Bingham Research Center: 2025 Technical Report

(435) 722-1700 320 No h Aggie Bl d Ve nal, UT 84078 bingham esea ch.usu.edu basinwx.com
BINGHAM RESEARCH CENTER
2025 TECHNICAL REPORT
Se h Lyman, PhD
Colleen Jones, PhD
John R. Lawson, PhD
Pamela Ga dne , PhD
T e o O’Neil
Lokna h Dha
Lisa Boyd
Jus in All ed
Ka Lee Zage
Shalyn D ake
Michael Da ies
Bingham Resea ch Cen e
U ah S a e Uni e si y
320 N Aggie Bl d
Ve nal, UT 84078
DOCUMENT NUMBER: BRC_251112A
REVISION: ORIGINAL RELEASE
DATE: 21 NOVEMBER 2025
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Acknowledgmen s
One o he main pu poses o his documen is o epo on ac i i ies we ha e ca ied ou wi h inancial
suppo om he U ah Legisla u e and Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1. We a e g a e ul o hese wo
en i ies o hei ongoing suppo o ou Uin a Basin ai quali y wo k. We ha e also ecei ed unding o
ou wo k om many o he en i ies. In pa icula , we acknowledge Ma c and Debbie Bingham, he
namesakes o he Bingham Resea ch Cen e , who p o ided ini ial unds o es ablish he Cen e and i s
acili ies. We adminis e an endowmen om Anada ko Pe oleum Co po a ion ha p o ides
oppo uni ies o s uden s o esea ch ai quali y in he Uin a Basin alongside ull- ime esea ch
scien is s. S uden ecipien s o hose unds, as well as o he s uden s unded sepa a ely, we e in ol ed
in he wo k p esen ed he e. Si e access, elec ici y, and/o equipmen a some o ou moni o ing
s a ions we e p o ided by he U ah Di ision o Ai Quali y, Scou Ene gy Pa ne s, Koda Resou ces, and
he Bu eau o Land Managemen . Many ene gy companies ha e p o ided da a and access o oil and gas
acili ies o ou wo k. All unding sou ces a e lis ed in he sec ion en i led Pe o mance Repo , and
unding sou ces o pa icula p ojec s a e acknowledged in he app op ia e sec ions o his documen .
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Table o Con en s
1. In oduc ion ............................................................................................................................. 4
2. Repo o 2025 Pe o mance ................................................................................................... 6
3. Win e 2024-25 Ai Quali y and Me eo ology ...................................................................... 20
4. Summe ime Ai Quali y ........................................................................................................ 38
5. Uin a Basin Ai Quali y T ends ............................................................................................... 40
6. Ozone Ale P og am ............................................................................................................. 53
7. Cly a : Win e ime Ozone Fo ecas ing Sys em ..................................................................... 54
8. BasinWx: A New Websi e o Ai -Quali y and Wea he ........................................................ 61
9. Uin a Basin Snow Shadow: Impac o Snow-Dep h Va ia ion on Win e Ozone Fo ma ion 66
10. Unde s anding he Role o O ganic Compounds in Win e Ozone Fo ma ion ..................... 71
11. In es iga ion o O ganic Compound Fluxes a he Ai -Snow In e ace ................................. 74
12. D one-based Measu emen o Emissions om Oil and Gas Sou ces .................................... 79
13. Sa elli e-based Remo e Sensing and In e ac i e Modeling o Emissions ............................. 83
14. Public Lands Ini ia i e – Cos -Bene i Analysis o Ca ail Con ol a S ewa Lake ............... 85
15. Public Lands Ini ia i e – P ecision Sp ay D one o In asi e Plan Species a S ewa Lake. 88
16. Pos -wild i e Vege a ion and Soil S abili y Moni o ing Assessmen ..................................... 92
17. S ochas ic Popula ion Model o Pens emon lowe sii ......................................................... 94
18. Ve i ica ion o A mosphe ic Me cu y Redox Ra es ............................................................... 96
19. Re e ences ............................................................................................................................. 98
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1. In oduc ion
1.1. Mission o he Bingham Resea ch Cen e
The Bingham Resea ch Cen e is a us ed leade in inno a i e esea ch ha ad ances science o se e
ou communi y h ough collabo a ion, educa ion, and engagemen .
1.2. Pu pose o his Repo
This epo de ails he ac i i ies unde aken by he Bingham Resea ch Cen e o e he pas wel e
mon hs. The epo ocuses on win e ozone esea ch, as his is a co e esea ch a ea o he Cen e , and
i se es as an annual epo o he U ah Legisla u e and Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1, he p ima y
unde s o he Cen e ’s win e ozone esea ch. The epo also con ains in o ma ion abou o he
p ojec s unded by o he en i ies, he Cen e ’s goals, and pe o mance. This and pas epo s a e
a ailable a h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/pape s-and- epo s.The Cen e ’s Managemen Plan
is a ailable a h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/ iles/UBAQR_managemen _plan.docx.
1.3. Backg ound In o ma ion abou Win e ime Ozone
Ozone nega i ely impac s espi a o y heal h, especially o hose wi h lung diseases. Du ing win e ime
empe a u e in e sion episodes, ozone in he Uin a Basin some imes inc eases o le els ha exceed he
s anda d o 70 ppb se by he U.S. En i onmen al P o ec ion Agency (EPA). Because o his, po ions o
Uin ah and Duchesne coun ies ha e been designa ed as ede al ozone nona ainmen a eas.
The Uin a Basin is one o only wo places in No h Ame ica known o ou inely expe ience win e ime
ozone exceeding EPA s anda ds (Wyoming’s Uppe G een Ri e Basin is he o he ). Ozone o ms in he
a mosphe e om eac ions in ol ing oxides o ni ogen (NOX) and o ganic compounds, and he majo i y
o NOX and o ganic compound emissions in he Uin a Basin a e om oil and gas de elopmen . In e sion
condi ions ap hese pollu an s nea g ound le el, concen a ing hem and allowing hem o gene a e
ozone. The unique mix o pollu an s du ing in e sion episodes in he Uin a Basin leads o he o ma ion
o win e ime ozone, in con as o he ine pa icula e ma e (PM2.5) pollu ion ha is p e alen du ing
win e s on U ah’s Wasa ch F on .
The numbe o ozone exceedance days and concen a ions o ozone ha occu each yea a e closely ied
o me eo ology, hough changes in emissions o o ganic compounds and NOX also impac ozone
le els. Yea s wi h pe sis en snow co e and high ba ome ic p essu e end o ha e mo e days wi h
s ong win e in e sions and high ozone. In he absence o snow co e and win e in e sions, ozone
concen a ions in he Basin a e simila o hose in o he u al, high-ele a ion loca ions a ound he
wes e n Uni ed S a es.
Because win e ime ozone is ela i ely new o science, some aspec s o he me eo ology, chemis y, and
emissions ha allow ozone o o m du ing win e a e s ill poo ly unde s ood. Fede al and s a e agencies
a e equi ed by law o p omulga e egula ions ha educe ozone- o ming emissions in he Uin a
Basin. These egula ions will mos ly a ge he local oil and gas indus y, which con ibu es hea ily o
he Basin’s economy. Scien i ic esea ch o be e elucida e he causes and cha ac e is ics o win e
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ozone can help indus y and egula o s c a emissions educ ions ha maximize e ec i eness and
minimize cos s o he local indus y and economy. Since 2010, we (scien is s a he Bingham Resea ch
Cen e ) ha e conduc ed esea ch o imp o e he unde s anding o win e ozone in he Uin a Basin.
A cumula i e summa y o all signi ican esea ch indings ha ela e o Uin a Basin ai quali y om 2010
h ough he p esen is a ailable he e: h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/cumula i e- esea ch-
summa y.

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2. Repo o 2025 Pe o mance
Au ho : Se h Lyman
This sec ion p o ides in o ma ion abou ou pe o mance o 2025, including esea ch ou pu s and
achie emen o goals and objec i es as ou lined in ou managemen plan. Ou managemen plan is
a ailable a h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/ iles/UBAQR_managemen _plan.docx.
2.1. Resea ch Ou pu
We epo ou esea ch in p esen a ions and academic publica ions, which make ou indings a ailable
o o he esea che s, s akeholde s, and he public. Lis ed below a e ou publica ions and p esen a ions
om No embe 2024 h ough Oc obe 2025. No all a e ela ed o Uin a Basin Ai Quali y. All ou pee -
e iewed publica ions and signi ican echnical epo s a e a ailable on ou websi e a :
h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/pape s-and- epo s.
In he ollowing lis s, s uden au ho s a e shown in bold.
2.1.1. Pee - e iewed Publica ions
1. Lawson J.R., T ujillo-Falcón J.E., Schul z D.M., Flo a M.L., Goebbe K.H., Lyman S.N., Po in C.K.,
and S epanek A.J., 2025. Pixels and p edic ions: po en ial o GPT-4V in me eo ological image y
analysis and o ecas communica ion. A i icial In elligence o he Ea h Sys ems, 4, 240029.
2. Mans ield M.L. and Lyman S.N., 2025. Seasonal ends in he win e ime pho ochemical egime
o he Uin a Basin, U ah, USA. A mosphe ic Chemis y and Physics, 25, 11261-11274.
3. Da ies M.J., Lawson J.R., O’Neil T., Lyman S.N., Zage K., and Coxson T.D., 2025. Uin a Basin
Snow Shadow: Impac o Snow-Dep h Va ia ion on Win e Ozone Fo ma ion. Ai , 3, 22.
4. Jones C., O’Neil T., and Lyman S., 2025. Measu emen s o o ganic compound emissions om a
p oduced wa e disposal aul . Jou nal o he Ai & Was e Managemen Associa ion, 75, 334-
347.
5. Lown L., Dunham-Chea ham S.M., Mu ay P., Lyman S.N., Ca lson K.L., and Gus in M.S., 2025.
Feasibili y o Me al Oxide Glasses and Polyme Memb anes as So ben s o Gaseous Oxidized
Me cu y. ACS Omega. h ps://doi.o g/10.1021/acsomega.5c05401.
6. Weiss-Penzias P.S., Lyman S.N., Elgia T., G a z L.E., Luke W.T., Que edo G., Choma N., and
Gus in M.S., 2025. The e ec o p ecipi a ion on gaseous oxidized and elemen al me cu y
concen a ions as quan i ied by wo ypes o a mosphe ic me cu y measu emen sys ems.
En i onmen al Science: A mosphe es, 5, 204-219.
7. Lown L., Dunham-Chea ham S.M., Lyman S.N., and Gus in M.S., 2024. Al e na e ma e ials o
he cap u e and quan i ica ion o gaseous oxidized me cu y in he a mosphe e. A mosphe ic
Measu emen Techniques Discussions, 2024, pp.1-23.
8. Flowe day C.E., S anley R.S., Lawson J.R., Snow G.L., B ews e K., Goa es S.R., Pax on W.F., and
Hansen J.C., 2025. A en-yea his o ical analysis o u ban PM10 and exceedance il e s along he
No he n Wasa ch F on , UT, USA. Science o he To al En i onmen , 959, 178202.
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2.1.2. Books, Repo s, and P ep in s
1. Lawson, J. R., 2025: A P obabilis ic WxChallenge P oposal. a Xi [s a .AP],
h ps://doi.o g/10.48550/a Xi .2501.14139.
2. Lawson, J. R., 2024: Communica ing isk wi h possibili y, no p obabili y. a Xi [s a .AP],
h ps://doi.o g/10.48550/a Xi .2410.21664.
3. Eme y C., T an H., T an T., Lyman S., and Ya wood G., 2023, May. Compa ing he Chemical
Mechanisms CB6 5 and RACM2s21 o a Win e Ozone Episode in U ah. In In e na ional
Technical Mee ing on Ai Pollu ion Modelling and i s Applica ion (pp. 137-145). Cham: Sp inge
Na u e Swi ze land
4. Lyman S., Jones C., Lawson L., O’Neil T., Ga dne P. (ed), 2024. 2024 Annual Repo : Bingham
Resea ch Cen e . U ah S a e Uni e si y, Ve nal, U ah.
h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/ iles/ epo s/2024AnnualRepo .pd
5. Elgia T.R., Dha L., G a z L., Halla A.G., Volkame R., and Lyman, S.N., 2025. Unde es ima ion o
a mosphe ic oxidized me cu y a a moun ain op si e by he GEOS-Chem chemical anspo
model. EGUsphe e, 2025, h ps://egusphe e.cope nicus.o g/p ep in s/2025/egusphe e-2025-
977/.
2.1.3. P esen a ions
1. All ed J., Ca don G., Jones C., No embe 2024. Wild i e Impac s on E odibili y and Soil E osion
Modeling. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Mee ing, San An onio, Texas.
2. Lyman S.N, No embe 2024, Ma ch 2025, and Augus 2025. Uin a Basin Ozone Wo king G oup
upda e. U ah Di ision o Oil, Gas and Mining Collabo a i e Mee ing, Duchesne, U ah.
3. Da ies M.J., Lawson J.R., Janua y 2025. Snow Shadows, Da a Spa si y, and AI Fo ecas s o
Win e Ozone. 105 h Annual Ame ican Me eo ological Socie y Mee ing, New O leans, Louisiana.
4. Lawson J.R., Janua y 2025. Communica ing Haza d Risk as Possibili y, no P obabili y. 105 h
Annual Ame ican Me eo ological Socie y Mee ing, New O leans, Louisiana.
5. Lawson J.R., Da ies M.J., Lyman S.N., Janua y 2025. P edic ing Win e Ozone wi h Low-
Complexi y AI. 105 h Annual Ame ican Me eo ological Socie y Mee ing, New O leans, Louisiana.
6. Zage K., Lyman S.N., O’Neil T., Holmes B., Holmes M., Coxson T., Ma ch 2025. E ec s o snow
ype, sunligh , and empe a u e on luxes in o ganic ai emissions and snow abso p ion. Ai
Quali y: Science o Solu ions, Logan, U ah.
7. Lawson J.R., Ma ch 2025. Cly a : an uno hodox solu ion o un eliable Uin a Basin ozone
o ecas s. Ai Quali y: Science o Solu ions, 9 h Annual Con e ence, Logan, U ah.
8. Dha L., Lyman S.N., Ma ch 2025. In es iga ing he ole o ca bonyl compounds in win e ozone
o ma ion in U ah’s Uin a Basin using box model simula ions. Ai Quali y: Science o Solu ions,
Logan, U ah.
9. Coxson T., Lyman S.N., Ma ch 2025. Me hane emissions in he Uin a Basin: How do oil and gas
p oduc ion a ec me hane emissions? Ai Quali y: Science o Solu ions, Logan, U ah.
10. Da ies M., Lawson J.R., Ma ch 2025. sensi i i y o ozone o ma ion o snow all a ia ions in he
Uin a Basin, U ah. Ai Quali y: Science o Solu ions, Logan, U ah.
11. O’Neil T., Lyman S., Jones C., Ma ch 2025. Building ins umen a ion o a mosphe ic me cu y. Ai
Quali y: Science o Solu ions, Logan, U ah.
12. Coley J., Haskins J., Lyman S., Jones C., Hansen J., Thalman R., Ma ch 2025. Ve i ica ion o
A mosphe ic Me cu y Redox Ra es. Ai Quali y: Science o Solu ions, Logan, U ah.
