Habi a In e na ional 142 (2023) 102946
A ailable online 25 Oc obe 2023
0197-3975/© 2023 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/).
Socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban clima e change adap a ion planning:
P ac ices and p ospec s o jus adap a ion
Mia P all
a
,
*
, Ma a Olazabal
b
,
c
, Ma in Lehmann
a
a
Aalbo g Uni e si y, Depa men o Sus ainabili y and Planning, Aalbo g, Denma k
b
Basque Cen e o Clima e Change, BC3, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain
c
IKERBASQUE, Basque Founda ion o Science, Bilbao, Spain
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Socio-economic p ojec ions
Scena io planning
U ban clima e change adap a ion
Clima e jus ice
Clima e u u es
Pa icipa o y planning
U ban planning
Jus adap a ion
ABSTRACT
U ban clima e change adap a ion e o s ha e o en been c i icized o exace ba ing he inequi able impac s o
clima e change by ailing o add ess he social, economic, and en i onmen al impac s o adap a ion. The e is an
u gen need o inco po a e equi y and jus ice conce ns in adap a ion planning as well as app oaches and ools
ha enable such in eg a ion. Howe e , clima e jus ice schola ship o da e has la gely ocused on heo e ical
ques ions and he e is s ill a lack o ocus on he ope a ional aspec s o suppo ing he implemen a ion o clima e
jus ice. In his a icle, we a gue ha exis ing ools al eady in use in planning p ac ice ha e he po en ial o
suppo his aim. In pa icula , we a gue ha he in eg a ion o socio-economic da a in o adap a ion planning
p ac ice could be an a enue o jus ice-cen e ed u ban adap a ion. While he po en ial is clea , how o do his is
s ill unde explo ed. To shed ligh on his ques ion, we conduc a sys ema ic e iew o esea ch on he use o
socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban clima e change adap a ion planning and decision-making o in es iga e how
hese could be used as a ool o ensu e jus u ban adap a ion. G ounded in a ecognized concep ual amewo k on
u ban clima e jus ice, we analyze he e olu ion o esea ch on socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban adap a ion
and e alua e he po en ial o exis ing applica ions o p omo e clima e jus ice. Th ough his analysis, we ind ha
while socio-economic p ojec ions ha e no been explici ly linked o jus ice ou comes in he exis ing li e a u e,
clea po en ials exis o hese o be used as a ool o p omo e dis ibu i e, p ocedu al, and ecogni ion and
es o a i e jus ice. Finally, we p opose an ope a ional amewo k o he applica ion o socio-economic p o-
jec ions o p omo e jus ice-cen e ed u ban adap a ion. Applying such a amewo k o u ban adap a ion planning
can help cen e jus ice conce ns in la ge s a egic adap a ion planning e o s and enable a new o m o mo e
inclusi e, da a-d i en clima e go e nance in ci ies based on cu en know-how and exis ing capaci ies.
1. In oduc ion
While clima e change is inhe en ly a global challenge, he impac s o
a changing clima e a e no el equally ac oss wo ld egions, na ions,
ci ies, o communi ies. Clima e change disp opo iona ely impac s hose
who ha e con ibu ed leas o global g eenhouse gas emissions and
lea es ma ginalized and mino i y g oups wi h low adap i e capaci y
highly exposed o clima e haza ds (G anbe g & Glo e , 2021; Hughes &
Ho mann, 2020; Shi, 2021; Shi e al., 2016). Policy and planning e o s
ha e o en exace ba ed he inequi able impac s o clima e change by
ailing o add ess social, economic, and en i onmen al consequences o
clima ic changes (E iksen e al., 2021). This has o en lead o unexpec ed
and unconside ed nega i e e ec s, in o he wo ds, o maladap a ion
(Hughes, 2020; Shi e al., 2016).
A an u ban scale, he impac s o bo h clima e change and adap a ion
esponses become spa ially explici leading o unique challenges o
equi y and jus ice in adap a ion planning. Ci ies ha e his o ically been
si es o inc eased inequali y and ha e mo e ecen ly become ho spo s o
heigh ened isk h ough inc eases in haza ds, exposu e and ulne a-
bili y in he ace o clima e change (Dodman e al., 2022). U ban Clima e
Change Adap a ion (CCA) e o s ha e o en also ein o ced exis ing
inequali ies in ci ies h ough hei endency o selec i ely p o ec u ban
spaces and asse s ha a e alued om an economic pe spec i e (Chu &
Cannon, 2021; G anbe g & Glo e , 2021; S eele, Maccallum, By ne, &
Hous on, 2012).
The e is hus a clea need o conside a ion o jus ice a all s ages o
* Co esponding au ho . Aalbo g Uni e si y, Depa men o Sus ainabili y and Planning, Aalbo g, Denma k.
E-mail add ess: [email p o ec ed] (M. P all).
Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
Habi a In e na ional
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h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.habi a in .2023.102946
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Habi a In e na ional 142 (2023) 102946
2
u ban adap a ion policy and planning p ac ice. I is c i ical o ad ance
c ea i e, inclusi e app oaches o planning and go e nance ha chal-
lenge d i e s o sys emic inequi y in ci ies and enhance adap i e ca-
paci y o all u ban dwelle s (G anbe g & Glo e , 2021; Shi e al., 2016;
S eele e al., 2012). Howe e , clima e jus ice schola ship o da e has
been p ima ily heo e ical and has gi en limi ed a en ion o how o
apply equi y and jus ice c i e ia in CCA planning and policy making
(Amo im-Maia, Anguelo ski, Chu, & Connolly, 2022; Hughes & Ho -
mann, 2020). F om a p ac ice poin o iew, eme ging e idence poin s
ou how ci ies s uggle o be ea ly adop e s o equi able adap a ion
s a egies by no malizing he clima e equi y he o ic h ough adap a ion
planning p ocedu es (Cannon, Chu, Na ekal, & Waaland, 2023).
He e we a gue ha he in eg a ion o u u e socio-economic da a
could be one a enue h ough which o ope a ionalize clima e jus ice in
adap a ion planning and policy making. While u u e clima e scena ios
ha e become common bes p ac ice ools o adap a ion planning
(Dessai, Lu, & Risbey, 2005), such p ojec ions a e a ely accompanied
by scena ios o u u e ulne abili ies (Ju gile ich, R¨
as¨
anen, & Juhola,
2021; Olazabal, Gala aga, Fo d, Sainz De Mu ie a, & Lesnikowski,
2019), i.e., by an unde s anding o how economy and socie y e ol e and
change unde clima e impac s (and ac ions) o unde o he e ol ing
con ex ual en i onmen al, social o economic condi ions. Such a na ow
app oach o adap a ion planning ha only conside s he u u e e olu-
ion o clima e haza ds while neglec ing he dynamic na u e o exposu e
and ulne abili y will ine i ably gi e ise o issues o maladap a ion and
injus ice as such an app oach ails o conside e ol ing local needs
(Bi kmann e al., 2020; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; an Ruij en e al.,
2014).
Socio-economic p ojec ions illus a e po en ial de elopmen u u es
and ha e he po en ial o help decision make s isualize who o plan o
and how o p omo e solu ions o clima e esilien de elopmen ha no
only cope wi h u u e clima e unce ain y bu also espond o e ol ing
socio-economic needs o di e se u ban communi ies. I is widely
acknowledged ha e idence-based decision making is c i ical in
ad ancing u ban clima e ac ion. Howe e , da a-d i en u ban go e -
nance has been c i icized o i s echnoc a ic na u e and endency o
a o ex e nal economic in e es s o e local needs (Hughes, 2020).
