Geopoli ics_Iceland 1
Apl. P o . D . D . K. Saalbach
Geos a egy and Geopoli ics
Depa men 1
49069 Osnab ueck
The Geopoli ics o Iceland
02 Ma ch 2026
Summa y
This wo king pape analyzes he geopoli ics o Iceland ha co e s an a ea o 103,125 km² nea
he A c ic Ci cle. In 2024, Iceland had 364,036 inhabi an s. The main geopoli ical p oblem o
Iceland is i s cen al loca ion in he G eenland-Iceland-Uni ed Kingdom (GIUK) gap in he
de ense agains Russia, i s ole as p o ide in he Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC be ween
he Uni ed S a es and Eu ope and i s po en ial u u e as ade cen e o he new shipping
ou es. On he o he hand, i is a small s a e wi hou an own a my. Fo his eason, he aim o
he Icelandic geopoli ics is o be embedded in and p o ec ed by ins i u ional a angemen s. In
he mili a y sec o , his is achie ed by he bila e al ag eemen wi h he Uni ed S a es om 1951
who gi e a secu i y gua an ee o Iceland. Iceland p o ides hos suppo o NATO pa ne s and
exe cises, as needed. Iceland is economically closely linked o Eu ope as membe o he
Eu opean F ee T ade A ea EFTA and he Eu opean Economic A ea EEA which is he
coope a ion be ween EFTA and he Eu opean Union EU. As o he No dic S a es, Iceland is
engaged in egional coope a ions, he A c ic Council, he No dic Council and he Wes -No dic
Council. Iceland is s ongly engaged in sea ch and escue SAR ope a ions wi h i s Coas Gua d
o an a ea o 1.9 million km².
S a egic issues o Iceland a e he A c ic and Secu i y Policy, po en ial new shipping ou es
due o he mel ing ice, he GIUK and GIN gap, he de ense o Sea Lines o Communica ion
SLOC and agains cybe h ea s and he EU Membe ship. The wo k and he expe ience in he
A c ic Council we e he basis o Iceland’s i s and second A c ic Policy om 2011 and 2021
wi h he ou key a eas in e na ional coope a ion, clima e change, secu i y, and de ense and
A c ic esea ch. Rega ding he shipping ou es, he Cen al Sea Rou e (TSR) could make
Iceland o a e y p omising place o a la ge po .
Whe e he A c ic mee s wi h he A lan ic, he e a e possible gaps (sea passages o he
Russians) known by NATO as GIUK (G eenland, Iceland, and Uni ed Kingdom) and GIN
(G eenland, Iceland, and No way). As Iceland is in he cen e o GIUK and GIN gaps, he NATO
ca ies ou ai -su eillance missions om Iceland. Ai policing om Iceland is also a pa o he
2026 Exe cise A c ic Sen y. Based on he a ailabili y o cheap ene gy esul ing om he high
geologic ac i i y in Iceland, he coun y has a apidly g owing da a cen e indus y. The coun y
hos s pi o al digi al in as uc u es and deep-sea cables o c ucial impo ance o NATO and
he b oade Eu o-A lan ic egion. Also, Iceland’s sa elli e communica ion in as uc u e,
includes se e al essen ial g ound s a ions o he NATO. Fo his eason, Iceland is a a ge
o malicious cybe ac i i ies. Iceland plans o eac i a e he EU accession p ocedu e which
could be a majo s a egic gain o he Eu opean Union in he A c ic Region. Howe e , an EU
membe ship s ill aces majo obs acles. Iceland al eady has he Hoy ík Ag eemen wi h he
Fa oe Islands ha es ablished a single economic a ea. Fu he mo e, he e is a ee ade
ag eemen (FTA) wi h China since 2013. I bo h ag eemen s a e no suspended, an EU
accession o Iceland would ac ually include he non-EU membe Fa oe Islands in o he EU
and open a ee- ade doo o China in o he EU. In summa y, while Iceland’s geopoli ics was
success ul in ensu ing mili a y and economic s abili y by ag eemen s wi h he Uni ed S a es
and Eu ope, se e al s a egic challenges need o be esol ed in he nea u u e.
