Belarus at a crossroads: attitudes on social and political change

BELARUS AT A CROSSROADS:
ATTITUDES ON SOCIAL
AND POLITICAL CHANGE
Nadja Douglas, Regina Elsne , Félix K awa zek,
Julia Langbein, Gwendolyn Sasse
ZOiS REPORT
No.3 / 2021 · Ma ch 2021
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
2
Con en
02 ___ Execu i e summa y
04 ___ In oduc ion
05 ___ A audulen elec ion ha led o a poli ical awakening
07 ______ Widesp ead pa icipa ion in p o es s
07 ______ Reasons o p o es ing
09 ______ Va ied iews on he p o es s
09 ______ A highly poli icised socie y
11 ___ The pe iphe al oles o ade unions, ci il socie y, and chu ches
11 ______ Independen ade unions
11 ______ O ganised ci il socie y and o mal opposi ion
12 ______ A new isibili y o chu ches
13 ___ Low in e pe sonal and ins i u ional us
13 ______ In e pe sonal us
14 ______ An e osion o ins i u ional us
15 ______ S a e iolence and ea
16 ___ Na ional symbols
16 ______ Red-g een s. whi e- ed-whi e lags
17 ______ The desi e o a bilingual iden i y
18 ___ Democ acy and economic alues
18 ______ Suppo o democ acy and iews on he egime
19 ______ A libe al unde s anding o democ acy
22 ______ Ma ke compe i ion and s a e in e en ion in social issues
23 ______ Libe al economic alues s. a pa e nalis s a e
24 ___ In e na ional ou look: sanc ions and ela ions wi h he EU and Russia
27 ___ Conclusion
27 ___ Imp in
Execu i e summa y
Following mon hs o mass an igo e nmen demons a ions in Bela us, his
epo widens he ocus beyond he p o es e s and akes s ock o he iews and
p e e ences o Bela usian ci izens a a c i ical momen . A new ZOiS su ey
conduc ed in Decembe 2020 among Bela usians aged be ween 16 and 64 e-
eals a e insigh s in o he poli ical and social mood ac oss he coun y, us
in i s ins i u ions, he dynamics o he ecen poli ical mobilisa ion, and he
domes ic and o eign policy p e e ences o Bela usian ci izens.
The main indings a e as ollows:
– The e is an o e all socie al consensus ha he esul o he Augus 2020
Bela usian p esiden ial elec ion was alsi ied in a ou o he incumben .
A ound wo- hi ds o he su ey esponden s pa ly o comple ely ag eed
wi h his s a emen .
– Abou 14 pe cen o esponden s pa icipa ed in p o es s a e he elec ion.
On a na ional scale, ha co esponds o oughly 700,000 people ou o he
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
3
5 million ep esen ed by he su ey. Views on he p o es s a e di e se, ang-
ing om ag eemen o disag eemen ; a sizeable sha e o esponden s did
no exp ess an opinion on he demons a ions.
– Nea ly hal o he esponden s epo ed ha hey pe sonally knew some-
body who had aken pa in he p o es s. The e was widesp ead knowledge
o he con ex and demands o he p o es s, i espec i e o people’s own pa -
icipa ion.
– The su ey con i ms he ex en o which he p o es s we e ca ied by p i-
a e ci izens, a he han o ganised ci il socie y, ade unions, o chu ches,
which played only pe iphe al oles.
– Social and online media domina e socie y’s news consump ion, wi h o e 70
pe cen o esponden s using hese media as hei main sou ce o in o ma-
ion. Bela usian s a e ele ision, Russian media, and in e na ional media
a e used as well bu a e signi ican ly less p ominen as p ima y in o ma-
ion sou ces.
– T us in Bela us’s poli ical ins i u ions in gene al emains weak. Con idence
has no e oded comple ely, bu us in all ins i u ions is on balance nega-
i e, wi h e y simila sco es o he execu i e, he legisla i e, he judicia y,
and he secu i y appa a us. In absolu e numbe s, he opposi ion Coo dina-
ion Council and he O hodox Chu ch a e he mos us ed ins i u ions.
– Violence by he secu i y s uc u es is an impo an issue o ea and conce n
o Bela usian ci izens. In pa icula , hose who had pa icipa ed in p o es s
epo ed ha hey, hei amily membe s, o hei iends had been di ec ly
a ec ed by police iolence.
– Views on he coun y’s na ional lag a e di ided: 41 pe cen o esponden s
saw he cu en ed-g een lag as he app op ia e s a e symbol, whe eas 36
pe cen p e e ed he whi e- ed-whi e lag, which has also become he sym-
bol o he p o es s.
– Conce ns abou pe sonal inances a e widesp ead. Eigh y pe cen o e-
sponden s s a ed ha hey we e e y o somewha conce ned abou hei
pe sonal inances in he six mon hs o come. Economic conside a ions ank
high among people’s poli ical p io i ies, alongside democ a ic expec a ions,
such as ha ing a eal oice in he poli ical p ocess, and he de ence o he
coun y’s independence.
– Suppo o democ acy is une en, e lec ing an idea ional acuum a he
han deep di isions. Mo e han 40 pe cen o esponden s said hey would
p e e o li e in a democ acy, bu abou 30 pe cen did no know wha ype
o go e nmen hey a ou ed.
– Mos esponden s, in pa icula hose who a e p o-democ a ic and c i i-
cal o he cu en egime, we e likely o s ess libe al componen s, such as
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
4
poli ical and ci il igh s, in hei unde s anding o democ acy. Non-p o es -
e s ended o lack a clea unde s anding o democ acy o p e e ed an au-
ho i a ian o m o go e nmen .
– Mos esponden s suppo ed ma ke compe i ion and s a e in e en ion in
social issues. P o es e s we e mo e likely o suppo libe al economic al-
ues, while non-p o es e s p e e ed a pa e nalis s a e ha ensu es social
secu i y and equali y.
– In e ms o o eign policy p e e ences, ela ions wi h bo h he Eu opean Un-
ion (EU) and Russia a e conside ed impo an . Mos esponden s a ou ed
close economic links wi h Russia, bu no u he poli ical in eg a ion. Easie
a el o he EU igu ed p ominen ly among expec a ions is-à- is he Eu o-
pean Union.
– Mig a ion in en ions loom la ge: abou hal o esponden s said ha hey
we e conside ing lea ing hei ci y. O hose, abou 34 pe cen would p e e
o mo e o an EU coun y.
In oduc ion1
Bela usians ha e li ed h ough a mos ex ao dina y yea . In ea ly 2020, he
Co id-19 pandemic hi Bela us badly, as i s leade ship epea edly mocked
he i us and dec ied wha i saw as hys e ical eac ions o he pandemic
in Wes e n coun ies. Then, he Augus 2020 p esiden ial elec ion ga e ise
o he mos signi ican poli ical mobilisa ion since he coun y gained inde-
pendence om he So ie Union in 1991. The o icial elec ion esul was a
ei e a ion o he p e ious supe majo i ies ha Bela usian p esiden Aliak-
sand Lukashenka has egula ly claimed since his i s elec ion in 1994. Bu
his ime a ound, wi h a c edible p esiden ial challenge in S ia lana Tsikh-
anouskaya, pa s o socie y we e no eady o accep he o icial ou come.
The bla an alsi ica ion o he elec ion esul has been widely documen ed
and is known o mos Bela usians.2 The elec o al manipula ion and he im-
media e iolence agains he i s p o es e s mobilised hund eds o housands
o people o ake o he s ee s. O e six mon hs la e , he p o es s con inue in
he o m o smalle ma ches and neighbou hood ac ions, bu elen less ep es-
sion has o ced he p o es e s o he s ee s, cu ailed independen domes ic
epo ing o he demons a ions, and, in u n, di e ed in e na ional a en ion.
