Heidland, Tobias; Wicha d , Philipp C.
A icle — Published Ve sion
Con lic ing iden i ies: cosmopoli an o anxious?
App ecia ing conce ns o hos coun y popula ion
imp o es a i udes owa ds immig an s
Social Fo ces
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy – Leibniz Cen e o Resea ch on Global Economic Challenges
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Heidland, Tobias; Wicha d , Philipp C. (2025) : Con lic ing iden i ies: cosmopoli an
o anxious? App ecia ing conce ns o hos coun y popula ion imp o es a i udes owa ds
immig an s, Social Fo ces, ISSN 1534-7605, Ox o d Uni e si y P ess (OUP), Ox o d, Vol. 103, Iss. 3,
pp. 1039-1058,
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O iginal A icle
Con lic ing iden i ies: cosmopoli an o
anxious? App ecia ing conce ns o hos
coun y popula ion imp o es a i udes
owa ds immig an s
Tobias Heidland1 and Philipp C. Wicha d 2,
*
1Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Ge many, and Kiel Uni e si y, and IZA Bonn
2Depa men o Economics, Lund Uni e si y, and Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, and CESi o Munich, and
Depa men o Economics, Uni e si y o Ros ock, Ulmens aße 69, 18057 Ros ock, Ge many
*Co esponding au ho : Depa men o Economics, Uni e si y o Ros ock, Ulmens . 69, D-18057 Ros ock, Ge many;
Tel.: +49-(0)381-4984486. Email: philipp.wicha d @uni- os ock.de.
This pape connec s insigh s om he li e a u e on cosmopoli an wo ld iews and he e ec s
o pe spec i e- aking in poli ical science, (in e g oup) anxie y in social psychology, and iden i y
economics in a igne e-s yle expe imen . In pa icula , we asked Ge man esponden s abou
hei a i udes owa ds a Sy ian e ugee, andomizing componen s o his desc ip ion (N =662).
The main ea men desc ibes he e ugee as being awa e o and empa he ic owa ds po en-
ial wo ies in he Ge man popula ion abou cul u al change, cos s, and iolence associa ed
wi h e ugee in lows. This pe spec i e- aking by he e ugee inc eases he epo ed abili y o
empa hize wi h he e ugee and, especially o isk-a e se people, epo ed sympa hy and us .
We a gue ha acknowledging he po en ial conce ns o he hos popula ion elie es he ension
be ween an anxious and a cosmopoli an/open pa o people’s iden i ies. Mo eo e , elie ed
ension ende s people less de ensi e; i.e. when one aspec o iden i y is al eady acknowledged
(exp essing anxie ies), i has less in luence on ac ual beha io (exp essing sympa hy). In
addi ion, p e ious con ac wi h o eigne s and a highe willingness o ake isks a e impo an
ac o s in de e mining an indi idual’s willingness o in e ac wi h e ugees.
Key wo ds: in e g oup con ac ; in e g oup anxie y; pe spec i e- aking; iden i y; mig a ion; in e-
g a ion; e ugees.
In oduc ion
The social and economic in eg a ion o e ugees is one o he g ea es challenges ha EU coun ies
cu en ly ace, especially so as mos e ugees a e unlikely o e u n o hei coun ies o o igin in
he nea u u e due o he p o ac ed na u e o he unde lying c ises.1 The success ul in eg a ion
o immig an s no only dec eases he iscal cos s associa ed wi h hos ing hem bu also inc ease
cul u al di e si y, which is bene icial o long- un economic de elopmen (c . Alesina and La
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1040 |Heidland and Wicha d
Fe a a, 2005). A lack o in eg a ion, by con as , can b eed discon en and seg ega ion and
po en ially lead o iolen ex emism (Bisin e al., 2011). Thus, many ac oss he poli ical spec um
demand ha e ugees ac i ely in eg a e o assimila e in o hos popula ions.
Success ul in eg a ion, howe e , is no simply he choice o e ugees. A lo depends on he
willingness o he hos popula ion o in e ac wi h and us hei new neighbo s. Un o una ely,
hos popula ions o en exhibi a angible in-g oup bias (e.g. Hainmuelle and Hopkins, 2014) ha
makes hem less willing o in e ac wi h o eigne s. Also, na i e popula ions a e o en eluc an
o le newcome s bene i om exis ing socie al a angemen s (e.g. Dahlbe g e al., 2012; Alesina
e al., 2023). Ye , simple nega i e u ili y om in e ac ing (i.e. a p e e ence-based explana ion) and
plain economic mo i es a e insu icien o explain obse ed pa e ns in socie y ( o a de ailed
li e a u e e iew, see Hainmuelle and Hopkins, 2014).
