Albuque que, Edua do da Mo a e
A icle
Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es on a dialogue
among poli ical economy, e olu iona y economics and
physics
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Associazione Economia ci ile, Rome
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Albuque que, Edua do da Mo a e (2024) : Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es
on a dialogue among poli ical economy, e olu iona y economics and physics, PSL Qua e ly Re iew,
ISSN 2037-3643, Associazione Economia ci ile, Rome, Vol. 77, Iss. 310, pp. 247-261,
h ps://doi.o g/10.13133/2037-3643/18651
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ol. 77 n. 310 (Sep embe 2024)
Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es on a dialogue
among poli ical economy, e olu iona y
economics and physics
EDUARDO DA MOTTA E ALBUQUERQUE*
Abs ac :
Complex sys ems may be a use ul me hodological ool o
add ess “challenges o esea ch in de elopmen ”. The e is
a huge and g owing li e a u e on complex sys ems and
economic heo y ha migh be ela ed o ea ly in ui ions
o classical economis s on he wo kings o capi alis
economies. Kond a ie and Slu sky ha e wo ked wi h
ea u es o complex sys ems – how echnological
e olu ions change he sys em. This may unde lie one
peculia i y o capi alism – a complex sys em ha changes
i s le el o complexi y o e ime. The inclusion o he
pe iphe y b oadens i s u bulen na u e: a complex
sys em ha combines egions wi h sel -o ganiza ion
dynamics – he cen e – and egions wi h andom
beha io – he pe iphe y.
Cedepla (Cen e o De elopmen and Regional Planning) –
UFMG (Fede al Uni e si y o Minas Ge ais),
email: albuqu[email p o ec ed].b
How o ci e his a icle:
Albuque que E.M. (2024), “Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es
on a dialogue among poli ical economy, e olu iona y economics
and physics”, PSL Qua e ly Re iew, 77 (310), pp. 247-261.
DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.13133/2037-3643/18651
JEL codes:
P160, O33, B510
Keywo ds:
echnological e olu ions, pe iphe y, complex sys ems,
me amo phoses o capi alism, simula ion models
Jou nal homepage:
h p: //www.pslqua e ly e iew.in o
Fo any economis , he simple eading o any in oduc o y a icle on complex sys ems may show
many iden i ies wi h he ope a ion o mode n economies, o mode n capi alism.
1
Nussenz eig
(1999), o ins ance, summa izes a complex sys em as ollows: 1) i is a dynamic sys em, in
* A d a e sion o his pape was p esen ed a he in e na ional wo kshop “S uc u al change, social inclusion and
en i onmen al sus ainabili y: new pe spec i es and polices in economic de elopmen ” – Plena y Con e ence: “S a e o
he a and challenges o esea ch in de elopmen ” (Mon e ideo, 7 Sep embe 2023). I would like o hank Ca los
Bianchi o his in i a ion o pa icipa e in his in e na ional wo kshop, José Gab iel Po cile o his commen s in ha
session, he pa icipan s o ques ions and obse a ions ha con ibu ed o he pape ’s imp o emen , and Leona do
Cos a Ribei o o his commen s on an ea lie d a . Financial suppo om CNPq is acknowledged (G an numbe
307516/2022-9). This pape is one ou come o a long ela ionship wi h wo physicis s: Leona do Cos a Ribei o (UFMG)
and Amé ico T is ão Be na des (UFOP). In he i s hal o 2023, a he Depa men o Economics, UFMG, Leona do Cos a
Ribei o and I o ganized a cou se on Complex Sys ems and Economic Theo y – an oppo uni y o me o lis en and lea n
e en mo e om him. The ongoing esea ch o Lau a Soa es and B uno C. Melo o hei disse a ions and my academic
in e ac ions wi h hem ha e also been pe manen sou ces o lea ning o me. The usual disclaime holds.
1
This pape is a coun e pa o Ribei o (2022), which is a e y clea a icle ha summa izes Ribei o’s ajec o y, a leas
since his Mas e ’s deg ee. I sea ches o complex sys ems and eaches a ich in e p e a ion o how he global capi alis
sys em was impac ed in 2020 by a i us ha caused a global ecession and a sequence o e en s, cap u ed by he
di e en impac s on he a e o p o i s o coun ies, i ms and sec o s. Ribei o’s pape is an exposi ion o a physicis
looking o he economy as a complex sys em. This pape is he a emp o an economis o look o physics and i s lessons
on complex sys ems.