While he exe cise o p ojec ing po en ial u u es may adi ionally be
associa ed wi h echnoc a ic, quan i a i e app oaches o planning, he
co e concep o socio-economic p ojec ions is much b oade . A emp s o
coun e ac he o e ly echnical na u e o u ban clima e ac ion ha e
o en employed pa icipa o y app oaches o planning. Howe e , suc-
cess ul in eg a ion o scien i ic and local o al e na i e knowledge sys-
ems in adap a ion planning emains sca ce (Olazabal, Chu, Cas ´
an
B o o, & Pa e son, 2021). The applica ion o socio-economic p o-
jec ions o u ban adap a ion go e nance could ep esen a unique op-
po uni y o combine di e se o ms o scien i ic and local knowledge
wi hou sac i icing he adop ion o mo e inclusi e da a-d i en decision
making. While socio-economic p ojec ions ha e po en ial o in o m bo h
adap a ion and mi iga ion planning and policy making, local de-
mog aphic g ow h and local policies in gene al a e main d i e s o u ban
clima e ulne abili ies (Vigui´
e, Hallega e, & Rozenbe g, 2014). Righ ly,
hese kinds o da a ha e been his o ically included in mi iga ion plan-
ning p ocesses, bu ha e no been used in adap a ion planning and de-
cision making as o en, wi h impo an implica ions o equi y and
jus ice (Anguelo ski e al., 2016).
I is he e o e pe inen o in es iga e how inclusi e applica ions o
socio-economic p ojec ions can be used as a ool o b idge he gap be-
ween echnical, scien i ic in o ma ion and local knowledge o ealize a
new equi able o m o da a-assis ed u ban clima e go e nance. A e
aming he ques ion h ough a discussion o he h ee co e concep s o
ou concep ual and analy ical amewo k, we pe o m a sys ema ic
li e a u e e iew and hema ic analysis ha seek o in es iga e wo
ques ions: (1) how socio-economic p ojec ions a e amed as a ool in
u ban CCA planning, and (2) how hey can be used o ensu e clima e
jus ice, acco ding o schola ly communi y. Based on he indings, we
p opose an ope a ional amewo k o he applica ion o socio-economic
p ojec ions ha can help cen e jus ice conce ns in la ge s a egic
adap a ion planning e o s.
2. F aming he ques ion
We discuss below he h ee co e concep s o he concep ual and
analy ical amewo k adop ed o his s udy: (1) socio-economic p o-
jec ions (o scena ios), (2) he u ban CCA planning p ocess and (3)
heo ies on u ban clima e jus ice.
2.1. Wha a e socio-economic p ojec ions and how a e hey applied?
Socio-economic p ojec ions o scena ios ha e a wide ange o de i-
ni ions and applica ions bu can b oadly be unde s ood as models o
po en ial u u e de elopmen ends based on p ojec ed socio-economic
a iables such as popula ion, demog aphy, economic de elopmen , and
land use. Socio-economic p ojec ions can be applied ac oss indi idual o
combined spa ial scales. Some de ine socio-economic scena ios as
combina ions o quan i a i e and quali a i e in o ma ion ha oge he
cha ac e ize possible u u es (K iegle e al., 2012). We ake a b oade
iew o socio-economic p ojec ions o scena ios as quali a i e, quan i-
a i e, o spa ial p ojec ions o po en ial de elopmen u u es. This im-
plies ha socio-economic p ojec ions encompass global, quan i a i e
p ojec ions o popula ion o land use change bu also includes locally
speci ic scena ios o po en ial de elopmen u u es. Likewise, we use he
e ms ‘p ojec ion’ and ‘scena io’ in e changeably.
Se e al i e a ions o global socio-economic p ojec ions ha e been
p oduced wi hin he clima e change esea ch a ena o e he pas se e al
decades. The Special Repo on Emissions Scena ios (SRES) published by
he IPCC in 2000 con ains ea ly socio-economic p ojec ions (A nell
e al., 2004). The sha ed socio-economic pa hways (SSPs) (IIASA, 2018)
ou line i e po en ial u u e de elopmen pa hways in he o m o
quali a i e na a i es and quan i a i e p ojec ions on a global, egional,
and na ional scale (IIASA, 2018).
In addi ion o he SSPs, local socio-economic scena io analysis is
inc easingly being used in coun y, ci y, and sec o speci ic s udies on
CCA ( an Ruij en e al., 2014). Scena ios used a hese ine scales a e
ei he downscaled om global p ojec ions such as he SSPs o a e
c ea ed h ough bo om-up app oaches ha ocus on a speci ic local
con ex (Bi kmann e al., 2020; 2021; an Ruij en e al., 2014).
2.2. Which a e he main elemen s o he u ban clima e change adap a ion
planning p ocess?
Socio-economic p ojec ions can be used a di e en s ages o he
u ban adap a ion planning p ocess, wi h di e en pu poses. In o de o
enable a discussion o he applicabili y o socio-economic p ojec ions o
u ban clima e change adap a ion, i is use ul o dis inguish key s ages o
u ban adap a ion planning and associa ed ac ions. U ban planning
p ocesses, ools and ules a e widely ecognized as ins i u ional enable s
o clima e adap a ion ac ion (Ca e e al., 2015; Olazabal & Cas ´
an
B o o, 2022). U ban CCA planning includes delibe a e decision making
in ended o minimize isk and maximize oppo uni ies o clima e change
(A aos e al., 2016; Füssel, 2007). U ban adap a ion planning should
hen conside ques ions ega ding u u e clima e a iabili y, he impac
o u u e changes on cu en decision making, and he po en ial conse-
quences o immedia e o pos poned ac ion (Füssel, 2007). The u ban
CCA planning p ocess gene ally ollows se e al phases (some imes, in
p ac ice, no necessa ily sequen ial) including isk assessmen , iden i-
ica ion and selec ion o adap a ion op ions, implemen a ion, and
moni o ing and e alua ion (Clima e ADAPT, n.d.). Table 1 de ails he
speci ic ac ions ha may be aken a each s age o he u ban CCA
planning p ocess.
M. P all e al.
Habi a In e na ional 142 (2023) 102946
3
2.3. A amewo k o u ban clima e jus ice
Theo ies o u ban clima e jus ice can help us o unde s and he jus-
ice implica ions o each s ep o he u ban CCA planning p ocess. The
shi owa ds a jus ice-cen e ed iew o CCA has been associa ed wi h a
numbe o di e en heo ies su ounding issues o equi y. U ban jus ice
and en i onmen al jus ice can be unde s ood as key ounding concep s
ha ha e e en ually led o he popula iza ion o he e m clima e jus ice
(Bulkeley, Ca min, Cas ´
an B o o, Edwa ds, & Fulle , 2013; G anbe g &
Glo e , 2021; Hughes, 2020). The ollowing concep ual amewo k
p o ides an o e iew o he h ee pilla s o u ban clima e jus ice mos
o en discussed in he li e a u e and is used o unde s and u ban clima e
jus ice in his s udy (see Fig. 1).
Fo he pu poses o ou speci ic s udy, his amewo k summa izes
heo y on u ban and en i onmen al jus ice (G anbe g & Glo e , 2021;
Hughes, 2020; Hughes & Ho mann, 2020; Reckien e al., 2018; S eele
e al., 2012), clima e jus ice and clima e jus ci ies (Bulkeley e al., 2013;
Dadashpoo & Al andipou , 2020; Hughes & Ho mann, 2020; Ju jonas,
Seekamp, Ri e s, & Cu s, 2020; Moh a & Khi an, 2021; Swanson,
2021), clima e u banism (Bulkeley, 2021; Cas ´
an B o o & Robin, 2020;
Long & Rice, 2018), jus adap a ion (Malloy & Ashc a , 2020), jus
u ban ansi ions (He on, 2021; Hughes & Ho mann, 2020), and he
igh o he ci y (G anbe g & Glo e , 2021; Hughes & Ho mann, 2020)
o de ine u ban clima e jus ice in he con ex o u ban adap a ion
planning. I will be used o connec socio-economic p ojec ions wi h
speci ic u ban adap a ion jus ice ou comes.