Wi h his pape , we aim o con ibu e o he in e disciplina y deba e on in eg a ion and mig a-
ion by b inging oge he insigh s om di e en disciplines—in pa icula , sociology, poli ical
science, psychology/social psychology, and economics— o shed u he ligh on he de e minan s
o success ul in eg a ion. We emphasize an aspec o he deba e, namely he explici app ecia ion
o he hos popula ion’s conce ns, which, o he bes o ou knowledge, has no been in he
spo ligh be o e bu which, as we will a gue, may add a ele an aspec o he ongoing deba e.
Be o e we desc ibe he de ails o ou s udy, we b ie ly e iew ela ed hough s om he li e a u e
o mo i a e ou app oach.
In ecen yea s, o ins ance, mo e and mo e schola s in poli ical science ha e exp essed he
iew ha he eme gence o an i-immig an pa ies in some pa s o he EU is closely connec ed o
a new clea age in he poli ical sys em ha cu s ac oss he le – igh dimension. Tha clea age is
o en labeled “cosmopoli an e sus communi a ian”, “open e sus closed” o “g een-al e na i e-
libe a ian e sus adi ional-au ho i a ian-na ionalis ”; see o example Zü n and de Wilde
(2016) o Maxwell (2019). Mo eo e , many o he poli ical pa ies on he “closed” pa o he
spec um use opics such as he isk o c imes commi ed by i egula immig an s o make
mig a ion- ela ed issues mo e salien , po en ially build on exis ing in e g oup anxie y and, hus,
mobilize o e s (c . Dinas e al., 2019; Dus mann e al., 2019).2 Ye , apa om si ua ions o
imminen h ea , anxie y does no ha e a epu a ion o os e ing help ul long- un beha io al
pa e ns, such as us ing, peace ul, and mu ually bene icial in e ac ion o di e en g oups.
Howe e , social psychologis s o e many insigh s ega ding he d i e s o in e g oup anxie y,
among hem pe sonal cha ac e is ics and a i udes, si ua ional ac o s, and expe iences (e.g.
S ephan and S ephan, 1985;see S ephan, 2014, o a e iew). Po en ial con ac wi h some
(la gely unknown) ou -g oup membe s usually igge s some o m o anxie y, o en e e ed o as
in e g oup anxie y (c . S ephan and S ephan, 1985;o S ephan, 2014), which in luences beha io
and a i udes owa ds he ou -g oup. While ini ial le els di e be ween indi iduals, esea ch
on in e g oup-con ac heo y (Allpo 1954) has iden i ied a ious e ec s in connec ion wi h
in e g oup con ac ha con ibu e o educed anxie y and inc eased in e g oup us (see, o
example, Pe ig ew, 1998, B own and Hews one, 2005; Pe ig ew and T opp, 2006; Hews one, 2009,
2015; Paluck e al., 2019; o Paolini e al., 2021, o gene al discussions). Fo example, es ing a
hypo hesis exp essed by Pu nam (2007) ha inc eased neighbo hood di e si y has a nega i e
e ec on in e g oup a i udes and in ol emen in b idging social capi al, Sa elkoul e al. (2015)
ind no such gene al e ec . In a simila ein, Schmid e al. (2014) ind posi i e indi ec e ec s o
inc eased di e si y ia inc eased in e g oup con ac (see also Ch is e al., 2014;o Hews one
and Schmid, 2014). Simila ly, when he p esence o ac ual immig an s eplaces he abs ac
phenomenon o mig a ion, conce ns may dec ease u he (see, o example, S einmay , 2021;
o S olle e al., 2013).3
Mo eo e , esea ch in psychology shows ha anxie y, pe sonal unce ain y, and inne ension
induce subjec s o exp ess mo e ex eme iews on a ious opics, including ing oup a o i ism
and eligious zeal (see, o example, McG ego e al., 2001; McG ego and Jo dan, 2007; McG ego
e al., 2008; Nash e al., 2011; Ha e al., 2005), educe pe spec i e- aking (e.g. Todd e al., 2015),
and also gene ally lead o educed in ake and p ocessing o a ailable (new) in o ma ion (e.g.
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Con lic ing iden i ies |1041
Eas e b ook, 1959; McG ego e al., 2012). Taken oge he , his esea ch p o ides ample easons
why people migh a leas eac cau iously owa d immig an s o e ugees.
Ye , he as amoun s dona ed and he e o s egula ly made o help e ugees4 p o ide ample
e idence ha he e gene ally is also a g ea willingness o help—and o be open and welcoming
o people in need (see, o example, Leong, 2008, o a discussion o he di e en pe spec i es on
immig an s as ei he en ichmen o in asion). I con as ed wi h he abo e indings om (social)
psychology,we hus ind suppo ing e idence o bo h anxious and open a i udes owa d e ugees
and immig an s. This obse a ion cons i u es a s a ing poin o ou s udy.
