Pipke, Da id
A icle — Published Ve sion
No e idence o i s -mo e ad an age in a la ge sample o
penal y shoo ou s
Jou nal o Economic Psychology
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Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy – Leibniz Cen e o Resea ch on Global Economic Challenges
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Pipke, Da id (2025) : No e idence o i s -mo e ad an age in a la ge sample o
penal y shoo ou s, Jou nal o Economic Psychology, ISSN 1872-7719, Else ie , Ams e dam, Vol. 108,
pp. 1-8,
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No e idence o i s -mo e ad an age in a la ge sample o
penal y shoo ou s
Da id Pipke
Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Ge many
ARTICLE INFO
JEL Codes:
Z20
D91
J01
L83
Keywo ds:
Fi s -mo e ad an age
Choking
Penal y-shoo ou
Socce
Ice hockey
ABSTRACT
Con lic ing e idence exis s ega ding a i s -mo e ad an age in socce shoo ou s, whe e
inc eased p essu e on second-mo ing eams may lead o choking. While some s udies suppo his
claim, o he s e u e i , wi h he lack o consensus likely due o limi ed sample sizes. An analysis o
a ound 7,000 socce penal y shoo ou s and 74,000 kicks inds no e idence o a i s - o second-
mo e ad an age in winning p obabili y. Equi alence es ing u he ejec s any de ia ion
g ea e han 1.8 pe cen age poin s om a 50% win p obabili y o i s -kicking eams. A pa allel
analysis o ice hockey shoo ou s inds no signi ican ad an age o disad an age o ei he he i s -
o second-mo ing eam.
1. In oduc ion
The abili y o pe o m unde psychological p essu e can ha e p o ound e ec s on ca ee ajec o ies and li e ou comes, in luencing
p omo ions, R&D compe i ions, academic admissions, and championship ic o ies in spo s (Beilock, 2010). Howe e , he in ica e
dynamics o many o hose p ocesses a e highly complex, unce ain, and laden wi h unobse ed a iables, p esen ing challenges o
di ec s udy. Wi h hei anspa ency, well-de ined ules, objec i e measu abili y, and ich da a, spo s o e an ideal se ing o
s udying key phenomena in economic psychology (Bala ou as e al., 2019). In pa icula , spo s p o ide a na u al labo a o y o
analyzing choking unde p essu e (McGa y and F anks, 2000, Dohmen, 2008, Ba -Eli e al., 2020, Palacios-Hue a, 2023).
Choking unde p essu e is heo ized o a ise in si ua ions ha demand au oma ic execu ion, wi h inc eased p essu e leading o
dis up ed au oma ici y as indi iduals o e ly ocus on hei pe o mance (Baumeis e and S einhilbe , 1984). Penal y shoo ou s
exempli y such high-p essu e scena ios whe e au oma ic shoo ing execu ion is i al, o en ca ying subs an ial implica ions o season
esul s and po en ially he inancial heal h o clubs. In socce , he eam kicking i s is hough o heigh en psychological p essu e on
he opponen by being he i s o sco e, inc easing he s ess o alling behind (Baumeis e , 1984; Liebe man and Mon gome y, 1988;
Beilock and Ca , 2005; Jo de e al., 2007; A iely e al., 2009). This dynamic is o en ci ed as he basis o a i s -mo e ad an age.
Despi e conside able s udy, he discou se on a i s -mo e ad an age in penal y shoo ou s emains un esol ed. While he pio-
nee ing examina ion by Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a (2010) ound e idence o a sizable i s -mo e ad an age amoun ing o
oughly a 60:40 ad an age o he i s -kicking eam analyzing 129 socce shoo ou s, Koche e al. (2012), using a supe se o he i s
examina ion, epo ed non-signi ican esul s wi h poin s es ima es o oughly 53:47, co e ing 540 socce shoo ou s. In hei con-
clusions, Koche e al. (2012) called o a la ge sample app oach o clea ly answe his ques ion, s a ing ha one could only answe
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“[…] whe he a i s -mo e ad an age would become signi ican o whe he one would e en ob ain e idence o a second-mo e ad an age i
one we e able o collec da a on he kicking o de o many mo e shoo ou s in many mo e ou namen s.” Thei call highligh s he impo ance o
s a is ical powe , gi en he inconsis en esul s. Mo eo e , i emphasizes he need o analyze a b oade se o shoo ou s, because a low-
sco ing en i onmen , such as in ice hockey, may a o he second eam, as sugges ed by Kole e al. (2015).
