The impact of changes in the demographic structure of the national labour market on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine

Maidaniuk, Se hii
A icle
The impac o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e o he
na ional labou ma ke on mac oeconomic indica o s o
Uk aine
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
H yho ii Sko o oda Uni e si y in Pe eiasla
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Maidaniuk, Se hii (2024) : The impac o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e o
he na ional labou ma ke on mac oeconomic indica o s o Uk aine, Uni e si y Economic Bulle in,
ISSN 2414-3774, H yho ii Sko o oda Uni e si y in Pe eiasla , Pe eiasla , Uk aine, Vol. 19, Iss. 1, pp.
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h ps://doi.o g/10.69587/ueb/1.2024.08
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Uni e si y Economic Bulle inUni e si y Economic Bulle in
UDC 331.5
The impac o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e
o he na ional labou ma ke
on mac oeconomic indica o s o Uk aine
Se hii Maidaniuk*
PhD in Economics, Associa e P o esso
Odesa Mili a y Academy
65009, 10 Fon anska Do oha S ., Odesa, Uk aine
h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0003-1993-5837
Sugges ed Ci a ion:
Maidaniuk, S. (2024). The impac o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e o he na ional labou ma ke on mac oeconomic indica o s
o Uk aine. Uni e si y Economic Bulle in, 19(1), 8-16. doi: 10.69587/ueb/1.2024.08.
*Co esponding au ho
Abs ac . The ull-scale in asion o Uk aine by Russian oops on 24 Feb ua y 2022 led o signi ican changes in he
Uk ainian labou ma ke , which equi e a de ailed analysis and unde s anding o hei u he dynamics. The pu pose o
his pape is o ind ou how he changes in he demog aphic s uc u e o he na ional labou ma ke ha e a ec ed Uk aine’s
mac oeconomic indica o s. Using such me hods as s a is ical analysis, compa ison, syn hesis and o ecas ing, he s udy o
cu en demog aphic and economic indica o s was conduc ed. The s udy ob ained and analysed s a is ics on he o ced
displacemen o e ugees bo h wi hin Uk aine and ab oad, aking in o accoun age, gende , educa ion and o he demog aphic
indica o s– a leas 12 million Uk ainian ci izens we e eloca ed, 75% o whom a e able-bodied and mo e han hal o whom
ha e high p o essional quali ica ions. Sepa a ely, in o ma ion on young people and s uden s who con inue o s a s udying
ab oad was s udied and conclusions we e d awn on hei assimila ion in he new socie y and he likelihood o hei e u n o
Uk aine. In he p ocess o analysing he condi ions o he g ow h o unemploymen , he numbe o en e p ises ha ceased
ope a ions due o hos ili ies o empo a y occupa ion was calcula ed– bo h geog aphically, by egion, and by ype o owne ship.
I u ned ou ha in eas e n Uk aine, he numbe o closed business en i ies eaches 80%, and almos a hi d o indi idual
en ep eneu s ha e ceased hei ac i i ies. The s udy also o ecas s he condi ions o pos -wa econs uc ion o Uk aine,
aking in o accoun he a e o e u ning e ugees and he coun y’s p ospec s o joining he Eu opean Union. The p ac ical
signi icance o his s udy is o assess he impac o changes in he s uc u e o he labou ma ke on he Uk ainian economy.
The esul s may be use ul o go e nmen agencies ha a e al eady o mula ing a s a egy o Uk aine’s pos -wa eco e y
Keywo ds: mac oeconomic indica o s o Uk aine; g oss domes ic p oduc ; index o business ac i i y eco e y o Uk aine;
labou ma ke ; demog aphy
Copy igh © The Au ho (s). This is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he
C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License 4.0 (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/)
Vol. 19, No. 1,2024
Jou nal homepage: h ps://ue-bulle in.com.ua/en
Recei ed: 08.02.2024. Re ised: 19.04.2024. Accep ed: 28.06.2024
DOI: 10.69587/ueb/1.2024.08
INTRODUCTION
Since he beginning o he ull-scale mili a y in asion o
Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022, he li e o Uk ainian socie y
has changed adically. All sphe es o social and economic
li e ha e been nega i ely a ec ed by he wa waged agains
Uk aine– educa ion, cul u e, heal hca e, e e yday li e, e c.
The analysis o he na ional labou ma ke dese es spe-
cial a en ion, as i has su e ed he mos since he begin-
ning o he wa . A numbe o ac o s combined o cause
he Uk ainian human capi al ma ke o expe ience a de -
as a ing cumula i e e ec , including he o ced mig a ion
o millions o able-bodied ci izens, he mobilisa ion o men
and women o mili a y age o wa , and he ac ual des uc-
ion o businesses and damage o ag icul u al land whe e
people wo ked. Such changes could no lea e he coun y’s
economic de elopmen una ec ed– mac oeconomic in-
dica o s in 2022 and 2023 di e ed signi ican ly om he
plans ha had been calcula ed be o e he ou b eak o ull-
scale wa . In he cu en eali ies, i has become c ucial
o e iew and adjus Uk aine’s planned mac oeconomic
indica o s o make economic ac i i y p edic able, e en in
he ace o he c isis. A numbe o Uk ainian schola s ha e
de o ed hei esea ch o his issue.