Gi en he ep essi e egime in Bela us, i is nea ly impossible o ga he eli-
able da a on he public mood ac oss he coun y. This epo p esen s he
1 The au ho s g a e ully acknowledge he excellen esea ch assis ance p o ided by Nadja
Sie e in he p epa a ion and analysis o he su ey da a, and a e also hank ul o Willi
S iege o his able suppo . The su ey e e ed o in his ZOiS Repo was unded by he
Ge man Fede al Fo eign O ice. The in e p e a ion e lec s he au ho s’ iews.
2 Wol gang Benedek, ‘OSCE Rappo eu ’s Repo unde he Moscow Mechanism on Alleged
Human Righ s Viola ions ela ed o he P esiden ial Elec ions o 9 Augus 2020 in Bela us’,
O ganiza ion o Secu i y and Co-ope a ion in Eu ope (OSCE), 29 Oc obe 2020 h ps://www.
osce.o g/ iles/ /documen s/2/b/469539.pd .
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
5
esul s o one o he i s la ge su eys o poli ical and social iews ca ied
ou since he s a o he mass p o es s.3 In iew o sa e y conce ns, he su -
ey was ca ied ou online om 16 o 29 Decembe 2020. Jus o e 2,000 Be-
la usians aged be ween 16 and 64 and li ing in ci ies wi h mo e han 20,000
inhabi an s esponded o he ques ionnai e. The esponden s we e chosen
based on quo as o age, gende , and place o esidence o achie e a ep e-
sen a i e sample o hese socio-demog aphic cha ac e is ics.
Telephone su eys, which may ha e allowed o he inclusion o he oldes
membe s o socie y, a e no longe sa e o conduc unde he ci cums ances.
The quali y o he esponse da a would also ha e been in doub . The online
su ey, ca ied ou o his epo , p o ides one o he i s insigh s since he
elec ion in o people’s a i udes owa ds ongoing social and poli ical de elop-
men s and hei isions o he u u e.
A audulen elec ion ha led o a poli ical
awakening
Ac oss Bela us, 65 pe cen o hose su eyed pa ly o comple ely ag eed
ha he 2020 p esiden ial elec ion esul had been alsi ied in a ou o he
incumben . In pa icula , he be e -educa ed u ban class sha ed his iew,
which was mo e p e alen among male esponden s. O he people sampled,
74 pe cen indica ed ha hey had o ed in he elec ion, compa ed wi h he
o icial u nou o 84 pe cen .4
The ac ual ou come o he con es ed elec ion may ne e be known. In ou
su ey, abou 53 pe cen o hose who o ed said hey had op ed o Tsikha-
nouskaya, and abou 18 pe cen o Lukashenka. FIGURE 1 A close look a
3 ZOiS has conduc ed h ee p e ious s udies in Bela us ocusing on people aged 34 o younge .
See, o ins ance, Félix K awa zek, ‘You h in Bela us: Ou look on Li e and Poli ical A i udes’,
Cen e o Eas Eu opean and In e na ional S udies (ZOiS), Repo 5 / 2019, 24 Oc obe 2019,
h ps://en.zois-be lin.de/publica ions/you h-in-bela us-ou look-on-li e-and-poli ical-a i udes.
4 Soobshcheniye Tsen al’noy komissii Respubliki Bela us’, ‘Ob i ogakh ybo o p eziden a
espubliki Bela us’ 2020 godu’, 14 Augus 2020, h p://www. ec.go .by/ iles/2020/in 9.pd
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 1
Which candida e o he p esidency did you o e o ?*
Response a io n
S ia lanaTsikhanouskaya 52.50% 779
Aliaksand Lukashenka 17.60% 262
And eiDzmi yeu 1.50% 22
Sia heiChe achen 1.10% 17
HannaKanapa skaya 0.30% 5
Agains all/
spoiledballo 8.40% 124
Re used 18.60% 276
52.5%
17.6%
1.5%
1.1%
0.3%
8.4%
18.6%
S ia lana Tsikhanouskaya
Aliaksand Lukashenka
And ei Dzmi yeu
Sia hei Che achen
Hanna Kanapa skaya
Agains all / spoiled ballo
Re used
Which candica e o he p esidency did you o e o ?
Quelle:
n=1,485
Quelle:
n = 1.485
*The sum o he ounded pe cen ages in he epo may di e ge sligh ly om 100 pe cen .

ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
6
hese esponses e eals ha Lukashenka’s suppo was highes among olde
and emale esponden s, people li ing in small ci ies, people wi h highe
household incomes, and indi iduals who decla e hemsel es o be ollowe s
o he O hodox Chu ch. Meanwhile, being male, being a s uden , li ing in a
la ge ci y, o wo king in he p i a e sec o co ela ed posi i ely wi h o ing
o Tsikhanouskaya.
When asked abou he easons o hei o e choice, he la ges sha e o
hose who had o ed o Tsikhanouskaya said hey wan ed o exp ess hei
disapp o al o he incumben . Those who had o ed o Lukashenka, by con-
as , indica ed ha hey did so because o a lack o an a ac i e al e na i e.
FIGURE 2 This easoning is impo an : a me e qua e o he people who
o ed o Lukashenka did so because he ep esen ed hei poli ical iews. A
o e o Tsikhanouskaya was p ima ily a o e agains he incumben .
The audulen elec ion igge ed mon hs o an igo e nmen p o es s. To
gain a deepe unde s anding o he p o es mo emen , ou su ey explo ed
he de ining cha ac e is ics and mo i a ions o he p o es e s, a i udes o-
wa ds he demons a ions, and he b oade poli icisa ion o Bela usian so-
cie y.
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 2
Why did you o e o he candida e?
S ia lanaTsikhanouskaya(52.5%)
Aliaksand Lukashenka(17.6%)
And eiDzmi yeu(1.5%)
Sia heiChe achen(1.1%)
HannaKanapa skaya(0.3%)
S ia lanaTsikhanouskaya(52.5%)
Rep esen smypoli ical
iews 129 83 12 4 1 18%
The ewasnoa ac i e
al e na i e 111 131 3 0 1 15%
Toexp essdisapp o alo
heincumben 436 0 3 0 1 59%
My iendsand amily o ed o  hispe son 18 22 0 3 0 2%
O he 19 5 0 5 1 3%
Don' know 24 7 2 1 1 3%
Re used 0 14 2 4 0 0%
1043 737 262 22 17 5
Ges apel eBalkene o de njaAn eileundau de Skalas eh de We 1,alsohabeichdieAn eilebe echne .Wi habensons eineKommas elle,wü deichhie auchangeben.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
S ia lana Tsikhanouskaya (52.5 %)
Aliaksand Lukashenka (17.6 %)
And ei Dzmi yeu (1.5 %)
Sia hei Che achen (1.1 %)
Hanna Kanapa skaya (0.3 %)
Rep esen smypoliScal iews The ewasnoaT acS eal e naS e Toexp essdisapp o alo  heincumben  My iendsand amily o ed o  hispe son O he  Don' know Re used
S ia lanaTsikhanouskaya(52.5%)
Aliaksand Lukashenka(17.6%)
And eiDzmi yeu(1.5%)
Sia heiChe achen(1.1%)
HannaKanapa skaya(0.3%)
S ia lanaTsikhanouskaya(52.5%)
Rep esen smypoli ical
iews 129 83 12 4 1 18%
The ewasnoa ac i e
al e na i e 111 131 3 0 1 15%
Toexp essdisapp o alo
heincumben 436 0 3 0 1 59%
My iendsand amily o ed o  hispe son 18 22 0 3 0 2%
O he 19 5 0 5 1 3%
Don' know 24 7 2 1 1 3%
Re used 0 14 2 4 0 0%
1043 737 262 22 17 5
Ges apel eBalkene o de njaAn eileundau de Skalas eh de We 1,alsohabeichdieAn eilebe echne .Wi habensons eineKommas elle,wü deichhie auchangeben.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
S ia lana Tsikhanouskaya (52.5 %)
Aliaksand Lukashenka (17.6 %)
And ei Dzmi yeu (1.5 %)
Sia hei Che achen (1.1 %)
Hanna Kanapa skaya (0.3 %)
Rep esen smypoliScal iews The ewasnoaT acS eal e naS e Toexp essdisapp o alo  heincumben  My iendsand amily o ed o  hispe son O he  Don' know Re used
Rep esen s my poli ical iews
The e was no a ac i e al e na i e
To exp ess disapp o al o he incumben
My iends and amily o ed o his pe son
O he
Don’ know
Re used
n = 1,085
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
7
Widesp ead pa icipa ion in p o es s
Pic u es o housands o people on he s ee s o Bela us domina ed media
co e age o he coun y o a good pa o 2020. Acco ding o ou da a, 14
pe cen o Bela usians ha e pa icipa ed in p o es s since he p esiden ial
elec ion. FIGURE 3 Jus unde 6 pe cen o hose su eyed e used o say
whe he hey had aken pa , which migh e lec esponden s’ conce ns
abou answe ing such a ques ion hones ly.
