Co esponding au ho : Issa Kansaye
Copy igh © 2025 Au ho (s) e ain he copy igh o his a icle. This a icle is published unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion Liscense 4.0.
A ica ee ade ag eemen : Is i a panacea o A ican g ow h and de elopmen ?
Issa Kansaye 1, 2, *
1 Depa men o Highe Ins i u e o T aining and Applied Resea ch (ISFRA), Uni e si y Campus, Badalabougou, B.P.E: 2528,
Bamako, Mali
2 Uni e si y o Law and Poli ical Sciences o Bamako, Uni e si y Campus, Badalabougou, B.P.E: 2528, Bamako, Mali
Wo ld Jou nal o Ad anced Resea ch and Re iews, 2025, 27(02), 755-767
Publica ion his o y: Recei ed on 06 May 2025; e ised on 14 June 2025; accep ed on 16 June 2025
A icle DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.30574/wja .2025.27.2.2349
Abs ac
Backg ound: The A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA), es ablished in 2018 and ope a ional since 2021, aims
o deepen economic in eg a ion ac oss A ica, c ea ing a single ma ke o o e 1.4 billion people wi h a combined GDP
exceeding $3.4 illion. I is seen as a ans o ma i e ini ia i e o boos indus ializa ion, in a-A ican ade, and
economic g ow h.
Objec i es: This pape c i ically examines whe he A CFTA can add ess A ica’s pe sis en de elopmen challenges,
including economic agmen a ion, dependency on ex e nal ma ke s, and s uc u al unde de elopmen .
Me hodology: Using a mul idisciplina y amewo k (economic in eg a ion heo y, endogenous g ow h heo y, and
poli ical economy o de elopmen ), he s udy employs quali a i e and empi ical analyses, e iewing li e a u e, policy
documen s, and economic indica o s om egional and in e na ional ins i u ions.
Findings: A CFTA holds immense p omise in expanding ma ke s, educing ade ba ie s, and os e ing alue chain
de elopmen . Howe e , challenges such as in as uc u al de ici s, non- a i ba ie s, limi ed ins i u ional capaci y, and
une en eadiness among membe s a es hinde p og ess. Case s udies e eal ea ly successes bu also eme ging
obs acles.
Implica ions and Conclusion: A CFTA is no a sil e bulle bu a s a egic pla o m ha , wi h poli ical will, policy
cohe ence, and in as uc u e in es men , could ca alyze sus ainable g ow h. Policy ecommenda ions include capaci y
building, ha monizing ade egula ions, and inclusi e de elopmen s a egies o ensu e equi able bene i s ac oss A ica
Keywo ds: A ica F ee ade ag eemen ; Panacea; G ow h; De elopmen
1. In oduc ion
A ica’s pu sui o egional in eg a ion has long been ega ded as a s a egic impe a i e o achie ing sus ainable
economic g ow h and de elopmen . Despi e i s ich endowmen o na u al esou ces, a bu geoning you h ul popula ion,
and expanding u ban ma ke s, A ica emains one o he leas in eg a ed con inen s in e ms o ade and economic
coope a ion. In a-A ican ade accoun s o less han 20% o o al ade, compa ed o 60% in Eu ope and 40% in No h
Ame ica (UNCTAD, 2021). Agains his backd op, he A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA), launched in Janua y
2021, eme ges as a po en ially ans o ma i e ini ia i e aimed a add essing his o ical ade ba ie s, p omo ing
economic di e si ica ion, and unlocking he con inen ’s g ow h po en ial.
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The A CFTA, es ablished unde he auspices o he A ican Union (AU), seeks o c ea e a single ma ke o goods and
se ices ac oss 54 o he 55 A ican Union membe s a es, co e ing a popula ion o o e 1.4 billion people and a
combined GDP o app oxima ely $3.4 illion (Wo ld Bank, 2020). I s key objec i es include elimina ing a i s on 90%
o goods, educing non- a i ba ie s, acili a ing he mo emen o people and capi al, and enhancing coope a ion on
in es men , in ellec ual p ope y, and compe i ion policy. P oponen s a gue ha A CFTA has he po en ial o os e
s uc u al ans o ma ion, indus ializa ion, and po e y educ ion by enabling A ican coun ies o ade mo e wi h
each o he a he han elying p edominan ly on ex e nal pa ne s (UNECA, 2020).
Howe e , despi e he widesp ead op imism su ounding he A CFTA, signi ican ques ions emain ega ding i s iabili y
as a panacea o A ica’s longs anding de elopmen challenges. While ade libe aliza ion can s imula e economic
ac i i y, i is no inhe en ly de elopmen al unless accompanied by complemen a y policies and ins i u ional e o ms.
Many A ican coun ies con inue o g apple wi h weak in as uc u e, limi ed p oduc i e capaci y, policy incohe ence,
and go e nance de ici s— ac o s ha may unde mine he ag eemen ’s e ec i eness (Signé and an de Ven, 2020).