Fo example, L. D obiazko(2023) analysed s uc u al
shi s in he occupa ional and quali ica ion employmen
o he Uk ainian popula ion and assessed he ans o ma-
ion o his ma ke . I was no ed ha a e he i s shock in
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in | Vol. 19, No. 1
Maidaniuk
9
human capi al and mac oeconomic indica o s. The pu -
pose o his s udy is o ind ou how he changes in he de-
mog aphic s uc u e o he Uk ainian labou ma ke ha e
a ec ed Uk aine’s mac oeconomic pe o mance.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
In he cou se o his s udy, he peculia i ies o he demo-
g aphic s uc u e in Uk aine du ing he ull-scale wa and
hei impac on he coun y’s economic de elopmen we e
conside ed. In pa icula , he me hod o s a is ical analysis
was used o analyse mig a ion p ocesses and he condi-
ions o you h ou low, and he me hod o compa ison was
used o compa e cu en indica o s wi h p e-wa s a is ics.
The indica o was he numbe o applican s in Uk aine,
and addi ional ac o s we e he o al numbe o people
egis e ed o ake he na ional mul i-subjec es and he
numbe o people willing o ake he es ab oad. To ob ain
objec i e da a on he losses o he na ional labou ma -
ke , he demog aphic composi ion o ci izens who we e
o ced o mig a e ab oad wi h he ou b eak o ull-scale
hos ili ies was conside ed– in e ms o gende , age, edu-
ca ion, e c. A sepa a e analysis was conduc ed o he plans
o o ced mig an s ega ding he desi e and condi ions o
e u ning o Uk aine.
The s udy also analysed he challenges aced by he na-
ional economy in he human capi al ma ke . The s uc u e
o employmen and unemploymen in he con ex o exis -
ing demog aphic changes by occupa ional g oups was also
in es iga ed. Since o icial unemploymen da a calcula ed
in acco dance wi h he In e na ional Labou O ganiza-
ion me hodology ha e no been published since Feb ua y
2022, expe opinions and he esul s o sociological su -
eys we e used o assess his indica o up o da e. The ma e-
ials used o his s udy included, in addi ion o he abo e,
ope a ional da a om he In o ma ion and Compu ing
Cen e o he Minis y o Social Policy o Uk aine(2024),
he annual NBU in la ion epo (2022), mon hly su eys
o en e p ises om he Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch
and Policy Consul ing(2023), and s a is ics om Solida i y
Fund PL in Uk aine(2024). As o he p ospec s o he
na ional labou ma ke , he s udy analysed he gene al eco-
nomic en i onmen and de i ed a business eco e y index
ha illus a es plans o es o e and expand he ac i i ies o
Uk ainian en e p ises. Sepa a ely, he index o changes in
he numbe o employees was p esen ed by mon h, s a ing
in May 2022 and ending in Janua y 2024.
Based on dispa a e in o ma ion om he Na ional
Ins i u e o Sociological Resea ch(2022) and o he open
sou ces, a holis ic pic u e o he impac o he wa on he
demog aphic si ua ion was o med by syn hesis, especially
in e ms o child p o ec ion and he p oblem o he o ced
emo al o Uk ainian child en o he agg esso coun y. A
he same ime, o icial s a is ics on he numbe o child en
bo n in Uk aine o e he pas ew yea s we e p o ided.
Also, using he me hod o economic o ecas ing, based on
he used s a is ical da a and expe opinions, he au ho
o ecas s and desc ibes op ions o u he de elopmen
ea ly 2022, when he labou ma ke li e ally oze, a g adu-
al adap a ion o he condi ions o wa began o ake place.
Howe e , acco ding o he au ho , he exis ing des uc-
i e p ocesses and he gene al unce ain y o he popu-
la ion in he u u e indica e he absence o sys emic ac-
o s o he s uc u al es uc u ing o he na ional labou
ma ke and he es o a ion o he demog aphic balance.
G.Chepu ko(2022), in u n, no es he he edi a y na u e
o he Uk ainian economic c isis, as he ull-scale in asion
began immedia ely a e he end o he acu e phase o he
COVID-19 pandemic. The only di e ence is ha o he
es o he wo ld, i was an oppo uni y o inally es o e
hei na ional economies and e u n o ull social li e,
while o Uk aine, one c isis immedia ely u ned in o an-
o he , e en mo e se e e and des uc i e one. Acco dingly,
i is c ucial o he Uk ainian labou ma ke o c ea e a
clea sys em o employmen p io i ies, including he ex-
po o se ices, simpli ica ion o ules common o all pa -
icipan s, and he p ese a ion and de elopmen o human
capi al. The imbalance o he labou ma ke in Uk aine
and he exis ing imbalances in supply and demand we e
highligh ed by Vasylye ae al.(2023). Among he mos
signi ican nega i e ac o s, he au ho s named obs acles o
he ee mo emen o labou , he loss o p oduc ion capa-
ci y due o he wa , and a gene al decline in li ing s and-
a ds. Measu es ha could imp o e he demog aphic s uc-
u e o he egions include he in oduc ion o special
you h employmen p og ammes, he c ea ion o condi-
ions o con inuous oca ional educa ion, and he in o-
duc ion o s a e s anda ds o ce ain p o essions.
