Ocean-C yosphe e Exchange in An a c ica: Impac s on Clima e and he Ea h Sys em
Speake : To s en Alb ech (PIK)
E en : OCEAN ICE annual mee ing in Copenhagen
Da e: Tuesday Sep . 16 h, 2025
Disclaime : Funded by he Eu opean Union. Views and opinions exp essed a e howe e hose o he au ho s only
and do no necessa ily eflec hose o he Eu opean Union o Eu opean Resea ch Execu i e Agency (REA). Nei he
he Eu opean Union no he g an ing au ho i y can be held esponsible o hem.
UK Pa ne s a e unded by UK Resea ch and Inno a ion (UKRI) unde he UK go e nmen ’s Ho izon Eu ope unding
Gua an ee.
Upda e on TIPMIP ac i i ies
h ps:// ipmip.o g
The Tipping Poin s Modelling
In e compa ison P ojec
o e iew
See wha
happens
Make i
happen
I has
happened
Expe imen
simula ion ime
o cing
Winkelmann e al., TIPMIP amewo k pape (in e iew)
TIPMIP-ESM P o ocol
Jones e al., TIPMIP-ESM p o ocol (submi ed.)
Expe imen
simula ion ime
o cing
●Aligned in empe a u e space
●P o ocols o concen a ion- and emissions-d i en models
●9 models al eady pa icipa ed, mo e o come
●se ing up TIPMIP da abase and “How- o” page o da a
download/submission
TIPMIP-Ocean P o ocol
Expe imen
simula ion ime
o cing
A. CO2+hosing
•Wha is he impac o an AMOC collapse a 2°C wa ming? Can i be ollowed by a
eco e y?
• Closely linked o TipMIP-ESM :
• Ramp up un wi h cons an CO2 emissions yielding a wa ming o ~ 2°C/cen u y
wi h inc easing eshwa e om 0 o 0.3 S o 0.1 S in 100 yea s
• Ze o emission un s a ing a GWL=2°C, b anching o wi h eshwa e elease
kep a 0.3 S o 0.1 S
• Ramp down simula ion wi h CO2 emissions ha a e he nega i e o hose used
in, b anching o wi h eshwa e elease kep a 0.3 S o 0.1 S a e 50 yea s.
• S op hosing and un un il s abilisa ion a 0°C wa ming and 0 S hosing (checking
eco e y a e a collapse (i any)
B. G eenland mel ing in ecen pas and u u e
•How did/will he AMOC espond o ealis ic and p ojec ed sou ces o G eenland eshwa e ?
•Inse in he model G eenland Ice Shee Mel ing conside ing his o ical
G eenland Ice Mel ing amoun s ( om Manko e al. 2025) + 80 yea s
p ojec ions o mel ing conside ing Ice-Shee s models ensemble wi h di e en
wa ming scena ios 2°C o 4°C
C. NAHosMIP
•Will AMOC eco e a e signi ican eshwa e pe u ba ion?
•S a ing om piC l, NaHosMIP (Jackson e al., 2013) uni o m NA hosing o 0.3
S o 0.1 S
D. 8.2 ky e en
•Wha do CMIP models say abou AMOC esponse and impac s o Lau en ide- ype eshwa e elease?
•Mimic he 8.2ky e en : Ramp-up o 0.6S /cen u y leads o a o al amoun o
15 S , as sugges ed in Loch e e al. (2019) (co esponding o he same amoun
o wa e as 50 yea s o NAHosMIP)
Thanks o Didie Swingedouw, Lau a Jackson, Wilbe Weije , Aixue Hu and Nicole Lau ean i!
h ps:// ipmip.o g/ocean-domain
TIPMIP-Ice
-Cu ency pilo expe imen s and ESM choice and
p ep ocessing
- P o ocol d a planned o Dec 2025
- Expe imen submission ideally July 2026
- En isaged manusc ip submission ideally Dec 2026
-Clima e amp-up (~200y )
- Clima e s abiliza ion / commi men (a
2°C and 4°C o ≥1000y )
-Clima e e e sibili y ( o 1.5°C o
≥1000y )
-Con ol a p e-indus ial clima e
based on TIPMIP-ESM expe imen s
TIPMIP-Ice
-Cu ency pilo expe imen s and ESM choice and
p ep ocessing
- P o ocol d a planned o Dec 2025
- Expe imen submission Jul 2026
- En isaged manusc ip submission Dec 2026
TIPMIP da es
- Global Tipping Poin s Repo 2025: publica ion & p esen a ion a COP30
- WCRP/IPCC mee ing on Tipping Poin s: 26-28 No 2025 in Pa is
- Domain Leads mee ing: 2-4 Dec 2025 in Po sdam
- TIPMIP Gene al Assembly: 4-6 Ma ch 2026 in Tokyo
(ahead o CMIP Communi y Wo kshop)
h ps:// ipmip.o g