3. Da a and me hods
We pe o m asys ema ic e iew ollowing p inciples p oposed by
Be ang-Fo d, Pea ce, and Fo d (2015) o apply his me hod speci ically
o adap a ion esea ch. The li e a u e sea ch and selec ion p ocess used
is isualized in Fig. 2.
The li e a u e sea ch was conduc ed in he Web o Science and was
limi ed o esul s in English as well as o a icles o e iews. All o he
documen ypes we e excluded om he analysis. No empo al ange o
geog aphical delimi a ion was speci ied in he sea ch p ocess. Sea ch
e ms we e selec ed based on he esea ch objec i e. In his case,
“u ban”, “clima e change”, “adap a ion”, “socio-economic p ojec ions”,
and “jus ice” we e conside ed key e ms. An i e a i e p ocess was
applied o es di e en sea ch s ings using hese key e ms as well as
synonyms and ela ed e ms. Du ing his p ocess, i was ound ha
including e ms ela ed o jus ice and equi y in sea ch s ings p oduces
i ele an esul s due o he lack o li e a u e cu en ly linking jus ice
issues o bo h u ban CCA and socio-economic p ojec ions. The e o e, he
choice is made o exclude jus ice om he inal sea ch s ing and ins ead
c i ically analyze he selec ed li e a u e on he use o socio-economic
p ojec ions in u ban adap a ion planning h ough he lens o he
u ban clima e jus ice amewo k. This c i ical analysis is p esen ed in
Sec ion 4 and assesses he ex en o which socio-economic p ojec ions
a e cu en ly p oposed as a ool o suppo clima e jus ice in u ban
adap a ion planning and also how such p ojec ions could po en ially
suppo jus ice ou comes in he u u e. While e ining he sea ch s ing,
sea ches including he e m “assessmen ” as well as hose including
“social” and “economic” we e es ed wi h he in en o b oadening he
esul s, howe e , i was ul ima ely concluded ha he inclusion o hese
e ms led o nume ous i ele an esul s ha did no i he scope o he
s udy. Fo example, including hese e ms yielded many esul s ha did
no employ socio-economic p ojec ions and he e o e hese e ms we e
consequen ly excluded. Wi h hese conside a ions in mind, he ollowing
inal sea ch s ing was de eloped: (u ban* OR “ci ies” OR “ci y” OR
“municipal”) AND clima * AND adap * AND (“socioeconomic” OR “socio-
economic”) AND (“p ojec ion” OR “scena io” OR “pa hway”).
The sea ch (see Fig. 2) was conduc ed in he Web o Science Co e
Collec ion on Feb ua y 28 h, 2022 and p oduced 127 esul s. In he i s
s age o li e a u e selec ion, esul s we e il e ed o inclusion based on
language (English) and documen ype (a icle o e iew), hus limi ing
he ma e ial conside ed o 117 esul s. In he second s age o li e a u e
selec ion, esul s we e selec ed o inclusion based on ou inclusion
c i e ia: (1) a icle is u ban scale o discusses u ban issues, (2) ocus on
clima e change, (3) ocus on adap a ion, and (4) a icle discusses o
applies socio-economic p ojec ions o scena ios. A e iew o a icle i les
and abs ac s was pe o med o iden i y publica ions in line wi h hese
c i e ia. On his basis, 41 esul s we e selec ed o inclusion and 76 e-
sul s we e excluded. Fo a comple e lis o included and excluded li e -
a u e, see Supplemen a y Ma e ial 1 (SM1).
Following he inal li e a u e selec ion and c i ical app aisal, esul s
we e analyzed using hema ic analysis. The hema ic analysis conside s
bo h mani es and la en con en eme ging om he li e a u e. Fo
example, mani es con en in he o m o ph ases such as ‘pa icipa o y
scena io de elopmen ’ o ‘SSPs’ was used o unde s and which ype o
p ojec ions a e used in di e en s udies while la en con en was used o
unde s and mo e nuanced discussions su ounding why p ojec ions a e
used and he unde lying challenges o applying such p ojec ions.
On he basis o he con en analysis and o espond o ou esea ch
ques ions, esul s ha e been g ouped in o six key hemes (see Sec ion 4).
These hemes enable a comp ehensi e unde s anding o why and how
Table 1
S ages o he u ban clima e change adap a ion planning p ocess. Adap ed om
Clima e adap (n.d.), New e al. (2022), and Olazabal and Cas ´
an B o o (2022).
Planning S age Ac ions
P epa ing he g ound o
adap a ion
● Ob aining poli ical suppo o adap a ion
● Collec ing ini ial in o ma ion
● Se ing up adap a ion p ocesses wi hin and
beyond he municipali y
● Iden i ying and ob aining human and echnical
esou ces and esponsible pa ies
● Iden i ying and ob aining inancing and unding
● Iden i ying and engaging s akeholde s
● Communica ing adap a ion
Assessing clima e change isks
and ulne abili ies
● Recognizing pas , p esen , and po en ial u u e
clima e impac s
● Unde s anding clima e p ojec ions and u u e
impac s
● Iden i ying ulne able u ban sec o s
● Conduc ing isk and ulne abili y assessmen s
● Unde s anding he ole o su ounding a eas in
adap a ion
● Iden i ying main adap a ion conce ns and
iden i ying gene al goals and speci ic objec i es
o adap a ion
Iden i ying adap a ion op ions ● C ea ing a ca alog o ele an adap a ion
op ions
● Sc eening o ele an examples o good
adap a ion p ac ices
Assessing and selec ing
adap a ion op ions
● Choosing an assessmen amewo k o
adap a ion op ions
● Conduc ing an e alua ion (e.g., cos -bene i
analysis, easibili y, u gency) o adap a ion
measu es
● P io i izing adap a ion op ions
● Iden i ying esponsible pa ies o
implemen a ion
Implemen ing adap a ion ● Designing an e ec i e/ easible adap a ion
ac ion/implemen a ion plan
● Financing and leading adap a ion p ocess
● Finding examples o adap a ion ac ion plans
● Mains eaming adap a ion in u ban policies and
plans
Adap a ion moni o ing,
e alua ion and lea ning
● De eloping he moni o ing and e alua ion
app oach
● De ining moni o ing and e alua ion indica o s
o measu e adap a ion p og ess and adap a ion
impac s
● Finding examples o adap a ion moni o ing
and/o e alua ion indica o s
● Using moni o ing and e alua ion esul s o
enhance he p ocess o adap a ion
M. P all e al.
Habi a In e na ional 142 (2023) 102946
4
Fig. 1. A concep ual amewo k o unde s anding u ban clima e jus ice.
Fig. 2. Li e a u e sea ch and selec ion p ocess.
M. P all e al.
Habi a In e na ional 142 (2023) 102946
5
socio-economic p ojec ions a e cu en ly being used in u ban adap a ion
planning. This unde s anding is hen used o c i ically analyze he po-
en ial o socio-economic p ojec ions o p omo e u ban clima e jus ice.
4. Resul s
Resea ch on socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban CCA i s eme ged
in 2011 and has gained popula i y o e he pas decade. 12 o he 41
publica ions e iewed we e published in 2021, indica ing a e y ecen
popula iza ion o he esea ch a ea. The majo i y o publica ions (31)
all wi hin he en i onmen al sciences subjec a ea acco ding o he Web
o Science (WoS) ca ego ies. S udies p ima ily ake a single haza d
app oach by ocusing on hea (11 publica ions), looding (10 publica-
ions), o u ban wa e managemen (9 publica ions). The geog aphical
co e age o he li e a u e is p ima ily Asian (14 publica ions) and Eu-
opean (14 publica ions).
Ou analysis o 41 a icles e eals six key hemes ( he numbe o
associa ed publica ions is indica ed): (1) jus i ica ions o using socio-
economic p ojec ions in u ban clima e change adap a ion (26 publica-
ions), (2) ypes o socio-economic p ojec ions and me hods o scena io
de elopmen in u ban adap a ion planning (40 publica ions), (3) use o
socio-economic p ojec ions h oughou he adap a ion planning p ocess
(41 publica ions), (4) challenges and limi a ions o using socio-
economic p ojec ions in u ban adap a ion planning (13 publica ions),
(5) ecommenda ions o u u e use o socio-economic p ojec ions in
u ban adap a ion planning (17 publica ions), and (6) ecommenda ions
o u u e use o socio-economic p ojec ions o suppo u ban clima e
jus ice (8 publica ions).