Ano he dimension o he p oblem o changing de-
mog aphics is he inc ease in unemploymen . Many ep-
esen a i es o small and medium-sized businesses ha e
los hei usual ea ning oppo uni ies in he on line a ea
and a e o ced o look o new li elihoods. As no ed by
O.Noso a(2023), se ice sec o en ep eneu s su e om
he decline in he popula ion o ci ies and illages on he
con ac line. A.Rumian se e al.(2023) w o e abou he
decline in he le el o economic educa ion, which man-
i es s i sel in he aining o insu icien ly quali ied spe-
cialis s du ing he wa . Such g adua es canno mee he
exis ing demand e en in he na ional labou ma ke , no
o men ion he mo e demanding s anda ds o EU coun-
ies. This p oblem can be sol ed, acco ding o he au ho s,
wi h he help o mode n digi al echnologies, emo e ac-
cess o educa ion and, acco dingly, a g ea e co e age o
po en ial applican s. Z.Smu chak(2023) calls he cu en
demog aphic si ua ion in Uk aine e en mo e ca ego ical-
ly– “collapse” and con i ms he exis ence o a deep de-
mog aphic c isis and a numbe o acu e socio-economic
p oblems in he coun y. In he opinion, ega dless o
whe he o no o ced mig an s e u n a e he elec ion,
Uk aine will ace depopula ion.
Thus, demog aphic issues ha e become ex emely
acu e since he beginning o he ull-scale wa in Uk aine.
Howe e , ew schola s ha e conside ed he di ec ela-
ionship be ween he changing demog aphic s uc u e o
The impac o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e...
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in | Vol. 19, No. 1
10
o he demog aphic s uc u e o he labou ma ke in he
con ex o he in ol emen o o eign specialis s in he eco-
nomic eco e y o Uk aine.
RESULTS
The de e io a ion o he demog aphic s uc u e o he na-
ional labou ma ke has been obse ed since he ou b eak
o he wa in 2014 and he occupa ion o C imea and pa -
ial occupa ion o he eas e n Uk ainian egions. Howe e ,
since Feb ua y 2022, he si ua ion has signi ican ly wo se-
ned. Thus, Uk aine has expe ienced a signi ican ou low
o labou , which has no ye been obse ed in he coun y’s
mode n his o y. Acco ding o he O ice o he Uni ed Na-
ions High Commissione o Re ugees(2024), as o 15 Feb-
ua y 2024, mo e han 6million Uk ainians ha e mo ed o
Eu ope alone, and almos hal amillion mo e ha e mo ed
o o he coun ies. Adding o hese igu es almos 5mil-
lion mo e in e nally displaced pe sons, we can d aw a
conclusion abou he exis ing human esou ce po en ial o
Uk aine. Mo eo e , acco ding o a su ey conduc ed by he
O ice o he Uni ed Na ions High Commissione o Re u-
gees, o ced mig a ion p ocesses ha e had he g ea es im-
pac on he mos p oduc i e age g oups o he popula ion:
in Eas e n Eu ope, almos hal (47%) o e ugees a e aged
35-59, and a qua e (25%) a e aged 18-34.
In e ms o o he demog aphic indica o s, 85% o IDPs
a e women, almos hal (47%) ha e highe educa ion, and
20% ha e oca ional educa ion. Ob iously, he ou low o
such a la ge numbe o educa ed people o wo king age has
had a signi ican impac on he amoun o human capi al
in Uk aine. Howe e , he mos impo an demog aphic
h ea is he ou low o young people as ep esen a i es o
human capi al who a e a he s age o o ming hei social
en i onmen and habi s o «adul li e». Unlike hose aged
30+, child en and young people who ecei e a quali y edu-
ca ion in Eu ope, o m a social ci cle, lea n he language o
he hos coun y and ge used o high s anda ds o li ing
will ha e li le incen i e o e u n o pos -wa Uk aine. The
expe ience o he Yugosla wa s(1991-2001) shows ha
only abou hal o o ced mig an s e u n home a e he
wa , mos ly hose who could no ind a job and s opped
ecei ing social assis ance. In mos cases, he applica ion o
p og ammes o p o ide a mig an wi h a one- ime inancial
assis ance on condi ion o e u ning o hei home coun-
y esul s in he mig an ecei ing his money, lea ing o
hei home coun y, and hen e u ning o he coun y o
p o ec ion a e a sho pe iod o ime. Acco dingly, based
on his expe ience, i can be p edic ed ha he numbe o
e ugees who will e u n o Uk aine a e he end o he wa
will no exceed 50%.
Acco ding o he websi e o he Educa ional ombuds-
man o Uk aine(2022), in he i s academic yea o he
ull-scale wa , mo e han hal amillion Uk ainian child en
we e in eg a ed in o he school sys ems o EU coun ies.
Acco ding o a su ey o pa en s o such s uden s, 40% o
child en in 2022 s udied simul aneously in wo ins i u ions:
ull- ime in a o eign school and emo ely in a Uk ainian
school, ano he 35% s udied emo ely in Uk ainian schools,
and ano he 11% only in o eign schools. I is no ewo hy
ha only 40% o pa en s in 2022 had a clea in en ion o
e u n o Uk aine wi h hei child en a e he end o hos-
ili ies. This igu e will con inue o decline o e ime and
as he child’s socialisa ion in he new place deepens. These
isks also apply o s uden s who we e o ced o con inue
o s a hei s udies in Eu ope due o he ull-scale wa .
