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REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
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Ins i u e o Re ige a ion
Elias Eid, Alan Fos e MIns R, G aciela Al a ez and Judi h E ans FIns R
Reducing ene gy
consump ion and g eenhouse
gas emissions om he
Eu opean e ail sec o
Winne o he 2022/2023 Ted Pe y Awa d
2 P esen ed be o e he IOR on 15 May 2025
REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
Reducing ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas emissions om
he Eu opean e ail sec o
Why you should a end:
1. To gain insigh s in o how elec ical ca bon g id ends and s a egic ac ions can help Eu opean
supe ma ke s each ne -ze o a ge s by 2050.
2. To unde s and how ea ly adop ion o inno a i e echnologies leads o as e ca bon educ ions and
g ea e long- e m impac .
3. To lea n how clima e change will a ec supe ma ke s ac oss di e en Eu opean loca ions by 2050.
Abs ac
The e ail sec o signi ican ly con ibu es o global g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wi h e ige a ion being
a majo ene gy consume . This s udy in es iga es deca bonisa ion s a egies o Eu opean supe ma ke s
using an Ene gyPlus modelling ac oss six loca ions in F ance, I aly, Li huania, No way, Poland, and he UK. By
inco po a ing p ojec ed clima e da a and elec ical g id ca bon in ensi ies (EGCIs) om 2020 o 2050, he s udy
e alua ed impac on GHG emissions. Resul s show ha elec ici y g id deca bonisa ion ac oss all loca ions had
he bigges e ec on educing emissions. Combining s a egies, such as inc easing s o e deadband empe a u e,
ins alling doo s on chilled cabine s, using ai -sou ce hea pumps (ASHPs), implemen ing 20% lowe ene gy
consump ion cabine s and in eg a ing sola panels, achie ed ca bon sa ings be ween 68.0% o 93.8%. Among
indi idual s a egies, sola panels p o ed mos e ec i e, pa icula ly in high sola exposu e egions. Clima e
change had a small impac on o e all ene gy use. These indings o e insigh s o policymake s and e aile s o
suppo ne -ze o in he Eu opean e ail sec o .
Keywo ds: Re ail, G eenhouse gas emissions, Re ige a ion, Ca bon neu ali y, Ene gyPlus, Sus ainable p ac ices
P esen ed be o e he IOR on 15 May 2025 3
REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
Reducing ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas
emissions om he Eu opean e ail sec o
1. In oduc ion
The e ail sec o is a majo con ibu o o global ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
aising signi ican en i onmen al conce ns. Re ail ope a ions accoun o mo e han 25% o global GHG
emissions [1]. Addi ionally, s udies indica e ha ood and ag icul u e con ibu e o 26–35% o global emissions,
wi h app oxima ely 18–29% a ising om he ood supply chain [2,3]. Re ige a ion plays a signi ican ole in
his oo p in . Repo s indica e ha abou 60% o ood is e ige a ed a some s age in he supply chain, and
pe ishable oods a e esponsible o app oxima ely 70% o GHG emissions wi hin he ood sys em [4].
Global wa ming u he agg a a es hese challenges, wi h ising empe a u es inc easing he demand o
cooling and e ige a ion. The Wo ld Me eo ological O ganisa ion (WMO) has con i med ha 2024 was he
wa mes yea on eco d, based on six in e na ional da ase s. The pas en yea s (2015-2024) ha e all anked
among he en wa mes on eco d, highligh ing an ex ao dina y s eak o eco d-b eaking empe a u es.
Acco ding o he WMO’s consolida ed assessmen , he global a e age su ace empe a u e in 2024 was 1.55 °C
abo e he 1850–1900 baseline, wi h a ma gin o unce ain y o ± 0.13 °C. This likely ma ks he i s ull calenda
yea in which he global mean empe a u e exceeded 1.5 °C abo e p e-indus ial le els [5]. Gi en hese ends,
he e is an u gen need o de elop and implemen be e solu ions in he e ail sec o .