Special issue on s uc u al change, social inclusion, and en i onmen al sus ainabili y
248 Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es on a dialogue among poli ical economy…
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
pe manen e olu ion and o med by a huge numbe o uni ies; 2) each uni y in e ac s wi h o he s,
he sys em is open and in e ac s wi h a b oade en i onmen ; 3) each uni eac s o signs ha i
ecei es om o he s; 4) he e is lea ning, he sys em is adap i e; 5) he e is andomness; 6) he e
is eme gen o de , he sys em sel -o ganizes; 6) he sys em is hie a chical; 7) he e a e mul iple
a ac o s (pp. 11-12).
F om his e y basic imp ession, his pape sugges s ha complex sys ems may be a use ul
ool o add ess “challenges o esea ch in de elopmen ” – he opic o his con e ence.
A speci ic challenge, wi hin a b oade p og am o esea ch, is how o model he making o
global capi alism, including i s pe iphe y as pa o he whole p ocess. A conjec u e ha unde lies
he esea ch in which I ha e been pa icipa ing is ha he capi alis economy migh ha e e y
peculia p ope ies as a complex sys em, p ope ies ha migh become e en mo e complica ed as
he opic o he pe iphe y is included in he agenda.
In physics, he o igins o elabo a ion on complex sys ems may be iden i ied in he 1950s
(Golden eld and Kadano , 1999, pp. 88-89), and he de elopmen o his ield may be shown by
he 2021 Nobel P ize. As a e y ecen de elopmen , complex sys ems ha e been inc easingly
explo ed and used in economics. Gi en a a - om-equilib ium dynamics, a ple ho a o nonlinea
phenomena and ac al p ope ies, i makes sense o es ablish a dialogue be ween economics and
physics in his subjec . And o esea ch in de elopmen , his is a po en ial and e ile dialogue –
he discom o o he ield o de elopmen wi h he cons ain s o equilib ium has e y old oo s
(Meie and See s, 1984; Meie , 1987).
This pape p esen s he app oach ha ou esea ch g oup is cu en ly wo king on.
2
I is
o ganized in i e sec ions. The i s sec ion p esen s a sho li e a u e e iew, o gi e an idea o
he size o he communi y o esea ches in economics ha a e cu en ly explo ing issues ela ed
o complex sys ems (o complexi y) – and he mosaic o di e en app oaches ha connec
complex sys ems and economic heo y. The second sec ion summa izes p e ious in ui ions o
classical poli ical economy ha an icipa e elemen s o complex sys ems, e iews he eme gence
o complex sys ems in physics – and how e olu iona y economics has lea ned and in e ac ed wi h
his new app oach – and sugges s one possible (and addi ional) o m o dialogue be ween
economics and physics a ound complex sys ems. The hi d sec ion, based on his ini ial
de elopmen , explo es how an in e p e a ion o economic long- e m dynamic inspi ed by
Kond a ie may, h ough a dialogue wi h Slu sky and Mandelb o , be an a enue o esea ch. The
ou h sec ion, based on p elimina y esul s om he esea ch agenda o ou g oup, shows how,
a he capi alis cen e , i s dynamic unco e s a e y peculia complex sys em, as Golden eld and
Kadano (1999) ha e sugges ed. The i h sec ion looks o he pe iphe y o he capi alis sys em
and in es iga es new speci ici ies o complex sys ems in economics – p elimina y s eps o he
inclusion o he pe iphe y in ou modelling e o . The conclusion esumes he e lec ion on he
“challenges o esea ch in de elopmen ”.
2
The esea ch g oup ha has been wo king wi h opics ela ed o complex sys ems includes Leona do Cos a Ribei o,
Amé ico T is ão Be na des, Ped o Mendes Lou ei o, Leona do Gomes de Deus, Jo ge Noguei a de Pai a B i o, Má cia
Siquei a Rapini and Leand o Al es Sil a. Impo an pa icipan s a e g adua e s uden s supe ised by hose esea che s,
especially B uno Ca a a Melo, Lau a Soa es, and Lídia Magya .
