Co esponding au ho : Lamboni Ba ablinlè
Copy igh © 2025 Au ho (s) e ain he copy igh o his a icle. This a icle is published unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion Liscense 4.0.
Clima e a iabili y and he wa e -ene gy- ood nexus in he O i and Mono Basins, Wes
A ica
Lamboni Ba ablinlè 1, 3, * and Lawin Agnidé Emmanuel 2, 3
1 Depa men o physics and chemis y, Ecole No male Supé ieu e o A akpamé, Togo.
2 Labo a o y o Applied Hyd ology, Na ional Ins i u e o Wa e , Uni e si y o Abomey-Cala i, Benin.
3 In e na ional labo a o y o physics o a mosphe ic, hyd ology, hyd ome eo ology, clima e change and Ene gy, Uni e si y
o Abomey-Cala i, Benin.
Wo ld Jou nal o Ad anced Resea ch and Re iews, 2025, 27(02), 1571-1590
Publica ion his o y: Recei ed on 10 July 2025; e ised on 17 Augus 2025; accep ed on 19 Augus 2025
A icle DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.30574/wja .2025.27.2.2782
Abs ac
This s udy in es iga es he in e ac ions be ween en i onmen al and economic a iables in he Mono and O i basins,
ocusing on he Wa e -Ene gy-Food (WEF) Nexus om 1980 o 2020. Using ad anced machine lea ning and a i icial
in elligence echniques o s a is ical and g aphical analysis, he s udy explo es wa e in ensi y o ood p oduc ion and
ene gy gene a ion h ough scena io analysis, highligh ing ulne abili ies in wa e and ene gy sys ems unde u u e
p ojec ions. The esul s e eal signi ican co ela ions be ween en i onmen al a iables such as ain all, low, ene gy,
and ag icul u al yield, emphasizing he in e dependence be ween na u al esou ces and human ac i i ies. Howe e ,
no able di e ences eme ge be ween he wo basins. In he Mono Basin, domes ic wa e demand is p ojec ed o inc ease
signi ican ly by 2050, due o inc eased p essu e on wa e esou ces, pa icula ly d i en by popula ion g ow h and
clima e change impac s. In con as , he O i Basin, al hough expe iencing inc eased wa e demand, emains ela i ely
mo e s able due o mo e ad anced wa e esou ce managemen p ac ices and quicke adop ion o echnologies,
pa icula ly in i iga ion and ag icul u al p ac ices. Food and ene gy demand p ojec ions ollow a simila end, bu he
scena ios di e be ween he basins. In he Mono Basin, he Business as Usual (BAU) scena io p edic s s ong g ow h in
ood and ene gy demand, while he Technological Imp o emen (TI) scena io in he O i Basin sugges s a mo e
sus ainable pa h, p ima ily due o imp o ed ene gy e iciency and op imized wa e managemen . The analysis o he
WEF Nexus pe o mance h ough composi e indices also e eals signi ican di e ences be ween he wo basins. The
Mono Basin is mo e sensi i e o changes in he wa e , ene gy, and ood sec o s, making i mo e ulne able o clima e
change impac s and human p essu es. On he o he hand, he O i Basin shows highe esilience, la gely due o mo e
in eg a ed policies and p ac ices. Finally, he s udy p oposes a sus ainabili y index ha combines economic,
en i onmen al, and social ac o s o assess long- e m esou ce managemen sus ainabili y. This highligh s he need o
in eg a ed and c oss-sec o al policies ha should be ailo ed o he speci ic con ex s o bo h basins o ensu e he
esilience and sus ainabili y o esou ce sys ems in he Mono and O i basins.
keywo ds: En i onmen al and economic a iables; Wa e -Ene gy-Food Nexus; Mono-O i Ri e basins
1. In oduc ion
In sub-Saha an A ica, exposu e and ulne abili y o clima e isks a e no ably high ac oss c i ical economic sec o s.
Ex eme e en s, such as d ough s and loods, ha e highligh ed he scale o dis up ion (Ali & Lebel 2009; Bodian 2014).
Fo ins ance, he p olonged d ough om 1968 o 1995 in Wes A ica exempli ied he cascading impac s, including
widesp ead ood insecu i y, powe ou ages, and d inking wa e sho ages, which disp opo iona ely a ec ed small and
medium-sized en e p ises. Al hough economic de elopmen can educe po e y and dependency on clima e-sensi i e
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ag icul u e, ulne abili y o clima e shocks is likely o emain ele a ed in opical egions as asse s and economies
expand.
As hese clima e isks in ensi y, global challenges such as popula ion g ow h and u baniza ion u he s ain c i ical
nexus esou ces. In sub-Saha an A ica, he demand o hese esou ces is expec ed o inc ease signi ican ly, wi h
na ions s uggling o mee he ising demand o al eady sca ce esou ces in a sus ainable manne (Van I e sum e al.
2016). Many de eloping coun ies, ace conside able dispa i ies in access o i al esou ces like wa e , lea ing millions
wi hou su icien supply (Rasul & Sha ma, 2016; Finley e al., 2014). The impac s o clima e a iabili y, such as
dec eased ain all eliabili y and inc eased wa e demand a e especially p onounced in sec o s like ag icul u e and
ene gy p oduc ion, which a e essen ial o se e al na ional de elopmen agendas (Endo e al. 2015; Geb eyes e al. 2020).