The p esen analysis shows no signi ican i s - o second-mo e ad an age in ei he socce o ice hockey: The obse ed win a ios
o he i s and second mo e a e 50.2:49.8 in socce and 48.9:51.1 in ice hockey, sugges ing ha ea lie indings o an ad an age may,
a leas in pa , esul om selec ion bias o andom luc ua ions in smalle samples. Mean equi alence es s ejec ha he i s -mo e ’s
winning p obabili y de ia es by mo e han 1.6 pe cen age poin s in socce (1.8 pe cen age poin s when combined wi h da a om
Koche e al. (2012)) o 2.9 pe cen age poin s in hockey om a 50:50 spli , suppo ing he absence o a signi ican i s -mo e
ad an age. Addi ionally, he analysis e eals no signi ican gende di e ences in pe o mance unde p essu e, no any e idence in
socce o ice hockey ha lagging behind a ec s indi idual sho con e sion a es, consis en wi h he ma ch-le el indings.
This pape p ima ily con ibu es o he in es iga ions o i s -mo e ad an age in shoo ou s. Responding o he eplica ion chal-
lenges highligh ed by Koche e al. (2012) ega ding he ini ial s udy by Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a (2010), Palacios-Hue a
(2014, pp. 68-85) co obo a ed he ini ial indings o a 60:40 i s -kicking eam ad an age and epo ed a consis en i s -mo e
ad an age be o e and a e he 2003 ule change allowing he coin oss winne o choose whe he o s a he shoo ou . Simila ly,
Rudi e al. (2020) iden i ied a 55:45 p obabili y o ic o y o he i s -kicking eam ac oss 1,623 shoo ou s. In con as , Vollme e al.
(2024) ind no signi ican i s -mo e ad an age in 1,759 Eu opean shoo ou s. Among hese s udies wi h subs an ial da ase s, wo ou
o h ee epo a no able i s -mo e ad an age (Palacios-Hue a, 2014; Rudi e al., 2020), indica ing he issue emains un esol ed.
Smalle -scale s udies also con ibu e di e se indings. Da Sil a e al. (2018) obse ed a 59:41 i s -mo e ad an age in 232 socce
shoo ou s, wi h no pa allel inding in ennis ieb eaks. San os (2023) epo ed no signi ican i s -mo e ad an age in an analysis o
663 socce shoo ou s, a inding echoed by A ondel e al. (2019) in hei s udy o 252 F ench socce shoo ou s. Howe e , San os (2023)
inds ha while a i s -mo e ad an age is gene ally absen , in women’s compe i ions, he o de o shoo ing does in luence ou comes,
wi h he i s -shoo ing eam pa adoxically ha ing a educed win p obabili y, albei based on a limi ed da ase o 64 ins ances. Palacios-
Hue a (2014, pp. 164-173) examines a na u al expe imen in A gen ina du ing he 1988–89 season, whe e each ied ma ch was
ollowed by a penal y shoo ou o awa d bonus poin s. This se up inc eased he incen i es o eams o ain o shoo ou s. Analyzing
131 shoo ou s om ha season, Palacios-Hue a ound no signi ican ad an age o ei he he i s - o second-kicking eam, wi h aw
numbe s showing i s -kicking eams winning only abou 46 % o he ime. Despi e he limi ed sample size, hese esul s a e in e p e ed
as e idence ha p o essional playe s can mi iga e hei emo ional esponses h ough aining, p ac ice, and in es men s in men al
o i ude (Palacios-Hue a, 2014).