E. da Mo a e Albuque que 249
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
1. Li e a u e e iew: complex sys ems and economic heo y
The li e a u e on complex sys ems, o complexi y, and economic heo y is huge and g owing.
3
The e a e many o ms o summa ize he di e se s ands o his li e a u e. The e a e excellen
pape s dealing wi h complex sys ems as a chap e o he his o y o economic hough (Fon ana,
2010). The in e ac ion be ween physics and economics is wo-way, as shown in a si e o ganized
by Na u e Physics Re iew (2021): “ om economics o physics”. This se ies p esen s pape s om
A hu (2021) and Hidalgo (2021) ha show he di e si y o app oaches in his g owing ield.
Melo (2024) p esen s a e y b oad e iew, showing how di e en app oaches in economics
a e building connec ions wi h complex sys ems. Fo example, Foley (2003) a icula es classical
poli ical economy, om Smi h o Ma x, wi h complex sys ems; Ca doso and Lima (2008) a icula e
Keynes and complex sys ems, and e olu iona y economics has many links o complex sys ems;
and Elsne (2017) p esen s e iew on complexi y.
Fo his pape , he e is a special in e es in he San a Fé Ins i u e, gi en i s o iginal objec i e
o o ganize a dialogue be ween economics and physics (Ande son e al, 1988). The e o e, chap e s
p epa ed by A ow (1988) and by Ande son (1988) a e impo an e e ences o he p oblems
iden i ied in economic heo y hen, and o he po en ial o complex sys ems o o e al e na i es
o equilib ium as an o ganizing concep o economics. The his o y o he San a Fé Ins i u e, as
p esen ed by Fon ana (2010), has di e en phases ela ed o di e en ways o deal wi h
equilib ium and i s cons ain s on economic heo izing.
The ela ionship be ween e olu iona y economis s and complex sys ems is an impo an
chap e o his his o y. F om he e olu iona y economics side, he e is Dosi (1997, p. 1531)
sugges ing building blocks o e olu iona y economics and highligh ing he need o unde s and
agg ega e phenomena as “eme gen p ope ies” – an explici inco po a ion o concep s o complex
sys ems in he heo e ical ounda ions o e olu iona y economics. F om he side o he San a Fé
Ins i u e, he e is A ow, who men ions Nelson and Win e (A ow, 1988, p. 280) and “Eu opean
s uden s o he economics o inno a ion” (A ow, 1988, p. 281); he e is a e e ence om
Ande son (1997, p. 566) o Dosi and Win e , who “ha e sugges ed e olu iona y models o he
economy”, and he e is a e e ence in Fon ana (2010, p. 180) o a esea ch g oup on echnological
inno a ion c ea ed a he ins i u e in he 1988-1996 pe iod, a g oup wi h Dosi, Male ba and
O senigo.
B ian A hu has a speci ic ole, as he is an in e sec ion be ween hose wo app oaches since
he la e 1980s. He pa icipa ed in wo pionee ing publica ions, as a con ibu o (A hu , 1988a)
o he book om he San a Fé Ins i u e, The economy as an e ol ing complex sys em (Ande son e
al., 1988), and as a con ibu o (A hu , 1988b) o he i s book o o ganize he e olu iona y
app oach, Technical change and economic heo y (Dosi e al., 1988).
2. In ui ions om classical economis s and he eme gence o complex sys ems
The e y syn he ic li e a u e e iew p esen ed in he p e ious sec ions is enough o show how
classical economy had in ui ions on he complex na u e o economies and hose in ui ions opened
possibili ies o dialogues explo ed by Foley, Ca doso and Lima, Dosi and he o he s. Louçã (2010,
3
A sea ch o he WebO Science shows 1,065,903 esul s o “economics” (WC=economics), wi h 7,936 esul s i we ocus
he sea ch on “complex sys ems” o “complexi y” (TS=“complex sys em*” OR TS=complexi y). The sea ch o
“economics and complex sys ems” shows 776 esul s. One pape in his lis is om pa icipan s in his con e ence:
Robe and Yoguel (2016).
