Wajne , Daniel F.; Des adi, Sand a; Zü n, Michael
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The e ec s o global populism: assessing he populis
impac on in e na ional a ai s
In e na ional A ai s
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The e ec s o global populism:
assessing he populis impac on
in e na ional a ai s
DANIELF. WAJNER, SANDRA DESTRADI AND
MICHAEL ZÜRN*
In e na ional A ai s 100: 5 (2024) 1819–1833; doi: 10.1093/ia/iiae217
© The Au ho (s) 2024. Published by Ox o d Uni e si y P ess on behal o The Royal Ins i u e o In e na ional A ai s. This is
an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/
licenses/by/4.0/), which pe mi s un es ic ed euse, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k
is p ope ly ci ed.
O e he pas decade, con empo a y poli ics has g adually en e ed an e a o
global populism. Al hough populis phenomena ha e been examined in he social
sciences o mo e han a cen u y, i is only ecen ly ha populis leade s ha e
simul aneously o med go e nmen s in such a wide ange o coun ies, in bo h
he global No h and he global Sou h. Mo eo e , he 2016B exi e e endum in
he Uni ed Kingdom and he poli ical a en ion ga ne ed by new ypes o populis
pa ies and mo emen s in Eu ope, he Ame icas, and Asia bea wi ness o claims
o an eme ging ‘global ise o populism’.1
A he same ime as he e has been enewed in e es in he domes ic d i e s o
populis s’ success and hei consequences o na ional socie ies, a g owing numbe
o s udies ha e add essed he in e na ional dimensions o populism,2 ocusing on
issues like he in e na ional componen s o populis discou se and pe o mance,3
o collec ing ich empi ical e idence o populis o eign policy in single cases.4 In
* This a icle se es as an in oduc ion o a special sec ion in he Sep embe 2024 issue o In e na ional A ai s
on ‘The e ec s o global populism’, gues -edi ed by DanielF. Wajne and Sand a Des adi. This esea ch
was inancially suppo ed by he Is ael Science Founda ion, g an No. 2450/22 (Daniel F. Wajne ) and by he
Ge man Resea ch Founda ion, g an No. DFG-DE 1918/3-1 (Sand a Des adi).
1 Ca los de la To e, ed., Rou ledge handbook o global populism (Abingdon and New Yo k: Rou ledge, 2018);
RonaldF. Ingleha and Pippa No is, T ump, B exi , and he ise o populism: economic ha e-no s and cul u al back-
lash, Wo king Pape No.RWP16-026 (Camb idge,MA: JohnF. Kennedy School o Go e nmen , Ha a d
Uni e si y, 2016); S e en Le i sky and Daniel Zibla , How democ acies die (New Yo k: C own, 2018); Benjamin
Mo i , The global ise o populism: pe o mance, poli ical s yle, and ep esen a ion (Redwood Ci y,CA: S an o d
Uni e si y P ess, 2016).
2 See Sand a Des adi, Da id Cadie and Johannes Plagemann, ‘Populism and o eign policy: a esea ch agenda
(in oduc ion)’, Compa a i e Eu opean Poli ics, ol.19, 2021, pp. 663–82, h ps://doi.o g/10.1057/s41295-021-
00255-4; Philip Giu lando and DanielF. Wajne , eds, Populis o eign policy: egional pe spec i es o populism in
he in e na ional scene (Cham, Swi ze land: Sp inge , 2023); Geo g Lö lmann, ‘In oduc ion o special issue:
he s udy o populism in In e na ional Rela ions’, The B i ish Jou nal o Poli ics and In e na ional Rela ions 24:3,
2022, pp.403–15, h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/13691481221103116; F ankA. S engel, Da idB. MacDonald and Di k
Nabe s, eds, Populism and wo ld poli ics: explo ing in e - and ansna ional dimensions (Cham, Swi ze land: Sp inge ,
2019).
3 Angelos Ch yssogelos, ‘S a e ans o ma ion and populism: om he in e na ionalized o he neo-so e eign
s a e?’, Poli ics 40: 1, 2020, pp. 22–37, h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/0263395718803830; Daniel F. Wajne , ‘The
populis way ou : why con empo a y populis leade s seek ansna ional legi ima ion’, The B i ish Jou nal o
Poli ics and In e na ional Rela ions 24:3, 2022, pp.416–36, h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/13691481211069345; Michael
Zü n, ‘How non-majo i a ian ins i u ions make silen majo i ies ocal: a poli ical explana ion o au ho i a -
ian populism’, Pe spec i es on Poli ics 20:3, 2022, pp.788–807, h ps://doi.o g/10.1017/S1537592721001043.
