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ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue X Oc obe 2025
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Biden e sus T ump h ough Science
Cesa An oine Kamel, Richa d Hanna Beainy
Finance Depa men , Business School Holy Spi i Uni e si y o Kaslik, Jounieh, Lebanon
DOI: h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.910000207
Recei ed: 09 Oc obe 2025; Accep ed: 15 Oc obe 2025; Published: 01 No embe 2025
ABSTRACT
This s udy aims o p o ide an in o ma i e and unbiased scien i ical compa ison o he Biden and T ump
p esidencies o he Ame ican public, global media, and schola s. Using mode n echnology and u ilizing o icial
da a sou ces om he U.S. Go e nmen , Fede al Rese e, Wo ld Bank, and Uni ed Na ions, he s udy an
hypo hesis es ing and Welsh - es s on a ious socie al indica o s like wa casual ies and economic me ics like
deb and unemploymen . Empi ical e idence sugges ed ha deb g ow h and dea h olls a e be e (lowe ) du ing
a ump e m, howe e in e ms o unemploymen he di e ence is no s a is ically signi ican , e en hough
nume ically unemploymen is sligh ly lowe du ing a ump e m. Finally, a Million scena io analysis ook place
acco ding o which inancial p ospe i y in he Uni ed s a es is p obable on he sho e m.
Keywo ds: Unemploymen Ra e, Go e nmen Deb , Wa s, Uni ed S a es o Ame ica, T ump, Biden
INTRODUCTION
Backg ound and S a emen o he P oblem
The ole o he P esiden o he Uni ed S a es has an immense in luence globally, impac ing no only he 340
million U.S esiden s, bu also ex ends i s in luence o he li es o a ound eigh billion people wo ldwide (Bu ns,
2019).
Hence, he decision be ween a Republican and a Democ a ic p esiden , e en hough i is a pe sonal choice o
U.S ci izens, ye has signi ican consequences o non-Ame icans a ound he wo ld. Su p isingly, e en wi hin
Ame ican na ionalis ci cles, opinions equen ly ely on subjec i e sen imen s a he han objec i e da a.
Fu he mo e, some indi iduals shape hei opinion and o m hei iews based on biased media ou le s ha
openly suppo ei he he Democ a ic o Republican pa y.
Pu pose, Resea ch Ques ions and Signi icance o he S udy
Indeed, he in luence o Pa hos is al eady p ominen in he media and cha isma ic speeches o candida es and
p esiden s which e ec i ely appeal o emo ions. Howe e , he p ima y objec i e o his s udy is o ocus on
E hos, le e aging he c edibili y and us associa ed wi h he es eemed jou nal you a e pe using. I also elies
on logos, placing ai h in he capaci y o schola s o d aw conclusions based on his o ical ac s and igo ous
analysis. By emphasizing E hos and logos, he s udy aims o p o ide a solid, a ional, and us wo hy ounda ion
o i s indings.
The ini ial h ee esea ch ques ions ela ed o inance p esen inhe en challenges, pa icula ly due o he
complexi y o es ablishing a ce e is pa ibus en i onmen in ecen yea s, g ea ly in luenced by he COVID-19
pandemic, which dis up ed he inancial sys em om 2019 un il 2022 (Gee & Asmundson, 2023).
To main ain da a objec i i y, an e ec i e app oach has been adop ed – examining he i s h ee yea s o each
p esiden 's i s e m. This con ol a iable enhances he c edibili y o he esul s by ensu ing ha hey a e oo ed
in he pe o mance o he indi iduals a he han being excessi ely in luenced by global e en s. Acco dingly,
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)
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da a a e handled wi h ca e and delicacy, especially gi en ha he Uni ed S a es, as he global leade in esea ch
and de elopmen has in luence beyond i s bo de s mo e han any coun y in he wo ld (Beainy and Kamel, 2023).
The i s esea ch ques ion examines indi idual wel a e, ocusing on which o he wo p esiden s achie ed
g ea e p og ess in educing unemploymen , while no di ec ly add essing o he a - eaching e ec s, such as
dec eased c ime a es and an o e all enhancemen o sa e y and quali y o li e wi hin Ame ican Socie y
(Pu nomo, Sup iyo e al. 2023).
