The ole o ins i u ional quali y
in hein e na ional ade o aLa in Ame ican
coun y: e idence omColombian expo
pe o mance
Ca los Ab eo* , Rica do Bus illo and Ca los Rod iguez
1 In oduc ion
In ecen yea s, ele an esea ch has explo ed he e ec o ins i u ional a iables,
which ha e ecei ed a g ea deal o a en ion (Ande son and Ma couille 2002; Dolla
and K aay 2004; Le chenko 2007; Egge e al. 2011; Egge and Nigai 2015; Ál a ez e al.
2018), and i is widely unde s ood ha highe ins i u ional quali y and a be e a mos-
phe e o go e nance educe business cos s and p omo e an e icien business en i on-
men , which can imp o e bila e al ade low be ween na ions (Wu e al. 2012).
Colombia, as one o he coun ies expe iencing one o he highes economic g ow h
a es in La in Ame ica o e he pas decades, has de eloped a dynamic policy o ade
openness in o de o p omo e i s economic de elopmen h ough he p omo ion o i s
Abs ac
This pape analyses he ele ance o Colombian ins i u ional quali y in ecen yea s in
e ms o he pe o mance o i s expo s wi hin a amewo k o ade openness. Based
on he ade g a i y model, we examine he e ec o go e nance on he e olu ion
o Colombian expo s h ough an econome ic app oach ha iden i ies, on he one
hand, he in luence o ins i u ional quali y, and on he o he hand, he in luence o he
ins i u ional dis ance be ween Colombia and i s ading pa ne s. We use a panel da a
se o 2005–2018, h ough which he expo lows om Colombia o 136 o i s ading
pa ne s a e conside ed. The indings indica e ha Colombian ins i u ional quali y and
he ins i u ional dis ance be ween he coun y and i s pa ne s a e s a is ically signi i-
can and a ec i s o eign sales. Simila ly, he e is a p ominen in luence o egula o y
quali y and he ule o law a iables in he pe o mance o Colombian expo s in ela-
ion o o he a iables included in he model. We conclude ha he Colombian go e n-
men mus imp o e i s ins i u ional quali y conside ably as a undamen al s ep owa ds
boos ing i s o e seas sales, no leas because he coun y’s ins i u ional dis ance om
he wo ld a e age is no able, which also a ec s i s expo s.
Keywo ds: Ins i u ional quali y, F ee ade ag eemen s, T ade, Expo s, T ade balance,
T ade g a i y model
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RESEARCH
Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
h ps://doi.o g/10.1186/s40008-021-00253-5
*Co espondence:
[email p o ec ed]
Uni e si y o he Basque
Coun y, Lehendaka i Agui e,
83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
expo s. None heless, al hough he ade openness policy has been de ined by di e en
s udies as a success ul policy o imp o e bila e al ade, his has been widely ques ioned
in Colombia. The na ion’s ade balance, which has his o ically been in de ici , has deep-
ened u he in ecen yea s, p esen ing one o he la ges imbalances in La in Ame ica
a e only Mexico and A gen ina (ECLAC 2020). Based on his nega i e end es ab-
lished wi hin a con ex o complex socioeconomic ac o s, such as high a es o in o mal-
i y, g ea e concen a ion o weal h, con o e sial elec o al p ocesses, d ug a icking
and in e nal a med con lic , among o he s ela ed o go e nance, his s udy a emp s
o e alua e he e ec o Colombian ins i u ional quali y on i s expo ade lows. The
esul s will allow us o simul aneously in e he ex en o which he quali y o Colombian
go e nance a ec s i s expo s, and o p esen he indings o a s udy ha could be ep-
lica ed in simila La in Ame ican coun ies. Consequen ly, he indings o he s udy will
allow us o o e some policy sugges ions o add ess o e coming he de iciencies ela ed
o go e nance in Colombia.
This pape con ibu es o p e ious esea ch in o he in luence o go e nance on in e -
na ional ade, wi h a ocus on eme ging economies ha ha e ollowed he pa h o ade
libe alisa ion p omo ed by de eloped economies. This s udy is he i s o add ess he
e ec o ins i u ional quali y on expo s om a coun y like Colombia, which has been
deeply a ec ed by a long in e nal a med con lic ha has a ec ed he nume ous e o s
made by na ional au ho i ies o e ecen decades o imp o e hei go e nance indi-
ces. We apply he ade g a i y model o a c oss-sec ional da ase o bila e al expo s
be ween Colombia and 136 coun ies om 2005 o 2018, be o e we hen use a g oup o
ins i u ional quali y indices elabo a ed by he Wo ld Bank (WB) o es he in luence on
Colombian expo s, i s ly, om he ins i u ions, and, secondly, om he ins i u ional
dis ance be ween Colombia and i s ading pa ne s. Fu he mo e, we include a iables
based on he new ade heo y amewo k o assess he endogenous cha ac e is ics o
he expo ing coun y and he e ec o hem on ade lows. Finally, he econome ic
model is es ima ed by he Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) app oach (Sil a
and Teney o 2006), which is he mos sui able econome ic p ocedu e in he p esence o
a la ge numbe o ze os, po en ial endogenei y, and econome ic d awbacks.
This pape is o ganised as ollows. The i s pa desc ibes he in luence o ins i u ions
on in e na ional ade, as well as he pe o mance o Colombian expo s and he coun-
y’s ins i u ional quali y o e ecen decades. The second pa o his pape will p esen
he me hodological app oach, speci ica ion, and esea ch da a. Finally, i will o e i s
indings, ocussing on he discussion and cen al conclusions.
