Hinojosa Pé ez, J. Adol o; B iceño Á alos, He nán Rica do; Va gas Salaza , I onne
Yane e; Ca asco Mamani, Se gio Ch is ian
A icle
Social p og ams and socioeconomic a iables: Thei
impac on Pe u ian egional po e y (2013-2022)
Economies
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Yane e; Ca asco Mamani, Se gio Ch is ian (2024) : Social p og ams and socioeconomic a iables:
Thei impac on Pe u ian egional po e y (2013-2022), Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel,
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Ci a ion: Hinojosa Pé ez, J. Adol o,
He nán Rica do B iceño A alos,
I onne Yane e Va gas Salaza , and
Se gio Ch is ian Ca asco Mamani.
2024. Social P og ams and
Socioeconomic Va iables: Thei
Impac on Pe u ian Regional Po e y
(2013–2022). Economies 12: 197.
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies
12080197
Academic Edi o s: Camelia
Teodo escu, Ana-I ina Lequeux-Dincă
and Flo en ina-C is ina Me ciu
Recei ed: 13 Ap il 2024
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economies
A icle
Social P og ams and Socioeconomic Va iables: Thei Impac on
Pe u ian Regional Po e y (2013–2022)
J. Adol o Hinojosa Pé ez 1,* , He nán Rica do B iceño A alos 1, I onne Yane e Va gas Salaza 1and
Se gio Ch is ian Ca asco Mamani 2
1
Depa amen o de Economía, Facul ad de Ciencias Económicas, Uni e sidad Nacional Mayo de San Ma cos,
Lima 15081, Pe u; [email p o ec ed] (H.R.B.A.); i a [email p o ec ed] (I.Y.V.S.)
2Escuela de Economía, Facul ad de Ciencias de la Emp esa, Uni e sidad Con inen al, Huancayo 12000, Pe u;
[email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : The aim o his esea ch is o es ablish he ex en o which social p og ams and socioe-
conomic a iables ha e been in luencing po e y in he 24 Pe u egions (2013–2022). The s udy is
quan i a i e, non-expe imen al, and co ela ional. We use seconda y da a ob ained om o icial
sou ces such as he Na ional Ins i u e o S a is ics and In o ma ics, Minis y o Economy and Finance,
as well as he Pe u ian Ins i u e o Economics. Fo es ima ions, we use he Gene alized Me hod o
Momen s Sys em and dynamic panel da a. The esul s indica e ha Jun os, Pensión 65, Qali Wa ma,
and T abaja Pe úsocial p og ams, wi h p- alues o 0.383, 0.715, 0.681, and 0.870, espec i ely, ha e
no had a o able impac s on educing po e y. On he con a y, nega i e coe icien s o human
capi al and physical in as uc u e mean ha imp o ing hem will educe po e y a he egional
le el. A yea mo e in schooling o he popula ion aged o e 15 yea s educes po e y be ween 1.7%
and 1.2%. Inc easing 10% o he p opo ion o na ional oads in pa ed condi ion educes po e y
le els be ween 1.9% and 2.4%.
Keywo ds: social p og ams; in as uc u e; pa ed oads; human capi al; po e y; economic and
social de elopmen ; dynamic panel da a
1. In oduc ion
Since he implemen a ion o social p og ams, hey ha e been con o e sial, epi omized
by he amous ph ase “gi ing ish o eaching o ish”. Gene ally, social p og ams a e
accused o pe pe ua ing he icious cycle o po e y among as sec o s o he popula ion
ins ead o p omo ing en ep eneu ship and s imula ing indi idual ini ia i e and pe sonal
de elopmen . Con e sely, o he pe spec i es a gue ha hese p og ams do no pe pe ua e
he po e y cycle; hey se e as empo a y p o ec ion mechanisms o he less p i ileged
social sec o s, agains he highes income inequali ies gene a ed by impe ec ly compe i i e
ma ke s. In ecen decades, social p og ams ha e become he main ins umen s o public
policy o igh agains po e y and ex eme po e y wo ldwide. This is e iden in he
“2000 Millennium Goals”, endo sed by 189 na ions unde he Uni ed Na ions (UN) “The
Membe S a es o he UN commi o educing ex eme po e y mani es a ions: hunge ,
disease, gende inequali y, lack o educa ion, and access o basic in as uc u e” (UN 2022a,
pa a. 1). Simila ly, in 2015, all UN membe s a es app o ed he 2030 Agenda o Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals (SDGs), calling o “uni e sal ac ion o end po e y, p o ec he plane ,
and imp o e he li es and p ospec s o people e e ywhe e” (UN 2022b, pa a. 1).
In his con ex , he Pe u ian go e nmen , since he ea ly 1990s, has been s eng hening
and expanding social p og ams, c ea ing mo e han hi y o add ess social inequi ies.
Cu en ly, he Minis y o Economy and Finance (MEF 2022) di ides social p og ams
in o hose by hei na u e, such as he Uni e sal P og am and he Ta ge ed P og am; i
also classi ies hem by hei geog aphic loca ion, as hey a e applied a he na ional o
Economies 2024,12, 197. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12080197 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies
Economies 2024,12, 197 2 o 19
dis ic le el. Finally, hey a e sepa a ed by hei bene i s, i.e., whe he hey a e indi idual
o collec i e.