250 Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es on a dialogue among poli ical economy…
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
p. 105) explo es hose in ui ions om Schumpe e and Keynes, and no es ha “bo h we e
discussing complexi y and ye hey had no he ools o unde s and complexi y”. As indica ed in
he in oduc ion o his pape and as p esen ed in his sec ion (see below), he de elopmen o
hese ools, in physics ini ially, is a pos -1950s achie emen .
These in ui ions can be ead in o he in e p e a ions. Fo example, A hu (2021, p. 136)
accep s his in e p e a ion om Louçã (2010) and men ions “ o e unne s” and says his app oach
“owes much o ea lie wo k by Tho s en Veblen, He be Simon and F ied ich Hayek”.
The plu ali y o o e unne s in he his o y o economic hough is no casual. Since economies,
and mo e speci ically capi alis economies, a e complex sys ems, e e y esea che who was ying
o unde s and hei dynamics was seeing elemen s o hem. The e o e, in ui ions on complex
sys ems a e e y common.
Adam Smi h (1776) is ce ainly a hinke who eached di e se pe cep ions o elemen s o
complex sys ems. One is an elabo a ion on posi i e eedbacks his classical o mula ion o he
ela ionship be ween he ma ke , he di ision o labo and weal h. As he di ision o labo
de eloped, p oduc i i y and p oduc ion inc eased, wi h an impac on ma ke s ha g ew, a g ow h
ha made oom o a u he inc ease in he di ision o labo : he posi i e eedback be ween
ma ke size and di ision o labo . Ano he pe cep ion migh be he ac al na u e o he di ision
o labo , as i began om one pe son doing he wo k ha would be la e di ided among h ee
o he s, and his di ision would be ollowed by u he subdi ision, a p ocess ha ep oduces i sel
again and again.
Ka l Ma x (1867) also has elabo a ions ha con ains elemen s o complex sys ems. Examples
may be his elabo a ion on how money ans o ms in capi al, a p ocess ha ep oduces i sel again
and again, in a ac al-like o m. His elabo a ion on he ole o supe -p o i s and hei ela ionship
wi h new o ms o p oduc ion may be ead as a simple ule ha o ganizes he whole sys em,
making he sys em unde go a mechanism o pe manen change.
These commen s on classical economy only sugges ha he lis o o e unne s in he his o y
o economic hough may be ex ended e y b oadly – a e y in e es ing opic o u he esea ch.
The eme gence o “ ools o unde s and complexi y” is a p ocess ha occu s a e he 1950s.
Nussenz eig’s summa y (1999) is suppo ed by an agenda o esea ch in physics ha has i s ini ial
elabo a ion in he 1950s; his may be deduced om a sho his o y o physical ideas p esen ed in
a special issue o Science dedica ed o his opic. Golden eld and Kadano (1999), on “ he
de elopmen o complexi y in physics” ci e pape s om 1952, w i en by Tu ing, om 1967
w i en by Ka chalsly and Cu an, and om 1972 w i en by Ande son. The in luence and he
impo ance o his ield may be g asped by he Nobel P ize in Physics 2021, which was awa ded
“ o g oundb eaking con ibu ions o ou unde s anding o complex physical sys ems” (Nobel
P ize Commi ee, 2021).
In a e y simple de ini ion, Golden eld and Kadano (1999, p. 87) w i e: “complexi y means
ha we ha e s uc u e wi h a ia ions”. Ce ainly, economies also i his de ini ion. Howe e , he
au ho s wa n o di e ences in complexi y, as “each complex sys em is di e en ”. Fu he mo e,
hey highligh he speci ici ies “wi h complexi y in biological o economic si ua ions”.
These commen s p o oke an impo an esea ch ques ion: how o in es iga e he peculia i ies
o complexi y in economies? This ques ion leads us o ano he economis who had in ui ions on
economies as complex sys ems: Kond a ie .
E. da Mo a e Albuque que 251
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
3. Kond a ie , Slu sky and Mandelb o : supe posi ion o cycles as e idence o a complex
sys em?
