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Leng h o he manusc ip : 7296 wo ds + 1500 wo ds (Figu es) + 300 wo ds (Table)
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Na ional clima e change impac assessmen s unde es ima e he
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po en ial o au onomous adap a ion
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Juliana A belaez-Ga i ia1,2,3
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[email p o ec ed]
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Depa men o Ag osys ems and Bioclima ology
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Zemědělská 1, 61300 B no - budo a A
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+420 774 510 248
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Es he Boe e4,3
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[email p o ec ed]
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Mi osla T nka1,2
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[email p o ec ed]
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Pe Ha lík3
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[email p o ec ed]
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Ian P. Holman1,5
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[email p o ec ed]
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Paula A. Ha ison6
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[email p o ec ed]
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1Global Change Resea ch Ins i u e o he Czech Academy o Sciences, B no, Czech
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Republic
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2Mendel Uni e si y in B no, Ins i u e o Ag osys ems and Bioclima ology, B no, Czech
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Republic
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3In e na ional Ins i u e o Applied Sys ems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenbu g, Aus ia
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4Ins i u e o En i onmen al S udies (IVM), VU Uni e si y Ams e dam, Ams e dam, The
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Ne he lands
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5Cen e o Wa e , En i onmen and De elopmen , C an ield Uni e si y, C an ield, UK
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6En i onmen al Change Ins i u e, Uni e si y o Ox o d, Ox o d, UK
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Abs ac
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Cen al Eu ope is p ojec ed o lose up o 25% o i s c op p oduc i i y by 2050 due o
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clima e change, posing signi ican challenges o ag icul u al sys ems and ood secu i y.
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E ec i e adap a ion s a egies mus conside no only domes ic impac s bu also global
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clima e e ec s, including in e na ional ade dynamics. We pe o med a mul ile el analysis
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o clima e change impac s on ag icul u e, using he Czech Republic, a landlocked, c op
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p oduc ion-based economy wi h an open ma ke , as a case s udy. We in eg a ed he
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global biosphe e managemen model (GLOBIOM) wi h he g idded global c op model
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EPIC-IIASA. Clima e impac s we e p ojec ed wi h i e global ci cula ion models unde
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h ee clima e scena ios, wi h and wi hou CO₂ e iliza ion, and applied in na ional, EU-
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egional, and global p oduc i i y change scena ios. Resul s show ha na ional-only
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assessmen s unde es ima e bo h isks and oppo uni ies: p oduc ion is p ojec ed o
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decline by up o 9% when global in e ac ions a e excluded, bu o inc ease by up o 8%
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when ade and ma ke e ec s a e included. Au onomous adap a ion mechanisms, such
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as c opland ealloca ion, shi s in managemen in ensi y, and ade adjus men s, bu e
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biophysical yield losses and imp o e economic ou comes. Neglec ing global in e ac ions
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in na ional clima e change assessmen s inc eases he isk o maladap a ion and policy
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ine iciencies. Inco po a ing in e na ional ma ke linkages enhances he abili y o design
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obus adap a ion s a egies, enabling coun ies such as he Czech Republic o maximize
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esilience while minimizing en i onmen al and socioeconomic ade-o s.
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Keywo ds
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Clima e change, Adap a ion, Ag icul u al ade, Czech Republic, In eg a ed assessmen ,
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Food secu i y
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In oduc ion
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Clima e change is expec ed o pose subs an ial ag icul u al challenges in Cen al Eu ope,
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wi h po en ial c op p oduc i i y declines o up o 25% by mid-cen u y. (Pö ne e al. 2022).
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Maize yields can decline by as much as 25%, whe eas whea losses may each 15%,
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depending on he ex en o CO₂ e iliza ion be ween 2040 and 2069 (Ei zinge e al. 2013;
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Webbe e al. 2018). Robus adap a ion s a egies mus be de eloped o add ess hese
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an icipa ed ag icul u al losses. A key ques ion is whe he ocusing solely on he di ec ,
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na ional impac s o clima e change p o ides a su icien ounda ion o planning and
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decision-making (E cin e al. 2021). While na ional clima e change assessmen s a e
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c ucial o designing adap a ion s a egies, he global na u e and in e connec edness o
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clima e change e ec s and ag icul u al ma ke s may signi ican ly in luence na ional
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esilience and adap a ion e o s (E cin e al. 2019). Igno ing he e ec s o clima e change
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on global ag icul u al p oduc ion and in e na ional ade when de eloping na ional
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adap a ion s a egies inc eases he likelihood o maladap a ion; as such, assessmen s
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isk unde es ima ing o o e es ima ing he impac s o na ional clima e change (Pö ne e
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al. 2022).
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Key playe s in he global ag icul u al ma ke ha e elied on na ional and global ag icul u al
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models o assess impac s and de elop adap a ion plans o ins ance he Uni ed S a es
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(e.g., Bake e al., 2018), B azil (e.g., Zilli e al., 2020), and he Eu opean Union (EU) (e.g.,
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Blanco e al., 2017). Mo eo e , 18 coun ies ha e s a ed inco po a ing global amewo ks
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o be e unde s and and add ess challenges in he ag icul u al sec o and associa ed
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linkages o clima e mi iga ion and adap a ion, o example, ia he FABLE
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conso ium (FABLE 2019). Howe e , in he case o he Czech Republic, clima e change
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impac assessmen s a e based p edominan ly on coun y- o egion-scale modeling
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app oaches. Al hough he Czech Republic does no play a dominan ole in he global
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ag icul u al ma ke , i s ag icul u al sec o emains an essen ial componen o he na ional
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economy and u al li elihoods (P ochazka e al. 2023). Fu he mo e, changes in c op
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sui abili y and ag icul u al a ea expansion may posi ion i as a mo e signi ican egional
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playe wi hin he EU a cons an ood demand (Papadimi iou e al. 2019).
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Czech ag icul u e is a ce eal-based sec o , whe e whea p oduc ion ep esen ed he 62%
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o he ce eal p oduc ion in 2024, ollowing by ba ley wi h 22% and maize 9% (CZSO
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2025). The Czech Republic’s ag icul u al ade is s ongly o ien ed owa d he Eu opean
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Union, wi h oughly ou - i hs o all expo s di ec ed o EU Membe S a es and only a
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mino sha e eaching ma ke s ou side he EU (Zábojníko á and Kamenický 2024)
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Ge many emains i s key ading pa ne . Despi e ce eals accoun ing o mo e han hal
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o domes ic ag icul u al ou pu , he Czech Republic o e all is a ne impo e o ag icul u al
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p oduc s (Zábojníko á and Kamenický 2024). The impac s o clima e change on Czech
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ag icul u e ha e been ex ensi ely s udied ia biophysical models ocused on single
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commodi ies such as maize (Pa lik e al. 2019), ba ley, and whea (T nka e al. 2004a;
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Thale e al. 2012; Ei zinge e al. 2013), as well as li es ock (Po opo á e al. 2023) and
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p o isioning ecosys em se ices (Lo enco á e al. 2013). Some s udies ha e also
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modeled mul iple key c ops (Hla inka e al. 2015; Pohanko á e al. 2022; Pohanko á e
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al. 2024) o analyzed ag oclima ic indica o s (Ei zinge e al. 2013) a speci ic si es.
