Moo e, Wins on; Pascal, S ephanie
A icle
The de e minan s o job losses due o he COVID-19
pandemic in small Island de eloping s a es
Cogen Economics & Finance
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Taylo & F ancis G oup
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Moo e, Wins on; Pascal, S ephanie (2024) : The de e minan s o job losses due
o he COVID-19 pandemic in small Island de eloping s a es, Cogen Economics & Finance, ISSN
2332-2039, Taylo & F ancis, Abingdon, Vol. 12, Iss. 1, pp. 1-14,
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The de e minan s o job losses due o he
COVID-19 pandemic in small Island de eloping
s a es
Wins on Moo e & S ephanie Pascal
To ci e his a icle: Wins on Moo e & S ephanie Pascal (2024) The de e minan s o job losses
due o he COVID-19 pandemic in small Island de eloping s a es, Cogen Economics & Finance,
12:1, 2316333, DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2024.2316333
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GENERAL & APPLIED ECONOMICS | RESEARCH ARTICLE
The de e minan s o job losses due o he COVID-19 pandemic in
small Island de eloping s a es
Wins on Moo e
a
and S ephanie Pascal
b
a
Depa men o Economics, The Uni e si y o he Wes Indies, B idge own, Ba bados;
b
Resea ch and Economic Analysis
Depa men , The Cen al Bank o Ba bados, B idge own, Ba bados
ABSTRACT
This pape in es iga es he de e minan s o job losses due o he COVID-19 in he
small island de eloping s a es o he Ca ibbean. U ilising a su ey o 1979 i ms in he
Ca ibbean and a p obi eg ession model, he s udy iden i ies he key ac o s ha
migh lead a i m o e ench s a . Two o he mos impo an ac o s ha impac ed
on job losses we e he ease o doing business and inno a ion. In es ing in he ease
o doing business wi hin he Ca ibbean he e o e seems o be no only an economic
good, bu a social bene i as well. The indings o he s udy also suppo ano he use
o inno a ion: as a esponse o c ises.
IMPACT STATEMENT
This s udy iden i ies he key ac o s in luencing job losses in Ca ibbean small island
de eloping s a es du ing COVID-19. I unde sco es he impo ance o s a egic in es -
men s in he business en i onmen o bo h economic and social bene i s. The ind-
ings also highligh he ole o inno a ion as a i al esponse o c ises, emphasizing i s
capaci y o mi iga e job losses and enhance esilience.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Recei ed 13 Janua y 2023
Re ised 29 Sep embe 2023
Accep ed 28 Janua y 2024
KEYWORDS
COVID-19; unemploymen ;
labou ma ke ;Ca ibbean
JEL CODES
J21; C25; O31; L52
REVIEWING EDITOR
Robe Read, Uni e si y o
he Wes Indies, Ba bados
SUBJECTS
Economics and
De elopmen ; Economics;
Indus y & Indus ial S udies
1. In oduc ion
The co ona i us disease 2019 (COVID-19) ha o igina ed in Wuhan, China in Decembe 2019 was o i-
cially decla ed a global pandemic by he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (WHO) on Ma ch 11
h
2020 (Wo ld
Heal h O ganiza ion, 2021). As o July 19, 2021, app oxima ely 180 million pe sons had con ac ed he
i us while 4.08 million succumbed o he disease. Coupled wi h he di ec nega i e impac on human
li e and heal h, COVID-19 has also had nega i e ex e nali ies on all ace s o li e, pa icula ly he
economy.
The economic impac o COVID-19 has been pa icula ly el wi hin he labou ma ke in mos coun-
ies. The Wo ld Bank (2021) es ima ed ha in 2020, los wo king hou s we e equi alen o 255 million
ull ime jobs, o app oxima ely ou imes he losses du ing he 2009 global inancial c isis. The ou come
in 2021 was qui e simila . The In e na ional Labou O ganisa ion (2021) es ima ed ha global wo king
hou s we e 4.3 pe cen below p e-pandemic le els, he equi alen o 125 million ull- ime jobs.