Louçã (1999, p. 173) iden i ies he “ esilience o he esea ch p og am on long wa es”. He adds
ha , “mo e ecen ly, in he en i ely new amewo k o complexi y heo y, some o he s sugges ed
ha he long wa e could be hough o as he ep esen a ion o speci ic modes o en ainmen o
oscilla ions, eme ging om he complex na u e o economic p ocesses” (p. 173). One au ho
unco e ed by Louçã is Mandelb o (1987), who makes an explici e e ence o Kond a ie . In he
pa ag aph ha Louçã (1999, p. 173) ecommends o he eade , Mandelb o (1987, p. 126) w i es:
Fo example, le an economic ime se ies be gene a ed by a s a iona y s ochas ic p ocess a wi h a
con inuous spec um and a smoo h spec al densi y wi h no local maximum excep o a pole a he
equency ze o. Usually, he sample unc ions o such a p ocess seem o exhibi long Kond ia ie -
like cycles, upon which a e supe posed sho e cycles ha ecall o dina y business cycles, and so
on down o sho -pe iod wiggles much like he specula i e luc ua ions.
Mandelb o is a leading ma hema ician in his ield o complex sys ems and, among his many
seminal con ibu ions, his in es iga ions on economic dynamic a e pa h-c ea ing. His e lec ions
on he speci ici ies o economic dynamics a e insigh ul o e e y esea che in ol ed in complex
sys ems esea ch. One pape ha could be e y use ul o ou agenda is one in which he deals wi h
nonpe iodic cycles and e alua es he ela ionship be ween di e en p ocesses: “No ably,
economic ime se ies end o be cha ac e ized by he p esence o clea -cu bu no pe iodic ‘cycles’
o all concei able ‘pe iods’, sho , medium and long, whe e he la e means ‘compa able o he
leng h o he o al a ailable sample’, and whe e he dis inc ion be ween ‘long cycles’ and ‘ ends’
is e y uzzy” (Mandelb o , 1972, p. 260). In his pape , Mandelb o men ions “pionee ing
ema ks” by Adelman (1965) and G ange (1966): Adelman (1965) in es iga es long cycles using
Fou ie echniques,
4
and G ange (1966, p. 155) men ions “business cycles” o di e en
ampli udes, om Kond a ie o Ki chin.
5
In es iga ions on he supe posi ion o di e en cycles may be aced o Kond a ie and he
Moscow Ins i u e o Conjunc u e (F anco e al., 2022) – a line o in es iga ion ha migh ha e been
pu sued by Slu sky while wo king he e. In 1927, Slu sky published he i s e sion o his classic
pape on sou ces o cycles, esea ch on how di e en cycles o di e en du a ion may compose
b oade cycles. Slu sky ([1927] 1937, p. 107) summa ized his esea ch ques ion: “[ ]he p esence
o wa es o de ini e o de s, he long wa es emb acing decades, sho e cycles om app oxima ely
i e o en yea s in leng h, and inally he e y sho wa es, will always emain a ac begging o
explana ion”.
As is well known, Kond a ie (1926) o ganizes his elabo a ion on long cycles by s essing he
ole o echnical change as a sou ce o hose long- e m luc ua ions; “changes in echnology” a e a
key de e minan o hose long cycles (p. 49). Schumpe e (1911) is among he e e ences used by
Kond a ie , showing ha he had a o mula ion on how inno a ions we e clus e ed and how he
discon inuous na u e o inno a ion is ela ed o he cyclic pa e ns in capi alis economies.
Possibly ollowing ha line o hinking, Kond a ie always lis s di e en inno a ions as he
echnical changes behind each long cycle, inno a ions sp ead o e a ela i ely long pe iod o ime.
In he i s long cycle, Kond a ie men ions “a se ies o signi ican echnical in en ions”
in oduced be ween 1764 and 1795, o he second long cycle he lis s 19 in en ions be ween 1824
4
In he discussion o “empi ical esul s”, Adelman (1965, pp. 459-460) concludes ha “[ ]he e idence o he p esen
spec al analysis is no a all inconsis en wi h ce ain o he obse a ions on he exis ence o long cycles”.
5
G ange (1966, p. 150) sugges s ha “powe spec a” may be he “ ypical shape”.
252 Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es on a dialogue among poli ical economy…
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
and 1848, and o he hi d long cycle he e a e 25 in en ions be ween 1875 and 1898
(Kond a ie , 1926, pp. 39-40).
