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Purchasing Power Parity and the Irish Experience: Unit Roots and Cointegration Tests for Two Industrial Countries

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Purchasing Power Parity and the Irish Experience: Unit Roots and Cointegration Tests for Two Industrial Countries

Author: Fountas, Stilianos,Wu, Jyh-lin
Publisher: Berlin: Duncker & Humblot
Year: 1995
DOI: 10.3790/ccm.28.2.201
Source: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/293298/1/ccm.28.2.201.pdf
Foun as, S ilianos; Wu, Jyh-lin
A icle
Pu chasing Powe Pa i y and he I ish Expe ience: Uni
Roo s and Coin eg a ion Tes s o Two Indus ial Coun ies
K edi und Kapi al
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Foun as, S ilianos; Wu, Jyh-lin (1995) : Pu chasing Powe Pa i y and he I ish
Expe ience: Uni Roo s and Coin eg a ion Tes s o Two Indus ial Coun ies, K edi und Kapi al,
ISSN 0023-4591, Duncke & Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 28, Iss. 2, pp. 201-215,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.28.2.201
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/293298
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Pu chasing Powe Pa i y and he I ish Expe ience:
Uni Roo s and Coin eg a ion Tes s
o Two Indus ial Coun ies
By S ilianos Foun as, Galway, and Jyh-lin Wu, Chia-Yi
I. In oduc ion
The Pu chasing Powe Pa i y (PPP) ela ionship has been in he o e-
on o mode n in e na ional inance. This ela ion has been es ed
empi ically by many economis s and he e idence on i s ele ance has
been mixed. I is gene ally accep ed by applied and heo e ical econo-
mis s ha he pa i y does no hold in he sho un. Howe e , he e is no
consensus on he empi ical e idence on he long un pa i y. Mode n
ime-se ies econome ics ha include uni oo es s and coin eg a ion
echniques ha e been used ex ensi ely o es o he long un pa i y.1
Uni oo es s ha e ied o de e mine whe he he eal exchange a e is
a andom walk (i.e., a nons a iona y se ies). I he eal exchange a e
ollows a andom walk, he e would be no endency o e u n o i s long
un alue (i.e., he de ia ions om i s long un alue would be pe ma-
nen ). Dickey-Fulle es s ha e been used o es he null hypo hesis o
uni oo s. Howe e , his ype o classical s a is ical es s has been c i i-
cized ecen ly by s a is icians and economis s. This c i icism is based on
he ac ha classical es s canno disc imina e be ween la ge au o e-
g essi e coe icien s and uni oo s. In o he wo ds, classical es s ha e
low powe .
In esponse o he abo e-men ioned widely-accep ed c i icism o uni
oo es s, Kwia kowski, Phillips, Schmid and Shin (he ea e e e ed
o as KPSS, 1992) ha e sugges ed he use o es s o s a iona i y along
wi h es s o uni oo s. Then, i one inds ha he null o s a iona i y is
ejec ed and he null o uni oo canno be ejec ed, he se ies is consid-
e ed o be nons a iona y. KPSS (1992), a e es ing o bo h null hypo-
i Examples include Abua -Jo ion (1989), Co bae-Oulia is [(1988), (1990)],
Cheung-Lai (1993), Coughlin-Koedijk (1990), Ende s (1988), Johnson (1991), Ma k
(1990), Pippenge (1993), Taylo (1988), Tho n (1989) and W igh (1993).
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202 S ilianos Foun as and Jyh-lin Wu
heses o uni oo and s a iona i y, conclude ha o many o he US
ime-se ies examined by Nelson and Plosse (1982) he exis ence o uni
oo s is in doub . The e o e, hey a gue in a ou o a combina ion o
es s (eg., DF and KPSS) o es o he s a iona i y o a ime se ies. We
ha e decided o combine he KPSS es wi h he Augmen ed Dickey-
Fulle (ADF) es .
This pape con ibu es o he empi ical li e a u e on PPP in h ee
ways: i s , we use a ela i ely new es , he classical KPSS es o es
o he null o s a iona i y o he eal exchange a e. Second, using
mon hly da a o he 1981.1 - 1992.4 pe iod, we ind s ong e idence ha
PPP holds, e en wi h mon hly da a, o he UK and Ge many based on
Johansen's coin eg a ion es .2 These esul s imply ha I eland's compe-
i i e posi ion agains an ERM and a non-ERM coun y has been main-
ained ollowing he coun y's en y o he ERM. PPP agains Ge many,
in pa icula , implies ha I eland has linked i s in la ion a e o he low
Ge man a e jus i ying he coun y's membe ship in he EMS. Thi d, he
es ima ion o he E o -Co ec ion Mechanism (ECM) ep esen a ions
shows ha adjus men owa ds he long- un PPP akes place h ough
changes in he I ish p ice le el a he han he o eign p ice le el. These
esul s a e, in gene al, consis en wi h he small-open economy (SOE)
e sion o PPP whe e he p ice le el o he small economy adjus s o
es o e he PPP ela ion. The ECM e idence also shows ha PPP agains
he UK has been main ained h ough changes in he (s e ling/pound)
nominal exchange a e.