Acco ding o he Na ional Ins i u e o S a is ics and In o ma ion (INEI 2022a,2022b),
be ween 2011 and 2021, he budge execu ed by he Gene al Go e nmen o p og ams o
educe po e y, ex eme po e y, and social inclusion p og ams s eadily inc eased. While
in 2011, he o al amoun alloca ed o hese p og ams was S/ 7655 million, in 2021, his
amoun had inc eased o S/ 17,126 million, ep esen ing an inc ease o mo e han 123.7%
in jus a decade. Howe e , o e all, social p og ams accoun ed o 8% o he o al na ional
budge o 2021.
In his sense, ou gene al p oblem o esea ch is o wha ex en ha e social p og ams
and socioeconomic a iables in luenced he e olu ion o egional po e y le els in Pe u
(2013–2022)? Ou objec i e is o de e mine how hese p og ams and a iables ha e in-
luenced he e olu ion o egional po e y. Finally, he gene al hypo hesis is as ollows:
Social p og ams ha e posi i ely in luenced he e olu ion o egional po e y. These issues
ha e no been s udied p o oundly. Mos o he ime, go e nmen s w ongly belie ed ha
inc easing social p og ams would educe po e y.
This esea ch is s uc u ed as ollows. In he nex sec ion, we e iew some au ho s’ li -
e a u e who ha e wo ked on hese po e y- ela ed opics and spli i in o h ee subsec ions.
In he Sec ion 3, he me hodology o his wo king pape and he heo e ical amewo k a e
de eloped o applying he econome ic model, also we assess he da a o ou empi ical
analysis. In he Sec ion 4, we e alua e he explana o y a iables beha io on po e y and
con as he main s a is ical esul s unde econome ic GMMS models. In he ollowing
sec ion, we discuss ou econome ic esul s compa ed wi h o he esea ch esul s. Finally,
his wo king pape includes conclusions, ecommenda ions o educe po e y a es, and,
na u ally, some limi s in ou esea ch.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
2.1. Social P og ams
Quispe Quispe (2017) assessed he impac o social p og ams on educing mone a y
and ex eme mone a y po e y (2009–2015). Du and Gonzales (2021), using a quan i a i e
me hodology, analyzes he impac o social p og ams on child malnu i ion in Pe u. Public
spending on social p og ams is signi ican ly ela ed o ch onic child malnu i ion, as 1%
budge inc eases o social p og ams educed he malnu i ion a e by 0.07% du ing he
s udy pe iod. Rahme e al. (2022) analyzed he causal ela ionships be ween cash ans e s
and po e y in Ca agena de Indias using Bayesian au o eg essi e ec o s, concluding ha
he e ec s o amily subsidies on mone a y income a e almos null.
Rega ding he analysis o ou social p og ams. The Na ional P og am o Di ec Sup-
po o he Poo es (JUNTOS) implemen ed by 2005, is a condi ional cash ans e p og am
aimed a educing po e y in he coun y by s imula ing he demand o heal h and educa-
ion se ices, o e ing 200 soles e e y wo mon hs o bo h u al and u ban popula ions
(MIDIS 2022). Maco (2022) highligh s disc epancies wi hin he Minis y o De elopmen
and Social Inclusion (MIDIS). Mos expe s belie ed ha social policy could no sol e
u al po e y, sugges ing ha his p og am’s de iciencies a ec he a ge popula ion in
u al a eas.
Pensión 65 p o ides S/ 250 bi-mon hly mone a y ans e o indi iduals aged 65
and o e who a e in ex eme po e y due o high le els o labo in o mali y, wi h non-
con ibu o y pension p og ams aiming o add ess he su i al issues o indi iduals who
could no gene a e a pension und due o emaining in in o mali y. O co Díaz e al. (2020),
ci ing s udies commissioned by he MEF abou he Pensión 65 e ec s, a gued ha hei
impac s we e posi i e on se e al le els, such as he ac ha 4% o olde adul s s opped
wo king a e being admi ed o his p og am. Addi ionally, households wi h a leas one
p og am bene icia y inc eased hei consump ion by 40%, and he le el o psychological
dep ession among he a ge popula ion dec eased by 9%. O co o Pe u ian case e eals
ha being a bene icia y o his p og am inc eases he likelihood o no being poo by 0.10597
Economies 2024,12, 197 3 o 19
compa ed o hose who a e no bene icia ies o he p og am. Also, li ing in u ban a eas
educes he p obabili y o being poo by 0.19433 compa ed o hose li ing in u al a eas.
Ri e a Med ano (2023), a mic oeconomic s udy, esea ches he impac o he Pensión 65 on
he well-being o use s in Chupaca (Junín), inding a non-di ec co ela ion be ween he
e ec i eness o his p og am and he quali y o li e. This sugges s ha he p og am had
nei he posi i e no nega i e impac s, meaning i did no al e he quali y o popula ion li e.
