In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5746 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
Analysis o Financial Dis ess P edic ion a PT Kha isma Dua Pu i o
2020–2024
Muhammad A iza1, F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala2
1,2 S udy P og am o Accoun an P o ession (PPAk), Business & Economic Facul y, Ta umanaga a Uni e si y,
Jaka a—Indonesia
ABSTRACT: This s udy aims o analyze he p edic ion o inancial dis ess a PT Kha isma Dua Pu i (KDP) o he 2020–2024
pe iod using mul iple bank up cy p edic ion models, namely Al man Z-Sco e, Sp inga e, G o e , Zmijewski, Ta le . The pu pose
o his esea ch is o e alua e he company’s inancial condi ion by compa ing he p edic i e consis ency among he models and
iden i ying indica o s o po en ial dis ess. A quan i a i e desc ip i e app oach is employed using seconda y da a ob ained om
audi ed inancial s a emen s co e ing 2020 o 2024. The esul s o each model a e compa ed o assess he i m’s inancial heal h
and isk o insol ency. The indings e eal a ia ions in p edic ion ou comes, wi h se e al models indica ing ea ly signs o inancial
ulne abili y, pa icula ly du ing pe iods o declining p o i abili y and liquidi y. O e all, PT KDP expe ienced luc ua ing inancial
pe o mance ha app oached dis ess h esholds in ce ain yea s. The s udy highligh s he impo ance o a mul i-model analy ical
app oach o enhance he accu acy o inancial dis ess assessmen and o p o ide ea ly wa ning signals o manage ial decision-
making.
KEYWORDS: Al man, Financial Dis ess P edic ion, G o e , Sp inga e, Ta le , Zmijewski
1. INTRODUCTION
Financial dis ess p edic ion is a cen al opic in co po a e inance, as economic ola ili y and compe i i e p essu es a ec
i ms’ abili y o main ain inancial s abili y1. Ea ly iden i ica ion o dis ess signals is c ucial o p e en ing bank up cy and
suppo ing e ec i e manage ial decision-making2. In amily-owned businesses, go e nance s uc u es a e o en in o mal, wi h
decision-making concen a ed among co e amily membe s3. This in o mali y can limi sys ema ic inancial moni o ing, causing
ea ly wa ning signs o dis ess o be o e looked and delaying co ec i e ac ions4.
Family-owned en e p ises domina e Indonesia’s p i a e sec o 5, ye empi ical e idence on inancial dis ess in p i a ely held
amily i ms, especially in he cons uc ion- ela ed se ice sec o , emains limi ed6. Owne ship concen a ion and limi ed use o
analy ical ools may allow luc ua ions in liquidi y, p o i abili y, o le e age o go unno iced un il hey escala e in o se ious inancial
p oblems 7. This gap highligh s he need o mo e comp ehensi e and mul idimensional app oaches o assess he isk o inancial
dis ess in such i ms8.
PT Kha isma Dua Pu i is a amily-owned en e p ise engaged in he cons uc ion and elec ical se ices indus y. The
company is headqua e ed in Su abaya, Indonesia, and was es ablished in 2012. Since i s ounding, PT Kha isma Dua Pu i has
p o ided in eg a ed solu ions in elec ical ins alla ion, ligh ing in as uc u e, and ela ed enginee ing se ices o bo h public and
p i a e sec o p ojec s.
As a p i a ely held company, PT Kha isma Dua Pu i emphasizes p o essionalism, eliabili y, and compliance wi h echnical
and sa e y s anda ds in e e y aspec o i s ope a ions. The company’s commi men o quali y and e iciency suppo s i s mission o
con ibu e o sus ainable in as uc u e de elopmen and long- e m clien sa is ac ion.
PT Kha isma Dua Pu i (PT KDP), a amily-owned company in elec ical cons uc ion and ligh ing se ices, p o ides a
sui able case o add essing his gap. Be ween 2020 and 2024, i s inancial s a emen s e eal no able a ia ions in asse s, equi y,
p o i abili y, and eme ging liabili ies (Table 1), e lec ing s uc u al adjus men s d i en by bo h expansion e o s and inc easing
ope a ional p essu es. This s udy applies six es ablished inancial dis ess p edic ion models: Al man Z-Sco e, Fishe , G o e ,
Sp inga e, Ta le , and Zmijewski, inco po a ing a ios o p o i abili y, liquidi y, sol ency, le e age, and ope a ional e iciency1.