Geopoli ics_Iceland 2
Con en
1 The Geopoli ics o Iceland .................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 In oduc ion ................................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 The Map o Iceland ........................................................................................................................ 3
1.3 His o y ........................................................................................................................................... 4
2 Ins i u ional F amewo k ....................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 O e iew ........................................................................................................................................ 4
2.2 Mili a y .......................................................................................................................................... 5
2.3 Economy ........................................................................................................................................ 5
2.4 Regional Coope a ion .................................................................................................................... 6
3. S a egic Issues .................................................................................................................................... 8
3.1 Iceland’s A c ic and Secu i y Policy ............................................................................................... 8
3.2 New Shipping Rou es ..................................................................................................................... 8
3.3 The GIUK and GIN Gaps ................................................................................................................. 9
3.4 Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC and Cybe Th ea s .................................................................. 9
3.5 EU Membe ship ............................................................................................................................. 9
4 Summa y ............................................................................................................................................. 10
5 Re e ences .......................................................................................................................................... 11
Geopoli ics_Iceland 3
1 The Geopoli ics o Iceland
1.1 In oduc ion
This wo king pape analyzes he geopoli ics o Iceland ha co e s an a ea o 103,125 km² nea
he A c ic Ci cle. In 2024, Iceland had 364,036 inhabi an s. The main geopoli ical p oblem o
Iceland is i s cen al loca ion in he G eenland-Iceland-Uni ed Kingdom (GIUK) gap in he
de ense agains Russia, i s ole as p o ide in he Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC be ween
he Uni ed S a es and Eu ope and i s po en ial u u e as ade cen e o he new shipping ou es.
On he o he hand, i is a small s a e wi hou an own a my. Fo his eason, he aim o he
Icelandic geopoli ics is o be embedded in and p o ec ed by ins i u ional a angemen s.
1.2 The Map o Iceland
Map o Iceland
Sou ce/Au ho : File: Iceland posi ion144.png- Wikimedia Commons
Da e Decembe 2007
Au ho s: Lence + Ulamm
No changes made he e.
Page URL: h ps://commons.wikimedia.o g/wiki/File:Iceland_ posi ion144.png
License: C ea i e Commons A ibu ion-Sha e Alike 3.0 Unpo ed ia Wikimedia Commons
Link o license: h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en
Iceland co e s an a ea o 103,125 km² nea he A c ic Ci cle, he egion abo e 66o34’ la i ude
No h. Eigh A c ic S a es ha e e i o y in he A c ic Ci cle: Uni ed S a es (Alaska), Russia,
Canada, Iceland, Denma k (G eenland), No way, Sweden, and Finland. I s geologic loca ion
on he bo de o he Ame ican and Eu opean con inen al c us explains he high geologic
ac i i y which p o ides ich ene gy sou ces. I is e y close o he A c ic Ci cle, bu he small
Geopoli ics_Iceland 4
G imsey Island 25 kilome e s no h o Iceland is pa ially wi hin he A c ic Ci cle
1
. The
ollowing map shows he loca ion o Iceland be ween he Uni ed Kingdom and G eenland
which oge he o m he GIUK gap whe e he Russian No he n could mo e in o he A lan ic
Ocean. No h o GIUK, he Russian lee needs o pass he GIN (G eenland-Iceland-No way)
egion i s .