The Qali Wa ma was implemen ed by MIDIS since 2012, eplacing he Na ional Food
Assis ance P og am (PRONAA), aimed a p o iding daily ood o child en in all public
schools. This p og am ecei es he la ges budge om he Na ional T easu y in 2021,
abou S/ 1777 million. I has he pa icula i y o ope a ing unde a “co-managemen ”
pa e n; i in ol es he pa icipa ion o he bene icia y popula ion, such as pa en s, who a e
di ec ly engaged in he managemen o he p og am ha bene i s hei child en. F ancke
and Acos a (2021) e ealed no impac s o his p og am on educing anemia and ch onic
child malnu i ion, child en ecei ed much mo e i on and p o ein con en a home han in
schools. Ci ing La ado and Ba ón(2019), hey ound ha Qali Wa ma con ibu ed only
16.7% o hei i on in ake and ha 93% o bene icia ies ecei ed an i on in ake lowe han
expec ed. Ayala Beas (2022) s a ed ha he school eeding ecei ed by child en h ough
his p og am has no signi ican e ec on imp o ing lea ning in eading comp ehension
o ma hema ics. The au ho ques ions he e ec i eness and e iciency o his p og am o
child en’s lea ning.
T abaja Pe ú(Lu awi Pe ú) was implemen ed in 2011, wi h he aim o add essing
employmen issues by c ea ing empo a y inclusi e social employmen o unde employed
and unemployed people, bo h in u al and u ban a eas, po e y, and ex eme po e y a eas.
This p og am ecei ed S/ 74 million in 2021 and S/ 390 million in 2020. Conside ing ha
he Pe u ian p oblem is no so much unemploymen as unde employmen , p eca ious
employmen a ec ed almos 80% o he EAP. B iceño A alos (2017) indica es ha du ing he
pe iod 2009–2014, he p oduc –employmen elas ici y luc ua ed only be ween 0.211 and
0.263, e lec ing he high in o mali y in he labo ma ke . Tumi (2015), a a mac o-e alua ion
o his p og am, e eals ha his p og am con ibu ed signi ican ly and inc easingly o
he c ea ion and p omo ion o employmen o he a ge popula ion in u al and u ban
a eas, ha ing gene a ed, acco ding o he au ho , in he pe iod 2011–2014, 122,148 jobs wi h
a o al o 2700 p ojec s, including i e de enses, oads, sani a ion, and i iga ion in as-
uc u e, wi h a o al in es men o app oxima ely S/ 364 million, mos o he bene icia ies
we e women.
Chung Ve ga a (2022) a he mic o le el a gues o San Juan Bau is a (Lo e o), he e
is a posi i e ela ionship be ween T abaja Pe úand he quali y o popula ion li e, inding
a coe icien o 0.744 wi h a (bila e al) signi icance o 0.000 p- alue. In u n, i coincides
wi h Ma ínez (2018), o he case o Ama ilis (Huánuco), in which he au ho inds a 0.966
co ela ion and a ze o p- alue. This means ha he e is a a o able ela ionship bew een
he T abaja Pe úand he quali y o li e. All o which con i ms ha his p og am has been
a o able o igh agains unde employmen and unemploymen a he mac o and mic o
le els. On he o he hand, when analyzing he i s a iable, namely unemploymen and
i s ela ionship wi h po e y, he link be ween bo h has been a cen al conce n in he ield
o economics, so his s udy aims o explain he dynamics be ween unemploymen and
po e y, o he lack o i .
2.2. Socioeconomic Va iables
Acco ding o Ka nani (2009), gene a ing s able employmen oppo uni ies wi h ea-
sonable wages is he bes way o li people ou o po e y. This equi es wo majo e o s:
c ea ing jobs and inc easing employabili y. Sánchez To es (2020), he ela ionship be ween
po e y and he labo ma ke in de eloping coun ies is close when analyzing low labo
incomes and he quali y o employmen . Fo Colombia, his au ho dis inguishes ha
po e y is mainly associa ed wi h in o mal jobs; labo o maliza ion policy would ha e
signi ican e ec s on imp o ing incomes and educing po e y. Speci ically, o malizing
Economies 2024,12, 197 4 o 19
wo ke s would educe he numbe o poo people abou 40%. The e o e, imp o ing la-
bo ma ke condi ions ( educing in o mali y) would ha e a signi ican e ec on educing
po e y and would also con ibu e o be e income edis ibu ion. Finally, Cas illo and
Hua ancca (2023) buil a mul idimensional po e y indica o o assess he Pe u ian po e y
ajec o y (2007–2020) and indica e ha elimina ing p eca ious employmen could dec ease
he incidence o mul idimensional po e y by 10.4%.
Rega ding human capi al, i s in es men and de elopmen a e also essen ial o
po e y educ ion because hey enhance economic g ow h h ough hei e ec on o al
ac o p oduc i i y, in addi ion o ha ing posi i e e ec s on c ea ing equal oppo uni ies
o ci izens. Human capi al is he skills and knowledge acqui ed by which people imp o e
hei economic p oduc i i y, includes no only o mal educa ion bu also on- he-job aining,
wo k expe ience, sel -lea ning, and any o he ype o in es men ha imp o e a pe son’s
abili y o pe o m hei job (Becke 1975). These in es men s a e a ionally aken by
e alua ing he cos –bene i ela ionship, so u u e gains ob ained h ough highe wages
and g ea e employmen oppo uni ies a e weighed. In es men in human capi al akes
signi ican impo ance; i gua an ees a eal and signi ican educ ion in po e y; he e o e,
i becomes a p ima y objec i e o de eloped and de eloping economies. In his sense,
Mince (1991) main ains ha highe educa ion has posi i e e ec s on main aining people’s
incomes while simul aneously educing unemploymen isk.