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Papadimi iou e al. (2019) inco po a ed ansna ional ma ke in e ac ions in o
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assessmen s o he Czech Republic, and a Eu opean-scale model was used o simula e
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a ia ions in impo s and expo s on he basis o sha ed socioeconomic pa hways (O’Neill
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e al. 2014). Po opo á e al. 2023 used clima e p ojec ions o de e mine he u u e wa e
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consump ion o li es ock in he coun y and mo e ecen ly, (Poláko á e al. 2025)
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in eg a ed he eedback loop om local o global by in eg a ing na ional yield esponse
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in o a gene al equilib ium model. Despi e hei con ibu ions, hese s udies sha e common
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limi a ions. Fi s , hey ail o cap u e clima e change impac s ou side hei spa ial domains,
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es ic ing he abili y o assess he Czech Republic’s ela i e compe i i eness wi hin he
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EU. Second, hey omi o agg ega e ag icul u al ma ke dynamics beyond Eu ope, such
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as in e na ional ade, leading o a biased unde s anding o he coun y’s au onomous
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adap a ion po en ial.
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Building on he app oaches o Bake e al. (2018) and Papadimi iou e al. (2019), a
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comp ehensi e, mul ile el amewo k o assessing he Czech ag icul u al sec o ’s
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au onomous adap a ion esponse o clima e change is p oposed in his s udy. We
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hypo hesize ha global clima e change impac s and in e na ional ma ke dynamics play
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c i ical oles in shaping he e ec i eness o na ional adap a ion s a egies. Speci ically,
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he Czech ag icul u al sec o ’s adap a ion po en ial is e alua ed by in eg a ing na ional,
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egional, and global impac s h ough a combina ion o globally consis en models: a pa ial
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equilib ium model o ag icul u e and o es y and a g idded global c op model. By
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employing his app oach, we aim o p o ide con ex -speci ic insigh s in o he in e ac ions
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be ween na ional and global ac o s, laying he ounda ion o mo e obus adap a ion
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s a egies and policies. While he p ima y ocus is on clima e change impac s on Czech
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ag icul u al indica o s—such as p oduc ion, consump ion, and p ices—scena ios
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encompassing di ec clima e change impac s on Czech ag icul u e a e compa ed wi h
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scena ios ha inco po a e indi ec e ec s h ough egional and global p oduc i i y
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changes. Unlike p e ious s udies, his esea ch explici ly cap u es in e ac ions be ween
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he Czech Republic and he es o he wo ld, o e ing a comp ehensi e unde s anding o
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sys emic ulne abili ies and adap a ion oppo uni ies.
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Me hods
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We apply he global biosphe e managemen model (GLOBIOM) (Ha lík e al. 2014), a
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pa ial equilib ium model ha ep esen s he global ag icul u e, o es y, and bioene gy
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sec o s. The model was enhanced o he Eu opean Union by inco po a ing upda ed land
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co e and land use in o ma ion om he bes a ailable Eu opean da ase s (F ank e al.
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2015). Commodi y ma ke s and in e na ional ade a e ep esen ed o 57 economic
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egions, one o each EU membe s a e and he UK, and 29 addi ional egions ou side he
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EU. Wi hin each egion, a ep esen a i e consume op imizes consump ion on he basis
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o p e e ences and commodi y p ices, while p oduce s maximize ma gins, and GLOBIOM
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is used o sol e o he ma ke equilib ium scheme ha achie es o e all wel a e
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maximiza ion.
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The supply side o he model ollows a bo om-up app oach using de ailed spa ial da a o
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land co e , land use, managemen sys ems, and biophysical and echnical cos s.
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En i onmen al impac s such as g eenhouse gas and nu ien emissions a e also
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in eg a ed in o he model. The EU28 is ep esen ed a he NUTS2 le el, ensu ing ine-
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scale de ail. C op, li es ock, and o es p oduc ion ac i i ies a e conside ed ia biophysical
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modeling amewo ks. P ima y o es p oduc i i y and ha es ing cos s a e es ima ed ia
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he Global Fo es Model (G4M) (Kinde mann e al. 2008). EPIC is used o compu e c op
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p oduc i i y, e ilize equi emen s, and i iga ion managemen p ac ices. The Eu opean
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c op sec o is modeled ia c op o a ions o 18 key c ops, de i ed om EUROSTAT
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s a is ics a he NUTS2 le el, wi h he C opRo a model (Schönha e al. 2011). The
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li es ock sec o and i s p oduc ion sys em pa ame e s a e modeled wi h he RUMINANT
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model (He e o e al. 2013). Six dynamically modeled land-use ypes (c opland,
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g assland, sho - o a ion ee plan a ions, managed o es s, na u al o es s, and o he
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na u al land) can be con e ed on he basis o he demand and p o i abili y o land-based
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ac i i ies. Wi hin Eu ope, no de o es a ion o ag icul u al expansion is assumed due o
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es ic i e land-use legisla ion (Baue e al. 2004). Addi ional in o ma ion abou he global
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and Eu opean e sions o GLOBIOM we e p esen ed by Ha lík e al. (2014) and F ank e
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al. (2015), espec i ely.
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GLOBIOM has been widely applied o assess clima e change impac s and mi iga ion
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pa hways a he global (Nelson e al. 2014; Hasegawa e al. 2018; Fujimo i e al. 2019)
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and EU le el, including he ecen impac assessmen o he Eu opean Commission’s Fi -
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o -55 package (EC 2021). Unlike models ha agg ega e coun ies in o b oade egional
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blocks, GLOBIOM explici ly ep esen s ma ke ela ionships among EU Membe S a es,
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making i pa icula ly sui able o na ional-scale analyses (F ank e al. 2015) . I is also
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included among he IPCC’s In eg a ed Assessmen Models (IAMs), whe e i complemen s
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he MESSAGE model by ep esen ing he land-based mi iga ion sec o (K ey e al. 2020)
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and clima e impac s (Awais e al. 2024) . Beyond ood p oduc ion, GLOBIOM inco po a es
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land compe i ion wi h o es y as well as demand o eed and bioene gy (Ha lík e al.
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2011; Ha lík e al. 2014), enabling analysis o c oss-sec o al ade-o s and co-bene i s.
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I s de ailed ep esen a ion o ag icul u al commodi ies, including whea , ba ley, and maize,
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p o ides a obus basis o e alua ing ce eal-based ag icul u al sys ems such as hose in
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he Czech Republic.
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Au onomous adap a ion
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Clima e change adap a ion e e s o “ he p ocess o adjus men o ac ual o expec ed
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clima e and i s e ec s” (Pö ne e al. 2022). The adjus men can be explici ly planned o
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occu spon aneously, igge ed by a me s o ma ke changes as a esponse o clima e
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change— e e ed o as au onomous adap a ion (Pö ne e al. 2022; Maskell e al. 2025).
