Ho elle , Lucca; S eine , Nils D.
A icle — Published Ve sion
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public:
AConsequence o Poli ical Aliena ion?
Poli ische Vie eljah essch i
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ho elle , Lucca; S eine , Nils D. (2024) : Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man
Public: AConsequence o Poli ical Aliena ion?, Poli ische Vie eljah essch i , ISSN 1862-2860,
Sp inge Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, Wiesbaden, Vol. 65, Iss. 4, pp. 667-690,
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CRITICAL PAPER
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11615-024-00541-2
Poli ische Vie eljah essch i (2024) 65:667–690
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public:
A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion?
Lucca Ho elle · Nils D. S eine
Recei ed: 22 Sep embe 2023 / Re ised: 21 Feb ua y 2024 / Accep ed: 6 Ma ch 2024 / Published online:
10 Ap il 2024
© The Au ho (s) 2024
Abs ac Why do indi iduals in democ a ic na ions sympa hize wi h au oc a ic
leade s om ab oad? In his a icle, we add ess his gene al ques ion wi h ega d o
Ge mans’ a i udes owa d Vladimi Pu in in he a e ma h o he Russian in asion
o Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022. Building on he in ui ion ha “ he enemy o my enemy
is my iend” and i s o maliza ion in balance heo y, ou s udy ocuses on he ole
o poli ical aliena ion a home. To s udy his ole comp ehensi ely, we conside
se e al ace s o poli ical aliena ion: a lack o us in poli ical ins i u ions, low
suppo o democ acy as a egime, a sense o es angemen om public discou se,
and an inclina ion owa d conspi acy hinking. Using longi udinal analyses on da a
om he Ge man Longi udinal Elec ion S udy panel, we p o ide empi ical e idence
consis en wi h ou a gumen ha poli ical aliena ion—pa icula ly in e ms o low
poli ical us and a p ocli i y o conspi acy hinking—d i es sympa hies o Pu in
and his egime. Agains he backd op o moun ing a emp s by Russia and o he
au oc a ic powe s o in luence discou ses in Wes e n socie ies ia some segmen s
o socie y, ou indings illumina e one impo an sou ce o sympa hy o Pu in and,
po en ially, o eign au oc a s mo e b oadly.
Keywo ds Public opinion · Fo eign policy a i udes · Vladimi Pu in · Poli ical
aliena ion · Russo-Uk aine wa
Lucca Ho elle
Depa men o Social Sciences, Johann Wol gang Goe he-Uni e si y F ank u , F ank u , Ge many
E-Mail: Ho [email p o ec ed]
Nils D. S eine
Depa men o Poli ical Science, Johannes Gu enbe g Uni e si y (JGU) Mainz, Mainz, Ge many
E-Mail: S eine @poli ik.uni-mainz.de
K
668 L. Ho elle , N. D. S eine
Sympa hien ü Pu in in de deu schen Ö en lichkei : eine Folge
poli ische En emdung?
Zusammen assung Wa um sympa hisie en Indi iduen in demok a ischen Lände n
mi au ok a ischen Füh e n aus dem Ausland? In diesem A ikel be assen wi uns
mi diese allgemeinen F age mi Blick au die Eins ellungen de Deu schen ge-
genübe Wladimi Pu in nach dem ussischen Einma sch in die Uk aine im Feb ua
2022. Ausgehend on de In ui ion, dass „ein Feind eines Feindes ein F eund is “
und ih e Fo malisie ung in de sozialpsychologischen Balance heo ie, konzen ie
sich unse e S udie au die Rolle poli ische En emdung. Um diese Rolle um as-
send zu un e suchen, be ach en wi meh e e Face en de poli ischen En emdung:
mangelndes Ve auen in poli ische Ins i u ionen, ge inge Un e s ü zung ü die De-
mok a ie als Regime, ein Ge ühl de En emdung om ö en lichen Disku s und
eine Neigung zu Ve schwö ungsglauben. Anhand on Längsschni analysen mi Da-
en des GLES-Panels lie e n wi empi ische Belege ü unse e These, dass poli ische
En emdung – insbesonde e in Fo m on mangelndem poli ischem Ve auen und
eine Neigung zu Ve schwö ungsdenken – Sympa hien ü Pu in und sein Regime
ö de . Vo dem Hin e g und de zunehmenden Ve suche Russlands und ande e au-
ok a ische Mäch e, Disku se in wes lichen Gesellscha en übe bes imm e Gesell-
scha ssegmen e zu beein lussen, beleuch en unse e E gebnisse eine wich ige Quelle
de Sympa hie ü Pu in und, po enziell, ausländische Au ok a en im Allgemeinen.
Schlüsselwö e Ö en liche Meinung · Außenpoli ische Eins ellungen · Wladimi
Pu in · Poli ische En emdung · Russisch-Uk ainische K ieg
1 In oduc ion
On 24 Feb ua y 2022, Russian mili a y o ces launched a ull-scale in asion o
Uk aine on o de s issued by Vladimi Pu in. Pu in’s decision has esul ed in ens o
housands o dea hs, caused Eu ope’s la ges e ugee c isis since he Second Wo ld
Wa , and has led o ex ensi e damages o ci ilian in as uc u e and he en i onmen .
The Russian in asion o Feb ua y 2022 was quickly and ha shly condemned by
o e whelming majo i ies o Ge many’s poli ical eli e and public alike (see Made
and Schoen 2023, p. 531). Ne e heless, e e since he a ack, a signi ican mino i y
has exp essed implici unde s anding o e en ou igh sympa hies o Pu in and his
decision o launch he wa . Such posi ions, o en coinciding wi h Russian na a i es,
a e equen ly oiced in p o-Russian demons a ions ac oss he coun y (N- 2022;
Schmi z 2023), by inge conspi acy g oups (Lambe y e al. 2022b; Ra hje e al.
2022), by poli icians o he adical igh Al e na i e o Ge many (A D; Schmid
2022), and by pa s o he coun y’s adical le (P a 2022). Albei being a clea (bu
some imes loud) mino i y, he he e ogeneous g oup o Pu in and Russia sympa hize s
has a ac ed a conside able amoun o public in e es . Despi e his, we s ill ha e li le
empi ical e idence on who exac ly holds hese posi ions and why. Mo e gene ally,
he e is li le esea ch on he b oade puzzle o wha makes ci izens in democ a ic
coun ies sympa hize wi h au oc a ic leade s om ab oad.