Olopade e al. (2019) in a s udy o he 12 OPEC coun ies, whe e heo e ically he
esou ce cu se hypo hesis could be an obs acle o economic g ow h and ha e implica ions
o po e y, de e mine ha he e is a posi i e in e ac ion be ween human capi al and
po e y educ ion. They ecommend ha in es men should be made in imp o ing he
quali y o human capi al h ough educa ion and heal h. In his ega d, acco ding o he
same au ho , OPEC membe s ha alloca ed signi ican pe cen ages o educa ion ha e
achie ed a educ ion in he po e y a e (1.47%).
Rega ding in as uc u e, i is a main channel o ag icul u al, indus ial, comme -
cial, and se ice p oduc ion, as in as uc u e suppo s he de elopmen o he coun y’s
economic ac i i ies. E icien public in as uc u e boos s compe i i eness in local and
egional ma ke s and, he e o e, he na ional ma ke , he eby p omo ing p oduc i i y and
compe i i eness. In his way, Rozas and Sánchez (2004) s a e ha : “T anspo ne wo ks
(
. . .
) cons i u e a cen al in eg a ion elemen o he economic and e i o ial sys em, making
ansac ions possible wi hin a speci ic geog aphic/economic space, and wi h he ou side”
(p. 8). The e o e, hese au ho s highligh he a o able ela ionship be ween in as uc u e
and po e y educ ion, as he esul s show ha a he egional (La in Ame ican) le el he e
is a nega i e ela ionship (
−
0.023071). Thus, in es men s in in as uc u e imp o e he
popula ion’s access o ma ke s and enable co e age o se ices such as educa ion, heal h,
housing, anspo , employmen , e c. Cu en ly, he e is a signi ican gap in in as uc u e.
“Closing he in as uc u e gap o he pe iod 2016–2025 would imply an a e age annual
in es men o 8.27% o GDP (i.e., USD 15,955 million annually)” (Boni az e al. 2015).
2.3. The Pe u ian Regional Po e y
A iza and Re ajac (2020) poin ou ha po e y is a socioeconomic si ua ion whe e
he e is ulne abili y and a lack o necessa y esou ces o subsis ence, such as ood,
heal h, educa ion, ela ionships, and p oduc i i y. The e o e, Bo ga and D’Amb osio (2021)
speci y ha in he ace o he exis ence o ch onic po e y and unde employmen , i is
necessa y o implemen public wo k p og ams wi h adequa e emune a ion and du a ion
ha would make i possible o accumula e economic capi al. Fo his eason, ega ding
public expendi u e, Hlasny e al. (2022) indica e ha i s amoun and e icacy a e impo an
o achie ing a educ ion in inequali y as pa o he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs).
The e o e, po e y educ ion equi es e ec i e managemen o public esou ces alloca ed o
social p og ams ha demons a e hei signi ican con ibu ion o imp o ing he well-being
o he mos ulne able popula ion segmen s in he sho , medium, and long e ms.
Economies 2024,12, 197 5 o 19
Po e y a ec s mos o he wo ld’s popula ion, expe iencing a decline o e he las
25 yea s. Howe e , s a ing wi h he COVID-19 pandemic, he dec easing end was
in e up ed (Banco Mundial 2022). Simila ly, he beha io o he po e y a e in Pe u has
ollowed he same end, wi h be e esul s compa ed o o he coun ies; since po e y in
gene al as a pe cen age o he o al popula ion in 2001 ose o 54.8% (INEI 2023), i s ood a
20.2% in 2019, ising again in 2022 o 27.5% due o COVID-19. I is impo an o highligh
ha he dec eases in he po e y a e ha e aken place, hanks o he good pe o mance o
he coun y’s mac oeconomic a iables, pa icula ly highligh ing he economic g ow h ha
began in 2002, un il be o e he pandemic. “Coun ies ha managed o educe hei po e y
did so by inc easing he a e age income associa ed wi h economic g ow h. The e o e,
he dec ease in he egional po e y a e occu ed in he con ex o widesp ead economic
g ow h” (León Mendoza 2019, p. 4).
Chapa e al. (2022), in hei s udies on he impac o social p og ams on po e y le els,
ha e de eloped a social ma ix o Mexico in 2008, which is squa e and p esen s income
and expenses, di ided by economic sec o , p oduc ion ac o , and ins i u ion. They wo k
on a linea gene al equilib ium model based on h ee social p og ams: Opo unidades,
P ocampo, and Adul o Mayo . In his way, hey ind a a o able impac o social p og ams
on educing Mexican po e y, (as s a ed abo e) dec easing i s le el by 9% and gene a ing
di ec and indi ec e ec s ha imp o e income dis ibu ion.
Bo ga and D’Amb osio (2021) e alua e he impac o h ee social p og ams: The P o-
duc i e Sa e y Ne P og am in E hiopia (PSNP), Na ional Ru al Employmen Gua an ee
Ac in India, and Jun os P og am in Pe u. These au ho s use panel da a p o ided by i e
su eys om 2002 o 2016. Di e en po e y h esholds a e conside ed o analyze he dis-
ibu i e impac o he p og ams and hei in luence on po e y le els in h ee dimensions:
li ing s anda ds, heal h, and educa ion. The p og am’s impac is econome ically e alua ed,
es ima ing di e ence-in-di e ences (DID) models wi h p opensi y sco e ma ching (PSM)
me hods; a e es ima ing he i s - ound logi model ha conside s household weal h,
household membe s, u al o u ban loca ion, and mo he ’s cha ac e is ics.