4 See E inK. Jenne, ‘Populism, na ionalism and e isionis o eign policy’, In e na ional A ai s 97:2, 2021,
pp.323–43, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiaa230; Feliciano de Sá Guima ães and I ma Du a de Oli ei a e Sil a,
‘Fa - igh populism and o eign policy iden i y: Jai Bolsona o’s ul a-conse a ism and he new poli ics o
alignmen ’, In e na ional A ai s 97: 2, 2021, pp.345–63, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiaa220; Sand a Des adi
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pa allel, he issue o populism has been aised in deba es abou he con es a ions o
he ‘libe al sc ip ’ and he c isis o he libe al in e na ional o de (LIO),5 d awing
a en ion o how populis s ha e been ying o hollow ou such o de om wi hin
and ha e been p omo ing illibe al al e na i es.6 So a , howe e , his h i ing new
esea ch a ea has p oduced somewha sca e ed indings, poin ing o populism’s
a ious e ec s on in e na ional poli ics, bu wi hou con incingly explaining he
easons o he obse able a ia ions. Fo eign and secu i y policies di e be ween
di e en populis go e nmen s, and so do he implica ions o populism o global
coope a ion and egional in eg a ion. In o he wo ds, we s ill lack a sys ema ic and
heo y-led unde s anding o he di e en impac s o populism on o eign policy
and in e na ional o de .
This special sec ion o In e na ional A ai s aims o b idge hese heo e ical and
empi ical gaps by sys ema ically examining h ee ypes o in e na ional e ec s
ha populism has on poli ics, policies and poli ies. The e idence p esen ed in he
con ibu ions which make up his sec ion is geog aphically di e se and he eby
does jus ice o he global cha ac e o populism. In he emainde o his in oduc-
ion, we p opose a heo e ical amewo k ha helps us make sense o a ia ions
in populis s’ o eign policies and in he app oach o populis s o in e na ional
ins i u ions. We hen summa ize he indings o he con ibu ing a icles, and
we conclude by discussing hei policy- ela ed implica ions as well as iden i ying
emaining unanswe ed ques ions and a enues o u he esea ch.
Va ian s o populism and hei in e na ional e ec s
The li e a u e on populism om compa a i e poli ics and poli ical heo y o e s
se e al di e en unde s andings o and app oaches o populism. Some schola s
see i as a s a egy o he acquisi ion and subsequen main enance o powe .7
and Johannes Plagemann, ‘Populism and In e na ional Rela ions: (un)p edic abili y, pe sonalisa ion, and
he ein o cemen o exis ing ends in wo ld poli ics’, Re iew o In e na ional S udies 45:5, 2019, pp.711–30,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1017/S0260210519000184; Be jan Ve beek and And ej Zaslo e, ‘Populism and o eign
policy’, in C is óbal Ro i a Kal wasse e al., eds, The Ox o d handbook o populism (Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e -
si y P ess, 2017), pp.384–405; E ik Voe en, ‘Populism and backlashes agains in e na ional cou s’, Pe spec i es
on Poli ics 18:2, 2020, pp.407–22, h ps://doi.o g/10.1017/S1537592719000975; DanielF. Wajne , ‘Explo -
ing he o eign policies o populis go e nmen s: (La in) Ame ica i s ’, Jou nal o In e na ional Rela ions and
De elopmen , ol.24, 2021, pp.651–80, h ps://doi.o g/10.1057/s41268-020-00206-8; LeslieE. Wehne and
Came onG. Thies, ‘The nexus o populism and o eign policy: he case o La in Ame ica’, In e na ional Rela-
ions 35:2, 2021, pp.320–40, h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/0047117820944430.
5 Emanuel Adle and Alena D iescho a, ‘The epis emological challenge o u h sub e sion o he libe al in e na-
ional o de ’, In e na ional O ganiza ion 75:2, 2021, pp.359–86, h ps://doi.o g/10.1017/S0020818320000533; F ancis
Fukuyama, ‘The populis su ge’, The Ame ican In e es 13:4, 2018; G.John Ikenbe y, ‘The end o libe al in e -
na ional o de ?’, In e na ional A ai s 94:1, 2018, pp.7–23, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iix241; Ma kus Ko np obs
and T.V. Paul, ‘Globaliza ion, deglobaliza ion and he libe al in e na ional o de ’, In e na ional A ai s 97:5, 2021,
pp.1305–16, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiab120; Benjamin Mille , ‘How “making he wo ld in i s own libe al
image” made he Wes less libe al’, In e na ional A ai s 97:5, 2021, pp.1353–75, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiab114;
Da idA. Lake, LisaL. Ma in and Thomas Risse, ‘Challenges o he libe al o de : e lec ions on In e na ional
O ganiza ion’, In e na ional O ganiza ion 75:2, 2021, pp.225–7, h ps://doi.o g/10.1017/S0020818320000636.
