The Geopolitics of Iceland

Geopoli ics_Iceland 1 Apl. P o . D . D . K. Saalbach Geos a egy and Geopoli ics Depa men 1 49069 Osnab ueck The Geopoli ics o Iceland 02 Ma ch 2026 Summa y This wo king pape analyzes he geopoli ics o Iceland ha co e s an a ea o 103,125 km² nea he A c ic Ci cle. In 2024, Iceland had 364,036 inhabi an s. The main geopoli ical p oblem o Iceland is i s cen al loca ion in he G eenland-Iceland-Uni ed Kingdom (GIUK) gap in he de ense agains Russia, i s ole as p o ide in he Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC be ween he Uni ed S a es and Eu ope and i s po en ial u u e as ade cen e o he new shipping ou es. On he o he hand, i is a small s a e wi hou an own a my. Fo his eason, he aim o he Icelandic geopoli ics is o be embedded in and p o ec ed by ins i u ional a angemen s. In he mili a y sec o , his is achie ed by he bila e al ag eemen wi h he Uni ed S a es om 1951 who gi e a secu i y gua an ee o Iceland. Iceland p o ides hos suppo o NATO pa ne s and exe cises, as needed. Iceland is economically closely linked o Eu ope as membe o he Eu opean F ee T ade A ea EFTA and he Eu opean Economic A ea EEA which is he coope a ion be ween EFTA and he Eu opean Union EU. As o he No dic S a es, Iceland is engaged in egional coope a ions, he A c ic Council, he No dic Council and he Wes -No dic Council. Iceland is s ongly engaged in sea ch and escue SAR ope a ions wi h i s Coas Gua d o an a ea o 1.9 million km². S a egic issues o Iceland a e he A c ic and Secu i y Policy, po en ial new shipping ou es due o he mel ing ice, he GIUK and GIN gap, he de ense o Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC and agains cybe h ea s and he EU Membe ship. The wo k and he expe ience in he A c ic Council we e he basis o Iceland’s i s and second A c ic Policy om 2011 and 2021 wi h he ou key a eas in e na ional coope a ion, clima e change, secu i y, and de ense and A c ic esea ch. Rega ding he shipping ou es, he Cen al Sea Rou e (TSR) could make Iceland o a e y p omising place o a la ge po . Whe e he A c ic mee s wi h he A lan ic, he e a e possible gaps (sea passages o he Russians) known by NATO as GIUK (G eenland, Iceland, and Uni ed Kingdom) and GIN (G eenland, Iceland, and No way). As Iceland is in he cen e o GIUK and GIN gaps, he NATO ca ies ou ai -su eillance missions om Iceland. Ai policing om Iceland is also a pa o he 2026 Exe cise A c ic Sen y. Based on he a ailabili y o cheap ene gy esul ing om he high geologic ac i i y in Iceland, he coun y has a apidly g owing da a cen e indus y. The coun y hos s pi o al digi al in as uc u es and deep-sea cables o c ucial impo ance o NATO and he b oade Eu o-A lan ic egion. Also, Iceland’s sa elli e communica ion in as uc u e, includes se e al essen ial g ound s a ions o he NATO. Fo his eason, Iceland is a a ge o malicious cybe ac i i ies. Iceland plans o eac i a e he EU accession p ocedu e which could be a majo s a egic gain o he Eu opean Union in he A c ic Region. Howe e , an EU membe ship s ill aces majo obs acles. Iceland al eady has he Hoy ík Ag eemen wi h he Fa oe Islands ha es ablished a single economic a ea. Fu he mo e, he e is a ee ade ag eemen (FTA) wi h China since 2013. I bo h ag eemen s a e no suspended, an EU accession o Iceland would ac ually include he non-EU membe Fa oe Islands in o he EU and open a ee- ade doo o China in o he EU. In summa y, while Iceland’s geopoli ics was success ul in ensu ing mili a y and economic s abili y by ag eemen s wi h he Uni ed S a es and Eu ope, se e al s a egic challenges need o be esol ed in he nea u u e. Geopoli ics_Iceland 2 Con en 1 The Geopoli ics o Iceland .................