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In GLOBIOM, au onomous adap a ion o clima e-induced changes in c op yields can be
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explo ed h ough adjus men s in p oduc ion, consump ion, and ade pa e ns. Supply-
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side adap a ion occu s h ough land ealloca ion by expanding c opland in o o he land
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co e ypes, al e ing c op sha es a he na ional le el, o shi ing be ween low-inpu and
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high-inpu managemen sys ems (Leclè e e al. 2014). Consume s adap by modi ying
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bo h he quan i y and s uc u e o ood consump ion on he basis o p ice signals (Mosnie
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e al. 2014). In e na ional ade se es as ano he c ucial adap a ion mechanism. Clima e-
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induced changes in p oduc i i y may shi compa a i e ad an ages ac oss egions,
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enabling ade o edis ibu e su plus p oduc ion om a o able egions o de ici egions
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(Janssens e al. 2020). In GLOBIOM, economic egions adjus ade quan i ies and ading
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pa ne ships o bu e p oduc i i y shocks and main ain ma ke balance.
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Scena io design
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The global g idded c op model EPIC-IIASA (Balko ič e al. 2013) was un in conjunc ion
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wi h i e dis inc global ci cula ion models (GCMs) om he Coupled Model
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In e compa ison P ojec Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill e al. 2016; Jäge mey e al. 2021).
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The clima e scena ios conside ed in his s udy we e ob ained om he In e -Sec o al
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Impac Model In e compa ison P ojec (ISI-MIP) and i s la es p o ocol, ISIMIP3b—bo h
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subse s o CMIP6 (Ey ing e al. 2016). ISI-MIP p o ides consis en p ojec ions o
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e alua ing clima e impac s on ag icul u e. Fo he biophysical clima e change impac s on
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p oduc i i y, we used h ee clima e scena ios om he mos ecen CMIP6 ensemble,
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combining Sha ed Socioeconomic Pa hways (SSPs) and Rep esen a i e Concen a ion
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Pa hways (RCPs): SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 (Gidden e al., 2019), simula ed
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wi h i e gene al ci cula ion models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-
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2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and UKESM1-0-LL. Supplemen a y Table 1 p o ides u he de ails
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abou each model. The impac s o clima e on c op p oduc i i y we e es ima ed ia EPIC-
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IIASA o ou key c ops (maize, ice, soy, and whea ). P oduc i i y o 17 addi ional c ops
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(e.g., ba ley, silage maize, co on, and suga bee ) was compu ed on he basis o hei
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C3/C4 pho osyn hesis pa hways, ollowing he app oach o Janssens e al. (2020)
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(Supplemen a y Table 2). The EPIC-IIASA p ojec ions we e a ailable a a 0.5 x 0.5
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deg ees esolu ion and upscaled o 2 × 2 deg ees cells, ma ching he esolu ion o
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GLOBIOM’s land uni s, using a weigh ed a e age based on he espec i e c op a eas in
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he yea 2000. As GLOBIOM explici ly accoun s o socie al changes in land-based
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sec o s, we used SSP2 as he non-clima e-change baseline, enabling us o isola e he
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e ec s o clima e om hose o socio-economic change and o examine he au onomous
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adap a ion esponse in he absence o mi iga ion policies (O’Neill e al. 2016). Li es ock
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impac s we e modeled indi ec ly h ough changes in eed p oduc ion a he han explici
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p oduc i i y impac s. In he baseline scena io wi hou clima e change, exogenous yield
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imp o emen s o igina ed solely om long- e m echnological de elopmen s.
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To simula e di e ences in na ional, egional, and global clima e impac s, each RCP-GCM-
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CO₂ scena io was i s analyzed conside ing na ional impac s, ollowed by egional and
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global impac s. In he na ional scena ios, p oduc i i y changes we e applied only o Czech
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p oduc ion sys ems, keeping yields elsewhe e consis en wi h socioeconomic
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assump ions. In he egional scena ios, changes ex ended o he EU27, including he UK.
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Bo h scena ios accoun ed o endogenous changes in global p oduc i i y and ma ke
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in e ac ions. In he global scena io, p oduc i i y impac s we e applied ac oss all he
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egions modeled (Table 1.). This scena io design isola es he e ec s o coun y- and
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egion-scale assessmen s om global-scale impac s, enabling compa isons o clima e-
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induced p oduc i i y changes. All he scena ios included he same au onomous
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adap a ion op ions, al hough economically op imal adap a ions di e ed on he basis o
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whe he na ional, egional, o global e ec s we e modeled. A compa ison o he esul s
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ac oss hese scena ios e ealed key di e ences in na ional c op p oduc ion pa e ns and
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au onomous adap a ion esponses ac oss ma ke indica o s.
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Clima e
Impac
Scena io
Regional
Ex en
Ra ionale
Clima e
Scena ios
GCMs
Na ional
Czech
Republic
Clima e impac s a e
applied o c op
p oduc i i y in he
Czech Republic. The
es o he wo ld e ains
SSP2 p oduc i i y
le els.
SSP1–2.6 w/o
CO₂
SSP1–2.6 w/
CO₂
SSP3–7.0 w/o
CO₂
SSP3–7.0 w/
CO₂
SSP5–8.5 w/o
CO₂
SSP5–8.5 w/
CO₂
GFDL-ESM4
IPSL-CM6A-
LR
MPI-ESM1-2-
HR
MRI-ESM2-0
UKESM1-0-
LL
Regional
EU27 +
UK
Clima e impac s a e
applied o c op
p oduc i i y in he EU27
and he UK. The es o
he wo ld e ains SSP2
p oduc i i y le els.
Global
Wo ld
Clima e impac s a e
applied o global c op
p oduc i i y.
7
Table 1. Clima e impac scena ios assessed in his s udy, showing he egional ex en , a ionale, clima e scena ios,
246
and CMIP6 gene al ci cula ion models (GCMs) used o e alua e biophysical clima e change impac s on c op
247
p oduc i i y.
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249
250
Resul s
251
252
Ou esul s ocus on p ojec ed ela i e changes o he no-clima e-change scena io o
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di e en ag icul u al indica o s in he Czech Republic, he EU28, and globally by 2050.
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The biophysical e ec s o clima e change on yields (see Figu e 1a) a y om -27% o 6%
255
ac oss c ops, scena ios, and clima e models. Compa ed wi h he maize yield, he whea
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yield declines less se e ely in hese scena ios, anging om -5% (RCP 8.5) o 6% (RCP
257
7.0), whe eas he maize yield declines by -22% (RCP 8.5) o 5% (RCP 2.6). O e all, he
258
e ec s o clima e change on c op yields in he Czech Republic ollow a pa e n simila o
259
ha obse ed o whea (−5% o +10%), e lec ing he dominance o C3 c ops in Czech
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ag icul u al p oduc ion. Whea (C3) and maize (C4) bo h show he la ges yield declines
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unde he high-emission scena io RCP8.5 wi hou he CO₂ e iliza ion e ec . The whea
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and maize yields dec ease om -12% o 2% and om -27% o 3%, espec i ely, when
263
CO2 e iliza ion e ec s a e neglec ed. UKESM1-0-LL consis en ly p ojec s he mos
264
nega i e impac s, while GFDL-ESM4 shows he mos posi i e impac s ac oss c ops and
265
clima e scena ios. The la ge a ia ion among GCMs can be a ibu ed o di e ences in
266
hei CO₂ concen a ion pa hways in he CMIP6 expe imen and hei clima e sensi i i y.