1.3 His o y
The i s Icelandic S a e was o med in 930 and exis ed o mo e han 300 yea s. In 1286,
Iceland came unde con ol o No way. As No way and Denma k we e uni ed in he Union o
Kalma in 1380, i belonged om he e on o Denma k and s ayed wi h Denma k when he
Union o No way and Denma k ended in 1814. In 1845, he old Icelandic pa liamen , he
Al hing, was es o ed, and in 1874 he King o Denma k g an ed Iceland a sepa a e
cons i u ion
2
. In 1904, Iceland was gi en au onomy by a Home Rule, and in 1918, Iceland and
Denma k o med a Union which ga e Iceland so e eign y excep o he o eign ela ions which
we e s ill handled by Denma k. The King o Denma k was also King o Iceland. The ini ial
du a ion o his ag eemen was 25 yea s
3
, i.e., un il 1943, bu in 1940, Denma k was occupied
by Ge many and he Uni ed Kingdom decided o occupy he Fa oe Islands and Iceland be o e
Ge many could do. In 1941, he B i ish oops handed Iceland o e o he Uni ed S a es which
al eady had occupied G eenland. In Augus 1944, Iceland decla ed i s independence and
became a epublic un il oday. Iceland has a Coas Gua d, bu no a my. Iceland was a ounding
membe o he NATO in 1949 and made a de ense ag eemen in 1951 wi h he US Iceland
De ense Fo ce on he base in Ke la ík. In 2006, he Uni ed S a es decided o wi hd aw agains
Iceland's will
4
. Bu he 2006 amendmen o he 1951 ag eemen cla i ied ha he Uni ed S a es
could s ill use and e u n o hei base and Iceland also allows NATO membe s o conduc
NATO ope a ions om Iceland, as needed
5
. Following a inancial c isis in 2007/2008 wi h
bank up cy o he h ee la ges banks, a massi e de alua ion o he Icelandic cu ency and a
c edi c isis
6
, Iceland decided o apply o EU membe ship, which led o he s a o accession
nego ia ions in 2011. In 2013, he Icelandic go e nmen decided agains joining he EU due o
dispu ed ishing quo as and concluded a ee ade ag eemen wi h China
7
. In esponse o he
g owing ins abili y o he global poli ics
8
, Iceland decided in 2024 o eac i a e he EU
accession nego ia ions by a e e endum in 2027
9
which now will be done al eady in Augus
2026 which could be a majo s a egic gain o he Eu opean Union in he A c ic Region.
2 Ins i u ional F amewo k
2.1 O e iew
The main geopoli ical p oblem o Iceland is i s cen al loca ion in he G eenland-Iceland-
Uni ed Kingdom (GIUK) gap in he de ense agains Russia, i s ole as p o ide in he Sea Lines
o Communica ion SLOC be ween he Uni ed S a es and Eu ope and i s po en ial u u e as ade
cen e o he new shipping ou es. On he o he hand, i is a small s a e wi hou an own a my.
Fo his eason, he aim o he Icelandic geopoli ics is o be embedded in and p o ec ed by
ins i u ional a angemen s. In he mili a y sec o , his is achie ed by a bila e al ag eemen wi h
1
O’Rou ke e al. 2025
2
LSE 2025
3
LSE 2025
4
G eenland Commi ee 2020
5
S a e Depa men 2006
6
Halldo sson/Gyl i 2010
7
Dams e al. 2020
8
She alo ich 2026
9
Hegedüs 2026, Lecle c 2026
Geopoli ics_Iceland 5
he Uni ed S a es who gi e a secu i y gua an ee o Iceland and Iceland p o ides hos suppo o
NATO pa ne s and exe cises, as needed
10
.
While he mili a y sec o is domina ed by he Uni ed S a es, i is economically closely linked o
Eu ope as membe o he Eu opean F ee T ade A ea EFTA and he Eu opean Economic A ea
EEA which is he coope a ion be ween EFTA and he Eu opean Union EU. Iceland is again
discussing a membe ship wi h he EU.
While Iceland iews i sel clea ly as Eu opean coun y, he opinion on he EU is highly ola ile.
In c isis si ua ions like he inancial c isis and he uns able wo ld o de o oday, he o e s a e
suppo ing an EU accession as a sa e ha en, hey could u n agains EU i he poli ical p ice
ega ding ishing and so e eign y is pe cei ed as oo high. When China was suppo i e a e
he inancial c isis, Iceland u ned o China ins ead o he EU in 2013.
As o he No dic S a es, Iceland is engaged in egional coope a ions, he A c ic Council, he
No dic Council and he Wes -No dic Council.
2.2 Mili a y
Iceland was a ounding membe o he NATO in 1949 and made a de ense ag eemen in 1951
wi h heUni ed S a es which deployed he US Iceland De ense Fo ce on he na al ai base in
Ke la ík. In 2006, he Uni ed S a es decided o wi hd aw om i s Ke la ík base agains
Iceland's will
11
, bu meanwhile, he US Depa men o De ense (DoD) es ablished he DoD
A c ic S a egy 2024
12
.
