comp omises. The ou p oposi ions can be es ed in he case o he collapse o commu- nis egimes: 1) Socialis coun ies ha e ha dly a inc ion, as many mili a y dic a o - ships which we e mean o p e en a s a e om d i ing o he le ( he case o F anco Spain), o a coun e e olu ion agains socialis ans o ma ion such as in Chile. Only he collapse o he G eek colonels may be explained by his unc ional conside a ion. The GDR is a good de ian example: i had no em- po a y unc ion bu was ounded o pe manence. The na ion was spli o make possible a socialis s a e on Ge man e i o y. The uncional a gumen mus be e e sed: as soon as he GDR ga e up i s bu eauc a ic socialism, i los i s unc ion and aison d2 e. The slogan we a e hepeople wi hin a mon h was subs i u ed by he mo o we a e onepeople. In he middle o he 1970s he au ho o his a icle s ill assumed ha communism had a s ong capaci y o enewal o i s ideology ( on Beyme, 1982, p. 445). Re o ms unde Kh ushche and he ea ly B ezhne e a made his plausible. In he las 20 yea s, howe e , bou geois sys ems ha e shown much mo e capaci y o adap ce ain socialis poli ical ins umen s (wel a e T ansi ion o Democ acy -o AnschluB? policies, adical democ a iza ion, cohe en planning), whe eas socialis coun- ies pe i ied and p o ed unable o adop he achie emen s o wes e n demo- c acy (legal s a e, plu alism, ma ke o ces). Only Go bache was able o o ganize such a de elopmen o m abo e. A - e 5 yea s o hal -hea ed nieasu es he ca ied ou he decision o enounce he leading ole o he pa y ,and o acknowledge a de ac o mul ipa y sys em which exis s al eady in some: epublics. Go bache da ed he loss o he lead o socialis ideology abou 1973 when he oi1 c isis imposed adical changes in capi alis coun ies whe eas socialis coun ies s ill exe cized he men ali y o ideological sel - ingh enousness. The GDR in he p opaganda was mo e ag essi e and less capable o lea ning han mos o he o he egimes because o i s shaky legi imacy in a di ided na ion. E e y nigh he class enemy came o he li ing ooms o millions o GDR ci izens, in luences which he o ical p opaganda ied o coun e balance. This nega i e compe i ion made he sys- em s ill mo e uncapable o adap ing o new needs. 2) A second hypo hesis is ha au ho i a ian egimes collapse when hey loose legi imacy. Mode n democ acy sys em a e legi imized mainly by ou p inciples which hey de eloped in a a he uni o m his o ical sequence: - legal s a e - na ional s a e - democ a ic s a e - wel a e s a e. a) The legal s a e was he only ins i u ion excep o he na ional s a e which was de eloped in mos o he Eas Eu opean coun ies which ne e ex- pe ienced ull democ acy. The e i o y o he GDR was pa o a Ge man a- di ion o pay o demands o democ acy wi h he minimal equi emen s o he legal s a e (Rech ss aa ), which s ill explains he legalism o he Ge man poli- ical cul u e. Ca e 's campaign o emphasizing human igh s was conside ed by many ac o s -e en in he Wes -- as a kind o in e e ence. Bu he p ocess o he Helsinki con e ence which was conside ed in he i s yea s a ic o y o So ie diplomacy became an ideological boome ang. Inc easingly he So ie Union was accused o iola ing hu nan igh s, inc easingly opposi ions claimed hese igh s. Especially in Eas Ge many he iola ion o hese igh s was so isible because o he mons osi y o he wall. Though he GDR was milde in i s e- p ession han many o he coun ies om Czechoslo akia down o Romania, he iola ion o igh s was mo e se e ely el because o pe manen compa i- sons wi h he Wes e n pa o Ge many. ccPape s)): Re is a de Sociologia 6) The na ional s a e p inciple was iola ed in wo espec s: many socialis coun ies had losses o e i o y o he So ie Union (in he Hunga ian case o o he neighbou s bu because o So ie in e e ence). The B ezhne doc- ine o limi edso e