Bo ga and D’Amb osio (2021) analyzed h ee o mo e indica o s in he PSNP and
Jun os P og am, es ablishing ha hey do no p esen a s a is ically signi ican impac on
educing he po e y incidence, bu hei in ensi y is educed. In his sense, pa icipa ing
in social p og ams is associa ed wi h a dec ease in he indica o s o po e y dimensions
analyzed. In his way, he e ec is g ea e o people wi h a highe le el o po e y due o
he mul iple dep i a ions hey ace. And o he speci ic case o he Jun os P og am, he e
is a highe educ ion in po e y, whe e he mul idimensional po e y index dec eases om
0.57 (2006) o 0.17 (2016), wi h a dec ease in he incidence o po e y o 54% and a dec ease
in he po e y in ensi y o 18% o e a decade.
A iza and Re ajac (2020) e alua e he ac o s associa ed wi h u ban po e y in Colom-
bia (2002–2018), using indica o s o incidence, gap, and se e i y, which a e based on income,
po e y h eshold, and po e y si ua ion. Fu he mo e, a logi model is es ima ed con-
side ing as dependen a iables po e y and explana o y sociodemog aphic a iables o
size, composi ion, educa ional le el, and cha ac e is ics wi hin households, as well as
unemploymen , non-labo income, and ex e nal suppo .
S ampini e al. (2016) used syn he ic panels, conside ing da a om he Ha monized
Da abase o Household Su eys o La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean (Sociome e -IDB), o
e alua e he ulne abili y o he poo and middle class om wel e coun ies, including
Pe u. They es ablished ha ch onic po e y comp ises 91% o ex eme po e y and 50%
o mode a e po e y, inding ha ch onic po e y condi ions ha e a e y low le el o
human capi al and ew oppo uni ies o employmen due o hei esidence in u al a eas.
The e o e, i is di icul o s a egies o imp o e he capaci y o gene a e income in his
popula ion segmen o be success ul. The au ho s also ind ha 14% o he middle class has
expe ienced a si ua ion o po e y o e a decade. They conside ha o igh agains ch onic
po e y, long- e m social policies mus be combined wi h hose o he ex emely u al poo .
Economies 2024,12, 197 6 o 19
Whe eas, o ansi o y po e y, hey poin ou ha sho - e m policy measu es a e equi ed
wi h lexible en y and exi assis ance om he social p og am o u ban esiden s.
In his con ex , he coun y’s u al sec o needs o be p io i ized in academic e-
lec ions, conside ing ha hese households a e he mos likely o su e he impac o
in e na ional a ia ion in ood p ices. Pa adoxically, a pa o he peasan ’s ood die comes
om impo ed supplies, a ec ing hei ood secu i y. The suppo o social p og ams is
necessa y o educe his e ec , con ibu e o hei esilience, and educe hei ulne abili y
(Osabohien e al. 2024). Social suppo encou ages amilies o adop be e s a egies o
cope wi h pe iods o c isis, a oiding g ea e ad e se e ec s on he u al popula ion, such
as dec eased access o educa ion and heal h (Abay e al. 2023). In addi ion, i is neces-
sa y o p o ide help o add ess demog aphic challenges such as he mig a ion o young
people and he popula ion aging ha a ec ag icul u al ac i i ies in he di e en egions
(Lindoso e al. 2018).
The e o e, in Pe u, igo ous and comp ehensi e social p og ams a e needed o sup-
po he poo u al popula ion and ma ginal u ban a eas, who need access o oppo uni ies
o each a be e quali y o li e (Quispe-Mamani e al. 2022). I would be pe inen o
inco po a e digi al echnologies in a o o bene icia ies o o e come geog aphical limi a-
ions, imp o e access o in o ma ion, b oaden hei employmen p ospec s, and inc ease
hei pe sonal de elopmen (Polo Escoba e al. 2023). Likewise, i is impo an o boos
inancial educa ion h ough he Pilo P og am o he P omo ion o Sa ings in he Jun os
P og am (Dahe e al. 2022), aimed a bene icia ies in u al a eas, so ha hey ha e a sa -
ings accoun and access o inancial se ices ha allow hem g ea e economic and social
inclusion. Dahe e al. (2022) poin ou ha hese ypes o p og ams ha e a signi ican
impac on de elopmen , empowe men , and emale en ep eneu ship. Finally, Jun os aims
o in e up he in e gene a ional cycle o Pe u ian u al po e y (San os e al. 2021). I
has been ocusing on ac ions ela ed o heal h and educa ion, conside ing ha economic
ulne abili y a ec s he condi ions o well-being and economic and social de elopmen o
u al a eas in he egions.
3. Me hods, Econome ic Speci ica ion and Da a
3.1. Me hods
Ou me hod is quan i a i e, non-expe imen al, and co ela ional, based on seconda y
da a ob ained om o icial sou ces, such as he Ins i u o Nacional de Es adis ica e In o ma -
ica (INEI) and he use - iendly que y o he Minis y o Economy and Finance (MEF), as
well as da a ob ained om he Pe u ian Ins i u e o Economics (IPE). The in o ma ion o
he pe iod 2013–2022 a he le el o he 24 depa men s/ egions was conside ed. We use
he sys em gene alized me hod o momen s (SGMM) o es ima e he econome ic dynamic
panel da a models, in o de o ob ain in o ma ion o e a long pe iod o ime and ac oss
en i ies ( egions).