The 2006 amendmen o he 1951 ag eemen cla i ied ha he Uni ed S a es could s ill use and
e u n o he base and Iceland also allows NATO membe s o conduc NATO ope a ions om
Iceland, “as is necessa y o suppo he u u e de ense needs o Iceland and o he No h A lan ic
T ea y A ea”
13
. In July 2007, he NATO No h A lan ic Council decided o ca y ou ai -
su eillance missions om Iceland o wo o h ee weeks du a ion on a e age h ee imes a
yea
14
. Fu he mo e, he US awa ded in 2016 con ac s o upg ade Ke la ik o p o ide “a high
le el o eadiness o U.S. Ai Fo ces in Eu ope”.
15
In Feb ua y 2026, he new NATO exe cise A c ic Sen y was s a ed. The Ge man Ai Fo ce
deployed 4 igh e je s on he Ke la ik ai base o ai policing
16
.
Iceland has a domes ic police o ce and a Coas Gua d o sea ch and escue (SAR) ope a ions,
he p o ec ion o he Ke la ik Ai Base, he Ai De ense Sys ems and i s emo e ada and
communica ion si es
17
.
2.3 Economy
The Eu opean F ee T ade Associa ion (EFTA) was ounded in 1960 by Aus ia, Denma k,
No way, Po ugal, Sweden, Swi ze land, and he Uni ed Kingdom wi h he S ockholm
Con en ion which was upda ed and eplaced in 2001 by he Vaduz Con en ion.
Meanwhile, he EFTA consis s o Iceland, Liech ens ein, No way, and Swi ze land; Iceland
joined in 1970. Howe e , Iceland also had a ee ade ag eemen wi h he Eu opean Economic
Communi y (EEC) since 1972.
18
The EEC was pa o he Eu opean Communi ies (EC) which
10
Sigholm e al. 2024
11
G eenland Commi ee 2020
12
DoD 2024a
13
S a e Depa men 2006
14
Childs 2022, Dean 2023
15
Childs 2022, Dean 2023
16
Bundesweh 2026
17
Sigholm e al. 2024
18
Lecle c 2006
Geopoli ics_Iceland 6
was ans o med o he Eu opean Union (EU) in 1992. In 1992, Iceland, Liech ens ein, and
No way o med wi h he EU he Eu opean Economic A ea (EEA) which came in o o ce in
1994. The EU and he EFTA membe s con ol he EEA oge he in Join Commi ees.
19
Iceland joined a ious EU p og ams and coope a ions such as he No he n Dimension
20
. In
2021, he Eu opean Commission p esen ed an A c ic s a egy ha ocuses on A c ic p o ec ion,
sus ainable de elopmen , and in e na ional coope a ion, aiming o a mo e ac i e ole. In
o eign policy, he A c ic S a egy iden i ies he No he n Dimension and G eenland as key
p io i ies
21
. Since 2007, he No he n Dimension has been a coope a ion be ween he EU,
Russia, No way, and Iceland o he Bal ic and Ba en s Sea egion in he a eas o en i onmen ,
economy and social a ai s, anspo and logis ics, and cul u e, which was a ec ed by Uk aine
con lic
22
. Iceland is also a signa o y o he Schengen ea y and Dublin egula ion on asylum
23
.
In July 2025, he EU and Iceland signed a memo andum o unde s anding (MoU) on enhancing
coope a ion on ishe ies and ocean a ai s and also coope a e h ough he EU's Agency o he
Space P og am (EUSPA). The EU and Iceland wan o enhance hei secu i y coope a ion, bu
only complemen a y o he NATO ag eemen s
24
.
Bu a e he inancial c isis, Iceland signed a ee ade ag eemen wi h China and o he
ag eemen s, like he esea ch ag eemen s be ween he Pola Resea ch Ins i u e o China (PRIC)
and he Icelandic Cen e o Resea ch (Rannís) wi h he China-Iceland A c ic Obse a o y
(CIAO) in Ka holl.
Iceland was a ounding membe o he Asian In as uc u e In es men Bank o acili a e
pa icipa ion in he Chinese Bel and Road Ini ia i e
25
.
The Fa oe Islands ha e ee ade ag eemen s wi h se e al coun ies, bu he mos impo an is
he Hoy ík Ag eemen wi h Iceland om 2005, ha en e ed in o o ce in 2006. This ag eemen
es ablished a single economic a ea o he e i o ies o bo h coun ies, wi h ee mo emen o
goods, se ices, capi al, and pe sons
26
.