eign y, se e al imes democs a ed ia a med in e en ions o he ed a my (GDR 1953, Hunga y 1956, CSSR 1968) eminded he com- munis coun ies e e y day o he limi s o na ional s a ehood unde socialis condi ions. The GDR was a special case o na ional unde legi ima ion. Kissinge i o- nically has called he Fede al Republic an economy in sea ch o highe pu - pose. Fo he GDR he bonmo could be e e sed: he GDR had a high ideo- logical goa1 bu was an unde de eloped economy (compa ed o Wes Ge many, and i s o me s anda ds). The Fede al Republic clung o he idea o na ional uni y unde he no ion o a cul u al na ion. The class na ion which he GDR had launched in o he in e na ional deba e, con ained ei ca ions o he objec i is dejni ion, whe eas he Wes e n no ion o a na ion would a - he aim a he subjec i e side o an e eyday-plebisci e. The Wes Ge man economy ccin sea ch o a highe goal)) con inued o speak o he whole o Ge many. Some imes wi h g o esque consequences. Al eady he name o he Ge man s a e -li e ally ansla ed ((Fede al Republic Ge - many)) does no make sense in mos o he languages. This may ha e a la e e- wa d: he mos likely na ne o a uni ied Ge many DEUTSCHE BUNDES- REPUBLIK makes a di e ence only in Ge man many o he na ions can keep he name hey ha e used so a o he Wes e n pa o he coun y. The la en acism ha he Fede al Republic conside ed e e ybody o Ge man ongue as a Wes Ge man ci izen, e en in hose pa s o he o me Empi e which we e conside ed as being los o good is back i ing. This b ough he Bonn egime in o se ious di icul ies. When Go bache made possible he exodus o hun- d ed housands o Ge man speaking So ie ci izens and encou aged his allies in Poland and elsewhe e o do he same, he in lux was ha dly ole able. Social un es in he Fede al Republic and he ise o he new igh -wing ex emis s we e a consequence. Bonn ca ne close o he la en desi e o ebuild he wall om he o he side, bu i was p isone o i s ownpan-ge man cons i u ional my hology. No o eigne and ha dly any Ge man unde s ood ha he Ka ls uhe Cons i- u ional Cou uled in he case o he basic ag eemen wi h he GDR, in 1973 (BVe GE 36, 1/26) ecognizing a second Ge man s a e, ha he bo de - hough being he mos impe meable building since he Chinese wall and ce ainly less pe meable han e en he limes he Romans buil in B i ain and Ge many- was said o ha e a legal quali y no di e en om he bounda ies be ween Wes Ge man Laende . All his would ha e been poli ical my hology wi hou impo ance had no he majo i y o he Eas Ge mans used Wes Ge many as a e e ence cul u e. T ansi ion o De noc acy -o Anschlu 3? Mos o he p ominen Eas Ge man li e a u e -which was, maybe he mos unique and au onomous p alduc o he GDR in he las 40 yea s- was p in- ed in he Fede al Republic. One o he majo ad an ages o uni ica ion o Ge man li e a u e will be ha i looses on bo h sides o he o me i on cu - ain i s excessi e p eoccupa ion wi h la que elle allemande and i s human di- mension. I one eads Boll, ~G ass, Johnson o Walse o men ion only some o he au ho s also known alb oad, i becomes ob ious ha pos wa Ge man li e a u e p o incialized in a way simila o he cap i e na ions o Eas e n Eu- ope in he 19 h cen u y. The e was a p edominance o wo opics: lo e hey had and he na ion hey had no . I expec ha Ge man cul u e will e u n o i s o me cosmopoli ism in he adi ion o Goe he, Heine o Thomas Mann and his would be a welcome byp oduc o he uni ica ion p ocess. A na ion like o he s has no longe o e lec i s p eca ious si ua ion. No only he wo Ge man cul u es emainded closely ela ed. Chu ches, ade unions and many o he social ins i u ions we e kep apa by o ce, bu p ese ed hei o ganiza ional simila i y. The GDR did no de elop a na ional consciousness o he own --in spi e o so much p opaganda abou he class na ion. The