267
By he end o he cen u y, UKESM1-0-LL egis e s he highes empe a u e inc ease,
268
whe eas GFDL-ESM4 shows he lowes ac oss all clima e scena ios (Jäge mey e al.
269
2021).
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Fig. 1. Impac s o clima e change on c op yields and ag icul u al indica o s in 2050 in he Czech Republic unde
274
al e na i e clima e and impac scena ios. (a) Biophysical yield changes ela i e o a no-clima e-change baseline (%)
275
simula ed by EPIC-IIASA o whea , maize and agg ega ed c ops unde SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, each wi h
276
and wi hou CO
₂
e iliza ion. Ba s show mul i-model means (CMIP6 ensemble a e age) and symbols deno e indi idual
277
gene al ci cula ion models (GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL). (b)
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Changes (%) in sec o al indica o s, yield, ha es ed a ea, p oduc ion, consump ion, p ices and ne ade, unde na ional,
279
egional (EU) and global clima e-impac con ex s. Boxplo s indica e in e qua ile anges, whiske s show anges
280
excluding ou lie s, black lines deno e medians and illed do s ma k means. Resul s agg ega e 30 clima e scena ios (n
281
= 30)
282
9
283
Economic esponse o he e ec s o clima e change in he Czech Republic
284
285
Figu e 1b shows an o e iew o how he biophysical e ec s o clima e change on yields
286
p opaga e ac oss ag icul u al indica o s unde di e en clima e impac scena ios.
287
GLOBIOM ans e s he ini ial e ec on yields o he esponse o ag icul u al indica o s ia
288
supply and demand adjus men s o ag icul u al p oduc ion in he coun y. Ma ke s,
289
p oduc ion, and consump ion pa e ns adjus o he assumed yield and ade condi ions,
290
wi h he goal o maximizing o al economic su plus by 2050 globally, including in he Czech
291
Republic. P oduce s espond o clima e change p ima ily h ough ag icul u al a ea
292
expansion, which a e ages 3%, a he han in ensi ied managemen p ac ices (-0.08%)
293
(see Figu e 1b, global clima e impac scena io and he oli e-g een poin ). The a ea
294
changes emain wi hin ±5% ac oss all scena io dimensions, eaching up o 14% unde
295
he mos ex eme scena io (RCP 8.5 wi hou CO2 e iliza ion e ec s). In con as , yield
296
changes a e small, a e cen e ed mos ly a app oxima ely 0% and show limi ed a iabili y
297
ac oss scena ios. The combined a ea inc ease and s able yield esul in a mean
298
p oduc ion inc ease o 3%, wi h changes wi hin ±10%. Consump ion in he Czech
299
Republic is s able ac oss mos scena ios, and only a small change (3%) is expec ed unde
300
RCP 8.5 wi hou CO2 e iliza ion e ec s. Ne ade (calcula ed as expo s minus impo s)
301
displays he la ges a ia ion o all he indica o s, wi h changes anging om -8% o 27%,
302
depending on he scena io. On a e age, ne ade inc eases 10%, indica ing a ne expo
303
su plus in esponse o clima e change e ec s.
304
305
To in es iga e he d i e s o he e ogenei y in he selec ed indica o s induced by clima e
306
change, an in-dep h analysis wi h GLOBIOM is needed. Figu e 2 shows he uni a ia e
307
eg ession lines o he selec ed indica o s plo ed agains he biophysical e ec on yields.
308
The slope coe icien e lec s he local esponse, and i can be unde s ood as he abili y o
309
a a iable o change, in e p e ed as adap i e capaci y. A alue o 1 can be in e p e ed as
310
a pe cen age change in he impac o clima e change on yields in esponse o an
311
equi alen pe cen age change in a gi en indica o . The in e cep coe icien can be
312
in e p e ed as a local change d i en by indi ec clima e change e ec s and p ice e ec s
313
ansmi ed by in e na ional ma ke s. An in e cep alue o he han 0 sugges s ha local
314
changes a ise om e ec s in o he egions ansmi ed ia p ice e ec s h ough
315
in e na ional ade (Nelson e al. 2014). The slope and in e cep coe icien s o each
316
clima e impac scena io a e also epo ed in Supplemen a y Table 3.
317
318
Yield in he Czech Republic appea s un esponsi e in e ms o p oduc i i y managemen .
319
Wi h a slope close o 1 and an in e cep close o 0, he e is no addi ional compensa ion
320
h ough managemen o clima e change impac s on yield (see Figu e 2c). The yield
321
shows a sligh local e ec on c op ealloca ion be ween C3 and C4 c ops due o di e en ial
322
clima e change impac s (Supplemen a y Table 5). The a ea shows a nega i e ela ionship
323
be ween biophysical p oduc i i y and a ea, indica ing a s ong esponse in he Czech
324
Republic. The a ea o speci ic c ops is expec ed o dec ease as he p oduc i i y o he
325
c ops inc eases. Clima e change has led o a dec ease in he cul i a ed a eas o mos
326
impac ed c ops, and losses in p oduc ion ha e been o se by impo s om mo e a o able
327
a eas in he EU28. The same in e se ela ionship and ma ke ealloca ion end a e shown
328
16
516
Fig. 5 P ojec ed bila e al ade lows o c ops agg ega ed in 2050 unde he RCP8.5 scena io (in million ons)
517
ac oss ou clima e impac scena ios. (a) No clima e change, (b) Na ional impac , (c) Regional impac , and (d) Global
518
impac . The colo s ep esen egions, wi h he Czech Republic (g een) as he ocal a ea. The hickness o he connec ing
519
lines indica es he ade olume.
520
Czech Republic emains among he op-pe o ming coun ies in e ms o his c op. Aus ia,
521
Ge many, and I aly a e iden i ied as he la ges impo e s o Czech c op commodi ies.