8
13. Boyd L., Jones C. P., Ma ch 2025. A Cos -bene i Analysis o Ca ail (Typha spp.) T ea men s a
S ewa Lake in Jensen, U ah. USU Sp ing Resea ch Con e ence, Logan, U ah.
14. Lawson J.R., Mon ague E.C., Da ies M.J., Lyman S.N., O’Neil T., Ma ch 2025. Upda es o he USU
UBAIR websi e: communica ing o ecas isk o ele a ed ozone. Ai Quali y: Science o
Solu ions, Logan, U ah.
15. All ed J., Ca don G., Jones C., Ma ch 2025. Wild i e Impac s on E odibili y and Soil E osion
Modeling. CAAS G adua e Resea ch Day, U ah S a e Uni e si y, Logan, U ah.
16. Da ies M.J., Lawson J.R., Ap il 2025. Sensi i i y o Ozone Fo ma ion o Snow all Va ia ions in he
Uin a Basin, U ah. U ah S a e Uni e si y S a ewide S uden Resea ch Symposium, Ve nal, U ah.
17. Zage K., Da ies M.J., Ap il 2025. Clea ing he Ai : E alua ing he Impac o EPA Mobile Emission
S anda ds on Ca bon Monoxide Le els Ac oss he Uni ed S a es. U ah S a e Uni e si y S a ewide
S uden Resea ch Symposium, Ve nal, U ah.
18. All ed J., Ca don G., Jones C., Ap il 2025. Wild i e Impac s on E odibili y and Soil E osion
Modeling. Plan , Soil, and Clima e Annual S uden Showcase. Logan, U ah.
19. Lyman S.N., May 2025. S akeholde -engaged Ai Quali y Resea ch in he Uin a Basin. The U ah
Con e ence on Communi y Engagemen , P ice, U ah.
20. Lyman S.N., Coxson T., June 2025. T ends in Uin a Basin-wide me hane emissions. Uin a Basin
Ozone Wo king G oup, Ve nal, U ah.
21. Lawson J., July 2025. A i icial In elligence in he Uin a Basin. Ve nal A ea Chambe o
Comme ce, Ve nal, U ah.
22. All ed J. e al., Augus 2025. QANR G adua e S uden O ien a ion Panel. College o Ag icul u e
and Na u al Resou ces O ien a ion, Logan, U ah.
23. Lyman S.N., Colclasu e, C., Vance S., Liang J., Na chees M., Sep embe 2025. Ai quali y panel a
he Uin ah Basin Ene gy Summi , Ve nal, U ah.
24. Jones C.P., D ake S., Sep embe 2025. D ones in Ag Wo kshop – S ewa Lake S a e Wa e owl
Managemen A ea. Jensen, U ah.
25. Lyman S.N., Sep embe 2025. In i ed Panelis o he T adi ional Ene gy Landscape session o
he 2025 U ah Ene gy Week Mee ing, Sal Lake Ci y, U ah.
26. Jones C.P., Sep embe 2025. In i ed Panelis o he Geo he mal Ene gy session o he 2025
U ah Ene gy Week Mee ing, Sal Lake Ci y, U ah.
27. Jones C.P., D ake S., Oc obe 2025. D ones in Resea ch and ligh simula ion. STEAM Expo, USU-
Uin ah Basin, Roose el , U ah.
2.2. Media Appea ances
The ollowing a e news a icles om he epo ing pe iod ha men ion ou wo k. A comple e lis o
media men ions o ou esea ch is a ailable a :
h ps://usu.box.com/s/5s0bus 524npd935mq ecsn hn4cep52.
1. 2025. A change in EPA leade ship migh le Uin a Basin pollu e s o he hook. U ah Public Radio.
2. 2025. Despi e ozone educ ions, Uin a Basin ai pollu e s s ill ha e wo k o do. U ah Public
Radio.
3. 2025. Can Colo ado Recycle Toxic Wa e om Oil and Gas D illing Wi hou Inc easing Emissions?
Inside Clima e News.
4. 2025. USU He ba ium houses Uin ah Basin’s unique lo a. USU Today.
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5. 2025. USU Resea che Se h Lyman Named o U ah Ai Quali y Boa d. USU Today,
BasinNow.com.
6. 2025. S a ewide Campuses S uden s P esen Resea ch in Synch onized Symposium. USU Today.
7. 2024. Ozone Ale P og am Unde way Fo The Season; New Websi e To Replace UBAIR.
BasinNow.com
8. 2024. USU's Science Unw apped Asks 'AI Is Inno a i e, bu Can We T us I ?' F iday, No . 15.
USU Today.
2.3. Funding
2.3.1. P e ious Twel e Mon hs
The Bingham Resea ch Cen e ecei ed $484,092 in g an s and con ac s, $47,000 in gi s, $400,000 in
app op ia ions om he U ah Legisla u e, and $27,238 in endowmen disbu semen s in he pas 12
mon hs, o a o al o $958,330 (Table 2-1). Fu he , wo g an s om he U.S. Depa men o Ene gy a e
app o ed and pending unding. I hese a e unded, hey will o al an addi ional $1,181,039. The Uin ah
Special Se ice Dis ic p o ides $250,000 annually o suppo he ai quali y wo k o he Bingham
Resea ch Cen e .
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• Luke Neilson is a senio a Uin ah High School. He s a ed wo king wi h us in ea ly 2025 on da a
analysis and coding p ojec s.
2.4.1. All S uden s and Pos doc o al Resea che s
The ollowing s uden s and pos doc o al esea che s ha e wo ked a he Bingham Resea ch Cen e .
Da es shown ep esen he i s yea o wo k a he Cen e .
1. Emily Smi h, unde g adua e, 2012
2. Chad Mangum, unde g adua e, 2013
3. Ca hy C aw o d, unde g adua e, 2013
4. Jo dan E ans, unde g adua e, 2013
5. T e o O’Neil, unde g adua e, 2013
6. T ang T an, pos doc o al esea che , 2013
7. Huy T an, pos doc o al esea che , 2014
8. Colleen Jones, pos doc o al esea che , 2015
9. Cody Wa kins, mas e ’s s uden , 2014
10. Ta e Sho hill, unde g adua e, 2014
11. Tanne Allen, unde g adua e, 2014
12. Lena Mo gan, unde g adua e, 2015
13. Feli o Ma inez, unde g adua e, 2015
14. She ee Meye , g adua e, 2015
15. E ic Hacking, unde g adua e, 2016
16. Sand a Young, unde g adua e, 2017
17. Jus in All ed, unde g adua e and g adua e, 2017
18. Makenzie Holmes, unde g adua e, 2018
19. Tyle Elgia , unde g adua e and g adua e, 2018
20. K ys al Whi e, unde g adua e, 2019
21. B an Holmes, unde g adua e, 2020
22. Kei a Tolbe , unde g adua e, 2021
23. Jackson Liesik, unde g adua e, 2021
24. Da is Smuin, unde g adua e, 2021
25. Lisa Boyd, g adua e, 2022
26. K is in Mille , unde g adua e, 2023
27. Rachel Me ell, unde g adua e, 2023

17
28. Lokna h Dha , g adua e, 2023
29. Ka Lee Zage , unde g adua e, 2023
30. Sam Dupaix, unde g adua e, 2024
31. Michael Da ies, unde g adua e, 2024
32. Elspe h Mon ague, high school, 2024
33. T is an Coxson, high school, 2024
34. Amb ia Miglio i, unde g adua e, 2024
35. Myka Hansen, high school, 2025
36. Luke Neilson, high school, 2025
2.5. Da a Managemen and Dissemina ion
2.5.1. Da a Managemen
As desc ibed in ou managemen plan, all measu emen da a and no es gene a ed du ing he epo ing
pe iod a e s o ed on a cloud-based da a s o age se e , wi h egula backups o local, emo able ha d
d i es. We s o ed all ins umen main enance, calib a ion, and epai in o ma ion wi hin his a chi al
s uc u e. We used es ablished s anda d ope a ing p ocedu es o ou wo k. These a e publicly
a ailable a h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/ eam_pages/s anda d-ope a ing-p ocedu es.
2.5.2. Da a Dissemina ion
We ha e uploaded he win e ozone da ase o he mos ecen win e and an upda ed ai chemis y
and me eo ology da ase o he Roose el , Cas le Peak, and Ho sepool moni o ing s a ions o he da a
access page o ou websi e, h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/da a-access. We ha e upda ed
specia ed o ganic compound da a on he same web page.
Du ing he yea , we p o ided me eo ological and chemical da ase s o egula o s, en i onmen al
consul an s, and ene gy companies o use in hei own analyses.
2.6. Ou comes om Annual Ai Quali y P ojec Objec i es
We es ablished p ojec objec i es o he cu en epo ing pe iod (No embe 2024 h ough Oc obe
2025) in 2024. They can be ound a
h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/ iles/annualplans/2025_SSD1_p oposal.pd . In Table 2-2, we
epo on p og ess owa d hose objec i es and any disc epancies be ween planned wo k and ac ual
ou comes.
Table 2-2. Ou comes o annual ai quali y p ojec objec i es o he cu en epo ing pe iod.
OBJECTIVE
OUTCOMES
Ai Chemis y and Me eo ology
Ope a e ai quali y
moni o ing s a ions
We comple ed his objec i e o win e 2024-25. We will con inue
ope a ion o hese s a ions o he coming win e .
Con inue In es iga ion
o Ca bonyl Fluxes a
Measu emen s o his objec i e a e comple e, and analysis o he da a
ob ained is comple e. This epo con ains a sec ion highligh ing key
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OBJECTIVE
OUTCOMES
he Ai -snow In e ace
esul s om his p ojec . We a e cu en ly p epa ing a pee - e iewed
publica ion o his p ojec .
In es iga e Ozone
Fo ma ion in
Summe ime Wild i e
Smoke
We ha e de eloped an ai chemis y box model o simula e ozone
o ma ion du ing smoke e en s a Roose el , bu we ha e no ye
comple ed analysis o he esul s o he model, and we belie e we need
addi ional ield da a be o e we can comple e his p ojec . We will
con inue his wo k in he coming yea .
Ai Quali y Modeling
De elop a Sys em o
Quan i a i e Win e
Ozone Fo ecas s
The Cly a win e ozone o ecas ing sys em was ope a ional du ing win e
2024-25. We ha e made signi ican imp o emen s, and will use he
sys em again o he coming win e wi h ou Ozone Ale p og am. Cly a
is able o p o ide quan i a i e o ecas s, including likelihood and
con idence in o ma ion, so s akeholde s who use Ozone Ale can make
be e decisions abou how o educe win e ozone when i ma e s mos .
S udy he Impac o
Chemical Mechanisms
on Simula ions o
Win e Ozone
Ou box model s udy o win e ozone chemical mechanisms is comple e
and cu en ly unde e iew o publica ion. We a e now de eloping a
model using he WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ so wa e sys em ha we will use in
he coming yea o con inue his wo k. De elopmen o he WRF-SMOKE-
CMAQ model has been slowe han expec ed.
De elop a Win e Ozone
3D Pho ochemical
Model
As discussed in he p e ious ow, de elopmen o he model has been
slowe han expec ed. We ha e WRF me eo ological model ou pu eady,
and we ha e inalized base model emissions wi h he SMOKE pla o m.
We a e cu en ly wo king on using WRF and SMOKE ou pu s as inpu s o
un he CMAQ model. This wo k will con inue in he coming yea .
Emissions Cha ac e iza ion
De e mine changes o
Basin-wide Pollu an
Emissions o e Time
We comple ed his objec i e. We used he In eg a ed Me hane In e sion
me hod o de e mine Basin-wide me hane emissions om 2013 h ough
2024 and pe o med an analysis o de e mine he causes o emission
changes. We a e now wo king o publish hese da a and o c ea e a web
in e ace o sha e hese da a wi h s akeholde s.
Analyze Emission
Sou ces—Types and
Spa ial Dis ibu ion
We did no comple e his objec i e.
De elop Me hods o
De e mine Oil S o age
Tank Emission Fac o s in
he Uin a Basin
This p ojec has been delayed because pa ne s on he p ojec ha e no
comple ed hei po ion o he wo k. We ha e done e e y hing we can
and a e wai ing o ecei e da a and analyses om pa ne s so we can
comple e he wo k. We expec a manusc ip o be comple e and
submi ed o pee - e iewed publica ion in he i s hal o 2026.
De elop a D one-based
Measu emen Sys em
o Emissions om Oil
and Gas Sou ces
This is a mul i-yea objec i e. We a e s ill wo king on de elopmen o
so wa e o con e he d one da a in o emission alues. We expec o
ha e ha comple e in ea ly 2026, and hen we will begin measu emen o
ac ual emission sou ces.
S akeholde Engagemen
19
OBJECTIVE
OUTCOMES
O ganize a New
S akeholde Guidance
Commi ee
We comple ed his objec i e. We c ea ed a new s akeholde guidance
commi ee, held mee ings wi h hem, and hey a e ac i ely wo king wi h
us o guide ou esea ch.
Ope a e a Websi e o
Display Real- ime Ai
Quali y In o ma ion o
he Public
We comple ed his objec i e o he epo ing pe iod. We also buil a new
websi e, basinwx.com, and he websi e is ope a ional.
Ope a e he Ozone Ale
p og am
We comple ed his objec i e o he epo ing pe iod.
Uin a Basin Ozone
Wo king G oup
We comple ed his objec i e o he epo ing pe iod. Mo e abou he
wo king g oup can be ound a h ps://www.usu.edu/basinozoneg oup/.
20
3. Win e 2024-25 Ai Quali y and Me eo ology
Au ho s: Se h Lyman and T e o O’Neil
This sec ion epo s on ai quali y condi ions ha occu ed du ing win e 2024-25 (1 Decembe 2024
h ough 31 Ma ch 2025).
3.1. Me hods
3.1.1. Ozone
Du ing win e 2024-25, ele en moni o ing s a ions ha measu ed ozone ope a ed in he Uin a Basin.
Table 3-1 con ains a lis o all moni o ing s a ions, including loca ions, ele a ions, and ope a o s. We
ob ained da a o s a ions ope a ed by o ganiza ions o he han USU om he U.S. En i onmen al
P o ec ion Agency (EPA)’s AQS da abase (h ps://aqs.epa.go /api) and ai now ech.o g. We u ilized an
Eco ech 9810 ozone analyze a he Ho sepool si e, a 2B Technology 205 ozone moni o a he Se en
Sis e s si e, and a Teledyne T400 a he Cas le Peak si e. We pe o med calib a ion checks a all USU
s a ions a leas e e y o he week using NIST- aceable ozone s anda ds. Calib a ion checks passed i
moni o s epo ed in he ange o ±5 ppb when exposed o 0 ppb ozone and i moni o s we e wi hin
±7% de ia ion om expec ed alues when exposed o highe concen a ions o ozone. We only
included da a b acke ed by success ul calib a ion checks in he inal da ase .
Table 3-1. Ai quali y moni o ing s a ions ha ope a ed du ing win e 2024-25. All s a ions measu ed ozone
and basic me eo ological pa ame e s. S a ions ha measu ed o ganic compounds, NOX, and/o PM2.5 a e
indica ed. NOX* signi ies NO2 measu ed wi h a pho oly ic NO2 ( a he han molybdenum) con e e . NPS is he
Na ional Pa k Se ice. UDAQ is he U ah Di ision o Ai Quali y. BLM is he Bu eau o Land Managemen . AQS
is he EPA AQS ai quali y da abase (h ps://aqs.epa.go /api).