4.1. Jus i ica ions o using socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban clima e
change adap a ion
I is widely ega ded ha despi e u u e unce ain y, i is essen ial o
make decisions on adap a ion oday. Scena io-based app oaches using
socio-economic p ojec ions help o acili a e decision making on adap-
a ion in he con ex o a highly unce ain u u e (Bi kmann e al., 2020;
Ciumasu, 2013; Huang e al., 2011; Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021;
Roha e al., 2021; Roha , Flacke, Dosio, Dao, & an Maa se een, 2019;
Te ama, Cla ke, Rounse ell, F onzek, & Ca e , 2019).
The goal o scena io analysis is no o educe u u e unce ain y bu
ins ead o be e unde s and he ange o possible u u es o make
in o med decisions on adap a ion oday (Bi kmann e al., 2021; Bo is,
Leonha d , Ma salek, ¨
Os e lund, & Viklande , 2016; Egge & Mau e ,
2015; Huang e al., 2011). The e is a g owing consensus o he need o
lexible, low- eg e adap a ion op ions ha mee cu en needs, a oid
pa h dependency, and can succeed unde a wide ange o u u e clima e
and socio-economic de elopmen condi ions (Casal-Campos, Fu, Bu le ,
& Moo e, 2015; Li e al., 2017; Manocha & Babo ic, 2017; Roha e al.,
2021).
I is especially c i ical o conside u u e socio-economic scena ios
alongside clima e p ojec ions o be able o be e assess u u e ulne -
abili y a an u ban scale. So a , u ban adap a ion planning has la gely
igno ed u u e p ojec ions o ulne abili y and adap i e capaci y
(Bi kmann e al., 2020; Bo is e al., 2016; Meye e al., 2019; Pa a-
nd ash & Chang, 2016; Peng & Li, 2021; Reimann, Volls ed , e al.,
2021). When socio-economic de elopmen pa hways a e conside ed in
isk assessmen s, cu en socio-economic ulne abili y da a is o en
supe imposed on o p ojec ions o u u e haza ds o de e mine u u e isk
(Bi kmann e al., 2020; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Roha , Wilhelmi, e al.,
2019).
The ailu e o conside socio-economic aspec s in adap a ion plan-
ning can lead o poo unde s anding o u u e socio-economic de elop-
men and ulne abili y, leading o inapp op ia e and ine ec i e
adap a ion in e en ions (Bi kmann e al., 2020, 2021; Ju gile ich e al.,
2021; Meye e al., 2019; Xu e al., 2021). The e is cu en ly limi ed
unde s anding o how socio-economic changes d i e u u e clima e
ulne abili y, pa icula ly in ela ion o in e sec ing, indi ec , and
cascading e ec s o such change (Ju gile ich e al., 2021).
Finally, ano he impo an jus i ica ion made by he li e a u e is ha
he impac s o clima e change in he u u e will be d i en no only by
shi s in clima e bu also by socio-economic de elopmen changes
(Reimann, Jones, Nikole opoulos, & Va eidis, 2021; Te ama e al.,
2019). This is ue o a wide ange o haza ds including hea s ess and
coas al lood isk (Abadie, 2018; Bi kmann e al., 2020; Bo is e al.,
2016; El-Fadel & Ghanimeh, 2013; K ummenaue , Cos a, P ahl, &
K opp, 2021; Pa k, Tho ne, Hashimo o, Lee, & Takahashi, 2021; Wol ,
Nikole opoulos, Hinkel, & Va eidis, 2020). Some s udies e en ind ha
u u e socio-economic a iabili y con ibu es equally o mo e o u u e
isk and impac han changes in clima e (Bo is e al., 2016; Pa and ash
& Chang, 2016; Pa kinson e al., 2016; Roha , Flacke, e al., 2019; Wol
e al., 2020). Thus, knowing socio-economic u u es u ns u gen and
c i ical.
4.2. Types o socio-economic p ojec ions and me hods o scena io
de elopmen in u ban adap a ion planning
Socio-economic scena io de elopmen and applica ion in u ban
adap a ion planning gene ally ollow wo app oaches: pa icipa o y
scena io de elopmen o modeling-based scena io de elopmen .
4.2.1. Pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen
Pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen app oaches a e o en unde -
aken in esponse o a lack o local da a and a e ca ied ou o inc ease
he ele ance o scena io de elopmen p ocesses, p omo ing local
owne ship o adap a ion solu ions, and building us among s ake-
holde s (Bi kmann e al., 2020; Li e al., 2017; Meye e al., 2019; Roha ,
Wilhelmi, e al., 2019). Ou o 41, 13 o he s udies analyzed use
pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen app oaches as shown in Table 2.
S akeholde pa icipa ion is embedded in socio-economic scena io
de elopmen me hodologies in di e en ways. Some app oaches
emphasize he co-c ea ion and co-p oduc ion o knowledge and s i e o
include s akeholde s h oughou he en i e p ocess (Meye e al., 2019;
Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021). O he s, ins ead, limi he use o
s akeholde eedback o he inal s ages o he scena io de elopmen
p ocess in o de o ge local eedback on scena io na a i es ha ha e
been al eady pa ially de eloped by esea che s o o be e unde s and
which socio-economic d i e s a e mos impo an in he local a ea being
s udied (Ciumasu, 2013; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Kamei, Mas ucci, &
Table 2
U ban adap a ion li e a u e using pa icipa o y scena ios o de elop socio-
economic p ojec ions. No e 1: Some li e a u e uses mul iple me hods o sce-
na io de elopmen and is he e o e ca ego ized mo e han once. No e 2: SSP:
Sha ed Socio-Economic Pa hway, SRES: Special Repo on Emissions Scena ios.
See SM2 o u he de ails.
Type Me hods (#) Use o
SSPs/
SRES
(#)
Scena io
Ou pu (#)
Sou ces
(#)
Pa icipa o y
scena io
de elopmen
S akeholde
wo kshop (8)
Yes (5)
No (3)
Quali a i e
(8)
Quan i a i e
(5)
Spa ial (2)
(8)
S akeholde
consul a ion/
ques ionnai e (6)
Yes (2)
No (4)
Quali a i e
(2)
Quan i a i e
(4)
Spa ial (3)
(6)
Pa icipa o y
mapping (1)
Yes (0)
No (1)
Quali a i e
(1)
Quan i a i e
(1)
Spa ial (1)
(1)
M. P all e al.
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6
an Ruij en, 2021; Roha , Wilhelmi, e al., 2019). Mos pa icipa o y
app oaches ocus on including ‘expe ’ s akeholde s (Kamei e al., 2021;
Meye e al., 2019; Roha , Wilhelmi, e al., 2019); howe e , some also
s i e o secu e b oade pa icipa ion om local ci izens (Reimann,
Volls ed , e al., 2021). S akeholde s a e gene ally engaged h ough
wo kshops, su eys, o ques ionnai es (Bi kmann e al., 2020; Egge &
Mau e , 2015; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Kamei e al., 2021; Li e al., 2017;
Meye e al., 2019).