Compa ing ou comes ac oss hese models o e s a mul idimensional e alua ion o he i m’s inancial heal h and p o ides insigh s
o bo h heo y and p ac ice in p edic ing and managing inancial dis ess among amily-owned en e p ises in Indonesia.
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5747 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
Table 1. Summa y o PT KDP’s Financial Pe o mance 2020–2024 (in housand IDR)
Yea
Desc ip ion
To al Asse s
To al Liabli ies
To al Equi y
Re enue
Business
Ope a ing
Expenses
Ne P o i
Be o e ax
2020
1,187,104
-
1,187,104
3,444,393
637,959
351,950
2021
1,749,372
-
1,749,372
3,357,361
365,722
637,087
2022
1,958,122
-
1,958,122
2,719,401
403,570
208,750
2023
2,368,620
232
2,368,387
3,744,670
624,402
690,445
2024
13,225,734
10,288,602
2,937,132
1,887,076
827,162
1,059,913
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Financial S a emen
Financial s a emen s a e he inal esul o eco ding and summa izing a company’s ansac ions. They se e as he main ool
o e alua e a company’s inancial posi ion and pe o mance. The p ima y objec i e o inancial s a emen s is o p o ide ele an
and eliable in o ma ion ha suppo s use s in making sound economic decisions 9. These s a emen s desc ibe a company’s inancial
posi ion a a speci ic poin in ime h ough he balance shee and i s pe o mance o e a ce ain pe iod h ough he income
s a emen 10. In addi ion o epo ing pu poses, inancial s a emen s a e impo an o analyzing p o i abili y, liquidi y, le e age, and
sol ency. These inancial aspec s help iden i y po en ial wa ning signs o inancial dis ess.
2.2 Financial Dis ess
Financial dis ess is a condi ion in which a company aces di icul y mee ing i s inancial obliga ions due o a decline in
pe o mance o ine ec i e managemen . I o en ep esen s an ea ly s age be o e bank up cy occu s. De ec ing inancial dis ess a
an ea ly s age allows managemen , audi o s, and in es o s o ake p e en i e ac ions and educe po en ial isks11. highligh ed he
impo ance o ecognizing ea ly wa ning signals o main ain business con inui y. Since hen, se e al models ha e been de eloped
o p edic inancial dis ess, including hose by Al man, Sp inga e, G o e , Ta le , Fos e , and Zmijewski. Each model uses di e en
inancial a ios o e alua e p o i abili y, liquidi y, le e age, and sol ency, p o iding a ied pe spec i es on a company’s inancial
s abili y2.
2.3 P e ious S udies
Financial dis ess p edic ion is a c i ical ool o assessing a i m’s abili y o main ain ope a ional con inui y, enabling audi o s o
o m mo e eliable going-conce n judgmen s and allowing i ms o iden i y ea ly wa ning signals ha suppo imely co ec i e
ac ions o mi iga e bank up cy isk. Weak manage ial p ac ices can exace ba e pe o mance decline and con ibu e o b oade
o ganiza ional challenges, including inancial ins abili y. inancial dis ess deno es a phase o de e io a ing inancial heal h ha
p ecedes insol ency o liquida ion, ypically mani es ed in a i m’s inabili y o insu icien capaci y o mee i s inancial obliga ions
on schedule 12.
3. RESEARCH METHOD
3.1 Me hods
This s udy employs a quan i a i e desc ip i e app oach o analyze he po en ial o inancial dis ess a
PT Kha isma Dua Pu i (KDP), a p i a ely held amily company ope a ing in he cons uc ion and elec ical se ices sec o . The
objec i e is o e alua e he i m’s inancial condi ion and iden i y ea ly indica o s o dis ess du ing he 2020–2024 pe iod. The
analysis is based on audi ed in e nal inancial s a emen s, ob ained wi h managemen app o al o ensu e da a eliabili y and alidi y.
A mul i-model analy ical app oach is applied using six bank up cy p edic ion models: Al man Z-Sco e, Sp inga e, G o e ,
Zmijewski and Ta le . These models assess key inancial a ios such as liquidi y, p o i abili y, sol ency, and le e age. The esul s
o each mo del a e compa ed and analyzed desc ip i ely o e alua e p edic ion consis ency and de ec po en ial pe o mance decline.