The impac on he labou ma ke in he Ca ibbean has been qui e se e e as well. Ga a i o e al.
(2020) conduc ed a su ey o Ba badian households in he immedia e a e ma h o he COVID-19 pan-
demic and epo ed ha be ween Janua y and Ap il 2020 an es ima ed 46.3 pe cen o wo ke s epo ed
ha hey los hei jobs. These job losses we e pa icula ly p e alen in low-income households (mo e
han hal o all job losses) and women (one ou o e e y h ee pe sons who los hei job was emale).
Mos job losses we e pe sons who p e iously wo ked in ou ism, accommoda ion and ood se ices
CONTACT Wins on Moo e [email p o ec ed] The Uni e si y o he Wes Indies, Ca e Hill Campus, B idge own
BB11000, Ba bados
ß2024 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma UK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup
This is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/), which
pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed. The e ms on which his a icle has been
published allow he pos ing o he Accep ed Manusc ip in a eposi o y by he au ho (s) o wi h hei consen .
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE
2024, VOL. 12, NO. 1, 2316333
h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/23322039.2024.2316333
sec o , wholesale and e ail ade, as well as cons uc ion. These job losses magni ied al eady exis ing
ulne abili ies in ela ion o po e y.
One o he sho comings o hese p elimina y assessmen s is ha hey migh no be ep esen a i e o
he ue pic u e in he economy and he esponses om wo ke s canno be ma ched wi h i m le el
da a o see wha o he measu es i ms we e employing o educe job losses. This pape u ilises a unique
da abase om Compe e Ca ibbean (2021), who conduc ed a su ey o Ca ibbean i ms o e alua e he
impac o COVID-19 on hei ope a ions. This s udy seeks o assess he de e minan s o COVID-19 job
losses a he i m le el. An unde s anding o why i ms educe hei labou o ce du ing a c isis can help
o iden i y po en ial policy esponses o assis bo h households and i ms. The esul s could also be use-
ul as a means o documen ing he impac o COVID-19 in he ace o simila shocks ha migh occu in
he u u e.
The sec o al composi ion o GDP in Ca ibbean coun ies a ies ac oss he egion, bu he e a e some
common ends. One signi ican sec o is ou ism, which plays a c ucial ole in he economies o many
Ca ibbean na ions. Tou ism con ibu es a subs an ial po ion o GDP in coun ies like he Bahamas,
Jamaica, and Ba bados. These coun ies hea ily ely on ou ism- ela ed ac i i ies, such as ho els, es au-
an s, anspo a ion se ices, and ec ea ional ac i i ies, o d i e economic g ow h. The Wo ld Bank’s
Wo ld De elopmen Indica o s da abase p o ides s a is ics ha indica e se ices alue added (% o GDP)
was, on a e age, 63 pe cen o GDP in Ca ibbean Small S a es in 2020.
This concen a ion in se ices is la gely due o he small size o Ca ibbean s a es. The size o a
Ca ibbean s a e can impac i s abili y o di e si y i s economy and a ac o eign in es men (A ms ong
& Read, 2003). La ge coun ies like Jamaica ha e a mo e di e se economic base and can le e age hei
size o es ablish indus ies such as manu ac u ing and se ices. On he o he hand, smalle coun ies
such as G enada o S . Ki s and Ne is o en ace limi a ions in e ms o esou ces, in as uc u e, and
ma ke size, making i mo e di icul o hem o achie e economic di e si ica ion and compe e globally.
The s udy makes h ee main con ibu ions o he li e a u e. Fi s , he pape p o ides es ima es o he
labou ma ke impac o COVID-19 in a g oup o small island de eloping s a es. Second, using econo-
me ic echniques, he au ho s in es iga e he ac o s ha migh esul in i ms educing employmen
du ing a c isis and builds on he wo k o Kuju and Goswami (2022). Thi d and inally, he au ho s assess
he ex en o which inno a ion and he ease o doing business by i ms has been used o minimize job
losses.