Acco ding o Fe oukhi e al. (2015), by 2050, global ene gy demand is p ojec ed o double, while wa e and ood
demand will inc ease by 50%, d i en by he need o suppo an an icipa ed popula ion o 9 billion people
Gi en he inc easing p essu e on essen ial esou ces like wa e , ood, and ene gy, sus ainable managemen has become
c ucial o building esilience in egions mos ulne able o hese challenges (Pimen el e al. 2010; Ringle e al. 2013).
Simila ly, he ood sec o demands signi ican amoun s o wa e and ene gy in i s ope a ions. Addi ionally, ood has
been u ilized as a aw ma e ial in bio uel p oduc ion o bo h domes ic and indus ial pu poses (Fig. 1). These inhe en
in e dependencies c ea e a complex web o connec ions be ween wa e , ene gy, and ood esou ces. The Wa e -Ene gy-
Food (WEF) nexus o e s a comp ehensi e concep ual amewo k and app oach o ackling he in ica e and
mul i ace ed ela ionships in ol ed in he de elopmen o hese i al esou ces. The WEF nexus amewo k o e s a
holis ic app oach o unde s anding he complex in e dependencies and ade-o s among hese i al esou ces (Liu e
al. 2017; Wang e al. 2018; Moh a e al. 2016). This amewo k has gained a en ion as an e ec i e s a egy o achie e
sus ainable de elopmen goals and p omo e a g een economy, ollowing i s in oduc ion a he Bonn Nexus Con e ence
in 2011 (Ma in-Nagle e al. 2023).
Figu e 1 In e linkages be ween Sus ainable De elopmen Goals o wa e , ene gy and ood
The nexus app oach has since e ol ed o inco po a e addi ional ac o s, such as clima e change, in o i s scope, making
i a aluable ool o suppo ing ood secu i y and sus ainable de elopmen in sec o s like ag icul u e (UNECE 2017).
Acco ding o he FAO (2014), he nexus app oach add esses c ucial sus ainabili y goals, including ze o hunge (SDG2),
clean wa e and sani a ion (SDG6), and a o dable clean ene gy (SDG7) (Senzanje e al. 2022).
Recen esea ch has highligh ed he impo ance o in eg a ing LWEF nexus conside a ions in o policy and planning
amewo ks. Fo ins ance, And ews-Speed e al. (2023) emphasize ha a comp ehensi e app oach o esou ce
managemen can s eng hen communi y esilience o en i onmen al s esso s and imp o e hei adap i e capaci y.
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Addi ionally, Middle on e al. (2012) a gue ha e ec i e managemen o he nexus can lead o mo e equi able esou ce
dis ibu ion, he eby enhancing li elihoods and educing ulne abili ies in ulne able egions like wes A ica.
In Wes and Cen al A ica, ins i u ions such as he Nige Basin Nexus Dialogue ha e p omo ed he WEF nexus o guide
he in eg a ed managemen o ansbounda y esou ces and design policies aimed a holis ically add essing
de elopmen objec i es. These ini ia i es seek o enhance esou ce e iciency in ackling p essing issues such as ood
insecu i y, po e y, and unp edic able ain all pa e ns, which impac bo h ag icul u al p oduc i i y and ene gy
p oduc ion (Senzanje e al. 2022). Howe e , WEF- ela ed esea ch emains minimal in he Wes A ican con ex . I is
he e o e essen ial o conduc mo e s udies in his domain o be e unde s and he complex in e dependencies
be ween wa e , ene gy, and ood esou ces in he egion. Such esea ch is undamen al o de eloping e ec i e s a egies
o sus ainable esou ce managemen , add essing ulne abili ies, and enhancing esilience agains clima e change and
socio-economic challenges in Wes A ica.
The Mono Basin and O i Basins, loca ed in Wes A ica, exempli ies he c i ical need o in eg a ed managemen o LWEF
esou ces. hese Basins a e a i al ecological and economic zone ha aces signi ican challenges ela ed o wa e
sca ci y, land deg ada ion, and ood insecu i y, all exace ba ed by clima e a iabili y and socio-economic p essu es
(E nes e al. 2015, Lawin e al. 2019, Lamboni e al. 2019, Lamboni e al. 2024). Add essing hese challenges equi es a
deep unde s anding o how clima e, wa e , ene gy, and ood sys ems in e ac and a ec one ano he , especially in he
con ex o egional li elihoods.
The p ima y objec i e o his s udy is o assess he Wa e -Ene gy-Food (WEF) nexus and i s impac on local li elihoods
in he Mono and O i Basins h ough a scena io-based analysis. Speci ically, he s udy aims o:
• E alua e wa e in ensi y ac oss sec o s (ag icul u e, ene gy, and domes ic use) o de e mine he compe ing
demands and alloca ion e iciency wi hin he WEF nexus.
• Iden i y key ulne abili ies associa ed wi h clima e a iabili y, esou ce sca ci y, and socio-economic ac o s,
impac ing sus ainable de elopmen in he egion.
• De elop and apply sus ainabili y indices o quan i y he esilience and adap abili y o he WEF nexus o cu en
and u u e challenges.
• Analyze po en ial scena ios unde a ying en i onmen al, economic, and policy condi ions o p opose
ac ionable s a egies o imp o ing esou ce managemen and suppo ing li elihoods.
The esul s will p o ide a amewo k o policymake s, esea che s, and s akeholde s o enhance sus ainable p ac ices,
educe ulne abili ies, and os e in eg a ed esou ce managemen in he Mono and O i Basins.
