Working Profiles and Employment Regimes in Europe

Mu els, Ruud J. A.; Foua ge, Didie J. A. G. A icle Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope Schmolle s Jah buch – Zei sch i ü Wi scha s- und Sozialwissenscha en. Jou nal o Applied Social Science S udies P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: Duncke & Humblo , Be lin Sugges ed Ci a ion: Mu els, Ruud J. A.; Foua ge, Didie J. A. G. (2002) : Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope, Schmolle s Jah buch – Zei sch i ü Wi scha s- und Sozialwissenscha en. Jou nal o Applied Social Science S udies, ISSN 1865-5742, Duncke & Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 122, Iss. 1, pp. 85-109, h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/292007 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. 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Foua ge Abs ac Fo a la ge po ion o socie y, wo king li e becomes a con inuing sequence o sho employmen and unemploymen spells. The aim o his empi ical pape using h ee wa es o he Eu opean Communi y Household Panel (1994-1996) is o acqui e a dee- pe insigh in o he lows on he labou ma ke and he ac o s ha migh be espon- sible o he g ea a ia ions in hese employmen pa e ns be ween indi iduals and households bo h wi hin and ac oss coun ies. The ocus will be especially on longi u- dinal pa e ns o employmen acco ding o he a achmen o he pe son o he labou ma ke in a gi en pe iod o ime. These longi udinal employmen pa e ns a e called wo king p o iles and i is claimed ha hese p o iles p o ide a be e insigh in o mode n labou ma ke s because o hei ocus on he dynamics o changes o employ- men and unemploymen s a us o e ime. We use an amended e sion o Esping-An- de sen's wel a e s a e ypology o es whe he longi udinal employmen pa e ns di - e ac oss hese egimes acco ding o he ypical ins i u ional se -ups o hei labou ma ke and social secu i y policies. We added a Sou he n egime ype because we ound ha he classi ica ion including such a egime ype pe o ms be e in explain- ing di e ences in longi udinal employmen pa e ns ac oss Eu ope han one wi hou i . Wi hin a job sea ch heo e ical amewo k we es ima ed some mul inomial logi models o es whe he indeed egime ypes ma e in explaining ansi ions in long- i udinal employmen s a uses o e ime. The esul s show ha egimes ma e and ha he Sou he n egime pe o ms ma kedly di e en compa ed o he o he h ee egime ypes. JEL-Classi ica ion: J 64, C 23 1. Wo king P o iles and Changing Concep s o Wo k1 The concep s o wo k a e changing. Li e- ime employmen , meaning wo king 40 hou s a week o 50 weeks a yea o e a 40-yea pe iod o en 1 The analyses in his pape we e ca ied ou as pa o a esea ch p ojec o he Eu opean Panel Analysis G oup (EPAG; h p://www.ise .essex.ac.uk/epag). Funding by he Eu opean Commission in he amewo k o he TSER p og am 'The Panel P o- jec ; Eu opean Panel Analysis' (SOE2.CT96.3023) is g ea ly acknowledged. We a e g a e ul o Richa d Be houd and wo anonymous e e ees o hei commen s. Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 86 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge wi h he same o a limi ed numbe o employe s, is losing g ound in a ou o mo e lexible and di e se pa e ns o li e- ime employmen . Eu opean economic and mone a y in eg a ion will gi e a u he impe us o he up- swing o he p ocess o inc easing mobili y and u no e on he labou ma - ke . The ise o a ypical wo k and non-s anda d con ac s e lec s he need o i ms o adap quickly o apidly changing ma ke condi ions. These ma ke changes a e eme ging pa icula ly om de elopmen s in in o ma ion and communica ion echnologies. The no ion o he ' lexible i m' implies ha he adap abili y o i ms as a as pe sonnel managemen is conce ned, is pa ly also es ablished by he c ea ion o co e and pe iphe al wo ke s seg- men s. The exis ence o hese wo segmen s does no necessa ily imply ha he e is no o li le mobili y be ween hem. On he con a y, o heo e ical as well as empi ical easons i migh be ue ha he mobili y wi hin and be ween he wo segmen s is a he high and, he e o e, o e all labou u n- o e migh e en ise. Images o segmen a ion and dynamics a e wo sides o he same coin. Some indi iduals wi hin he pe iphe al g oup o wo ke s migh mo e quickly in o pe manen jobs while o he s keep wande ing a ound in he lowe s a a o he labou ma ke . Bu nei he a e co e wo k- e s deemed o s ay in he same jobs; on he con a y 'job-hopping' migh be a be e s a egy o aise one's long- e m ca ee p ospec s o pe manen in- come han s aying wi h he same employe . Qui e a ew indi iduals belonging o he be e s a a o he labou ma ke migh expe ience apid mo es om one job o ano he ei he wi hin he i m o in he ex e nal labou ma ke . Whe he his is ac ually he case o all wo ke s migh be ques ionable, bu he image o a wo ld wi h la ge segmen- a ion and ha dly any mobili y is a om eali y. The concep o a ' ansi- ional labou ma ke ' migh gain impo ance in cu en labou ma ke s. This implies ha o a a he la ge po ion o socie y, wo king li e becomes a con inuing sequence o sho employmen and unemploymen spells. Li e- ime employmen wi h he same employe , al hough s ill he eali y o many wo ke s, will inc easingly be una ainable o many new en an s o he la- bou ma ke . This lea es aside he ac ha mode n wo ke s a e likely o be unwilling o s ay wi h he same i m o hei en i e ca ee due o changes in labou and leisu e p e e ences (Mu els, 2000). The aim o his pape is o acqui e a deepe insigh in o hese lows on he labou ma ke and he ac o s ha migh be esponsible o he g ea a ia- ions in hese employmen pa e ns be ween indi iduals and households bo h wi hin and ac oss coun ies. The ocus will be especially on pa e ns o pa ial employmen acco