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 In oduc ion ................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 The Map o Iceland ........................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 His o y ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2 Ins i u ional F amewo k ....................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 O e iew ........................................................................................................................................ 4 2.2 Mili a y .......................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Economy ........................................................................................................................................ 5 2.4 Regional Coope a ion .................................................................................................................... 6 3. S a egic Issues .................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Iceland’s A c ic and Secu i y Policy ............................................................................................... 8 3.2 New Shipping Rou es ..................................................................................................................... 8 3.3 The GIUK and GIN Gaps ................................................................................................................. 9 3.4 Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC and Cybe Th ea s .................................................................. 9 3.5 EU Membe ship ............................................................................................................................. 9 4 Summa y ............................................................................................................................................. 10 5 Re e ences .......................................................................................................................................... 11 Geopoli ics_Iceland 3 1 The Geopoli ics o Iceland 1.1 In oduc ion This wo king pape analyzes he geopoli ics o Iceland ha co e s an a ea o 103,125 km² nea he A c ic Ci cle. In 2024, Iceland had 364,036 inhabi an s. The main geopoli ical p oblem o Iceland is i s cen al loca ion in he G eenland-Iceland-Uni ed Kingdom (GIUK) gap in he de ense agains Russia, i s ole as p o ide in he Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC be ween he Uni ed S a es and Eu ope and i s po en ial u u e as ade cen e o he new shipping ou es. On he o he hand, i is a small s a e wi hou an own a my. Fo his eason, he aim o he Icelandic geopoli ics is o be embedded in and p o ec ed by ins i u ional a angemen s. 1.2 The Map o Iceland Map o Iceland Sou ce/Au ho : File: Iceland posi ion144.png- Wikimedia Commons Da e Decembe 2007 Au ho s: Lence + Ulamm No changes made he e. Page URL: h ps://commons.wikimedia.o g/wiki/File:Iceland_ posi ion144.png License: C ea i e Commons A ibu ion-Sha e Alike 3.0 Unpo ed ia Wikimedia Commons Link o license: h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en Iceland co e s an a ea o 103,125 km² nea he A c ic Ci cle, he egion abo e 66o34’ la i ude No h. Eigh A c ic S a es ha e e i o y in he A c ic Ci cle: Uni ed S a es (Alaska), Russia, Canada, Iceland, Denma k (G eenland), No way, Sweden, and Finland. I s geologic loca ion on he bo de o he Ame ican and Eu opean con inen al c us explains he high geologic ac i i y which p o ides ich ene gy sou ces. I is e y close o he A c ic Ci cle, bu he small Geopoli ics_Iceland 4 G imsey Island 25 kilome e s no h o Iceland is pa ially wi hin he A c ic Ci cle 1 . The ollowing map shows he loca ion o Iceland be ween he Uni ed Kingdom and G eenland which oge he o m he GIUK gap whe e he Russian No he n could mo e in o he A lan ic Ocean. No h o GIUK, he Russian lee needs o pass he GIN (G eenland-Iceland-No way) egion i s . 