O e all, his s udy comp omises o i e sec ions. Following an in oduc ion, he nex sec ion o he
s udy, sec ion 2, summa ises he li e a u e on he labou ma ke impac o c ises. Sec ion 3 ou lines he
me hodological app oach used while sec ion 4 p esen s he esul s and discusses he implica ions.
Sec ion 5 concludes wi h a summa y o he indings and po en ial policy ecommenda ions.
2. Li e a u e e iew
The COVID-19 pandemic has had widesp ead e ec s on labou ma ke s. The In e na ional Labou
O ganiza ion (ILO) asse s ha he pandemic has impac ed labou ma ke s in h ee key dimensions: 1)
quan i y o jobs 2) quali y o wo k; and 3) e ec s on ulne able g oups (Uni ed Na ions Sus ainable
De elopmen G oup, 2020). D awing pa allels o he HIV/AIDS and Ebola pandemics, he e ha e been
signi ican declines in p oduc i i y due o he loss o wo ke s and wo kdays caused by ba ling he in ec-
ion as well as he demands o ca ing (F anklyn, 2002) while he economic down u n will be el by
e e yone, no simply hose di ec ly a ec ed (Wo ld Bank, 2014).
2.1. Main sec o s nega i ely impac ed
The Uni ed Na ions Economic Commission o La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean (UN ECLAC) highligh s in
i s COVID-19 Special Repo (ECLAC, 2020) ha he impac o he i us is mo e ca as ophic on sec o s o
he economy whe e ope a ions a e dependen on assemblage. This was due o he employmen o non-
pha maceu ical in e en ions (NPIs) used in he absence o a accine o limi he sp ead o he i us.
NPIs employed in Ba bados du ing his pandemic include bu we e no limi ed o social dis ancing p ac-
ices, shu down o all non-essen ial se ices, p ohibi ing o la ge ga he ings, closu e o schools and po s
2 W. MOORE AND S. PASCAL
as well as he implemen a ion o a cu ew. These s a egies, while necessa y o con ol he con agion,
ha e signi ican ly impac ed se e al indus ies. Those indus ies se e ely impac ed include ou ism se -
ices, ho els and es au an , anspo , and comme ce. Mos o hese indus ies a e majo con ibu o s o
economic ac i i y in Ba bados and accoun o a signi ican po ion o annual GDP (Howa d, 2000;
Wo ell, 2017; Al a ez, 2020).
Mo eo e , bo h he UN ECLAC and he ILO epo ha his pandemic is a ec ing bo h supply and
demand. NPIs a e dis up ing se e al supply chains, impeding p oduc ion p ocesses wo ldwide (Uni ed
Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen G oup, 2020; Guan e al., 2020; ECLAC, 2020). Con e sely, he impac s
in he economy a e changing ypical demand pa e ns due o he e ec s on consume s’wages as well
as hei p e e ences. The comme ce and e ail indus ies ha e and will con inue o s uggle immensely
since p e e ences a e mo e ailo ed a ound essen ial se ices.
While he li e a u e has iden i ied he sec o s conside ably hampe ed by he pandemic, li le men ion
is made o sec o s ha h i ed ou side o he p o o ypical sec o s. Ne e heless, he e has been a su ge
du ing in ec ious pandemics o heal h and cleaning- ela ed indus ies. The e has been a no iceable
boom in cleaning, akeou , and deli e y se ices (Lemieux e al., 2020; ECLAC, 2020; Da e e al., 2021). In
he US, he sale o hand sani ize s inc eased 80.7% and 57.9% in d ug s o es and con enience s o es
espec i ely, du ing he week o Feb ua y 23
d
2020, as a esponse o he ou b eak o COVID-19
(Sabanoglu, 2020) while hazma sui sales inc eased signi ican ly du ing he Ebola ou b eak in 2014
(P ie e , 2014).