In a ecen pape , W igh (1993) es s o PPP o he I ish pound/s e -
ling and I ish pound/DM exchange a es using mon hly da a o he
1981.1 - 1992.6 pe iod. W igh (1993) using Johansen's coin eg a ion
app oach, i.e., a di e en echnique om ha applied by Thom (1989)
and Callan and Fi zge ald (1989), inds a simila esul : PPP using bo h
I ish/UK and I ish/Ge man da a is ejec ed. Howe e , he au ho inds
ha PPP holds i he coin eg a ing ec o is expanded o include he
domes ic and o eign in e es a e. Ou pape di e s om W igh (1993)
o ou main easons: i s , we concen a e only on p ice le els and he
nominal exchange a e and use wo di e en es ing p ocedu es. Second,
ollowing Cheung-Lai (1993) and Pippenge (1993), we p o ide a di e -
en in e p e a ion o he Johansen's es esul s on he p opo ionali y
hypo hesis in he coin eg a ing ec o and, hence, a e able o accep PPP
2 These esul s con as sha ply wi h hose by Thom (1989) who could no p o-
ide suppo i e e idence o he PPP agains he US and UK using Engle-G ange
coin eg a ion echniques and mon hly da a o he 1980 - 1987 pe iod.
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Pu chasing Powe Pa i y and he I ish Expe ience 203
p o ided he de ia ion om he exac PPP ela ionship may be due o
measu emen e o s in p ices. Thi d, o deal wi h he low powe o uni
oo es s, we make use o es s o bo h a uni oo null and a s a ion-
a i y null (using he ecen ly de eloped KPSS es ) when es ing o he
in eg a ion p ope ies o he eal exchange a e, he nominal exchange
a e, and he p ice le els. Finally, using he ECM eg essions, we de e -
mine he ela i e impo ance o domes ic p ices, o eign p ices, and he
nominal exchange a e in es ablishing he long- un PPP ela ionship.
The emaining o he pape is s uc u ed as ollows: sec ion II de-
sc ibes he ADF and KPSS es s, Johansen's p ocedu e and discusses he
me hodology. Sec ion III p o ides he empi ical esul s o he eal
exchange a e using he combina ion o KPSS and he ADF es s. Sec-
ion IV p esen s he coin eg a ion esul s using Johansen's app oach and
he e o -co ec ion es ima ions. Finally, sec ion V summa izes he main
conclusions.
II. Tes ing o PPP: he Empi ical Me hodology
To es o PPP we employ wo es ing p ocedu es. Fi s , we use wo
classical es s, ADF and KPSS. The i s es s o he null o a uni oo
and he second o he null o s a iona i y in he eal exchange a e.
Second, we apply Johansen's p ocedu e o es o a long- un ela ion
among he nominal exchange a e and he p ice le els.
1. PPP and S a is ical Tes s
Le R = S + P - P*, be he eal exchange a e, whe e S, P, and P* a e
he logs o he nominal exchange a e, domes ic p ice le el, and o eign
p ice le el espec i ely. P o ided ha S, P, and P* ha e uni oo s, he
ollowing de ini ions o PPP can be conside ed:
(i) PPP exis s i R is s a iona y.
(ii) PPP exis s i (S, P, P*) is coin eg a ed.
(i) is s onge han (ii) since i implies (ii) plus he es ic ion ha he
coin eg a ing ec o is (1, 1, -1). PPP es s o ype (i) include Co bae and
Oulia is (1988), Whi (1992), and es s o ype (ii) include Cheung and
Lai (1993), Ende s (1988), and W igh (1993). In his pape , we employ
s a is ical es s o es o bo h PPP de ini ions (i) and (ii). E en i R is
no s a iona y, coin eg a ion among p ice le els and he nominal
exchange a e would be consis en wi h PPP p o ided he de ia ion om
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204 S ilianos Foun as and Jyh-lin Wu
he "exac " PPP ela ion is due o measu emen e o s in p ice indices as
explained below.