1.3 His o y The i s Icelandic S a e was o med in 930 and exis ed o mo e han 300 yea s. In 1286, Iceland came unde con ol o No way. As No way and Denma k we e uni ed in he Union o Kalma in 1380, i belonged om he e on o Denma k and s ayed wi h Denma k when he Union o No way and Denma k ended in 1814. In 1845, he old Icelandic pa liamen , he Al hing, was es o ed, and in 1874 he King o Denma k g an ed Iceland a sepa a e cons i u ion 2 . In 1904, Iceland was gi en au onomy by a Home Rule, and in 1918, Iceland and Denma k o med a Union which ga e Iceland so e eign y excep o he o eign ela ions which we e s ill handled by Denma k. The King o Denma k was also King o Iceland. The ini ial du a ion o his ag eemen was 25 yea s 3 , i.e., un il 1943, bu in 1940, Denma k was occupied by Ge many and he Uni ed Kingdom decided o occupy he Fa oe Islands and Iceland be o e Ge many could do. In 1941, he B i ish oops handed Iceland o e o he Uni ed S a es which al eady had occupied G eenland. In Augus 1944, Iceland decla ed i s independence and became a epublic un il oday. Iceland has a Coas Gua d, bu no a my. Iceland was a ounding membe o he NATO in 1949 and made a de ense ag eemen in 1951 wi h he US Iceland De ense Fo ce on he base in Ke la ík. In 2006, he Uni ed S a es decided o wi hd aw agains Iceland's will 4 . Bu he 2006 amendmen o he 1951 ag eemen cla i ied ha he Uni ed S a es could s ill use and e u n o hei base and Iceland also allows NATO membe s o conduc NATO ope a ions om Iceland, as needed 5 . Following a inancial c isis in 2007/2008 wi h bank up cy o he h ee la ges banks, a massi e de alua ion o he Icelandic cu ency and a c edi c isis 6 , Iceland decided o apply o EU membe ship, which led o he s a o accession nego ia ions in 2011. In 2013, he Icelandic go e nmen decided agains joining he EU due o dispu ed ishing quo as and concluded a ee ade ag eemen wi h China 7 . In esponse o he g owing ins abili y o he global poli ics 8 , Iceland decided in 2024 o eac i a e he EU accession nego ia ions by a e e endum in 2027 9 which now will be done al eady in Augus 2026 which could be a majo s a egic gain o he Eu opean Union in he A c ic Region. 2 Ins i u ional F amewo k 2.1 O e iew The main geopoli ical p oblem o Iceland is i s cen al loca ion in he G eenland-Iceland- Uni ed Kingdom (GIUK) gap in he de ense agains Russia, i s ole as p o ide in he Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC be ween he Uni ed S a es and Eu ope and i s po en ial u u e as ade cen e o he new shipping ou es. On he o he hand, i is a small s a e wi hou an own a my. Fo his eason, he aim o he Icelandic geopoli ics is o be embedded in and p o ec ed by ins i u ional a angemen s. In he mili a y sec o , his is achie ed by a bila e al ag eemen wi h 1 O’Rou ke e al. 2025 2 LSE 2025 3 LSE 2025 4 G eenland Commi ee 2020 5 S a e Depa men 2006 6 Halldo sson/Gyl i 2010 7 Dams e al. 2020 8 She alo ich 2026 9 Hegedüs 2026, Lecle c 2026 Geopoli ics_Iceland 5 he Uni ed S a es who gi e a secu i y gua an ee o Iceland and Iceland p o ides hos suppo o NATO pa ne s and exe cises, as needed 10 . While he mili a y sec o is domina ed by he Uni ed S a es, i is economically closely linked o Eu ope as membe o he Eu opean F ee T ade A ea EFTA and he Eu opean Economic A ea EEA which is he coope a ion be ween EFTA and he Eu opean Union EU. Iceland is again discussing a membe ship wi h he EU. While Iceland iews i sel clea ly as Eu opean coun y, he opinion on he EU is highly ola ile. In c isis si ua ions like he inancial c isis and he uns able wo ld o de o oday, he o e s a e suppo ing an EU accession as a sa e ha en, hey could u n agains EU i he poli ical p ice ega ding ishing and so e eign y is pe cei ed as oo high. When China was suppo i e a e he inancial c isis, Iceland u ned o China ins ead o he EU in 2013. As o he No dic S a es, Iceland is engaged in egional coope a ions, he A c ic Council, he No dic Council and he Wes -No dic Council. 