2.4 Regional Coope a ion
The A c ic Council is an impo an pla o m o Iceland. The wo k and he expe ience in he
Council we e he basis o Iceland’s i s and second A c ic Policy om 2011 and 2021.
The A c ic Council o he eigh A c ic s a es Uni ed S a es (Alaska), Russia, Canada, Iceland,
Denma k (G eenland), No way, Sweden, and Finland was ounded by he O awa Decla a ion
1996 as in e go e nmen al o um o he A c ic Region. The Council is based on consensus and
does no handle secu i y and mili a y aspec s
27
.
The Council has adop ed h ee legally-binding ag eemen s, he Ag eemen on Coope a ion on
Ae onau ical and Ma i ime Sea ch and Rescue (SAR) in he A c ic (2011), he Ag eemen on
Coope a ion on Ma ine Oil Pollu ion P epa edness and Response in he A c ic (2013), and he
Ag eemen on Enhancing In e na ional A c ic Scien i ic Coope a ion (2017)
28
. Fo secu i y
ma e s, discussion o a we e es ablished, he A c ic Secu i y Fo ces Round able (ASFR) in
19
Ál a ez López/Razauskas 2024
20
Founda ion Robe Schuman 2025
21
EC 2001
22
Ál a ez López/Razauskas 2024
23
Founda ion Robe Schuman 2025
24
Lecle c 2006
25
G eenland Commi ee 2020
26
Fa oe Go e nmen 2025
27
O’Rou ke 2024
28
B imme 2023, O’Rou ke 2024
Geopoli ics_Iceland 7
2011 and he A c ic Chie s o De ense (ACHOD) Fo um in 2012
29
. In 2016, he A c ic Coas
Gua d Fo um (ACGF) was ounded
30
.
Iceland is s ongly engaged in SAR ope a ions wi h i s Coas Gua d in he ACGF amewo k.
Iceland’s sea ch and escue a ea is 1.9 million km², mo e han wice he size o he Icelandic
exclusi e economic zone
31
. Iceland claimed an ex ended con inen al shel (ECS) in 2009 a he
esponsible Uni ed Na ions Commission on he Limi o he Con inen al Shel (CLCS) and
ecei ed a a o able ecommenda ion om he CLCS in 2016.
32
Iceland is also a membe o he o he egional coope a ions, he No dic Council and he sepa a e
Wes -No dic Council.
The Helsinki T ea y o 1962
33
is he legal basis o he No dic Coope a ion and he No dic
Council, he o icial body o No dic in e -pa liamen a y coope a ion be ween No way,
Sweden, Finland, Denma k, Iceland, and he sel -go e ned coun ies G eenland, he Fa oe
Islands, and he au onomous egion o Åland
34
. Wi hin he No dic Council o Minis e s as
pla o m in e -go e nmen al coope a ion, he Fa oe Islands, G eenland, and Åland a e also
ep esen ed, bu do no ha e o ing igh s
35
. In 2024, he Fa oe Islands and G eenland decla ed
ha hey would no longe accep hei exclusion om No dic summi s on o eign and secu i y
policy and ha hey wished o become ull membe s
36
An ag eemen was eached o conduc a
legal e iew o he Helsinki T ea y and a e ision is planned in 2026
37
. Howe e , a he end o
2025, he No dic Council c ea ed a ai accompli by amending i s ules o p ocedu e, wi hou
wai ing o he e ision o he Helsinki T ea y. E ec i e Janua y 1, 2026, G eenland, he Fa oe
Islands, and Åland became equal membe s o he P esidium and now pa icipa e equally in all
impo an decisions o he No dic Council
38
.
These de elopmen s could ha e impac on he o he egional o ganiza ion, he Wes -No dic
Council.