Ou da a also show ha in pa icula , people aged 18 – 29 we e o e - ep-
esen ed among he p o es e s: hey made up 28 pe cen o he p o es e s
in ou sample bu only 23 pe cen o he o e all sample. Mo eo e , while
he p o es s we e led by p i a e-sec o wo ke s, signi ican numbe s o
people employed in s a e se ice sec o s — heal hca e, educa ion, and cul-
u e — we e also in ol ed. Be e -educa ed indi iduals and hose li ing in
la ge ci ies we e mo e likely o ha e pa icipa ed in he p o es s. Among he
esponden s, 11 pe cen o men bu only 8 pe cen o women said hey had
aken pa . The e had al eady been nume ous solida i y ac ions and dem-
ons a ions in suppo o independen candida es in he un-up o he 2020
p esiden ial elec ion; people in hei wen ies we e pa icula ly in ol ed in
hese e en s as well.
This le el o pa icipa ion is ema kable compa ed wi h p e ious cases o
mobilisa ion. Ea lie ZOiS su eys among people aged 16 – 34 ound ha
a ound 3 pe cen o his age g oup had pa icipa ed in ea lie p o es s.5
Mass p o es s ha e a mobilising e ec beyond hose who ac i ely ake pa .
Nea ly hal o he esponden s in ou la es su ey s a ed ha hey knew
someone who had pa icipa ed in he p o es s. In pa icula , men and people
li ing in la ge ci ies a e likely o know p o es e s, as a e he be e edu-
ca ed and hose o whom social media a e he main sou ce o in o ma ion.
Reasons o p o es ing
Mos people who joined he p o es s did so igh a e he con es ed elec-
ion in Augus — o e en be o e i . Only e y ew p o es e s — a ound 10
pe cen — go in ol ed in Sep embe o la e . The elec ion and he egime’s
ha sh esponse o i b ough people on o he s ee s, and he su ey dem-
ons a es how quickly people made up hei minds abou he coun y’s po-
li ical si ua ion and whe he o no o ake pa in he p o es s. Hal o he
p o es e s among ou esponden s desc ibed hemsel es as occasional pa -
icipan s; he o he s we e ei he e y commi ed weekly o e en daily p o-
es e s o in equen pa icipan s. FIGURE 4
The daily p o es e s did no di e om he o e all sample in e ms o hei
age, hei gende , o he size o he ci y hey li ed in. One dis inguishing
cha ac e is ic o he daily p o es e s was ha hey li ed by hemsel es. The
equen demons a o s also indica ed ha hei social us had inc eased
o e he pas six mon hs, e lec ing he uni ing expe ience o p o es s.
5 Félix K awa zek, ‘You h in Bela us: Ou look on Li e and Poli ical A i udes’, Cen e o Eas
Eu opean and In e na ional S udies (ZOiS), Repo 5 / 2019, 24 Oc obe 2019, h ps://en.zois-
be lin.de/publica ions/you h-in-bela us-ou look-on-li e-and-poli ical-a i udes
Sou ce: ZOiS
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 3
Pa icipa ion in p o es s since he
p esiden ial elec ion
FIGURE 4
How o en ha e you aken pa in
he p o es s?
Pa icipa ioninp o es ssince hep esiden ialelec ion
a io
Yes 14.10%
No 80.10%
Re used 5.70%
n=2,004
14.1%
80.1%
5.7%
Yes
No
Re used
Pa icipa ion in p o es s since he
p esiden ial elec ion
Qu
elle
Sou ce:
Own da a
Qu
elle
Howo enha eyou akenpa in hep o es s?
a io
Onadailyo weeklybasis
24.70%
Occasionally 46.60% n=283
Ve y a ely 23.30%
Re used 5.30%
24.7%
46.6%
23.3%
5.3%
On a daily o
weekly basis
Occasionally
Ve y a ely
Re used
How o en ha e you aken pa in
he p o es s?
n
=
Qu
elle
Qu
elle
n = 2,004
n = 2,004
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
8
The mos equen ly gi en eason o aking pa in p o es s was shock a
he iolence agains p o es e s. This unde lines he ac ha ep ession in
an age o social media is a isky s a egy o an au oc a ic egime, as he
ci cula ion o images o iolence may encou age e en mo e people o ake
o he s ee s, including he pa en s and g andpa en s o he ini ial inju ed
and a es ed p o es e s. Twen y pe cen o esponden s epo ed ha hey,
hei amily membe s, o hei iends had been di ec ly a ec ed by he io-
lence. Young people and indi iduals om Minsk and ci ies in he wes o Be-
la us ended o s a e mo e equen ly ha hey had endu ed s a e iolence.
O he mo i a ions o p o es ing we e a wish o ha e one’s oice hea d and
a desi e o demons a e he uni y o he na ion. In iew o he ex emely
high le els o s a e iolence, a ound 40 pe cen o he p o es e s in ou sam-
ple said hey had ini ially been a aid o join he p o es s bu had g adually
los hei ea . Abou 25 pe cen ei he became mo e a aid he longe hey
ook pa in p o es s o s opped p o es ing ou o ea . Ano he qua e o
esponden s said hey had ne e been a aid o p o es .
Reasons o no pa icipa ing in p o es s in a con ex whe e a signi ican
pa o socie y is mobilised a e also elling. The da a allow o a dis inc ion
be ween h ee g oups. Fi s , some people clea ly opposed he p o es s, ei-
he because hey belie ed ha p o es e s o en hide hei ue mo i es o
because hey hough ha p o es s do no change any hing. Second, some
esponden s unde lined hei ea o pa icipa ing in he p o es s and said
ha hey would ha e wan ed o ge in ol ed. A hi d g oup decla ed ha
hey we e simply no in e es ed in poli ics. FIGURE 5
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 5
Why did you no ake pa in he cu en p o es s?
Whydidyouno  akepa in hecu en p o es s?
F equency Reason
P o es sdon' changeany hing 374 P o es sdon' changeany hing
I isgene allydange ous o
pa icipa einp o es s
404
I isgene allydange ous opa icipa einp o es s
Thosewhogoou  op o es o enhide hei  uemo i es
387
Thosewhogoou  op o es o enhide hei  uemo i es
I'mno in e es edinpoli ics 337 I'mno in e es edinpoli ics
Iwouldha ejoined hecu en p o es sbu Iwasa aid odoso
191
Iwouldha ejoined hecu en p o es sbu Iwasa aid odoso
My eligiondoesno allow hepa icipa ioninp o es
20
My eligiondoesno allow hepa icipa ioninp o es
Don' know 222 DK
Re used 116 Re used
2051
374
404
387
337
191
20
222
116
P o es s don' change any hing
I is gene ally dange ous o
pa icipa e in p o es s
Those who go ou o p o es o en
hide hei ue mo i es
I'm no in e es ed in poli ics
I would ha e joined he cu en
p o es s bu I was a aid o do so
My eligion does no allow he
pa icipa ion in p o es
Don' know
Re used
Why did you no ake pa in he cu en p o es s?
Quelle: ZOiS

The mos equen
eason o aking pa
in p o es s was shock
a he iolence agains
p o es e s.