The second esea ch ques ion adop s a long- e m pe spec i e (Rienks, 2023), emphasizing ha he deb incu ed
oday will ul ima ely be shoulde ed by u u e gene a ions (Galb ai h, 2023). In ac , he p esen deb is a bu den
ha will be paid by ou child en omo ow.
T ansi ioning om he mic o-le el o analysis ha conside s 340 million indi iduals, o he mac o-le el ha
encompasses he li es o 8 billion people globally, he inal esea ch ques ion in es iga es wa casual ies
wo ldwide du ing each o he p esiden s' enu e. This b oad pe spec i e aims o assess he global impac o hese
manda es on he backd op o a la ge popula ion.
In addi ion o i s dis ibu ion o global media ou le s, he s udy's impo ance lies in i s abili y o o e aluable
da a om an impa ial, hi d-pa y pe spec i e. Much like an indi idual esiding on Ea h may s uggle o
pe cei e i s oundness compa ed o an as onau iewing i om a a , hose deeply en enched wi hin a con lic
o di ision may ha e di icul y disce ning he eali y. Howe e , an impa ial hi d pa y can p o ide a clea e ,
unbiased pe spec i e, especially when using accu a e da a sou ced om us ed ins i u ions headqua e ed wi hin
Washing on, D.C.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Li e a u e and Con ex
This sec ion e iews he his o ical e olu ion o he Ame ican unemploymen a e, he Ame ican deb , and he
wa casual ies in he co e con lic s o he cen u y.
Unemploymen a es om Reagan (1981-1989) o T ump (2017 – 2021)
Unemploymen a es a e no only indica o s o he gene al s a e o he economy, bu also a e lec ion on
p esidency success (S igli z, Sen e al. 2009). They a e o en associa ed wi h economic heal h and p esiden ial
job app o al (Wood 2007).
G aph 1: Unemploymen A e age Ra es Ac oss P esidencies
Sou ce: Luns o d (2021)
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Unde P esiden Reagan (1981 – 1989), he unemploymen a e b oke 10 pe cen o he i s ime since Wo ld
Wa II, hi ing 10.8 pe cen due o he ensuing spike in oil p ices. I had e u ned o an a e age a ound 7
pe cen 1989 by he ime P esiden Reagan concluded his enu e (Healey and S obel 1991).
Bush's adminis a ion (1989 – 1993) expe ienced a s able 18 mon hs o unemploymen , ho e ing a ound 5
pe cen . Howe e , a es s a ed o ise in July 1990, which peaked in June 1992 a an a e age o 6.8% (Pollin
2005).
Clin on (1993 – 2001) ook o ice amid a pe iod o obus economic g ow h, as seen by he con inuous d op in
he unemploymen a e du ing his p esidency. I inished up a an a e age abou 5 pe cen , ha ing begun a an
a e age a ound 7 pe cen (S icke 2003).
Unde P esiden Bush (2001- 2009), he e o is a acks on Sep embe 11, 2001, ins iga ed economic
unce ain y, which con ibu ed o an inc ease in he unemploymen a e. June 2003 saw a d op, which con inued
h ough he summe and all o 2007 un il a d ama ic inc ease happened in 2008, eaching a peak o 7.8 pe cen .
When Bush concluded his enu e, he a e age was abou 6 pe cen (Hunge o d 2012).
The unemploymen a e was s ill apidly ising when Obama (2009 – 2017) ook o ice. I peaked in Oc obe
2009 a 10%, linge ed jus below ha ma k o he nex yea , and hen s a ed a g adual slide a he end o 2010,
ha con inued un il ea ly 2016 and b oke pas he 7% ba ie a ha ime (Wibisono 2023).
T ump's adminis a ion (2017 – 2021) i s yea s in o ice expe ienced consis en , low unemploymen . In Ma ch
2020, he COVID-19 epidemic caused a sha p inc ease in unemploymen o each 14.8% be o e i declines o
each an a e age o 5 pe cen (James 2021). Excluding Co id pe iod, unemploymen in P esiden ump’s i s
enu e was one o he lowes in mode n Ame ican his o y, which has signi ican posi i e impac on he s abili y
o he in e na ional inancial sys em (Kamel, Beainy, & B eish, 2025).