2 In luence o ins i u ions onin e na ional ade
The ole o ins i u ions in socie y has been widely analysed by leading au ho s. Fo
Schmolle (1900), ins i u ions a e habi s, ules o mo ali y, cus oms and laws ha ,
when ela ed o each o he , es ablish a sys em. Commons (1934) de ines ins i u ions
as collec i e ac s ha con ol indi idual ac s, sugges ing ha socie y is made up o
indi idual ins i u ions such as he s a e, he amily, he co po a ion, and he com-
me cial associa ion among o he s. Mo eo e , Hayek (1967) p oposes ha ins i u ions
a e ules ha conduc socie y, which can be di ided in o wo classes. The i s class
is called “o ganisa ion” and in ol es simple ules which do no e ol e, ha e de ined
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
objec i es, and ha e been delibe a ely c ea ed. The second class is “spon aneous
ules”: complex ules wi h no de ined objec i es which a e cons an ly e ol ing and
ha e been c ea ed in an unplanned o unconscious way. Fu he mo e, No h (1990)
di ides ins i u ions in o o mal cons ain s (such as ules, laws, and cons i u ions) and
in o mal cons ain s (such as s anda ds o beha iou , con en ions, and sel -imposed
codes o conduc ), claiming ha o mal ins i u ions can change apidly while in o -
mal ules canno . In pa icula , he in luence o ins i u ions on he economy has been
add essed by au ho s such as Acemoglu e al. (2005), who place ins i u ions as key o
economic success, di iding hem in o ex ac i e and inclusi e ca ego ies. Mo eo e ,
hey claim ha ex ac i e ins i u ions a ou he eli es and es ic long- e m g ow h
while inclusi e ins i u ions a e linked o poli ical democ acy and p omo e economic
g ow h. Finally, Cha ance (2008) suppo s he ela ionship be ween ins i u ional
quali y and economic g ow h, es ablishing ha good ins i u ions a e based on eco-
nomic eedom, ule o law, p i a e p ope y, lexible labou ma ke s, clea ly deline-
a ed p ope y igh s, and sha eholde -o ien ed co po a e go e nance.
Fu he mo e, he e ec s o highe ins i u ional quali y on in e na ional ade ha e
been highligh ed by ade li e a u e o e he las decades, suppo ing he idea ha
be e ins i u ions and go e nmen s will inc ease in e na ional ade low (Bilgin
e al. 2018). This hypo hesis is s ongly suppo ed by Ande son and Ma couille
(2002), who a gue ha bila e al ade is posi i ely a ec ed by he quali y o he ins i-
u ions in ol ed. In he same ein, Ál a ez e al. (2018) s a e ha ins i u ional qual-
i y inc eases bila e al ade and his e ec inc eases o e ime. Fu he mo e, Linde s
e al. (2005) conclude ha he quali y le els o ins i u ions in bo h he expo ing
and impo ing coun ies inc ease he olume o ade be ween hem. Likewise, Li
and Samsell (2009) ind ha coun ies wi h a epu a ion o s ong go e nance ha e
a highe ade olume han hose wi hou . This iew is suppo ed by Jalilian e al.
(2007), who poin ou ha ins i u ional de elopmen educes in o ma ion impe -
ec ions, inc eases economic incen i es, and educes ansac ion cos s. Simila ly,
Chowdhu y and Aud e sch (2014) s a e ha highe ins i u ional quali y and good
go e nance educe ade cos s and he isks o de aul ing while Yu e al. (2015) go
u he , claiming ha be e ins i u ions, bo h o mal and in o mal, ease ade. These
s a emen s ha e been p o en by esea che s who ound ha he le el o ins i u ional
quali y has a s a is ically signi ican posi i e in luence on ade (de G oo e al. 2005).
The e idence e iewed indica es a posi i e and ele an connec ion be weenins i u-
ions and ade.
The signi icance o he connec ion be ween ins i u ions and ade is e lec ed in exis -
ing esea ch ha a i ms how weak ins i u ions can es ic in e na ional ade wi h a
nega i e e ec simila o ha o a i s (Ál a ez e al. 2018; Ande son and Ma couille
2002). Mo eo e , poo ins i u ional quali y can obs uc ade and lead o poo pe o -
mance in manu ac u ed expo s (Méon and Sekka 2004). F ancois and Manchin (2013)
a i m ha he in luence o ins i u ions on ade is mos no able in low-income coun-
ies. This s a emen sugges s ha ca ying ou public e o ms o imp o e ins i u ional
quali y should be a c i ical ac o in go e nmen policy in o de o ob ain g ea e bila -
e al exchanges, pa icula ly in de eloping na ions. Howe e , Kau mann e al. (2011) ind
c ucial di e ences be ween he achie emen s in ins i u ional quali y wi hin de eloped
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
and eme ging economies, wi h he o me demons a ing mo e imp o emen s in
go e nance.
