ASSESSING RESOURCE STRESS UNDER IRRIGATION
EXPANSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN ETHIOPIA
Camilla Lo Giudice¹, F ancesco Ga dumi¹, and Daniel Adshead¹
➢AR6 IPCC calls o a p og ess in
adap a ion planning.
➢Rain all a iabili y and clima e
unce ain y a e o ecas ed o
inc ease, leading o e a ic un
o and a ia ion in
e apo anspi a ion.
1. RESEARCH CONTEXT
Figu e 1 – Ag o-ecological clus e ing based
on po en ial yield
Land
P ecipi a ion
Ene gy
G owing
Ha es ing
C op land
➢Low mechanized
➢High mechanized
➢Rain ed
➢I iga ed
E apo anspi a ion
Su ace wa e
G oundwa e
Wa e
•Municipal
•Indus ial
C ops
Resou ces
Seasons
Land sys em Wa e sys em Demand
Clima e
𝑓 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒, 𝑆𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒, 𝐶𝑟𝑜𝑝
Indica o Fo mula
Biodi e si y
habi a
index
BHI = 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑
𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙
𝑧
, z= 0.25
Wa e
seasonal s ess ws = min(1, max(0, 𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟))
Seasonal
sco e 𝑆 = max(0, min 5, ln 𝑤𝑠 −ln 0.1
ln 2+ 1 )
4. KEY FINDINGS
Seasonal wa e s ess sco e
¹ KTH Royal Ins i u e o Technology, S ockholm, Sweden
Biodi e si y habi a index
Camilla Lo Giudice
PhD candida e
Tel: +46 – 721486341
Email: camlg@k h.se
IAMC – 18 h Annual Mee ing
Buzios, No embe 11-13, 2025
2. OBJECTIVE
To assess po en ial
inc ease in esou ce
s ess due o e a ic
p ecipi a ion pa e ns.
3. METHOD
➢Non-linea c op yield esponses
unde clima e change al e
wa e s ess and biodi e si y
pa e ns ac oss space.
➢Inco po a ing seasonal
a iabili y is essen ial o
accu a ely cap u e de ia ions
in wa e ou pu om annual
a e ages
➢Highe spa io- empo al
esolu ion enables iden i ica ion
o whe e and when esou ce
s ess is mos likely o occu .
Figu e 2 – Clima e, Land, Ene gy, and Wa e sys em (CLEWs) amewo k modelled in OSeMOSYS
The au ho s acknowledge unding om he Eu opean Union’s Ho izon
p og am IAM COMPACT g an ag eemen No 101056306, and he he
suppo o he Clima e Compa ible G ow h P og am (CCG) o he UK's
Fo eign De elopmen and Commonweal h O ice (FCDO).