In o de o cap u e he di e en aspec s mo e o mally, we ely on how social iden i y is
unde s ood by Ake lo and K an on (2000), who in oduced he idea in o economics. In hei
(simpli ied) model, indi iduals possess di e en laye s o iden i y ha can become ele an
depending on he con ex o , o example, cues p o ided by ano he pe son o a si ua ion. Since
iden i ies o e lap and se e al laye s can be ele an in any gi en si ua ion, hey may come in o
con lic (see, o example, Wicha d , 2008, o a discussion o he e ec s o con lic ing iden i ies).
Fo he p esen discussion,we assume ha people ha e bo h an anxious and a cosmopoli an/open
aspec o iden i y ega ding e ugees and will ocus on he in e play o hese.5
Now, conside a si ua ion whe e a hos popula ion is aced wi h he in low o a huge numbe
o e ugees (as was—and pa ly s ill is— he case o Sy ian e ugees in 2015 o , mo e ecen ly,
Uk ainian e ugees in 2022). I seems easonable o assume ha in such a si ua ion, bo h anxious
and open a i udes/aspec s o iden i y will be igge ed—gi ing ise o con lic ing goals. Thus, he
si ua ion en ails a leas wo sou ces o ension (wi h he abo e-men ioned ad e se consequences
o cogni ion): in e g oup anxie y and he goal con lic be ween helping and dis ancing (see
McG ego e al., 2012, o how goal con lic s inc ease inne ension).
An ex ensi e li e a u e in clinical psychology a gues ha o alle ia e he e ec s o anxie y,
accep ance (ins ead o supp ession) is an impo an s ep (e.g. Ba low e al., 2004; Le i e al.,
2004); in ac , he e is a whole b anch o beha io al he apy unde he name o “Accep ance and
Commi men The apy” (e.g. Swain e al., 2013). Mo eo e , while own accep ance is key in he apy
concep s, accep ance and alida ion by o he s a e impo an as well (e.g. Leahy, 2002; Den on
e al., 2009; Ca son-Wong e al., 2018).6 Based on he li e a u e, we suspec ed ha his mechanism
could be used o educe bo h in e g oup anxie y and inne ension due o he goal con lic o
es o e mo e openness owa ds new in o ma ion and imp o e a i udes owa ds e ugees. In
pa icula , we hypo hesized ha an empa he ic, pe spec i e- aking s a emen acknowledging less
open ai s in he hos popula ion— ela ed o in e g oup anxie y— os e s mo e open a i udes.
No e ha his hypo hesis is di e en om he common o ms o pe spec i e- aking o en
conside ed in he li e a u e (e.g. Ba son e al., 1997; Abe son and Haag, 2007; Ba son and
Ahmand, 2009;o Adida e al., 2018) in ha we do no s udy he e ec o pe spec i e- aking
o an in-g oup membe has on hei in e g oup anxie y bu he e ec o pe spec i e- aking o
an ou -g oup membe on in e g oup anxie y o in-g oup membe s. Howe e , we a e no he
i s o emphasize he impo ance o mu ual unde s anding o ui ul social in e ac ion. Tha
(pe cei ed) pe spec i e- aking by o he s can ha e a posi i e e ec on people whose pe spec i e
is aken—i he pe spec i e- ake is belie ed o be capable o doing so—has been ecognized, o
example, by Golds ein e al. (2014). Mo eo e , he gene al obse a ion ha con eying accep ance
and unde s anding is impo an o in e pe sonal ela ionships was al eady made by Roge s
(1956);see Reis e al. (2017) o a discussion in he con ex o ( oman ic) ela ionships.7
To explo e ou hypo hesis abou pe spec i e- aking in he con ex o immig a ion, we con-
duc ed an expe imen in which ci izens we e asked o a e a pe son desc ibed as a Sy ian e ugee
wi h espec o hei gene al liking, us , empa hy, and willingness o in e ac pe sonally wi h his
pe son.As he main ea men (hence o h “P(e spec i e)-Taking” ea men ) in a be ween-subjec
design, we in oduced a s a emen in which he e ugee acknowledges and shows empa hy
ega ding wo ies o he hos popula ion abou “o e o eigniza ion”, iscal cos s, and po en ially
inc easing iolence.8 Fu he mo e,he men ions he need o mu ual espec and good communi y
spi i .9 To be e unde s and he mechanisms, we also andomized he eligion o he e ugee
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1042 |Heidland and Wicha d
(Muslim/Ch is ian) and had an addi ional ea men whe e he pe son was desc ibed as a Ge man
ci izen and no as a e ugee.10
In line wi h ou hypo hesis, we ind ha i he e ugee is desc ibed as being empa he ic owa ds
conce ns in he Ge man popula ion, epo ed likabili y and epo ed abili y o pe spec i e- aking
inc ease subs an ially. The la e e ec appea s pa icula ly ele an in iew o indings ha own
pe spec i e- aking imp o es in e g oup a i udes and ela ions (e.g. Ba son and Ahmad, 2009).