Each o hose di e en inno a ions may in e ac among each o he , gi ing ise o a
supe posi ion and an o e lapping o di e en economic impac s ha shape he la ge wa es. This
ype o o e lapping is desc ibed by Rosenbe g (1998, p. 180) in he con ex o he ou h long
wa e, om a heo e ical app oach ela ed o he concep o gene al-pu pose echnologies (GPT):
he ise o chemical enginee ing as a GPT is pa o he g ow h o he au omobile indus y, being
“insepa able om he his o y o pe oleum e ining” (ibid.). This ype o o e lapping has s ong
posi i e eedbacks ha migh compose a peculia summa ion o echnological causes in he
making o economic cycles.
The elabo a ion o Kond a ie has impo an in luence, s a ing wi h Schumpe e (1939) and
eaching con empo a y deba es wi h Louçã (1999) and F eeman and Louçã (2001). Kond a ie ’s
elabo a ion, beyond he ami ica ion h ough Slu sky and Mandelb o , has ano he in luence on
he app oach o complex sys ems: Pe ez (2002, 2010) ein e p e ed he oo s o long wa es and
sugges ed a didac ical ool o unde s and he in luences o impo an and adical inno a ions –
he big bangs a he oo o each long wa e. A hu (2015, pp. 17-22), discusses how each
echnological e olu ion impac s he whole economy; “ he economy in o ma ion” is he i le o
his sec ion and i makes an explici e e ence o Ca lo a Pe ez, a e e ence ha is epea ed in
A hu (2021, p. 141). A hu p esen s an “algo i hm” ha desc ibes a “sequence o e en s” ha
ans o ms he whole economy.
6
This “sequence o e en s” in ol es, in e alia, a ious posi i e
eedbacks among di e en and complemen a y echnologies.
4. Capi alism, a he cen e , as a e y peculia complex sys em
As classical poli ical economis s (Smi h, Ma x), Kond a ie and Schumpe e , and e olu iona y
economis s ha e pu o wa d, capi alism – in i s a ious s uc u es and phases – is a sys em in
pe manen change. Fu ado (2002) summa izes his unde s anding: me amo phoses o
capi alism.
Me amo phoses o capi alism may be unde s ood as mul idimensional p ocesses o
ins i u ional change, as new p oduc s, new p ocesses, new i ms, and new ins i u ions appea and
enew he sys em. All componen ins i u ions o mode n capi alism change, d i en by he
ela ionship be ween inno a ion and p o i , a key ela ionship ha o ganizes he whole sys ems;
he e, i is he engine o sel -o ganiza ion in capi alism, a consequence o ha dynamic a he hea
o he sys em.
In his dynamic he e is a combina ion be ween g ow h, new and mo e i ms, and new ma ke s
– wi h changes in hei o e all dynamics – ha makes he sys em di e en ; “mo e is di e en ”
(Ande son, 1972) and mo e complica ed (A hu , 2015, pp. 144-157).
7
C ises a e pa o he sys em´s dynamic, c ises o adjus men (F eeman and Pe ez, 1988),
momen s o he sys em’s ans o ma ion. The sys em is “ obus ” in he sense ha i does no
collapse, bu a e each c isis i esumes g ow h ans o med. A e each c isis, he e a e new
ins i u ions and new ules, leading o di e en phases and di e en a ie ies o capi alism o e
ime: me amo phoses o capi alism.
6
Possibly he i s “algo i hm” o desc ibe a echnological e olu ion s a ing a one single poin and de eloping h ough
o wa d and backwa d linkages o ans o m he whole economy was p esen ed by Ma x (1867, pp. 505-506).
7
Al hough A hu discusses he g ow h complexi y o e ime, Ribei o e al. (2017b) sugges ha he is alking abou
complica ion, meaning “di e si y” o “s uc u al deepening”.