2.2 Mili a y Iceland was a ounding membe o he NATO in 1949 and made a de ense ag eemen in 1951 wi h heUni ed S a es which deployed he US Iceland De ense Fo ce on he na al ai base in Ke la ík. In 2006, he Uni ed S a es decided o wi hd aw om i s Ke la ík base agains Iceland's will 11 , bu meanwhile, he US Depa men o De ense (DoD) es ablished he DoD A c ic S a egy 2024 12 . The 2006 amendmen o he 1951 ag eemen cla i ied ha he Uni ed S a es could s ill use and e u n o he base and Iceland also allows NATO membe s o conduc NATO ope a ions om Iceland, “as is necessa y o suppo he u u e de ense needs o Iceland and o he No h A lan ic T ea y A ea” 13 . In July 2007, he NATO No h A lan ic Council decided o ca y ou ai - su eillance missions om Iceland o wo o h ee weeks du a ion on a e age h ee imes a yea 14 . Fu he mo e, he US awa ded in 2016 con ac s o upg ade Ke la ik o p o ide “a high le el o eadiness o U.S. Ai Fo ces in Eu ope”. 15 In Feb ua y 2026, he new NATO exe cise A c ic Sen y was s a ed. The Ge man Ai Fo ce deployed 4 igh e je s on he Ke la ik ai base o ai policing 16 . Iceland has a domes ic police o ce and a Coas Gua d o sea ch and escue (SAR) ope a ions, he p o ec ion o he Ke la ik Ai Base, he Ai De ense Sys ems and i s emo e ada and communica ion si es 17 . 2.3 Economy The Eu opean F ee T ade Associa ion (EFTA) was ounded in 1960 by Aus ia, Denma k, No way, Po ugal, Sweden, Swi ze land, and he Uni ed Kingdom wi h he S ockholm Con en ion which was upda ed and eplaced in 2001 by he Vaduz Con en ion. Meanwhile, he EFTA consis s o Iceland, Liech ens ein, No way, and Swi ze land; Iceland joined in 1970. Howe e , Iceland also had a ee ade ag eemen wi h he Eu opean Economic Communi y (EEC) since 1972. 18 The EEC was pa o he Eu opean Communi ies (EC) which 10 Sigholm e al. 2024 11 G eenland Commi ee 2020 12 DoD 2024a 13 S a e Depa men 2006 14 Childs 2022, Dean 2023 15 Childs 2022, Dean 2023 16 Bundesweh 2026 17 Sigholm e al. 2024 18 Lecle c 2006 Geopoli ics_Iceland 6 was ans o med o he Eu opean Union (EU) in 1992. In 1992, Iceland, Liech ens ein, and No way o med wi h he EU he Eu opean Economic A ea (EEA) which came in o o ce in 1994. The EU and he EFTA membe s con ol he EEA oge he in Join Commi ees. 19 Iceland joined a ious EU p og ams and coope a ions such as he No he n Dimension 20 . In 2021, he Eu opean Commission p esen ed an A c ic s a egy ha ocuses on A c ic p o ec ion, sus ainable de elopmen , and in e na ional coope a ion, aiming o a mo e ac i e ole. In o eign policy, he A c ic S a egy iden i ies he No he n Dimension and G eenland as key p io i ies 21 . Since 2007, he No he n Dimension has been a coope a ion be ween he EU, Russia, No way, and Iceland o he Bal ic and Ba en s Sea egion in he a eas o en i onmen , economy and social a ai s, anspo and logis ics, and cul u e, which was a ec ed by Uk aine con lic 22 . Iceland is also a signa o y o he Schengen ea y and Dublin egula ion on asylum 23 . In July 2025, he EU and Iceland signed a memo andum o unde s anding (MoU) on enhancing coope a ion on ishe ies and ocean a ai s and also coope a e h ough he EU's Agency o he Space P og am (EUSPA). The EU and Iceland wan o enhance hei secu i y coope