Physics Reach of Future Atmospheric ν experiments

Physics Reach o Fu u e
A mosphe ic expe imen s
ν
I án Ma ínez Sole
XXI Wo kshop on Neu ino Telescopes
Oc obe 3, 2025
/GeV)
ν
(E
10
Log
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
]
-1
s
-1
sec
-2
[GeV cmΦ
2
E
-9
10
-8
10
-7
10
-6
10
-5
10
-4
10
-3
10
-2
10
-1
10
µ
ν Supe -Kamiokande I-IV
µ
ν F ejus
un olding
µ
ν IceCube
o wa d olding
µ
ν IceCube
un olding
µ
ν AMANDA-II
o wa d olding
µ
ν AMANDA-II
µ
ν ANTARES
(w/ osc.)
µ
ν+
µ
ν HKKM11
e
ν Supe -Kamiokande I-IV
e
ν F ejus
e
ν IceCube/DeepCo e 2013
e
ν IceCube 2014
(w/ osc.)
e
ν+
e
ν HKKM11
ANTARES
νe
A mosphe ic neu inos a e c ea ed in he collision o
cosmic ays wi h he a mosphe ic nuclei
π→μνμ
K→μνμ
μ→e¯νe¯νμ
E. Richa d e al. (SK), PRD 94 (2016) 5
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP) 2
A mosphe ic Neu inos
3
νe+νe
νμ+νμ
νμ
νμ
νe
νe
0.1 1 10 100 1000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
E(GeV)
Flux Ra io
The mos ecen a mosphe ic neu ino lux es ima ions a e based on 3D-MC simula ion
ϕνi=ϕp⊗Rp⊗Yp→νi+∑
A
ϕA⊗RA⊗YA→νi
The a mosphe ic lux composi ion
changes wi h he ene gy
Honda, Sajjad A ha , Kaji a, Kasaha a,
Mido ikawa PRD 92 (2015)
The main componen s in he lux calcula ions a e:!
•Cosmic ay lux ( )!
•Geomagne ic effec s (R)!
•Had onic in e ac ions (Y)
ϕp
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
A mosphe ic Neu inos
See also: Yañez and Fedyni ch, Phys.Re .D 107 (2023)
Ma e effec s play a c ucial ole in he e olu ion o a mosphe ic neu inos
idν
dE =1
2Eν
(U†diag(0,Δm2
21,Δm2
31)U±Vma )ν
Vma = 2 2GFNeEνdiag(1,0,0)
4
0 2000 4000 6000
[km]
5
10
Ω[g/cm3]
PREM
Wol ens ein, PRD 17 (1978)!
Mikheye and Smi no , Yad.Fix 42 (1985)
Dziewonski and Ande son, Phys.
Ea h Plane In e io s 25 (1981)
Neu ino E olu ion in Ma e
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
π− /2π− 0 /2π π
CP
δ
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
χ∆
V expanded FV−SK I
Da a i In e ed
MC expec a ion No mal
0 0.02 0.04 0.06
13
θ
2
sin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
χ∆
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
)
2
eV
-3
(10
32,31
2
m∆
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
χ∆
68%
90%
95%
99%
0.4 0.5 0.6
23
θ
2
sin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
χ∆
Se e al expe imen s ha e measu ed he a mosphe ic neu ino lux, wi h SK s a ing om he sub-GeV scale.
Supe -Kamiokande (SK)
•22.5 k on wa e Che enko !
•Small sample a mul i-GeV due o he olume!
•The e en sample is di ided in FC, PC and Up-
μ
5
Abe e al. (Supe -Kamiokande), PRD 97 (2018)
Wes e e al. (Supe -Kamiokande), a Xi : 2311.05105
Supe -Kamiokande
See Lucas N. Machado’s Talk

