In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch
Volume 1/ 2014
Alexande Feke e, Ch is iane G inda, Alex Lechleu hne ,
Ompe Aimé Mudimu, Celia No , Ul Sch emme
Coping wi h Disas e s and
Clima e Ex emes - Challenges &
Coope a ion Po en ial
Resea ch Con ibu ions o he
2013 DAAD Alumni Summe School
Edi ed by Celia No , Ch is iane G inda, Tobias Blä gen & Alexande Feke e
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No , C. e al. (Eds.) 2014
In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch
Volume 1/ 2014
This documen is published wi hin he se ies 'In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch'.
All publica ions can be downloaded om h p://opus.bsz-
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The documen does no necessa ily p esen he opinion o he edi o s.
EDITION NOTICE
Edi o s o Se ies
Alexande Feke e (P o . D .-Ing.)
Ch is iane G inda (Dipl.-Geog .)
Alex Lechleu hne (P o . D . med. D . e . na .)
Ompe Aimé Mudimu (P o . D .-Ing.)
Celia No (M. Sc.)
Ul Sch emme (P o . D .-Ing.)
Cologne Uni e si y o Applied Sciences
Ins i u e o Rescue Enginee ing and Ci il P o ec ion
Be zdo e S . 2
50679 Cologne
Ge many
www.i g. h-koeln.de
Edi o ship o Se ies - con ac : alexande . eke e@ h-koeln.de
Edi o s o his Volume
Celia No (M. Sc.)
Ch is iane G inda (Dipl.-Geog .)
Tobias Blä gen (Dipl.-Geog .)
Alexande Feke e (P o . D .-Ing.)
Con ac
Celia No
Email: celia.no @ h-koeln.de
Phone: + 49 (0) 221 8275 2739
Web: h p:// isknc isis.wo dp ess.com
Recommended Ci a ion
Su name, Fi s Name (Yea o Publica ion): Ti le. Ti le o Chap e . In:
No , C. e al. (Eds.) Coping wi h Disas e s and Clima e Ex emes –
Challenges & Coope a ion Po en ial. Resea ch Con ibu ions o DAAD
Alumni Summe School 2013. In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch,
1/2014. Page Re e ence.
Cologne, No embe 2014
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In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch
Volume 1/ 2014
Fo ewo d
Based on expe iences wi h ecen d ough s, ea hquakes, loods and sunamis, he 2013 DAAD Alumni
Summe School concei ed e ec i e Disas e Risk Reduc ion (DRR) and Clima e Change Adap ion (CCA) as
in e disciplina y asks o social and na u al sciences. Fo accomplishing c oss-cul u al, c oss-disciplina y and
c oss-ins i u ional lea ning he o ganizing ins i u ions, he Cologne Uni e si y o Applied Sciences (CUAS)
and he Uni ed Na ions Uni e si y - Ins i u e o En i onmen and Human Secu i y (UNU-EHS) in i ed 20
Alumni om 17 di e en coun ies bu also om di e en esea ch and p ac ical backg ounds o Bonn and
Cologne in No embe 2013.
We hank DAAD o he unding oppo uni ies, un i ing adminis a i e suppo and in i a ion o he alumni
ne wo k and webina pla o m. We also hank P o . D . La s Ribbe and D . Udo Neh en om he Cologne
Uni e si y o Applied Sciences - Ins i u e o Technology and Resou ces Managemen in he T opics and
Sub opics (ITT) and P o . D . Jakob Rhyne , D . Jö n Bi kmann, D . Ma hias Ga schagen and D . Jö g
Sza zynski om he Uni ed Na ions Uni e si y - Ins i u e o En i onmen and Human Secu i y (UNU-EHS) o
hei con inuous scien i ic inpu be o e, du ing and a e he semina . A Cologne Uni e si y o Applied
Sciences we would also like o exp ess ou g a i ude o enabling such esea ch and semina s o he
p esiden , P o . D .-Ing. Ch is oph Seeßelbe g, he In e na ional O ice, D . Elisabe h Holuscha, and, las bu
ne e leas , he eam o s uden s ha helped us p epa e he e en .
We especially hank all pa icipan s o his Summe School o making his semina a ui ul and inspi ing
expe ience and look o wa d o u u e collabo a ion.
This i s olume o a no el se ies on “In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch” is one co ne s one o
documen ing and he eby sha ing some o he esea ch conduc ed in he con ex o ou 2013 semina . A he
same ime, we aim a con inuing his excellen s a ing poin in u he join esea ch and ne wo king.
The cha ac e o his se ies aims a add essing esea ch ha is ‘in eg a i e’ in he sense o wha is cu en ly
e med ‘holis ic’ isk managemen o isk go e nance esea ch, bu also in wha is coined ‘in e - and
ansdisciplina y’ esea ch. This also in eg a es na u al and man-made ypes o haza ds as well as a
pe spec i e on impac s on humans, eco- and social sys ems, in as uc u e and o he sec o s and
o ganiza ion ypes. Much o he wo k we p esen will be ‘wo k in p og ess’ ha in i es commen s om he
eade and shall se e as a s imulus o ad ancemen o he wo k p esen ed he e, bu also o e oppo uni ies
o u he join au ho ships.
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Table o Con en s
In oduc ion ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
B idging he Missing Gap: People Cen ed Policy Guidelines o Minimize Reloca ion Failu es: Case o S i Lanka
Nisha a Fe nando ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Po en ial o Eco-p ojec and G een A chi ec u e o Achie e a Sus ainable U ban de elopmen . The Case o
Có doba, A gen ina
Agus in Mi anda. ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Clima e Change Adap a ion S a egy in Shanghai: Coping wi h U baniza ion and Disas e Risk Reduc ion
Pan Tao ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Discussing he A e ma h o Two Disas e s in Chile: The Ques ion o Scale
Vicen e Sando al ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Socie al Dealings wi h Cyclone in Bangladesh
Bishawji Mallick ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Inc easing Haza ds – Inc easing Policies – Inc easing Usage o Resilience? Su ey amongs he Pa icipan s o
he 2013 DAAD Alumni Summe School
Alexande Feke e, Ch is iane G inda & Celia No .......................................................................................................................... 38
Open Resea ch Ques ions wi hin he Scope o Disas e , Risk and C isis Managemen in he Con ex o Coping
wi h Disas e s and Clima e Ex emes
Alexande Feke e ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
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In oduc ion
In acing ecen na u al and man-made disas e s Disas e Risk Reduc ion (DRR) and Clima e Change Adap ion
(CCA) calls o in eg a i e hinking and lea ning ac oss cul u es, disciplines and ins i u ions. In imes o
inc easing complexi y, insecu i y and unce ain y hinking ou side he box becomes essen ial. This i s
olume o “In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch” in i es he eade o look beyond common pe spec i es o
DRR and CCA and ela es clima e change and na u al disas e s wi h in e disciplina y and bo om-up policy
making.
Nisha a Fe nando b idges his gap in common eloca ion s a egies and p esen s a people cen ed policy
guideline ha mi iga es pas eloca ion ailu es in S i Lanka.
Agus in Mi anda analyses ci ies as ecosys ems ha need balance o su i e and e alua es he po en ial o
eco-p ojec s and g een a chi ec u e o achie e a sus ainable u ban de elopmen in he A gen inian ci y
Có doba.
Pan Tao looks a clima e change impac s Shanghai aces and i s s a egies o adap . He unde lines ha
Shanghai ci y should in eg a e an adap a ion s a egy in o i s u ban de elopmen s a egy and hus aking
he chance o shape he nex gene a ion o he ci y.
Vicen e Sando al analyses di e en discou ses on scale o he in e p e a ion o he social p oduc ion
and ep oduc ion o isk wi hin and h ough di e en geog aphical scales. He explo es gene al implica ions
in ol ed in he a e ma h o wo disas e s in Chile, he Chai én olcano e up ion in 2008 and he Maule
ea hquake in Feb ua y 2010.
Bishawji Mallick uses he esul s o an empi ical s udy conduc ed a sou hwes coas al Bangladesh
du ing 2009 and 2010. I unde lines he impo ance o disas e p epa edness planning as a holis ic app oach
ha includes indi idual ulne abili y moni o ing based on he cul u al, socio-economic, poli ical and
en i onmen al con ex o hose a ec ed.
Alexande Feke e, Ch is iane G inda and Celia No p esen a su ey on esilience as a ecen esea ch and
policy agenda in con ex o clima e change ela ed haza ds and adap a ion policies in di e en coun ies.
Las ly Alexande Feke e p esen s a collec ion o ce ain aspec s and open ques ions in isk managemen and
isk go e nance science dealing wi h na u al and man-made isks, including clima e change wi h special
ocus o he sus ainabili y and e alua ion o esea ch and de elopmen p ojec s and implemen a ions.