a ion, bu only complemen a y o he NATO ag eemen s 24 . Bu a e he inancial c isis, Iceland signed a ee ade ag eemen wi h China and o he ag eemen s, like he esea ch ag eemen s be ween he Pola Resea ch Ins i u e o China (PRIC) and he Icelandic Cen e o Resea ch (Rannís) wi h he China-Iceland A c ic Obse a o y (CIAO) in Ka holl. Iceland was a ounding membe o he Asian In as uc u e In es men Bank o acili a e pa icipa ion in he Chinese Bel and Road Ini ia i e 25 . The Fa oe Islands ha e ee ade ag eemen s wi h se e al coun ies, bu he mos impo an is he Hoy ík Ag eemen wi h Iceland om 2005, ha en e ed in o o ce in 2006. This ag eemen es ablished a single economic a ea o he e i o ies o bo h coun ies, wi h ee mo emen o goods, se ices, capi al, and pe sons 26 . 2.4 Regional Coope a ion The A c ic Council is an impo an pla o m o Iceland. The wo k and he expe ience in he Council we e he basis o Iceland’s i s and second A c ic Policy om 2011 and 2021. The A c ic Council o he eigh A c ic s a es Uni ed S a es (Alaska), Russia, Canada, Iceland, Denma k (G eenland), No way, Sweden, and Finland was ounded by he O awa Decla a ion 1996 as in e go e nmen al o um o he A c ic Region. The Council is based on consensus and does no handle secu i y and mili a y aspec s 27 . The Council has adop ed h ee legally-binding ag eemen s, he Ag eemen on Coope a ion on Ae onau ical and Ma i ime Sea ch and Rescue (SAR) in he A c ic (2011), he Ag eemen on Coope a ion on Ma ine Oil Pollu ion P epa edness and Response in he A c ic (2013), and he Ag eemen on Enhancing In e na ional A c ic Scien i ic Coope a ion (2017) 28 . Fo secu i y ma e s, discussion o a we e es ablished, he A c ic Secu i y Fo ces Round able (ASFR) in 19 Ál a ez López/Razauskas 2024 20 Founda ion Robe Schuman 2025 21 EC 2001 22 Ál a ez López/Razauskas 2024 23 Founda ion Robe Schuman 2025 24 Lecle c 2006 25 G eenland Commi ee 2020 26 Fa oe Go e nmen 2025 27 O’Rou ke 2024 28 B imme 2023, O’Rou ke 2024 Geopoli ics_Iceland 7 2011 and he A c ic Chie s o De ense (ACHOD) Fo um in 2012 29 . In 2016, he A c ic Coas Gua d Fo um (ACGF) was ounded 30 . Iceland is s ongly engaged in SAR ope a ions wi h i s Coas Gua d in he ACGF amewo k. Iceland’s sea ch and escue a ea is 1.9 million km², mo e han wice he size o he Icelandic exclusi e economic zone 31 . Iceland claimed an ex ended con inen al shel (ECS) in 2009 a he esponsible Uni ed Na ions Commission on he Limi o he Con inen al Shel (CLCS) and ecei ed a a o able ecommenda ion om he CLCS in 2016. 32 Iceland is also a membe o he o he egional coope a ions, he No dic Council and he sepa a e Wes -No dic Council. The Helsinki T ea y o 1962 33 is he legal basis o he No dic Coope a ion and he No dic Council, he o icial body o No dic in e -pa liamen a y coope a ion be ween No way, Sweden, Finland, Denma k, Iceland, and he sel -go e ned coun ies G eenland, he Fa oe Islands, and he au onomous egion o Åland 34 . Wi hin he No dic Council o Minis e s as pla o m in e -go e nmen al coope a ion, he Fa oe Islands, G eenland, and Åland a e also ep esen ed, bu do no ha e o ing igh s 35 . In 2024, he Fa oe Islands and G eenland decla ed ha hey would no longe accep hei exclusion om No dic summi s on o eign and secu i y policy and ha hey wished o become ull membe s 36 An ag eemen was eached o conduc a legal e iew o he Helsinki T ea y and a e ision is planned in 2026 37 . Howe e , a he end o 2025, he No dic Council c ea ed a ai accompli by amending i s ules o p ocedu e, wi hou wai ing o he e ision o he Helsinki T ea y. E ec i e Janua y 1, 2026, G eenland, he Fa oe Islands, and Åland became equal membe s o he P esidium and now pa icipa e equally in all impo an decisions o