2. Ma e ials and Me hods
2.1. S udy a ea
The Mono and O i Ri e Basins, si ua ed in Wes A ica (Fig. 2), o e a dis inc i e amewo k o analyzing he in e play
o Land, Wa e , Ene gy, and Food (LWEF) nexus esou ces. Bo h basins a e ansbounda y sys ems whe e communi ies
ely hea ily on na u al esou ces o hei li elihoods, pa icula ly h ough ag icul u e, ishing, and ene gy p oduc ion.
A compa a i e s udy o hese wo basins no only highligh s he unique challenges o each bu also enables a b oade
unde s anding o LWEF nexus dynamics, add essing c i ical issues ela ed o clima e change, popula ion p essu e, and
sus ainable esou ce managemen .
Wo ld Jou nal o Ad anced Resea ch and Re iews, 2025, 27(02), 1571-1590
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Figu e 2 S udy a ea
The Mono Ri e Basin, sha ed by Togo and Benin, co e s an a ea o app oxima ely 25,400 km² and lies be ween 06°16'
and 09°20' N and 0°42' and 2°25' E (Lamboni e al., 2024). I s opog aphy anges om highlands o coas al plains, and
i s opical clima e is shaped by i s p oximi y o he equa o . The basin exhibi s di e se soil ypes, wi h mo e e ile
lands concen a ed in he sou h and less p oduc i e soils in he no he n egions. The Mono Ri e se es as a c ucial
eshwa e sou ce, suppo ing bo h ag icul u e and o he na u al esou ce-based ac i i ies. The basin expe iences a
bimodal ain all pa e n in he sou h (wi h ainy seasons om Ma ch o July and om Sep embe o No embe ), while
he no he n egion has a unimodal pa e n, wi h a single ainy season om May o Oc obe . These seasonal a ia ions
c i ically in luence wa e a ailabili y o ag icul u al ac i i ies, domes ic usage, and ene gy p oduc ion. Howe e ,
clima e change has exace ba ed he a iabili y in ain all and i e low, leading o inc eased ins ances o d ough s and
loods, which ad e sely impac ag icul u al yields and li elihoods. The basin is home o o e wo million inhabi an s,
wi h a popula ion g ow h a e o 2.9% annually (WAEMU, 2006). The local economy is p edominan ly based on
ag icul u e, ishing, and ene gy gene a ion, wi h he Nangbé o Hyd oelec ic Dam being a i al in as uc u e ha
supplies elec ici y o bo h Togo and Benin. Despi e his, he egion aces pe sis en challenges such as limi ed access o
po able wa e , inadequa e enewable ene gy in as uc u e, and ecu en ood insecu i y. In his con ex , he LWEF
nexus plays a pi o al ole in ensu ing ood secu i y and sus ainable de elopmen . A s a egic app oach o managing
hese esou ces is essen ial o enhancing esilience agains en i onmen al and socio-economic p essu es, as well as
mi iga ing he impac s o clima e a iabili y and popula ion g ow h on he basin’s ecosys ems and communi ies.
The Vol a Ri e Basin, loca ed be ween 5°30' N and 14°30' N and 2°00' E and 5°30' W, spans app oxima ely 400,000
km² and a e ses six Wes A ican coun ies: Ghana, Bu kina Faso, Togo, Benin, Cô e d'I oi e, and Mali. I is one o he
mos signi ican i e sys ems in he egion, ed by majo ibu a ies including he Black Vol a, Whi e Vol a, and O i
i e s, which play a cen al ole in he p o ision o wa e o i iga ion, d inking, and ene gy p oduc ion. The Akosombo
Dam, loca ed on he Vol a Ri e in Ghana, is a key in as uc u e p o iding hyd oelec ic powe o Ghana and i s
neighbo ing coun ies. The Vol a Basin is home o an es ima ed 19 million people, wi h a popula ion g ow h a e o 2.5%
(FNUAP, 2007). This s udy ocuses on O i Ri e Basin (ORB), which ep esen s he Togolese po ion o he Vol a Ri e
Basin. Co e ing an a ea o 26,700 km², equi alen o abou 47.3% o Togo's o al su ace a ea, he ORB is si ua ed
be ween la i udes 6°10' and 11°10' N and longi udes 0° and 1°25' E. Simila o he Mono Basin, he communi ies wi hin
he O i Ri e Basin hea ily depend on wa e esou ces o ag icul u e and ene gy p oduc ion. Howe e , he Vol a Basin
aces mo e complex challenges in esou ce managemen due o i s la ge geog aphic scale and he in ol emen o
mul iple coun ies. The Vol a Basin Au ho i y (VBA) plays a c i ical ole in ansbounda y wa e go e nance, acili a ing
coope a ion and ensu ing he sus ainable managemen o wa e esou ces ac oss he basin. The impac s o clima e
change, such as i egula ain all pa e ns and educed i e lows, inc easingly a ec ood secu i y and ene gy
p oduc ion in he egion. Coo dina ed e o s among he basin coun ies a e essen ial o ackle hese challenges and
ensu e sus ainable li elihoods.