6 TanjaA. Bö zel and Michael Zü n, ‘Con es a ions o he libe al in e na ional o de : om libe al mul ila e -
alism o pos na ional libe alism’, In e na ional O ganiza ion 75:2, 2021, pp.282–305, h ps://doi.o g/10.1017/
S0020818320000570; F ed ik Söde baum, Kilian Spandle and Agnese Paccia di, Con es a ions o he libe al in e -
na ional o de : a populis sc ip o egional coope a ion (Camb idge,UK: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, 2021).
7 Ku Weyland, ‘A poli ical-s a egic app oach’, in C is óbal Ro i a Kal wasse e al., eds, The Ox o d handbook
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O he s ocus mo e on i s discu si e aspec s, as wi h he Laclauian app oach, which
add esses populism as a poli ical logic o a ‘logic o a icula ion’ ha simpli ies he
poli ical space by c ea ing a dicho omy be ween he ‘people’ and a powe bloc.8
Resea ch is also paying inc easing a en ion o he s ylis ic aspec s o populism,
ocusing on he pe o ma i e ole o leade ship, communica ion p ac ices and
emo ions in a ac ing audiences and ollowe s.9 Recen yea s ha e also wi nessed
he de elopmen o new, s ill unde s udied app oaches o he s udy o populism,
such as in e sec ional and gende app oaches.10 O e ime, he idea ional app oach,
which sugges s s udying populism as an ideology, became dominan .11 In pa ic-
ula , he idea o populism as a hin ideology ha is usually combined wi h hicke
hos ideologies plays a key ole in he analysis o con empo a y populism.12 Such
a hin ideology ‘conside s socie y o be ul ima ely sepa a ed in o wo homoge-
neous and an agonis ic g oups, “ he pu e people” e sus “ he co up eli e”, and
…a gues ha poli ics should be an exp ession o he olon é géné ale (gene al will)
o he people’.13
Assessing he e ec o populism on o eign policy and in e na ional ins i u ions
depends on such concep ual decisions. Fo ins ance, adop ing a Laclauian discu -
si e app oach o populism makes i ha d o expec a high deg ee o o eign policy
commonali y be ween di e en populis leade ships.14 Since a Laclauian app oach
sepa a es populism sha ply om na ionalism, au ho i a ianism and an i-plu alism,
a b oad se o qui e di e en ac o s come in o ocus, hus a ec ing he iden i ica ion
o hei impac . Simila ly, he s a egic app oach and a slim idea ional app oach a e
open o a wide a ay o di e en ‘hos ideologies’, making i unlikely ha di e en
populis mo emen s will consis en ly display an iden ical o eign policy.15
Agains his backg ound, we use he concep o au ho i a ian populism as a mo e
o less hick ideology o p o ide a subs an ial e e ence-poin o ou heo e ical
o populism, pp.48–72.
8 E nes o Laclau, On populis eason (London: Ve so, 2005), p.44.
9 See Mo i , The global ise o populism.
10 See o example Gab iele Die ze and Julia Ro h, ‘Righ -wing populism and gende : a p elimina y ca og-
aphy o an eme gen esea ch ield’, in Gab iele Die ze and Julia Ro h, eds, Righ -wing populism and gende :
Eu opean pe spec i es and beyond (Biele eld: T ansc ip , 2020); Shwe a Singh and Élise Fé on, ‘Towa ds an in e -
sec ional app oach o populism: compa a i e pe spec i es om Finland and India’, Con empo a y Poli ics 27:5,
2021, pp.528–49, h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/13569775.2021.1917164.
11 See Ki kA. Hawkins and C is óbal Ro i a Kal wasse , ‘The idea ional app oach o populism’, La in Ame ican
Resea ch Re iew 52:4, 2017, pp.513–28, h ps://doi.o g/10.25222/la .85; Ki kA. Hawkins e al., eds, The
idea ional app oach o populism: concep , heo y, and analysis (London and New Yo k: Rou ledge, 2018).
12 Cas Mudde and C is óbal Ro i a Kal wasse , Populism: a e y sho in oduc ion (Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y
P ess, 2017).
13 Cas Mudde, ‘The populis Zei geis ’, Go e nmen and Opposi ion 39:4, 2004, pp.541–63 a p.543, h ps://doi.
o g/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x.
