Policy B ie
Ad ancing Clima e Adap a ion h ough AI-D i en Ea ly Wa ning Sys ems and
Sou h-Sou h Coope a ion
Au ho : Do cas Chepki ui, Da e: No embe 2025
Keywo ds: Clima e Adap a ion, A i icial In elligence (AI), Ea ly Wa ning Sys ems, Technical Coope a ion, Resilience,
Sou h-Sou h Coope a ion
Key Messages
1. AI-powe ed Ea ly Wa ning Sys ems (EWS) a e a p omising solu ion o s eng hening clima e adap a ion, bu
ace implemen a ion ba ie s in many Global Sou h coun ies.
2. Sou h-Sou h coope a ion, buil on mu ual lea ning and local inno a ion, can d i e scalable, e hical, and
con ex -sensi i e AI adop ion.
3. Embedding AI in o na ional clima e amewo ks, coupled wi h inclusi e communi y design and digi al capaci y-
building, can signi ican ly enhance esilience o clima e shocks.
Execu i e Summa y
As clima e shocks in ensi y, ulne able coun ies in he Global Sou h ace moun ing challenges in an icipa ing and
managing isks. A i icial In elligence (AI)–d i en Ea ly Wa ning Sys ems (EWS) o e ans o ma i e po en ial o
s eng hening clima e adap a ion h ough imely o ecas ing and imp o ed disas e p epa edness. This policy b ie
explo es how AI inno a ions, when embedded in inclusi e and e hical amewo ks, can enhance clima e esilience.
G ounded in Sou h-Sou h coope a ion and guided by Inno a ion Di usion Theo y, i highligh s how pee lea ning,
sha ed digi al in as uc u e, and communi y-led inno a ion can accele a e adop ion. Mains eaming AI h ough e hical
go e nance, digi al in as uc u e, and coope a i e pa ne ships can adically enhance clima e esilience in he Global
Sou h.
Policy Con ex
Clima e- ela ed disas e s such as d ough s, loods, and hea wa es a e inc easing in equency and in ensi y. While AI-
powe ed EWS can ans o m ea ly wa ning capabili ies, adop ion emains une en due o limi ed in as uc u e, weak
coo dina ion, e hical conce ns, and exclusion o local oices. Sou h-Sou h and iangula coope a ion, de ined by pee
lea ning, join inno a ion, and sha ed go e nance, p o ides a compelling al e na i e o adi ional op-down
app oaches. By os e ing sha ed lea ning, co-c ea ion, and equi able access o echnology, such coope a ion can
p omo e scalable and con ex -sensi i e AI adop ion.
Ba ie s o Equi able AI Adop ion
Ba ie
Desc ip ion
E hical and go e nance gaps
Algo i hmic bias, da a p i acy isks, and lack o egula o y o e sigh
Weak ins i u ional coo dina ion
F agmen ed go e nance s uc u es hinde c oss-sec o al clima e planning.
Communi y exclusion
Minimal pa icipa ion o local ac o s unde mines he usabili y and legi imacy o
AI ools.
Digi al di ide
Limi ed access o he in e ne , elec ici y, and digi al in as uc u e hinde s AI
up ake, especially in u al a eas.
Policy Recommenda ions
Policy Focus
S a egic Ac ion
In eg a e AI in o Na ional Adap a ion
Plans (NAPs)
Mains eam AI applica ions in p io i y sec o s (ag icul u e, wa e , u ban
planning
Es ablish e hical AI guidelines
De elop s anda ds wi h ni ed Na ions En i onmen P og amme (UNEP)
and egional pa ne s o ensu e anspa ency, equi y, and accoun abili y.
S eng hen Sou h-Sou h coope a ion
C ea e AI inno a ion hubs, join esea ch and de elopmen pla o ms, and
pee aining ne wo ks o exchange knowledge and bes p ac ices.
Cen e communi y pa icipa ion
Co-design AI ools wi h local use s o enhance us , ele ance, and
accessibili y
Build digi al capaci y and in as uc u e
In es in human capi al, open da a sys ems, and egional AI labs o enable
scalable, high-impac solu ions
Case S udies a a Glance
Inno a ion Di usion Theo y: A F amewo k o Clima e Tech Adop ion
E e e Roge s’ Inno a ion Di usion Theo y explains how inno a ions sp ead h ough socie ies. I s i e elemen s,
ela i e ad an age, compa ibili y, complexi y, ialabili y, and obse abili y help assess he adop ion po en ial o AI
ools.
In he con ex o AI-d i en clima e adap a ion, he p ocess ypically un olds h ough h ee phases, he knowledge and
pe suasion phase, he decision and implemen a ion phase and he con i ma ion s age. Du ing he knowledge and
pe suasion s age, pee exchange and capaci y-building ini ia i es enhance awa eness and willingness o adop
inno a i e ools. The decision and implemen a ion phase ollows, whe e s ong echnical pa ne ships and localized
pilo p ojec s help ailo AI applica ions o local needs. Finally, in he con i ma ion s age, policy in eg a ion and well-
documen ed success s o ies ein o ce con inued use and long- e m sus ainabili y.
Sou h-Sou h coope a ion accele a es adop ion by sha ing e idence, educing isk, and building local champions.
In e na ional echnical coope a ion helps accele a e his p ocess by lowe ing isks, sha ing e idence, and building local
champions o inno a ion.
Conclusion
AI o e s powe ul oppo uni ies o eshape clima e adap a ion, only i i is deployed equi ably, e hically, and
collabo a i ely. Go e nmen s and de elopmen pa ne s mus u gen ly in eg a e AI in o clima e policy and go e nance.
Technical coope a ion ac oss he Global Sou h mus be deepened o ensu e mu ual lea ning, locally led inno a ion,
and clima e jus ice.
The u u e o clima e esilience is digi al and mus be inclusi e.
Coun y
AI Use Case
Impac
India
Deep lea ning models o monsoon o ecas ing
Imp o ed ag icul u al p epa edness and
educed losses o millions o a me s
Kenya
D ough moni o ing and li es ock mo emen
using mobile-based AI ale s
Inc eased pas o alis esilience, eal- ime
decision-making suppo
B azil
AI-enhanced sa elli e acking o illegal
de o es a ion
Enabled apid en o cemen and conse a ion
h ough eal- ime ale s
Abou he Au ho
Do cas Chepki ui is a public policy and de elopmen p o essional wi h expe ise in en i onmen al sus ainabili y,
humani a ian a ai s, and clima e change. She has wo ked in public adminis a ion, p ojec coo dina ion, and esea ch
ac oss Kenya, Tü kiye, and Eu ope, con ibu ing o ini ia i es in educa ion e o m, e ugee in eg a ion, and local
go e nance. Cu en ly pu suing a PhD in Poli ical Science and Public Adminis a ion a Saka ya Uni e si y, Tu key, he
esea ch explo es clima e policy, ins i u ional go e nance, and adap a ion s a egies in A ican coun ies. Do cas is
commi ed o ad ancing inclusi e, e idence-based app oaches o clima e adap a ion and sus ainable de elopmen .
Email: do cascchepki[email p o ec ed]
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/do cas-chepki ui-261ab9130