Mo eo e , adding o he exis ing li e a u e, we ind ha his e ec holds pa icula ly o mo e
isk-a e se people, a cha ac e ai closely linked o lowe openness owa ds o he people o new
expe iences. In ac , epo ed us wo hiness also inc eases subs an ially (especially) o isk-
a e se esponden s. Ou “P-Taking” ea men does no a ec he s a ed willingness o in e ac
pe sonally ( alk o, mee wi h a co ee, in i e home), hough. Rega ding ac ual in e ac ion, we ind
ha ha ing non-Ge man iends o ela i es in gene al has a posi i e e ec on s a ed esponses,
which is consis en wi h ea lie indings ha eme ging posi i e a i udes o one ou -g oup seem
o sp ead o o he ou -g oups (c . Hews one, 2015). Mo eo e , we ind ha being mo e sociable
and ha ing low le els o isk a e sion a e ele an ; o mo e in ensi e con ac , low isk a e sion
is mo e impo an han sel - epo ing as sociable. Again, his is e y much in line wi h he abo e-
ci ed esea ch on (social) psychology (e.g. McG ego e al., 2012; Todd e al., 2015) ha sugges s
inc eased openness o he new si ua ion once he inne ension is educed.
In addi ion o he main s udy, we also conduc ed a ollow-up expe imen o assess how
Ge mans would be seen by o he Ge mans i exp essing he same iews as (allegedly) sugges ed
by he e ugee in he i s s udy ( he de ails a e p esen ed in Appendix E). He e, we ind ha
when a Ge man exp esses hei espec i e conce ns, o he Ge mans pe cei e his pe son as less
cosmopoli an and mo e p one o o ing o he an i-immig an Al e na i e o Ge many. I we
assume ha being pe cei ed as gene ally open-minded is desi able, he esul s o he ollow-up
expe imen sugges ha publicly acknowledging one’s own in e g oup anxie y may be socially
cos ly. We emphasize his poin , as i u he suppo s ou hypo hesis ha he e indeed is a
ension be ween cosmopoli an/open and anxious pa s o he sel and ha he e ec o he
alleged s a emen o a e ugee does no s em om i s ace alue con en (which would e ec i ely
asc ibe a i udes o Ge mans which hey would be hesi an o be openly associa ed wi h) bu om
elie ing he ension be ween con lic ing aspec s o iden i y/goals.
Summing up, ou expe imen al esul s sugges ha acknowledging exis ing conce ns and
c ea ing an a mosphe e o (mu ual) unde s anding—including acknowledging he po en ial
conce ns o he hos popula ion—may help o p o ide a be e s a ing poin o la e in e ac ions
and, hence, inc ease he chances o success ul in eg a ion. O cou se, we do no wan o o e -
in e p e he esul s o ou explo a o y s udy. Ye , we see he easonably high in e nal consis ency
o he di e en esul s and hei gene al i wi h he exis ing li e a u e as suppo i e o he o e all
a gumen we make. Gi en he ele ance o he gene al ques ions ega ding in e g oup ela ions,
we hus hope ha ou s udy will p o e help ul in unde s anding some o he unde lying social
o ces.
The es o he pape is s uc u ed as ollows: The nex wo sec ions epo he expe imen al
design and he empi ical esul s. In Sec ion 4, we discuss he esul s and ela e hem in mo e
de ail o he ex an li e a u e. Sec ion 5 concludes, emphasizing limi a ions, possible a enues
o u u e esea ch, and poin ing ou he po en ial ele ance o ou esul s o policymake s and
p ac i ione s. The supplemen a y ma e ial and analyses a e ga he ed in he online appendix.
Design and p ocedu es
Design
The ques ionnai e used o ou s udy shows a pic u e o a pe son who appea s o be A abic
accompanied by six di e en se s o in o ma ion ha claim o e e o he pe son. In all cases,
he pe son is desc ibed as being 34 yea s old, cu en ly li ing in Hanno e (Ge many; as he
s udy was conduc ed in Kiel and Ros ock and we wan ed a neu al e e ence), being ma ied
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Con lic ing iden i ies |1043
Table 1. T ansla ion o desc ip ion o he case o a Muslim Sy ian demons a ing openness
( e lec ed in he las pa ag aph). The ansla ion is li e al o ensu e ha as much o sub le
conno a ions as possible a e p ese ed.
The pho o shows Dawud M. (34, na i e Sy ian). Un il ecen ly he li ed wi h his wi e and his wo child en in
Sy ia and wo ked as a axi d i e . Because Dawud M. epea edly c i icized he cu en egime in Sy ia he
had o lee despi e his s ong bond o his homeland (li e ally: “Heima ”).
Dawud M. desc ibes himsel as a de ou Muslim, o whom amily is e y impo an . Cu en ly, Dawud M.
and his amily a e housed in Hanno e , whe e he hopes o ind wo k again soon.
