NEW ARCTIC REALITIES
BETWEEN CONFLICTING INTERESTS
AND AVENUES FOR COOPERATION
Se a ima And ee a, Klaus Dodds, Nadja Douglas,
Ch is oph Hum ich and Thomas Naw a h
ZOiS REPORT
No.1 / 2024 · Ma ch 2024
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
2
Con en
02 ___ Summa y
04 ___ In oduc ion
07 ___ A c ic Secu i y: Tales o egional dispu es and g ea powe compe i ion
09 ___ A c ic ‘swing geopoli ics’
12 ___ Clima e change and science coope a ion in he A c ic
15 ___ A c ic socie ies and peoples — eme ging insecu i ies
18 ___ Coope a ion a a c oss oads: The u u e o he A c ic Council
20 ___ Conclusion: The ou look o A c ic go e nance and coope a ion
21 ___ Imp in
Summa y
Russia’s wa agains Uk aine has signi ican ly impac ed go e nance and in e -
na ional coope a ion in he A c ic. Since Feb ua y 2022 Wes e n A c ic s a es
ha e suspended mos mul ila e al economic and scien i ic coope a ion wi h
Russia, and he A c ic Council, he egion’s key in e go e nmen al o um, is
cu en ly unable o ul il i s ole as an in e ace be ween science and poli ics.
The esul ing collapse o pan-A c ic clima e esea ch and en i onmen al p o-
ec ion could ha e d as ic consequences in he long e m. Inc eased mili a isa-
ion and esou ce ex ac ion also ha e implica ions o secu i y and s abili y in
he egion. Geopoli ical ensions and a na ow ocus on s a egic in e es s may
esul in spillo e e ec s on he A c ic egion and u he dis ega d o he con-
ce ns o indigenous popula ions. While he A c ic Council g apples wi h i s cu -
en es ain s, o he coope a i e amewo ks, especially legally binding ag ee-
men s, emain ele an . As well as looking a he p ac ical consequences o he
wa o coope a ion wi hin he A c ic Council and beyond, his epo analyses
i s e ec s on long- e m A c ic dynamics and discusses possible ways o dealing
wi h cu en challenges mul ila e ally wi hou legimi ising Russian agg ession.
These a e ou main indings and ecommenda ions:
– Rising poli ical and mili a y ensions in he A c ic p eda e he ull-scale in-
asion o Uk aine and s em om Russia’s asse ion o i s pe cei ed secu i y
needs in he egion.
– While p e iously no a majo conce n, he secu i y dilemma in he egion has
become mo e salien since Feb ua y 2022. The wa in Uk aine has exposed
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
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he limi s o Russia’s con en ional mili a y capabili ies. I is now ha d p essed
o ealise i s g ea powe ambi ions in he A c ic, bu he po en ial o mili-
a y escala ion in he egion is likely o emain low.
– To manage nuclea de e ence and educe he isk o an unin ended escala-
ion, an A c ic Mili a y Code o Conduc should be d awn up. In he mean-
ime, exis ing bila e al ea ies om he Cold Wa e a on c isis communica-
ion and he p e en ion o mili a y escala ion should be eac i a ed.
– In he ield o ene gy poli ics, he bi u ca ion o he A c ic in o a Russian-
Asian A c ic and a Eu opean and No h Ame ican A c ic is becoming appa -
en . When Wes e n sanc ions led some Wes e n i ms o disengage om he
Russian ene gy ma ke , Russia looked o non-Wes e n coun ies like India
and China o he in es men , skilled labou and echnology i equi es o
ealise impo an ene gy p ojec s in he A c ic. Fo Wes e n A c ic s a es, en-
e gy independence om Russia was a p io i y, and No way has become he
EU’s main gas supplie . In a wo-p onged s a egy necessi a ed by he wa ,
hese s a es a e con inuing o de elop ossil uels while also suppo ing e-
newable ene gy p ojec s.
– Science coope a ion in he A c ic has allen ic im o he wa in Uk aine.
Da a exchange be ween Russian and Wes e n clima e esea che s is se e ely
cu ailed. The consequences o his could be de as a ing: A c ic wa ming is
an impo an indica o o global clima e de elopmen s, and wi hou da a ex-
change i will be impossible o model he b oade impac s o clima e change.
Gi en he u gency o he clima e c isis, e e y e o should be made o acili-
a e da a exchange beyond o icial s a e channels, o example by he In e -
go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC) o he In e na ional Council
o he Explo a ion o he Sea (ICES).
– E en be o e Feb ua y 2022, A c ic indigenous popula ions we e a pa icula ly
ulne able segmen o he A c ic popula ion. Thei p oblems ha e now been
compounded by he wa in Uk aine. Wi h he pa alysis o he A c ic Council,
hey ha e los hei main pla o m o mul ila e al engagemen in he egion.
They a e also eeling he e ec s o wa - ela ed in la ion, ene gy supply issues
and in e up ed supply chains. Indigenous communi ies in he Russian A c-
ic ha e been a pa icula ocus o Russia’s ec ui men policy, wi h he esul
ha a disp opo iona ely high numbe o men om hese communi ies ha e
died in Uk aine.