Scena io ou pu s om pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen ap-
p oaches mos o en ake he o m o quali a i e na a i es desc ibing
po en ial u u es (Bi kmann e al., 2020, 2021; Ciumasu, 2013; Egge &
Mau e , 2015; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Kamei e al., 2021; Li e al., 2017;
Meye e al., 2019; Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021; Wan, Radhak-
ishnan, Ze enbe gen, & Pa hi ana, 2020). Some pa icipa o y ap-
p oaches also use quali a i e na a i es as a s a ing poin o c ea ing
quan i ied and spa ialized socio-economic p ojec ions (Bi kmann e al.,
2020, 2021; Egge & Mau e , 2015; Hadipou , Va aie, & Ke le, 2020;
Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Li e al., 2017; Roha , Wilhelmi, e al., 2019;
Ronco e al., 2014; Wan e al., 2020). Li e al. (2017) di ec ly use
s akeholde wo kshops o c ea e quan i ied socio-economic p ojec ions,
while Ju gile ich e al. (2021) use pa icipa o y mapping o unde s and
spa ial pa e ns o isk unde di e en u u e scena ios.
While a numbe o pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen app oaches
do no conside he sha ed socio-economic pa hways (SSPs) (Bi kmann
e al., 2020; Ciumasu, 2013; Egge & Mau e , 2015; Hadipou e al.,
2020; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Ronco e al., 2014; Wan e al., 2020),
some s udies embed local scena ios in a global con ex by u ilizing he
SSPs as bounda y condi ions o local socio-economic na a i es in an
a emp o main ain local-global consis ency and enable compa ison
ac oss case s udies (Bi kmann e al., 2021; Kamei e al., 2021; Li e al.,
2017; Meye e al., 2019; Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021; Roha , Wil-
helmi, e al., 2019).
4.2.2. Modeling-based scena io de elopmen
Modeling-based scena io de elopmen app oaches gene ally ake
depa u e in downscaling o la ge scale p ojec ions (Bo is e al., 2016;
K. Chen e al., 2017; Dubey, Lal, Kuma , Kuma , & D o niko , 2021;
El-Fadel & Ghanimeh, 2013; K ummenaue e al., 2021; Pa k e al.,
2021; Pa kinson e al., 2016; Peng & Li, 2021; Roha e al., 2021; Roha ,
Flacke, e al., 2019; Te ama e al., 2019; Wol e al., 2020) o p edic i e
modeling app oaches ha gene a e a wide ange o possible u u e
scena ios. P edic i e modeling me hodologies a e di e se bu include
s ochas ic modeling (Abadie, 2018; Hemma i, Mahmoud, Ellingwood, &
C ooks, 2021), g a i y-based modeling (Reimann, Jones, e al., 2021),
and CA-Ma ko modeling (X. Chen, Zhang, Chen, & Huang, 2021; Xu
e al., 2021). Two s udies ake a sligh ly di e en app oach by modeling
adap a ion pa hways using mapping o pa hway gene a ion app oaches
(Manocha & Babo ic, 2017; U ich & Rauch, 2014). A o al o 27 s udies
use modeling-based app oaches as shown in Table 3.
While some modeling-based app oaches use SSPs (Bo is e al., 2016;
K. Chen e al., 2017; X. Chen e al., 2021; Dubey e al., 2021; K um-
menaue e al., 2021; Pa k e al., 2021; Pa kinson e al., 2016; Peng & Li,
2021; Reimann, Jones, e al., 2021; Roha e al., 2021; Roha , Flacke,
e al., 2019; Te ama e al., 2019; Wol e al., 2020; Zhu e al., 2020),
o he s, ins ead, ely on ma hema ical calcula ions o po en ial u u e
scena ios (Abadie, 2018; Ap eda, D’Amb osio, & di Ma ino, 2019;
Banu, Hu, Guo, Hu s , & Tong, 2014; Casal-Campos e al., 2015; A. Chu,
Lin, & Chiueh, 2017; Hemma i e al., 2021; Manocha & Babo ic, 2017;
Pa and ash & Chang, 2016; Sampson, Quay, & Whi e, 2016; U ich &
Rauch, 2014; Xu e al., 2021). Scena io ou pu s om modeling-based
app oaches a e mos ly quan i a i e o spa ial (Abadie, 2018; Ap eda
e al., 2019; Banu e al., 2014; Bo is e al., 2016; Casal-Campos e al.,
2015; K. Chen e al., 2017; X. Chen e al., 2021; A. Chu e al., 2017;
Dubey e al., 2021; El-Fadel & Ghanimeh, 2013; Hemma i e al., 2021;
K ummenaue e al., 2021; Manocha & Babo ic, 2017; Pa and ash &
Chang, 2016; Pa k e al., 2021; Pa kinson e al., 2016; Roha , Flacke,
e al., 2019; Sampson e al., 2016; Te ama e al., 2019; U ich & Rauch,
2014; Wol e al., 2020; Xu e al., 2021; Yan, Li, Wang, Ge, & Zhang,
2016; Zhu e al., 2020), al hough some s udies combine quan i ied o
spa ialized p ojec ions wi h quali a i e na a i es o po en ial u u es
(Bo is e al., 2016; Manocha & Babo ic, 2017).
4.3. Use o socio-economic p ojec ions h oughou he adap a ion
planning p ocess
The esul s o his e iew sugges ha he applica ion o socio-
economic p ojec ions has so a limi ed o h ee key s ages o he
u ban adap a ion planning p ocess: assessing clima e change isks and
ulne abili ies, iden i ying adap a ion op ions, and assessing and
selec ing adap a ion op ions (see Table 4).
E idence sugges s ha socio-economic p ojec ions a e p ima ily
used a he clima e change isk and ulne abili y assessmen s age. A
his planning s age, socio-economic scena ios can acili a e iden i ica-
ion o local isks and assessmen o u u e ulne abili y a an u ban
scale (Bi kmann e al., 2020, 2021; A. Chu e al., 2017; Meye e al.,
2019; Yan e al., 2016). Socio-economic p ojec ions can enhance a
mul i ace ed unde s anding o isk and ulne abili y in u ban con ex s
Table 3
U ban adap a ion li e a u e using modeling-based scena io de elopmen o de elop socio-economic p ojec ions. No e 1: Some li e a u e uses mul iple me hods o
scena io de elopmen and is he e o e ca ego ized mo e han once. No e 2: SSP: Sha ed Socio-Economic Pa hway, SRES: Special Repo on Emissions Scena ios. See
SM2 o u he de ails.
Type Me hods (#) Use o SSPs/SRES (#) Scena io Ou pu (#) Sou ces (#)
Modeling-based scena io de elopmen Downscaling (12) Yes (12)
No (0)
Quali a i e (1)
Quan i a i e (12)
Spa ial (9)
(12)
P edic i e/s a is ical modeling (13) Yes (4)
No (9)
Quali a i e (0)
Quan i a i e (13)
Spa ial (8)
(13)
Adap a ion pa hway modeling (2) Yes (0)
No (2)
Quali a i e (1)
Quan i a i e (2)
Spa ial (1)
(2)
Table 4
Use o Socio-Economic P ojec ions h oughou he U ban Adap a ion Planning
P ocess. No e: some li e a u e uses socio-economic p ojec ions a mul iple s ages
o he planning p ocess and is he e o e ca ego ized mo e han once. See SM2 o
ull ca ego iza ion o li e a u e.
Planning S age Sou ces (#)
P epa ing he g ound o adap a ion (0)
Assessing clima e change isks and ulne abili ies (32)
Iden i ying adap a ion op ions (7)
Assessing and selec ing adap a ion op ions (10)
Implemen ing adap a ion (0)
Adap a ion moni o ing, e alua ion and lea ning (0)
M. P all e al.
Habi a In e na ional 142 (2023) 102946
7
by enabling dynamic analysis o human, economic, social, cul u al and
ecological sys ems ac oss empo al and spa ial scales (Ronco e al.,
2014). A coupled app oach o modeling u u e socio-economic and
clima e scena ios enables cons an moni o ing o isk and ulne abili y
in esponse o a wide ange o po en ial changes (Ap eda e al., 2019;
Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021). Socio-economic p ojec ions can also be
used o isualize desi able u u es and can ac as a decision-suppo ool
o guide s a egic planning and policy making on adap a ion. Pa ici-
pa o y scena io-building app oaches can help s akeholde s isualize
bo h desi able and undesi able u u es which can be use ul in iden i ying
adap a ion objec i es and can se e as a s a ing poin o backcas ing
possible pa hways owa ds desi ed u u e isions (Bi kmann e al., 2021;
Ciumasu, 2013; Huang e al., 2011; Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021).