2.2. COVID-19 and echnological ad ances
C ises, while ca as ophic and de imen al in na u e, may expedi e he de elopmen and adop ion o
se e al key p ocesses in i s wake. Such p ocesses a e ypically employed as a means o amelio a ing he
si ua ion and may c ea e posi i e ex e nali ies. While a conside able numbe o indus ies we e signi i-
can ly impac ed, he li e a u e sugges s ha se e al businesses ha e bene i ed, such as in o ma ion and
communica ions echnology (de Ve e al., 2021; Ma ga o, 2021; A o a, 2020).
Wi h he limi a ions o ace- o- ace in e ac ions, he con inui y o mos jobs was only main ained
using ICTs. Azua a He e a e al. (2020) a gue ha he pandemic compelled he labou o ce o La in
Ame ican and Ca ibbean coun ies o adop elewo king, dis ance aining and on-demand digi al pla -
o ms, some hing hey we e eluc an o do p io o he COVID-19 pandemic. These echnologies will
p oduce ne -posi i e ex e nali ies on he labou ma ke , bu implemen a ion will make se e al jobs obso-
le e, esul ing in inc eased unemploymen (Azua a He e a e al., 2020).
Mos o he li e a u e on La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean has been ex apola ed om La in
Ame ican coun ies such as B azil. The Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (WHO) epo s B azil as he coun y
wi h he hi d highes numbe o con i med cases (Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion, 2021). As o July 12,
2021, B azil eco ded 9,164 co ona i us cases pe 100,000 popula ion compa ed o Ba bados’1467 cases.
Consequen ly, he impac s desc ibed may be el o a ying deg ees.
2.3. Types o wo ke s likely o be mos a ec ed by he COVID-19 pandemic
His o ical epo s o o he pandemics as well as ini ial co ona i us pandemic epo s indica e ha wo k-
e s om low skilled and low-income g oups su e he mos (Bo an e al., 2020; Uni ed Na ions
Sus ainable De elopmen G oup, 2020; ECLAC, 2020). Al a ez e al. (2021) con i ms and inds a posi i e
co ela ion be ween emo e wo king and specialized skill occupa ions.
The Wo ld Bank (2019) inds ha he majo i y o he labou o ce o de eloping na ions a e ca ego-
ized wi hin he in o mal economy wi h ‘li le access o echnology’, s aying in low-p oduc i e employ-
men . Mic o, small and medium-sized en e p ises (MSMEs), he e o e, will be he mos un a ou ably
impac ed (ECLAC, 2020). This si ua ion is likely o be magni ied in Ba bados due o labou ma ke igidi-
ies (Coppin, 2006; A chibald e al., 2005; C aigwell & Wa ne , 2000; Unemploymen in Ba bados: 1980-
1996, 2000).
Du ing epidemics and pandemics women a e also likely o be disp opo iona ely a ec ed ela i e o
men. Azua a He e a e al. (2020) p oposes ha he labou o ce o he mos ad e sely impac ed sec o s
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 3
and business ypes – endo s and small business owne s –a e comp ised p edominan ly o women.
Alon e al. (2020) iden i ies he inc ease in needs o child en du ing he pandemic and a woman’s na -
u al ole as ca e ake s as he main cause o hem being mo e impac ed compa ed o men. F anklyn
(2002) as well as Taub (2020) bo h a gue ha he ex ended ime spen a home also exace ba es domes-
ic abuse, pa icula ly among women. Vic ims end o su e emendous declines in p oduc i i y and
pe o mance ou pu (Oni-Ojo, 2014; Wa hen e al., 2015; Oli e , 2019).
Employees in lowe paying o low skilled occupa ions also a e mo e likely o ha e been impac ed by
he c isis. Co es and Fo sy he (2023) a gue ha he pandemic exace ba ed p e-exis ing inequali ies,
wi h lowe -paying occupa ions and indus ies being subs an ially a ec ed in he US. In addi ion, since
non-whi e wo ke s we e o e - ep esen ed in hese g oups, hey we e mo e a ec ed han whi e wo ke s.
Simila esul s a e epo ed by Khambule (2022) who ound ha in o mal wo ke s expe ienced highe
le els o unemploymen , po e y and ulne abili y. The au ho s a gued ha his was la gely due o he
lack o p oac i ely a ge ed and imely in e en ions o cushion hese wo ke s.