The ema kable ole o ins i u ional quali y in p omo ing ade, based as i is on s ong
and eliable ins i u ions in bo h expo ing and impo ing coun ies, is also explained by
he simila i y in he quali y o hei ins i u ions. In his ega d, Kos o a (1997) in o-
duces he concep o ins i u ional dis ance, de ined as he di e ence be ween he ins i-
u ional p o iles in he o iginal and hos coun ies. Since his idea was in oduced,
ins i u ional dis ance has gained impo ance in in e na ional ade s udies (Beugelsdijk
e al. 2018). Some esea che s who ha e analysed he di e ence in ins i u ional quali y
be ween na ions ha e ound ha mos bila e al ade akes place be ween economies
wi h high s anda ds o ins i u ional quali y, in pa icula when he di e ence be ween
hei indica o s is small (Ál a ez e al. 2018). The impo ance o he simila i y in ins i u-
ional quali y is also suppo ed by de G oo e al. (2005), who s a e ha coun ies wi h
simila quali y o go e nance ade mo e wi h each o he , showing ha highe di e -
ences in quali y o go e nance be ween expo ing and impo ing coun ies limi bila e al
ade low. Howe e , he e a e conce ns ega ding he igou du ing he cons uc ion o
he indica o and he subsequen compa abili y o i s esul s wi h simila esea ch (Bae
and Salomon 2010). None heless, Kos o a e al. (2019) poin ou ha he ichness o he
ins i u ional pe spec i e p o ides se e al oppo uni ies o analyse i s c oss-bo de in lu-
ence on nume ous s a egic and o ganisa ional ou comes.
Fu he mo e, he e is a g owing body o esea ch ha ecognises he impo ance o
indi idual ins i u ional a iables in he economic success o na ions. One o he mos
c i ical o hese a iables is he ule o law. As no ed by Gani and Sc imgeou (2016),
he ule o law is based on he in e ac ion be ween ci izens and ins i u ions, and he
s eng h o he law can be essen ial in p omo ing in es men and boos ing economic
pe o mance. This a iable is conside ed so no ewo hy ha some s udies measu e he
ins i u ional quali y o na ions di ec ly h ough i (Dolla and K aay 2004). I s impo -
ance is also ein o ced by Zeynalo (2017), who claims ha he ule o law is one o
he c i ical ac o s o imp o ing bila e al ade amongs na ions. Likewise, Ál a ez e al.
(2018) iden i y in hei empi ical esea ch ha he ule o law demons a es one o he
s onges connec ions wi h ade olumes. Finally, Gani and Sc imgeou (2016) poin
ou ha he de ence o he ule o law, e ec i e en o cemen o business and ade ag ee-
men s, absence o bu eauc acy, an imp o ed egula o y a mosphe e, and he eedom
o ci izens o exe cise hei poli ical and ci il igh s a e i al aspec s o p omo ing ade.
The isk o de aul o isk o no-paymen gene a es unce ain y in ade in eg a-
ion, and his isk is de ined h ough con ac en o cemen mechanisms. In he 1960s,
Olson (1996) add essed he issue and claimed ha unde eloped and ine icien ins i u-
ions, such as weak en o cemen mechanisms, could limi p oduc i e coope a ion and
he eby a ec ade. Simila ly, Ranjan and Lee (2007) demons a e ha impe ec ions
in he en o cemen o con ac s can educe he olume o ade in bo h di e en ia ed
and homogeneous goods. Nunn (2007) goes u he ega ding he signi icance o his
ac o in bila e al ade, claiming ha applica ion o he con ac has a g ea e e ec on
he in e na ional pa e n o ade han he coun y’s capi al endowmen s and skilled
labou combined. Howe e , al hough con en ional ade heo y s a es ha he endow-
men s o a coun y, i s le el o echnology and i s compe i i eness explain ade, Gani
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
and Sc imgeou (2016) claim ha poo go e nance can c ea e limi a ions o ade, mak-
ing he i al ole o good ins i u ions in economic p og ess ye mo e e iden .
Ano he majo ac o ha di ec ly a ec s bila e al ade lows is co up ion. On his
ma e , K uege (1974) poin s ou ha ade openness posi i ely a ec s compe i i e-
ness and consequen ly educes he e ec s o co up ion whe eas ade ba ie s c ea e
bu eauc acy in business p ocesses and, as a consequence, illegal bene i s. Addi ionally,
Ande son and Ma couille (2002) s a e ha co up ion and weak legal en o cemen o
con ac s inc ease he isks o ade wi h coun ies exhibi ing such weaknesses ha ming
ade low. Simila ly, Nunn (2007) inds ha he quali y le el o democ acy is posi i ely
linked o bila e al ade low, and his iew is suppo ed by Yu (2010), who a i ms ha a
highe le el o democ acy imp o es bila e al ade exchange. In hei s udy o he Asia–
Paci ic egion, Helble e al. (2009) analyse he in luence o ins i u ional anspa ency on
ade, inding ha g ea e anspa ency o he ade en i onmen h ough g ea e p e-
dic abili y and simpli ica ion o p ocedu es has a subs an ial impac on ade cos s.
To de e mine he e ec s o ins i u ional quali y on bila e al ade, some au ho s ha e
gone beyond he analysis o o mal ins i u ional ac o s. Li and Samsell (2009) claim ha
p e ious s udies o ins i u ional quali y mainly conside o mal ins i u ions and dis e-
ga d in o mal ones, such as he go e nance en i onmen . Acco ding o Yu e al. (2015),
us can mode a e he isk o de aul assumed by expo e s in an en i onmen o mal-
unc ion o o mal ins i u ions, and consequen ly imp o e economic esul s. This iew is
suppo ed by Guiso e al. (2009), who claim ha low le els o us can nega i ely a ec
bila e al ade. Fu he mo e, ins i u ional quali y can indi ec ly a ec bila e al ade due
o he discou agemen o o eign di ec in es men (FDI), aking in o accoun ha his
ac o is a de e minan o in e na ional ade (Mau o 1995). This s a emen sugges s
ha he expec ed posi i e e ec on ade h ough he a ac ion o FDI would no be
achie ed wi h weak go e nmen ins i u ions (Jude and Le ieuge 2017). Finally, Demi
and Hu (2016) also s a e ha ins i u ional di e ences can c ea e an en y ba ie o FDI,
consequen ly hampe ing ade.