When iden i ying and selec ing adap a ion op ions, socio-economic
p ojec ions can be used o de elop obus , lexible, and low- eg e
adap a ion s a egies ha pe o m well unde mul iple u u es (Ju gi-
le ich e al., 2021; Manocha & Babo ic, 2017; Roha e al., 2021; Roha ,
Wilhelmi, e al., 2019; U ich & Rauch, 2014). Scena io-based modeling
app oaches can help o iden i y p io i y a eas o adap a ion in-
e en ions (Bi kmann e al., 2021; K. Chen e al., 2017; Dubey e al.,
2021; Manocha & Babo ic, 2017; Peng & Li, 2021; Wol e al., 2020).
Scena io app oaches also enable pe o mance assessmen o clima e
adap i e design solu ions unde mul iple u u e de elopmen and
clima e condi ions (Ap eda e al., 2019; Egge & Mau e , 2015; Hem-
ma i e al., 2021; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Manocha & Babo ic, 2017;
Sampson e al., 2016). Such pe o mance assessmen can p o ide a
s aigh o wa d me hod o selec ing adap a ion op ions based on
anking o solu ions acco ding o hei abili y o educe u u e isk and
ulne abili y unde a wide ange o po en ial de elopmen and clima e
pa hways (Manocha & Babo ic, 2017; Wan e al., 2020). This can
con ibu e o an unde s anding o he cos s and bene i s o di e en
adap a ion solu ions and can help o examine adeo s and p e en
maladap a ion (Hemma i e al., 2021; Ju gile ich e al., 2021).
4.4. Challenges and limi a ions o using socio-economic p ojec ions in
u ban adap a ion planning
A numbe o challenges exis when u ilizing socio-economic p o-
jec ions in u ban adap a ion planning. Fi s , socio-economic p ojec ions
a e inhe en ly unce ain (Ciumasu, 2013; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Pa k
e al., 2021; Roha , Flacke, e al., 2019; U ich & Rauch, 2014) and he
quali y o scena io-based app oaches depends closely on he assump-
ions used which o en u n ou o be un ealis ic (Ciumasu, 2013; U ich
& Rauch, 2014). In an u ban con ex , he inhe en unce ain y o p o-
jec ions is exace ba ed due o he complex na u e o u ban sys ems (A.
Chu e al., 2017).
Second, some exis ing socio-economic p ojec ions such as he SSPs
a e no useable a an u ban scale. The SSPs we e concep ualized a a
global scale and he e o e lack he speci ici y necessa y o unde s and
spa ial pa e ns o local socio-economic de elopmen (Bi kmann e al.,
2021; Meye e al., 2019; Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021; Roha , Wil-
helmi, e al., 2019; Xu e al., 2021). This makes downscaling SSPs o an
u ban scale challenging and means ha he e is a lack o u ban scale
p ojec ions consis en wi h global SSPs (Roha , Wilhelmi, e al., 2019).
Thi d, quan i a i e socio-economic p ojec ions a e di icul o apply
in da a poo en i onmen s (Roha , Flacke, e al., 2019). Local quan i-
a i e socio-economic da a is o en sca ce in many con ex s which means
ha scena ios a e he e o e highly simpli ied depic ions o u u e
socio-economic de elopmen and ulne abili y (Bi kmann e al., 2020,
2021; Roha , Flacke, e al., 2019; Wol e al., 2020). The e is also o en a
empo al misma ch in socio-economic and clima e da a, wi h local
socio-economic da a o en only a ailable on imescales inconsis en wi h
global clima e scena ios (Bi kmann e al., 2020; Wol e al., 2020).
Finally, while using mul iple knowledges and pa icipa o y ech-
niques is ecommended, bo om-up and pa icipa o y scena io de el-
opmen app oaches can be ime consuming and esou ce in ensi e.
Likewise, he lack o a common me hodology o bo om-up scena io
de elopmen limi s compa ison ac oss s udies (Reimann, Volls ed ,
e al., 2021). This challenge can be pa ially o e come by using global
SSPs as bounda y condi ions o local scena io p oduc ion. Howe e ,
his may also be de imen al as i can limi c ea i i y and esul in sce-
na ios ha oo closely mi o global p ojec ions (Reimann, Volls ed ,
e al., 2021).
4.5. Recommenda ions o u u e use o socio-economic p ojec ions in
u ban adap a ion planning
Fi s , scena io app oaches should mo e closely e lec locally speci ic
ends. Fu he esea ch should ocus on de eloping modeling ap-
p oaches and me hodologies ha a e app op ia e a an u ban scale and
conside he local spa ial a iabili y o de elopmen ends (Bi kmann
e al., 2020, 2021; Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021; Roha , Flacke, e al.,
2019; Zhu e al., 2020). I is no su icien o simply downscale
socio-economic da a om a na ional o global scale (Bi kmann e al.,
2021; Egge & Mau e , 2015). The e is a need o de elop case-speci ic
scena ios in e e y u ban con ex o e ec i ely cap u e locally-speci ic
de elopmen ends and needs.
Second, u u e esea ch should wo k owa ds including mo e
de ailed socio-economic da a in scena io de elopmen app oaches.
Including a wide ange o demog aphic indica o s such as age, sex,
po e y, income, ace, and educa ion alongside da a on heal h, land use,
and biodi e si y can enhance he abili y o scena io assessmen s o
assess u u e ulne abili y and adap i e capaci y in complex u ban
sys ems (A. Chu e al., 2017; Peng & Li, 2021; Reimann, Jones, e al.,
2021; Roha , Wilhelmi, e al., 2019; Te ama e al., 2019).
Thi d, despi e he necessi y o de eloping locally-speci ic scena ios
using u ban scale da a, i is s ill bene icial o main ain he consis ency o
local p ojec ions wi h global SSPs. U ilizing he SSPs as bounda y con-
di ions o ‘mega ends’ o u ban scena io de elopmen enables com-
pa ison be ween mul iple u ban scena io applica ions and acili a es an
unde s anding o he in e linkages be ween local and global socio-
economic de elopmen pa e ns (Pa k e al., 2021; Reimann, Volls ed ,
e al., 2021; Roha , Wilhelmi, e al., 2019). While he li e a u e e iewed
a gues ha ensu ing local-global consis ency is key, i may be necessa y
o de elop a wide ange o po en ial de elopmen pa hways han hose
cu en ly cap u ed by he SSPs. This would enable isualiza ion o
mul iple po en ial a enues o sus ainabili y beyond he globalized and
g ow h-cen e ed scena ios pu o h by he i e exis ing SSP na a i es
(Kamei e al., 2021).
Fou h, o ensu e he ele ance o socio-economic p ojec ions o
con ex -based adap a ion planning, u u e u ban scena io applica ions
should ake a pa icipa o y app oach by including s akeholde s in he
en i e p ocess. Local s akeholde inpu du ing scena io de elopmen is
c i ical o ensu e he ele ance and c edibili y o scena ios and p omo e
local owne ship (Li e al., 2017; Meye e al., 2019; Reimann, Volls ed ,
e al., 2021; Roha e al., 2021; Roha , Wilhelmi, e al., 2019). Howe e ,
i is impo an o no e ha pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen ap-
p oaches can be challenging. I is he e o e key o u ilize ca e ully
designed me hodologies ha ensu e s akeholde s ha e su icien ime o
amilia ize hemsel es wi h scena io de elopmen , es ablish clea oles
o s akeholde s in he scena io c ea ion p ocess, and p omo e good
communica ion be ween s akeholde s and esea che s (Li e al., 2017;
Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021).