Anba cı e al. (2021) heo e ically demons a e ha s anda d shoo ou p ocedu es a e o de -dependen and ad oca e o al e -
na ing he o de based on in e im sco es. Howe e , summa izing da a om exis ing s udies (Koche e al., 2012; Palacios-Hue a,
2014), hey no e ha he i s -mo e ad an age appa en ly p esen in some coun y-samples diminishes in majo oo ball ou na-
men s as he sample size inc eases. Rela edly, Vandeb oek e al. (2018) demons a e ha he con lic ing esul s in he li e a u e
conce ning a i s -mo e ad an age can be a ibu ed o small sample sizes, as e ealed by hei heo e ical model inco po a ing
se e al psychological e ec s.
Su ey- esul s in Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a (2010) sugges ha playe s and coaches s ongly belie e in a i s -mo e
ad an age, wi h o e 90 % s a ing o p e e shoo ing i s when gi en he choice. Howe e , Kassis e al. (2021) nuanced his iew
by showing ha only 56.3 % o cap ains op ed o shoo i s a e winning he coin oss. While he e was no signi ican ad an age o
i s -kicking eams, winning he ini ial coin oss p o ided a dis inc 60:40 ad an age in he ou come o he 96 shoo ou s hey examined.
Unlike in socce , Kole e al. (2015) sugges ha lowe sco ing a es in ice hockey inc ease p essu e on he i s -shoo ing eam,
po en ially gi ing he second-shoo ing eam a ac ical ad an age i hei goalkeepe makes an ea ly sa e. A simila second-mo e
ad an age can also a ise in he heo e ical amewo k o Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a (2010, Online Appendix B) i he second
eam bene i s om a psychological edge, inc easing i s con e sion p obabili y due o ha ing mo e emaining a emp s a e he i s
eam’s ypically unsuccess ul opening sho . Kole e al. (2015) analyze 1,138 Na ional Hockey League (NHL) shoo ou s ollowing a
ule change ha allowed home eams o choose whe he o shoo i s . Thei indings show ha home eams op ing o shoo i s win
only 47.68 % o he ime, signi ican ly lowe han he 51.72 % win a e o home eams p e iously equi ed o shoo second. This
sugges s ha while shoo ing o de may in luence ou comes, eams did no adap op imally o he ule change—po en ially due o
o e con idence in hei sco ing abili ies (Kole e al., 2015). Addi ionally, hey ound ha he home eam’s win p obabili y d opped
below 50 % when gi en he choice o shoo i s . Howe e , when home eams chose o shoo second, hey e en won only 43.7 % o he
ime, con adic ing he idea o a second-mo e ad an age. The indings o he p esen pape align wi h Kole e al. (2015) in ha no
signi ican o de e ec was de ec ed.
A ondel e al. (2019), while no subs an ia ing a i s -mo e ad an age, highligh he ole o anxie y and s akes. They obse e ha
pe o mance in kicking is ad e sely impac ed no om he onse bu as he shoo ou p og esses, hin ing ha p essu e om being
behind mani es s a e he ini ial kick. This could e lec escala ing p essu e o he pa icipa ion o less adep playe s as he shoo ou
ex ends. Mo eo e , A ondel e al. (2019) pinpoin a decline in sco ing p obabili ies when a kick can de e mine he ma ch’s ou come,
highligh ing he impac o high s akes and he impending h ea o de ea .
Choking unde p essu e is obse ed in a hle es beyond jus shoo ou s (Genakos and Paglie o, 2012; Fe i e al., 2013; Genakos e al.,
2015; Gonz´
alez-Díaz and Palacios-Hue a, 2016; Cohen-Zada e al., 2017; Klein Teeselink e al., 2020; Büh en and S einbe g, 2019;
Büh en e al., 2024; Die l e al., 2025). Genakos and Paglie o (2012) s udy he impac o in e im ankings on pe o mance in p o-
essional weigh li ing ou namen s. Thei indings show ha a hle es ailing jus behind he leade s end o ake g ea e isks when
in o med o hei ela i e s anding, while hose u he behind do no . Mo eo e , compe i o s sys ema ically unde pe o m when
D. Pipke
Jou nal o Economic Psychology 108 (2025) 102816
2
anked close o he op, despi e ha ing highe incen i es o excel. A simila ou come is obse ed by Genakos e al. (2015) in di ing
spo s. Cohen-Zada e al. (2017) ind ha men consis en ly choke unde compe i i e p essu e in p o essional ennis, while esul s o
women a e mixed—an asymme y ha aligns wi h indings om alpine skiing by Büh en e al. (2024). Büh en and S einbe g (2019)
ind e idence o a second-mo e ad an age in a ield expe imen on ama eu ennis, linking i o high sel -es eem as a psychological
ai . Die l e al. (2025) analyze “clu ch ime” in p o essional baske ball— he inal minu es o a game when he ou come is unce ain
and p essu e is a i s peak—as an objec i e measu e o pe o mance p essu e. Thei indings sugges ha playe s who pe o m well in
hese high-s akes momen s ea n a sala y p emium. Finally, Gonz´
alez-Díaz and Palacios-Hue a (2016) analyze chess ma ches whe e
he colo assignmen is andomly de e mined. Despi e each playe ha ing an equal numbe o games wi h whi e and black pieces, hey
ind ha he playe s a ing wi h he whi e pieces, which a e s a egically ad an ageous, has abou a 60:40 winning p obabili y −
likely due o he inc eased likelihood o leading du ing he ma ch.