Wes Ge mans in hei majo i y had an iden i y eeling o hei own, and he younge gene a ion showed li le in e es in he Eas . Bu he public opinion polls we e equen ly misin e p e ed. Wes Ge man was -a - e Belgium, a bi-e hnic na ion- he lowes low-sco e on all he scales o na- ional p ide. Un i1 he la e 1980s abou wo hi ds o he Wes Ge mans hough ha euni ica ion was impossible. Bu also wo hi ds we e in a ou o na ional uni y i i p o ed o be possible in he u u e ( on Beyme, 1986). In he ligh o hese pa adoxes hose who a e a aid o a new Ge man na io- nalism ge some com o . The Ge mans ha e no changed hei opinion e y much: E en now, in wa e oi en husiasm only wo hi ds o he Ge mans a e i mly in a ou o euni ica ion. c) A democ a ic s a e was he mos impo an aim which igge ed he pe- ace ul e olu ion o 1989. H[ow was i possible ha Eas Ge many led he i- nal s age o he p ocess in he Eas e n bloc? One explana ion is ha he chu ch unc ioned as a aining g ound o peace ul esis ence. The Lu he an chu ch has an old e a is adi ion a id unlike Cal inis denomina ions ha dly any e- olu iona y adi ions. The chu ch ained people o peace ul esis ence, bu no o e olu ion. The SED es ablishmen s,ho ly a e he u moil blamed Wes Ge man in- e ee ence o he e olu ion. This was ha dly ue in e ms o di ec suppo o m he Bonn go e nmen . In e e ence occu ed in an indi ec way, ia TV. Wes e n TVin he days o uphea al had a mobilizing inc ion. The people was in o med abou he numbe o demons a o s las nigh and go news whe e ((Pape s)): Re is a de Sociologia and when he nex ally was o ake place. This een o cemen encou aged he people in a coun y wi hou e olu iona y adi ion. Look a he his o y o Wes Eu opean democ acies such as B i ain, F ance o I aly. Shakespea ean d amas o killing kings e e ywhe e. In he Ge man Empi e one ha dly inds a case e en in he middle ages. Ge mans needed encou agemen o de ian poli ical beha iou . E en in he Wes , Ge mans a e no mal in many espec s o pa icipa ion, bu s ill show sligh ly less ole ance owa ds uncon en ional beha iou . The egula ion o language in he GDR in u moil shows how li le inde- penden e olu iona y hinking was in ol ed. The new e en s and ins i u ions we e called wi h Wes Ge man names. The e olu ion was a Wende- he ex- p ession o he change in go e nmen o 1982. When he S dsiwas abolished some hing was o subs i u e i . They ound no o he wo d han he Wes Ge - man Ve a~sun~sschu z. Compa ed o he So ie Union he e olu ion is pla- yed down. Go bache , howe e , emphasizes he e olu ion o pe es oika in o de o demons a e con inui y wi h Lenin's impe us a e 1917. I does no p e en he pe es oika leade s om accep ing wha a PCI-leade , Se gio Se- g e, ecen ly ad ised o all communis s: ((All o us should inally become e- isionis s)) (Die Zei , 29. Dec. 1989, p. 2, col. 5). The e en s o Leipzig a e called a e olu ion some imes by i s ad e sa ies. Jü gen Kuczynski, he nes o o SED loyalis s in he social sciences, dubbed i a conse a i e e olu ion. He quo ed Mam, bu he mo e amilia conno a ion is a quasi- ascis adi ion o hough in he Weima Republic (ibidem, p. 1, col. 3). The b eakdown o he au ho i a ian egimes in Sou he n Eu ope acco - ding o Schmi e (1986, Vol. 1, p. 5) was acili a ed by he subse ian ole o he mili a y wi h he excep ion o G eece. This a gumen has explana o y alue also in he case o Eas Eu ope. Subo dina ion o he mili a y was a dou- ble one: wo he na ional communis pa y and he Red A my wi hin i s bloc. The B ezhne doc ine, oddly enough, unde mined socialism hough i was mean o p o ec i . The mili a y o mos socialis s a es was used o ely on he leading ole o he Red A my. Once Moscow made i clea ha hey would no in e e e, de ense collapsed e y quickly. I is no by chance ha Romania is he only de ian case. Romania