K
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public: A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion? 669
In his a icle, we aim o ill his gap and add o ou unde s anding o who in
Ge many (s ill) sympa hizes wi h Vladimi Pu in and his egime. To do so, we sys-
ema ize exis en bu sca e ed e idence om esea ch on (1) which pa ies, and
which pa ies’ o e s, hold p o-Russian s ances and (2) which indi iduals a e sus-
cep ible o consuming and belie ing na a i es om Russian in o ma ion ope a ions.
By connec ing hese ini ial indings wi h psychological insigh s om balance heo y
(Heide 1958), which holds ha humans s i e o consis ency in social ela ions,
we de i e ou gene al a gumen : We expec ha one o he main d i e s behind in-
di iduals s ill holding sympa he ic a i udes owa d Vladimi Pu in, one o he mos
p ominen “enemies” o he Ge man poli ical sys em, is a p o ound sense o poli ical
aliena ion om said sys em. This aliena ion, we p opose, mani es s i sel in eelings
ha go beyond low poli ical suppo in he na ow sense o poli ical us and ex-
end o an es angemen om democ acy as a poli ical o de , a sense o de achmen
om public discou ses, and an inclina ion owa d conspi acy hinking. We es his
expec a ion using panel su ey da a om he Ge man Longi udinal Elec ion S udy
(GLES), d awing on da a om be o e and a e he in asion o Feb ua y 2022.
Longi udinal eg ession analyses p o ide empi ical e idence consis en wi h ou
a gumen . We i s show ha he mo e aliena ed indi iduals el be o e he in asion,
he mo e posi i ely hey iew Vladimi Pu in (and his egime) pos in asion, wi h
all ou ace s o poli ical aliena ion being subs an ially associa ed wi h holding
mo e iendly a i udes owa d Pu in. To mo e u he owa d es ablishing a causal
e ec o poli ical aliena ion, we hen eg ess change in a ings o Pu in in he
wake o he in asion on p ein asion poli ical aliena ion. He e, we ob ain signi ican
e ec s o h ee o he ou ace s o poli ical aliena ion, wi h lack o poli ical
us and conspi acy men ali y—a po en mani es a ion o deep-sea ed dis us in
socie al and poli ical eli es—being especially consequen ial. We also p esen esul s
o a combined measu e o poli ical aliena ion, documen ing la ge o e all e ec s on
(change in) a ings o Pu in ha ump hose o o he a iables, including indi iduals’
co e pos u es on o eign policy and hei ideological o ien a ions.
This a icle makes se e al con ibu ions o exis ing esea ch as well as o ongoing
public discussions. To begin wi h, we p o ide an explana ion o he publicly deba ed
puzzle o why some Ge man ci izens s ill sympa hize wi h Pu in. In doing so, we
pu o h an answe o he mo e gene al—bu so a a ely s udied—ques ion o
why people li ing in democ a ic socie ies may hold sympa he ic a i udes owa d
o eign au oc a ic leade s and egimes. In imes o inc easing sys emic i al ies
be ween au oc acies and democ acies wo ldwide, his ques ion is especially u gen
o add ess. Ou answe ocuses on he ole o poli ical aliena ion because we belie e
ha his is an impo an and no el pe spec i e. A he same ime, his s udy adds
o ou unde s anding o he na u e and consequences o poli ical aliena ion. Mo e
speci ically, we p o ide a comp ehensi e concep ualiza ion o poli ical aliena ion,
encompassing ace s ha go beyond me e poli ical suppo , and empi ically es i s
consequences o o eign policy a i udes.
The emainde o his a icle is s uc u ed as ollows: We begin by discussing p e-
ious esea ch and i s implica ions o a i udes owa d he Pu in egime. A e ha ,
we u n o ou concep ualiza ion o poli ical aliena ion, p opose a gene al mecha-
nism linking i o sympa he ic a i udes owa d Pu in, and—applying his mechanism
K
670 L. Ho elle , N. D. S eine
o ou di e en ace s o poli ical aliena ion—de i e ou ou hypo heses. We hen
discuss da a and me hods be o e mo ing o he esul s. The inal sec ion p esen s
ou conclusions.
2 P e ious E idence on A i udes Towa d he Pu in Regime
To he bes o ou knowledge, sympa hies owa d Pu in and his egime ha e seldom
been examined in a ocused and sys ema ic way, nei he o Ge many no o o he
Wes e n democ acies. Thus, he main ques ion o his a icle—who holds such sym-
pa hies and why— emains la gely unanswe ed by he scien i ic communi y, despi e
g owing public in e es . Mo e gene ally, he e is li le sys ema ic esea ch on he
b oade ques ion o wha leads indi iduals o sympa hize wi h au oc a ic leade s
om ab oad ha we could buil on.1
Ne e heless, we can d aw on wo ela ed s ands o esea ch o o mula e expec-
a ions abou he a i udinal d i e s o sympa he ic iews owa d Pu in: esea ch on
which pa ies, and which pa ies’ o e s, ake p o-Russian posi ions and esea ch on
indi iduals’ suscep ibili y o Russian in o ma ion ope a ions.
S udies om he i s s and o esea ch sugges ha —while he posi ioning and
beha io o indi idual pa ies a e ob iously subjec o s a egic conside a ions and
speci ic con ex s (Wond eys 2023)—p o-Russian and p o-Pu in posi ions a e es-
pecially p e alen among pa ies on he inges o he poli ical spec um.2Albei
being o he wise ideologically he e ogeneous, hese pa ies and hei elec o a es
mainly seem o sha e sys em-c i ical, “an i-es ablishmen ,” and o en adical po-
si ions (Fishe 2021; Goloso 2020; Hooghe e al. 2024; Onde co 2019). They a e
he e o e some imes i ingly coined he “ ellow a ele s” o he K emlin’s gen-
e al an i-Wes e n and an i-democ a ic s ances (Snego aya 2022). In Ge many, p o-
Russian sen imen s ha e acco dingly been mos p ominen among he eli es and elec-
o a es o bo h he populis adical igh A D and he adical Le Pa y (Die Linke;
Made and Schoen 2023, pp. 540–541; Olsen 2018, p. 77; Wood 2021, pp. 778–779,
781–784). E en a e he ull-scale in asion o Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022, i.e., a ime
1To be su e, he e a e some s udies on a i udes owa d o eign leade s and, mo e b oadly, coun ies.