Beyond choking, spo s da a ha e been used o s udy a ious psychological phenomena, including momen um e ec s (Mo gule
e al., 2019), beha io in social dilemmas (B ouwe and Po e s, 2019), e o in eams (Chapsal and Vilain, 2019), e e ence-
dependen decision making (Ba ling e al., 2015; Allen e al., 2017; Soe e en , 2022), as well as b oade implica ions o (na-
ional) well-being (Ka e sos and Szymanski, 2010; Janhuba, 2019).
Sec ion 2 p esen s he da ase ’s composi ion and cha ac e is ics. Following his, Sec ion 3 p esen s esul s. Sec ion 4 concludes.
2. Da a
I used web-sc aping echniques o collec socce and ice hockey ma ch da a om Flashsco e.com (Li espo L d., Czech Republic),
aiming o he b oades possible co e age ac oss ma ches, coun ies, and leagues. The da ase includes all a ailable da a up o he
concluded 2023–24 season.
Socce shoo ou s a e ela i ely a e, as league ma ches can end in d aws, and in e na ional club compe i ions o en esol e ies
h ough home-and-away o ma s. O 2,066,011 socce ma ches in he Flashsco e da ase (1970–2024), only 18,373 (0.89 %) ended in a
penal y shoo ou . In men’s majo knockou cup compe i ions in England (Foo ball Associa ion Challenge (FA) Cup, English Foo ball
League (EFL) Cup, Foo ball Associa ion (FA) Communi y Shield), F ance (Coupe de F ance), Ge many (Deu sche Fußball-Bund (DFB)
Pokal), I aly (Coppa I alia), and Spain (Copa del Rey), 1,782 o 30,848 ma ches (5.78 %) concluded wi h a shoo ou . In con as ,
shoo ou s a e mo e common in No h Ame ican ice hockey, whe e hey a e used o decide egula -season games. O 93,668 eco ded
US and Canadian ice hockey ma ches, 6,974 (7.45 %) we e decided by a shoo ou .
His o ical ma ch da a on Flashsco e.com ypically includes only basic de ails, such as eam names, da es, and inal sco es. Howe e ,
de ailed eco ds o penal y shoo ou ac ions equi ed o his analysis a e mo e limi ed. The main da ase consis s o 7,116 socce
shoo ou s in which he epo ed kick sequences align wi h he documen ed ou comes on he sou ce websi e and comply wi h he
F´
ed´
e a ion In e na ionale de Foo ball Associa ion (FIFA) ules o shoo ou conclusions. The da a p ima ily co e s shoo ou s a e he
2003 ule change, which allowed he coin oss winne o choose he shoo ing o de , eplacing he p e ious sys em. whe e he oss
di ec ly de e mined i . The esul ing endogenei y issue (also see Bhaska , 2009; Palacios-Hue a, 2014) is discussed in Online Appendix
Sec ion A.1.