The compa a i e analysis o he Mono and O i Ri e s Basins e eals bo h sha ed and dis inc challenges in managing
he WEF nexus. Bo h basins ely hea ily on wa e esou ces o ag icul u e, ene gy p oduc ion, and domes ic use, ye
hei managemen s a egies di e due o hei a ying sizes and geopoli ical complexi ies. By compa ing he WEF nexus
dynamics in hese wo basins, his s udy aims o p o ide insigh s in o he simila i ies and di e ences in esou ce
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managemen app oaches ac oss di e se ecological, geog aphical, and ins i u ional con ex s. This compa a i e
amewo k no only deepens he unde s anding o sus ainable esou ce managemen in Wes A ica bu also o e s
lessons ha can be applied o o he ansbounda y i e basins wo ldwide, whe e in eg a ed solu ions a e needed o
add ess he g owing challenges o clima e change, sus ainable de elopmen , and esou ce secu i y.
2.2. Da a Collec ion and Sampling Techniques
The collec ion o socio-economic and en i onmen al da a is essen ial o unde s anding he in e ac ions be ween
en i onmen al ac o s and local li elihoods. I p o ides a ounda ion o assessing he impac s o clima e change on
ag icul u e, ene gy, and wa e access, while suppo ing he de elopmen o adap i e managemen s a egies (De essa
e al., 2009; Mendelsohn e al., 2000). Da a collec ion ollows a s uc u ed amewo k, as p esen ed in he able below,
ensu ing comp ehensi e co e age o key Wa e -Ene gy-Food (WEF) nexus sec o s and hei spa ial ex en .
Table 1 Desc ip ion and sou ces o da a.
Desc ip ion
Sou ce
WEF
Sec o /In e ac ion
Spa ial Ex en
Food p oduc ion and
c opping a ea
SRID-MoFA
Food
Na ional es ima es
Wa e abs ac ion da a
Wa e Resou ces
Commission (WRC)
All sec o s, including
domes ic
Na ional
Wa e abs ac ion and ood
p oduc ion da a
GIDA-Kpong I iga ion
Scheme, 2019
Wa e o Food
Kpong I iga ion Scheme
Wa e abs ac ion da a o
hyd opowe
Vol a Ri e and Mono Ri e
Au ho i ies
Wa e o Ene gy
Akosombo and Kpong
hyd opowe s a ions
Ene gy p oduc ion da a
Vol a Ri e and Mono Ri e
Au ho i ies
Ene gy
Nangbé o hyd opowe
s a ion
Annual ain all da a
Me eo ological Agencies o
Benin and Togo
Wa e
Na ional: Ag oecological
Zones
Field su eys conduc ed wi h local a me s will ga he in o ma ion on ag icul u al income, c op ypes, yields, and he
impac s o clima e a iabili y on p oduc i i y. This help iden i y a eas mos ulne able o clima ic luc ua ions and
suppo policies aimed a enhancing ag icul u al esilience in esponse o clima e change. Fu he mo e, wa e
abs ac ion da a o hyd opowe collec ed om he Vol a Ri e and Mono Ri e Au ho i ies co e key si es such as he
Akosombo and Nangbe o hyd opowe s a ions. Meanwhile, annual ain all da a om he Me eo ological Agencies o
Benin and Togo p o ide c i ical insigh s in o wa e a ailabili y ac oss a ious ag oecological zones. Addi ionally, ene gy
p oduc ion da a, including hyd opowe gene a ion a Nangbe o, is collec ed om he Vol a Ri e and Mono Ri e
Au ho i ies o e alua e ene gy sus ainabili y and i s in e ac ions wi h wa e esou ces. The analysis was conduc ed
using machine lea ning and a i icial in elligence echniques, which p o ide ad anced s a is ical and g aphical
capabili ies.
2.2.1. Iden i ica ion o Analy ical Scena ios
To e alua e he u u e impac s o clima ic and socio-economic a ia ions, scena ios will be de ined o ep esen
po en ial con ex s based on speci ic assump ions unde h ee o e a ching scena ios: Business as Usual (BAU),
Technological Imp o emen (TI), and Clima e Change (CC) (De essa e al., 2009; Mendelsohn e al., 2000). In he
Business as Usual (BAU) scena io, he cu en ends in clima e, ag icul u al p ac ices, and ene gy use will be
main ained wi hou signi ican policy o echnological in e en ions. This baseline will se e as a e e ence poin o
e alua ing he impac s o main aining he s a us quo on he LWEF sys em and li elihoods. The Technological
Imp o emen (TI) scena io will explo e he in eg a ion o ad anced echnologies o enhance esou ce e iciency and
esilience. Fo example, hyb id ene gy sys ems combining hyd opowe u bines and pho o ol aic panels will be
analyzed o assess hei po en ial o inc easing ene gy secu i y du ing pe iods o low wa e a ailabili y (IPCC, 2014).
Simila ly, sus ainable ag icul u al p ac ices, such as e icien i iga ion sys ems and conse a ion ag icul u e, will be
examined o hei abili y o boos p oduc i i y and imp o e na u al esou ce managemen .
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The Clima e Change (CC) scena io will ocus on he impac s o clima ic a iabili y, wi h speci ic sub-scena ios add essing
po en ial ex eme condi ions. An ex ended d y season scena io will e alua e he consequences o p olonged d ough s
on ag icul u e, hyd ology, and ene gy supply, while an excessi e ainy season scena io will s udy he e ec s o hea y
ain all and looding on ag icul u al in as uc u e, i iga ion sys ems, ene gy ins alla ions, and local li elihoods. By
combining hese o e a ching scena ios, he s udy will p o ide a obus amewo k o unde s anding he implica ions
o di e en de elopmen pa hways on he Wa e -Ene gy-Food (WEF) nexus in he Mono and O i basins, enabling he
iden i ica ion o adap i e s a egies o sus ainable esou ce managemen .