Ope a o
La i ude
Longi ude
Ele . (m)
O ganics
NO
X
, PM
2.5
Da a Sou ce
Se en Sis e s
USU
39.981
-109.345
1618
N/A
N/A
USU
Cas le Peak
USU
40.051
-110.020
1605
Yes
NO
X
*
USU
Dinosau N.M.
NPS
40.437
-109.305
1463
N/A
N/A
AQS
Red Wash
U e T ibe
40.204
-109.352
1689
N/A
NO
X
AQS
Ve nal
UDAQ
40.453
-109.510
1606
N/A
NO
X
, PM
2.5
AQS
Whi e ocks
U e T ibe
40.484
-109.906
1893
N/A
NO
X
AQS
Ou ay
U e T ibe
40.055
-109.688
1464
N/A
NO
X
AQS
Roose el
DAQ/USU
40.294
-110.009
1587
Yes
NO
X
*, PM
2.5
AQS/USU
My on
U e T ibe
40.217
-110.182
1610
N/A
NO
X
AQS
Ho sepool
USU
40.144
-109.467
1569
Yes
NO
X
*, PM
2.5
USU
Rangely
NPS/BLM
40.087
-108.762
1648
N/A
NO
X
, PM
2.5
AQS
3.1.2. Reac i e Ni ogen
We measu ed NO, ue NO2 ( ia a pho oly ic con e e ), and NOy a Roose el wi h a Teledyne-API NOX
analyze . We measu ed NO, ue NO2, and NOY wi h a The mo 42i wi h a pho oly ic con e e a
Ho sepool, and we measu ed NO and ue NO2 wi h a The mo 42i wi h a pho oly ic con e e a Cas le
21
Peak. All h ee pho oly ic con e e s we e manu ac u ed by Ai Quali y Design, Inc. NOX is he sum o
NO and NO2. NOy is he sum o NOX and o he eac i e ni ogen compounds in he gas and ine
pa icula e phases. We calib a ed he sys ems weekly wi h NO s anda ds and o NO2 and NOY ia gas-
phase i a ion using a dilu ion calib a o . Ins umen s we e ecalib a ed h oughou he season as
needed, and, in some cases, da a we e adjus ed a e he season ended based on calib a ion da a. Once
du ing he season, we calib a ed NOY ins umen a ion wi h ni ic acid and isop opyl ni a e pe mea ion
ubes. All si es ope a ed by o he o ganiza ions measu ed NO and NO2 ia a molybdenum con e e -
based sys em, a me hod known o bias NO2 and NOX esul s high due o NOY in e e ence (Jung e al.,
2017; Mans ield and Lyman, 2021).
3.1.3. Me hane and To al Non-me hane Hyd oca bons
We measu ed me hane and o al non-me hane hyd oca bons a Ho sepool and Roose el wi h a
Ch oma o ec Ch omaTHC and a The mo 55i, espec i ely. We calib a ed hese sys ems e e y week wi h
ce i ied gas s anda ds (con aining me hane and p opane) and a dilu ion calib a o . Ins umen s we e
ecalib a ed h oughou he season as needed, and, in some cases, da a we e adjus ed a e he season
ended based on calib a ion da a.
3.1.4. Specia ed Non-me hane Hyd oca bons and Alcohols
To measu e specia ed non-me hane hyd oca bons and alcohols, we collec ed whole-ai samples wi h
siloni e-coa ed 6 L s ainless s eel canis e s a Ho sepool, Roose el , and Cas le Peak. We collec ed a
mos one can pe day ia an au oma ed sampling mani old (we illed some cans om 0:30 o 3:30 local
s anda d ime and he o he s om 12:30 o 15:30). We used s ainless s eel c i ical o i ice-based low
egula o s o egula e low in o he canis e s, and we con olled sample collec ion wi h a nickel-pla ed
b ass mani old wi h ine solenoid al es (Clippa d pa numbe O-ET-2M-12). Tubing and i ings we e
all ei he PFA Te lon o s ainless s eel. A PTFE il e ups eam o he sample line il e ed pa icles (5 µm
po e size). The il e s and ou doo componen s o he inle lines we e hea ed o 30°C.
We analyzed he canis e s o 54 hyd oca bons, me hanol, e hanol, and isop opanol using a me hod
simila o guidance p o ided by EPA o Pho ochemical Assessmen Moni o ing S a ions (Epa, 1998). We
used cold ap dehyd a ion (Wang and Aus in, 2006) wi h an En ech 7200 p econcen a o and a 7016D
au osample o p econcen a e samples. We analyzed samples wi h an Agilen 8890 gas ch oma og aph
(GC), a lame ioniza ion de ec o (FID; o C2 and C3 hyd oca bons), and an Agilen 5973 mass
spec ome e (MS; o all o he compounds). We used a Res ek x1-ms column (all compounds; 60 m,
0.32 mm ID), a Res ek Alumina BOND/Na2SO4 column (C2 and C3 hyd oca bons; 50 m,0.32 mm ID), and
ano he Res ek x1-ms column (all o he compounds; 30 m, 0.25 mm ID) o sepa a e compounds in he
GCs.
We used 5-poin cu es o calib a e he lame ioniza ion de ec o and mass spec ome e a leas
mon hly. We analyzed a leas one eplica e sample, a leas wo blanks, and a leas wo calib a ion
checks du ing each ba ch. We accep ed da a i calib a ion cu es had 2 alues g ea e han 0.99, i all
alues o blanks we e less han 1 ppb, i duplica e alues o each compound a e aged wi hin 10% o
each o he , and i calib a ion checks o each compound we e wi hin 20% o expec ed alues. We used
blank alues o co ec sample esul s.

22
Mo e in o ma ion abou ou canis e analysis p o ocols and esul s is a ailable in Lyman e al. (2021)
and Lyman e al. (2018). Table 3-2 lis s he o ganic compounds measu ed.
Table 3-2. Lis o o ganic compounds measu ed, he compound g oup o each, and he analy ical me hod used.
Compound
G oup
Analy ical me hod
E hane
Alkane
GC/FID
E hylene
Alkene
GC/FID
P opane
Alkane
GC/FID
P opylene
Alkene
GC/FID
Isobu ane
Alkane
GC/MS
n-Bu ane
Alkane
GC/MS
Ace ylene
Alkyne
GC/FID
T ans-2-bu ene
Alkene
GC/MS
1-Bu ene
Alkene
GC/MS
Cis-2-bu ene
Alkene
GC/MS
Isopen ane
Alkene
GC/MS
N-Pen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
T ans-2-pen ene
Alkene
GC/MS
1-Pen ene
Alkene
GC/MS
Cis-2-pen ene
Alkene
GC/MS
2,2-Dime hylbu ane
Alkane
GC/MS
Cyclopen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
2,3-Dime hylbu ane
Alkane
GC/MS
2-Me hylpen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
3-Me hylpen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
Isop ene
Alkene
GC/MS
1-Hexene
Alkene
GC/MS
n-Hexane
Alkane
GC/MS
Me hylcyclopen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
2,4-Dime hylpen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
Benzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
Cyclohexane
Alkane
GC/MS
2-Me hylhexane
Alkane
GC/MS
2,3-Dime hylpen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
3-Me hylhexane
Alkane
GC/MS
2,2,4-T ime hylpen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
n-Hep ane
Alkane
GC/MS
Me hylcyclohexane
Alkane
GC/MS
2,3,4-T ime hylpen ane
Alkane
GC/MS
Toluene
A oma ic
GC/MS
2-Me hylhep ane
Alkane
GC/MS
23
Compound
G oup
Analy ical me hod
3-Me hylhep ane
Alkane
GC/MS
n-Oc ane
Alkane
GC/MS
E hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
m/p-Xylene
A oma ic
GC/MS
S y ene
Alkene
GC/MS
o-Xylene
A oma ic
GC/MS
n-Nonane
Alkane
GC/MS
Isop opylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
n-P opylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
1-E hyl-3- me hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
1-E hyl-4-me hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
1,3,5-T ime hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
1-E hyl-2- me hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
1,2,4-T ime hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
n-Decane
Alkane
GC/MS
1,2,3-T ime hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
1,3-Die hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
1,4-Die hylbenzene
A oma ic
GC/MS
Me hanol
Alcohol
GC/MS
E hanol
Alcohol
GC/MS
Isop opanol
Alcohol
GC/MS
Fo maldehyde
Ca bonyl
HPLC
Ace aldehyde
Ca bonyl
HPLC
Ac olein
Ca bonyl
HPLC
Ace one
Ca bonyl
HPLC
P opionaldehyde
Ca bonyl
HPLC
C o onaldehyde
Ca bonyl
HPLC
Bu y aldehyde
Ca bonyl
HPLC
Me hac olein
Ca bonyl
HPLC
2-Bu anone
Ca bonyl
HPLC
Benzaldehyde
Ca bonyl
HPLC
Vale aldehyde
Ca bonyl
HPLC
3.1.5. Ca bonyls
We collec ed samples on DNPH ca idges and elu ed and analyzed hem using modi ica ions o he
me hods o Uchiyama e al. (2009), Anneken e al. (2015), Shimadzu me hod LAAN-J-LC-E090 (Shimadzu,
2011), and Res ek Li . Ca . # EVSS2393A-UNV (Res ek, 2018). These echniques a e somewha di e en
om U.S. EPA Me hod TO-11A (Epa, 1999), which has become ou da ed due o imp o ed
ins umen a ion capabili ies and column sepa a ion echnologies. The sample pa h ups eam o he
ca idges du ing ield collec ion was composed en i ely o PFA Te lon, wi h a PTFE il e ups eam o he
24
sample line o il e pa icles (5 µm po e size). Sample collec ion imes we e he same as hose o he
canis e s desc ibed abo e (3 hou s). The il e and o he ou doo componen s o he collec ion sys em
we e hea ed o 30°C.
We elu ed ca idges wi hin 14 days o sampling and analyzed he eluen wi hin 30 days. To elu e DNPH
ca idge samples, we lushed ca idges wi h 5 mL o a solu ion o 75% ace oni ile and 25% dime hyl
sul oxide (pe cen by olume). We collec ed he solu ion in o 5 mL olume ic lasks and b ough he
lasks o a olume o 5 mL using 0.5–1 mL o he ace oni ile/dime hyl sul oxide solu ion. Finally, we
pipe ed a 1.6 mL aliquo om he 5 mL lask in o wo 2 mL au osample ials o analysis by high-
pe o mance liquid ch oma og aphy (HPLC). The second ial was kep as a spa e in case o
con amina ion o equipmen ailu e.
We used a comme cial s anda d mix u e (M-1004; AccuS anda d, New Ha en, CT, USA) o de i a ized
ca bonyls in ace oni ile o calib a ion. We analyzed samples wi h a Shimadzu (Some se , NJ, USA)
Nexe a-i LC-2040C 3d Plus HPLC and a Shimadzu Shim-Pack Velox C18 column. We used a mix u e o
ace oni ile, e ahyd o u an, and wa e as he eluen . We calib a ed he ins umen on each analysis
day wi h a 5-poin calib a ion cu e and an a leas one addi ional calib a ion s anda d a he beginning
and end o each analysis ba ch o check o e en ion ime d i o o he e o s.
Addi ional in o ma ion abou he me hods used is a ailable in Lyman e al. (2021). Table 3-2 lis s he
o ganic compounds ha we measu ed.
3.1.6. Pa icula e Ma e Measu emen s
We measu ed pa icula e ma e wi h ae odynamic diame e smalle han 2.5 mic ome e s (PM2.5) a
Ho sepool wi h a BAM 1020 moni o . We ope a ed he ins umen acco ding o manu ac u e
p o ocols, wi h leak checks, low and mass calib a ions, de ec o calib a ions, and cleanings pe o med
a egula in e als. We ob ained pa icula e ma e alues o o he si es om he EPA AQS da abase
(h ps://aqs.epa.go /api).
3.1.7. Me eo ological Measu emen s
We deployed sola adia ion senso s a Ho sepool (incoming and ou going sho wa e and longwa e wi h
a Hukse lux NR01 adiome e and UV-A and UV-B wi h Kipp and Zonen UV adiome e s), Roose el
(incoming and ou going sho wa e wi h a Kipp and Zonen CNR-4), and Cas le Peak (incoming and
ou going sho wa e and longwa e wi h a Hukse lux NR01 adiome e ). We checked hese senso s
agains calcula ions o clea -sky adia ion annually.
We ope a ed a sui e o comp ehensi e, esea ch-g ade me eo ological ins umen s a all si es ope a ed
by USU. We checked wind speed and di ec ion, empe a u e, humidi y, and ba ome ic p essu e agains
a NIST- aceable s anda d once annually. We checked snow dep h senso s agains a heigh s anda d
annually. We also ob ained me eo ological da a om he EPA AQS da abase.
25
3.1.8. Da a Quali y
Table 3-3 shows a summa y o da a quali y esul s o ambien ai chemical measu emen s we collec ed
du ing he epo ing pe iod. The maximum up ime possible o mos measu emen s shown in he able
is app oxima ely 95% due o main enance and calib a ion pe iods.
Table 3-3. Da a quali y summa y o ozone, oxides o ni ogen (NOX), ca bon monoxide (CO), and o ganic
compound da a collec ed du ing 2024-25. Resul s a e shown as a e ages ± 95% con idence in e als o all
loca ions a which he indica ed measu emen s we e collec ed (con idence in e als a e shown i he numbe o
da a poin s is h ee o mo e). Pe cen up ime indica es he pe cen o he measu emen pe iod o which alid
measu emen s we e ob ained. NMHC indica es non-me hane hyd oca bons. N/A means no applicable.
Measu emen
Ze o calib.
(ppb)
Span calib.
(% eco .)
Pe cen
up ime
Ozone
-2.1 ± 0.5
100 ± 1
91 ± 31
NO
0.0 ± 0.0
100 ± 1
94 ± 5
NO
X
(NO calib.)
0.1 ± 0.1
100 ± 1
94 ± 5
NO
y
(NO calib.)
-0.7 ± 0.3
99 ± 1
95
NO
X
(GPT calib.)
N/A
101 ± 1
94 ± 5
NOy (GPT calib.)
N/A
99 ± 1
95
CO
0 ± 7
103 ± 3
46
Me hane
33 ± 13
100 ± 1
66
To al NMHC
52 ± 25
103 ± 2
66
Specia ed NMHC
0.1 ± 0.0
99 ± 0
86
Specia ed Ca bonyls
0.0 ± 0.0
96 ± 0
86
PM
2.5
(BAM)
N/A
N/A
97
Specia ed NMHC and specia ed ca bonyl samples analyzed in duplica e we e 3 ± 2% and 3 ± 1% di e en
om each o he (a e age ± 95% con idence in e al).
In addi ion o he quali y checks desc ibed in his sec ion and abo e, we compa ed ou ozone and NOX
ins umen a ion agains calib a ion ans e s anda ds made a ailable by he U ah Di ision o Ai
Quali y.
3.2. Resul s and Discussion
3.2.1. Ozone
Ve y li le snow co e exis ed ac oss he lowe ele a ions o he Uin a Basin, keeping ozone well below
he 70 ppb EPA s anda d h oughou win e 2024-25 a Ho sepool (Figu e 3-1) and a si es ac oss he
Basin (Figu e 3-2), excep a he end o Janua y and i s o Feb ua y, when empe a u e in e sion
condi ions pe sis ed o a ew days. Du ing hose ew days, ozone inc eased a se e al si es and
exceeded he EPA s anda d o wo days a he Cas le Peak si e, which is used o esea ch pu poses
only and no o egula o y decision-making.