– The b eakdown in ela ions be ween Russia and Wes e n A c ic s a es has
le he A c ic Council unable o ul il i s esea ch manda e and ac as an
in e ace be ween science and poli ics. The e is a consensus among he se -
en Wes e n A c ic s a es ha some le el o collabo a ion wi h Russia is s ill
necessa y. Unde No way’s chai ship, echnical and scien i ic coope a ion a
wo king-g oup le el coope a ion has been esumed wi h Russian scien is s.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
4
In oduc ion
The ull-scale Russian in asion o Uk aine on 24 Feb ua y 2022 sen shock-
wa es a ound he globe, and has also had undamen al consequences o he
A c ic egion. The A c ic egion consis s o he eigh A c ic s a es ( he Uni ed
S a es, Canada, Iceland, No way, Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Denma k
wi h G eenland and he Fa oe Islands) and a numbe o indigenous peoples,
some o which anscend na ional bo de s. Russia is one o he mos impo -
an A c ic s a es, wi h he A c ic Zone o he Russian Fede a ion (AZRF) ac-
coun ing o o e 50 % o he A c ic coas line as well as hal o he o e all
popula ion o he A c ic.1 FIGURE 1
The A c ic is wa ming a an ala ming speed2 and 75 pe cen o i s o me
sea ice olume is al eady los . The nega i e e ec s o his a e cu en ly
being el by he inhabi an s o he A c ic, and a possible ailu e o limi
global wa ming o 2˚C in he A c ic would also ha e d as ic consequences
o global popula ions. A he same ime, he mel ing o sea ice is opening
up new ansoceanic seaways and inc easing access o he egion’s weal h
o esou ces, including c i ical mine als, p ecious me als and a e ea hs
needed o mode n echnologies. Regional economic de elopmen and e-
sou ce ex ac ion ha e ga he ed pace and mili a y ac i i y is also inc eas-
ing3. The economic in e es s in he A c ic a e immense — and could p e ail
o e clima e p o ec ion conce ns.
Since i s incep ion in 1996, he A c ic Council has been an a ena o mul ila -
e al coope a ion among he eigh A c ic s a es, six o ganisa ions ep esen -
ing A c ic indigeneous peoples (also known as ‘pe manen pa icipan s’), six
wo king g oups and a ound 40 non-A c ic s a es and in e na ional o ganisa-
ions wi h obse e s a us. The wo k o he A c ic Council can be desc ibed
as policy-shaping a he han policy-making. I has a s ong scien i ic unc-
ion: he wo king g oups conduc esea ch and ha e played a c ucial ole in
gene a ing knowledge and global awa eness abou A c ic clima e and en i-
onmen al issues. Thei indings eed in o poli ical p ocesses in he Council
and guide he sea ch o solu ions o eal and po en ial egional p oblems.
The A c ic Council has a ema kably good ack eco d o coope a ion on
issues anging om en i onmen al p o ec ion and sus ainable de elop-
men o ma i ime na iga ion and biodi e si y. Fo a long ime, i appea ed
o exempli y ‘A c ic excep ionalism’,4 he no ion ha he A c ic is a place
apa whe e peace ul coexis ence is possible despi e geopoli ical ensions
elsewhe e. This A c ic excep ionalism and any kind o ci cumpola ision
has been upended by Russia’s agg ession. As a di ec eac ion o he in asion
in Feb ua y 2022, he Wes ended mos mul ila e al economic and scien i ic
1 A c ic Council, The Russian Fede a ion, h ps://a c ic-council.o g/abou /s a es/ ussian- ede a-
ion/.
2 IPCC, IPCC Special Repo on he Ocean and C yosphe e in a Changing Clima e, edi ed by H.-O.
Pö ne , D.C. Robe s e al. (Camb idge, UK and New Yo k: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, 2019),
h ps://doi.o g/10.1017/9781009157964. See also Mika Ran anen e al., ‘The A c ic Has Wa med
Nea ly Fou Times Fas e han he Globe since 1979’, Communica ions Ea h & En i onmen 3,
no. 1 (2022): 1.
3 CSIS. A c ic Mili a y Ac i i y T acke , h ps://a c icmili a y acke .csis.o g/.
4 Juha Käpylä and Ha i Mikkola, On A c ic Excep ionalism: C i ical Re lec ions in he Ligh o he
A c ic Sun ise Case and he C isis in Uk aine. FIIA wo king pape , ol 85. (Helsinki: The Finnish
Ins i u e o In e na ional A ai s, 2015).
The economic in e es s
in he A c ic a e
immense — and could
p e ail o e clima e
p o ec ion conce ns.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
5
FIGURE 1
The A c ic egion
Map based on: h ps://www.ma e a.o g/w/images/9/9e/A c ic.s g
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
6
coope a ion wi h Russia in he A c ic.5 This le he A c ic Council and a
numbe o join clima e esea ch p ojec s pa alysed. While he se en Wes -
e n A c ic s a es pu hei wo k o he Council on hold, Russia, as Council
chai om 2021 o 2023, inc easingly sough o coope a e wi h ‘ iendly’
coun ies like India and China in he egion. In he in e ening pe iod, Fin-
land and Sweden op ed o join NATO.
A c ic popula ions — especially indigenous ones — a e s ongly a ec ed by
he changing clima e and geopoli ical landscape in hei egion. Some indig-
enous A c ic ac o s ha e chosen o a icula e hei mos p essing conce ns
as secu i y issues, o en amed as ‘human secu i y’, in an a emp o mobi-
lise g ea e a en ion and s a e esponse.6 Indigenous popula ions depend
on heal hy ecosys ems, eedom o mo emen and coope a ion be ween he
A c ic s a es, ye he pa alysis o he A c ic Council has aken away hei
main pla o m o mul ila e al engagemen in he egion.