2. ADF and KPSS
In his sec ion we combine wo classical es s, ADF and KPSS, in
o de o es o he s a iona i y o he eal exchange a e. Acco ding o
he ADF es , he ollowing eg ession is un
p
(1) R = P 0 + P R -
1
+ 7 * + +
i = l
and he null hypo hesis pT = 1 is es ed using a S uden 's s a is ic
deno ed T. We chose p = 4 since i is he minimum numbe o lags
necessa y o whi e noise esiduals. The no malized bias es , when he
e o s a e se ially co ela ed, is gi en by he s a is ic cT(pT-1), whe e
c = 1/(1 ~/32 -03 -^4). I s c i ical alues a e gi en in Fulle (1976,
p. 371).3 Dickey, Bell, and Mille (1986) in hei su ey o uni oo es s
men ion ha he powe s o he wo es s, T and no malized bias, a e he
same.
The inclusion o a linea ime end in equa ion (1) abo e equi es
some jus i ica ion. Economic heo y sugges s ha he e migh be a linea
end in he PPP ela ion. In o he wo ds, he equilib ium alue o he
eal exchange a e may a y o e ime. The a gumen (Balassa (1964),
Samuelson (1964)) is as ollows: an inc ease in he ac o p oduc i i y o
adable goods, as a coun y g ows mo e apidly han ano he , causes a
mo emen o capi al and labou om he non adable goods sec o o he
adable goods sec o . The educ ion in he supply o non adables leads
o an inc ease in hei ela i e p ice. Assuming ha he p ices o ad-
ables a e no e y sensi i e o domes ic condi ions, he domes ic- o eign
p ice le el a io and, he e o e, he eal exchange a e will inc ease. This
is mo e likely o happen he g ea e he weigh o non adables in he
p ice index being used. This a gumen shows ha he eal exchange a e
o high-g ow h coun ies should be app ecia ing.
A inding ha he uni oo null canno be ejec ed should no neces-
sa ily imply ha he se ies is nons a iona y since as KPSS (1992), among
o he s, ha e a gued, uni oo es s canno disc imina e agains close
al e na i es. The e o e, KPSS (1992) and Fishe and Pa k (1991) ha e
3 Fulle (p. 374, (1976)) men ions ha he asymp o ic dis ibu ion o his s a is-
ic is he same as ha o he unadjus ed T(pT - 1) s a is ic.
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Pu chasing Powe Pa i y and he I ish Expe ience 205
sugges ed he use o a es o s a iona i y whe e he null hypo hesis is
ha he se ies is s a iona y. The KPSS es is desc ibed below.
Suppose he se ies y consis s o a de e minis ic end, a andom walk,
and a s a iona y e o :
(2) y = + + e
whe e is a andom walk, i.e.,
(3) = -1 + u
whe e u is iid (0, The ini ial alue o , 0, is assumed ixed and,
he e o e, ep esen s he cons an o he equa ion. The null hypo hesis o
s a iona i y is ha = 0. Then, y is eg essed on a cons an and a ime
end and he esiduals a e deno ed by e . The pa ial sum p ocess o he
esiduals is
(4) ST = =l, 2,..., T
¿ = i
To de i e he asymp o ic dis ibu ion o he es s a is ic, assuming ha
he e o s e a e se ially co ela ed, KPSS (1992) de ine i s he "long-
un a iance":
(5) = Mm T-1 E(S2
T)
Then, assuming ha ^0, i.e., ha he null hypo hesis is end s a iona-
i y, KPSS de i e he asymp o ic es s a is ic jT:
(6) K = T-2X>?/s2(Z)
= l
whe e s2(l) is an es ima o o he "long- un a iance" (gi en by equa ion
(10) in KPSS (1992)), and Z, he lag unca ion pa ame e , is he numbe
o lags used o calcula e he a iance s2(l). Asymp o ic c i ical alues o
jT a e p o ided in Table 1 in KPSS (1992).
3. Johansen's Coin eg a ion Analysis
An al e na i e way o es o he PPP heo y is o de e mine whe he
he e is a long- un ela ionship among he nominal exchange a e and
he p ice le els in he wo coun ies. In o he wo ds, i he h ee se ies
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206 S ilianos Foun as and Jyh-lin Wu
a e in eg a ed o o de 1, a coin eg a ion es can be un o examine he
possibili y o a long- un equilib ium ela ion among hese se ies. Engle
and G ange (1987) we e he i s o in oduce a p ocedu e o a coin e-
g a ion es . Howe e , hei app oach does no allow o he de e mina-
ion o he numbe o coin eg a ing ec o s (CIV) and o he es ing o
ce ain hypo heses on he coin eg a ion pa ame e s. Johansen and Juse-
lius (1990) ha e p o ided maximum likelihood es s o he numbe o
CIV in wo cases: i s , a model ha allows o de e minis ic ends in
he in eg a ed a iables, and second, a model ha does no allow o
de e minis ic ends. We choose he i s ype o models.