E. da Mo a e Albuque que 253
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These lessons om he his o y o economic hough o igina ed he i s in es iga ions o ou
esea ch g oup, ocusing on he leading capi alis coun y, he Uni ed S a es (Ribei o e al., 2017a,
2017b). The in es iga ion on he USA begins wi h da a om 1870, app oxima ely he ime when
US GDP o e ook B i ish GDP (MPD, 2020). This ocus, which helps o unde s and he dynamic o
a leading capi alis coun y, misses one impo an ea u e: he US economy began assimila ing
echnology and knowledge a ailable om he leading coun y (Hamil on, 1791). The leade ship
o his complex sys em called capi alism is no s a ic: he US had a long ansi ion om imi a ion
o inno a ion (Rosenbe g, 1972). The p e ious leading coun y, he UK, also had a leng hy
ansi ion o hegemony, one ha included a long p ocess o lea ning om India, especially in
ex iles (Becke , 2014, pp. 49-50). These commen s highligh he ac ha he in e p e a ion o
he de elopmen o coun ies, e en de eloped coun ies, canno be made in isola ion. This is an
impo an issue o he modelling s a egy o ou esea ch g oup: how o include coun ies and
he knowledge lows among hem.
The da a used in ou in es iga ion we e p epa ed by Duménil and Lé y (2015), o he pe iod
be ween 1870 and 2010. The da a on he a e o p o i o he US we e analyzed h ough analy ical
ools widely used in physics – he Fou ie ans o m – o in es iga e hei beha io in he long
e m (Ribei o e al., 2017a). The a e o p o i is a syn he ic a iable ha can be in e p e ed as a
key indica o o he o e all beha io o he capi alis sys em, as i is a “syn hesis o mul iple
de e mina ions”. Unde an a e age p o i a e, he e is a u bulen p ocess ha in ol es a la ge
popula ion o i ms wi h hei indi idual p o i s, o losses, which agg ega e as di e en a es o
p o i acco ding o di e en economic sec o s and indus ies (Bain, 1956; Schmalensee, 1989).
These da a co e a long pe iod, wi h impo an s uc u al changes in he US economy, he
coun y om which h ee big bangs ha e o igina ed (Pe ez, 2010, p. 190): in 1882, elec ici y
(Edison’s Pea l S a ion); in 1908, he au omobile (Fo d’s model T); in 1971, he mic op ocesso
(In el). The impo an s uc u al changes a e: he eme gence o he mul idi isional i m be ween
he 1870s and he 1920s (Chandle , 1977); he ans o ma ions caused by changes du ing he
Fi s Wo ld Wa and a e (Langlois, 2023, pp. 101-132); he G ea Dep ession and he New Deal
(Langlois, 2023, pp. 186-263); he Second Wo ld Wa (Langlois, 2023, pp. 264-314); and he
subsequen ans o ma ions du ing he “Cold Wa ” (Mowe y and Rosenbe g, 1993).
The applica ion o Fou ie echniques o in es iga e he long- e m beha io o he US a e o
p o i unco e ed h ee indings.
The i s inding, as expec ed, is he iden i ica ion by he Fou ie analysis o he inge p in s o
a complex sys em: he “powe law eg ession” showing ha he “p o i a e cu e is a ac al” and
a 1/ α dis ibu ion (Ribei o e al., 2017a, pp. 294-295).
8
These esul s om he Fou ie analysis
show ha capi alism, a he cen e , is a sel -o ganized sys em.
The second inding migh con ibu e o discussions o long wa es in capi alis de elopmen ,
as he analysis using he Fou ie ans o m shows a mo e u bulen beha io in he cyclic dynamic
o he US economy han he 50-yea Kond a ie cycle o Schumpe e ’s h ee-cycle – combining
50-, 10-, and 3-yea cycles. Ribei o e al. (2017a, p. 296) show ha he e is an o e lapping o cycles
o many di e en equencies, he mo e impo an being he 23-, 20-, 35-, and 70-yea cycles.
9
S ill
mo e impo an han he 47-yea cycle a e many sho e cycles, wi h equencies below 20-yea s.
This second inding is e y ele an o ou esea ch agenda, as i enews he in e es in Slu sky’s
elabo a ion on cyclic pa e ns caused by he supe posi ion o di e en oscilla ions.
8
See Ribei o e al. (2017a, igu e 1, p. 294, and igu e 2, p. 295).
9
See Ribei o e al. (2017a, igu e 3, p. 295).