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B idging he Missing Gap: People Cen ed Policy Guidelines o
Minimize Reloca ion Failu es: Case o S i Lanka
Nisha a Fe nando
Email: nisha a. e [email protected]
In oduc ion
Acquisi ion o peoples’ homes and lands o p i a e and public de elopmen p ojec s (high ways, dams and
ese oi s, po s, oads and u ban enewal e c.) o as a s a egy o educe people’s exposu e o na u al
haza ds ( loods, ea h slips) o disas e s ( sunami) displace people. Al hough he eloca ion o such displaced
people in o un amilia new se lemen s si ua ed a om hei p e ious place o esidence wi hou hei
consen seemed o be he sole op ion a he gi en ime and ci cums ances, such in e en ions ha e no been
e y success ul in S i Lanka (Muggah 2008). I is mainly due o inc eased impo e ishmen o amilies a e
eloca ion as hey we e mainly unsuccess ul in coping wi h mul iple isks (Ce nea 2000) (landlessness,
homelessness, joblessness, ood insecu i y, ma ginaliza ion, inc eased mo bidi y, mo ali y, ood insecu i y,
lack o access o common p ope y esou ces and dis up ion o exis ing social capi al) and mul i-dimensional
s esses (physiological, psychological and social-cul u al) gene a ed as a esul o “ eloca ion shock” ha may
con inue h ough he di e en s ages o eloca ion (p io o, immedia ely a e and wo yea s a e ) (Scudde
1981, 2005). In addi ion, eloca ion impac s on he cul u al landscape and he iden i y o communi ies
(So ensen, 1996). In his con ex , he a ailable in e na ional and local li e a u e on in olun a y ( o ced)
eloca ion emphasizes he need o educe a ious eloca ion ela ed isks and s esses ( om landlessness o
land base eloca ion, om joblessness o e-employmen , om homelessness o econs uc ion, om
ma ginaliza ion o social inclusion, om loss o access o es o a ion o communi y asse s and se ices, om
social disa icula ion o ne wo ks and communi y building) (Oli e -Smi h 2009, 2010; Modi 2009). In he
planning s age, ca e ul implemen a ion and managemen o eloca ion p ocesses by adhe ing o he
na ional and in e na ional amewo ks and policies, be e unding, poli ical will, p e-displacemen esea ch
and long e m moni o ing a e in e ela ed i al ac o s o make eloca ed communi ies secu e and
sus ainable a e in olun a y ( o ced) eloca ion (Fe nando 2012; Fe nando & Punchihewa 2013; Fe nando e
al. 2010; He ige e al. 2004; Bi kmann & Fe nando, 2007; Bi kmann e al. 2007). These ac o s will assis he
eloca ed people o a leas econs uc he social, economic and cul u al li es in he new loca ion by no
only p o iding adequa e p o ec ion om eloca ion ela ed isks bu also h ough opening up a wide ange
o new oppo uni ies.
An ideal p og am would no o cibly eloca e any communi y by up oo ing hem om hei esidence o
o igin o any eason/s. Howe e , in eali y in olun a y eloca ion becomes ine i able owing o una oidable
ci cums ances unde jus i iable g ounds. In his con ex , i is i ally impo an o iden i y ways o minimizing
s esses and isky si ua ions ha could eme ge as a esul o in olun a y ( o ced) eloca ion ha make he
p ospec i e bene icia ies insecu e and ulne able o becoming a ec ed by po e y o ch onic po e y
(Fe nando 2012; Fe nando 2006).
Agains he abo e backd op, his a icle makes an a emp o p opose some guidelines o in olun a y
eloca ion which include he ole o h ee s akeholde s, namely he s a e, he de elopmen pa ne s and he
displaced people o he bene icia ies. The S i Lankan pas expe ience shows ha eloca ion p ojec s ha e no
been guided by common guidelines o he han p ojec speci ic guidelines which esul ed in some successes
and ailu es. These ou comes, no doub , s ess he need o ha ing p ope guidelines. The guidelines
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discussed in his a icle make an a emp o add ess he eme ging need o ha e p ope guidelines on he one
hand and o minimize he widening gap a policy le el on he o he .
The au ho in ends o publish hese guidelines no only in English language bu also in Sinhala and Tamil
languages as well wi h he in en ion o add essing a wide ange o audience including planne s, policy
make s, implemen e s, poli icians, academia, s uden s, dono s, displaced people, eloca ees and mos
impo an ly he gene al public o he coun y. Acco dingly his would be able o aise awa eness on he
eloca ion p ocess while p oposing a sus ainable p og am o he eloca ion and a planned p ocess o
eloca ion o a ec ed communi ies. Published and unpublished documen s ha e been e e eed in addi ion
o he in e iews conduc ed wi h a ious o icials o go e nmen , semi go e nmen , non-go e nmen
o ganiza ions and esea che s o cons uc he guidelines. The d a guidelines we e u he e iewed by
some expe s in he ele an ield and hei commen s ha e also been inco po a ed while cons uc ing he
inal guidelines.
The p oposed guidelines a e gene ally applicable o people who a e displaced as a esul o de elopmen
need o disas e s induced by poli ical decisions which egula e and go e n o ce ul e ic ion. The e o e, a
de ailed ese lemen ac ion plan is necessa y o acili a e he numbe o amilies displaced and eloca ed.
This should be ailo ed o sui he local equi emen s unde ci cums ances o social jus ice. These guidelines
should be applied a incep ion o he planning s age o he eloca ion p ocess. The p oposed guidelines a e
p esen ed in h ee s ages o he eloca ion p ocess namely, p io o displacemen (P e- eloca ion),
immedia ely a e eloca ion and wo yea s a e eloca ion.
Objec i es o he policy guidelines
1. To de ise a mechanism ha would enable he communi ies o success ully cope wi h a ious isks
and s esses gene a ed as a esul o he shock o in olun a y eloca ion and he eloca ion p ocess.
2. To make he p ospec i e eloca ees awa e o he eloca ion p ocess (o s ages o eloca ion) wi h a
ime ame ag eed upon o comple e he success ul eloca ion p ocess by a ec ed pe sons and
implemen ing agencies.
3. To make he eloca ion p ocess o be pa icipa o y, anspa en and accoun able.
4. To assis pa icula ly he mos ulne able g oups ( emale headed households, hidden emale headed
households, households wi h disabled, ch onically ill membe s, poo households) o be success ully
adap ed o he new loca ion, es o e hei li elihoods in o de o imp o e hei li ing s anda ds. The
p og am should ensu e ha he displaced people imp o e o a leas es o e hei p e ious s anda d
o li ing (Ce nea 2000).
5. To ensu e he people a ec ed due o in olun a y eloca ion p og ams o be p omp ly compensa ed.
Also aise awa eness among he people abou he p ocess o ed essing hei g ie ances o
acili a e easy access and quick esponse o esol e issues.
The concep ual ounda ions o he iden i ied guidelines
The main concep ual ounda ions o he guidelines iden i ied as: he concep o o ced eloca ion, including
wo heo e ical models, namely (1) Thaye Scudde ’s (1981, 2005) S ess and Se lemen P ocess and (2)
Michael Ce nea’s (2000) Impo e ishmen Risks and Recons uc ion Model, o ese ling displaced people and
he concep o ulne abili y ocusing bo h on he ex e nal (exposu e) and he in e nal sides (coping). The
elemen s o he cons uc ed analy ical amewo k a e discussed below.
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In an a emp o explain he analy ical amewo k in Figu e 1, i is app op ia e o begin wi h a discussion o
he ex e nal shocks. This is in wo o ms (1) na u al o manmade disas e s o de elopmen p ojec s des oyed
a ious common p ope ies a he egional le el ( oads, ailways, schools, hospi als, e c.) on one hand and
des oyed li es and a ious ypes o asse s a he household le el; (2) he o ced eloca ion o a ec ed
communi ies in o new se lemen s, mainly in a loca ion a om hei p e ious place o esidence.
As a esul o o ced eloca ion, he displaced people do no ha e any op ion o he han se ling in he gi en
new se lemen s ou side he o iginal place o esidence. Those o cedly eloca ed people a e exposed o
a ious isks and s esses, which a e u he discussed unde he con ex (di icul y in accessing he common
p ope y esou ces (sea, ci y e c.) o ea n an income, lack o employmen oppo uni ies in new se lemen
a eas, lacks o p ope in as uc u e, poo -quali y o housing and agmen ed ela ionships wi h he hos
communi y, which some imes e en lead o physical con lic s). In his con ex , o ced eloca ion is belie ed o
ha e di ec ly impac ed on i e ypes o household asse s (social, inancial, human, physical and na u al) which
a e i al o employ success ul li elihood s a egies (enhancemen and coping) o secu e household
li elihoods.
Ex e nal in e en ion, he e e e s o di ec (alloca ion o go e nmen land o build se lemen s o o gi e
inancial suppo o cons uc houses, buy land, gi e ood a ions and money o buy ki chen u ensils,
cons uc ion o common se ices, e c.) and indi ec ( eques p i a e banks o gi e low-in e es loans o s a
new income-ea ning ac i i ies, p o ide ax concessions o p i a e o ganiza ions as a ool o encou age hem
o become in ol ed in se lemen cons uc ion, e c.), in ol emen o na ional go e nmen , p o incial and
local au ho i ies adop ing a ious policies, legisla ion and ins i u ions o s eng hen he household-asse
base as well as access o hem. This is in addi ion o a ious ypes o assis ance om in e na ional and
na ional NGOs and om o he p i a e o ganiza ions o help s eng hen he household-asse base and assis
wi h he eloca ion p ocess. The assis ance was mainly in he o m o cons uc ing houses and dona ing
u ni u e, household elec ical equipmen and o he capi al equipmen ( ishing boa s, ne s, ou -boa and in-
boa engines, bicycles e c.) o help imp o e he exis ing income-ea ning ac i i ies, o o s a new o ms o
income gene a ing ac i i ies.