Mo eo e , dispa i ies in economic size, echnological capabili ies, and le els o de elopmen among A ican s a es pose
isks o une en gains and inc eased inequali y unless mechanisms o inclusi e implemen a ion a e pu in place.The
heo e ical jus i ica ion o he A CFTA es s on classical and mode n ade heo ies, including he p inciple o
compa a i e ad an age and he endogenous g ow h model. The classical pe spec i e sugges s ha by specializing in he
p oduc ion o goods in which hey hold a compa a i e ad an age, A ican coun ies can enhance e iciency and mu ually
bene i om ade. Endogenous g ow h heo y u he posi s ha ade openness can lead o knowledge spillo e s,
inno a ion, and inc eased p oduc i i y, especially when combined wi h in es men in human capi al and in as uc u e
(Rome , 1994). F om a poli ical economy lens, egional ade ag eemen s such as A CFTA can s eng hen collec i e
ba gaining powe , educe ex e nal dependence, and enhance geopoli ical le e age o A ican coun ies in he global
economic sys em (Ma li, 1999).
Ne e heless, hese heo e ical bene i s a e con ingen on p ac ical implemen a ion. The s uc u al challenges ha ha e
his o ically impeded A ica’s egional in eg a ion—such as poo anspo ne wo ks, weak cus oms sys ems, and
agmen ed egula o y amewo ks—s ill pe sis . In addi ion, poli ical will among membe s a es a ies, and
p o ec ionis endencies emain p e alen , h ea ening he ull ealiza ion o he ag eemen ’s po en ial. Wi hou
delibe a e e o s o ha monize ade policies, build in as uc u e, and suppo small and medium en e p ises (SMEs),
A CFTA may all sho o i s ambi ious goals (Luke and MacLeod, 2021). The global con ex also adds a laye o
complexi y. The COVID-19 pandemic dis up ed global supply chains and ade lows, exposing he ulne abili y o
A ican economies ha hea ily depend on ex e nal ma ke s. In his con ex , A CFTA o e s a imely oppo uni y o
ecalib a e A ica’s de elopmen ajec o y owa ds sel - eliance and esilience by boos ing in a-con inen al ade and
educing ex e nal shocks. Howe e , i also unde sco es he u gency o in es ing in heal h, logis ics, and digi al
in as uc u e o acili a e ade unde he new no mal (IMF, 2021).
This pape seeks o c i ically examine whe he he A CFTA can se e as a panacea o A ica’s g ow h and de elopmen .
I explo es he ag eemen ’s po en ial bene i s, he ins i u ional and in as uc u al cons ain s acing implemen a ion,
and he socio-economic implica ions o a ious A ican coun ies and egions. By analyzing empi ical da a, heo e ical
pe spec i es, and case s udies, he s udy aims o p o ide a balanced assessmen o he A CFTA’s ole in shaping A ica’s
de elopmen pa h. The cen al esea ch ques ion guiding his inqui y is: Can he A CFTA ealis ically unc ion as a
ca alys o sus ainable and inclusi e g ow h in A ica, o is i an o e ly ambi ious p ojec cons ained by s uc u al and
poli ical eali ies? In answe ing his ques ion, he pape adop s a mul idisciplina y app oach, d awing on economics,
poli ical science, and in e na ional de elopmen li e a u e o o e nuanced insigh s. Ul ima ely, he s udy a gues ha
while he A CFTA is no a cu e-all solu ion, i cons i u es a c i ical s ep owa ds achie ing A ica’s long- e m
de elopmen aspi a ions—p o ided ha i is implemen ed wi h s a egic coo dina ion, obus ins i u ions, and
inclusi e policies.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
The A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA) has become a ocal poin in con empo a y discussions on A ica’s
economic ans o ma ion and de elopmen . Schola s, policy ins i u ions, and in e na ional o ganiza ions ha e
examined i s po en ial o eshape he con inen ’s ade landscape, wi h some iewing i as a c i ical miles one owa ds
achie ing Agenda 2063 and he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs), while o he s cau ion agains o e es ima ing i s
ans o ma i e capaci y wi hou add essing s uc u al impedimen s. This li e a u e e iew syn hesizes he main
pe spec i es, deba es, and empi ical indings on A CFTA's de elopmen al p ospec s, o ganized unde key hema ic
a eas.
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2.1. Regional In eg a ion and Economic G ow h in A ica
The economic a ionale o egional in eg a ion in A ica is oo ed in he con inen ’s his o ical unde pe o mance in
in a- egional ade. Acco ding o UNCTAD (2021), in a-A ican expo s accoun o less han 20% o o al expo s, in
con as o 60% in he Eu opean Union and 40% in No h Ame ica. Schola s a gue ha he agmen a ion o A ican
ma ke s, cha ac e ized by small na ional economies and high ade ba ie s, has hinde ed g ow h and cons ained
economies o scale (Elbadawi e al., 2020). Regional in eg a ion, in his con ex , is seen as a s a egy o expand ma ke s,
s imula e indus ial de elopmen , and a ac in es men .
Se e al s udies con i m ha ade in eg a ion is posi i ely co ela ed wi h economic g ow h, especially in de eloping
egions. Fo ins ance, Venables (2003) emphasized ha egional ade ag eemen s (RTAs) among de eloping coun ies
can gene a e dynamic gains by os e ing compe i i e indus ies and egional alue chains. Simila ly, UNECA (2020)
con ends ha A CFTA could aise in a-A ican ade by o e 50% by 2040, p o ided non- a i ba ie s a e educed
and ade acili a ion measu es a e implemen ed. These p ojec ions sugges ha A CFTA, i e ec i ely ope a ionalized,
could ca alyze g ow h ac oss membe s a es.