As pa o he Eu opean G een Deal, he ENOUGH p ojec (Eu opean ood chain supply o educe GHG
emissions by 2050) was es ablished o align wi h he EU's Fa m- o-Fo k s a egy. This ini ia i e aims o
ans o m he Eu opean ood sec o in o a mo e sus ainable, esilien , and low-ca bon sys em. A key ocus
o he p ojec is educing emissions in supe ma ke s, one o he mos ene gy-in ensi e ypes o comme cial
buildings. The complexi y o supe ma ke s a ises om he in e ac ion be ween ex e nal clima e condi ions,
e ige a ion sys ems, hea ing, en ila ion and ai -condi ioning (HVAC) sys ems, ligh ing, and in e nal hea
loads om equipmen . These subsys ems in e ac dynamically, wi h hea loads a ying h oughou he yea .
The e o e, unde s anding hese in e ac ions is c ucial o op imising ene gy use and educing emissions.
Se e al esea che s ha e explo ed supe ma ke ene gy modelling and emissions educ ion s a egies
[6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13]. Fo example, he au ho s o his pape de eloped an Ene gyPlus simula ion o a
supe ma ke in Pa is, e alua ing in e en ions such as ins alling doo s on e ige a ed cabine s and using R-744
e ige an while inco po a ing clima e change p ojec ions o 2050 [14]. Howe e , ou ocus was limi ed o
speci ic in e en ions wi hin a single clima e zone. This esea ch aims o expand on his wo k and e alua es he
ene gy and ca bon emission impac s o a medium-sized supe ma ke ac oss six Eu opean coun ies: F ance,
I aly, Li huania, No way, Poland and he UK. By inco po a ing p ojec ed elec ical g id ca bon in ensi y (EGCI)
and clima e da a up o 2050, he s udy assesses he e ec i eness o in eg a ing di e en ene gy and ca bon
sa ing s a egies. The selec ed loca ions ep esen di e se clima ic condi ions, a ious hea ing uel sou ces and
di e en EGCIs, making hem ideal o e alua ing di e en deca bonisa ion pa hways. The indings om his
s udy demons a e he deca bonisa ion po en ial o supe ma ke s h ough o 2050, o e ing c i ical insigh s
o policymake s, e aile s, and indus y s akeholde s and con ibu ing o he b oade goal o achie ing ca bon
neu ali y in he Eu opean e ail sec o .
2. Ma e ials and me hods
The me hodology used o de elop he s udy was composed o h ee s ages: iden i ying and e iewing
s a egies, modelling o supe ma ke s, and highligh ing he deca bonisa ion po en ial o he e ail sec o .
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REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
Reducing ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas emissions om
he Eu opean e ail sec o
2.1. Iden i ica ion o s a egies
As pa o he ENOUGH p ojec , 95 di e en echnologies and s a egies ha e ail s o es could apply o
educe ca bon emissions and ene gy consump ion we e e iewed and anked [15]. Scope 1 and 2 emissions
we e co e ed which encompass emissions om di ec uel use (elec ici y/gas) and emissions om leakage o
e ige an s. Scope 3 emissions we e no included as hese will o igina e om ou side he e aile s’ bounda ies.
The e iews we e used o iden i y he indi idual s a egies ha had he mos po en ial in ood e ail s o es. Only
s a egies wi h a high echnology eadiness le el (TRL 8 o 9) we e conside ed as ca bon emissions op ions ha
we e no on he ma ke we e e y di icul o quan i y and o en had a ied claimed sa ings.
Technologies wi h high TRL, high po en ial sa ings, and ha we e able o be modelled wi h Ene gyPlus we e
hen selec ed o his s udy. This included ins alling doo s on open- on ed cabine s, adjus ing he ambien s o e
empe a u e dead band by 2 K, implemen ing ai -sou ce hea pumps (ASHP), imp o ing e ige a ed cabine s by
20%, and ins alling sola panels on supe ma ke oo ops.