The ini ial e mina ion o all coope a ion wi h Russia in he A c ic Council
ollowing i s ull-scale in asion o Uk aine was a poli ical impe a i e. Ne -
e heless, coope a ion o a leas con e sa ions on impo an scien i ic and
echnical issues will ha e o be esumed a some poin . Add essing he p ob-
lem o clima e change in he A c ic is no some hing ha can be pos poned
un il a e he wa . In May 2023, No way succeeded Russia as chai o he
Council and he e a e hopes ha some s eps o es o e ela ions wi h Rus-
sia in A c ic a ai s migh be possible in he nex wo yea s. In a i s s ep,
No way b oke ed an ag eemen among all A c ic s a es in Sep embe 2023
o con inue in o mal collabo a ion wi hin he wo king g oups.7 Howe e ,
beyond en i onmen al p o ec ion and sus ainable de elopmen , he com-
plex combina ion o adi ional and non- adi ional secu i y challenges in
he A c ic will also equi e mul ila e al coope a ion and he pa icipa ion o
non-s a e ac o s like indigenous peoples.
This epo assembles he esul s o he Wo kshop ‘In e disciplina y Ap-
p oaches o Changing A c ic Reali ies — be ween Coope a ion and Con lic -
ing In e es s’ o ganised online on 24 May 2023 by he KonKoop Ne wo k a
he Cen e o Eas Eu opean and In e na ional S udies (ZOiS). I add esses
de elopmen s in he A c ic egion since Feb ua y 2022 and he esul ing
insecu i ies om a s a egic, geo-economic, social and clima e esea ch pe -
spec i e. We ask wha kind o coope a ion emains indispensable o add ess
hese insecu i ies and h ough which mul i- o bila e al channels can he
necessa y in e ac ion now be o ganised.
5 Russia also wi hd ew om some o ums o mul ila e al coope a ion. See: Minis y o Fo eign
A ai s o he Russian Fede a ion, ‘Fo eign Minis y s a emen on Russia’s wi hd awal om
he Ba en s Eu o-A c ic Council’, 18 Sep embe 2023, h ps://mid. u/en/ o eign_policy/
so/1904899/.
6 Wil id G ea es, ‘Indigenous peoples’, in: Rou ledge Handbook o A c ic Secu i y, edi ed by
Gunhild Hoogensen Gjø , Ma c Lan eigne, Ho a io Sam-Agg ey, 313 – 326 (London: Rou ledge,
2020).
7 As i Ed a dsen, ‘Ligh a he End o he Tunnel o he A c ic Council’, High No h News, 12
Sep embe 2023, h ps://www.highno hnews.com/en/ligh -end- unnel-a c ic-council.
The complex combina-
ion o adi ional and
non- adi ional secu i y
challenges in he A c ic
equi es mul ila e al
coope a ion and he
pa icipa ion o non-
s a e ac o s.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
7
A c ic Secu i y: Tales o egional dispu es and
g ea powe compe i ion
The e idence o heigh ened poli ical and mili a y ensions in he A c ic
seems o e whelming. Poli ical coope a ion be ween Russia and Wes e n
A c ic s a es has been e mina ed, paused, o educed. The p e ious empha-
sis on good collabo a ion and neighbou ly ela ions has all bu anished
om poli ical he o ic. While NATO’s new s a egic concep does no explic-
i ly men ion he A c ic, he alliance has u ned i s a en ion o he egion
and holds mili a y exe cises he e.8 Russia’s mili a y p esence and ac i i ies
ha e also inc eased, as ha e ac i i ies usually desc ibed as hyb id h ea s.9
The wo mos common explana ions gi en o hese ising ensions in he
A c ic a e bo h lawed. The i s cen es on egional causes and sugges s ha
global wa ming has led o a sc amble o esou ces and shipping lanes as
well as agg a a ing un esol ed dispu es o e ma i ime zones o bo de s.10
Howe e , as he No wegian A c ic expe And eas Øs hagen has poin ed
ou , his is a misconcep ion.11 Nei he compe i ion o e esou ces no dis-
pu es abou ma i ime bo de s can con incingly be linked o he ise o mili-
a y ensions in he egion. On he con a y: in he Ba en s Sea, o example,
he p ospec o esou ce ex ac ion ac ually u he ed ag eemen be ween
No way and Russia on a long-dispu ed ma i ime bo de in 2010.
The second explana ion posi s ha he A c ic has become an a ena o g ea
powe compe i ion, wi h global ensions spilling o e in o he egion. Ye , i
is e y di icul o iden i y pa e ns consis en wi h g ea powe compe i ion
in he A c ic. The e is no much o compe e o e : he sphe es o con ol, ac-
cess, and in luence a e la gely se led, and Russia’s sup emacy he e is an
undeniable ac . E en i he ac i i ies o China and India and hei ecen
s a egic pa ne ships wi h Russia ha e aised eyeb ows in he Wes e n
A c ic s a es, hey ha e no ye uelled poli ical ensions.