The inal ou come o he a ious household-le el s a egies employed, as opposed o a ious o ced
eloca ion- ela ed isks and s esses could be ha he household becomes ei he mo e secu e o mo e
ulne able. This, in u n, would be a di ec eedback o households and o go e nmen , o he in e na ional
non-go e nmen al o ganiza ions (INGOs)/NGOs and p i a e o ganiza ions in ela ion o hei ex e nal
in e en ions. Howe e , he pu pose o he guidelines is o p o ide p ope s a egy o minimize a ious isks
and s esses ace by eloca ees in he eloca ion p ocess (p e- eloca ion, immedia ely a e eloca ion and
wo yea s a e ) and make hem secu e.
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In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch
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Figu e 1: Analy ical F amewo k
Sou ce: Fe nando 2013
Guidelines
As i is men ioned abo e, he policy guidelines can be sys emized unde p io o eloca ion, immedia ely
a e eloca ion and wo yea s a e eloca ion.
P io o eloca ion
The p e- eloca ion phase needs o concen a e on he aspec s o emo ing o minimizing he isks leading o
displacemen . Conside ing he ac ha displacemen s by disas e s, ei he man-made o na u al and
de elopmen - induced a e una oidable in ce ain cases, p e- planning o con ingencies o eloca ion should
be a ailable which would con ibu e o minimizing ad e se impac s on he social, cul u al and economic
aspec s o p ospec i e eloca ees.
Vulne abili y educ ion and ea ly wa ning
I is i al o minimize he numbe o amilies going o be eloca ed by a oiding o minimizing he ad e se
impac s o causes o displacemen , h ough de eloping p ope ea ly wa ning sys ems o any o he
ulne abili y educ ion s a egies o p e en na u al haza d ela ed displacemen and eloca ion.
•Well-concei ed e acua ion plans and p og ams should be in place
•E icien p ocess should be e ol ed in pe aining o u ilizing local esou ces o manage
displacemen and empo a y in e nal mig a ion.
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The u ban de elopmen spawned by such low-densi y g ow h has been subs i u ed, o a ce ain ex en , by
new u ban p oposals and p ojec s ha pu o wa d he alue o na u e in he ci y and which y o c ea e
spaces ha p omo e social in e ac ion in he cen e o he ci y o nea by.
The aim is o inco po a e na u e o all hose u ban a eas capable o p ese ing i , c ea ing “eco-ba ios” o
“eco- illas” ha include g een oo s, na u al d aining sys ems and po ous su aces in pa king lo s and
walkways. In simple e ms, such de elopmen s allow na u e o pa icipa e in u ban in as uc u e.
The g een oo sys em dese es a special commen . Some o i s main ad an ages a e:
•Flood con ol
•The cooling o buildings in he summe and he inc ease in humidi y
•The abso p ion o ai pollu ion and noise
•Biodi e si y con ol
•Aes he ic app aisal
•Leisu e / ee ime oppo uni ies
•(P ojec "BedZED in London", F i h 2004)
Mo eo e , in a g een oo , he pho osyn hesis o plan s ans e s’ sola ene gy in bio-molecules, eleasing
Oxygen and wa e s eam; he lea es e ain he suspending ai pa icles and o e shadow; he oo s make a
ain-wa e il a ion sys em ha p e en s g ound e osion and sedimen a ion (IGRA 2009). G een oo s a e
de ices o u ban in e en ion ha make possible he pe manen and sus ainable design and e-design o
ci ies. They assu e ha mony be ween u ban en i onmen and he su ounding landscape h ough he design
o he i h açade.
Final commen s
In a b oad sense, we can asse ha i is necessa y o sp ead awa eness ha na u e plays an essen ial ole in
human de elopmen , h ough bo h o mal and non– o mal educa ion, and ha all changes pu h ough
educa ion mus be guided o s imula e pa icipa ion and commi men o e e y ac o in ol ed.
Wi hin his amewo k o in eg a ion, we should acknowledge ha he ci y is he en i onmen o human
beings, ega dless o size and popula ion. The e o e, i is no possible o de elop sus ainably wi hou p ope
planning o he ci y, no can he e be sus ainable de elopmen wi h dis espec o en i onmen , he use o
enewable esou ces and he conse a ion o o he species.
This e lec s he need o ela e and in eg a e he conse a ion o na u e and u ban de elopmen . The
inco po a ion o na u e o u ban planning and o a chi ec u e mus y o sa is y he needs o inhabi an s
comp omising nei he de elopmen possibili ies no esou ces o u u e gene a ions. We s i e o ob ain
cons an balance and ha mony be ween u ban spaces and na u al spaces, a symbiosis be ween buil
en i onmen and na u al en i onmen .
Bibliog aphy
Municipali y o Có doba - Sec e a y o En i onmen , 2014. A ailable om:
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In e na ional G een Roo Associa ion, 2009. A ailable om:
h p://www.ig a-wo ld.com/bene i s/public_bene i s.php [15 Janua y 2014].
An eque a, J 2005, El po encial de sos enibilidad de los asen amien os humanos. A ailable om:
www.eumed.ne /lib os/2005/ja-sos / [15 Janua y 2014].
Le , E 2005, ‘La geopolí ica de la biodi e sidad y el desa ollo sus en able. Economización del mundo,
acionalidad ambien al y eap opiación social de la na u aleza’, Obse a o io Social de Amé ica La ina,
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ol. 6, no. 17. A ailable om: h p://biblio eca i ual.clacso.o g.a /a /lib os/osal/osal17/dle .pd [15
Janua y 2014].
Vog , J 2008a, 'S ad pa ks als Abbild gesellscha liche En wicklungen‘ in Nachhal ige S ad pa ks - Konzep
und P axisbeispiele, eds G Lein-Ko meie , A Os mann, A. & J Vog , RWFV, Ka ls uhe, pp. 14-17.
Vog , J 2008b, 'Funk ionen des Nachhal igen S ad pa ks in de S ad en wicklung‘ in Nachhal ige S ad pa ks -
Konzep und P axisbeispiele, eds G Lein-Ko meie , A Os mann, A. & J Vog , RWFV, Ka ls uhe, pp. 136-
138.
Lein-Ko meie , G 2008, 'Das Lei bild de Nachhal igkei ‘ in Nachhal ige S ad pa ks - Konzep und P axisbeispiele,
eds G Lein-Ko meie , A Os mann, A. & J Vog , RWFV, Ka ls uhe, pp. 24-28.
Timme mans, W 2001, Wildli e in he Ci y. U banisa ion as an ins umen o wildli e policy?, Aeneas, Bes .
F i h, M 2004, ‘Conse ando la na u aleza en la ciudad: Biodi e sidad u bana y desa ollo sos enible’ in Fo o
pa a un Zo ozau e Sos enible, pp. 164-173.
P ojec BedZED n.d. A ailable om h p://www.zed ac o y.com/zed ac o y_po a olio_1.pd [15 Janua y
2014].
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Clima e Change Adap a ion S a egy in Shanghai: Coping wi h
U baniza ion and Disas e Risk Reduc ion
Pan Tao
Email: d .pan [email protected]
Abs ac
As a coas al megaci y, Shanghai is ulne able when acing clima e dis up ions. Since 1990s, Shanghai’s
empe a u e has d ama ically inc eased wi h a a e o 0.5°C/10a, which is 6.7 imes highe han he global
a e. U baniza ion has been a majo con ibu o o Shanghai’s clima e change. Al hough Shanghai ci y has
d awn i s clima e adap a ion s a egies in i s 5-yea plan, clima e adap a ion wo k in Shanghai is s ill in i s
ea ly s age. This pape summa ized clima e change ac s and impac s on he ci y, and i s adap a ion
s a egies. The pape u he sugges s Shanghai ci y should in eg a e an adap a ion s a egy in o i s u ban
de elopmen s a egy, which shapes he nex gene a ion o he ci y.
In oduc ion
Shanghai is he la ges ci y in China, loca ed in he eas e n coas al plain a an a e age al i ude o 4.0m N.N.
The ci y popula ion is 23 million, ha ing a high densi y o 16,800 pe son/ km² in he u ban a ea. Shanghai has
a humid sub opical clima e and expe iences ou dis inc seasons. The annual p ecipi a ion is app oxima ely
1,100 mm which is no e enly dis ibu ed. Th ee days o ains o ms could con ibu e 25% o he o al annual
p ecipi a ion (Fang e al. 2012). Summe s a e ho and humid, wi h an a e age o 8.7 days exceeding 35 °C and
he ho es empe a u e was e e eco ded a 40.8 °C on Augus 7, 2013 (Shanghai Me eo ology Se ice
Cen e 2013). The impac o human ac i i ies on local clima e has been pa icula ly p ominen in he las
h ee decades o as u baniza ion and indus ializa ion. Hea wa es, in ensi ied s o ms, in asion o sal y sea
wa e ha e h ea ened he ci y. Fo ins ance, i was es ima ed ha inne -ci y lood is causing app oxima ely 1
billion RMB ($160 million USD) annual loss o he ci y (Chen e al. 2008). Mo e han lood damage, he o he
haza ds damage including hea , d ough , e c., could u he li up he o e all cos . The e o e, in he yea
2012, Shanghai ci y go e nmen eleased a 5-yea plan (2011-2015) on Ene gy Conse a ion and Clima e
Change, which includes clima e change adap a ion s a egies a he i s ime.