2.2. Ma hema ical modelling
Ma hema ical modelling was hen used o assess impac s om 2020 h ough o 2050 conside ing changes
due o global wa ming and changes in he EGCI as well as he impac o combined s a egies. Ene gyPlus 2022
22.2.0 simula ion engine was used o calcula e he o al ene gy consump ion o he modelled scena ios.
Ske chUp P o 2022 (T imble Inc.) was used o d aw and c ea e he model geome y. OpenS udio 2023 1.5.0 (by
NREL, ANL, LBNL, ORNL, and PNNL) was used as a g aphical use in e ace o add and modi y p ope ies such
as wea he iles, cons uc ion, ma e ials, in e nal loads, schedules, wa e , HVAC, and e ige a ion sys ems. The
en i onmen al impac was cha ac e ised by he o al equi alen wa ming impac (TEWI).
The alida ed baseline supe ma ke model om Eid e al. [14] de eloped using Ene gyPlus and loca ed in Pa is
was hen used o he o he EU loca ions. The geome y o he 2,100 m2 supe ma ke had 5 zones: sales,
o ices, d y s o age, cold s o age, and a machine oom, wi h a eas o 1,085 m2, 111 m2, 267 m2, 526 m2 and 111
m2, espec i ely. The heigh o all zones was 6 m.
Table 1 only shows a subse o he model inpu s o he supe ma ke , and u he inpu s o he baseline model,
along wi h all necessa y in o ma ion, can be ound in Eid e al. [14]. The documen a ion o he U.S. Depa men
o Ene gy highligh s all he equa ions used o calcula e he loads ac oss all modelled scena ios in Ene gyPlus
[16].
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REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
Reducing ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas
emissions om he Eu opean e ail sec o
Table 1. A subse o he model inpu s
Va iables Inpu s Sou ce
HVAC sys em Cooling DX Ra ed
COP
3Ene gyPlus de aul
Hea ing e iciency 1 (elec ic), 0.8 (gas) Assump ion
Fan o al e iciency 0.7 Ene gyPlus de aul
Hea ing he mos a 21°C Day - 19°C Nigh Real s o e da a
Cooling he mos a 24°C Real s o e da a
Re ige a ion
sys em (R-744
boos e )
Comp esso s Bi ze -2GSL-3K-4SU (Low s age) Bi ze -
4FTC-20K (High s age)
Assump ion
E apo a ing T Chilled/F ozen: -5/-30°C [17]
De os 1h/day ( o al)
Chilled: O cycle
F ozen: 1400 W/m
Real s o e da a
An i-swea hea e None o chilled cabine s
100 W/m o ozen cabine s
Real s o e da a
Minimum
condensing T
10°C [18]
T ansi ion T 27°C [18]
Design T gas coole 3 K g ea e han ambien T
( ansc i ical)
10 K g ea e han ambien T
(subc i ical)
[18]
Recei e p essu e 40 ba g [18]
Display cabine s (all
emo e)
Case leng h Chilled/F ozen: 83.75 m/18.7 m Real s o e da a
Case heigh 1.5m Real s o e da a
Ope a ing T Chilled/F ozen: 3°C /-18°C Ene gyPlus de aul
Ra ed cooling
capaci y
Chilled: 1000 W/m (wi hou doo s)
and 500 W/m (wi h doo s)
F ozen: 400 W/m
Assump ion
Fan powe 30 W/m Assump ion
Ligh powe 20 W/m Assump ion
Cold chambe s
Numbe 2 Chille s and 6 F eeze s Real s o e da a
To al a ea Chille s/F eeze s: 43 m2/43 m2Real s o e da a
Ope a ing T Chille s/F eeze s: 3°C/-18°C Real s o e da a
Doo heigh 2 m Real s o e da a
Cooling coil capaci y 4690 W Ene gyPlus de aul
Fan 735 W Ene gyPlus de aul
Ligh 120 W Ene gyPlus de aul
De os 2500 W Ene gyPlus de aul
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REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
Reducing ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas emissions om
he Eu opean e ail sec o
2.3. Loca ions and assump ions o baseline simula ions
I was assumed ha he baseline simula ions ac oss he 6 loca ions: F ance, I aly, Li huania, No way, Poland and
he UK, we e se o he yea 2020. All simula ions used an R-744 boos e sys em and only di e ed in e ms o
hea ing uel sou ce (na u al gas (NG), elec ic esis ance, o ASHP) and wea he iles (speci ic o each ci y). All
o he elemen s emained he same in he simula ions. Simila o he wo k o Eid e al. [14] o F ance and he
UK, Ene gyPlus wea he iles o he o he loca ions we e ob ained om h ps://ene gyplus.ne /wea he . The
selec ed ci ies o his s udy along wi h he uel sou ces used o hea ing, he exac loca ion o he wea he iles
applied, and he a e age ambien empe a u e in each loca ion a e lis ed in Table 2.