254 Complex sys ems: In oduc o y no es on a dialogue among poli ical economy…
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
The hi d inding con i ms he conjec u es o Ande son (1972) and o Golden eld and Kadano
(1999) on he peculia i ies o complexi y in economies. Ribei o e al. (2017b) in es iga e i he
le els o complexi y in he US economy a e he same in di e en pe iods. Using a echnique ha
employs mo ing 50-yea windows, he analysis h ough he decomposi ion o he Fou ie
ans o m shows ha he exponen s o he powe law eg ession change o e ime.
10
These
changes in he powe -law exponen s “indica e changes in he complexi y o he sys em” (Ribei o
e al., 2017b, p. 56).
11
This hi d inding shows he e y peculia na u e o capi alism, a he cen e ,
as a complex sys em, di e en ia ing i om o he le els: complex sys ems in he physical wo ld
do no show his p ope y – a leas , so a we ha e no ound e e ences ha show changes in he
le el o complexi y in complex sys ems o he physical and biological ealms.
These h ee indings, ela ed o he na u e o complexi y in a capi alis sys em a he cen e –
he US capi alism – pu o wa d new ques ions. One is abou he sel -o ganized na u e o capi alis
dynamics a he pe iphe y. Ano he is abou he na u e o p e-capi alis economies: we e hey
sel -o ganized?
The i s ques ion was in es iga ed by Cimini e al. (2020), using GDP pe capi a da a om he
Maddison P ojec Da abase o compa e coun ies a he cen e ( he US, Canada, Wes e n Eu opean
coun ies, Japan, Aus alia and New Zealand) and coun ies a he pe iphe y (La in Ame ican
coun ies and India). Cimini e al. (2020) applied an analysis based on Hu s exponen s, inding
ha “ he Hu s exponen can sepa a e he cen al coun ies om La in Ame ica plus India” (p.
1243).
12
This esul means ha he ajec o y o an economy a he pe iphe y “ ends o be qui e
andom in he sho - e m” (p. 1252).
The second ques ion is he inding o Melo (2023), ha using da a on whea p ices in he UK
has ound e idence o a ansi ion om a andom pa e n o a sel -o ganized pa e n a ound he
ime o he indus ial e olu ion.
These wo p elimina y indings on he beha io o he sys em be o e capi alism and a he
pe iphe y pu o wa d he need o u he in es iga ions on he na u e o he global sys em.
5. How o include he pe iphe y
The inclusion o he pe iphe y in an in es iga ion on he global dynamics o capi alism – a complex
sys em wi h peculia ea u es – may s a wi h a sugges ion o a heo e ical amewo k, based on
a dialogue among Kond a ie (1926), Fu ado (1987), and Cohen and Le in hal (1989),
13
and a
subsequen sys ema iza ion o his o ical in o ma ion and some p elimina y da a.
Kond a ie (1926), as p esen ed in sec ion 3, is a s a ing poin . On he one hand, his
elabo a ion places inno a ion as a de e minan o long cycles. On he o he hand, he a icula es
hose echnological changes wi h he inclusion o new egions in he global sys em (1926, p. 49);
changes a he cen e a e connec ed wi h he expansion o he whole sys em. Fu ado (1987) adds
o his heo e ical amewo k a consequence o he i s echnological e olu ion – he indus ial
10
See Ribei o e al. (2017b, igu e 3, p. 55).
11
These changes in he le el o complexi y, measu ed by changes in he powe -law exponen s, show ha he complexi y
o he sys em was lowe in he i s and he las ime in e als. Howe e , du ing he whole pe iod co e ed by he da a
analyzed in Ribei o e al. (2017b) he US economy became mo e di e si ied, wi h mo e s uc u es, mo e weal h, mo e
i ms, mo e ins i u ions, and new laye s o ma ke s – in sum, a mo e complica ed economy. Al hough mo e complica ed,
he sel -o ganiza ion p ocess is capable o dynamically adjus ing he whole sys em, a p ocess ha explains hese
changes in complexi y.
12
See Cimini e al. (2020, igu e 7, p. 1243, and igu e 8, p. 1244).
13
This heo e ical amewo k is p esen ed in Albuque que (2023, chap e 1).
E. da Mo a e Albuque que 261
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