E olu ion o US deb s unde p esiden ial e m om 1981 ill 2021
Be o e Wo ld Wa II, Ame ican na ional deb was a ound 33 Billion due o he G ea Dep ession in 1920 and
he Roose el ’s p og ams o unemploymen and social secu i y pensions (Kelly 2008, Johnson and Kwak 2012).
Du ing Wo ld Wa II (1939–1945), he Uni ed S a es spen much on i s own mili a y and len money o he
Uni ed Kingdom and o he na ions o help mi iga ing he cos o wa . The Uni ed S a es owed $285 Billion a
he end o ha wa , esul ing in he expansion o Ame ican economy. Howe e , he pos -wa pa e n o declining
na ional deb pe sis ed.
The Vie nam Wa ini ia i es o suppo po e y, inance educa ion and enhance anspo a ion, all con ibu ed o
a subsequen ise in deb wi hin a ew decades (Kelly 2008).
The go e nmen deb was s ill g owing a he beginning o he 1980s due o signi ican ax cu s and a ise in
de ense spending. The Na ional deb was $2.7 T illion a he end o Ronald Reagan adminis a ion manda e
(Aizenman and Ma ion 2011).
P esiden Bill Clin on o e saw ax inc eases, cu de ense expendi u e, and he Uni ed S a es expe ienced an
economic boom ha slowed down he expansion o he Na ional deb ha has eached $5.6 T illion by 2000
(Wa nock 2010).
Following he Sep embe 11, 2001 e o is a acks, deb s expanded in he new cen u y. The economy s agna ed
as mo e money was spen on I aq Wa and Homeland secu i y. Mo eo e , he Go e nmen bo owed a signi ican
sum o money om Social Secu i y and Medica e (Kelly 2008).
The Go e nmen de ici eached o e $8.1 T illion by 2005. Be ween Decembe 2007 and June 2009, he Uni ed
S a es wen h ough a ecession ma ked by high unemploymen a es, he de la ion o he housing bubble, and
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signi ican Go e nmen bailou s. In ew yea s, he unemploymen a e i ually doubled om 5.8 pe cen o 9.3
pe cen , while house alues ell down by a ound 20% (Hol on 2023).
To boos he economy and achie e a inancial eco e y, P esiden Geo ge W. Bush signed he T oubled Asse
Relie P og am in o law in 2008. I was a ound a $700 Billion p og am. Well ahead, he $831 Billion Ame ican
Reco e y and Rein es men Ac o 2009 was passed by P esiden Ba ack Obama.
The Na ional deb has inc eased o $12.3 T illion by he end o 2009 (Maniam 2014).
The Uni ed S a es is by a he mos indeb ed coun y in he wo ld’s his o y (Hall, Payne e al. 2021). Al hough
deb has been a p oblem since Ame ica's ounding, i s apid g ow h will endu e o encou age P esiden s o c ea e
be e p og ams o spending con ol (Siddiqui 2020).
E olu ion o Wa s Casual ies in he mos impo an con lic s o he cen u y
G aph 2: E olu ion o he numbe o casual ies in Wa s agains Uk aine, Yemen, Sy ia, A ghanis an, and I aq
om 1989 ill 2022
Sou ce: Wa and Peace - Ou Wo ld in Da a
Wha is his o ically p o en is ha wa s a e he main and di ec cause o he inc ease in casual ies wo ldwide
(Taylo 2023). The g aph abo e shows he e olu ion o he numbe o ic ims esul ing om he mos subs an ial
wa s o ecen decades. The ole played by he Uni ed S a es in hese wa s is de ailed below.