We s udied he ou mos ep esen a i e social p og ams: The Na ional P og am o
Di ec Suppo o he Poo es Jun os, Na ional Solida i y Assis ance P og am Pension
65, Na ional School Nu i ion P og am Qali Wa ma, and P og am o he Gene a ion o
Social Inclusi e Employmen “T abaja Pe ú”. Addi ionally, socioeconomic a iables, such
as unemploymen , g oss Domes ic P oduc pe capi a (income), human capi al, physical
in as uc u e, and o a ed expendi u e we e analyzed. Also, dummy a iables on he
occu ence o COVID-19 and he “El Niño” phenomenon (FEN2017) we e included.
A dynamic panel da a model was used, conside ing he a ious ad an ages o e o he
econome ic echniques; i co ec s he p oblem o endogenei y, allows con ol o cons an
unobse able he e ogenei y, empo al e ec con ol, modeling o dynamic e ec s, and
a oids agg ega ion bias, among o he s. This p oblem a ising om he indi idual e ec
ends o be elimina ed when wo king wi h se ies in i s di e ences as ins umen s.
Economies 2024,12, 197 7 o 19
3.2. Econome ic Speci ica ion
Unde he SGMM econome ic me hodology, ou dynamic model was cons uc ed
and speci ied:
Yi =c+∝Yi,( −1)+βX′i +εi
εi =µi+ϑi
E(ui)=E(ϑi )=E(µiϑi )=0
The ollowing gene al equa ion has been conside ed:
Y( )=c+∝Y( −1)+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+β5X5+β6X6
+β7X7( −1)+β8X8( −1)+β9X9( −1)+β10 X10 +ε( )
Y:Po e y
X1: Income
X2: “El Niño” phenomenon
X3: Unemploymen
X4: Human Capi al
X5: In as uc u e
X6: COVID 19
X7: Jun os
X8: Pensión65
X9: Qaliwa ma
X10: T abaja Pe ú
The ollowing gene al po e y equa ion is p oposed:
Pob eza( )=c+
∝Pob eza( −1)+β1Ing eso +β2FEN2017 +β3Desempleo +β4Capi al Humano
+β5In aes uc u a +β6Co id19 +β7Jun os( −1)+β8Pensin65( −1)
+β9Qaliwa ma( −1)+β10 T abaja Pe +ε( )
In he nex sec ion, se en (07) SGMM econome ic es ima ions a e ob ained om his
equa ion, whe e he in luence o socioeconomic a iables and he impac o social p og ams
implemen ed in Pe u o educe po e y a e econome ically analyzed.
3.3. Da a
Da a o ou empi ical analysis has been ob ained om di e en Pe u ian o icial
sou ces. Table 1shows he a iables name, ollowing by de ini ion and sou ces. They
included social p og ams, socioeconomic a iables and wo dummy a iables such as
phenomenon El Niño and he pandemic o COVID-19.
Table 1. Socioeconomic a iables.
Va iable Name De ini ion Sou ce
Po e y % o popula ion in po e y condi ions Pe u ian Ins i u e o Economics (IPE)
Po e y(−1) % o popula ion in po e y condi ions,
lagged by one pe iod Pe u ian Ins i u e o Economics (IPE)
Income Real GDP pe capi a Cen al Rese e Bank o Pe u (BCRP 2022)
FEN2017 El Niño Phenomenon o 2017 Dummy Va iable
Unemploymen Unemploymen a e as a pe cen age o
he economically ac i e popula ion
Na ional Ins i u e o S a is ics and In o ma ics
(INEI)
Human Capi al A e age yea s o educa ion achie ed by
he popula ion aged 15 and o e
Na ional Ins i u e o S a is ics and In o ma ics
(INEI)
Economies 2024,12, 197 8 o 19
Table 1. Con .
Va iable Name De ini ion Sou ce
In as uc u e
Pe cen age o exis ing oad in as uc u e
ha is pa ed (na ional highway) Minis y o T anspo and Communica ions
COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 Dummy Va iable
Jun os Social p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
Pensión 65 Social p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
Qali Wa ma Social p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
T abaja Pe úSocial p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
Own elabo a ion.
A e co ela ions we e ob ained, Figu e 1shows a nega i e ela ionship be ween
po e y le els and human capi al, in as uc u e, pe capi a income. On he o he hand,
Figu e 2, shows a posi i e ela ionship be ween po e y a es and he di e en social
p og ams spending, including Jun os, Pensión 65, Qali Wa ma, and T abaja Pe u.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 19
Human Capi al A e age yea s o educa ion achie ed by he popula ion
aged 15 and o e
Na ional Ins i u e o S a is ics and In o ma ics
(INEI)
In as uc u e Pe cen age o exis ing oad in as uc u e ha is pa ed
(na ional highway) Minis y o T anspo and Communica ions
COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 Dummy Va iable
Jun os Social p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
Pensión 65 Social p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
Qali Wa ma Social p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
T abaja Pe ú Social p og am Minis y o Economy and Finance
Own elabo a ion.
A e co ela ions we e ob ained, Figu e 1 shows a nega i e ela ionship be ween
po e y le els and human capi al, in as uc u e, pe capi a income. On he o he hand,
Figu e 2, shows a posi i e ela ionship be ween po e y a es and he diffe en social p o-
g ams spending, including Jun os, Pensión 65, Qali Wa ma, and T abaja Pe u.