Clima e change ac s in Shanghai
Rain all
Acco ding o he da a om he na ional wea he s a ion, he annual p ecipi a ion in Shanghai inc eased wi h
a a e o 7.0mm/10a (Eas e n China Me eo ological Cen e 2012) and he annual p ecipi a ion days dec eased
wi h a a e o 3d/10a (Fang e al. 2012). Conside ing less ainy days wi h highe quan i ies o p ecipi a ion, he
in ensi y o s o m e en s was ob iously inc easing o e he pas 30 yea s.
Tempe a u e
Be ween he yea 1873, he i s me eo ological eco d yea in Shanghai, and he ecen yea 2007,
Shanghai’s a e age empe a u e has inc eased wi h a a e o 1.39°C/100a. Un il 1980s, he empe a u e
inc easing a e had been simila o he global end. Howe e , since he 1990s when Shanghai was
accele a ing i s u baniza ion p ocess by opening up he de elopmen o Pudong dis ic , he empe a u e
has d ama ically inc eased wi h a a e o 0.5°C/10a, which is 6.7 imes highe han he global a e (Figu e 1
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and 2). In 2013, he e ha e been 33 days exceeding 35°C, b eaking he 100-yea eco d (Shanghai
Me eo ology Se ice Cen e 2013). The hea -island e ec has been clea ly obse ed. The empe a u e
inc ease in he u ban a ea is 2.5 imes highe han ha in subu ban a ea (Eas e n China Me eo ological
Cen e 2012). U baniza ion has been a majo con ibu o o he local clima e change.
Figu e 1: Compa ison o empe a u e change be ween Shanghai ci y and global land since yea 1873
Adap ed om Eas e n China Me eo ological Cen e 2012
Figu e2: Shanghai u baniza ion p ocess since yea 1961
Adap ed om Wang & Wang 2010
Clima e Change Impac s
Sea le el ise
The obse a ion da a showed ha Shanghai a e age coas al sea le el has isen 115mm since 1978 (Wang &
Zheng 2013). And he sea le el ising a e is 4.7 mm/a, much highe han o he coas al egions in China. In
2000, se e e yphoons which hi China´s eas e n coas caused damage o 11.2 billion RMB (ca. $1.7 billion
USD) (Wang & Zheng 2013). The Shanghai lood wall was designed o p e en ion o 1000-yea sea ide a
5.86m. I sea le el ises by 50 cm, he 1000-yea ide will be a 6.36m, which will no only damage he coas al
lood acili ies bu also dec ease he inne -ci y d ainage capaci y by 20% (Wang & Wang 2010). Ano he
nega i e e ec is sal wa e in usion. I he sea le el ises up 50 cm, sea wa e will be pushed o ups eam by
5.5 km and hen he secu i y o wa e supply won’ be assu ed.
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Inc ease in ene gy consump ion
Unde he double e ec s o global wa ming and he hea -island e ec , Shanghai has expe ienced con inued
high empe a u e days in he ecen summe s. The ai -condi ioning uses 35% o he o al elec ici y load. The
s a is ics showed ha e e y cen ig ade inc ease o peak empe a u e will esul in 377 MW inc ease o
elec ici y load (Wang & Zheng 2013). I a e age empe a u e inc eases by 1°C, i esul s in an addi ional 23
billion kWh ene gy consump ion annually.
Ag icul u e p oduc ion
Shanghai’s os ee pe iod has inc eased om 248 days o 282 days (Eas e n China Me eo ological Cen e
2012), which is somehow good o he g ow h o win e c ops. Howe e , he inc ease o humidi y and
wa ming will also inc ease he ac i i y le el o pes s and i uses, which cause p oblems o he c ops along
he yea .
Public heal h
Longe and highe empe a u e days will inc ease mo ali y a e. Hea wa es ha e complica ed ai pollu ion
p oblems. Ce ain wa m clima e diseases such as Mala ia and Schis osomiasis ha e now highe possibili ies
o be epidemical in Shanghai egion (Wang & Zheng 2013).
C i ical in as uc u es
Ex eme wea he e en s can dis up o des oy he c i ical in as uc u es in many ways. Quan i a i e s udies
a e u gen ly needed o policy make s o unde s and he consequences linked o clima e dis up ion.
S a egy o clima e adap a ion
In he Shanghai’s 12 h Fi e Yea Plan on Ene gy Conse a ion and Clima e Change (Shanghai ci y 2012),
clima e change adap a ion has been linked closely o disas e isk educ ion (DRR). A sho e m goal o his
plan by yea 2015 is o build capaci y in adap a ion and DRR. The key measu es a e summa ized as ollows:
•Es ablish an e icien DRR sys em: Ca ego ize haza ds le els in di e en colo in o de o ala m
gene al public wi h a dis inguished wa ning sign. Each ca ego y o haza ds has clea ly de ined
coun e measu es. Disas e eme gency shel e s will be planned acco ding o popula ion densi y
ac oss he ci y. An ea ly wa ning sys em will be ins alled ac oss ci y depa men s.
•Imp o e wea he o ecas se ices: Fo ins ance, when he highes ( ed) ca ego y s o m is o ecas ed,
he ins an in o ma ion will be o icially dissemina ed o public h ough all he media channels
including social media. Companies should allow employees s aying a home wi h ull sala y.
•Upg ade in as uc u e s anda ds: Acco ding o he clima e change impac assessmen , adjus he
secu i y s anda ds o c i ical in as uc u es such as elec ici y supply, wa e supply, d ainage, gas,
hea ing and elecommunica ion, e c.
•Inc ease capaci y o d ainage sys ems in he impo an looding con ol a eas.
S eng hen adap a ion capaci y in coas al a eas. Se idema ks in sensi i e a eas. Es ablish DRR
scheme including ecological measu es.
Sugges ion
As a coas al megaci y, Shanghai is ulne able when acing clima e dis up ions. Clima e change has long e m
impac s on ci y in as uc u es and people’s li ing. Clima e change adap a ion wo k in Shanghai is s ill in i s
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ea ly s age. When i s cu en 5-yea plan is being implemen ed by 2015, he policy make s should ha e
clea e pic u es on how o make he ci y mo e esilien . Since u baniza ion is a majo con ibu o o local
clima e change, his pape sugges s Shanghai ci y should in eg a e an adap a ion s a egy in o i s u ban
de elopmen s a egy, which shapes he nex gene a ion o he ci y.
Bibliog aphy
Fang, GL. e al. 2012, ‘Analysis o p ecipi a ion change and he cha ac e is ics o disas e ain alls in Shanghai’,
Jou nal o Resou ces and En i onmen in he Yang ze Basin, ol. 21, no. 10.
Shanghai Me eo ological Se ice Cen e , 2013. A ailable om h p://www.sowea he .com/h ml/e77 9935-
c29e-402b-894e-225eb91175c5/in ode ail/11b dc7d-c6 e-4 a2-b15c-23d8239e6367.h ml [28 Janua y
2014]
Eas e n China Me eo ological Cen e 2012, Assessmen epo o Clima e Change in Eas China, China
Me eo ological P ess, Beijing.
Chen, ZL. e al. 2008, ‘Cha ac e is ics o main na u al disas e s and coping s a egies in Shanghai’, Jou nal o
Eas China No mal Uni e si y, ol. 5, pp. 116-125.
Wang, XR & Wang, Y 2010, Global clima e change and ulne abili y assessmen o es ua y ci y-A case s udy o
Shanghai, Science P ess, Beijing.
Wang, WG & Zheng, GG. 2013, G een book o Clima e Change: Annual epo on ac ions o add ess Clima e
Change, Social Science Academic P ess, Beijing.
Shanghai Ci y Go e nmen 2012, 12 h 5-yea plan on ene gy conse a ion and clima e change.
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Discussing he A e ma h o Two Disas e s in Chile:
The Ques ion o Scale
Vicen e Sando al
Email: icen e.sando [email protected]
In oduc ion
This essay eme ges as pe sonal ou come om he e lec ions and insigh s du ing he DAAD Alumni Summe
School 2013 “Coping wi h Disas e s and Clima e Ex emes” held in Cologne and Bonn, Ge many. Bo h he
combina ion o in e na ional expe s du ing he summe school and he p og ess o my own PhD’s
disse a ion encou aged me o de elop his essay.
In p ac ical e ms, his essay aims o analyse di e en discou ses on scale in o de o use hem as lens o
in e p e he social p oduc ion and ep oduc ion o isk wi hin and h ough di e en geog aphical scales.
In o de o ackle his issue, his essay explo es gene al implica ions in ol ed in he a e ma h o wo
disas e s in Chile: he Chai én olcano e up ion in 2008 and he Maule ea hquake in Feb ua y 2010. In his
ega ds, his essay ques ions: wha possible linkages eme ge be ween he discou se on he social p oduc ion
o isk and he ques ion o scale?
In so doing, he essay adop s a ulne abili y app oach o add ess he p oduc ion o isk as socially
cons uc ed concep –based mainly on wo ks om Ben Wisne e al. (2004), Oma D. Ca dona (2006) and
Camillo Boano and Ragnhild Lund (2011). Likewise, he essay will discuss wo main discou ses on scale – om
geog aphe s o global-ci y heo is s – meanwhile by he end o he essay, i con as s gene al iews o he
a e ma h o hese wo disas e s in Chile.