Gi en da a quali y a iabili y and ule di e ences ac oss leagues and seasons, he ice hockey analysis ocuses on No h-Ame ican
leagues (see Online Appendix Sec ion A.2). The analysis includes U.S. leagues— he Na ional Hockey League (NHL), Ame ican Hockey
League (AHL) (since he 2014–15 season), and he ECHL ( o me ly named he “Eas Coas Hockey League” un il 2003, included since
he 2015–16 season)—as well as Canadian leagues— he On a io Hockey League (OHL), Wes e n Hockey League (WHL), and Quebec
Majo Junio Hockey League (QMJHL). These leagues ollow la gely consis en ules, including a bes -o - h ee shoo ou o ma and
home eam disc e ion on shoo ing o de (NHL, 2023; OHL, 2023). The da ase comp ises 4,407 shoo ou s since 2010, wi h a ound 400
pe yea om 2014 onwa d, excep du ing pandemic-a ec ed seasons (see Table A.7; Online Appendix). Online Appendix Sec ion A.1
p o ides addi ional in o ma ion abou shoo ou ules in bo h spo s.
3. Resul s
This sec ion analyzes he i s -mo e ad an age in socce and ice hockey, es ing he null hypo hesis ha bo h he i s - and second-
mo ing eams ha e an equal 50:50 chance o winning. Applying he heo e ical amewo k by Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a (2010,
Online Appendix B) sugges s ha shoo ou dynamics could di e be ween he wo spo s.
In he basic e sion o hei model, he i s eam (F) always has an ad an age o e he second eam (D) because he p obabili y o
sco ing when ied o leading (p) is assumed o be highe han he p obabili y o sco ing unde p essu e (q), wi h p and q iden ical o
bo h eams. In he case o a socce penal y shoo ou , whe e he con e sion a e is abou 75 % (see Online Appendix Sec ion A.7), he
model assumes ha he second-shoo ing eam is ypically unde p essu e a e he i s a emp , as bo h ans and eamma es expec a
goal. A missed sho can c ea e an almos insu moun able disad an age, inc easing he likelihood o choking and a esul ing ad an age
o he i s -mo e , ep esen ed by he assump ion ha q < p.
Howe e , allowing p and q o di e be ween he i s and second eams in oduces he possibili y o al e na i e ou comes
(Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a, 2010). Theo e ically, his could be ele an in ice hockey shoo ou s, whe e he con e sion a e is
much lowe (~30 %) and he second eam o en akes i s i s sho wi h he sco e s ill ied. In such a low-sco ing con es , each
emaining a emp is mo e likely iewed as an oppo uni y o gain an ad an age a he han an absolu e necessi y o sco e, sugges i e
o a di e en psychological dynamic. Thus, in many shoo ou s, he second eam may pe cei e an ad an age, gi en ha i has mo e
oppo uni ies o sco e a e he i s eam’s equen ly unsuccess ul a emp . I hese dynamics gene a e psychological momen um, he
D. Pipke
Jou nal o Economic Psychology 108 (2025) 102816
3
second eam’s con e sion p obabili y a a a o able in e media e sco e p
D
may signi ican ly exceed ha o he i s eam (p
F
),
po en ially leading o a second-mo e ad an age.
3.1. O e iew
Table 1 p o ides a summa y o shoo ou da a ac oss a ious compe i ion ca ego ies o bo h spo s, de ailing he numbe o
shoo ou s (column 1), he ela i e equency o i s - mo e ic o ies (column 2), and he esul s o binomial es s agains he null
hypo hesis o a 50:50 spli . In socce , he i s -kicking eam wins 50.2 % o he ime (p =0.785) ac oss 7,116 ma ches in he Flashsco e
da a. Focusing on compe i ions s udied in Koche e al. (2012) (“KLS”) in he Flashsco e da a, he i s -kicking eam wins 50.4 % o
shoo ou s (p =0.873). In he supplemen ed da a wi h p e-2003 shoo ou s om Koche e al. (2012), he i s -kicking eam wins 50.4 %
(p =0.478) ac oss all 7,627 shoo ou s. The e is no signi ican di e ence (p =0.379, wo-sided - es ) in he p opo ion o ma ches won
by i s -kicking eams be ween he p e-2003 pe iod (M =0.533, N =540) and he pos -2003 pe iod (M =0.507, N =611) in he KLS
compe i ions.