Table 2. Di e ences in he baseline condi ions ac oss he 6 loca ions
Hea ing uel sou ce Wea he ile
(ci y)
Ambien empe a u e
(a e age)
F ance Elec ic esis ance Pa is (O ly) 11.1°C
I aly NG Rome 15.8°C
Li huania ASHP Kaunas 6.8°C
No way ASHP Oslo (Fo nebu) 6.6°C
Poland NG Wa saw 8.3°C
UK NG London (Ga wick) 10.2°C
2.4. Clima e change
The Ene gyPlus wea he iles o he 6 loca ions we e shi ed o he pe iod 2041-2060 pe iod ( e med 2050),
conside ing his o ical clima e change (h ps://wea he shi .com/). The me hodology o his p ocess is de ailed
in Dickinson and B annon [19]. The 2050 wea he iles employed ep esen a i e concen a ion pa hways (RCP)
4.5. Acco ding o he In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC), RCP 4.5 highligh s mode a e emissions
peaking a ound 2040 and hen dec easing. The objec i e was o examine how clima e change a ec s he
ene gy demand o he baseline supe ma ke s in he di e en loca ions. Figu e 1 illus a es he mon hly a e age
ambien empe a u es o 2050 unde RCP 4.5 scena io ac oss he 6 loca ions.
Figu e 1. Mon hly a e age ambien empe a u es o 2050 unde RCP 4.5 scena io ac oss he 6 loca ions
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REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
Reducing ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas
emissions om he Eu opean e ail sec o
2.5. Elec ical g id deca bonisa ion
The s udy analysed he impac o he u u e EGCI be ween 2020 and 2050 o he 6 loca ions (whe e
applicable). This was done o de e mine and demons a e he deca bonisa ion po en ial o he baseline
scena io (wi h no in e en ions) and he combined model whe e all he ca bon-sa ing s a egies we e
implemen ed oge he .
Figu e 2 p esen s (whe e a ailable) he changes o he EGCI in he 6 loca ions. In o ma ion on u u e EGCI was
only a ailable o 4 o he coun ies modelled (F ance, Li huania, Poland ( o 2040 only) and he UK). The e o e,
o Poland, ex apola ion was pe o med using h ee poin s (2030, 2035, and 2040), as Poland expe ienced
apid deca bonisa ion be ween 2020 and 2030, ollowed by a slowe deca bonisa ion end om 2030 o 2040.
A quad a ic polynomial cu e (deg ee 2) was i ed o hese poin s, and he ex apola ed sec ion is ep esen ed
as a dashed line on he Poland cu e. No in o ma ion on u u e EGCIs was a ailable o I aly and No way.
Howe e , No way al eady has he lowes EGCI among he six coun ies conside ed. Addi ionally, I aly has seen
a decline in EGCI o e he pas 20 yea s, and i his end con inues, I alian supe ma ke s will likely become
much lowe ca bon emi e s by 2050 [20]. The EGCI o F ance was aken om S a is a [21], o Li huania om
Li huanian expe s ha calcula ed hese based on o icial igu es, o Poland om S a is a [22], and o he
UK om he UK BEIS [23]. The 2020 EGCIs o I aly and No way we e aken om EEA [24] and Equino [25],
espec i ely.