3 Colombian expo pe o mance andins i u ional quali y
Since he ea ly 1990s, ollowing in e na ional ends, Colombia has de eloped a ade
policy ha p omo es i s in eg a ion wi h in e na ional ma ke s, seeking a posi i e
impac on i s economic g ow h. To do his, o me P esiden Césa Ga i ia T ujillo
passed an unp eceden ed se o e o ms in 1991 which aimed o encou age wha he
called an Ape u a Come cial p ocess. As no ed by Ga cía e al. (2014), Ga i ia’s aim
o opening up he economic sys em was o encou age a mo e p oduc i e and e icien
na ional economy. Howe e , o da e, he e is li le ag eemen on he comme cial success
o his p ocess due o he ew, ine icien measu es de eloped by di e en go e nmen s
o suppo and p omo e he compe i i eness and p oduc i i y o na ional companies in
a cons an ly changing economic scena io. Addi ionally, i is impo an o men ion ha
Colombia began o sign i s mos impo an bila e al ade ag eemen s om 2009. As
con i ma ion o his s a emen , Colombia s eng hened i s ade ela ions h ough FTAs
wi h he Eu opean F ee T ade Associa ion (EFTA) in 2009, Canada in 2011, he Uni ed
S a es (US) in 2012, he Eu opean Union (EU) in 2013 and, mo e ecen ly, wi h he coun-
ies o he Paci ic Alliance (PA) in 2015 and he Republic o Ko ea in 2016 (MinCIT
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
2019). In his sense, i is essen ial o cla i y ha he ade ag eemen s mos p ominen
in Colombia a e hose signed wi h he US and he EU, as hese ag eemen s ep esen ed
mo e han hal o Colombian ade be ween 2005 and 2018, despi e he ac hey ha e
con ibu ed o deepening he de ici in Colombia’s ade balance in ecen yea s (Min-
CIT 2018a).
Figu e1 shows he pe o mance o Colombian expo s by des ina ion a cons an
p ices (base yea = 2000) om 2005 o 2018.
The in o ma ion displayed in Fig.1 can be analysed in di e en ways. On he one hand,
i sugges s ha he US is he main des ina ion o Colombian expo s. The US hegemony
as he leading des ina ion o Colombian expo s has educed in ecen yea s, especially
a e he FTA be ween he pa ies came in o o ce. Simila ly, Colombian expo s o EU
membe s a es ha e expe ienced a no able educ ion a e he FTA be ween he pa ies
came in o e ec . Mo eo e , China has eme ged as one o he mos p ominen des ina-
ions o Colombian expo s.
I is impo an o no e ha Colombian expo s a e mainly composed o oil and mining
goods. Acco ding o MinCIT (2018b), his sec o con ibu ed 63.3% o na ional expo s,
g owing by 17.5% in 2018 on 2017. Mo e p ecisely, 59.1% o Colombia’s o al expo s in
2018 we e made up o oil and i s de i a i es, wi h ha sec o g owing by 6.5% compa ed
o 2017, e lec ing i s s a egic impo ance o he economy. In his ega d, Ka abulu
e al. (2020) examine he e ec o economic unce ain y on in e na ional commodi y
ade, highligh ing he nega i e e ec o ade wa s on he exchange o his ype o goods,
which ep esen s a se ious isk o Colombian commodi y expo s, gi en hei ele ance
in he cu en scena io o economic unce ain y. Fu he mo e, as no ed by Zeynalo
(2017), ola ili y in in e na ional oil p ices has ha med globalisa ion in oil-p oduc-
ing coun ies, which ha e gene ally used he e enues om his indus y ine ec i ely.