2.3. Wa e In ensi y Analysis o Food P oduc ion and Ene gy Gene a ion
Wa e in ensi y is a measu e ha quan i ies wa e consump ion pe uni o ou pu in ag icul u al and ene gy sec o s. I
can be de ined by he ollowing equa ions:
Fo he ag icul u e sec o :
Ag icul u al Wa e In ensi y=To al Volume o Wa e Used in Ag icul u e
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (1)
Fo he ene gy sec o :
Ene gy Wa e In ensi y=To al Volume o Wa e Used o Ene gy
𝐴𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 (2)
These calcula ions will be applied unde di e en scena ios (Business As Usual - BAU, Technological Inno a ion-TI, and
Clima e Change-CC) o es ima e he impac s o a ious policies o echnological inno a ions on wa e use e iciency.
Acco ding o Liu e al. (2011), hese a ios allow o a compa ison o e iciency ac oss di e en p oduc ion sys ems and
o iden i ying po en ial e iciency gains h ough echnological inno a ion.
2.4. Wa e and Ene gy ulne abili y and sus ainabili y indices
To assess he ulne abili y o wa e and ene gy esou ces, ulne abili y indices a e used based on clima e ac o s,
consump ion ends, and local challenges. Le X1, X2,...,Xn ep esen he di e en ac o s con ibu ing o ulne abili y,
such as ain all, ene gy a ailabili y, wa e low, e apo anspi a ion, e c. Each o hese ac o s can be no malized o b ing
hem in o a common scale, ypically be ween 0 and 1
No maliza ion:𝑋𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎
𝑖=𝑋𝑖−𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑋𝑖)
𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑋𝑖)−𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑋𝑖) ………. ( 3)
Xi is he o iginal alue o he i h ac o , min(Xi) and max(Xi) a e he minimum and maximum alues o he i h ac o ac oss
he da ase .
Vulne abili y Index (VI) is:𝑉𝐼=∑𝑤𝑖𝑓(𝑋𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎
𝑖)
𝑛
𝑖 ……… (4)
Sus ainabili y Index (SI) is: 𝑆𝐼=∑𝑤𝑖
𝑛
𝑖No malized Indica o ……… (5)
wi is he weigh assigned o he i h ac o , e lec ing i s ela i e impo ance in he calcula ion o he ulne abili y index.
(𝑋𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎
𝑖) is a unc ion applied o he no malized alue o he i h ac o .( Liu e al. 2022).
2.5. S udy o Co ela ions Be ween En i onmen al and Economic Va iables
When calcula ing he co ela ion ma ix be ween mul iple a iables, each pai o a iables will ha e i s own
co ela ion coe icien . Fo a da ase wi h mul iple a iables, say X1, X2,…, Xn, he co ela ion ma ix shows he Pea son
co ela ion be ween e e y pai o hese a iables.
The co ela ion ma ix R is de ined as: 𝑅=(1 ⋯ 𝑟1𝑛
⋮ ⋱ ⋮
𝑟𝑛1 ⋯ 1) ……… (6)
whe e: ij is he Pea son co ela ion coe icien be ween a iables Xi and Xj, he diagonal elemen s a e always 1 because
he co ela ion o a a iable wi h i sel is 1. Each elemen ij is calcula ed using he Pea son co ela ion o mula:
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𝑟𝑖𝑗 =∑ (𝑋𝑖−𝑋𝑖𝑚)
𝑛
𝑖(𝑋𝑗−𝑋𝑗𝑚)
√∑(𝑋𝑖−𝑋𝑖𝑚)2√∑(𝑋𝑗−𝑋𝑗𝑚)2 ….. (7)
2.6. Calcula ion o Composi e Indices o he WEF Nexus
To analyze he Wa e -Ene gy-Food (WEF) nexus, selec ing obus global indica o s is essen ial (Rydin e al. 2003). In
wa e esou ces, indica o s like wa e a ailabili y, wa e quali y (using me ics such as Biological Oxygen Demand
(BOD) and To al Dissol ed Solids (TDS)), and wa e consump ion pa e ns a e i al. These a iables assess wa e
secu i y, especially amid clima e a iabili y, as no ed by Falkenma k and Rocks öm (2004). Fo ene gy, indica o s like
access o enewable and non- enewable sou ces and ene gy consump ion pe capi a play a signi ican ole in suppo ing
ag icul u al p oduc i i y. Acco ding o IEA (2019), dispa i ies in ene gy access emain a challenge, especially in
de eloping egions. Finally, ood secu i y indica o s, such as c op yield, ood access, and a ailabili y, a e essen ial o
e alua ing ag icul u al e ec i eness in mee ing nu i ional needs (Es oque e al. 2019; Mazzio a & Pa e o, 2019).
God ay e al. (2010) s ess ha in eg a ing land, wa e , and ene gy esou ces is i al o ood secu i y. Using da ase s
om he FAO and Wo ld Bank p o ides a s ong ounda ion o e alua ing he LWEF nexus and in o ms policy s a egies
o mi iga e esou ce deple ion and clima e change impac s.