32
Figu e 3-10. Hou ly a e age me hane measu ed a Roose el and Ho sepool du ing win e 2024-25.
Figu e 3-11. Hou ly a e age o al non-me hane hyd oca bons (TNMHC) measu ed a Roose el and Ho sepool
du ing win e 2024-25. ppmC is pa s-pe -million o ca bon a oms.
Li le o no snow was p esen du ing win e 2024-25, excep a ound he end o Janua y and i s o
Feb ua y (Figu e 3-12), keeping albedo (i.e., e lec i i y o sola adia ion om he g ound su ace) low
(Figu e 3-13).

33
Figu e 3-12. Snow dep h a he Roose el , Ho sepool, and Cas le Peak s a ions du ing win e 2024-25.
Figu e 3-13. Sho wa e albedo a he Roose el and Cas le Peak s a ions du ing win e 2024-25. Sho wa e
adia ion is isible ligh om he sun. Albedo is he pe cen age o adia ion ha is e lec ed by he ea h’s
su ace.
Ozone a Cas le Peak was highe han a he o he s a ions du ing he second hal o win e 2024-25
(Figu e 3-14). When snow co e exis ed a he end o Janua y and he i s o Feb ua y, Cas le Peak was
he only si e wi h ozone abo e 70 ppb, which could be because i had highe a e age o ganic compound
concen a ions han he o he si es (Figu e 3-19). Roose el ozone ended o be lowe han a
Ho sepool and Cas le Peak, especially a nigh (Figu e 3-15). This was he case e en hough NOX and
non-me hane hyd oca bons we e bo h highe a Roose el han a Ho sepool, and e en hough snow
dep h and albedo we e simila ly low a all si es. We expec ha his occu ed because he a mosphe e
a Roose el has mo e NOX han is needed o ozone p oduc ion. Too much NOX can allow NOX o eac
wi h and des oy ozone, supp essing ozone concen a ions. A nigh , when no pho ochemis y occu s,
ozone is no o med, bu NOX can s ill eac wi h and des oy ozone, leading o he la ge NOX educ ion
a nigh in Roose el compa ed o he o he loca ions.
34
Figu e 3-14. Hou ly a e age ozone measu ed a Roose el , Ho sepool, Cas le Peak, and Se en Sis e s du ing
win e 2024-25.
Figu e 3-15. A e age ozone a Roose el , Ho sepool, and Cas le Peak du ing each hou o he day du ing
in e sion episodes ha occu ed du ing win e 2024-25. Whiske s ep esen 95% con idence in e als.
3.2.4. Specia ed Vola ile O ganic Compounds
This sec ion ocuses on measu emen s o indi idual o ganic compounds measu ed om whole ai
canis e samples (Sec ion 3.1.4) and DNPH ca idge samples (Sec ion 3.1.5).
As in p e ious yea s, o ganic compounds in he a mosphe e a ield si es we e domina ed by alkanes,
especially ligh e alkanes (Figu e 3-16 and Figu e 3-17). Benzene, oluene, xylenes, and o he a oma ics
we e ela i ely low, and C8 and la ge a oma ics we e a e y low le els when obse ed. The o ganic
compound specia ion a all si es was simila , indica ing ha he loca ions we e all in luenced by he
same gene al sou ce ype (oil and na u al gas p oduc ion).
35
Figu e 3-16. Pe cen by olume o measu ed o ganics a Cas le Peak, Ho sepool, and Roose el du ing win e
2024-25 comp ised o alkanes, alkenes, a oma ics, alcohols, and ca bonyls.
Figu e 3-17. Pe cen by olume o measu ed non-me hane hyd oca bons a Cas le Peak, Ho sepool, and
Roose el du ing win e 2024-25 comp ised by compounds con aining 2-9 ca bon a oms (i.e., C2-C9; excludes
alcohols and ca bonyls).
To al hyd oca bon concen a ions a Roose el , Ho sepool, and Cas le Peak gene ally acked each o he
and ended o be highe in ea ly win e when a mosphe ic mixing was lowe (Figu e 3-18), and a he
end o Janua y and i s o Feb ua y, when in e sion condi ions exis ed. To al hyd oca bons we e highe
in canis e samples han in eal- ime o al hyd oca bon analyze da a du ing in e sion condi ions,
p obably because he canis e s measu e compounds ha a e missed o unde sampled wi h he eal-
ime analyze s. A e age o al non-me hane hyd oca bons, measu ed as he sum o indi idual
compounds in uni s o ppbC, we e no s a is ically di e en among he si es (p >0.34 o - es s; Figu e
3-19), bu Cas le Peak had highe a e age o al non-me hane hyd oca bons han he o he si es, and i
had he highes o al non-me hane hyd oca bons du ing he in e sion episode a he end o Janua y and
i s o Feb ua y (Figu e 3-18).
36
Figu e 3-18. Time se ies o o al non-me hane hyd oca bons (NMHC) a Roose el , Ho sepool, and Cas le Peak
du ing win e 2024-25. Uni s a e pa s pe million o ca bon a oms. Ci cles show he sum o specia ed o ganic
compounds de i ed om 3-h canis e measu emen s. Lines show 12-hou a e ages om con inuously
ope a ing gas ch oma og aphs.
Figu e 3-19. A e age o al NMHC a Ho sepool, Roose el , and Cas le Peak. Values a e he sum o indi idual
compounds measu ed om canis e samples in uni s o pa s pe million o ca bon a oms. Whiske s show 95%
con idence in e als.
3.3. Da a Access
All he da a p esen ed he e, as well as da a collec ed in p e ious yea s, a e a ailable a
h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/da a-access.
3.4. Acknowledgmen s
This wo k was unded by he U ah Legisla u e and Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1. Si e access o USU
moni o ing s a ions was p o ided by Koda Ene gy, Scou Ene gy, he U.S. Bu eau o Land Managemen ,
37
and he U ah Di ision o Ai Quali y. We also hank B aden Clus e , Bo Call, and o he s a he U ah
Di ision o Ai Quali y o p o iding calib a ion suppo , da a access, and equipmen . The Ma ine S.
Eccles Founda ion p o ided unds o a gas ch oma og aph-mass spec ome e ha is used o analysis
o o ganic compounds in canis e samples. Che on p o ided unds o a high-pe o mance liquid
ch oma og aph ha is used o analysis o ca bonyls collec ed on DNPH ca idges.

38
4. Summe ime Ai Quali y
Au ho : Se h Lyman
Fi e exceedances o he U.S. En i onmen al P o ec ion Agency (EPA) ozone s anda d o 70 ppb occu ed
du ing he sp ing and summe seasons in 2025 (1 Ap il h ough 30 Sep embe ). The maximum ozone
du ing sp ing and summe occu ed in Whi e ocks (78 ppb on 31 May). Figu e 4-1 shows a ime se ies o
ozone in he Basin du ing his pe iod, and Table 4-1 shows a lis o ozone alues on exceedance days o
he same s a ions. Some o hese da a a e om EPA’s eal- ime Ai NowTech da abase, a e no inal, and
may change.
Figu e 4-1. 8-h mo ing a e age ozone a moni o ing s a ions in he Uin a Basin du ing summe 2025. The ed
dashed line shows he EPA ozone s anda d o 70 ppb.
Table 4-1. Daily maximum 8-hou a e age ozone o days du ing which ozone a a leas one s a ion exceeded
he EPA s anda d o he pe iod o 1 Ap il h ough 30 Sep embe 2025.
21 Ap
31 May
20 Jun
21 Jun
27 Jun
My on
63
69
71
65
68
Ou ay
54
60
58
54
56
Red Wash
58
64
61
60
--
Whi e ocks
72
78
73
71
71
Roose el
66
74
71
61
70
Ve nal
69
71
69
69
68
Figu e 4-2 shows a ime se ies o basin-wide daily maximum 8-h a e age ozone along wi h basin-wide
daily maximum 8-h a e age PM2.5 o 1 Ap il h ough 30 Sep embe 2025. Smoke emi ed om i es is
ich in PM2.5 ( isible smoke is mos ly PM2.5). Figu e 4-2 shows ha PM2.5 did no inc ease abo e he 35
μg m-3 s anda d du ing he pe iod ( he s anda d is o a 24-h a e age, bu 8-h a e ages a e used he e
o consis ency wi h ozone da a). High PM2.5 days we e some imes (bu no always) high ozone days.
39
Figu e 4-2. Maximum ozone measu ed a any si e in he Uin a Basin and Basin-maximum PM2.5 o 1 Ap il
h ough 30 Sep embe 2025. All alues a e 8-h mo ing a e ages. The EPA ozone s anda d o 70 ppb and he
EPA PM2.5 s anda d o 35 μg m-3 a e also shown. The EPA PM2.5 s anda d is o a 24-h a e age.
Wild i e smoke can lead o ozone exceedances, bu high PM2.5 om wild i e smoke does no always
mean ha ozone will also be high. High PM2.5 in la e July was associa ed wi h ela i ely low ozone, o
example (Figu e 4-2). Ozone can also be high in summe because o in usion o ozone- ich ai om he
s a osphe e, and his may ha e been he cause o ozone exceedances on 21 Ap il and 31 May. Mo e
wo k would be needed o con i m he cause o ozone exceedances on hese days.
4.1. Acknowledgmen s
This wo k was unded by he U ah Legisla u e and Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1.
40
5. Uin a Basin Ai Quali y T ends
Au ho : Se h Lyman
5.1. In oduc ion
The pu pose o his sec ion is o ack changes in Uin a Basin ai quali y and he easons o hose
changes. We seek o answe :
1. A e le els o ozone and i s p ecu so s changing o e ime?
2. Wha a e he causes o any changes ha occu ?
In gene al, empo al ends in ozone and i s p ecu so s, i hey exis , can be expec ed o be caused by
changes in me eo ology o changes in pollu an emissions. In his sec ion, we use s a is ical me hods o
a emp o sepa a e he wo.
5.2. Ozone
Figu e 5-1 shows a ime se ies o ozone concen a ions in he Uin a Basin om win e 2010-11 h ough
he mos ecen win e . The igu e shows he 4 h-highes 8-h a e age ozone concen a ion ( he ozone
me ic used by EPA) o he moni o ing s a ion wi h he highes alue o each win e season. The igu e
shows ha he 4 h-highes 8-hou a e age ozone exceeded he EPA s anda d o 70 ppb in 7 o he pas
15 win e s (47%). O he pas six win e s, howe e , only one had a si e wi h 4 h-highes 8-hou a e age
ozone abo e he EPA s anda d, indica ing ha ozone exceeding he EPA s anda d is becoming less
common du ing Uin a Basin win e s.
41
Figu e 5-1. Time se ies o he maximum win e ime 4 h-highes daily maximum 8-h a e age ozone
concen a ion obse ed a any moni o ing s a ion in he Uin a Basin ( op) o a egula o y moni o ing s a ions
only (bo om) om win e 2010-11 h ough he mos ecen win e . The ed dashed lines show 70 ppb, he EPA
s anda d o ozone. The yea shown on he X axis is o Janua y o each win e season, so 2011 on he X axis
indica es win e 2010-11.
Figu e 5-2 shows he maximum numbe o ozone exceedances expe ienced a any moni o ing s a ion in
he Uin a Basin o each win e (i.e., he numbe o days wi h 8-h a e age ozone abo e he EPA
s anda d o 70 ppb). The highes numbe o exceedances (41) occu ed du ing win e 2012-13, bu he
numbe o win e 2022-23 was simila (39), e en hough he 4 h-highes daily maximum ozone alue
o any si e was much lowe in win e 2022-23 (110 ppb) compa ed o win e 2012-13 (138 ppb; Figu e
5-1).
48
he pseudo-lapse a e calcula ion and he NOY measu emen . The yea shown on he X axis is o Janua y o each
win e season, so 2013 on he X axis indica es win e 2012-13.
Figu e 5-10. Daily a e age me hane a a pseudo-lapse a e o -15 K km-1, as p edic ed om yea - and si e-speci ic
linea eg essions o me hane agains he pseudo-lapse a e. Whiske s show he combined unce ain y o he
pseudo-lapse a e calcula ion and he me hane measu emen . The yea shown on he X axis is o Janua y o
each win e season, so 2013 on he X axis indica es win e 2012-13.
Figu e 5-11. Daily a e age o al non-me hane hyd oca bons a a pseudo-lapse a e o -15 K km-1, as p edic ed
om yea - and si e-speci ic linea eg essions o non-me hane hyd oca bons agains he pseudo-lapse a e.
Whiske s show he combined unce ain y o he pseudo-lapse a e calcula ion and he non-me hane
hyd oca bons measu emen . The yea shown on he X axis is o Janua y o each win e season, so 2013 on he
X axis indica es win e 2012-13.
The esul s o Ho sepool a e simila o he indings o Mans ield and Lyman (2021) and Lin e al. (2021),
which all show ha emissions o me hane, NOX, and non-me hane hyd oca bons ha e declined since
2013. No clea end exis s o me hane and non-me hane hyd oca bons a Roose el excep o he
mos ecen wo yea s, when me hane and non-me hane hyd oca bons declined. The NOY end a
Roose el is domina ed by a s ong upswing in win e s 2014 and 2023, and a no able decline in 2025.
5.4.4. Basin-wide Me hane Emissions T ends
We ha e used wo me hods o assess me hane emissions a he Basin scale. The i s me hod is de ailed
in a inal echnical epo o he U ah Di ision o Ai Quali y (Lyman e al., 2024b), which builds upon a

49
me hod pionee ed by Lin e al. (2021). The Lin e al. me hod calcula es op-down, Basin-wide me hane
emissions es ima es om obse ed enhancemen s o me hane a Ho sepool ela i e o F ui land, an
upwind baseline si e wi h li le in luence om local emission sou ces. The esidence ime o ai pa cels
measu ed a Ho sepool, and he esul ing sensi i i y o Ho sepool me hane enhancemen s o Basin
emissions, a e calcula ed using he S ochas ic Time-In e ed Lag angian T anspo (STILT) a mosphe ic
model, which simula es ai pa cel anspo 24 hou s backwa d in ime om he measu emen si e. The
STILT model is used o calcula e expec ed emissions om oil and gas acili ies, based on he me hane
enhancemen a Ho sepool. De ails o his me hod a e a ailable in he ci ed e e ences. In he inal
echnical epo , we also es ima ed emissions o NOx and non-me hane o ganics based on hei
measu ed a io o me hane in ambien ai .
The second me hod we used was he In eg a ed Me hane In e sion, which uses me hane concen a ion
da a om he TROPOMI sa elli e ins umen (Figu e 5-12) wi h he GEOS-Chem pho ochemical anspo
model in in e se mode o es ima e he emissions equi ed o achie e he me hane concen a ions
obse ed wi h TROPOMI (Figu e 5-13). De ails o he In eg a ed Me hane In e sion me hod a e gi en in
Va on e al. (2022) and Va on e al. (2023). We ca ied ou in e sion es ima es o Uin ah and Duchesne
Coun ies o each wo-mon h pe iod om Janua y 2019 ( he i s ull yea ha TROPOMI da a a e
a ailable) h ough Decembe 2024. We used wo-mon h a e aging pe iods o inc ease he s a is ical
powe o he me hod. Each calenda yea was un sepa a ely, wi h a 6-mon h spin-up pe iod p io o
he s a o each yea , and de aul emissions om he U.S. EPA g eenhouse gas emissions in en o y
we e used o ini ia e each spin-up pe iod. Fo his me hod and he Lin e al. me hod, only da a o
sp ing and summe we e used in inal analyses because o unce ain y in he models used o gene a e
he me eo ological da ase s o win e ime condi ions in he Uin a Basin.