I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
The neu ino elescopes measu e he a mosphe ic neu ino lux om he mul i-GeV scale
• ice Che enko !
•The sample is di ided in o acks and cascades!
•The upg ade will add se en addi ional s ings lowe ing he
ene gy h eshold o ~1GeV!
∼1km3
6
0
0.5
1
·105
a e [1/s]
⌫µ+¯⌫µ, CC backg ound
o al MC No Osc.
da a
101102103
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
L/E [km/GeV]
a e/ o al MC
0
0.5
1
·105
a e [1/s]
⌫µ+¯⌫µ, CC backg ound
o al MC No Osc.
da a
101102103
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
L/E [km/GeV]
a e/ o al MC
Abbasi e al. (IceCube), PRD 108 (2023)
Abbasi e al. (IceCube), a Xi : 2405.02163
Wilks'
IceCube
See Summe Blo Talk
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP) 7
The o al expec ed olume is 7 M , wi h e en s classi ied
in o high-pu i y acks, low-pu i y acks, and showe s
ORCA measu es he mul i-GeV componen o he a mosphe ic neu ino lux om ~2GeV
Ca e e o e al. (KM3NeT), PoS ICRC2023
Aiello (KM3NeT), EPJC 82, 26 (2022)
ORCA
A. Lazo (KM3NeT), ICHEP 2024
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
A mosphe ic Mass-Squa ed Spli ing
Combining diffe en da ase s esul s in signi ican syne gy, as
he global egions a e smalle han he indi idual ones.
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
∆m2
32 [10-3 eV2] ∆m2
31
NO A
T2K
MINOS
IC19
Supe K
IC24
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
sin2θ23
-3
-2.8
-2.6
-2.4
-2.2
Reno
DayaBay
Dbl-Chooz
0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03
sin2θ13
[2σ]
NuFIT 6.0 (2024)
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
∆m2
32 [10-3 eV2] ∆m2
31
NO A
T2K
MINOS
IC19
Supe K
IC24
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
sin2θ23
-3
-2.8
-2.6
-2.4
-2.2
Reno
DayaBay
Dbl-Chooz
0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03
sin2θ13
[2σ]
NuFIT 6.0 (2024)
•Colo ed egions: LBL+IC19!
•Black-dashed: LBL+IC24+SK!
•Good ag eemen wi h eac o expe imen s!
•P e e ence o he highe oc an ( )
sin2θ23 = 0.561
8
I Es eban, MC Gonzalez-Ga cia, M Mal oni,
IMS,JP Pinhei o, T Schwe z, JHEP 12 (2025)
See C. Gonzalez-Ga cia, A. Ma one
0
5
10
15
∆χ2
Reac o s
LBL-comb
IceCube
Global
-3 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2
∆m2
32 [10-3 eV2]
0
5
10
15
∆χ2
2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3
∆m2
31 [10-3 eV2]
Reac o s
R + LBL-comb
R + IceCube
R + Global
NuFIT 6.0 (2024)
solid = IC19, dashed = IC24
0
5
10
15
∆χ2
Reac o s
LBL-comb
IceCube
Global
-3 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2
∆m2
32 [10-3 eV2]
0
5
10
15
∆χ2
2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3
∆m2
31 [10-3 eV2]
Reac o s
R + LBL-comb
R + IceCube
R + Global
NuFIT 6.0 (2024)
solid = IC19, dashed = IC24
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
Mass O de ing
•Combining IC24+Reac o s, we ge a
p e e ence o NO o !
•Supe -Kamiokande alone shows a
p e e ence o NO o !
•Combining IC+SK+global i esul s
in a p e e ence o NO o
Δχ2∼4.5
Δχ2∼4.5
Δχ2∼6.1
9
I Es eban, MC Gonzalez-Ga cia, M Mal oni,
IMS,JP Pinhei o, T Schwe z, JHEP 12 (2025)
See C. Gonzalez-Ga cia, A. Ma one
Sys ema ic unce ain ies
The unce ain ies on he a mosphe ic neu ino lux and he c oss-sec ion a e common o all de ec o s.
Sys ema ic
Unce ./P io
CCQE
10%
CCQE
10%
CCQE
10%
CC1
10%
CC1
40%
CC1
10%
CC1
10%
Coh.
100%
Axial Mass
10%
NC had on
5%
NC o e CC
10%
25%
Neu on p od.
15%
DIS
10%
ν/ν
e/μ
π
π π0/π±
π νe/νe
π νμ/νμ
π
ντ
C oss-sec ion sys ema ics
ν/ν
Diffe en ypes o in e ac ions affec he a mosphe ic neu ino
measu emen s due o he la ge ene gy ange co e ed
16
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)