he No dic Council 38 . These de elopmen s could ha e impac on he o he egional o ganiza ion, he Wes -No dic Council. The Wes -No dic Council is a pa liamen a y coope a ion be ween Iceland, G eenland, and he Fa oe Islands 39 . The Council was ounded as Wes No dic Pa liamen a ian Council o Coope a ion in 1985, he yea when G eenland le he EU. As he Fa oe Islands we e no in he EU as well, i was a coope a ion ou side he EU. Howe e , he e a e annual mee ings be ween ep esen a i es o he Eu opean Pa liamen and he Wes No dic Council 40 . The pa liamen s o he membe s send ep esen a i es o he Wes No dic Council wi h he Annual Gene al Mee ing as mos impo an egula e en . Iceland has exp essed an inc eased in e es o wo k mo e wi h i s neighbo s om G eenland and he Fa oe Islands 41 . As Iceland and he Fa oe Islands al eady ha e an economic union and as bo h he Fa oe Islands and G eenland a e looking o independence, he council could se e as a poli ical pla o m o all ac o s. Thei s a egic key asse would be he con ol o la ge sea a eas and he ich ishing g ounds. 29 Däume 2021, Rachold 2022 30 Däume 2021 31 Iceland 2021 32 O’Rou ke e al. 2025 33 O icial ile o he No dic Council o Minis e s and No dic Council 2018 34 Åland is an au onomous and demili a ized a ea o Finland 35 Ed a dsen 2025 36 Dam 2024, Ed a dsen 2024 37 Ed a dsen 2025 38 No dic Council 2025. 39 EP 2009 40 Ál a ez López/Razauskas 2024 41 Ha s einsdó i 2025 Geopoli ics_Iceland 8 3. S a egic Issues 3.1 Iceland’s A c ic and Secu i y Policy The A c ic Council is an impo an pla o m o Iceland. The wo k and he expe ience in he A c ic Council we e he basis o Iceland’s i s and second A c ic Policy om 2011 and 2021. The i s A c ic policy was c ea ed o s eng hen Iceland wi hin he A c ic Council 42 while he second A c ic policy “Iceland’s Policy o Ma e s Conce ning he A c ic Region” 43 om Oc obe 2021 was buil on Iceland’s 2019-2021 chai manship o he A c ic Council 44 . A special ocus is he clima e change and he impac on he A c ic egion. The mel ing o he ice may open new shipping ou es (Sec ion 3.2) 45 . The ou key a eas o he 2021 A c ic Policy a e in e na ional coope a ion, clima e change, secu i y, and de ense (naming Russia and China as po en ial isks) and A c ic esea ch. 46 In 2023, Iceland upda ed i s Na ional Secu i y Policy 47 . The aim is o ensu e Iceland’s b oad secu i y in e es s h ough ac i e in e na ional collabo a ion also in he ma i ime a eas. The NATO is seen as key pilla o Iceland’s de ense oge he wi h he 1951 De ense Ag eemen be ween Iceland and he Uni ed S a es o Ame ica 48 . 3.2 New Shipping Rou es The mel ing o ice due o he global wa ming opens h ee po en ial shipping ou es in he No h, he No he n Sea Rou e (NSR, No heas Passage) a ound No he n Russia, he No hwes Passage (NWP) h ough he Canadian A c ic Islands and he Cen al Sea Rou e (T anspola Sea Rou e TSR). The new sea ou es a e cu en ly no pe manen ly ice- ee, bu a e expec ed o be mos ly ice- ee be ween 2030 and 2040 49 . Iceland’s and China’s ocus is on he Cen a Sea Rou e (TSR). Looking o wa d o new po en ial shipping ou es, China has plans o a la ge shipping po in No heas Iceland. China men ioned he new sea ou es in hei A c ic Policy om 2018 50 . The Cen al Sea Rou e (TSR) goes h ough he cen e o he A c ic and could make Iceland o a e y p omising place o a la ge po 51 . The No hwes Passage (NWP) goes h ough he Canadian A c ic Islands and Canada a gues ha he NWP is in i s e i o y while he Uni ed S a es hold he opinion ha his is an in e na ional sea ou e wi h eedom o na iga ion and o e ligh 52 . While on he map his ou e looks sho and a ac i e, i is qui e di icul o na iga e and meanwhile, i is ques ionable whe he he ou e is comme cially iable 53 . In con as o he o he (s ill hypo he ical) shipping ou es, he e is a g owing ac i i y in he No he n Sea Rou e (NSR, No heas Passage) a ound no he n Russia which is signi ican ly sho e han he no mal Sou he n Sea Rou e SSR a ound India. Russia and China al eady in es ed in a ious No heas Passage p ojec s o anspo gas om Sibe ia o China 54 . 