has emphasized i s ole indepen- den on Moscow o 20 yea s and did no ake pa in he supp ession o he P ague sp ing. Romania he e o e elied on he own in e nal secu i y sys em. Ceausescus main mis ake was, howe e , ha he c ea ed a coun e -a my in he Secu i a e. This compe i ion o wo a mies encou aged la ge pa s o he mi- li a y o join he opposi ion in a c i ica1 momen o he ebellion. Democ a ic adi ions had olde oo s in he GDR han in o he socialis coun ies. Czechoslo akia had been conside ed mo e democ a ic han Ge - many be o e he Second Wo ld Wa , bu i is di icul o compa e. Czechos- T ansi ion o Democ acy -o AnschluB? lo akia was one o he main winne s a he peace ea ies in he subu bs o Pa- is, whe eas c(Ve sai1lesn was conside ed as bla an injus ice in Ge many which did no s eng hen he new sys em o he ic o s, e.g. democ acy. Bu e en wi hou any democ a ic adi ion he Eas Ge mans would ha e seen how well he o he Ge many a ed wi h democ acy. Wes e n p opaganda emphasized ha ma ke economy and ue democ acy a e closely in e ela ed, and since mos GDR ci izens p e e ed he o me hey we e also eady o buy he la e . Democ acy as he o m o go e nmen o he mo e succeeding pa o he coun y had mo e legi imaq e en in Eas Ge many han he socialis demo- c acy as a disguise o pa y dic a o ship. d) The wel d e s a e was he ou h concep o legi imize mode n poli ical sys ems when social con lic s agg a a ed in he 20 h cen u y. Socialis sys ems commi ed he e o o p e end ha he ensh ine pe se a social s a e and he- e o e do no need a social policy. F om his ule he GDR was, howe e , again a ce ain excep ion. I i 1965 Ulb ich 's daugh e w o e he i s book de ending social policy. The wo Ge man s a es al eady in he Adenaue e a beha ed like communica ing ubes. Adenaue ied o compensa e na ional legi ima ion o his ump s a le by p omo ing wel a e in o de o immunize he Wes Ge mans agains comn~unism. The o he side had o ac in he same di- ec ion in o de o p o e ha socialism is supe io and o p e en ha he mass exodus con inues which weakened he GDR un i1 he cons uc ion o he Be lin wall in 196 1. This was p obably he mos solid pa o he legi imacy o he GDR. Un i1 ecen ly many GDR ci izens belie ed ha he GDR had be e achie emen s in he social sphe e hough hey knew ha he economy o he Wes was su- pe io . 3) The hi d eason o he b eakdown o dic a o ship is dissen among he eli es in a ime o e oding ideological zeal. This e osion was no as s ong as in F anco Spain ( on Beyme, 1971, pp. 123 .). Bu in a momen o c isis i wo ked in he same di ec ion~. Pa s o he middle le el cad es o he pa y and some Lo d Mayo s o big ci ies such as Leipzig and D esden, we e no longe willing o use o ce agains n~ass demons a ions. Some poli icians like Hans Mod ow (who beca ne p ime minis e ) o Be gho e (who s ayed Lo d Mayo o D esden in spi e o lea i ig he pa y) we e able o win he con idence as indi idual poli icians, no ia he pa y. The i s suspended his pa y mem- be ship, he second ga e i u~p al oge he . The pa y as a whole missed i s chance o e o m i sel . In Czechoslo akia e en he old DuEek c ew had li le chance o play a majo ole. By sena o ial cou eoisy o P esiden Ha el DubEek was gi en he hono a y bu no e y ccPape s)): Re is a de Sociologia diculized in he in e na ional heo y o s a e o being no s a e a all (Bodin) o a s a e ccmons o similen (Pu endo ). The o chbea e s o a aison dk a school o hough om Machia elli o Boccalini looked a he Ge mans a he wi h pi y: pe y li le communi ies wi h nice indus ious people, o una ely so equen ly d unk ha nobody was able o y o abolish his neighbou 's e- edom. Su ely his idyllic Ge many is no imminen in he 21 h cen u y. Bu he isks o an economic gian emaining poli ically and in mili a y ma e s a dwa ha e o be conside ed. When