I hese explana ions do no cap u e he easons o ising ensions in he
A c ic, hen wha does? A he hea o he p oblem a e Russia’s pe cei ed
powe , esou ce and secu i y needs, which p eda e he in asion o Feb ua y
2022. G ounded in he Pu in egime’s g ea powe aspi a ions and opposi-
ion o he Wes , hese needs cen e, i s ly, on access o and powe p ojec ion
in o he No h A lan ic. Secondly, on s a egic nuclea de e ence h ough
second-s ike capabili ies deli e ed by subma ines unde he cen al A c ic
Ocean sea ice, bombe s, o in e con inen al missiles sho o e he pole as he
8 See NATO, S a egic Concep (B ussels: NATO, 2022), h ps://www.na o.in /s a egic-concep /.
Fo he mos ecen s a emen on NATO in he A c ic, see Rob Baue , ‘The NATO Pe spec-
i e on he A c ic’, A c ic Ci cle Assembly, 21 Oc obe 2023, h ps://www.you ube.com/
wa ch? =R5KmhabOXic.
9 Ka a ina Ke yso a and Gab iella G icius, Coun e ing Russia’s Hyb id Th ea s in he A c ic (London:
Eu opean Leade ship Ne wo k, 2023), h ps://www.eu opeanleade shipne wo k.o g/wp-con-
en /uploads/2023/12/23_11_22_Coun e ing-Russias-Hyb id-Th ea s-in- he-A c ic15_ES_EK40.
pd ; Ma hieu Boulègue, Russia’s Mili a y Pos u e in he A c ic. Managing Ha d Powe in a ‘Low
Tension’ En i onmen (London: Cha ham House, Russia and Eu asia P og amme Resea ch Pape ,
2019), h ps://www.cha hamhouse.o g/si es/de aul / iles/2019-06-28-Russia-Mili a y-A c ic.pd .
10 Sco G. Bo ge son, ‘A c ic Mel down. The Economic and Secu i y Implica ions o Global Wa m-
ing’, Fo eign A ai s, 87 (2008): 63.
11 And eas Øs hagen, ‘Fi e Misconcep ions in A c ic Secu i y and Geopoli ics’, The A c ic Ins i u e,
1 June 2023, h ps://www. hea c icins i u e.o g/ i e-misconcep ions-a c ic-secu i y-geopoli ics/.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
8
sho es dis ance be ween Russia and he Ame ican con inen . And inally,
on he con en ional objec de ence o he esou ce- ich A c ic Zone o he
Russian Fede a ion (AZRF) and i s economically i al esou ce-ex ac ion
in as uc u es, which now no longe ha e access o Wes e n expe ise and
echnology.
Fo he Wes , he i s wo a e a majo secu i y conce n. Access o he No h
A lan ic om he A c ic Ocean is h ough he so-called S alba d Channel
and he G eenland-Iceland-Uni ed Kingdom (GIUK) Gap. The na al ha bou s
o he Kola Peninsula, which also hos he Russian nuclea subma ine o ce,
a e loca ed in he same gene al neighbou hood. These ha bou s and access
o he No h A lan ic a e p o ec ed by he Russian concep o Bas ion De-
ence, which has bo h a de ensi e and an o ensi e dimension. Bas ion De-
ence al eady includes s a egies aimed a a ea denial o NATO o ces, and
migh in u u e en ail mili a y ope a ions o p e en S alba d and No h-
e n No way om becoming bases o NATO su eillance o Russian mili a y
FIGURE 2
Bas ion De ence and he GIUK Gap
Map based on: h ps://www. iia. i/s /publika ion/ he-geos a egic-a c ic? ead
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
9
ac i i ies in he S alba d Channel and Ba en s Sea.12 The esul ing mili a i-
sa ion is, howe e , no an indica o o g ea powe compe i ion. I is symp-
oma ic a he o an old- ashioned secu i y dilemma in which an inc ease
in one pa y’s secu i y diminishes he o he pa y’s pe cei ed secu i y and
hus p o okes coun e measu es, which in u n se o u he eac ions o
inc ease each side’s mili a y p esence and capabili ies. FIGURE 2
This secu i y dilemma has no come abou as a esul o Russian agg ession
in Uk aine, bu i s salience has inc eased. Russia’s decision o e-mili a ise
and e-secu i ise he A c ic Zone o he Russian Fede a ion o e he las wo
decades is consis en wi h he dominan geopoli ical na a i e unde P esi-
den Pu in ha Russia’s ‘on ological secu i y’ has been jeopa dised by NATO
expansionism. In Uk aine, i has become clea ha he Russian a med o ces
a e no capable o ealising hei mili a y objec i es by con en ional means.
Ye i is able and — wi h bla an dis ega d o in e na ional humani a ian
law o ci ilian casual ies and cos s — willing o in lic se ious damage and
ha m. A he same ime, Russia is in no posi ion o keep up an a ms ace
wi h NATO s a es. The appa en limi s and o e s e ching o Russia’s con-
en ional mili a y capabili ies in Uk aine ha e led o an inc eased use o
nuclea he o ic and hyb id ac i i ies. Fo he A c ic, he consequences o
his migh be pa adoxical: while ensions will emain high, he escala ion
po en ial will p obably be low and hus, in e ms o in e na ional con lic ,
he A c ic migh emain s able.