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
9
Va ied iews on he p o es s
Bela usians’ iews on he p o es s a e di ided, highligh ing ha he oppo-
si ion mo emen has no been able o uni e all o he us a ion wi h he
egime. FIGURE 6 Twen y-nine pe cen o esponden s s a ed ha hey com-
ple ely ag eed wi h he p o es e s’ demands, bu ano he 20 pe cen com-
ple ely disag eed, while 19 pe cen had no opinion. The numbe o people
who ag eed wi h he p o es s was lowe han he numbe who el us a ed
wi h he egime.
Ne e heless, he da a show widesp ead ag eemen wi h he non iolen
s a egy chosen by he p o es e s. Mo e han hal o esponden s suppo ed
such a s a egy, and only a ound 5 pe cen said hey would ha e wan ed he
p o es s o be ei he a li le mo e o signi ican ly mo e adical. A la ge sha e
o hose su eyed, howe e , did no know how o answe his ques ion.
A highly poli icised socie y
Beyond pa icipa ion in p o es s, he o e all le el o socie al poli icisa ion
in Bela us is high. Fi y-se en pe cen o su ey esponden s epo ed an
inc ease in hei le el o poli ical in e es in ecen mon hs. This end is no
d i en by he younge gene a ion, as highe age co ela ed wi h a highe
deg ee o sel - epo ed poli ical in e es . In pa icula , people in u ban se -
ings epo ed ha hei poli ical in e es had gone up, whe eas his was less
likely among hose who sel -iden i ied as eligious.
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 6
How do you iew he ongoing p o es s agains he esul o he elec ion?
Howdoyou iew heongoingp o es sagains  he esul o  heelec ion?
a io
Icomple elyag eewi h hem 29.10%
Isomewha ag eewi h hem 16.30%
Isomewha disag eewi h hem 11.60%
Icomple elydisag eewi h hem 19.70%
Don' know 18.90%
Re used 4.30%
Why did you no ake pa in he cu en p o es s?
Quelle: ZOiS

29.1%
16.3%
11.6%
19.7%
18.9%
4.3%
I comple ely ag ee wi h hem
I somewha ag ee wi h hem
I somewha disag ee wi h hem
I comple ely disag ee wi h hem
Don' know
Re used
Why did you no ake pa in he cu en p o es s?
Quelle: ZOiS

n = 2,004
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
16
las . FIGURE 13 No able igge s o pas p o es s we e socio-economic g ie -
ances, o example he law on ‘social pa asi ism’, and poli ical igh s, such
as he igh o ee and ai elec ions. The unp eceden ed le el o police io-
lence and con inued b u ali y in p e- ial de en ion cen es and p isons in
ecen mon hs a e clea ly e lec ed in cu en concep ions o igh s.
Na ional symbols
The ongoing p o es mo emen has highligh ed se e al clea ages in Bela u-
sian socie y ha ela e o undamen al elemen s o na ional iden i y. Two
pa icula issues s and ou : lags and language.
Red-g een s. whi e- ed-whi e lags
The 2020 p o es s s a ed wi hou any e e ence o na ional lags, bu quick-
ly he colou s ed and whi e — hose o he lag o he ea ly pos -So ie in-
dependen s a e o Bela us — came o symbolise opposi ion o he egime,
which subsequen ly banned displays o he colou s. Du ing he i s mon h
o he demons a ions, whi e- ed-whi e lags we e p esen alongside he cu -
en ed-g een lag, which was ein oduced om he So ie pe iod in 1995.
The use o he wo lags side by side was mean o symbolise he inclusi e-
ness o he p o es mo emen and o Bela usian iden i y mo e gene ally.
Ou su ey shows ambi alence abou he ue na ional colou s o he Bela-
usian s a e: abou 41 pe cen o esponden s said ha he ed-g een lag
was mos sui able, 36 pe cen chose he whi e- ed-whi e s anda d, and 20
pe cen could no choose be ween he wo.
The eha ebeencaseswhe e heau ho i iesha ea bi a ily io a ed he igh so ci izensin ecen mon hs.Whichpe sonal igh sa emos impo an  oyoupe sonally?
F equency
F equencyPe cen
Va ID Fi s choice
1 957 485 66.40% F14B_1
Righ  ophysicalin eg i yandpe sonalsecu i y
66.40%
1 357 673 34.70% F14B_2
Poli ical igh s( eedomo speech, eedomo assembly, eedomo in o ma ion)
34.70%
1 281 440 39.00% F14B_3
Socio-economic igh s( igh  ohousing,wo k,educa ion,heal hca e,socialp o ec ion)
39.00%
1 9 6 60.00% F14B_96 O he 60.00%
1604
P ozen sä zebezogensichau diejeweiligeAn wo ???
957
357
281
9
485
673
440
6
Righ o physical in eg i y and
pe sonal secu i y
Poli ical igh s ( eedom o speech,
eedom o assembly,
eedom o in o ma ion)
Socio-economic igh s ( igh o housing,
wo k, educa ion, heal h ca e,
social p o ec ion)
Da en eihe1 Da en eihe2
Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 13
Which igh s a e mos impo an o you pe sonally?
Fi s Choice
Second Choice
O he

ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
17
These p e e ences all in o dis inc ca ego ies along poli ical aul lines:
women; esponden s om smalle ci ies; employees in he go e nmen sec-
o , he police, o he mili a y; less educa ed indi iduals; ollowe s o he
O hodox Chu ch; and people who desc ibed hei iden i y as ‘Russian’ we e
mo e likely o a ou he cu en ed-g een lag. Responden s in hese ca -
ego ies also exhibi ed highe us in he Lukashenka egime.
Bo h lags a e associa ed wi h a sense o na ional uni y, bu he whi e- ed-
whi e lag, which ha ks back o Bela us’s b ie pe iod o independence a -
e Wo ld Wa I, is seen mo e as a symbol o hope, a new poli ical begin-
ning, and he con inua ion o Bela usian independence. Meanwhile, mo e
esponden s desc ibed he ed-g een lag as bo h he ue na ional colou s
o Bela us and he p ese a ion o So ie he i age.
The desi e o a bilingual iden i y
The Russian language clea ly domina es public li e in Bela us.  F I G U R E 1 4
Ne e heless, when asked abou hei na i e language — a symbolic ca ego-
y ha is no he same as he language ac ually spoken in public o p i a e
li e — 47 pe cen o esponden s named Russian as hei na i e language,
and abou 41 pe cen conside ed bo h Bela usian and Russian hei na i e
languages. Bilingualism was mo e p ominen among younge people, ol-
lowe s o he O hodox Chu ch and, e en mo e so, he P o es an and Ca ho-
lic Chu ches, and hose who exp essed a desi e o speak mo e Bela usian
in public. The la e inding indica es ha he wish o mo e space o he
Bela usian language si s com o ably wi h a bilingual iden i y. Only 12 pe
cen o esponden s de ined Bela usian as hei na i e language. They we e
mo e likely o be male and mo e u ban.
A la ge majo i y o esponden s mos ly spoke Russian, bu he Bela usian
language ca ied a ce ain symbolic alue, which was pa icula ly high
among poli ically in e es ed and social media-sa y esponden s.
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 14
Wha language would you spon aneously speak in he ollowing si ua ions:
Bela usian O he Re usedDon’ knowRussian
Wha languagewouldyouspon aneouslyspeakin he ollowingsi ua ions:
Buyingp oduc s
Dinne wi h amily
Du inga
b eakin
school/
uni e si y/
wo k
Mee ingwi h iends
Con ac inglocaladminis a ion
Bela usian 109 146 116 109 80 Bela usian
Russian 1830 1770 1799 1797 1845 Russian
O he 19 40 32 36 26 O he
DK 31 38 46 47 44 DK
Re used 15 10 11 15 9 Re used
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Buying p oduc s
Dinne wi h amily
,Du ing a b eak in school /
uni e si y / wo k
Mee ing wi h iends
Con ac ing local adminis a ion
Wha language would you spon aneously speak in he
ollowing si ua ions:
Bela usian Russian O he DK Re used
n = 2,004
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
18
Abou a hi d o hose su eyed exp essed a wish o speak mo e Bela u-
sian in public, whe eas abou 48 pe cen did no , and some 23 pe cen did
no ca e abou his issue. FIGURE 15 Wi h he excep ion o age, which did
no shape he answe s o his ques ion, he socio-demog aphic p o iles o
hose who wan o speak mo e Bela usian in public we e simila o hose o
esponden s who said Bela usian was hei sole na i e language. Addi ion-
ally, people who said hey had become mo e in e es ed in poli ics in ecen
mon hs we e mo e likely o oice his desi e.