Figu e 2. EGCI o he 6 loca ions s udied
2.6 TEWI
The TEWI cha ac e ises CO2e emissions and is a use ul ool o s udy he impac o sys ems on global wa ming.
The TEWI combines he di ec and indi ec emissions o CO2e. TEWI is based on he ollowing ela ion:
TEWI=(GWP×m×L)+(E_gas×β_gas)+(E_elec ic×EGCI) Eq. (1)
Whe e TEWI is he mass o CO2e p oduced du ing a yea (kg); GWP is he global wa ming po en ial o he
e ige an (GWP�-744 = 1); m is he e ige an cha ge o he s o e (kg), which was 380 kg [15]; L is he e ige an
leakage pe cen age pe yea (%/yea ), which was 10%; Egas is he NG ene gy consump ion pe yea o he s o e
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(kWh/yea ); βgas is he CO2e emission ac o o he combus ion o NG (kgCO2e/kWh) which was 0.18 kgCO2e/
kWh [26]. Eelec ic is he elec ical ene gy consump ion pe yea o he s o e (kWh/yea ); EGCI is he CO2e
emissions pe kWh o elec ical ene gy p oduced (kgCO2e/kWh). (GWP x m x L) and (Egas x βgas) ep esen di ec
CO2e emissions om e ige an leakage and NG combus ion, espec i ely; (Eelec ic x EGCI) a e indi ec emissions
o CO2e associa ed wi h elec ical ene gy consump ion.
2.7. Modelling s a egies
Based on he echnological e iews, he selec ed s a egies applied o he 6 loca ions in his s udy we e:
1. S a egy 1: Inc ease he dead band empe a u e o he HVAC by 2 K, by inc easing cooling and dec easing
hea ing se poin s by 1 K.
2. S a egy 2: Doo s we e added o he open on ed chilled cabine s.
3. S a egy 3: Change hea ing om gas o elec ic esis ance o ASHP ( o ele an scena ios) wi h a nominal
coe icien o pe o mance (COP) o 2.75.
4. S a egy 4: Re ige a ed cabine s wi h 20% lowe ene gy consump ion (comp esso , e apo a o and
condense ans, de os and an i-swea hea e , and case ligh ing) we e applied o chille s and eeze s.
5. S a egy 5: Sola pho o ol aic (PV) panels we e ins alled on he supe ma ke ’s oo . The elec ici y
gene a ed was calcula ed using he RETSc een 9.0 so wa e ool. RETSc een uses published local da a
o daily sola adia ion on a ho izon al su ace in kWh/m2/day o each mon h. The mon hly ou pu was
calcula ed based on he ixed o ien a ion o he PV panels, which we e posi ioned a a 15° angle o he
ho izon al, hei 6 di e en loca ions, and an assumed e iciency o 15%. The a ailable ene gy om he
sola panels was emo ed om he annual ene gy consumed by he s o e. I was he e o e assumed ha
all sola ene gy gene a ed could be used by he s o e (immedia ely o h ough ene gy s o age).
6. Combined model: All he s a egies abo e we e combined in a single model o unde s and hei po en ial
impac on o e all ene gy use and ca bon emissions.
3. Resul s and discussion
3.1. Impac o clima e change on he baseline supe ma ke s
This sec ion shows he impac o clima e change and he EGCI on he supe ma ke in he 6 loca ions.
Figu e 3 show he impac o clima ic empe a u e change on ene gy consump ion o he 6 loca ions in 2020
and 2050. The g aph p esen s in o ma ion di ided in o hea ing, cooling (HVAC), ligh ing, in e io equipmen ,
ans, pumps, wa e sys ems and e ige a ion. I is wo h no ing ha space cooling was negligible because he
supe ma ke had open- on ed chilled cabine s. As a esul , he cold ai om he cabine s na u ally cooled he
aisles, signi ican ly educing he need o cooling. Modelling showed ha clima e change had bo h posi i e
and nega i e e ec s on ene gy use, depending on he loca ion. I inc eased ene gy consump ion in F ance,
Poland and he UK bu dec eased i in I aly, Li huania and No way. Howe e , despi e hese a ia ions, he
o e all di e ences in ene gy consump ion be ween 2020 and 2050 we e small (less han 2%). The low impac
o inc easing clima ic empe a u e was due o a balance be ween he hea ing and cooling demands on he
supe ma ke s. As clima ic empe a u es inc eased, he e was less ene gy demand o hea ing, bu his was
balanced by he inc eased ene gy demand o cooling and e ige a ion.