This mul i-model app oach enhances he accu acy o inancial isk assessmen and p o ides ea ly wa ning signals o suppo
s a egic manage ial decision-making.
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5748 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
3.1.1 Me hod Al man
The Al man Z-Sco e model, de eloped by Edwa d I. Al man, is one o he ea lies and mos in luen ial models o p edic ing
co po a e bank up cy13. Using Mul iple Disc iminan Analysis (MDA) on inancial a ios om 66 manu ac u ing i ms (33 bank up
and 33 non-bank up ), Al man iden i ied key a ios ha e ec i ely dis inguish inancially dis essed companies om heal hy ones1.
The esul ing model p oduced he ollowing equa ion:
Z = 1,2 𝐗𝟏+ 1,4 𝐗𝟐+ 3,3 𝐗𝟑+ 0.6 𝐗𝟒+1.0 𝐗𝟓
Desc ip ion:
X1 (Liquidi y Ra io) = Wo king Capi al / To al Asse s
X2 (P o i abili y Ra io) = Re ained Ea nings / To al Asse s
X3 (Ope a ing E iciency) = Ea ning Be o e In e es and Tax / To al Asse s
X4 (Le e age Ra io) = Ma ke Value Equi y / To al Liabili ies
X5 (Asse Tu no e Ra io) = Sales / To al Asse sThe Z-Sco e alue se es as an indica o o inancial dis ess, whe e a
highe sco e indica es be e inancial heal h. The i ms wi h a Z-Sco e below 1.81 a e conside ed in he dis ess zone, sco es be ween
1.81–2.99 all in he g ey zone, and sco es abo e 2.99 a e in he sa e zone. This model has become a ounda ional e e ence in
inancial dis ess analysis and has been widely applied, modi ied, and alida ed in subsequen s udies1.
3.1.2 Me hod G o e
The G o e model was de eloped by Je ey S. G o e (2001) as an enhancemen o he Al man Z-Sco e model. By e isi ing
Al man’s 1968 sample and inco po a ing 13 addi ional inancial a ios, G o e e ined he disc iminan unc ion o imp o e he
accu acy o bank up cy p edic ion. The model was cons uc ed using da a om 70 i ms, consis ing o 35 bank up and 35 non-
bank up companies, co e ing he pe iod om 1982 o 19961. The esul ing model p oduced he ollowing equa ion:
G-Sco e = 1,65 𝐗𝟏+ 3,404 𝐗𝟐+ 0,016 𝐗𝟑+ 0.057
Desc ip ion:
X1 (Liquidi y Ra io) = Wo king Capi al / To al Asse s
X2 (Ope a ing E iciency) = Ea ning Be o e In e es and Tax / To al Asse s
X3 (Re u n On Asse s) = Ne Income/ To al Asse s
A G o e sco e (G) below –0.02 indica es inancial dis ess, alues be ween –0.02 and 0.01 ep esen he g ey zone, and
sco es abo e 0.01 indica e a heal hy inancial condi ion 1.
3.1.3 Me hod Sp inga e
The Sp inga e model was de eloped by Go don L. V. Sp inga e (1978) using Mul iple Disc iminan Analysis (MDA),
ollowing he analy ical app oach in oduced by Al man and Edwa d I (1968). The model was designed o p edic co po a e
bank up cy using inancial a ios de i ed om i ms’ inancial s a emen s. In de eloping he model, Sp inga e examined 40
manu ac u ing companies, consis ing o 20 bank up and 20 non-bank up i ms, o iden i y he inancial a ios ha mos e ec i ely
di e en ia ed he wo g oups1. The esul ing disc iminan unc ion is as ollows:
S - Sco e = 1,03 𝐗𝟏+ 3,07 𝐗𝟐+ 0,66 𝐗𝟑+ 0,4 𝐗𝟒
Desc ip ion:
X1 (Liquidi y Ra io) = Wo king Capi al / To al Asse s
X2 (Ope a ing E iciency) = Ea ning Be o e In e es and Tax / To al Asse s
X3 (Re u n on Liabili ies (ROL)) = Ea ning Be o e In e es and Tax / Cu en Liabili ies
X4 (To al Asse Tu no e ) = Sales / To al Asse s
A company is p edic ed o be in inancial dis ess i he Sp inga e sco e (S) is below 0.862, while sco es abo e 0.862 indica e
a heal hy inancial condi ion 1.