ding o he a achmen o he pe son o he labou ma ke in a gi en pe iod o ime. These employmen pa e ns a e called Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 87 wo king p o iles and i is claimed ha hese p o iles p o ide a be e insigh in o mode n labou ma ke s because o hei ocus on he dynamics o changes o employmen and unemploymen s a us o e ime. The a ach- men o he labou ma ke o e a ce ain ime and pa icula ly he leng h o he in e mi en pe iods o wi hd awal om he labou ma ke de e mine he ex en o which people a e in ull o pa ial employmen and he ewi h, whe he hey a e ully o pa ially included. Then, in a dynamic pe spec i e, labou ma ke exclusion e e s o longi- udinal employmen pa e ns o e ime wi h in e mi en pe iods o unem- ploymen , disabili y o , e en, ea ly e i emen . These in e mi en pe iods o wi hd awal cons i u e cases o exclusion only in so a as hese a e en o ced due o collec i e layo s, disabili y o e i emen . I hey a e he esul o ee will, as migh be ue o empo a y jobs o pa - ime employmen , i is no jus i ied o speak o exclusion because people p e e hese jobs o hei sho e wo king hou s o o ende ing mo e leisu e ime. Wi h inc easing age, in many cases a o ced e ea om he labou ma ke can be obse ed due o e i emen , edundancy o collec i e layo s. The e o e, labou ma - ke exclusion in e ms o en o ced idleness migh apply o he long- e m un- employed, hose seeking wo k bu no able o ge he job hey wan , he un- de employed who wo k less han hey wan and he disabled and senio wo ke s who a e no expec ed o wo k. Howe e , he e is li le in o ma ion in he da a o he Eu opean Communi y Household Panel abou whe he he exclusion is due o en o ced idleness o ee will and p e e ences o lei- su e.2 Especially o emale and olde wo ke s his neglec o he un o ced o o ced na u e o exclusion migh lead o an o e -es ima ion o he ex en o exclusion. The e is no much we can do he e excep o be cau ious abou d awing a - eaching conclusions on he ex en o labou ma ke exclusion. The e o e, when we use he e m 'exclusion' i is in an non-no ma i e, posi- i e sense, meaning ha he excluded do no ake pa in he labou ma ke , wi hou sugges ing ha i is en o ced idleness ha makes hem 'excluded'. Da a As employmen pa e ns a e a ec ed by he design o he ins i u ional se - ing in each coun y and by he p ocess o Eu opean in eg a ion, single coun y s udies and 'snap-sho ' compa isons will no su ice. The e o e, we decided o use he Eu opean Communi y Household Panel (ECHP) co e ing 2 The e is some in o ma ion on he numbe o hou s people wan o wo k o he e e ence week, he week jus be o e he da e o in e iew, bu no on he numbe o annual hou s people wan o wo k. Howe e , ha is he kind o in o ma ion needed i he idea is o use he mon hly calenda in o ma ion o de e mine longi udinal wo k p o iles. Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 88 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge all EU coun ies excep Sweden. The ECHP is an a emp o collec socio- economic in o ma ion on income, labou ma ke and demog aphic changes, applying common de ini ions, da a collec ion me hods and da a edi ing and cleaning p ocedu es. We used he i s h ee wa es om 1994 o 1996. Hence, he in o ma ion abou ansi ions on he labou ma ke cap u es 36 mon hs o obse a ion. A he Eu opean le el, h ee yea s seem su icien o obse e a subs an ial numbe o ansi ions om s eady jobs in o ma ginal employmen and ice e sa, and om one longi udinal employmen s a us in o he o he . Cu en ly, ou wa es o he ECHP ha e become a ailable co e ing he yea s 1994 o 1997. The ou -wa e da ase con ains in o ma ion on all EU coun ies including some Swedish da a. De ini ions o Longi udinal (Unemploymen Conside ing he ela i ely sho obse a ion pe iod in he mid-nine ies, i canno be uled ou ha he mobili y pa e ns we obse e a e in luenced by di e ences in he business cycle ac oss coun ies. A he ime o obse a- ion, howe e , all coun ies unde sc u iny we e in he same (upwa d) phase o he business cycle. The ocus in his pape is on longi udinal employmen and unemploymen pa e ns. The ECHP p o ides in o ma ion on he ac i i y s a us o he e- sponden o each mon h in he calenda yea p io o he in e iew da e. The ac i i y s a us a iable is hen ans e ed o a longi udinal ac i i y s a- us a iable called 'main s a us', i.e. he mos equen s a us obse ed on a mon hly basis o e he 36 mon hs o obse a ion. The equency o mon hly s a us, hen, de e mines whe he people a e employed, unemployed o inac- i e o e he 36-mon h pe iod (usual s a us). In addi ion o he 'usual s a- us', e e yone whose main s a us is 'no wo king' in a pa icula mon h has been ea ed as being unemployed. The e o e, in his app oach people a e conside ed inac i e only when hey we e no wo king du ing all o he 36- mon h pe iod, i.e. no wo king all o he ime. 2. Uni o Analysis The uni o analysis is he indi idual wi hin he household. The esea ch subjec in ol es he unemploymen p o ile o he pe son bu i is assumed ha his indi idual p o ile is a ec ed by he social and economic si ua ion o he household, which, in u n, means he labou ma ke and inancial si- ua ion o he indi idual household membe s. Implici ly, i is he ewi h as- sumed ha al hough indi idualisa ion pa e ns a e widesp ead, he house- Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 89 hold is s ill he economic uni wi hin which impo an decisions wi h e- spec o labou supply a e join ly made. In ou empi ical models, in o ma- ion on he household is, he e o e, included o ake accoun o he ole o he amily wi h ega d o employmen decisions. Only he adul s o wo king age a e conside ed in he analyses. Wo k insecu i y has been de ined as a weak a achmen o he labou ma - ke in a longi udinal sense (wo king less han 50% o he po en ial 36- mon h wo king pe iod). Because he obse a ion pe iod is a he sho , only sho wo k pa e ns can be obse ed. I he ime ho izon could be ex ended, wo king pa e ns migh change. To say ha i people a e wo king less han 50% o he po en ial wo king ime o e a h ee-yea pe iod hey a e wo k-insecu e does no imply ha hey conside hemsel es o be, o eel, wo k-insecu e. The subjec i e wo k- secu i y s a us also depends on hei p e e ences o wo k; i.e. he numbe o mon hs and hou s hey ac ually wan o wo k. In he ECHP he e is some in o ma ion on whe he people a e looking o a job and o how many hou s. I is no known how many mon hs du ing a yea hey eally wan o wo k and o wha easons hey wan o wo k less han he ull 12 mon hs. In u u e esea ch he issue o how hese labou supply a iables migh a - ec he ou comes o ou analyses will ce ainly be ackled. 