Finally, u u e esea ch should mo e explici ly explo e how o bes
u ilize socio-economic scena io in o ma ion in u ban adap a ion plan-
ning and go e nance (Ju gile ich e al., 2021). U ban socio-economic
p ojec ions could be used o u he explo e ulne abili y dynamics,
assess he cos s and bene i s o di e en adap a ion op ions, iden i y
adeo s be ween adap a ion and mi iga ion, and in es iga e malad-
ap a ion in u ban adap a ion planning and policy making (Ju gile ich
e al., 2021; Roha e al., 2021; Roha , Flacke, e al., 2019).
M. P all e al.
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8
4.6. Recommenda ions o u u e use o socio-economic p ojec ions o
suppo u ban clima e jus ice
While he connec ion is unequi ocal, none o he li e a u e e iewed
on socio-economic p ojec ions and u ban CCA planning explici ly
men ions equi y o jus ice in ela ion o socio-economic p ojec ions o
scena ios. Howe e , some s udies do e e o socio-economic p ojec ions
as a ool o enhance unde s anding o u u e ulne abili y and adap i e
capaci y (Bi kmann e al., 2020, 2021; A. Chu e al., 2017; Ciumasu,
2013; Ju gile ich e al., 2021; Meye e al., 2019; Peng & Li, 2021;
Sampson e al., 2016), concep s ha a e a guably closely ied o jus ice.
5. Discussion
5.1. The limi ed applica ion o socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban
adap a ion planning
Despi e he impo ance o conside ing u u e socio-economic de el-
opmen in adap a ion decision-making, speci ic li e a u e on socio-
economic p ojec ions in u ban CCA has only eme ged ecen ly and e-
mains ela i ely unde eloped. In ou s udy, only 41 a icles on u ban
adap a ion a e ound o conside socio-economic p ojec ions and no
s udies ac i ely connec socio-economic p ojec ions o u ban clima e
jus ice. When u ban adap a ion esea ch does conside socio-economic
scena ios, p ojec ions a e de eloped ei he h ough pa icipa o y ap-
p oaches ha engage s akeholde s in wo kshops, consul a ion, o
pa icipa o y mapping o h ough modeling-based app oaches ha u i-
lize downscaling o p edic i e and s a is ical modeling o gene a e
u u e scena ios. The highe adop ion o modeling-based app oaches
could be linked o he ise o neolibe al o ms o clima e u banism
whe ein u ban clima e ac ion p ima ily a o s echnoc a ic expe ise
and quan i a i e da a (Robin & Cas ´
an B o o, 2021).
Ou esul s poin ou ha socio-economic p ojec ions a e o en only
used a one s age o he planning p ocess, wi h isk and ulne abili y
assessmen being he mos common phase du ing which o apply u u e
socio-economic in o ma ion. In gene al, his e iew indica es ha u ban
adap a ion esea ch does no pay su icien a en ion o socio-economic
p ojec ions as a ool o p epa e he g ound o adap a ion, implemen
adap a ion, o moni o and e alua e adap a ion in e en ions. This
could be a missed oppo uni y, especially in ela ion o moni o ing and
e alua ion p ocesses (Fo d & Be ang-Fo d, 2016; Olazabal e al., 2019;
O o, G¨
op e , & Thieken, 2021) ha need o ack how socio-economic
de elopmen ends cons an ly shi alongside local adap a ion needs
(Wes man e al., 2022). In eg a ed acking o he en i onmen al, social,
and economic consequences o adap a ion is one example o he o ms o
in e disciplina y u ban go e nance ha will be c i ical o enable e ec-
i e esponses o he ‘compound u ban c ises’ ha ou ci ies will ace as
u ban clima es and socio-economic de elopmen pa hways shi in o he
u u e (Wes man e al., 2022). Likewise, in eg a ing socio-economic
p ojec ions in he moni o ing and e alua ion o adap a ion migh be a
e y help ul ool o iden i y po en ial maladap a ions (E iksen e al.,
2021).
The limi ed discussion on he use and applicabili y o socio-economic
p ojec ions in u ban adap a ion li e a u e o da e could be due o he
challenges wi h de eloping and applying p ojec ions in ci ies due o he
unsui abili y o global socio-economic p ojec ions o use a an u ban
scale. Due o he local speci ici y o de elopmen ends, app oaches ha
a emp o downscale he SSPs o a local scale isk o e looking local
condi ions ha can impac he se e i y o isk and he po en ial o
adap a ion (F ame, Law ence, Ausseil, Reisinge , & Daigneaul , 2018).
Limi ed applica ion o socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban adap a ion
esea ch could also s em om a lack o local da a, a lack o know-how o
collec app op ia e da a, di icul y in measu ing ce ain indica o s o
socio-economic de elopmen , and he challenges o p oducing local
bo om-up scena ios.
Wha e e he eason o he somewha limi ed applica ion o socio-
economic p ojec ions o da e, he li e a u e (Bi kmann e al., 2020;
Ciumasu, 2013; Huang e al., 2011; Reimann, Volls ed , e al., 2021;
Roha e al., 2021; Roha , Flacke, e al., 2019; Te ama e al., 2019)
clea ly poin s o he u gen need o be e inco po a e u u e
socio-economic da a in o u ban adap a ion esea ch due o he deep
unce ain y o u u e clima e and de elopmen ajec o ies and, pe haps
mo e no ably, due o he po en ial endency o socio-economic changes
o ha e a g ea e in luence on u u e u ban isk and ulne abili y han
clima ic changes.
5.2. The po en ial o socio-economic p ojec ions o p omo e u ban
clima e jus ice
Despi e he cu en lack o speci ic a en ion o he connec ion be-
ween socio-economic p ojec ions and u ban clima e jus ice, he he-
ma ic analysis o he li e a u e illus a es ha u ilizing socio-economic
scena ios in u ban adap a ion planning could ha e he po en ial o
p omo e u ban clima e jus ice in se e al ways. Al hough he li e a u e
does no explici ly connec he concep s o jus ice and socio-economic
p ojec ions, he ways in which socio-economic p ojec ions a e applied
in adap a ion li e a u e o en align closely wi h p inciples o suppo ing
u ban clima e jus ice. Th ough an in e p e a ion o he indings o ou
e iew, we summa ize his in Fig. 3.
Fi s , socio-economic p ojec ions could be used as a ool o ensu e
dis ibu i e jus ice in ci ies i socio-economic scena io analysis is used o
selec adap a ion op ions ha p o ide equi able access o u ban space
and se ices o all ac oss mul iple po en ial u u es. Socio-economic
p ojec ions o e a new o m o da a ha can help decision-make s
analyze dis ibu i e jus ice ou comes and make choices ha maximize
jus ice bo h oday and in u u e de elopmen scena ios. App oaches ha
aim o de elop adap a ion pa hways o selec obus , no- eg e , and
lexible solu ions could be especially bene icial in p omo ing jus ice as
hese s a egies could be egula ly adjus ed o imp o e jus ice ou comes
in he u u e. Flexible, no- eg e solu ions lie in con as o he p o ec i e
solu ions ha we o en see implemen ed oday. A shi owa ds imple-
men ing lexible adap a ion could help secu e jus ice ou comes as hese
solu ions allow po en ial o change as bo h clima e u u e and socio-
economic de elopmen pa hways un old.