Democ acy and economic alues
Bela us’s poli ical awakening has h own up many ques ions abou wha
so o coun y Bela usians wan o li e in. To se ecen e en s in he b oad-
e con ex o he gene al poli ical and economic de elopmen o Bela us, ou
su ey explo ed how ci izens unde s and democ acy and pe cei e he ole
o s a e in e en ion in social issues.
Suppo o democ acy and iews on he egime
Answe s o he su ey ques ions on suppo o democ acy e eal a mixed
pic u e. Nea ly 42 pe cen o esponden s p e e ed democ acy o any o he
kind o go e nmen ; only 13 pe cen explici ly s a ed ha an au ho i a ian
go e nmen was some imes p e e able o democ acy; 9 pe cen said ha
he ype o go e nmen did no ma e o hem.
Nea ly one- hi d o hose su eyed did no know how o answe he ques-
ion abou hei p e e ed o m o go e nmen ( FIGURE 16), sugges ing ha
he concep o democ acy may be oo abs ac o hem. Younge , emale,
and less educa ed indi iduals who a ely use social media we e mo e likely
o all in o his ca ego y, as we e hose li ing in smalle ci ies who had no
pe sonal expe ience o , o suppo o , p o es s.
Wouldyoulike ospeakmo eBela usianinpublic?
Re used 1.20%
No 47.70%
Ido
no ca e 23.40%
Yes 27.70%
Ido
no ca e 23.4%
No 47.7%
Re used 1.2%
Yes 27.7%
n=2,004
1.2%
47.7%
23.4%
27.7%
Re used
No
I do no ca e
Yes
Would you like o speak mo e Bela usian
in public?
Quell
e:
Quell
e:
Quell
e:
Quell
e:
Sou ce:
Own da a
Quell
e:
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 15
Would you like o speak mo e
Bela usian in public?
Peopleo encompa edemoc a icandnon-democ a ic egimes.
Whicho  he ollowings a emen sdoyouag eewi h hemos ?
Response a io
Democ acyisp e e able oanyo he kindo go e nmen 41.80%
Fo peoplelikeme,i doesn’ ma e whe he weha eademoc a ic
o non-democ a ic egime
8.50%
Unde someci cums ances,
anau ho i a iango e nmen canbep e e able oademoc a icone
13.10%
Don' know 32.50%
Re used 4.10%
41.8%
8.5%
13.1%
32.5%
4.1%
Democ acy is p e e able o any
o he kind o go e nmen
Fo people like me, i doesn’ ma e
whe he we ha e a democ a ic o non-
democ a ic egime
Unde some ci cums ances,
an au ho i a ian go e nmen can be
p e e able o a democ a ic one
Don' know
Re used
Would you say ha you us in people you mee o he fi s ime inc eased
o dec eased du ing he pas six mon hs?
Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

n=1,485

Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 16
Which o he ollowing s a emen s do you ag ee wi h he mos ?
n = 2,004
n = 2,004
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
19
Responden s who did no know wha ype o go e nmen hey p e e ed
sha ed simila i ies wi h hose who belie ed ha an au oc acy was some-
imes p e e able o a democ acy. In pa icula , hey ended o be male, be
less likely o use social media, and ha e no pe sonal expe ience o p o es s.
Responden s who p e e ed an au oc acy we e also mo e likely o oppose
he p o es s and us he p esiden han hose who could no make a clea
choice o a pa icula ype o go e nmen .
Democ acy suppo e s, by con as , we e mo e likely han o he g oups o
ha e expe ience o p o es s o , a leas , a suppo i e a i ude owa ds hem.
Male esponden s we e also mo e likely o suppo democ acy. Fu he , his
g oup ended o include hose who li e in bigge ci ies, a e be e educa ed,
use social media, and a e no O hodox.
In sum, ou da a sugges ha p o es e s a e mo e likely o suppo democ-
acy, while people who some imes p e e an au oc a ic o m o go e nmen
suppo he incumben egime. Those who canno make a clea choice o o
agains democ acy a e sligh ly mo e suppo i e o Lukashenka. Thus, he
p esence o an idea ional acuum among mo e han 30 pe cen o espond-
en s may con ibu e o s abilising Bela us’s exis ing egime.
A libe al unde s anding o democ acy
Despi e he abs ac na u e o democ acy o some Bela usians, ou da a con-
ey ha people ha e s ong expec a ions o conc e e poli ical changes, such
as ‘new elec ions’. FIGURE 17 and ‘gi ing ci izens a eal oice in he poli ical
ResponseNume ical
F equency
F equencyPe cen
Va ID
Fi s choice(N=1,592)
Secondchoice(N=866)
1 686 44.9% H1Answe 1
Newelec ions
44.90% 40.80%
2 317 20.7% H1Answe 1
Cons i u ional e o ms
20.70% 22.70%
3 195 12.8% H1Answe 1
T ans e o powe  o heCoo dina ionCouncil
12.80% 16.50%
4 125 8.2% H1Answe 1
T ans e o powe  oS ia lanaTsikhanouskaya
8.20% 8.90%
5 157 10.3% H1Answe 1
Rep essiono p o es sbyBela usiansecu i y o ces
10.30% 5.90%
6 32 2.1% H1Answe 1
Rep essiono p o es sbyRussiansecu i y o ces
2.10% 2.80%
96 17 1.1% H1Answe 1 O he 1.10% 2.40%
1 353 40.8% H1Answe 2
Newelec ions
Secondchoice(N=866)
2 197 22.7% H1Answe 2
Cons i u ional e o ms
Secondchoice(N=866)
3 143 16.5% H1Answe 2
T ans e o powe  o heCoo dina ionCouncil
Secondchoice(N=866)
4 77 8.9% H1Answe 2
T ans e o powe  oS ia lanaTsikhanouskaya
Secondchoice(N=866)
5 51 5.9% H1Answe 2
Rep essiono p o es sbyBela usiansecu i y o ces
Secondchoice(N=866)
6 24 2.8% H1Answe 2
Rep essiono p o es sbyRussiansecu i y o ces
Secondchoice(N=866)
96 21 2.4% H1Answe 2 O he Secondchoice(N=866)
44.9%
20.7%
12.8%
8.2%
10.3%
2.1%
1.1%
40.8%
22.7%
16.5%
8.9%
5.9%
2.8%
2.4%
New elec ions
Cons i u ional e o ms
T ans e o powe o he
Coo dina ion Council
T ans e o powe o S ia lana
Tsikhanouskaya
Rep ession o p o es s by
Bela usian secu i y o ces
Rep ession o p o es s by Russian
secu i y o ces
O he
Fi s choice (N = 1,592) Second choice (N = 866)
Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 17
Wha ou come o he coun y’s cu en poli ical c isis do you suppo mos ly?
Fi s Choice (n = 1,592)
Second Choice (n = 866)
P o es e s a e mo e
likely o suppo
democ acy.
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
20
p ocess’. FIGURE 18 To di e en ia e be ween a libe al and an egali a ian
unde s anding o democ acy, we asked esponden s o iden i y wha hey
saw as he essen ial cha ac e is ics o democ acy. A libe al unde s anding
emphasises ci il libe ies and he ule o law. An egali a ian unde s and-
ing, meanwhile, conside s he igh agains socio-economic inequali ies as
essen ial o a democ acy, because hei p esence is seen as a majo impedi-
men o he exe cise o poli ical igh s and ci il libe ies.14
14 Michael Coppedge, S a an Lindbe g, S end-E ik Skaaning, Jan Teo ell, ‘Measu ing high
le el democ a ic p inciples using he V-Dem Da a’, wo king pape 6, Va ie ies o Democ acy
Ins i u e, May 2015.