2.2. A CFTA and s uc u al ans o ma ion
A cen al a gumen in he li e a u e is ha A CFTA o e s a pa hway o s uc u al economic ans o ma ion—shi ing
om esou ce-dependen economies o di e si ied, alue-added p oduc ion. Signé and an de Ven (2020) a gue ha
by educing ade cos s and a i s, A CFTA can s imula e he de elopmen o egional alue chains, pa icula ly in
manu ac u ing, ag o-p ocessing, and pha maceu icals. This po en ial is c i ical in add essing A ica’s indus ializa ion
de ici , whe e manu ac u ing con ibu es less han 15% o GDP in many coun ies (Rod ik, 2016).
Fu he mo e, he A CFTA amewo k emphasizes ha moniza ion o s anda ds, libe aliza ion o se ices, and in es men
acili a ion—all o which a e conduci e o p oduc i e ans o ma ion. The Wo ld Bank (2020) p ojec s ha by 2035,
he ag eemen could li 30 million people ou o ex eme po e y and boos incomes by $450 billion i implemen ed
ully. The mechanisms include a i elimina ion, imp o ed e iciency a bo de s, and inc eased compe i ion and
inno a ion due o expanded ma ke s.
None heless, c i ics cau ion ha s uc u al ans o ma ion is no au oma ic and equi es s ong complemen a y
policies. As Te Velde (2018) no es, he p esence o a ade ag eemen alone does no gua an ee indus ializa ion unless
suppo ed by indus ial policy, human capi al de elopmen , and in as uc u e. In he A ican con ex , he
implemen a ion o such suppo i e policies is o en cons ained by weak ins i u ions, iscal limi a ions, and go e nance
challenges.
2.3. Ins i u ional and In as uc u e Cons ain s
A ecu ing heme in he li e a u e is he misma ch be ween A CFTA’s ambi ious objec i es and he con inen ’s limi ed
implemen a ion capaci y. In as uc u e bo lenecks—such as poo oad ne wo ks, inadequa e ail connec i i y, and
ine icien po s—con inue o aise he cos o doing business in A ica (A DB, 2021). These limi a ions signi ican ly
a ec he low o goods and se ices, educing he expec ed gains om ade libe aliza ion.
Fu he mo e, many A ican coun ies ace weak cus oms sys ems, limi ed digi al in as uc u e, and inconsis encies in
egula o y amewo ks. Luke and MacLeod (2021) obse e ha e ec i e implemen a ion o A CFTA equi es
subs an ial in es men in ade acili a ion measu es, including digi al pla o ms o cus oms clea ance, ha monized
ules o o igin, and capaci y building o ade- ela ed ins i u ions. Wi hou add essing hese issues, he bene i s o
A CFTA may be con ined o a ew coun ies wi h ela i ely de eloped ade sys ems.
The poli ical economy o in eg a ion also poses challenges. Regional in eg a ion e o s in A ica ha e his o ically been
unde mined by p o ec ionism, so e eign y conce ns, and o e lapping membe ships in mul iple egional blocs
(Ha zenbe g, 2011). Al hough A CFTA aims o consolida e hese e o s unde a single con inen al amewo k,
di e gen na ional in e es s and inconsis en commi men le els could impede p og ess.
2.4. Inequali y, Inclusi i y, and Dis ibu ional E ec s
Ano he s and o li e a u e in e oga es he dis ibu ional implica ions o A CFTA. While mac oeconomic p ojec ions
pain a posi i e pic u e, he gains a e unlikely o be uni o m ac oss coun ies, sec o s, o popula ion g oups. Smalle and
less di e si ied economies may s uggle o compe e wi h mo e indus ialized coun e pa s like Sou h A ica, Nige ia, o
Egyp (Bouë e al., 2020). Simila ly, wi hou sa egua ds, ade libe aliza ion could expose ulne able sec o s o
compe i ion, leading o job losses and social disloca ion.
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Gende and you h dimensions a e pa icula ly salien . Women and you h cons i u e a la ge sha e o in o mal c oss-
bo de ade s in A ica, ye hey ace signi ican ba ie s, including ha assmen , lack o inancing, and limi ed access o
in o ma ion. A CFTA has p o isions o gende and you h inclusion, bu implemen a ion emains ague (Luke and
MacLeod, 2021). Empi ical s udies sugges ha delibe a e measu es—such as a ge ed aining, access o c edi , and
suppo o in o mal ade s—a e essen ial o ensu e equi able pa icipa ion.
Mo eo e , he digi al di ide and skills gap may exace ba e inequali y i A CFTA’s bene i s acc ue mainly o capi al-
in ensi e sec o s o echnologically ad anced i ms. The Wo ld Bank (2020) emphasizes he need o complemen a y
social policies, including educa ion, heal h, and social p o ec ion sys ems, o cushion po en ial adjus men cos s and
enable b oad-based pa icipa ion in ade gains.
2.5. COVID-19, Ex e nal Shocks, and Resilience
Recen li e a u e also conside s he impac o global shocks—pa icula ly he COVID-19 pandemic—on he ajec o y
o A CFTA. The pandemic exposed A ica’s ulne abili y o ex e nal dis up ions, wi h lockdowns and supply chain
in e up ions se e ely a ec ing ade and p oduc ion. In his con ex , A CFTA is iewed as an oppo uni y o build
economic esilience by boos ing in a-A ican ade and educing dependence on dis an ma ke s (IMF, 2021).