2.4. Job losses due o COVID-19
Figu e 1 showcases he esponses o i ms om CARICOM o he ques ion, “In he ad en o COVID-19,
did you i m inc ease, dec ease o kep cons an hei sha e o wo ke s?”. Se e al s a es inc eased hei
numbe o employees a e he ou b eak o COVID-19, de ying he expec ed ela ionship. S Vincen
ne e implemen ed cu ews o any s ingen lockdown p ocedu es (Jamaican Obse e , 2021) while S
Lucia was he i s Eas e n Ca ibbean Island o eco d 100% eco e ies and enjoyed ea ly success in he
igh agains COVID-19 (Tho on, 2020; The Voice, 2020), which aligned wi h he ime pe iod when he
su ey was being conduc ed, whe eby explaining he occu ence.
Su iname and Jamaica, howe e , bo h employed s ic physical dis ancing p o ocols. Ano he explan-
a ion o he unexpec ed ela ionship in some coun ies could be he use o inno a i e esponses o
COVID-19 (Table 1).
Ac oss CARICOM, 3.6% o i ms used inno a ion o mi iga e agains he impac s o COVID-19
(Table 1). The highes a ios we e in Su iname and Jamaica, he same coun ies ha expe ienced he
highes wo ke e en ion a ios du ing he COVID-19 c isis. Those Ba badian i ms ha expe ienced
he highes job losses did no in oduce any new goods o se ices. This sugges s he e is an in e se
ela ionship be ween wo ke e en ion and inno a ion as a esponse o COVID-19.
The li e a u e sugges s ha unskilled emales a e he mos ad e sely impac ed classi ica ion o wo k-
e s (Azua a He e a e al., 2020). While a ew membe s a es –Jamaica, The Bahamas, and Su iname –
abides by his ela ionship, he majo i y seemingly e u es his asse ion. The e we e no speci ic
ques ions gea ed owa ds skilled and unskilled male wo ke s in he su ey, hus in e ences abou male
wo ke s a e d awn by compa ing emale and o al equencies. None heless, he da a implies he
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
F equency
Inc ease Dec ease No Change
Figu e 1. Numbe o i ms epo ing a change in employmen as a esul o COVID-19 by coun y.
Sou ce: Compe e Ca ibbean (2021).
4 W. MOORE AND S. PASCAL
di e ences be ween men and women was negligible. This is su p ising conside ing ha women ypically
domina e he ha des hi indus ies i.e. ou ism, a el and ho el (Table 2).
One eason ha he e was li le o no no iceable changes in COVID-19 ela ed unskilled job losses
could be due o he inc eased need o cleaning and o he ela ed sc eening se ices. I appea s ha
hese wo ke s we e u ilised o asks such as cleaning, empe a u e checks and ela ed ac i i ies.
The pandemic had a g ea e impac on mino i ies and ela i ely low skilled wo ke s (Mon eno o,
e al., 2022). Using da a on he labou ma ke o he US, he decline in employmen was la gely d i en
by job losses among Hispanics, he you h and wo ke s wi h a high school diploma o some college. The
se ice indus ies o hose jobs ha equi e mo e pe sonal con ac and canno be pe o med emo ely.
Mon eno o e al. also a gue ha a ela i ely signi ican sha e o he job losses canno be explained by
acial, e hnic, age and educa ional s a ing poin s, sugges ing ha wo ke s may ha e encoun e ed di e -
en ial ea men in ela ion o bo h layo and ecall decisions.
The disp opo iona e impac o COVID-19 on mino i ies is also suppo ed by Dang and Nguyen using
a c oss coun y da abase. The au ho s used da a om na ionally ep esen a i e samples om China,
Sou h Ko ea, Japan, I aly, he Uni ed Kingdom and ou o he la ges US S a es (Cali o nia, Flo ida, New
Yo k and Texas). The au ho s epo ha no women we e 24 pe cen mo e likely o lose hei job pe -
manen ly as a esul o COVID-19. The au ho s a ibu e his esul o he highe p obabili y o women
wo king in se ice jobs ela i e o men, no ing ha his gap iis mo e han 10% in China and 20% in he
UK. This inding is also suppo ed by he esul ha emale job losses we e g ea e in coun ies wi h
highe in ec ion a es.