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REFRIGERATION AIR CONDITIONING HEAT PUMPS
Reducing ene gy consump ion and g eenhouse gas
emissions om he Eu opean e ail sec o
Figu e 3. Impac o clima ic empe a u e change on annual ene gy consump ion o he supe ma ke be ween 2020 and
2050 in he 6 loca ions.
3.2. Impac o u u e EGCI changes on he baseline supe ma ke s
Figu e 4 p esen s he o al annual ca bon emissions o he s o es in each coun y. O e ime, he EGCI is
p edic ed o dec ease conside ably (as seen in Figu e 2) and his had a majo impac on he emissions om he
s o es. The s o e in Poland had he highes ca bon emissions based on da a up o 2050, eaching 126.1 CO2e/
yea , hough he end sugges s a con inued decline beyond his pe iod. In London, despi e he EGCI d opping
o nea ly ze o (0.003 kgCO2e/kWh) by 2050, he ca bon emissions emained a 41.5 CO2e/yea as he s o e
was s ill hea ed by NG. In Pa is, whe e elec ic esis ance hea ing was used, emissions eached 17 CO2e/yea
by 2050 due o he EGCI o 0.023 kgCO2e/kWh. In Li huania, whe e hea ing was supplied by an ASHP, o al
emissions ell o nea ly ze o (2.7 CO2e/yea ) by 2050 due o he nea ly ze o EGCI (0.004 kgCO2e/kWh). Al hough
u u e EGCIs o bo h No way and I aly we e una ailable, emissions in No way we e al eady low in 2020 a 5.3
CO2e/yea and a e expec ed o be nea ze o by 2050, as an inc ease in he 2020 EGCI is unlikely, while I aly
eco ded 152.1 CO2e/yea in 2020.
Figu e 4. Impac o u u e EGCI changes on o al ca bon emi ed by he supe ma ke in he 6 loca ions.
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16. U.S. Depa men o Ene gy, 2024. Ene gyPlus Ve sion 24.1.0 Documen a ion. Enginee ing e e ence. A ailable online:
h ps://ene gyplus.ne /asse s/n el_cus om/pd s/pd s_ 24.1.0/Enginee ingRe e ence.pd
17. Eme son, 2021. CO2 P oduc Guide 2021 o Re ige a ion Applica ions. A ailable online: h ps://www.copeland.com/
documen s/co2-p oduc -guide-2021- o - e ige a ion-applica ions-en-gb-4217772.pd
18. Sha ma, V., F icke, B., Bansal, P., 2014. Compa a i e analysis o a ious CO2 con igu a ions in supe ma ke
e ige a ion sys ems. In e na ional jou nal o Re ige a ion, 46, 86-99.
19. Dickinson, R. and B annon, B., 2016. Gene a ing u u e wea he iles o esilience. In P oceedings o he in e na ional
con e ence on passi e and low ene gy a chi ec u e, Los Angeles, CA, USA (pp. 11-13).
20. S a is a, 2024. Ca bon in ensi y o he powe sec o in I aly om 2000 o 2023. A ailable online: h ps://www.s a is a.
com/s a is ics/1290244/ca bon-in ensi y-powe -sec o -i aly/
21. S a is a, 2020a. Ca bon in ensi y ou look o he powe sec o in F ance om 2020 o 2050. Sou ced by Au o a Ene gy
Resea ch. A ailable online: h ps://www.s a is a.com/s a is ics/1190067/ca bon-in ensi y-ou look-o - ance/
22. S a is a, 2020b. Ca bon in ensi y ou look o he powe sec o in Poland om 2020 o 2040. Sou ced by Au o a Ene gy
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