Mo eo e , Haddad e al. (2013) s a e ha di e si ica ion o expo s allows a coun y o
manage he isk gene a ed by he ola ili y ansmi ed by ade, he eby ob aining he
bene i s o openness. Colombia aces a signi ican challenge in his ega d. A educ ion
o i s high dependence on he oil indus y in e ms o expo s, and an imp o emen o i s
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122013 201420152016 20172018
Uni ed S a es Eu opean UnionChinaRes o he wo ld
Fig. 1 Colombian expo s by des ina ion in cons an millions o USD (base yea = 2000). Sou ce: Own
elabo a ion based on DANE (2020a). De la ed alues based on he Expo P ice Index om BanRep (2020)
Page 7 o 21
Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
ins i u ional quali y migh bo h d i e he di e si ica ion o expo s. Consequen ly, Moe-
nius and Be kowi z (2011) claim ha coun ies wi h lowe ins i u ional quali y ha ca y
ou ins i u ional e o ms can expe ience ad ances in he di e si y o hei expo s. In
iew o ha , mo e subs an ial and app op ia e e o s a e equi ed o ensu e he di e -
si ica ion o Colombian expo s and hus a oid an exchange c isis esul ing om a e y
p obable dep ecia ion o he Colombian peso due o he expec ed educ ion o i s oil
expo s in he coming yea s(P esidencia de la Republica de Colombia 2020). Rega ding
his p obable s a e o a ai s, Bahmani-Oskooee e al. (2019) ecognise he nega i e e ec
o he de alua ion o he local cu ency on Kazakhs an’s expo s, which, like Colombia, is
an economy highly dependen on oil sales. None heless, Bahmani-Oskooee e al. (2020),
in hei s udy on he e ec o he exchange a e on sec o al ade be ween a de elop-
ing coun y such as Pakis an and he US ound ha in a si ua ion o upee dep ecia ion,
he ade balances o some sec o s may bene i ( ege ables, esh o d ied; manu ac u ed
lea he ; and oo wea , among o he s), which shows ha he p obable dep ecia ion o he
Colombian peso could also ha e a posi i e in luence on ce ain sec o s, i he Colom-
bian economy and, e en ually, i s ade pa e ns, we e adequa ely di e si ied. The e o e,
i is essen ial o poin ou ha , on he one hand, he Colombian au ho i ies mus ocus
hei sho - e m economic policies on a oiding he dep ecia ion o he Colombian peso
and ha ming i s expo s, while on he o he hand, hey mus ocus hei long- e m poli-
cies on ensu ing adequa e di e si ica ion o hei ade pa e n in o de o a oid signi i-
can damage o he economy. Simila ly, and as s a ed by Gup a e al. (2019), Colombian
policymake s should also o e incen i es o expo e s (e.g., insu ance co e ages, low-
in e es a e loans, ax incen i es) o main ain in e na ional ade in imes o economic
unce ain y caused p incipally by geopoli ical isks.
Figu e2 shows he Colombian ade balance pe o mance a cons an p ices (base
yea = 2000) om 2005 o 2018.
Figu e2 e lec s he pe o mance o he Colombian balance o ade, which shows a
clea deepening o i s ade de ici . Al hough expo s show a sligh upwa d end in he
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011 2012 20132014 20152016 2017 2018
Expo s Impo s T ade balance
Fig. 2 Colombian ade balance in cons an millions o USD (base yea = 2000). Sou ce: own elabo a ion
based on DANE (2020b). De la ed alues based on he Expo P ice Index and Impo P ice Index om
BanRep (2020)
Page 8 o 21
Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
pe iod analysed, he upwa d end o impo s is much highe . This si ua ion has gene -
a ed an inc ease in he Colombian ade de ici . Du ing he pe iod analysed, deepened
wi h g ea e in ensi y om 2009 and eaching i s highes le el in 2018. Howe e , as men-
ioned abo e, he ade de ici has con inued since 2005, in ensi ying a e he signing
o a ious FTAs by he Colombian go e nmen as a key policy o ade in eg a ion in
global ma ke s. Rega ding impo s, DANE (2019) s a es ha he main supplie s expo -
ing o Colombia a e he US, China and he EU, espec i ely. I is impo an o no e ha
China wen om being a modes supplie o p oduc s o Colombia in 2005, o he sec-
ond la ges sou ce o Colombian impo s in 2018, pa ly o he de imen o impo s
om he US and he EU.
Fu he mo e, as no ed by se e al s udies, he e is a s ong ela ionship be ween expo
pe o mance and he ins i u ional quali y o na ions. Rega ding Colombia, he e ec s
o good go e nance on expo s emains unclea . Acco ding o F anz (2019), Colombia
accu a ely exempli ies he inadequacies o good go e nance in e ms o ins i u ions and
economic de elopmen , sugges ing ha Colombian ins i u ional quali y is no a ac o
ha encou ages na ional expo s.
In his ega d, his s udy aims o de e mine he ex en o which Colombian ins i u-
ional quali y in luences i s expo pe o mance. The ins i u ional quali y o he coun ies
in ol ed in he s udy a e based on igu es aken om he Wo ld Bank’s Global Go e n-
ance Indica o s (WGI) p epa ed by Kau mann e al. (2011) and is shown in Table1.
The six WGIs comp ise b oad dimensions o go e nance and allow us o de e mine
he speci ic e ec s o each indica o on Colombian expo s. Mo eo e , he WGIs a e
conside ed he mos de ailed and geog aphically comple e se o ins i u ional indices
cu en ly a ailable (Ál a ez e al. 2018).
Figu e3 illus a es Colombian go e nance indica o s compa ed o he a e age among
he O ganisa ion o Economic Co-ope a ion and De elopmen (OECD) coun ies, he
Andean Communi y (AC) coun ies and he whole wo ld om 2005 o 2018.