3. Employmen Regimes and Flexible Labou Compa a i e esea ch in o he labou ma ke should ake accoun o he e idence ha s ocks and lows on he labou ma ke a e a ec ed no only by he demog aphic and economic si ua ion a he coun y le el bu also by c oss-na ional ins i u ional di e ences e lec ed in labou ma ke policies and social secu i y designs. Looking a he na ional se ings i appea s ha he e is g ea a ie y in goals, objec i es, ools, ins i u ions and policies. De- spi e his a ie y, he idea ha hese sys ems clus e one way o ano he in a limi ed se o wel a e and employmen egimes is well-known in he li e a- u e. These egimes ep esen di e en 'wo lds o wel a e capi alism' (Esp- ing-Ande sen, 1990, 1996, 1999), each being in e nally igh ly in eg a ed, and each being sha ply di e en ia ed om one ano he (Goodin e al., 1999). Each wel a e s a e is, o cou se, uniquely de ined by i s own logic in e ms o ins i u ional se -up, policy design, and unc ioning bu as sug- ges ed by Esping-Ande sen also clus e s a ound some dis inc 'ideal- ypi- cal' egime ype. His ypology was c i icised by au ho s like Leib ied (1992), Fe e a (1996) and Bonoli (1997) o his neglec o wha hey called a Sou he n o 'La in-Rim' model o he wel a e s a e. They a gued ha he Sou he n, Medi e anean coun ies belong o a di e en wel a e egime Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002)1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 90 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge ype wi h i s amilial cha ac e is ics and i s imma u e and selec i e social secu i y sys em g an ing poo bene i s and lacking a gua an eed minimum bene i sys em. Esping-Ande sen admi ed in his la e wo k (1996) ha he Sou he n coun ies sha e some Ca holic and amilial adi ions bu do no o m a speci ic ype o g oup o coun ies, bu we e me ely unde de eloped o ms o he adi ional Co po a is ype (A s and Gelissen, 1999). This issue will no be elabo a ed u he he e, since he da a limi a ions con ine us wi hin he le el o de ailed analysis. The ECHP da a co e ansi- ional da a o a pe iod o h ee yea s only and since a numbe o coun y samples a e small in size like Luxembou g, he Ne he lands, Belgium, G eece and I eland, he e is a lack o su icien ansi ions o conduc de- ailed analyses. Since he ECHP da a con ain in o ma ion on he Sou he n Eu opean coun ies, i is easible o es whe he he Sou he n labou ma - ke s show an essen ially dis inc pa e n. One could op o a egional classi- ica ion in o No he n, Cen al Eu opean and Sou he n Eu opean coun ies. Apa om he lack o heo e ical unde pinnings o such a dis inc ion, i s disad an age is also ha he UK, I eland and he No dic coun ies like Denma k and Finland would be classi ied unde he same heading. Acco d- ing o Esping-Ande sen's classi ica ion o libe al, conse a i e-co po a is and social-democ a ic coun ies (1990) he UK and I eland, as libe al wel- a e s a es in an 'ideal- ypical'sense, should be se apa om he No dic (Denma k and Finland; he ECHP does no con ain any in o ma ion on No - way o Sweden ye ) and con inen al social-democ a ic wel a e s a es (Ne h- e lands). The classi ica ion o I eland unde he libe al heading by Esping- Ande sen (1990, 1999) is, howe e , a he doub ul. Conside ing a ange o labou ma ke indica o s, i only sha es he libe al ea u e o a low le el o employmen p o ec ion egula ion. Looking a he o he labou ma ke indi- ca o s i seems o sha e he co po a is ea u e o an ac i e labou ma ke policy and he co po a is 'b eadwinne 's s a e' cha ac e is ic o a low e- male employmen a e. In e ms o amilial cha ac e is ics, i sha es he y- pical ea u es o a Sou he n wel a e s a e. I eland should, he e o e, be con- side ed as pa o a hyb id ype o wel a e s a e ha does no i in o any o he 'ideal- ypical' wel a e s a es. In o de o a oid he inclusion o I eland as he only example o a hyb id ype i was decided o keep i unde he same libe al heading as he UK and o es , using he h ee-wa e Eu opean panel-da a, whe he ha makes sense empi ically. Fo ha eason i was decided o use an amended e sion o Esping-Ande sen's classi ica ion. The UK and I eland emain unde he libe al heading, no wi hs anding ou e- se a ions o I eland, bu he Sou he n wel a e s a es a e se apa as a dis- inc egime (A s and Gelissen, 1999; Goodin e al., 1999). Coun ies like Ge many, Belgium, F ance, Aus ia and Luxembou g belong o a con inen- al co po a is ype o wel a e s a e and he Ne he lands and he No dic Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 91 wel a e egimes a e classi ied unde he social-democ a ic egime heading. The Sou he n egime clus e includes Spain, Po ugal, G eece and I aly.3 Since ou analyses in ol e he labou ma ke pe o mance o hese wel a e egimes, we will use he e m employmen egime ins ead o wel a e egime. 