In es iga ing and modelling ipping dynamics
in social me abolism
Concep ual conside a ions on esilience and malleabili y
Helmu Habe l
In e na ional Indus ial Ecology Day 2025, session “Indus ial Ecology app oaches
used in he eme ging ield o Posi i e Tipping Poin s”, No 21, 2025 (online)
This esea ch was unded in whole o in pa by he
Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) [10.55776/EFP5]
Nonlinea sys ems
& ipping poin s
•Tipping poin = uns able sys em s a e: small pe u ba ion esul in undamen ally di e en ou comes
•A a ipping poin , a sys em eo ganizes i sel (in con as o g adual change), o en i e e sibly, when i is
d awn in o a basin o a ac ion
•Examples om clima e science: unaway clima e change, e.g. ollowing hawing o pe ma os o
b eakdown o C- ich ecosys ems (Amazon basin)
•A e he e ipping elemen s in social sys ems?
•Posi i e ipping poin s, e.g. ans o ma ion o sus ainable social me abolism
•Ad e se ipping poin s, e.g. supply-chain dis up ions, lip owa ds au oc acy
3
Blocked shipping ou es Wa a e
Impac s o he clima e c isis
Mul iple c ises jeopa dize esou ce supply
Geopoli ical ensions Pandemics
→ shocks & dis u bances
→ nonlinea dynamics ( ipping phenomena)
→ challenges es ablished physical and
ins i u ional s uc u es
This esea ch was unded in whole o in pa by he
Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) [10.55776/EFP5]
•Dis up i e e en s hi highly complex global supply ne wo ks and may esul in a wide ange o
ipping phenomena
•They may con ibu e o changes in esou ce use as well as wellbeing and dis ibu ion
•They al e powe ela ions and op ion spaces o ac o s and ins i u ions aiming o wo k owa ds
sus ainabili y
Assessing ne wo k e ec s in social me abolism
REMASS | Resilience and Malleabili y o Social Me abolism | doi: 10.55776/EFP5 | h ps:// emass.boku.ac.a /
This esea ch was unded in whole o in pa by he
Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) [10.55776/EFP5]
Me hods used in SMR
•Desc ip i e: Accoun ing o socio-me abolic
s ocks and lows. Da a iangula ion used o
closing da a gaps.
•Linea : S ock- low models in dynamic MFA
ace in lows, ou lows and accumula ion o
s ocks bu lack ep esen a ion o eedbacks
•S a ic/s uc u al: En i onmen ally-ex ended
Mul i- egional Inpu -Ou pu analysis links
inpu s and p essu es o inal consump ion o
p oduc s
•Diagnos ic: E alua ions o biophysical
easibili y o supply-demand op ions (‚op ion
spaces‘
Despi e ecen p og ess, cu en me hods o socio-me abolic
esea ch (SMR) can‘ deal wi h nonlinea i ies
Me hods needed o deal wi h ipping poin s
•Analyze non-linea dynamics: Tipping poin s
a e non-linea i ies in ajec o ies o complex
sys ems → Models need o be able o ep esen
such phenomena
•Rep esen complex ne wo ked sys ems
cha ac e ized by in e ac ions be ween many
elemen s connec ed by posi i e and nega i e
eedback loops
•In SMR, one would need o in eg a e social
science (ac o s, ins i u ions, powe ela ions,
e c.) wi h sociome abolic da a & models
(huge g anula i y needed)
REMASS | Resilience and Malleabili y o Social Me abolism | doi: 10.55776/EFP5 | h ps:// emass.boku.ac.a /
This esea ch was unded in whole o in pa by he
Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) [10.55776/EFP5]
Aim: Ha ness big da a o c ea e
a new ‘a omis ic’ unde s anding
o he economy
Me hods: Complex ne wo ked
sys ems models, da a-d i en 1:1
agen -based models
Ou comes:
•Quan i ica ion o esilience
•Linking na ional supply
chains on i m-le el o
ma e ial lows and
p o isioning sys ems
Analyzing na ional supply chain ne wo ks
REMASS | Resilience and Malleabili y o Social Me abolism | doi: 10.55776/EFP5 | h ps:// emass.boku.ac.a /
This esea ch was unded in whole o in pa by he
Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) [10.55776/EFP5]
•Supply chains a e non- i ial and highly
dynamic
•Unde s anding dynamics o social
me abolism a ipping poin s needs models
dealing wi h econ igu a ions o supply chains
and hei unexpec ed ou comes
•Recon igu a ions o supply chains can lead o
unexpec ed ou comes
(see oy model)
•This equi es high- esolu ion da a
ep esen ing ne wo ks o indi idual economic
agen s, e.g. i ms o households
•Complex ne wo ked sys em models based on
VAT da a showing in e ac ions o all i ms in
a coun y
Tackling unexpec ed ou comes in complex ne wo ked sys ems
REMASS | Resilience and Malleabili y o Social Me abolism | doi: 10.55776/EFP5 | h ps:// emass.boku.ac.a /
This esea ch was unded in whole o in pa by he
Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) [10.55776/EFP5]
P o isioning sys ems a e key o ans o ming
biophysical inpu s in o social ou comes
REMASS | Resilience and Malleabili y o Social Me abolism | doi: 10.55776/EFP5 | h ps:// emass.boku.ac.a /
Ongoing: sys ema ic e iew & concep ual ope a ioniza ion
This esea ch was unded in whole o in pa by he
Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) [10.55776/EFP5]
Le e age poin s: he ole o ma e ial s ocks
Haas e al 2026. Ecological Economics, 239, 108759
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108759
REMASS | Resilience and Malleabili y o Social Me abolism | doi: 10.55776/EFP5 | h ps:// emass.boku.ac.a /
•Socioeconomic ma e ial s ocks
a e a key d i e o unsus ainable
esou ce use
•Thei key ole was no su icien ly
ecognized in p e ious e sions o
he le e age poin amewo k
•Socioeconomic ma e ial s ocks
o e en y poin s o
ans o ma ion s a egies
•Example: design o se lemen s –
a oid u ban sp awl