Figu e 5-12. A e age column mixing a io o me hane o No embe and Decembe 2021, de e mined by he
TROPOMI sa elli e me hane senso . The black line shows Uin ah and Duchesne Coun ies a he 25 km esolu ion
o he GEOS-Chem model used o he In eg a ed Me hane In e sion.
50
Figu e 5-13. Emissions o me hane wi hin Uin ah and Duchesne Coun ies de e mined by he In eg a ed Me hane
In e sion me hod o No embe and Decembe 2021. P io emissions a e he emissions assumed by he model
a he ou se , and pos e io emissions a e hose de e mined by compa ing GEOS-Chem model esul s o
TROPOMI sa elli e-based me hane measu emen s.
The esul s o he wo me hods a e shown in Figu e 5-14. The wo me hods ga e simila esul s, excep
o yea 2021, du ing which he es ima e om he Lin e al. me hod was anomalously high. The Lin e al.
me hod elies on measu emen s om a g ound-based measu emen s a ion in an oil and gas-p oducing
a ea (Ho sepool) and could ha e been biased high by one o mo e local emission sou ces. An exhaus i e
explo a ion o his possibili y is a ailable in Lyman e al. (2024b). We assume he sa elli e-based
In eg a ed Me hane In e sion me hod p o ides a mo e ep esen a i e es ima e o emissions o he
Uin a Basin as a whole.
51
Figu e 5-14. Top panel: annual Uin a Basin me hane emissions es ima ed using he Lin e al. and In eg a ed
Me hane In e sion (IMI) me hods. The 2013 es ima e is om Ka ion e al. (2013). Bo om panel: o al annual
oil, gas, and combined oil+gas p oduc ion o Uin ah and Duchesne Coun ies (Udogm, 2023).
Figu e 5-14 also shows ha Basin-wide me hane emissions acked o al ossil ene gy and na u al gas
p oduc ion in he Uin a Basin, declining om 2013 h ough 2020, and hen inc easing he ea e as
p oduc ion inc eased. This is ue o all yea s excep 2024, when me hane emissions d opped ma kedly
while oil and gas p oduc ion con inued o inc ease.
One way o acking me hane emissions om oil and gas in as uc u e is as a pe cen age o ene gy
p oduced. In he Uin a Basin, he pe cen age o ossil ene gy p oduced ha was los o he a mosphe e
as me hane has declined almos con inuously o e he s udy pe iod (Figu e 5-15). In 2013, o a gi en
amoun o oil and gas p oduced, 5% o ha ene gy was los o he a mosphe e as me hane. In 2024,
only 1.5% was los as me hane. This shows ha oil and gas p oduc ion in he Basin has become mo e
e icien o e ime.
52
Figu e 5-15. Annual ime se ies o he pe cen age o na u al gas o o al ene gy (oil+gas) p oduced in he Uin a
Basin ha was los o he a mosphe e as me hane. Uin a Basin me hane emissions da a om he Lin e al.
me hod we e used h ough 2018, and da a om he In eg a ed Me hane In e sion me hod we e used om
2019 h ough he mos ecen yea .
5.5. Acknowledgmen s
This wo k was unded by he U ah Legisla u e and Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1.
53
6. Ozone Ale P og am
Au ho s: John R. Lawson and Se h Lyman
A he eques o oil and gas indus y ep esen a i es and wi h inpu om he U ah Di ision o Ai
Quali y, T iCoun y Heal h, and se e al oil and gas companies, we c ea ed a p og am in 2017 o ale oil
and gas companies when high win e ozone is expec ed. The p og am includes a web page
(h ps://www.usu.edu/bingham esea ch/ozone-ale ) o desc ibe he p og am and allow indi iduals o
sign up o ecei e ale s. When indi iduals sign up, we collec hei name, company name, and email.
We ha e also c ea ed a comp ehensi e eal- ime wea he and o ecas ing page, h ps://basinwx.com/.
We send e e yone on he lis an email when local ozone o ma ion is expec ed, i an ozone episode
ex ends longe han expec ed, and when episodes end o a e expec ed o end. We a emp o o ecas
ozone episodes up o wo weeks in ad ance, bu we acknowledge inc easing unce ain y wi h mo e
dis ance in o he u u e. The pu pose o his p og am is o p o ide use s wi h in o ma ion ha allows
hem o educe ozone- o ming pollu ion when i ma e s mos .
Win e 2024-25 had wo days wi h ozone exceeding he EPA s anda d o 70 ppb, which occu ed du ing
a snow e en ha led o snow accumula ion h oughou much o he Basin. Pe iods du ing which we
ale ed subsc ibe s ha high ozone was likely a e indica ed in Figu e 6-1. Ale s gi en a e colo -coded in
he igu e by isk se e i y.
Figu e 6-1. Time se ies o he highes daily maximum 8-h a e age ozone he si e obse ed a any moni o ing
si e in he Uin a Basin du ing win e 2024-25. The EPA ozone s anda d is shown as a ed dashed line. Pe iods
du ing which USU issued ozone ale s a e shown as colo ed shading.
The p og am cu en ly has 192 subsc ibe s, among whom 42% ep esen he ene gy indus y, 23% a e
a ilia ed wi h go e nmen en i ies, 19% a e membe s o he local public, 11% a e academics, 2% a e
ep esen a i es o he media, and 1% a e om en i onmen al g oups.

54
7. Cly a : Win e ime Ozone Fo ecas ing Sys em
Au ho : John R. Lawson
7.1. Execu i e Summa y
Win e 2024-25 ma ked he i s win e in which Ozone Ale was suppo ed by an expe imen al ozone
p edic ion sys em, Cly a , in he Uin a Basin. The Bingham Resea ch Cen e (he eby “Cen e ”) combined
wo ini ia i es: he Cly a ozone o ecas ing sys em discussed he ein, and he Ozone Ale ea ly wa ning
p og am. Fu he wo k has led o he BasinWx.com websi e o display in e ac i e p oduc s unde going
ac i e de elopmen . A e comple ing i s i s quasi-ope a ional season se ing Basin s akeholde s,
Cly a e sion 1.0 will be deployed ope a ionally on 1 Decembe 2025 o suppo Ozone Ale 2025-26.
This p ojec con inues o ill he gap be ween ma h heo y, cu ing-edge machine lea ning and a i icial
in elligence, and he p ac ical needs o s akeholde s. By ansla ing complex, unce ain wea he
o ecas s in o accessible isual p oduc s and plain language summa ies, we a e demons a ing ha
ad anced o ecas ing can, despi e some needed uning, se e di e se audiences om esea che s o
indus ial ope a ions o membe s o he public.
Du ing he epo ing pe iod, we comple ed he ollowing wi h ega d o Cly a and ozone o ecas ing:
• Success ul de ec ion o empe a u e in e sion (cold pool) po en ial du ing win e 2024-25.
• Fi s signal o in e sion condi ions o e 10 days ou , enabling Ozone Ale o ecas e s o moni o
he e olu ion o o ecas s o e long pe iods
• Real- ime expe ience o ecas ing ga e an in ui i e sense o whe e, when, and why Cly a has
pe o med poo ly, in o ming u he de elopmen
• Communi y engagemen and in e ac i e displays o o ecas and obse ed ai -quali y da a, ia
he so -launched BasinWx.com websi e, will imp o e communica ion on a ious le els o
complexi y app op ia e o s akeholde needs
• The exis ing ubai .usu.edu websi e will be decommissioned as pa o he BasinWx.com p ojec .
7.2. Ini ial Challenge
7.2.1. Win e Ozone Beha io
A e snow all and inc easing su ace p essu e in U ah's Uin a Basin, g ound-le el win e ime ozone can
spike o unheal hy le els, some imes exceeding na ional ai quali y s anda ds. This happens when ou
speci ic wea he condi ions align (Mans ield, 2018; Lyman e al., 2024a):
1. F esh snow co e c ea es a highly e lec i e su ace ha bounces sunligh back in o he
a mosphe e, inc easing sola ene gy a ailable o eac ions ha c ea e ozone.
2. High a mosphe ic p essu e allows quie me eo ological condi ions ha allow cold ai o se le in
he Basin and o m a pool o s able, dense, cold ai apped nea he g ound.
55
3. Calm winds p e en his cold ai and ozone p ecu so s om oil and gas ope a ions om mixing
away o mo ing ou o he Basin. This o ms a empe a u e in e sion whe e i becomes wa me
wi h heigh : an “upside-down” con igu a ion ha is s ubbo n o clea om he Basin.
4. Clea skies and highe sola angle inc ease he sola ene gy needed o ozone- o ming chemical
eac ions.
When hese condi ions pe sis o se e al days o mo e, such as when a la ge-scale an icyclone wea he
sys em emains o e he In e moun ain Wes o a pe iod, emissions om oil and gas ope a ions
(p ima ily ni ogen oxides and ola ile o ganics) become apped in he cold pool. The snow- e lec ed
sunligh d i es chemical eac ions ha con e hese emissions in o ozone, which accumula es day a e
day un il wea he pa e ns change and dispe se he cold pool, he snow mel s unde pe sis en and
su icien insola ion when empe a u es a e nea eezing, o inc easingly s ong insola ion in Ma ch
ha dis up s he cold pool h ough mixing (i.e., he mals o wa m ai ha chu n pollu ed su ace ai wi h
ee, cleane ai highe up).
7.2.2. The P oblem wi h T adi ional Ozone Simula ions
S anda d wea he o ecas ing models ha p edic la ge-scale me eo ological condi ions a e c ucial o
d i e chemis y simula ion models. Cumula i e wo k om he Cen e has shown poo me eo ology
modeling hams ings ozone- o ecas quali y mo e han chemis y modeling (Lyman e al., 2024b).
T adi ional g id-based nume ical wea he p edic ion models o en pe o m poo ly in moun ainous
egions due o wo majo obs acles, mainly s emming om he unce ain y o p edic ing a phenomenon
ha is sensi i e o small changes in snow dep h:
1. Compu a ional demand equi ed o accu a ely simula e he Basin’s complex e ain and shallow
cold pools. The small leng h scale o he cold pools equi es compu e models o un wi h a g id
spacing o less han 1 km. Running mo e han one simula ion a his esolu ion—i.e., o es ima e
he a iabili y o unce ain y o he u u e p edic ion wi h how di e en each simula ion is om he
o he s—exceeds p ac ical esou ces o ope a ional o ecas ing, bo h on a labo a o y and na ional-
cen e scale. Howe e , many simula ions wi h a ying ini ial alues a e equi ed o cap u e high-
impac , a e e en s.
2. Da a sca ci y p o ides an obs acle o iden i ying he " ipping poin " be ween condi ions ha do o
do no suppo pe sis en empe a u e in e sions. The o ma ion o he cold pools is sensi i e o
small changes in snow co e , p essu e, and wind, so small o ecas e o s in hese inpu s can lead
o comple ely missed e en s o oo many alse ala ms. I u he es ic s he abili y o machine-
lea ning me hods o “ ain” Cly a o p oduce be e o ecas s in u u e seasons. Mo e o his
discussion can be ound in Da ies e al. (2025).
7.2.3. Deli e ables o S akeholde s
E ec i e decision-making equi es o ecas s ha :
• P o ide ad ance wa ning a lead imes o up o 15 days; beyond his, he e is no bene i in any
me eo ological o ecas ing models due o he apid g ow h o e o s o e ime.
• Communica e con idence alongside p edic ions, i.e., dis inguishing "highly likely" om "possibly,
bu unce ain"
56
• Run e icien ly enough o un ou imes daily h oughou each win e wi h many pa allel
simula ions o be e cap u e a e e en s ha a e highly sensi i e o changes in snows o m
acks, o ins ance
• Remain anspa en o esea che s and use s so all pa ies unde s and wha d i es o ecas
changes, and o build us in he p edic ion model (i.e., educe he pe cep ion ha Ozone Ale
o ecas e s do no unde s and a “black box” and canno us when o ecas s a e use ul o no )
These needs mo i a e con inued de elopmen o Cly a . Ve sion 0.9, he de elopmen e sion a he
ime o w i ing, is documen ed echnically in an upcoming epo (CLYFAR 0.9 Resea ch o Ope a ions:
Win e ime Ozone Fo ecas s o U ah’s Uin a Basin, John R. Lawson, in p epa a ion).
7.3. Solu ion: Combining Expe Knowledge wi h Compu e P edic ions
7.3.1. P edic ion Sys em (Cly a ) O e iew
Cly a combines expe me eo ological knowledge wi h ensemble wea he o ecas s o p edic daily
maximum ozone concen a ions 1–15 days ahead. Ra he han simula ing chemical eac ions a , say,
kilome e -scale esolu ion, Cly a asks a simple ques ion: Gi en wha we know abou how wea he
d i es ozone in he Uin a Basin, how plausible is an ele a ed ozone e en unde hese o ecas
condi ions?
The sys em ope a es h ough six s ages:
1. Download ensemble wea he da a om NOAA's Global Ensemble Fo ecas Sys em (GEFS)—31
di e en o ecas scena ios un ou imes daily (Zhou e al., 2022)
2. P ocess me eo ological inpu s o ex ac Basin-wide ep esen a i e alues o snow dep h,
p essu e, wind, and sola adia ion
3. E alua e uzzy logic ules ha encode expe knowledge abou how hese wea he condi ions ela e
o ozone p oduc ion (Dubois and P ade, 1988)
4. Gene a e possibili y alues ep esen ing he plausibili y o ou ozone ca ego ies: backg ound
(app ox. <40 ppb), mode a e (40–60 ppb), ele a ed (60–80 ppb), and ex eme (>80 ppb)
5. Join a ious s a is ics o quan i y o ecas unce ain y (con idence) a ising om di e en wea he
scena ios ha he o ecas e s ha e in hand
6. P oduce isualiza ion p oduc s, including hea maps and me eog ams, o he Ozone Ale p og am
and BasinWx.com websi e
7.3.2. Communica ion o Risk
T adi ional o ecas s p o ide a single numbe : "Tomo ow's maximum ozone will be 58 ppb" o "The e's
a 40% chance o exceeding 70 ppb." The Ozone Ale p og am also issues ou looks wi h hese o ecas
amoun s in mind. Howe e , hese s a emen s hide impo an in o ma ion abou con idence. A 40%
p obabili y de i ed om eliable da a wi h known unce ain ies is undamen ally di e en om a 40%
guess when he model has ne e seen simila condi ions (Lawson 2024).
Cly a uses possibili y heo y, which is a ma hema ical amewo k o analyzing a sys em wi h
incomple e knowledge. I is use ul when we ha e so li le da a in ou a chi es ha pe cen ages a e
57
un eliable. To make hese dis inc ions explici , and ins ead o o cing e e y hing in o p obabili ies ha
mus sum o 100%, possibili y heo y asks wo sepa a e ques ions:
• How plausible is his ou come? (Possibili y: 0 = impossible, 1 = comple ely consis en wi h
cu en knowledge)
• How ine i able is his ou come? (Necessi y: 0 = many al e na i es emain iable, 1 = his mus
happen)
C ucially, when he sys em encoun e s me eo ological condi ions ou side i s knowledge base— o
example, con lic ing inpu s whe e snow is p esen bu sola insola ion is s ong (i.e., snow should
mel )—i may signal his explici ly as igno ance a he han a bi a ily assigning p obabili ies.
