Mu els, Ruud J. A.; Foua ge, Didie J. A. G.
A icle
Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope
Schmolle s Jah buch – Zei sch i ü Wi scha s- und Sozialwissenscha en. Jou nal o Applied
Social Science S udies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Mu els, Ruud J. A.; Foua ge, Didie J. A. G. (2002) : Wo king P o iles and
Employmen Regimes in Eu ope, Schmolle s Jah buch – Zei sch i ü Wi scha s- und
Sozialwissenscha en. Jou nal o Applied Social Science S udies, ISSN 1865-5742, Duncke &
Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 122, Iss. 1, pp. 85-109,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/292007
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002), 85-110
Duncke
&
Humblo , Be lin
Wo king P o iles and
Employmen Regimes in Eu ope
By Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge
Abs ac
Fo a la ge po ion o socie y, wo king li e becomes a con inuing sequence o sho
employmen and unemploymen spells. The aim o his empi ical pape using h ee
wa es o he Eu opean Communi y Household Panel (1994-1996) is o acqui e a dee-
pe insigh in o he lows on he labou ma ke and he ac o s ha migh be espon-
sible o he g ea a ia ions in hese employmen pa e ns be ween indi iduals and
households bo h wi hin and ac oss coun ies. The ocus will be especially on longi u-
dinal pa e ns o employmen acco ding o he a achmen o he pe son o he labou
ma ke in a gi en pe iod o ime. These longi udinal employmen pa e ns a e called
wo king p o iles and i is claimed ha hese p o iles p o ide a be e insigh in o
mode n labou ma ke s because o hei ocus on he dynamics o changes o employ-
men and unemploymen s a us o e ime. We use an amended e sion o Esping-An-
de sen's wel a e s a e ypology o es whe he longi udinal employmen pa e ns di -
e ac oss hese egimes acco ding o he ypical ins i u ional se -ups o hei labou
ma ke and social secu i y policies. We added a Sou he n egime ype because we
ound ha he classi ica ion including such a egime ype pe o ms be e in explain-
ing di e ences in longi udinal employmen pa e ns ac oss Eu ope han one wi hou
i . Wi hin a job sea ch heo e ical amewo k we es ima ed some mul inomial logi
models o es whe he indeed egime ypes ma e in explaining ansi ions in long-
i udinal employmen s a uses o e ime. The esul s show ha egimes ma e and
ha he Sou he n egime pe o ms ma kedly di e en compa ed o he o he h ee
egime ypes.
JEL-Classi ica ion: J 64, C 23
1. Wo king P o iles and Changing Concep s o Wo k1
The concep s o wo k a e changing. Li e- ime employmen , meaning
wo king 40 hou s a week o 50 weeks a yea o e a 40-yea pe iod o en
1 The analyses in his pape we e ca ied ou as pa o a esea ch p ojec o he
Eu opean Panel Analysis G oup (EPAG; h p://www.ise .essex.ac.uk/epag). Funding
by he Eu opean Commission in he amewo k o he TSER p og am 'The Panel P o-
jec ; Eu opean Panel Analysis' (SOE2.CT96.3023) is g ea ly acknowledged. We a e
g a e ul o Richa d Be houd and wo anonymous e e ees o hei commen s.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
86 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
wi h he same o a limi ed numbe o employe s, is losing g ound in a ou
o mo e lexible and di e se pa e ns o li e- ime employmen . Eu opean
economic and mone a y in eg a ion will gi e a u he impe us o he up-
swing o he p ocess o inc easing mobili y and u no e on he labou ma -
ke .
The ise o a ypical wo k and non-s anda d con ac s e lec s he need o
i ms o adap quickly o apidly changing ma ke condi ions. These ma ke
changes a e eme ging pa icula ly om de elopmen s in in o ma ion and
communica ion echnologies. The no ion o he ' lexible i m' implies ha
he adap abili y o i ms as a as pe sonnel managemen is conce ned, is
pa ly also es ablished by he c ea ion o co e and pe iphe al wo ke s seg-
men s. The exis ence o hese wo segmen s does no necessa ily imply ha
he e is no o li le mobili y be ween hem. On he con a y, o heo e ical
as well as empi ical easons i migh be ue ha he mobili y wi hin and
be ween he wo segmen s is a he high and, he e o e, o e all labou u n-
o e migh e en ise. Images o segmen a ion and dynamics a e wo sides o
he same coin. Some indi iduals wi hin he pe iphe al g oup o wo ke s
migh mo e quickly in o pe manen jobs while o he s keep wande ing
a ound in he lowe s a a o he labou ma ke . Bu nei he a e co e wo k-
e s deemed o s ay in he same jobs; on he con a y 'job-hopping' migh be
a be e s a egy o aise one's long- e m ca ee p ospec s o pe manen in-
come han s aying wi h he same employe .
Qui e a ew indi iduals belonging o he be e s a a o he labou ma ke
migh expe ience apid mo es om one job o ano he ei he wi hin he i m
o in he ex e nal labou ma ke . Whe he his is ac ually he case o all
wo ke s migh be ques ionable, bu he image o a wo ld wi h la ge segmen-
a ion and ha dly any mobili y is a om eali y. The concep o a ' ansi-
ional labou ma ke ' migh gain impo ance in cu en labou ma ke s.
This implies ha o a a he la ge po ion o socie y, wo king li e becomes
a con inuing sequence o sho employmen and unemploymen spells. Li e-
ime employmen wi h he same employe , al hough s ill he eali y o many
wo ke s, will inc easingly be una ainable o many new en an s o he la-
bou ma ke . This lea es aside he ac ha mode n wo ke s a e likely o be
unwilling o s ay wi h he same i m o hei en i e ca ee due o changes in
labou and leisu e p e e ences (Mu els, 2000).
The aim o his pape is o acqui e a deepe insigh in o hese lows on he
labou ma ke and he ac o s ha migh be esponsible o he g ea a ia-
ions in hese employmen pa e ns be ween indi iduals and households
bo h wi hin and ac oss coun ies. The ocus will be especially on pa e ns o
pa ial employmen acco ding o he a achmen o he pe son o he labou
ma ke in a gi en pe iod o ime. These employmen pa e ns a e called
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 87
wo king p o iles and i is claimed ha hese p o iles p o ide a be e insigh
in o mode n labou ma ke s because o hei ocus on he dynamics o
changes o employmen and unemploymen s a us o e ime. The a ach-
men o he labou ma ke o e a ce ain ime and pa icula ly he leng h o
he in e mi en pe iods o wi hd awal om he labou ma ke de e mine
he ex en o which people a e in ull o pa ial employmen and he ewi h,
whe he hey a e ully o pa ially included.