In ice hockey, he i s eam wins 48.9 % o shoo ou s (p =0.148), wi h simila esul s ac oss compe i ion g oups. Howe e , in he
subg oup o 825 AHL ma ches, he e is some e idence o an ad an age o he second-shoo ing eam (p =0.037) (see Online Appendix
Table A.9).
A d awback o elying solely on adi ional signi icance es s, whe e he null hypo hesis assumes no e ec , is ha while he absence
o an e ec can be ejec ed, i is no s a is ically suppo ed (Lakens, 2017). Misin e p e a ion o es ou comes o en leads o e oneous
asse ions in esea ch sugges ing no e ec based solely on a non-signi ican es esul , which may equen ly esul om insu icien
sample size. Table A.6 in he Online Appendix shows ha mean equi alence es s (Dinno, 2017; Lakens, 2017) ejec he idea o a
subs an ial i s -mo e ad an age. Speci ically, hese es s ejec he hypo hesis ha he i s -mo e ’s winning p obabili y de ia es by
mo e han 1.6 pe cen age poin s in socce (1.8 pe cen age poin s when including he Koche e al. (2012) da a) and 2.9 pe cen age
poin s in hockey om a 50:50 spli , a a 1 % signi icance le el.
Table 1
Shoo ou da a.
Compe i ion/Na ion G oup [1] Numbe o shoo ou s [2] Rela i e F eq. Fi s Team Wins [3] wo-sided p- alue (binomial es )
Socce (Flashsco e da a). —
UEFA Top 5 1444 0.502 0.895
UEFA Top 5 +A gen ina & B azil 2124 0.504 0.745
UEFA Top 10 1953 0.508 0.469
UEFA Top 10 +A gen ina & B azil 2633 0.508 0.413
KLS Compe i ions 623 0.504 0.873
Eu opean Club Compe i ions 192 0.536 0.348
Wo ld Cup 78 0.526 0.734
Eu o 80 0.450 0.434
ABBA T ials 44 0.568 0.451
All Penal y Shoo ou s 7116 0.502 0.785
Supplemen ed wi h KLS (2012) da a. —
KLS Compe i ions (all) 1151 0.520 0.195
KLS Compe i ions (p e-2003) 540 0.533 0.132
All Penal y Shoo ou s 7627 0.504 0.478
Ice Hockey (Flashsco e da a). —
Selec ed No h-Ame ican Leagues 4407 0.489 0.148
NHL 1663 0.494 0.659
No es: The able summa izes he quan i y o socce and ice hockey shoo ou s, ca ego ized by compe i ion g oups o coun ies. The i s column shows
he o al shoo ou s, he second de ails he p opo ion won by he i s -kicking (socce ) o i s -shoo ing (ice hockey) eam, and he hi d column
p esen s he p- alue om a wo-sided binomial es o a 50:50 win p obabili y. Compe i ions include you h and women’s a ian s like he Eu o U17
Women. The UEFA Top 5 (based on 2023 Men’s anking) co e s England, Spain, Ge many, I aly, and F ance, while he Top 10 adds he Ne he lands,
Po ugal, Belgium, Sco land, and Aus ia. KLS e e s o compe i ions s udied by Koche , Lenz, and Su e (2012), including he Eu o, Champions
League, Eu opa League, Eu opa Con e ence League, Wo ld Championship, Copa Am´
e ica, Gold Cup, A ica Cup o Na ions, and Asia Cup, as well as
na ional ou namen s like Ge many’s DFB Pokal, England’s FA Cup, EFL Cup, and FA Communi y Shield, and Spain’s Copa del Rey. Eu opean (UEFA)
Club Compe i ions ea u e he Champions League, Champions League Women, Eu opa Con e ence League, Eu opa League, and he UEFA Supe Cup.
ABBA e e s o a penal y shoo ou sequence es ed in a ious compe i ions like he 2017 UEFA Eu opean Unde -17 and Unde -19 Championships,
English EFL Cup, EFL T ophy, EFL playo ma ches du ing he 2017–18 season, and he Ne he lands’ KNVB Beke o 2018–2019. Socce s a is ics
below “Supplemen ed wi h KLS (2012) da a” include he da a om Koche , Lenz, and Su e (2012).