3.1.4 Me hod Ta le
The Ta le model was de eloped by Richa d J. Ta le (1977) as an al e na i e bank up cy p edic ion model using Mul iple
Disc iminan Analysis (MDA). D awing on inancial da a om 80 publicly lis ed UK indus ial i ms, comp ising 46 ailed and 34
non- ailed companies, Ta le iden i ied a se o inancial a ios ha e ec i ely di e en ia e be ween sol en and insol en
i ms1.The esul ing disc iminan unc ion is as ollows:
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5749 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
T = 0,53 𝐗𝟏+ 0,13 𝐗𝟐+ 0,18 𝐗𝟑+ 0,16 𝐗𝟒
Desc ip ion:
X1 (EBIT o Cu en Deb Ra io) = Ea ning Be o e In e es and Tax / Cu en Deb
X2 (Cu en Ra io) = Cu en Asse s / Cu en Deb
X3 (Cu en Deb o To al Asse s Ra io) = Cu en Deb / To al Asse s
X4 (To al Asse Tu no e ) = Sales / To al Asse s
A Ta le sco e (Z) below 0.2 indica es a high p obabili y o inancial dis ess, while a sco e abo e 0.3 sugges s inancial
s abili y1.
3.1.5 Me hod Zmijewski
The Zmijewski model was de eloped by Ma k E. Zmijewski (1984) o p edic co po a e inancial dis ess using a p obi
eg ession app oach, in con as o ea lie models ha elied on disc iminan analysis. The model was o mula ed based on inancial
da a om 40 bank up and 800 non-bank up i ms du ing he 1972–1978 pe iod, allowing he iden i ica ion o a iables
signi ican ly associa ed wi h bank up cy p obabili y. The esul ing model is exp essed as ollows:
X = -4,3 - 4,5 𝐗𝟏+ 5,7 𝐗𝟐+ 0,004 𝐗𝟑
Desc ip ion:
X1 (Re u n On Asse ) = Ne Income / To al Asse s
X2 (Deb Ra io) = To al Deb / To al Asse s
X3 (Cu en Ra io ) = Cu en Asse s / Cu en Liabili ies
A highe Zmijewski sco e (X) indica es a g ea e p obabili y o inancial dis ess, while lowe alues signi y a heal hie
inancial condi ion. The model applies a cu o alue whe e i ms wi h X<0 a e classi ied as inancially heal hy, and i ms wi h X>0
a e ca ego ized as inancially dis essed (Zmijewski, 1984). This h eshold allows he model o e ec i ely dis inguish be ween
sol en and insol en companies based on p o i abili y, le e age, and liquidi y indica o s de i ed om inancial s a emen s1.
4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Resul
Table 2. Basis o Financial Dis ess Sco e Calcula ion
Desc ip ion
Yea s
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Cu en Asse
949.402
1.559.177
1.811.685
693.040
1.859.708
Cu en Deb
-
-
-
-
3.884.240
Cu en
Liabili ies
-
-
-
-
10.178.602
EBIT
351.951
637.087
208.750
690.445
1.059.913
Ma ke Value
Equi y
(To al Equi y)
1.187.104
1.749.372
1.958.123
2.368.388
2.937.133
Ne Income
271.026
562.268
208.750
619.015
818.745
Re ained
Ea ning
887.104
1.449.372
1.658.123
2.277.138
2.887.133
Sales
3.444.393
3.357.362
2.719.401
3.744.670
1.887.076
To al Asse
1.187.104
1.749.372
1.958.123
2.368.621
13.225.735
To al Deb
-
-
-
-
3.884.240
To al Liabili ies
-
-
-
233
10.288.602
Wo king Capi al
949.402
1.559.177
1.811.685
693.040
- 8.318.894
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5750 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
Table 2 summa izes he company’s key inancial da a om 2020 o 2024, se ing as he basis o calcula ing inancial dis ess
sco es using he Al man Z-Sco e, G o e , Sp inga e, Ta le , and Zmijewski models. The da a e eal no iceable luc ua ions ac oss
liquidi y, p o i abili y, and le e age indica o s, e lec ing he company’s dynamic inancial pe o mance du ing he obse ed pe iod.