522
In con as , Czech impo s om neighbo ing coun ies in eas -cen al Eu ope ange
523
be ween 1.8 and 1.9 million ons in he no clima e change scena io and global clima e
524
17
impac scena ios, espec i ely. The RCA alues o po a oes and maize a e low, wi h he
525
alue o po a oes below 1 o he Czech Republic and ha o maize lowe han hose o
526
leading key playe s in he EU28, such as Ge many, Slo akia, Hunga y, Slo enia, and
527
Romania. The Czech Republic lags behind bo h he EU28 and global RCA le els,
528
highligh ing i s limi ed compe i i eness in e ms o maize p oduc ion, wi h a alue o
529
app oxima ely 1. A compa a i e disad an age is p ojec ed o po a oes in he Czech
530
Republic, whe e coun ies such as Poland and Belgium exhibi s ong compa a i e
531
ad an ages bo h in he EU28 and globally. Slo akia and he Ne he lands a e he leading
532
expo e s o he Czech Republic, whe e maize and po a oes ep esen 75% o he o al
533
impo s. When clima e change impac s a e isola ed o he Czech Republic, he coun y is
534
p ojec ed o dec ease he o al expo o c ops by 6% and inc ease he o al impo o c ops
535
by 5% compa ed wi h ha in he no clima e change scena io. When clima e change
536
impac s a e applied globally, he o al expo o c ops inc eases by 6%, wi h o al impo s
537
p ojec ed o dec ease by 5% by mid-cen u y. Supplemen a y Tables 5 and 6 show he
538
alues o each commodi y.
539
540
Compa ison wi h global and Eu opean esul s
541
Compa ed wi h he Eu opean Union, he Czech Republic aces mo e conside able
542
p ojec ed biophysical yield educ ions compa ed o he global a e age. The EU28 egion
543
is p ojec ed o expe ience compa a i ely smalle educ ions, mos ly be ween –5% and –
544
15%, while he global impac s a e expec ed o be e en less se e e, ypically be ween –
545
5% and –10% (Supplemen a y Figs. 2–4, 6). P ojec ed biophysical yields o whea a e
546
mo e esilien han hose o maize, anging om –15% o 1% in he EU28 and om –10%
547
o 3% globally, al hough a iabili y inc eases unde high-emission scena ios (RCP8.5)
548
wi hou CO₂ e iliza ion, o which he Czech Republic decline is up o –12%. The a e age
549
biophysical yield changes o he EU28 mask he he e ogeneous impac s o clima e
550
change among coun ies. As he le el o wa ming inc eases om SSP1-2.6 o SSP5-8.5,
551
yield impac s become mo e ex eme, pa icula ly o some sou he n and eas e n
552
Eu opean coun ies. Compa ed wi h o he EU28 coun ies, he Czech Republic
553
expe iences ela i ely modes yield changes, simila o hose in o he Cen al Eu opean
554
coun ies, such as Poland (Supplemen a y Fig. 6). The nega i e ex eme e ec s a e
555
domina ed by C4 c ops such as maize, wi h nega i e e ec s also expec ed in mos o he
556
EU28 coun ies, wi h he mos se e ely a ec ed coun ies being I aly, F ance, C oa ia,
557
and Slo enia. In con as , whea shows a mixed pa e n o impac s, wi h posi i e e ec s
558
in some wes e n and eas -cen al Eu opean coun ies and nega i e e ec s in some
559
no he n and eas e n Eu opean coun ies (Supplemen a y Figs. 3 and 6).
560
The la ge educ ions in he EU28 compa ed wi h he global a e age can be explained by
561
bo h clima ic and s uc u al ac o s. Clima ic condi ions in sou he n and eas e n Eu ope
562
ampli y nega i e impac s, while mo e empe a e egions in cen al and wes e n Eu ope
563
some imes bene i . A he global le el, howe e , ade ealloca ion ac oss con inen s helps
564
bu e p oduc ion losses, dampening he o e all a e age. C op ype sensi i i y u he
565
explains he di e ences: C4 c ops such as maize espond mo e nega i ely o high
566
empe a u es, whe eas C3 c ops such as whea display a b oade ange o ou comes.
567
568
18
Supplemen a y Figs. 8–10 show he economic esponses o he e ec s o clima e change
569
globally and in he EU28 unde egional and global scena ios. Like he Czech Republic,
570
he EU28 is p ojec ed o expe ience mo e a iabili y and se e e impac s han hose
571
obse ed globally. In con as , p ice luc ua ions s and ou , wi h changes anging om –
572
7.5% o +4.5% egionally and –5.0% o +3.2% globally. The consume esponse becomes
573
mo e ele an a he EU28 le el han a he Czech Republic le el, wi h changes anging
574
om –4% o 2% unde egional impac scena ios and om –2.8% o +1.3% in he global
575
impac scena io. Yield and p oduc ion a e posi i ely co ela ed wi h biophysical yields,
576
which a e d i en by clima e impac s in he EU28 and ma ke in e ac ions. An in e se
577
ela ionship is obse ed o he EU28, as o he Czech Republic. Bo h clima e and ma ke
578
e ec s a e g ea e in he global impac scena io han in he egional impac scena io.
579
The o e all e ec o clima e change impac s in he EU28 is a dec ease in p oduc ion
580
despi e shi s in managemen sys ems and a ea expansion. Changes in global indica o s
581
a e ela i ely mino , emaining mos ly wi hin ±1%, excep o p ices, which display g ea e
582
a iabili y, eaching up o 3%. Globally, ade adjus men s and p oduc ion compensa e o
583
he egional e ec s o clima e change, ye c op p ices a e expec ed o su ge. As in he
584
EU28 and he Czech Republic, yield and p oduc ion ha e a posi i e ela ionship wi h
585
biophysical yields, whe eas a ea has an in e se ela ionship. S ong ealloca ion pa e ns
586
ac oss egions, bo h in e ms o managemen p oduc i i y and less so in e ms o a ea,
587
help bu e losses in p oduc ion due o clima e change impac s globally.
588
Discussion
589
We applied a mul ile el amewo k using wo globally consis en models, GLOBIOM and
590
EPIC-IIASA, o e alua e how clima e change a ec s Czech ag icul u e and how he
591
coun y esponds h ough au onomous adap a ion. Unlike ea lie Czech s udies such as
592
Pohanko á e al. (2022), which ocused on biophysical ou pu s o speci ic c op o a ions,
593
and o he ield-based p ojec ions, ou app oach links biophysical yield impac s wi h
594
economic and ade dynamics a he na ional scale. This allows us o mo e beyond single-
595
c op o si e-le el insigh s (e.g., Hla inka e al., 2015) and align ou analysis wi h b oade
596
global amewo ks. While p e ious in e compa ison s udies such as Jäge mey e al.
597
(2021) es ablished simila pa e ns globally, ou s udy uniquely aces how yield changes
598
in he Czech Republic a e ansmi ed h ough in e na ional ma ke s o shape p oduc ion,
599
ade, and compe i i eness. Impo an ly, we inco po a e he la es CMIP6 p ojec ions (Gie
600
e al., 2024), p o iding a mo e ealis ic ep esen a ion o ca bon–ni ogen in e ac ions and
601
land-use dynamics. Ou con ibu ion also complemen s eme ging p o ocols ha explici ly
602
link local p ocesses wi h global dynamics, such as he amewo k o Poláko á e al.
603
(2025). In his con ex , ou s udy demons a es he no el y o si ua ing Czech ag icul u e
604
wi hin a mul ile el amewo k, e ealing adap a ion oppo uni ies and isks ha emain
605
hidden in na ional-only assessmen s.