7.4. How I Wo ks: F om Wea he Da a o Ozone Fo ecas
7.4.1. S ep 1: Rep esen a i e Wea he Values
GEFS p o ides g id-le el o ecas s ac oss he Basin e e y 3 hou s o 16 days. Cly a collapses his spa ial
in o ma ion in o single ep esen a i e alues o he Basin, a he han ine-g idded alues ha canno
be alida ed in he eal wo ld. Ou agg ega ion choices e lec physical unde s anding: ozone p oduc ion
is d i en by widesp ead (no localized) snow co e , a mo e “peaked” p essu e (no simply a daily
a e age), and a ep esen a i e alue o incoming sola adia ion.
7.4.2. S ep 2: Fuzzy Membe ship Func ions
Me eo ological alues ge ansla ed in o deg ees o " u hiness" o linguis ic ca ego ies (Lawson and
Lyman, 2024). Fo example:
• Wind o 1 m/s is "comple ely calm" (membe ship = 1.0)
• Wind o 3 m/s is "somewha calm, somewha b eezy" (membe ship = 0.5 o each)
• Wind o 5 m/s is "comple ely b eezy" (membe ship = 1.0)
These smoo h ansi ions encode h eshold unce ain y. This is in ui i e: he e is no sha p cu o whe e
"calm" becomes "b eezy" (Zadeh, 1996). The ansi ion wid hs and posi ions come om obse a ional
case s udies o his o ical ozone e en s and a e con inuously used o calib a e hese unc ions.
7.4.3. S ep 3: Fuzzy Rule E alua ion
Six expe -de i ed ules link wea he condi ions o ozone ou comes. Fo example:
Rule 4: IF snow is su icien AND wind is calm AND p essu e is s ong AND sola is high THEN ozone is
ex eme
Each ule's "ac i a ion le el" equals he minimum membe ship ac oss i s condi ions— he weakes link in
he chain. All ac i a ed ules o a gi en ozone ca ego y combine using he OR ope a ion ( aking he
maximum). This mul i- ule s uc u e allows di e en wea he pa hways o p oduce simila ozone
ou comes, can cope wi h con lic ing e idence, and is hones abou his igno ance.
64
Figu e 8-3. A abbed placeholde o AI o e iews a di e en complexi y le els o a ious s akeholde s
8.4. Roadmap
8.4.1. S abili y Tes ing (No 2025)
This is a so launch, which will in ol e pos ing on social media and aking commen s om he public
and key s akeholde s. Ou aim is o a low numbe o eliable ea u es a his s age due o ongoing
s abili y es s and occasional, ine i able down ime due o bugs.
8.4.2. Full Launch (Dec 2025)
Ou goal is o a ull launch by 1 Decembe o suppo Ozone Ale wi h deepe di es in o u u e and
pas e en s o suppo emails sen as pa o he p og am. This will be done in andem wi h social
ou each ideos ela ed o Ozone Ale .
8.4.3. Con inuing Feedback om S akeholde s
Du ing and a e he ull launch, we welcome eedback ha allows us o lea n s akeholde needs. The
eam uses a codebase e sioning sys em and mode n bes p ac ices, so a pa allel websi e could be
launched i necessa y o ial o oll back changes. The eam can also in e nally weak a de elopmen o
in e media e eedback du ing de elopmen . This can be done publicly o u he commen by mo e
echnologically-minded use s.
8.5. Commen on s uden in ol emen
Due o he apid de elopmen o AI “agen s” ha assis coding de elopmen , onboa ding o ou cu en
g oup o high-school s uden esea che s has been easie , gi en ha websi e de elopmen pa ly
became coding as na u al language (we call ha “CANAL”) h ough AI ools. Ini ial s uden -w i en
p oo -o -concep code was i e a ed: esea ch has shown his as ly imp o es ou eam’s pe o mance.
Hence, no only ha e we lowe ed he ba o a as e u n-on-in es men o s uden s such as Michael
Da ies, an unde g adua e who published a i s -au ho esea ch pape his yea (Da ies e al., 2025), we

65
ha e also imp o ed p epa a ion o he nex -gene a ion cu ing-edge wo k o ce, whe he i be he e in
he Uin a Basin, in Logan, o beyond. We ain ou s uden s in he e hical, e icien use o AI.
8.6. Acknowledgemen s
This wo k was p ima ily unded by Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1 and he U ah Legisla u e. Some
s uden wages o he p ojec we e paid by an endowmen om Anada ko Pe oleum and he Bingham
Family Founda ion.
66
9. Uin a Basin Snow Shadow: Impac o Snow-Dep h Va ia ion on
Win e Ozone Fo ma ion
Au ho : Michael Da ies
9.1. In oduc ion
The Uin a Basin in eas e n U ah, USA, is subjec o in e mi en , ye se e e, episodes o ele a ed su ace
ozone concen a ions du ing win e , a phenomenon dis inc om ypical summe ime ozone p oblems.
This ai quali y issue a ises when speci ic me eo ological and geog aphic condi ions coincide. Following
hea y snow all, cold, dense ai lows d ain in o he Basin, o ming a pe sis en cold-ai pool
cha ac e ized by a empe a u e in e sion. This in e sion e ec i ely aps ozone p ecu so s—p ima ily
ola ile o ganic compounds and ni ogen oxides (NOx)—which a e emi ed mos ly by local oil and gas
indus y ope a ions.
Snow all is pa amoun o his sys em. The high e lec i i y, o albedo, o he snowpack e lec s incoming
sola adia ion, signi ican ly inc easing he amoun o ene gy a ailable o he a mosphe ic chemis y
ha leads o ozone o ma ion. This eedback loop can esul in ozone ha exceeds he U.S. Na ional
Ambien Ai Quali y S anda ds (NAAQS) h eshold o 70 ppb. Days wi h snow co e h oughou he Uin a
Basin can lead o unheal hy le els o ozone, while days wi h li le snow co e ne e lead o high ozone.
The Basin’s loca ion leewa d (downwind) o he Wasa ch Moun ains sugges s he po en ial exis ence o
a p ecipi a ion shadow o snow shadow—a egion o sha ply educed p ecipi a ion caused by subsiding,
d ie ai . This s udy was unde aken o gauge e idence o his snow shadow e ec and de e mine i
spa ial a ia ions in snow dep h ac oss he Basin loo impac ozone le els.
The ollowing is a summa y o he s udy. Full esul s om he s udy a e a ailable as a pee - e iewed
publica ion, (Da ies e al., 2025).
9.2. Backg ound
The mechanism o a p ecipi a ion shadow in ol es mois low ising o e high e ain (in his case, he
Wasa ch Range), causing cooling and condensa ion, wi h p ecipi a ion occu ing p edominan ly on he
windwa d side. The esul ing d ie ai hen descends on he leewa d side ( he Uin a Basin), wa ming
adiaba ically and supp essing p ecipi a ion. This would hypo he ically lead o less snow co e in he
wes e n Basin compa ed o he eas e n po ions.
Fo win e ozone o occu , se e al ac o s mus align: he loca ion mus be equa o wa d enough o
su icien sunligh bu polewa d enough (and/o a high enough ele a ion) o p ese e he snowpack; i
mus possess complex e ain o acili a e cold-pool o ma ion; and he e mus be p ecu so emissions
ha allow o ozone o ma ion chemis y.
The schema ic ep esen a ion o he Basin’s win e -ozone o ma ion (Figu e 9-1) shows he c i ical ole
o he pe sis en cold pool o e snow, which inc eases he pho oly ic pa hway o win e ime ozone.
67
Figu e 9-1. Schema ic ep esen a ion o win e ozone o ma ion in he Uin a Basin. Wes e ly low c ea es a
p ecipi a ion shadow leewa d o he Wasa ch Moun ains. The pe sis en cold pool o e snow inc eases
pho ochemis y, wi h high albedo enhancing pho ochemical eac ions ha lead o ozone p oduc ion om
apped ola ile o ganics (VOs) and ni ogen oxides (NOx).
9.3. Da a and Me hods
The s udy analyzed mul iple yea s o g ound-based snow dep h measu emen s, su ace ozone da a, and
me eo ological obse a ions om sou ces including he Synop ic Wea he eposi o y and he Bingham
Resea ch Cen e ’s own ai quali y ne wo k. Howe e , diagnosing he snow shadow and i s ine-scale
impac on ozone p o ed challenging due o pe asi e da a unce ain y in he u al, complex e ain.
9.3.1. Key Da a Challenges
Th ee p ima y da a challenges limi ed he analysis:
Rada Beam Blocking: The Uin a Basin is loca ed a om na ional NEXRAD si es ha p o ide ada
in o ma ion abou p ecipi a ion. The high e ain su ounding he Basin blocks he ada beam, causing
he beam o o e shoo shallow win e cold pools (100-500 m), esul ing in sys ema ic unde es ima ion
o snow all and conspicuous “ ada holes” in g idded p ecipi a ion p oduc s (Figu e 9-2).
Da a Spa si y: In si u me eo ological and chemis y senso da a a e spa se compa ed o u ban egions,
inadequa ely sampling he spa ial g adien s o snow dep h and ozone. The ew NOAA Coope a i e
S a ions ha exis in he Uin a Basin, o ins ance, epo snow dep h manually only once daily and wi h
coa se p ecision ( o he nea es 1 inch, o 2.5 cm).
Model Inadequacy: T adi ional Nume ical Wea he P edic ion (NWP) sys ems, such as he 13 km Ai
Quali y Model (AQM), a e o en ma hema ically incapable o esol ing he small-scale moun ain cold
pools c i ical o ozone o ma ion in he Uin a Basin, leading o missed high-ozone e en s. The Real-Time
Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) sys em, which inco po a es ada , also s uggles in his egion due o he
poo ada co e age and spa se su ace obse a ions.
68
Figu e 9-2. Rada beam heigh abo e g ound le el (AGL) om KGJX and KMTX NEXRAD si es a di e en il
angles (0.2°, 0.5°, 1.0°). Black a eas indica e egions whe e he ada beam is blocked by e ain, c ea ing
signi ican da a gaps in he Uin a Basin. The shallow win e cold pools (∼100 m) a e o en below he ada beam,
leading o sys ema ic unde es ima ion o p ecipi a ion.
9.4. Resul s
The analysis o case s udies con i med he es ablished link be ween snow and ozone: Basin s a ions
equen ly epo ed daily maximum ozone exceeding 70 ppb when widesp ead snow co e was p esen ,
a pa e n absen along he windwa d Wasa ch F on . This co obo a es he unde s anding ha snow
co e is a c i ical ac o o ele a ed win e ozone episodes (Figu e 9-3).
69
Figu e 9-3. Rela ionship be ween snow dep h and ozone concen a ion a h ee Uin a Basin moni o ing s a ions.
Sca e plo s show posi i e co ela ions a all si es (Ho sepool: = 0.647, Roose el : = 0.449, Cas le Peak: =
0.521; all p < 0.001). Colo s ep esen da a densi y on a loga i hmic scale. The black lines indica e linea
eg ession i s.
Howe e , he hypo hesis ega ding he ine-scale impac o he snow shadow could no be de ini i ely
con i med. The quan i a i e p ecipi a ion es ima es (QPE) de i ed om RTMA da a equen ly showed
nea -ze o accumula ion in he Basin du ing obse ed snow all e en s (Figu e 9-4 and Figu e 9-5). This
appa en lack o p ecipi a ion, which migh supe icially esemble a snow shadow, is ins ead likely an
a i ac o ada beam blocking and unde sampling. While some isual e idence sugges ed a wes - o-
eas snow dep h g adien consis en wi h a snow shadow, he se e e da a quali y issues p e en ed
obus spa ial analysis linking p ecipi a ion g adien s o ozone concen a ion pa e ns.
Figu e 9-4. To al weekly p ecipi a ion (mm) ac oss he Uin a Basin egion, showing po en ial e idence o a
p ecipi a ion shadow e ec leewa d o he Wasa ch Moun ains. O ange ma ke s indica e moni o ing s a ions
wi hin he Basin (Ho sepool, Roose el , Cas le Peak, Se en Sis e s) while black ma ke s show e e ence s a ions
in su ounding a eas. The educed p ecipi a ion in he wes e n Basin ela i e o he Wasa ch F on sugges s
o og aphic e ec s.

70
Figu e 9-5. Time se ies o ozone concen a ions (ppb) du ing Feb ua y 2023 a Uin a Basin s a ions (ma ked L o
leewa d) and windwa d e e ence s a ions (ma ked W). Leewa d s a ions (Ho sepool, Roose el , Cas le Peak)
show sus ained ele a ed ozone episodes exceeding 70 ppb, while windwa d s a ions (O em, P o o, Rose Pa k,
Lindon, Coppe iew) main ain lowe backg ound le els, demons a ing he localized na u e o win e ozone
o ma ion in he Basin.
9.5. Conclusions
The s udy acknowledges he exis ence o egional wisdom sugges ing a Uin a Basin snow shadow,
concep ually suppo ed by e idence o lowe humidi y and snow all leewa d o he Wasa ch Moun ains.
None heless, da a-quali y limi a ions a e subs an ial, hinde ing obus con i ma ion o he phenomenon
and i s ine-scale impac on ozone p oduc ion. High unce ain y s emming om ada gaps, spa se
su ace ne wo ks, and inhe en model limi a ions educes p edic i e and diagnos ic capabili y.
To enhance ope a ional o ecas ing, p o ec public heal h, and ensu e indus y egula o y compliance,
u u e wo k mus ocus on mi iga ing hese da a de iciencies. P oposed s eps include deploying low-cos
snow-dep h senso s ha epo li e on o na ional ne wo ks and iden i ying new obse a ion si es o
be e cap u e he spa ial g adien s in his complex e ain.
9.6. Acknowledgemen s
This wo k was p ima ily unded by Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1 and he U ah Legisla u e. Some
s uden wages o he p ojec we e paid by an endowmen om Anada ko Pe oleum.
71
10. Unde s anding he Role o O ganic Compounds in Win e Ozone
Fo ma ion
Au ho s: Lokna h Dha and Se h Lyman
10.1. In oduc ion
Ele a ed g ound-le el ozone has become a conce n due o i s ha m ul e ec s on human heal h,
ege a ion, and clima e (Soa es and Sil a, 2022; Filippidou and Koukoulia a, 2011). While ozone
pollu ion is usually a summe ime p oblem, high ozone le els ha e been obse ed du ing win e in
se e al egions, including U ah’s Uin a Basin (Mans ield and Lyman, 2021). These e en s occu when
emissions om oil and gas ope a ions a e apped unde s ong empe a u e in e sions and eac in
sunligh o o m ozone. Snow co e enhances his p ocess by e lec ing mo e sunligh and s eng hening
he in e sion (Edwa ds e al., 2014). Non-me hane o ganic compounds (NMOC) and ni ogen oxides
(NOx) eleased due o oil and gas ac i i ies unde go pho ochemical eac ion o p oduce ozone. Howe e ,
he de ailed chemis y o NMOC in ol ed in win e ozone o ma ion has no been ho oughly
in es iga ed ye . Box models can be use ul o unde s and he chemis y o win e ozone o ma ion
because hey allow modi ica ion and adjus men o inpu s like emission a es and help o isola e key
chemical pa hways ha d i e ozone p oduc ion.