4. Tempo a y Employmen and Flexible Labou Con ac s The e is some e idence (Eu opean Commission, 1999; OECD, 1999) ha he Sou he n labou ma ke s a e indeed qui e di e en om he labou ma ke s in No he n and Cen al Eu ope in some espec s (employmen eg- ula ion, unemploymen le el, sha e o non-s anda d jobs o lexible labou , sha e o in o mal economy). This can be shown when he dis ibu ion o non-s anda d and empo a y employmen is looked a ac oss a numbe o Eu opean coun ies.4 In Table 1 he igu es on he dis ibu ion o empo a y, casual and o he ypes o non-s anda d employmen a e depic ed o 1996, he la es yea o which we ha e in o ma ion. Looking a he igu es o non-s anda d, lexible employmen i is no su p ising ha he la ges sha e o lexible labou is ound in coun ies wi h he highes le el o employmen p o ec ion egula ion i.e. he Sou he n coun ies like Spain, Po ugal, G eece and, o a lesse ex en , I aly. Rema k- ably, hough, I eland also has a high le el o lexible employmen despi e a low le el o employmen egula ion. Smalle bu s ill sizeable igu es a e ound in he No he n coun ies, such as Denma k and Finland. Much smal- le numbe s a e ound in Luxembou g.5 Coun ies like F ance, he Ne he - lands and he Uni ed Kingdom, ha e sizeable le els o lexible employmen , which a e in be ween he numbe s o he Sou he n and he No he n Eu - opean coun ies. Ne e heless, hey ha e a e age o low le els o employ- men egula ion. The No he n coun ies, in common wi h some Sou he n coun ies, sha e he ac ha 'casual wo k and o he a angemen s' a e qui e la ge. In I aly and Po ugal hese wo job ypes accoun o 40% o all lexible jobs and in G eece e en o 70%. In he Uni ed Kingdom and I e- 3 To es he eliabili y o his classi ica ion, he empi ical model o pa ial exclu- sion in Sec ion 6 (see Table 6) has been es ima ed using coun y dummies ins ead o 'employmen egime' dummies. I eme ges ha he model including he employmen egime dummies 'cap u es' 97 % o he a iance o he model wi h coun y dummies. 4 The Ne he lands is included in he analyses al hough he Du ch da a do no con- ain calenda in o ma ion on he employmen s a uses o e ime on a mon hly basis. Howe e , using he in o ma ion on he numbe o mon hs people a e in pa icula s a- uses i appea ed easible om hese 'coun da a' o cons uc he longi udinal em- ploymen s a us a iable indica ing he numbe o mon hs people a e in employmen o unemploymen o e he yea (by gi ing p ecedence o wo k o e unemploymen and inac i i y). 5 Figu es o Luxembou g should be aken wi h cau ion because he numbe o ob- se a ions is ex emely small. Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 92 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge land i s sha e is abou 50% and in he Ne he lands 70% (pa icula ly em- po a y agency and on-call con ac s). I eme ges ha , excep o Spain, coun ies wi h la ge numbe s o a ypical jobs ha e la ge numbe s o hese e y ' ypical' jobs like empo a y agency wo k, on-call con ac s, ze o-hou s con ac s, labou pool jobs, eelance jobs, housewo k and he like. The wel- a e s a e classi ica ion does no p o ide much added alue o he igu es o he di e en coun ies. I appea s ha he libe al, social-democ a ic and co po a is egime ypes a e e y simila in e ms o he ela i e size o he lexible wo k o ce, whe eas we would expec he highes le el in co po a is and social-democ a ic coun ies. The highes le els a e, indeed, ound in he Sou he n egimes in which one in i e employees has a lexible job. In Table 1 he igu es om he ECHP 1996 a e also compa ed wi h he La- bou Fo ce Su ey (LFS) 1996 igu es.6 The pic u e ha comes ou o he ECHP is no e y dissimila o he one ha comes ou o he LFS. A a he b oad de ini ion o lexible labou is also used in he LFS, including em- po a y jobs, empo a y agency wo k, casual wo k7 and he like. The LFS igu es p o ide iden ical ankings excep o a ew coun ies whe e ema k- able and unexpec ed di e ences occu , such as o I eland and G eece. The coun ies showing he la ges di e ence acco ding o he LFS igu es a e also coun ies wi h high sha es o 'casual jobs and o he a angemen s'. I we lea e ou his lex-job ype, we ind ha he ECHP igu es a e gene ally lowe han he LFS igu es. The e o e, i appea s ha he LFS includes some, bu ce ainly no all, o he jobs being included in he 'casual jobs and o he a angemen s' ca ego y wi hin he ECHP (see also Meulde s e al., 1994; Bosch, 1995; Delsen, 1995). Insecu e' Jobs The numbe o wo ke s in non-s anda d employmen is one indica o o a loose a achmen o he labou ma ke bu a a he s a ic one. Longi udinal measu es o lexibili y o insecu i y a e p e e able bu he e he da a limi he so o analyses ha can be conduc ed. Because o a lack o in o ma ion on he ype o con ac in he i s wa e o he ECHP, i only appea ed possi- ble o look a he changes ac oss he second and hi d wa es. In Table 2 he ansi ions be ween he a ious wo king s a uses be ween 1995 and 1996 a e p esen ed. 6 The LFS igu es include all ypes o empo a y jobs like ixed e m con ac s, empo a y agency wo k, casual wo k and on-call con ac s. 7 The e m casual wo k has been used in he ECHP ques ionnai e o e e o con- ac s acco ding o which people a e hi ed by he hou o he day, wi h no p omise abou omo ow o he nex week. In his sense 'casual wo k' is di e en om a 'sho - e m' con ac ha ing a ixed e m o one yea o less. Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 99 ploy me i eco d compa ed o he o he coun ies because hey ha e less se- cu e employmen bu also less insecu e employmen and mo e people ully excluded om he labou ma ke . F om o he sou ces i is known ha he Sou he n s a es a e cha ac e ised by s ong employmen egula ions (OECD, 1999), less ac i e labou ma ke policies and high unemploymen a es due o lowe economic g ow h a es. The numbe o people in employ- men is gene ally lowe , as is employmen g ow h. This migh poin o a di - e en ype o employmen egime. Subsis ence secu i y is no a ained in Sou he n wel a e s a es by a gene - ous wel a e sys em as in he social democ a ic egime, o in a highly lex- ible, e icien ly ope a ing labou ma ke wi h low unemploymen a es, as in he libe al egime, bu by a highly egula ed labou ma ke wi h employ- men secu i y. Employmen secu i y seems o be a ained a he expense o a less e icien ly ope a ing labou ma ke , because o which such a egime has o accep high le els o unemploymen and inac i i y. The pic u e eme ging om he wel a e s a e ype o classi ica ion is ha he Sou he n employ- men egime appea s o be qui e dis inc om he con inen al co po a is and social-democ a ic egimes in he No h. Howe e , he libe al egime ype is ha dly dis inguishable om he con inen al co po a is one. The lib- e al ype ce ainly has less employmen egula ion bu he sha e o empo - a y employmen is subs an ial and la ge han one migh expec in a libe al egime whe e he e is no need o a ain lexibili y h ough empo a y jobs, since lexibili y is inna ely achie ed by a low le el o employmen p o ec- ion and p e ailing i m p ac ices wi h espec o layo s and qui s in si ua- ions o demand cu s. The e idence ound he e, ha he numbe o people wi h a weak a ach- men o he labou ma ke appea s lowe in he Sou he n coun ies, does no mean ha he labou ma ke pe o ms be e . People need no s ay un- employed o sho e pe iods in hese egimes no do hey ha e mo e chances o escaping om p eca ious employmen . Due o he lowe eco- nomic and employmen g ow h in he Sou he n coun ies he chances o mo ing upwa ds on he job ladde in o pe manen jobs is likely o be smal- le han in he o he Eu opean coun ies. To examine his issue u he , he ansi ion p obabili ies o mo ing upwa ds o downwa ds on he job ladde ac oss he a ious coun ies a e analysed. To wha ex en he employmen egime is capable o gua an eeing ha people mo e om pa ial o insecu e employmen in o secu e employmen should be an impo an indica o o he labou ma ke pe o mance o wel- a e s a es. The upsho o hese employmen egimes is o wha ex en hey pe mi people in pa ial employmen o pa ial exclusion o escape om hese p eca ious jobs and o mo e upwa ds in o be e , mo e secu e jobs. Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 100 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge The ansi ions ac oss he h ee yea s by egime clus e a e depic ed in Table 5. In libe al, social-democ a ic and co po a is s a es people in ull, secu e employmen in 1993 ha e sligh ly highe chances o emaining in s able jobs in 1994 han hey ha e in Sou he n Eu ope. The indings show ha in he Sou h mo e people in ull o secu e employmen a e likely o mo e in o ull exclusion om he labou ma ke he ollowing yea (10%, as opposed o 5-6%). Fu he mo e, pa ially employed and pa ially ex- cluded people ha e much highe chances o escaping om uns able and mo ing in o s able jobs in he libe al, co po a is and social-democ a ic s a es han people ha e in he Sou he n egion. The Sou he n people wi h pa ial o insecu e labou eco ds in 1993 ha e much lowe p obabili ies o ge ing ou o ha si ua ion and mo ing in o secu e jobs. Abou 42% o he people in insecu e jobs in he Sou h a e capable o mo ing upwa ds on he job ladde in o s able jobs agains 60% in he libe al s a es, 52% in he social-democ a ic coun ies and 46% in he co po a is coun ies ( he Eu - opean a e age is 50%). Fu he , he p opo ion o people mo ing om pa - ial employmen in o ull exclusion is s ill highe in Sou he n coun ies han in he o he egions (34% in he Sou h agains 21% in he social-de- moc a ic coun ies and 28% in he libe al and co po a is coun ies). The conclusion mus be ha upwa d mobili y is lowe in Sou he n Eu ope and downwa d mobili y highe . F om a e iew o he e idence on he labou ma ke pe o mance o hese employmen egimes, i migh be concluded ha he Sou he n egime is pe o ming wo se in e ms o enhancing job mobili y and p e en ing labou ma ke exclusion. Wha he easons o hese di e ences a e, apa om di e ences in employmen p o ec ion leg- isla ion, is le o u he sc u iny. In he nex sec ion, his issue is examined by es ima ing explana o y mod- els o explaining why some people a e mo e likely o be wo k secu e whe eas o he s a e mo e likely o be excluded om he labou ma ke . Two ypes o models we e es ima ed, (1) a model which explo es he p obabili y o belonging o any employmen s a us (as de ined on he 36 mon hs o ob- se a ion) and (2) a ansi ion model explo ing he changes in 12-mon h em- ploymen s a us be ween he i s and las yea . De e minan s o Longi udinal Employmen S a us Fi s we model he p obabili y o belonging o one o he longi udinal em- ploymen s a us o he 36-mon h pe iod. Resul s a e gi en in Table 6. We con end ha ha ing a pa icula s a us is likely o be no he esul o a an- dom walk bu a ec ed by wha happened be o e he obse a ion da e. We he e o e posi he exis ence o a selec ion e ec o which we need some Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 101 Table 6 Es ima ion esul s o he mul inomial model o explaining he belonging o he longi udinal employmen s a us g oups, 1993-1995 (36 mon hs), Be a coe icien s [ - alues] ( e e ence g oup: pa ial exclusion) Fully employed / Pa ially employed / Fully Excluded wo k secu e wo k insecu e Male Re Re Re Female -1.284 [12.63]*** -0.552 [9.30]*** 0.903 [7.99]*** Age 0.502 [32.86]*** 0.139 [5.62]*** -0.043 [1.37] Age squa ed -0.006 [31.40]*** -0.002 [6.61]*** 0.001 [3.08]*** Low educa ion le el -0.219 [2.65]*** -0.063 [0.84] 0.059 [1.12] A e age educa ion le el Re Re Re High educa ion le el 0.396 [3.74]*** 0.418 [3.93]*** -0.672 [11.87]*** Numbe o child en -0.095 [2.16]** -0.037 [1.02] 0.136 [2.47]** Household size -0.169 [4.40]*** -0.097 [3.70]*** 0.053 [2.05]** Single Re Re Re Couple no child -0.181 [0.75] -0.069 [0.36] -0.072 [0.59] Couple wi h child( en) -0.502 [4.60]*** -0.351 [2.25]** 0.092 [0.57] Lone pa en -0.258 [1.28] -0.458 [3.95]*** -0.105 [0.81] O he -0.224 [1.37] 0.088 [0.56] -0.273 [1.75]* Ne e ma ied Re Re Re Ma ied 0.467 [4.27]*** 0.323 [3.10]*** -0.281 [2.00]** Sepa a ed 0.672 [6.45]*** 0.382 [5.50]*** -0.351 [7.84]*** Widow(e ) 1.195 [3.59]*** 0.551 [3.72]*** -0.632 [3.71]*** Li e sa is ac ion 0.066 [5.99]*** 0.022 [3.00]*** 0.033 [2.09]** Bad heal h -1.054 [5.88]*** -0.328 [2.82]*** 0.291 [2.74]*** Capi al income /1000 -0.024 [1.36] -0.031 [2.07]** -0.036 [1.52] Social ans e income /1000 -0.390 [7.98]*** -0.127 [8.37]*** 0.081 [5.53]*** Unemploymen in pas 5 yea s -1.733 [9.61]*** 0.028 [0.32] -1.142 [8.56]*** Home owne 0.040 [0.41] 0.007 [0.09] -0.050 [0.61] Libe al Re Re Re Social democ a ic -0.332 [1.91]* -0.132 [1.74]* -0.235 [1.74]* Co po a is -0.046 [0.81] 0.029 [0.86] -0.049 [0.36] Sou he n -0.459 [3.34]*** -0.567 [5.50]*** 0.778 [4.30]*** Cons an -6.500 [16.10]*** -1.424 [3.04]*** -0.196 [0.27] N = 77,856; Pseudo R2 = 0.2682) *** signi ican a 1%; ** signi ican a 5%; * signi ican a 10% -s a is ics and signi icance le els based on obus es ima e o a iance accoun ing o clus e ing o obse a ions wi hin coun ies 1) Es ima ed model excludes Aus ia and Finland 2) The same model including coun y dummies ins ead o he wel a e egime ype gene a es a Pseudo R2 equal o 0.274 Sou ce: Eu os a , ECHP 1994-1996, own calcula ions. Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 102 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge co ec ion p ocedu e. The a iable p e ious unemploymen expe ience in he pas i e yea s has he e o e been added o he model and we con end ha i will a ec he likelihood o belonging o he wo k insecu e. This also, a leas pa ly, allows us o con ol o business cycle di e ences ac oss coun ies. The people ha ing an uns able wo k his o y in he 36 mon hs p io o he in e iew in 1996 will be mo e likely o occupy an insecu e job in 1996 han people wi h a s able wo k his o y. We also included a li e sa is- ac ion sco e, since li e sa is ac ion is expec ed o be a leas pa ly he e- sul o he cu en li ing si ua ion and pa ly he esul o wha happened in he pas . The a iable is mean o cap u e pa o he selec ion e ec , hough we could p esume ha he sa is ac ion sco e is a pe sonal ai and ha holding a mo e posi i e a i ude owa ds li e p o ides be e chances in he labou ma ke . The inclusion o age and age squa ed should measu e he la- bou ma ke oppo uni ies by age as well as he declining labou o ce pa i- cipa ion a highe ages. The human capi al a iables a e included o ake accoun o he di e ences in labou ma ke oppo uni ies by educa ion le el (Becke , 1964; Mince , 1993). Th ee dummies we e c ea ed o educa ion le- el. The dummy o high educa ion e e s o people ha ing inished highe oca ional o uni e si y aining. Low educa ed people a e people who ha e no inished educa ion beyond p ima y school. The e e ence g oup consis s o people ha ing inished all educa ion le els in be ween (a e age educa ion le el). Fu he , we con end ha hese human capi al a iables play a ole in he ou comes o he sea ch p ocess o a be e job. Ou conjec u e is ha people no sa is ied wi h hei cu en job due o being in a empo a y o in- secu e wo k con ac o being lowly paid, sea ch o a be e job. Be e educa ed people a e mo e likely o be success ul in ge ing hei p e e ed job. This hypo hesis ollows he well-known 'job sea ch' heo e ical ap- p oach. In he i s gene a ion models o job sea ch only unemploymen o wo k ansi ions we e conside ed bu in mo e ecen app oaches also on he job-sea ch and job- o-job ansi ions a e included (e.g. Lipmann and McCall, 1986; Mo ensen, 1986; Na end ana han and Nickell, 1986; Bu de and Mo ensen, 1998). The a iables le el o capi al and social ans e income a e inco po a ed in he model o cap u e he 'incen i es- o-wo k' e ec . A numbe o s udies ha e shown ha homeowne s display a lowe deg ee o mobili y on he la- bou ma ke (Na end ana han and S ewa d , 1996; Oswald, 1996). Fo his eason, we include a dummy o home owne ship. A dummy o pe sons e- po ing ( e y) bad heal h is also included because i is belie ed ha hei heal h p oblems migh impede labou ma ke pa icipa ion. We include clus e ed coun y a iables o accoun o he e ec o di e ences in em- ploymen policies o employmen egimes. The a iables a e measu ed a he beginning o he obse a ion pe iod (wa e 1). Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 103 People wi h highe le els o educa ion and hose who a e ma ied ha e highe chances o being ully o pa ially employed and lowe chances o being ully excluded. The odds o being pa ially o ully employed a he han pa ially excluded dec ease when he pe son's household has mo e chil- d en o when he household li es in a coun y wi h a social democ a ic o Sou he n employmen egime. In Sou he n egimes he likelihood o being ully o pa ially employed is signi ican ly lowe han in Libe al egimes. On he o he hand we ind ha people li ing in a Sou he n egime com- pa ed o people in a Libe al egime ace a much highe ela i e isk o being ully excluded. Bo h indings s ongly sugges he Sou he n egime o pe - o m wo se in keeping employmen high compa ed o libe al egimes. Wo- men ace a g ea e isk han men o being ully excluded, while olde wo k- e s and people li ing in coun ies wi h a social democ a ic employmen e- gime a e less likely o belong o he ully excluded compa ed o people li ing in a Libe al egime. A be e li e sa is ac ion sco e a ou s being in secu e employmen . The e ec o ha ing social secu i y income is ambiguous as i signi ican ly educes he p obabili y o being wo k secu e (disincen