In his cons ella ion, he p ospec o secu i y- ela ed coope a ion seems
bleak. The al e ing o nuclea a ms con ol be ween Russia and he USA as
well as he pa alysis o he O ganiza ion and Co-ope a ion in Eu ope (OSCE)
me ely e lec he s a e o ensions. Any a emp o esol e he A c ic secu i y
dilemma h ough disa mamen o e en jus con idence-building measu es
seems u opian now. Howe e , managing nuclea de e ence and educing
he isk o unwan ed o acciden al escala ion should be in bo h sides’ in e -
es s. Building on such in e es s, schola s pu o wa d p oposals o an A c ic
Mili a y Code o Conduc e en be o e he ull-scale wa in Uk aine.13 In he
mean ime, bila e al ea ies om he Cold Wa e a on c isis communica ion
and he p e en ion o escala ing mili a y inciden s should be eac i a ed.14
A c ic ‘swing geopoli ics’
Russia’s ene gy sec o depends on o eign in es men and echnology ans e ,
bu in he con ex o Russian agg ession agains Uk aine i has been bede illed
by a lack o skilled labou and in as uc u e. Be ween 2014 and 2022, due
o he sanc ions imposed on Russia by he EU, he US and o he s, including
Japan and Sou h Ko ea, Wes e n i ms hea ily in ol ed in Russian ene gy in-
as uc u e we e unde p essu e o depa om Russia. One p ima y aim o
12 James K. Wi he , ‘S alba d: NATO’s A c ic “Achilles’ Heel”’, The RUSI Jou nal, 163 (2018), 28.
13 Duncan Depledge e al., ‘Why we need o alk abou mili a y ac i i y in he A c ic: Towa ds an
A c ic Mili a y Code o Conduc ’, in Rede ining A c ic Secu i y: A c ic Yea book 2019, edi ed by
Lassi Heininen e al. (2019), h ps://a c icyea book.com/a c ic-yea book/2019.
14 Fo a compila ion o such ag eemen s, see: h ps://www.eu opeanleade shipne wo k.o g/
bila e al-mili a y-ag eemen s-be ween-na o-membe -s a es-and- he-so ie -union-on- he-p e-
en ion-o -inciden s/.
The secu i y dilemma
has no come abou as
a esul o Russian
agg ession in Uk aine,
bu i s salience has
inc eased.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
16
FIGURE 4
Indigenous popula ion in he A c ic egions
Map based on: h ps://a chi e.no d egio.se/en/Maps/01-Popula ion-and-demog aphy/Indigenous-popula ion-in- he-A c ic- egions/
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
17
The UNDP’s se en in e ela ed dimensions o human secu i y (economic, ood,
heal h, en i onmen , pe sonal, communi y and poli ical secu i y) ha e now
become in e wined wi h complex o he poli ical, social and cul u al con-
ce ns.39 A c ic communi ies ha e had o deal wi h side e ec s o he ongoing
wa in Uk aine, such as ising in la ion, ene gy supply issues and in e up ed
supply chains. Some o hese p oblems a ose du ing he pandemic, bu hey
ha e been agg a a ed e e since, especially in emo e a eas. Rising cos s, es-
pecially o s aple ood p oduc s and ene gy, pu a s ain on local budge s. The
ac ha goods ha e o be deli e ed by sea o ai makes hem e en mo e cos ly.
A disp opo iona ely high numbe o men om small indigenous communi ies
in he Russian A c ic ha e died in Uk aine.40 This is because Russia has a -
ge ed hese communi ies in i s consc ip ion policy. The likelihood o c i icism
o e en p o es om ep esen a i es o Russian indigenous peoples is small:
he o icial Russian Associa ion o Indigenous Peoples o he No h, Sibe ia and
he Fa Eas (RAIPON) has been co-op ed by he K emlin a leas since 2014 and
suppo s he Russian wa in Uk aine — despi e he de as a ing conseqences
o i s own people.41 In Ma ch 2022, a g oup o p ominen Russian indigenous
ac i is s ounded a new o ganisa ion, he In e na ional Commi ee o Indig-
enous Peoples o Russia (ICIPR). In se e al open le e s, i condemned he ull-
scale wa agains Uk aine and called upon in e na ional o ganisa ions o sus-
pend hei ecogni ion o and coope a ion wi h RAIPON.42 As an o ganisa ion
ac ing om ab oad, i has, howe e , no in luence on de elopmen s in Russia.
Wi h he pa alysis o he A c ic Council since Feb ua y 2022 A c ic indigenous
peoples ha e los hei main pla o m o mul ila e al engagemen in he
egion. Fo he mos pa , he Council had been a o um in which hese six
non-na ion s a e g oups43 (also known as ‘pe manen pa icipan s’) could con-
ibu e o o mula ing and implemen ing A c ic policies. The ongoing poli ical
s alema e in he Council means ha Russia is likely o con inue o coope a e
wi h in e es ed obse e s a es like China and India. I is expec ed o do so,
mo eo e , ou side he ins i u ional amewo k o he A c ic Council. As a e-
sul , A c ic indigeneous communi ies could be a ec ed by enc oachmen s in o
39 Rauna Kuokkanen and Vic o ia Swee , ‘Indigenous secu i y heo y: in e sec ional analysis om
he bo om up’ in: Rou ledge Handbook o A c ic Secu i y, edi ed by Gunhild Hoogensen Gjø ,
Ma c Lan eigne, Ho a io Sam-Agg ey, 80 – 90 (London: Rou ledge, 2020).
40 An i-Disc imina ion Cen e, ‘To he In e na ional Day o he Wo ld’s Indigenous People’, 8
Augus 2023, h ps://adcmemo ial.o g/en/ ideo-en/ o- he-in e na ional-day-o - he-wo lds-
indigenous-people/; Elizabe h Owen, ‘Wa In Uk aine Poses “Te ible Th ea ” o Russia’s Saami
People, bu Solu ions a e Few’, 1 Oc obe 2023, h ps://www. e l.o g/a/ ussia-komi-saami-
indigenous-wa -mining- h ea /32618040.h ml; Wo ldc unch, ‘Indigenous o Russia, The Silen
Vic ims o Pu in’s Wa ’, 7 Feb ua y 2023, h ps://wo ldc unch.com/ ocus/ ussia-indigenous-
people-p oblem.