Howe e , his body o li e a u e has ended o ocus on a ia ion a he agg ega e le el, ha is, a ia ion
in o e all a i udes owa d di e en leade s (e.g., Goldsmi h e al. 2021) and coun ies (e.g., Nincic and
Russe 1979), whe eas ou a gumen is conce ned wi h a ia ion in a i udes owa d one au oc a ic leade
wi hin one coun y ac oss indi iduals. One impo an inding o his li e a u e is ha (pe cei ed) simila i y
be ween coun ies is associa ed wi h mo e posi i e a i udes (Nincic and Russe 1979; Tims and Mille
1986) and ha , mo e gene ally, in- s. ou -g oup psychology plays an impo an ole in shaping hose
(e.g., Johns on Cono e e al. 1980). The a gumen we de elop acco ds wi h his gene al iew. Seen om
his pe spec i e, ou balancing a gumen holds ha hose who eel a ached o he in-g oup o he domes ic
poli ical “mains eam” will come o iew i s o eign ad e sa ies as an ou -g oup and assess i nega i ely,
whe eas his will be no he case o aliena ed indi iduals who do no eel pa o his in-g oup in he i s
place. Ha ing poin ed ou hese gene al pa allels o his b oade li e a u e, we p oceed by e iewing s udies
mo e na owly ocused on he case o Pu in and con empo a y Russia.
2Much o his exis ing esea ch ocuses on s ances owa d he coun y o Russia a he han i s poli ical
sys em o leade ship speci ically. Howe e , as we show, a i udes owa d Pu in, his egime, and Russia
co ela e s ongly, allowing us o de i e gene al expec a ions om hese esul s as well.
K
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public: A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion? 671
when s a egic conside a ions seem especially likely o shape pa y posi ioning on
Russia (Wond eys 2023), ep esen a i es o he A D and, albei o a lesse ex en ,
he Le Pa y con inued o publicly oice unde s anding o implici suppo o
he Russian egime (A zheime 2023;P a 2022;Schmid 2022; Wond eys 2023,
pp. 4–5). Wi h ega d o a i udes owa d Pu in, in pa icula he o e s o populis
adical igh pa ies ha e been shown o hold ela i ely posi i e a i udes (Huang
2020; Le e man 2018; Sil e and Mo cus 2021; Wike e al. 2022).
Acco dingly, exis ing esea ch has paid special a en ion o he sympa hies owa d
he Pu in egime p e alen among la ge pa s o he Wes e n adical igh , iden i ying
an au ho i a ian–na ionalis ejec ion o he libe al o de as an impo an ideological
simila i y (Michael 2019; Wond eys 2023, p. 2). Howe e , while ideological simi-
la i ies migh well play a ole in d i ing sympa hies owa d Pu in among pa s o he
adical igh , hey o en seem o ake a back sea agains s a egic conside a ions and
con ex ual speci ics shaping pa y posi ioning on Russia (Wond eys 2023). Mo e
impo an , hey seem insu icien o ully explain sympa hies o he Pu in egime,
especially among cul u ally less au ho i a ian pa ies and hei elec o a es.
A second line o esea ch ocuses on he each and impac o messages ha dis-
semina e p o-Russian and ela ed an i-Wes e n na a i es among ci izens in Wes e n
democ acies. The K emlin ac i ely sp eads such na a i es o pola ize and des a-
bilize poli ical discou ses and o exe in luence on speci ically a ge ed segmen s
o socie y (Pome an se 2016; Snego aya and Wa anabe 2021). Resul s om hese
s udies poin in a simila di ec ion: These na a i es a e mainly consumed and be-
lie ed among indi iduals sha ing an aliena ion om he cu en poli ical sys em. This
aliena ion mani es s i sel in low poli ical us and low sa is ac ion wi h democ acy,
inge poli ical ideologies, o a b oade conspi acy men ali y (e.g., Helmus e al.
2020; Hjo h and Adle -Nissen 2019; Radni z 2022; Snego aya and Wa anabe 2021).
In su ey expe imen s ielded in Ge many, o example, Made and colleagues ha e
shown ha ci izens “who a e es anged om oday’s libe al democ acies” (Made
e al. 2022, p. 1734) a e mo e likely o be in luenced by p o-Russian o an i-Wes e n
na a i es o igina ing om Russian sou ces. Likewise, obse a ional s udies indica e
ha p o-K emlin disin o ma ion and na a i es a e mos widesp ead among Ge mans
showing signs o poli ical aliena ion (Lambe y e al. 2022a; 2022b; Ra hje e al.
2022; Smi no a and Win e 2021;Smi no ae al.2022).
Taken oge he , hese pieces o e idence allow o mula ion o a gene al expec-
a ion abou who akes Pu in- iendly posi ions in Ge many (and in o he Wes e n
democ acies as well): These a i udes should be especially p e alen among indi id-
uals who, o di e en easons, a e aliena ed om hei democ a ic sys ems. This
poli ical aliena ion mani es s i sel in a eeling o deep-sea ed disenchan men om
he poli ical sys em, i s mains eam eli es, and i s discou ses.
3 The Role o Poli ical Aliena ion
Bu how is his poli ical aliena ion linked o Pu in- iendly a i udes? We build ou
heo e ical a gumen on psychological insigh s om balance heo y (Ca w igh and
Ha a y 1956;Heide 1958). Balance heo y holds ha humans s i e o consis ency
K
672 L. Ho elle , N. D. S eine
Fig. 1 Applica ion o balance
heo y o sympa hies owa d
Pu in
in social ela ions, and, in his sense, i can be seen as one applica ion o he b oade
heo y o cogni i e dissonance (Fes inge 1957). The idea o balance can be applied
o iads in ol ing wo pe sons and an impe sonal en i y o o ela ionships among
h ee ac o s (o mo e). A iad o h ee pe sons A, B, and C is in balance when
all h ee hold posi i e ela ions wi h one ano he — e lec ing he amilia idea ha
“a iend o a iend is a iend.” F om he pe spec i e o pe son A, balance will
also be achie ed when she dislikes B, B has a con lic ual ela ion wi h C, and
A likes C (Fig. 1). This cap u es he common saying ha “ he enemy o my enemy
is my iend.” Expe imen al psychological esea ch has shown ha we humans
indeed eac in his way and will come o “like someone who dislikes someone
we dislike” (A onson and Cope 1968, p. 12). Rela edly, esea ch on he poli ical
domain indica es ha indi iduals who iew hei poli ical sys em as illegi ima e
iew (domes ic) iola o s o said sys em’s no ms mo e posi i ely (Hahl e al. 2018).