Then, in a dynamic pe spec i e, labou ma ke exclusion e e s o longi-
udinal employmen pa e ns o e ime wi h in e mi en pe iods o unem-
ploymen , disabili y o , e en, ea ly e i emen . These in e mi en pe iods o
wi hd awal cons i u e cases o exclusion only in so a as hese a e en o ced
due o collec i e layo s, disabili y o e i emen . I hey a e he esul o ee
will, as migh be ue o empo a y jobs o pa - ime employmen , i is no
jus i ied o speak o exclusion because people p e e hese jobs o hei
sho e wo king hou s o o ende ing mo e leisu e ime. Wi h inc easing
age, in many cases a o ced e ea om he labou ma ke can be obse ed
due o e i emen , edundancy o collec i e layo s. The e o e, labou ma -
ke exclusion in e ms o en o ced idleness migh apply o he long- e m un-
employed, hose seeking wo k bu no able o ge he job hey wan , he un-
de employed who wo k less han hey wan and he disabled and senio
wo ke s who a e no expec ed o wo k. Howe e , he e is li le in o ma ion
in he da a o he Eu opean Communi y Household Panel abou whe he he
exclusion is due o en o ced idleness o ee will and p e e ences o lei-
su e.2 Especially o emale and olde wo ke s his neglec o he un o ced
o o ced na u e o exclusion migh lead o an o e -es ima ion o he ex en
o exclusion. The e is no much we can do he e excep o be cau ious abou
d awing a - eaching conclusions on he ex en o labou ma ke exclusion.
The e o e, when we use he e m 'exclusion' i is in an non-no ma i e, posi-
i e sense, meaning ha he excluded do no ake pa in he labou ma ke ,
wi hou sugges ing ha i is en o ced idleness ha makes hem 'excluded'.
Da a
As employmen pa e ns a e a ec ed by he design o he ins i u ional se -
ing in each coun y and by he p ocess o Eu opean in eg a ion, single
coun y s udies and 'snap-sho ' compa isons will no su ice. The e o e, we
decided o use he Eu opean Communi y Household Panel (ECHP) co e ing
2 The e is some in o ma ion on he numbe o hou s people wan o wo k o he
e e ence week, he week jus be o e he da e o in e iew, bu no on he numbe o
annual hou s people wan o wo k. Howe e , ha is he kind o in o ma ion needed i
he idea is o use he mon hly calenda in o ma ion o de e mine longi udinal wo k
p o iles.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
88 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
all EU coun ies excep Sweden. The ECHP is an a emp o collec socio-
economic in o ma ion on income, labou ma ke and demog aphic changes,
applying common de ini ions, da a collec ion me hods and da a edi ing and
cleaning p ocedu es. We used he i s h ee wa es om 1994 o 1996.
Hence, he in o ma ion abou ansi ions on he labou ma ke cap u es 36
mon hs o obse a ion. A he Eu opean le el, h ee yea s seem su icien o
obse e a subs an ial numbe o ansi ions om s eady jobs in o ma ginal
employmen and ice e sa, and om one longi udinal employmen s a us
in o he o he . Cu en ly, ou wa es o he ECHP ha e become a ailable
co e ing he yea s 1994 o 1997. The ou -wa e da ase con ains in o ma ion
on all EU coun ies including some Swedish da a.
De ini ions o Longi udinal (Unemploymen
Conside ing he ela i ely sho obse a ion pe iod in he mid-nine ies, i
canno be uled ou ha he mobili y pa e ns we obse e a e in luenced by
di e ences in he business cycle ac oss coun ies. A he ime o obse a-
ion, howe e , all coun ies unde sc u iny we e in he same (upwa d) phase
o he business cycle.
The ocus in his pape is on longi udinal employmen and unemploymen
pa e ns. The ECHP p o ides in o ma ion on he ac i i y s a us o he e-
sponden o each mon h in he calenda yea p io o he in e iew da e.
The ac i i y s a us a iable is hen ans e ed o a longi udinal ac i i y s a-
us a iable called 'main s a us', i.e. he mos equen s a us obse ed on a
mon hly basis o e he 36 mon hs o obse a ion. The equency o mon hly
s a us, hen, de e mines whe he people a e employed, unemployed o inac-
i e o e he 36-mon h pe iod (usual s a us). In addi ion o he 'usual s a-
us', e e yone whose main s a us is 'no wo king' in a pa icula mon h has
been ea ed as being unemployed. The e o e, in his app oach people a e
conside ed inac i e only when hey we e no wo king du ing all o he 36-
mon h pe iod, i.e. no wo king all o he ime.
2. Uni o Analysis
The uni o analysis is he indi idual wi hin he household. The esea ch
subjec in ol es he unemploymen p o ile o he pe son bu i is assumed
ha his indi idual p o ile is a ec ed by he social and economic si ua ion
o he household, which, in u n, means he labou ma ke and inancial si-
ua ion o he indi idual household membe s. Implici ly, i is he ewi h as-
sumed ha al hough indi idualisa ion pa e ns a e widesp ead, he house-
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54

Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 89
hold is s ill he economic uni wi hin which impo an decisions wi h e-
spec o labou supply a e join ly made. In ou empi ical models, in o ma-
ion on he household is, he e o e, included o ake accoun o he ole o
he amily wi h ega d o employmen decisions. Only he adul s o wo king
age a e conside ed in he analyses.
Wo k insecu i y has been de ined as a weak a achmen o he labou ma -
ke in a longi udinal sense (wo king less han 50% o he po en ial 36-
mon h wo king pe iod). Because he obse a ion pe iod is a he sho , only
sho wo k pa e ns can be obse ed. I he ime ho izon could be ex ended,
wo king pa e ns migh change.
To say ha i people a e wo king less han 50% o he po en ial wo king
ime o e a h ee-yea pe iod hey a e wo k-insecu e does no imply ha
hey conside hemsel es o be, o eel, wo k-insecu e. The subjec i e wo k-
secu i y s a us also depends on hei p e e ences o wo k; i.e. he numbe
o mon hs and hou s hey ac ually wan o wo k. In he ECHP he e is some
in o ma ion on whe he people a e looking o a job and o how many
hou s. I is no known how many mon hs du ing a yea hey eally wan o
wo k and o wha easons hey wan o wo k less han he ull 12 mon hs.
In u u e esea ch he issue o how hese labou supply a iables migh a -
ec he ou comes o ou analyses will ce ainly be ackled.