Acco ding o he Uk ainian Cen e o Educa ional Quali-
y Assessmen , while in 2021 he numbe o applican s in
Uk aine was 390,000, in he sp ing o 2022 he sys em eg-
is e ed only 229,000 applican s, a 40% dec ease. Ano he
indica o o he mig a ion o s uden you h– Repo on
he esul s o he na ional mul i-subjec es in 2022(2022).
Acco ding o his documen , among hose egis e ed o
ake he es in 2022, almos 14% (28,000 ou o 201,000)
o u u e s uden s ook i while in 23 Eu opean coun ies.
Ano he dange ac o should be aken in o accoun : de e-
loped coun ies a e in e es ed in inc easing hei own hu-
man capi al a he expense o dono s, and hus he isks o
skilled young people no e u ning a e comple ing hei
s udies ab oad a e inc easing signi ican ly.
In gene al, o conside he impac o changes in he
demog aphic s uc u e o he na ional labou ma ke on
Uk aine’s mac oeconomic indica o s, i is wo h ocusing
on h ee o hese indica o s: he numbe o en e p ises
ha we e o ced o cease ope a ions, he Uk ainian busi-
ness eco e y index, and he size o he g oss domes ic
p oduc . Since Feb ua y 2022, in addi ion o he b ain
d ain, Uk aine’s economy has been a ec ed by a signi-
ican educ ion in employmen . The empo a y occupa-
ion o he e i o ies in 2022-2024 and he expansion o
he wa zone led a la ge numbe o success ul and p o i a-
ble businesses o shu down comple ely o o signi ican ly
educe hei business ac i i ies and lay o employees. Ac-
co ding o he Labou Ma ke Obse a o y po al, a i h
o non-budge en e p ises closed in he second qua e o
2022. The close he egion was o he on line, he mo e
companies ceased ope a ions: 77% o en e p ises in Lu-
hansk egion closed in he second qua e o 2022, 56% in
Done sk egion, 51% in Khe son egion, 39% in Kha ki
egion, 30% in Zapo izhzhia egion, 28% in Mykolai e-
gion, 15% in Kyi egion, 14% in Che nihi egion, and
12% in Sumy egion. This led o he ac ha in Uk aine
as a whole, e en aking in o accoun en e p ises ha we e
eloca ed om hei egions o sa e a eas, he o al num-
be o employees in he non-budge sec o dec eased by
15% in 2022, and among employees o indi idual en e-
p eneu s, his igu e eached 28%.
To unde s and he s uc u e o he labou ma ke du-
ing he wa in mo e de ail, Solida i y Fund PL in Uk aine,
in coope a ion wi h he S a e Employmen Se ice o
Uk aine(2023), conduc ed a special su ey o Uk ainian
employe s. Acco ding o i s esul s, cu en ly, on a e age,
60% o he s a o an en e p ise, ega dless o i s size o
p o ile, a e p o essionals and skilled wo ke s. A diag am o
he su ey esul s is shown in Figu e1.
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in | Vol. 19, No. 1
Maidaniuk
11
labou ma ke du ing he wa . Simila conclusions can be
d awn om he analysis o unemploymen in 2022 and
2023. Since o icial s a is ics based on he ILO me hodol-
ogy ha e no been published since Feb ua y 2022, hese
indica o s can be calcula ed indi ec ly, based on soci-
ological su eys and quali ied expe opinions (Fig. 2).
Acco ding o he annual NBU in la ion epo  (2022),
in he i s yea o he ull-scale wa , he unemploymen
a e is likely o ha e exceeded 30%, which is ex emely
dis up i e o he na ional labou ma ke and has se ious
nega i e consequences (including delayed ones) o he
na ional economy. When s udying demog aphic changes
in Uk aine du ing he la ge-scale wa , i is also wo h con-
side ing ha since Feb ua y 2022, o icial in o ma ion on
bi hs and dea hs has also no been published o secu i y
easons. Howe e , a numbe o companies and p ojec s,
such as Openda abo (2024), analyse in o ma ion om
open sou ces and use i o gene a e s a is ical epo s and
ack he dynamics o changes in indica o s. These da a,
along wi h o icial epo s, a e shown in Figu e3.
Figu e 1. P o essional s uc u e
o he su eyed en e p ises, %
Sou ce: de eloped by he au ho based on da a om he S a e
Employmen Se ice o Uk aine(2023)
Figu e 2. Dynamics o changes in he unemploymen a e, %
Sou ce: de eloped by he au ho based on NBU in la ion epo (2022)
Figu e 3. Bi h a e in Uk aine by yea s, child en
Sou ce: de eloped by he au ho based on da a om he S a e
S a is ics Se ice o Uk aine(2022) and Openda abo (2024)
Figu e 4. Index o business ac i i y eco e y
Sou ce: de eloped by he au ho on he basis o mon hly epo s o
he Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch and Policy Consul ing(2023)
14
27
13
33
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Manage s P o essionals Employees Skilled
wo ke s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2 qua e
2019
4 qua e
2019
2 qua e
2020
4 qua e
2020
2 qua e
2021
4 qua e
2021
2 qua e
2022
4 qua e
2022
Acco ding o he employe s’ su ey, amid he la-
bou ma ke con ac ion caused by he hos ili ies, skilled
wo ke s we e in he highes demand, which indica es an
inc ease in he o e all p o essional le el o he Uk ainian
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
I we compa e he igu es o 2022 and 2023 ob ained
om open sou ces wi h he dynamics o he p e ious ew
yea s, we can no e a signi ican decline in he bi h a e,
which, s a egically, is also a nega i e ac o in e ms o
labou supply. To unde s and he o e all ends in he
na ional economy in he con ex o changes in demog a-
phic indica o s, i is also wo h analysing he dynamics o
business eco e y. Acco ding o he Mon hly En e p ise
Su ey o Decembe 2023 by he Ins i u e o Economic
Resea ch and Policy Consul ing (2023), s a ing in May
2023, he e has been a ce ain s abilisa ion o he ac i i y
eco e y index wi h a sligh upwa d end (Fig.4).