The ollowing is a summa y o a comple ed s udy ha is unde e iew o publica ion in A mosphe ic
Chemis y and Physics, a pee - e iewed jou nal.
10.2. Me hods
In his s udy, we used he F amewo k o 0-D A mosphe ic Modeling (F0AM) box model o be e
unde s and he chemis y behind win e ozone o ma ion in he Uin a Basin. The model was un wi h
ou chemical mechanisms o (a) iden i y which ca bonyl compounds a e mos impo an o ozone
p oduc ion and how hey o m, (b) es ima e emission ac o s o hose compounds, (c) e alua e hei
po en ial o p oduce ozone, and (d) es how di e en hyd oca bon g oups such as alkanes, alkenes,
alkynes, alcohols, and a oma ics in luence he o ma ion o ca bonyls and ozone. To ensu e he
simula ions e lec ed eal win e condi ions, we used measu ed concen a ions o ozone p ecu so s
collec ed a he Ho sepool moni o ing si e as model inpu s. A subse o he Mas e Chemical Mechanism
e sion 3.3.1 (MCM 331; Saunde s e al. (2003)) se ed as he base chemical mechanism. Resul s om
MCM 331 we e compa ed wi h h ee simpli ied, o “lumped,” mechanisms, including Regional
A mosphe ic Chemis y Mechanism e sion 2 (RACM2; Goli e al. (2013)), S a ewide Ai Pollu ion
Resea ch Cen e Chemical Mechanism e sion 07 (SAPRC07; Ca e (2010)), and Ca bon Bond Chemical
Mechanism e sion 6 (CB6; Ya wood e al. (2010)). We also included eac ions ha happen on pa icle
su aces (i.e., he e ogeneous chemis y) o see i hey change ozone le els unde win e condi ions.
Emission ac o s we e adjus ed un il modeled ca bonyl le els ma ched measu emen s collec ed a he
Ho sepool moni o ing si e. The inal emission ac o s we e a o nea ze o o mos compounds,
sugges ing ha mos ca bonyls we e seconda y pollu an s ha o med h ough chemical eac ions in
he a mosphe e, a he han being di ec ly emi ed. The simula ions co e ed 24–27 Feb ua y 2019, a
s ong in e sion pe iod wi h high ozone, using measu ed me eo ological and chemical da a as inpu s o
each model day.
72
10.3. Resul s
Du ing he simula ion pe iod, he measu ed daily maximum 8-hou a e age ozone le el eached 94 ppb,
exceeding he U.S. EPA s anda d o 70 ppb, and had a peak hou ly a e age alue o 102 ppb. The F0AM
box model using he de ailed MCM 3.3.1 mechanism success ully ep oduced hese high alues,
es ima ing a maximum o 107 ppb (1-hou a e age) on he ou h day. Among he simpli ied
mechanisms, SAPRC07 p edic ed 111 ppb, RACM2 p edic ed 100 ppb, and CB6 p edic ed 122 ppb,
showing ha all mechanisms cap u ed he obse ed ozone buildup du ing s ong win e in e sions.
As shown in Figu e 10-1, model simula ions wi h MCM 3.3.1 showed ha o maldehyde was he
dominan con ibu o o win e ozone p oduc ion, accoun ing o nea ly 50% o he o al ozone o med
om ca bonyl compounds. Ace aldehyde was he second mos impo an con ibu o , wi h an impac o
0.06 ppb/h on he ozone p oduc ion a e. In con as , benzaldehyde educed ozone o ma ion, ac ing as
a compound ha slows down he p ocess. The MCM 3.3.1, SAPRC07, and RACM2 mechanisms
displayed simila beha io , consis en ly iden i ying o maldehyde and ace aldehyde as he mos
in luen ial ca bonyls in win e ozone chemis y. The CB6 mechanism, howe e , g ouped mos ca bonyls
in o a gene ic class called “ke ones,” leading o highe es ima ed con ibu ions om his ca ego y.
Figu e 10-1. Impac o di e en ca bonyl compounds on ozone p oduc ion a e.
All chemical mechanisms also iden i ied alkanes as he main p ecu so s o o ming mos ca bonyl
compounds, such as ace aldehyde, me hac olein, and benzaldehyde. Howe e , he o ma ion o
o maldehyde was in luenced by mul iple g oups o o ganic compounds. O e all, hyd oca bons om oil
and gas ac i i ies, especially ligh alkanes, play a key ole in p oducing ca bonyls ha con ibu e o
win e ozone o ma ion.
Consis en ac oss all mechanisms, alkanes we e ound o be he mos in luen ial hyd oca bons d i ing
win e ozone o ma ion (Figu e 10-2). In MCM 3.3.1, inc easing alkane le els by 50% aised he ozone
p oduc ion a e by abou 0.3 ppb/h on a e age. A oma ics we e he second mos impo an g oup,
ollowed by alkenes and alkynes. Al hough ligh alkanes eac mo e slowly han hese o he hyd oca bon
g oups, hey domina e emissions om oil and gas ope a ions in he Uin a Basin and accoun o mos o
he chemical eac ions ha gene a e ozone and i s p ecu so s.
73
Figu e 10-2: Sensi i i y o p ima ily-emi ed o ganic compound g oups o he ozone p oduc ion a e.
10.4. Conclusion
This s udy iden i ied o maldehyde as he mos impo an ca bonyl compound d i ing win e ozone
p oduc ion in he Uin a Basin, ollowed by ace aldehyde. Alkanes we e ound o be he main p ecu so s
o he o ma ion o bo h ca bonyl compounds and ozone, wi h a oma ics also con ibu ing signi ican ly.
Among he es ed mechanisms, SAPRC07 pe o med he mos simila ly o MCMV331 in ep esen ing
win e ozone chemis y, while CB6 was he leas simila . These indings emphasize he ole o emissions
om oil and gas ac i i ies in win e ozone o ma ion.
10.5. Cu en and Fu u e Wo k
Cu en ly, we a e wo king on a p ojec ha aims o imp o e unde s anding o win e ozone o ma ion in
he Uin a Basin by eplica ing much o he wo k desc ibed abo e wi h CMAQ, a 3D pho ochemical
model. The goal o his wo k is o simula e he pe iod o Feb ua y 2013 using CMAQ, along wi h
emission ou pu s om he SMOKE emissions model, wi h p e ious WRF me eo ological inpu s ha
include e ical nudging o be e cap u e in e sion s eng h and s abili y. So a , we ha e comple ed he
se up o SMOKE and CMAQ, gene a ed emission ou pu s o di e en sec o s, and me ged hem in o a
CMAQ- eady inpu ile. Fo his p ojec , we a e using RACM2 as he base chemical mechanism. The nex
s ep is o un he CMAQ model wi h hese emissions and compa e he simula ed esul s wi h
obse a ions, ollowed by a ge ed modi ica ions and e inemen s based on he model’s pe o mance.
In he u u e, we plan o es di e en chemical mechanisms and assess how well each ep esen s
win e ime chemis y and ozone p oduc ion in he Basin. We a e also planning o pe o m sensi i i y
analysis o ca bonyls and ozone o changes in a ious o ganic compound g oups, ollowing a simila
app oach o ou comple ed F0AM s udy, o obse e how hese changes a ec ozone and key ca bonyls.
We will also explo e NOx e sus NMOC sensi i i y o be e unde s and how p ecu so emissions con ol
win e ozone o ma ion. This u u e wo k will p o ide a b oade chemical pe spec i e and help e ine
s a egies o imp o ing ai quali y in he Uin a Basin.
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12.2. P ojec Impac s
Du ing his epo ing pe iod, majo p og ess was made in sys em p og amming, SOP de elopmen , and
es ing. Key accomplishmen s include:
• P og amming and SOP de elopmen : USU Eas e n s uden Amb ia Miglio i inalized he
p og amming wo k low and au ho ed S anda d Ope a ing P ocedu es (SOPs) o se up,
calib a ion, and ield ope a ions.
• D one downwash es ing: Comple ed con olled “smoke es ” ligh s o e alua e how d one
p opelle downwash a ec s me hane plume mo emen and measu emen accu acy.
• Da a isualiza ion de elopmen : Began de eloping a eal- ime isualiza ion sys em o mapping
me hane concen a ions du ing ligh and pos - ligh 3D ende ing o emission da a.
• S uden engagemen and aining: Th ee s uden pilo s om he UAS p og am pa icipa ed in
sys em p og amming, in eg a ion, and es ing, gaining hands-on expe ience in en i onmen al
d one applica ions. A new s uden d one pilo was hi ed o suppo upcoming ield campaigns
(S uden s included Sam Dupiax, Amb ia Miglio i, and James Pe e son).
These accomplishmen s ha e laid he ounda ion o a eliable, ield-deployable me hane moni o ing
pla o m (Figu e 12-2) ha enhances da a accu acy and ope a ional e iciency. The p ojec also suppo s
s uden lea ning and wo k o ce de elopmen in d one-based en i onmen al moni o ing echnologies
(Figu e 12-3).
Figu e 12-2. Bingham Resea ch Cen e ’s me hane emissions measu emen d one, which was designed and buil
by s uden s.

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Figu e 12-3. D . Se h Lyman and s uden Ka Lee Zage assessing he Sensi me hane analyze ’s inle po a e a
smoke bomb down-wash es .
12.3. Manual Fligh Skills and Pa e n Tes ing
Manual ligh skills played a c i ical ole in he de elopmen and es ing phases o he me hane
moni o ing sys em. Using he DJI Ma ice 600 pla o m, ou eam conduc ed a se ies o Visual Line o
Sigh (VLOS) ligh s o e alua e plume de ec ion accu acy ac oss a ious ligh pa e ns. These included
pa allel ansec s, o bi al ligh s, and expanding squa e pa e ns a al i udes anging om 20 o 50 ee
Abo e G ound Le el (AGL). Each pa e n was manually lown o simula e eal-wo ld condi ions and
assess he d one’s esponsi eness, plume e ec s, and senso s abili y. These manual ope a ions allow
o eal- ime adjus men s based on plume beha io and e ain a iabili y, as well as on c ew expe ise.
The expanding squa e pa e n eme ged as he mos e ec i e o cap u ing me hane concen a ions
a ound emission sou ces, o e ing spa ial co e age, epea abili y, and e en scalabili y.
These manual ligh es s we e in o med by aining p o ocols om U ah S a e Uni e si y’s Unmanned
Ai c a Sys ems (UAS) P og am, which emphasizes hands-on ligh expe ience. S uden s in he p og am
lea n o manually pilo d ones h ough s uc u ed labs ha include bo h ixed-wing and mul i o o
si ua ions in a a ie y o applica ions. The cu iculum p io i izes manual ligh p o iciency o p epa e
s uden s o dynamic ield condi ions and di ec ly suppo ed ou p ojec , as s uden pilo s applied hei
skills o execu e p ecise ligh pa hs and adap o plume mo emen du ing es ing.
By in eg a ing manual ligh expe ise wi h senso echnology, he p ojec no only ad anced me hane
de ec ion capabili ies bu also p o ided aluable expe ien ial lea ning o s uden esea che s. These
skills will be c i ical as he sys em mo es in o ield deploymen phases ac oss ac i e oil and gas si es.
12.4. Fu u e Wo k
The nex phase o he p ojec will ocus on calib a ion, alida ion, and ield deploymen :
• Calib a ion and alida ion: Finalize es ing using ce i ied calib a ion gases and a mass low
con olle o simula e con olled emission a es. We will elease me hane a known a es om
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UBTech’s non- unc ional oil and gas equipmen o simula e emissions om ac ual oil and gas
equipmen , assessing sys em accu acy ac oss mul iple emission poin s.
• So wa e and eal- ime p ocessing: Comple e p og amming o a da a p ocessing sys em capable
o in eg a ing GPS, me eo ological, and chemical da a o calcula e emission luxes using he
mass balance me hod ou lined by Gål alk e al. (2021).
• Field deploymen s: Es ablish collabo a ions wi h egional ene gy companies o conduc on-si e
me hane emission measu emen s om ac i e oil and gas acili ies.
• Visualiza ion and epo ing: Finalize he 3D isualiza ion and pos - ligh analysis ools o suppo
da a in e p e a ion and epo ing o egula o y and esea ch use.
The p ojec emains on ack o comple e sys em alida ion and begin ope a ional ield measu emen s
wi hin ea ly 2026. Once ully implemen ed, his d one-based me hane moni o ing sys em will p o ide an
e icien , scalable, and cos -e ec i e app oach o emissions de ec ion—ad ancing bo h scien i ic
esea ch and p ac ical en i onmen al managemen .
12.5. Acknowledgemen s
This p ojec was unded by he U ah Legisla u e and Uin ah Special Se ice Dis ic 1.
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13. Sa elli e-based Remo e Sensing and In e ac i e Modeling o
Emissions
Au ho s: Colleen Jones and Gus Williams (BYU)
13.1. Backg ound
Sa elli e-based emo e sensing o e s a powe ul, scalable means o quan i ying g eenhouse gas
emissions and de ec ing spa ial pa e ns o a mosphe ic me hane, ca bon dioxide, and ela ed
pollu an s o e la ge geog aphic a eas (Wilson e al., 2025). Unlike g ound- o d one-based sys ems,
sa elli e obse a ions enable consis en empo al and spa ial moni o ing ac oss en i e ene gy basins,
p o iding c i ical da a o emissions assessmen , egula o y compliance, and en i onmen al policy
de elopmen (Haske e al., 2024).
Recen ad ances in cloud-based pla o ms such as Google Ea h Engine (GEE) ha e ans o med he way
scien is s p ocess and analyze la ge-scale geospa ial da a (Vijayakuma e al., 2024). GEE in eg a es
global sa elli e a chi es wi h ad anced compu ing powe and coding ools, enabling au oma ed
wo k lows o image p ocessing, classi ica ion, and end analysis (Rahimoon e al., 2025). These
capabili ies allow esea che s o isualize emission sou ces, quan i y changes h ough ime, and
co ela e emissions wi h indus ial ac i i y, me eo ological pa e ns, and land use cha ac e is ics (Liu e
al., 2023).
This p ojec builds upon he Bingham Resea ch Cen e ’s d one-based moni o ing p og am by ex ending
i s spa ial and empo al each h ough sa elli e-based analysis. Conduc ed in collabo a ion wi h D . Gus
Williams o B igham Young Uni e si y’s Ci il and En i onmen al Enginee ing Depa men , he p ojec
in eg a es enginee ing modeling wi h sa elli e da a analy ics o ad ance emission quan i ica ion and
isualiza ion.
Speci ically, i aims o de elop an in e ac i e, web-based modeling ool ha in eg a es sa elli e da a,
emission a e es ima ion algo i hms, and me eo ological da a. The ool will be buil using GEE, Py hon,
and web-based dashboa ds o suppo s akeholde s, esea che s, and policy make s in acking
emissions and e alua ing mi iga ion s a egies.