he mos eminen schola in Ge man his o y in he Uni ed S a es, Go don C aig, was honou ed a his 70 h bi hday, he p esiden o S an o d Uni e si y p aised him as a man who made sense o Ge man his o y hough e e ybody ag ees ha Ge man his o y does no make sense. The e a e, howe- e , mo e expe s who ecognize ha he onesided iew om ccLu he o Hi le )) (and hope ully his will apply also o Russia wi h simila simpli ica- ions such as cc om Bakunin o Lenin))) is no good guidance o se ling se- cu i y p oblems in Eu ope. C aigs op ion in Decembe 1989 o Ge many was s ill a ccbig No)) and a ccsmall Ayz o uni ica ion (Zu g og u Eu opa? 1989, p. 183). The main p oblem o expe s on Ge many is, howe e , ha Ge many has 20 million mo e inhabi an s han he o he bigge na ions, hough he Ge - mans on bo h sides o he o me i on cu ain did hei bes by he lowes bi h a es in he whole wo ld o sh ink back o a size which en i les hem o one na ional s a e. They ied o undo he consequences o accele a ed g ow h which caused Ge many o o e ake F ance in popula ion igu es in he 19 h cen u y. In he ligh o coming social p oblems i is likely ha he Ge mans will make u he e o s in he same di ec ion. Bu do hey ha e o wai un i1 a na ion la ge in size, such as Russia can be accep ed as pa o he Eu opean communi y? They would ha e o wai s ill qui e a ime. The loose alk abou he ((Eu opean hous&) may apply o economic and mili a y ques ions, bu e en Go bache aces eali y ha Eu ope in close in eg a ion o qui e a ime will no mean cc iom Lisbon o Vladi os ob, and no e en De Gaulle's old ision c ( iom he A lan ic o he U ab, bu c ( iom B es o B esa! e) Time ables o Eu opean unzjca ion a e in dange and cause a ade o be ween Wes Eu opean in eg a ion and Ge man uni ica ion. In o de o p e- en Bonn om blocking he Eu opean in eg a ion concessions o Ge man wishes in hei na ional eelings had o be made. Mi e and in one s a emen hin ed o his p edicamen . Blamed o ha ing made oo many concessions o Kohl he said: (calo s Monsieu Kohl es un pa io e)). This was said wi h an unde one ha Kohl as a pe sonali y o he i s ime became plausible o his F ench pa ne . Pa io ism is an accep able wo d o F ench ea s. T ansi ion o Democ acy -o AnschluB? The discussion o he easons Eu opean eli es had o changing hei mind on he Ge man ques ion makes i unlikely ha he e o-solu ion will be pu - sued unless Go bache is oppled by a coup. The p ospec s o his wo s case scena io o una ely a e dim, since Go bache in Feb ua y 1990 di e si ied his poli ical suppo by enouncing he leading posi ion o he pa y and ushe ing in o a mul i-pa y sys em. A kind o Gaullis semi-p esiden ialsys em migh be he solu ion o a p esiden who does no wan o disband he Communis pa y al oge he as Hunga y and Poland o he GDR, no wan s o be depen- den exclusi ely on he pa y majo i y. When Ga il Popo led he demons- a ion on he ed squa e in Feb ua y 1990 mos o he speeches and he shou- ing o he masses amoun ed o ((Down he whole Cen al Commi ee -bu Go bache can s ay)). I Go bache lis ened ca e ully he will ha e disco e ed he ad an ages o his mixed solu ion o his own in en ions. In a simila pa adox Go bache seems o ha e disco e ed ce ain ad an ages in Ge man uni ica ion. I will ce ainly be his scena io o he negocia ions o come o e i e he ccspi i Rlapallo) wi hou aliena ing he Wes e n powe s. 2) Neu ali y o a uni iecl Ge man s a e was Go bache 's i s choice. Bu quickly Wes e n obse e s disco e ed ha he So ie policies in his espec we e no simply a con inua ion o S alin's ini ia i es o 1952 . The cccommon house in Eu opes and he So ie sea ch o a secu i y sys em o e a ching he o me wo blocs we e se ious. Tha is why neu ali y -opposed by all Wes- e n and Eas e n neighbou s o Ge many o good easons (a e all he Wei- ma Reichsweh was ((neu al)) and coope a ed wi h he Red A my)- was no goal pe se o Go bache 's Ge man policy. Neu ali y mee s wi h opposi ion in Ge many. I was unaccep ed by he Ch is ian Democ a s. The Siocial Democ a s in Ge many paid lip se ice o he NATO bu in a ecen pape hey saw neu ali y o Ge many as a ((goa/ in he long un)). Only he G een pa y was i mly in a ou o neu ali y -and his a oused new suspicions by he es o he ac o s in and ou side he coun y. Fo he ime being neu ali y is he leas likely de elopmen . 