Johansen's coin eg a ion app oach applies he educed ank eg ession.
Assume a n-dimensional ec o X — (a?i , ..., xn )'. Reg ess AX and
X -k-i on a cons an and he lagged di e ences o AX (up o k lags)
and de i e he esiduals uu and u2 espec i ely. Deno e he p oduc
momen ma ices o he esiduals as
T
Sii = T~l Z^i j »
= 1
whe e i, j = 1,2, and T is he sample size. Then, he equa ion
(7) XS22-S2iS^S12 = 0
is sol ed o he eigen alues A. Johansen and Juselius (1990) speci y wo
likelihood a io (LR) es s a is ics o es o he numbe o coin eg a -
ing ec o s. Fi s , he likelihood a io es s a is ic o he hypo hesis o
a mos coin eg a ing ec o s agains a gene al al e na i e, also called
ace s a is ic, is:
n
-21nQ = ~T ln(l-A0
i = + 1
whe e A* a e he n- smalles es ima ed eigen alues de i ed om equa-
ion (7). The second LR s a is ic o he null o exac ly coin eg a ing
ec o s agains he al e na i e o + 1 ec o s is he maximum eigen a-
lue s a is ic:
-21nQ , +1 = -Tln(l-A +i)
C i ical alues o he abo e es s a is ics a e abula ed in Johansen and
Juselius (1990, p. 208 - 209). The second es is mo e powe ul since he
al e na i e hypo hesis is an equali y.
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Pu chasing Powe Pa i y and he I ish Expe ience 207
Once one inds ha wo o mo e a iables a e coin eg a ed, es ic-
ions on he es ima ed coin eg a ing ec o pa ame e s can be es ed using
a likelihood a io es also sugges ed by Johansen and Juselius (1990). The
es s a is ic o he hypo hesis o n - s es ic ions on all CIV is:
-2 In Qn_s = T
ln{ (1
-
Ai)
/
(1
-
A4)
}
i = 1
whe e s is he numbe o independen coin eg a ing pa ame e s, is he
numbe o CIV es ablished h ough he use o he ace and maximum
eigen alue s a is ics, and Aj and A $ a e he es ima ed eigen alues om
he es ic ed and un es ic ed models espec i ely. Unde he null, his
s a is ic ollows ax2 dis ibu ion wi h (n - s) deg ees o eedom.
III. Uni Roo Tes s o he I ish Real Exchange Ra e
1. Da a
We use mon hly da a o he 1981.1 - 1992.4 pe iod. Due o una ailabil-
i y o mon hly se ies o CPI o I eland, we use he PPI (o WPI) se ies o
he h ee coun ies in all eg essions. The exchange a es a e end-o -
pe iod a es in he Dublin ma ke ob ained om he Qua e ly Bulle in
o he Cen al Bank o I eland. P ice indexes come om he OECD Main
Economic Indica o s.
2. ADF and KPSS Uni Roo Tes s o he Real Exchange Ra e
In o de o es o a uni oo in he eal exchange a e acco ding o
he ADF es , he eg ession gi en by equa ion (1) is un o p = 4 and
he S uden 's alue on he es ima e o p is de e mined. The alues o
his s a is ic, , a e gi en in Table 1. Al e na i ely, one may use he
no malized bias s a is ic cT(pT
—
1). Acco ding o able 1, based on he T
and no malized bias s a is ics, he uni oo null on he eal exchange
a e can be ejec ed a 5% signi icance le el only o he UK.
The alues o he KPSS s a is ic, 77 , in a model o he eal exchange
a e wi h a cons an and a de e minis ic end included a e gi en in
Table 1. We epo esul s o h ee di e en alues o I, he lag unca-
ion pa ame e ha is used o es ima e he long- un a iance and, hence,
de i e he asymp o ic c i ical alues. KPSS (1992) a gue ha he bes
choice is I = 8, since his achie es an op imal ade o be ween la ge size
14 K edi und Kapi al 2/1995
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208 S ilianos Foun as and Jyh-lin Wu
Table 1
Uni oo es s on he eal exchange a e
Mon hly da a 1981.1 - 1992.4
Coun y KPSS
T CT (pT - 1)
(1 =
4) (i
=
8)
(Z
= 12)
UK - 3.57* - 22.95* 0.380* 0.259* 0.215*
Ge many -2.44 - 14.74 0.133 0.085 0.069
No es: T e e s o es s o H0: pT = 1 in he eg ession R =
/3o
+ pTR -I +
71 + = l Pi&R -i + s - The c i ical alue a 5% is - 3.45. (Table 8.5.2 in Fulle ,
1976). cT(pT-l) is he no malized bias es o he same null hypo hesis, c equals
1/(1-/3i-/?2-/33-/?4). The 5% c i ical alue is app oxima ely -20.9. KPSS
(1992) assumes ha he null is s a iona i y in he eal exchange a e. The c i ical
alue o KPSS a he 5% le el is 0.146. I = 4, 8, o 12 speci ies he numbe o lags
in he long- un a iance. * indica es ejec ion o null a 5%.