606
Ou p ojec ions show ha maize is mo e ulne able o clima e s ess han whea ,
607
pa icula ly unde high-emission scena ios, consis en wi h Ei zinge e al. (2013) and
608
T nka e al. (2018). This aligns wi h Pohanko á e al. (2022) and Muench e al. (2024),
609
who emphasized ha po en ial yield gains depend on managemen p ac ices and a me
610
adop ion o adap a ion. We also ind ha na ional-scale assessmen s may o e es ima e
611
19
local yield shocks while unde es ima ing he bu e ing ole o ade. Simila ou comes ha e
612
been obse ed in B azil (Zilli e al., 2020), Gambia (Ca e al., 2024), he UK (Challino e
613
al. 2016), and I eland (Adenaeue e al., 2023). Impo an ly, ou indings highligh
614
ansna ional clima e isks: yield shocks ab oad p opaga e h ough ade and p ices o
615
in luence Czech p oduc ion and compe i i eness. This echoes s udies on Eu ope’s c oss-
616
bo de ulne abili ies showing ha d ough s o losses ou side he EU can signi ican ly
617
a ec i s ood secu i y and economy (E cin e al., 2019; E cin e al., 2021).
618
Land expansion eme ged as he dominan au onomous adap a ion s a egy, especially
619
unde global scena ios whe e p ice signals a e ansmi ed ia ade. This e lec s Czech
620
Republic’s ela i ely a o able land base, which is less a ec ed by d ough han in
621
neighbo ing coun ies (Ei zinge e al., 2013). Ye he scope o expansion is limi ed: unde
622
he Common Ag icul u al Policy (CAP), con e sion o pe manen g assland is p ohibi ed
623
in p o ec ed a eas and hea ily es ic ed elsewhe e (Minis y o Ag icul u e o he Czech
624
Republic 2022), and expansion would ca y en i onmen al cos s including biodi e si y
625
loss, g eenhouse gas emissions, and educed ecosys em se ices (Lo enco á e al.,
626
2013; Papadimi iou e al., 2019). Thus, while land expansion p o ides an immedia e
627
bu e agains yield shocks, i is unlikely o be sus ainable. In p ac ice, adap a ion will ely
628
mo e on ealloca ing wi hin exis ing a able land, main aining ecological a eas, adop ing
629
soil-conse ing p ac ices, and adjus ing ade.
630
Reliance on a na ow se o commodi ies also inc eases ulne abili y. Whea , ba ley, and
631
apeseed domina e Czech expo s (e.g., bee , eed), and while hey a e well cap u ed in
632
GLOBIOM, he model does no di e en ia e o ganic e sus con en ional a ming. This is
633
impo an as o ganic a ming is p ojec ed o each 21% o land by 2028, and policy
634
measu es aim o s eng hen ui , ege able, hops, wine, and apicul u e sec o s (Minis y
635
o Ag icul u e o he Czech Republic 2022). Planned adap a ion is he e o e being
636
eo ien ed owa d soil, wa e , and biodi e si y ou comes while sus aining compe i i eness.
637
C op di e si ica ion, combined wi h sus ainable in ensi ica ion, should complemen land
638
expansion o enhance esilience and long- e m compe i i eness.
639
The implica ions o ou esul s ex end beyond p oduc ion o he policy and ins i u ional
640
dimensions o adap a ion. CAP egula ions p o ec g asslands, we lands, and ecological
641
ea u es, making la ge-scale expansion legally and economically di icul (Minis y o
642
Ag icul u e o he Czech Republic 2022). Fa me s also ace inancial and p ac ical
643
ba ie s, such as high up on in es men s, une en ad iso y suppo , and unce ain y o e
644
clima e and ma ke s. Consequen ly, ealis ic adap a ion pa hways in he Czech Republic
645
will depend on CAP-compa ible s a egies such as ealloca ing exis ing a able land,
646
adop ing soil-conse ing p ac ices, and di e si ying in o esilien o highe - alue c ops. A
647
he EU scale, p oduc ion ealloca ion among membe s a es helps bu e localized shocks
648
bu gene a es dis ibu ional consequences ac oss egions. Globally, ade in eg a ion
649
s abilizes supply and p ices bu exposes small open economies like he Czech Republic
650
o isks om egula o y misma ches, o sudden dis up ions. Na ional-only assessmen s
651
ha igno e hese dynamics isk maladap a ion by o e s a ing sel -su iciency and
652
unde es ima ing he bene i s and ade-o s o global in eg a ion. By embedding Czech
653
ag icul u e in a mul ile el amewo k, ou s udy shows ha e ec i e adap a ion equi es
654
20
a en ion o bo h domes ic and ansna ional dimensions, p o iding a s onge ounda ion
655
o policies ha enhance esilience while minimizing unin ended ade-o s.
656
Conclusion
657
658
Ou s udy con ibu es o he g owing body o esea ch ha mo es beyond isola ed yield
659
p ojec ions owa d sys emic, mul iscale assessmen s o ag icul u al esilience. By
660
si ua ing Czech ag icul u e wi hin a ade-media ed global con ex and complemen ing
661
ecen ad ances in local- o-global modeling, we p o ide a no el pe spec i e ha be e
662
cap u es bo h he oppo uni ies and isks o au onomous adap a ion. The esul s highligh
663
he impo ance o in eg a ing global ag icul u al impac s and ade dynamics in o na ional
664
clima e change assessmen s. Accoun ing o in e na ional ma ke in e ac ions e eals a
665
g ea e adap i e capaci y o he Czech Republic han sugges ed by na ional-only
666
analyses, pa icula ly h ough ade-d i en esponses and land-use ealloca ion. Howe e ,
667
hea y eliance on land expansion aises sus ainabili y conce ns, unde sco ing he need
668
o policies ha balance adap a ion wi h mi iga ion and en i onmen al p o ec ion. These
669
indings ein o ce he alue o mul iscale app oaches o in o ming obus adap a ion
670
planning. Policymake s should p io i ize s a egies ha le e age ade and ma ke
671
esponses while ad ancing sus ainable in ensi ica ion and esou ce-e icien p ac ices.
672
O e emphasis on sel -su iciency isks unde es ima ing adap a ion po en ial and
673
inc easing ulne abili y, whe eas ade-based s a egies can bu e na ional shocks,
674
enhance esilience, and op imize esou ce use. Fo small, open economies such as he
675
Czech Republic, ecognizing he in e play be ween domes ic esponses and ansna ional
676
clima e isks will be c i ical o achie ing sus ainable and e ec i e adap a ion.
677
678
Acknowledgmen s
679
680
We ex end ou g a i ude o he In eg a ed Biosphe e Fu u es (IBF) g oup a he
681
In e na ional Ins i u e o Applied Sys ems Analysis (IIASA) o hei in aluable suppo
682
and expe ise, which signi ican ly con ibu ed o he de elopmen o his s udy. We also
683
wish o hono he memo y o Hind Rajab and P o esso Re aa Ala ee . Thei li es and
684
wo k con inue o inspi e us o pu sue esea ch ha ad ances unde s anding, equi y, and
685
esilience in he ace o global challenges.