Combined analysis: and
θ23
Δm2
31
Making a combined analysis o SK, HK, IceCube-upg ade
and ORCA we ha e es ima ed he sensi i i y o , and he
mass o de ing
δcp
θ23
17
~10GeV neu ino econs uc ion imp o es and p ecision
sin2θ23
Δm2
31
A güelles, Fe nandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
Combined analysis: mass o de ing
The sensi i i y o he o de ing is domina ed by he cascades
c ossing he co e in IC-upg ade and ORCA a ound he GeV.!
18
Ve y localized effec , equi es good ene gy and angula esolu ion.
A güelles, Fe nandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
Combined analysis:
δcp
The sensi i i y o is domina ed by Supe -Kamiokande
δcp
•The samples ha domina e he sensi i i y a e he e-like and
-like wi h no neu on agged!
μ
19
A güelles, Fe nandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
Sys ema ic impac
De ec o C oss-sec ionFlux
A de ailed analysis o all he sys ema ics is pe o med. The unce ain ies ela ed o he lux ha e a la ge
impac on
δCP
20
A güelles, Fe nandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
21
Boos ing he Sen i i y wi h Inelas ici y
The mass o de ing and he CP-phase p edic a diffe en oscilla ions be ween neu inos and an ineu inos.
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
y
2
4
6
8
dæ/dy [10°38cm2]
¯∫
∫
•- CC in e ac ion he ene gy is de ided be ween acks and
cascades.!
•Neu inos and an ineu inos di ide hei ene gy diffe en ly
be ween he lep onic and he had onic pa diffe en ly
νμ
y=Ecasc
Eν
Ribo dy and Smi no , PRD, 87 (2013)
Gine Ola a ie a, Jin, A güelles,
Fe nández, IMS, PRD 110 (2024)
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
dσCC
(−)
ν
dydx =G2
Fxs
2π((−)
Q(x) + ¯
Q(x)×(1 −y)2)
Q(x): Pa on Dis ibu ion unc ions
μ
Casca

22
The econs uc ed inelas ici y is based on he econs uc ed ene gies o he ack and he cascade.
Recons uc ed inelas ici y
y =Ecasc
Ecasc
+E ack
Gine Ola a ie a, Jin, A güelles,
Fe nández, IMS, PRD 110 (2024)
K onmuelle e al. (IceCube), ICRC2019
Pe e son e al. (IceCube), PoS ICRC2023
NO
IO
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
Boos ing he Sen i i y wi h Inelas ici y
23
•The inelas ici y allows o a 50% inc ease in sensi i i y o he
mass o de ing, eaching in 5 yea s. !
•In he case o , he sensi i i y inc eases by 15%
8.4σ
δCP
Gine Ola a ie a, Jin, A güelles,
Fe nández, IMS, PRD 110 (2024)
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
Boos ing he Sen i i y wi h Inelas ici y
Nex gene a ion o eac o expe imen s will pe o m a e y p ecise measu emen o
Δm2
ee
Pee = 1 −cos4θ13 sin22θ12 sin2Δ21 −1
2sin22θ13(1 −1−sin22θ12 sin2Δ21 sin2(2|Δee |±ϕ))
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP) 24
Reac o s
Δm2
ee =Δm2
31 −sin2θ12Δm2
21
A. Abusleme e al. (JUNO) Chin.Phys.C 46 (2022)
ϕ= a c an(cos 2θ12 an Δ21)
S. Pa ke, PRD 93 (2016)
See Monica Sis i Talk
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP) 25
Reac o s and Neu ino Telescopes
Pμμ ≃1−sin22θμμ sin2Δm2
μμL
4E+o(2EVCC sin2θ13
Δm2
31
)
Δm2
μμ =Δm2
31 −cos2θ12Δm2
21
sin2θμμ = cos2θ13 sin2θ23
Neu ino elescopes measu e looking o muon disappea ance
Δm2
31
Bonus: sensi i i y o e
θ13
2σ
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
The measu emen o he a mosphe ic esonance also gi es us a sensi i i y o
sin2θ13
32
A güelles, Fe nandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)
T acks a e e y sensi i e
o la ge alues o
θ13
The alue o de e mine
he ene gy whe e he MSW
esonance happen
θ13

33
Boo ing he Sen i i y wi h Inelas ici y
To es he esul s, we explo ed diffe en unce ain ies in he inelas ici y
The e is a la ge unce ain y in he inelas ici y when
mos o he ene gy goes o he cascade.
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
34
Supe -Kamiokande
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
A güelles, Fe nandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)
We ha e de eloped a simula ion o SK conside ing
all he phases and Hype -Kamiokande
35
I an Ma inez-Sole (IPPP)
Compa ison be ween Neu ino Telescopes
Effec i e olume
IceCube Upg ade
ORCA
T acks
T acks
Cascades
Cascades
A güelles, Fe nandez, IMS and Jin, PRX 13 (2023)