Figu e 3 illus a es he ema kable ins i u ional dis ance ac oss all he go e n-
ance indica o s be ween Colombia and he OECD coun ies be ween 2005 and 2018;
howe e , he ins i u ional dis ance is mo e no iceable in indica o s such as con ol
Table 1 De ini ion o Wo ld Bank go e nance indica o s (WGI). Sou ce: Kau mann e al. (2011)
Indica o De ini ion
Con ol o co up ion The ex en o which public powe is used o p i a e gain, coun ing on small and
la ge o ms o co up ion, as well as he managemen o he S a e by eli es and
p i a e in e es s
Go e nmen e ec i eness The quali y o public se ices, he capaci y o he public unc ion and i s independ-
ence om poli ical p essu es; and he quali y o policy o mula ion
Poli ical s abili y and
absence o iolence/ e -
o ism
The p obabili y ha he go e nmen will be damaged by uncons i u ional o iolen
a ai s, including e o ism
Regula o y quali y The go e nmen ’s abili y o p o ide s ong policies and egula ions ha enable and
p omo e he de elopmen o he p i a e sec o
Rule o law The ex en o which agen s us and accep he ules o socie y, including he qual-
i y o con ac en o cemen and p ope y igh s, he police, and he cou s, as well as
he p obabili y o c ime and iolence
Voice and accoun abili y The ex en o which ci izens pa icipa e in he selec ion o hei go e nmen , ee-
dom o exp ession, eedom o associa ion and eedom o he p ess
Page 9 o 21
Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
o co up ion, go e nmen e ec i eness, and ule o law. Rega ding he ins i u ional
dis ance be ween Colombia and he AC coun ies, he o me pe o ms be e ac oss
he majo i y o indica o s (con ol o co up ion, go e nmen e ec i eness, egula-
o y quali y, and ule o law). By con as , he AC coun ies demons a e a highe
le el o bo h poli ical s abili y and he absence o iolence and e o ism, as should
be expec ed ollowing he long pe iod o in e nal con lic ha Colombia has expe i-
enced. Howe e , i is essen ial o highligh he upwa d end in his indica o since
2012, when he go e nmen o he o me P esiden Juan Manuel San os and he
Fue zas A madas Re oluciona ias de Colombia (FARC) began o mal nego ia ions o
end he in e nal a med con lic ha has las ed mo e han 50yea s (Lopez e al. 2019).
Mo eo e , he Colombian index pe o mance e lec s a highe upwa d end in he
oice and accoun abili y indica o since 2013. Finally, Fig.3 also shows he e olu ion
o he global a e age ins i u ional indices, mos o which a e highe han he Colom-
bian indices (excep in egula o y quali y, and oice and accoun abili y, in which a
simila e olu ion is obse ed). This las compa ison allows us o in e ha he quali y
le el o Colombian go e nance is lowe s ill han he global a e age, which indica es,
on he one hand, a wide ma gin o ins i u ional imp o emen and, on he o he , he
poo ins i u ional quali y o he coun y.
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Con ol o co upon
OCDE a e age Colombia AC a e ageWo ld
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2005 20062007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Go e nmen e ec eness
OCDE a e ageColombia AC a e ageWo ld
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201320142015201620172018
Polical s abili y and absence o iolence and e o ism
OCDE a e age Colombia AC a e ageWo ld
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015201620172018
Regula o y quali y
OCDE a e ageColombia AC a e age Wo ld
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2005 2006 200720082009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201620172018
Rule o law
OCDE a e age Colombia AC a e ageWo ld
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520162017 2018
Voice and accoun abili y
OCDE a e ageColombia AC a e ageWo ld
Fig. 3 Colombian go e nance indica o s compa ed wi h OECD and AC coun ies, and he wo ld a e age.
Sou ce: The Wo ld Bank (2020)
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
go e nance indica o s in Colombia (expo ing coun y) and hose o he des ina ion
coun y, o compa e he ins i u ional quali ies o Colombia and i s pa ne s. The eg es-
sions show simila esul s in e ms o in luence on expo s and s a is ical signi icance as
hose shown in Table4 o a iables such as dis ance, con igui y, GDP and labou com-
pe i i eness, and membe ship o he WTO and OECD. Howe e , in his model, he com-
mon language a iable becomes s a is ically signi ican when he ins i u ional dis ance
a iables ea u e he same. Simila ly, in his model, he FTA a iable is no s a is ically
signi ican .
Rega ding ins i u ional dis ance a iables, Table5 shows ha he majo i y o hem a e
s a is ically signi ican (excep in he di e ence be ween poli ical s abili y and oice and
accoun abili y), and ha hei e ec on Colombian expo s is ad e se. As men ioned, a
nega i e esul in eg ession sugges s a es ic ion o expo s om Colombia o i s pa -
ne s due o he ins i u ional dis ance, and he nega i e e ec o ins i u ional dis ance on
Colombian expo s is in line wi h indica ions om Bilgin e al. (2018). They a i m ha a
g ea e di e ence be ween he quali y le els o he ins i u ions in o igin and des ina ion
coun ies nega i ely a ec s bila e al ade lows. The g ea es ad e se e ec is shown in
he dis ance be ween he e ec i eness o he go e nmen a iables, which sugges s ha
di e ences be ween he quali y o public se ices, capaci y o he public unc ion, and i s
independence om poli ical p essu es ound be ween Colombia and i s pa ne s nega-
i ely a ec he o me ’s expo s. None heless, he ad e se e ec o ins i u ional dis ance
on Colombian expo s is also exhibi ed in he con ol o co up ion, egula o y quali y,
and he ule o law a iables, albei o a lesse ex en .
6 Discussion
The esul s ob ained by he p oposed speci ica ions allow us o examine he in luence o
ins i u ional quali y (whe he we conside hem in le els o hei di e ences) on Colom-
bian expo s.