Balance heo y has also been employed o unde s and ne wo ks o ela ions be ween
domes ic and o eign poli ical ac o s (see Kinne and Maoz 2023).
We p opose ha balance logic p o ides a use ul heo e ical ounda ion o unde -
s and he o ma ion o Ge mans’ o ien a ions owa d Pu in (and, po en ially, owa d
i al au oc a s mo e b oadly). Balance heo y sugges s a s aigh o wa d and in-
ui i e mechanism o why Pu in migh appeal o poli ically aliena ed indi iduals
in Ge many (and elsewhe e), shown g aphically in Fig. 1. Acco dingly, indi iduals
aliena ed om he Ge man poli ical sys em may hink o Pu in (and, along wi h him,
his egime)—himsel an appa en “opponen ” o he sys em hey do no suppo —as
an ally in hei aliena ion and subsequen ly eel mo e posi i ely owa d Pu in and
his egime. This “enemy o my enemy is my iend” logic seems pa icula ly well
sui ed o explain why o he wise ideologically he e ogeneous g oups on he inges
o he poli ical spec um hold mo e posi i e iews owa d Pu in and his egime.
Na u ally, balance logic can also be applied in e e se, ollowing an equally simple
“ he enemy o my iend is my enemy” logic: Indi iduals who eel s ongly a ached
o he cu en Ge man poli ical sys em and i s eli es should be inclined do dislike
Pu in, as he is pe cei ed as a symbol o opposi ion o e en ou igh h ea o he sys-
em hey app o e o . Whe eas Pu in had been in low-le el con lic wi h he Ge man
poli ical sys em e en be o e he a ack on Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022, ou balance
a gumen seems especially likely o hold ue a e he a ack. The subsequen wa
K
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public: A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion? 673
made Pu in and his egime a clea ly isible and mo e h ea ening opponen o he
Ge man poli ical sys em. Thus, we expec poli ical aliena ion o be especially con-
sequen ial o a i udes owa d Pu in a e he in asion. A he same ime, his means
ha in aindi idual changes in a i udes owa d Pu in in esponse o he wa should
be con ingen on le els o poli ical aliena ion. Whe eas a i udes owa d Pu in likely
wo sened signi ican ly among hose wi h low le els o poli ical aliena ion, such
downwa d adjus men should be less likely he highe an indi idual’s le el o po-
li ical aliena ion. In ac , some o he mos s ongly aliena ed indi iduals may ha e
upda ed hei iews o Pu in in o a posi i e di ec ion in esponse o him becoming
a mo e isible opponen o he Ge man poli ical sys em.
Al hough he p esen ed e idence on he possible d i e s o Pu in- and Russia-
iendly posi ions poin s in his di ec ion, and a simple mechanism is able o explain
he linkage, o ou knowledge no subs an ial a emp s ha e been made a concep u-
alizing he kind o poli ical aliena ion ha could play a ole o sympa he ic a i udes
owa d Pu in and his egime. We sugges ha a ui ul s a ing poin o doing so
is he well-es ablished concep o poli ical suppo (Eas on 1975).D awingon he
concep ual di e en ia ion be ween mo e di use and mo e speci ic o ms o suppo ,
poli ical aliena ion may ake di e en o ms as well. In addi ion o “di use” suppo
o democ acy as a egime and us in speci ic ins i u ions ha a e co e aspec s o
poli ical suppo (No is 2017), ou concep ualiza ion in eg a es addi ional, and in
a way e en mo e deep-sea ed, o ms o poli ical aliena ion, i.e., eelings o alien-
a ion om public discou se and an inclina ion owa d conspi acy belie s. As ou
heo e ical amewo k ex ends beyond classic indica o s o he es ablished concep
o poli ical suppo , we e e o poli ical aliena ion as ou b oade umb ella concep .
A he co e o ou concep ualiza ion o aliena ion lies a lack o poli ical us .
Unde s ood as a co e ea u e o lacking suppo o mo e speci ic elemen s o he
poli ical sys em, especially i s co e ins i u ions, his kind o aliena ion ends o
be ela i ely widesp ead in democ a ic socie ies (Dal on 2004; No is 1999). We
expec a lack o poli ical us o be highly consequen ial o sympa hies owa d
Pu in: Following he “enemy o my enemy is my iend” logic, appa en opponen s
o he dis us ed sys em should appea mo e sympa he ic o poli ically aliena ed
indi iduals. This is especially likely o be he case in Ge many a e he ou b eak o
he wa : As discussed, Pu in immedia ely became one o , i no he mos p ominen
poli ical ac o in appa en con lic wi h he Ge man poli ical sys em. This ac alone
may well be eason enough o some ci izens o hold sympa hies o he opponen o
he sys em hey no longe us . In con as , hose wi h high us in Ge man poli ical
ins i u ions a e likely o pe cei e Pu in as an enemy o he sys em hey do suppo .
These us ing indi iduals likely ollowed and accep ed mains eam eli es’ messages
ha —ou lining how Pu in launched an unjus and unp o oked wa o agg ession and
was esponsible o wa c imes—cas him in o a decidedly nega i e ligh .
Mo eo e , low poli ical us has been shown o o en imes co ela e wi h low
suppo o incumben pa ies as well as o ing o populis and p o es pa ies on
bo h inges o he poli ical spec um (Hooghe 2017, pp. 623–624; Hooghe and
Dassone ille 2018; No is and Ingleha 2019, pp. 284–286). As discussed abo e,
hese pa ies and hei elec o a es o en ake sympa he ic s ances owa d Russia and
Pu in, despi e hei di e en ideologies. Ou a gumen is able o make sense o
K
674 L. Ho elle , N. D. S eine
his pa e n: I sugges s ha a lack o suppo o he exis ing poli ical o de is he
common oo o such sympa hies o he Pu in egime.3We hus o mula e ou i s
hypo hesis:
H1: The lowe one’s poli ical us , he mo e posi i e he a i ude owa d Pu in.