686
687
Funding
688
689
This s udy was inancially suppo ed by Zhodnocení li u klima ických změn na
690
zeměděls í e S řední a Východní E opě kon ex u globálních podmínek (SP2210041
691
- AF-IGA2021-IP015) and by he Minis y o Educa ion, You h and Spo s o he Czech
692
Republic (g an AdAg iF - Ad anced me hods o g eenhouse gases emission educ ion
693
and seques a ion in ag icul u e and o es landscape o clima e change mi iga ion
694
(CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635).
695
696
Au ho con ibu ions
697
698
21
JAG, PH and MT de eloped he concep ual amewo k; JAG and EB de eloped he
699
scena ios, me hodological amewo k and imp o ed model (GLOBIOM). JAG w o e he
700
ini ial manusc ip and pe o med he da a analysis. MT, PH, EB, IPH and PAH edi ed
701
and commen ed on he manusc ip . IPH and PAH con ibu ed o he discussion wi h
702
JAG. MT supe ised he p ojec .
703
704
Con lic o in e es
705
The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no con lic s o in e es .
706
707
Da a a ailabili y
708
The code and da a used in he scena io analyses a e a ailable om he co esponding
709
au ho upon eques .
710
711
22
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746
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811
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Nagle Al e io G, Ajibade I, Bowen K, Chauhan N, Galappa h hi E, Hudson AJ,
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Mach K, Musah-Su ugu J, Pe zold J, Reckien D, Schaube ge B, Segnon A, Van
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zemědělské poli iky České epubliky na období 2023–2027 ( e ze 6). P ague
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S, Alb ech F (2014) Global ood ma ke s, ade and he cos o clima e change
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adap a ion. Food Secu 6(1):29–44. h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s12571-013-0319-z
826
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827
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828
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829
Robinson S, Schmid E, Schmi z C, Tabeau A, Willenbockel D (2014) Clima e
830
change e ec s on ag icul u e: Economic esponses o biophysical shocks. P oc
831
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834
sha ed socioeconomic pa hways. Clim Change 122(3):387–400.
835
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in e ac ions in na ional-scale clima e change impac s assessmen — he case o
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861
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863
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865
27:100855. h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100855
866
32
yes
RCP 8.5
0,00
0,00
2,33
0,18
-0,20
no
RCP 8.5
0,00
-1,68
3,21
-2,87
1,43
yes
RCP 8.5
GFDL-ESM4
0,00
0,00
1,98
0,15
-0,96
IPSL-CM6A-LR
0,00
0,00
2,33
0,18
-1,04
MPI-ESM1-2-HR
0,00
0,00
1,86
0,14
-0,14
MRI-ESM2-0
0,00
0,00
1,11
0,09
-1,34
UKESM1-0-LL
0,00
-1,68
3,56
-2,84
1,65
yes
RCP 2.6
Mean GCM
ensemble
Poul y mea
0,00
0,00
0,11
0,01
0,19
no
RCP 2.6
0,01
0,00
-0,21
-0,04
0,98
yes
RCP 7.0
-0,01
0,00
7,31
0,86
-0,11
no
RCP 7.0
0,03
0,00
0,46
0,00
2,38
yes
RCP 8.5
0,02
0,00
0,80
0,06
0,37
no
RCP 8.5
0,00
0,00
-0,20
-2,70
3,03
yes
RCP 8.5
GFDL-ESM4
0,07
0,00
2,55
0,17
0,09
IPSL-CM6A-LR
0,04
0,00
0,11
-0,07
0,76
MPI-ESM1-2-HR
0,07
0,00
0,72
-0,04
0,20
MRI-ESM2-0
-0,03
0,00
0,11
0,08
-0,61
UKESM1-0-LL
0,03
-0,98
0,50
-2,66
2,69
973
Supplemen a y Table 7 | Changes in a e age c opland, g assland and o he na u a land a eas o he
974
Czech Republic and he EU28 a ela i e o he no-clima e-change baseline ac oss RCP and GCM
975
scena ios Resul s a e p esen ed o scena ios whe e clima e impac s a e applied only o he Czech
976
Republic (na ional), he EU28 ( egional) and o he en i e wo ld (global).
977
Czech Republic
C opland a ea [%]
G assland a ea [%]
O he na u al land a eas [%]
Clima e impac scena io
Na ional
Regional
Global
Na ional
Regional
Global
Na ional
Regional
Global
Clima e Scena io
RCP 2.6
2.09
3.01
-0.07
-0.04
0.00
0.00
-12.68
-18.33
0.42
RCP 2.6 wo CO2
0.22
3.51
4.64
0.02
-0.04
-2.15
-1.31
-21.34
-24.40
RCP 7.0
2.67
0.47
-0.57
-0.04
0.01
0.02
-16.23
-2.87
3.41
RCP 7.0 wo CO2
0.04
4.44
7.11
0.00
-2.13
-2.15
-0.26
-23.32
-39.50
RCP 8.5
2.66
3.83
3.38
-1.54
-2.04
-2.04
-13.49
-19.73
-16.99
RCP 8.5 wo CO2
0.25
7.17
11.29
-0.02
-2.15
-2.15
-1.50
-39.83
-64.99
A e age
1.32
3.74
4.30
-0.27
-1.06
-1.41
-7.58
-20.90
-23.68
EU28
C opland a ea [%]
G assland a ea [%]
O he na u al land a eas [%]
Clima e impac scena io
Na ional
Regional
Global
Na ional
Regional
Global
Na ional
Regional
Global
Clima e Scena io
RCP 2.6
0.47
0.71
0.41
-0.08
-0.04
0.02
-4.82
-5.90
-14.37
RCP 2.6 wo CO2
0.37
0.90
1.63
-0.06
-0.11
-0.10
-3.24
-9.97
-19.85
33
RCP 7.0
0.43
0.44
0.01
-0.04
-0.08
-0.03
-3.91
-7.50
-33.04
RCP 7.0 wo CO2
0.26
1.35
1.97
-0.04
-0.13
-0.12
-2.43
-15.96
-4.21
RCP 8.5
0.58
0.88
0.75
-0.10
-0.08
-0.04
-5.92
-11.24
-5.67
RCP 8.5 wo CO2
0.44
1.96
3.36
-0.05
-0.14
-0.19
-4.13
-22.40
-10.28
A e age
0.43
1.04
1.35
-0.06
-0.10
-0.08
-4.07
-12.16
-14.57
978
979
Supplemen a y Table 8 | A e age c op p oduc ion and p ice impac s o he Czech Republic and he
980
EU28 ela i e o he no clima e change SCENARIO ac oss RCP and GCM scena ios. Changes in
981
p oduc ion ( op) and p ice (bo om) o majo ag icul u al commodi ies a e p esen ed o scena ios whe e
982
clima e impac s a e applied only o he Czech Republic (na ional), he EU28 ( egional) and o he en i e
983
wo ld (global).