3. Employmen Regimes and Flexible Labou
Compa a i e esea ch in o he labou ma ke should ake accoun o he
e idence ha s ocks and lows on he labou ma ke a e a ec ed no only by
he demog aphic and economic si ua ion a he coun y le el bu also by
c oss-na ional ins i u ional di e ences e lec ed in labou ma ke policies
and social secu i y designs. Looking a he na ional se ings i appea s ha
he e is g ea a ie y in goals, objec i es, ools, ins i u ions and policies. De-
spi e his a ie y, he idea ha hese sys ems clus e one way o ano he in a
limi ed se o wel a e and employmen egimes is well-known in he li e a-
u e. These egimes ep esen di e en 'wo lds o wel a e capi alism' (Esp-
ing-Ande sen, 1990, 1996, 1999), each being in e nally igh ly in eg a ed,
and each being sha ply di e en ia ed om one ano he (Goodin e al.,
1999). Each wel a e s a e is, o cou se, uniquely de ined by i s own logic in
e ms o ins i u ional se -up, policy design, and unc ioning bu as sug-
ges ed by Esping-Ande sen also clus e s a ound some dis inc 'ideal- ypi-
cal' egime ype. His ypology was c i icised by au ho s like Leib ied
(1992), Fe e a (1996) and Bonoli (1997) o his neglec o wha hey called a
Sou he n o 'La in-Rim' model o he wel a e s a e. They a gued ha he
Sou he n, Medi e anean coun ies belong o a di e en wel a e egime
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002)1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
90 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
ype wi h i s amilial cha ac e is ics and i s imma u e and selec i e social
secu i y sys em g an ing poo bene i s and lacking a gua an eed minimum
bene i sys em. Esping-Ande sen admi ed in his la e wo k (1996) ha he
Sou he n coun ies sha e some Ca holic and amilial adi ions bu do no
o m a speci ic ype o g oup o coun ies, bu we e me ely unde de eloped
o ms o he adi ional Co po a is ype (A s and Gelissen, 1999).
This issue will no be elabo a ed u he he e, since he da a limi a ions
con ine us wi hin he le el o de ailed analysis. The ECHP da a co e ansi-
ional da a o a pe iod o h ee yea s only and since a numbe o coun y
samples a e small in size like Luxembou g, he Ne he lands, Belgium,
G eece and I eland, he e is a lack o su icien ansi ions o conduc de-
ailed analyses. Since he ECHP da a con ain in o ma ion on he Sou he n
Eu opean coun ies, i is easible o es whe he he Sou he n labou ma -
ke s show an essen ially dis inc pa e n. One could op o a egional classi-
ica ion in o No he n, Cen al Eu opean and Sou he n Eu opean coun ies.
Apa om he lack o heo e ical unde pinnings o such a dis inc ion, i s
disad an age is also ha he UK, I eland and he No dic coun ies like
Denma k and Finland would be classi ied unde he same heading. Acco d-
ing o Esping-Ande sen's classi ica ion o libe al, conse a i e-co po a is
and social-democ a ic coun ies (1990) he UK and I eland, as libe al wel-
a e s a es in an 'ideal- ypical'sense, should be se apa om he No dic
(Denma k and Finland; he ECHP does no con ain any in o ma ion on No -
way o Sweden ye ) and con inen al social-democ a ic wel a e s a es (Ne h-
e lands). The classi ica ion o I eland unde he libe al heading by Esping-
Ande sen (1990, 1999) is, howe e , a he doub ul. Conside ing a ange o
labou ma ke indica o s, i only sha es he libe al ea u e o a low le el o
employmen p o ec ion egula ion. Looking a he o he labou ma ke indi-
ca o s i seems o sha e he co po a is ea u e o an ac i e labou ma ke
policy and he co po a is 'b eadwinne 's s a e' cha ac e is ic o a low e-
male employmen a e. In e ms o amilial cha ac e is ics, i sha es he y-
pical ea u es o a Sou he n wel a e s a e. I eland should, he e o e, be con-
side ed as pa o a hyb id ype o wel a e s a e ha does no i in o any o
he 'ideal- ypical' wel a e s a es. In o de o a oid he inclusion o I eland
as he only example o a hyb id ype i was decided o keep i unde he
same libe al heading as he UK and o es , using he h ee-wa e Eu opean
panel-da a, whe he ha makes sense empi ically. Fo ha eason i was
decided o use an amended e sion o Esping-Ande sen's classi ica ion. The
UK and I eland emain unde he libe al heading, no wi hs anding ou e-
se a ions o I eland, bu he Sou he n wel a e s a es a e se apa as a dis-
inc egime (A s and Gelissen, 1999; Goodin e al., 1999). Coun ies like
Ge many, Belgium, F ance, Aus ia and Luxembou g belong o a con inen-
al co po a is ype o wel a e s a e and he Ne he lands and he No dic
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 91
wel a e egimes a e classi ied unde he social-democ a ic egime heading.
The Sou he n egime clus e includes Spain, Po ugal, G eece and I aly.3
Since ou analyses in ol e he labou ma ke pe o mance o hese wel a e
egimes, we will use he e m employmen egime ins ead o wel a e egime.
4. Tempo a y Employmen and Flexible Labou Con ac s
The e is some e idence (Eu opean Commission, 1999; OECD, 1999) ha
he Sou he n labou ma ke s a e indeed qui e di e en om he labou
ma ke s in No he n and Cen al Eu ope in some espec s (employmen eg-
ula ion, unemploymen le el, sha e o non-s anda d jobs o lexible labou ,
sha e o in o mal economy). This can be shown when he dis ibu ion o
non-s anda d and empo a y employmen is looked a ac oss a numbe o
Eu opean coun ies.4 In Table
1
he igu es on he dis ibu ion o empo a y,
casual and o he ypes o non-s anda d employmen a e depic ed o 1996,
he la es yea o which we ha e in o ma ion.
Looking a he igu es o non-s anda d, lexible employmen i is no
su p ising ha he la ges sha e o lexible labou is ound in coun ies wi h
he highes le el o employmen p o ec ion egula ion i.e. he Sou he n
coun ies like Spain, Po ugal, G eece and, o a lesse ex en , I aly. Rema k-
ably, hough, I eland also has a high le el o lexible employmen despi e a
low le el o employmen egula ion. Smalle bu s ill sizeable igu es a e
ound in he No he n coun ies, such as Denma k and Finland. Much smal-
le numbe s a e ound in Luxembou g.5 Coun ies like F ance, he Ne he -
lands and he Uni ed Kingdom, ha e sizeable le els o lexible employmen ,
which a e in be ween he numbe s o he Sou he n and he No he n Eu -
opean coun ies. Ne e heless, hey ha e a e age o low le els o employ-
men egula ion. The No he n coun ies, in common wi h some Sou he n
coun ies, sha e he ac ha 'casual wo k and o he a angemen s' a e
qui e la ge. In I aly and Po ugal hese wo job ypes accoun o 40% o all
lexible jobs and in G eece e en o 70%. In he Uni ed Kingdom and I e-
3 To es he eliabili y o his classi ica ion, he empi ical model o pa ial exclu-
sion in Sec ion 6 (see Table 6) has been es ima ed using coun y dummies ins ead o
'employmen egime' dummies. I eme ges ha he model including he employmen
egime dummies 'cap u es'
97 %
o he a iance o he model wi h coun y dummies.
4 The Ne he lands is included in he analyses al hough he Du ch da a do no con-
ain calenda in o ma ion on he employmen s a uses o e ime on a mon hly basis.