Going beyond a lack o us in ins i u ions, poli ical aliena ion can also mani es
i sel in a lack o suppo o mo e di use elemen s o he Ge man poli ical sys em,
i.e., i s democ a ic ideals, ideas, and no ms. Di usely aliena ed indi iduals may call
in o ques ion hese ounda ions o democ a ic go e nanceand, openly o mo e sub ly,
p e e au oc a ic al e na i es. Applying he logic om abo e o di usely aliena ed
indi iduals is again s aigh o wa d: Thei ejec ion o democ a ic go e nance should
make Russia, one o he mos p ominen and well-known au oc a ic sys ems, an
“ally” in hei aliena ion and an a ac i e al e na i e o he democ a ic sys em hey
do no suppo . Pu in, as he ace and hea o he Russian egime, should ac as
a symbol o he ejec ion o (libe al) democ acy. In ui i ely, he mo e open o
au ho i a ian ule indi iduals a e, he mo e lenien hei assessmen o he au oc a ic
Pu in egime should be. We hus p opose he ollowing hypo hesis:
H2: The lowe one’s suppo o democ acy as a egime ype, he mo e posi i e he
a i ude owa d Pu in.
Aliena ion om he poli ical sys em may well ex end o a eeling o disconnec
om he mains eam public discou ses wi hin ha sys em. Such a disconnec could
mani es in a eeling o one’s iews en i ely lacking ep esen a ion in mains eam
discou ses. Indi iduals who eel aliena ed in his way may mo e eadily discoun o
igno e messages om he mains eam public deba e. Fo a i udes owa d Pu in a -
e he wa , his eeling o disconnec om socie al discou se should be pa icula ly
ele an as well. So a , public discou se on he wa in Ge many has been domina ed
by s ong s ances agains Pu in and he wa in Uk aine as an ac o agg ession by
his egime (c . Made and Schoen 2023). P e ious esea ch has shown ha nega-
i e (posi i e) media co e age o o eign coun ies and hei leade s can nega i ely
(posi i ely) in luence a i udes owa d he po ayed coun ies among ecipien s (Bal-
mas 2018;B ewe e al.2003; Ingenho and Klein 2018). Nonaliena ed indi iduals
a e he e o e likely o ha e accep ed he mains eam media’s decidedly nega i e
aming o Pu in. Following balance logic, such an e ec seems conside ably less
likely among aliena ed indi iduals. On he con a y, a eeling o disconnec om
mains eam discou se could ansla e in o a eeling o disconnec om he posi ions
a icula ed in i . I is he e o e plausible ha poli ically aliena ed indi iduals—who
eel hey a e no longe pa o mains eam discou se—a e mos likely o be unmo ed
by espec i e in o ma ion and messages and a e e en inclined o eel sympa hy o
3Fo ela ed e idence a he pa y le el, see he ecen s udy by Hooghe e al. (2024). These au ho s show
ha an an i-es ablishmen o ien a ion accoun s o much o he a ia ion in how “p o-Russian” a ious
Eu opean pa ies a e.
K
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public: A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion? 681
Lack o poli ical us
Lack o suppo o democ acy
Aliena ion om public discou se
Conspi acy men ali y
Poli ical aliena ion ( ac o )
Female
Educa ion: low
Educa ion: middle
Age: 34
Age: 35 49
Age: 50 65
Eas
Age: 34 # Eas
Age: 35 49 # Eas
Age: 50 65 # Eas
Russian speaking
An i A lan icism
Unila e alism
Isola ionism
Paci ism
Au ho i a ian posi ion
Ex eme le
Le
Righ
Ex eme igh
0 1 2 3 4 0 .1 .2 .3 .4
OLS: coe icien s Logi : AMEs
R²=0.24 R²=0.23 Pseudo R²=0.39 Pseudo R²=0.38
Fig. 4 P edic ing a ings o Pu in in May 2023. Le -hand side: Coe icien s om o dina y leas squa es
(OLS) eg essions wi h 95% ( hick) and 90% ( hin) con idence in e als. Righ -hand side: A e age
ma ginal e ec s (AMEs) wi h 95% ( hick) and 90% ( hin) con idence in e als om bina y logis ic eg es-
sions (ou come a iable: Pu in a ing o –5 o –1 coded as 0; Pu in a ing o 0 o +5 coded as 1). Pseudo-R2
on he igh -hand side e e s o McKel ey and Za oina. All independen a iables scaled om 0 o 1. N=
6820
e al. 2022). Howe e , se e al s udies in he immedia e a e ma h o he a ack
ound indica ions o a g owing con e gence in nega i e iews be ween indi iduals
posi ioned on he le and igh o he ideological spec um as well as suppo e s
o di e en pa ies in se e al Wes e n socie ies (e.g., Asadzade and Izadi 2022;
Bo dignon e al. 2022; Poush e and Connaugh on 2022; Wike e al. 2022; o an
excep ion, see Made and Schoen 2023, pp. 539–541). Howe e , con e gences ha e
no occu ed be ween g oups wi h di e en le els o poli ical aliena ion in Ge many.
This is ano he hin ha poli ical aliena ion may play a c ucial ole o sympa he ic
s ances owa d he Pu in egime.
5.2 Reg ession Analysis o Le els o Ra ings o Pu in
In Fig. 4, we p esen he esul s o ou i s se o eg essions o le els o (pos in a-
sion) a ings o Pu in in May 2023. The le -hand side p esen s coe icien s om OLS
eg essions using he g adual Pu in a ing as an ou come a iable. The igh -hand
side shows—using he bina y indica o as an ou come—a e age ma ginal e ec s on
he p obabili y o iew Pu in a o ably, calcula ed om bina y logis ic eg essions.
In bo h panels, we p esen esul s o ou main speci ica ion (in blue o , in he p in
e sion, da k g ay) alongside esul s o a speci ica ion wi h he combined poli ical
aliena ion ac o ins ead (in o ange o , in he p in e sion, ligh g ay).