On add essing he analysis o scale, he main sou ce will eme ge om li e a u e e iew and he use o
discou se analysis me hods, mainly on books and jou nal a icles. As esul o his analysis, a heo e ical
amewo k will be se up in o de o app oach he ques ion o scale wi hin pos -disas e con ex by analysing
he a e ma h o disas e s in Chile. In addi ion, he e iew o eco e y and econs uc ion p ocesses will be
mainly h ough explo ing jou nal a icles as well as a chi al eco ds p oduced by au ho i ies bu also by
NGO’s; epo s, s a is ics, in o ms, among o he s. Mo eo e , media a chi es will p o ide a aluable ma e ial in
he case o Chai én.
The ques ion o scale
The s a ing poin o analysing he ques ion o scale lies on he ension be ween he so-called ‘ adi ional’
and ‘c i ical’ pe spec i es. The ea ly wo ks o Neil B enne du ing 1990’s and hen in 2000’s p o ide a
his o ical s andpoin o he eme gence o c i ical pe spec i es agains he adi ional iews on geog aphical
scale.
B enne (1998) s a s his analysis unde he assump ion ha du ing many yea s mos o social esea che s
ha e neglec ed he ques ion o scale, specially unde he 1980´s and 1990´s ounds o globaliza ion and
capi alism es uc u ing.
“[T]he p oblema ic o [geog aphical] scale and i s social p oduc ion was s ill gene ally subo dina ed o
analyses o spa ial p ac ices wi hin ixed geog aphical scales: he local, he u ban, he egional, he
na ional and/o he global” (B enne 1998, pp. 459).
On he o he hand, Mon ello (2001) a gues ha geog aphical scale is indispu ably abou size, “ei he ela i e
o absolu e”. Mon ello summa izes h ee meanings o scale gi en by geog aphe s based on he wo k o
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Hudson (1992) and Lam and Qua ochi (1992). Fi s , scale as a ca og aphic de ini ion. This meaning implies
he “depic ed size o a ea u e on a map ela i e o i s ac ual size in he wo ld” (Mon ello 2001, pp. 14771).
This is he mos common unde s anding abou scales, examples could be 1:5 o 1:3000 scale ep esen a ions
which can be ound in maps o models. Second, he analysis scale, which e e s o “ he size o he uni a
which some p oblem is analyzed” (Mon ello 2001, pp. 14771). Fo ins ance, i a esea ch on gene ics includes
a ep esen a i e sample om he en i e indigenous popula ion in Chile, necessa ily i mus concei e i s
geog aphical uni o analysis a na ional le el, so he s udy applies a na ional scale. The hi d meaning is he
phenomenon scale, which conside s “ he size a which geog aphic s uc u es exis and o e which
geog aphic p ocesses ope a e in he wo ld. I is he ' ue' scale o geog aphic phenomena” (Mon ello 2001,
pp. 14772). Acco ding o Lam and Qua ochi (1992), o geog aphe s i is widely assumed ha he scale
ma e s and o en concep s in geog aphy e lec ha phenomena a e scale-dependen ; “Vege a ion s ands
a e smalle han ege a ion egions and linguis ic dialec s a e dis ibu ed o e smalle a eas han languages”
(Lam and Qua ochi 1992: 90). Howe e , geog aphe s a e also awa e ha di e se phenomena can in e ac a
mul iple geog aphical scales (Lam & Qua ochi 1992).
Somehow, Lam and Qua ochi’s wo k cap u es he B enne ’s c i ique on ha he s udies o geog aphical
scales and i s social p oduc ion had been subo dina ed o he analysis o ixed geog aphical scales. Likewise,
global-ci y heo is s such as Swyngedouw (1992) and B enne (1998) p o ide o he sugges i e in ellec ual
iews on he ques ion o scale based on he p o ound economic, social, poli ical and cul u al –bu also
en i onmen al– changes and ans o ma ions en ailed by globaliza ion since 1960´s and 1970´s. Unde
globaliza ion, B enne a gues (1998), he ole o geog aphical scales eme ges ei he p edominan and
cons i u i e o hie a chies and bounda ies o “densely in e wined, o e lapping o ms o e i o ial
o ganiza ion [such as s a es and ci ies]” (B enne 1998, pp. 461).
“In he li e a u e on geog aphical scale, he s a e has been unde s ood la gely h ough i s ole as he
o ganisa ional- e i o ial locus o na ional scale... [B enne elabo a es] a b oade concep ualisa ion o he
e i o ial s a e no only as a si e wi hin which geog aphical scales a e p oduced bu as an impo an
ins i u ional p econdi ion, agen , media o and ou come [o he geog aphical scale]... [Thus], e i o ial
s a e is i sel mul iscala o m o capi alis e i o ial o ganisa ion ha encompasses na ional,
subna ional and sup ana ional [simul aneously”1 (B enne 1998, pp. 469).
In sho , B enne examines he his o ical geog aphy o s a e unde di e en ounds o capi alis es uc u ing
– om 1890s o pos -1970s. In so doing, B enne explains ha he s a e has played di e en oles in he
capi al ci cula ion o e his pe iod, cha ac e izing he mul iscala ole o he s a e du ing he las decades.
B enne ’s examina ion o he mul iscala ole o he s a e is cong uen wi h Wisne ’s e al. (2004) obse a ions
o he ‘ oo causes’ and ‘dynamic p essu es’ in e ening in he p oduc ion o ulne abili y, isk and disas e .
B enne ’s analysis is also consis en wi h Pelling’s (2003) explo a ions on ‘global p essu es’ ac ing on he
cons uc ion o isk.
The e a e many angles om which global-ci y esea che s ha e heo ized and analysed geog aphical scales
unde globaliza ion, bu in gene al hey ag ee in he ac ha he s udy o ci ies, speci ically global ci ies,
should no be longe subo dina ed only o he s udy a one single scale.
Finally, his essay summa izes he global-ci y esea che s app oaches on he ques ion o geog aphical scale
by quo ing Smi h (1992) and Swyngedouw (1992) who ha e desc ibed geog aphical scale as ollows:
1 B enne p o ides empi ical in o ma ion on he mul iscala ole o he s a e in his a icle “Building Eu o- egions...” (2000), and
he mul iscala ole o ci ies as o ms o e i o ial o ganisa ion in “Globalisa ion as e e i o ialisa ion” (1999).
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“The making o places implies he p oduc ion o scale in so a as places a e made di e en om each
o he ; scale is he c ea ion o di e ence no so much be ween places as be ween di e en kinds o places.
[…] The cons uc ion o scale is no simply a spa ial solidi ica ion o ma e ialisa ion o con es ed social
o ces and p ocesses; he co olla y also holds. Scale is an ac i e p ogeni o o speci ic social p ocesses...
Scale dema ca es he si es o social con es , he objec as well as he esolu ion o con es ” (Smi h 1992,
pp. 64).
In Swyngedouw’s wo ds:
“Geog aphical scales a e bo h he ealm and he ou come o he s uggle o e con ol o e
space”(Swyngedouw 1992, pp. 60).
The a e ma h o wo disas e s in Chile
Chai én Volcano E up ion
In May 2008, he Chai én olcano loca ed 10km inland om he ci y o ha name e up ed and caused he
e acua ion and subsequen displacemen o he en i e ci y popula ion, a ound 7000 inhabi an s, including
public o icials and eme gency pe sonnel (De la Ba e a e al. 2011). In he i s day, Chai én ci y’s inhabi an s
we e e acua ed mainly o Pue o Mon and Cas o. Ten days a e he e acua ion, he explosion o he
olcano’s dome caused laha s and loods ha le he ci y o ally uninhabi able (La a 2009). Economic losses
we e es ima ed in US$12 million only by insu ed public buildings and o he US$36 million we e di ec ed o
social suppo o e acua ed –and displaced– people (La a 2009).
Chai én disas e became e iden a e he delay o au ho i ies o deli e ing a plan in he nex mon hs and
yea s. One yea a e o he e up ion, h ee epo s (Mo eno & La a 2008; Mo eno e al. 2008; SERNAGEOMIN
2009) commissioned by he Chilean go e nmen de e mined ha he cu en loca ion o Chai én is highly
p one o new e up ions and seismic ac i i ies. Due o he la e , in Janua y 2009 he go e nmen announced
ha he e will be no econs uc ion o Chai én (Muñoz 2009) and he e will be no in es men o any kind in
he his o ic loca ion bu al e na i e plans based on he displacemen o Chai én o o he sa e zones will be
de eloped. Two yea s a e he e up ion, in 2010, San a Ba ba a was chosen as he loca ion o he New
Chai én (Rami ez 2010), howe e he same yea a massi e ea hquake s oke he sou he n-cen al a ea o he
coun y killing a ound 500 people, a ec ing o he one million people, and p oducing mo e han US$30
billion in losses (EM-DAT 2013), and plans o he eloca ion o he New Chai én we e s opped (Rami ez
2010).
By 2011 mo e han 250 people had e u ned o Chai én, li ing wi hou access o basic se ices such as
po able wa e and elec ici y (Paz 2011) as well as heal h and secu i y se ices. Likewise, people who decided
o mo e o o he owns and ci ies el o e whelmed by deb and o he economic p oblems, and had
p oblems in in eg a ing hemsel es in o hei new communi ies (Paz 2011).