To es ablish WEF (Wa e -Ene gy-Food) nexus indica o s and calcula e he nexus alues, we'll ypically ollow hese
s eps, which in ol e c ea ing a composi e indica o o index o each esou ce ( Wa e , Ene gy, and Food). We base
hese indices on selec ed indica o s and use a weigh ed app oach (such as Analy ical Hie a chy P ocess (AHP),
no maliza ion echniques, o s a is ical agg ega ion) o combine hem.
To begin wi h, da a no maliza ion is c ucial o b ing di e en uni s in o a compa able scale, ensu ing ha no single
indica o disp opo iona ely in luences he esul s. One common app oach is Min-Max Scaling, which adjus s he alues
o a ange be ween 0 and 1. The equa ion o Min-Max Scaling is:
𝑿= 𝑿𝟎−𝑿𝒎𝒊𝒏
𝑿𝒎𝒂𝒙−𝑿𝒎𝒊𝒏 ……… (8)
Whe e X0 ep esen s he o iginal alue, and Xmin and Xmax a e he minimum and maximum alues o each indica o ,
espec i ely. This scaling acili a es a di ec compa ison be ween indica o s, enabling an unbiased analysis o hei
ela i e impo ance.
Nex , o weigh he no malized indica o s, we can u ilize me hods such as he Analy ical Hie a chy P ocess (AHP).
AHP assigns impo ance o di e en indica o s based on expe judgmen s o speci ic c i e ia. Le 's deno e he weigh
ma ix as W, whe e indi idual weigh s co espond o indica o s such as WLand, WWa e , e c. These weigh s e lec he
ela i e signi icance o each indica o in he o e all composi e calcula ion (Mabhaudhi e al. 2019).
A e de e mining he weigh s, we mo e o he composi e indica o calcula ion. The composi e index o each esou ce
is compu ed as he weigh ed sum o i s no malized indica o s:
𝐼𝑅=∑𝑊𝑖𝑋𝑖
𝑛
𝑖 ……… (9)
He e, IR ep esen s he composi e index o a gi en esou ce (such as Food, Wa e , o Ene gy), Wi is he assigned weigh
o he i- h indica o , and Xi is he no malized alue o ha indica o . This app oach ensu es ha he mos c i ical
indica o s (as de e mined by he weigh s) con ibu e p opo ionally o he o e all sco e, p o iding a comp ehensi e
assessmen o each esou ce.
The Consis ency Index (CI) and Consis ency Ra io (CR) a e c i ical in de e mining whe he he pai wise compa isons in
he AHP ma ix a e consis en enough o eliable decision-making.
The Consis ency Index (CI) is used o measu e how consis en he pai wise compa isons a e. I s o mula is:
𝐶𝐼=𝜆𝑚𝑎𝑥−𝑛
𝑛−1 ……… (10)
Whe e: λmax is he la ges eigen alue o he compa ison ma ix, n is he numbe o c i e ia ( he o de o he ma ix).
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The Consis ency Ra io (CR) is calcula ed by compa ing he Consis ency Index (CI) wi h a Random Index (RI), which is a
able o andom consis ency indices based on ma ix size. The o mula is:
𝐶𝑅=𝐶𝐼
𝑅𝐼 …………… (11)
we compu ed CI using he o mula;
𝐶𝐼=𝜔− 𝑛
𝑛−1 …….. (12)
whe e n ep esen s he numbe o indica o s and ω ep esen he alue ob ained om he weigh alue o indica o .
2.7. O e all Pe o mance Analysis o he WEF Nexus on Li elihoods
The impac o he WEF Nexus on li elihoods is e alua ed by measu ing economic and well-being indica o s, such as
income and access o essen ial se ices. No malized sco es can be used o each indica o and combined as ollows:
PLWEF=α×Income+β×Access o D inking Wa e +γ×Food Secu i y ……… (13)
whe e α, β, and γ a e he weigh s o each indica o , de e mined acco ding o hei impo ance o he local popula ion
(Hanj a and Qu eshi, 2010).
2.8. E alua ing he Sus ainabili y o he WEF Nexus O e Time
To assess sus ainabili y, a sus ainabili y index SWEF can be calcula ed, combining economic, en i onmen al, and social
ac o s:
SWEF=δ×Sec o al GDP+θ×Ecological Foo p in +λ×Well-being Index ……… (14)
whe e δ, θ, and λ a e weigh ing coe icien s. These coe icien s can be adjus ed acco ding o local p io i ies and u u e
p ojec ions, and his index can be calcula ed a egula in e als o ack sus ainabili y ends o e ime (Allan e al.,
2015).
2.9. Modeling Tools
Tools such as R, Py hon, and A cGIS a e used o model he scena ios. These ools will enable he simula ion o ime se ies
da a o clima ic and socio-economic a iables o es ima e he impac o a ious scena ios on he sus ainabili y o he
WEF Nexus. The esul s we e analyzed o iden i y ulne abili ies and oppo uni ies o imp o e he in eg a ed
managemen o wa e , ene gy, and ood in he egion. Th ough his app oach, adap a ion s a egies can be p oposed o
mi iga e he isks associa ed wi h en i onmen al changes.
3. Resul
3.1. Cha ac e iza ion o in e ac ions be ween en i onmen al and economic a iables
The cha ac e iza ion o in e ac ions be ween en i onmen al and economic a iables highligh s he complex dynamics
and mu ual dependencies shaping esou ce managemen and economic de elopmen . The Fig 3 and Fig 4 highligh he
in e connec edness be ween p ecipi a ion, i e low, hyd oelec ic powe p oduc ion, and ag icul u al yields om
2000 o 2022.