Howe e , using he in o ma ion on he numbe o mon hs people a e in pa icula s a-
uses i appea ed easible om hese 'coun da a' o cons uc he longi udinal em-
ploymen s a us a iable indica ing he numbe o mon hs people a e in employmen
o unemploymen o e he yea (by gi ing p ecedence o wo k o e unemploymen
and inac i i y).
5 Figu es o Luxembou g should be aken wi h cau ion because he numbe o ob-
se a ions is ex emely small.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
92 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
land i s sha e is abou 50% and in he Ne he lands 70% (pa icula ly em-
po a y agency and on-call con ac s). I eme ges ha , excep o Spain,
coun ies wi h la ge numbe s o a ypical jobs ha e la ge numbe s o hese
e y ' ypical' jobs like empo a y agency wo k, on-call con ac s, ze o-hou s
con ac s, labou pool jobs, eelance jobs, housewo k and he like. The wel-
a e s a e classi ica ion does no p o ide much added alue o he igu es
o he di e en coun ies. I appea s ha he libe al, social-democ a ic and
co po a is egime ypes a e e y simila in e ms o he ela i e size o he
lexible wo k o ce, whe eas we would expec he highes le el in co po a is
and social-democ a ic coun ies. The highes le els a e, indeed, ound in he
Sou he n egimes in which one in i e employees has a lexible job.
In Table 1 he igu es om he ECHP 1996 a e also compa ed wi h he La-
bou Fo ce Su ey (LFS) 1996 igu es.6 The pic u e ha comes ou o he
ECHP is no e y dissimila o he one ha comes ou o he LFS. A a he
b oad de ini ion o lexible labou is also used in he LFS, including em-
po a y jobs, empo a y agency wo k, casual wo k7 and he like. The LFS
igu es p o ide iden ical ankings excep o a ew coun ies whe e ema k-
able and unexpec ed di e ences occu , such as o I eland and G eece. The
coun ies showing he la ges di e ence acco ding o he LFS igu es a e
also coun ies wi h high sha es o 'casual jobs and o he a angemen s'. I
we lea e ou his lex-job ype, we ind ha he ECHP igu es a e gene ally
lowe han he LFS igu es. The e o e, i appea s ha he LFS includes
some, bu ce ainly no all, o he jobs being included in he 'casual jobs and
o he a angemen s' ca ego y wi hin he ECHP (see also Meulde s e al.,
1994; Bosch, 1995; Delsen, 1995).
Insecu e' Jobs
The numbe o wo ke s in non-s anda d employmen is one indica o o a
loose a achmen o he labou ma ke bu a a he s a ic one. Longi udinal
measu es o lexibili y o insecu i y a e p e e able bu he e he da a limi
he so o analyses ha can be conduc ed. Because o a lack o in o ma ion
on he ype o con ac in he i s wa e o he ECHP, i only appea ed possi-
ble o look a he changes ac oss he second and hi d wa es. In Table 2 he
ansi ions be ween he a ious wo king s a uses be ween 1995 and 1996
a e p esen ed.
6 The LFS igu es include all ypes o empo a y jobs like ixed e m con ac s,
empo a y agency wo k, casual wo k and on-call con ac s.
7 The e m casual wo k has been used in he ECHP ques ionnai e o e e o con-
ac s acco ding o which people a e hi ed by he hou o he day, wi h no p omise
abou omo ow o he nex week. In his sense 'casual wo k' is di e en om a
'sho - e m' con ac ha ing a ixed e m o one yea o less.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 99
ploy me i eco d compa ed o he o he coun ies because hey ha e less se-
cu e employmen bu also less insecu e employmen and mo e people ully
excluded om he labou ma ke . F om o he sou ces i is known ha he
Sou he n s a es a e cha ac e ised by s ong employmen egula ions
(OECD, 1999), less ac i e labou ma ke policies and high unemploymen
a es due o lowe economic g ow h a es. The numbe o people in employ-
men is gene ally lowe , as is employmen g ow h. This migh poin o a di -
e en ype o employmen egime.
Subsis ence secu i y is no a ained in Sou he n wel a e s a es by a gene -
ous wel a e sys em as in he social democ a ic egime, o in a highly lex-
ible, e icien ly ope a ing labou ma ke wi h low unemploymen a es, as
in he libe al egime, bu by a highly egula ed labou ma ke wi h employ-
men secu i y. Employmen secu i y seems o be a ained a he expense o a
less e icien ly ope a ing labou ma ke , because o which such a egime has
o accep high le els o unemploymen and inac i i y. The pic u e eme ging
om he wel a e s a e ype o classi ica ion is ha he Sou he n employ-
men egime appea s o be qui e dis inc om he con inen al co po a is
and social-democ a ic egimes in he No h. Howe e , he libe al egime
ype is ha dly dis inguishable om he con inen al co po a is one. The lib-
e al ype ce ainly has less employmen egula ion bu he sha e o empo -
a y employmen is subs an ial and la ge han one migh expec in a libe al
egime whe e he e is no need o a ain lexibili y h ough empo a y jobs,
since lexibili y is inna ely achie ed by a low le el o employmen p o ec-
ion and p e ailing i m p ac ices wi h espec o layo s and qui s in si ua-
ions o demand cu s.
The e idence ound he e, ha he numbe o people wi h a weak a ach-
men o he labou ma ke appea s lowe in he Sou he n coun ies, does
no mean ha he labou ma ke pe o ms be e . People need no s ay un-
employed o sho e pe iods in hese egimes no do hey ha e mo e
chances o escaping om p eca ious employmen . Due o he lowe eco-
nomic and employmen g ow h in he Sou he n coun ies he chances o
mo ing upwa ds on he job ladde in o pe manen jobs is likely o be smal-
le han in he o he Eu opean coun ies. To examine his issue u he , he
ansi ion p obabili ies o mo ing upwa ds o downwa ds on he job ladde
ac oss he a ious coun ies a e analysed.