The Wes -No dic Council is a pa liamen a y coope a ion be ween Iceland, G eenland, and he
Fa oe Islands
39
. The Council was ounded as Wes No dic Pa liamen a ian Council o
Coope a ion in 1985, he yea when G eenland le he EU. As he Fa oe Islands we e no in
he EU as well, i was a coope a ion ou side he EU. Howe e , he e a e annual mee ings
be ween ep esen a i es o he Eu opean Pa liamen and he Wes No dic Council
40
. The
pa liamen s o he membe s send ep esen a i es o he Wes No dic Council wi h he Annual
Gene al Mee ing as mos impo an egula e en . Iceland has exp essed an inc eased in e es
o wo k mo e wi h i s neighbo s om G eenland and he Fa oe Islands
41
. As Iceland and he
Fa oe Islands al eady ha e an economic union and as bo h he Fa oe Islands and G eenland a e
looking o independence, he council could se e as a poli ical pla o m o all ac o s. Thei
s a egic key asse would be he con ol o la ge sea a eas and he ich ishing g ounds.
29
Däume 2021, Rachold 2022
30
Däume 2021
31
Iceland 2021
32
O’Rou ke e al. 2025
33
O icial ile o he No dic Council o Minis e s and No dic Council 2018
34
Åland is an au onomous and demili a ized a ea o Finland
35
Ed a dsen 2025
36
Dam 2024, Ed a dsen 2024
37
Ed a dsen 2025
38
No dic Council 2025.
39
EP 2009
40
Ál a ez López/Razauskas 2024
41
Ha s einsdó i 2025
Geopoli ics_Iceland 8
3. S a egic Issues
3.1 Iceland’s A c ic and Secu i y Policy
The A c ic Council is an impo an pla o m o Iceland. The wo k and he expe ience in he
A c ic Council we e he basis o Iceland’s i s and second A c ic Policy om 2011 and 2021.
The i s A c ic policy was c ea ed o s eng hen Iceland wi hin he A c ic Council
42
while he
second A c ic policy “Iceland’s Policy o Ma e s Conce ning he A c ic Region”
43
om
Oc obe 2021 was buil on Iceland’s 2019-2021 chai manship o he A c ic Council
44
. A special
ocus is he clima e change and he impac on he A c ic egion. The mel ing o he ice may
open new shipping ou es (Sec ion 3.2)
45
. The ou key a eas o he 2021 A c ic Policy a e
in e na ional coope a ion, clima e change, secu i y, and de ense (naming Russia and China as
po en ial isks) and A c ic esea ch.
46
In 2023, Iceland upda ed i s Na ional Secu i y Policy
47
. The aim is o ensu e Iceland’s b oad
secu i y in e es s h ough ac i e in e na ional collabo a ion also in he ma i ime a eas. The
NATO is seen as key pilla o Iceland’s de ense oge he wi h he 1951 De ense Ag eemen
be ween Iceland and he Uni ed S a es o Ame ica
48
.
3.2 New Shipping Rou es
The mel ing o ice due o he global wa ming opens h ee po en ial shipping ou es in he No h,
he No he n Sea Rou e (NSR, No heas Passage) a ound No he n Russia, he No hwes
Passage (NWP) h ough he Canadian A c ic Islands and he Cen al Sea Rou e (T anspola
Sea Rou e TSR). The new sea ou es a e cu en ly no pe manen ly ice- ee, bu a e expec ed o
be mos ly ice- ee be ween 2030 and 2040
49
. Iceland’s and China’s ocus is on he Cen a Sea
Rou e (TSR). Looking o wa d o new po en ial shipping ou es, China has plans o a la ge
shipping po in No heas Iceland. China men ioned he new sea ou es in hei A c ic Policy
om 2018
50
.
The Cen al Sea Rou e (TSR) goes h ough he cen e o he A c ic and could make Iceland o
a e y p omising place o a la ge po
51
. The No hwes Passage (NWP) goes h ough he
Canadian A c ic Islands and Canada a gues ha he NWP is in i s e i o y while he Uni ed
S a es hold he opinion ha his is an in e na ional sea ou e wi h eedom o na iga ion and
o e ligh
52
. While on he map his ou e looks sho and a ac i e, i is qui e di icul o
na iga e and meanwhile, i is ques ionable whe he he ou e is comme cially iable
53
.
In con as o he o he (s ill hypo he ical) shipping ou es, he e is a g owing ac i i y in he
No he n Sea Rou e (NSR, No heas Passage) a ound no he n Russia which is signi ican ly
sho e han he no mal Sou he n Sea Rou e SSR a ound India. Russia and China al eady
in es ed in a ious No heas Passage p ojec s o anspo gas om Sibe ia o China
54
.