984
P oduc ion
Czech Republic
EU28
Clima e impac scena io
Na ional
Regional
Global
Na ional
Regional
Global
Whea
2.33
3.08
2.82
0.83
0.66
0.28
Maize
-0.08
-0.80
-0.68
-0.52
-0.46
-1.41
Ba ley
5.27
7.52
6.47
0.03
-0.40
-2.62
Rapeseed
3.82
5.50
5.06
1.37
0.90
2.07
Po a oes
-0.31
-0.22
0.15
-0.13
-0.41
-0.35
P ices
Czech Republic
EU28
Clima e impac scena io
Na ional
Regional
Global
Na ional
Regional
Global
Whea
1.20
-1.10
-1.79
0.37
0.54
0.39
Maize
1.98
3.05
2.71
9.81
1.45
6.92
Ba ley
0.32
2.74
1.21
0.61
1.49
-0.55
Rapeseed
0.89
1.49
1.91
0.88
1.61
1.80
Po a oes
0.18
0.92
1.27
0.15
0.29
0.34
985
986
34
987
Supplemen a y Table 9 | In e cep and slope coe icien s o Supplemen a y Fig. 9 o he Eu opean
988
Union + UK.
989
Clima e impac
scena io
Na ional
Regional
Global
Va iable
In e cep
Slope
In e cep
Slope
In e cep
Slope
Yield
-0.14
2.48
-0.07
0.69
-0.06
0.73
A ea
0.42
-0.79
0.40
-0.25
0.15
-0.44
P oduc ion
0.29
1.71
0.34
0.45
0.11
0.32
Consump ion
0.24
0.16
0.18
0.15
0.33
0.20
Expo s
0.56
5.24
-1.65
0.53
-2.81
0.33
Impo s
0.37
-0.23
-1.91
-0.47
-1.73
-0.07
P ices
0.49
-1.63
0.69
-0.36
0.19
-0.58
990
Supplemen a y Table 10 | In e cep and slope coe icien s globally o Supplemen a y Fig. 9
991
Clima e impac
scena io
Na ional
Regional
Global
Va iable
In e cep
Slope
In e cep
Slope
In e cep
Slope
Yield
0.01
-10.24
-0.09
-0.05
-0.32
0.28
A ea
-0.04
10.08
0.04
0.14
0.43
-0.16
P oduc ion
-0.03
-0.15
-0.05
0.09
0.10
0.13
Consump ion
-0.03
-0.15
-0.05
0.09
0.10
0.13
P ices
0.06
9.17
0.16
0.04
-0.56
-0.49
992
993
35
Supplemen a y Figu es
994
995
996
997
998
999
1000
Supplemen a y Fig. 1| Regional classi ica ion o Eu opean coun ies and he es o he wo ld o he
1001
in e na ional ade analysis. The map ca ego izes he egions in o he Czech Republic (g een), Cen al
1002
Eas (pink), Wes (blue), No h (pu ple), Sou h (o ange), and Res o he Wo ld (yellow).
1003
1004
36
1005
Supplemen a y Fig. 2 | E olu ion o ce eal and oilseed ade in he Czech Republic unde al e na i e
1006
clima e impac scena ios. Panels show p ojec ed impo s and expo s o (a) whea , (b) apeseed, and (c)
1007
ba ley be ween 2020 and 2050. Lines indica e mean changes ac oss GCMs, wi h colo s ep esen ing
1008
clima e scena ios (RCP2.6, RCP7.0, RCP8.5). Shaded ibbons deno e he ange o unce ain y ac oss
1009
GCMs. Resul s a e shown o h ee le els o clima e impac agg ega ion: Na ional (CZ), Regional (EU28),
1010
and Global (Wo ld).
1011
1012
37
1013
Supplemen a y Fig. 3 | Pe cen age change in biophysical c op agg ega ed yields unde h ee Sha ed-
1014
Socioeconomic Pa hways (SSP)- Rep esen a i e Concen a ion Pa hways (RCPs), calcula ed as
1015
a e ages o Gene al Ci cula ion Models (GCMs): (a) SPP1- 2.6 (b) SSP3 - 7.0, and (c) SSP5 - 8.5 wi h
1016
CO2 e ec . The x-axis ep esen s indi idual coun ies and egions g ouped geog aphically, while he y-axis
1017
shows pe cen age yield changes ela i e o a non-clima e-change scena io. The colo s o he ba s
1018
ep esen ed EU28 egions used in he analysis o in e na ional ade.
1019
38
1020
Supplemen a y Fig. 4 | Pe cen age change in biophysical whea agg ega ed yields unde h ee Sha ed-
1021
Socioeconomic Pa hways (SSP)- Rep esen a i e Concen a ion Pa hways (RCPs), calcula ed as
1022
a e ages o Gene al Ci cula ion Models (GCMs): (a) SPP1- 2.6 (b) SSP3 - 7.0, and (c) SSP5 - 8.5 wi h
1023
CO2 e ec . The x-axis ep esen s indi idual coun ies and egions g ouped geog aphically, while he y-axis
1024
shows pe cen age yield changes ela i e o a non-clima e-change scena io. The colo s o he ba s
1025
ep esen ed EU28 egions used in he analysis o in e na ional ade.
1026
1027
39
1028
Supplemen a y Fig. 5 | Pe cen age change in biophysical maize agg ega ed yields unde h ee Sha ed-
1029
Socioeconomic Pa hways (SSP)- Rep esen a i e Concen a ion Pa hways (RCPs), calcula ed as
1030
a e ages o Gene al Ci cula ion Models (GCMs): (a) SPP1- 2.6 (b) SSP3 - 7.0, and (c) SSP5 - 8.5 wi h
1031
CO2 e ec . The x-axis ep esen s indi idual coun ies and egions g ouped geog aphically, while he y-axis
1032
shows pe cen age yield changes ela i e o a non-clima e-change scena io. The colo s o he ba s
1033
ep esen ed EU28 egions used in he analysis o in e na ional ade.
1034
1035
1036
40
1037
Supplemen a y Fig. 6 | Re ealed Compa a i e Ad an age (RCA) o i e key ag icul u al commodi ies (a:
1038
Whea , b: Maize, c: Ba ley, d: Rapeseed, e: Po a oes) ac oss he Eu opean Union (EU) coun ies, he
1039
EU28 egion, and global a e ages unde a ious clima e impac scena ios. The RCA index e lec s he
1040
ela i e expo compe i i eness o a coun y in a speci ic c op, wi h alues abo e 1 indica ing a
1041
compa a i e ad an age. Di e en clima e impac scena ios a e ep esen ed by dis inc symbols and
1042
di e en clima e change scena ios by dis inc i e colo s
1043
1044
41
1045
Supplemen a y Fig. 7 | P ojec ed biophysical yield changes (%) wi h espec o he non clima e change
1046
scena io o whea , maize, and agg ega e c ops in he Eu opean Union COUNTRIES plus Uni ed Kindom,
1047
and globally unde di e en clima e scena ios and Gene al Ci cula ion Models (GCMs). Ba s ep esen
1048
GCM-a e aged alues, and indi idual poin s co espond o speci ic GCMs
1049