13.2. P ojec Impac s
Du ing his epo ing pe iod, signi ican p og ess was made in da a acquisi ion, coding wo k low
de elopmen , and in e ac i e model design. Key accomplishmen s include:
• Sa elli e da a in eg a ion: Es ablished a cloud-based da a eposi o y wi hin GEE, inco po a ing
Sen inel-5P (TROPOMI), Landsa 8–9, and MODIS da ase s o me hane (CH₄), ni ogen dioxide
(NO₂), ca bon dioxide (CO₂), and ozone (O₃) de ec ion. Baseline da a laye s o Uin a Basin oil
and gas wells we e compiled and spa ially aligned wi h exis ing d one and g ound
measu emen s.
• Algo i hm and code de elopmen : De eloped ini ial Py hon and Ja aSc ip sc ip s wi hin he GEE
pla o m o de ec emission ho spo s, calcula e plume dispe sion indices, and pe o m ime-
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se ies analyses o me hane concen a ions. These sc ip s enable au oma ed da a p ocessing and
isualiza ion di ec ly wi hin he GEE in e ace.
• P o o ype in e ac i e app: Designed a web-based applica ion amewo k ha allows use s o
explo e emission da a h ough an in ui i e dashboa d. The p o o ype in eg a es sa elli e
image y, emission a e es ima es, and g ound alida ion da ase s om USU Eas e n’s d one
campaigns.
• S uden in ol emen and aining: One s uden om BYU’s Da a Science p og am con ibu ed o
coding, da a managemen , and app in e ace design. Thei wo k p o ided aluable hands-on
expe ience in emo e sensing analy ics, en i onmen al modeling, and cloud compu ing.
• C oss-Scale In eg a ion: The p ojec es ablished a da a usion wo k low linking d one-de i ed
me hane measu emen s wi h sa elli e-based concen a ion maps, c ea ing a mul i- esolu ion
moni o ing sys em o alida ing and e ining emission es ima es.
These achie emen s ma k a c i ical s ep owa d de eloping a comp ehensi e, scalable emission
moni o ing sys em ha me ges ield da a and sa elli e analy ics, s eng hening U ah’s leade ship in
applied en i onmen al echnology.
13.3. Fu u e Wo k
Nex s eps will expand da a in eg a ion, s eng hen collabo a ions, and ad ance me hane measu emen
s anda diza ion.
• In eg a ed modeling: Combine d one, g ound, and sa elli e obse a ions o alida e emission
es ima es o me hane (CH₄), ni ogen dioxide (NO₂), ca bon dioxide (CO₂), and ozone (O₃).
Ad anced dispe sion algo i hms de eloped in Google Ea h Engine (GEE) and Py hon will
imp o e emission mapping and empo al end analysis.
• In e ac i e dashboa d: Deploy a s akeholde -accessible dashboa d isualizing sa elli e and UAS
da a o emission acking, egula o y compliance, and mi iga ion planning.
• Pa ne ship expansion: Con inue collabo a ion wi h D . Gus Williams (BYU Ci il Enginee ing) o
in eg a e enginee ing-based a mosphe ic dispe sion models wi h emo e sensing da a,
enhancing emission accu acy and s uden esea ch oppo uni ies.
• IEEE me hane s anda d de elopmen : Conduc ield es s a he USU Bingham Resea ch Cen e
o e alua e GETBag® calib a ion a ge s o quan i a i e me hane measu emen . These es s—
conduc ed wi h he IEEE GRSS Me hane Wo king G oup (USU, BYU, and Condo Calib a ion
Se ices)—will p o ide ounda ional da a owa d es ablishing an IEEE S anda d o ai bo ne and
spacebo ne me hane senso calib a ion.
This phase will deli e an in eg a ed sa elli e–d one emission moni o ing amewo k, suppo IEEE
s anda diza ion o me hane quan i ica ion, and p o ide hands-on aining o USU and BYU s uden s in
ad anced emo e sensing and a mosphe ic moni o ing.
13.4. Acknowledgemen s
Time spen by Bingham Resea ch Cen e s a on his p ojec is unded by he U ah Legisla u e, Uin ah
Special Se ice Dis ic 1, and IEEE GRSS.
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14. Public Lands Ini ia i e – Cos -Bene i Analysis o Ca ail Con ol
a S ewa Lake
Au ho s: Colleen Jones and Lisa Boyd
14.1. Backg ound
Ca ails (Typha spp.) can domina e we land ecosys ems, educing biodi e si y and al e ing habi a
s uc u e (Ap elbaum, 1985). E ec i e managemen is needed o main ain a balance be ween ca ail
co e and open wa e o suppo o e all we land ecosys em heal h (Ball, 1990). T adi ional he bicide
ea men s, while e ec i e, a e cos ly and non-selec i e, po en ially impac ing non- a ge species.
Al e na i e me hods, such as con olled bu ns o g azing by goa s, may o e mo e sus ainable and cos -
e icien op ions (Wwa, 2018).
As pa o he doc o al disse a ion esea ch a U ah S a e Uni e si y, Lisa Boyd is e alua ing and
compa ing ca ail managemen s a egies using small expe imen al plo s dis ibu ed h oughou a
we land (Figu e 14-1). T ea men s include con olled bu ns, he bicide applica ions, goa g azing, and
combina ions o hese app oaches. The s udy es s he hypo hesis ha sp ing ea men s, applied p io
o looding, a e as e ec i e as all ea men s ollowing lake d ainage. Remo e sensing echnologies,
including mul ispec al sa elli e and d one image y, a e used o moni o ca ail canopy co e and open
wa e ex en .
This 18-mon h p ojec is scheduled o conclude in Decembe 2025. All da a collec ion has been
comple ed, and da a analysis is unde way. Findings om his wo k will o m one chap e o Lisa Boyd’s
disse a ion and be submi ed o pee - e iewed publica ion. D . Doug Ramsey (Logan Campus) and D .
Colleen Jones (Ve nal Campus, Bingham Resea ch Cen e ) p o ide men o ship and expe ise in emo e
sensing and da a analysis o he p ojec , and an unde g adua e esea ch assis an suppo ed ield da a
collec ion.

86
Figu e 14-1. P ojec map.
14.2. P ojec Impac s
This p ojec ad ances sus ainable we land managemen by e alua ing cos -e ec i e and
en i onmen ally esponsible me hods o con ol ca ail popula ions while main aining biodi e si y and
open wa e habi a . By educing eliance on non-selec i e he bicides, he p ojec minimizes ecological
and inancial impac s, con ibu ing o heal hie we land ecosys ems. The in eg a ion o con olled bu ns,
g azing, he bicide applica ion, and combina ions o hese me hods p o ides land manage s wi h
p ac ical ools o balance ege a ion con ol wi h ecological p ese a ion. In addi ion o ecological
bene i s, he p ojec os e s he aining and men o ship o s uden s in applied esea ch, we land
managemen , ield echniques, and emo e sensing echnologies. The indings will in o m b oade
we land managemen s a egies, suppo pee - e iewed publica ions, and con ibu e a chap e o Lisa
Boyd’s doc o al disse a ion, ensu ing ha he knowledge gene a ed is accessible o bo h he scien i ic
communi y and na u al esou ce manage s.
87
14.3. Fu u e Wo k
Resul s om his p ojec will in o m b oade we land managemen s a egies and may be expanded o
con ol o he in asi e we land species. Da a will suppo publica ions o guide manage s in sus ainable
ca ail con ol and may lead o addi ional s udies on long- e m impac s o combined ea men s unde
a ying hyd ological and ecological condi ions. Ongoing collabo a ions s emming om his p ojec will
con inue o p o ide men o ship, s uden aining, and in eg a ion o emo e sensing echniques in o
applied ecological esea ch.
14.4. Acknowledgemen s
This p ojec is unded by he U ah Public Lands Ini ia i e.
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15. Public Lands Ini ia i e – P ecision Sp ay D one o In asi e Plan
Species a S ewa Lake
Au ho s: Colleen Jones, Shalyn D ake, and Lisa Boyd
15.1. Backg ound
S ewa Lake is a c i ical we land complex loca ed nea he G een Ri e in Uin ah Coun y, U ah,
suppo ing di e se wildli e and p o iding i al spawning and ea ing habi a o wo ede ally
endange ed ish species— he azo back sucke (Xy auchen exanus) and bony ail chub (Gila elegans)
(Modde and I ing, 1998). The ecological in eg i y o his sys em depends on main aining a mosaic o
open wa e and eme gen ege a ion, pa icula ly ca ails (Typha spp.), which o e essen ial co e bu
can become o e ly dominan when unmanaged (Webbe , 2013). Enc oachmen by ca ails and o he
in asi e plan s—such as Canada his le (Ci sium a ense), Russian knapweed (Rhapon icum epens), and
whi e op (Lepidium d aba)—has educed open-wa e habi a , es ic ed wa e low, and deg aded
na i e biodi e si y a S ewa Lake.
T adi ional con ol me hods ha e elied hea ily on b oadcas he bicide applica ions using glyphosa e
and simila compounds (Solbe g and Higgins, 1993). While e ec i e in educing biomass, hese
app oaches a e cos ly, non-selec i e, and pose ecological isks h ough chemical uno , impac s o non-
a ge ege a ion, and po en ial long- e m en i onmen al pe sis ence (Riaz e al., 2021). Mechanical
con ol me hods, such as mowing o exca a ion, a e limi ed by accessibili y and labo in ensi y.
Consequen ly, manage s ha e sough a mo e sus ainable, a ge ed, and da a-d i en app oach o es o e
and main ain habi a balance a S ewa Lake.
To add ess hese challenges, a wo-yea esea ch and managemen p ojec (2024–2025) was
implemen ed using p ecision sp ay d ones o manage in asi e species ac oss app oxima ely 100 ac es o
he S ewa Lake we land complex (Figu e 15-1). D ones equipped wi h RTK-GPS guidance, a iable
nozzle sys ems, and ad anced senso s enabled highly a ge ed he bicide applica ions o dense ca ail
s ands and pa ches o seconda y in asi es. P e- and pos - ea men moni o ing included ae ial
mul ispec al image y, ege a ion densi y assessmen s, and habi a condi ion mapping. T ea men s
we e e alua ed o bo h e ec i eness and ecological esponse, including open-wa e eco e y,
ege a i e di e si y, and habi a quali y o aqua ic species.
This p ojec complemen s an ongoing cos -bene i analysis o ca ail con ol s a egies and p o ides an
impo an applied esea ch componen o adap i e we land managemen . The wo k con ibu es
di ec ly o Lisa Boyd’s PhD disse a ion, o ming wo disse a ion chap e s and suppo ing a leas wo
pee - e iewed publica ions ocused on p ecision he bicide applica ion and we land es o a ion
ou comes.
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Figu e 15-1. Map o Ae ial Sp ay T ea men Polygons comple ed on 27 Sep embe 2025 a S ewa Lake.
15.2. Moni o ing and Da a Collec ion
Moni o ing was designed o e alua e ea men e ec i eness and ecological esponse using a
combina ion o d one-based emo e sensing and ield-based assessmen s.
• Ae ial image y and analysis: A comple e mul ispec al p esc ip ion ligh was conduc ed on 15
Sep embe 2025, gene a ing maps o a ge ed he bicide applica ion and ege a ion analysis
using an eBeeX ixed-wing d one wi h dual mul ispec al and RGB came as. Image y was
p ocessed in Pix4D ields o gene a e NDVI and ege a ion classi ica ion maps ha quan i ied
changes in ca ail co e age, open-wa e a ea, and in asi e species dis ibu ion using he
wo k low in Figu e 15-3.
• He bicide applica ion da a: On 27 Sep embe 2025, d ones ea ed 13 ac es o noxious weeds,
applying p ecision- a ge ed he bicide o minimize non- a ge exposu e.
• Field day wo kshop and aining: On 27 Sep embe 2025, in pa ne ship wi h USU Ex ension and
WildAss Ae ial, a hands-on ield day was held o ain six pa icipan s in d one ope a ion, da a
cap u e, and mapping wo k lows. Pa icipan s gained expe ience wi h ligh planning, image y
collec ion, and basic analysis o ag icul u al and en i onmen al applica ions (Figu e 15-2).
• G ound and habi a alida ion: Field su eys a ixed plo s measu ed pe cen co e o noxious
weeds and na i e ege a ion o alida e d one image y and ain AI models o au oma ed
ege a ion classi ica ion. These da a we e combined wi h obse a ions o wa e quali y,
hyd ologic connec i i y, and ege a ion eg ow h o assess o e all habi a heal h and condi ions
suppo ing endange ed ish species.
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18. Ve i ica ion o A mosphe ic Me cu y Redox Ra es
Au ho s: Colleen Jones and Se h Lyman
18.1. Backg ound/Goals
This ou -yea p ojec in es iga es how me cu y in he a mosphe e changes o m and mo es h ough
he en i onmen . The esea ch ocuses on imp o ing ou unde s anding o how me cu y is oxidized—
ans o med in o species ha can deposi mo e easily in o ecosys ems. The p ojec b ings oge he ou
uni e si ies o de elop new ools, collec high-quali y da a, and imp o e global models ha p edic
me cu y mo emen and deposi ion (Selin e al., 2007; Lyman and Ja e, 2012; Elgia e al., 2025; Shah e
al., 2021).
18.2. P ojec Accomplishmen s
We ha e comple ed he ollowing asks o he p ojec :
• Buil and es ed a la ge (35 m³) en i onmen al chambe o s udy me cu y chemical eac ions
unde con olled condi ions.
• Upg aded ins umen s o p ecise measu emen o di e en o ms o me cu y.
• Began compu e modeling o help in e p e expe imen al esul s and guide nex s eps.
• Coo dina ed esea ch plans ac oss collabo a ing uni e si ies.
• T ained six s uden s ( ou unde g adua es and wo PhD candida es) in expe imen al design,
da a collec ion, and modeling.
18.3. Dissemina ion
Th ee abs ac s we e submi ed o p esen a ion a he 2025 AGU Fall Mee ing in New O leans,
highligh ing ea ly indings om he collabo a i e chambe s udies.
1. Jones, C. P., & Lyman, S. N. Collabo a i e Chambe S udy o Me cu y Redox Chemis y
In ol ing B , O₃, NOₓ, OH, and CH₄.
2. Haskins, J., Coley, J., Lyman, S. N., & Jones, C. P. No el Mechanis ic Insigh s om a
Me cu y Oxida ion Chambe Expe imen .
3. Ha pe , A., Flowe day, C., Giauque, Z., Lowe, L., & Hansen, J. Quan i ying he Role o
A mosphe ic Oxidan s (OH, O, B ) in Me cu y Oxida ion Using an En i onmen al
Chambe .
18.4. Fu u e Wo k
Fu u e wo k includes:

97
• In eg a e new, alida ed chemical da a in o he GEOS-Chem global model o
imp o e me cu y o ecas s.
• Con inue expe imen s and s uden men o ing ac oss ins i u ions.
• Publish esul s and sha e indings a na ional con e ences.
18.5. Acknowledgemen s
This p ojec is unded by he U.S. Na ional Science Founda ion (awa d #2321378).
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19. Re e ences
Al a ez, R. A., Za ala-A aiza, D., Lyon, D. R., Allen, D. T., Ba kley, Z. R., B and , A. R., Da is, K. J., He ndon,
S. C., Jacob, D. J., and Ka ion, A.: Assessmen o me hane emissions om he US oil and gas supply chain,
Science, 361, 186-188, 2018.
Anneken, D., S iebich, R., DeWi , M. J., Klingshi n, C., and Co po an, E.: De elopmen o me hodologies
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