14 See in his ega d wo speci ic con ibu ions o his special sec ion: Emmy Eklundh, F ank S engel and Tho -
s en Wojczewski, ‘Le populism and o eign policy: Be nie Sande s and Podemos’, In e na ional A ai s 100:5,
2024, pp.1899–1918, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiae137; and Rub ick Biegon and So aya Hamdaoui, ‘An i-
populism and he T ump auma in US o eign policy’, In e na ional A ai s 100:5, 2024, pp. 1857–75, h ps://
doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiae174.
15 He e, see Michael I. Magcami and A ies A. A ugay, ‘Explaining populis secu i iza ion and Rod igo
Du e e’s an i-es ablishmen Philippine o eign policy’, In e na ional A ai s 100:5, 2024, pp. 877–97, h ps://
doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiad248; and Monika B usenbauch Meislo á and Angelos Ch yssogelos, ‘The ambiguous
impac o populis ade discou ses on he in e na ional economic o de ’, In e na ional A ai s 100:5, 2024,
pp.1941–57, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiad296.
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expec a ions and s ill allow o a ia ion in he populism unde ques ion. We hus
di e en ia e populis s by ocusing on how au ho i a ian hey a e. This choice is
based on he obse a ion ha in he cu en wa e o populism, he hin ideology
o an i-eli ism and people-cen ism is mos ly—bu no always—combined wi h
ideological ai s ha a e cha ac e is ic o he au ho i a ian o communi a ian
pole o a new clea age in mode n socie ies.16 In his iew, ‘au ho i a ian populism’
is d i ing he cu en wa e o populism and con ains a much hicke ideology.
I is mainly d i en by widesp ead dis us in poli ics and poli ical pa ies ha
has buil up om he 1960s onwa ds, as well as by dissa is ac ion wi h he libe al
policies p omo ed by non-majo i a ian ins i u ions like cen al banks, cons i u-
ional cou s and in e na ional o ganiza ions. Au ho i a ian populism combines
an i-eli ism and people-cen ism, he cons i u i e componen s o populis hin-
cen ed ideology, wi h na ionalism, majo i a ianism and decisionism.17 This
unde s anding o au ho i a ian populism includes populis s such as Venezuela’s
Hugo Chá ez and Nicolás Madu o, as well as some leade s o le is pa ies in
wes e n Eu ope wi h a s ong exclusiona y p og amme. The e a e, howe e , some
pa ies and p og ammes on he le ha may build on populis discou se, pe o -
mance and s yle bu can ha dly be desc ibed as au ho i a ian populis s in idea ional
e ms.18 Tha said, ou ocus on au ho i a ian populis s does no exclude o he
populis s om ou s udy on he in e na ional e ec s o his phenomenon. Ins ead,
we look a he a ie y o populisms in ecen imes by aking ully au ho i a ian
populis s as he highes alue o a con inuous a iable. Ou basic expec a ion is
ha his a ia ion leads o di e ences in o eign policy, i s ela ed decision-making
and i s impac on he in e na ional o de .
Such an app oach also allows us o look a a ia ion o e ime. While populis s
claim he need o hea he people (ins ead o he eli es), au ho i a ian populism
in powe goes hand in hand wi h he weakening o democ a ic ins i u ions. We
can hus expec populis leade ships wi h longs anding go e nmen al unc ions o
become inc easingly au ho i a ian o e ime. Au ho i a ian populis s may e ol e
om a social mo emen o a pa y compe ing o powe , o om a pa y o a
go e nmen ha aims a unde mining he libe al p inciples on which democ acy
depends and—in he mos ex eme case— om such a go e nmen o an au ho i-
a ian egime.19 Indeed, in he long un, populis go e nmen s a e mo e likely o
eshape democ a ic ins i u ions by unde mining he sepa a ion o powe s, making
16 Nadia U bina i, ‘Poli ical heo y o populism’, Annual Re iew o Poli ical Science, ol.22, 2019, pp.111–27,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1146/annu e -polisci-050317-070753; Ingleha and No is, ‘T ump, B exi , and he ise o
populism’; A min Schä e and Michael Zü n, The democ a ic eg ession: he poli ical causes o au ho i a ian populism
(Camb idge,UK: Poli y, 2023).