No only we e he job losses in ela i ely lowe skilled occupa ions la ge , he a e o eco e y in
hese a eas was also slowe as well. Mamgain (2021) es ima es ha du ing he ini ial lockdowns associ-
a ed wi h COVID-19 app oxima ely 31 pe cen o he employed labou o ce los hei jobs. These job
losses we e mo e likely o be among emales, small ade s, mig an wo ke s, daily wage labou e s and
Table 1. Numbe o i ms using inno a ion as a esponse o COVID-19.
Coun y Yes No To al
An igua and Ba buda 5 145 150
Ba bados 0 170 170
Belize 2 155 157
Dominica 2 135 137
G enada 5 119 124
Guyana 6 149 155
Jamaica 10 162 172
S Ki s and Ne is 2 128 130
S Lucia 5 147 152
S Vincen 4 129 133
Su iname 14 148 162
The Bahamas 8 149 157
T inidad and Tobago 8 172 180
To al 71 1908 1979
Sou ce: Compe e Ca ibbean (2021).
Table 2. Changes in employmen by skill and gende .
Female Skilled To al Skilled Female Unskilled To al Unskilled
Coun y þ–¼þ–¼þ –¼þ–¼
An igua & Ba buda 2 11 39 6 15 38 0 11 30 1 19 30
Ba bados 1 25 54 1 52 48 0 19 21 1 22 51
Belize 7 30 57 5 41 33 0 13 24 1 18 51
Dominica 3 23 55 9 39 43 0 15 20 0 30 39
G enada 2 14 45 3 26 40 0 10 26 1 18 36
Guyana 2 15 50 3 19 36 0 3 30 4 25 35
Jamaica 6 5 53 22 9 53 2 9 34 1 12 41
S Ki s & Ne is 4 25 54 5 39 37 1 11 21 2 16 47
S Lucia 3 9 1 7 24 41 1 13 23 3 18 32
S Vincen 7 6 50 25 18 54 3 14 24 7 37 23
Su iname 6 4 53 15 13 50 1 6 31 4 21 34
The Bahamas 5 4 57 25 17 61 2 11 28 2 43 25
T inidad & Tobago 2 24 66 7 39 51 1 12 31 2 22 53
þmeans inc ease, - means dec ease and ¼means no change.
Sou ce: Compe e Ca ibbean (2021).
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 5
he you h. E en hough some o he jobs losses we e egained a he ail-end o he pandemic man, he
gains we e e y slow o he ca ego ies o wo ke s men ioned ea lie . As a esul , he au ho s ecom-
mended he ex ension o employmen secu i y o poo u ban households as well as eskilling o he
labou o ce.
3. Empi ical me hodology
The p elimina y e iew o he su ey da a sugges s ha COVID-19 impac ed on employmen in he
Ca ibbean. The se e i y o his impac , howe e , a ied by indus y, and o some deg ee he esponse
by i ms o he c isis (e.g., inno a i e ac i i ies). The me hodology ou lined in his sec ion o he pape
he e o e a emp s o iden i y he main de e minan s o job losses a he i m le el. Unde s anding why
i ms migh choose o shed labou du ing a c isis is impo an as employmen has links o issues such as
po e y and educed pu chasing powe . An unde s anding o i m beha iou du ing a c isis can also
help policymake s de elop use ul in e en ions a bo h he i m and household le el.