ResponseNume ical Response F equencyPe cen
S ongleade shipwi hinBela us
Gi ing
Bela usian
ci izensa eal
oice
in he
poli ical
p ocess
1
S ongleade shipwi hinBela us
35.20% Fi s Choice 51 289
2
S ongleade shipwi hinBela us
30.30%
SecondChoice
44 200
3
S ongleade shipwi hinBela us
34.50% Thi dChoice 50 181
1
Gi ingBela usianci izensa eal oicein hepoli icalp ocess
43.10% Fi s Choice
2
Gi ingBela usianci izensa eal oicein hepoli icalp ocess
29.90% SecondChoice
3
Gi ingBela usianci izensa eal oicein hepoli icalp ocess
27.00% Thi dChoice
1
P o ec ingmybasicma e ialsecu i y
45.20% Fi s Choice
2
P o ec ingmybasicma e ialsecu i y
32.50% SecondChoice
3
P o ec ingmybasicma e ialsecu i y
22.30% Thi dChoice
1
Imp o emen o myli ings anda ds
48.00% Fi s Choice
2
Imp o emen o myli ings anda ds
26.70% SecondChoice
3
Imp o emen o myli ings anda ds
25.30% Thi dChoice
1
An i-co up ion e o ms
22.30% Fi s Choice
2
An i-co up ion e o ms
33.30% SecondChoice
3
An i-co up ion e o ms
44.40% Thi dChoice
1
En i onmen alp o ec ion
20.20% Fi s Choice
2
En i onmen alp o ec ion
28.80% SecondChoice
3
En i onmen alp o ec ion
51.00% Thi dChoice
1
De enseo Bela usianindependence
50.20% Fi s Choice
2
De enseo Bela usianindependence
26.00% SecondChoice
3
De enseo Bela usianindependence
23.80% Thi dChoice
1
Ensu ing he igh  o eedomo assemblyanddemons a ion
23.20% Fi s Choice
2
Ensu ing he igh  o eedomo assemblyanddemons a ion
26.00% SecondChoice
3
Ensu ing he igh  o eedomo assemblyanddemons a ion
50.90% Thi dChoice
1
Ensu ing heindependenceo  hejudicia y
24.60% Fi s Choice
2
Ensu ing heindependenceo  hejudicia y
40.50% SecondChoice
3
Ensu ing heindependenceo  hejudicia y
34.90% Thi dChoice
1
Mul ipa ysys emde elopmen
14.20% Fi s Choice
2
Mul ipa ysys emde elopmen
25.90% SecondChoice
3
Mul ipa ysys emde elopmen
59.90% Thi dChoice
1
Equal ep esen a iono womeninpoli ics/jobma ke
15.90% Fi s Choice
2
Equal ep esen a iono womeninpoli ics/jobma ke
27.30% SecondChoice
3
Equal ep esen a iono womeninpoli ics/jobma ke
56.80% Thi dChoice
1
C ea iono jobs
28.70% Fi s Choice
2
C ea iono jobs
39.50% SecondChoice
3
C ea iono jobs
31.80% Thi dChoice
1
Imp o ingheal hca e
27.20% Fi s Choice
2
Imp o ingheal hca e
44.20% SecondChoice
3
Imp o ingheal hca e
28.50% Thi dChoice
1
Imp o ingeduca ion
17.80% Fi s Choice
2
Imp o ingeduca ion
39.30% SecondChoice
3
Imp o ingeduca ion
42.90% Thi dChoice
1 O he 61.50% Fi s Choice
2 O he 23.10% SecondChoice
3 O he 15.40% Thi dChoice
51
289
132
275
105
21
291
66
128
28
7
171
165
44
8
44
200
95
153
157
30
151
74
211
51
12
235
268
97
3
50
181
65
145
209
53
138
145
182
118
25
189
173
106
2
S ong leade ship wi hin Bela us
Gi ing Bela usian ci izens a eal oice
in he poli ical p ocess
P o ec ing my basic ma e ial secu i y
Imp o emen o my li ing s anda ds
An i-co up ion e o ms
En i onmen al p o ec ion
De ense o Bela usian independence
Ensu ing he igh o eedom o assembly and
demons a ion
Ensu ing he independence o he judicia y
Mul ipa y sys em de elopmen
Equal ep esen a ion o women in poli ics /
job ma ke
C ea ion o jobs
Imp o ing heal hca e
Imp o ing educa ion
O he
Da en eihe1 Da en eihe2 Da en eihe3
Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 18
Wha should be he h ee main p io i ies o he poli ical leade ship a e he c isis?
Fi s Choice
Second Choice
Thi d Choice
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
21
Mos esponden s pu a s ong emphasis on libe al componen s o democ a-
cy. They associa ed a democ a ic o m o go e nmen wi h he p o ec ion o
poli ical and ci il igh s, such as ee elec ions (79 pe cen ), ci il igh s (72
pe cen ), and women’s igh s (78 pe cen ).15 FIGURE 19 Fewe esponden s
s essed he egali a ian elemen s o democ acy and linked a democ a ic po-
li ical sys em wi h a mo e in e en ionis ole o he s a e in gua an eeing
social secu i y and equali y, o example by making people’s incomes equal
(33 pe cen ), p o iding s a e aid o he unemployed (67 pe cen ), o axing
he ich and subsiding he poo (54 pe cen ).16 This end was also e lec -
ed in esponden s’ g ea e app ecia ion o poli ical e sus socio-economic
igh s. FIGURE 13
Democ acy suppo e s end o associa e a democ a ic poli ical sys em wi h
bo h libe al and egali a ian componen s. In he su ey, egali a ian ele-
men s also ended o be chosen by esponden s who p e e ed an au oc acy
unde ce ain ci cums ances, al hough wi h a lowe likelihood han by de-
moc acy suppo e s. Those who had no p e e ence o a pa icula ype o
go e nmen ended o de ine nei he egali a ian no libe al componen s as
essen ial cha ac e is ics o democ acy. This inding p o ides u he e i-
dence o he ac ha his g oup has di icul ies in pinpoin ing wha democ-
acy means o hem. Unde lining his di icul y, 11 pe cen o esponden s
ei he answe ed ‘don’ know’ o e used o answe when asked o de ine he
essen ial cha ac e is ics o democ acy.
15 Pe cen ages include all esponden s who chose a numbe om 6 o 10 on a scale om 1
(non-essen ial) o 10 (essen ial) when asked how hey alued he ollowing s a emen s: ‘Peo-
ple choose hei leade s in ee elec ions’, ‘Ci il igh s p o ec people om s a e opp ession’,
‘Women ha e he same igh s as men’.
16 Pe cen ages include all esponden s who chose a numbe om 6 o 10 on a scale om 1
(non-essen ial) o 10 (essen ial) when asked how hey alued he ollowing s a emen s: ‘The
s a e makes people’s incomes equal’, ‘People ecei e s a e aid o unemploymen ’, ‘Go e n-
men s ax he ich and subsidise he poo ’ ( FIGURE 19).