Rega ding he impac o go e nance indices in le els on Colombian expo s, he a i-
ables egula o y quali y and ule o law exhibi a g ea e in luence han he o he indices,
and his in luence has been ecognised by nume ous s udies. These a iables a e ela ed
o ma ke compe i ion and legal ce ain y, co espondingly, and ou esul s e eal ha
hei impac on he coun y’s expo s is ou s anding. These indings should encou age
he c ea ion o mo e e icien policies o imp o e pe o mance agains hose indices and
wha hey ep esen in e ms o go e nance as an e ec i e measu e o boos Colombian
expo s. In his ega d, ou esul s a e in line wi h hose e ealed by Soeng and Cuy e s
(2018), h ough which hey p o ide e idence ha Cambodia’s expo s a e posi i ely
in luenced by he same a iables we used in ou s udy. Thei s udy con i ms oo ha
he ule o law is he mos ele an ins i u ional a iable o p omo ing he g ow h o
Cambodia’s expo s. On he o he hand, he con ol o he co up ion a iable exhibi s
an ad e se e ec on expo s, which e lec s an ambiguous pe spec i e on he social oo s
o co up ion in he coun y and i s di e se and opposi e economic e ec s. This inding
could be he ini ial basis o an addi ional s udy o de e mine he easons o he nega-
i e e ec o he con ol o co up ion indica o on Colombian expo s, a inding which
con adic s ecen esea ch sugges ing con ol o co up ion has a posi i e e ec on he
olume o coun ies’ expo s.
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
The p ominen posi i e e ec , exposed in each eg ession, ha he labou compe i-
i eness a iable could ha e on Colombian expo s is suppo ed by he indings o Ál a-
ez e al. (2018), who main ain ha he labou p oduc i i y o he expo e , h ough
lowe ac o equi emen s and sala ies, boos s bila e al ade. Wi h his in mind, i is
essen ial o no e ha he p omo ion o policies ha enhance Colombian labou p oduc-
i i y could be a powe ul s a egy o imp o e i s expo s, and ou esul s con i m his
s a emen . Ne e heless, he OECD (2019) a i ms ha Colombian labou p oduc i -
i y is on he decline; business ax b eaks do li le o imp o e he coun y’s p oduc i i y;
and compa a i ely, Colombian labou p oduc i i y is one- hi d o ha achie ed by he
a e age OECD coun y, and e en lowe han he le el eached by some La in Ame ican
coun ies. These s a emen s sugges ha Colombian labou p oduc i i y may ha dly be
a ac o in p omo ing he sho - e m g ow h o expo s, and consequen ly, he educ-
ion o Colombia’s ade de ici . Mo eo e , ou indings show ha once an FTA comes
in o e ec be ween Colombia and i s pa ne s, i nega i ely a ec s Colombian expo s,
which ques ions he e ec i eness o he co e s a egy o he Colombian go e nmen o
p omo e i s expo s and e en ually balance i s ade de ici . The indings o he nega i e
in luence o he FTAs o e Colombian expo s wi h i s pa ne s di e om hose ound
by Ahca Olmos (2018) in his empi ical s udy on in e na ional ade be ween Colombia
and he EU, and hose es ablished by Cá denas and Ga cía (2005) in hei s udy on he
e ec on ade o he signing o he FTA be ween Colombia and he US.
Conce ning he ins i u ional dis ance and hei in luence on Colombian expo s, i can
be obse ed ha he di e ence be ween go e nances in Colombia and i s pa ne s nega-
i ely a ec s i s expo s, wi h mos o he a iables included. The esul s a e in line wi h
hose indings ha indica e coun ies wi h simila (o di e en ) s anda ds o go e nance
ade mo e (o less) wi h each o he (de G oo e al. 2005). Mo eo e , he indings o Liu
e al. (2020) ega ding he e ec s o ins i u ional dis ance on ade lows be ween China
and coun ies ollowing he Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI), exhibi inhibi ion o he bila -
e al ade lows, de i ing om unce ain y and ansac ion cos s ela ed o ins i u ional
dis ance. None heless, i is impo an o men ion ha a leas hal o Colombian expo s
go o coun ies whose go e nance indices a e gene ally highe ( he US, he EU, and e en
some Chinese go e nance indices) han i s own (see Fig.1), which o some ex en h ows
in o ques ion he common indings on ins i u ional dis ance and he nega i e e ec on
expo s when he dis ance is wide. Ne e heless, ou indings should conce n Colombian
policymake s seeking o imp o e he le el o ins i u ional quali y as a means o expand
na ional expo s wi h i s pa ne s, as he eg ession esul s sugges .
O e all, we can s a e ha ins i u ional quali y has a s ong in luence on Colombian
expo s, whe e he e ec s o he egula ion quali y and ule o law a iables s and ou
abo e he o he s. In he same ein, he ins i u ional dis ance be ween Colombia and i s
pa ne s ep esen s ano he ac o ha ha ms expo s. The e o e, he s eng hening o
ins i u ional quali y should be seen by he Colombian au ho i ies as a p ima y s a egy
o suppo he ade in eg a ion p ocess, ocused no only on he opening o new ma -
ke s h ough ade ag eemen s, bu also on measu es ha imp o e he economic, legal,
social, and poli ical en i onmen o business.
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Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
7 Conclusion
In his s udy, we ha e wo ked wi h a panel o he bila e al ade lows be ween Colombia
and 136 o i s pa ne s o de e mine he in luence o he coun y’s ins i u ional quali y
on i s expo s. To achie e his, we p oposed a g a i y model and conside ed concep s
om he new ade heo y. We included con ol a iables ela ed o economic size, geo-
g aphical dis ance, cul u al p oximi y, ade in eg a ion mechanisms, and labou com-
pe i i eness in o de o es ima e hei e ec s on Colombian expo s. In pa icula , he
e ec s o ins i u ional indices on Colombian expo s lows we e conside ed in le els and
he ins i u ional dis ances be ween coun ies. Ou indings con i m he hypo hesis ha
ins i u ional quali y has a posi i e e ec on Colombian ade o mos o he indices con-
side ed in he pape . Howe e , he e ec s o he con ol o co up ion index on expo s
di e s om indings in p e ious s udies, which sugges his a iable has a i al ole in
he expansion o ade.