This esea ch employs he Inno a i e –Fi m Pe o mance –Gende (IFPG): Issues in En e p ises in he
Ca ibbean (Compe e Ca ibbean, 2021) da abase o assess he labou ma ke impac o COVID-19. The
su ey was designed and conduc ed by E ude Economique Conseil (EEC Canada) on behal o Compe e
Ca ibbean a he In e -Ame ican De elopmen Bank. All 1979 esponden s we e i ms and business
selec ed ac oss he 13 CARICOM membe s a es, se ing as a coun y-wide ep esen a i e sample. The
da abase was made assessable by he Compe e Ca ibbean Pa ne ship Facili y (CCPF) o p o ide cu en
and compa able da a on he egion’s p i a e sec o as i ela es o he su ey-en i led issues o gende ,
p oduc i i y, and inno a ion as well as he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic. Responden s’pa icipa ion
was ully olun a y h ough which hey could ei he e u e pa icula ques ions o he su ey in i s en i -
e y. The da abase is a ailable om he au ho s upon eques .
Coupled wi h he IFPG da abase, da a p o ided by he Cen al Bank o Ba bados as well as Ba bados’
S a is ical O ice was also used. The main aim o his empi ical esea ch is o assess he impac o he
COVID-19 pandemic on he labou ma ke and explain why some i ms would ha e epo ed g ea e job
losses han o he s. The P obi eg ession model es ima ed is:
Co id Employmen Lossesi¼b0þXk
j¼1dkXki þui(1)
whe e he dependen a iable ep esen s he nega i e impac o COVID-19 on employmen . A p obi
model was selec ed by assigning by a alue o 1 o i ms who op ed o dec ease hei sha e o wo ke s
and 0 o i ms who ei he inc eased o kep cons an he o al numbe o employees. The P obi model
is app op ia e in scena ios whe e he dependen a iable akes only wo possible ou comes: job losses
o no job losses. I assumes ha he ela ionship be ween he independen a iables and he dependen
a iable is nonlinea and ollows a cumula i e no mal dis ibu ion.
The se o independen a iables, ep esen ed by i s sum (Pk
j¼1dkXkiÞ, a e used o explain he deci-
sion o i ms o educe hei labou o ce as a esul o he pandemic. These we e i m size, sec o ,
inno a i e s a egies employed, i s classi ica ion as essen ial o non-essen ial, he op h ee obs acles
hey aced due o he ad en o he global pandemic and he age o he ins i u ion. Fac o s ha a e
expec ed o sha e a nega i e co ela ion wi h employmen include he size and age o he i m and he
implemen a ion o inno a i e ea u es.
Fi m size is an impo an a iable ha will de e mine he se e i y o he impac o he co ona i us. I
is expec ed ha smalle i ms will be mo e ad e sely impac ed by he pandemic (ECLAC, 2020; Uni ed
Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen G oup, 2020; Al a ez, 2020) due o hei limi ed esou ces, poo c isis
managemen (Runyan, 2006) and he hind ances o de elopmen . The legal s a us o i m alludes o he
size o he ins i u ion. The esponden s we e able o choose om one o six op ions: he smalles being
sole p op ie o ship and limi ed pa ne ship o he la ges being sha eholding company wi h sha es ade
in he s ock ma ke and sha eholding company wi h non- aded sha es o sha es aded p i a ely.
P e ious s udies con i m he e exis s a posi i e ela ionship be ween he age o a i m and i s pe o m-
ance in ime o c ises (Lee e al., 2017). A chibugi e al. (2013) concludes ha bo h size and age a e key
6 W. MOORE AND S. PASCAL
de e minan s o s a egic esponses o c ises. Smalle and younge i ms a e mo e inclined o ocus on
inno a ion while la ge and mo e expe ienced i ms will end o cos -minimizing s a egies.
Ano he con ol a iable used in he eg ession model is inno a ion. The IFPG ques ionnai e no es
ha inno a ion can be de i ed in a mul iplici y o ways. I can occu due o he in oduc ion o new o
imp o ed goods, se ices, business p ocesses, ma ke ing s a egies, dis ibu ion p ocess and o ganiza-
ional s uc u e. The UN Inno a ion Ne wo k (2020) es ablishes ha o mos i ms employing inno a i e
s a egies we e a means o hei su i al pa icula ly due o he many p oduc ion dis up ions ha
would ha e a ec ed global supply chains.