To wha ex en he employmen egime is capable o gua an eeing ha
people mo e om pa ial o insecu e employmen in o secu e employmen
should be an impo an indica o o he labou ma ke pe o mance o wel-
a e s a es. The upsho o hese employmen egimes is o wha ex en hey
pe mi people in pa ial employmen o pa ial exclusion o escape om
hese p eca ious jobs and o mo e upwa ds in o be e , mo e secu e jobs.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54

100 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
The ansi ions ac oss he h ee yea s by egime clus e a e depic ed in
Table 5. In libe al, social-democ a ic and co po a is s a es people in ull,
secu e employmen in 1993 ha e sligh ly highe chances o emaining in
s able jobs in 1994 han hey ha e in Sou he n Eu ope. The indings show
ha in he Sou h mo e people in ull o secu e employmen a e likely o
mo e in o ull exclusion om he labou ma ke he ollowing yea (10%,
as opposed o 5-6%). Fu he mo e, pa ially employed and pa ially ex-
cluded people ha e much highe chances o escaping om uns able and
mo ing in o s able jobs in he libe al, co po a is and social-democ a ic
s a es han people ha e in he Sou he n egion. The Sou he n people wi h
pa ial o insecu e labou eco ds in 1993 ha e much lowe p obabili ies o
ge ing ou o ha si ua ion and mo ing in o secu e jobs. Abou 42% o
he people in insecu e jobs in he Sou h a e capable o mo ing upwa ds on
he job ladde in o s able jobs agains 60% in he libe al s a es, 52% in he
social-democ a ic coun ies and 46% in he co po a is coun ies ( he Eu -
opean a e age is 50%). Fu he , he p opo ion o people mo ing om pa -
ial employmen in o ull exclusion is s ill highe in Sou he n coun ies
han in he o he egions (34% in he Sou h agains 21% in he social-de-
moc a ic coun ies and 28% in he libe al and co po a is coun ies). The
conclusion mus be ha upwa d mobili y is lowe in Sou he n Eu ope and
downwa d mobili y highe . F om a e iew o he e idence on he labou
ma ke pe o mance o hese employmen egimes, i migh be concluded
ha he Sou he n egime is pe o ming wo se in e ms o enhancing job
mobili y and p e en ing labou ma ke exclusion. Wha he easons o
hese di e ences a e, apa om di e ences in employmen p o ec ion leg-
isla ion, is le o u he sc u iny.
In he nex sec ion, his issue is examined by es ima ing explana o y mod-
els o explaining why some people a e mo e likely o be wo k secu e
whe eas o he s a e mo e likely o be excluded om he labou ma ke . Two
ypes o models we e es ima ed, (1) a model which explo es he p obabili y
o belonging o any employmen s a us (as de ined on he 36 mon hs o ob-
se a ion) and (2) a ansi ion model explo ing he changes in 12-mon h em-
ploymen s a us be ween he i s and las yea .
De e minan s o Longi udinal Employmen S a us
Fi s we model he p obabili y o belonging o one o he longi udinal em-
ploymen s a us o he 36-mon h pe iod. Resul s a e gi en in Table 6. We
con end ha ha ing a pa icula s a us is likely o be no he esul o a an-
dom walk bu a ec ed by wha happened be o e he obse a ion da e. We
he e o e posi he exis ence o a selec ion e ec o which we need some
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 101
Table 6
Es ima ion esul s o he mul inomial model o explaining he belonging o he
longi udinal employmen s a us g oups, 1993-1995 (36 mon hs),
Be a coe icien s [ - alues] ( e e ence g oup: pa ial exclusion)
Fully employed / Pa ially employed / Fully Excluded
wo k secu e wo k insecu e
Male Re Re Re
Female -1.284 [12.63]*** -0.552 [9.30]*** 0.903 [7.99]***
Age 0.502 [32.86]*** 0.139 [5.62]*** -0.043 [1.37]
Age squa ed -0.006 [31.40]*** -0.002 [6.61]*** 0.001 [3.08]***
Low educa ion le el -0.219 [2.65]*** -0.063 [0.84] 0.059 [1.12]
A e age educa ion le el Re Re Re
High educa ion le el 0.396 [3.74]*** 0.418 [3.93]*** -0.672 [11.87]***
Numbe o child en -0.095 [2.16]** -0.037 [1.02] 0.136 [2.47]**
Household size -0.169 [4.40]*** -0.097 [3.70]*** 0.053 [2.05]**
Single Re Re Re
Couple no child -0.181 [0.75] -0.069 [0.36] -0.072 [0.59]
Couple wi h child( en) -0.502 [4.60]*** -0.351 [2.25]** 0.092 [0.57]
Lone pa en -0.258 [1.28] -0.458 [3.95]*** -0.105 [0.81]
O he -0.224 [1.37] 0.088 [0.56] -0.273 [1.75]*
Ne e ma ied Re Re Re
Ma ied 0.467 [4.27]*** 0.323 [3.10]*** -0.281 [2.00]**
Sepa a ed 0.672 [6.45]*** 0.382 [5.50]*** -0.351 [7.84]***
Widow(e ) 1.195 [3.59]*** 0.551 [3.72]*** -0.632 [3.71]***
Li e sa is ac ion 0.066 [5.99]*** 0.022 [3.00]*** 0.033 [2.09]**
Bad heal h -1.054 [5.88]*** -0.328 [2.82]*** 0.291 [2.74]***
Capi al income /1000 -0.024 [1.36] -0.031 [2.07]** -0.036 [1.52]
Social ans e income /1000 -0.390 [7.98]*** -0.127 [8.37]*** 0.081 [5.53]***
Unemploymen in pas 5 yea s -1.733 [9.61]*** 0.028 [0.32] -1.142 [8.56]***
Home owne 0.040 [0.41] 0.007 [0.09] -0.050 [0.61]
Libe al Re Re Re
Social democ a ic -0.332 [1.91]* -0.132 [1.74]* -0.235 [1.74]*
Co po a is -0.046 [0.81] 0.029 [0.86] -0.049 [0.36]
Sou he n -0.459 [3.34]*** -0.567 [5.50]*** 0.778 [4.30]***
Cons an -6.500 [16.10]*** -1.424 [3.04]*** -0.196 [0.27]
N = 77,856; Pseudo R2 = 0.2682)
*** signi ican a 1%; ** signi ican a 5%; * signi ican a 10%
-s a is ics and signi icance le els based on obus es ima e o a iance accoun ing o
clus e ing o obse a ions wi hin coun ies
1) Es ima ed model excludes Aus ia and Finland
2) The same model including coun y dummies ins ead o he wel a e egime ype gene a es a
Pseudo R2 equal o 0.274
Sou ce: Eu os a , ECHP 1994-1996, own calcula ions.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
102 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
co ec ion p ocedu e. The a iable p e ious unemploymen expe ience in
he pas i e yea s has he e o e been added o he model and we con end
ha i will a ec he likelihood o belonging o he wo k insecu e. This also,
a leas pa ly, allows us o con ol o business cycle di e ences ac oss
coun ies. The people ha ing an uns able wo k his o y in he 36 mon hs
p io o he in e iew in 1996 will be mo e likely o occupy an insecu e job
in 1996 han people wi h a s able wo k his o y. We also included a li e sa is-
ac ion sco e, since li e sa is ac ion is expec ed o be a leas pa ly he e-
sul o he cu en li ing si ua ion and pa ly he esul o wha happened in
he pas . The a iable is mean o cap u e pa o he selec ion e ec , hough
we could p esume ha he sa is ac ion sco e is a pe sonal ai and ha
holding a mo e posi i e a i ude owa ds li e p o ides be e chances in he
labou ma ke . The inclusion o age and age squa ed should measu e he la-
bou ma ke oppo uni ies by age as well as he declining labou o ce pa i-
cipa ion a highe ages. The human capi al a iables a e included o ake
accoun o he di e ences in labou ma ke oppo uni ies by educa ion le el
(Becke , 1964; Mince , 1993). Th ee dummies we e c ea ed o educa ion le-
el. The dummy o high educa ion e e s o people ha ing inished highe
oca ional o uni e si y aining. Low educa ed people a e people who ha e
no inished educa ion beyond p ima y school. The e e ence g oup consis s
o people ha ing inished all educa ion le els in be ween (a e age educa ion
le el). Fu he , we con end ha hese human capi al a iables play a ole in
he ou comes o he sea ch p ocess o a be e job. Ou conjec u e is ha
people no sa is ied wi h hei cu en job due o being in a empo a y o in-
secu e wo k con ac o being lowly paid, sea ch o a be e job. Be e
educa ed people a e mo e likely o be success ul in ge ing hei p e e ed
job. This hypo hesis ollows he well-known 'job sea ch' heo e ical ap-
p oach. In he i s gene a ion models o job sea ch only unemploymen o
wo k ansi ions we e conside ed bu in mo e ecen app oaches also on he
job-sea ch and job- o-job ansi ions a e included (e.g. Lipmann and
McCall, 1986; Mo ensen, 1986; Na end ana han and Nickell, 1986; Bu de
and Mo ensen, 1998).