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
01.10.2022
01.11.2022
01.12.2022
01.01.2023
01.02.2023
01.03.2023
01.04.2023
01.05.2023
01.06.2023
01.07.2023
01.08.2023
01.09.2023
01.10.2023
01.11.2023
01.12.2023

The impac o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e...
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in | Vol. 19, No. 1
12
As can be seen om he in og aphic, he mos se e e
challenge o his mac oeconomic indica o in he ana-
lysed pe iod occu ed a he end o 2022 and beginning
o 2023, when he Index eached nega i e alues, bu as
o he end o 2023, he si ua ion le elled o . A he same
ime, only 13.2% o he su eyed businessmen, desc ibing
he cu en s a e o a ai s a hei company, indica ed a
de e io a ion in he si ua ion, 63.6% s a ed ha he si u-
a ion had imp o ed, and he sha e o hose who belie e
ha business ac i i y has no changed was 20.2% a he
end o he yea . T ansla ing he expec a ions o Uk aini-
an businessmen o he u u e in o he labou ma ke , he
s a is ics on changes in he numbe o employees will be
indica i e. Since s a is ics we e no p ocessed in he i s
mon hs o he ull-scale wa , he analysis was conduc ed
om May2022. The da a in Figu e5 shows ha he indi-
ca o s s abilised h oughou 2023 and demons a es ha
he su eyed manage s do no expec signi ican changes
in he numbe o employees in he i s mon hs o 2024.
The sha e o business owne s planning o inc ease s a in-
c eased om 2.8% o 5.1%, while 6.7% o en ep eneu s
p edic a educ ion in he numbe o employees (p e ious-
ly6%). All o his indica es a ela i e ixa ion o he ange
o labou ma ke indica o s, bu no a signi ican imp o e-
men o eco e y o he economy.
When alking abou he imbalance in he labou ma -
ke caused by demog aphic ac o s, i is impo an o ake
in o accoun no only he ac ual, cu en impac on he
economy, bu also he long- e m consequences. In his
con ex , he si ua ion wi h childhood p o ec ion is o u -
mos impo ance. The s a is ics on schoolchild en who
we e o ced o mig a e ab oad wi h hei pa en s and no
longe plan o e u n o Uk aine we e men ioned abo e. In
addi ion, he e a e a la ge numbe o child en who ha e e-
mained in he coun y bu ha e been subjec ed o psycho-
logical p essu e o e en physical iolence by he occupie s.
Fo mally, he igh o p o ec ion and ca e o child en a -
ec ed by a med con lic is de ined in A icles38 and 39
o he UN Con en ion on he Righ s o he Child(1989).
In pa icula , A icle39 o he Con en ion equi es S a es
Pa ies o ake all app op ia e measu es o p omo e he
physical and psychological eco e y and social in eg a-
ion o child ic ims o wa . Howe e , in p ac ice, child en
whose homes we e des oyed by he occupie s and whose
pa en s we e o en killed do no always ha e he oppo -
uni y o psychological eco e y. Mo eo e , wi h he u -
he de elopmen o he wa and egula enemy ai a acks
h oughou Uk aine, he psychological s a e o child en
a ec ed by he wa is de e io a ing. In he u u e, his will
ha e an impac on he quali y o human capi al, educa io-
nal and p o essional oppo uni ies o he “child en o wa ”.
The e is a sepa a e issue o depo a ion o Uk aini-
an child en o he occupying coun y, which is p ohibi -
ed by a numbe o con en ions. Acco ding o he Radio
Libe y websi e, he numbe o child en ac ually abduc ed
om Uk aine has al eady eached 700,000 (O e 700,000
Uk ainian...,2023). E en i all pe pe a o s o hese wa
c imes a e punished in he u u e, he p olonged psycho-
logical p essu e on child en in a hos ile en i onmen will
a ec hei pe sonal de elopmen in he u u e, which
will also call in o ques ion he abili y and willingness o
hese ci izens o e u n o Uk aine in he u u e. All o he
abo e ac o s o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e o
Uk aine ha e a signi ican impac on he na ional labou
ma ke , and, as can be seen, i is mos ly nega i e. Acco -
dingly, he cu en s a e o he economy– one o he mos
objec i e mac oeconomic indica o s, g oss domes ic p od-
uc (GDP)– is shown in Figu e6.