Acco ding o Banga and e Velde (2020), egional alue chains in essen ial sec o s such as ood, pha maceu icals, and
digi al se ices could bene i om A CFTA, os e ing sel -su iciency and job c ea ion. Howe e , he pandemic also
delayed nego ia ions on key p o ocols and di e ed go e nmen a en ion o c isis managemen . Rebuilding momen um
equi es enewed poli ical commi men and in es men in c i ical in as uc u e.
The li e a u e highligh s ha A CFTA’s long- e m success hinges on in eg a ing i wi h A ica’s b oade de elopmen
agenda. This includes aligning A CFTA wi h clima e goals, ood secu i y s a egies, and digi al ans o ma ion ini ia i es
(UNECA, 2020). Such in eg a ion would enhance policy cohe ence and maximize de elopmen al syne gies.
2.6. Summa y o Li e a u e Re iew
The li e a u e on A CFTA is gene ally op imis ic abou i s po en ial o d i e A ica’s economic g ow h and
ans o ma ion. The ag eemen is ecognized as a landma k ini ia i e capable o o e coming ade agmen a ion,
enhancing indus ial capaci y, and imp o ing A ica’s posi ion in global ade. Howe e , schola s consis en ly
emphasize ha A CFTA is no a s andalone solu ion. Realizing i s po en ial equi es obus implemen a ion mechanisms,
in as uc u e in es men , inclusi e policies, and ins i u ional e o ms. Wi hou hese, he A CFTA may all sho o i s
p omises, ep oducing exis ing inequali ies and lea ing behind he mos ulne able economies and popula ions.
3. Theo e ical amewo k
To c i ically assess whe he he A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA) is a panacea o A ica’s g ow h and
de elopmen , his s udy is g ounded in a mul idisciplina y heo e ical amewo k ha d aws on classical ade heo y,
endogenous g ow h heo y, new ins i u ional economics, and egional in eg a ion heo y. These pe spec i es o e
insigh s in o he po en ial mechanisms h ough which A CFTA may in luence economic ou comes ac oss he con inen ,
as well as he limi a ions ha may impede i s e ec i eness.
3.1. Classical T ade Theo y and Compa a i e Ad an age
A he hea o ade libe aliza ion is he classical heo y o compa a i e ad an age, in oduced by Da id Rica do. This
heo y posi s ha coun ies gain om ade by specializing in he p oduc ion o goods in which hey ha e a ela i e
e iciency ad an age and ading o goods hey p oduce less e icien ly (Rica do, 1817/2004). Applied o A ica, his
heo y sugges s ha by emo ing a i s and ade ba ie s unde A CFTA, coun ies can alloca e esou ces mo e
e icien ly and inc ease oduc i i y.
Fo example, Kenya migh ocus on ag icul u al expo s, while Sou h A ica emphasizes manu ac u ed goods, and Ghana
capi alizes on cocoa p ocessing. Th ough ade, each coun y can bene i om specializa ion and inc eased ma ke
access. Howe e , c i ics a gue ha compa a i e ad an age o en locks de eloping economies in o low- alue p ima y
commodi y p oduc ion, ein o cing s uc u al dependency (Chang, 2002). The e o e, while use ul in explaining he basis
o ade, compa a i e ad an age mus be supplemen ed wi h s a egies ha p omo e economic di e si ica ion and
echnological upg ading.
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3.2. Endogenous G ow h Theo y
The endogenous g ow h heo y, pa icula ly ad anced by Rome (1994), posi s ha economic g ow h esul s om
in e nal ac o s such as human capi al de elopmen , inno a ion, and knowledge spillo e s, a he han ex e nal o ces
alone. Wi hin his amewo k, ade openness can se e as a ca alys o g ow h by acili a ing he di usion o
echnology, a ac ing o eign di ec in es men (FDI), and encou aging compe i ion and e iciency.
In he con ex o A CFTA, endogenous g ow h heo y p o ides a s ong a ionale o why educing ade ba ie s could
s imula e inno a ion and p oduc i i y. By c ea ing a la ge, in eg a ed ma ke , A CFTA can a ac in es men in sec o s
such as manu ac u ing, pha maceu icals, and digi al se ices—indus ies ha bene i om economies o scale and
knowledge sha ing (UNECA, 2020). Howe e , his heo y also highligh s he impo ance o complemen a y policies,
such as in es men in educa ion, in as uc u e, and esea ch and de elopmen (RandD), o ully ealize he g ow h
po en ial o ade libe aliza ion.
3.3. New Ins i u ional Economics (NIE)
New Ins i u ional Economics emphasizes he ole o ins i u ions—bo h o mal (laws, egula ions) and in o mal (no ms,
cus oms)—in shaping economic pe o mance (No h, 1990). NIE a gues ha ma ke e iciency is no au oma ic bu
depends on he quali y o go e nance, en o cemen o con ac s, and p o ec ion o p ope y igh s. Fo A CFTA o deli e
meaning ul de elopmen ou comes, s ong ins i u ions a e equi ed o manage ade dispu es, en o ce ade ules, and
coo dina e egional policies.
Weak ins i u ions a e a majo challenge in many A ican coun ies, mani es ing in co up ion, egula o y
inconsis encies, and limi ed en o cemen capaci y. As such, ins i u ional quali y is a c i ical media ing ac o in
de e mining whe he A CFTA will os e inclusi e de elopmen o deepen exis ing inequali ies. Acco ding o Acemoglu
and Robinson (2012), inclusi e ins i u ions ha p omo e b oad-based pa icipa ion and p o ec indi idual and
comme cial igh s a e essen ial o sus ainable de elopmen . This unde sco es he need o building ins i u ional
capaci ies a bo h na ional and egional le els as pa o A CFTA implemen a ion.