Rega ding he si ua ion in Ge many, Dawud ema ked unde s anding o anxie y on he Ge man side, o
example wi h espec o “o e - o eigniza ion”, a ising cos s o inc easing iolence. Acknowledging hese (i.e.
he anxie y/conce ns) was (indi ec speech) impo an o mu ual espec and a good communi y spi i (li e ally:
“Mi einande ”).
Table 2. O e iew o ea men s.
Na ionali y Sy ian Ge man
P-Taking ea men No Yes No de ail
Religion Muslim xxx
Ch is ian xxx
No e: Ti les in i alics indica e he h ee dimensions ha ha e been a ied.
wi h wo child en, seeking a job and ha ing wo ked as a axi d i e . The coun y o o igin, gende ,
and ela i ely young age we e designed o e lec ypical cha ac e is ics o e ugees om he
ecen wa e.
The age was chosen o be somewha highe han ha o he modal mig an who a i ed in
Ge many in 2015 o make he s o y c edible. As p e ious esea ch om F ance shows ha a
Muslim backg ound is associa ed wi h lowe in eg a ion and accep ance (c . Adida e al., 2010
and 2016; Bansak e al., 2016), we also a ied eligion (and name) o he e ugee be ween Muslim
(Dawud) and Ch is ian (Raphael), while always desc ibing he pe son as eligious. Mo eo e , as he
main ea men a ia ion, we a ied whe he he pe son has made a s a emen acknowledging
po en ial conce ns in he Ge man hos popula ion ega ding “o e - o eigniza ion” (“Übe emdung”
in he Ge man ques ionnai e), inc easing iolence and esul ing cos s; he ea men is e e ed
o as he “P(e spec i e)-Taking” ea men . Finally, as a con ol ea men , we adminis e ed wo
e sions desc ibing he pe son as Ge man, being ei he Muslim (Dawud) o Ch is ian (Raphael),
while using a compa able wo ding and s o y as much as possible (i.e., being 34, li ing in
Hanno e ,...). A ansla ion o an example is p o ided in Table 1 and a summa y o he ea men
in Table 2;see Appendix A o u he in o ma ion on he s udy.
Following his in o ma ion, he pa icipan s o ou s udy we e asked o answe he ollowing
ques ions on a 6-poin Like -scale:
1. How much do you like Dawud/Raphael?
2. How well can you pu you sel in o Dawud/Raphael’s shoes?
3. How as is Dawud/Raphael going o in eg a e in o Ge man socie y? (Only o Dawud/Raphael
desc ibed as Sy ian.)
4. Gene ally, would you us Dawud/Raphael?
5. Can you imagine alking o a pe son like Dawud/Raphael abou his expe iences?11
6. Can you imagine mee ing a pe son like Dawud/Raphael o co ee o ea?11
7. Can you imagine in i ing a pe son like Dawud/Raphael home?11
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1044 |Heidland and Wicha d
The ques ionnai e concludes wi h some gene al ques ions abou he subjec ’s age, gende ,
na ionali y, close non-Ge man iends o ela i es, income, and sel -pe cep ion as sociable (6-
poin s) and willingness o ake isks (10 poin scale; a ques ion om he Ge man Socio-Economic
Panel, which has been ound o be a a he s able measu e o isk a i udes ha co ela es as
p edic ed by Lau iola and Le ine (2001) wi h Big Fi e Pe sonali y ai s, c . Lönnq is e al., 2015).
Following common p ac ice in economics (e.g. Ge be e al., 2013; Lönnq is e al., 2015; Bol on
and We ne , 2016), we placed hese ques ions a e he ea men o a oid p iming esponden s
by asking hem abou hei pe sonal cha ac e is ics i s .12
P ocedu es
The da a o ou s udy we e collec ed in Decembe 2015 and ea ly in Janua y 2016 in Kiel
and Ros ock.13 In bo h ci ies, we app oached people in he s ee s, asking whe he hey would
be willing o suppo ou esea ch by answe ing a sho ques ionnai e. In o de o sample in
compa able se ings,we ocused on simila loca ions (ci y cen e s whe e people we e shopping o
Ch is mas and a quie e loca ion close o he sea); hese da a we e ga he ed in Decembe 2015. In
addi ion, we in i ed s uden s om di e en lec u es a he Uni e si y o Ros ock o pa icipa e in
he s udy; some o hese da a we e ga he ed in ea ly Janua y, 2016. In o al, 662 people esponded
o ou ques ionnai e.
No e ha in all cases he ques ionnai e e sions we e dis ibu ed andomly. Thus, while he
sample is ce ainly no ep esen a i e o any pa o Ge many, andomiza ion implies ha we ha e
no eason o expec any sys ema ic unde lying biases ac oss ea men s, which migh explain
ou esul s. Ye , jus as in any labo a o y expe imen , he sample is, o cou se, a ec ed by sel -
selec ion.14
Empi ical esul s
We now u n o ou s udy’s empi ical esul s, which we will in e p e in he Discussion sec ion
below.