In he case o people who decided o e u n o Chai én, i seems clea ha hey a e a highe isk han o he
Chai én’s inhabi an s who decided o s ay in hos ci ies. The la e can be explained because o he loca ion,
he p oximi y o he olcano, he isola ion o he ci y due o he des uc ion o key anspo and
communica ion in as uc u e, and so on. Howe e , analyzing wi h mo e de ails, nei he e u ned people and
displaced people ha e been able o a leas es o e hei p e-disas e li es, on he con a y, hey a e a mo e
isk han be o e. Wha his essay discusses is ha he lack o au ho i ies´ coo dina ion bo h egional and
na ional o add essing ei he he econs uc ion o displacemen o he ci y, ha e unde mined people´s
oppo uni ies o eco e y a e he disas e . F om a geog aphy pe spec i e, scale isk seems placing a local
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le el, wi hin Cha ién’s u ban ame, neglec ing he ac ha poli ical p ocesses bo h a egional and na ional
le el ha e pa icipa ed in he p oduc ion o ha isk. Howe e , om a social-cons uc ion-o - isk pe spec i e,
and de ising he PAR model (Wisne e al. 2004), he p oduc ion o isk seems o be nes ed in he lack o
au ho i ies coo dina ion and will o sol e he p oblem, among o he s a he han physical and me ely local.
So, al hough isk can eme ge locally i is impo an o conside he possibili y ha unde lying ac o s on he
p oduc ion o ulne abili y can be nes ed and un olded om, and h ough o he geog aphical scales.
Likewise, i is impo an o see ha he Chai én disas e is no only loca ed wi hin ci y’s bounda ies bu i
became a egional –and also na ional– issue when displaced people could no e u n o Chai én o ound
al e na i e solu ions e en i e yea s a e he olcano’s e up ion.
Maule, Chile Ea hquake 2010
In Feb ua y 2010, an ea hquake wi h a magni ude o 8.8 Rich e scale, s oke sou he n-cen al Chile a ec ing
six egions which inhabi a ound 80 pe cen o he coun y’s o al popula ion (INE 2002). In Janua y 2011, he
Chilean Minis y o In e nal A ai s (Minis e io del In e io de Chile 2011) announced he inal dea h oll o 525
ic ims and 25 people missing. Acco ding o Ma ke Wa ch WSJ (2010), he “economic damage in Chile could
ange be ween $15 billion and $30 billion, abou 10% o 15% o he coun y's GDP”. Likewise, he Casen Pos -
Ea hquake Su ey (La anaga and He e a 2011) demons a ed ha 8.8 pe cen o he o al six- egions’
popula ion esul ed wi h hei homes des oyed o se e ely damaged by he e en s –1,150 million people
and mo e han 350,000 houses–, and a ec ing especially poo people. This epo also e ealed ha poo e
people in Chile ha e a h ee imes highe p obabili y o being a ec ed by physical e en s han iche people
in he same a ea, mainly because o building ma e ials, loca ion in disas e p one a eas and weak social
ne wo k o cope wi h pos -disas e e ec s.
In o al 200,000 people we e displaced in o empo a y shel e s, om which 1,300 amilies we e s ill li ing in
hose “ empo a y” solu ions, mainly in Maule and Bio-Bio egions, by 2012 (Pe asso 2011).
Al hough au ho i ies ecognize he ole o po e y in he p oduc ion o ulne abili y and he e o e isk, in
gene al neglec unde lying ac o s beyond bounda ies o a ec ed a eas. Fo ins ance, he une en u ban
de elopmen h oughou he coun y as esul o a geog aphical cen aliza ion policies du ing las decades –
e.g. San iago concen a es one- hi d o o al Chile’s popula ion, 40% o na ional GPD, among o he s (B ehme
2010).
Thus, he ques ion o scale in he p oduc ion o isk eme ges he e suppo ed by he ise o ulne abili y
app oaches. Ques ions abou how decades o geog aphical cen aliza ion based on neolibe alism policies in
Chile has placed people, who li e a away om he Chilean capi al and i s de elopmen , a isk? B ehme
(2010) poin ed ou ha economic p essu es o egional compe i i eness we e d i e s o land-use planning
co up ion in Concepción, whe e se e al buildings we e buil in disas e p one a eas and which inally
esul ed des oyed by he ea hquake in 2010.
Closing ema ks
Since disas e isk may be concei ed as non-na u al phenomena and he e o e social, poli ical, economic and
en i onmen al dimensions a e analy ically implica ed in o he p oduc ion and ep oduc ion o isk, we
should no longe concei e “spa ial scales as p e-gi en and ‘na u al’ a enas o social in e ac ion” (B enne
1998: 460). In o he wo ds, geog aphical scales ha e been in e p e ed in disas e isk s udies as me ely
“a enas” whe e social, poli ical, economic and en i onmen al dimensions ake place. And his in e p e a ion
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a e mos ly dep i ed om adi ional de elopmen ac i i ies and “p i ileged” – hose a e poo bu ge mo e
a en ion by all de elopmen pa ne s. Fo de ails o his classi ica ion eade s a e e e o ead Mallick’s
esea ch pape on “Cyclone shel e s and hei loca ional sui abili y: an empi ical analysis om coas al
Bangladesh” (Mallick 2014). He e, ed do s ep esen he g oup o “social sup eme“, blue do s he g oup o
“p i ileged” and ligh g een do s he g oup o “middle income)” esponden s. I u ns ou ha only a ely, he
membe s o he Social Sup eme g oup a e esiding ou side he ca chmen a ea. Conside ing a adius o 1.5
kilome es, in gene al, 90 pe cen o all esponden s’ households a e close o a cyclone shel e ; conside ing a
ca chmen a ea o 1 kilome e, 65 pe cen o hem a e close o a cyclone shel e ; ye , only 25 pe cen o he
su eyed households li e wi hin a dis ance o 500 me e om he cyclone shel e . Abo e, he e a e
households which a e e en loca ed ou side o he de ined ca chmen a eas o cyclone shel e s. I is e iden
he e ha as he ca chmen a ea dec eases he closeness o he cyclone shel e o Social Sup eme g oup also
inc eases (Table 1).
Ca chmen a ea o
cyclone Shel e
% o Social Sup eme
inside he ca chmen
(3% o he sample)
% o middle income
inside he ca chmen
(79% o he sample)
% o p i ileged inside
he ca chmen (18% o
he sample)
500 me e
60
35
45
1000 me e
87
55
72
1500 me e
97
73
80
Table 1: Dis ibu ion o esponden s g oups acco ding o he cyclone-shel e ca chmen
Sou ce: Au ho ’s ield su ey 2009 and 2010
In he nex s ep, he plin h heigh o he esponden s’ esiden ial houses was included in o he analysis. In
case o he c e asses ha o en occu du ing s o m su ges, he inland esiden ial a eas a e looded. The
a e age heigh o a s o m lood is be ween 3 o 4 me e s abo e mean sea le el (Dasgup a e al. 2009).
The e o e, he loo o he dwellings which a e usually blocked du ing he s o m su ge mus be buil a leas 4
me e s abo e sea le el. The highe a plin h o a house, he less i s inhabi an s a e a ec ed by he impac s o a
lood. By means o he digi al ele a ion model and he plin h heigh abo e he g ound i was ound ou ha
he a e age plin h heigh is only 3.5 me e s abo e sea le el. I he embankmen s along he coas b eak o a e
o e opped by idal-su ges, li ing space is highly impe illed o be inunda ed by lood wa es abo e 3.5
me e s. Excep o he embankmen s’ dike peaks; he e a e only ew a eas ha a e si ua ed highe han 4
me e s abo e sea le el. Conside ing he spa ial dis ibu ion i is now possible o deduce he p obabili ies o a
dwelling’s des uc ion including he whole sequence o e ec s.
P epa edness
Exempla ily, he nex s ep o he analy ical concep in eg a es a cyclone p epa a ion measu e. Some o he
basic in o ma ion o he esponden s is p esen ed in Table 2. The ecep ion o ea ly wa nings is p e- equisi e
o he inhabi an s o ake p epa a o y ac ions in case o an imminen disas ous inciden . The su ey e eals
ha app oxima ely all esponden s had ecei ed he ea ly wa ning, whe eas only 30 pe cen ook ac ion o
p epa edness, bu why? Answe o his ques ion depends on he ea liness o ecei ing ea ly wa ning (Table
2). Less han 1 pe cen ecei ed ea ly wa ning mo e han 24 hou s be o e he e en , and he e o e, hey we e
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In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch
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p epa ed o he cyclone. Among his g oup, o ins ance, 53 pe cen ied up hei houses’ oo s o ees,
whe eas o he s emo ed hei ood o a sa e place.