i e e - ec ) bu i also dec eases he p obabili y o ull exclusion. T ansi ions in Longi udinal Employmen S a us The use o he mon hly calenda in o ma ion pe mi s us o look a changes in he longi udinal employmen s a us be ween he i s 12 mon hs o obse - a ion a wa e 1 and he las 12 mon hs a wa e 3. In modelling he ansi- ions om one longi udinal s a us in o ano he i is assumed ha he expla- na o y model can by and la ge use he same so o a iables as in he p e- ious model. Excep , we now ha e he possibili y o in oducing some mea- su es o he changes in household o ma ion ac oss he yea s. The mul inomial model is aimed a explaining he ansi ions in employmen s a us. I he s a us a iable consis s o ou ca ego ies (secu e, insecu e, pa ially excluded and ully excluded), 16 ypes o ansi ions can be dis in- guished. Since ou in e es goes especially o ansi ions om pa ial exclu- sion o any o he s a us, he se o s a uses o be conside ed can be limi ed o h ee. The model9 has, hus, been es ima ed o h ee so s o ansi ion: (1) a ansi ion om pa ial exclusion in o secu e employmen , (2) a ansi- ion om pa ial exclusion in o insecu e employmen and hi dly a ansi- ion om pa ial exclusion in o ull exclusion. The esul s o es ima ion a e gi en in Table 7. 9 This ime we es ima ed a mul inomial model o he likelihood o making a an- si ion be ween wa e 1 and wa e 3 (ins ead o belonging o a ce ain ca ego y as in he p e ious c oss-sec ional model). Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 104 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge Table 7 Mul inomial model o ansi ions ou o pa ial employmen , Be a coe icien s [ - alues] ( e e ence g oup: s aye s PE—»PE)1* PE—>FE PE —>PEX PE —>FEX Male Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence Female 0.058 [0.20] 0.239 [0.83] 0.558 [3.09]*** Age 0.011 [0.15] -0.050 [0.49] -0.239 [2.75]*** Age squa ed -0.000 [0.48] 0.000 [0.35] 0.004 [3.05]*** Low educa ion le el -0.070 [0.22] -0.062 [0.34] -0.198 [1.81]* A e age educa ion le el Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence High educa ion le el 0.813 [2.37]** 0.425 [1.53] -0.238 [0.71] Numbe o child en -0.231 [1.29] -0.215 [0.99] -0.069 [0.48] Household size -0.117 [1.63] -0.010 [0.11] 0.028 [0.31] Single Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence Couple no child 0.600 [0.65] 0.804 [1.13] 0.293 [0.56] Couple wi h child( en) 0.282 [0.57] 0.466 [0.99] 0.293 [0.56] Lone pa en 0.143 [0.28] 1.007 [1.38] 0.981 [1.49] O he 0.839 [1.72]* 1.005 [1.82]* -0.299 [0.47] Ne e ma ied Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence Ma ied 0.590 [1.60] 0.381 [0.99] 0.045 [0.18] Sepa a ed 0.495 [1.60] -0.182 [0.26] 0.136 [0.26] Widow(e ) 2.818 [2.34]** 0.955 [0.65] 1.160 [0.80] Li e sa is ac ion 0.025 [0.97] 0.019 [0.43] -0.010 [0.31] Bad heal h -0.221 [0.83] -0.027 [0.13] 0.782 [5.22]*** Capi al income /1000 -0.189 [1.12] -0.285 [0.75] 0.037 [0.35] Social ans e income /1000 -0.036 [1.44] 0.006 [0.32] 0.006 [0.22] Job sea ch -1.032 [3.21]*** 0.002 [0.01] -0.163 [0.88] Unemploymen in pas 5 yea s 0.183 [1.14] 0.408 [1.90]* -0.173 [0.84] Home owne -0.320 [2.51]** -0.571 [2.53]** -0.180 [1.10] Libe al Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence Social democ a ic -0.829 [4.30]*** -0.623 [3.11]*** -0.620 [2.22]** Co po a is -0.154 [0.41] -0.262 [2.07]** -0.074 [0.22] Sou he n -1.315 [4.21]*** -1.134 [3.40]*** -0.218 [1.00] Changes om wa el o wa e3 No change Re e ence Re e ence Re e ence Ma ied 0.519 [1.03] 0.090 [0.21] 0.293 [0.57] Sepa a ed -0.079 [0.10] 0.727 [1.17] 1.089 [1.98]** Mo e child en -0.168 [0.44] -0.163 [0.47] 0.107 [0.34] Less child en -0.542 [1.52] -0.712 [1.24] -0.642 [1.18] Mo e adul s 0.575 [1.92]* 0.788 [1.67]* 0.321 [0.72] Less adul s -0.070 [0.45] -0.088 [0.42] -0.208 [0.71] Cons an 1.808 [1.44] 0.784 [0.49] 4.637 [3.18]*** N = 2,928, Pseudo R2 = 0.132 FE= ull employmen ; PE=pa ial employmen ; PEX=pa ial exclusion; FEX= ull exclusion *** signi ican a 1%; ** signi ican a 5%; * signi ican a 10% -s a is ics and signi icance le els based on obus es ima e o a iance accoun ing o clus e ing o obse a ions wi hin coun ies 1) Es ima ed model excludes Aus ia and Finland Sou ce: Eu os a , ECHP 1994,1996, own calcula ions. Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 105 The models o explaining change gene ally ha e a lowe i han he c oss-sec ional models. The e a e a ious easons o his: echnical ones such as a low numbe o ansi ions, measu emen e o and a i ion bu also mo e subs an ial ones such as lack o in o ma ion on he ime a ying a iables ha migh explain he ansi ions om one longi udinal employ- men s a us in o ano he . Fo he explana o y a iables, in o ma ion is a ailable a he s a o he obse a ion pe iod bu no a he s a o he ansi ion. Ne e heless, he model p esen ed he e shows a easonable good i . The e e ence g oup is he g oup o pe sons no mo ing and s aying in ma ginal employmen o pa ial exclusion. The same kind o a iables appea impo an o explaining he ansi ion om pa ial exclusion in o secu e employmen as in he model o pa ial exclusion (Table 6). Age has a posi i e e ec and age squa ed a nega i e e - ec .10 A high educa ion le el has he expec ed posi i e sign. A lowe educa- ion le el diminishes he chances o making a ansi ion in o a secu e job al hough he e ec is insigni ican . The same holds o he numbe o chil- d en. The a iable, job sea ch, has -con a y o ou expec a ions- a nega i e sign indica ing ha he mo e one sea ches, he less likely he/she is o ex- pe ience a ansi ion in o a secu e job. Fu he inqui y in o he easons o his is needed. I migh be ha people in insecu e jobs a e no sea ching o a pe manen job bu p e e a non-s anda d job allowing hem o combine wo king