Since Wo ld Wa II, he e ha e been 15 P esiden s o he Uni ed S a es o Ame ica, all o whom ha e p esided
Ame ica h ough wa ime si ua ions, con on ing a ying s ages o con lic s (Geys 2010). Mos o hem, such
P esiden T ump who ook o ice in Janua y 2017, o P esiden Biden who ook o ice in Janua y 2021, inhe i ed
wa s ha hei p edecesso s s a ed o le behind (Hanhalo and Seme ak, 2023). Bo h ha e inhe i ed decisions
o con inue he Wa s agains al-Qaeda and o he Islamic jihadis g oups in I aq, Sy ia, Pakis an, Yemen, Libya,
Somalia, No h A ica and elsewhe e (Hanhalo and Seme ak, 2023).
The Uni ed S a es, unde P esiden s Obama and T ump, suppo ed he Saudi-led coali ion agains he I an-backed
Hou his, al hough P esiden Biden e e sed his suppo in 2021 (S ewa 2023). Howe e , since Feb ua y 2022,
Hou hi o ces and allied I aqi Shii e mili ia ha e launched missiles and d one s ikes agains a ge s in he Uni ed
A ab Emi a es (UAE), who is membe o he an i-Hou hi coali ion. These s ikes equi ed U.S o ces o i e back
in o de o de end hei mili a y bases ha a e s a ioned in he UAE. This was he i s ime he U.S has used
Pa io missiles since he 1991 Gul Wa (Moqbel, 2023).
Wi h Russia's in asion o Uk aine in 2022, he Uni ed S a es inc eased i s suppo o Uk aine, p o iding
weapons, aining, money, economic and poli ical suppo (Kagan, 2023). In ac , unde Biden's p esidency a
new cold wa has been de eloped wi h Russia, I an, No h Ko ea, and China (Sulli an, 2023).
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Hypo hesis De elopmen
To add ess he esea ch inqui ies h ough a quan i a i e app oach, h ee hypo heses we e o mula ed, all
indica ing ha he accu acy o ou asse ions is un ounded and inco ec and ha he dispa i y in impac be ween
he wo p esiden s is negligible.
Hypo hesis One: The unemploymen a e in he Uni ed S a es emains consis en du ing bo h P esiden T ump's
and P esiden Biden's manda es.
The objec i e o he i s hypo hesis is o in es iga e whe he ei he o he p esiden s exe s a signi ican in luence
on he li es o Ame ican indi iduals by examining he consis ency o he unemploymen a e in he Uni ed S a es
du ing bo h P esiden T ump's and P esiden Biden's manda es.
Table 1: Focus o Hypo hesis one
Hypo hesis Numbe
S udies he impac on:
One
Ame ican Indi idual
Hypo hesis Two: The e is no signi ican di e ence in he Uni ed S a es deb be ween Donald T ump's
p esidency and Joseph Biden's.
The goal o he second hypo hesis is o assess whe he he Uni ed S a es, as a cohesi e en i y, unde goes
subs an ial changes unde ei he o he wo p esiden s, speci ically analyzing he Uni ed S a es deb du ing
Donald T ump's and Joseph Biden's p esidencies.
Table 2: Focus o Hypo hesis wo
Hypo hesis Numbe
S udies he impac on:
Two
The Uni ed S a es as a coun y
Hypo hesis Th ee: The loss o human li es due o wa shows simila i ies be ween T ump's and Biden's
adminis a ions.
The aim o he hi d hypo hesis is o sc u inize po en ial signi ican di e ences on a global scale, pa icula ly in
e ms o he loss o Human li es due o wa , by compa ing he simila i ies in he loss o Human li es due o wa
be ween T ump's and Biden's adminis a ions.
Table 3: Focus o Hypo hesis h ee
Hypo hesis Numbe
S udies he impac on:
Th ee
The Wo ld
Table 4: Hypo hesis de elopmen summa y
Hypo hesis
Focus
Le el o Analysis
One
Unemploymen
Indi idual
Two
Na ional Deb
Na ional
Th ee
Wa Casual ies
Global
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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Da a Collec ion and Sampling Me hod
All da a we e sou ced om a ious en i ies headqua e ed wi hin he Uni ed S a es capi al (da a sou ces a e
sha ed in de ail in he e e ences).
Ini ially, da a ela ed o unemploymen a es we e ga he ed om he U.S. Bu eau o Labo S a is ics, an o icial
websi e o he U.S. go e nmen and double-checked h ough FRED, he Fede al Rese e Bank o S . Louis.