41 RAIPON, ‘The Associa ion o Indigenous Peoples and Fa Eas e n Regions o he Russian
Fede a ion in Suppo o P esiden Vladimi Pu in’, Associa ion In o ma ion Cen e ,1 Ma ch
2022.h ps:// aipon.in o/p ess- sen /no os i/asso sia siya-kmnss-i-d - - ys upila- -podde -
zhku-p eziden a-nashey-s any- - -pu ina-/.
42 Indigenous Russia, ‘S a emen o he Indigenous Peoples in connec ion wi h he ull-scale mili-
a y agg ession o Russia agains Uk aine’, 18 May 2022, h ps://c cen e .o g/en/ac i i ies/406-
s a emen -o - he-indigenous-peoples-in-connec ion-wi h- he- ull-scale-mili a y-agg ession-o -
ussia-agains -uk aine; Indigenous Russia, ‘Appeal o he Indigenous Peoples o in e na ional
o ganiza ions and missions o s a es a in e na ional o ganiza ions’, 23 May 2022, h ps://
c cen e .o g/en/ac i i ies/407-appeal-o - he-indigenous-peoples- o-in e na ional-o ganiza-
ions-and-missions-o -s a es-a -in e na ional-o ganiza ions.
43 The pe manen pa icipan s o he A c ic Council a e: he Aleu In e na ional Associa ion, he
A c ic A habaskan Council, he Gwich’in Council In e na ional, he Inui Ci cumpola Council,
he Russian Associa ion o Indigenous Peoples o he No h, Sibe ia, and he Fa Eas , and he
Saami Council.
A disp opo iona ely
high numbe o men
om small indigenous
communi ies in he Rus-
sian A c ic ha e died in
Uk aine.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
18
he egion o ex ac esou ces by ac o s no bound by A c ic Council policies.44
Russia upda ed i s na ional A c ic s a egy in Feb ua y 2023, emo ing any e -
e ence o he A c ic Council and ins ead placing g ea e emphasis on bila e al
coope a ion in he a eas o esea ch and comme ce.45
Despi e e e y hing — all majo s a e ac o s in he A c ic, including Russia as
he las and No way as he p esen A c ic Council chai , ha e decla ed ha
‘knowledge cop oduc ion wi h indigenous peoples’ is a p io i y.46 Tha should,
howe e , no obscu e he ac ha indigenous peoples and o he A c ic socie al
g oups s ill s uggle o ha e hei oices hea d a he espec i e na ional le els.
The Sámi peoples in he Eu opean A c ic, o example, ha e epea edly com-
plained ha enewable wind ene gy p ojec s a e o en planned wi hou he
ac i e consul a ion o hose a ec ed. Consequen ly, indigenous popula ions
and o he inhabi an s o he A c ic emain ulne able o ex e nal h ea s and
na ional secu i y conside a ions, be hey Russian o Wes e n, umping hei
in e es s and needs.47
Coope a ion a a c oss oads: The u u e o he
A c ic Council
The A c ic Council eme ged in he pos -Cold Wa e a, in he spi i o Mikhail
Go bache ’s ision o A c ic coope a ion exp essed in his 1987 speech in
Mu mansk. The Council’s so -law, consensus-based app oach wo ked well in
peace ime, bu i has been se e ely challenged since Russia’s ull-scale in a-
sion o Uk aine. The wo king g oups ha e been ende ed dys unc ional by he
b eakdown in communica ions be ween Wes e n and Russian esea che s. On
he ma e ial le el, his hinde s he exchange o da a on hawing pe ma os ,
A c ic biodi e si y, such as mig a ing bi ds, and o he en i onmen al indica-
o s om he Russian e i o y. Sa elli e image y and emo e sensing a e used
as al e na i es, bu hey a e no ideal. On he social le el, ins i u ional and
poli ical coope a ion wi h Russian academics is no longe possible o he same
ex en as be o e he wa despi e esea che - o- esea che collabo a ion being
made possible ‘on pape ’. Es ablished esea che ne wo ks, cul i a ed o e
yea s, ha e al eady been conside ably weakened. In he cu en si ua ion, he
Council’s unc ion as an in e ace be ween science and poli ics is se iously un-
de mined.
To unde s and how he p emises o in e na ional A c ic scien i ic coope a ion
ha e been a ec ed, i is c ucial o unde s and how science is deal wi h in he
A c ic Council. The esea ch conduc ed in he six wo king g oups is in e wined
44 Diand a Ayu La asa i, ‘Russo-Uk ainian Wa and he Indigenous A c ic Popula ion’s Human
Secu i y’, Mode n Diplomacy, 9 June 2023, h ps://mode ndiplomacy.eu/2023/06/09/ usso-
uk ainian-wa -and- he-indigenous-a c ic-popula ions-human-secu i y/.
45 Ka en an Loon, ‘A c ic coope a ion emains a conund um’, Egmon Ins i u e, 16 May 2023,
h ps://www.egmon ins i u e.be/a c ic-coope a ion- emains-a-conund um/.