17 Zü n, ‘How non-majo i a ian ins i u ions make silen majo i ies ocal’.
18 This nuance is inco po a ed in some o he a icles in his special sec ion. Podemos, discussed in Eklundh e al.,
‘Le populism and o eign policy’, may be such a case, as may Sy iza in Philip Giu lando and Ca la Mon ele-
one, ‘Ins i u ional change, so e eign is con es a ion and he limi s o populism: e idence om sou he n
Eu ope’, In e na ional A ai s 100: 5, 2024, pp. 2047–67, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiae058; and Mexican
p esiden And és Manuel López Ob ado in Débo ah Ba os Leal Fa ias, Guilhe me Casa ões and DanielF.
Wajne , ‘Populis in e na ional (dis)o de ? Lessons om wo ld o de isions in La in Ame ican populism’,
In e na ional A ai s 100:5, 2024, pp.2003–24, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiae179.
19 See also And ew A a o and JeanL. Cohen, Populism and ci il socie y: he challenge o cons i u ional democ acy
(Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y P ess, 2022).
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all ins i u ions pliable o hei will, in il a ing hem wi h loyalis s and poli ical
appoin ees by inc easingly con olling he media and, ul ima ely, by supp essing
opposi ion o ces.20 F om his pe spec i e, populism—a genuinely democ a ic
phenomenon pe se—is o en conside ed o p omo e democ a ic backsliding and
o ha e he po en ial o ans o m in o au ho i a ianism o e ime.21 This all
concu s wi h he cen aliza ion and pe sonaliza ion o poli ical powe , de i ed
om populis s’ peculia unde s anding o ep esen a ion as ‘embodimen ’ o he
popula will,22 as well as wi h he an i-plu alism ha eme ges om populis s’
claim o being he only possible ep esen a i es o he ‘ ue people’.23
This implies ha he e ec s o populism a y no only ac oss di e en ypes,
bu also o e ime. In o he wo ds, his s udy d aws on he unde s anding ha
he longe au ho i a ian populis s s ay in powe , he mo e we would expec
an e ec no only on domes ic poli ics, bu also on o eign policy. Ce ainly,
we mus ecognize ha no all populis s espouse e hnona ionalis ideologies o
ha e hollowed ou decision-making p ocedu es and democ a ic ins i u ions o
he same ex en . We can expec he au ho i a ian componen o populism o be
mo e o less p onounced, depending on a se ies o exogenous and endogenous
condi ions ha may cons ain hese au ho i a ian pa e ns. This also ela es o
populis s’ du a ion in o ice: he weakening o democ a ic ins i u ions does no
happen o e nigh , and democ a ic backsliding unde populis go e nmen s will
play ou mo e in ensely as ime passes, modi ying he p e-exis ing checks and
balances.24
Expec a ions abou he in e na ional impac o populism
This lea es us, he e o e, wi h a key ques ion, namely: how does populism, in i s mo e
o less au ho i a ian a ian s, a ec o eign policy and in e na ional poli ics o e ime? In he
ollowing, we de elop a se o expec a ions ha se es as an o e a ching ame-
wo k o he analysis o he in e na ional e ec s o populism in he con ibu ions
o his special sec ion. We employ h ee b oad expec a ions ha will guide he
analysis in hose a icles, acco ding o he h ee g oups o e ec s men ioned abo e
(poli ics, policies and in e na ional poli ies).
Expec a ion 1: All populis s in powe will change he p ocesses o o eign policy decision-
making, aiming a cen alizing and pe sonalizing o eign policy o some deg ee. The e ec
inc eases wi h au ho i a ian populis s and o e ime.
20 U bina i, ‘Poli ical heo y o populism’; Jan-We ne Mülle , Wha is populism? (London: Penguin, 2017);
Anna G zymala-Busse, ‘Conclusion: he global o ces o populism’, Poli y 51:4, 2019, pp.718–23, h ps://doi.
o g/10.1086/705322; Kim Lane Scheppele, ‘Au oc a ic legalism’, Uni e si y o Chicago Law Re iew 85:2, 2018,
pp.545–84.
21 TakisS. Pappas, Populism and libe al democ acy: a compa a i e and heo e ical analysis (Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y
P ess, 2019); Ku Weyland, ‘La in Ame ica’s au ho i a ian d i : he h ea om he populis le ’, Jou nal o
Democ acy 24:3, 2013, pp.18–32, h ps://doi.o g/10.1353/jod.2013.0045.
22 U bina i, ‘Poli ical heo y o populism’.
23 Mülle , Wha is populism?.
24 Pappas, Populism and libe al democ acy, Le i sky and Zibla , How democ acies die.
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This expec a ion conce ns he poli ics dimension ou lined abo e. Being an i-eli is
by de ini ion, all populis s will be ex emely scep ical o adi ional o eign policy
eli es, mos no ably diploma s. They will he e o e end o ma ginalize o eign
minis ies, diploma ic echelons and expe ad ise s.25 Gi en populis leade s’ claim
o embody he popula will, o eign policy will also become mo e pe sonalized.