3) Ge many emains in he Wes e n sys em bu comp omises a e ound o So ie secu i y in e es s. When Kohl came back om Moscow he celeb a ed himsel as ha ing go a ee hand o uni ica ion. Wha a e he condi ions? asked e e y jou nalis in he in e iews. No condi ion was he answe . Bu he e we e hin s o wo main bodies o be consul ed who migh some up wi h condi ions: - he ou ic o s o e Nazi Ge man, - and he Helsinki successioln con e ence o be held by all 1990. ccpape s*: Re is a de Sociologia Gensche p omo ed he o mula 2 ( he Ge man s a es) plus 4 ( he ic o s): bu wi hou ae ic is -e.g. ga he ing on Ge man ini ia i e and on Ge man e i o y. The main minimal expec a ion will be ha Ge many solemnly de- cla es ha he bo de s o 1945 a e sac osanc . This was p omised o he mo- men a e he GDR elec ions p oducing a legi imized go e nmen anyway. The bo de ques ion is la gely o e a ed in i s impo ance. I will be ha d o ask he necessa y ma e ial sac i ices om he Wes Ge man popula ion. Bu ha dly anybody (expec a ew e ugee o ganiza ions) ha e an in e es Eas o he Ode -Neisse. These a eas ha e always played a mino ole. Qui e a ew p ejudices con inued o despise hem as ccunde de eloped)) and no cccomple- ely)) Ge man. (Bo n in Silesia he p esen au ho can da e o men ion wha ha dly any Wes Ge man would say in public). In he cul u al sphe e he loss o B eslau and Konigsbe g ce ainly weighs less han he loss o Wilno and L o in Polish cul u e. The a eas ha e been popula ed and ebuil by Poles. Which Ge man would claim o be in a ou o pushing he mul icul u al so- cie y in he di ec ion o s a wi h in eg a ing millions o Poles. The Polish p oblem will be a s ain on Ge man budge s and a ese e o Ge man exploi- a ion anyway. You can push Ge many as a o he Wes as possible - he Poles ollow wes bound as a huge a my o mig an wo ke s and his endency will g ow as soon as hey bo de di ec ly wi h an es ablished ha d-cu ency coun y. Mo eo e no se ious poli ician can ask he es au a ion o he Polish co ido which by i s e y oddi y as a solu ion migh ha e p o oked a wa e en in a case ha no a Hi le was a ailable o push he issue. Oddly enough, he main ic o , S alin, c ea ed a new co ido . I Li houania in he long un b eaks away om he So ie Union. Go bache inhe i s he co ido which sepa a es a Russian speaking pa o o me Eas P ussian om he Sla ic e- i o y. Konigsbe g's li le e enge o e Kalining ad! Fo he ime being he e is only one p oblem wi h Poland Ge many can- no se le. As a consequence o he mos unequal ea men o he ccgues ic- o s)) -F ance on De Gaulle's impe inan insis ance go in- he Poles ha- ing su e ed much mo e han F ance we e kep ou -now, hey a e again excluded om he o mula 2 plus 4. Some ac o s migh be eady o gi e in -bu hey a e a aid ha e e y coun y in ol ed would ask o be p esen and he ic o s end up wi h a con e ence e en bigge han he Helsinki succession mee ing. The Uni ed S a es assu ed Go bache ha hey would no onesidedly y o bene i om So ie dilemmas a his momen . The new p oposal o educe he oops o abou 195 O00 gi es he Uni ed S a es an ad an age. They be- ne i al eady mo eo e , qui e subs an ially by ge ing he So ie o abandon he co ne s one o he So ie sys em, he GDR. The claim o keep Ge many in he Na o is close o uncondi ional su ende policies. Bake in Feb ua y T ansi ion o Democ acy -o Anschlug? 