42
Ha s einsdó i 2025
43
Iceland 2021
44
Dean 2023
45
Remi o So ian 2025
46
Dean 2023
47
Al hingi 2023
48
Al hingi 2023
49
G eenland Commi ee 2020
50
Iceland 2021
51
Gomes 2022
52
Gomes 2022
53
O’Rou ke e al. 2025
54
Fe nández-Mon esinos 2023
Geopoli ics_Iceland 9
3.3 The GIUK and GIN Gaps
Whe e he A c ic mee s wi h he A lan ic, he e a e possible gaps (sea passages o he Russians)
known by NATO as GIUK (G eenland, Iceland, and Uni ed Kingdom) and GIN (G eenland,
Iceland, and No way). Du ing cold wa , he NATO ou es deployed he Sound Su eillance
Sys em (SOSUS) and ma i ime pa ol ai c a s like he P-3 O ion as ea ly wa ning elemen s o
an i-subma ine wa a e (ASW)
55
. The a ea no h o Scandina ia is known as he ‘bas ion a ea’
whe e he o me So ie Union and now Russia has signi ican nuclea o ces wi h nuclea -
a med ballis ic missile subma ines (SSBNs) in an ice- ee egion wi h he Kola peninsula
56
; i
is a huge, pe manen ly ice- ee a ea
57
. The NATO base in he Fa oe Islands suppo s he so-
called bas ion de ense
58
. As Iceland is in he cen e o GIUK and GIN gaps, he NATO ca ies
ou ai -su eillance missions om Iceland o wo o h ee weeks du a ion on a e age h ee imes
a yea
59
. Ai policing om Iceland is also a pa o he 2026 Exe cise A c ic Sen y.
3.4 Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC and Cybe Th ea s
Based on he a ailabili y o cheap ene gy esul ing om he high geologic ac i i y in Iceland,
he coun y has a apidly g owing da a cen e indus y. In 2023, Iceland launched he IRIS 108
Tbps (Te abi pe second) unde sea cable sys em linking Iceland o I eland and om he e o
Eu ope. I eland has less s ic da a p o ec ion laws ha a ac many Tech companies.
Iceland hos s pi o al digi al in as uc u es and deep-sea cables o c ucial impo ance o NATO
and he b oade Eu o-A lan ic egion
60
. Also, Iceland’s sa elli e communica ion in as uc u e,
includes se e al essen ial g ound s a ions o he NATO
61
.
Mos o he deep-sea cables a e loca ed sou h o he GIUK gap which makes he gap
su eillance e en mo e impo an
62
.
Fo his eason, Iceland is a a ge o malicious cybe ac i i ies. The Chinese p esence on
Iceland is a ma e o conce n o he Wes and in June 2023, he p o-Russian hacking g oup
NoName057 a acked he Pa liamen ’s websi e and he in as uc u e, and he Compu e
Eme gency Response Team o Iceland (CERT-IS) had di icul ies o handle hese a acks
63
.
3.5 EU Membe ship
Iceland decided o apply o EU membe ship, which led o he s a o accession nego ia ions
in 2011. In 2013, he Icelandic go e nmen decided agains joining he EU due o dispu ed
ishing quo as and concluded a ee ade ag eemen wi h China
64
. In esponse o he g owing
ins abili y o he global poli ics, Iceland decided in 2024 o eac i a e he EU accession
nego ia ions by a e e endum in 2027
65
which now will be done al eady in Augus 2026 which
could be a majo s a egic gain o he Eu opean Union in he A c ic Region. The iew o he
EU is ha Iceland’s applica ion has ne e been o icially wi hd awn, bu only suspended, which
means ha he nego ia ions could be con inued which would signi ican ly accele a e he
p ocedu e
66
.
55
Aguia 2026
56
Rachold 2022
57
Rachold 2022
58
Øs e ud/Hønneland 2013
59
Dean 2023
60
Sigholm e al. 2024
61
Sigholm e al. 2024
62
Childs 2022
63
Sigholm e al. 2024
64
Dams e al. 2020
65
Hegedüs 2026, Lecle c 2026
66
Lecle c 2026, She alo ich 2026