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Figu e 3 Plo o a e age p ecipi a ion, plan discha ge, ag icul u al yields, and ene gy p oduc ion a Nangbe o dam.
The a e age p ecipi a ion o he Mono Basin was es ima ed using he Thiessen Me hod
Figu e 4 Plo o a e age p ecipi a ion, plan discha ge, ag icul u al yields, and ene gy p oduc ion a Akosombo dam.
The a e age p ecipi a ion o he o i Basin was es ima ed using he Thiessen Me hod
A di ec co ela ion is e iden be ween p ecipi a ion and i e low in he i s g aph, whe e yea s o hea y ain all lead
o highe i e low. This connec ion is mi o ed in he hi d g aph, showing ha hyd oelec ic powe p oduc ion
s ongly depends on i e low, wi h ene gy ou pu luc ua ing in line wi h wa e a ailabili y. The co ela ion be ween
p ecipi a ion and ag icul u al yields in he ou h g aph also emphasizes wa e 's c i ical ole in ag icul u e, al hough
anomalies show ha o he ac o s can dis up his link. The compa ison be ween he wo basins e eals bo h simila i ies
and di e ences in he ela ionships be ween p ecipi a ion, i e low, ene gy p oduc ion, and ag icul u al yields. In bo h
basins, p ecipi a ion di ec ly co ela es wi h i e low-we yea s see inc eased i e discha ge. This link unde sco es
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Figu e 12 Sensi i i y es ima ion o WEF nexus o li elihoods componen s
The Fig 12 p o ides a quan i ied iew o he sensi i i y o di e en li elihood componen s o he WEF (Wa e -Ene gy-
Food) nexus esou ces in he Mono and O i basins, ocusing on wa e a ailabili y, ene gy supply, and ood p oduc ion.
The sensi i i y coe icien s o each componen a e ep esen ed, wi h he Mono Basin gene ally showing highe
sensi i i y han he O i Basin. In e ms o wa e a ailabili y, he Mono Basin shows a highe sensi i i y (~0.5) compa ed
o he O i Basin (~0.4), indica ing a g ea e impac on li elihoods in Mono. Ene gy supply also exhibi s a s onge
in luence in he Mono Basin (~0.65) e sus he O i Basin (~0.45), sugges ing ha ene gy plays a mo e c i ical ole in
sus aining li elihoods in Mono. Food p oduc ion, he mos in luen ial ac o in bo h basins, is sligh ly mo e impo an
in he Mono Basin (~0.7) compa ed o he O i Basin (~0.6). O e all, he Mono Basin demons a es highe sensi i i y
ac oss all LWEF componen s, wi h ood p oduc ion being he mos sensi i e in bo h basins, pa icula ly in he Mono
Basin. This sugges s a g ea e need o esou ce managemen and policy ocus in he Mono Basin o suppo li elihoods.
3.9. E alua ing he Sus ainabili y o he WEF Nexus O e Time
To e alua e sus ainabili y, a sus ainabili y index SWEF was calcula ed by combining economic, en i onmen al, and
social ac o s. The weigh ing coe icien s we e adjus ed based on local p io i ies and u u e p ojec ions, and his index
is calcula ed a egula in e als o moni o sus ainabili y ends o e ime. The g aph (Fig 13) illus a es he e olu ion
o he Wa e -Ene gy-Food (WEF) nexus sus ainabili y index o bo h he Mono and O i basins om 2020 o 2050,
measu ing how well hese in e connec ed sec o s a e managed o ensu e long- e m sus ainabili y. The sus ainabili y
index o he Mono Basin emains ela i ely s able, oscilla ing be ween 0.7 and 0.85, consis en ly highe han ha o he
O i Basin. Despi e some luc ua ions, his indica es a mo e e ec i e managemen o wa e , ene gy, and ood esou ces
in he Mono Basin, which demons a es g ea e esilience and sus ainabili y. This sus ained highe index sugges s
s onge policies o en i onmen al condi ions suppo ing he WEF nexus in he Mono Basin. On he o he hand, he O i
Basin has a gene ally lowe index, anging be ween 0.6 and 0.7, wi h mo e p onounced a iabili y, pa icula ly in he
ea ly yea s (2020-2030). This indica es ha he O i Basin aces g ea e challenges in main aining sus ainabili y,
po en ially due o ac o s like weake in as uc u e, policy gaps, o en i onmen al p essu es. Howe e , he global
compa ison be ween he basins shows ha while he Mono Basin consis en ly ou pe o ms he O i Basin, bo h indices
end o s abilize om 2030 onwa ds, sugges ing imp o ed esou ce managemen p ac ices o ex e nal suppo in bo h
basins. The O i Basin, despi e s a ing lowe , shows signs o g adual imp o emen , indica ing ha wi h app op ia e
in e en ions, he sus ainabili y gap be ween he wo basins could na ow o e ime. In summa y, while bo h basins
ace challenges, he Mono Basin demons a es s onge long- e m sus ainabili y, wi h he O i Basin slowly ca ching up,
highligh ing he need o a ge ed policy measu es and be e esou ce managemen in he la e .