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3.2. Reg ession analysis
The esul s emain obus when using p obi eg ession analyses.
1
Fig. 1 plo s he ma ginal e ec s o an indica o a iable se o one
i a eam s a ed he shoo ou , wi h he dependen a iable being a bina y ou come indica ing whe he he eam won (one) o los
(ze o). The igu e p esen s esul s o mul iple da a subse s lis ed on he y-axis, wi h wo eg ession speci ica ions o each subse . Bo h
speci ica ions ( ed and blue ma ke s) con ol o home eam s a us, while he blue ma ke s addi ionally adjus o ela i e eam
s eng h using p e-ma ch be ing odds o in e each eam’s objec i e winning p obabili y. This p obabili y is compu ed as he in e se o
a eam’s odds di ided by he sum o he in e ses o he odds o all h ee possible ou comes—home win, d aw, and away win— hus
inco po a ing he bookmake ’s ma gin:
winp obhome =
1
Oddshome
1
Oddshome +1
Oddsd aw +1
Oddsaway
(1)
wi h an analogous calcula ion o he away eam. Since each shoo ou con ibu es wo obse a ions—one o he home eam and
one o he away eam—s anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he ma ch le el, ollowing Koche e al. (2012).
Consis en wi h he simple s a is ical es s, he eg ession esul s e eal no signi ican i s -mo e ad an age. Mo eo e , accoun ing
o ela i e eam abili y u he inc eases he p- alue in he socce shoo ou sample.
Fig. 1. P obi - eg ession esul s: i s -mo e ad an age in penal y shoo ou s.
1
The co esponding eg ession ables a e a ailable in Sec ion A.4 o he Online Appendix.
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3.3. Addi ional esul s on gende , he ABBA pa e n, and indi idual sho s
The da a u he allows o con ibu e o se e al discussions in he exis ing li e a u e. Fi s , while San os (2023) epo ed a no able
second-mo e ad an age in bo h women’s and you h socce , analyzing 64 and 128 shoo ou s, espec i ely, he p esen da a shows
di e en esul s. In 342 women’s socce compe i ions, he i s -mo ing eam wins 172 imes (50.3 %, p =0.957). In you h socce
shoo ou s, he i s -kicking eam p e ails in 130 ou o 277 cases (46.9 %, p =0.336).
Second, be ween 2017 and 2019, an al e na i e o ma , whe e eams al e na e in an A,B,B,A pa e n, was es ed in a ious
compe i ions o add ess conce ns abou an inhe en ad an age o kicking i s . In 44 shoo ou s ollowing his sequence, he i s -kicking
eam won 56.8 % o he ime (25 shoo ou s), wi h no s a is ically signi ican de ia ion om a 50:50 spli (p =0.451).
Thi d, Fig. 2 illus a es he p opo ion o i s -mo e ic o ies in penal y shoo ou s ac oss socce and ice hockey om p e-2014 o
mid 2024. The end is non-sys ema ic, wi h win a es o i s -mo e s luc ua ing sligh ly abo e o below 50 % ac oss di e en yea s,
simila o esul s in Koche e al. (2012) o ea lie yea s. Binomial es s suppo hese obse a ions (see Online Appendix Table A.7). In
socce ma ches, no signi ican i s - o second-mo e ad an age is obse ed in any yea , wi h he lowes p- alue eco ded in 2020 (p =
0.091). In ice hockey, mos yea s show no ad an age, bu in 2019, he da a sugges a second-mo e ad an age (p =0.048). These
luc ua ions appea andom, unde sco ing he need o la ge samples o educe he isk o spu ious indings.
Fou h, despi e he common pe cep ion o shoo ou s as andom, winning p obabili ies de i ed om p e-ma ch odds s ongly
p edic shoo ou ou comes (see Online Appendix Sec ion A.4). This aligns wi h K ume ’s (2020) inding ha highe - anked eams a e
mo e likely o win.