K
682 L. Ho elle , N. D. S eine
All ou ace s o poli ical aliena ion a e posi i ely associa ed wi h mo e posi i e
iews o Pu in, bo h in he OLS and he logi model. As hypo hesized, he mo e
someone eels poli ically aliena ed, he highe hei a ing o Pu in, o espec i ely,
he highe he p obabili y ha hey ha e a neu al- o-posi i e iew o Pu in. Acco d-
ing o he OLS model, mo ing om he low o he high end o poli ical aliena ion
inc eases p edic ed a ings o Pu in by 1.3 o lack o poli ical us (H1), by 0.6 o
lack o suppo o democ acy (H2), by 0.5 o aliena ion om public discou se (H3),
and by 1.0 o conspi acy men ali y (H4). Simila ly, acco ding o he logi model,
he p edic ed p obabili y o a neu al- o-posi i e s ance owa d Pu in inc eases by
14 pe cen age poin s o lack o poli ical us , by 7 pe cen age poin s o lack o
suppo o democ acy, by 4 pe cen age poin s o aliena ion om public discou se,
and by 11 pe cen age poin s o conspi acy men ali y. Impo an ly, hese e ec s may
add up when indi iduals eel aliena ed along mo e han one ace .
The la ge o e all e ec o poli ical aliena ion is illus a ed by esul s om he
second speci ica ion based on he combined ac o sco e (which we also escaled o
ange om 0 o 1). Acco dingly, mo ing om he low o he high end o poli ical
aliena ion is associa ed wi h an inc ease in 3.2 poin s in he a ing o Pu in (OLS
model) and o 35% in he p obabili y o a neu al- o-posi i e iew o Pu in (logi
model). The a e age p edic ed p obabili y o iewing Pu in as iendly is 2.5% when
se ing poli ical aliena ion o 0, while i is 50.5% when se ing poli ical aliena ion
o 1.6I we se poli ical aliena ion o i s 10 h, 50 h, and 90 h pe cen ile alues, we
ge p obabili ies o 3.3%, 7.9%, and 22.1%, espec i ely.
F om he sociodemog aphic con ol a iables, speaking Russian a home s ands
ou , hough wi h a la ge ma gin o e o due o he small numbe o Russian speake s.
While lowe educa ion is associa ed wi h mo e Pu in- iendly iews in a model wi h
only sociodemog aphics (Fig. B1 in he online appendix), hese associa ions la gely
disappea when accoun ing o poli ical aliena ion. In addi ion, Pu in is iewed
mo e posi i ely among younge esponden s and by eas e n Ge mans (o all age
g oups). O he o eign policy pos u es, ejec ing mul ila e alism (i.e., unila e alism)
and coope a ion wi h he Uni ed S a es (an i-A lan icism) as well as a p e e ence
o Ge many o ocus on i s domes ic p oblems (isola ionism) a e associa ed wi h
a ing Pu in mo e posi i ely, as expec ed. Paci icism exhibi s a weake e ec and, i
any hing, is associa ed wi h mo e posi i e a ings o Pu in. Pa adoxical as i is, we
eason ha paci is s may be mo e hesi an o ake con on a ional a i udes owa d an
ob iously iolen dic a o ou o heigh ened ea s o mili a y escala ion. In addi ion,
holding mo e au ho i a ian policy posi ions is associa ed wi h a ing Pu in mo e
a o ably. E en condi ioning on all hese co a ia es, sel -placemen s a he ex eme
igh -wing emain associa ed wi h mo e posi i e iews o Pu in, whe eas he e is no
such endency o he ex eme le .
In Online Appendix D, we show ha one ob ains simila esul s when consid-
e ing a i udes owa d he Pu in egime mo e b oadly. To ha end, we d aw on
6In Fig. C1 o he online appendix, we p esen analogous indings om a logi model wi h a s ic e
de ini ion o p o-Pu in iews, coding only hose wi h an explici ly posi i e a ing (+1 o +5) as Pu in-
iendly. The esul s a e simila , al hough, na u ally, he co esponding p edic ed p obabili ies (1% and
27%, espec i ely) a e lowe , especially in he second scena io.
K
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public: A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion? 683
Lack o poli ical us
Lack o suppo o democ acy
Aliena ion om public discou se
Conspi acy men ali y
Poli ical aliena ion ( ac o )
Pu in a ing (wa e 21)
Pu in a ing (wa e 21) # Pu in a ing (wa e 21)
Female
Educa ion: low
Educa ion: middle
Age: -34
Age: 35-49
Age: 50-65
Eas
Age: -34 # Eas
Age: 35-49 # Eas
Age: 50-65 # Eas
Russian speaking
An i A lan icism
Unila e alism
Isola ionism
Paci ism
Au ho i a ian posi ion
Ex eme le
Le
Righ
Ex eme igh
-1 0 1 2 3
R²=0.48
R²=0.47
Fig. 5 P edic ing change in a ings o Pu in be ween Decembe 2021 and May 2023. Coe icien s om
o dina y leas squa es eg essions wi h 95% ( hick) and 90% ( hin) con idence in e als. All independen
a iables scaled om 0 o 1, excep o p ein asion a ing o Pu in in wa e 21 (measu ed on a scale om
–5 o +5). N= 6773
six i ems om wa e 23 (Oc obe –No embe 2023), including a ings o Pu in and
Russia and policy o ien a ions owa d he ela ionship wi h hem. Using he esul -
ing ac o sco e as a measu e o a i udes owa d he Pu in egime a la ge leads
o e y simila esul s as when we solely look a a ings o Pu in pe sonally. As
shown in Online Appendix F, esul s a e also simila when using a ings o Pu in in
wa es 22 (May–July 2022) and 23 (Oc obe –No embe 2022) ins ead o hose om
wa e 24 (May 2023). In all hese addi ional models, we ind all ou poli ical alien-
a ion a iables o be signi ican ly associa ed wi h Pu in- iendly iews, wi h lack o
poli ical us in pa icula and also conspi acy men ali y exhibi ing somewha la ge
e ec s. Mo eo e , we consis en ly ind la ge o e all e ec s o poli ical aliena ion
when using he combined ac o .