3.4. Regional In eg a ion Theo y
Regional in eg a ion heo y, pa icula ly as a icula ed by Balassa (1961), p o ides a amewo k o unde s anding he
di e en s ages and o ms o economic coope a ion among coun ies— om p e e en ial ade a eas o ull economic
unions. A CFTA ep esen s a mo e om agmen ed egional blocs owa d a b oade , con inen -wide in eg a ion. The
heo y sugges s ha such in eg a ion can lead o inc eased in a- egional ade, indus ial de elopmen , and collec i e
ba gaining powe in global ma ke s.
In he A ican con ex , egional in eg a ion also se es poli ical and s a egic goals. I os e s solida i y, educes
dependence on o me colonial powe s and ex e nal ac o s, and suppo s pan-A ican ideals. Howe e , he neo-
unc ionalis school o in eg a ion heo y poin s o he ole o sup ana ional ins i u ions in deepening in eg a ion
h ough a p ocess o spillo e e ec s (Haas, 1958). A CFTA’s success will he e o e depend no only on economic ac o s
bu also on he willingness o s a es o cede some so e eign y o con inen al ins i u ions such as he A CFTA Sec e a ia
and he A ican Union Commission.
The li e a u e also wa ns o he isks o asymme ic in eg a ion, whe e la ge and mo e de eloped economies bene i
disp opo iona ely. This can gene a e ensions and unde mine egional solida i y. Vine ’s (1950) heo y o ade
c ea ion and ade di e sion is ele an he e, as i dis inguishes be ween ade ha enhances wel a e (by eplacing
cos ly domes ic p oduc ion wi h cheape impo s om pa ne s) and ade ha educes wel a e (by di e ing ade
om mo e e icien ex e nal supplie s o less e icien egional pa ne s due o p e e en ial ea men ). Policymake s
mus he e o e design A CFTA in ways ha minimize ade di e sion and maximize mu ual bene i s.
3.5. Poli ical Economy o T ade Ag eemen s
Las ly, he poli ical economy app oach emphasizes he ole o powe , in e es s, and ins i u ions in shaping ade
ou comes. Acco ding o Rod ik (2018), ade policy is he esul o nego ia ions among in e es g oups, including
businesses, labo unions, and go e nmen s. In A ica, powe ul poli ical eli es and p i a e sec o ac o s may esis
e o ms ha h ea en hei economic in e es s, e en i such e o ms bene i he b oade economy.
Unde s anding he poli ical economy o A CFTA is essen ial o an icipa ing implemen a ion challenges. Fo ins ance,
en -seeking beha io , p o ec ionism, and bu eauc a ic ine ia can delay a i libe aliza ion o unde mine dispu e
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esolu ion mechanisms. Success ul implemen a ion will he e o e equi e no only echnical expe ise bu also poli ical
will, s akeholde engagemen , and mechanisms o accoun abili y.
This heo e ical amewo k in eg a es insigh s om classical and con empo a y economic heo ies o p o ide a
comp ehensi e lens h ough which o analyze A CFTA’s de elopmen al po en ial. Classical ade heo y and endogenous
g ow h heo y explain he expec ed bene i s o ade libe aliza ion and inno a ion. New ins i u ional economics
highligh s he ole o go e nance and ins i u ions, while egional in eg a ion heo y ames he b oade poli ical and
s a egic con ex o con inen al coope a ion. Las ly, poli ical economy pe spec i es help unpack he powe dynamics
ha may acili a e o hinde he ag eemen ’s implemen a ion.
Toge he , hese heo ies sugges ha A CFTA is no inhe en ly a panacea o A ica’s de elopmen challenges. Ra he ,
i s success depends on how e ec i ely i is embedded wi hin s ong ins i u ions, inclusi e policies, and coo dina ed
s a egies ha p omo e indus ializa ion, social equi y, and egional solida i y.
4. Me hodology
This s udy adop s a quali a i e esea ch design, complemen ed by empi ical analysis, o c i ically assess he po en ial
o he A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA) as a ca alys o A ica’s g ow h and de elopmen . A quali a i e
app oach is app op ia e gi en he explo a o y na u e o he esea ch, which seeks o unde s and he s uc u al,
ins i u ional, and policy dynamics su ounding he implemen a ion and impac s o A CFTA (C eswell and Po h, 2018).
The s udy elies on a combina ion o documen analysis and seconda y da a e iew o p o ide a comp ehensi e
examina ion o A CFTA’s amewo k, objec i es, and eme ging ou comes.P ima y da a sou ces include o icial policy
documen s and ag eemen s om he A ican Union (AU), he A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea Sec e a ia , and he
Uni ed Na ions Economic Commission o A ica (UNECA). These a e supplemen ed by ade and economic epo s om
he Wo ld Bank, In e na ional Mone a y Fund (IMF), and Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade and De elopmen
(UNCTAD). Empi ical ade indica o s such as in a-A ican ade olumes, GDP g ow h a es, a i s, and logis ics
pe o mance indices a e examined o e alua e A CFTA’s p ac ical implica ions.The s udy employs hema ic analysis o
iden i y key oppo uni ies and challenges associa ed wi h A CFTA implemen a ion. Themes include ma ke in eg a ion,
indus ializa ion, non- a i ba ie s, in as uc u e, and ins i u ional capaci y. Case s udies om selec ed A ican
coun ies and egional blocs—such as ECOWAS, EAC, and SADC—a e used o p o ide con ex ual insigh s and
compa a i e pe spec i es.This me hodology allows o an in-dep h, con ex -sensi i e unde s anding o how A CFTA
may con ibu e o o all sho o add essing A ica’s de elopmen al goals. By syn hesizing heo e ical insigh s wi h
empi ical e idence, he s udy aims o b idge he gap be ween policy aspi a ions and on- he-g ound eali ies (Yin, 2018).