The a iables le el o capi al and social ans e income a e inco po a ed
in he model o cap u e he 'incen i es- o-wo k' e ec . A numbe o s udies
ha e shown ha homeowne s display a lowe deg ee o mobili y on he la-
bou ma ke (Na end ana han and S ewa d , 1996; Oswald, 1996). Fo his
eason, we include a dummy o home owne ship. A dummy o pe sons e-
po ing ( e y) bad heal h is also included because i is belie ed ha hei
heal h p oblems migh impede labou ma ke pa icipa ion. We include
clus e ed coun y a iables o accoun o he e ec o di e ences in em-
ploymen policies o employmen egimes. The a iables a e measu ed a
he beginning o he obse a ion pe iod (wa e 1).
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 103
People wi h highe le els o educa ion and hose who a e ma ied ha e
highe chances o being ully o pa ially employed and lowe chances o
being ully excluded. The odds o being pa ially o ully employed a he
han pa ially excluded dec ease when he pe son's household has mo e chil-
d en o when he household li es in a coun y wi h a social democ a ic o
Sou he n employmen egime. In Sou he n egimes he likelihood o being
ully o pa ially employed is signi ican ly lowe han in Libe al egimes.
On he o he hand we ind ha people li ing in a Sou he n egime com-
pa ed o people in a Libe al egime ace a much highe ela i e isk o being
ully excluded. Bo h indings s ongly sugges he Sou he n egime o pe -
o m wo se in keeping employmen high compa ed o libe al egimes. Wo-
men ace a g ea e isk han men o being ully excluded, while olde wo k-
e s and people li ing in coun ies wi h a social democ a ic employmen e-
gime a e less likely o belong o he ully excluded compa ed o people li ing
in a Libe al egime. A be e li e sa is ac ion sco e a ou s being in secu e
employmen . The e ec o ha ing social secu i y income is ambiguous as i
signi ican ly educes he p obabili y o being wo k secu e (disincen i e e -
ec ) bu i also dec eases he p obabili y o ull exclusion.
T ansi ions in Longi udinal Employmen S a us
The use o he mon hly calenda in o ma ion pe mi s us o look a changes
in he longi udinal employmen s a us be ween he i s 12 mon hs o obse -
a ion a wa e 1 and he las 12 mon hs a wa e 3. In modelling he ansi-
ions om one longi udinal s a us in o ano he i is assumed ha he expla-
na o y model can by and la ge use he same so o a iables as in he p e-
ious model. Excep , we now ha e he possibili y o in oducing some mea-
su es o he changes in household o ma ion ac oss he yea s. The
mul inomial model is aimed a explaining he ansi ions in employmen
s a us. I he s a us a iable consis s o ou ca ego ies (secu e, insecu e,
pa ially excluded and ully excluded), 16 ypes o ansi ions can be dis in-
guished. Since ou in e es goes especially o ansi ions om pa ial exclu-
sion o any o he s a us, he se o s a uses o be conside ed can be limi ed
o h ee. The model9 has, hus, been es ima ed o h ee so s o ansi ion:
(1) a ansi ion om pa ial exclusion in o secu e employmen , (2) a ansi-
ion om pa ial exclusion in o insecu e employmen and hi dly a ansi-
ion om pa ial exclusion in o ull exclusion. The esul s o es ima ion a e
gi en in Table 7.
9 This ime we es ima ed a mul inomial model o he likelihood o making a an-
si ion be ween wa e 1 and wa e 3 (ins ead o belonging o a ce ain ca ego y as in he
p e ious c oss-sec ional model).