In 2016, he Pan Ame ican Heal h O ganiza ion (PAHO) de ined essen ial se ices as ac i i ies neces-
sa y o main ain he heal h, wel a e and unc ioning o a municipali y and goes on o lis speci ic s a u-
o y bodies, ood p o ide s and heal h ca e p o ide s amongs o he s as examples. They u he explain
ha non-essen ial se ices a e hose ha a e likely o be closed du ing a pandemic, as hey a e no
necessa y o he municipali y’s su i al. Ba bados –simila o mos na ions –has gi en p ecedence o
he con inua ion o essen ial se ices while being exceeding s ingen wi h he ope a ions o non-essen-
ial ones. Consequen ly, i is impe a i e o ac o his a iable in o he o e all impac o he pandemic
whe eby expec ing essen ial businesses o expe ience gains and non-essen ial ones o su e losses.
Beyond he classi ica ion o non-essen ial and essen ial se ices, he ype o sec o would also a ec
he o e all ajec o y o he labou ma ke and he economy. En e p ises whose ac i i ies depend hea ily
on physical in e ac ion will su e exponen ially (ECLAC, 2020) compa ed o hose which a e mo e lex-
ible in na u e.
The e a e a numbe o al e na i e app oaches ha could ha e been used ins ead o he one ou lined
abo e. These al e na i e app oaches a e g ouped unde h ee b oad a eas: 1. ime se ies; 2. quali a i e;
and, 3. i m pe cep ion s udies. Ins ead o he mic oeconomic app oach pu sued in his s udy, o he
s udies ha e u ilised a mac oeconomic da a o es ima e he impac o COVID-19 on job losses. Such an
app oach would in ol e es ima ing an employmen equa ion, es ima ed using a VAR app oach, and aug-
men ing his equa ion wi h a COVID-19 dummy a iable. The ad an age o his app oach is ha i is
ela i ely simple o implemen , as he coe icien on he dummy a iable would show he shi in he
employmen equa ion ha would ha e esul ed om he pandemic. The sho comings, howe e , a e
nume ous. These include he lack o long employmen se ies o he Ca ibbean, unce ain y ega ding
he app op ia e s a and end da es o he COVID-19 pandemic in he Ca ibbean, and he di icul y o
a ibu ing any shi in he employmen unc ion only o COVID-19. Ano he al e na i e o he app oach
used in his s udy would be use a quali a i e app oach h ough ei he in e iews o ocus g oups. Such
an app oach is use ul o p o ide a deep di e in o a p oblem, bu i would no ha e been inancially
easible o he au ho s o u iilise such an app oach o co e all he coun ies and i ms u ilised in his
s udy. Ano he app oach ha could ha e been u ilised is o use i m pe cep ions o he impac ha
COVID-19 had on employmen wi hin hei business. The ad an age o his app oach is ha i p o ides
a di ec es ima e o lay-o s ha migh ha e occu ed due o he pandemic, bu like he quali a i e
app oach i is di icul o disen angle he e ec s o COVID-19 om o he ac o s ha migh be in luenc-
ing i m sales and hei p opensi y o shed labou .
4. Resul s
4.1. Econome ic indings
The desc ip i e s a is ics p o ided in he p e ious sec ion gi e a good pic u e o he job losses ha
occu ed in he Ca ibbean in he wake o COVID-19, hey do no explain why some i ms decided o
educe hei labou o ce and o he s did no . The s udy he e o e es ima es a bina y choice model o he
decision o educe labou , es ima ed using a P obi model and he esul s a e p o ided in Table 3. The
model’s LR s a is ic is s a is ically signi ican , indica ing ha he coe icien s in he model canno all be
se o ze o and he e o e p o ide some addi ional e idence beyond jus a model wi h an in e cep . The
Pseudo R-squa ed o he model is 0.207, which gi en he use o mic o-econome ic da a sugges s ha
he model does ha e easonable p edic i e abili ies. This is u he suppo ed by he ROC cu e p o ided
in Figu e 2. This p o ides an assessmen o he abili y o he model o dis inguish be ween ue signals
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