1990 launched a new p oposa1 o keep Ge many in he NATO only as apo- li ical membe . In mili a y ma e s e en in he F ench solu ion is ha dly accep- able o Moscow. Un o una ely ecen io s in he So ie Union p e en ed he leade ship om o e ing a clea policy s andpoin . I is ouching o see how quickly he o me ccnje - o eign policyn ans o med i sel in o he con- using pic u e o con adic ing ac o s. In he mo ning She a dnadze said only neu ali y is a solu ion, in he e ening Go bache hin ed a mo e lexible op- ions! Unp o essional dile an ism and ccad-hocism)) o So ie policies in his momen a e a ce ain dange in domes ic as well as in o eign policies. Gensche 's comp omise o membe ship in he NATO, bu no Wes e n oup in Eas Ge many, is hi:ghly a i icial. So ie oups can s ay in Eas Ge - many. I hink only o in i e ce ain pa s also in o Wes Ge man e i o y would be a subs an ial o e om he Wes e n side. Wha e e solu ion will be he ou come, i is unlikely ha he ou ic o s will ollow Ma ga e Tha che 's sel -de ea ing concep ha all he Helsinki- s a es ha e o ag ee o a solu ion, and ha e en li le Mal a should ha e a igh o e o. The Helsinkig oup should ha e no a nega i e inc ion o e o bu a he he posi i e inc ion o c ea e new ins i u ions o a Eu opean secu i y sys em. The Wes Eu opean coun ies we e puzzled by he accele a ion o Ge man uni ica ion which happened o wo easons: - The exodus o he GDRp~puh ion did no s op: uni ica ion seems o be he only solu ion o p e en he GDR om bleeding ou . - The in e na ionalsi ua ion did no exclude he a emp o oll bah he de- elopmen by Moscow policy planne s. OddIy enough he Communi y s a ed o push he apid Anschlu lsolu- ion ia A . 23 o he Basic Law in o de o a oid he necessi y o changes in he ea y o Rome. We should be awa e o he ac ha a simila accele a ion is ope a ing among he o he Comecon coun ies. A he end o 1989 i was s ill easable o en isage a loose con ede a ion wi h newcome s such as Aus ia, he EFTA coun ies and he o me Comecon s a es. By sp ing 1990 i became e iden ha he Communi y should no disc imina e Aus ia which ound i s applica ion in a condi ion wo se han he o me Moscow sa elli es, and ha he Comecon coun ies accep ed no solu ion wi hou p ospec s o ull membe ship a he ea lies con enience. Wes e n Eu ope is no comple ely p epa ed o cope wi h he exigencies o his new momen um o Eu opean in eg a ion om B es o B es -as Ge many has no ye any c~on incing plan o handling uni ica ion and i s ((Pape s)): Re is a de Sociologia eno mous mone a y cos s bu bo h Eu ope and Ge many a e o ced o muddle h ough. Economic in eg a ion will be mo e cos ly by his undue has e: bu poli ical in eg a ion o Eu ope especially he o ma ion o a common o eign policy, con a y o many ea s will ge easie by his g ea ((sal o mo ale in eg a i a)) in a pe iod o diminishing Eas Wes ensions. LITERATURE Beyme, Klaus on (1 982), Economics and Poli ics wi hin Socialis Sys ems. A Compa- a iue and Deuelopmen alApp oach, New Yo k, P aege (Ge man in 1975), Beyme, Klaus on (1986), ((Na ional Consciousness and ,Na ionalism: The Case o he Two Ge manies)). Canadian Reuiew o S udies in Na ionalism, No. 2, pp. 227-248. Beyme, Klaus on (1 971), Vom Faschismus zu En wicklungsdik a u . Mach eli e und Opposi ion in Spanien, Miinchen, Pipe . C aig, A. Go don. aZu g og u Eu opa? De ame ikanische His o ike Go don A. C aig iibe ein wiede e einig es Deu schlandn, De Spiegel4611989, pp. 183- 187. ((Ende des Kommunismus -und was nun? Zei -Symposium)), Die Zei , 29 Dec, 1989, pp. 1-14. P zewo ski, Adam (1986), ((Some P oblems in he S udy o he T ansi ion o Demo- c acy)) in Guille mo O'Donnell e al. (eds.), T ansi ionsJ om Au ho i a ian Rule, Bal imo e, Johns Hopkins, ol 3, pp. 337-363.