Pa icula s
Indica o s
Value
Ca ego ies o esiden ial
house
% Ku cha
59
% Semi-pucca
39
% Pucca
2.1
Adequacy o pe capi a
loo a ea a io
% Inadequa e loo a ea a io o he amily
92.2
% Adequa e loo a ea a io o he amily
7.8
Plin h le el ca ego y (in
me e )
% Less han 1 me e
49.3
% 1.00 – 1.50 me e
38.1
% Mo e han 1.5 me e
12.5
Cos o esiden ial house
(RH) cons uc ion
ca ego y
% Less han 400 USD
15.4
% 400 – 650 USD
72.2
% Mo e han 650 USD
12.4
Accessibili y o cyclone
shel e /p ima y school
% Com o accessibili y (less han 10 minu es)
39.2
% Mode a e accessibili y (10 - 30 minu es)
39.6
% Ha d o each (mo e han 30 minu es)
21.2
Accessibili y o d inking
wa e sou ces
% Com o accessibili y (less han 10 minu es)
70.1
% Mode a e accessibili y (10 - 30 minu es)
28.8
% Ha d o each (mo e han 30 minu es)
1.1
Able o
unde s and he
ea ly wa ning
% Unde s and ea ly wa ning
71.8
% Do no unde s and he ea ly wa ning
28.2
Ea liness o ecei ing
ea ly wa ning
% P epa a ion is no possible (less han 6 hou s)
77.6
% Ha d o be p epa ed (7 o 24 hou s)
22.3
% Possible o be p epa ed (mo e han 24 hou s)
0.2
Table 2: Summa y s a is ics o esponden s
Sou ce: De i ed om ield da a o 2009 and 2010
Why ha e so ew esponden s been able o p epa e hemsel es o he cyclone? Two explica ions we e mos
o en men ioned: he esponden s ei he indica ed no o ha e had enough ime o o ha e el helpless. The
biog aphical in e iews e eal ha many inhabi an s had been su p ised by he onse o he cyclone.
Shahabuddin, a 70-yea old man om he illage o Sha ankhola epo ed: “I came all o sudden, we el
pa alyzed”. The second example was p o ided by a 38-yea old woman, Ka una Bala Dashi om he illage o
Koy a. She said: “When cyclone Aila hi , he wa e ose hip-high wi hin 20 o 30 minu es. All o us go on ou
boa s and eached o he ew hings we could escue.”
Coping
In he amewo k o his s udy i is essen ial o know whe e he a ec ed people s ayed du ing he cyclone,
whe e hey ha e sea ched o and ound a sa e place, and which ha e been he shel e s in he esea ch a ea.
As men ioned ea lie , cyclone shel e s a e impo an e uges and a e he basis o he coun y’s p e en ion
concep . Why did no he ic ims o cyclone y o each a cyclone shel e ? The g oup discussions and
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household su eys ga e in o ma ion on his ques ion. The g oup has collec i ely discussed and app ecia ed
he dis ance o he shel e s and how o en hey had been used. The esul shows only a mino i y o
inhabi an s sough e uge in he cyclone shel e s, al hough hey o e ed su icien in ake capaci y. Why i is
so? The esul s o a p incipal componen analysis o e explica ions why he mino i y o inhabi an s did no
use he shel e s: he ecep ion o he ea ly wa ning plays he mos impo an ole, ollowed by he indi idual
household’s p epa edness. Su ely, condi ion o he esponden s’ dwelling plays a key ole in hei decision-
aking. People assume ha hey can s ill ake measu es e en on he lood-wa es a i al i hey pe cei e a
conc e e endange men o hei p ope y. Howe e , his is no possible om a dis an shel e as he social
s a us is decisi e, oo, o ins ance a me s o day-labou e s. E en ually, i was epo ed du ing ield su ey
ha due o cul u al easons, women ake less o en e uge in cyclone shel e s han men. Indi idual posi i e
expe ience wi h cyclones howe e encou ages people o sea ch o e uge in a cyclone shel e .
Recons uc ion and ehabili a ion
When a cyclone has passed he egion, he ic ims mus o e come he consequences, auma a and
damages in o de o be able o li e on. I is no always possible o hem o cope wi h hese challenges on
hei own as esou ces a e ei he inexis en o ha e been des oyed as well. Humani a ian o ganiza ions and,
as mos impo an ac o , go e nmen should suppo hem in his si ua ion. Some imes, also p i a e
ini ia i es o e eme gency elie . Howe e , in he esea ch a ea, hese measu es o eme gency assis ance a e
une enly dis ibu ed in e ms o space, which can only pa ly be explained by di e ing accessibili y. Poli ical
and social assessmen and he dis ibu ion o powe play a majo ole. Eme gency elie p ojec s a e i s and
o emos implemen ed a places whe e hey can be gea ed owa ds he media ha is close o minimizing
a ic connec ions o ho el, gues houses. In such p e e en ial a eas, dono s compe e while he pe iphe al
egions ha dly bene i om any eme gency assis ance.
In ecen yea s, he Go e nmen o Bangladesh and o he de elopmen pa ne s in he coun y (namely
Uni ed Na ions De elopmen P og amme (UNDP) Japan In e na ional Coope a ion Agency (JICA), Ge man
Socie y o In e na ional Coope a ion (GIZ), Eu opean Union (EU), e c.), was planned abou 1.4 billion USD on
spending o he eco e y om he damage o cyclone Sid and Aila. The ques ion is how hose unds we e
dis ibu ed amongs he ic ims. 57% o esponden s o he su ey belie e ha local poli icians ha e used
hei powe in he dis ibu ion o elie . Simila esul s a e de i ed om g oup discussions and biog aphical
in e iews.
Ex e nal suppo s and esponse o a ec ed socie y some imes a e also obse ed as “dependency on o he s”
ha inc eases he expec a ion o ex e nal suppo s. Pa icula ly, i someone keep ge ing help om o he s,
he/she lose his/he own abili y o educe/deal wi h a isk, i he e a e many di e en ways ha he ic ims can
bene i hem o use hei be e chance. And long e m, hey expec a lo o hem and hus o calcula e he
bes way. This assump ion is summa ized using a biog aphical in e iews, he esponden , M . Alam Mia on
Majhe cha illage Sou hkhali Union, had said:
"Why should I ebuild my b oken house? A e Cyclone Sid came many NGOs o build my house. A ha ime
I made a mis ake because I ha e accep ed he suppo o he cha i y Ca i as Bangladesh. I I had aken he
house o he o ganiza ion Muslim Aid, oday I had a e y good house. I wai his ime un il hey come o me,
o e en going o y o go o hem."
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This in e iew shows ha he long- e m expec a ions o ex e nal assis ance inc eases. Bu i he e is no mo e
elie , he a ec ed people should con inue o li e and o his hey mus also wo k o secu e hei li elihoods,
same as hei inhe i ance did du ing 1950s when he e we e li e ally no ex e nal aid p og ams a ailable.
Resis ance/Adap a ion
Howe e , e en i he eme gency elie o ganiza ions s op hei p og ams, people mus li e on and secu e
hei li elihood. How do he people a ec ed eac on his si ua ion? They could sell hei own esou ces, o
ins ance, 17 pe cen o he esponden s ha e sold hei c ops, ca le o jewelle y. 14 pe cen o he
in e iewees ha e changed hei employmen due o he ex en o damages, hei dependency on he
exploi a ion o he Sunda bans and he limi ed oppo uni ies o pa icipa e in econs uc ion wo ks. In mos
cases, he a me s ha e wo ked as ishe men, as in he wake o he cyclone Aila, a mlands we e inunda ed
and could no be longe be cul i a ed. Ye no all he a ec ed could ollow his s a egy and he e o e ook
ou a loan, which became he main sou ce o income o secu e hei li elihood. Abou 80 pe cen o he
su eyed households ha e aken ou loans om di e en mo gagees such as NGOs, banks o local money
lende s. Some o hem ha e bo owed money because an eme gency elie o ganiza ion has asked hem o
do so. Ac ually, aid o ganiza ions ha e o en c ea ed mic oc edi p og ams a e he end o he eme gency
elie , which became one o he mos impo an sou ces o income helping he impo e ished inhabi an s o
su i e. Some o he inhabi an s ha e le he illage. Those who had ecei ed only li le help and had
bo owed subs an ial amoun s o money ha e mos o en mig a ed o nea by owns. 34 pe cen o he
su eyed households epo ed ha a leas one o hei amily membe s had le he illage. This si ua ion
which ecu s a e e e y simila inciden explains o he apid g ow h o ci ies and also leads o a g adual
change o he a ec ed socie y.
Discussion
The esul s in selec ed communi ies show ha socio-economic condi ions o he su eyed households a e
he mos impo an ac o s in coping wi h he e ec s o cyclones. This means ha i he households in he
communi ies a e echnically, socially and economically s ong enough, hey can esis wi h ad e se
consequences o cyclone. Howe e , esul s shows ha elie e o s we e exploi ed by hose in powe . I
means hose in powe o hose conside ed as “social sup eme” ha e a e y big in luence on he local decision
making p ocess. They suppo hei dependen g oups and ein o ce his. This leads o social ma ginaliza ion
as a esul o a disas e and also o s eng hening o “pa on-clien -dependency” in he socie y. The cu en
s a e o he coas al socie y is also a esul o social p ocesses du ing he equen de as a ing cyclones o
o he na u al e en s. In addi ion, he social powe o di e en ac o s has a s ong spa ial pa e n,
co esponding o a ec s esul ing om he eac ion o hose a ec ed and mi iga ed. These spa ial pa e ns
a e an impo an key o unde s anding he e ec s o any kind o disas e , as well as he subsequen elie and
p e en ion measu es. The e o e, o disas e p epa edness planning a holis ic app oach o unde pinning he
concep o indi idual ulne abili y moni o ing is impo an , whe e he ulne abili y is de ined on he cul u al,
socio-economic, poli ical and en i onmen al con ex o he ic ims. The esul s o his esea ch demons a es
he need o such a spa ially di e en ia ed analysis and planning, including a ulne abili y a las in he sense
o a comp ehensi e da abase, a e he mos use ul measu e o analysis and de elopmen o plans and
measu es. This kind o analysis should be a help ul guide o he de elopmen o concep s and s a egies o
u u e isk managemen . I will also be an ins umen ha shows empo al moni o ing o he e ec s o
disas e s and elie and hus can also be used o e alua e policies o ex e nal in e en ions.