Wo king capi al showed a downwa d end, indica ing po en ial liquidi y p essu e, while he s eady inc ease in liabili ies
sugges s a highe le e age posi ion o e ime. Despi e mode a e imp o emen s in p o i abili y, as e lec ed by ising ea nings and
ne income, he weakening liquidi y posi ion and g owing deb a io may signal an ele a ed isk o inancial dis ess. These pa e ns
p o ide impo an inpu s o u he analysis using he selec ed models o assess he company’s s abili y and po en ial going-conce n
issues.
4.2 Discussion
4.2.1 Al man Me hod
Table 3. Al man Me hod Resul s (2020–2024)
Desc ip ion
Yea s
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
X1
0,800
0,891
0,925
0,293
-0,629
X2
0,747
0,829
0,847
0,961
0,218
X3
0,296
0,364
0,107
0,291
0,080
X4
-
-
-
10.169,250
0,285
X5
2,902
1,919
1,389
1,581
0,143
Z-Sco e
5,886
5,350
4,036
6.105,790
0,129
Po en ial
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Dis ess
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
The Al man Z-Sco e esul s show ha PT Kha isma Dua Pu i main ained a s ong inancial posi ion om 2020 o 2023
be o e acing dis ess in 2024. In 2020, a Z-Sco e o 5.886 indica ed a heal hy condi ion suppo ed by s ong liquidi y and e ained
ea nings, e lec ing e ec i e in e nal capi al u iliza ion. The company emained inancially sound in 2021, wi h a sco e o 5.350
and imp o ed p o i abili y, signaling consis en ope a ional e iciency and low le e age.
In 2022, he sco e sligh ly dec eased o 4.036, mainly due o lowe p o i abili y, hough liquidi y and equi y posi ions
emained s able. This kep he company wi hin he sa e zone. A no able ebound occu ed in 2023 when he sco e ose o 6.105,
e lec ing egained p o i abili y and in es o con idence. Howe e , in 2024, he sco e d opped sha ply o 0.129, signaling clea
inancial dis ess caused by nega i e liquidi y and p o i abili y p essu es. Despi e his, he down u n appea s o s em mo e om
long- e m asse in es men han ope a ional ine iciency. O e all, he Al man model e ec i ely illus a es bo h esilience and
eme ging dis ess, se ing as a eliable baseline e e ence o compa a i e e alua ion.
4.2.2 G o e Me hod
Table 4. G o e Me hod Resul s (2020–2024)
Desc ip ion
Yea s
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
X1
0,800
0,891
0,925
0,293
-0,629
X2
0,296
0,364
0,107
0,291
0,080
X3
0,228
0,321
0,107
0,261
0,062
G-Sco e
2,389
2,772
1,948
1,536
-0,707
Po en ial
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Dis ess
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5751 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
Compa ed o he Al man Z-Sco e, he G o e model p oduced sligh ly lowe alues h oughou 2020–2023, sugges ing a
mo e conse a i e pe spec i e on inancial s abili y. F om 2020 o 2023, G o e ’s esul s consis en ly indica ed a “heal hy”
condi ion, aligning wi h Al man’s classi ica ion bu showing g ea e sensi i i y o luc ua ions in p o i abili y and liquidi y.
In 2024, bo h models signaled inancial dis ess; howe e , he G o e sco e demons a ed a s eepe decline, indica ing
heigh ened esponsi eness o liquidi y de e io a ion. This pa e n sugges s ha while G o e alida es Al man’s indings, i p o ides
ea lie o sha pe de ec ion o inancial isk unde declining ea nings condi ions. The e o e, G o e can be iewed as a mo e sensi i e
a ian o he Al man amewo k, pa icula ly e ec i e o de ec ing sho - e m inancial s ain.
4.2.3 Sp inga e Me hod
Table 5. Sp inga e Me hod Resul s (2020–2024)
Desc ip ion
Yea s
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
X1
0,800
0,891
0,925
0,293
-0,629
X2
0,296
0,364
0,107
0,291
0,080
X3
-
-
-
2.964,594
0,103
X4
2,902
1,919
1,389
1,581
0,143
S-Sco e
2,895
2,804
1,836
1.958,461
-0,277
Po en ial
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Dis ess
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
The Sp inga e model esul s closely aligned wi h hose o Al man and G o e du ing 2020–2023, main aining a inancially
sound classi ica ion. Howe e , i demons a ed s onge luc ua ions in sco e magni ude, e lec ing i s highe sensi i i y o changes
in wo king capi al and liquidi y.