46 A c ic Council,Russian Chai manship 2021 – 2023. h ps://a c ic-council.o g/abou /p e ious-
chai manships/ ussian-chai manship-2/; No wegian Go e nmen , No way’s Chai ship o he
A c ic Council 2023 – 2025, 28.03.2023, h ps://www. egje ingen.no/en/dokumen e /no ways-
chai ship-o - he-a c ic-council/id2968490.
47 AWI, Ge man A c ic O ice, ‘A k ische Indigene Völke ’, Sep embe 2021, h ps://www.a c ic-
o ice.de/publika ionen/a k ische-indigene- oelke /.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
19
wi h he poli ical p ocesses in he Council, such as he decision-making in he
minis e ial mee ings and mee ings be ween he Senio A c ic O icials. Se -
e al hings incen i ise scien is s o coope a e and c ea e new knowledge in he
Council, including he ansla ion o knowledge be ween science and poli ics,
he main enance o esea che ne wo ks, and he ac ha scien i ic p ac ices
in he Council a e, a leas pa ially, independen .48
Since Feb ua y 2022 deba es on he u u e o he A c ic Council ha e e ol ed
a ound he esilience and use ulness o his ins i u ion; among o he hings
hey ha e add essed he ole o so law, he se e i y o en i onmen al h ea s
in he A c ic, and he alue o in e na ional scien i ic coope a ion. When No -
way ook o e om Russia as Council chai in July 2023, i announced ha he
su i al o he Council was i s main p io i y. Se e al ac o s a e a play he e:
Fi s ly, he inclusion o A c ic indigenous g oups as pe manen pa icipan s in
he Council, despi e lacking decision-making powe , unde sco es he impo -
ance o hei oices in decision-making p ocesses. The po en ial dissolu ion o
he A c ic Council would weaken hei abili y o con ibu e. Secondly, he A c-
ic Council, h ough i s wo king g oups, has played a c ucial ole in gene a ing
knowledge o e he pas h ee decades. This collabo a i e e o has aised
global awa eness o A c ic clima e and en i onmen al issues. I he Council
we e o collapse, hese ne wo ks and he accumula ed knowledge would be
di icul o econs uc . Mo eo e , No way’s epu a ion as an en i onmen al
leade — despi e i s commi men o exploi ing oil and gas — would su e i he
p ima y coope a i e e o on A c ic en i onmen al and clima e ma e s we e
o disin eg a e. The hi d a ionale o A c ic s a es’ commi men o p ese ing
he Council is i s signi icance in add essing sha ed challenges.
Despi e cu en poli ical obs acles, he A c ic’s ongoing clima e and en i on-
men al p oblems equi e in e na ional collabo a ion. And so, despi e he on-
going Russian wa agains Uk aine, a consensus emains among he se en A c-
ic s a es o lea e he doo open o Russia’s ein eg a ion once ha is poli i-
cally and e hically enable. Including all A c ic s a es in he Council is pa o
i s consensus-based na u e, bu poli ical coope a ion wi h Russia is cu en ly
impossible.
Scien i ic and echnical coope a ion a wo king-g oup le el has, howe e ,
slowly esumed wi h Russian scien is s in pa icula issue a eas and speci -
ic p ojec s. New guidelines o he echnicali ies in he wo king g oups ha e
been c ea ed, and one o he main challenges o he cu en No wegian chai -
ship is he balancing o science and policy in he A c ic Council. So a , an
emphasis on ‘ echnical’ and scien i ic wo k appea s o be he a ionale o he
ac i i ies in he wo king g oups and he su i al s a egy o he A c ic Council
as a whole.
48 Se a ima And ee a. ‘Science a S ake — Russia and he A c ic Council’, A c ic Re iew on Law and
Poli ics, Vol 14, (2023) 112 – 131, h ps://doi.o g/10.23865/a c ic. 14.5455.
A consensus emains
among he se en A c ic
s a es o lea e he doo
open o Russia’s
ein eg a ion.
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
20
Conclusion: The ou look o A c ic go e nance
and coope a ion
The Russian in asion o Uk aine has undamen ally changed he landscape
o go e nance and in e na ional coope a ion in he A c ic. While some o i s
e ec s — especially he collapse o pan-A c ic clima e go e nance and en i-
onmen al esea ch — a e al eady clea ly isible, o he de elopmen s, such as
inc eased mili a isa ion, in ensi ied esou ce ex ac ion and a g owing dis e-
ga d o he needs o indigenous popula ions in he ace o geos a egic con-
side a ions, will possibly escala e u he . The esump ion o he ac i i ies o
some A c ic Council wo king g oups is a s a ing poin , bu he A c ic Council
will no be able o unc ion as a o um o high-le el dialogue and coope a ion
on hese p essing issues in he o eseeable u u e. Fo now, coope a ion is e-
duced o singula low-le el issues on he basis o bila e al ag eemen s be ween
coun ies ha sha e a bo de wi h Russia, namely No way, Finland, and he
US. The low le el o ensions in he High No h in he pas was also due o he
unila e al es ain o coun ies like No way o eso o i s na al de e ence
capabili ies.
Wi h ega d o A c ic go e nance, global ins i u ions like he UN Con en ion
on he Law o he Sea, in e na ional unc ional ules like he Pola Code, mul i-
la e al dialogue o ma s on he echnical and ope a i e le el, such as he A c-
ic Coas Gua d Fo um (ACGF, 2015), and legally binding ans egional ag ee-
men s like he Cen al A c ic Fishe ies Ag eemen (CAOFA, 2021) end o be
mo e impac ul a p esen han coope a i e amewo ks like he A c ic Council
when i comes o dealing wi h A c ic p oblems.