Summa y s a is ics
Summa y s a is ics o ou s udy a e p o ided in Table 3. Abou hal he sample (48%) was
collec ed on he s ee s in Ros ock/Kiel and he o he hal (52%) in lec u es a he Uni e si y o
Ros ock. All in all, he pe son in he igne e who makes he empa he ic s a emen (i.e. appea ing
as “open” owa d he po en ial hos ) was included in 34% o cases. He was desc ibed as Ch is ian
o 53% o he sample and as Ge man o 31% o he sample. In line wi h ou expec a ions, all
co a ia es a e balanced ac oss ea men s (see Table A1 in Appendix B), which is eassu ing
gi en ha hey we e measu ed a e he ea men and esponding o he ques ions ha a e
he ou come a iables.
Gene al ea men di e ences
Fo ou main analysis, we use an o de ed logi model o es ima ion. We es ed all model
speci ica ions o he p opo ional odds assump ion, some imes also called he es o pa allel
lines; none o hese es s ejec he assump ion. The baseline o all es ima ions is a Sy ian who
is a eligious Muslim and gi es no u he indica ion o acknowledging he conce ns o he hos
popula ion.
A i s analysis wi hou con olling o pe sonal cha ac e is ics shows ha he “P- aking"
ea men , i.e. desc ibing he e ugee as being awa e o and open o he anxie ies o he hos
popula ion, makes him signi ican ly mo e likable (Table 4). The e ec size can be in e p e ed as
log odds. Thus, he “P-Taking” ea men inc eases he log odds o ha ing esponded in a highe
ca ego y on he 7-poin scale by 0.367. I one calcula es his as an odds a io, i indica es a 44.4
pe cen inc ease in he p obabili y o ha ing esponded in a highe ca ego y.
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Con lic ing iden i ies |1045
Table 3. Summa y s a is ics.
Va iable Mean S d. De . Min. Max. N
Ou come a iables
Liking 4.25 0.99 1 6 654
Empa hy 3.85 1.45 1 6 661
Would us 3.99 1.12 1 6 657
Would alk o 5.12 1.17 1 6 661
Would mee o co ee/ ea 4.47 1.44 1 6 661
Would in i e home 3.77 1.59 1 6 620
Expec as in eg a ion 3.65 1.16 1 6 447
Indi idual cha ac e is ics o esponden s
Female 0.5 0.5 0 1 642
Age 32.62 17.56 10 87 639
Close ela ionship o o eigne 0.6 0.49 0 1 642
Sociable 4.57 1.06 1 7 640
Willingness o ake isks/Gene al isk a i ude 5.79 1.98 110 640
No es: Summa y s a is ics epo ed in his able e e o all obse a ions. All scales a e 6-poin excep he isk
scale which is 10-poin . The ques ion abou as in eg a ion was no included o in he “is Ge man” ea men .
Unequal sample size due o answe s such as “Don’ know” o ailu e o answe
Fu he mo e, pa icipan s in he “P-Taking” ea men show 0.355 log odds highe epo ed
abili y o pu hemsel es in o he e e ence pe son’s posi ion and also expec he e ugee o
in eg a e signi ican ly as e . The esul ega ding he epo ed abili y o empa hize is pa icula ly
no ewo hy due o he posi i e e ec s o such beha io on in e g oup a i udes and ela ions (e.g.
Ba son and Ahmad, 2009).
Howe e , he e is no gene al ea men e ec due o his pe spec i e- aking on us o he
epo ed willingness o in e ac wi h he e ugee by alking o him, mee ing wi h him o in i ing
him. Thus, while making he e e ence pe son mo e likable and subjec i ely easie o empa hize
wi h, he “P-Taking” ea men does no a ec he epo ed willingness o in e ac .
Random assignmen o he eligion has no s a is ically signi ican e ec . This seems plau-
sible because eligion plays a a smalle ole in Ge many han in coun ies like he Uni ed
S a es.15 Desc ibing he e e ence pe son as Ge man Muslim o Ge man Ch is ian has no
s a is ically signi ican e ec on a i ude sco es. Ye , he epo ed willingness o alk o o mee
wi h him is weakly lowe . This may, o example, be due o a gene ally highe in e es in he
e ugees and mo e openness owa ds ecen a i als han owa ds a Ge man pe son wi h a
mig an backg ound.
In iew o he eliabili y o he esul s, ecall ha ou main hypo hesis was ha an empa he ic
s a emen acknowledging less open ai s in he hos popula ion could os e mo e open a i udes.