5. Oppo uni ies p esen ed by A CFTA
The A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA) p esen s a his o ic oppo uni y o ans o m A ica’s economic
landscape and accele a e inclusi e de elopmen . As he la ges ee ade a ea in he wo ld by numbe o pa icipa ing
coun ies, encompassing 55 membe s o he A ican Union (AU), he A CFTA is p ojec ed o eshape he con inen ’s
ade dynamics by elimina ing a i s, educing non- a i ba ie s, and acili a ing he mo emen o goods, se ices,
people, and capi al. This sec ion explo es he majo oppo uni ies he A CFTA p esen s ac oss i e key domains: in a-
A ican ade, indus ializa ion, in es men a ac ion, economic di e si ica ion, and geopoli ical le e age.
5.1. Expansion o In a-A ican T ade
One o he mos immedia e and angible oppo uni ies o A CFTA is he expansion o in a-A ican ade. Cu en ly, in a-
A ican ade accoun s o only abou 15% o o al A ican ade, compa ed o 60% in Eu ope and 40% in Asia (UNCTAD,
2021). By emo ing a i s on 90% o goods and educing non- a i ba ie s, A CFTA is expec ed o signi ican ly boos
ade among A ican coun ies.
The Uni ed Na ions Economic Commission o A ica (UNECA, 2020) p ojec s ha he A CFTA could inc ease in a-
A ican ade by o e 52% by 2025 i e ec i ely implemen ed. This expansion would enable A ican coun ies o
di e si y hei ade pa ne s wi hin he con inen , educe dependence on ola ile global ma ke s, and e ain mo e alue
wi hin he egion. Enhanced ade connec i i y will also bene i landlocked coun ies by p o iding access o coas al
ma ke s and egional hubs, he eby os e ing inclusi e economic pa icipa ion.
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5.2. Indus ializa ion and Regional Value Chains
A CFTA o e s a unique pla o m o indus ial de elopmen h ough he c ea ion o egional alue chains. F agmen ed
ma ke s and limi ed economies o scale ha e long hinde ed A ica’s indus ial g ow h. By c ea ing a single ma ke o
o e 1.3 billion people wi h a combined GDP o o e $3.4 illion, A CFTA can a ac in es men in manu ac u ing, ag o-
p ocessing, pha maceu icals, and au omo i e indus ies (Wo ld Bank, 2020).
Acco ding o Signé and an de Ven (2020), egional alue chains suppo ed by A CFTA can enable A ican coun ies o
specialize in di e en segmen s o p oduc ion, he eby mo ing up he alue chain. Fo example, coun ies such as Cô e
d’I oi e and Ghana, which a e majo cocoa p oduce s, could p ocess mo e o hei cocoa in o inished chocola e p oduc s
ins ead o expo ing aw beans. Simila ly, ex ile and appa el alue chains can link co on p oduce s in Wes A ica wi h
manu ac u ing hubs in Eas A ica, inc easing he con inen ’s sha e in global ade.
The ag eemen also p omo es ha moniza ion o s anda ds and ade acili a ion measu es, which a e c ucial o he
in e ope abili y o p oduc ion sys ems. This in eg a ed ma ke could eplica e he indus ial successes obse ed in Eas
and Sou heas Asia, whe e egional p oduc ion ne wo ks ha e played a c i ical ole in de elopmen .
5.3. In es men P omo ion and P i a e Sec o G ow h
The c ea ion o a la ge and mo e p edic able ma ke unde A CFTA p o ides a s ong incen i e o Fo eign Di ec
In es men (FDI) and he g ow h o local en e p ises. In es o s a e mo e likely o in es in coun ies ha a e pa o
s able and in eg a ed ma ke s due o lowe ansac ion cos s and b oade consume bases (Banga and e Velde, 2020).
Fo A ican businesses, A CFTA p esen s an oppo uni y o scale up ope a ions, imp o e compe i i eness, and access
new cus ome s beyond na ional bo de s.
The A CFTA P o ocol on In es men aims o c ea e a conduci e en i onmen o bo h domes ic and in e na ional
in es men by es ablishing ules ha p o ec in es o s and encou age esponsible business p ac ices. Fu he mo e, he
an icipa ed inc ease in demand o logis ics, anspo a ion, and digi al in as uc u e will spu g ow h in sec o s ha
a e key o he ou h indus ial e olu ion (UNECA, 2020).
Small and medium-sized en e p ises (SMEs), which accoun o o e 80% o employmen in A ica, s and o bene i om
new ma ke oppo uni ies, especially i suppo ed wi h access o inance, in o ma ion, and capaci y-building p og ams.
The de elopmen o pan-A ican digi al pla o ms, e-comme ce solu ions, and in ech inno a ions could u he educe
ba ie s o en y o SMEs.