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Acknowledgemen
This esea ch was suppo ed unde a Doc o al Disse a ion Resea ch G an s om Ca holic Academic
Exchange Se ices (KAAD), Ge many and Field Resea ch G an om Ka ls uhe House o Young Scien is s
(KHYS) o Ka ls uhe Ins i u e o Technology (KIT). Special hanks a e gi en o Gundula Ma ks and Tommasina
Mille o hei suppo s in linguis ic and g amma ical edi s. I am also hank ul o P o . D . Dilip Kuma Du a
and Ms. Zakia Sul ana o Khulna Uni e si y, and D . Animesh K. Gain o Pos dam Ins i u e o Clima e Resea ch
(PIK), Be lin o hei aluable commen s on he ea lie e sion o his pape . Though ul commen s om he
anonymous e iewe s a e also since ely app ecia ed.
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Jou nal o Range Managemen , ol. 42, no 4, pp. 266 – 274.
Wisne , B & Luce HR 1993, 'Disas e Vulne abili y: Scale , Powe and Daily Li e', GeoJou nal, ol. 30, no. 2, pp.
127–140.
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No , C. e al. (Eds.) 2014
Inc easing Haza ds – Inc easing Policies – Inc easing Usage o
Resilience? Su ey amongs he Pa icipan s o he 2013 DAAD
Alumni Summe School
Alexande Feke e, Ch is iane G inda & Celia No
Email: alexande . eke e@ h-koeln.de / ch is iane.g inda@ h-koeln.de / celia.no @ h-koeln.de
Figu e 1: The nominal su ey esul s, conduc ed pe email on Ap il 23-25 2014, in o e iew
Ques ion 1: A e he e any indica ions in you wo king en i onmen o in you coun y in gene al o :
Inc easing o dec easing clima e change ela ed haza ds?
No
Bangladesh: “No inc ease o CC ela ed haza ds. The si ua ion has no changed much. We e en ha e a e y
lo ely sp ing wi h su icien ain so a , bu he e ha e been egions hi by hail al eady.”
Indonesia: “I is supposed ha clima e change ela ed haza ds dec ease in Indonesia. Indonesian
Go e nmen P og am p o ided people some ac ions o be awa e o hem, i.e. Na ional and Regional Ac ion
Mo emen s on G eenhouse E ec s.”
Moldo a: “No inc ease o CC ela ed haza ds. The si ua ion has no changed much. We e en ha e a e y
lo ely sp ing wi h su icien ain so a , bu he e ha e been egions hi by hail al eady."
Yes
Chile: “In Chile he e is an inc easing o CC ela ed haza ds as well as awa eness by people and au ho i ies
abou hose.”
China(A): “Acco ding o China Na ional Clima e Cen e , ain alls inc eases by 4% han a e age s anda d in
China, while dis ibu ed une enly in 2013. O e all empe a u e inc eased by 0.6℃ compa ed wi h a e age
s anda d. Pa icula , 31 Typhoon gene a ed in he No hwes Paci ic and Sou h China Sea a ea, 5.5 incidences
mo e han no mal numbe . Example o ex eme wea he in 2014: loods, landslides and geological e en s
esul ing om mel ing snow ha e a ec ed no h-wes e n Xinjiang since ea ly Ma ch. I also su e ed om a
a e Ap il snow.”
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In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch
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China(B): “The scien i ic e idence a e s ill no solid o link haza ds wi h clima e change.”
Ghana: “The e is inc easing clima e change ela ed haza d. The coun y Ghana is seeing mo e loods a some
geog aphical loca ions and mo e d ough a o he places”
Ruanda: “Yes.”
Tu key: “Though, i is ela ed o in o ma ion echnologies and social media news, o eal haza d e en s, he
egis e ed clima e change ela ed haza d numbe s a e inc easing. And he isibili y o CC e en s’ e ec s a e
inc easing in coun y ange.”
Undecided
Sou h A ica: “Fo his do you mean in science in gene al? O in popula media? Again I ha e no idea... I guess
I can’ commen on his one! Unless I did a quick sea ch o he e m, because my answe would be
comple ely biased.”
Ques ion 2: A e he e any indica ions in you wo king en i onmen o in you coun y in gene al o :
Inc easing o dec easing clima e change adap a ion policies o ac ions?
No
None
Yes
Bangladesh: “Yes - inc easing CCA policies. Fi s o all, he Go e nmen is p epa ing a new S a egy o
Ag icul u e o 2010-2014. Then we ha e inc easing in e es om he pa o Minis y o En i onmen . The e
is also a g ea accele a ion ega ding his subjec gene a ed by o eign s uc u e (GIZ, Wo ld Bank).”
Chile: “Yes. In he las yea s, and speci ically his yea , se e al public policies ha e been announced owa ds
he mi iga o y measu es such as a s ic con ol o e CO2 emissions and p o ec ion o ecosys ems.”
China(A): “The e is imp o emen in policy, o example:
•O icial elease o “The na ional s a egy o adap ing o clima e change” in No embe 2013,
iden i ying adap a ion objec i es, key asks, he egional pa e n and sa egua ds measu es. Unde
his guideline, egional adminis a ions ha e issued acco ding clima e change adap a ion policy and
a ge s, such as Chongqing, Shanghai and Gansu.
•Call o enhancing da a collec ion and e alua ion on ex eme wea he and disas e s since 2013
Augus
•In e es ingly, a lo ocus o clima e s a egies ha e emphasized on smog p oblem. G een Pape on
Clima e Change issued by CSA also la gely ocused on smog, al hough i ecognizes pollu ion is he
majo cause o he han clima e change. Acco dingly, mos clima e change wo king g oups a e also
ocusing on igh ing smog p oblem.”
China(B): “China has adap a ion s a egy in i s clima e change whi e pape . Some pilo p ojec s a e
unde going.”
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No , C. e al. (Eds.) 2014
Ghana: “The e is an inc ease in clima e change adap a ion ac ions.”
Indonesia: “I is supposed ha Indonesian Go e nmen is mo e conce n on Clima e Change Adap a ion by
adminis e ing and implemen ing egula ions o policies, e.g. many companies which a e esponsible o
o es i e cases a e b ough o he cou and go punished.”
Moldo a: “Yes - inc easing CCA policies. Fi s o all, he Go e nmen is p epa ing a new S a egy o
Ag icul u e o 2010-2014. Then we ha e inc easing in e es om he pa o Minis y o En i onmen . The e
is also a g ea accele a ion ega ding his subjec gene a ed by o eign s uc u e (GIZ, Wo ld Bank)."
Ruanda: “Yes.”
Tu key: “Especially in las decade in Tu key, he e is an inc ease on clima e change adap a ion policies o
ac ions. These a e isible wi h ‘Tu key’s Na ional Clima e Change Adap a ion S a egy and Ac ion Plan’ which
published in 2012.”
Undecided
Sou h A ica: “I would guess a he momen ha CC haza ds a e p e y much as equen as hey ha e been in
my adul expe ience (10 yea s). I ’s a li le di icul o ell wi h biased p ess only epo ing ce ain e en s in he
wo ld.”
Ques ion 3: A e he e any indica ions in you wo king en i onmen o in you coun y in gene al o :
Inc easing o dec easing usage o he e m esilience?
No
China(B): “E en ha d o ind a eally good ansla ion o esilience.”
Yes
Bangladesh: “Yes - inc easing.”
Chile: “Yes. An inc easing o he e m esilience. Bo h by schola s and au ho i ies, he e m esilience ha e
been used in media and academic ci cles. Howe e , I ha e ound ha bo h g oups o en misuse he e m,
using i as synonym o ' esis an '.”
China(A): “The g aph below is sea ch esul on CNKI (China Na ional Knowledge In as uc u e): publica ion
numbe s wi h key wo ds: Clima e change + esilience. I shows ob ious inc easing esea ch ocus on
esilience in clima e change. Howe e , in he mass media, i seems ha mos ly used e m is “Adap a ion” (适
应). Resilience is ei he mixed wi h “Adap a ion” o e e ed as non-mains eam wo d 恢复力.”
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In eg a i e Risk and Secu i y Resea ch
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Figu e 2: Numbe o publica ions wi h key wo ds “Clima e Change + esilience” a ailable on China Na ional Knowledge In as uc u e
(CNKI)
Ghana: “The e is an inc ease in he usage o he e m esilience.”
Indonesia: “I is supposed ha he usage o esilience e m inc eases. By ad oca ing and dissemina ing
knowledge people in ulne able a eas a e eady o cope wi h haza ds and will ha e sho du a ion o
auma ic pe iod.”
Moldo a: “Yes - inc easing.”
Ruanda: “Yes.”
Tu key: “Tu key s ands on disas e p one egions. So Tu kish academicians and ci izens a e amilia o he
e m esilience. Bu in las decade he e m esilience is commonly used wi h Clima e Change e en s.”
Undecided
Sou h A ica: “No idea... I would guess hey a e inc easing. My expe ience is comple ely limi ed o Sou h
A ica, plus a li le o Belgium a he momen , bu I eally don' ollow hei poli ics/policies ega ding CCA a
all. The e is also a la ge gap in SA be ween policy make s and he es o us (ci ilians/scien is s e c). So I eally
don' know exac ly whe he policies/ac ions a e inc easing in a posi i e way owa ds CCA...”
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