Wi h se en ou come a iables, he e may be conce ns abou o e ejec ing he null hypo hesis due
o mul iple hypo hesis es ing. To assess his isk, we calcula e sha pened False Disco e y Ra e
q- alues (Ande son, 2008) o hese se en p- alues. These indica e sha pened q- alues o he
coe icien s in columns 1, 2, and 7 o 0.134. Tha would indica e ha , o each o hese h ee
indica o s, he e is app oxima ely a p obabili y o one in se en ha i is a alse ejec ion o he
null hypo hesis. Con olling o he alse disco e y a e, we can hus expec ha 3× 0.134 = 0.402
o hese h ee coe icien s a e a alse posi i e.16 No e, howe e , ha he indings a e no only
in e nally consis en , i.e. we do no ind signi ican posi i e e ec s on epo ed willingness o
mee closely (home) bu no mo e dis an ly (co ee), bu also in line wi h he o e all a gumen
and ea lie li e a u e. Thus, we a e con iden ha ou o e all a gumen and he co esponding
empi ical esul s poin o a po en ially ele an new aspec in he academic deba e on in e g oup
anxie y and con ac .
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1046 |Heidland and Wicha d
Table 4. T ea men e ec s o Sy ian e ugee including he “Ge man” ea men .
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
likable empa hy would us would alk o would mee o co ee would in i e home expec as in eg a ion
T ea men s
Pe spec i e-Taking 0.367∗∗ 0.355∗∗ −0.006 0.016 0.036 −0.199 0.337∗
(0.171) (0.169) (0.173) (0.181) (0.173) (0.177) (0.172)
Is Ch is ian 0.074 0.001 0.222 −0.004 −0.205 −0.116 0.228
(0.143) (0.138) (0.141) (0.149) (0.141) (0.147) (0.172)
Is Ge man 0.183 0.042 −0.159 −0.313∗−0.288∗−0.159
(0.181) (0.174) (0.178) (0.181) (0.171) (0.180)
Loca ion FE
Obse a ions 654 661 657 661 661 620 447
P- alues 0.032 0.035 0.974 0.928 0.837 0.262 0.050
Sha pened q- alues 0.134 0.134 0.884 0.884 0.884 0.355 0.134
No es: Es ima es om an o de ed logi model wi h he epo ed eg esso s. He e oskedas ici y- obus s anda d e o s in pa en heses. The loca ion ixed e ec is a dummy ha is
one in he Wes Ge man loca ion and 0 in he Eas Ge man loca ion. A e sion wi hou he ixed e ec can be ound in Table A2. ∗∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗ p < 0.1. The p- alues
and sha pened q- alues epo ed a he bo om o he able e e o he pe spec i e- aking ea men . The baseline igne e is a Muslim e ugee om Sy ia who does no p o ide
he s a emen acknowledging Ge man conce ns. The ques ion abou as in eg a ion was no included in he “is Ge man” ea men . The sample size in column 6 is smalle due
o a p in ing issue on he i s day o ield wo k. This is no d i ing any esul s. Di e ences in obse a ions esul om some subjec s no answe ing all ques ions.
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Con lic ing iden i ies |1053
5. Fo a discussion o di e en de e minan s o he deg ee o cosmopoli an alues see
Ka z-Ge o e al. (2024).
6. As a simpli ied example, conside he case whe e a pa ien is equi ed o accep hei anxie y
by a he apis who does no simul aneously exp ess he own (ex e nal) accep ance o i bu
ins ead desc ibes i as un easonable and an ob ious exp ession o madness. E en ually, he
ex e nal accep ance o he sel (including he anxie y) is wha ensu es con inued belonging
o he in-g oup, he eby acili a ing in e nal accep ance o he anxie y.
7. Somewha ela ed, o example,Lees and Cika e (2020) demons a e he posi i e e ec o sim-
ply p o iding co ec ing in o ma ion abou ou -g oups on nega i e ou -g oup a ibu ions.
8. E en i ac ual c ime a es o en do no inc ease, Ajzenman e al. (2023) show ha conce ns
ega ding c ime inc ease in a eas wi h highe numbe s o immig an s and may lead o
inc eased igh -wing o ing.
9. The Ge man e m “Übe emdung”, used in he ques ionnai e, is li e ally ansla ed as o e -
o eigniza ion he e o ensu e ha i s meaning is p ese ed. The wo d cap u es ea s abou
cul u al he e ogenei y in oduced by immig an s and has a nega i e conno a ion.
10. Since he la ge majo i y o Sy ian e ugees a he ime o he expe imen we e male and
hese we e seen wi h much mo e skep icism in he Ge man popula ion, we do no e alua e
a i udes o a emale e ugee.
11. No e ha we only asked abou in e ac ing wi h someone simila o he e e ence pe son o
a oid igge ing expec a ions o ac ually be p esen ed o he pe son on he spo —a belie we
would ha e been unable o con ol o .