Figu e 1. Rela ionship be ween po e y and pe capi a GDP, unemploymen , human capi al, in a-
s uc u e, and social p og ams.
Figu e 1. Rela ionship be ween po e y and pe capi a GDP, unemploymen , human capi al, in as-
uc u e, and social p og ams.
Economies 2024,12, 197 15 o 19
On he o he hand, he Qali Wa ma school eeding p og am also does no ha e a
signi ican e ec on po e y le els, wi h i s e ec being ma ginal (coe icien o 0.0012
and p- alue o 0.027) in he SGMM 5 model, while in he SGMM7 model, whe e all social
p og ams a e conside ed, a non-signi ican alue wi h a p- alue o 0.681 is obse ed. The
esul s a e in acco dance wi h wha was ound in Mexico, whe e he School B eak as
P og am o Mexico Ci y, acco ding o he s udy by Sánchez Va gas e al. (2019), de e mined
ha he esul s o he es ima es sugges ha he school eeding p og am does no lead o
signi ican changes in g ades, obse ing ha pa icipa ion in he School B eak as P og am
shows a posi i e, bu no signi ican ela ionship wi h academic sco e. Thus, being a
pa icipan in he p og am would aise he sco e only by 2.3% in ou h-g ade p ima y
s uden s; howe e , his coe icien lacks s a is ical signi icance since i s p- alue is 0.321,
meaning he p og am would no ha e colla e al e ec s on educing po e y in he long
e m. These esul s a e aligned wi h wha F ancke and Acos a (2021) ind when s udying
he impac o he Qali Wa ma p og am on anemia and malnu i ion in child en aged 3
o 5 yea s, de e mining ha he p og am would no ha e e ec s on anemia o ch onic
malnu i ion, a leas in he age ange s udied. Because, acco ding o hem, he p obabili y
ha child en do no ha e anemia i hey bene i om he p og am is jus 1.8%.
Rega ding he employmen assis ance p og am T abaja Pe ú, e alua ed in he SGMM6
and SGMM7 eg essions, i is obse ed ha i is also no signi ican o explain he educ ion
in po e y in he coun y since he p- alue is g ea e han 0.10. These esul s coincide wi h
hose o Ab amo e al. (2019), in a s udy o social p og ams o La in Ame ica, in which hey
indica e ha while he poo o ex emely poo popula ion may manage o be employed,
hey do so in low-p oduc i i y jobs. Since 74.4% o men and women in 2016 we e employed
in low-p oduc i i y sec o s o he i s income quin ile, and o a second quin ile, 60.8% o
his same ype o popula ion we e also employed in low-p oduc i i y sec o s. In his sense,
he bene icia y popula ion o his p og am ocuses on low-skilled jobs, which limi s he
p og am’s impac , besides being designed as a empo a y solu ion and no add essing he
s uc u al ac o s ha con ibu e o educing po e y in he long e m.
The limi ed capaci y o social p og ams o alle ia e po e y is in line wi h Phan
e al. (2017), whe e hey do no ind a s a is ically signi ican ela ionship be ween po e y
educ ion and spending on p og ams ha a e designed o bene i people li ing in po e y o
economic ulne abili y. In his ega d, he p- alue o he coe icien s ound in he es ima ion
exceeds he h eshold o 5%. This esul would e lec he complexi y o he managemen o
hese social p og ams, adding ha he implemen a ion o he p og am can p esen il e ing
p oblems, so ha he bene i s o hese p og ams a e cap u ed by non-poo g oups, hus
damaging he e ec i eness o he p og am. In addi ion, ano he elemen o ine iciency
could be due o co up ion. Olken (2006) poin s ou ha edis ibu i e p og ams, especially
in de eloping coun ies, can p omo e co up ion and consequen ly gene a e economic
losses ha exceed he bene i s ecei ed by ecipien s.
6. Conclusions, Recommenda ions and Limi a ions
The e is a nega i e impac /indi ec ela ionship bew een income, human capi al, and
in as uc u e on po e y le els, while a di ec ela ionship is obse ed be ween po e y
and spending on social p og ams such as Jun os, Pensión 65, Qali Wa ma, and T abaja
Pe ú. These esul s we e ob ained using he Sys em Gene alized Me hod o Momen s,
which es ablished solid and eliable ounda ions. Thus we a e con ibu ing o he body o
knowledge exis ing in he economic li e a u e o imp o e he quali y o social spending
and public budge managemen .
Social p og ams implemen ed by Pe u ian go e nmen s in ecen decades aimed a
educing po e y pa adoxically ha e no been ha ing a signi ican impac on educing
po e y a he egional and na ional le els. They would be weak public policy ins umen s
o gene a e a s uc u al change in he inequali y le els p esen in Pe u ian socie y. The e-
o e, hei main objec i es would only be aimed a mi iga ing he e ec s o inequali y on
po e y le els.
Economies 2024,12, 197 16 o 19
On he o he hand, socioeconomic a iables such as pe capi a income, employmen ,
human capi al, and p oduc i e in as uc u e ha e a signi ican impac on educing e-
gional po e y in Pe u. I is ecommendable o go e nmen s o inc ease in es men in
in as uc u e, such as unnels, mo e oads, po s, ains, b idges, elecommunica ions, he
In e ne , e c., in egions o allow u al and poo inhabi an s o connec wi h na ional and
in e na ional ma ke s, ge p oduc i e jobs, and inc ease hei income.