The populis leade and hei inne ci cle (o en wi h amilial ies) is mo e o en
a he helm o bo h he coun y’s p i a e and public diplomacy, which includes
os e ing he cul o leade ship among egional and global audiences and pa on–
clien ela ions wi h ansna ional ne wo ks.26
Bo h cen aliza ion and pe sonaliza ion can be expec ed o in ensi y as populis
go e nmen s become mo e au ho i a ian—indeed, decisionism en ails he no ion
ha he e is no need o poli ical p ocedu es and delibe a ions. Highly au ho i-
a ian populis go e nmen s will s ongly ely on leade -le el mee ings and
decisions in hei o eign policy, en i ely sidelining con en ional bu eauc a ic
p ocedu es. Since hey pu emphasis on di ec ep esen a ion by populis leade s,27
hey can also be expec ed o a oid he pa icipa ion o ansna ional ci il socie y
in he p ocesses o o mula ing and implemen ing o eign policy. Fu he mo e,
o he go e nmen s ha in e ac wi h populis s in powe —and especially wi h
au ho i a ian populis s, who a e in e na ionally pe cei ed as muscula , p oac-
i e and success ul—a e mo e likely o end up adap ing o such changed diplo-
ma ic p ac ices a e lea ning om he legi ima ion gains o hei in e na ional
pe o mances.28 We, he e o e, expec all populis go e nmen s o cen alize and
pe sonalize o eign policy decision-making, and o do so in mo e ex eme ways
acco ding o how au ho i a ian he populis go e nmen is.
Expec a ion 2: All populis s in powe will end o emphasize na ional so e eign y in o eign
policy. The e ec inc eases wi h au ho i a ian populis s and o e ime.
This expec a ion ocuses on he dimension o policies: ha is, on he in oduc-
ion o ac ual changes in he o eign policy cou se o a coun y unde populis s
in powe . Gene ally speaking, populis s will claim o go e n o he ‘people’
na owly de ined and o be he only de ende s o he good and i uous ‘will o
he people’.29 This will con ibu e o inducing hem o pu g ea emphasis on he
no ion o popula so e eign y;30 bu hey will possibly also be less amenable o
coope a ing in in e na ional nego ia ions and seeking a comp omise in in e na-
ional dispu es as compa ed o non-populis go e nmen s, gi en hei endency
o see he wo ld in dualis ic, Manichean e ms.31
25 Des adi and Plagemann, ‘Populism and IR’; Ch is ian Lequesne, ‘Populis go e nmen s and ca ee diploma s
in he EU: he challenge o poli ical cap u e’, Compa a i e Eu opean Poli ics, ol.19, 2021, pp.779–95, h ps://
doi.o g/10.1057/s41295-021-00261-6.
26 Wajne , ‘Explo ing he o eign policies o populis go e nmen s’, pp.660–63.
27 See Zü n, ‘How non-majo i a ian ins i u ions make silen majo i ies ocal’.
28 Wajne , ‘The populis way ou ’, p.429.
29 Mülle , Wha is populism?, p.3.
30 See Tho s en Wojczewski, The in e -and ansna ional poli ics o populism: o eign policy, iden i y and popula so e eign y
(Cham, Swi ze land: Palg a e Macmillan, 2023); Co ina Laca us, Gus a Meibaue and Geo g Lö lmann, eds,
Poli ical communica ion and pe o ma i e leade ship: populism in in e na ional poli ics (Cham, Swi ze land: Sp inge , 2023).