5.4. Economic Di e si ica ion and Resilience
Ano he c i ical oppo uni y lies in p omo ing economic di e si ica ion, pa icula ly o esou ce-dependen economies.
Many A ican coun ies ely hea ily on he expo o aw commodi ies, exposing hem o ex e nal shocks and p ice
ola ili y. A CFTA encou ages di e si ica ion by enabling coun ies o shi owa d non- adi ional expo s and
p ocessed goods.
Di e si ica ion, in u n, inc eases economic esilience, which is especially impo an in ligh o ecen dis up ions such
as he COVID-19 pandemic and global geopoli ical ensions. Acco ding o he IMF (2021), in a-A ican ade is mo e
di e si ied in e ms o p oduc ca ego ies han A ica’s ade wi h he es o he wo ld. This makes egional ade less
suscep ible o global commodi y cycles and o e s a mo e s able pa h owa d inclusi e g ow h.
By connec ing p oduce s o la ge egional ma ke s, A CFTA can s imula e inno a ion, encou age economies o scope,
and acili a e knowledge spillo e s. These dynamics can enhance p oduc i i y ac oss sec o s, including ag icul u e,
se ices, and manu ac u ing.
5.5. Enhanced Geopoli ical and Nego ia ion Le e age
Beyond economic gains, A CFTA p o ides A ica wi h enhanced geopoli ical le e age in global ade nego ia ions. As
indi idual coun ies, A ican s a es o en lack ba gaining powe in in e na ional o ums. Howe e , as a uni ied
con inen al ma ke , A ica can engage mo e e ec i ely wi h global pa ne s such as he Eu opean Union, China, he
Uni ed S a es, and eme ging economies (Luke and MacLeod, 2021).
A consolida ed A ican oice can be e de end he con inen ’s in e es s in ade, clima e change, digi al go e nance, and
in ellec ual p ope y igh s. Mo eo e , A CFTA aligns wi h he b oade goals o he A ican Union’s Agenda 2063, which
en isions a poli ically uni ed and economically in eg a ed con inen . I also complemen s exis ing pa ne ships such as
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he A ican G ow h and Oppo uni y Ac (AGOA) and he EU’s Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen s (EPAs), po en ially
eplacing agmen ed and unequal ag eemen s wi h a mo e balanced and s a egic amewo k.
The A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea p esen s a wide ange o oppo uni ies ha , i e ec i ely le e aged, could
ca alyze a new e a o g ow h and de elopmen ac oss he con inen . By boos ing in a-A ican ade, s imula ing
indus ializa ion, a ac ing in es men , p omo ing di e si ica ion, and enhancing A ica’s geopoli ical s anding, A CFTA
o e s a bluep in o sel -sus aining de elopmen . Howe e , he ealiza ion o hese oppo uni ies depends on
comp ehensi e implemen a ion, poli ical will, ins i u ional e o ms, and inclusi e s a egies ha ensu e no coun y o
social g oup is le behind.
6. Challenges and Limi a ions o A CFTA
While he A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA) p esen s immense oppo uni ies o economic g ow h and
in eg a ion, se e al signi ican challenges and limi a ions h ea en i s success ul implemen a ion and abili y o se e as
a panacea o A ica’s de elopmen . These obs acles span ac oss in as uc u al de ici s, ins i u ional weaknesses,
poli ical economy dynamics, non- a i ba ie s, unequal capaci ies among membe s a es, and limi ed p oduc i e
capaci y.
6.1. In as uc u al and Logis ical De iciencies
A majo challenge unde mining A CFTA’s objec i es is A ica’s poo in as uc u e, especially in anspo a ion, ene gy,
and digi al connec i i y. In a-A ican ade is signi ican ly hinde ed by he absence o e icien oad ne wo ks, po s,
and ailway sys ems ha acili a e he smoo h mo emen o goods and se ices (UNECA, 2020). High anspo a ion
cos s—es ima ed o be up o 75% highe han he global a e age—a e a majo de e en o egional ade (Wo ld Bank,
2020).
Wi hou subs an ial in es men s in c oss-bo de in as uc u e, pa icula ly in landlocked coun ies, he A CFTA may
s uggle o ansla e policy in o p ac ice. Fu he mo e, digi al in as uc u e gaps limi he g ow h o e-comme ce and
digi al ade, bo h o which a e inc easingly i al o compe i i eness.
6.2. Weak Ins i u ional and Regula o y Capaci y
The e ec i eness o A CFTA depends hea ily on he s eng h o na ional and egional ins i u ions, including cus oms
au ho i ies, egula o y agencies, and dispu e esolu ion mechanisms. Howe e , many A ican s a es su e om weak
go e nance s uc u es, limi ed echnical expe ise, and co up ion, which impede he en o cemen o ade ules and
unde mine in es o con idence (No h, 1990).
Fo ins ance, inconsis en applica ion o a i s, delays a bo de pos s, and lack o mu ual ecogni ion o s anda ds and
ce i ica ions can neu alize he bene i s o o mal libe aliza ion. As UNECA (2020) no es, “A CFTA implemen a ion is
no jus a legal exe cise bu a deeply ins i u ional one.”
6.3. Non-Ta i Ba ie s (NTBs)
Al hough A CFTA aims o elimina e a i s on 90% o goods, non- a i ba ie s emain a mo e complex and pe sis en
issue. These include bu eauc a ic ed ape, impo licensing equi emen s, sani a y and phy osani a y es ic ions, and
ules-o -o igin cons ain s. Acco ding o UNCTAD (2021), NTBs cos A ican economies mo e han a i s and a e o en
poli ically mo i a ed o p o ec ionis in na u e.