dis o ions and low powe . Based on he esul s o Table 1, he null o
s a iona i y canno be ejec ed o Ge many a he
5 %
signi icance le el.
The esul s o Table 1 imply ha , based on he combina ion o ADF-
KPSS we canno conclude on he exis ence o a uni oo in he eal
exchange a e o he UK and Ge many. This p o ides he mo i a ion o
he use o Johansen's coin eg a ion es s as an al e na i e app oach o
es o PPP which does no impose any a p io i es ic ions on he coin-
eg a ing ec o .
IV. Johansen's Coin eg a ion Tes s
Fi s , he indi idual se ies, i.e., he nominal exchange a e and he
domes ic and o eign p ice le els, a e subjec ed o he ADF and KPSS
es s in o de o de e mine hei in eg a ion p ope ies. The esul s a e
gi en in Tables 2 and 3. Table 2 lis s he esul s o he p ice le el.
Based on he combina ion o KPSS and no malized bias s a is ic (o T),
we conclude ha he p ice le els ha e a uni oo in all coun ies since
we ejec he s a iona i y null hypo hesis and canno ejec he uni oo
null.
Table 3 includes he esul s o he nominal exchange a es. Acco ding
o bo h T and no malized bias we conclude ha all nominal exchange
a es ha e a uni oo .4 KPSS implies ha he null o s a iona i y is
4 The only excep ion being he UK unde he no malized bias s a is ic.
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Pu chasing Powe Pa i y and he I ish Expe ience 215
Zusammen assung
Kau k a pa i ä und die i ische E ah ung:
Einhei swu zel- und Koin eg a ions es s bei zwei Indus ielände n
In diesem Bei ag we den Einhei swu zel-/s a ionä e P ozeß- und Koin eg a-
ions es s ü die P ü ung de Kau k a pa i ä I lands im Ve gleich mi zwei In-
dus ielände n e wende . Au de G undlage on mona lich e hobenen Da en ü
den Zei aum sei 1981 zeigen wi , daß die Kau k a pa i ä sbeziehungen Bes and
haben, so e n die Ablehnung de Hypo hesen on Symme ie und Ve häl nis-
mäßigkei au Meß ehle bei den P eisindizes zu ückge üh we den kann. Insbe-
sonde e implizie en die Kau k a pa i ä im Ve gleich mi Deu schland und die
dadu ch bewi k e Bindung de i ischen In la ions- an die deu sche In la ions a e,
daß die Mi gliedscha I lands beim EWS ge ech e ig is . Es wi d bewiesen, daß
in Übe eins immung mi de Kau k a pa i ä s heo ie eine kleinen o enen Volks-
wi scha die Anpassung an die Kau k a pa i ä sbeziehungen in e s e Linie
du ch Ve ände ungen im Inlandsp eisni eau e olg .
Résumé
La pa i é du pou oi d'acha e l'expé ience i landaise:
uni oo s e es s de coin ég a ion pou deux pays indus ialisés
Ce a ail u ilise l'uni oo e des es s de coin ég a ion pou examine la pa i é
du pou oi d'acha en e l'I lande e deux pays indus ialisés. Su base de don-
nées mensuelles de la pé iode pos é ieu e à 1981, il es mon é que, en supposan
le eje des hypo hèses de symé ie e de p opo ionali é, les appo s de la pa i é
du pou oi d'acha peu en ê e a ibués à des e eu s de mesu e dans les indices
de p ix. En pa iculie , la pa i é du pou oi d'acha ace à l'Allemagne e le lien
en e les aux d'in la ion i landais e allemand implique que l'adhésion de l'I -
lande au SME es jus i iée. Il es aussi mon é que, sui an la héo ie de la pa i é
du pou oi d'acha en pe i e économie ou e e, ce son p incipalemen les change-
men s dans le ni eau des p ix na ionaux qui pe me en à la pa i é du pou oi
d'acha de se éajus e .
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.28.2.201 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:05:58