Second, pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen app oaches could ha e
he po en ial o s eng hen p ocedu al jus ice. Pa icipa o y app oaches
ha embed s akeholde pa icipa ion in he en i e p ocess o scena io
design could be pu sued o ensu e ha pa icipa ion is p esen a e e y
s age o he planning and decision-making p ocess. Pa icipa o y socio-
economic scena io analysis may be well sui ed o p omo ing p ocedu al
jus ice because i embeds pa icipa ion o s akeholde s and ci izens no
only in he selec ion o desi able adap a ion solu ions bu in a much
mo e undamen al p ocess o de ining which po en ial u u es o plan
o . This ype o in eg a ed s akeholde pa icipa ion is a ely seen in
adap a ion planning p ocesses oday, whe e he no m is shallow and
okenis ic pa icipa ion ha does no ex end o he en i e planning
p ocess. Fu he mo e, scena io de elopmen app oaches ha s i e o
ensu e b oad pa icipa ion beyond adi ional ‘expe ’ s akeholde
pa icipa ion s a egies could ha e he po en ial o ele a e oices ha
a e o en no hea d in he con ex o decision making on adap a ion. This
could expand he cu en con ex o s akeholde pa icipa ion which
o en only suceeeds in including s akeholde s ha al eady ha e powe
and oice in decision making p ocesses, despi e a emp s a b oad and
di e se inclusion. Pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen app oaches a e
especially c i ical o ensu e jus and e ec i e adpa a ion in local con-
ex s whe e socio-economic de elopmen ajec o ies a e guided by
in o mal p ocesses such as he expansion o in o mal se lemen s ha
may no be well unde s ood by ‘expe ’ s akeholde s (Pandey, Yangchen,
Thiyaha ajan, & Kishwan, 2023).
Thi d, ecogni ion and es o a i e jus ice could be p omo ed h ough
he use o socio-economic p ojec ions o aid in he selec ion o adap a-
ion op ions ha explici ly p io i ize ulne able g oups. Socio-economic
M. P all e al.
Habi a In e na ional 142 (2023) 102946
9
scena io analysis could also po en ially help o be e assess he in e -
sec ionali y o u ban clima e jus ice wi h o he u ban jus ice issues.
Coupled socio-economic and clima e p ojec ions in eg a e a wide ange
o indica o s and can hus enablea comp ehensi e analysis o u u e
ulne abili y. The e o e, socio-economic p ojec ions could help o
acili a e he iden i ica ion o d i e s o injus ice ac oss spa ial and
empo al scales and be ween possible u u e scena ios. Socio-economic
p ojec ions can hus be seen as a ool o explici ly analyze and add ess
oo causes o ulne abili y and injus ice.
While socio-economic p ojec ions show g ea po en ial o p omo -
ing all pilla s o u ban clima e jus ice, no all scena io de elopmen and
applica ion app oaches a e equally use ul o ensu ing jus adap a ion
ac oss all s ages o planning. To a oid maladap a ion and p omo e jus
u ban ansi ions, socio-economic p ojec ion applica ions should
explici ly s i e o ensu e dis ibu i e, p ocedu al, ecogni ion and
es o a i e jus ice. Jus ice should be a key conside a ion when applying
socio-economic p ojec ions a each s age o he u ban adap a ion plan-
ning p ocess. Table 5 p o ides a amewo k o using socio-economic
p ojec ions in u ban adap a ion o p omo e jus ice, speci ically ou -
lining ac ions ha decision make s can ake a each s age o he planning
p ocess o ensu e he jus applica ion o socio-economic p ojec ions.
When p epa ing he g ound o adap a ion, p ocedu al jus ice can be
suppo ed by conduc ing a b oad and inclusi e s akeholde analysis and
iden i ying key sou ces o local knowledge. A pa icipa o y socio-
economic scena io p ocess suppo s conside a ion o p ocedu al jus ice
ea ly in he planning p ocess. When assessing clima e change isks and
ulne abili ies, an app oach g ounded in socio-economic scena io
analysis has he capaci y o suppo p ocedu al jus ice ou comes by
closely engaging s akeholde s in de ining u u e scena ios and iden i-
ying u u e needs and p io i ies. A collabo a i e p ocess o u u e
ulne abili y analysis can also suppo dis ibu i e jus ice by making
pa e ns o ulne abili y and isk spa ially explici in bo h cu en and
u u e scena ios. When iden i ying adap a ion op ions and assessing and
selec ing adap a ion op ions, decision make s will be able o in eg a e
indings om he pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen p ocess in ela ion
o local needs, desi ed u u es, and pa e ns o his o ical injus ice. The
close conside a ion o local pe spec i es when selec ing adap a ion op-
ions can, o example, a oid inc eased ulne abili y as a esul o
clima e gen i ica ion ha is so o en associa ed wi h implemen a ion o
g een in as uc u e and na u e based solu ions (Rice, Cohen, Long, &
Ju je ich, 2020; Shok y, Connolly, & Anguelo ski, 2020). Finally, when
implemen ing adap a ion and ca ying ou moni o ing and e alua ion
p ocesses, socio-economic scena io da a can p o ide a means o egu-
la ly e-e alua e he socio-economic e icacy o solu ions. This can make
adap a ion decision making mo e dynamic ac oss bo h haza d and
ulne abili y dimensions, hus suppo ing p oac i e conside a ion o
dis ibu i e and p ocedu al jus ice.
I is impo an o no e ha his amewo k aims o inspi e scien is s
and p ac i ione s and does no in end o ac as a one-size- i s-all guide
o applying socio-economic p ojec ions in suppo o u ban clima e
jus ice. Each local con ex is unique, and ac ions need o be con ex u-
alized o bes espond o local needs o cope wi h con ex -speci ic
inancial, policy and planning cons ain s ha a e di e se and a y
ac oss ci ies. Combining he amewo k wi h o he concep s such as
Clima e Resilien De elopmen Pa hways (CRDP) (Roy e al., 2018)
could p o e use ul, and may add ess one o mo e o he knowledge gaps
ha exis in ela ion o clima e esilien de elopmen (CRD). Acco ding
o Schippe e al. (2022, p. 2732) hese include (bu a e no limi ed o)
“how di e en CRD pa hways can be designed such ha hey illus a e
oppo uni ies o he p ac ical pu sui o CRD in a manne consis en
wi h p inciples o inclusion, equi y and jus ice”, and “bes p ac ices o
a oiding maladap a ion and ensu ing ha adap a ion in e en ions a e
designed so hey do no exace ba e ulne abili y o clima e change o
suppo CRD”. They u he conclude ha dis ibu i e and p ocedu al
jus ice a e key c i e ia o e alua ing clima e ac ion gene ally and CRD
speci ically, and ha ailu e o do so may hinde a he han accele a e
clima e esilien de elopmen . I is also impo an o no e ha u u e
o ien ed planning app oaches ha s i e o combine clima e and
socio-economic scena ios in pu sui o jus ice should no unde es ima e
he ole o colonial pas s in shaping adap i e capaci y. Ca e ul a en ion
mus be paid o how socio-economic pas s shape socio-economic u u es
(Robinson, Douma, Poo e, & Singh, 2023).
6. Conclusions
We he e p esen an ini ial explo a ion on how exis ing u ban adap-
a ion li e a u e discusses use o socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban
adap a ion planning and policy and hei capaci y o ensu e clima e
jus ice. Six key hemes eme ge om he li e a u e: (1) jus i ica ions o
using socio-economic p ojec ions in u ban clima e change adap a ion,
(2) ypes o socio-economic p ojec ions and me hods o scena io
de elopmen , (3) hei use h oughou he adap a ion planning p ocess,
(4) challenges and limi a ions, (5) ecommenda ions o u he esea ch
on p ojec ions in u ban adap a ion planning, and (6) socio-economic
p ojec ions as a ool o p omo e u ban clima e jus ice. While he po-
en ial o socio-economic p ojec ions as a ool o enable mo e jus ice-
cen e ed u ban adap a ion planning is signi ican , none o he li e a-
u e e iewed speci ically discussed his. Ou analysis, howe e , o e s a
ounda ion o depic a p elimina y amewo k on how his can be done
in u ban adap a ion planning p ac ice by iden i ying speci ic ac i i ies
whe e socio-economic p ojec ions ha e an impo an ole and connec ed
jus ice elemen s.
To con inue explo ing pa hways o a mo e inclusi e da a-d i en
u ban adap a ion planning, we ecommend u he esea ch in ou
a eas: (1) local da a a ailabili y and di e si y o e lec jus ice
complexi y, (2) local-global consis ency o socio-economic scena io da a
Fig. 3. Po en ial o socio-economic p ojec ions o p omo e u ban clima e jus ice.
M. P all e al.