and ca ing du ies, which is less easible in a pe manen job, be- cause o long wo king hou s. The employmen egime a iables appea o ha e a s ong e ec on he likelihood o a ansi ion. The ansi ion p obabili ies a e somewha lowe in he social-democ a ic egime bu ma kedly lowe in he Sou he n egimes compa ed o he libe al egime. Hence, he e is less mobili y ac oss employ- men s a us in he Sou he n egimes, co obo a ing ou ea lie esul s. The esul s o he o he ypes o ansi ion a e mo e o less simila excep ha o he ansi ion in o ull exclusion he social-democ a ic egime seems o pe o m bes compa ed o he libe al egime. Bu e en in he Sou he n e- gime he likelihood o mo ing in o ull exclusion is signi ican ly lowe han in he Libe al egime ype. Fo he ansi ion om pa ial employmen in o insecu e employmen , he unemploymen his o y and he inc ease in he numbe o adul s in he household du ing he h ee yea s exe a posi i e signi ican e ec . Home owne ship appea s o ha e a s ong nega i e e ec on he ansi ion in o in- secu e employmen . This co obo a es he indings o o he s indica ing ha home owne ship lowe s he mobili y on he labou ma ke . 10 The poin a he age cu e whe e he posi i e e ec o age eaches i s maximum is 31 yea s o ansi ions om pa ial exclusion o ull- ime wo k and 37 yea s o ansi ions om pa ial exclusion in o insecu e employmen . Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 106 Ruud J. A. Mu els and Didie J. A. G. Foua ge Fo he ansi ion om pa ial employmen in o ull exclusion he signs o he pe sonal a iables a e likely o be he e e se o he signs o he ansi- ion in o ull employmen . Bu o educa ion le el, sepa a ion and job sea ch he signs a e in an equal di ec ion. The lowe educa ed seem o ha e lowe chances o mo ing in o ull exclusion han hose wi h a e age educa ion le- el. People sea ching mo e, ha e lowe chances o mo e om ma ginal em- ploymen in o ull exclusion bu he e ec is insigni ican . The indings o he clus e ed coun y a iables show ha he chances o mo ing ou o he labou o ce in o ull exclusion a e, as we expec ed be o ehand, lowe o he social-democ a ic egime compa ed o he Libe al egime. The dummy o people li ing in he Sou he n egime appea s insigni ican . 7. Conclusions and Discussion Exis ing c oss-sec ional s a is ics showed clea ly ha he labou ma ke s ac oss he a ious coun ies a e a he di e en in e ms o unemploymen le els, ex en o egula ion, sha e o lexible labou , employmen g ow h and sha e o he in o mal economy. The e o e, ou pu pose was o examine whe he he use o longi udinal in o ma ion would change he compa a i e pic u e subs an ially. Because o he sho leng h o he obse a ion pe iod, pa icula ly in he smalle coun ies, qui e low numbe s o ansi ions in e ms o longi udinal employmen s a us we e obse ed. Pa ly due o his and heo e ical easons explained be o e, i was decided o clus e he coun- ies in o he ou 'ideal- ypical' classi ica ion de i ed om Esping-Ande - sen and o he s. Looking a he igu es on lexible labou ac oss he a ious coun ies a i s es was ob ained abou whe he he Sou he n coun ies should be con- side ed a sepa a e wel a e s a e o employmen egime o should be consid- e ed pa o he co po a is ype. I appea ed ha he sha e o lexible la- bou is indeed e y much highe in he Sou he n coun ies. Nex , looking a he dis ibu ion o employmen p o iles ac oss he egime ypes, i was ound ha mobili y om pa ial exclusion and insecu e jobs in o secu e and pe manen jobs is highe in he libe al and social-democ a ic coun ies han in he Sou h. On he o he hand, pe manen employmen appea s o be mo e s able in Sou he n egimes. The opposi e holds o lexible jobs being mo e agile in he Sou h. Bo h esul s migh be due o he high le el o em- ploymen p o ec ion egula ion in he Sou he n egion. The employmen op- po uni ies in he Sou h o escape unemploymen a e gene ally ewe . O e all, ema kable s abili y wi h espec o pe manen employmen was obse ed. Mo e han 85% o he pe manen wo ke s emained in hei job be ween 1993 and 1995. On he o he hand, he e is subs an ial mobili y be- Schmolle s Jah buch 122 (2002) 1 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/ DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.122.1.85 | Gene a ed on 2023-04-04 12:29:54 Wo king P o iles and Employmen Regimes in Eu ope 107 ween secu e and insecu e jobs. The image o a segmen ed labou ma ke wi h secu e jobs on he one side and lexible, insecu e jobs on he o he is a om eali y in ei he employmen egime. The close he a achmen o he labou ma ke , he highe he income is o he a ious s a us g oups compa ed o he people in secu e employmen . Nex , looking a ansi ions om one longi udinal employmen p o ile in o ano he , con i ms ou p e- ious esul s. Upwa d mobili y is highe in he libe al and social-demo- c a ic coun ies and lowe in he Sou h. In addi ion, downwa d mobili y is highe in he Sou h. The Sou he n egime is, he e o e, pe o ming wo se in e ms o enhancing job mobili y and p e en ing labou ma ke exclusion. Al hough we only had h ee wa es o analysing ansi ions ac oss he a ious employmen egime ypes, he esul s so a epo ed in his pape show ema kable di e ences ac oss he h ee dis inc 'ideal- ypes' o em- ploymen egimes. The analyses ce ainly need longe ime-se ies o a i e a conclusions ha a e mo e obus , bu he esul s a e su icien ly encou a- ging o con inue wi h his dynamic app oach o es ing egime- ype di e - ences using hese excellen panel su eys. Re e ences A s, W. / Gelissen, J. (1999). Th ee wo lds o wel a e capi alism o mo e? In sea ch o ideal- ypes and eal o ms. Wo king Pape , WORC/Tilbu g Uni e si y, 21 p. Becke , G. (1964). Human capi al: a heo e ical and empi ical analysis, wi h special e e ence o educa ion. 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