Fi h, eg ession analyses in Online Appendix Sec ion A.3 show no signi ican e ec o a eam’s ailing o leading s a us on
con e sion a es. Addi ionally, he con e sion a e on po en ially game-deciding kicks does no di e (column 1, Table A.1), con-
as ing wi h indings by A ondel e al. (2019). Consis en wi h he ma ch-le el inding in socce ha a o i es win mo e o en, eams
a o ed by p e-ma ch be ing odds also ha e highe sco ing p obabili ies on indi idual kicks (column 2). The indings o indi idual
sho s in ice hockey ega ding ailing, leading, and decisi e a emp s quali a i ely align wi h hose in socce bu do no show highe
con e sion a es o a o ed eams.
4. Conclusion
Con lic ing indings in he li e a u e unde sco e he need o la ge-sample e idence on he i s -mo e ad an age in penal y
shoo ou s, whe e psychological p essu e may cause second-mo e s o choke (Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a, 2010; Koche e al.,
2012; A ondel e al., 2019). Howe e , in a low-sco ing shoo ou like in ice hockey, g ea e p essu e may heo e ically all on he i s -
mo e , po en ially gi ing he second-mo e an ad an age (Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a, 2010; Kole e al., 2015). The p esen
analysis inds no clea ad an age o ei he he i s - o second-mo e in ei he spo . Fu he mo e, equi alence es ing (Lakens, 2017)
dismisses he hypo hesis o a i s -mo e winning p obabili y di e ing by mo e han 1.8 pe cen age poin s in socce (and 2.9 pe -
cen age poin s in ice hockey) om a 50:50 a io, p o iding e idence o non-exis ence a he han me ely highligh ing a lack o e i-
dence. This s udy’s da a, which p ima ily consis o socce penal y shoo ou s om 2011 onwa d, con as s wi h ea lie esea ch ha
ocused on ma ches om 2003 and ea lie , da ing back o he in oduc ion o penal y shoo ou s in 1970. These ecen da a e lec he
Fig. 2. Sha e o penal y shoo ou s won by i s -shoo ing eam o e ime.
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Jou nal o Economic Psychology 108 (2025) 102816
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cu en , highly p o essionalized s a e o global socce . While i emains unclea whe he he passage o ime has in luenced he
p esence o a i s -mo e ad an age, p e ious esea ch (Koche e al., 2012; San os, 2023) has al eady cas doub on i s signi icance in
shoo ou s om hei in oduc ion h ough he ea ly 2000 s, using la ge da ase s han hose employed by Apes eguia and Palacios-
Hue a (2010). I appea s plausible ha p o essional clubs, esponding o he in luen ial indings o Apes eguia and Palacios-Hue a
(2010), ha e u he diminished any i s -mo e ad an age—i i e e exis ed—by adop ing s a egies aimed a equalizing winning
p obabili ies, such as in es ing in men al aining o enhance playe s’ esilience ega dless o shoo ing o de (Thelwell e al., 2005;
Vealey, 2007; Palacios-Hue a, 2014). Howe e , his emains specula i e, as he p esen analysis inds no signi ican di e ence in i s -
mo e ad an ages be ween ecen and his o ical ma ches. Fu u e esea ch should explo e con ex s whe e i s -mo e ad an ages a ise
in dynamic con es s and assess how leading o lagging in luences mo i a ion ac oss asks o a ying complexi y as penal y shoo ou s
may o e an o e simpli ied analogy o mo e complex p ocesses, such as inno a ion in i ms.
Decla a ion o Gene a i e AI and AI-assis ed echnologies in he w i ing p ocess
Du ing he p epa a ion o his wo k he au ho used G amma ly P o and Cha GPT in o de o imp o e he language o he pape .
A e using hese se ices, he au ho e iewed and edi ed he con en as needed and akes ull esponsibili y o he con en o he
publica ion.
Acknowledgmen
I hank Ma in Koche , Ma c V. Lenz, and Ma hias Su e o gene ously sha ing hei da a on socce penal y shoo ou s. I also hank
Uwe Jensen, wo anonymous e iewe s, and he edi o o hei aluable commen s. The da a and code o eplica ing he analyses o
his pape a e a ailable on he Open Science F amewo k a os .io/e3zdw/ (DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/E3ZDW).
Appendix A. Supplemen a y da a
Supplemen a y da a o his a icle can be ound online a h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816.
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