Sou ce: ZOiS
Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
Ci il igh sp o ec people oms a eopp ession
Womenha e hesame igh sasmen
Go e nmen s ax he ichandsubsidize hepoo
People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
Thes a emakespeople’sincomesequal
1no essen ial
1.70% 2.90% 1.20% 4.80% 2.80% 10.40%
2 2.30% 2.90% 1.90% 7.20% 4.80% 12.40%
3 2.10% 2.90% 1.50% 6.70% 3.90% 9.50%
4 1.80% 3.00% 2.00% 5.90% 4.40% 7.50%
5 4.30% 5.50% 8.40% 13.90% 8.70% 13.50%
6 3.30% 4.60% 5.80% 10.10% 7.00% 8.20%
7 4.10% 5.00% 6.20% 8.80% 10.00% 5.90%
8 7.50% 11.20% 9.80% 9.80% 13.10% 7.20%
9 9.00% 10.20% 11.40% 4.70% 8.20% 3.30%
10essen ial 55.40% 40.70% 44.60% 13.80% 28.50% 8.60%
Don' know 8.30% 11.10% 7.20% 14.20% 8.40% 13.50%
1 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
2 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
3 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
4 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
5 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
6 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
7 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
8 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
9 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
10 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
98 H5C Peoplechoose hei leade sin eeelec ions
1 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
2 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
3 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
4 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
5 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
6 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
7 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
8 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
9 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
10 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
98 H5D People ecei es a eaid o unemploymen
-People choose hei leade s in ee elec ions
1Ci il igh s p o ec people om s a e opp ession
!Women ha e he same igh s as men
/Go e nmen s ax he ich and subsidize he poo
)People ecei e s a e aid o unemploymen
&The s a e makes people’s incomes equal
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
People choose hei leade s in ee elec ions
Ci il igh s p o ec people om s a e opp ession
Women ha e he same igh s as men
Go e nmen s ax he ich and subsidize he poo
People ecei e s a e aid o unemploymen
The s a e makes people’s incomes equal
FIGURE 19
Essen ial cha ac e is ics o democ acy
1 no essen ial 2345 6 78910 essen ial Don’ know

ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
22
Ma ke compe i ion and s a e in e en ion in social issues
The economic si ua ion in Bela us has been s ained o some ime. Insecu-
i ies abou he u u e o ene gy subsidies ha e inc eased he dependence o
he dominan oil- e ining indus y on Russia. The ends in Bela us’s ex e -
nal ade and expo s a e nega i e, he coun y’s budge de ici is g owing,
and i s ex e nal deb emains high. The Co id-19 pandemic and he ongoing
poli ical c isis ha e ampli ied many o hese p oblems o households, oo.
The Bela usian au ho i ies ha e ailed o add ess he unde lying s uc u al
causes o hese p oblems and hei e ec s on Bela usian ci izens.
Pas su ey da a ha e illus a ed ha he pe cep ion o a wo sening socio-
economic si ua ion in Bela us is e lec ed in pa icula in conce ns abou in-
di idual household incomes.17 The la es ZOiS su ey con i ms ha o e 80
pe cen o esponden s we e ‘ e y conce ned’ o ‘somewha conce ned’
abou wha would happen o hei pe sonal inances o e he nex six
mon hs.  FIGURE 20 Fo example, mo e han 30 pe cen o esponden s men-
ioned a ea o losing hei job among majo conce ns abou he economic
de elopmen o he coun y in case o a change in go e nmen .
Agains his backg ound, i is in e es ing o see how Bela usians hink abou
s a e-ma ke ela ions. Ou su ey e eals a sligh p e e ence among e-
sponden s o libe al economic alues, despi e he widely assumed pa e nal-
is na u e o he Bela usian s a e unde Lukashenka.18 Mo e p ecisely, clea
majo i ies o hose su eyed suppo ed compe i ion (70 pe cen ) and p i-
a e owne ship (67 pe cen ). The e was also backing o g ea e indi idual
esponsibili y in gene al, bu a he lowe a e o 52 pe cen .19
17 ‘Belo usy o senili, kak s ali zhi ‘ o emya epidemii. No oe issledo anie Va doma skogo’,
Belsa , 29 Ap il 2020, h ps://belsa .eu/ u/news/belo usy-o senili-kak-s ali-zhi - o- emya-
epidemii-no oe-issledo anie- a doma skogo/
18 Ki yl Haiduk, Elena Rako a, and Vi al Sili ski, eds, Social Con ac s in Con empo a y Bela us (S
Pe e sbu g: Ne sky P os o , 2009); Alexei Pikulik, ‘Bela us, Russia, and Uk aine as Pos -So ie
Ren -Seeking Regimes’, in S ubbo n S uc u es: Reconcep ualizing Pos communis Regimes,
edi ed by Bálin Magya (Budapes : Cen al Eu opean Uni e si y P ess, 2019), pp. 489 – 506.
19 Pe cen ages include all esponden s who chose a numbe om 1 o 5 on a scale om 1 (co -
esponding o s ongly libe al) o 10 (co esponding o s ongly pa e nalis ) when asked o
desc ibe hei a i ude owa ds hese s a emen s ( FIGURE 21).
Howconce neda eyouabou howyou pe sonal inanceswillde elopo e  henex sixmon hs?
a io
No a allconce ned
4.40%
No  e yconce ned
10.00%
Somewha conce ned
41.50%
Ve yconce ned
39.30%
Don' know 4.00%
Re used 0.70%
n=2,004
4.4%
10.0%
41.5%
39.3%
4.0%
0.7%
No a all conce ned
No e y conce ned
Somewha conce ned
Ve y conce ned
Don' know
Re used
Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS
Sou ce: ZOiS
FIGURE 20
How conce ned a e you abou how you pe sonal inances will de elop o e
he nex six mon hs?
n = 2,004
O e 80% we e
conce ned abou hei
pe sonal inances in he
nex six mon hs.
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
23
When asked abou hei a i udes owa ds s a e in e en ion in issues o so-
cial secu i y and inequali y, mos esponden s p e e ed s onge in e en-
ion. Howe e , app o al a es on hese issues we e lowe han o g ea e
economic eedoms: less han 52 pe cen o esponden s suppo ed a s ong
ole o he s a e in p o iding ee heal hca e, e en a he cos o lowe qual-
i y. Sligh ly mo e han 54 pe cen suppo ed in e en ion in ensu ing in-
come equali y, while less han 60 pe cen expec ed he s a e o c ea e job
secu i y o uni e si y g adua es.20 FIGURE 21
Libe al economic alues s. a pa e nalis s a e
In he su ey, esponden s who sha ed libe al economic alues we e mo e
likely o ha e aken pa in p o es s, in pa icula since summe 2020, o a
leas o suppo he ongoing demons a ions. They also ended o suppo
democ acy as a o m o go e nmen . Mo eo e , hese esponden s gene -
ally conside ed Bela usian hei na i e language, we e be e educa ed, and
wo ked in he p i a e sec o , mainly in uppe o middle managemen . By
con as , hose who suppo ed s onge s a e in e en ion in he economy
sha ed se e al opposi e cha ac e is ics.
20 Pe cen ages include all esponden s who chose a numbe om 6 o 10 on a scale om 1
(co esponding o s ongly libe al) o 10 (co esponding o s ongly pa e nalis ) when asked
o desc ibe hei a i ude owa ds hese s a emen s ( FIGURE 21).
Pleasesha eyou  iewsona angeo economicissues.Youwillseeopposinng iewson hesameissue.
P i a e
owne shipo 
businessand
en e p ises
shouldbe
inc eased(1)
–
Go e nmen 
owne shipo
businessand
en e p ises
shouldbe
inc eased
(10)
People
should ake
mo e
esponsibili y
op o ide
 o 
hemsel es
(1)–
Go e nmen 
should ake
esponsibili y
 ha 
e e yoneis
p o ided o 
(10)
Compe i ion
isgood.I 
s imula es
people o
wo kha d
andde elop
newideas(1)
–
Compe i ion
isha m ul.