Addi ionally, da a ela ed o Deb we e collec ed on a qua e ly basis om he ede al ese e bank o Sain Luis,
in addi ion o he U.S easu y depa men .
Finally, da a ela ed o he oll o human casual ies was collec ed om he Wo ld Bank’s o icial open da a
sou ces.
I is wo h no ing ha he da a used in his s udy was solely sou ced om go e nmen al and in e na ional en i ies,
along wi h hei au ho ized websi es, which ensu e he u mos accu acy in in he inpu , which in u n p o ides
eliabili y o he esul s.
Empi ical amewo k and Da a T ea men
We employ a anspa en , da a‐d i en design ha compa es he i s h ee yea s o each p esiden ’s i s e m
(T ump: 2017-01-20→2020-01-19; Biden: 2021-01-20→2024-01-19) o limi con ounding and ancho esul s
in compa able windows. O icial se ies a e used h oughou : he U.S. unemploymen a e (BLS, mon hly,
seasonally adjus ed), g oss ede al deb (FRED/T easu y, qua e ly, cu en dolla s), and ba le- ela ed dea hs
wo ldwide (Wo ld Bank, annual). Da a a e cleaned and aligned o a common equency. To es he null ha he
wo p esidencies do no di e , we apply Welch’s wo-sample - es o mon hly unemploymen means and
qua e ly deb dynamics—bo h he change in le els (Δ) and qua e -o e -qua e g ow h, u he mo e he s udy
an a - es on all 3 hypo heses o de ec , i p esen , a signi icance di e ence be ween he wo pe iods,
u he mo e, using mode n echnology he s udy uns a 1,000,000 scena io analysis o analyze he possibili y
ha P esiden T ump will be able o educe he go e nmen de ici , hus posi i ely educing deb g ow h.
As a i s s ep, and wi h a pu pose o de e mine he op imum me hod o es he hypo hesis we conduc ed a wo-
sample F- es o a iance
Table 4: 2 Samples F Tes o Va iance
Deb T (millions $)
Deb B (millions $)
Mean
211,794,59.4
30,453,120.8
Va iance
946,027
2,696,716
Obse a ions
11.0
11.0
D
10.0
10.0
F
0.4
P(F<= ) one- ail
0.1
F C i ical one- ail
0.3
UN Ra e T (%)
UN Ra e B (%)
Mean
4.0
4.3
Va iance
0.1
1.0
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Obse a ions
11.0
11.0
d
10.0
10.0
F
0.1
P(F<= ) one- ail
0.0
F C i ical one- ail
0.3
Human Casual ies (Pe Qua e ) T
Humans Casual ies (Pe Qua e ) B
Mean
84,352.1
325,863.5
Va iance
292
25,398
Obse a ions
11.0
11.0
d
10.0
10.0
F
0.0
P(F<= ) one- ail
0.0
F C i ical one- ail
0.3
Acco ding o he abo e able, he bes model o use o eliable esul s is T- es o 2 samples assuming non-
Equal Va iance, wi h T as an anno a ion e e ing o P esiden T ump and B as an anno a ion e e ing o
P esiden Biden.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Resul s
Table 5: T- es Resul s
No ion
UN Ra e
T
UN Ra e
B
Deb
T
Deb
B
Humans Los
T
Humans Los
B
Mean
4.01
4.25
2.12
3.05
84.35
325.86
Obse a ions
11.00
11.00
11.00
11.00
11.00
11.00
Hypo hesized Mean
Di e ence
0.00
0.00
0.00
d
12.00
16.00
10.00
S a
-0.76
-16.12
-5.00
P(T<= ) one- ail
0.23
0.00
0.00
C i ical one- ail
1.78
1.75
1.81
P(T<= ) wo- ail
0.46
0.00
0.00
C i ical wo- ail
2.18
2.12
2.23
Re e ing o he Abo e, as he T S a 0.76 < C i ical 1.78 we ail o ejec he null hypo hesis one, acco ding o
which he unemploymen a e in he Uni ed S a es emains consis en du ing bo h P esiden T ump's and
P esiden Biden's e ms.
