From classrooms to communities: modeling the impact of school-based interventions for future pandemic response

F omclass ooms ocommuni ies:modeling
heimpac o school-basedin e en ions
o  u u epandemic esponse
Indi idual-based mul i-scale model
TeslyaA1,FangZ2,A ame BalkanB2,DeKo neC1,DeWin e M3,Ve meulen
LC3,TenBoschQ2,B uijning-Ve hagenP1,Rozhno aG1*
1Uni e si y Medical Cen e U ech , U ech Uni e si y, U ech , The Ne he lands 2 Wageningen Uni e si y & Resea ch, Wageningen, The Ne he lands
3 Na ional Ins i u e o Public Heal h and he En i onmen (RIVM), Bil ho en, The Ne he lands
Nex s eps
Backg ound and objec i es
•Du ing espi a o y pandemics, schools a e c i ical: while hei
high-con ac en i onmen s can ampli y communi y
ansmission, hey emain essen ial o child en’s lea ning and
wellbeing.
•As pa o pandemic p epa edness o eme ging espi a o y
pa hogens, he RE-PASS p ojec de elops a no el mul i-scale
modeling amewo k o in o m he school-based in e en ions by
e alua ing ade-o s be ween in ec ion con ol and lea ning loss
by cap u ing he impac o epidemic sp ead and mi iga ion
s a egies.
*Co esponding au ho email G.Rozhno a@umcu ech .nl and a ilia ion: Uni e si y
Medical Cen e U ech , U ech Uni e si y, U ech , The Ne he lands
This wo k is unded by ZonMw g an N 10710062310007
Expec ed esul s
•Calib a ion o he model using empi ical SARS-CoV-2 da a a he
ini ial s ages o he ou b eak in he Ne he lands
•Fo maliza ion o lea ning loss quan i ica ion due o
absen eeism, accoun ing o ele an ac o s such as socio-
economic s a us
•Mul i-c i e ia analyses o ade-o be ween epidemic con ol
and lea ning loses
Me hods
Ven ila ion
Face masks
Physical dis ancing
Physical dis ancing
S agge ed a endance
S agge ed a endance
Full school closu e
Sc eening
Qua an ine o isola ion o
symp oma ic s uden s
•Adap able model which can simula e ou b eaks ac oss
di e en espi a o y pa hogens
•High- esolu ion while compu a ionally e icien due o use o
unc ional o ms o ansmission dynamics
•Analysis o he con ibu ion o schools, households and o he
communi y se ing o he epidemic dynamics
•Assessmen o he impac o school in e en ions on epidemic
bu den and lea ning ou comes while accoun ing o wi hin-
and be ween-class oom con ac ne wo k, as well as he
connec ions be ween schools and communi y spaces
School-communi y
ne wo k
School
Class oom
A - Households
C - Communi y Spaces
B - Schools
Ou pu Dis ibu ion o inhaled pa hogen dose
s a i ied by age, oom dimensions, numbe o
s uden s. numbe o eache s, lea ning block
pa ame e s
Ou pu Dis ibu ion o inhaled pa hogen
dose s a i ied by age, school ype, school
s eam, school size
•The modeling amewo k simula es ansmission ac oss h ee
in e connec ed scales: (1) ine- esolu ion wi hin-class oom
dynamics, cap u ing daily mo emen and in e ac ion pa e ns o
s uden s and eache s; (2) wi hin-school ansmission,
media ed by sha ed s a and c oss-g oup connec ions; and (3)
a school-communi y ne wo k linking households, schools,
and he communi y.
•Ou pu s: Epidemiological s a e o all indi idual agen s is
acked on a daily basis, including a ime-dependen i us
shedding p o ile. Fo s uden s lea ning losses a e being acked.