12. We a e awa e ha di e en disciplines ake a di e en s ance on his issue (c . Mon gome y
e al., 2018, o a discussion). We ha e no in en ion o pass any kind o gene al judgmen
he e. Ye , we belie e ha in he p esen se ing, he easons o he chosen o de a e e y
plausible. In o de o check o possible in luences o he ea men on answe pa e ns on
indi idual cha ac e is ics (esp. isk a i ude and being sociable), we ca ied ou balance es s
ha do no yield any signi ican di e ences in co a ia es (Table A1).
13. Kiel and Ros ock a e old Hansea ic league ci ies in he no h o Ge many loca ed a he Bal ic
coas —Kiel being in Wes Ge many and Ros ock in Eas Ge many.
14. Pa icipa ion a es we e a ound 20% (ci y cen e ), be ween 30 and 60% (sea) and close o 100%
(lec u e).
15. Due o Ge many’s pas pe secu ion o ci izens based on hei ai h,o icial da a do no include
he eligion o ci izens. O icial es ima es based on he 2011 census s a e ha Kiel had a
sha e o o eign popula ion o 7.8 pe cen and Ros ock o 3.7 pe cen (Des a is, 2014). Fu he
es s show ha he e ec o eligion is s onges among uni e si y s uden s in Ros ock, he
g oup wi h he lowes likelihood o pe sonal expe ience; his is compa ible wi h he idea ha
expe ience is ele an o in e g oup anxie y (c . S ephan, 2014).
16. I we make he adjus men join ly o all 27 hypo hesis es s (including he ixed
e ec ) in Table 4, he q- alue indica es ha he h ee s a is ically signi ican coe icien s
o “P-Taking” a e signi ican a an FDRs o 0.131, 0.131, and 0.157, espec i ely, i.e.
0.131 + 0.131 + 0.157 = 0.419 ou o he h ee coe icien s can be expec ed o be alse
disco e ies.
17. One migh suspec ha isk a e sion is co ela ed wi h being mo e sociable. To es his
conce n, we added a con ol a iable o he ques ionnai e. Adding an in e ac ion e m
be ween sel - epo ing as sociable and he “P-Taking” ea men does no yield any signi ican
e ec s. The ea men e ec he e ogenei y wi h espec o isk is hus no d i en by mo e
sociable indi iduals.
18. As 44.5% o he popula ion o Schleswig-Hols ein— he p o ince o which Kiel is he capi al—
we e hemsel es e ugees in 1949 due o an in lux o 1.18 million egis e ed e ugees a
he end o he Second Wo ld Wa (S a e o Schleswig-Hols ein, 1990), many esponden s
supposedly ha e pa en s, g andpa en s, and o he close ela i es wi h pe sonal expe ience
o becoming displaced.
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1054 |Heidland and Wicha d
19. No e how he posi ionali y o he Ge man and he Sy ian e ugee ma e s a his poin .
Acknowledging hese conce ns as a Sy ian e ugee is no unde s ood as signaling allegiance
wi h Ge man a - igh pa ies because ew esponden s would expec a e ugee o suppo
poli ical pa ies ha s ongly disc imina e agains him. Ins ead, he s a emen cons i u es
pe spec i e- aking by he e ugee, signaling ha he pe son is empa he ic and no a all
hos ile o he membe s o he hos popula ion.As he da a show, his signal appea s especially
ele an o isk-a e se membe s o he hos popula ion.
20. No e ha simply a guing ha exp essing empa hy is likable by i sel would, by con as ,
no o e an al e na i e mechanism ha could explain ea men e ec he e ogenei y in
esponden s’ isk a i ude.
21. Sample sizes o 3000–3500 indi iduals make his a ela i ely p ecisely es ima ed ze o e ec .
No e ha Osh i e al. (2023) e en ind a nega i e link be ween isk a i ude and willingness
o o e o a - igh pa ies in a b oade sample o Eu opean coun ies.
Abou he au ho s
Tobias Heidland is P o esso o Economics a Kiel Uni e si y and Head o he Resea ch Cen e
“In e na ional De elopmen ” a he Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy. In his esea ch on
mig a ion, he is pa icula ly in e es ed in a i udes owa d mig an s and mig a ion policy as well
as c ea ing a be e unde s anding o mig a ion decision-making p ocesses a he mic o le el.
Much o his mig a ion esea ch is hus in e disciplina y.
Philipp C. Wicha d is P o esso o Economics a he Uni e si y o Ros ock and an a ilia e
esea che a he Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, he Depa men o Economics a Lund Uni-
e si y and CESi o Munich. In his esea ch, he s udies psychological de e minan s o indi idual
decision making such as (social) iden i y, a achmen and anxie y, as well as models o bounded
a ionali y. In addi ion, he is in e es ed in he philosophy o economics and social sciences wi h
a ocus on me hodological ques ions ega ding an app op ia e unde s anding o models.
Supplemen a y ma e ial
Supplemen a y ma e ial is a ailable a Social Fo ces online.
Funding
None decla ed.
Da a a ailabili y
The da a unde lying his a icle will be sha ed on easonable eques o he co esponding au ho .
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