5.3 Reg ession Analysis o Change in Ra ings o Pu in
In a nex s ep, we u n o change in a ings o Pu in du ing he wa , calcula ed as
he di e ence be ween pos in asion (wa e 24) and p ein asion (wa e 21) a ings
o Pu in. Again, we show esul s o ou main speci ica ion wi h he indi idual
indica o s o poli ical aliena ion (in blue o , in he p in e sion, da k g ay) and
om a speci ica ion wi h he combined measu e o poli ical aliena ion (in o ange
o , in he p in e sion, ligh g ay). The coe icien s om he OLS eg essions a e
showninFig.5. The ou aliena ion a iables a e all posi i ely signed, and h ee
o hem exhibi s a is ically signi ican e ec s—wi h lack o poli ical us showing
K
684 L. Ho elle , N. D. S eine
he la ges e ec , ollowed by conspi acy men ali y and hen aliena ion om public
discou se.
Gi en ha a ings o Pu in de e io a ed on a e age (Fig. 2and Fig. A1 in he online
appendix), i is mo e na u al o hink abou how he p edic o s p e en a downwa d
adjus men o a i udes owa d Pu in, a he han o hink abou how hey end o
inc ease he amoun o upwa d adjus men .7This downwa d adjus men was, on
a e age, 1.3 scale poin s smalle among hose comple ely lacking poli ical us
(compa ed o hose wi h maximum us ), 0.55 scale poin s smalle o hose wi h
maximum alues on conspi acy men ali y (compa ed o hose wi h minimum alues
on conspi acy men ali y), and 0.22 scale poin s smalle among hose ully ag eeing
ha people like hem would no longe be allowed o eely exp ess hei opinions
in public (compa ed o hose no ag eeing a all).
Again, he e ec s may accumula e when indi iduals sco e high on mo e han
one measu e o poli ical aliena ion. To illus a e he o e all e ec , we u n o he
speci ica ion wi h he combined measu e. Se ing poli ical aliena ion o 0 and 1,
espec i ely, we ob ain p edic ed alues o –2.2 and –0.1, wi h he la e no being
s a is ically di e en om 0. I we se poli ical aliena ion o i s 10 h, 50 h, and 90 h
pe cen ile alues, we ob ain p edic ed alues o –2.1, –1.6, and –0.9, espec i ely.
These esul s indica e ha he less (mo e) poli ically aliena ed indi iduals el be o e
he in asion, he mo e (less) hei a ing o Pu in de e io a ed a e he in asion.
S ill, e en mo e so han in he le el models, he ace s o poli ical aliena ion
seem o ma e o di e en deg ees. The e ec is clea ly la ges o lack o poli ical
us , as he pe haps mos ob ious and di ec exp ession o poli ical aliena ion. We
also ob ain a subs an ial e ec o conspi acy men ali y as an exp ession o ac i e
dis us in poli ical and socie al eli es. We eason ha hese wo a iables play
a pa icula ly i al ole in shaping how people upda ed hei iews o Pu in du ing
he wa because hey in luence mos s ongly whe he ci izens align wi h and a e
swayed by mains eam messages conce ning he e en s, as well as hei openness
o belie e coun e na a i es. Al hough he same could be said abou aliena ion om
public discou se, i s smalle e ec may e lec ha his measu e is based on jus
a single i em and co ela es subs an ially wi h lack o poli ical us and conspi acy
men ali y.8In con as , he absen e ec o lack o suppo o democ acy in he
change model seems o indeed indica e ha di use suppo o democ acy was no
pa icula ly ele an o how indi iduals upda ed hei iews o Pu in in ligh o he
Russian in asion. Howe e , low suppo o democ acy had al eady been s ongly
7Because he s a is ical model ea s upwa d and downwa d changes symme ically and iden i ies he e -
ec s o in e es om bo h, his dis inc ion is i ele an o he s a is ical model and pu ely a ma e o
con enience o he in e p e a ion. When we elax he symme y assump ion and es ima e sepa a e mod-
els o upwa d and downwa d changes in a ings o Pu in, we ind he e ec s o be la gely symme ical
(see Online Appendix G). In pa icula , lack o poli ical us and conspi acy men ali y bo h dec ease he
endency o downwa d adjus men s and inc ease he endency o upwa d adjus men s. The same holds
o aliena ion om public discou se, bu he e ec is ma ginally s a is ically signi ican (p= 0.07) only o
dec easing downwa d adjus men .
8When we omi he o he h ee ace s o poli ical aliena ion, a la ge e ec (= 0.67, wi h p< 0.001) is
a ibu ed o aliena ion om public discou se. I we do he same wi h lack o suppo o democ acy, i s
e ec emains a he small (= 0.25, wi h p= 0.084).
K
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public: A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion? 685
associa ed wi h mo e posi i e a ings o he au oc a Pu in be o e he in asion and,
gi en pe sis ence in a ings o Pu in, con inues o be hus associa ed he ea e
(Fig. 4).
O e all, hough, we can conclude ha poli ical aliena ion be o e he in asion is
s ongly p edic i e o how iews owa d Pu in e ol ed in he wake o he Russian
in asion. In con as , ew o he a i udinal con ols a e p edic i e o change in a ings
o Pu in. The only s a is ically signi ican inding is ha he s onge he p e e ence
o mul ila e alism o e unila e alism, he la ge he downwa d adjus men in he
a ing o Pu in.
Again, we conduc ed se e al obus ness checks. Fi s , we in oduced pa y
iden i ica ion, measu ed p ein asion, as an addi ional con ol a iable (Online Ap-
pendix E). We ind ha iden i ying wi h he A D is associa ed wi h a less nega i e
change in a ings o Pu in by abou 0.7 scale poin s, likely as a eac ion o he cues
sen ou by he pa y (see A zheime 2023). Mos impo an , howe e , ou main
esul s emain simila , sugges ing ha indi iduals upda ed hei iews mainly in
esponse o hei own eelings o poli ical aliena ion and no jus in esponse o
pa y cues. Second, we looked a change in a ings o Russia ins ead (Online Ap-
pendix D). The esul s a e simila , al hough in his case all ou aliena ion measu es
a e s a is ically signi ican ly associa ed wi h mo e posi i e (less nega i e) changes
in a ings. Thi d, we s udied change in a ings o Pu in o he ea lie pos in asion
wa es (Online Appendix F). Again he esul s a e simila , al hough he e ec s end
o ge sligh ly weake he less ime we gi e o opinion upda ing o ake place.