Figu e 5. Index o changes in he numbe o employees
Sou ce: de eloped by he au ho on he basis o mon hly epo s o
he Ins i u e o Economic Resea ch and Policy Consul ing(2023)
Figu e 6. GDP o Uk aine, billion USD
Sou ce: de eloped by he au ho based on da a om The Wo ld Bank(2022)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
-0
.6
-0
.5
-0
.4
-0
.3
-0
.2
-0
.1
0.0
01.05.2022
01.06.2022
01.07.2022
01.08.2022
01.09.2022
01.10.2022
01.11.2022
01.12.2022
01.01.2023
01.02.2023
01.03.2023
01.04.2023
01.05.2023
01.06.2023
01.07.2023
01.08.2023
01.09.2023
01.10.2023
01.11.2023
01.12.2023
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in | Vol. 19, No. 1
Maidaniuk
13
The g aph in Figu e 6 shows he key d ama ic changes
in he Uk ainian economy in ecen decades: g adual
g ow h om 2000 un il he global c isis in 2008; hen a new
s age o eco e y, which ended wi h he ou b eak o wa
and he empo a y occupa ion o pa o he coun y’s e -
i o ies in 2014; economic g ow h again, eaching a his o ic
GDP peak in 2021, ollowed by a new wa e o ex e nal ag-
g ession and, consequen ly, ano he economic down u n in
2022. Thus, i can be easonably concluded ha he demo-
g aphic imbalance ha is ine i able in a coun y a wa has
a signi ican impac on he labou ma ke , na ional human
capi al, and all economic indica o s wi hou excep ion. I
is no ewo hy ha he o ma ion o easonable plans and
o ecas s in such a si ua ion is ex emely di icul due o he
inabili y o p edic he end o hos ili ies.
Howe e , i is al eady possible o p edic ha when he
wa ends and Uk aine begins i s eco e y, he coun y will
ace a pe sonnel issue. Fo me mili a y pe sonnel e u ning
o hei p e-wa p o essions will need some ime o es o e
hei skills and mas e he echnological changes ha ha e
aken place du ing he wa . Many ci izens who ha e al eady
become accus omed o hei new places o esidence will
e use o e u n, and a la ge numbe o gues wo ke s and
labou mig an s om coun ies wi h p edominan ly low
economic le els and possibly di e en cul u al alues will
claim hei place. Mo eo e , some ci izens o he agg esso
coun y will also exp ess hei desi e o li e and wo k in
Uk aine. Acco dingly, he au ho i ies and public associa-
ions should al eady be shaping legisla ion and p epa ing
socie y o such de elopmen s in ad ance.
DISCUSSION
The impac o demog aphic changes caused by a ious
easons on he olume and quali y o human capi al is qui e
signi ican , as can be seen om he ma e ials o his s udy.
Unde s anding he cause-and-e ec ela ionship in his
a ea, i is possible o o mula e o ecas s o u he de e-
lopmen and manage he g ow h o he na ional econo-
my. A he same ime, Uk aine is a ce ain esea ch a ea
o obse ing a ious social and economic phenomena, as
mili a y ope a ions o his scale ha e no been seen on he
Eu opean con inen o eigh y yea s.
T. Boe i(2022), s udying he p ospec s o labou ma -
ke eco e y in Uk aine, belie es ha he wa , o all i s
agedy, is a good eason no only o ebuild, bu also o
adically e o ma he p inciples o human esou ce mana-
gemen . The au ho belie es ha when planning he pos -
wa econs uc ion o Uk aine, i is necessa y o ake in o
accoun all he men al and physical consequences ha will
a ec o me mili a y pe sonnel who will e u n o hei
ci ilian p o essions. A simila ision is p esen ed in his pa-
pe , since du ing he wa yea s almos all p o essional ields
ha e unde gone upda es and imp o emen s ha need o be
mas e ed by e e ans. Acco dingly, his will educe hei
compe i i eness in he labou ma ke o a ce ain pe iod.
P edic ing he impac o a ull-scale in asion, H.Kulue
al.(2022) in hei a icle in Ma ch 2022 p edic ed a 16%
educ ion in Uk aine’s popula ion and an inc ease in i s
a e age age. Emphasising ha he g ea es demog aphic
changes would a ec he wo king-age popula ion and chil-
d en, he au ho s we e con iden o signi ican human and
economic losses in Uk aine and long- e m nega i e demo-
g aphic consequences. The s a is ics abo e con i m his
assump ion, and he e a e no de ailed and comp ehensi e
p og ammes o he e u n o e ugees o hei homeland
a e he wa . The mos wo ying hing is ha he cu en
si ua ion will ine i ably lead o ano he demog aphic hole
in he nex gene a ion– in 20-25 yea s.
Р. S zeleckie al.(2022), in u n, s udied he o he side
o he low o o ced labou mig an s om Uk aine– i s im-
pac on he economies o ecipien coun ies. Using Poland
as an example, hey examined he si ua ion when an un-
p eceden ed low o highly skilled and educa ed labou mi-
g an s aced high demand o labou , which led o a apid
and powe ul posi i e e ec on he Polish economy. As
no ed abo e, p o essional placemen in a new loca ion is
a ac o ha educes he likelihood o a mig an ’s e u n
o hei home coun y, and his may ha e a nega i e im-
pac on he u u e eco e y o he Uk ainian economy. The
peculia i y o he demog aphic s uc u e o Uk ainian e-
ugees in Poland was also no ed by M.Duszczyk & R.Kacz-
ma czyk(2022). Acco ding o hei esea ch, he composi-
ion o mig an s di e s signi ican ly om p e ious wa es o
gues wo ke s in ha hey ha e a la ge numbe o child en,
which has an impac on hei mo he s’ wo k schedules.
Howe e , o e ime, his p oblem will become much less o
an issue as child en a e en olled in local kinde ga ens and
schools. Consequen ly, a e such in-dep h assimila ion, i
will be e en mo e di icul o e ugees o e u n o Uk aine.