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
104 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
Table 7
Mul inomial model o ansi ions ou o pa ial employmen ,
Be a coe icien s [ - alues] ( e e ence g oup: s aye s PE—»PE)1*
PE—>FE PE —>PEX PE —>FEX
Male Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence
Female 0.058 [0.20] 0.239 [0.83] 0.558 [3.09]***
Age 0.011 [0.15] -0.050 [0.49] -0.239 [2.75]***
Age squa ed -0.000 [0.48] 0.000 [0.35] 0.004 [3.05]***
Low educa ion le el -0.070 [0.22] -0.062 [0.34] -0.198 [1.81]*
A e age educa ion le el Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence
High educa ion le el 0.813 [2.37]** 0.425 [1.53] -0.238 [0.71]
Numbe o child en -0.231 [1.29] -0.215 [0.99] -0.069 [0.48]
Household size -0.117 [1.63] -0.010 [0.11] 0.028 [0.31]
Single Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence
Couple no child 0.600 [0.65] 0.804 [1.13] 0.293 [0.56]
Couple wi h child( en) 0.282 [0.57] 0.466 [0.99] 0.293 [0.56]
Lone pa en 0.143 [0.28] 1.007 [1.38] 0.981 [1.49]
O he 0.839 [1.72]* 1.005 [1.82]* -0.299 [0.47]
Ne e ma ied Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence
Ma ied 0.590 [1.60] 0.381 [0.99] 0.045 [0.18]
Sepa a ed 0.495 [1.60] -0.182 [0.26] 0.136 [0.26]
Widow(e ) 2.818 [2.34]** 0.955 [0.65] 1.160 [0.80]
Li e sa is ac ion 0.025 [0.97] 0.019 [0.43] -0.010 [0.31]
Bad heal h -0.221 [0.83] -0.027 [0.13] 0.782 [5.22]***
Capi al income /1000 -0.189 [1.12] -0.285 [0.75] 0.037 [0.35]
Social ans e income /1000 -0.036 [1.44] 0.006 [0.32] 0.006 [0.22]
Job sea ch -1.032 [3.21]*** 0.002 [0.01] -0.163 [0.88]
Unemploymen in pas 5 yea s 0.183 [1.14] 0.408 [1.90]* -0.173 [0.84]
Home owne -0.320 [2.51]** -0.571 [2.53]** -0.180 [1.10]
Libe al Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence
Social democ a ic -0.829 [4.30]*** -0.623 [3.11]*** -0.620 [2.22]**
Co po a is -0.154 [0.41] -0.262 [2.07]** -0.074 [0.22]
Sou he n -1.315 [4.21]*** -1.134 [3.40]*** -0.218 [1.00]
Changes om wa el o wa e3
No change Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence
Ma ied 0.519 [1.03] 0.090 [0.21] 0.293 [0.57]
Sepa a ed -0.079 [0.10] 0.727 [1.17] 1.089 [1.98]**
Mo e child en -0.168 [0.44] -0.163 [0.47] 0.107 [0.34]
Less child en -0.542 [1.52] -0.712 [1.24] -0.642 [1.18]
Mo e adul s 0.575 [1.92]* 0.788 [1.67]* 0.321 [0.72]
Less adul s -0.070 [0.45] -0.088 [0.42] -0.208 [0.71]
Cons an 1.808 [1.44] 0.784 [0.49] 4.637 [3.18]***
N = 2,928, Pseudo R2 = 0.132
FE= ull employmen ; PE=pa ial employmen ; PEX=pa ial exclusion; FEX= ull exclusion
*** signi ican a 1%; ** signi ican a 5%; * signi ican a 10%
-s a is ics and signi icance le els based on obus es ima e o a iance accoun ing o
clus e ing o obse a ions wi hin coun ies
1) Es ima ed model excludes Aus ia and Finland
Sou ce: Eu os a , ECHP 1994,1996, own calcula ions.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54

Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 105
The models o explaining change gene ally ha e a lowe i han he
c oss-sec ional models. The e a e a ious easons o his: echnical ones
such as a low numbe o ansi ions, measu emen e o and a i ion bu
also mo e subs an ial ones such as lack o in o ma ion on he ime a ying
a iables ha migh explain he ansi ions om one longi udinal employ-
men s a us in o ano he . Fo he explana o y a iables, in o ma ion is
a ailable a he s a o he obse a ion pe iod bu no a he s a o he
ansi ion. Ne e heless, he model p esen ed he e shows a easonable good
i . The e e ence g oup is he g oup o pe sons no mo ing and s aying in
ma ginal employmen o pa ial exclusion.
The same kind o a iables appea impo an o explaining he ansi ion
om pa ial exclusion in o secu e employmen as in he model o pa ial
exclusion (Table 6). Age has a posi i e e ec and age squa ed a nega i e e -
ec .10 A high educa ion le el has he expec ed posi i e sign. A lowe educa-
ion le el diminishes he chances o making a ansi ion in o a secu e job
al hough he e ec is insigni ican . The same holds o he numbe o chil-
d en. The a iable, job sea ch, has -con a y o ou expec a ions- a nega i e
sign indica ing ha he mo e one sea ches, he less likely he/she is o ex-
pe ience a ansi ion in o a secu e job. Fu he inqui y in o he easons o
his is needed. I migh be ha people in insecu e jobs a e no sea ching o
a pe manen job bu p e e a non-s anda d job allowing hem o combine
wo king and ca ing du ies, which is less easible in a pe manen job, be-
cause o long wo king hou s.
The employmen egime a iables appea o ha e a s ong e ec on he
likelihood o a ansi ion. The ansi ion p obabili ies a e somewha lowe
in he social-democ a ic egime bu ma kedly lowe in he Sou he n egimes
compa ed o he libe al egime. Hence, he e is less mobili y ac oss employ-
men s a us in he Sou he n egimes, co obo a ing ou ea lie esul s. The
esul s o he o he ypes o ansi ion a e mo e o less simila excep ha
o he ansi ion in o ull exclusion he social-democ a ic egime seems o
pe o m bes compa ed o he libe al egime. Bu e en in he Sou he n e-
gime he likelihood o mo ing in o ull exclusion is signi ican ly lowe han
in he Libe al egime ype.
Fo he ansi ion om pa ial employmen in o insecu e employmen , he
unemploymen his o y and he inc ease in he numbe o adul s in he
household du ing he h ee yea s exe a posi i e signi ican e ec . Home
owne ship appea s o ha e a s ong nega i e e ec on he ansi ion in o in-
secu e employmen . This co obo a es he indings o o he s indica ing ha
home owne ship lowe s he mobili y on he labou ma ke .
10 The poin a he age cu e whe e he posi i e e ec o age eaches i s maximum
is 31 yea s o ansi ions om pa ial exclusion o ull- ime wo k and 37 yea s o
ansi ions om pa ial exclusion in o insecu e employmen .
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
106 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
Fo he ansi ion om pa ial employmen in o ull exclusion he signs o
he pe sonal a iables a e likely o be he e e se o he signs o he ansi-
ion in o ull employmen . Bu o educa ion le el, sepa a ion and job sea ch
he signs a e in an equal di ec ion. The lowe educa ed seem o ha e lowe
chances o mo ing in o ull exclusion han hose wi h a e age educa ion le-
el. People sea ching mo e, ha e lowe chances o mo e om ma ginal em-
ploymen in o ull exclusion bu he e ec is insigni ican . The indings o
he clus e ed coun y a iables show ha he chances o mo ing ou o he
labou o ce in o ull exclusion a e, as we expec ed be o ehand, lowe o
he social-democ a ic egime compa ed o he Libe al egime. The dummy
o people li ing in he Sou he n egime appea s insigni ican .
7. Conclusions and Discussion
Exis ing c oss-sec ional s a is ics showed clea ly ha he labou ma ke s
ac oss he a ious coun ies a e a he di e en in e ms o unemploymen
le els, ex en o egula ion, sha e o lexible labou , employmen g ow h
and sha e o he in o mal economy. The e o e, ou pu pose was o examine
whe he he use o longi udinal in o ma ion would change he compa a i e
pic u e subs an ially. Because o he sho leng h o he obse a ion pe iod,
pa icula ly in he smalle coun ies, qui e low numbe s o ansi ions in
e ms o longi udinal employmen s a us we e obse ed. Pa ly due o his
and heo e ical easons explained be o e, i was decided o clus e he coun-
ies in o he ou 'ideal- ypical' classi ica ion de i ed om Esping-Ande -
sen and o he s.