I b ingsou 
hewo s o 
people(10)
Weneed
la ge income
di e ences
asincen i es
o indi idual
e o (1)–
Incomes
shouldbe
mademo e
equal(10)
Fo quali y
heal hca e
ci izensha e
o elyon
p i a e
 acili iesand
pay o i 
hemsel es
(1)–
Heal hca e
shouldbe
p o ided
eeo 
cha gee en
i o lowe 
quali y(10)
Uni e si y
g adua es
should
compe e o 
jobs
likeo he 
youngpeople
(1)–
Uni e si y
g adua es
shouldbe
assigneda
job(10)
1libe al* 20.60% 13.70% 29.90% 9.60% 8.00% 9.70%
2 8.70% 5.40% 10.60% 3.90% 3.10% 3.00%
3 10.00% 11.40% 9.20% 8.60% 7.30% 4.90%
4 6.20% 9.40% 5.40% 9.70% 7.90% 5.00%
5 21.60% 11.70% 15.00% 12.70% 22.00% 17.80%
6 10.70% 20.80% 7.30% 21.20% 12.40% 10.40%
7 5.70% 5.60% 4.80% 7.70% 8.70% 8.40%
8 5.40% 6.30% 6.10% 8.20% 9.70% 10.90%
9 3.50% 4.30% 3.60% 5.30% 5.40% 7.00%
10pa e nalis ic**
7.60% 11.40% 8.00% 13.00% 15.60% 22.80%
1 20.60% H6B
2 8.70% H6B
3 10.00% H6B
4 6.20% H6B
5 21.60% H6B
6 10.70% H6B
7 5.70% H6B
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
P i a e owne ship o business and en e p ises
should be inc eased (1) – Go e nmen owne ship o
business and en e p ises should be inc eased (10)
People should ake mo e esponsibili y o p o ide
o hemsel es (1) – Go e nmen should ake esponsibili y
ha e e yone is p o ided o (10)
Compe i ion is good. I s imula es people o wo k ha d
and de elop new ideas (1) – Compe i ion is ha m ul.
I b ings ou he wo s o people (10)
We need la ge income di e ences
as incen i es o indi idual e o (1) –
Incomes should be made mo e equal (10)
Fo quali y heal hca e ci izens ha e o ely on p i a e
acili ies and pay o i hemsel es (1) – Heal hca e should be
p o ided ee o cha ge e en i o lowe quali y (10)
Uni e si y g adua es should compe e o jobs
like o he young people (1) – Uni e si y g adua es
should be assigned a job (10)
1 libe al* 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 pa e nalis ic**
FIGURE 21
Views on economic issues
*, ** The ca ego ies “libe al” and “pa e nalis ” we e no used in he su ey. They we e in oduced ex pos o analy ical pu poses. Sou ce: ZOiS
1 libe al* 234 5 6 78910 Pa e nalis **
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
24
Mos Bela usians suppo ma ke compe i ion and p i a e owne ship
bu ega d gua an ees o social secu i y and equali y as key esponsi-
bili ies o he s a e. Those who do no suppo he ongoing p o es s a e
mo e likely o p e e s onge s a e in e en ion in he economy. As his
g oup includes many o hose who a e undecided as o which poli ical
sys em hey wish o li e in, his inding has impo an implica ions o
ways in which he opposi ion could ill his idea ional acuum.
In e na ional ou look: sanc ions and
ela ions wi h he EU and Russia
The Bela usian p o es s ha e a oided any geopoli ical posi ioning
is-à- is Russia o he Eu opean Union (EU). Howe e , he one o ex-
iled opposi ion igu es, mos no ably Tsikhanouskaya and he eam,
has changed owa ds an explici call o mo e Wes e n suppo o he
p o es mo emen . The ZOiS su ey shows ha Bela usian socie y is
di ided on he issue o close ela ions wi h he EU. Al hough abou 39
pe cen o esponden s a ou ed s onge ies wi h he union, 30 pe
cen did no , and he sha e o hose who did no know how o answe
his ques ion was equally high, a abou 30 pe cen . FIGURE 22
Younge and mo e educa ed esponden s, especially s uden s, a-
ou ed close ela ions wi h he EU, as did indi iduals om poo e
households. Pa icipa ion in p o es s also co ela ed s ongly wi h a
wish o s onge ies wi h he EU. In ac , p o es pa icipa ion can-
cels ou he signi icance o a highe le el o educa ion, poin ing o a
wide socie al dynamic. Responden s who cha ac e ised hemsel es
as eligious o had g ea e us in Lukashenka we e less likely o
wan close ela ions wi h he EU. Female esponden s, hose om
ou side Minsk oblas , hose wi h lowe le els o poli ical in e es and
us in Tsikhanouskaya we e mo e likely no o know how o answe
his ques ion.
No 29.70%
Yes 39.20%
Don' know 29.50%
Re used 1.50%
n=2.004
29.7%
39.2%
29.5%
1.5%
No
Yes
Don' know
Re used
Quelle: ZOiS

n=2,004
Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 22
Should Bela us seek close coope a ion wi h EU coun ies, e en i i
means less close coope a ion wi h Russia?
Sou ce: ZOiS
n = 2,004
Socie y is di ided on he
issue o close ela ions
wi h he EU.
ZOiS Repo 3 / 2021 Bela us a a c oss oads
25
When asked abou hei expec a ions o he EU, he la ges sha e o espond-
en s — 23 pe cen — hoped o easie a el o he union, ollowed by 19 pe
cen who expec ed no hing, abou 13 pe cen who hoped o inancial sup-
po , and 11 pe cen who wan ed o see mo e suppo o ci il socie y. Only
5 pe cen o esponden s men ioned possible EU membe ship o Bela us.
Lowe age co ela ed wi h all o hese op ions excep o he expec a ion
ha he EU will suppo poli ical e o ms in Bela us. Male esponden s
and hose om la ge ci ies we e mo e likely o ha e expec a ions abou
poli ical e o ms and EU membe ship. A sel - epo ed inc ease in poli ical
in e es and pa icipa ion in p o es s since Augus 2020 we e consis en ly
associa ed wi h all expec a ions o he EU and, in u n, a lowe likelihood o
being unable o answe his ques ion. A highe deg ee o poli icisa ion hus
makes he EU mo e p ominen in people’s minds. T us in Tsikhanouskaya
and pa icipa ion in p o es s co ela ed s ongly wi h all posi i e expec a-
ions o he EU, unde lining ha he exiled poli ician now s ands o a ision
o Bela us ha is o ien ed owa ds he EU.
Iden i y issues a e also linked o hopes associa ed wi h he EU. Al hough lan-
guage is no a di isi e issue in Bela usian socie y, esponden s who named
Bela usian as hei na i e language — a he han said hey had a bilingual
iden i y — we e mo e likely o exp ess a hope o inancial, poli ical, o ci il
socie y suppo and easie access o he EU. In e es ingly, he 15 pe cen o
esponden s who did no know how o answe he ques ion ended o include
younge people, women, esponden s om poo e households, and hose
wi h a lowe sel -decla ed in e es in poli ics.
Expec a ions is-à- is he EU a e also e lec ed in he widesp ead eadiness
o mig a ion among Bela usian ci izens: abou hal o esponden s said
ha hey we e conside ing lea ing hei ci y. O hose, abou 34 pe cen
would p e e o mo e o an EU coun y, some 14 pe cen would mo e wi hin
Bela us, and a ound 11 pe cen we e con empla ing mo ing o Russia. Mi-
g a ion in en ions a e no he same as ac ual emig a ion, bu hey a e a pow-
e ul measu e o he le el o dissa is ac ion.
I ook he EU a while o each a consensus on sanc ions agains Lukashenka
and he eli es closes o him. Some membe s a es, mos no ably he Bal ic
s a es and Poland, implemen ed bila e al sanc ions as e and mo e com-
p ehensi ely. The e ec i eness o Wes e n sanc ions in e ms o esol ing
he poli ical c isis emains unclea . In e es ingly, he majo i y pe cep ion
among he su ey esponden s was ha sanc ions ha e a signi ican e ec :
52 pe cen hough he measu es we e ei he ‘impo an ’ o ‘ e y impo -
an ’. Only 23 pe cen conside ed hem unimpo an , and 22 pe cen did no
know how o judge hei alue.
While he su ey did no ask explici ly abou esponden s’ suppo o sanc-
ions, he measu es’ impo ance can be judged along socio-poli ical aul
lines. Those who epo ed us in Tsikhanouskaya and an inc ease in hei
le el o poli ical in e es we e mo e likely o deem he sanc ions impo an .
Con e sely, he sanc ions we e seen as unimpo an in pa icula by hose
who had no pa icipa ed in p o es s since Augus 2020, epo ed highe
us in Lukashenka, and we e cha ac e ised by socio-demog aphic ac o s
ha unde pin egime loyal y mo e gene ally: being employed in he go e n-
men sec o , li ing in smalle ci ies, being eligious and, mo e speci ically,
The e is a widesp ead
eadiness o mig a ion.