The issue o he condi ions o e ugees o e u n o
Uk aine om Eu ope, which is aised in his pape , was
p e iously s udied by U.Dadush & R.Weil(2022). Ha -
ing analysed he s a is ics o olun a y e u n o e ugees o
hei poo coun ies, he au ho s conclude ha Uk ainian
emig a ion will b ing sho - e m cos s o Eu ope, bu long-
e m economic bene i s and ad ise mig a ion se ices o
show addi ional loyal y o wa ic ims. Howe e , i is wo h
no ing ha i a la ge numbe o skilled Uk ainian wo ke s
ecei e p e e ences ab oad and s ay he e, Uk aine’s eco-
e y om he wa will be complica ed. I is necessa y o
ealise ha in his ma e he e is a con lic o in e es be-
ween he Uk ainian s a e and iendly coun ies ha ha e
ag eed o shel e e ugees du ing he wa . How o esol e
his con lic wi hou complica ing ela ions wi h hem is a
u u e subjec o discussion wi h all s akeholde s.
The impac o wa - ela ed s ess on he socio-demo-
g aphic ac o s men ioned in his pape was s udied by
S. Fel e al. (2022). Acco ding o hei conclusions, one
o he p e en i e measu es agains he de elopmen o
pos - auma ic s ess is con inuing educa ion and ela ed
socialisa ion. Thus, imp o ing one’s p o essional le el in
c isis si ua ions is no only an economic bu also a psy-
chological ac o . A s udy o he psyche o Uk ainians in
he i s , mos di icul weeks o he ull-scale in asion was
The impac o changes in he demog aphic s uc u e...
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in | Vol. 19, No. 1
14
conduc ed by W.Xue al.(2022). The es s showed ha ou
o a sample o 800 adul Uk ainians, almos 53% showed
symp oms o psychological dis ess and 47% showed signs
o dep ession. Acco dingly, such la ge-scale men al changes
in ci izens ha e signi ican ly a ec ed he quali y o human
capi al and, ul ima ely, he demog aphic s uc u e o he
labou ma ke . As can be seen om he ma e ials o his
s udy, he p oblem is signi ican , bu wi h su icien sup-
po om he s a e, i can be sol ed.
V. Vus & I. Es e lis(2022), conside ing a plan o he
psychological eco e y o Uk ainian ci ilians a e a la ge-
scale in asion, belie ed ha his wa has a much g ea e
impac on demog aphic indica o s han any con lic in
p e ious decades. The au ho s no ed ha he mode n de-
eloped in o ma ion space ensu es he ins an aneous dis-
semina ion o in o ma ion, including nega i e in o ma-
ion, which a ec s he abili y o each indi idual o wo k
and he labou ma ke in gene al. Acco ding o he abo e
ma e ials and his s udy, almos all ci izens o Uk aine
ha e gone h ough se e al s ages o accep ance o he new
eali y, om despai o a alism. Since a la ge numbe o
in e nally displaced pe sons ha e no been able o o e -
come he psychological deadlock and ha e los he abili y
o engage in socially and economically use ul ac i i ies o
some ime, his has had nega i e consequences o he la-
bou ma ke in Uk aine as a whole.
The closed na u e o ce ain s a is ics in Uk aine and
he ways in which hey can be ob ained h ough he indi-
ec open sou ces men ioned abo e ha e been he subjec
o a s udy by D.Leasu ee al.(2023). Using da a om
social media, in pa icula Facebook, combined wi h p e-
wa da a, he esea che s buil a eal- ime moni o ing sys-
em ha allowed hem o ack he mo emen o people by
age and gende and, acco dingly, ex apola e conclusions
abou demog aphic changes o he na ional le el. Simila
calcula ions based on social media da a wi h simila e-
sul s we e also made by F.Rowee al.(2023). This expe-
ience o “bypassing” he blocking o o icial in o ma ion
can also be used by he enemy, so i is wo h conside ing
addi ional ways o ensu e he p o ec ion o demog aphic
da a du ing wa .
Pos -wa econs uc ion, wi hou which Uk aine’s con-
inued exis ence as a s a e is impossible, will be a se ious
challenge o Eu ope and he wo ld, as many hings ha e o
be c ea ed om sc a ch. The planning o he coun y’s e i -
al, which is he subjec o his pape , and he de elopmen
o algo i hms o ebuilding en i e economic sec o s a e
ac i ely discussed in he scien i ic communi y. Fo exam-
ple, J.G ä inghol e al.(2023) belie e ha Uk aine’s e-
cons uc ion is beginning now, e en be o e he end o
hos ili ies. By g an ing Uk aine he s a us o a candida e
o membe ship, he Eu opean Union has demons a ed o
he wo ld he p io i ies o u he join de elopmen . Fi-
nancial and echnological assis ance in econs uc ion can
gi e an addi ional impe us o he coun y’s “g een ans-
o ma ion” and achie emen o sus ainable de elopmen
goals. A well-known Swedish-Ame ican economis and
diploma , a leading in e na ional expe on na ional eco-
nomies o he o me USSR, A. Åslund(2023), in his a i-
cle on he econs uc ion o pos -wa Uk aine, emphasises
he impo ance o inancing such wo k and p edic s ha
he labou ma ke will lou ish o he poin whe e i will
equi e specialis s in all sec o s.