While bo h Al man and G o e con inued o classi y he company as heal hy un il 2023, Sp inga e’s esul s began o show
ea ly wa ning endencies in la e 2023, emphasizing po en ial sho - e m liquidi y p essu es. In 2024, he model’s sha p decline
con i med he dis ess condi ion, ma ching he pa e n obse ed in Al man and G o e bu wi h mo e p onounced de ia ion. This
indica es ha he Sp inga e model, hough di ec ionally consis en , ends o eac mo e agg essi ely o liquidi y shocks, making i
pa icula ly sui able o en i ies wi h ola ile cu en asse s uc u es.
4.2.4 Ta le Me hod
Table 6. Ta le Me hod Resul s (2020–2024)
Desc ip ion
Yea s
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
X1
-
-
-
-
0,104
X2
-
-
-
-
0,382
X3
-
-
-
-
0,294
X4
2,902
1,919
1,389
1,581
0,143
Z-Sco e
0,464
0,307
0,222
0,253
0,180
Po en ial
Heal hy
Heal hy
G ey A ea
G ey A ea
G ey A ea
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
The Ta le model p o ides a mo e conse a i e in e p e a ion compa ed o he p e ious h ee models. While he Al man,
G o e , and Sp inga e models classi ied he i m as inancially heal hy un il 2023, he Ta le model began signaling cau ion as ea ly
as 2022 by placing he company in a “g ey a ea.” This indica es ha Ta le ’s o mula ion, which places g ea e emphasis on
p o i abili y and le e age a ios, is capable o de ec ing po en ial inancial imbalances ea lie , e en when o e all pe o mance
appea s s able.
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5752 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
By 2024, he Ta le sco e clea ly signaled inancial dis ess, aligning wi h he indings o he o he models bu o e ing
ea lie ecogni ion o eme ging inancial s ain. This demons a es he model’s use ulness as an ea ly wa ning ool o an icipa ing
sol ency issues be o e hey become c i ical. Howe e , i s conse a i e app oach may some imes o e s a e inancial isk du ing
ela i ely s able pe iods, sugges ing ha i s in e p e a ion should be complemen ed by models emphasizing liquidi y and equi y
pe o mance.
4.2.5 Zmijewski Me hod
Table 7. Zmijewski Me hod Resul s (2020–2024)
Desc ip ion
Yea s
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
X1
0,228
0,321
0,107
0,261
0,062
X2
-
-
-
-
0,294
X3
-
-
-
-
0,183
X-Sco e
-5,327
-5,746
-4,780
-5,476
-2,904
Po en ial
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Heal hy
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
The Zmijewski model yielded he mos s able and less ola ile ou comes ac oss all i e yea s. Unlike o he models, i
consis en ly classi ied he company as inancially heal hy h oughou 2020–2024, e en du ing he 2024 down u n. This s abili y
s ems om i s design, which emphasizes long- e m sol ency and p o i abili y a he han sho - e m liquidi y.
When compa ed wi h Al man, G o e , Sp inga e, and Ta le , he Zmijewski model appea s less sensi i e o empo a y
ea nings o liquidi y shocks. While his limi s i s abili y o de ec imminen dis ess, i enhances i s eliabili y o assessing o e all
long- e m inancial sus ainabili y. Consequen ly, Zmijewski se es as a complemen a y model, p o iding a mac o-le el sol ency
iew ha balances he sho - e m ola ili y obse ed in he o he ou models.
4.2.6 Summa y o Compa a i e Model Resul s
Table 8. Resul s o Po en ial Financial Dis ess Analysis
Yea s
Al man
G o e
Sp inga e
Ta le
Zmijewski
(A-Sco e)
(G-Sco e)
(S-Sco e)
(T-Sco e)
(X-Sco e)
2020
5,89
Heal hy
2,39
Heal hy
2,90
Heal hy
0,46
Heal hy
-5,33
Heal hy
2021
5,35
Heal hy
2,77
Heal hy
2,80
Heal hy
0,31
Heal hy
-5,75
Heal hy
2022
4,04
Heal hy
1,95
Heal hy
1,85
Heal hy
0,22
G ey
-4,78
Heal hy
2023
6.105,79
Heal hy
1,54
Heal hy
1.958,46
Heal hy
0,25
G ey
-5,48
Heal hy
2024
0,13
Dis ess
-0,71
Dis ess
-0,28
Dis ess
0,18
G ey
-2,90
Heal hy
Sou ce: Da a p ocessed by esea che s, 2025
Table 8 p esen s he compa a i e esul s o i e inancial dis ess p edic ion models applied o PT Ga uda Indonesia o e
he 2020–2024 pe iod. O e all, he indings show ha he company main ained a consis en ly heal hy inancial posi ion om 2020
o 2023, wi h all models (Al man, G o e , Sp inga e, Ta le , and Zmijewski) classi ying hese yea s wi hin he sa e zone. This
s abili y e lec s he company’s s ong liquidi y, p o i abili y, and e ec i e capi al s uc u e managemen du ing he ea ly obse a ion
pe iod. Howe e , sligh a ia ions began o appea in 2022 and 2023, when he Ta le model ca ego ized he i m in he g ey a ea,
sugges ing an ea ly wa ning o po en ial liquidi y conce ns ha we e no ye cap u ed by o he models.