42 Ha s einsdó i 2025 43 Iceland 2021 44 Dean 2023 45 Remi o So ian 2025 46 Dean 2023 47 Al hingi 2023 48 Al hingi 2023 49 G eenland Commi ee 2020 50 Iceland 2021 51 Gomes 2022 52 Gomes 2022 53 O’Rou ke e al. 2025 54 Fe nández-Mon esinos 2023 Geopoli ics_Iceland 9 3.3 The GIUK and GIN Gaps Whe e he A c ic mee s wi h he A lan ic, he e a e possible gaps (sea passages o he Russians) known by NATO as GIUK (G eenland, Iceland, and Uni ed Kingdom) and GIN (G eenland, Iceland, and No way). Du ing cold wa , he NATO ou es deployed he Sound Su eillance Sys em (SOSUS) and ma i ime pa ol ai c a s like he P-3 O ion as ea ly wa ning elemen s o an i-subma ine wa a e (ASW) 55 . The a ea no h o Scandina ia is known as he ‘bas ion a ea’ whe e he o me So ie Union and now Russia has signi ican nuclea o ces wi h nuclea - a med ballis ic missile subma ines (SSBNs) in an ice- ee egion wi h he Kola peninsula 56 ; i is a huge, pe manen ly ice- ee a ea 57 . The NATO base in he Fa oe Islands suppo s he so- called bas ion de ense 58 . As Iceland is in he cen e o GIUK and GIN gaps, he NATO ca ies ou ai -su eillance missions om Iceland o wo o h ee weeks du a ion on a e age h ee imes a yea 59 . Ai policing om Iceland is also a pa o he 2026 Exe cise A c ic Sen y. 3.4 Sea Lines o Communica ion SLOC and Cybe Th ea s Based on he a ailabili y o cheap ene gy esul ing om he high geologic ac i i y in Iceland, he coun y has a apidly g owing da a cen e indus y. In 2023, Iceland launched he IRIS 108 Tbps (Te abi pe second) unde sea cable sys em linking Iceland o I eland and om he e o Eu ope. I eland has less s ic da a p o ec ion laws ha a ac many Tech companies. Iceland hos s pi o al digi al in as uc u es and deep-sea cables o c ucial impo ance o NATO and he b oade Eu o-A lan ic egion 60 . Also, Iceland’s sa elli e communica ion in as uc u e, includes se e al essen ial g ound s a ions o he NATO 61 . Mos o he deep-sea cables a e loca ed sou h o he GIUK gap which makes he gap su eillance e en mo e impo an 62 . Fo his eason, Iceland is a a ge o malicious cybe ac i i ies. The Chinese p esence on Iceland is a ma e o conce n o he Wes and in June 2023, he p o-Russian hacking g oup NoName057 a acked he Pa liamen ’s websi e and he in as uc u e, and he Compu e Eme gency Response Team o Iceland (CERT-IS) had di icul ies o handle hese a acks 63 . 3.5 EU Membe ship Iceland decided o apply o EU membe ship, which led o he s a o accession nego ia ions in 2011. In 2013, he Icelandic go e nmen decided agains joining he EU due o dispu ed ishing quo as and concluded a ee ade ag eemen wi h China 64 . In esponse o he g owing ins abili y o he global poli ics, Iceland decided in 2024 o eac i a e he EU accession nego ia ions by a e e endum in 2027 65 which now will be done al eady in Augus 2026 which could be a majo s a egic gain o he Eu opean Union in he A c ic Region. The iew o he EU is ha Iceland’s applica ion has ne e been o icially wi hd awn, bu only suspended, which means ha he nego ia ions could be con inued which would signi ican ly accele a e he p ocedu e 66 . 55 Aguia 2026 56 Rachold 2022 57 Rachold 2022 58 Øs e ud/Hønneland 2013 59 Dean 2023 60 Sigholm e al. 2024 61 Sigholm e al. 2024 62 Childs 2022 63 Sigholm e al. 2024 64 Dams e al. 2020 65 Hegedüs 2026, Lecle c 2026 66 Lecle c 2026, She alo ich 2026