When planning he eco e y o he labou ma ke in
Uk aine and he e u n o mac oeconomic indica o s a
leas o p e-wa le els, i is e y impo an o ake in o ac-
coun he speci ics o he na ional ag o-indus ial complex
(AIC) and he wo king condi ions o i s employees. S. on
C amon-Taubadel and O.Ni ie skyi(2023) es ima e ha
as o au umn 2022, he o al losses om he wa in Uk ai-
nian ag icul u e eached almos USD 42billion. Since he
ull es o a ion o Uk ainian ag icul u al land is possible
only a e comple e demining and eclama ion, his should
be aken in o accoun when planning he iming o he
no malisa ion o he demog aphic s uc u e o he ag icul-
u al labou ma ke .
CONCLUSIONS
The si ua ion in which Uk aine and i s economy ound
hemsel es a he end o Feb ua y 2022 was close o c i i-
cal. The will o he ci izens, he A med Fo ces o Uk aine
and he assis ance o pa ne coun ies helped he coun-
y o su i e he i s , mos di icul mon hs and p e en
he des uc ion o i s s a ehood. Howe e , he demog aphic
s uc u e o Uk aine’s labou ma ke was a ec ed by ex-
emely powe ul nega i e ac o s. Mo e han 6.5million
people we e o ced o go ab oad, and abou 5million mo e
los hei homes and jobs and became in e nally displaced.
A he same ime, 75% o mig an s o Eu opean coun ies
a e able-bodied indi iduals, hal o whom ha e highe edu-
ca ion, which means ha hei skilled labou s eng hens
he mac oeconomic pe o mance o he ecipien coun ies,
no Uk aine. O pa icula conce n is he la ge numbe o
child en and young people who a e o ced o adap o new
li ing and educa ional condi ions du ing o ced mig a ion.
The s udy easonably leads o he conclusion ha chang-
es in he demog aphic s uc u e o he na ional labou ma -
ke ha e a ec ed Uk aine’s mac oeconomic indica o s as
ollows: he numbe o en e p ises ha we e o ced o cease
ope a ions– 15-30%; Uk aine’s business ac i i y eco e y
index– 0.5 (as o 01.12.2023); GDP– USD 160.5billion (as
o 2022). Rega ding he economic ea u es o he pos -wa
eco e y and he immedia e p ospec s, i should be aken
in o accoun ha , i s ly, as men ioned abo e, abou 50%
o e ugees will no longe e u n o Uk aine, and, secondly,
expe s p edic Uk aine’s accession o he EU in 2029-2033.
As a esul , Uk ainian ci izens will ha e he oppo uni y o
mo e eely wi hin he EU and be legally employed, which
will also ha e a signi ican impac on bo h demog aphics
and he coun y’s economy.
When o mula ing plans o pos -wa eco e y, i is
also e y impo an o ake in o accoun he signi ican in-
low o o eign labou mig an s who will pa icipa e in he
coun y’s eco e y and he ac ha mos wo ke s who will
Uni e si y Economic Bulle in | Vol. 19, No. 1
Maidaniuk
15
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in echopen.com/online- i s /88554.
[17] O ice o he Uni ed Na ions High Commissione o Re ugees. (2024). Uk aine e ugee si ua ion. Re ie ed om
h ps://da a.unhc .o g/en/si ua ions/uk aine.
[18] Openda abo . (2024). The bi h a e in Uk aine has allen by 28% since he beginning o he G ea Wa . Re ie ed om
h ps://openda abo .ua/analy ics/bi h-c isis-2023.
[19] O e 700,000 Uk ainian child en aken o ussia– L i -Belo a. (2023). Re ie ed om h ps://www. adios oboda.
o g/a/news- osija-ponad-700- ysyach-uk ajinskyh-di ej-l o a-belo a/32527463.h ml.
[20] Repo on he esul s o he na ional mul i-subjec es in 2022. (2022). Re ie ed om h ps:// es po al.go .ua//wp-
con en /uploads/2023/02/Z i _NMT_2022_na-saj .pd .
[21] Rowe, F., Ne ille, R., & González-Leona do, M. (2023). Sensing popula ion displacemen om Uk aine using
Facebook da a: Iden i ying po en ial se lemen a eas wi hin hos coun ies. Re ie ed om h ps://os .io/p ep in s/
os /5ag8s.
[22] Rumian se , A., Pobochenko, L., Pichku o a, Z., Tolpezhniko a, T., Ko bych, T., & Lyasho , D. (2022). The impac o
global digi aliza ion on he Uk ainian labo ma ke de elopmen . Academic Jou nal, 5(46), 334-348. doi:10.55643/
cap p.5.46.2022.3854.
en e Uk aine unde s a e p og ammes o a ac immi-
g an s will see Uk aine solely as a “sp ingboa d” o Eu ope
o he Uni ed S a es. In addi ion o whi e-colla wo ke s
om de eloped coun ies, his wa e will ine i ably include
he as majo i y o low-skilled wo ke s om de eloping
coun ies, who will b ing hei own habi s and cul u al
codes o Uk ainian socie y. Acco dingly, i is necessa y o
hink in ad ance abou p og ammes o assimila ing his
human capi al in o he Uk ainian labou ma ke so as no
o u he dis up he demog aphic s uc u e. The de e-
lopmen o heses o such ules o coexis ence could be he
subjec o a u u e s udy.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
None.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
None.