We conclude ha in e ms o Colombian expo s, he esul s demons a e ha ule
o law and egula o y quali y ha e he mos subs an ial impac , which e eals he need
o imp o e condi ions ela ed o legal ce ain y and ma ke compe i ion in he coun-
y. Mo eo e , he es ima ions exhibi he ema kable e ec on expo s o he labou
compe i i eness a iable. None heless, as men ioned, Colombian labou p oduc i i y
is declining, and he measu es implemen ed by he go e nmen o enhance his indi-
ca o a e no ha ing he expec ed e ec . Fu he mo e, unlike p e ious indings ega d-
ing he impac o ade ag eemen s on expo s, ou esul s e eal ha ha ing an FTA in
o ce hu s Colombian expo s. Fu he mo e, i is c ucial o poin ou ha he a iables
ha a e usually conside ed in g a i y models such as physical dis ance, GDP, con igui y,
language, and an FTA, among o he s, include limi ed o e en ze o ma gin o imp o e-
men . By con as , de eloping coun ies such as Colombia ha e a conside able ma gin
o imp o emen in hei ins i u ional indica o s (see Fig.3), which could be a unda-
men al d i e boos ing i s expo s.
On he o he hand, ins i u ional dis ance es ima es e eal ha he di e ences in ins i-
u ion quali y be ween Colombia and i s pa ne s educe i s olume o expo s. These
esul s con i m he need o imp o e Colombian go e nance indices, no only as a
policy capable o imp o ing ins i u ional quali y, bu also as a policy ha educes he
ins i u ional dis ance om i s pa ne s, he eby p omo ing expo s by educing hese
ins i u ional di e ences. Ou indings suppo p e ious s udies whe e i is concluded
ha ins i u ional di e ence a ec s ade lows, as is he case wi h Colombian expo s.
Ou s udy o e s some policy sugges ions o Colombia, whe e go e nance has been
in luenced by an in e nal a med con lic ha has las ed o mo e han 50yea s. One sug-
ges ion conce ns he ou s anding e ec o he a iable ule o law on Colombian expo s
and he objec i e o imp o e he coun y’s legal amewo k, aimed mainly a s eng hen-
ing i s judicial sys em, which p o ides he condi ions o imp o ing he compliance o
con ac s and p o ec ion o p i a e p ope y. These ad ances will also ha e an indi ec
e ec on p omo ing p i a e in es men . Ano he policy sugges ion ocuses on he eg-
ula ion quali y a iable, o ien ed owa ds he imp o emen s o condi ions o he p o-
mo ion o he p i a e sec o h ough he ein o cemen o policies and egula ions ha
suppo i s de elopmen . O e all, Colombian policymake s should ocus hei e o s on
imp o ing each o he Colombian ins i u ional quali y indices because o he indi idual
Page 19 o 21
Ab eoe al. Jou nal o Economic S uc u es (2021) 10:24
e ec o each index on he expansion o expo s and, he e o e, on highe economic
g ow h.
In gene al, he esul s o his esea ch suppo he idea ha ins i u ional quali y p o-
mo es expo s be ween na ions. Ou s udy con i ms he hypo hesis ega ding he in lu-
ence o ins i u ional quali y on expo s, ega dless o whe he we conside i s in luence
in le els o ins i u ional dis ance be ween Colombia and i s pa ne s.
Howe e , one limi a ion o ou s udy is ha we es ima e using agg ega e ade da a and
we do no p o ide sec o al economic esul s. Ano he is he non-inclusion o in o mal
go e nance indices such as he us a iable, which could p o ide di e en pe spec i es
on he isk o de aul p esumed by expo e s o be p esen in an en i onmen o poo
e ec i eness among o mal ins i u ions. Fu he esea ch should also iden i y e ec i e
policies o measu es ha imp o e he coun y’s ins i u ional quali y le el as a ac o ha
s eng hens business de elopmen in he epublic and e en ually p omo es he g ow h o
expo s o i s pa ne s. Finally, we conside ha u u e s udies could empi ically examine
he impac o COVID-19 on he ins i u ional quali y o de eloping coun ies and, conse-
quen ly, i s e ec on hei expo s.
Acknowledgemen s
No applicable.
Au ho s’ con ibu ions
CA, RB and CR con ibu ed o he design and implemen a ion o he esea ch, o he analysis o he esul s and o he
w i ing o he manusc ip . All au ho s ead and app o ed he inal manusc ip .
Au ho s’ in o ma ion
CA is a doc o al s uden in economic in eg a ion a he Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y. RB and CR a e p o esso s o
applied economics a he Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y.
Funding
CA was suppo ed by he Colombian go e nmen and i s Minis y o Science, Technology and Inno a ion h ough he
Pasapo e a la Ciencia p og am.
A ailabili y o da a and ma e ials
The da ase s used and/o analysed du ing he cu en s udy a e a ailable om he co esponding au ho on easonable
eques .
Decla a ions
Compe ing in e es s
The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no compe ing in e es s.
Recei ed: 18 Janua y 2021 Re ised: 29 Oc obe 2021 Accep ed: 3 No embe 2021
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