Looking a he igu es on lexible labou ac oss he a ious coun ies a
i s es was ob ained abou whe he he Sou he n coun ies should be con-
side ed a sepa a e wel a e s a e o employmen egime o should be consid-
e ed pa o he co po a is ype. I appea ed ha he sha e o lexible la-
bou is indeed e y much highe in he Sou he n coun ies. Nex , looking a
he dis ibu ion o employmen p o iles ac oss he egime ypes, i was
ound ha mobili y om pa ial exclusion and insecu e jobs in o secu e
and pe manen jobs is highe in he libe al and social-democ a ic coun ies
han in he Sou h. On he o he hand, pe manen employmen appea s o be
mo e s able in Sou he n egimes. The opposi e holds o lexible jobs being
mo e agile in he Sou h. Bo h esul s migh be due o he high le el o em-
ploymen p o ec ion egula ion in he Sou he n egion. The employmen op-
po uni ies in he Sou h o escape unemploymen a e gene ally ewe .
O e all, ema kable s abili y wi h espec o pe manen employmen was
obse ed. Mo e han 85% o he pe manen wo ke s emained in hei job
be ween 1993 and 1995. On he o he hand, he e is subs an ial mobili y be-
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 107
ween secu e and insecu e jobs. The image o a segmen ed labou ma ke
wi h secu e jobs on he one side and lexible, insecu e jobs on he o he is
a om eali y in ei he employmen egime. The close he a achmen o
he labou ma ke , he highe he income is o he a ious s a us g oups
compa ed o he people in secu e employmen . Nex , looking a ansi ions
om one longi udinal employmen p o ile in o ano he , con i ms ou p e-
ious esul s. Upwa d mobili y is highe in he libe al and social-demo-
c a ic coun ies and lowe in he Sou h. In addi ion, downwa d mobili y is
highe in he Sou h. The Sou he n egime is, he e o e, pe o ming wo se in
e ms o enhancing job mobili y and p e en ing labou ma ke exclusion.
Al hough we only had h ee wa es o analysing ansi ions ac oss he
a ious employmen egime ypes, he esul s so a epo ed in his pape
show ema kable di e ences ac oss he h ee dis inc 'ideal- ypes' o em-
ploymen egimes. The analyses ce ainly need longe ime-se ies o a i e
a conclusions ha a e mo e obus , bu he esul s a e su icien ly encou a-
ging o con inue wi h his dynamic app oach o es ing egime- ype di e -
ences using hese excellen panel su eys.
Re e ences
A s,
W.
/ Gelissen, J. (1999). Th ee wo lds o wel a e capi alism o mo e? In sea ch o
ideal- ypes and eal o ms. Wo king Pape , WORC/Tilbu g Uni e si y, 21 p.
Becke , G. (1964). Human capi al: a heo e ical and empi ical analysis, wi h special
e e ence o educa ion. New Yo k: Na ional Bu eau o Economic Resea ch.
Bonoli, G. (1997). 'Classi ying wel a e s a es: a wo dimension app oach. Jou nal o
Social Policy, ol. 26, no. 3, pp. 351-372.
Bosch, G. (1995). Flexibili y and wo k o ganisa ion: ollow up o Whi e Pape
G ow h, Compe i i eness, Employmen . Repo o Expe Wo king G oup. Luxem-
bou g: O ice o O icial Publica ions o he Eu opean Communi ies.
Bu de , K. /Mo ensen, D. (1998). Wage di e en ials, employe size, and unemploy-
men , In e na ional Economic Re iew, ol. 39, no 2, pp. 257-273.
Delsen, Lei, (1995). A ypical employmen : an in e na ional pe spec i e - Causes, con-
sequences and policy. G oningen: Wol e s Noo dho .
Esping-Ande sen, G. (1990). The h ee wo lds o wel a e capi alism. Ox o d: Poli y
P ess
- (1996). Wel a e s a es in ansi ion: na ional adap a ions in global economies. Lon-
don: Sage
- (1999). Social ounda ions o pos -indus ial economies. Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y
P ess.
Eu opean Commission (1999). Employmen in Eu ope 1998. B ussels: Eu opean Com-
mission, Di ec o a e V/A.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54
108 Ruud
J.
A. Mu els and Didie
J.
A. G. Foua ge
Fe e a, M. (1996). 'The 'Sou he n Model' o wel a e in social Eu ope'. Jou nal o Eu -
opean Social Policy, ol. 6, no. 1, pp. 17-37.
Goodin,
B./Headey, B./Mu els,
R./Di en, H. J. (1999). Th ee wo lds o wel a e ca-
pi alism in panel pe spec i e. Camb idge: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess.
Leib ied, S. (1992). 'Towa ds a Eu opean wel a e s a e? On in eg a ing po e y e-
gimes in o he Eu opean Communi y. In Social policy in a changing Eu ope (eds.
Fe ge, Z. and Kolbe g, J.). F ank u am Main: Campus Ve lag.
Lipmann, S. A JMcCall, J. J. (1976). 'The economics o job sea ch: A su ey'. Econom-
ic Inqui y, ol. 14, pp. 155-189.
Meulde s, D./ Plasman, O. & Plasman, R. (1994). A ypical employmen in he EC. Al-
de sho : Da mou h Publishing Company
Mince , J. (1993). S udies in Human Capi al. Alde sho : Elga Publishe s.
Mo ens en, D. T. (1986). 'Job sea ch and labo ma ke analysis', In Handbook o labo
economics ol. II (eds. Aschen el e , O. and Laya d, R.). Ams e dam: Else ie P ess.
Mu els, R. (2000). 'Mo ing ages and edges. A li ecycle pe spec i e on ageing and lex-
ibilisa ion'. Eu opean Jou nal, London, ol. 6, pp. 32.
Mu els, R./ S eijn, B. (1999). Flexible and pe manen jobs on he Du ch labou ma -
ke , empi ical analyses o labou ma ke lows and employmen s a uses using la-
bou o ce su eys and panel da a. AWSB Wo king Pape Se ies, 32 p.
Na end a han, W./Nickell, S. (1986). Es ima ing he pa ame e s o in e es in a job
sea ch model'. In, Unemploymen , sea ch and labou supply (eds. Blundell, R. and
Walke , I.). Camb idge: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess.
Na end ana han,
W.
/ S ewa , M. (1993). Modelling he p obabili y o lea ing unem-
ploymen . Compe ing isk models wi h lexible baseline-haza ds, Jou nal o he
Royal S a is ical Socie y, Se ies C, Applied S a is ics, 42 (1), pp. 63-83.
OECD (1999). Employmen Ou look 1999. Pa is: OECD
Oswald, A. J. (1996). A conjec u e on he explana ion o high unemploymen in he
indus ialised na ions. Pa I. Uni e si y o Wa wick Economic Resea ch pape s,
no. 475.
Ve ma, V./Russell, H./Nolan,
B./Mu els,
R./Foua ge, D./Fishe , K./Ge shuny, J.
(1999). Flexible labou and i s impac on ea nings and po e y. E idence om wa e
1 and wa e 2 o he ECHP. Ins i u e o Social and Economic Resea ch / Colches e :
Uni e si y o Essex.
Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54