The A CFTA’s Non-Ta i Ba ie s Repo ing, Moni o ing and Elimina ion mechanism is a s ep in he igh di ec ion, bu
i s e ec i eness depends on widesp ead usage, anspa ency, and en o cemen .
6.4. Unequal Economic Capaci ies Among Membe S a es
A majo limi a ion is he he e ogenei y o A ican economies. Coun ies such as Nige ia, Sou h A ica, and Egyp ha e
ela i ely de eloped indus ial bases, while many o he s a e agile, con lic -a ec ed, o hea ily elian on aw
commodi y expo s. This asymme y c ea es he isk ha la ge economies may disp opo iona ely bene i om ade
libe aliza ion, exace ba ing egional inequali ies (Signé and an de Ven, 2020).
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Smalle o less compe i i e economies may expe ience deindus ializa ion o ade di e sion, especially i local i ms
a e unable o compe e wi h mo e e icien p oduce s. To add ess his, he A CFTA includes p o isions o special and
di e en ial ea men , bu hei p ac ical implemen a ion emains unce ain.
6.5. Poli ical Will and P o ec ionis Tendencies
The success o A CFTA hinges on poli ical commi men a bo h na ional and con inen al le els. Howe e , en enched
p o ec ionis endencies, eli e in e es s, and domes ic poli ical p essu es o en lead o eluc ance in ully libe alizing
sensi i e sec o s (Rod ik, 2018). Some coun ies ha e delayed a i ica ion o implemen a ion, while o he s selec i ely
apply ade ules o shield domes ic indus ies.
Mo eo e , o e lapping membe ships in mul iple egional economic communi ies (RECs) wi h di e ing ules and
agendas complica e ha moniza ion e o s. As a esul , he A CFTA may ace coo dina ion challenges unless he e is a
cohe en policy alignmen and s ong AU leade ship.
6.6. Limi ed P oduc i e Capaci y and Value Addi ion
A ica’s limi ed indus ial and p oduc i e capaci y is a s uc u al cons ain on he bene i s o A CFTA. Many coun ies
lack he capi al, echnology, and skilled labo equi ed o scale up p oduc ion and compe e egionally. Consequen ly,
hey isk becoming ne impo e s wi hin he ee ade a ea, which could wo sen ade imbalances and unde mine local
indus ies (Banga and e Velde, 2020).
Fu he mo e, wi hou delibe a e policies o suppo alue addi ion and indus ial upg ading, coun ies may emain
apped in low- alue commodi y expo s. This ein o ces a cycle o unde de elopmen and limi s he ans o ma ional
po en ial o he A CFTA.
While A CFTA ep esen s a monumen al s ep owa d con inen al economic in eg a ion, i s success is no gua an eed.
The ealiza ion o i s ull po en ial depends on add essing he deep-sea ed challenges o in as uc u e, ins i u ional
capaci y, economic dispa i ies, and poli ical commi men . A CFTA is he e o e no a panacea, bu a powe ul ool ha
mus be complemen ed by sus ained e o ms, in es men , and inclusi e s a egies o achie e b oad-based A ican
de elopmen .
7. Case S udies
Empi ical e idence om A ican coun ies e eals how he A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea (A CFTA) is beginning
o in luence ade dynamics, egional in eg a ion, and economic de elopmen . While ull implemen a ion emains in
p og ess, selec case s udies om Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya, and Sou h A ica demons a e he po en ial and limi a ions o
A CFTA in p ac ice. These examples highligh a ied expe iences based on poli ical commi men , ins i u ional eadiness,
in as uc u e de elopmen , and indus ial capaci y.
7.1. Ghana: Fi s Shipmen Unde A CFTA
Ghana was among he i s coun ies o ope a ionalize A CFTA by launching he i s comme cial shipmen unde he
ag eemen in Janua y 2021. Ghana Expo P omo ion Au ho i y (GEPA) acili a ed he expo o locally manu ac u ed
goods o Sou h A ica unde A CFTA p e e ences, ma king a symbolic and s a egic mo e owa d in a-A ican ade
(GEPA, 2021).
This case demons a es Ghana’s ins i u ional eadiness and commi men o A CFTA. The coun y has in es ed
signi ican ly in ade acili a ion in as uc u e, including he es ablishmen o he Na ional A CFTA Coo dina ion O ice
and digi ized po sys ems. Acco ding o Amoah and Assan (2022), Ghana’s ea ly engagemen has inc eased awa eness
among expo e s and c ea ed oppo uni ies o small and medium-sized en e p ises (SMEs) o en e egional ma ke s.
Howe e , challenges emain, including limi ed p oduc ion capaci y and high anspo a ion cos s ha hinde
compe i i eness.
7.2. Rwanda: Le e aging Regional T ade and Digi al In eg a ion
Rwanda has eme ged as a model o le e aging egional in eg a ion h ough ins i u ional e o ms and inno a ion. As a
landlocked coun y wi h a small domes ic ma ke , Rwanda sees A CFTA as a c i ical pa hway o economic di e si ica ion
and expo g ow h. The coun y has ha monized se e al ade egula ions and ac i ely pa icipa es in he A ican T ade
Obse a o y, a pla o m ha acili a es ma ke in o ma ion exchange ac oss A CFTA s a es (UNECA, 2020).