In 2024, a signi ican di e gence among he models eme ged. The Al man, G o e , and Sp inga e models simul aneously
de ec ed a shi owa d inancial dis ess, as indica ed by hei ma kedly low sco es. This decline was d i en p ima ily by a sha p
all in liquidi y and p o i abili y, implying sho - e m inancial p essu e and educed ope a ional e iciency. Meanwhile, he Ta le
model emained in he g ey a ea, signaling unce ain y a he han immedia e dis ess, and he Zmijewski model con inued o classi y
he company as heal hy. This inconsis ency illus a es undamen al di e ences in model cons uc ion. Al man, G o e , and Sp inga e
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5753 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
emphasize sho - e m liquidi y and ea nings pe o mance, while Ta le and Zmijewski ely mo e on sol ency and long- e m
inancial s abili y.
Taken oge he , he compa a i e analysis e eals ha while all models a e e ec i e in cap u ing o e all inancial heal h, hei
sensi i i y le els a y depending on he unde lying indica o s. The Al man and G o e models appea mo e esponsi e o sudden
shi s in liquidi y and p o i abili y, making hem e ec i e o ea ly dis ess de ec ion. Sp inga e demons a es a simila pa e n bu
applies a mo e conse a i e h eshold, p o iding a balanced and cau ious in e p e a ion o inancial condi ion. In con as , he Ta le
and Zmijewski models end o smoo h sho - e m luc ua ions and ocus mo e on long- e m esilience. These indings sugges ha
combining mul iple models p o ides a mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o inancial s abili y, whe e liquidi y-based models can
signal ea ly isks and sol ency-based models can alida e he company’s long- e m inancial soundness.
5. CONCLUSION
This s udy analyzed he inancial dis ess p edic ion o PT Kha isma Dwi Pe kasa o he 2020–2024 pe iod using i e
models: Al man Z-Sco e, G o e , Sp inga e, Ta le , and Zmijewski. The esul s consis en ly showed ha he company main ained
a heal hy inancial posi ion be ween 2020 and 2023, be o e indica ions o dis ess eme ged in 2024. The Al man, G o e , and
Sp inga e models simul aneously de ec ed a decline in liquidi y and p o i abili y, con i ming sho - e m inancial p essu e.
Meanwhile, he Ta le model showed ea ly wa ning signs h ough i s g ey-a ea classi ica ion, and he Zmijewski model emained
s able, e lec ing he i m’s long- e m sol ency s eng h.
O e all, he indings indica e ha each model cap u es di e en dimensions o inancial pe o mance. Liquidi y-based
models such as Al man, G o e , and Sp inga e a e mo e e ec i e o de ec ing ea ly inancial s ess, while sol ency-o ien ed models
like Ta le and Zmijewski p o ide a b oade iew o long- e m inancial sus ainabili y. The combina ion o bo h model ypes o e s
a mo e comp ehensi e and eliable assessmen o inancial s abili y o medium-sized, amily-owned en e p ises such as PT
Kha isma Dwi Pe kasa.
Fo u u e esea ch, i is ecommended o expand he analysis by applying he same models o a la ge sample o i ms wi hin
simila indus ies o enhance compa a i e alidi y. Inco po a ing mac oeconomic indica o s o using ad anced p edic ion me hods,
such as machine lea ning o panel da a app oaches, may also imp o e he accu acy and obus ness o inancial dis ess assessmen s
in dynamic business en i onmen s.