6Conclusion
E e since Vladimi Pu in’s decision o launch a ull-scale in asion o Uk aine in
Feb ua y o 2022 he e has been conside able public in e es in he ques ion o why
a he e ogeneous mino i y o Ge mans con inued o oice unde s anding o e en
sympa hies o he Pu in egime. In his s udy, we ha e p oposed an answe ha
cen e s on he ole o poli ical aliena ion, a guing ha ci izens who a e aliena ed
om he Ge man poli ical sys em, om democ acy i sel , and om public discou se
and who a e inclined o belie e in conspi acy heo ies a e mos likely o (s ill) hold
sympa he ic iews owa d Pu in and his egime. Theo e ically, we ha e g ounded
ou a gumen in balance heo y, p oposing ha a simple mechanism o cogni i e
dissonance educ ion acco ding o which an enemy o an enemy is a iend can ac-
coun o why poli ically aliena ed ci izens sympa hize wi h Pu in—and nonaliena ed
indi iduals dislike Pu in.
D awing on he GLES Panel ha b acke s Russia’s ull-scale in asion o Feb ua y
2022, we ha e p o ided empi ical e idence in line wi h ou expec a ion om wo
se s o longi udinal analyses. Fi s , we ha e linked poli ical aliena ion measu ed
be o e he in asion o pos in asion a ings o Pu in and ha e shown, in line wi h ou
hypo heses, ha all ou ace s a e signi ican ly p edic i e o mo e posi i e a ings.
Second, we ha e es ed whe he poli ical aliena ion measu ed be o e he in asion
also p edic s how a ings o Pu in changed du ing he Russian in asion, expec ing
ha poli ically aliena ed indi iduals saw less eason o adjus hei iews o Pu in
K
686 L. Ho elle , N. D. S eine
downwa d—o ha some e en saw easons o an upwa d adjus men . He e, we
ound h ee o he ace s o poli ical aliena ion o be signi ican ly associa ed wi h
smalle downwa d (o la ge upwa d) adjus men s in a ings o Pu in: Those aliena ed
om public discou se, lacking in poli ical us , and ha ing a conspi acy men ali y
we e less likely o adjus hei a ing o Pu in signi ican ly downwa d, wi h he la e
wo a iables playing a bigge ole. We also showed ha ou indings ex end o
a i udes owa d he Russian egime as a whole and hold o se e al o he obus ness
checks. O e all, ou esul s comp ehensi ely poin o poli ical aliena ion as one
impo an mo i e o why Ge man ci izens (s ill) sympa hize wi h Pu in.
Despi e his signi icance, ou s udy is no wi hou limi a ions and may be ex ended
in se e al ways. Mos impo an , we ha e ocused on ou cen al ace s o poli ical
aliena ion ha we suspec ed o be especially consequen ial gi en e idence om e-
la ed esea ch, bu he e may be o he s ha also ma e . These may be conside ed
in u u e esea ch. A some poin , hough, i becomes di icul o disen angle he
sepa a e impac o di e en ace s o poli ical aliena ion gi en hei empi ical in e -
ela ion and ha simila mechanisms a e likely o apply o hem. Al hough we could
es ablish dis inc e ec s o a lack o poli ical us and conspi acy men ali y he e,
o example, i dese es again o be no ed ha hese a i udes end o go oge he
( = 0.47 in ou s udy) and ha we ob ained he s onges esul s when condensing
all ou ace s in o one comp ehensi e measu e o poli ical aliena ion. In ou iew,
he mos impo an ollow-up ques ions a e whe he and how ou a gumen and ind-
ings a el o o he con ex s. The e o e, we especially encou age u u e esea ch o
p obe ou a gumen in o he na ional con ex s o on a i udes owa d o he au oc a ic
egimes and hei leade s.
Fo now, ou esul s es ablish a link be ween poli ical aliena ion and sympa hy
o an au oc a ic leade ab oad. The aliena ion p e alen in some segmen s o he
Ge man popula ion seems o a ec no only a i udes immedia ely ela ed o na ional
poli ical ma e s bu poli ical wo ld iews ha go beyond he na ional a ena. As he
con lic be ween he Pu in egime and he democ a ic wo ld con inues, al eady alien-
a ed indi iduals sympa hizing wi h Pu in and his egime could become inc easingly
discon en and de ached om mains eam poli ics. Mo e b oadly, his could add o
exis ing pola iza ion, no only on issues speci ically pe aining o Russia bu on po-
li ical ma e s mo e gene ally. This possibili y seems especially ele an agains he
backd op o inc easing a emp s by Russia and o he au oc a ic powe s o in luence
p ecisely hese aliena ed segmen s o he popula ion in democ acies, making use o
disin o ma ion and na a i es speci ically ailo ed o a ge exis ing eelings o alien-
a ion. Sympa hies owa d he Russian egime migh well make a ge ed segmen s o
he popula ion e en mo e suscep ible o in luence by hese a emp s (Soa es e al.
2023). The esul s o his s udy indica e ha dealing wi h his global challenge is
one o many good easons o be e unde s and and add ess ising poli ical aliena ion
a home.
Supplemen a y In o ma ion The Supplemen a y Appendix p o ides u he in o ma ion on he su ey
ins umen s used as well as addi ional esul s ( e e ed o in he main a icle): h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/
s11615-024-00541-2. Rep oduc ion ma e ials o all esul s epo ed in his a icle a e a ailable a Ha a d
Da a e se: h ps://doi.o g/10.7910/DVN/UV4KOM.
K
Sympa hies o Pu in Wi hin he Ge man Public: A Consequence o Poli ical Aliena ion? 687
Acknowledgemen s Pa s o his a icle build on Ho elle ’s mas e ’s hesis w i en unde S eine ’s su-
pe ision, a ailable a h ps://doi.o g/10.25358/openscience-8518. We hank S en Hillen, Ma hias Made ,
and A min Schä e , pa icipan s o he Colloquium on Compa a i e Poli ics a JGU Mainz, as well as ou
wo anonymous e iewe s o help ul commen s on p e ious e sions o his manusc ip .
Funding No unding was ecei ed o assis wi h he p epa a ion o his manusc ip .
Funding Open Access unding enabled and o ganized by P ojek DEAL.
Con lic o in e es L. Ho elle and N.D. S eine decla e ha hey ha e no compe ing in e es s.
Open Access This a icle is licensed unde a C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License,
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