Un o una ely, social p og ams ha e no had a o able esul s in he ecen decade,
e en wi h inc easing public inancing. Howe e , he bes way o escape po e y is h ough
be e aining/quali ica ion o human capi al, subs an ial imp o emen o physical in as-
uc u e, and income gene a ion h ough well-paid o mal employmen , whe e he wo ke
deploys all hei p oduc i e capaci ies, ob ains social bene i s, and con ibu es e ec i ely
o hei pe sonal de elopmen , egional de elopmen , and he coun y in gene al.
The sys em gene alized me hod o momen s was demons a ed as being a good
ins umen o analyze egional po e y in Pe u. The esul s a e consis en wi h o he s
p e iously ob ained by di e en au ho s. Social p og ams implemen ed in Pe u in he las
ew decades ha e no had clea esul s in educing po e y. I is also ai o poin ou ha
COVID-19 has inc eased he po e y a e in he las ew yea s. Howe e , we can be su e
ha human capi al, in as uc u e, employmen , and income can help signi ican ly educe
po e y a es.
To educe po e y sus ainably in he long e m, a comp ehensi e policy should be
implemen ed, ocusing on add essing he s uc u al causes o po e y, which should
combine he p omo ion o economic g ow h, he s eng hening o human capi al, and
he de elopmen o in as uc u e. Incen i es o in es men and job c ea ion should be
es ablished h ough a a o able en i onmen o p i a e and o eign in es men h ough ax
incen i es, simpli ica ion o public bu eauc acy, and p ope managemen o social con lic s.
I should also seek o imp o e educa ion and job aining by in es ing in quali y educa ion
accessible o all and de eloping job aining p og ams o imp o e he employabili y and
p oduc i i y o he wo k o ce. Finally, de elop basic in as uc u e and mode nize anspo
in as uc u e o acili a e access and connec i i y o na ional and in e na ional ma ke s.
Among he limi s o ou esea ch is he Sys em Gene alized Me hod o Momen s
(SGMM), which cons i u es a con ibu ion o he explana ion o egional po e y in Pe u.
Howe e , i can be men ioned ha socioeconomic and geog aphical di e ences be ween
egions can in oduce unobse ed he e ogenei y, ha he SGMM does no cap u e ade-
qua ely, and ha i could lead o biased es ima es. Likewise, he e may be unobse ed,
egion-speci ic e ec s, such as cul u al o public policy ac o s, ha canno be measu ed
wi h he a iables included in he model.
Ou heo e ical-ma hema ical explana ion can be imp o ed by employing echniques
ha inco po a e he analysis o mul idimensional po e y, cap u ing mo e comple ely he
sho comings ha people ace beyond mone a y po e y. I is ecognized ha mone a y
po e y may no cap u e all dimensions o po e y, some de iciencies in heal h o edu-
ca ion a e no necessa ily e lec ed in he mone a y po e y measu e. The e o e, impac
e alua ions wi h expe imen al me hods could help iden i y he e ec s o social p og ams,
by compa ing ea men and con ol g oups.
As o socioeconomic a iables, such as unemploymen , human capi al, and physical
in as uc u e, i can be poin ed ou ha hei measu emen does no in e nalize he quali y
o employmen o unde employmen , which also a ec s po e y. The a e age yea s
o educa ion conside ed as human capi al only e lec he numbe o yea s ha people
ha e spen in he o mal educa ion sys em; i does no cap u e i s quali y o he skills
acqui ed. The physical in as uc u e a iable, measu ed as a pe cen age o asphal ed oad
in as uc u e, could be imp o ed by building an indica o ha includes ailways, ai po s,
and po s, which would p o ide a mo e comple e idea o he connec i i y and accessibili y
o he egion.
Economies 2024,12, 197 17 o 19
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, J.A.H.P. and I.Y.V.S.; me hodology and so wa e H.R.B.A.;
alida ion, J.A.H.P., I.Y.V.S. and S.C.C.M.; o mal analysis, H.R.B.A.; in es iga ion, J.A.H.P., I.Y.V.S.,
S.C.C.M. and H.R.B.A.; esou ces; da a cu a ion, S.C.C.M.; w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion,
J.A.H.P., I.Y.V.S., H.R.B.A. and S.C.C.M.; w i ing— e iew and edi ing, H.R.B.A.; isualiza ion, J.A.H.P.,
I.Y.V.S., H.R.B.A. and S.C.C.M.; supe ision, J.A.H.P.; p ojec adminis a ion, J.A.H.P.; unding
acquisi ion, J.A.H.P. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: We acknowledge Uni e sidad Nacional Mayo de San Ma cos o unding his publica ion.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : Da a suppo ing epo ed esul s can be ound a Ins i u o Nacional
de Es adís ica e In o ma ica (www.inei.gob.pe), Rese e Cen al Bank o Pe u (www.bc p.gob.pe);
Minis y o Economy and Finance (www.me .gob.pe); and Ins i u o Pe uano de Economia (www.ipe.
o g.pe).
Acknowledgmen s: We acknowledge he commen s and ecommenda ions om ou colleagues in
he “VLI Rese e Cen al Bank o Pe u Mee ing”, Lima, Pe u (Oc obe , 2023).
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic s o in e es . The unde s had no ole in he design
o he s udy; in he collec ion, analyses, o in e p e a ion o da a; in he w i ing o he manusc ip , o
in he decision o publish he esul s.
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