31 Hawkins and Ro i a Kal wasse , ‘The idea ional app oach o populism’, p.516.
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A he same ime, exis ing esea ch on o eign policy implemen a ion among
populis go e nmen s has e ealed a gap be ween discou se and policy and a
co esponding coexis ence o con on a ional he o ic and p agma ism in popu-
lis s’ policy-making in ields such as secu i y, inance and ade.32 Acco ding
o And ew Mo a csik, despi e hei deep c i icism o he cu en in e na ional
o de mos igh -wing populis pa ies in Eu ope may be ‘mo e ba k han bi e’ in
e ms o o eign policy, while libe al democ a ic socie ies show mo e esilience
in con on ing such populis challenges han p e iously hough .33 Thick ideolo-
gies a e pa icula ly impo an in explaining hese a ia ions.34 While he co e
populis ca ego ies o ‘people’ and ‘eli es’ a e, as emp y signi ie s, ex emely ague
and malleable (and he e o e unc ional o poli ical p agma ism), he o e lap wi h
o he ca ego ies ha o igina e in hick ideologies (usually g ounded on e hnici y,
eligion, class, and so on) p o ide mo e igid bounda ies o he de ini ion o he
‘people’. In o he wo ds, he hick ideologies ha a e combined wi h populism
help populis s speci y and de ine who belongs o he ‘people’ and who cons i u es
he ‘eli e’. Thus, le -wing populis s will conside he ‘people’ o encompass he
wo king classes and ma ginalized social g oups, while e hnona ionalis populis s
will de ine he ‘people’ as he membe s o an e hnic majo i y (e.g. Hindus in he
case o Hindu na ionalis s in India). This can be expec ed o ha e implica ions o
he con en o o eign policies.
Gi en he p ecise ea u es o au ho i a ian populism, he mo e au ho i a ian a
populis go e nmen is, he mo e i will be scep ical o any limi a ion o na ional
so e eign y, whe he in e nal o ex e nal. E hnona ionalism and majo i a ianism,
ela ed o he claim ha he people a e always igh , will also ha e implica ions o
populis s’ app oach owa ds in e na ional esponsibili y: he mo e au ho i a ian a
populis go e nmen , he mo e i will be inclined o deny his o ical esponsibili-
ies, o example conce ning clima e change o his o ical w ongdoing. E hnon-
a ionalis hick ideology, which a he domes ic le el leads o he exclusion o
mino i ies no belonging o he ‘ ue people’, will lead o a mo e es ic i e mig a-
ion policy.35 Mo eo e , he no ion ha he people’s will co esponds o ha o a
silen majo i y cons ained by indi idual and mino i y igh s can be expec ed o
lead o a ejec ion o human igh s and in e na ional law.36
32 See Des adi and Plagemann, ‘Populism and IR’, pp.717–23; S ephan Fouque and Klaus B umme , ‘P o il-
ing he pe sonali y o populis o eign policy make s: a leade ship ai analysis,’ Jou nal o In e na ional Rela-
ions and De elopmen , ol.26, 2023, pp.1–29, h ps://doi.o g/10.1057/s41268-022-00270-2; Amy Skonieczny,
‘Emo ions and poli ical na a i es: populism, T ump and ade’, Poli ics and Go e nance 6:4, 2018, pp.62–72,
h ps://doi.o g/10.17645/pag. 6i4.1574; DanielF. Wajne and Philip Giu lando, ‘In oduc ion o populis
o eign policy (PFP)’, in Giu lando and Wajne , Populis o eign policy, pp.1–35 a pp.2–4.
33 And ew Mo a csik, ‘Mo e ba k han bi e? The e ec o ex eme- igh pa ies on o eign policy’, Ame ican
Academy Lec u e a F eie Uni e si ä Be lin, 11Decembe 2023.
34 Ve beek and Zaslo e, ‘Populism and o eign policy’; Des adi and Plagemann, ‘Populism and IR’, pp.712–14.
35 See o example Philipp Lu z, ‘Va ia ion in policy success: adical igh populism and mig a ion policy’, Wes
Eu opean Poli ics 42:3, 2019, pp.517–44, h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/01402382.2018.1504509; Alexande Rossell
Hayes and Ca olyn Ma ie Dudek, ‘How adical igh -wing populism has shaped ecen mig a ion policy in
Aus ia and Ge many’, Jou nal o Immig an & Re ugee S udies 18:2, 2020, pp.133–50, h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/1
5562948.2019.1587130.
36 In his special sec ion, his is discussed in pa icula in he a icle by Monika Ba hwal-Da a and Shwe a Singh
(‘Populism and o eign policy: India’s e ugee policy owa ds he Rohingya’, In e na ional A ai s 100:5, 2024,
pp.1983–2002, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ia/iiae173); and ha by Ba os Leal Fa ias and colleagues.
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E en among populis leade s who ini ially pu sue p agma ic policies, he
ha dening o au ho i a ian p ac ices a e long pe iods in powe can be expec ed
o concu wi h a adicaliza ion in hei o eign policies ac oss mul iple hema ic
a eas: in o he wo ds, e isionism.37 The combina ion o e hnona ional, majo i-
a ian and decisionis belie s wi h sel -assigned oles as leade s o ci iliza ional
clashes, along wi h nos algic claims o ‘ es o a ion’ o an impe ial pas and a
decla ed p e e ence o adical e olu iona y ends, makes au ho i a ian populis s
mo e likely o dis ance hemsel es om he policies o p e ious go e nmen s in
ields such as secu i y, ade, human igh s, in e na ional aid o he en i onmen .38
Expec a ion 3: Populis s will inc easingly end o con es in e na ional ins i u ions and he
libe al in e na ional o de he mo e powe hey gain and he mo e au ho i a ian hey become.