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Figu e 1: Unemploymen Ra e (%)
Sou ce: Biden e sus ump in numbe s s udy
Howe e , in Bo h he Deb Case and he Wa Human casual ies, T s a o he o me is 16.12 > C i ical 1.75
and o he la e 5 > C i ical 1.81, he e o e we success ully ejec bo h null hypo hesis wo acco ding o which
he e is no signi ican di e ence in he Uni ed S a es deb be ween Donald T ump's p esidency and Joseph
Biden's and h ee, ha s a es ha he loss o human li es due o wa shows simila i ies be ween T ump's and
Biden's adminis a ions.
Figu e 2: G oss Deb (Billions o $)
Sou ce: Biden e sus ump in numbe s s udy
Acco ding o he abo e, by using o icial da a and unning a echnical analysis, we can conclude ha P esiden
T ump had a be e pe o mance in e ms o deb . Fu he mo e, due o unknown easons which a e no pa o
his s udy, wa s a e less likely o e up wi hin his p esidency, hus quan i a i ely, he obse ed dea h olls decline
signi ican ly unde a enu e o P esiden T ump.
Table 6: Welch- esul s
Indica o
T ump
Biden
Tes
P alue
Unemploymen (mean, %)
3.9750
4.2111
Welch , means
0.169
Deb ($ bn, 3 y s)
3354960
5868924
Welch Qua e o e Qua e
0.126
Sou ce: Sou ce: Biden e sus ump in numbe s s udy
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Howe e using Welch’s es s, we do no ind s a is ically signi ican di e ences in a e age unemploymen o
in he qua e ly deb dynamics be ween he wo p esidencies—e en hough he absolu e 3-yea deb inc ease is
nume ically la ge in he Biden window, and unemploymen a es a e pe cen age wise be e du ing ump’s
p esidency.
Figu e 3: 1,000,000 ega ding educ ion o De ici
Sou ce: Mon e Ca lo Simula ion s udy o IJSRMT (In e na ional Jou nal o Scien i ic Resea ch and Mode n
Technology) .
As pe he esul s o he abo e Mon eca lo analysis, in o e 50% o he 1,000,000 scena ios analyzed in he
s udy, P esiden T ump in his second e m can educe Go e nmen De ici o GDP, which u he suppo s he
a gumen acco ding o which he impac o P esiden T ump is signi ican ly posi i e in e ms o deb educ ion.
CONCLUSION
Con ibu ions
In oday's e a, p io i izing nume ical and empi ical e idence allows us o d aw conclusions based on ma hema ics
and s a is ical es s a he han being in luenced by poli icians' discou se, especially when signi ican
implica ions a e a s ake. In a wo ld whe e media is used as a ool o shi public opinion, such quan i a i e
scien i ic s udies in he wo ld's bes jou nals p omo e c i ical hinking o indi iduals wo ldwide (Beainy and
Kamel, 2023), p omo ing he la e would enhance p ope decision making and he la e combined wi h
democ acy, acco ding o which he decision is o he people, would ende such a icles as medica ions agains
Communism, disc epancy and unin o med i esponsible decision making which caused many o e s in he pas ,
especially Ame icans, eg e hei decisions.
LIMITATIONS
The Wo ld Bank's da a on wa - ela ed losses we e o iginally epo ed on an annual basis up o 2022, a he han
being segmen ed in o qua e s. Howe e , o qua e ly esul s, he iden ical annual igu e was u ilized and
di ided in o ou equal pa s.
The numbe s in 2024 a e sadly much highe , which is cohe en wi h he s udy’s esul s and suppo i e o i s
a gumen .
In he p e ious Decade, no yea s has been as bloody as 2023-2024, which u he suppo s he need o such
s udies and he accu acy o i s claims.
All o he da a ela ed o Deb and Unemploymen we e ex ac ed on a qua e ly basis, did no a y in 2024 and
a e ai h ul p esen a ions o Deb and Unemploymen in he Uni ed S a es, acco ding o he US T easu y
Depa men and he US Bu eau o Labo s a is ics.