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Figu e 13 Sus ainabili y Index
4. Discussion
The indings om his s udy build a cohe en na a i e, linking he in e play o en i onmen al and economic a iables
wi h esou ce demands and managemen s a egies. By explo ing wa e in ensi y and ene gy ulne abili y h ough
scena io analysis, he s udy unde sco es he c i ical ole o echnological ad ancemen s in enhancing sus ainabili y,
aligning wi h conclusions by Nhamo e al. (2020) on he necessi y o inno a i e app oaches in esou ce e iciency.
Mo eo e , he p ojec ions o u u e esou ce demands and hei co ela ions wi h en i onmen al ac o s emphasize he
u gency o adop ing c oss-sec o al policies o mi iga e isks, as sugges ed by he FAO (2019) and Akpo i e al. (2021) in
simila con ex s. The use o composi e indices, as suppo ed by Banwe & Deshmukh (2008), and sensi i i y analysis
p o ides ac ionable insigh s, enabling decision-make s o p io i ize in e en ions ha s eng hen esilience and
sus ainabili y. Collec i ely, hese esul s in eg a e di e se aspec s o esou ce dynamics, o e ing a comp ehensi e
amewo k o add essing he challenges o clima e a iabili y and g owing esou ce demands in he Mono and O i
basins, consis en wi h amewo ks p oposed by Russo & Camanho (2015).
The s udy has p esen limi a ions: Fi s , i elies on a ailable da a on clima e a iabili y and esou ce demands, which
may be incomple e o subjec o unce ain ies. While he u u e p ojec ions a e ele an , hey a e p one o po en ial
e o s ela ed o da a quali y and co e age. Second, he scena ios used o sensi i i y analysis and composi e index
modeling assume linea o cons an ela ionships be ween a iables, which may no cap u e he ull complexi y o
en i onmen al and socio-economic in e ac ions. Thi d, he s udy ocuses on egional analyses bu may o e look local
dynamics speci ic o communi ies o esou ce managemen p ac ices in he Mono and O i basins. Addi ionally, al hough
c oss-sec o al policies a e ecommended, hei implemen a ion may ace ins i u ional and poli ical challenges, as well
as di e gen in e es s among sec o s. Finally, while he impo ance o echnological ad ancemen s is heo e ically
alida ed, he accessibili y and p ac ical applica ion o hese echnologies in local con ex s may pose challenges,
pa icula ly in e ms o inancing and echnical capaci ies.
To imp o e he s udy's ou comes, se e al a eas need o be add essed: Expanding scena ios o include di e se clima ic
and socio-economic ajec o ies would be e accoun o u u e unce ain y and associa ed isks. Conside ing a b oade
ange o adap a ion and esou ce managemen scena ios would be bene icial. S eng hening local capaci ies h ough
p og ams o wa e esou ce manage s and local decision-make s is necessa y o in eg a e s udy esul s in o local
policies on na u al esou ce managemen and clima e esilience. Rigo ous moni o ing and e alua ion mechanisms
should be es ablished o assess he e ec i eness o adop ed c oss-sec o al policies, pa icula ly hose aimed a
enhancing communi y esilience o clima e change. Inc easing in e disciplina y collabo a ion among esea che s,
go e nmen s, NGOs, and local communi ies will ensu e ha p oposed in e en ions a e app op ia e and easible,
add essing he economic, en i onmen al, and social dimensions o he basins. Finally, os e ing echnological inno a ion
o sus ainable esou ce managemen , including sma wa e moni o ing sys ems, enewable ene gy managemen , and
esou ce e iciency op imiza ion, is essen ial. Pa ne ships wi h ech companies could play a key ole in implemen ing
la ge-scale solu ions.
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5. Conclusion
In conclusion, his s udy o e s a comp ehensi e analysis o he in e connec ions be ween en i onmen al and economic
a iables, wi h a pa icula ocus on he Wa e -Ene gy-Food (WEF) Nexus in he Mono and O i basins. By cha ac e izing
wa e in ensi y o ood p oduc ion and ene gy gene a ion h ough scena io analysis, he s udy highligh s he
ulne abili ies o wa e and ene gy sys ems, o e ing aluable p ojec ions o u u e demands. Unde s anding domes ic
wa e , ood, and ene gy demand p ojec ions unde di e en scena ios is essen ial o de eloping in o med wa e
managemen s a egies, especially conside ing he po en ial impac s o clima e change and echnological ad ancemen s.
The s udy emphasizes he signi ican co ela ions be ween en i onmen al a iables such as ain all, low, ene gy, and
ag icul u al yield, unde sco ing he in e connec edness o na u al esou ces and human ac i i ies. The applica ion o
composi e indices and sensi i i y analysis o he WEF nexus p o ides ac ionable insigh s in o how hese sec o s
in luence he li elihoods and sus ainabili y o local communi ies. Fu he mo e, he sus ainabili y index (SWEF)
calcula ed in his s udy in eg a es economic, en i onmen al, and social dimensions, o e ing a holis ic app oach o
e alua ing long- e m esou ce managemen .
O e all, he indings o his s udy no only con ibu e o a be e unde s anding o esou ce dynamics in he Mono and
O i basins bu also p o ide a s a egic amewo k o policymake s and s akeholde s o add ess u u e challenges in
wa e , ene gy, and ood secu i y, os e ing sus ainabili y and esilience in he ace o clima e change.
Compliance wi h e hical s anda ds
Disclosu e o con lic o in e es
No con lic o in e es o be disclosed.
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