When i comes o he impac o populism on s a es’ o eign policy s ances owa ds
in e na ional ins i u ions ( he in e na ional poli y dimension), we expec ha i
will be mainly he cu en au ho i a ian wa e o populism which is de imen al
o mul ila e alism in he long e m. Gene ally speaking, we expec au ho i a ian
populis s o be inc easingly scep ical o and ocal agains in e na ional ins i u-
ions, which, like in e media e ins i u ions a he domes ic le el, a e conside ed
o s and be ween he leade and he people.39 Pa icula ly whe e a high deg ee
o au ho i y has al eady been ceded o in e na ional ins i u ions, as in he case
o global go e nance ins i u ions and egional o ganiza ions wi h sup ana ional
powe s, populis s will use he issue o poli iciza ion and mobiliza ion.40 Indeed,
he pe cei ed inc easing in luence o ‘in e na ional bu eauc acies’ is o en consid-
e ed a d i e o he eme gence o au ho i a ian populism,41 as hese bu eauc acies
a e seen as ansna ional eli es de ached om he needs o he people.42 A he
same ime, au ho i a ian populis s a e iden i ied as being pa icula ly a e se o
hose ins i u ions ha embody he co e alues o he LIO.43
Con empo a y au ho i a ian populis leade ships, ne e heless, ha e shown a
g ea e endency no only o e ode and delegi imize exis ing in e na ional ins i-
u ions, bu also o ec ea e and legi imize ‘al e na i e’ ins i u ions ha be e
i hei iden i ies, in e es s and ideas.44 In his sense, we also expec ha he mo e
37 See Jenne, ‘Populism, na ionalism and e isionis o eign policy’, pp.329–32; DanielW. D ezne , RonaldR.
K ebs and Randall Schwelle , ‘The end o g and s a egy: Ame ica mus hink small’, Fo eign A ai s 99:3,
2020, pp. 107–17, h ps://www. o eigna ai s.com/a icles/wo ld/2020-04-13/end-g and-s a egy. (Unless
o he wise no ed a poin o ci a ion, all URLs ci ed in his a icle we e accessible on 23July 2024.).
38 See Roge s B ubake , ‘Be ween na ionalism and ci iliza ionism: he Eu opean populis momen in compa a-
i e pe spec i e’, E hnic and Racial S udies 40:8, 2017, pp.1191–1226, h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/01419870.2017.1
294700; Jelena Subo ić, ‘An isemi ism in he global populis in e na ional’, The B i ish Jou nal o Poli ics and
In e na ional Rela ions 24:3, 2022, pp.458–74, h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/13691481211066970; Ihsan Yilmaz and
Nicholas Mo ieson, Religions and he global ise o ci iliza ional populism (Singapo e: Palg a e Macmillan, 2023).
39 Johannes Plagemann and Sand a Des adi, ‘Populism and o eign policy: he case o India’, Fo eign Policy
Analysis 15:2, 2019, pp.283–301 a p.287, h ps://doi.o g/10.1093/ pa/o y010.
40 See Michael Zü n, A heo y o global go e nance: au ho i y, legi imacy, and con es a ion (Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y
P ess, 2018), pp.137–67.
41 Michael Zü n, ‘Global go e nance and legi imacy p oblems’, Go e nmen and Opposi ion 39:2, 2004, pp.260–87
a p.285, h ps://doi.o g/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00123.x.
42 Des adi and Plagemann, ‘Populism and IR’, p.710.
43 Söde baum, Spandle and Paccia di, Con es a ions o he libe al in e na ional o de .
44 DanielF. Wajne and Luis Ronige , ‘Populism and ansna ional p ojec ion: he legi ima ion s a egies o Pink
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o some yea s a e he Fi s Wo ld Wa we e inc easingly challenged. The
o eign policies o he ascis and communis challenge s o ha pe iod may also
poin o some signi ican simila i ies o oday’s o eign policies; o ins ance, he
deepening o ansna ional solida i ies and emo ional pola iza ion in in e na ional
in e ac ions. A ca e ul his o ical compa ison would allow us o unde s and he
cu en wa e o populism be e , in e ms o i s his o ical meaning, and would
also allow o long- e m lessons ha may guide con empo a y esponses o he
cu en populis challenge.
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