Wi hin he na ow bounda ies o no p o iding legi imacy o an agg esso
s a e and a he same ime main aining a baseline o coo dina ion wi h Rus-
sia, his epo has iden i ied some policy op ions o Wes e n go e nmen s.
On a mili a y-s a egic le el, i is clea ha he oo o g owing ensions and
mili a isa ion does no lie in he A c ic egion i sel , bu in an inc eased secu-
i y dilemma in he No h A lan ic, uelled by ising con lic be ween he Wes
and Russia as well as he g ea powe ambi ions o Pu in’s Russia. Wi h an
imp o emen o ela ions highly unlikely, he main aim can only be o mi iga e
he isk o spillo e e ec s, unin ended inciden s and unwan ed escala ion by
main aining exis ing o pu ing in place new eme gency mechanisms o he
p e en ion and de-escala ion o mili a y acciden s and he managemen o in-
c easing mili a y p esence. This could include he c ea ion o an A c ic Mili a y
Code o Conduc 49 o e isi ing bila e al mili a y ag eemen s da ing back o he
Cold Wa . The e i alisa ion o exis ing ins umen s o dealing wi h non a-
di ional h ea s o secu i y is also concei able, o example he ag eemen on
Coope a ion on Ma ine Oil Pollu ion P epa edness and Response (MOSPA) o
2018 and he A c ic Sea ch and Rescue Ag eemen (SAR) o 2011.50
49 Duncan Depledge e al., ‘Why we need o alk abou mili a y ac i i y in he A c ic: Towa ds an
A c ic Mili a y Code o Conduc ’, in Rede ining A c ic Secu i y: A c ic Yea book 2019, edi ed by
Lassi Heininen e al. (2019), h ps://a c icyea book.com/a c ic-yea book/2019.
50 Schalle , Benjamin and Ho a io Sam-Agg ey, ‘NATO, he OSCE, and he A c ic egion: Eu opean
secu i y o ganiza ions and he High No h’, in: Rou ledge Handbook o A c ic Secu i y, edi ed by
Gunhild Hoogensen Gjø , Ma c Lan eigne, Ho a io Sam-Agg ey, 348 – 361 (London: Rou ledge,
2020).
ZOiS Repo 1 / 2024 New A c ic Reali ies — Be ween Con lic ing In e es s and A enues o Coope a ion
21
Wi h ega d o science coope a ion, he A c ic Council as an impo an in e -
ace be ween science and poli ics is cu en ly dys unc ional. Howe e , o he
sake o science, he common good in he egion, and he igh agains clima e
change, echnical and scien i ic coope a ion a wo king-g oup le el is cu -
en ly being esumed and should be main ained as an e hical impe a i e. The
wo king g oups o he A c ic Council play a c ucial ole in de ining ealis ic
p io i ies and indispensable baselines o A c ic clima e and en i onmen al
esea ch despi e he hos ile poli ical con ex . This could hen ac as a s a ing
poin o explo ing a enues o low- h eshold exchanges o da a and esea ch
indings, possibly h ough he media ion o hi d pa ies like he In e go e n-
men al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC) o he In e na ional Council o he
Explo a ion o he Sea (ICES).
In he economic, social, and diploma ic sphe es, he heigh ened ocus on en-
e gy so e eign y in Eu ope and he US could mean ha he needs o he A c ic
indigenous popula ions a e neglec ed e en u he in he ace o ‘geopoli i-
cal impe a i es’. The wa in Uk aine has inc eased he ulne abili y o hose
popula ions. The e ec s o wa - ela ed in la ion, ene gy supply issues and in-
e up ed supply chains as well as a disp opo ionally high ec ui men a e o
young men om he Russian High No h o deploymen in Uk aine has had
disas ous e ec s on indigeneous and o he communi ies in he Russian A c ic
and beyond.
This dynamic also p esen s an oppo uni y o he No wegian chai ship o he
A c ic Council in i s cu en phase o pa alysis. As he indigenous peoples’ mos
es ablished pla o m o mul ila e al coope a ion, i could ac as an ad oca e
o hei igh s, pushing o mo e inclusion on he na ional le el, especially in
he con ex o ( enewable) ene gy de elopmen p ojec s.
Nei he a leade ship change in Russia no an end o i s b u al wa o agg es-
sion in Uk aine appea likely soon, so he cu en dis up ion o A c ic go e n-
ance and coope a ion seems he e o s ay. In o de o deal wi h he mul i ace ed
challenges he A c ic is con on ed wi h oday, a ec ed coun ies and popula-
ions will no only ha e o adop a b oade app oach o secu i y, bu also s ike
an issue-speci ic and ca e ully weigh ed balance be ween limi ed in e ac ions
wi h and poli ical s ead as ness owa ds Russia.
Imp in
Au ho s
Se a ima And ee a,
Klaus Dodds, Nadja Douglas,
Ch is oph Hum ich and
Thomas Naw a h
The epo bene i ed om
hough ul commen s p o ided
by Michael Paul (SWP).
Published by
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Ci a ion
Se a ima And ee a, Klaus
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Naw a h: ‘New A c ic Re-
ali ies — Be ween Con lic ing
In e es s and A enues o Co-
ope a ion’, ZOiS Repo 1/ 2024,
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ISSN 2512-7233
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Anne Boden
G aphics
Ia osla Bo e skii
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Yuko S ie
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