REFERENCES
1. Ma senne M, Ismail T, Taqi M, Hani ah IA. Financial dis ess p edic ions wi h Al man, Sp inga e, Zmijewski, Ta le and
G o e models. Decision Science Le e s. 2024;13:181-190. doi:10.5267/dsl.2023.10.002
2. Sa i a Hasanah F, Pu i Hasanah A, Budian o E. In e na ional Jou nal o Business, Economics and Social De elopmen
Analysis o Financial Dis ess P edic ion a PT Ga uda Indonesia Tbk o 2020-2023 Using he G o e , Ta le , and
Sp inga e. 2025;6(2):319-329.
3. Suseno BD. SUKSESI PERUSAHAAN KELUARGA BERKELANJUTAN.; 2022.
h ps://www. esea chga e.ne /publica ion/369505287
4. Rias Un ian Hanun CF. Li e a u e Analysis on Financial Dis ess and Bank up cy P edic ion.; 2025. doi:10.70764/gdpu-
.2025.1(1)-02
5. Kompas.com. 7.Pe usahaan di BEI Didominasi Bisnis Kelua ga, Jumlahnya 95 Pe sen_ iles. Money Kompas.
2025;(Jaka a). Accessed No embe 14, 2025. h ps://money.kompas.com/ ead/2025/07/24/182837926/pe usahaan-di-bei-
didominasi-bisnis-kelua ga-jumlahnya-95-pe sen?page=all
6. Wibowo FA, Sa ia A, Gaol SL, Ind awan D. Financial Risk, Deb , and E iciency in Indonesia’s Cons uc ion Indus y: A
Compa a i e S udy o SOEs and P i a e Companies. Jou nal o Risk and Financial Managemen . 2024;17(7).
doi:10.3390/j m17070303
7. Nguyen HO. The Impac o Fo eign Owne ship and he Mode a ing Role o Owne ship Concen a ion on he Financial
Pe o mance o Lis ed Non-Financial Fi ms in Vie nam. Managemen (Mon e ideo). 2025;3:347.
doi:10.62486/agma2025347
In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew
ISSN: 2581-8341
Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
DOI: 10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31, Impac Fac o : 8.048
IJCSRR @ 2025
www.ijcs .o g
5754 *Co esponding Au ho : F.X. Ku niawan Tjak awala Volume 08 Issue 11 No embe 2025
A ailable a : www.ijcs .o g
Page No. 5746-5754
8. Dila S iwahyuni, Peny Cahaya Azwa i, Rachmania. Analisis Pe bandingan Tingka Aku asi Model Al man Z-Sco e,
Sp inga e, Zmijewski, Ta le , dan G o e dalam Memp ediksi Financial Dis ess Pada BPD yang Memiliki UUS Tahun
2019-2024. Published online 2025. doi:10.32502/balance. 10i2.932
9. IAI. PSAK 201: Penyajian Lapo an Keuangan. Ika an Akun an Indonesia; 2022.
10. A iani R, Ku niawan Tjak awala F. In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew The Impac o Audi ed
Financial S a emen Announcemen s on S ock Re u ns and Liquidi y: E idence om LQ45 Companies in Indonesia.
doi:10.47191/ijcs /V8-i6-51
11. P imasa i NS. ANALYSIS ALTMAN Z-SCORE, GROVER SCORE, SPRINGATE AND ZMIJEWSKI AS FINANCIAL
DISTRESS SIGNALING (Empi ical s udy o consume goods indus y in Indonesia). Accoun ing and Managemen
Jou nal. 2017;1(1). doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34759.39844
12. Wau M, Fau JF, Fau FT. The E ec o Financial Fac o s on Financial Dis ess in Manu ac u ing Companies on he IDX.
Jamanika (Ju nal Manajemen Bisnis dan Kewi ausahaan). 2025;5(2):153-165. doi:10.22219/jamanika. 5i2.40727
13. Al man, Edwa d I. FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE
BANKRUPTCY.; 1968.
Ci e his A icle: A iza, M., Ku niawan Tjak awala, F.X. (2025). Analysis o Financial Dis ess P edic ion a PT Kha isma
Dua Pu i o 2020–2024. In e na ional Jou nal o Cu en Science Resea ch and Re iew, 8(11), pp. 5746-5754. DOI:
h ps://doi.o g/10.47191/ijcs /V8-i11-31
